10-12-14

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::clap::

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PhillyGodfather

Bills +3
Dallas +8
Giants +3

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Trev Rogers

Carolina/ Cincinnati UNDER 44

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BEN BURNS

BREAKFAST CLUB Jets

10* BLUE CHIP Super Total! Gbay/miami under

*VERY EARLY* Burns' Customer Appreciation Total! Carolina/Cincinnati under

10* BEST BET! Oakland

Divisional GOM Philadelphia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

20* Pittsburgh +2
10* Buffalo+3
10* NFL 6pt. teaser Houston /Pittsburg

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5

Bears+3 Agree
Bengals -6.5 Disagreement
Giants +3 Agree
Dolphins +3.5 agree
Chargers -7 disagree

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary NFL Pick for October 12th, 2014

Game: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Time: Sunday 10/12 8:30 PM Eastern
Pick: New York +3 (-115) at bovada (http://www.bovada.lv/)

The Eagles have sure had some strange games this season. They opened with Jacksonville and fell down 17-0 at the half before running off 34 unanswered points for an easy win. They rallied from a 7-point fourth quarter deficit to beat Indianapolis in week two. Then they came back from a 10-point deficit to Washington in week three, took a 10-point lead, then had to hang on for the win by 3. They blew an 11-point lead in San Francisco in week four, never scoring an offensive TD. Finally last week the Eagles were up 34-7 against St. Louis but 13 minutes later it was 34-28, and they had to hang on for their life. This team is not as good as their record indicates, and here is why. They are 4-1, but have been out-gained by four different opponents by 114 yards or more. LeSean McCoy looks average at best and Nick Foles has come back down to earth after last season. The Giants are coming around now, and Eli Manning has had three straight weeks with a passer rating over 100, and has thrown eight TDs to just one INT in the three games. Sure Rashad Jennings is out this game but in steps Andre Williams who has 131 yards and two touchdowns the past two games. The Giants are the better team at this point of the season. Sure Philadelphia has the gaudy record and the fun offense, but there level of play has been spotty at best. Without a ridiculous seven TDs from their defense and special teams, the Eagles would have had trouble finding the win column this year. They pay for it in this one. Back the G-Men.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club NFL Selections:
270 Oakland +7.5
257 Chicago +3
259 Green Bay -3
265 New England -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

gilztips

• [277] 49ers -3 (-125) = [2U] • [267] Ravens -3 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSIGHTS

10/12 1:00 PM 266 Play on BUF Under 45-110
10/12 8:30 PM 276 Play on PHI -3+105
10/12 8:30 PM 276 Play on PHI Under 51-110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack


#253 PITTSBURGH +3 (SENT TUESDAY)
#254 cleveland OVER 46.5
#275 NY GIANTS +3

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THE GOLD SHEET'S GARY OLSHAN
TODAY'S PLAYS FROM THE TOP HANDICAPPERS FROM THE OLDEST AND MOST RESPECTED
SPORTS ADVISORY COMPANY IN THE WORLD!
Updated 10/11/14 at 11:45 AM
GARY OLSHAN’S RELEASES FOR SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12
NFL :
PITTSBURGH (+2) over Cleveland –home 10:00 AM
Atlanta (-3)–home over Chicago 10:00 AM
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Oakland–home 1:05
MINNESOTA (-1)–home over Detroit 10:00 AM
NY GIANTS (+2 ½) over Philadelphia–home 5:30
GARY OLSHAN’S PERSONAL PLAYS CONTINUE
FRIDAY at 12:00 PST PST !

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPARTAN

3* miami dolphins

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Bookiemonsters

POD
CLE -1

Money Generator plays
BUF +3
OAK +7.5
DEN over 47.5

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Norm Hitzges
NFL

DOUBLE PLAYS: Seattle -8 1/2 Dallas
NY Giants +3 Philly
Cincinnati -6 1/2 Carolina


SINGLE PLAYS:


Buffalo +3 New England
Denver -9 1/2 NY Jets
Jacksonville +6 Tennessee
Oakland +7 San Diego
Atlanta--Chicago OVER 54

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Marc Lyle

Miami +3.5

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Wayne Root

Pinnancle - Dolphins
Inner Circle - Bills
Perfect Play - Bucs

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DAVE ESSLER

3* minnesota

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Strike Point Sports

7* Chargers -7
3* Giants +3
3* Seahawks -8

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Robert Ferringo
7*-over-43-bal-tb...
4*-over-45-det-minn

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Indian Cowboy


3* O 45 Detroit/Vikings
8* Under 51 NYG/Eagles


3-Unit Play. #262. Take Over 45 Detroit vs. Minnesota (Sunday @ 1pm est)


Regardless if Johnsonplays or not, what you will see is a relatively big public play here on Detroitand Minnesota is likely to have a solid output here. Detroit looked terrible onthe offensive end in their last game as Schwartz was carried off the field muchto the dislike of players like Golden Tate. But the point is Shwartz knew hisformer team well and stifled their offense in a low scoring affair that favoredthe Bills and they ended up winning - in part b/c of the Detroit's lack ofkicking game. But that of course will change with the signing of Prater (whoholds the NFL record for longest field goal ever when he was a Bronco). Lookfor Bridgewater to get this offense going as he did against the Falcons. Thisis whey they are a small underdog at home. Look for the Lions offense to getback on track as Caldwell was the former offensive coordinator for the SuperBowl Champ Ravens and this team will likely put up their fair share of pointseven without Johnson as they have plenty of weapons that stretch the field. TheOver is 35-15-2 for the Lions after scoring 15 points or less in their previousgame and the Over is 6-1 for the Vikings when they face a team with a winningrecord and 8-2 to the Over when they face a team with a winning road record aswell.






8-Unit Play. #276. Take Under 51 NY Giants vs. Philadelphia (Sunday @ 8:30pm est)


This is a fantastic publicfade on a Sunday Night game which is part of the reason why we are stepping outhere. The latest consensus poll had this over about 80% but the fact is thatthese two teams are more defensive minded than people would like to give themcredit for. The last time these two teams met, if you remember we stepped outlast year on the Total in this game for a 5-unit play on an Under of 49 pointsand the final score was 15-7 in Giant Stadium on a total of 49 points.Now, the total sits at 51 in a similar type of game. Both these teams havegotten their act together as you see a 3-2 Giant team on the road atPhiladelphia. These are the games the Giants thrive on. The last time onprimetime they demolished Washington 45-14 Outright. Then they scored 30 pointson Atlanta's defense at home. But, Philly's defense is much better than folksgive them credit. Throw out the Rams game where they gave up more than 30points. They were probably looking ahead to this game and its hard to get upfor the Rams. But, against elite teams with strong prep, they gave up 26 pointsto San Fran on the road. This Giant defense also gave up 17 points to Houstonat home and 25 points to Arizona in which they were skewered for that loss.Notice, the line in this game is just 2.5 indicating that they are expecting astrong performance from the Giants on the road here. The Giants coaching staffwill pride itself on keeping Kelly's offense in check for the most part andwill likely challenge Foles to beat them in the air which their cornerbackswill thrive on. Note the Under is 9-2 for the Giants when facing teams on theroad with a winning home record. The Under is also 6-2 for the Eagles afterallowing 250 yards in their previous game in passing yards and the Under is 4-0in Philadelphia as well to boot. Look for this contest to be a 24-21 type offinal as it lands in the mid 40's rather than the low 50's in which it is set.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN



8-Unit Play. Take #267 Baltimore (-3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
This play is from my NFL 411 System. The Ravens are a much better team than Tampa Bay. The Bucs are still getting used to Lovie Smith's system. They are struggling defensively and have one of the worst offensive lines in football. Tampa Bay's quarterback situation is not strong either. The Bucs are coming off a deflating overtime loss to a divisional opponent. They blew a big lead on the road at New Orleans and that one will stick with them. The Ravens are angry after their loss on the road to Indianapolis. I think they have a much better chance to bounce back. That was the first time all year they were outgained by an opponent and it snapped a three-game winning streak. The Bucs haven't played at home since their first two games of the season and they lost both of them to Carolina and St. Louis. The Ravens have proven that they are better than both of those teams. The Buccaneers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight regular season games and this team is 1-5 ATS after a loss. Tampa Bay is 13-31 ATS in its last 44 home games and they do not have a strong home field edge at all. The Ravens have big advantages on both sides of the ball. I think they will score at ease against this bad Tampa Bay defense and that will help them beat this spread. Take the better team and the more motivated team. Play the Ravens.



3-Unit Play. Take #265 New England (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
This play is from my NFL 411 System. I was not surprised by the first two picks from the NFL 411 System this week. I was surprised by this one. The Bills are playing strong football. The Patriots have not been very good this year even though they are off a blowout win on Sunday night over the Bengals. But Tom Brady has dominated this series. The Patriots have won 22 of 23 games over the Bills. The Pats have a big edge at quarterback and in coaching. They are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings and the Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo. The Bills lost at home in their toughest game this year, falling to the Cahrgers. I think it will be more of the same in this one. The Patriots own the Bills and they are going to take care of business again this Sunday. Lay the points.



4-Unit Play. Take #258 Atlanta (-3) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
I will go with the home team in this one. The Falcons put a good scare into the Giants last Sunday on the road. They were leading that game before they ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. They were also leading Minnesota going into the fourth quarter before fading. But both of those games were on the road. Now Atlanta is back home and the crowd will keep them in it. The Bears are playing back-to-back road games and their third road game in four weeks. They have to be disappointed about blowing their big lead in Carolina last week. Chicago's defense has not played well and Matt Ryan and the Falcons should be able to pick it apart. The Bears are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC opponents and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Chicago is 2-14 ATS in its last 17 games in Week 6 and I think they will get blown out today.



3-Unit Play. Take #271 Dallas (+8.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
I will take the points in this matchup. Teams that win on Monday Night Football are not good bets the following week. Especially when they are favored. The Cowboys are a very public team. But now the Seahawks are a very public team too because they are the champions. The Cowboys have been strong at the window this year, going 3-2 ATS. They were undervalued coming into this season because expectations were so low. But this is a very good team playing up to its talent. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in this series. The Cowboys have been a strong underdog. They are 12-5 ATS the last 17 times they have taken the points. I do not think that they can win this game. But I think they will keep it close and not get blown out and the points will hold up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs


4 Unit Play. #253/#609 Take Pittsburgh Steelers +2 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Pittsburgh just does not lose to Cleveland. QB Ben Roethlisberger is 17-1 straight-up against the Browns and getting the better team as an underdog is too good to pass up in this game. Cleveland is feeling good at the moment after their great comeback against Tennessee but after further evaluation I realized that Tennessee is a terrible team. Pittsburgh was way up in the first meeting before a late rally by Cleveland tied it up but Pittsburgh is still the much better team. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games.


4 Unit Play. #265/#605 Take New England Patriots -3 over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We used the Patriots last week when most of the experts thought they would get run out of the stadium and will follow that up this week with a selection on them again. This is a much more important game for the Patriots as it is a division game, and New England has yet to record a victory in the AFC East this season. Buffalo is coming off a gift victory last week in Detroit in a game they never should have won were it not for three missed field goals by the recently-cut Lions kicker. New England has won 20 of the last 21 games against Buffalo. Enough said.


