12-27-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges

Dec. 27: Duke +7 1/2 Arizona State------------------Sun Bowl
Penn State +2 1/2 Boston College--------Pinstripe Bowl
Penn State--Boston College UNDER 40
So. Carolina +3 1/2 Miami, Fla.------------Independence Bowl
Virginia Tech +2 1/2 Cincinnati------------Military Bowl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob


Miami-Florida (-1.5) 3-Stars at -2.5 or less, 2-Stars at -3.


As most of you know I’ve been anti-South Carolina since before the season started (I had 2-Stars on Under 9.5 wins) and I started playing on Miami in week 7 and went 3-1 on my Best Bets on the Hurricanes, with the only loss being a bit unlucky (a 4 point loss as a 3 point dog to Florida State). What prompted those mid-season Best Bets (easy wins against Cincy, Virginia Tech and North Carolina prior to the tough loss to FSU) was extremely negative variance in 3rd down efficiency that kept the Hurricanes from looking as good as they actually were those first 6 games. Through week 6 Miami was averaging 6.6 yards per play and allowing just 4.9 yppl against a good schedule of FBS opponents (Louisville, Arkansas State, Nebraska, Duke, and Georgia Tech) that would combine to outgain an average FBS team by 0.5 yppl. However, Miami won only 2 of those 5 games against FBS opponents while being outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points, which made the Hurricanes appear to be a pretty mediocre team. I knew that was far from the truth, as they had actually been 11.6 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage. The discrepancy between how good Miami actually was and how they appeared to be based on scoring margin was partially due to a -3 in turnovers but was mostly due to extremely negative 3rd down variance. Miami, despite being a very good offensive team overall, had converted on just 15 of 63 (24%) 3rd downs through the first 6 weeks of the season, which would be low even for the worst offensive teams in the nation, and was extremely low for an offense that was as good as Miami’s offense. That negative variance in 3rd down conversions through 6 games supplied us with the line value to tab Miami for Best Bets in their next 4 games. The Hurricanes beat Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina by an average of 24 points before blowing their 23-7 lead against Florida State by playing the second half not to lose rather than being aggressive and confident like they were in the early stages of that game. As you know, Miami lost a heartbreaker 26-30 despite outgaining the Seminoles by 73 yards and that defeat crushed the Hurricanes’ growing spirit. I passed on making Miami a Best Bet the next week against Virginia, as it was a huge letdown coming off the disappointing loss to the Seminoles, and Canes lost that game to the Cavs by 17 points and then lost by 12 points to Pitt in their finale. Perhaps Miami lost some of their enthusiasm after the deflating loss to FSU but those two seemingly bad losses weren’t actually that bad given that Miami outgained Virginia and Pitt by an average of 380 yard at 6.0 yppl to 354 yards at 5.8 yppl. What those losses did do was provide us with the line value on Miami for this game that was starting to fade after their mid-season surge.

Miami may appear to be an inconsistent team but the Hurricanes’ line of scrimmage rating, which is a rating based on a combination of total yards and yards per play for and against and adjusted for site and quality of opponent, was very consistent. Miami’s worst line of scrimmage (LOS) rating this season was +7.6 points in their opener against Louisville and their average LOS rating is +14.7 points while their variance in LOS ratings is among the lowest in the nation. Where Miami is inconsistent is turning their yardage advantage into a points advantage. Early in the season the problem was due to 3rd down conversions (24% through 6 games) but the Hurricanes have converted on 45% of their 3rd downs in their last 6 games, which is more in line with what would be expected from an offense as good as their offense is. The problem in their final two games was negative red zone variance, as Miami averaged just 2.0 points per red zone opportunity and allowed 5.8 points per red zone opportunity in their losses to Virginia and Pitt, which explains how the Canes could lose by an average of 14.5 points in those two games despite outplaying those teams from the line of scrimmage. Miami’s red zone efficiency prior to their last 2 games was 4.7 points per RZ on offense and 4.8 points per RZ allowed on defense, so the extreme red zone variance was just a two week thing that made Miami once again look much worse than they actually are (the last two games put Miami’s season red zone scoring to just 4.4 points per RZ on offense and 5.0 points per RZ on defense). I see no reason why Miami would have trouble on 3rd downs or with red zone offense or defense in this game given how good they are overall from the line of scrimmage.

How good is Miami from the line of scrimmage? Miami has averaged 436 yards and 6.9 yards per play on offense while facing a schedule of FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Miami’s defense has yielded just 358 yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average FBS defense. That’s an overall compensated yards per play differential of +2.2 yppl, which ranks 9th in the nation. South Carolina, meanwhile, has a compensated yards per play differential of just +0.4 yppl as the offensively strong Gamecocks (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack) have struggled this season due to a horrible defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). South Carolina has run more offensive plays than their opponents because they tend to give up big plays (and thus fewer long drives) and overall the Gamecocks’ line of scrimmage rating is +6.8 points. South Carolina is expected to run 9 more plays than Miami in this game, as the Hurricanes should hit on a few big plays against a defense that tends to give them up, but overall the Hurricanes have been 8 points better from the line of scrimmage, 0.6 points better in special teams and 0.9 points better in projected turnovers. Add it all up and Miami would be favored to win this game by 9 ½ points with neutral variance. Of course, there is a reasonable chance that Miami’s negative differential in 3rd down conversions and red zone scoring averages is not due to variance. However, that chance is factored into my model’s projection of Miami having a 57.5% chance of covering based solely on the math model. That percentage is based on the historical performance of my model and the math model plays (games with a significant difference from the line) have been particularly good in bowl games when choosing a team that is favored by 4 or less or getting points (those are 35-18 ATS since 2004, the first year of my current math model). In addition to the math, the Hurricanes also apply to a 73-29-3 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams to rebound from an upset loss in their regular season finale and teams in that situation that have lost 3 or more games in a row are 9-1 ATS with the only spread loss by just ½ a point. In general, teams that lost their final 3 regular season games are 60% ATS in bowl games, including 21-8 ATS when not favored by 7 points or more and facing a team that has 3 or more losses on the season. Miami has had time to refocus themselves after their disappointing end to the season and the Hurricanes are a much better team than South Carolina, who they are likely to beat even if the Gamecocks also have a renewed enthusiasm for this game. There is another situation that plays on good defensive teams in bowls when facing a bad defensive team and that angle is 64-32-1 ATS, which also applies to Miami. I’ll take Miami in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less, for 2-Stars at -3 and for 1-Star up to -4 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob


I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total



Virginia Tech is no longer a national power but the Hokies still play great defense and taking the defensively superior underdog in bowl games is a good recipe for success. That’s especially the case if the good defensive team is otherwise mediocre, as is certainly the case with Virginia Tech. Bowl underdogs that have allowed less than 26.0 points per game are 40-21 ATS against a favorite that has allowed more than 26.0 points per game. You don’t get as much value with those teams if they have a really good record (just 5-6 with teams that lost 2 or fewer regular season games) and teams that are better than average offensively tend to get some respect from the odds makers and the public too. What you really want is a defensively superior underdog that is worse than average offensively, as that 40-21 ATS record is 16-4 ATS if the dog has lost 3 or more regular season games and averages 26 points or less per game. That’s Virginia Tech and Central Michigan this season and my math model likes both of those teams.

Virginia Tech’s shining moment this season was their 35-21 win at Ohio State in which they held the explosive Buckeyes’ attack to just 342 yards at 5.0 yards per play. I’ve heard plenty of so called experts dismiss that win with the explanation that Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett hadn’t yet gotten comfortable in the offense, which is why he had a bad game against the Hokies. I don’t see that being the case at all given that Barrett averaged 13.6 yards per pass play the week before playing Virginia Tech and he averaged 10.1 yppp the week after playing the Hokies - and then averaged 8.4 yppp or more in the 3 games after that. Virginia Tech’s good defensive effort against Ohio State was about Virginia Tech not about Ohio State’s quarterback not being in good form. The Hokies’ defense can make a lot of quarterbacks look like they’re in bad form, as that unit allowed just 4.8 yards per pass play for the season while facing a lot of good quarterbacks (the quarterbacks they faced would average 6.6 yppp against an average defensive team). The Hokies will face another good quarterback in this game, as Cincinnati Gunner Kiel averaged 7.9 yppp this season while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Kiel had mixed results against better than average defensive teams, as he had a great game against Ohio State but played poorly against Miami (until late in the game when the Canes had a big lead) and against Temple while having a decent game against Memphis. Overall, Kiel’s compensated numbers against good defenses were about the same as his overall rating and my math model projects 5.8 yards per pass play for Kiel in this game. That projection could even be a bit high given that the Hokies allowed 5.8 yppp or more just twice all season (to ECU and the option attack of Geogia Tech). Cincinnati should have decent success running the ball (the math projects 5.4 yards per rushing play for the Bearcats), as Cincy’s rushing attack went from bad to better than average once freshman Mike Boone started getting the bulk of the carries in week 9. Virginia Tech’s run defense was a bit worse than average for the season (5.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp) but that’s only because they couldn’t stop either Miami or Boston College when leading tackler LB Chase Williams was injured. The Hokies were 0.5 yprp worse than average in the 4 games that Williams missed but he returned in the finale against Virginia and registered 12 tackles in helping limit the Cavaliers to just 76 yards at 2.5 yprp. Virginia Tech is 0.3 yprp better than average with Williams but Cincinnati has a bit of an advantage running against that defense with Boone as the featured back. Overall, Cincinnati is projected to gain 373 yards at 5.6 yppl in this game.

Virginia Tech’s problem in recent years has been a stagnant offense and this year’s edition managed just 5.0 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. That attack is a bit better with RB Marshawn Williams out for the season. Williams was horrible, averaging just 3.8 ypr, and J.C. Coleman has done a good job since taking over the position, as he averaged 104 yards at 5.6 ypr over the final 3 games. The rushing attack should work well against a sub-par Cincy defense that allowed 6.0 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense). That number was skewed by the 363 yards at 11.7 yprp that the Bearcats allowed to Miami but the math model projects a solid 5.2 yprp for the Hokies in this game even after adjusting for that outlier. Cincy is also worse than average defending the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.8 yppp) but Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Brewer is 1.1 yppp worse than average and is expected to average just 5.6 yppp in this game. Overall the Hokies are projected to gain 423 yards at 5.4 yppl against Cincinnati’s leaky defense that allowed 6.2 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit).

While Cincinnati is expected to average slightly more yards per play (5.6 yppl to 5.4 yppl) the Hokies should run more plays, as their defense doesn’t allow many long drives. In fact, Virginia Tech’s defense allowed just 4.6 plays per drive, which is the lowest in the nation and the reason the Hokies were +8.3 in play differential. The extra plays that Virginia Tech is expected to have more than makes up for the difference in projected yards per play and my math model favors Virginia Tech by 3 points in this game (with a total of 53 ½ points). In addition to the line and the 16-4 ATS defensive dog angle the Bearcats apply to a negative 5-32 ATS bowl situation that is based on their 7 game win streak. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I have no opinion on the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob


Strong Opinion – Duke (+7 ½) 29 Arizona State 31



I can’t imagine Arizona State being too excited about a minor bowl game when they were at one point ranked 7th in the college football playoff rankings before losing to Oregon State in week 12 and then blew their chance for the Pac-12 Championship game and a major bowl game by losing to rival Arizona in their final regular season game. I actually have some evidence that Arizona State may not be 100% invested in preparing for this game, as team’s from the power 5 conferences (plus Notre Dame and including the old Big 8) are just 9-34-3 ATS as favorites of more than 7 points in pre-New Year’s bowl games after losing their final regular season game (or conference championship game). These are generally teams that had higher goals than to be playing a much weaker team in a bowl such as the Sun Bowl. Arizona State was in the exact same situation last year and lost 23-37 as a 14 ½ point favorite against Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Duke also benefited from this situation last year when they nearly upset Texas A&M as a double-digit dog before losing 48-52 to Johnny Manziel and the Aggies on New Year’s Eve.


