11-20-14

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::clap::

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King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet109 KAN / 110 OAK UNDER 43.0 Bodog (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frecord.bettingpartners.com% 2F_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk%2F1%2F)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The OU line in this AFC WEST division clash opened at 43 points. At last look, it was down to 42.5. The KEY NUMBER for us in this game is 41.5. Make sure your line is at least 41.5 or more points before placing your wager. We say this because 41 is a very common number for numerous final scores in the NFL. Many popular scoring combinations can result in a final score that falls right on 41 points. Score like 35-6… 34-7… 31-10… 28-13… 27-14… 24-17… and 21-20.
Why is our optimum number 41.5 instead of 42.5? Well, 42 are not that special of a number. There have been NO games this season that have finished on tip of this number. For a game to finish EXACTLY on 42 points that would require a combination of 6 touchdowns and ZERO field goals. Such a combination (all TD’s / 0 FG’s) is unlikely. Particularly with two offenses that tend to shut down one they get into the red zone. On the flip side, there have already been 15 games this season that have finished with exactly 41 points… 40 points… or 39 points.
Pick Made: Nov 19 2014 12:30PM PST

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BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT - raiders

PERSONAL FAVORITE - west virginia

BEST BET - north carolina

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Spartan

Triple Dime: Kansas State +2

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Football Crusher
Buffalo + Kent State OVER 44.5 - postponed
Oakland Raiders +7 over KC Chiefs
(System Record: 31-5, lost last game)
Overall Record: 31-31-2

Rest of the Plays
Oakland Raiders + KC UNDER 42.5

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Hockey Crusher
Edmonton Oilers +125 over Vancouver Canucks - pending
Tampa Bay Lightning -135 over Toronto Maple Leafs
(System Record: 23-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 23-14-1

Rest of the Plays
Minnesota Wild -122 over Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals +104 over Colorado Avs
Chicago Blackhawks -147 over Calgary Flames

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Basketball Crusher
Boston College +5.5 over New Mexico
(System Record: 11-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 11-11

Rest of the Plays
Texas Southern +18.5 over Tennessee
Indiana +2 over Southern Methodist
California +5 over Syracuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Fluminense + Chapecoense UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 663-23, lost last 4 games and a push)
Overall Record: 663-552-102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Minnesota won last three games, scoring 12 goals.
-- Canadiens won six of their last seven games. St Louis won three of its last four.
-- Nashville won five of its last six games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five road games.
-- Flames won seven of their last nine games. Chicago won three of last four.
-- Colorado won last two games, but is just 3-5 at home.
-- Canucks won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Kings won three of their last four home games.
-- Sharks are 5-1 in game following their last six losses.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost last three games, outscored 12-6.
-- Toronto lost last three games, allowing 15 goals in last two. Tampa Bay lost three of its last four.
-- Senators lost four of their last five games.
-- Detroit is 2-6 this season in game following a win. Jets lost three of last four games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last three games, outscored 14-7.
-- Washington lost two of last three games, scoring three goals.
-- Ducks lost six of their last seven games.
-- Carolina lost three of its last four games.
-- Panthers lost five of their last seven games.

Series records
-- Flyers won three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- Lightning lost four of last five visits to Toronto.
-- Blues won their last five games with Montreal.
-- Predators won three of last four visits to Ottawa.
-- Jets won four of last five games with Detroit.
-- Dallas Stars won six of last nine games with Arizona.
-- Avalanche won last four games with Washington.
-- Flames won three of last four games with Chicago.
-- Ducks won six of last seven games with Vancouver.
-- Home side won four of last five Carolina-LA games; Hurricanes lost 4-3/3-1 in last two at Staples.
-- Sharks lost five of last six games with Florida.

Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Over is 10-1-1 in last dozen Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 9-3-3 in last fifteen Montreal games.
-- Last four Ottawa games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Winnipeg games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Arizona games.
-- Five of last six Colorado games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine Calgary games went over total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Anaheim games.
-- Four of last five Carolina games stayed under.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Florida games.

Back-to-back
-- Flyers lost two of three if they played the night before.
-- Vancouver lost three of four if it played night before.

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Cappers Access

(NFL) Chiefs -7.5
(CFB) W. Virginia -2.5
(CFB) Duke -6

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GOLD MEDAL CLUB

NFL
110-Oakland +7.5

CBB:
732-Charlotte +3

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Thursday

A 2-0 sweep in college basketball on Wednesday! I'm not touching the NFL shitfest between Kansas City and Oakland tonight. Two plays on my card for Thursday. One college basketball afternoon game and one college football game. Best of luck!

-EZ


MCAAF

4* (111) Kansas State Wildcats +2.5

The high powered West Virginia offense has not been so potent lately. The Mountaineers have not reached 300 yards of total offense in their last three games and they have lost two of those games straight up. The K-State defense has had a week to recover from the beating that they took against TCU and I expect them to bounce back. The Wildcats have handled West Virginia easily in the last two meetings between these two teams and the K-State defense made things very tough on quarterback Clint Trickett and this Mountaineer offense in last season's 35-12 win. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder has an outstanding record against the spread as an underdog and his teams are 13-0 against the spread off of a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. Take the points.


NCAAB

1* (729) Drexel Dragons +9

I like this spot to fade what I think will be a dangerous Miami team come tournament time after their big win at #8 Florida. The Canes are a bit over valued in this spot against a talented Drexel team that is sitting at 0-2. Bruiser Flint's Dragons were just 16-14 last season, but had major injuries. Junior guard Damion Lee is back after missing most of last year with a knee injury after averaging over 17 points two seasons ago. Drexel should hang around in this afternoon, tournament neutral site game. Miami should struggle to match their intensity that they played with against the Gators. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

wayne root

millionaires RAIDERS

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | ARIZONA at DALLAS
Play On - Any team against the money line (ARIZONA) extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) in the first half of the season
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 25.9 units )

NHL | FLORIDA at SAN JOSE
Play On - Any team against the money line (SAN JOSE) extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) in the first half of the season
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% | 25.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David

Thursday’s pro basketball slate offers up another double-header on TNT, which features not one but two non-conference affairs. Before we break down the matchups, I wanted to bring up the developing total trend that I mentioned in last week’s “Total Talk” installment.

TNT has had eight games featured on national television this regular season and all eight have gone ‘under’ the total, which includes both results last Thursday.

Tuesday, Oct. 28
Dallas 100 San Antonio 101 (Under 203)
Houston 108 L.A. Lakers 90 (Under 207)

Thursday, Oct. 30
New York 95 Cleveland 90 (Under 204)
Oklahoma City 90 L.A. Clippers 93 (Under 205.5)

Thursday, Nov. 6
San Antonio 81 Houston 98 (Under 179)
Dallas 87 Portland 108 (Under 209.5)

Thursday, Nov. 13
Chicago 100 Toronto 93 (Under 196.5)
Brooklyn 99 Golden State 107 (Under 210.5)

There hasn’t been a great lean for choosing sides as we’ve seen home teams produce a 5-3 record.

Point-spreads have mattered in the televised matchup, with favorites going 6-2 straight up and 4-4 against the spread.

There has only been one game pitting the East vs. West and the Warriors took care of business in last week’s win over the Nets.

Neither game for Thursday had overnight numbers posted due to key injuries, which we’ll touch on below.

L.A. Clippers (6-4 SU, 2-8 ATS) at Miami (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS)

This particular non-conference matchup is tough to handicap because of injuries and the recent history between the pair isn’t a factor since LeBron James isn’t with the Heat anymore. With that being said, I would use current form and situations.

