12-31-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob



I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points.

The math also projects just 63 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.



Arizona is playing this game in their home state but the Wildcats don’t have any other advantages and I’m not sure the proximity to home will be that much of an advantage given how Boise State’s fans tend to travel well for bowl games. The Broncos and their fans are excited about being the non-power conference team to get invited to a major bowl and I expect Boise to win this game straight up against an overrated Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. Arizona also beat Oregon in Eugene but that impressive win was one of just 2 really impressive games that the Wildcats played this season (the other being a 42-10 win at Utah). The rest of the year was pretty mediocre and the Cats’ 10-3 record is due in large part to their good fortune in close games. The Wildcats are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less and they are more like an 8-5 or 7-6 team than a 10-3 team. That mediocrity shows in their stats, as Arizona only outgained their opponents by 7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. Arizona’s schedule was only 4.9 points tougher than an average FBS team and the Wildcats are only 5.4 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and only 7 points better than average overall (that includes special teams and projected turnovers). That rating is a few points lower than their rating based purely on points because their point margin was influenced by some turnover luck (+3 in defensive touchdowns off turnovers) and a Hail Mary pass to beat Cal (which I don’t include in my stats because I consider Hail Mary passes random).

Boise State is better than Arizona on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. The Broncos averaged 501 total yards and 6.7 yards per play this season while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Broncos are well balanced with Jay Ajayi (1689 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns) leading a ground attack that averages 237 yards and 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) while quarterback Grant Hedrick takes care of the aerial attack with 71% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The passing game is even better now that WR Dallas Burroughs no longer gets snaps and sophomore Thomas Sperbeck is a featured receiver. Burroughs averaged just 4.3 yards on the 28 passes directed at him in the first half of the season and a mid-season injury to senior WR Matt Miller was a blessing in disguise, as it put Sperbeck in the lineup. Sperbeck leads the Broncos in receiving yards despite not playing the first 4 games of the season and his 12.0 yards per pass thrown to him also leads the team. Boise’s pass attack has been 0.2 yppp better since week 5 when Sperbeck starting playing and Boise State’s offense currently rates at 1.0 yppl better than average, which gives the Broncos a big advantage over an Arizona defense that is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 513 yards at 6.4 yppl for Boise State in this game. Boise State has averaged 39.8 points per game on an average of 501 yards and they’re projected to score 35 points in this game.


Arizona’s offense tallies a lot of yards because they run a lot of plays but the Wildcats are just 0.1 yppl better than average, averaging a modest 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. I decided not to include the last two games since an injured foot hindered the mobility of quarterback Anu Solomon, which made him more prone to getting sacked (8 sacks the last two games) and kept him from running effectively. Solomon should be pretty close to 100% for this game but the Wildcats’ are still just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively if I exclude those final two games. Boise State’s defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl) but that average was skewed by the 627 yards at 9.7 yppl in their game against the New Mexico triple-option. My model adjusts for outliers and Boise’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after that adjustment. Boise also struggled defending the run against the Air Force option and while the Broncos were just barely better than average defending the run overall they were very good against the run when not facing a team that runs the triple-option. In those 11 games the Broncos allowed just 4.2 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team. Boise allowed less than 4.0 yprp in 7 of 11 games against non-option teams so their run defense is actually very good despite their overall mediocre numbers that were skewed by their two games against option offenses. That math projects 414 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona in this game, which equates to about 29 points after factoring in the Wildcats’ 2.3 points advantage in special teams (projected turnovers are even).

Boise State has a projected advantage of 99 total yards at 0.9 yards per play and the Broncos appear to be the better team. I didn’t give any points to Arizona for playing in their home state since there isn’t any compelling evidence that playing in your home state (and not your actual home stadium) is an advantage. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points. The math also projects just 63 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

10* Mississippi +3.5
10* Boise St +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sharp


6 Unit Bowl Game of the Year

249 Mississippi +3.5 over TCU


Huge letdown disappointment spot here for TCU being cut out of the top 4. Ole Miss has an excellent defense with a month to prepare and the TCU offense has pretty much shown everything on their title run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Bowls

4* - Boise State +3
3* - Mississippi +4

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Marc Lawrence phone plays

Boise

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root

mill BOISE
perfect MISS ST fav bowl goy
Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) MISS goy
PERFECT PLAY--MISSISSIPPI STATE; Bowl Favorite of Year

On New Year’s Eve, the 7th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will tangle with the 12th ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the Capitol One Orange Bowl. Mississippi State made great strides this season and spent a couple of weeks as the #1 team in the country. However, losses at Alabama and Ole Miss in their final three games took away their chance of competing in the inaugural College Football Playoffs. The Bulldogs are led on offense by junior QB Dak Prescott. Prescott threw for almost 3,000 yards and rushed for nearly 1,000 to go along with 37 total touchdowns. Junior RB Josh Robinson amassed 1128 rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns to compliment their offense. For Georgia Tech, they played their game against Florida St and came up short. Georgia Tech ranks 65th in total defense and allow an average of 25.1 points per game. Expect plenty of points and in this high scoring affair, the favorite will cover. TAKE MISS ST


Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com)--MISSISSIPPI; BOWL GAME OF YEAR

This year’s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl will feature and exciting matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and TCU Horned Frogs.
Ole Miss started the season 7-0 and looked poised to be one of the four playoff teams in College Football’s inaugural playoff. Unfortunately, three straight SEC losses at the hands of LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas derailed the Rebels chances. The play that defined the season for Ole Miss was when WR LaQuon Treadwell appeared to have scored the go ahead touchdown late against Auburn. However, replay determined that he fumbled the ball before crossing the goal line and was lost for the season with a leg injury on the play. For the season, Ole Miss ranks 31st in passing offense, 60th in rushing offense, and 57th in scoring offense. The TCU Horned Frogs were the darlings of college football in many ways this season. TCU featured a new and exciting spread attack on offense that resulted in lots of points. Junior QB Trevone Boykin leads the offense with 3714 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Boykin is a duel-threat QB that rushed for 642 yards and eight touchdowns as well. TCU was crowned co-champions of the Big 12 with Baylor, despite losing 61-58 to the Bears in the middle of the season. In the end, the playoff selection committee gave the nod to Ohio State over TCU and Baylor for the fourth and final playoff spot. Emotionally this will not bode well for TCU. Look for the Ole Miss defense to be able to stop TCU's offense. TAKE MISSISSIPPI.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

Tcu 29 - Mississippi 20
Boise State 32 - ARIZONA 31
Mississippi St. 30 - Georgia Tech 29

[golden contender]

New Years Eve card has Big 90+% Powers system plays and Undefeated angles in Bowl action, 2 Big NCAAB dominator system plays and an NBA Perfect system side. Football is ranked #1 for an 8th straight week and NCAAB is top 3. Free NBA Afternoon totals plays below.