5 Unit Play. #270/#622 Take Oakland Raiders +7 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1 pm CBS) TOP NFL Game of the Week. If the Raiders are ever going to put forth an effort during the 2014 season, it will come this week. Oakland made a coaching change during their bye week, and I expect them to play better under new coach Tony Sparano. San Diego has not played well against Oakland in recent years, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Chargers will also be looking ahead as they have Kansas City and Denver on deck. Oakland is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during October. This game means more to Oakland and expect a solid effort under a new coach.

[golden contender]

Huge Sunday card led by AFC West Total of the Year with 6-100% systems and angles + 2 more Totals both with several Perfect angles and systems, a 37-3 Early 5* another big 3 team teaser and a Sunday night Side with over a doze angles and a solid system. NFL is ranked #1 on several major leader boards. Both Sat. Top plays cash big with Miss.St and Kentucky Free NFL System Club Play below.

The Free NFL System Club play is on the NY. Jets plus the 10 points. Game 252 at 1:00 eastern. The Jets are grounded last week in San Diego but have some solid bounce back angles on their side today. The Jets are 9-0 ats as a dog after scoring 10 or less points and 12-1 to the spread if they are a dog an under .500 off a non division game and have 2 or more division games on deck. The Broncos have failed to cover the spread 9 of 10 times in their fifth game of the season and 9 of the last 11 vs a non division team like the Jets if they played an NFC team last week. Teams like the Jets that forced 1 or less turnovers in 5 straight games have covered 41 of 53 times the last 31 seasons. Super bowl losers like Denver have failed to cover the spread 90% of the time vs any non division team that scored 3 or less points in their last game. Look for the Jets to stay in this game and cover the spread. Both Top plays Miss. St and Kentucky cashed big. On Sunday the Huge NFL Card is led by the AFC West Total Of The Year, that has an amazing 6 perfect systems and angles. There are 2 more Big totals system plays both backed with Undefeated angles and systems, a 37-3 Early system winner and the Sunday night play with a solid system and 13 Power Angles. These game have way too much data to list. NFL is ranked #1 on several major leader boards. Put the power of this industry leading data on your side. For the free play take the 10 points with the NY. Jets. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Favorites (ARIZONA) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )

NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
143-35 since 1997. ( 80.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

NFL | DALLAS at SEATTLE
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after 4 or more consecutive wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL PicksNY Giants at PhiladelphiaThe Giants head to Philadelphia tonight where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus the Eagles. New York is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/8)


Game 251-252: Denver at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.520; NY Jets 125.841
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under


Game 253-254: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.593; Cleveland 130.826
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under


Game 255-256: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 117.219; Tennessee 127.141
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6); Over


Game 257-258: Chicago at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.213; Atlanta 128.352
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 56
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Over


Game 259-260: Green Bay at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.613; Miami 128.047
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under


Game 261-262: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.822; Minnesota 130.203
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under


Game 263-264: Carolina at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.323; Cincinnati 137.176
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7 1/2); Over


Game 265-266: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.140; Buffalo 133.506
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under


Game 267-268: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.651; Tampa Bay 131.513
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over


Game 269-270: San Diego at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 141.199; Oakland 122.380
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 19; 38
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Under


Game 271-272: Dallas at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.281; Seattle 141.807
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Seattle by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8 1/2); Over


Game 273-274: Washington at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.276; Arizona 135.763
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3 1/2); Over


Game 275-276: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.244; Philadelphia 135.280
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB PicksSan Francisco at St. LouisThe Giants look to follow up last night's 3-0 win in the series opener as they face a Cardinals team that is 0-4 in Lance Lynn's last 4 home starts versus San Francisco. The Giants are the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has San Francisco favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.



SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 957-958: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 15.809; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.750
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Baylor (-7 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Steelers on Sunday.

The deficit is 992 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo goes with his Besties

The Irish didn’t have enough fight in them to cover 17 Saturday night, but the Giants came up large in St. Louis, so Hondo’s debt dipped slightly to 1,340 alworths.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try to hit pay dirt with his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Broncos, Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Sunday

A solid day in college football on Saturday! Five NFL selections on my card for Sunday. I will most likely add a play on the Sunday night game between the Giants and Eagles that will not be posted here on the website. Follow my Twitter account or email me to get on the text list so you don't miss any added plays. Best of luck.

-EZ

2* (252) New York Jets +10

I have to be honest when I say that there are not any "football" reasons to like the Jets in this match up. This is more of a gut feeling and fade of Floyd Mayweather's 11 million dollar bet on the Broncos. The Jets were hammered last week in San Diego and we all know about the circus that is Geno Smith. Now they face Peyton Manning and company and the whole world will be on Denver. The fact of the matter is that since 2009, double digit home underdogs are an incredible 16-2 against the spread. Take the points.


2* (253) Pittsburgh Steelers PICK

The Browns almost knocked off the Steelers in week one at Pittsburgh thanks to a big second half comeback. Cleveland caught the Steelers defense by surprise with the no huddle, but I don't see that happening this time around. The Browns are coming off of a huge comeback win against Tennessee last week, but the Steelers have owned this series winning 18 out of 19 games. Pittsburgh has too many offensive weapons for Cleveland's 30th ranked defense that will have star cornerback Joe Haden at less than 100%. Play on Pittsburgh.


2* (260) Miami Dolphins +3

The Packers offense is starting to click, but the Dolphins have had extra time to get ready for Aaron Rodgers and company after wiping out the Raiders in London two weeks ago. This will be Miami's toughest test so far this season, but the Dolphins defense is second in the league in total defense behind the Seahawks. The question is how will Green Bay who has the worst rushing defense in the league stop Miami who is 8th in the NFL in rushing. Ball control will be the key and the Dolphins are the home underdog with the better defense. Take the points.


2* (266) Buffalo Bills +2.5

New England killed Cincinnati on national TV last week but should we believe that their offense is clicking like the Patriots of old? Buffalo's defense is playing well, and with Kyle Orton at quarterback who threw for over 300 yards last week at Detroit, you have to at least respect Buffalo's ability to get the ball down field. This opens up more opportunities for the Bills running game. It took a last minute field goal for the Patriots to escape with a two point win in Buffalo last season and I expect this one to go to the wire as well. Take the points.

2* (258) Atlanta Falcons -3

This is a bad match up for a Bears team that is still stinging from blowing the lead last week in Carolina. After back to back road losses at Minnesota and New York, Atlanta gets back to the Georgia Dome where they are a totally different team. The Falcons have scored 93 points in their two home wins. Matt Ryan and company should have a field day against the banged up Chicago secondary. Chicago has plenty of weapons on offense as well, but I'll take quarterback Matt Ryan over mistake prone Jay Cutler any day. Lay the small number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Oakland Raiders are a mess and back home following a trip to London, England, where they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins and decided to fire HC Dennis Allen after just four weeks into the season. While we would think the Raiders may play inspired football for new HC Tony Sporano, the truth is that they are so lacking in talent on the offensive side of the football that this line is still a gift at Chargers -7. The Chargers are 4-1 on the season and playing really solid football, led by QB Philip Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates. There are some serious trends in the Chargers favor in this contest. Let’s start with the fact that San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. While the Raiders are off the Bye week here, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Oakland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games off a Bye week and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The value here clearly lies with the Chargers and we’re gladly going to swallow the points in this spot. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

NFL

Detroit @ MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA -2 -103 over Detroit

(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

In terms of overreactions to prime time games, one need not look further than Minnesota’s 42-10 loss in its last game on a Thursday night game in Green Bay. Man, that was ugly and it was over after five minutes. That sets up this beautiful spot for the Vikings. Remember, Teddy Bridgewater did not play, which left Christian Ponder in charge. Ponder would have trouble moving the ball on SMU. The Vikes get Bridgewater back this week and he makes the biggest difference in the world. Bridgewater doesn’t play like a rookie. He’s quick as a jack rabbit and he’s smart too. The entire organization from the offense to the coaches, to the defense and to the fans, all have a different mindset when Bridgewater is in there. They believe they are going to win and we trust they will too. They Vikes pile up first downs with Teddy in there, which gives the defense some normal rest as oppose to being out there for 40 minutes a game when Ponder goes three and out every series. Besides that, the Lions are getting way too much credit in this number.

Detroit opened the year with a convincing win over the then unprepared Giants. The following week they were whacked in Carolina by 17 points. Detroit also defeated the sickening Jets by 7 and lost last week at home to Buffalo in a game in which they scored 14 points off of turnovers and ended up with 14 points. The Lions have played five games but their sixth game will mark the debut of their third kicker this season. Rookie Nate Freese got the hook after missing four of seven field goals. Alex Henery got two games and missed four of five field goals, including three Sunday in a three-point loss. Those two combined to miss eight of nine field goals beyond 40 yards. Detroit usually waits until December to fold, which could make this an ominous sign of things to come. Furthermore, Megatron is leaking fluid. Over the last three years, Calvin Johnson has seemingly been impervious to pain. He almost never practices on Wednesdays and Thursdays are usually part of that routine as well. But, after being a decoy against the Jets and catching one pass against Buffalo – and getting hurt doing it – the Lions are likely going to sit him for a week or two. Rarely do the Lions play well on the road and we doubt that changes here. With an entirely different feel around the team and in the stands when Teddy Bridgewater starts, he provides hope at the QB position and it is justifiable because he really does have the potential to be among the elite. With 10 days to prepare and coming off that horrible loss in prime time, we’ll go against the overreaction and gladly lay the points.


Carolina @ CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI -6½ -101 over Carolina

(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Carolina is coming off a win over the Bears to run its record to 3-2. They had to rally from 14 down to get that win. That’s nice, it really is but let us remind you that prior to last week’s victory, the Panthers dropped consecutive games to the Steelers and Ravens by scores of 37-19 and 38-10 respectively. Those are two teams that reside in the same division as the Bengals. The Panthers are still a bad offense that suddenly has defensive problems too. Carolina has allowed 10 passing TD’s in five games. The rushing defense has been poor as well with recent teams breaking 100 total rushing yards on them and it’s also worth noting that they have the Packers on deck. Despite its 3-2 record, this is not a good football team and they’ll now head to Cinci to play a team in a very foul mood.

We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping ship and that applies to the Bengals here. Additionally, there is almost always an overreaction/under-reaction to teams that played in prime time the previous week because they are so widely exposed. That, too, applies to the Bengals. Last Monday, Cinci remained the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they were expected to go into New England and beat up on that old and diminishing club. The opposite occurred and the result that night was a lot of ripped up tickets. That said, the Patriots hadn’t been that jacked up for a game in a very long time. They were taking a beating in the media the previous week and they had something to prove, which they did. The Bengals just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time but good teams bounce back and they bounce back hard after getting embarrassed. This line opened with the Bengals being a 7-point choice and it has come off that key number. More money is coming in on the Panthers as we write this, thus the over-reaction to last week’s loss in New England. That’s when we like to step in.