After running past Orlando 114-90 on Wednesday as five-point road favorites, the Clippers will be facing a back-to-back spot. Los Angeles has only played on zero days rest once this season and it beat the Lakers 118-111 on Oct. 31 but failed to cover as 12-point road favorites.

Covering numbers has been a major issue for the Clippers this season, who are 2-8 ATS. Prior to last night's victory, their first cover came last Saturday in a 120-107 victory at home against Phoenix. Unfortunately, Doc Rivers’ team was humbled two nights later to the Bulls (105-89).

This will be the second game of a seven-game road trip for the Clippers and the latest quotes from their head coach could have you scratching your head.

“I’ll tell you in seven games,” Rivers said. “Really, I do like going on the road. I think it is an opportunity to find yourself. You can also lose yourself on the road. So we’ll see.”

Including last night’s meeting, Los Angeles has gone 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road and one of those wins came at the Staples Center versus the Lakers.

Miami snapped a three-game losing skid on Monday with a 95-83 victory at Brooklyn as an eight-point underdog. The Heat didn’t have Dwyane Wade (hamstring) and Luol Deng (wrist) in the lineup on Monday and both players are currently listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday.

Wade has already missed three games this season and the team has gone 1-2 in those contests. With the All-Star active, the Heat are 5-3.

Total bettors looking for a lean in this game could go ‘under’ in this spot. Miami has shot the ball well from the field (46.5%) and 3-point land (38.8%) too but the pace has been super slow. The Heat are averaging 75.1 shots per game, which is the lowest in the league. Los Angeles is at 79.2 attempts, which is ranked 26th.

Miami has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS at home this season and will enter tonight’s game looking to snap a two-game skid at American Airlines Arena. The Heat have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS versus the West his season.

As mentioned above, past history shouldn’t be used strongly but make a note that the Heat have won the last three encounters against the Clippers.

Chicago (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) at Sacramento (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)

The Bulls began their annual circus trip on Monday with a dominating 105-89 victory over the Clipppers as seven-point underdogs. Chicago trailed 50-48 at halftime but outscored L.A. 57-39 in the final two quarters. What was even more impressive about the Bulls’ win on Monday is that Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Pau Gasol (calf) sat out. Rose is expected to play Thursday while Gasol is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game.

Sacramento opened some eyes this season by starting off with a 5-1 record. Unfortunately, this year’s Kings have looked like the same-old Kings lately as they’ve dropped four of their last five and some of the losses were ugly. In setbacks to the Mavericks and Grizzlies last week, Sacramento blew 20-point leads on the road in both contests.

This past Tuesday, Sacramento opened up a 54-45 halftime lead against New Orleans at home. Unfortunately they ran out of gas again and lost 106-100 to the Pelicans as three-point home favorites.

DeMarcus Cousins (22.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG) and Rudy Gay (21.8 PPG) have been playing at a high level for the Kings this season and you could argue that they form the best frontcourt in the league, ranked second in points (69.4 PPG) and first in boards(37.9 RPG). Gay has been deemed 'questionable' for Thursday due to an Achilles injury.

The main issue for the Kings is depth in their backcourt. Darren Collison was a nice pickup at point guard but second-year player Ben McLemore is still raw and the loss of Isiah Thomas to the Suns has been their gain. The Kings backcourt is averaging 33.2 PPG, which is ranked 29th in the NBA.

Chicago continues to impress me each season and it’s easy to see why head coach Tom Thobodeau is considered one of the best in the game. The Bulls have six players averaging double figures and All-Star center Joakim Noah (8.2 PPG) isn’t one of them. Derrick Rose has only played in five games, never more than 32 minutes, and the Bulls are 4-1 in those games. Without Rose, the team is 4-2.

If you want to find a good NBA team, then look for one that wins on the road. Chicago is 6-0 as a visitor this season and it captured closed calls against inferior teams in Minnesota (106-105) and Philadelphia (118-115), which is a sign of a good team to me.

Kings should have confidence for this matchup since they destroyed the Bulls in their last two meetings at home by 42 and 29 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Bulls won seven of their last nine games (2-2 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Miami lost three of last four games. Clippers are 0-4 in game following their last four wins.
-- Sacramento lost four of its last five games (2-1 HU).

Series Records
-- Clippers lost last five visits to Miami by 24-11-18-22-5 points.
-- Chicago won nine of last 12 against the Kings, but lost last two visits to Sacramento by 32-29 points.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Clipper games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Sacramento games went over total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwyane Wade, Miami - Doub Thurs

Wade has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to return Thursday against the Clippers.

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | LA CLIPPERS at MIAMI
Play Against - Road teams (LA CLIPPERS) off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
27-7 since 1997. ( 79.4% | 19.3 units )

NBA | CHICAGO at SACRAMENTO
Play On - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (CHICAGO) good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=33%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
63-29 since 1997. ( 68.5% | 31.1 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | PENN ST at CHARLOTTE
Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses, team that had a losing record last season
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

CBB | NIAGARA at ST PETERS
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (ST PETERS) after scoring 50 points or less, with four starters returning from last season
359-215 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 90.2 units )

CBB | DREXEL at MIAMI
Play Against - Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (MIAMI) off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )

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PAUL LEINER

100* NFL – Raiders +7.5
100* CFB – Duke -6
50* CBB – Dayton +2

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RIVER CITY SHARPS (CBB)

We have this as a 5-7 point game, plenty of padding for the dog in this spot. We are also not big believers in Anthony Grant and even if Alabama gets up by 15 or more, the possibility of the back door always exists with this team. Southern Miss is going to be a pretty solid club in C-USA and these non-BCS conference teams love to play “middle of the pack” schools from the big boy conferences. Simply too many points here tonight and the Golden Eagles will be ready to play. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SOUTHERN MISS (+12) OVER ALABAMA

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MICHIGAN GODFATHER

5 units

(NFL) Kansas City -7.5 (-110)

4 units

(NFL) Kansas City/ Oakland – Over 42.5 points (-105)
(NCAAB) Miami -9 (-105)

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NORTHCOAST SPORTS

Underdog POW North Carolina +6.5

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Jason Sample:

1U: Dayton +6 / Akron +6 (+105) - 4pt ties win

YTD: 6-11 (-5.9U)

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | OKLAHOMA ST at BAYLOR
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% | -1.4 units )

CFB | AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO ST
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), in conference games
114-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.0% | 0.0 units )
15-8 this year. ( 65.2% | 0.0 units )

CFB | INDIANA at OHIO ST
Play On - Favorites of 17.5 or more points vs. the first half line (OHIO ST) with an incredible offense - averaging 450 or more total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Kansas State at West Virginia

Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 58)

Kansas State tries to bounce back from a devastating loss at TCU when it visits West Virginia on Thursday night, but the oddsmakers do not see it happening as the unranked Mountaineers are favored to defeat the No. 11 Wildcats. Kansas State was in the national championship picture before dropping a 41-20 decision to the Horned Frogs on Nov. 8, but still has an outside shot to win the Big 12 title with wins in its final three games and some help. The Wildcats are tied with No. 6 Baylor - one-half game behind No. 5 TCU - with a showdown looming with the Bears in Waco, Texas, on Dec. 6 to finish the regular season.