On Wednesday the free NBA Totals system play is on the Under in the Miami at Indiana game at 3:05 eastern. The Heat have played under in all 5 games vs Central Division teams this year and have posted under the total in 3 of 4 games with home loss revenge as a well as 5 of 7 off a favored loss. The Pacers have stayed under in 10 of 15 at home. The System in this game is to play the under for rested road teams that scored 100 or more but failed to cover the spread as a home favorite of 5 or more, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more and covered as a home dog. These game shave stayed under the total over 80% of the time since 1995. Look for a close scoring game that stays under the posted total. On New Years eve another Powerful card takes center stage with Bowl systems and angles that are cashing over 90%. In Hoops NCAAB has been Dominant and their are 2 Powerful Dominator systems up as well as a Perfect system NBA Play. Jump on and End the year Big with the Most Powerful data in the Industry as we close out another banner year. For the free NBA Play take the under in the Miami at Indiana Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just Cover Baby

5* Georgia Tech +6½
3* Mississippi +3
2* Arizona -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

D.K. of Banker Sports
5.5 units TCU/Ole Miss OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with LSU (-7 1/2) on Tuesday and likes Mississippi State on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1503 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CHARLOTTE at HOUSTON
Play Over - Any team in a game involving two poor shooting teams (41.5-43.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
74-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 34.4 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.6 units )

NBA | PHOENIX at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) off an road win scoring 110 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days
93-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.1% | 40.3 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 4.0 units )

NBA | SACRAMENTO at BOSTON
Play Over - Any team vs. the 1rst half line in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's)
68-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 32.8 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | INDIANA ST at ILLINOIS ST
Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (ILLINOIS ST) a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after scoring 95 points or more
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

CBB | MINNESOTA at PURDUE
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 85 points or more
102-54 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 44.0 units )

CBB | WICHITA ST at DRAKE
Play On - Road favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (WICHITA ST) attempting 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season, in December games
49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOLD MEDAL CLUB
CFB Selection

252 Arizona -3

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Ben Burns

Personal Favorite: Mississippi St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* Arizona Wildcats

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Erin Rynning

20* Arizona Wildcats

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World's Worst Picker

TCU
Boise State
Mississippi State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech The Bulldogs (10-2 SU) head to the Orange Bowl tonight and face a Georgia Tech team that is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a SU winning record. Georgia Tech is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Yellow Jackets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+7). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/28)


Game 249-250: Mississippi vs. TCU (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 111.433; TCU 112.337
Dunkel Line: TCU by 1; 62
Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+3 1/2); Over


Game 251-252: Boise State vs. Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 101.458; Arizona 103.064
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+3 1/2); Under


Game 253-254: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 104.968; Georgia Tech 106.143
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1; 55
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+7); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks Georgetown at Xavier The Hoyas travel to Xavier (7-0 SU at home) tonight and come into the contest with a 2-6-1 ATS record in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Xavier is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Musketeers favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.


WEDNEDAY, DECEMBER 31
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 715-716: St. John's at Seton Hall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 68.502; Seton Hall 69.926
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (+1 1/2)


Game 717-718: Minnesota at Purdue (3:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 67.180; Purdue 61.273
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1)


Game 719-720: Penn State at Wisconsin (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 61.037; Wisconsin 75.849
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 15
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 18
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+18)


Game 721-722: Tulsa at Central Florida (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 60.806; Central Florida 57.306
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 6
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+6)


Game 723-724: Tulane at East Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:Tulane 52.490; East Carolina 56.982
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-2 1/2)


Game 725-726: Princeton at Wake Forest (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 51.370; Wake Forest 59.748
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 6
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-6)


Game 727-728: Temple at Connecticut (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 61.984; Connecticut 71.890
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 10
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7 1/2)


Game 729-730: Houston at Memphis (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 52.955; Memphis 68.817
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 16
Vegas Line: Memphis by 11
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-11)


Game 731-732: Vanderbilt at St. Louis (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 60.834; St. Louis 58.393
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+5)


Game 733-734: Butler at Villanova (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 67.199; Villanova 74.650
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 11
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+11)


Game 735-736: Bradley at Loyola-Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 49.433; Loyola-Chicago 63.337
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 14
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 9
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-9)


Game 737-738: Indiana at Nebraska (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 62.527; Nebraska 67.944
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 3
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-3)


Game 739-740: Northeastern at Richmond (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 57.607; Richmond 58.755
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 1
Vegas Line: Richmond by 4
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (+4)


Game 741-742: Indiana State at Illinois State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 51.544; Illinois State 59.863
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+10 1/2)


Game 743-744: Georgia at Kansas State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 62.139; Kansas State 68.025
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 6
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-4)


Game 745-746: Brown at Rhode Island (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 51.730; Rhode Island 69.220
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 12
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (-12)


Game 747-748: South Florida at SMU (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 51.161; SMU 70.559
Dunkel Line: SMU by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 17
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-17)


Game 749-750: Air Force at San Diego State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 52.550; San Diego State 69.972
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 13
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-13)


Game 751-752: George Mason at Oklahoma (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 56.334; Oklahoma 77.200
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 21
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-17)


Game 753-754: Marquette at DePaul (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 63.160; DePaul 54.122
Dunkel Line: Marqeutte by 9
Vegas Line: Marquette by 5
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-5)


Game 755-756: Missouri State at Southern Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 52.965; Southern Illinois 53.412
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 1
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+4 1/2)


Game 757-758: Wichita State at Drake (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 66.480; Drake 53.533
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 13
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 16
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+16)


Game 759-760: Cornell at Syracuse (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 52.352; Syracuse 67.919
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+17 1/2)


Game 761-762: Fresno State at New Mexico (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 52.472; New Mexico 59.564
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 7
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 10
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+10)


Game 763-764: Creighton at Providence (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 61.433; Providence 64.321
Dunkel Line: Providence by 3
Vegas Line: Providence by 6
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (+6)


Game 765-766: UNLV at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 57.457; Wyoming 63.162
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 1
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 6
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+6)


Game 767-768: Boise State at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 61.627; Colorado State 65.170
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+8)


Game 769-770: San Jose State at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 38.414; Utah State 53.365
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 15
Vegas Line: Utah State by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+19 1/2)


Game 771-772: Georgetown at Xavier (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 65.480; Xavier 71.871
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-4 1/2)


Game 773-774: East Tennessee State at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 51.462; Tennessee 66.834
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-10 1/2)


Game 775-776: Wofford at Duke (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.670; Duke 80.050
Dunkel Line: Duke by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 22
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-22)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks Toronto at Boston The Maple Leafs head to Boston tonight to face a Bruins team that is coming off a 5-2 win over Detroit and is 2-6 in its last 8 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Toronto is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155). Here are all of today's NHL picks.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Winnipeg (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.483; Winnipeg 12.887
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-105); Over


Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Florida (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.904; Florida 11.552
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A


Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Buffalo (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.509; Buffalo 11.661
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+180); Under


Game 57-58: Toronto at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.982; Boston 10.817
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Over


Game 59-60: Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.023; Pittsburgh 12.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-250); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-250); Over


Game 61-62: Minnesota at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.515; Columbus 10.104
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Under


Game 63-64: New Jersey at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.102; Detroit 12.533
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over


Game 65-66: San Jose at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.672; Anaheim 10.709
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+115); Under


Game 67-68: Arizona at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 11.507; Dallas 10.499
Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+150); Under


Game 69-70: Philadelphia at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.168; Colorado 11.772
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Over


Game 71-72: Edmonton at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.404; Calgary 10.515
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+185); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MATT RIVERS

Blank Check
Waive The Rating
Bowl Game of my Career

TCU-3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trev Rogers

Mississippi St -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman
4* Mississippi State -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INT Picks
CFB
2* Miss/TCU over 56 (12:30 pm EST)
2* Arizona -3 (4 pm EST)
1* Miss St. -6.5


CBB
2* St. John's +1 (12 pm EST)
1* Loyola-Chicago -9 (2 pm EST)
1* Minnesota +1 (3:15 pm EST)


NBA
1* Miami +4 (3 pm EST)
1* NY/Clippers Under 206.5 (6 pm EST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
Ole miss +3 (+100) 0.5*
Ole Miss/TCU over 55.5 (-105) 0.5*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
— Islanders won five of their last seven games. Winnipeg won four of last six.
— Rangers won eight of their last nine games. Florida won four of last six games.
— Lightning won last three games, allowing six goals.
— Bruins won three of their last four games.
— Columbus won nine of its last eleven games.
— Ducks won ten of their last thirteen games.
— Arizona won last three games, allowing four goals. Dallas Stars won six of last seven games.
— Calgary won last three games, allowing five goals.

Cold teams
— Sabres lost five of their last six games.
— Maple Leafs lost five of their last six games.
— Carolina lost nine of its last eleven games. Penguins lost last four games, scoring seven goals.
— Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
— Devils lost eight of their last ten games. Detroit lost seven of last nine.
— Sharks lost last three games, scoring four goals.
— Colorado lost eight of its last twelve games. Flyers lost 15 of their last 22 games.
— Oilers lost nine of their last ten games.

Series records
— Islanders won six of last nine games with Winnipeg.
— Rangers won four of last five games with Florida.
— Lightning are 8-5 in last thirteen games with Buffalo.
— Maple Leafs won three of last four games with Boston.
— Penguins won six of last eight games with Carolina.
— Blue Jackets won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
— Red Wings won four of last five games with New Jersey.
— Home side won eight of last nine Anaheim-San Jose games.
— Dallas Stars won four of last five games with Arizona.
— Home side won last eight Flyer-Avalanche games.
— Flames won six of last eight games with Edmonton.

Totals
— Seven of last nine Islander road games went over.
— Five of last seven Ranger road games stayed under.
— Last five Buffalo home games went over total.
— Five of last six Toronto road games stayed under; last four Boston games went over.
— Seven of last eight Penguin home games stayed under. Under is 13-1 in last 14 Carolina games.
— Four of last five Columbus home games went over.
— 10 of last 13 New Jersey road games stayed under.
— Under is 7-0-1 in last eight San Jose road games.
— Last five Arizona road games went over total.
— Four of last five Philly road games went over.
— Four of last five games in Saddledome stayed under.

Back-to-back
— Florida is 1-2 if it played night before.
— San Jose is 2-3 if it played night before.
— Oilers are 1-4 if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Bowls
Miss State

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Total – MISS ST. vs. GATECH 60 68.8 ♦ Over 60.4%

Side – 249 MISS vs TCU 3 1.6 ♦ 56.2%

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INSIDE THE PRESSBOX / PHIL STEELE

Opinion Selections
Arizona
Mississippi St.

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Greg Shaker
triple dime- GTech/MissSt. UNDER 61.5

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Larry Ness

31 club Ole Miss

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PAUL LEINER

100* CBB – Georgetown +5
100* CFB – TCU -3.5
100* CFB – Arizona -3

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MICHIGAN GODFATHER

1 unit

(NCAAF) #250 TCU -3.5 (-105)

(NCAAF) #254 Mississippi St. -6.5 (-105)

(CBB) #746 Rhode Island -12 ( -110)

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Freddy Wills

Arizona -3. 2.2*

Thursday
Fl State +8. 5.5*

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Spreitzer CBB Butler

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Dave Cokin:

249 Mississippi +3 or 3.5
251 Boise State +3

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Brad Wilton

100 dime Temple +7.5 (CBB)

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MY SYSTEM PICKS

Ole Miss +4 (3u)

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PhillyGodFather

TCU

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Bill Hilton - Gameday

3- TCU
2- Boise St
2- Georgia Tech

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Kelso No Ratings

ARIZONA
tcu
gt

Illinois St - Ncaab

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Wednesday Bowling

2* = Mississippi
2* = Georgia Tech

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James Jones

NCAAF-Mississippi University(+3.5)-107...(4*)
NCAAB-Nebraska University(-3.5)-114...(3*)
NBA-Oklahoma City Thunder(-7.5)-107...(1*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks Phoenix at Oklahoma City The Suns (18-15 SU) head to Oklahoma City tonight to face a Thunder team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST


Game 701-702: Sacramento at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.594; Boston 111.517
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 4; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Under


Game 703-704: Miami at Indiana (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 114.460; Indiana 123.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 9 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4); Over


Game 705-706: New York at LA Clippers (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.973; LA Clippers 120.989
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 201
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+13); Under


Game 707-708: Milwaukee at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 119.649; Cleveland 119.519
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6 1/2); Over


Game 709-710: New Orleans at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.427; San Antonio 123.302
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 204
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over


Game 711-712: Charlotte at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 113.021; Houston 127.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 14 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 12; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-12); Under


Game 713-714: Phoenix at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 120.325; Oklahoma City 124.949
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph
Trophy Play TCU -3

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kelso w/ratings

100 arizona
15 tcu
10 gt

50 illinois st - ncaab

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We picked up a few units yesterday with our 4 unit pick on Notre Dame covering and even winning outright as 8 point dogs. Maryland couldn't cover the 14 points for us in the late game, but another profitable day with our bowl picks.
Now things get really fun as we are on New Years Eve bowls and then day bowls tomorrow. This email will have today's picks (including a 4 unit play), and then I will probably send out tomorrow's picks later today. Happy New Years!
4 UNIT = Boise State @ Arizona - BOISE STATE +3 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.81 units)
2 UNIT = Mississippi @ TCU - MISSISSIPPI +3.5 (-105) *EARLY
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)
2 UNIT = Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State - MISSISSIPPI ST -6.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Locksmith Customer Service



Dec 30 at 9:32 PM
Happy New Year To All!!! Enjoy the Plays!!