There is also some line value in favor of Duke in this game, as the Sun Devils aren’t as good with Taylor Kelly at quarterback. Kelly had some good numbers early in the season against 3 horrible defensive teams and the Sun Devils’ attack got much better when Kelly injured his foot and Mike Bercovici took over the starting role for 3 games. Bercovici was great in those 3 starts, averaging 7.7 yards per pass play against 3 good defensive teams (UCLA, USC and Stanford) that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall Bercovici was 1.3 yppp better than average on his 194 pass plays this season, averaging 6.6 yppp (excluding the 46 yard Hail Mary pass against USC) against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Kelly, meanwhile, has averaged just 6.7 yppp while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback and he was 0.4 yppp worse than average in 6 games against Pac 12 competition after returning from his injury. The rushing attack also struggled in those games, as teams realized that Kelly wasn’t much of a threat through the air and could focus more on defending the run. Arizona’s offense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average over those last 6 games with Kelly back as the starting quarterback (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and I rate the Sun Devils’ attack at just 0.1 yppl better than average using Kelly’s numbers for the entire season. Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Arizona State doesn’t have much of an edge with their offense and the Sun Devils are projected to gain 462 yards at 5.9 yards per play in this game.

Arizona State isn’t good defensively either, as the Sun Devils allowed 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. Duke is a sub-par offensive team this season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) but their disadvantage is not that significant and the Blue Devils are projected to gain 396 yards at 5.3 yppl. Overall, Arizona State has a 0.6 yppl advantage but the Blue Devils have excellent special teams and turnovers are projected pretty evenly. The math model favors Arizona State by just 3 ½ points (and 60 total points) and the Sun Devils have been overrated ever since Kelly returned to the lineup. Kelly has started 9 games this season and the 4 games in which the Sun Devils covered with Kelly at quarterback were all games in which they were +2 or more in turnover margin. In other words, Arizona has needed some good fortune to cover the spread with Kelly at quarterback and they’ll probably need some turnover luck to win by more than 7 points in this game too. I’ll consider Duke a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 65 points or higher (a lean under at less than 65), as the combination of ASU’s offense being worse with Kelly at quarterback and the 11 non-offensive touchdowns in Arizona State games (which is very high) has the total higher than it should be.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter (NCAA Football)

#227 Virginia Tech +3 vs #228 (2*)

#230 Arizona -7 vs Duke (3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the pressbox / phil steele

ncaaf best bets

arizona st.

Penn st.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MADDUX SPORTS (Bowl Games)

Duke +7.5
Virginia Tech +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS FOOTBALL

BLUE CHIP TOTAL - mia fla/s.caro over

PERSONAL FAVORITE - arizona st

MAIN EVENT - nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chuck Luck

10 units Miami Florida. (Cfb)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Bowl Game

3* - Miami Florida -3 (-130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the pressbox / phil steele

ncaaf best bets

arizona st.

Penn st.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter (NCAA Football)

#227 Virginia Tech +3 vs #228 (2*)

#230 Arizona -7 vs Duke (3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREDICTION MACHINE (Bowl Games)

230 ARIST vs. DUKE 67.5 ♦ 57.6 Under 61% (Top Total Play)

228 VA TECH vs CIN 3.5 4.2 ♦ 60.5% (Top Side Play)

236 USC vs NEB -6 10.3 ♦ 56.1% (Half-Bet Play)

231 MIA-FL vs SC -1 5 ♦ 55.5% (Light Play)

234 PSU vs BC 2.5 0.8 ♦ 54.9% (Light Play)

[golden contender]

Saturday Triple Perfect Bowl Dog of the Year head lines a Powerful Bowl card with 3 Big Bowl system plays all cashing over 90% long term. In NCAAB Action its a Big 6* 100% Revenge play and 27-0 NBA Power system side, NBA 2-0 last night. Football ranked #1 overall for a 7th straight week. Free Bowl total below.


On Saturday the free College Bowl total is on the Under in the Pinstripe Bowl. Rotations numbers 233/234 at 4:30 eastern. Boston College and Penn. St do battle here tonight in what looks to be a defensive battle. The last 3 in this series have stayed under and both teams ave under indicators that apply to this game. Penn. St scores and allows just 15 points in non home games and has stayed under in 4 of 5 vs ACC Teams, 3 of 3 in December games and 3 of the last 4 off 2 or more losses. Boston College allows just 17 points on the road and has stayed under in 7 of 10 on Saturday and 7 of 9 v Big 10 schools. Both teams allow under 95 yards per game on the ground and the Eagles are tied for first in the nation in fumbles allowed with just 3. The Lions have one of the best defenses in the country. Look for this one to go under the total. On Saturday a Tremendous Bowl and Hoops card is up led by the Triple Perfect Dog of the year + 3 More Big Bowls system winners with systems dating to 1980. In College Hoops the lead play is a 6* Undefeated Revenge Play as well as another Big 27-0 system play in the NBA Which went 2-0 last night. Jump on now and put the power of this cutting edge data On your side. For the free play take The Under in the Boston College vs Penn. St game. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