West Virginia has dropped two straight, including a 31-30 decision to TCU on Nov. 1 before falling at Texas 33-16 on Nov. 8. While the Mountaineers are not involved in the Big 12 race, they will be tough to beat on Senior Night. "We still have things to fight for like a good bowl game,'' junior safety K.J. Dillon said in Monday's press conference. "No one is down, everyone still wants to win for the seniors this Thursday and wants to win and finish out a good season."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 1.5-point home favorites and have been bet up a point to sit at -2.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 58.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in West Virginia with temperatures in the mid 20's for the game. There will also be a 20 percent chance of snow flurries to go along with an 11 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from west to east.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This one might mean a little more to West Virginia as it checks in sporting a modest 6-4 SU record this season but who's interested in standing in front of Bill Snyder's Kansas State Wildcats in an underdog role? The Wildcats were embarrassed in a nationally-televised showdown with TCU last time out, so you can be sure the Mountaineers will get their best effort here. With that being said, West Virginia will be highly-motivated as well, coming off back-to-back losses, including a blowout at the hands of Texas. Expecting a tight game here, leaning toward taking the points." Sean Murphy.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (7-2, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U): The Wildcats have two of the top receivers in the Big 12 in Tyler Lockett (60 receptions, 14.6 yards per catch, six touchdowns) and Curry Sexton (53, 13.6, four), but might be better off trying to run. Quarterback Jake Waters (63.6 completion rate, 13 TDs, four interceptions) has rushed for 406 yards and seven TDs, second in both departments to Charles Jones (430, 11), and they'll go against a defense that yields an average of 181.5 rushing yards - eighth in the 10-team Big 12. Kansas State won its first two road games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma by a combined five points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (6-4, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Quarterback Clint Trickett is putting together a solid season with a 68.3 completion rate and 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions. His favorite target is wide receiver Kevin White, who has 91 catches (second in the nation) for 1,207 yards (third) and eight TDs. The Mountaineers can also get it done on the ground with Wendell Smallwood (585 yards, two TDs), Rushel Shell (560, six) and Dreamius Smith (411, five).

TRENDS:

* Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.
* West Virginia is 0-7 in its last seven games following a bye week.
* Over is 5-0 in Kansas State's last five road games versus a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in West Virginia's last six games overall.

CONSENSUS: The consensus is fairly split with just 52 percent of wagers backing West Virginia at -2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chilly conditions at Mountaineer Field Thursday
Andrew Avery

The Kansas State Wildcats travel to West Virginia to face the Mountaineers and weather looks like it won't be the most favorable Thursday.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-20s and wind blowing from sideline to sideline at around 10 mph in Morgantown, West Virginia.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play THURS No Carolina + 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mavericks (-1 1/2) on Wednesday and likes New Mexico on Thursday.

The deficit is 853 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

deporte-es

SUDAMÉRICA: Copa Sudamericana - Semifinales

Boca Jrs. (Arg) - River Plate (Arg)

20.11.2014

River Plate 0

1.95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks Kansas City at Oakland The Chiefs head to Oakland tonight where they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Raiders. Kansas City is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Chiefs favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 109-110: Kansas City at Oakland (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 139.409; Oakland 124.976
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 14 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks Kansas State at West Virginia The Wildcats head to West Virginia tonight following a 41-20 loss at TCU and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Kansas State is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2). Here are all of tonight's NCAA Football picks.


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 111-112: Kansas State at West Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 105.131; West Virginia 100.859
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2); Under


Game 113-114: North Carolina at Duke (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 80.214; Duke 89.656
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Duke by 6; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6); Under


Game 115-116: Arkansas State at Texas State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 75.462; Texas State 72.645
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 3; 51
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks SMU at Indiana The Mustangs head to Indiana tonight following a 72-56 loss at Gonzaga and come into the contest with a 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat. SMU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's early NCAA Basketball picks.


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
Time Posted: 9:30 a.m. EST


Game 705-706: Detroit at Michigan (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 49.618; Michigan 77.329
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 18
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-18)


Game 707-708: Florida Atlantic at Harvard (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 48.293; Harvard 67.905
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 19
Vegas Line: Harvard by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-16 1/2)


Game 709-710: Fordham at Maryland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 54.984; Maryland 70.468
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 18
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+18)


Game 711-712: SMU at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 70.523; Indiana 65.452
Dunkel Line: SMU by 5
Vegas Line: SMU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2)


Game 713-714: South Florida at UAB (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 51.774; UAB 56.296
Dunkel Line: UAB by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UAB by 2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (-2)


Game 715-716: Southern Mississippi at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 53.035; Alabama 67.608
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12)


Game 717-718: Loyola-Marymount at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 56.065; Arizona State 66.764
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+12 1/2)


Game 719-720: Texas A&M vs. Dayton (10:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 66.658; Dayton 61.392
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-1 1/2)


Game 721-722: College of Charleston vs. Connecticut (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 54.243; Connecticut 67.160
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 13
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 15
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+15)


Game 723-724: New Mexico vs. Boston College (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 61.194; Boston College 58.580
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5 1/2)


Game 725-726: George Mason vs. West Virginia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 53.342; West Virginia 61.004
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 9
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+9)


Game 727-728: USC vs. Akron (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 56.377; Akron 52.152
Dunkel Line: USC by 4
Vegas Line: USC by 2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-2)


Game 729-730: Drexel vs. Miami (FL) (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 55.233; Miami (FL) 61.522
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+9 1/2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

2000 over 58 kansas st /west virginia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Jay Dotson


NCAAF


West Virginia -2
North Carolina +6.5



NFL


Kansas City Chiefs -7



NHL


Winnipeg -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

5**

Raiders +7.5

4.4*
Kstate +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence phone plays

Oakland
kansas state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sample:

1U: Dayton +6 / Akron +6 (+105) - 4pt ties win

Drexel +9
Drexel +5 (1H)
Denver +10
Detroit +18
BC +9 / Indiana +7 (+105)
Indiana ML (+130)
Penn St. / UConn / SoCar MLs (-108)

YTD: 6-11 (-5.9U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHASE DIAMOND

10* CBB ROAD WARRIOR (Free Selection)

Southern Methodist vs. Indiana, 11/20/2014 20:00
Money Line: -150 Southern Methodist

This game has the 1-1 SMU at the 2-0 Indiana. SMU lost a tough one at Gonzaga but they are still one of the best teams in College Basketball. Indiana is 2-0 but has not faced anyone that would give them a game like SMU will. SMU is coming off a NIT championship and alot is expected from them they are in year 3 under Larry Brown. SMU has the better team from top to bottom. The public is 50/50 on this game but the line went from 2 to 3 in most spots. Big value here as we get the much better team at a small line. Play SMU to win straight but if you have to lay the points for a 10* winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

THURSDAY FOOTBALL
5000* Play Kansas City -7 over Oakland (TOP NFL PLAY)

Oakland has lost 21 of the last 23 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have lost 19 of the last 23 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points.Oakland has lost 6 of the last 7 games when playing on a Thursday and they have lost 15 of the last 18 games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their last game.


5000* Play Duke -6 over North Carolina (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Duke has won 15 of the last 16 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 14 of the last 19 home games.Duke has won 4 consecutive games coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers and they are averaging 35 points a game on offense in home games this season.

===========================================


50* Play West Virginia -2 over Kansas State (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Arkansas State -6 over Texas State (BONUS NCAA PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY

TOP FOOTBALL PLAY

Play Duke -6 over North Carolina----RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
7:30 PM EST

North Carolina has lost 10 of the last 15 road games against the spread and they have lost 10 of the last 15 games against the spread coming off a game where they forced one or less turnover. North Carolina has lost 10 of the last 12 games when playing as an underdog and they are allowing an average of 48 points on defense in road games this season.