Pittsburgh @ CLEVELAND

Pittsburgh +105 over CLEVELAND

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

The consensus is that the Steelers are not as good as before and the Browns may be better. We’re not so sure. These two met in the season opener back in Pittsburgh and the Brownies rallied from a 24-3 halftime deficit to almost steal a win, eventually losing 30-27. Last week the Brownies rallied from a 28-3 deficit against Tennessee and won 29-28. However, that all occurred after Jake Locker was injured. The Browns pulled a rabbit out of their hat in that game and almost pulled a rabbit out of their hat against Pittsburgh. One could argue that Pittsburgh took its foot off the gas in the second half and nearly got caught but in this league, you can’t expect to win when spotting the opposition 21 points every week. The Brownies have been involved in four intense games that have ALL come down to the final minute. That exerts a ton of energy and is a dangerous way to roll. Those intense and close games while having to rally week after week after week will take a toll. Furthermore, the Browns rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 28th in the league in passing yards per game so it should come as no surprise that are often behind by a wide margin.

Enter the Steelers and RB Le'Veon Bell. Bell's average yards from scrimmage through the Steelers first five games is 138 yards. Bell is the first player in Steelers history to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage in the first five games of a season. Bell piled up 197 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in that aforementioned 30-27 victory over the Browns on Sept. 7. Pittsburgh is not getting any credit because they recently lost to Tampa Bay and didn’t blow out the Jags last week. Let us point out that New Orleans hasn’t lost at home in two years and Tampa probably should have defeated them in New Orleans last week. These Steelers are better than advertised. They have as much offensive balance as any team in the league and they rank 11th and 12th respectively in rushing and passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh easily moved the ball on Baltimore and Carolina, scoring 37 points against the latter and racking up big yards against the Ravens. The Browns offense may be somewhat productive here but overall they have fragile intangibles that keep them from taking that next step and you can’t keep pulling rabbits out of your hat. Steelers outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

Chargers-7@Raiders 2
Ravens @ Bucs OV 43 3*
Dolphins +3.5 vs. Packers 1*
Panthers @ Bengals UN 44 3*
Steelers + 1.5 @ Browns 2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

Atl - 3. 5.5*

2 team tease 5-0 in nfl teases 4.4*
Cinn/Giants. 6pt tease

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sport Prediction Plays

NFL

Miami Dolphins +3, -110 (3 units)

Miami/Green Bay OVER 49, -110 (3 units)

Minnesota Vikings -2, -110 (3 units)

Buffalo Bills +3, -110 (5 units)*

NY Giants +2.5, Even money (3 units)

NYG/Philadelphia UNDER 51, -110 (3 units)

Sports Pick Predictions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER


2* miami dolphins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday NFL


4* Best Bet = SEATTLE
3* = MINNESOTA
3* = CHICAGO
2* = "over" on Packers/Dolphins
2* = Buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Profit Factory

Green Bay -3
NY/Philly Over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

3* N.Y. Giants
3* Buffalo
3* Denver
3* St. Louis
3* Cincy
2* Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Win or Lose Sports Betting


251 DEN -9.5
256 TENN -4
257 CHI +3

260 MIA +3

264 CINN -6.5

269 SD -7

274 ARIZ -3 (Buy the half)
276 UNDER 51 Phil / NYG

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

NFL Side
triple-dime bet 267 BAL -3.0 (-130) 5Dimes vs 268 TAM
Analysis: I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Bucs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Bucs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:12PM PST

NFL Side
dime bet 260 MIA 3.0 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 259 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:17PM PST

NFL Side
double-dime bet 253 PIT 1.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 254 CLE
Analysis: I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout Shocker.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:16PM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole NFL Total
triple-dime bet 259 GBP / 260 MIA OVER 49.0 Hilton
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: OVER the TOTAL

There should be a LOT of points down here in South Florida on Sunday, as Miami hosts Green Bay with both teams off offensive explosions. Both of these teams come in with an average of 48.0 combined PPG on the year. For Green Bay, it's a 27.0 ppg offense and a 21.0 ppg defense. For Miami, it's a 24.0 ppg offense AND defense. It's what they've done lately that elevates this play to Best Bet status. After a slow start to the season, Green Bay has picked up their offense and put up 42 and 38 points in their last two games. The timing is right for a fast game. Coach Mike McCarthy mentioned throughout training camp and the pre-season that quickening their offensive pace was critical. In fact, he mentioned a high number of 75 offensive snaps per game as their goal. Result? The Packers are 4-1 O/U on the season. On the flip side, Miami made some major changes on offense as well. New OC Bill Lazor was brought in to quicken the Dolphin offense. At times, they have struggled in the first month. But at other times, they've scored points in bunches. And they have shot all the way up to the THIRD quickest offense in the NFL (69.5 plays per game). The good news for Over players is: Despite already going 3-1 O/U in their four games, the Dolphins are just scratching the surface. When they do get their offense humming (and they had plenty of time during their bye week), the Overs will continue.

As mentioned above, both teams off impressive wins in their last game. For Green Bay, it was a huge Thursday win over Minnesota.
11-1 O/U since 2009 / 9-0 O/U away: All NFL favorites off a SU THURSDAY win that went OVER the Total (PACKERS).
For Miami, it was a dominating performance over Oakland ‘across the pond’ (London).
6-0 O/U: All NFL underdogs playing off a SU NEUTRAL site win (DOLPHINS).

Green Bay figures to let their hair down a little after playing 3 straight division games in a row.
LAST year, NFL teams off 3 straight division games (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Since the 2007 season, these teams have gone 18-4 O/U when favored (GBAY)... including a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 5 seasons.
Final score of that Packers win over Minnesota last week was 42 to 10.
9-0-1 O/U since 2007: All non-division road teams off a SU DIVISION win of 31 or more points (PACKERS). This situation has already gone 1-0 O/U this year (ATL vs MIN in Week Four).

On the flip side, the host Dolphins come into this NON-conference game with a Week of Rest (BYE).
6-0 O/U since 2001: All non-division home underdogs of < 6 points with rest (MIAMI) and off a SU win in their last game.
Miami has had an up-and-down ride in their last 3 games (SU win of 24 pts and BB SU losses of 19 and 19 pts).
8-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL teams off a SU win of 14 > pts and BB SU losses of 14 > pts each in their last 3 games (DOLPHINS).

So both of these teams enter Sunday’s game off wins of 24 or more points.
6-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL games in which BOTH teams (MIAMI / GREEN BAY) are off a SU win of 24 > points.
Let’s not forget to query the ‘AFC vs NFC’ aspect of this game. Last season, All > .500 NFC ‘short’ road favorites of -4 < pts (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 7-0 O/U versus an AFC opponent (DOLPHINS).

Look for a lot of fast-paced NO HUDDLE plays in this shootout. Final score: 31 to 28...
Pick Made: Oct 10 2014 8:59PM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

2014 AFC North Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cleveland under 47

Early NFL Best Bets
Detroit/Minnesota over 43
Carolina/Cincinnati over 43 1/2
New England/Buffalo under 45
Baltimore/Tampa Bay over 43 1/2

2014 NFC East Division Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
New York/Philadelphia over 50

Late NFL Best Bets
Chicago/Atlanta under 54
San Diego/Oakland under 43 1/2
Dallas/Seattle over 46 1/2
Washington/Arizona under 45 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hall of Fame Sports Picks

Detroit Lions spread
Cincinnati Bengals spread

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Craig Davis

Sunday's Action...

100 Dime Winner for Sunday is a 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser on both the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills as the home dogs teased up. At 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday night when I release this selection, the Dolphins are +3 point dogs, while the Bills are the +2 1/2 point dogs both in Vegas and offshore. In this teaser we are getting the Dolphins at +10, and the Bills at +9 1/2 points.


Analysis


100 DIME - 2 TEAM, 7 POINT TEASER --- MIAMI DOLPHINS & BUFFALO BILLS--- Your top play of the day is the Dolphins and Bills in a two-team/7-point teaser. When you saw the two games involved in this teaser, you probably thought to yourself that I was releasing Green Bay and New England... probably because those are the "sexy" picks.


With New England it's impossible to tell which Patriots team is going to show up from week to week. Are we going to see the team that scored a mere 16 points against the lowly Raiders and followed that up by getting blown out on national TV at Kansas City? Or are we going to see the group that absolutely demolished the previously-unbeaten Bengals and could seem to do no wrong?


For the Bills, their season could have changed for the better last week with a surprising come-from-behind win at Detroit. That was a HUGE win for so many reasons, but most importantly getting confidence for former backup (now starter) Kyle Orton.


While Buffalo was able to win the game last week, they didn't have a lot of success running the ball vs. the #4 ranked rush defense in the league. Running, however, is what the Bills are built on and want to do... and the Patriots will be able to oblige a lot better. New England is much better, defensively, when asked to stop the pass because of guys like Darrelle Revis.


But that's okay with Buffalo... the are 22-2 over their last 24 games when out-rushing their opponent. Even if Orton doesn't have his best game, I like my chances with the home team that runs the ball better.


As for Miami and Green Bay, well, let's just say I haven't figured out the Packers yet either. They've looked absolutely dominant against the Bears and then the Vikings, but they've had an extended period of rest which sometimes helps, but often time hinders sharpness... especially offensively when the team wasn't tested after the first quarter.


Joe Philbin, the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins is in the unique situation of having coached Aaron Rodgers for many years as his offensive coordinator. Philbin not only coached him for several years, he's also coming in off a bye week, having been given two full weeks to prepare for any of Rodger's weaknesses.


Don't get me wrong, I believe Rodgers should be able to get several opportunities to produce, but the Dolphins have those few advantages including the ability to pressure the QB. and when that happens, we all know Rodgers clearly isn't the same guy.


The bottom line is... Green Bay enters today's game off a perfect Thursday night win and now have had 10 days to hear about how great they are. It reminds me a lot of the Falcons from a few weeks ago. Remember Atlanta completely blew the Bucs off the field on a Thursday night, only to turn around and get beat up by the Vikings the following Sunday.


Take the Bills and Dolphins in this teaser as your top play of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Sunday Selection ...

For Sunday, Top-Rated 1000♦ is the Cincinnati Bengals as the home favorite over the Carolina Panthers. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the Bengals are the -6 1/2 point to -7 point favorites both in Vegas and offshore. Make sure you get the best line possible.


While I respect Carolina's 8-2 spread mark their last 10 as the road dog, they are going to Cincinnati here on Sunday to face the previously undefeated Bengals who were humiliated but good at New England last Sunday night.


Bounce-back effort comes today from the Bengals who have now won 11 in a row regular season home games since the end of the 2012 season, and better still have covered in ALL of those 11 wins!


Yes, A.J. Green is out for this one, but this game comes down to the rock-ribbed Bengals defense making the difference by getting in Cam Newton's face all afternoon long.


The Panthers got the Bears to give away last week's game, something the Bengals will not do on their home field today. With Carolina having issues running the ball, look for the Cincy secondary to feast on the young and unproven Carolina receivers, and look for the Bengals to bounce-back from last week's prime time humbling at New England.



Cincy by 10.



Sunday Note


Wow, that's all I can say...wow!


2500♦ Clemson loses their starting QB in the first quarter, and while they had a legitimate shot to close the ATS against Louisville at the end of the game, they settled for the field goal to go up by 6, and then hung on for dear life.


Just stinking up the joint right now. Nothing more I can say. Terrible, terrible calls this weekend.


New day has arrived, and with it a chance to close out the weekend with a winner.


Top-Rated 1000♦ Bounce-Back Lock on line for Sunday afternoon.


Team off a loss last week, bounces-back this week with the win.


PS - Don't forget my Pay-After-You-Win release.