4 Units

511 Indiana Pacers/Brooklyn Nets Over 191.5

4 Units

228 Cincinnati U -2.5 over Virginia Tech (NCAAFB)

3 Units

527 Kentucky -5 over Louisville

3 Units

230 Arizona St. -7 over Duke (NCAAFB)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

4* USC
3* South Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

7 Unit Play Take #231 Miami -3.5 over South* Carolina (3:30 pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

7 Unit Play Take #231 Miami -3.5 over South* Carolina (3:30 pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

MILITARY BOWL
Annapolis, MD
VA Tech vs. Cincinnati (-2-) 1:00 ET ESPN

This is a matchup of old-school Beamer Ball and the high-scoring offense of the Cincinnati Bearcats. Once again to close the season, VA Tech was life and death for Bowl eligibility, needing to win their final game at home against rival Virginia (24-20) to qualify. But the 5-7 ATS log for the season, now drops Beamer to 17-34 ATS. The special teams’ magic is gone, DC Foster has failed to update his defensive coverage and, as usual, the VA Tech QB showed little resemblance to the dual threat athletes of many of the major programs. This year’s starter, QB Brewer, had a 17/14 ratio. The only remaining sign of success is that the fundamental conservative style of the Hokies has resulted in the underdog being 16-7 ATS in their games of late. But, they will be hard-pressed to keep up with the fast-paced style of the Bearcats under HC Tuberville. Cincinnati enters as one of the hottest teams on the CFB landscape with 7 consecutive victories, a 6-0-1 ATS mark and the rifle arm of QB Kiel. The Bearcats are building a Bowl tradition of their own with a program that has recorded 10+ wins in 5/7 years and is now appearing in their 8th Bowl in the last 9 years. Should the Hokies fall behind in this, it would be a monumental task for them to catch up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NHL | NEW JERSEY at NY RANGERS
Play On - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (NEW JERSEY) off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
62-45 since 1997. ( 57.9% | 41.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.6 units )

NHL | EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Road teams against the money line (EDMONTON) revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more, off an embarrassing loss by 4 goals or more to a division rival
79-27 since 1997. ( 74.5% | 41.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

NHL | DETROIT at OTTAWA
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (DETROIT) off a win by 3 goals or more over a division rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team
44-27 since 1997. ( 62.0% | 31.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Winnipeg won three of its last four games.
-- Islanders won four of their last five games.
-- Columbus won eight of last ten games. Bruins won three of their last four.
-- Rangers won their last seven games, allowing ten goals.
-- Washington won seven of its last ten games. Penguins won their last five home games.
-- Flyers. Predators both won five of their last seven games.
-- Dallas Stars won four of their last five games.
-- Anaheim won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Blackhawks won 11 of their last 14 games. Colorado won last three games, allowing two goals.
-- San Jose won five of its last six games.

Cold teams
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
-- Ottawa lost ten of its last thirteen games; Red Wings lost six of their last seven.
-- Hurricanes lost eight of their last ten games. Lightning lost six of last nine games.
-- Buffalo lost last four games, outscored 20-8.
-- Devils lost seven of last eight games, fired their coach Friday.
-- Blues lost last three games, outscored 14-6.
-- Coyotes lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Los Angeles lost six of its last nine games.
-- Calgary lost eight of its last nine games. Edmonton lost last eight games, outscored 30-15.

Series records
-- Jets lost five of last six games with Minnesota.
-- Red Wings won three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Lightning won eight of last nine games with Carolina.
-- Islanders won five of last seven visits to Buffalo.
-- Bruins won their last seven games with Columbus.
-- Rangers won their last three games with New Jersey.
-- Penguins won their last eight games with Washington.
-- Flyers won four of last six games with Nashville.
-- Dallas Stars won three of last four games with St Louis.
-- Ducks won six of last seven games with Arizona.
-- Avalanche won three of last four games with Chicago.
-- Kings won four of last five games with San Jose.
-- Flames won four of last five games with Edmonton.

Totals
-- Last four Minnesota home games went over total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Carolina road games stayed under.
-- Last four Buffalo home games went over total.
-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Columbus games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Ranger home games.
-- Six of last seven Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Nashville home games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine St Louis home games.
-- Eight of last nine Arizona road games went over.
-- Under is 7-0-2 in last nine Chicago road games.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in San Jose's last seven road games.
-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Calgary home games.

Back-to-back
-- None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - Any team (UCF) poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

CFB | NC STATE at UCF
Play On - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season
39-17 since 1997. ( 69.6% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

CFB | NOTRE DAME at LSU
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with North Carolina (-3) on Friday and likes Arizona State on Saturday.

The deficit is 1388 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Budin - CEO

Saturday's Play

The Cali-Cartel has a 50 Dime play on Cincinnati against V-Tech in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland. The Bearcats are -2' to -3 at the Vegas and offshore books I've checked as of 5:10 A.M. Eastern. As a former Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) - and son of a former Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) - I would strongly encourage you to buy the half-point insurance down on Cincy if your price is anywhere between -3 and -4 1/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

227 Virginia Tech +2.5
229 Duke +7
233 Penn State +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOLD MEDAL CLUB
CBB Selections
526 Wisc Green Bay -4.5
528 Louisville + 6

All In CFB Selection
235 Nebraska +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS (Bowl Game)

4* Cincinnati-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HALL OF FAME PICKS (CBB)

563 Colorado State(-2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER (Bowl Games)

4* Cincinnati-2
2* Arizona St.-7
3* South Carolina+3
3* BC-2
3* USC-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks Kentucky at Louisville The Wildcats head to instate rival Louisville today where they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus the Cardinals. Kentucky is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-6). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST


Game 521-522: Indiana vs. Georgetown (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 64.907; Georgetown 70.099
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 5
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 3
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-3)


Game 523-524: Wright State at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 55.147; Ohio State 77.743
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-17 1/2)


Game 525-526: Georgia State at WI-Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 61.093; WI-Green Bay 63.688
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+5)


Game 527-528: Kentucky at Louisville (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 83.845; Louisville 75.464
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-6)


Game 529-530: NC-Wilmington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 49.988; Minnesota 66.201
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 16
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+19 1/2)


Game 531-532: Santa Clara at St. Mary's (CA) (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 53.591; St. Mary's (CA) 59.828
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 6
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 10
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+10)


Game 529-530: NC-Wilmington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 49.988; Minnesota 66.201
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 16
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+19 1/2)


Game 531-532: Santa Clara at St. Mary's (CA) (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 53.591; St. Mary's (CA) 59.828
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 6
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 10
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+10)


Game 533-534: Oakland at Maryland (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 50.856; Maryland 73.301
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 17
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-17)


Game 535-536: UAB at North Carolina (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 50.764; North Carolina 72.748
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 22
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 25
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+25)