Play Arkansas State -6 over Texas State----RISK 25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
9:30 PM EST

Arkansas State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off a loss against the spread in their last game and they have covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Arkansas State has covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off three or more conference games.

==================================================

BONUS FOOTBALL PLAYS

Play West Virginia -2 over Kansas State----RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play Kansas City -7 over Oakland---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Football
THURSDAY

Play Kansas City -7 over Oakland (NFL)
8:30 PM EST

Oakland has lost 13 of the last 15 games against the spread coming off a win against the spread in their last game and they have lost 25 of the last 37 games against the spread when playing in November home games.Oakland has lost 16 of the last 22 games against the spread vs. Kansas City at home and they are allowing an average of 31 points on defense in home games this season.

Play West Virginia -2 over Kansas State (NCAA)
7:00 PM EST

West Virginia has won 5 of the last 6 games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points and they have won 8 of the last 11 games when playing as a home favorite.West Virginia has won 6 of the last 7 games coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers and they are averaging 38 points on offense in home games this season.


Play Duke -6 over North Carolina (NCAA)
7:30 PM EST

Duke has covered the spread in 13 of the last 16 games when playing as a favorite and they have covered the spread in 14 of the last 19 home games.Duke has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games after having won four or five of the last six games.


Play Arkansas State -6 over Texas State (NCAA)
9:30 PM EST

Arkansas State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of November and they have covered the spread in three consecutive games when playing on a Thursday.Arkansas State has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they are averaging 40 points on offense in their last three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

Play Miami +4 over Los Angeles Clippers (NBA TOP PLAY)

Miami has won 16 of the last 20 games vs. Pacific Division Opponents and they have won 27 of the last 37 games when playing in the month of November. Miami has won 90 of the last 112 home games and they have won 70 of the last 102 games after scoring 105 points or more in their last game.


Play Sacramento -1 over Chicago (NBA BONUS PLAY)



================================================== =====

NCAA BASKETBALL

Play SMU -1.5 over Indiana (NCAA TOP PLAY)

SMU has won 32 of the last 42 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 14 of the last 18 games when playing in the month of November.SMU has won 15 of the last 20 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 26 of the last 35 non-conference games.


Play California +5 over Syracuse (NCAA BONUS PLAY)
Play Iowa +5.5 over Texas (NCAA BONUS PLAY)

============================================


NHL HOCKEY

Play Washington +125 over Colorado (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play Detroit +105 over Winnipeg (NHL TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie


THURSDAY

10* Play Kansas City -7 over Oakland (Top NFL Play)

Oakland is 2-13 ATS coming off a win against the spread in their last game
Oakland is 12-25 ATS when playing in November home games


10* Play West Virginia -2 over Kansas State (Top NCAA Play)

West Virginia is 5-1 SU when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points
West Virginia is 6-1 SU coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers


10* Play Duke -6 over North Carolina (Top NCAA Play)

Duke is 13-3 ATS when playing as a favorite the last three seasons
Duke is 14-5 ATS in home games the last three seasons


10* Play Arkansas State -6 over Texas State (Top NCAA Play)

Arkansas State is 9-2 ATS when playing in the month of November
Arkansas State is 3-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL


10* Play Miami +4.5 over Los Angeles Clippers (TOP NBA PLAY)
10* Play Sacramento -1 over Chicago (TOP NBA PLAY)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAA BASKETBALL


10* Play Miami -10.5 over Drexel (TOP NCAA PLAY)
10* Play Charlotte +3.5 over Penn State (TOP NCAA PLAY)
10* Play South Florida +2.5 over UAB (TOP NCAA PLAY)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

NHL HOCKEY


10* Play Los Angeles -200 over Carolina (TOP NHL PLAY)
10* Play San Jose -190 over Florida (TOP NHL PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KEVIN PLAYS

Well there isn't much to say about last week. Nevada lost in OT and couldn't cover, and Mississippi State scored a last second touchdown to cover the spread against Alabama. It's been rough goings for me in College Football, but I continue to put in the work to try and finish strong. Two picks tonight.
2 UNIT = Kansas State @ West Virginia - [112] WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units)
2 UNIT = North Carolina @ Duke - [113] NORTH CAROLINA +6 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT "2-Team 6-Point Teaser" = RAIDERS +15.5 and REDSKINS +15.5 (-110)*
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
*This teaser is available at a couple of sportsbooks (5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/)) that have their lines shaded to prevent against people teasing the Chiefs down below 3. If you can't bet this teaser with Raiders at +14.5 or better I would recommend a 2 unit pick on the Raiders against the spread tonight.
2 UNIT = Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders - OVER 42.5 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks LA Clippers at Miami The Clippers travel to Miami tonight to face a Heat team that is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games versus Western Conference opponents. LA is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST


Game 701-702: LA Clippers at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.212; Miami 117.588
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-3 1/2); Over


Game 703-704: Chicago at Sacramento (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.918; Sacramento 123.303
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports CBB:

4-Unit Play. #711 Take SMU (-2.5) over Indiana (8 p.m., Thursday, November 20)
This is another early non-conference road game where we back the away squad. But it makes sense. SMU is in a much better position, not just their overall prospects for this season but also how capable they are early on in the schedule. The Mustangs have three returning starters from their 27-win team in 2013. Add to that two double-digit scorers as new pieces via transfer, one from Xavier and the other from Texas Tech. Indiana lost several of their best players from last season and Yogi Farrell isn't enough to best an SMU squad that is balanced and capable of getting production from so many players. This is a modest number, but it's low because this game is at Indiana. Nonetheless, the better team is favored and they come through with a quality true road victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph
Super Pick Kansas St + 2
Trophy Play CHIEFS -7 NFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BETTING PROF

CFB

116. Texas State +7* (Mostly +6.5s right now but the system recommends buying the half point up to 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE (CBB)

5-Unit play. Take Charlotte+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEHIND THE BETS

1* Boston College +5

2* Drexel +5 (1st Half)

2* SMU -2.5 (-112)

CFB: 4* West Virginia -2.5

NFL: 3* Oakland +7.5 and Under 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott spreitzer

3* cbb thursday night main event!

SMU -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

200% West Virginia

[golden contender]

Thursday card has the 23-0 College Football Game of the Week, an NFL Play with 5 different league wide system and an NCAAB Perfect angle play. Football combined is ranked #1 on several leader boards. Hump day card cashes big as NCAAB has cashed 7 of first 10 releases. Free NBA Total below.