Remember, the Pay-After play is always on a SEPARATE extension.



Must win, or you will NOT be charged!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Sunday's Action

50 Dime winner going out for this Sunday is the Over in the Steelers-Browns game. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the total for this game stands at 47 points both in Vegas and offshore.



ANALYSIS


When Pittsburgh and Cleveland played on Week One, the Steelers raced to a 27-3 lead, then hung on for dear life in their 30-27 win in a game that sailed Over the total.


I like the points to add up once again in the rematch, especially when you consider the Brownies have played to Overs in all 4 of their games this season, and are now 9-3-1 Over the price in their last 13 dating back to a season ago.


The Steelers streak of 2 in a row Over was snapped last week against the anemic Jags, but Mike Tomlin's club owns a 7-3 Over mark their last 10 since last year.


Cleveland is allowing 5 yards per carry, and it is just hard for me to see this one turning into a field goal contest.


Let's play it Over in this AFC North battle, Part 2.


SUNDAY NOTE


Big Play Specialist locked and loaded for Sunday.


Time for the slide to stop, and time to get back to the winning.


42 of the past 73 days have made you money!


Sitting on a winner for Sunday Week Six, and it happens to be a total winner.


$10 bettor is still up over 12 grand since early April.


50 Dime Winner # 25 of 44 AFC North Total going out.


A $10 bettor has netted $12,230 the past 171 days, and there is more winning lined up for tonight.


No need to mince words, just hit this winner and move on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dan the Man

Sunday's Play

Sunday winner is a 75 Dime play on the Philadelphia Eagles as the home favorite against the New York Giants. At 7:05 pm Vegas time on Saturday night, the Eagles are -2 1/2 to -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. Make sure to shop around and get the best line possible. I want you to buy the half-point down on the Eagles if your number is -3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton

Your Sunday Winner...

Sunday winner is a 50 Dime release on the Minnesota Vikings over the Detroit Lions. At 5:00 am Vegas time, the Vikings are -2 1/2 point favorites over the Lions. If this line should creep to -3 or even -3 1/2, then buy the half point down on Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

Sunday Selection ...

My 150 dime selection is on Dolphins over the Packers. The current line on this game is +3 in Vegas and offshore. I advise buying the 1/2 point and getting +3 1/2. If your man has a 2 1/2, you buy up to +3. You make sure to get +3 and +3 1/2. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.



NOTE:
This is a huge Sunday.


As far as Saturday was concerned, the world seemed to have a huge interest in the USC/Arizona game.


I gave the game out early Saturday morning at +2 1/2 and even told my clients to buy up to +3. Seemed a great value.


After 2:00 pm EST the line moved to -2 and then, all hell broke loose as the line moved the rest of the day eventually closing at the Wildcats as a -1 1/2 point favorite.


I believe the line move was caused by Oregon's blowout win at UCLA, thus making the Wildcats win at Oregon 9 days ago that much more impressive.


Whatever it was, it made the game a win for some, a push for some and a loss for some.


For record keeping purposes and based on what time I gave the game out and what the line was at that time, I will call it a push, even though in my private life I won.


Now that we got that out of the way, let's get to my 4th straight 150 dime winner.


ANALYSIS
I truly believe the wrong team is favored this afternoon.


Off their back to back wins over the Bears and the Vikings, the entire world is back on the Packers band wagon.


Huge mistake. Big. Huge.


This is still the same Green Bay team that was blown out at Seattle, trailed the Jets 21-3 at Lambeau and if Geno Smith doesn't implode, they don't win that game.


Then they go to Detroit in week 3 and lose 19-7 crossing midfield just 3 times in 9 possessions in an absolute horrible offensive performance.


So again, Aaron Rodgers popped off with the "R-E-L-A-X" comment because he knew he was facing two teams he has owned over the course of his career.


You think he would have said that if they were playing the Broncos and Patriots? No way he says it. No way in hell.


Trust me when I tell you the Dolphins are a huge step up for this Green Bay team today and they will be in trouble from the get go.


Miami opened the season dominant in the 2nd half beating New England but followed up that win with a loss week two at Buffalo. The same Bills that just beat the Lions in Detroit.


Then in Week 3 they get beat at home to the Chiefs, the same Chiefs that destroyed the Patriots on Monday night. No shame in that.


But for some reason people got off this team's bandwagon and they proceeded to destroy Oakland in London setting up this game here.


Miami is the 5th best running team in the NFL at 142.3 yards per game and at home today they face the worst run defense in the NFL...the Packers.


I have said it now for 25 years, if you can't stop the run in the NFL you are not going to be successful on the road. Simple as that.


It's going to be a huge day for Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno as they get Tannehill in favorable 3rd and shorts and the Dolphins exploit this very average Packers defense.


Grab this home doggy to shock the world on Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Michaels

SUNDAY

100 Dime, 7 POINT Two-Team Teaser on Denver and Seattle, who are favorites against the Jets and Cowboys, respectively. As I release this play at 2:05 AM here in Vegas, Denver is -9 to -10 at most books with Seattle -8 to -9. Using the SEVEN points in this particular two-teamer, reduce the price on both favorites, making Denver -3 (using the higher price listed above) and Seattle -2 (again using the higher price above).


FYI - generally I go with standard six-point teasers, but in this particular case I opted for a seven-pointer because of the wider range of prices and since Denver is pushing -10 at some books. You do NOT want to watch a field goal win get you a loss at -4 with a six-point teaser instead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

10/12/14
Baltimore (NFL)

Special Instructions: Buy down 1/2 point. (just in case)

After a tough loss last week, the Ravens need a win. The sit at 3-2 on the season, which isn't bad considering the fallout of the Ray Rice scenario, which I believe they put behind them brilliantly. They have quietly returned to being that gritty and stingy defense and they have quite a few playmakers on offense, along with a 3 prong running attack led by Justin Forsett who has stepped it up in Rice's absence.

Everyone is high on Tampa after they shocked Pittsburgh and almost did the same to the Saints. However, these are not the New Orleans saints of old, and the same goes for Pittsburgh. The recent semi surge from Tampa is a fake, and Lovie Smith is still.... Lovie Smith.

Ravens win this one, going away.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd

Sunday's Play

50 Dime selection on the Carolina Panthers against the Cincinnati Bengals. As I release this play at 5:00am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on Carolina is +6 1/2 to +7 in Vegas and offshore. In this situation I recommend you buy the 1/2 point insurance and move the line to +7 or +7 1/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

Sunday Winner

My 40 Dime Winner for tonight is on the EAGLES in their NFC East showdown against the Giants. As of 7:30 a.m. eastern, the line I see is -2.5 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont

Football winner...

My 40 Dime Winner is the UNDER in the Interconference showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins. As of 5 a.m. pacific, I see the total on this game is 49 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Falcon Sports


Minnesota -2 (-110) 2 units

Dallas +9.5 (-115) 2 units

NY Giants +3 (-120) 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vince Akins's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks


Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-3.5 +100)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Baltimore over TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay has put together spirited efforts each of the past two weeks, but at some points that spirit runs out and the talent gap becomes evident. In a game the Ravens don't want to let get away we see them coming in here and taking care of things comfortably.
Baltimore is on the road for the second straight game after a loss in Indy last week. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
They scored just 13 points in the loss, their lowest output of the season. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (13.42 ppg) since Nov 05, 2000 as a road favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average (team=Ravens and AF and p:points + 10<=Average(p:points@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=20001105).
They rushed for 90 yards in the loss, the second straight game their rushing output decreased. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. (team=Ravens and A and p:RY=2008).
it wasn't a lack of productivity but that they didn't really commit to the run, with just 15 carries in that game. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. (team=Ravens and A and p:L and tA(p:rushes)-p:rushes >= 10 and season>=2001).
As you might imagine the result was the Colts dominated the ball, and the Ravens had control for just 21:17. The Ravens are 9-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. (team=Ravens and AF and p:TOP<1560 and date>=20011101).
Tampa Bay returns home here after three straight road games. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-9.21 ppg) since Dec 07, 1997 as a home dog after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks (team=Buccaneers and HD and p:A and pp:A and date>=19971207).
They lost a heartbreaker on the road last week, 37-31 in overtime at New Orleans. Homes teams that lost in overtime in road game last week are 46-68-4 ATS (H and p:overtime=1 and p:AL and NB).
They did themselves no favors in that upset bid with 15 penalties in the loss. Teams that committed at least 13 penalties last game are 118-166-8 ATS (p:penalties>=13).
Now they have this lone home game before going into the bye next week. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-9.25 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 the week before their bye (team=Buccaneers and n:week=2 +week and date>=20081102).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore 27, TAMPA BAY 13
Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (PK +105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR MINNESOTA over Detroit - The Vikings get a free pass for last week's performance in Green Bay. Once the Vikings knew Christian Ponder was starting they knew their fate and the effort showed. With Teddy back in command here, we expect them to foil Detroit playing outdoors.
Minnesota lost in Green Bay on Thursday night, 42-10. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
It was an unusual blowout in that Minnesota actually had the ball for over 32 minutes in the loss.
The Vikings are 12-0-1 ATS (8.69 ppg) since Sep 30, 2001 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Vikings and D and p:L and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and date>=20010930).
They stuck with the run with 25 rushes with their lone TD coming on a Ponder run. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) after a road game which was not the season opener in which they rushed for a TD (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Ponder was in trouble all game and was sacked six times in the loss. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Detroit goes to Minnesota after absolutely letting one get away in a 17-14 loss to Buffalo as a home favorite. The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since Nov 06, 2005 with 5-10 days rest playing on artificial turf after a loss as a favorite (team=Lions and surface=artificial and p:FL and 10>=rest>=5 and date>=20051106).
Buffalo had 11 penalties in the game, but even that wasn't enough to save Detroit. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po:penalties>=11 and p:L).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27, Detroit 20
Matchup: Denver at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)