NCAAB:
Duke -22.5 -110 1* (3:00 Eastern)

NCAAF:

Ole Miss +3 -110 1* (12:30 Eastern)

Boise State +3 -110 3* (4:00 Eastern)

Mississippi State -7 -110 3* (8:00 Eastern)

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Northcoast

4* Arizona -3/ (going to -2.5) Boise St 4 pm ESPN (Fiesta)
3* UNDER 61.5 ORANGE BOWL 8pm ESPN (Ga Tech/Miss St)
Bowl Top Opinion:
Mississippi +3.5/+4 TCU - 12:30 pm Espn (Chick-Fil-A)
Reg Opinion:
Marquee SINGLE - UNDER 56 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (Mississippi/TCU) 12:30 pm
Had to pickem:
Marquee SINGLE - UNDER 68 Fiesta Bowl (Boise St/Arizona) 4 pm
Mississippi St -6 Georgia Tech - 8 pm Espn (Orange)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Lock Club
Football
4* Boise +3.5
on the 1st
4* Baylor -2.5
4* FSU +8.5


ATS Lock Club B-Ball
5* UNLV +6
4* Loyola-Chic -9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob :
Strong Opinion – Mississippi (+3 ½) 31 Tcu 28

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 249 Over/Under 56.5

There is some question as to how excited TCU is to be playing in any bowl that is not a part of the national playoff, as the Horned Frogs were certainly disappointed to drop from #3 to #6 in the final playoff rankings. I like Ole’ Miss here regardless of whether TCU was properly motivated during preparations for this game, as taking great defensive teams like Mississippi as an underdog in a bowl game has paid dividends over the years. Teams that have allowed less than 15 points per game (less than 14.5 specifically) are 60-36 ATS as underdogs in bowl games, including 45-22 ATS if they’re facing a team with a winning pointspread record. A 40-12 ATS subset of that angle actually applies to this game and my math model favors Ole’ Miss by 1 point, so there is no question that the Rebels are the right side in this game.

Mississippi also made a run at the national playoffs but they enter this game on a high after beating rival Mississippi State and they had no illusions of making the playoffs after their second loss and are reportedly excited to be playing such a highly ranked team as TCU. Ole’ Miss is a very good team that ranked 3rd in my compensated yards per play differential (TCU is 7th), as the Rebels rate at 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Bo Wallace in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while their stingy defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppl against an average team). That defense matches up pretty evenly with a very potent TCU attack that has been 1.5 yppl better than average this season (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). TCU is very good running the ball and throwing the ball and Ole’ Miss is very good defending the run and defending the pass, so this should be interesting to watch. TCU has faced only one elite defense (Texas) and they were limited to a modest 5.7 yards per play in that game while averaging 6.05 yppl against 4 defenses that are in the good but not great category (Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas State). Overall, TCU’s offense was 1.2 yppl better than average against those 5 good defensive units that they faced, so they weren’t quite as good when challenged. Mississippi’s schedule was full of good offensive teams and only Auburn gave them trouble (Auburn has a tendency to play better against better defenses) while the Rebels held Alabama, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State to a combined 5.2 yppl. Overall, Ole’ Miss was 1.4 yppl better than average against those elite offensive teams, which was the same as their overall rating. The injury to leading receiver WR Laquon Treadwell is a non-factor, as Treadwell’s 8.4 yards per pass intended for him is well below the 9.8 yards per target that the next 4 wide receivers combine to average and the Ole’ Miss pass attack had a higher rating in the two games since Treadwell’s injury (although I made no adjustment at all). The math model projects 434 yards at 5.7 yppl for TCU in this game and it would be 0.3 yppl lower if they play at the level they’ve played against other good defensive teams, although there wasn’t strong enough statistical evidenced for me to make that adjustment in the math model.

While the TCU offense and Ole’ Miss defense are evenly matched the Rebels good attack (+1.1 yppl) has an edge over a TCU defense that’s 0.8 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl). Like their offense, TCU’s defense was also relatively worse against good teams, as the Horned Frogs faced 5 good offensive teams (Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Kansas State) and they allowed 6.3 yppl in those games, which is only 0.4 yppl better than what those offensive units would combine to average against an average defensive team – and is 0.4 yppl worse than their overall rating. TCU held their 6 mediocre or worse than average offensive opponents to just 9.8 points per game but they allowed 34.2 points to the 5 better than average offensive teams they faced. The correlation coefficient between the yards per pass play that TCU allowed as a function of the level of the opposing pass offense is incredibly strong (r-squared of 0.92) and that equation would project TCU’s defense to be 0.4 yards per pass and 0.2 yppl worse than their overall defensive rating. There was enough evidence to make that adjustment and the math projects 460 yards at 6.2 yppl for Mississippi in this game.

Overall the Rebels have a solid advantage from the line of scrimmage of 26 yards and 0.5 yppl but TCU has a 1.5 points edge in special teams and is projected to have a small edge in turnovers as well. Add it all up and I get Mississippi by 1 points with a total of 62 points. I’ve predicted a slightly lower total since this game applies to a 24-8 under situation that goes under one of the teams has scored 170 points or more over their previous 4 games, which TCU did. The time off tends to cool down those hot offenses, which leads to the under and in this case hopefully strengthens are chances with Ole’ Miss. I’ll consider Mississippi a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and a lean at less than +3 and I have no opinion on the total.
**Boise State (+4) 35 Arizona 29

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 69.5

Arizona is playing this game in their home state but the Wildcats don’t have any other advantages and I’m not sure the proximity to home will be that much of an advantage given how Boise State’s fans tend to travel well for bowl games. The Broncos and their fans are excited about being the non-power conference team to get invited to a major bowl and I expect Boise to win this game straight up against an overrated Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. Arizona also beat Oregon in Eugene but that impressive win was one of just 2 really impressive games that the Wildcats played this season (the other being a 42-10 win at Utah). The rest of the year was pretty mediocre and the Cats’ 10-3 record is due in large part to their good fortune in close games. The Wildcats are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less and they are more like an 8-5 or 7-6 team than a 10-3 team. That mediocrity shows in their stats, as Arizona only outgained their opponents by 7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. Arizona’s schedule was only 4.9 points tougher than an average FBS team and the Wildcats are only 5.4 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and only 7 points better than average overall (that includes special teams and projected turnovers). That rating is a few points lower than their rating based purely on points because their point margin was influenced by some turnover luck (+3 in defensive touchdowns off turnovers) and a Hail Mary pass to beat Cal (which I don’t include in my stats because I consider Hail Mary passes random).