The free NBA Totals play is on the under in the LA. at Miami game. Rotation numbers 701/7012 at 8:05 eastern. Miami has gone under the total in 7 of their last 8 games, and all 3 vs Non conference teams. This game fits a solid totals system that has played under in 80% of games since 1995. Play the under for home teams with rest like Miami if they covered by 14+ points as a road dog of 5 or more points and are playing an opponent like the Clippers that also covered by 14+ points on the road but did so as a favorite. Wade for Miami is still banged up and may not play. The Clippers played much better last night in a blowout win over Orlando and this one figures to be a lower scoring game. Take the under. On Thursday the NFL Power 5 play takes center stage and has 5 league wide long term power systems. In NCAAF Action we have the 23-0 College Football game of the week and an Undefeated NCAAB Power angle play. Football is ranked #1 on some of the higher end leader boards this season and NCAAB has ht on 7 of 10 to start after last night big winner. Jump on now and Cash out with cutting edge data that wont be seen anywhere else. For the Free Play take the Heat and Clippers to play under the total. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

50 Dimes - 2 Team 6 1/2 point teaser on the Kansas City Chiefs and the Kansas State Wildcats

Free play - OVER the posted total in the North Carolina/Duke game

Lang has now won 8 out of his last 10 paid plays, going up 574 dimes. So far in this years regular NFL season, Lang is up 601 dimes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (CBB)

1-Unit Play. Take #705 Detroit (+18.5) over Michigan (6 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #707 Florida Atlantic (+16.5) over Harvard (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #712 Indiana (+3) over SMU (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #730 Miami (-9.5) over Drexel (3 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

3-Unit Play. Take #731 Penn State (-3) over Charlotte (5:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take #734 South Carolina (-13) over Cornell (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

7-Unit Play. Take #735 **Texas (-4.5) over Iowa (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 149.0 – Texas vs. Iowa (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

4-Unit Play. Take #738 California (+5) over Syracuse (9:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 131.0 – Syracuse vs. California (9:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

2-Unit Play. Take #743 UC-Davis (+2.5) over Eastern Illinois (8 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

1-Unit Play. Take #742 Northern Illinois (-8) over Idaho (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #716 Alabama (-7) over Southern Miss (9 p.m.) AND Take #740 St. Peter’s (-8.5) over Niagara (7 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike O'Connor


Here is the analysis of the games I released earlier. I may have another round of plays tomorrow after getting a look at the injury report and a weather update so please check back then.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***OAKLAND (+7.5 -120) 22 Kansas City 20

Thu Nov-20-2014 at 05:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 110 Over/Under 42.5

This is a good spot for the Raiders as they get the visiting Chiefs on a short week in between high profile games. Kansas City was fortunate to come away with a close 24-20 win last week at home against the Seahawks in a hard fought game against the Super Bowl champs and have a showdown at the top of the division at home against the Broncos in primetime next Sunday night. This is a soft spot in their schedule and facing an 0-10 team, it’s going to be hard to get motivated on a short travel week. On the other side, the Raiders will be fired up to get the spotlight at home and should bring an inspired effort in a game that they could win. Kansas City has been an about average team from the line of scrimmage offensively, generating 329 total yards at 5.4 yppl against teams that allow 330 yards at 5.3 yppl but have converted third downs at a 48% rate (#3 ranking) and have been good in the red zone (69.7% for a #3 ranking). On the other side, the Raiders have a #30 ranking in offensive third down conversions. Some regression to the mean is possible in both of those stats and if that is the case in this game, the Raiders could surprise. Oakland is last in the league as well with a -12 turnover differential but have had negative fumble luck while the Chiefs have had slightly positive fumble luck. As a result, Oakland qualifies in a turnover based 498-409-15 situation. They also qualify in a 53-21-4 home dog situation as well as a 52-21 situation that plays on winless teams in the back half of the season. With a good spot and solid systems on their side, I’ll take the Raiders +7.5 -120 for 3-stars to +7 and for 2-stars at down to +6.
***Cleveland (+3.5 -125) 27 Atlanta 21

Sun Nov-23-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 46.5

The Browns didn’t play well last week in their 7-23 loss at home against the Texans but they were coming off of a big divisional statement win in Cincinnati against their in-state rivals and were flat as a result. The same thing happened earlier this season after they clobbered the Steelers in Week 6 (31-10) then lost as a favorite the following week to the previously winless Jaguars (6-24). Just as they bounced back the week after that game for a ten point win against the Raiders (24-14), I expect that they’ll bounce back in this spot as well. Cleveland is right in the thick of it in the AFC North with a 6-4 record and they know that they can’t afford to slip up here. They should be able to move the ball well against a Falcons defense that has not been good this season in allowing 404 total yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that average 343 yards at 5.5 yppl. Cleveland should get a boost from the return of WR Josh Gordon, who is coming off his ten game suspension to start the season. Last year, Gordon led the NFL with 1646 receiving yards on 87 receptions for an 18.9 yard average with nine touchdowns without a competent quarterback. His return, coupled with the return last week of 2014 Browns leading receiver Andrew Hawkins, should provide the Browns passing offense with a spark. They’ll face the NFL’s worst pass defense that has allowed 280 yards at 7.8 yps to teams that gain 239 yards at 6.3 yps on average and provide a great matchup for the Cleveland passing offense.

On the other side, the Browns defend the pass well (allowing 229 yards at 6.0 yps to teams that gain 243 yards at 6.5 yps) and should be able to minimize the Falcons strength, which is their passing offense. Atlanta is coming off of two divisional wins and find themselves in first place in the bad NFC South with a 4-6 record and any may not have their best in this non-conference game. The Browns benefit from a negative 53-113-3 statistical match-up situation that plays against Atlanta as well as a 103-53-4 situation that plays on dogs that lost big as a favorite last week. My model predicts a 2.0 point Browns victory in this one, so with what appears to be a good spot, with good situations and some line value, I’ll take the Browns +3.5 (-125) for 3-stars down to +3 -115 and for 2-stars at up to +3 -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. : Bob


Below is the analysis of the Best Bet on Toledo tonight and on Arkansas State tomorrow night. I added a Strong Opinion on the Toledo-Bowling Green Over (54).

The other Best Bets for Saturday are

(128) ***Tennessee (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -6
(148) **Purdue (+1 ½) 2-Stars at -1 or better
(152) **East Carolina (-17) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 1-Star up to -19.5
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**TOLEDO (-6) 38 Bowling Green 24

Wed Nov-19-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 54.0

I’ll assume that starting quarterback Logan Woodside will not play this week for Toledo and that may actually be a good thing. When I wrote up last week’s opinion on Toledo against Northern Illinois I mentioned that I wasn’t impressed with backup quarterback Michael Julian and that I wouldn’t be surprised if WR Dwight Macon came in at quarterback if Julian was ineffective. Julian was ineffective but Macon didn’t line up behind center until Julian suffered a concussion and after Woodside tried to play a series with his injured leg. Macon took over and completed 8 of 11 passes for 130 yards on 13 pass plays (including 2 sacks) and ran for 107 yards on 16 runs to nearly lead the Rockets to a comeback win before falling 3 points short. Macon’s good play wasn’t that surprising to me given he was recruited to play quarterback and was switched to wide receiver to get his talent on the field in an era when the Rockets had two very good starting quarterbacks in Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin. Macon was actually rated higher as a quarterback coming out of high school than any of the Toledo quarterbacks except Alabama transfer Phillip Ely, who suffered a season ending injury in week 2. It appears to me as if the line has been significantly adjusted for Toledo being down to their 4th string quarterback but I actually think the position has been upgraded with Macon, who actually knows the offense better than any of the quarterbacks, having been in the system longer than anyone on the team, and adds a running element that the other quarterbacks didn’t show. I’m not going to adjust Toledo’s offensive rating components upward, even though I feel it’s warranted based on Macon’s talent and what he showed last week, but I’m certainly not going to lower the Rockets’ offensive ratings. The overall offensive projection does end up being lower because Toledo will run the ball more with Macon at quarterback, which plays into the strength of a Bowling Green defense that is horrible defending the pass (6.7 yards per pass play allowed despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defense) but the math still projects Toledo to gain 531 yards at 6.6 yards per play in this game which is more than reasonable given that Toledo has averaged 500 total yards at 6.3 yppl this season (against teams that are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively) and the Bowling Green’s defense is allowing 508 yards per game and are rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average even after dampening the affect of the 648 rushing yards at 11.5 yprp that they allowed to Wisconsin. I did take into account that Toledo would run the ball a lot more than normal, which would lower the total number of plays in this game, but Bowling Green runs their offense at a very fast pace and Toledo is still projected to run 80 plays because they’ll have more possessions to work with.