Play: N.Y. Jets (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR NY JETS over Denver - This pick is 100% against the public but this line is overreacting to just one week. If their game happened last week, the Jets would not have been more than six point home dogs. They are significantly more here and that makes a big difference in these game where hope seems to be lost on the surface.
When a home team is a dog of more than a TD they carry a strong edge. Home dogs of more than a TD are 174-136-1 ATS (H and line>7).
The reason for the big line is that New York lost by 31 points last week. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
They were shutout in the road loss at the Chargers, a game where they were just TD road dogs despite San Diego being one of the league's best teams. The Jets are 9-0 ATS since November 2007 as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points (team=Jets and D and p:points<10 and NB and date>=20071101).
They lost the turnover margin yet again in that game, but that's a correctable problem. The Jets are 8-0 ATS (7.62 ppg) since Oct 20, 1996 at home when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games (team=Jets and H and 0
=19961020).
Falling behind so early last game, they had to get away from their bread and butter running game, and had just 21 carries. The Jets are 10-0 ATS (9.80 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average (team=Jets and HD and p:L and p:rushes + 10<=Average(p:rushes@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=19910915).
Still that was better than their feable passing effort which had just 60 yards on 31 attempts plus sacks. Teams that had fewer than 65 passing yards last game are 107-85-5 ATS (p:PY<65). Also, the Jets are 6-0 ATS (14.17 ppg) since Dec 14, 1997 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing (team=Jets and H and p:PY<100 and date>=19971214).
Denver meanwhile has 772 passing yards over their last two games. Teams that have thrown for at least 740 combined yards in their past two games are 32-43-3 ATS (p:PY + pp:PY>=740).
They won last week, 41-20, at home against Arizona. Road favorites of more than a point coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and did not win by more than 27 are 180-246-11 ATS (A and line<-1 and p:points>=30 and NB and p:margin<=27).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 26, NEW YORK 21
Matchup: Carolina at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -120)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR Carolina +7 over CINCINNATI - We think the loss that Cincinnati suffered last week is going to have more than a one week effect. Their confidence should rightfully be shaken and now they are further hurt with the big loss of AJ Green. As Cam Newton gets healthy, this is the kind of game set up for the Panthers to compete in.
Further setting up a hangover possibility for Cincinnati is that it was their first loss this late into the season, one of the two last teams to lose a game on the year. Teams are 38-56-3 ATS when it is at least week 6 and they lost their first game of the season last game (losses=1 and p:L and week>=6).
Both their offense and defense were bad in the 43-17 loss to the Patriots. Favorites that allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 are 61-88-3 ATS (po:points>=37 and F and p:points<=19).
Cincinnati was actually a 2.5-point favorite in that game, failing to cover by 28.5 points. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
They gave up all those points after allowing just seven in a blowout over Tennessee the week prior. Teams that allowed at least 35 points last game and less than 14 two games ago (po:points>=35 and ppo:points<14).
New England even committed 12 penalties Sunday, but that wasn't enough to even mildly slowdown the beatdown. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po:penalties>=11 and p:L).
Carolina won last week 31-24 over Chicago. they wisely got the ball to Greg Olsen who had two TDs in the win. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (11.29 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 after a win in which Greg Olsen had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0=20111002).
Cam Newton completed just 19 of 35 passes in the game, but was hitting plays down the field. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (14.00 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 the week after a game in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average (team=Panthers and NB and 100. * tp:completions / tp:passes + 10<=Average((100.*tp:completions)@team and season and tp:season=season) / Average(tp:passes@team and season and tp:season=season) and date>=20091206).
They were able to overcome a monster receiving day from Matt Forte out of the backfield, as he had 12 catches for 105 yards in the loss. Teams that have an opponent's player catch 12+ balls last game are 71-59-2 ATS (max:po:receptions>=12).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 23, Carolina 20
Matchup: Green Bay at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+3 -105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR MIAMI over Green Bay - Not many people are giving the Dolphins much of a chance here even at home, but they are a team which has found something going into their bye. With an extra week's rest for their pass rush and a 1-2 punch returning the in backfield, we expect them to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field enough to pull off this upset win.
Before their bye they played Oakland as the road team in London. The Dolphins are 9-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 as a dog after playing away from home (team=Dolphins and D and p:site!=home and date>=20111106).
They dominated that game, winning 38-14. Home teams in non-divisional regular season games, with more than normal rest after scoring at least 28 points last game are 83-46-3 ATS (rest>6 and p:points>=28 and H and NDIV and playoffs=0).
Green Bay also dominated last week, defeated Minnesota 42-10 in a game where they were up 28 by halftime. The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
As a nine-point favorite they still covered that game by 23 points. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-8.75 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Packers and (-3<=line<=3) and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20080921).
Prior to that game, they had allowed 24 points per game. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-6.00 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home (team=Packers and po:points<=Average(po:points@team and season and po:season=season) -10 and p:H and date>=20111023).
Turnovers went Green Bay's way in that win, forcing three and committing just one. The Packers are 0-11 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and p:TOM<=-2 and NB and date>=20021201).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 24, Green Bay 20
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (45.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR New England and Buffalo Under - Even though the final scoreboard didn't give much indication, we saw how the Patriots will want to play last week, and it starts with the running game. Buffalo is reliant on short passes and without a ton of big play opportunities from either side we look for this to stay under the total.
This game is expected to be close with New England on the road before they go home each of the next two weeks. The Patriots are 0-10 OU (-9.95 ppg) since Nov 06, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and n:H and nn:H and week + 2=nn:week and date>=19941106).
They scored 43 points last week and they even left some on the table with five field goals. Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 78-118-2 OU (p:field goals attempted>=5).
What they did was control things with the running game, with 46 carries in the win. Teams in game with a total of over 44, who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Buffalo is also coming off an upset win at Detroit. = The Bills are 0-6 OU (-11.25 ppg) since Dec 03, 2009 within 3 of pick at home after a win (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and date>=20091203).
Their ATS margin has increased in each of the last two games after being blown out by the Chargers. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 19, 1998 within 3 of pick at home when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and ppp:ats margin=19981219).
Their lone big play of that 17-14 win over Detroit was a 42-yard strike to Marquise Goodwin. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 at home after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards (team=Bills and H and 40<=max:p:longest reception and p:W and NB and date>=20081130).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Washington at Arizona
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (45.0 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Washington and Arizona Over - These are a pair of offenses that are not afraid to take and hit big shots down the field. They also each have QBs that will make mistakes to give up quick points. Arizona's QB uncertainty has kept this total down, but with the Cardinals' injury riddled defense, we expect a shootout.
Washington is playing a lone road game here sandwiched between home games. The Redskins are 6-0 OU (10.33 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road between home games (team=Redskins and A and p:H and n:H and p:week + 2=n:week and date>=20120930).
Both of these teams are coming off games where they struggled to run the ball. Washington had just 32 rushing yards on the ground against Seattle on Monday night while Arizona had just 37 in Denver last week, activating a monster system on both teams. Since 2002, teams that ran for less than 50 yards last game and are facing a team that ran for less than 75 yards last game are 69-31-1 OU (p:RY<50 and op:RY<75 and season>=2002).
Arizona didn't even have a single medium length run as none of their 20 carries went for more than six yards. Teams that did not have a rush of more than seven yards last game are 82-60-2 ATS (max:p:longest rush<=7).
One positive from their offense in the 41-20 loss to Denver was that they didn't turn over the ball. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (12.78 ppg) since Oct 30, 1994 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Cardinals and HF and p:turnovers=0 and date>=19941030).
They did allowed 476 passing yards to Peyton Manning in the blowout loss. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (9.65 ppg) since Dec 05, 1993 as a home favorite when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and Average(po:passing yards@team and season and po:season=season) + 100<=po:passing yards and po:week + 1=week and date>=19931205). More recently, the Cardinals are 6-0 OU (14.75 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Cardinals and HF and 300<=po:passing yards and NB and date>=20071125).
In this game they are back home where they are already 2-0 on the season. The Cardinals are 6-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 within 3 of pick at home when they won their last two home games (team=Cardinals and H and -3<=line<=3 and Sum(0=20061217).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 28, ARIZONA 27
Member Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (47 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR Cleveland and Pittsburgh Under - This Steelers offense really comes and goes. Even last week with a defensive touchdown, they scored just 17 points. Cleveland meanwhile is not a team that wants to play high-scoring games, though playing in games where there have been big leads, that hasn't happened yet this year. That's driving the total up where it shouldn't in this game.
After this game, Pittsburgh has a game in the primetime of Monday night against Houston. The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 17, 1999 on the road the week before playing on Monday Night (team=Steelers and A and n:day=Monday and date>=19991017).
They are dogs here after winning as away favorite in Jacksonville last week. The Steelers are 0-9 OU (-12.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 1995 as a dog after a win as an away favorite (team=Steelers and D and p:AFW and date>=19950918).
They were expected to score over 26 points in the game but had just 17 in victory.The Steelers are 0-8 OU (-13.75 ppg) since Dec 09, 2007 as a dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=Steelers and D and p:W and p:dps<0 and date>=20071209).
Cleveland meanwhile won a high scoring game, 29-28 in one of the best comebacks in league history Sunday. Teams that won despite allowing at least 28 points last game are 190-239-10 OU (po:points>=28 and p:W).
They allowed 5.8 more points than expected in the victory. The Browns are 0-9 OU (-13.94 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002 the week after a win on the road in which their dpa was positive (team=Browns and p:AW and 0=20020929).
Even in a game where they were down 25, they still managed to run the ball 36 times. Teams in games where the total is over 44 after running the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Pittsburgh should know after week one that they can't sleep on this Cleveland offense averaging 387 yards per game. The Steelers are 0-7 OU (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 23, 2005 as a road dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and AD and oA(TY)>=375 and date>=20051023).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Chicago at Atlanta
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Chicago (+3 +100)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4-STAR Chicago over ATLANTA - The Falcons happen to be 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, leading everyone to believe they are going to be just fine at home here. The fact is, injuries have just knocked them too far down. In a game that figures to be high scoring, Chicago has the more successful running attack and we think that will make a difference in a game where the defenses will struggle.
Chicago is playing on the road for the second straight week in this contest. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
And for the second straight week, they are the small road underdog in the game. The Bears are 8-0 ATS (6.69 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a road dog after playing as a road dog (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
They do come into this ganme struggling, having lost by 7 and 21 the past two games. The Bears are 9-0-1 ATS (11.50 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
Atlanta lost on the road last week in New York, 30-20. They actually led, 20-17 entering the fourth quarter of that loss. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Nov 23, 2003 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (team=Falcons and p:L and p:M3>0 and date>=20031123).
Now while Chicago is better at running the ball, both of these teams like to air it out. Each team has thrown the ball on 63% of their plays, but that is even more taxing on the Atlanta defense. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-5.67 ppg) since Oct 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date (team=Falcons and -3<=line<=3 and 60=20021006).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago by 7
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT


4.5-STAR New England over BUFFALO - Some luck in close games and all of a sudden, Buffalo is getting a decent amount of respect. The fact is they got badly outplayed even last week, but benefitted from a lot of field goal luck. With the Patriots in a groove, we don't seem the letting this one get away.
New England covered by 28.5 points last week in an upset home win over Cincinnati. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (16.86 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 within 3 of pick on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20020915).
That was in a Sunday night game and big primetime win tend to carry teams going forward. Teams that won by at least 22 points in a primetime game are 99-77-7 ATS next game ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
They dominated on the ground with 220 rushing yards in the win. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (14.73 ppg) since Jan 02, 1994 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Patriots and -3<=line<=3 and 150<=p:RY and NB and date>=19940102).
Benefitting from three turnovers while not committing any did not hurt the cause. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (12.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 when they won last week as a dog while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 (team=Patriots and p:W and p:turnover margin<=-2 and p:D and date>=20011202).
That is going to be a big factor here shares the league lead with several teams including New England with a +6 turnover differential this year. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (13.08 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date (team=Patriots and Average(o:turnover margin@o:team and season)<=-1 and date>=20111002).
However, Buffalo's turnovers have been big ones, allowing defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games. Teams that won last game and have allowed defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games are 23-47-1 ATS.
Both Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins had seven catches in the game as the win was led by the short passing game. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 after a win in which a receiver had at least 6 receptions (team=Bills and 6<=max:p:receptions and p:W and date>=20111106).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England by 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Broncos -9.5
50* Ravens / Bucs Over 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
The crazy run continues with a 5 Star winner last night as the Royals scored 2 ninth inning runs to beat the Orioles and take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. Kyle added another winner with the UNDER as well as the Giants won Game 1 3-0.
Important: Kyle and I have picks on the opposite side today, which I have to send out for record keeping (as we track our records separately). I recommend making this a no play.
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - GIANTS TO WIN (+128)
Listed Pitchers: Peavy vs Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.56 units)
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Peavy vs. Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
-- No write up on a Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Football


SUNDAY

Play Miami +3 over Green Bay (NFL)
1:00 PM EST

Miami has covered the spread in 13 of the last 19 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games when playing as a home underdog. Green Bay has lost two consecutive games against the spread coming off two wins by ten points or more and they have lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread when the line posted is between +3 to -3.