Boise State is better than Arizona on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. The Broncos averaged 501 total yards and 6.7 yards per play this season while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Broncos are well balanced with Jay Ajayi (1689 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns) leading a ground attack that averages 237 yards and 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) while quarterback Grant Hedrick takes care of the aerial attack with 71% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The passing game is even better now that WR Dallas Burroughs no longer gets snaps and sophomore Thomas Sperbeck is a featured receiver. Burroughs averaged just 4.3 yards on the 28 passes directed at him in the first half of the season and a mid-season injury to senior WR Matt Miller was a blessing in disguise, as it put Sperbeck in the lineup. Sperbeck leads the Broncos in receiving yards despite not playing the first 4 games of the season and his 12.0 yards per pass thrown to him also leads the team. Boise’s pass attack has been 0.2 yppp better since week 5 when Sperbeck starting playing and Boise State’s offense currently rates at 1.0 yppl better than average, which gives the Broncos a big advantage over an Arizona defense that is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 513 yards at 6.4 yppl for Boise State in this game. Boise State has averaged 39.8 points per game on an average of 501 yards and they’re projected to score 35 points in this game.

Arizona’s offense tallies a lot of yards because they run a lot of plays but the Wildcats are just 0.1 yppl better than average, averaging a modest 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. I decided not to include the last two games since an injured foot hindered the mobility of quarterback Anu Solomon, which made him more prone to getting sacked (8 sacks the last two games) and kept him from running effectively. Solomon should be pretty close to 100% for this game but the Wildcats’ are still just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively if I exclude those final two games. Boise State’s defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl) but that average was skewed by the 627 yards at 9.7 yppl in their game against the New Mexico triple-option. My model adjusts for outliers and Boise’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after that adjustment. Boise also struggled defending the run against the Air Force option and while the Broncos were just barely better than average defending the run overall they were very good against the run when not facing a team that runs the triple-option. In those 11 games the Broncos allowed just 4.2 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team. Boise allowed less than 4.0 yprp in 7 of 11 games against non-option teams so their run defense is actually very good despite their overall mediocre numbers that were skewed by their two games against option offenses. That math projects 414 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona in this game, which equates to about 29 points after factoring in the Wildcats’ 2.3 points advantage in special teams (projected turnovers are even).

Boise State has a projected advantage of 99 total yards at 0.9 yards per play and the Broncos appear to be the better team. I didn’t give any points to Arizona for playing in their home state since there isn’t any compelling evidence that playing in your home state (and not your actual home stadium) is an advantage. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points. The math also projects just 63 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.
Mississippi State (-7) 38 Georgia Tech 28

Wed Dec-31-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 254 Over/Under 61.5

Georgia Tech enters this game on a 6 game spread winning streak but that actually is reason to not like the Yellow Jackets here, since teams that are on a 5 game or more covering run are just 11-22-1 ATS in bowl games as underdogs, including 2-11-1 ATS if their opponent lost to the spread in the previous game. Mississippi State lost their final regular season game to rival Ole’ Miss, which also knocked them out of the National Championship playoffs, so this game could be a considered a disappointment for the Bulldogs and any lack of focus while preparing for the option attack could lead to some issues on game day. However, Mississippi State actually applies to a 23-1-2 ATS bowl favorite off a loss angle which puts into question whether this is a letdown game for the Bulldogs.

Georgia Tech’s option is tough to stop, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged 37 points on 470 yards at 6.7 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppl to an average team). Mississippi’s defense is nothing special, as the Bulldogs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with a run defense that’s 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average. That’s only 0.2 yprp better than the average rating of the teams that the Yellow Jackets faced this season so I expect them to run the ball pretty well in this game. I did adjust the pass offense downwards for the injury to top WR DeAndre Smelter, who averaged 11.5 yards for every pass targeted at him. The rest of the wide receivers combined to average 7.6 yards per target so Smelter should be missed – although Georgia Tech threw the ball fine without him against Florida State. That math projects 433 yards at 6.2 yards per play for Georgia Tech in this game.

Mississippi State’s offense is a well-balanced and potent attack that can beat an opponent by running the ball (255 yards at 5.8 yards per rushing play) or throwing the ball (254 yards per game at 7.7 yards per pass play). Starting quarterback Dak Prescott leads the charge with his running and his passing (7.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Bulldogs are 1.5 yards per play better than average when he’s in the game (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team). I don’t see how a sub-par Georgia Tech defense can stop that attack from moving the ball at will against them. The Yellow Jackets have allowed 5.8 yards per rushing play, 6.9 yards per pass play and 6.4 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Mississippi State has had their way offensively against mediocre or bad defensive teams, scoring 49 points against Southern Miss, 47 points against UAB, 35 points against South Alabama, 48 points against Texas A&M, 45 points against Kentucky, and 51 points against Vanderbilt. That’s an average of 46 points per game. Mississippi State probably won’t score that many points in this game since they’ll have fewer possessions due to Georgia Tech’s clock eating offense but my math model projects 508 yards at 7.7 yppl and 38.8 points for the Bulldogs.

Overall the math favors Mississippi State by 10 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The total is predicted to be higher than expected because it assumes that the teams will score and allow points at efficiencies corresponding to their overall level of offense and defense. However, while Mississippi State allowed a sub-par 418 yards on defense the Bulldogs only gave up 19.7 points per game because they were really good when teams got close to the goal line, allowing just 3.3 points per red zone opportunity. That’s below even the most extreme part of the normal range and a lot of that is simply variance. I actually don’t see the Bulldogs having that much success when Georgia Tech’s option attack gets near the goal line, as the Yellow Jackets were on the high end of the offensive points per red zone spectrum at 5.1 points per RZ. I haven’t studied it but I also think how a team performs in red zone defense overall has little bearing on the red zone defense against an option team since the defense you play near the goal line against an option team isn’t really any different than the defense you’d play against them in the middle of the field. I’ll assume normal red zone scoring from both teams and I’ll lean Over the total and I’ll lean with Mississippi State at -7 points or less.
Auburn (-6 ½) 33 Wisconsin 26

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 256 Over/Under 63.5

Another head coach has left Wisconsin and once again it is athletic director and former head coach Barry Alvarez that will lead the team through the bowl season. Alvarez did the same thing at the end of the 2012 season after Bret Bielema left for Arkansas and the Badgers played reasonably well in a 14-20 loss as a 5 ½ point dog to Stanford in the Rose Bowl. But, how do the Badgers rebound from the 0-59 beating they were giving by Ohio State, especially when they lost their head coach shortly afterwards? Mediocre teams can often bounce back from a bad beating at the end of the regular season but better teams have struggled with a loss of swagger after a resounding beat down. In fact, bowl teams with 4 or fewer losses on the season are just 19-40-2 ATS if lost their previous game by 24 points or more, including 13-37-2 ATS they lost to a conference opponent (0-9-1 ATS getting less than 10 points in their bowl after losing by 24 or more in their conference championship game). I do have a 7-30 ATS situation that applies to Auburn, so both teams are in bad situations. With that being the case let’s take a look at the numbers.