Bowling Green’s offense looks pretty good when you look at total yards (457) and points (32.6 per game) but the Falcons run a lot of plays with their no huddle offense, which disguises the fact that they are actually not good offensively. The Falcons have averaged 5.7 yards per play despite facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack and my model projects 407 yards at 5.4 yppl on the road against a Toledo defense that is just as bad (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense).

Toledo is projected to outgain Bowling Green by 124 total yards and predicts a 15 point win by the Rockets (with 64 ½ total points). The projection also is based on normal weather and the weather for this game is expected to be cold and windy with some snow, which actually could help Toledo if it gets really windy (since Bowling Green is more of a passing team that would be negative affected by the wind). Regardless of which side the weather may favor (maybe neither) it is likely to result in fewer points than my model predicts, but I still think the total has been adjusted too much for the weather and for Toledo having a 4th string quarterback (who I think is at least as good as the other Rockets’ quarterbacks). The math model gives Toledo a 56.2% chance to cover based on the historical performance of the model and I’ll take Toledo in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less. I will also consider the Over (54) a Strong Opinion at 55 points or less.
**Arkansas State (-5) 35 TEXAS STATE 22

Thu Nov-20-2014 at 06:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 115 Over/Under 58.5

Arkansas State played their worst game of the season last week in a 32-37 upset loss to Appalachian State but the Red Wolves haven’t lost consecutive games to the spread since last October and last week’s result has supplied us with added line value tonight. Texas State has played relatively well lately but the Bobcats haven’t proven good enough to beat a team like Arkansas State. In fact, all 5 of Texas State’s victories this season have been against teams that are at least 12 points worse than an average FBS team (Ark Pine Bluff, Tulsa, Idaho, UL Monroe and New Mexico State) and the Bobcats are equally bad on both sides of the football – rating at 0.8 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Arkansas State has been 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively for the season but they played two games without star RB Michael Gordon (844 yards at 7.3 ypr) and top WR J.D. McKissic missed nearly all of the last 3 games, which hurt the pass attack. Quarterback Fredi Knighten averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play the last two games without his security blanket (he’s completed 83% of his passes intended for McKissic this season) after averaging 7.0 yppp in the previous 6 games this season against worse than average pass defenses with McKissic playing. McKissic is back this week, which should help the pass attack and get the 3rd down conversion rate back up and Gordon should post big rushing numbers against a Texas State defense that has allowed an average of 239 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play in 9 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average just 4.8 yprp against an average team. The Bobcats are also poor defending the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.5 yppp against an average team), so Knighten could go back to his 7.0-plus yppp level with McKissic back. My math model projects 521 yards at 6.3 yppp for Arkansas State in this game, which should get them over their average of 33.8 points (on 449 average total yards).

Texas State’s sub-par offense is projected to tally just 379 total yards at 5.0 yppl against a solid Arkansas State defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yards per play this season to a collection of opponents that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. The Red Wolves have a good chance to win by 7 points or more with a projected 142 yards advantage and a slight edge in projected turnovers (Knighten has thrown just 4 interceptions all season). My math model calls for a play on the Red Wolves and I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3* Kansas City -7 Oakland 8:25 pm NFL
FRIDAY College Total Late Phones:
3* UNDER 46 San Jose St/ Utah St 9:30 pm Espn2
Thursday College Marquee -
North Carolina +6 Duke 7:30 pm Espn
Thursday NFL Marquee -
UNDER 42.5 KC/Oakland NFL 8:25 pm NFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Lock Club

3* North Carolina+6 over Duke

[Can'tPickAWinner]

jason sharpe

nba

7-unit kings-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ras

usc -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST SPORTS

3* Kansas City -7 Oakland 8:25 pm NFL

FRIDAY College Total Late Phones:
3* UNDER 46 San Jose St/ Utah St 9:30 pm Espn2

Thursday College Marquee -
North Carolina +6 Duke 7:30 pm Espn

Thursday NFL Marquee -
UNDER 42.5 KC/Oakland NFL 8:25 pm NFL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (CBB)

4-Unit Play. Take #737 Syracuse (-4.5) over California (9 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 20)

I love the Orange tonight. They are playing in New York City and they always have a huge advantage there. The Orange get great crowd support and they will be excited to play this game in this tournament. The Orange played Cal in Maui last November. They won that game easily, 92-81, and I think they will do the same thing tonight. The Orange also beat Cal in the NCAA Tournament in March of 2013 so they have beaten Cal twice in the last 20 months. Tonight they go for the sweep!Syracuse has one of the strongest frontcourts in the country and they have their patented 2-3 zone. They are a Top 10 scoring defense through two games and they were more impressive in the lead-up to this game. Syracuse will be too much for the Bears tonight and they will take advantage of their crowd advantage and travel edge.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

CFB:
(114) Duke -5.5 over North Carolina

NFL:
(110) Oakland +7 over Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert ferringo nhl
7-unit-nashville-115 and 2-unit-arizona+140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Pick Predictions

Oakland Raiders

Miami Heat

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

Added Plays for Thursday

NCAAB

2* (735) Texas -$204
(6pm Central Time)

1* (738) California +5
(8:30pm Central Time)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BigBetTiger (CBB)

Drexel +10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

NBA
Passing

NCAAB
#748: St. Mary’s: -10.0 (-110) (2*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JAMES JONES

NCAAB-Connecticut University(-12)-106…(2*)

NCAAB-Boston College(+5.5)-116…(2*)

NCAAB-Drexel University(+10.5)-109…(1*)

NFL-Oakland Raiders(+7.5)-117…(2*)

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Charlies sports

Oakland Raiders +7.5

NCAAF
500* - Kent State +7.5
500 * -Duke @ North Carolina over 65
500* - Texas State +6.5

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Vegaslinereader

big play: New mexico/boston college under 132.5!!