Game 537-538: Portland at San Diego (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 57.585; San Diego 62.088
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+7)


Game 539-540: Gonzaga at BYU (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 71.950; BYU 69.588
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6
Dunkel Pick: BYU (+6)


Game 541-542: San Francisco at Pacific (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 59.707; Pacific 55.343
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2)


Game 543-544: IUPUI at Pepperdine (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 43.906; Pepperdine 60.146
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 16
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (-12 1/2)


Game 545-546: Mercer at Georgia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 50.680; Georgia 71.000
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 16
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-16)


Game 547-548: Tennessee State at Tennessee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 41.645; Tennessee 61.160
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 22
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+22)


Game 549-550: Southern Utah at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 39.980; UNLV 65.176
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 25
Vegas Line: UNLV by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-18 1/2)


Game 561-562: Kennesaw State at Illinois (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kennesaw State 42.187; Illinois 65.571
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kennesaw State (+26 1/2)


Game 563-564: Colorado State at New Mexico State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 62.334; New Mexico State 57.692
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-2)


Game 565-566: Maine at Seton Hall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maine 38.561; Seton Hall 68.856
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 30 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 25
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-25)


Game 567-568: Northern Kentucky at Northwestern (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Kentucky 49.575; Northwestern 60.838
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-9 1/2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sample:

2U: Georgetown/San Diego MLs (+109)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

triple-dime bet Duke/AZ St. UNDER 65.5
double-dime bet VTECH +3 ...has VTECH winning outright as well

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football CrusherBoston College -150 over Penn State
(System Record: 46-5, won last game)Overall Record: 46-42-3

Rest of the Plays
Duke +7 over Arizona State
Nebraska +7 over USC
Miami Florida + South Carolina UNDER 61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Los Angeles Kings -136 over San Jose Sharks
(System Record: 40-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 40-31-1

Rest of the Plays
Ottawa Senators +113 over Detroit Red Wings
Boston Bruins -132 over Columbus Blue Jackets
Chicago Blackhawks -152 over Colorado Avs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman

5 star USC
Regular
AZ St
So Car

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel Dupont

50 Dime Winner #13 of 16

BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

miami / s carolina under 62

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE BASKETBALL KEY RELEASES
NORTH CAROLINA over Uab (Sat) RATING: 1

(12:00) Georgetown 62 - Indiana 61 (ESPN2) (Md Sq Gdn) _____

(12:00) OHIO STATE 76 - Wright State 63 (BIG10) _____ _____

(1:00) WISC- GREEN BAY 69 - Georgia State 64 _____ _____

(2:00) Kentucky 85 - Louisville 76 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(3:00) MINNESOTA 78 - UNC-Wilmington 66 (BIG10) _____ _____

(4:00) SAINT MARYS 74 - Santa Clara 72 _____ _____

(5:00) MARYLAND 77 - Oakland 65 (BIG10) _____ _____

(7:30) NORTH CAROLINA 89 - Uab 62 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(9:00) SAN DIEGO 64 - Portland 61 _____ _____

(9:30) Gonzaga 73 - BYU 72 (ESPN2) _____ _____

(10:00) San Francisco 71 - PACIFIC 67 _____ _____

BEST BETS: WRIGHT STATE, KENTUCKY, NORTH CAROLINA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

A split of our two picks last night, and a break even day as NC State was paying +100. Lots of action here on Saturday, and we've got four plays to go with it.
2 UNIT = Duke @ Arizona State - DUKE +7.5 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
2 UNIT = Penn State @ Boston College - PENN STATE +2.5 (-101)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.98 units)
2 UNIT = Miami Florida @ South Carolina - SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)
2 UNIT = Nebraska @ USC - NEBRASKA +7 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi
Bowl Games
4 Duke
3 Virginia Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS LOCK CLUB (Bowl Games)

5* Duke +7.5
4* Cincinnati -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BigBetTiger

Virginia Tech+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS RUNNER

$600 – Miami-3 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MADDUX SPORTS (CBB)

Oakland +16.5
IUPUI+13.5
Mercer +16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Banker Sports comp play
5.5 unit V tech/Cincinnati under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond Free Play

NCAA-F | Dec 27, 2014
Penn State vs. Boston

10* College Penn State +3-105
This game will feature the 6-6 Penn State and the 7-5 Boston College. Penn State after the bowl ban was lifted has returned to it’s first bowl game since 2012 and I believe this game will mean more to PSU then it does to Boston College. Penn State has the number 1 rush defense in the country and I think that will really hurt Boston College who rely on the run heavily. 68% of the betting public has taken Boston College and this line has barely budged showing us big time sharp action on PSU. Take Penn State plus the points today for a easy 10* winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Military Bowl (2*)

GoodFella | CFB Side Saturday, 12/27/2014 1:00 PM
227 Virginia Tech3.0 (-110) Americasbookie.com vs 228 Cincinnati
Analysis:
2* on VTECH +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3* Penn St +3 Boston College 4:30 Espn (Pinstripe)
3* OVER 62 Holiday Bowl 8 pm (USC / Nebraska)
Bowl Top Opinion:
**USC -7 Nebraska - 8 pm Espn (Holiday)
Arizona St -7 Duke - 2 pm CBS (Sun)
Marquee DOUBLE - UNDER 40 Pinstripe Bowl (Penn St/ Boston College) 4:30 pm
Reg Opinion:
Marquee SINGLE - OVER 62 Independence Bowl (Miami/ S Carolina) 3:30 pm
Miami, Fl -3.5 South Carolina - 3:30 pm ABC (Independence)
Marquee SINGLE - UNDER 50.5 Military Bowl (Cincinnati/ Va Tech) 1 pm
Had to pickem:
Marquee SINGLE - OVER 66 Sun Bowl (Duke / Arizona St) 2 pm CBS
Virginia Tech +2.5/+3 Cincinnati - 1 pm Espn (Military)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

8 Unit Side Play · [227] Virginia Tech Hokies
Noble Technology Sat Dec 27th, 2014 1:00pm EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Hilton- Gameday