Auburn’s offense was once again among the best in the nation, averaging 6.8 yards per play against a schedule that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team, although that unit would be worse if star WR D’Haquille Williams does not play. Williams is listed as questionable with an undisclosed illness and his 10.7 yards per pass thrown to him would be tough to replace. In fact, Williams missed 3 games late in the season (weeks 11 through 13) and the Auburn pass attack averaged a modest 6.4 yards per pass play, which is well below the 8.3 yppp that they averaged for the season. It wasn’t the competition that contributed to the drop, as the teams they faced in those 3 weeks were a bit worse than the average pass defenses that the Tigers faced over the course of the season. Williams isn’t accountable for a 1.9 yppp drop but replacing his numbers with the numbers from the rest of the receivers would results in an expected decrease of 0.7 yppp, which is worth 1.8 points in the case of Auburn. For now I’ll assume that Williams is out and the math projects the Tigers with 422 yards at 6.4 yppl against a normally very good Wisconsin defense that was 0.8 yppl better than average for the season despite the 10.0 yards per play they allowed to Ohio State.

Wisconsin’s offense is all about RB Melvin Gordon, who has run for 2336 yards at 7.6 ypr and 26 touchdowns. Williams also had a bad game against Ohio State and perhaps the absence of their starting center had something to do with that. However, one offensive lineman is not responsible for a team that averages 7.4 yards per rushing play to suddenly average only 3.0 yprp, as the Badgers did against the Buckeyes, and I’ll chalk it up to a bad day. Wisconsin C Dan Voltz is questionable for this game but reports are that he’ll probably play. The Badgers are 1.4 yards per play better than average offensively and are projected to gain 407 yards at 6.2 yppl against an Auburn defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (and 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average).

The projected yards are pretty close but Auburn has an advantage in projected turnovers that is worth about 1.8 points and the Tigers are significantly better in special teams. Overall the math favors Auburn by 6.5 points (with a total of 58.9 points) if Williams doesn’t play and by 8.3 points (and 60.5 total points) if Williams is 100%. I’ll call for a 7 point win and I have no opinion on the side and I’ll lean Under 63 points or higher.
*UNDER (71 ½) - Michigan State (+2 ½) 33 Baylor 30

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 257 Over/Under 72.0

Baylor was campaigning hard to get a spot in the playoffs and even hired a PR firm to make their case. However, Ohio State’s romp over Wisconsin trumped Baylor’s solid win over Kansas State and the Bears are left with disappointment and potentially may not have been fully motivated while preparing for this game. Michigan State, meanwhile, is excited about playing a highly ranked Baylor team and the Spartans match up pretty well given their good defense and a quarterback that can exploit Baylor’s weakness in the secondary.

Michigan State is known as being a good defensive team but the Spartans are very good offensively this season, averaging 6.8 yards per play when starting quarterback Connor Cook is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). The Spartans run the ball very well (242 yards at 5.6 yards per rushing play) and Cook has one of the highest compensated pass efficiency ratings in the nation with 8.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Baylor should defend the run pretty well (the Bears are 1.0 yprp better than average against the run) but Baylor’s starting defense has allowed an average of 6.9 yards per pass play in their last 10 games (I excluded their first two games against an impotent SMU offense and against FCS teams Northwestern State) to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Baylor dominated weaker passing teams Iowa State and Texas and they had the fortune of playing Oklahoma with big play WR Shepard out. However, the Bears mostly had problems with good quarterbacks and allowed 7.7 yards per pass play or more in 5 of their last 6 games and allowed 9.0 yppp or more in each of their final 3 games. My math model projects Cook to average 8.9 yppp in this game and the fact that the rushing attack isn’t likely to be as successful as usual (4.5 yprp predicted) should mean a few more pass plays than normal from Cook, which is a positive. That likelihood is built into the model, which projects 470 yards at 6.5 yppl for Michigan State in this game.

While I fully expect Michigan State to move the ball well through the air the matchup between a good Baylor pass attack and a good Michigan State pass defense is less predictable. Bryce Petty struggled in the opener against SMU but I tossed that game out (just as I tossed out the Bears’ defensive effort in that game) and Petty’s numbers from week 3 on were stellar, as he threw for 8.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Petty will be up against a Michigan State pass defense that is the second best that they’ve seen this season (MSU allowed 4.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The best pass defense that Baylor faced was Texas and Petty completed only 7 of 22 passes and averaged just 3.7 yppp in that game. The next best pass defense that Petty faced was West Virginia and he also struggled in that game (16 of 36 for 4.8 yppp). Petty did play well in some games against good pass defenses but not against the best two that he faced and overall there was a strong tendency to play relatively worse against better defensive teams and relatively better against bad defensive teams (like the 12.2 yppp he averaged against Buffalo). The linear equation to predict Petty’s compensated yppp as a function of the opposing pass defense has a slope of 1.93, which means he was 1.93 yppp better/worse for every yard worse/better than average in pass defense his opponent was. A quarterback that plays at the same relative level regardless of opposition would have a slope of 1 and most quarterbacks are near that slope, so there is strong evidence that Petty’s tendency to play relatively worse against better defensive teams is more than just variance. Inserting Michigan State’s defensive pass rating into that equation would predict Petty to average 6.64 yppp in this game, which is 0.50 yppp worse than the math projects. However, Michigan State’s defense has the same issue that Petty has, as the Spartans were relatively worse against better passing teams, as they allowed 9.7 yppp to Oregon and Ohio State. The Spartans also had some good games against good quarterbacks but the linear equation projecting their pass defense as a function of the opposing quarterback projects the Spartans to allow 7.62 yppp to a quarterback with Petty’s overall rating, which is 0.48 yppp higher than the math model prediction. So, Petty could be predicted to be anywhere from 6.6 yppp to 7.6 yppp in this game and ultimately I’ll stick with the math model prediction of 7.1 yppp – although there is obviously a lot of variance in that prediction. Overall Baylor is projected to gain 440 yards at 5.9 yppl against Michigan State’s defense.

Michigan State has the overall edge from a yards per play perspective, which isn’t surprising given that they’re offense rates slightly higher than Baylor’s offense (+1.3 yppl to +1.2 yppl) and the Spartans have a much better defense, and the math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points (with a total of 62 ½ points). There is a lot of variance in that prediction, however, given how inconsistent these teams have been against better competition and my alternate model favors Baylor by 1 ½ points, which represents the biggest difference in the prediction of the two models of any bowl game this season. Even the model that favors Baylor still favors Michigan State to cover, however, and Baylor’s level of enthusiasm for this game is certainly in question. I like Michigan State here but if the line is less than +3 points then the money line would be a better option, especially given the higher than normal variance associated with these two teams (the higher the variance the more likely an upset will occur, or a blowout). I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at either +3 or more or on the money line if the line you’re getting is less than +3.