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MIKE DAVIS (CBB)
5-Unit Play. Take #730 Miami -9.5 over Drexel (Thursday, November 20th at 3:00 p.m.)
Many will consider this a let down spot for the Hurricanes but I’m not buying it. This Hurricanes team is led by two guards that transfered in from other schools and they have something to prove. Former Kansas State guard, Angel Rodriguez, certainly proved his value in the big upset win over Florida. Former Texas guard, Sheldon McClellan, didn’t have as big of an impact but he did play the most minutes (39) of anyone on the team. Today, the Hurricanes face an inferior opponent, Drexel, in the opening game of the Gilden Charleston Classic. Drexel has stumbled out of the gate with two losses at Colorado and vs St. Joe’s. The Dragons have had some bad luck with injuries the past few seasons but this year they simply don’t have the overall talent to be a contender. They would have to play a near perfect game to stay within the number in this ballgame. St. Joe’s beat them on their home court and St. Joe’s lost by 52 points last night at Gonzaga. I know the Zags are good but 52 points. Fifty-Two points. Miami will roll today and move on in the winner’s bracket of the tournament.
Take Miami.
4-Unit Play. Take #731 Penn State -3 over Charlotte (Thursday, November 20th at 5:30 p.m.)
Penn State has a roster that is starting to resemble a solid Big Ten roster. They have a potential Big Ten player of the year candidate in guard D.J. Newbill. He finished second in the league in scoring last season and the senior can play the point or the two guard position. The Nittany Lions also return three other starters and they will get a big contribution from Pitt transfer, John Johnson, all season long. Shep Garner is a highly touted freshmen guard and he has played well in the early season. Charlotte is a solid but not great team. They should have a better year this year than last year but they will certainly miss Shawn Lester who opted to turn pro and play overseas. This game will come down to guard play and Penn State’s rotation of guards is better and deeper than Charlotte’s. Newbill will have a big game on the national stage today. I look for Charlotte to keep it close and perhaps have a lead at halftime. However, the Nittany Lions will pull away to an 8 or 9 point victory in the second half.
Take Penn State.
4-Unit Play. Take #712 Indiana +3 over SMU (Thursday, November 20th at 8:00 p.m.)
Indiana is a guard laden team and Crean has started four guards in each of their two games this season. That’s a perfect matchup for the Hoosiers vs SMU. Neither team will have a dominant big man in this game and like the Penn State/Charlotte game, this game will come down to guard play. Indiana certainly isn’t a legit contender for a Big Ten title but they do have some legitimate guards that can play. Yogi Ferrell is the most talented guard on the team and he will be looked upon to provide scoring and leadership. James Blackmon and Robert Johnson are two very good freshmen guards and it will be fun to watch how they play vs a solid SMU backcourt. SMU has some very good players but the loss of Markus Kennedy (eligibility) and the decision of Emmanuel Mudiay to play pro ball instead of attend SMU has put a huge damper on their season. Indiana is a tough place to play and SMU has already failed one road test this season when Gonzaga picked them apart in a 16-point defeat. Indiana is certainly not Gonzaga but they are at home and the strength of their team matches up well with the strength of the Mustangs. This will be a fun game to watch on many different levels and the Hoosiers will pull off the home win by 5-8 points.
Take Indiana.

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Derek Hayes

CFB

1* West Virginia

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Fezzik

3* NFL Total of the Year
Denver/Miami UNDER 49

2* Sea/Ari UNDER 42

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Teddy Covers

10* Indiana +3

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Greg Shaker

2* BC Under 133

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Kyle hunter cbb pod - Harvard

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Rockdeman Sports

CBB

Southern Mississippi +12.5

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Gabriel DuPont

CBB

20 Dimes - South Florida +2

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Scott Delaney

NCAAF


80 Dimes - West Virginia -2.5

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Lonnie Nelson (Betting Connection)

NCAAF
Kansas St / WVU over 58

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Worlds Worse Picker

Clippers
Kings

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Mike Jacob

10K - Oakland Raiders +8

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Burns
NHL Personal Favorite..... 9* Dallas Stars

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leiner card

2000*
ova 58 wv/kstate

500*
usc cbb -1.5 (Loss ) crushed today

100*
raiders + 7.5

50*
Dayton +2 cbb (win)

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

NFL
#110: Raiders: +7.5 (-105) (1*)

NCAA FB
#113: UNC: +6.0 (-110) (0.5*)

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NY Sports Genius

5 units

(NBA) Clippers/Heat under 197.5 (-110)

(NFL) Raiders +7.5 (-120)


4 units

(NBA) Bulls +2.5 (-110)

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JI Select Sports


Charleston @ UCONN


Early afternoon game in San Juan features the defending champs against a rebuilt Charleston squad. The huskies came out of the gates slow and grinded out a W in the end against a weak Bryant team. That game was almost a full week ago and I cant imagine that it has been a fun week at practice with Coach Ollie. I expect a highly motivated team to show up on this occasion.


My take is Charleston is that this team is filled with what I call "hoisters". Guys that are not afraid to chuck up 3's. If the long balls drop, they have a chance of hanging within the number. If they miss, the long rebounds will lead to easy UCONN breaks where Boatwright is fantastic at finding teammates in transition.


The total number has dropped to 127.5(5dimes) which doesnt scare me away...just means its time to FIRE.


OVER 127.5




George Mason vs. WVU




The Mountaineers are another team who came out of the gates slow after high offseason expectations. Potential Big 12 POY Juwan Staten may be the best PG in the nation. I see a lot of Shabazz Napier in his game, the ability to make shots combined with veteran leadership will be key to this teams success. WVU also has a couple big boys down low, particular Williams aka rec specs, who hound the glass the way Huggins teaches it.


Mason played in a couple close teams and actually came away with a solid win over Princeton. The were able to use their size and athleticism to wear down a couple Ivy League teams. I don't see them being the more physical team in this matchup, and their lack of ability to make jump shots will prove problematic.


WVU -9 is the pick

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

adds

NHL:
(52) Philadelphia +125 over Minnesota
(51/52) Philadelphia/Minnesota OV 5' +110
(53/54) Tampa Bay/Toronto OV 6 -115
(57) Nashville -110 over Ottawa


CBB:
(708) Harvard -16 over Florida Atlantic
(733) Cornell +13' over South Carolina
(736) Iowa +4' over Texas

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Gold Sports Investing

CBB
TEXAS A&M
AKRON
MIAMI FLORIDA

NCAAF
K-STATE/WVU – UNDER
DUKE

NBA
MIAMI
MIAMI UNDER
SACRAMENTO
SACRAMENTO – OVER

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BEHIND THE BETS

added

2* Cal +5.5

2* Fla Atl +16.5

2* Penn St/Texas ML parlay and Niagara +9

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Johnny Wynn

New Mexico -5
Iowa +4.5

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Kyle Hunter

added

Nicholls St/ UCLA OVER 151
Loyola Marymount/ Arizona State UNDER 131

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Joe D

Iowa +6
California +5

[kar261]

Matt Rivers on Villanova -20

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chris james.
ucla ncaabb
under kc/Oakland
west virginia

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just cover baby.
KC
Kansas st
duke

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THE PREZ (NHL)

Philadelphia Flyers ML+120

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LineCatchers

CFB

2* Thursday Night Blow-Out Play / Kansas State + 2.5

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VegasButcher - NBA 33-21

Miami Heat +4

LA is on a b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after traveling all of the way across-country for yesterday’s game. They’ll take on a well rested Miami team that had 2-days off prior to tonight. Yesterday the Clips were -5 @ ORL, and now a day after and in a more challenging physical spot, they’re -4 at Miami? Are the Heat on the same level as Orlando? Of course not, but Miami is dealing with some injury issues. Wade is out. Deng was listed as doubtful but did go through the shoot-around. Neither Deng nor McRoberts (nor Wade) played on Monday yet Miami still won @ BKN. McRoberts is expected back, and from what I know of Deng from his days with Chicago, if he’s able to get through a shoot-around, he should be able to play as well. Clippers have beaten OKC, LAL, UTA, POR, PHX, and ORL this seasion, as only POR is a ‘playoff team’ (OKC will be also when KD and RW return). Clippers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against true ‘playoff’ contenders, and now will play against another one on the road in a challenging spot. I believe they’re overvalued, especially if Deng suits up tonight.