Play Buffalo +3 over New England (NFL)
1:00 PM EST

New England has lost 13 of the last 17 games against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game and they have lost 13 of the last 19 games against the spread after scoring 30 or more total points in their last game. New England has lost 11 of the last 18 road games against the spread and they are allowing an average of 27 points a game on defense in road games this season.


Play Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
Play Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Baseball

SUNDAY

Play St. Louis -130 over San Francisco (Top Play)
8:00 PM EST

Lance Lynn has won 5 of the last 6 games when pitching with seven or more days of rest and he has won 33 of the last 49 home games. Lance Lynn has won 46 of the last 72 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 10 of the last 16 games when pitching on a Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Accuscore NFL 6 Week

DEN Broncos -9.5 (GOY)
SD Chargers -7.0
WAS Redskins +4.0
TEN Titans -4.0
PHI Eagles -2.5
Panthers vs Bengals UNDER 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie


SUNDAY

10* Play Buffalo +3 over New England (Top NFL Play)

New England is 4-13 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game
New England is 6-13 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their last game


10* Play Miami +3 over Green Bay (Top NFL Play)

Miami is 13-6 ATS when the line posted is between +3 to -3
Miami is 6-0 ATS when playing as a home underdog


10* Play Seattle -8 over Dallas (Top NFL Play)

Seattle is 15-5 ATS in home games the last three seasons
Seattle is 12-3 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points


10* Play Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants (Top NFL Play)

New York is 1-4 ATS after covering the spread in three of the last four games
New York is 1-5 ATS after allowing 300 orm ore passing yards in their last game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

SUNDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play St. Louis -130 over San Francisco (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis is 53-31 in home games this season
St. Louis is 102-61 after scoring two runs or less in their last game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime


MLB Baseball

1000* Play St. Louis -130 over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)

Jake Peavy has lost 32 of the last 51 road games and he has lost 50 of the last 78 games when playing as an underdog of +100 to +150. Jake Peavy has lost 35 of the last 62 night games and he is 3-6 vs. St. Louis over his career with an ERA of 4.29.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

SUNDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (TOP NFL PLAY)

Tampa Bay has lost 18 of the last 26 games when playing as an underdog and they have lost 12 of the last 18 home games. Tampa Bay has lost 17 of the last 23 games coming off a loss in their last game and they have lost 15 of the last 19 games when playing in the 1st half of the season.


5000* Play Pittsburgh +2 over Cleveland (TOP NFL PLAY)

Cleveland has lost 15 of the last 19 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have lost 18 of the last 27 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents. Cleveland has lost 6 of the last 7 games coming off two or more OVER the totals and they have lost 17 of the last 25 games when playing after the 1st month of the season.

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50* Play San Diego -7 over Oakland (TOP NFL PLAY)
50* Play Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants (TOP NFL PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SUNDAY BASEBALL




Play St. Louis -130 over San Francisco---Top Play (Risk 10% of your Bankroll)

8:00 PM EST

St. Louis has won 53 of the last 84 home games and they have won 69 of the last 120 games vs. NL West Division Opponents. St. Louis has won 78 of the last 137 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have won 102 of the last 163 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SUNDAY

TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS



Play Seattle -8 over Dallas----RISK 15% OF YOUR BANKROLL

4:30 PM EST

Seattle has covered the spread in 15 of the last 20 home games and they have covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games vs. NFC Conference Opponents and they are averaging 31 points on offense in home games this season.




Play Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants----RISK 15% OF YOUR BANKROLL

8:30 PM EST

New York has lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread after covering the spread in three of the last four games and they have lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game. New York has lost two consecutive games against the spread coming off two games where 50 or more total points were scored and they have lost two consecutive games against the spread after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.

==================================================

BONUS NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS



Play Miami +3.5 over Green Bay----RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play Buffalo +3 over New England----RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

Key Releases

CINCINNATI by 20 over Carolina

SAN DIEGO by 18 over Oakland

OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Atlanta game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James jones

3 Units: (260) Miami Dolphins +3 1:00 PM ET
1 Unit: (271) Dallas Cowboys +8.5 4:25 PM ET
1 Unit: (276) Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 8:30 PM ET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger:


4% *NFL (262) MIN VIKINGS -128


*NFL TEASER 6 PTS: (260) MIA DOLPHINS +8.5 /(266) BUF BILLS +8.5


*NFL (278) ST. LOUIS +3.5-120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

St. Louis Cardinals -130

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Mike O Connor NFL Plays October 12

266) Buffalo +3 (-135)
(260) Miami +3 (-120)
(264) Cincinnati -6.5
(277) San Francisco -3 (-130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning Sports

divisional g.o.y. 20* pitt +2

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Members Area
PSYCHIC
(1-5)
4 UNIT Atlanta -3 (MAJOR)
4 UNIT NY Giants + 3 (MAJOR)
5 UNIT New England -2.5 (WISEGUY)

WIZARD
(1-10)

7 UNIT Tennessee -4
8 UNIT Denver -8
10 UNIT Dallas +8.5 (NFC GAME OF THE YEAR)
10 UNIT Giants +3 (Vegas Sharps Inside Tip)

JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)

under 49.5 miami/gb (TOTAL OF THE YEAR)
Winnipeg +175
San Francisco Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Root

No Limit Dallas
Millionaires Philadelphia

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Paul Leiner:

1500* NFL Patriots -2

100* NFL Broncos -9.5

50* NFL Over 43 Bucs/Ravens

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Pick Addict
1:00 PM EST NFL
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
PICK: CINCINNATI BENGALS -7 (+100)
RISK: 5 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINSPORTSNOW
Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week:
Dolphins+3.5

Wiseguy NFL 10,000 Star Play
Giant+2.5

Wiseguy NFL Bonus Plays
Under 42 Bengals
Falcons-3.5
Chargers-7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINSPORTSNOW
Sunday Football Best Bets Report
Browns-130
Over 43 Vikings
Seahawks-6.5(-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole
4* Green Bay'OVER
3* San Diego 'UNDER'

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T. W. Herri Sun Oct 12th, 2014 4:05pm EDT

7 Unit Total Play · Over [269] San Diego Chargers vs. [270] Oakland Raiders

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FSOTB - Fat Side Of The Bacon

DOLPHINS
BILLS
VIKINGS
RAIDERS
BEARS
OVER IN BEARS GAME
GIANTS
RAMS

They always take +3.5, +7.5, -6.5, -2.5/ML plays - They suggest to buy the points

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Budin 100 Dime on Dolphins. Suggests to buy half point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frankie diamonds
Over 46 Washington / Arizona

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Harry Bondi
6* Miami
3* Cincy
3* Philly

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Real Swoop
Steelers +2 (2*)
Bears +3 (1*)
Dolphins +3 (4*)
Vikings -2 (2*)
Bills +3 (3*)
Ravens/Bucs Over 44 (2*)

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Philly Godfather

Bills +3
Dallas +8
Giants +3

•Washington Redskins/Arizona
Cardinals over 23 -110 for 1st Half
•266 Buffalo Bills +½ -110 for 1st
Half
•260 Miami Dolphins +½ -110 for 1st
Half
•273 Washington Redskins/Arizona
Cardinals over 45
•259 Green Bay Packers/Miami Dolphins
under 49 -105
251 Denver
Broncos/New York Jets under 48 -105

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Locksmith Sports

Chairman's Plays
6* NFL GOY Dolphins
5* Bills

1* Raiders, Bucs, Jets, Vikings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

2* 6pt teaser san diego and giants

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Vegas Runner/NFAC
#254) CLEVELAND -1 (nfac $500)
#258) ATLANTA -3 (nfac $500)
#260) MIAMI +3 (-120) (nfac $500)
#262) MINNESOTA -2.5 (nfac $500)
#264) UNDER 44 CAR/CIN (nfac $500)
#270) OAKLAND +7.5 (nfac $500)

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Denton Bancroft:
Here are all 4 of my NFL plays for the day:

Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-108) (2*): 1:00 pm EDT

Atlanta Falcons -3 (-125) (2*): 4:25 pm EDT

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) (1*): 4:25 pm EDT

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-102) (3*): 8:30 pm EDT

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Lt locks

Vikings
Bills

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Jack Jones
20* Mia
20* Car
15* NE
15* Oak
15* NYG

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks

System Plays:
Tennessee -4
Chicago +3

Rest of games:
San Diego -7

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ASA
7 * ravens

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RTG Sports

2* Jaguars @ Titans Over 42

2* Dallas Cowboys +9

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Robert Ferringo
7*-over-43-bal-tb...
4*-over-45-det-minn




Write-Ups and the Rest


SUNDAY PRO FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

1-Unit Play. Take #251 Denver (-9) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
In theory this is a good spot for the Jets. But the fact of the matter is the defense is ill-equipped to slow down Peyton Manning. The Jets secondary is an EZ-Pass. They can't possibly matchup with with the Broncos wideouts. Everyone sees the writing on the wall with Rex Ryan and his tenure. It's over. The Jets don't have a quarterback. They don't have quality skill players. They don't have discipline. If the Broncos get up early they could turn the lights out on this one. The Jets lost 31-0 last week and I thought the spread on this game would be closer to 12 so I think there's some value here. Even if the Jets put up a fight for awhile I can still see the Broncos getting a 10-point victory.

2-Unit Play. Take #253 Pittsburgh (+2) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The wrong team is favored here. The Steelers have beaten the Browns 18 of 19 times. I know Cleveland is 2-2 and they have looked improved. But they beat a Saints team that has looked awful and they had to use a crazy comeback against a bad Titans team after getting down 28-3. Cleveland's defense is awful right now and they could be without two of their best players, Phil Taylor and Joe Haden. The Steelers are in the Top 10 in total offense and total defense. This isn't one of hte better Pittsburgh teams we've seen over the last few years. But it is good enough. I'll take the Steelers defense over the Browns' and I'll take Big Ben, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown over their Cleveland counterparts.

2-Unit Play. Take #258 Atlanta (-3) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The Bears just can't stop anyone right now. Their defensive coordinator, Mel Tucker, is a total incompetent. And Chicago's soft zone/Cover-2 style, where the team doesn't get any pressure and simply sits back and waits for the opposing quarterback to pick it apart will play right into Atlanta's strength. The Falcons are undermanned in a lot of different areas as well. But Mike Smith is 40-12 at home. Atlanta played hard and played above themselves for three quarters on the road against a good Giants team. They will give an even better effort in front of their own fans. I trust Matt Ryan to make the right decision and to shred the Bears defense. I trust Jay Cutler to be a total loser and to turn the ball over multiple times. This one goes to the home team.