The Under appears to be the better play here, as my model predicts far fewer plays than other models might. Most models would probably look at Michigan State’s total plays per game (134.7) and Baylor’s total plays per game (160.2 in the 10 games I’m using) and add those and subtract the league average of 140.2 total plays in regulation. That would give you 154.7 total points. However, Baylor faced a lot of other up-tempo teams that combine to average 6.5 more total plays from scrimmage than average (and Michigan State’s opponents combine to average 1.1 fewer total plays from scrimmage). A simple compensation based on those numbers would get the predicted plays down to 149.3 plays (154.7 – 6.5 + 1.1). My model predicts just 146.8 total plays, as my model takes into account Michigan State’s average of 35.24 minutes of time of possession. Baylor averages 29.64 minutes of TOP per game and they run their offense at a fast pace when they have the ball. However, the Bears are projected to have the ball just 24.36 minutes in this game while the clock eating slow paced Spartans have it for 35.64 minutes. Baylor is expected to have the ball for 5.28 fewer minutes than their average and the difference between their average plays per minute and Michigan State’s average plays per minute in those 5.28 minutes is pretty significant and is why my model projects fewer plays than most other models probably do. I am concerned about the high variance in the predicted passing numbers for each quarterback, which could lead to higher scoring, but if I assume Petty will average at the high end of the spectrum and that Baylor’s defense will continue to struggle against good quarterbacks as they did for the second half of the season (which would project Cook at 10.2 yppp in this game) I still only get 68 total points if each team plays at their normal pace on offense and Michigan State possesses the ball for around 35 minutes as they normally do. So, even in an extreme case where both quarterbacks play better than expected and the teams combine for 6.6 yards per play I still have the total going under 70 points.

The other reason the total is high is because a points based model would predict a game over 70 points but both of these teams had combined red zone efficiencies that were really high and contributed to each team’s higher than expected total points averages. Baylor’s offensive points per red zone opportunity was 5.2 points per RZ, which is what a team with their overall offensive rating should average. However, Baylor’s defense allows 5.2 points per RZ, which is 0.6 points higher than projected based on their overall defensive stats. Michigan State, meanwhile, is also projected to be at 5.2 points per RZ on offense but the Spartans are at 5.4 points per RZ and their defense, which is really good overall, has allowed teams to average 5.4 points per RZ opportunity, which is extremely high for a defense that is as good as their defense is overall (they should allow 4.4 points per RZ). The red zone variance of these two teams accounts for a total of 5.0 points per game, which has also created some value on the under. I also get a total of 71 ½ points if the teams combine for 154 plays and continue to have extremely high red zone scoring averages but I don’t see that many plays being run and the red zone scoring averages should regress towards what is expected. I can still envision both quarterbacks having more success than my model predicts, so I won’t make this as big a play as the math would suggest. I’ll go UNDER 69 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet.
Missouri (-5) 24 Minnesota 20

Thu Jan-01-2015 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 259 Over/Under 47.5

There isn’t much exciting or interesting to say about this game so I’ll keep it short. Missouri somehow got to the SEC Championship game for a 2nd straight year with a mediocre offense that averaged only 5.4 yards per play. That attack struggled in the middle of the season when injuries hit their very thin corps of wide receivers. And, when I say thin I really mean thin. Missouri has 3 wide receivers that see the field, as Sasser, Hunt, and White combined for 229 targets while the rest of the wide receivers combined for just 35 passes thrown to them all season, and most of those were when either Hunt or White were out with injury. Hunt and White both missed the week 5 South Carolina game and quarterback Maty Mauk averaged only 2.9 yards per pass play in that game against a weak South Carolina pass defense. White missed the next game against Georgia in which Mauk averaged only 3.0 yppp and he missed week 10 against Kentucky (4.2 yppp for Mauk). Normally, having one receiver out wouldn’t matter much, especially given that White averaged a mediocre 8.0 yards per target, but the backups combine to average a pathetic 3.1 yards per target. The Missouri game, in which Hunt was also out was predictably bad for Mauk, as Hunt leads the team at 10.4 yards per target and those ill-equipped backups were filling the void of two starters. The other receivers don’t play unless one of the top 3 are out, and Mauk’s yards per pass play rating would go up 0.3 yppp if Hunt and White played every game. Even with that adjustment Missouri’s mediocre attack is still projected to gain just 357 yards at 5.5 yppl in this game against a solid Minnesota defense that has allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team.

Minnesota’s offense is 0.1 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Mitch Leidner in the game (he missed week 4 against San Jose State), averaging 5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That attack isn’t good enough to do much damage against a very good Missouri defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season despite facing teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Gophers are expected to gain just 304 yards at 4.6 yppl and their great special teams doesn’t give them the big advantage that is does against most teams, as Missouri also has very good special teams (although Minnesota is better in that regard). Overall the math favors Missouri by just 4 points with a total of 43 points and I’ll lean Under 47 points and I have no opinion on the side

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You NCAA Bowls Selections for Wednesday, December 31st
2014 College Bowls Scoreboard-Scorcher of the Year!!!!!
Boise State/Arizona over 67 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Thursday's Early Bowl Report Free of Charge!!!

NCAA Bowls Best Bets
Mississippi/TCU over 56
Georgia Tech/Mississippi State under 61 1/2

December's Eastern Conference Day-Game Total of the Month!!!!!
Miami/Indiana under 188 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Thursday's NBA Report Free of Charge!!!

NBA Best Bets
New York/LA Clippers under 205 1/2
Milwaukee/Cleveland over 202
Charlotte/Houston under 198
Phoenix/Oklahoma City over 212

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LT LOCK

Ole Miss +3-
Boise St. +3
Miss St. -6

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SB Professor Original NBA Picks - EARLY GAMES

System Play:
Indiana -4

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Executive 600 Mississippi

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Executive

600% bowl goy - ole miss
300% - miss st

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Chuck Luck
Tcu, Boise, Mississippi State

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Harry Bondi
3 Ole Miss

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Alleghenies Analysis

6u boise st
GOY ole miss

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Insider Sports Report


4* Arizona -3 over Boise St. (NCAAF)
Range: -1.5 to -5.5


3* Marquette -5 over DePaul (NCAAB)
Range: -3.5 to -7.5


3* Georgia Tech +6.5 over Mississippi St. (NCAAF)
Range: +8.5 to +4.5

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Elite Sports Picks


Georgia Tech +6.5 over Mississippi St. (NCAAF)

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National Sports Service


4* Tennessee -10.5 over E. Tennessee St. (NCAAB)


3* Mississippi +3.5 over T.C.U. (NCAAF)


3* Georgia Tech/Mississippi St. OVER 61 (NCAAF)

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Power Play Wins

Power Play Of The Day

NCAAB: Richmond -3.5

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5 Unit Total Play · Under [253] Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. [254] Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Z Play Wed Dec 31st, 2014 8:00pm EST