Sacramento Kings -3

Bulls are 6-0 SU on the road so easy pick on them tonight to continue their winning ways right? Well, no team can go 41-0 on the road in the NBA, so eventually everyone losses. So could today be the day when Chicago gets its first road loss? Quiet possibly. First, they will once again be without Pau Gasol and Rose. Rose is not a surprise and Chicago is pretty used to playing without him - they have been for over the last 2+ years. Gasol though is a bigger loss. He’s 2nd on a team with a 21.5 PER (behind Butler’s 22.6), he is the guy that enables Chicago to have such great ‘big man’ depth (Noah, Gasol, and Taj), and he’s also excellent at spacing the floor as he has a deadly mid-range jump shot, something that Noah does not. Gibson has a good jump-shot, but it’s not nearly as polished as Gasol. Bulls played well without Gasol @ LAC, but today could be a lot tougher. Second key factor is a huge rebounding differential between these two teams. Bulls rank 29th in DRB-rate while Kings are 1st on the offensive boards. In addition Kings are 2nd in DRB% while Bulls are 18th on the offensive boards. You don’t normally associate Chicago with ‘poor rebounding’ but that has been the case this year. A lot of that has to do with Noah not being 100% fit after his off-season knee surgery. He just doesn’t have the same lift right now, which could be a major issue against Cousins, one of the most dominant forces in the game today. Finally, maybe the reason that the Kings could win today’s game is that they’re a better team. Yes, Chicago has a +5.4 differential to Sacramento’s +0.5, but are the Bulls really 5-points better? Kings are 6-5 this year but only have one bad loss, @ OKC on the road. They have played GSW, POR, LAC, PHX, DAL, MEM, SAS, and NOP. That’s a lot of quality teams. Chicago has faced CLE (first game of the season for the Cavs who are still learning to play with one another), TOR, and LAC (who aren’t at the same level as last year). Besides these 3 teams, they’ve been playing squads like NYK, MIN, ORL, MIL, PHI, BOS, DET, and IND. The difference in strength of schedules are very drastic, so Kings’ +0.5 MOV is just as impressive, if not more so, than Chicago’s +5.4. Besides, Bulls lost to IND and BOS at home this year, so this team is capable of a let-down game at any moment. They’re coming off a big win @ LAC and will face a very strong POR team on the road tomorrow. Kings are off a bad home loss to the Pellies, so I’d expect a bounce-back here. I think this is a great spot for the home team and a prime spot for Bulls to get their first loss of the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Denver Money

NHL

2* Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers under 5.5

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DOC NBA:




3-Unit Play #701 Take LA Clippers/Miami UNDER 197.5 (8 p.m. EST, Thursday)

Even though the Clippers thumped the Magic last night, we are still not convinced that this team is right offensively yet, and we are even more skeptical that they can do it twice in two nights on the road. Not to mention they are facing a pretty good defensive team in the Heat. Miami is No. 6 for points allowed this season. They also really like to slow down the game and among the bottom 4 teams in the league in pace. There is a good reason the under is 7-4 in their 11 games played so far. They will also be without Dwyane Wade, who has been ruled out this game, so that will hurt their offense. The Clippers offense is in the middle of the pack so far this season, and they should be much better than this, and the team belongs in the Top 3. They will probably get better as the season progresses, but right now they are not consistent, and we don't expect them to have a good night against this D on a back-to-back. And Miami has been mostly stronger on defense than offense, and we don't see them breaking out for a huge point total, either.

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Jason Sharpe NBA:

13-6
+21.1u
+640 flat betting



7 Unit Play Take #704 Sacaramento -1.5 over Chicago (10:35pm est):

The Chicago Bulls could be without two of their top guys here in this one due to injuries. The Bulls overcame those absences in their last game winning 105-89 against the LA Clippers. That was the opening game of a big seven game road trip for Chicago. The 1st game of a long road trip is usually the one game where you see teams bring their best effort as their excited and focused on getting things started off on the right foot. It's after that 1st road game where teams start to feel the grind from being away from home, especially for team like Chicago playing out west like they are here in this one.

The Sacramento Kings started out the season red hot going 5-0 overall but things have went south since then as they have dropped 4 of their last 5 games overall. Many of the Kings players aren't happy about their recent play inlcuding Darren Collison who said he felt the Kings should have won their last game, a 106-100 loss to New Orleans. Collison even went as far as to say he felt the Kings lacked the effort needed to win after blowing a halftime lead in the game. Players don't usually like to call out their teammates for effort but be assured when they do it's heard by all. Now add that in with the fact this is a big TNT nationally televised game also tonight. Most home teams get up for this game as they know that their usually the only NBA game that's being played at that time and so the rest of the league will be watching.

The Kings have faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the NBA coming into this contest as four of their five losses were against teams with a combined 33-11 record thus far. The other defeat was against a desperate Oklahoma City team who was 1-5 at the time and at home in what felt like was a must win situation. The Bulls on the other hand have benefitted greatly playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference and have played the easiest schedule in the league to start the year.

Take Sacramento here.

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bones best bet (cbb)

texas state +7 -115 *2*

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MADDUX SPORTS

NFL

10* Oakland Raiders +7.5

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DOC SPORTS (CBB)

4 Unit Play. #706 Take Michigan -18 over Detroit (6 pm BTN) Detroit is coming back from a west coast trip to Oregon late Monday night and I do not expect them to have their legs for this game. They fell apart in the second half and expect Michigan to dominate this game for 40 minutes.

4 Unit Play. #710 Take Maryland -17 over Fordham (7:30 pm BTN+) Fordham is always a bottom feeder team in the ACC and today will be no different. Maryland returns a good nucleus and they are always a tough team to beat in College Park. Maryland has won 7 of the 8 meetings with Fordham and I expect this to be a 20-point victory for the home team.

4 Unit Play. #737 Take Syracuse -5 over California (9:30 pm ESPN 2) The Orange are happy to head south via a bus ride to their home away from home. MSG has been a favorite of Coach Boeheim and we will side with them tonight with this short number against Cal. The Golden Bears were just a middle of the pack team last year in the PAC-12 and I do not see them being much better this season. The Orange are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. Cal is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the ACC. Syracuse always has a winning streak to start the season and tonight will be no different.

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J.R.Stevens/SMOOTH44

CBB: Fordham +18

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CHRIS PALMA (CBB)

Detroit +18

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Pete Kidd (NBA 29-34)

Heat/Clippers Over 198.5 Total
Kings/Bulls Under 194 Total

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GoodFella

CFB - 1st Half Play - West Virginia -125 (ML)

NBA Info

Thibs says Rose and Gasol are both out tonight.

Both Luol Deng (wrist) and Josh McRoberts (foot) went through this morning’s team shootaround.

FWIW - Deng has been 'upgraded' to probable.......D_Wade still a question mark and I doubt he plays..

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Gold Sports Investing

Full Card

Nfl
oakland
oaklannd under


nhl
nashville
minnesota
washington
detroit
detroit under
tampa bay
st louis
florida/san jose under


ncaaf
duke
west virginia under


ncaabb
711 smu
714 uab
715 southern miss
718 arizona st
726 west virginia
734 south carolina
736 texas
737 syracuse
740 st peters
742 northern illinois
743 uc davis
746 northern arizona


nba
sacramento
sacramento over
miami
miami under

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Gd ny

1 - wvu

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BIGFELLA
Spittin-Winners

**C.R.E.A.M.**
$10 KANSAS ST +115 ML $1000/$1150

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Budin

Raiders +7.5

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Millionaires club
strong
west virginia

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Sports bank
400 north carolina

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Sports authority
arkansas state