2-Unit Play. Take #265 New England (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
This one fits into the same mold as the Steelers game. The Patriots have beaten the Bills 22 of 23 times. They are 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Orchard Park. They just dominate the Bills. And like the Browns, the Bills are coming off a game they had absolutely no business winning. Buffalo has not played well the last three weeks, getting rolled by San Diego, beaten back by Houston, and then outplayed in a fluke win at Detroit. New England's losses have been to respectable opponents. And if last week was any indication then something could be jarred loose with New England. I'll take Brady and Belichick in a spot like this - especially in a divisional game - any day of the week.

1-Unit Play. Take #267 Baltimore (-3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take #272 Seattle (-8) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
I cashed against Dallas last week and I think we can do the same this week. I will admit that this team is on a rush. They are riding a wave of emotion right now and feeling pretty good. But I think they could get smoked up in Seattle this week. The Seahawks lay waste to good teams that come to the Emerald City. And Dallas is not one of those. The Cowboys are in a letdown spot after their Lone Star showdown with Houston. That one went to OT and I think Dallas was fortunate to win it. Again. That's after being lucky to win against St. Louis a few weeks ago as well. Again, their 4-1 record is misleading. There's nothing misleading about what the Seahawks have done over the past three years. They are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games and they are 40-18 ATS at home. If it ain't broke.

2-Unit Play. Take #273 Washington (+3.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Arizona doesn't know who its quarterback is. And if they have to start Logan Thomas then you can put this one in the bank, because he is pathetic. Washington showed some signs against Seattle on Monday night and they are in desperation mode. In fact, if you kick out that terrible game against the Giants - which was one of those weird Thursday night situations - the Redskins have two decent performances at Philadelphia and against Seattle. Those aren't bad losses and I think they could be a touch undervalued. If Drew Stanton starts then this wager could be in trouble. If Carson Palmer starts then I think he'll have two turnovers and we'll have a good shot at an upset. If Thomas starts then I think the Redskins win this one in a big way.

2-Unit Play. Take #275 N.Y. Giants (+2.5) over Philadelphia (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The underdog is the play in this series - plain and simple. The underdog is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. That's nearly a decade of underdog domination. The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Philly and the road team is 5-1-1 ATS when these two face. The Eagles have been scraping their way by weak teams. They really aren't playing all that well and they are worn down on defense and along the offensive line. I think the Giants have the secondary strength to hang with the Eagles passing attack. And I think the G-Men will be able to do enough to play keep-away and shorten this game. The Giants are hot. The Eagles are not. And we'll look for the underdog trend to continue in this one.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #251 Denver (-2) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.) AND Take #272 Seattle (-1) over Dallas (4 p.m.)

This Week's Totals
7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

By my metrics the Ravens should've gone 'over' in all five of their games to this point in the season. Instead, they are 2-3 against the total and coming off another 'under' last week against the Colts. I thought this number should've been 45.5 and I knew this was a good spot when I saw it. Baltimore's 22.4 defensive yards per point is way, way above normal. And that makes the Ravens a prime regression candidate. Especially considering they have one of the five worst pass defenses in the league right now. They are simply giving up too many yards compared to the amount of points that they have surrendered. And that DYPP is starting to slowly but surely come down. It is 21.8 over the last three games. 21.1 in the last game. I think they are due for one within the normal range of NFL scoring. Of course, the flip side of the ball is also true. Their offensive yards per point was 22.1 last week and that means we should see more scoring this Sunday. Especially against one of the worst defenses in football. Tampa Bay is learning Lovie Smith's Cover-2. The Cover-2 has quickly become a relic. It simply doesn't work against the precision passing games of the new NFL. And it especially doesn't work when you don't have the guys to actually play the system or guys that know what they're doing. That's Tampa's issue. They gave up 37 points to Drew Brees last week. They allowed 24 the week before in Pittsburgh, and that should've been much more. Prior to that they got lit for 56 against the Falcons. That's an average of 35.7 points per game over the last three weeks. Sure, that is going to come down. And Tampa's DYPP is absurd on the other end of the spectrum (13.2). But that's a schematic issue more than a statistical outlier.

Further, the Ravens don't play on the road in NFC stadiums very often. But when they do those games are generally high scoring. The Ravens are 9-2 against the total on the road against NFC opponents going back to 2007. They are also 13-5 against the total in their last 18 games against NFC opponents overall and 17-8 against the total against the NFC dating back to 2007. When the Ravens play out of conference there's points. Period. Just look at the Panthers game (38-10) for a recent example. The same thing goes for the Bucs. They are 9-4 against the total in their last 13 games when hosting an AFC opponent. They played 'over' in their first interconference game this year, at Pittsburgh, and I think it will be more of the same here.

The Bucs have been figuring things out on offense in their own right. They switch to Mike Glennon has paid off. And they have some nice individual talents on that side of the ball. They have scored 58 points the last two weeks and they are trending upward. I think they can get to 17 or 20 points this weekend. And I think that the Ravens can get to 24 or 27. Those are statistically probable numbers and that's what I'm banking on. I think that we'll see somewhere between 46-50 points in this game and I think it will get 'over' thanks to a high-scoring fourth quarter.

4-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 Detroit at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 Carolina at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 New England at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

3-Unt Play. Take 'Over' 53.5 Chicago at Atlanta (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 49.0 Green Bay at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.0 San Diego at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 Jacksonville at Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.5 N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Daniels

1* Jets +10
1* Minn -1.5
1* Miami +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Insiders
4 unit under 43.5 Det/Min
3 unit Jets +10
3 unit under 49 G. Bay/MIA
1-2 yesterday on insider picks
1-0 yesterday on lock club pick

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot Chicks PICKS

In baseball......

Take SAN FRANCISCO +125 to stand tall again today!


In NBA......

Take DETROIT +4.5 to be hitting on all pistons today!



In NFL....

Take BALTIMORE -3.5 to fly high above the Bay in Tampa!

Take DETROIT +3 to bite the Vikings!

Take ARIZONA -6 to make the natives feel restless!

Take CHICAGO +3 to chase the dirty birds away!

Take PHILADELPHIA -2.5 to make the big men feel small as my biggest game this month!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR STEVENS WINNING SPORTS PLAYS 10-12-2014 MLB
MLB (5-star or 5-unit)(957) San Francisco +125


*Listed Pitchers

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Esparza (VSI)

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #267 Baltimore -3 over Tampa Bay (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 CBS)
Baltimore won 3-straight before losing on the road in the Colts last Sunday. Tampa almost won on the road against the Saints but lost in overtime 37-31. Should be a great game and I see a close game early but the Bucs have struggled at home losing 2-straight home games and I see another tough home lose in Tampa. Joe Flacco had a pretty tough game against the Colts and threw for 0 touchdowns so look for Flacco to have a big game Sunday on the road and I see him throwing for at least 2 touchdowns in Florida. Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS following a SU loss.

3 Unit Play. #272 Seattle -8 over Dallas (4:25p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 CBS)

7 Unit Play. #275 Over 50 NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:35p.m., Sunday, Oct 12 NBC)
(Total Game of the Year) So the last 3 Sunday Night games have gone OVER the total and if you like defense this game will probably not be that game. Either one or both teams will hit the 30 mark in this division game and I see both QB's have big throwing games. The NY Giants have won three straight games and all three games the G-Men have scored 30 points or more. The Philadelphia Eagles offense can score quickly and often but their defense has been their Achilles Heel in their last 4 games. Eagles defense has allowed 26.4ppg so far this year and if the Eagles can put pressure on Eli early this game will be a scorefest. I thought for sure this game would have a total of 52 or higher and I'm shocked that this total hasn't got beat up to at least 51 but I'm sure after the afternoon games are over the public will be betting this game over. The NY Giants are 5-1 O/U in Week #6 games and the Eagles are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carolina sports:

5- tb, chi over,
4- clev, carolina, buff,
3- minn, giants, jax under, wash under

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Mike Missanelli

Falcons
Vikings
Titans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

added

10* Miami+3
10* Dallas/Seattle over 46.5
6pt teaser Cincinnati/Seattle

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Sheep
$1000:
251 Under 48 Den
256 Ten -3 (1st H)
260 Mia +1/2 (1st H)
260 Under 48 Mia
1260 Under 24.5 Mia (1st H)
266 Buf +1.5

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Northcoast:

3 1/2- gb,
3- wash, oak

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Pure lock:

Minn

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Preferred picks:

4- pitt,
3- oak

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Joe D

25*Browns
20* Jets
15* Bucs
15* Seahawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sheep added
$1000:
1266 Buf +1/2 (1st H)
270 Oak +7.5
1270 Oak +4 (1st H)
1273 Over 23 Was-Atl (1st H

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino




Today's Selections






MLB: giants/cardinals under 6.5




NFL: Pittsburgh +1.5, NY Giants+3, jaguars/titans over 43




NCAAF: none




CFL: none




NHL: jets/kings over 5

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Arthur Ralph
Super Pick Bengals - 6 1/2
Monsters Giants + 3, Seattle -8 & UNDER Bills / Pats 45 1/2

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Sports Unlimited/Marco D'Angelo

7* Eagles
4* Steelers

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Kelso

San Diego
Cincinnati
under Pittsburgh /Cleveland
NY Giants

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Cajun Sports Wire

5* Baltimore -3
4.5* Miami +3
4.5* NYG Under 51

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Diamond Dog

#253: Steelers: +1.0 (-105) (2.5*)

#271/272: Cowboys/Seahawks: Under 47.0 (-105) (1.5*)

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Big al division total of the year
NYg/Phil under

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SPORTSBOSS

Tampa
New England

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Mike Neri
3* Pit
3* Cin
3* Bal

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Lenny stevens:

20- oak, mia,
10- buff, atl

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EXECUTIVE

350 carolina
300 washington
300 philadelphia
150 minnesota
100 chicago
100 new england

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big money:

Balt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick city:

3- sd,
2- ne, cinn, dall, giants, atl

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Wolkosky Milan


20* Steelers / Browns Under 47
20* Bears / Falcons Under 55½
20* Atlanta Falcons -3
20* Patriots / Bills Over 44
20* New York Giants +2½
20* Giants / Eagles Under 50

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Sports bank
500 seattle

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Millionaires club
lock
washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso
100* SAN DIEGO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James Sports


19-3 NFL Run


Under Packers 49
Ravens -3
Panthers +7
Cowboys +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports investors (5-1)
seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wildcat
10* Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley:
“2 UNIT” EARLY NFL INTANGIBLE TOTAL (Patriots at Bills OVER 44 in a 1:00 eastern kickoff): Regular clients are aware that yesterday I took advantage of rare excellent WEATHER conditions in South Bend and Notre Dame easily exceeded a high spot of sixty-four points in a game that made a run at the century mark. Later in this NFL campaign weather conditions in Buffalo will turn nasty with snow-and-wind prevelant but for today the local forecast is EXCELLENT and once again I am taking advantage. It was exactly one week ago when the defense of Buffalo played with special EMOTION for their coordinator Jim Schawartz who was visiting Detroit for the first time since being unceremoniously fired by the Lions as their head coach. Many reading this analysis most likely saw last Sunday’s highlight where Schwartz was literally carried off the field by some of his personnel. Even though today’s game is against a hated rival odds are that an excellent Buffalo defense will NOT bring to the field the same type of energy. The big nes regarding this game is the fact that New England superstar quarterback Tom Brady rolled his ankle in a Friday practice session and is not 100% healthy. In addition this is the third conecutive week that the Patriots have made personnel changes up front on the offensive line. But this has just kept today’s spot in check and it is worth noting that after winning twice outright in a 3-game span New England long term has gone an eye opening 11-1 OVER the total in the ensuing contest