2- Ariz St
1- South Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover December Parlay
double-dime bets (individually) South Carolina +3.5 & OVER 62 SoCal/NEB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler
triple-dime bet
Wisc GB -5

double-dime bets
OVER 61 SC/MIA
VA TECH +

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

Gonzaga -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Miami -3.5

100* Georgetown -3

100* UNLV -19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Arizona State -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat jack


Va tech +3
Duke+7.5
Miami -3
Nebraska +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bones best bet (nhl)

bruins ml -130 *2*
senators ml +115 *2*
penguins -1 +105 *2*
ducks -1 +108 *2*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Art Aronson

8* Arizona State -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

Kentucky -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

NCAAF
1.5* South Carolina +3.5 (-110)
1* Virginia Tech +3 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ARTHUR RALPH

Super PK CBB Pacfic + 3

Bowl Blue Ribbons South Carolina + 3 1/2, Duke + 7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ats lockclub b-ball
5* gonzaga -5
4* pacific +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Billy Sharp - Michigan Godfather

3 units
(NCAAB)#527 Kentucky -6 (-105)
(NCAAF)#230 Arizona St. -7 (-112)
2 units
(NBA)#501 - 502 Raptors/Clippers Under 212 (-102)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang
75 DIME
OFF LINE
MONEY MOVE
#5 IN A ROW
Boston College

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday Bowling

4* Best Bet = VIRGINIA TECH
3* = SOUTH CAROLINA
2* = Penn State
2* = Usc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nelly

USC -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (CBB)

1-Unit Take #531 Santa Clara (+10) over St. Mary’s (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

The Gaels are a good team and they play great at home. But this is the start of conference play and I don’t think they are that far ahead of the Broncos. St. Mary’s already has home losses to Northern Arizona and Boise State. And they barely beat Northeastern and UC-Irvine at home as well. This St. Mary’s team has been built on transfers. These guys still aren’t used to playing with one another and the chemistry still is a work in progress. Santa Clara is mediocre. But they have a couple real good guards and they have hung around against decent teams like Utah State, Tennessee and Northeastern. Again, it’s the start of WCC play and I don’t see a blowout in this one.

1-Unit Take #537 Portland (+7) over San Diego (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

1-Unit Take #540 BYU (+6) over Gonzaga (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

2-Unit Take #549 Southern Utah (+18.5) over UNLV (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

Just a good old-fashioned letdown spot to bet against the Runnin’ Rebels. They are coming off a huge win over Arizona last game. And next up is the conference opener against Wyoming. Smack in the middle is a game against Southern Utah. How do you get up for Southern Utah? UNLV will control this game. But I don’t know that I’d count on a 20-point blowout win from this young team. They start three freshmen and five of their top eight players are freshmen. This one has Letdown City written all over it.

1-Unit Take #541 San Francisco (-3) over Pacific (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

I was very surprised that San Francisco was posted as a favorite in this one. They have been shaky as hell – losing three of their last four games – and they stink on the road. But here they are. They are just 6-6 and facing an 8-4 opponent, yet they are favored. That’s a red flag. Pacific is one of the youngest teams in the WCC and three of their wins have come against D-II schools. The rest of their wins have come in tight games against weak competition. San Fran has been losing. But they have been losing to decent mid-major teams like Cleveland State, Eastern Washington, Colorado and Evansville. They need to prove that they can win and not just keep things close. I’ll follow the number.

1-Unit Take #563 Colorado State (-2) over New Mexico State (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

With three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup this Colorado State club one of the most experienced teams in the West. They have quality wins over Georgia State, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Colorado. That win over Colorado was a true road win and I think that Colorado State has a chance to stay perfect by beating back New Mexico State. The Aggies are still a solid little squad. But they are down two starters (Dan Mullings and Tshilidzi Nephawe) and this just isn’t the same caliber of team as last year. NMSUhas lost five of six against D-I competition and they have been playing well.

2-Unit Take #562 Illinois (-26) over Kennesaw State (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27)

At some point these assholes have to cover a spread. They just do. It is ridiculous. I do not care if I have to bet on these guys 47 straight times just to win one game. At some point they are going to cover a spread after an 0-5 ATS run (it should be noted that they started the year 4-0 ATS). They were up 26 with 1:20 to play against a Hampton team that is better than KSU before we got completely screwed with a BS 8-0 run in the last 75 seconds to blow a big cover last week. But this Illinois squad beat Austin Peay by 41 earlier this year and have a 26-point win over MVC team Indiana State. So Kennesaw State is worse than both of those teams. This game should be a god damn blood bath. Kennesaw State lost to Butler by 42, to Florida International by 21, to Cal by 34 and to Syracuse by 47. They should oblige to this ass-kicking. Illinois should score 80+ points and I don’t think KSU will keep up.

2-Unit Take #565 Maine (+25) over Seton Hall (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 27)

I don’t think there is any doubt that Seton Hall is going to win this game and win easily. But they are going to be playing without their best player, Isaiah Whitehead, and I think it is a lot to ask a team to go out and beat an opponent – even a weak opponent – by 30 points without their best guy. The Pirates also have a big rivalry game with St. John’s on Wednesday followed by a date with Villanova next Saturday. So things are about to get serious and conference play is looming. That makes this game against the Black Bears simply a nuisance. Seton Hall will win. But a 17-point win will have to suffice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

Power Play Of The Day

NCAA Football: USC -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DHAYES2

2* Va Tech +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
2* Kentucky -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sky blue


Virginia Tech (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/259/virginia-tech-hokies) +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

100 Unit Bowl Underdog Shocker of the Year
NEBRASKA +7

20 Units BC
15 Arizona St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS Wiseguy War Room

CFB
3*) VT -3

CBB
4*) IUPUI +12
3*) Green Bay -5
3*) Santa Clara +10
3*) Tennessee.-22

NBA
4*) New Orleans +9.5
3*) Boston +9.5
3*) Memphis-2.5

NHL
4*) Minnesota OVER 5
3*) Detroit -125
3*) Washington +145
2*) Dallas +155
2*) Edmonton +170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
CBB
3* BYU
3* Portland
5* Col. St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA


4* Virginia Tech


3* Arizona State


3* Miami / South Carolina Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS RUNNER

600 VT+3
500 Washington +6 (cbb)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service
4* U.S.C. -7 over Nebraska (NCAAF)


3* S. Carolina +3 over Miami-Florida (NCAAF)


3* Brooklyn -1 over Indiana (NBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks
L.A. Clippers -5 over Toronto (NBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

5* Cincinnati -3 over Virginia Tech (NCAAF)
Range: -1.5 to -5


3* Arizona St. -7 over Duke (NCAAF)
Range: -5 to -9


3* Penn St. +3 over Boston College (NCAAF)
Range: +5 to +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vincent Rizzo Sports ‏

College Basketball — Colorado State -2 (1U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philly Godfather

Knicks +5.5
Under 202.5 Boston/Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Saturday NCAA Bowl Comp Pick
December 27th 2014

Boston College -3 over Penn State
Boston College has all seniors on that offensive line and a mobile QB that give defenses nightmares because they simply can’t prepare for them. Penn State had an amazing defense this year, but they are not used to this kind of style and there is a huge height advantage for the receivers against these defensive backs which is crazy because they are pretty big themselves. Penn State has struggled on the offensive line all season long and their QB is the definition of the word sophomore slump. This team just doesn’t have any offensive balance this year and not being able to run the football hurts in a bowl game. This is a team that has been saved by their defense all year long. I think Boston College is a better team right now. You saw last night with NC State what that type of duel threat QB means to a team. Murphy is actually best friends with the Wolfpack QB from last night as they both transferred from Florida. Boston College should pound their way to a big bowl win today. Take BC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK


VT/Cincy OVER 50
Miami -3
Nebraska +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

3G SPORTS

GOW – Penn St.
USC
Duke
Cincy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MONEY MAVERICK
NCAAF:

Arizona State -7 (10 units)
Nebraska +7 (10 units)


NBA:


Hawks -4 (10 units)


NCAAB:


Kentucky -5.5 (10 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sheep
Open Order
Va Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SHARP

Added plays
4 Units

501 Toronto Raptors/Los Angels Clippers Over 212.5


2 Units

517 New York Knicks/Sacramento Kings Over 200.5

2 Units
564 New Mexico St. +2.5 over Colorado St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root
No Limit Va Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant – all 2*
College Football -- Military Bowl
#227 VIRGINIA TECH +3 (-115)


College Football -- Sun Bowl
#229 DUKE +7.5


College Football -- Pinstripe Bowl
#233 Penn State +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

2 Units Virginia Tech / Cincinnati Over 50.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

Millionaires---Penn St
No Limit---Virginia Tech
Perfect Play---Miami-Florida
_____________________________

Inner Circle---Duke

The Duke Blue Devils continue to be a sterling representation of solid all around football. Duke is 9-3 on the year and 5-3 within their own division. On Saturday the #15 ranked Arizona State Sun Devils will come to town to take part in the Hyundai Sun Bowl. Duke is a solid passing team though they prefer to do their damage by pounding the ball and controlling the clock with their strong defense. Duke's QB Anthony Boone has led the team to 2,500 yards and 17 scores on his own this year. Jamis Crowder has been the man to target split out wide. For Arizona St, QB Taylor Kelly leads the team with 1,874 yards and 20 touchdowns so far this year. Big wide out Jaelen Strong has been un-guardable by defensive backs and he will look to continue to stretch the field. The PAC 12 would easily defeat most ACC teams but this is the exception. TAKE DUKE

________________________________________

Pinnacle (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fcappersmall2.com%2Flines.ph p)---Nebraska

An intriguing match-up between two traditional football powers takes place on December 27th when a 9-3 Nebraska team takes on a 24th ranked USC team that is 8-3. The Cornhuskers are led by sophomore quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. who has thrown 19 TDs and 2,314 yards. Their ground attack features the fun to watch 5’9” Ameer Abdullah who has 1,523 yards on the ground this season, and an even 4,500 in his career at Nebraska. Nebraska stumbled a bit at the end of the year, losing to Wisconsin and Minnesota before nipping Iowa by 3 points in overtime to end the season. USC lost two weeks ago to rival UCLA before ending the year with a 49-14 win over Notre Dame. USC is capable of some big errors and look for Nebraska to capitalize. TAKE NEBRASKA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arlon Sports

San Francisco -3
Portland +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones
NCAAF-Virginia Tech University(+3)-143...(2*)
NCAAF-Over 62.5 USC/Nebraska University -113...(2*)
NBA-Golden State Warriors(-17)-104...(1*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
CBB
Northern Kentucky +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* Kentucky-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass

400* USC Trojans
400* under BC-PSU
300*Duke
300*over Duke
300* Miami
300* over USC-Nebraska
200*BC
200*Va Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prime Time Sports
Lock Miami FL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insides Edge
40 Duke Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Star
Gem Miami FL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Magliosa
Miami Florida Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheRealWiseOne:


V Tech +1 1/2 $3,000
Vtech +3 (buy 1) $3,000 more (after line moved to +2)
Duke +8 (buy 1/2) $3,000


2 team teaser= $3,000
VTech +8 1/2
USC pk


Other teasers each $3,000
Vtech +8 1/2
Duke +14 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Touchdown Club
Over Nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed
Penn St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive
300 Miami
250 Arizona St
250 Nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Unlmited/Marco D'Angelo

5 Miami FL
3 Penn St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Wright

5 Nebraska
5 Duke

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Leiner 2000 USC 500 BC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NESS LEGEND

S. Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DR.BOB

Celtics

IUPUI
Chicago Bulls

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By Mike O'Connor

I'm adding 2-stars on the 49ers -6.5 and 2-stars on the Redskins +5.5 to go along with the play that I sent on Wednesday on the Chiefs (see below). That's it for this week unless there is a line move or I uncover some other significant information. I'll send a final update early on Sunday AM.

Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***KANSAS CITY (-2.5 -120) 29 San Diego 17

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 320 Over/Under 42.5

The Chargers were lucky to win last week against a 49ers team that played inspired football early in building a 28-7 second quarter lead but then let the Chargers back in the game late in an eventual 38-35 overtime win for the Chargers. Although turnovers were even, the 49ers were -3 in fumbles (three fumbles with all three lost for the 49ers with San Diego fumbling once and recovering it themselves), indicating a bit of luck on the Chargers part. In fact, on the season overall San Diego has only fumbled 14 times (tied for third best) and lost 4 while their opponents have fumbled 21 times and lost 11. From a match-up perspective, the Chiefs good rushing attack (averaging 120 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 106 yards at 4.2 ypr) face a San Diego rush defense that has allowed 126 yards at 4.7 ypr to teams that gain 112 yards at 4.4 ypr and just allowed the 49ers to rush for 355 yards at 8.9 ypr last week. They won’t be able to stop the Chiefs running game in this one while they likely won’t have a ground game to speak of themselves (averaging 83 yards at 3.5 ypr to teams that allow 104 yards at 4.1 ypr). If an immobile Rivers is put in predicable passing situations he’ll be faced with a strong Chiefs pass rush (tied for 8th in sacks ) and a strong pass defense that is allowing just 200 passing yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that gain 235 yards at 6.3 ypr. Adding the fact that Rivers has been banged up and will be playing with an offensive line that may be on their fifth center and just lost starting right guard Johnnie Troutman has me leaning with the Chiefs. When considering the fact that Kansas City also qualifies in a good 154-96-9 situation that plays on certain teams with worse records late in the season and benefit from a negative 114-199-8 statistical match-up indicator that plays against the Chargers, I can’t pass up Kansas City in this spot. We know that San Diego is in the playoffs with a win but the Chiefs still have a shot (need a win and some help) and will no doubt be playing this game all out. I’ll take Kansas City -2.5 -120 for 3-stars up to -3 -110 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -120.

12/26 UPDATE: With the surprisingly unfortunate news that Alex Smith is now out of this game with a lacerated spleen, I’m estimating an adjustment of 3.5 points. That being said, I don’t recommend the Chiefs at anything less than a PK for 2-stars for those that have not played this game already at the Wednesday release of -2.5 (-120). For those of you that have played already, I recommend staying with our position and I'll be graded at that number. The backup is Chase Daniel and while he hasn’t had a lot of experience in his six seasons, he played well last season in his start in Week 17 against the Chargers (21-30 for 200 yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions) in a 24-27 overtime loss. Kansas City has confidence in him and I expect that the rest of the team will rally for the Chiefs win.
**WASHINGTON (+5.5) 28 Dallas 25

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 324 Over/Under 49.5

The Cowboys have won the NFC East but still have a shot at a first round bye although it’s extremely unlikely while the Redskins are trying to end the season on a winning note. The Redskins beat the Eagles 27-24 last week and would love nothing more than to end their season with consecutive divisional victories. They should have a good chance at doing just that as Dallas could be a bit flat after their 42-7 home win last week against the Colts and their 38-27 win at Philadelphia the week prior. Not to mention the likelihood of having a playoff game next week. Washington actually matches up fairly well with the Cowboys with an offense that rates as just above average facing a Dallas defense that is below average overall and can be exploited, particularly in the passing game (allowing 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps). Robert Griffin connected with DeSean Jackson on a couple of deep balls last week (4 for 126 yards) and I suspect we’ll see more of that in this game. In addition, the Redskins have been effective in limiting opponents ground games (allowing 104 yards at 4.0 ypr to teams that gain 114 yards at 4.3 ypr) and could slow down the Cowboys good rush offense. This is too many points to give a divisional rival on the road in what is likely a meaningless game for the favorite and my model only favors the Cowboys by 2.2 points. I’ll take the Redskins +5.5 for 2-stars down to +4.
**SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) 27 Arizona 13

Sun Dec-28-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 330 Over/Under 36.5

The Cardinals are reeling with the loss of their top two quarterbacks and are now faced with the prospect of playing Ryan Lindley in this game and potentially through the playoffs. Lindley has not been good as since entering the league in 2012 he has 225 pass attempts without scoring a touchdown and has thrown nine interceptions. Last week against the Seahawks he was terrible, passing for 187 yards at 3.8 yps with one interception and taking four sacks. Part of the problem in this game for the Cardinals is that they don’t have much of a run game to lean on (averaging 85 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 105 yards at 4.2 ypr) while the 49ers are tough defending the run (allowing 4.2 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr on average). While the San Francisco defense isn’t at the same level as the Seahawks, it’s still very good in allowing 317 total yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that average 353 yards at 5.6 yppl and is tied for second in the league with 20 interceptions. I expect that a motivated 49ers team, playing in their final game at home with Jim Harbaugh as coach will play well and will be very difficult to beat. Offensively, Frank Gore and a good 49ers running game that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 109 yards at 4.3 ypr should be able to run the ball on a Cardinals rush defense that has played well at times but overall are just better than average (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.4 ypr). The 49ers get a fumble luck adjustment in this game as they have had poor fortune in regards to fumbles while the Cardinals have been lucky (have only lost 5 of their 16 offensive fumbles while opponents have lost 7 of their 13). The 49ers qualify in good 681-503-40 and 32-5 situations and my model, adjusted for Lindley, favors San Francisco by 9.5 points. I like the spot for the 49ers as they try to send Harbaugh out with a win and with both good situations and line value I’ll take the 49ers -6.5 for 2-stars up to -7.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux
CBB
10* lou +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING AS A BUSINESS

NCAAB 5:00 et

Oakland +16.5 / Maryland 5:00 ET 1.25 Unit
(Play ON Oakland)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

jack jones

20* south Carolina
15* penn st

15* hornets under
20*bulls under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster CBB:


#543 IUPUI +12
#545 Mercer +15½
#549 S Utah +18
#563 Colorado state -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
4* raptors +5