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Underdog
Jags (lock)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Asa 7- balt

big money balt

carolina sports 5- tb, chi over, 4- clev, carolina, buff, 3- minn, giants, jax under, wash under

doc's enterprises 5- oak, 4- pitt, ne

dr. Bob 2- buff, mia, cinn

gameday 2-pitt, chi, mia

harry bondi 6- mia, 3- cinn, phil

inside info 3- buff, 2- den

jack jones 20- mia, carolina, 15- ne, oak, giants

joe d 25- clev, 20- jets, 15- tb, sea, oak

lenny stevens 3t 20- oak, mia, 10- buff, atl

neri 3- pitt, cinn, balt

northcoast 3 1/2- gb, 3- wash, oak

pick city 3- sd, 2- ne, cinn, dall, giants, atl

pointwise 3- giants, buff, den, cinn, 2- pitt

preferred picks 4- pitt, 3- oak

pure lock minn

texas sportswire 4- giants, 3- buff

underdog jax

wildcat 10- den, 7- sd, 5- phil

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger



NFL TEASER 6 PTS: [260] MIA DOLPHINS +8.5 / [266] BUF BILLS +8.5
4% NFL [262] MIN VIKINGS -128
NFL [278] ST. LOUIS +3.5-120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike O'Connor

I've added three more Best Bets below so in total for Week 6 we have the following:

(266) Buffalo +3 (-135)
(260) Miami +3 (-120)
(264) Cincinnati -6.5
(277) San Francisco -3 (-130)

That's it for this week. Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor

**BUFFALO (+3 -135) 24 New England 19
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 266 Over/Under 44.5
The Patriots rallied for a big 43-17 win on Sunday night against the Bengals in a spot where they were geared up to play well. After being embarrassed the previous Monday night against the Chiefs, New England had turned up the intensity in practice and it carried over into the game. The Patriots dominated time of possession behind a balanced attack that generated 516 yards at 6.5 yppl while holding Cincinnati to 328 yards at 6.8 yppl. While those numbers certainly helped to improve their statistical rating, they are still well below average offensively on the season. They’ll face a difficult matchup against a Bills team that’s tied for the league lead in sacks with 17 and has one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing 72 yards at 3.0 ypr to teams that average 108 yards at 4.0 ypr. It appears that the Bills may also get their Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams back from injury after missing last week. If the Patriots can’t run the ball in this game, the Bills pass rush will have an opportunity to take advantage of a New England offensive line that has struggled. Brady has completed just 39 percent of his passes for a 2.0 Total QBR when under pressure this season.

On offense, Buffalo made the switch to Kyle Orton last week and he played well in his first start, passing for 294 yards at 6.5 yps, making it clear that he is a significant upgrade over recently benched EJ Manuel. With Orton in the lineup the offense had some punch and now has the ability to stretch the field with the weapons that they have at the wide-out spots. They don’t have to be as dependent on the run game and that should make it more effective. New England has had trouble stopping the run, allowing 121 yards at 4.6 ypr on average and will face a Bills ground attack featuring Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller that should be able to grind out yards.

Buffalo qualifies in a number of good situations that are 664-495-40, 216-103-14, 79-32-3 and 26-4 while the Patriots qualify in a negative 36-78-4 situation that plays against them. My model, adjusted for Kyle Orton at quarterback, favors the Bills by about 2 points. Buffalo is in a good spot to perform well at home where they are 7-3 ATS since the beginning of 2013 while New England does not perform as well away from home where they are just 3-9 ATS. I was hoping that this line would climb back up to +3 -110 which it still might on Sunday as more public money flows in on the Patriots so it may make some sense to wait but I’ll release it where it currently is at Buffalo +3 up to -135 for 2-stars. It’s fine to take it down to +2 but if possible buy onto the 3.
**MIAMI (+3 -120) 26 Green Bay 21
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 260 Over/Under 49.5
Green Bay has looked impressive in winning their last two games against division rivals Chicago and Minnesota by a combined 80-27 but were in good spots to play well in both games. That’s not the case in this game, however, as they’ll travel down to Miami for a non-conference match-up with the Dolphins and a meeting with former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin who is now head coach of the Dolphins. Philbin is likely familiar with some of the Green Bay personnel, although about half the team is different than when he left three years ago. One important person that Philbin is certainly familiar with is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who Philbin worked closely with during his time with the Packers. Knowing his weaknesses better than most can certainly be of benefit in this game as the Dolphins prepare to defend the Packer offense.

Miami has played well defensively so far this year as they have allowed 4.7 yppl against teams that typically gain 5.1 yppl with better than average numbers against both the run and the pass. They’ll have to perform well if they expect to slow down a good Green Bay offensive attack that has come alive the past two weeks after a slow start to the season. After playing their best football of the season in their 38-14 win against the Raiders two weeks ago in London, the Dolphins have confidence heading into this game and should play well as a result. The Dolphins qualify in a 150-89-12 situation while the Packers qualify in several negative situations that are 76-126-2, 37-87-5, and 38-75-4 that play against them. In addition, the Packers sport the NFL’s worst rush defense, allowing 148 yards at 4.8 ypr and will face a Miami offensive attack that looks like it will be getting Pro Bowl offensive lineman Mike Pouncey and RB Knowshon Moreno back this week. Miami has run the ball very well this season already, gaining 141 yards at 5.2 ypr against teams that allow 118 yards at 4.4 ypr and should be able to exploit a soft Packers rush defense.

Having a few key players back on defense won’t hurt either with starting middle linebacker Koa Misi (ankle) and safety Reshad Jones (suspension) looking like they will play. In addition, having the extra time off, Miami installed their game plan for Green Bay during early practices last week which has allowed for plenty of time to digest their strategy and assignments. With the Packers coming off of two divisional victories and facing a non-conference foe in the heat in Miami (where it is supposed to be around 91 degrees at kickoff), I’ll take the Dolphins +3 -120 for 2-Stars up to +3 -130.
**CINCINNATI (-6.5) 28 Carolina 13
Sun Oct-12-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 264 Over/Under 44.5
Carolina got a little bit lucky in their 31-24 win last week against the Bears as they returned a strange fumbled punt play for a touchdown and benefitted from three Bears turnovers in the final seven minutes to pull out the SU and ATS win. Despite all of the issues that they have been dealing with on their offensive line and in their secondary as well as injuries that have decimated their RB group, amazingly the Panthers are alone in first place in the NFC South at 3-2. I expect a drop back to .500 after this week as they travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that was embarrassed on national television on Sunday night in a 17-43 loss to the Patriots. The Bengals were in a tough spot in that game but in their prior three they made relatively easy work of the Ravens, Falcons and Titans. I expect them to bounce back in this game with a solid win at home where they are 10-1 SU and ATS since the beginning of last season (including the playoff loss), winning by an average score of 31-16. They have a great match-up in the passing game both offensively and defensively in this game. A Bengals passing offense that has averaged 8.8 yps against teams that allow 6.9 yps should exploit a Carolina pass defense that has been just about average while an average Panthers pass offense will face a Cincinnati pass defense that has allowed 5.5 yps to teams that typically gain 6.6 yps. In addition, the Panthers have been terrible defending the run, allowing 130 yards at 5.5 ypr and have all kinds of injury issues in their own offensive backfield where they have been only able to generate 75 rushing yards at 3.2 ypr. From a schematic standpoint, the Panthers have only averaged 14.5 points in two games against AFC North opponents that run the 3-4 defense so far this season, allowing five sacks and averaging just 54.5 yards rushing.

The Panthers are tied for second in the league with a +5 turnover differential while the Bengals are not far behind at +4 but have suffered from some negative fumble luck while the Panthers have not. The Bengals will likely miss AJ Green in this game but even without him, I expect the far better team in Cincinnati to bounce back in a good spot. My model, adjusting for the absence of Green, still favors Cincinnati in this game by about 16 points so we have quite a bit of line value on the Bengals according to my ratings. With the better, more motivated team looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss and favorable match-ups going their way I’ll take the Bengals -6.5 for 2-Stars up to -7.
**San Francisco (-3 -130) 26 ST. LOUIS 15
Mon Oct-13-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 277 Over/Under 43.5
With back to back home wins against the Eagles and the Chiefs, San Francisco is right back in the mix in the NFC West with a 3-2 record. Facing the Rams this week in St. Louis in an important divisional game on Monday night in primetime, the 49ers should be focused to play well and have some match-up advantages that they should be able to exploit. San Francisco’s strong power running game should be able to pound the ball on a Rams defense that is allowing 154 yards at 5.3 ypr that last week let an Eagles struggling rush offense generate 146 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr. Meanwhile, the San Francisco defense should win in the trenches as well. The 49ers rush defense is allowing just 75 yards at 4.1 ypr to teams that typically gain 119 yards at 4.5 ypr and should be able to shut down a Rams attack that generates 4.3 ypr against teams that have allowed 4.5 ypr. St Louis quarterback Austin Davis has put up some good numbers but much of his production has been against some of the poorer pass defenses in the league in Tampa Bay (30th in the NFL in pass defense), Philadelphia (29th) and Dallas (18th). Davis has also had some costly turnovers including two fumbles last week, and threw a pick-six against both Minnesota and Dallas. He’ll face a far better defense this week as the 49ers have allowed just 284 yards per game at 5.1 yppl overall.

The Rams defense has really missed defensive end Chris Long as so far this season as St. Louis has only 1 sack. With Long out, opposing offenses are focusing on containing Robert Quinn and others haven’t been able to step up. While the Rams pass defense looks great in allowing a league low 190 yards per game, they have actually given up 7.1 yps against teams that gain 6.2 yps on average. In addition, teams simply haven’t thrown the ball much against the Rams. In fact, the Rams have the fewest pass attempts against in the league mainly because they haven’t been able to stop the run. That makes for a difficult match-up in this game against a 49es offense that can pound the ball but also has the ability to stretch the field with a number of playmakers in the receiver and tight end groups.

The 49ers qualify in 664-495-40 and 215-103-4 situations while the Rams do qualify in a couple of weaker situations. My adjusted points model favors San Francisco by about 8 points in this game and with the match-up advantages favoring the superior team, who should also be motivated playing in primetime in a divisional game, I’ll take the 49ers -3 -130 for 2-Stars up to -4.

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paramount sports..
lee sterling

25 jacksonville
20 miami
20 oakland

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red suit
vikes/lions over 43

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mti teasers 6pt
5-star seahawks-giants
3-star seahawks-pitt
3-star pitt-giants

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Sports Handicapper King


NFL:

Miami +2.5
Philadelphia -2.5

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Charlie

500*
pittsburgh over
jets
oakland

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Rainman

10* MIAMI
5* CHICAGO
3* Giants
3* Pittsburgh
Arizona
San Diego/Oakland Under

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Kelso
50 cinnci

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Dives Handicapping


Oakland Raiders +7

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Chicago Bears / Atlanta Falcons OVER 54½ (Bet Level 3) (Total Points Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 4:25 PM EST

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Real Swoop
Added
Raiders +7.5 (1*)
Cowboys +9 (2*)
Giants +2 (1*)

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

Sunday Night:

(275) NY Giants +1' over Philadelphia

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