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Fat jack

Mississippi
Boise
Boise over

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MADDUX SPORTS

Suns/Thunder – Over 212

CBB
Princeton +6
St. Louis +5
Bradley +9
Brown +12

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Nelly

Georgia Tech / Mississippi St. Over 61

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TEDDY COVERS (CBB)

10* Providence -5

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Arlon Sports

CBB
Bradley+7.5
Creighton+5.5
UNLV+7

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Betting First look with Marco D’Angelo

Georgia+2.5

winning by 3 to 5pts

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Totals 4 You NBA Selections

December’s Eastern Conference Day-Game Total of the Month!!!!!
Miami/Indiana – Under 188 1/2

NBA Best Bets
New York/LA Clippers – Under 205 1/2
Milwaukee/Cleveland – Over 202
Charlotte/Houston – Under 198
Phoenix/Oklahoma City – Over 212



Totals 4 You NCAA Bowls Selections

2014 College Bowls Scoreboard-Scorcher of the Year!!!!!
Boise State/Arizona – Over 67 1/2

NCAA Bowls Best Bets
Mississippi/TCU – Over 56
Georgia Tech/Mississippi State – Under 61 1/2



Winning Angle Football

Play Mississippi +3.5 over TCU (NCAA)
12:30 PM EST

Mississippi has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 bowl games and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing in a dome stadium. Mississippi has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 non-conference games and they are only allowing an average of 13 points a game on defense this season.

Play Boise State +3 over Arizona (NCAA)
4:00 PM EST

Boise State has covered the spread in 37 of the last 55 games coming off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better and they have covered the spread in 67 of the last 105 games coming off three or more wins. Boise State has covered the spread in 47 of the last 77 non-conference games and they are averaging 47 points on offense in their last three games.

Play Georgia Tech +7 over Mississippi State (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST

Georgia Tech has covered the spread in six consecutive games and they have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing as an underdog. Georgia Tech has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing with two weeks or more of rest and they are averaging 37 points a game on offense this season.



Winning Angle

NCAA BASKETBALL

Play Villanova -10.5 over Butler (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Villanova has covered the spread in 27 of the last 38 games when playing as a favorite and they have covered the spread in 15 of the last 21 home games. Villanova has covered the spread in 10 of the last 12 games when playing on a Wednesday and they are only allowing an average of 59 points a game this season.

Play Wisconsin -18 over Penn State (NCAA TOP PLAY)

Wisconsin has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more and they have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games coming off a home win. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 66 of the last 113 games when playing in the month of December and they are only allowing an average of 52 points a game this season.

Play Wyoming -6 over UNLV (NCAA TOP PLAY)

UNLV has lost 25 of the last 40 games against the spread coming off a game when playing as a favorite and they have lost 23 of the last 39 games against the spread vs. conference opponents. UNLV has lost 19 of the last 32 games against the spread after having won five or six of the last seven games and they are only averaging 58 points in road games this season.

================================================== =====

NBA BASKETBALL

Play Los Angeles Clippers -13 over New York (NBA TOP PLAY)

New York has lost 42 of the last 71 games against the spread when playing as an underdog and they have lost 40 of the last 62 games against the spread when playing in the 1st half of the season. New York has lost 11 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a road loss in their last game and they are allowing an average of 111 points in their last five games.

============================================

NHL HOCKEY

Play NY Islanders +110 over Winnipeg (NHL TOP PLAY)
Play Minnesota +115 over Columbus



XpertPicks

TOP FOOTBALL PLAY

Play Boise State +3 over Arizona—-RISK 35% OF YOUR BANKROLL
4:00 PM EST

Boise State has won 16 of the last 20 games coming off a game with one or less turnovers and they have won 6 of the last 7 games when playing with two weeks or more of rest. Boise State has won 25 of the last 30 games when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points and they have won 61 of the last 70 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.

==================================================

BONUS FOOTBALL PLAYS

Play Mississippi +3.5 over TCU—-RISK 15% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Play Georgia Tech +6.5 over Mississippi State—RISK 15% OF YOUR BANKROLL



BeatYourBookie

100* Play Mississippi +3.5 over TCU (Top NCAA Play)

Mississippi is 9-1 ATS when playing in a bowl game
Mississippi is 11-3 ATS in non-conference games

100* Play Boise State +3 over Arizona (Top NCAA Play)

Boise State is 67-38 ATS coming off three or more wins
Boise State is 47-30 ATS in non-conference games

100* Play Georgia Tech +7 over Mississippi State (Top NCAA Play)

Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS over the last six games
Georgia Tech is 5-1 ATS when playing as an underdog



BeatYourBookie

NCAA BASKETBALL

50* Play Villanova -10.5 over Butler (PLAY OF THE DAY)

Villanova is 27-11 ATS when playing as a favorite
Villanova is 10-2 ATS when playing on a Wednesday

10* Play Wisconsin -18 over Penn State (TOP NCAA PLAY)
10* Play San Diego State -13 over Air Force (TOP NCAA PLAY)

——————————————————————–

NBA BASKETBALL

10* Play Los Angeles Clippers -13 over New York (TOP NBA PLAY)
10* Play Oklahoma City -7.5 over Phoenix

————————————————————————————————-

NHL HOCKEY

10* Play Calgary -210 over Edmonton (TOP NHL PLAY)
10* Play Detroit -200 over New Jersey (TOP NBA PLAY)



FantasySportsGametime

FOOTBALL

5000* Play Mississippi +3.5 over TCU (TOP NCAA PLAY)

TCU has lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing as a neutral field favorite and they have lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games.

============================================

50* Play Boise State +3 over Arizona (BONUS NCAA PLAY)
50* Play Georgia Tech +7 over Mississippi State (BONUS NCAA PLAY)



NFLBetting Picks / Kevin

4 UNIT = Boise State @ Arizona – BOISE STATE +3 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 4.00 units to win 3.81 units)

2 UNIT = Mississippi @ TCU – MISSISSIPPI +3.5 (-105) *EARLY
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.91 units)

2 UNIT = Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State – MISSISSIPPI ST -6.5 (-102)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
— Pacers are 3-2 SU in last five games, 7-1 vs spread in last eight (3-3-1 HF).
— Bucks are 5-4 SU in last nine games, 7-1-1 vs spread (12-4 AU).
— Pelicans are 5-3 SU in last eight games, 10-3 vs spread in last 13 (6-3 last nine AU).
— Suns won/covered six of last seven games (4-5 AU).

Cold Teams
— Celtics lost last four games (5-4 HF). Sacramento lost eight of its last ten games (7-4 AU).
— Miami lost five of its last seven games (5-6 AU).
— Clippers are 5-6 in last 11 games, 0-5 vs spread in game following the five wins (1-5 last six HF). Knicks lost eight in row, 18 of last 19 games (4-1 last five AU).
— Cleveland lost three of last four games (1-5 last six HF).
— Spurs lost six of their last eight games (6-9 HF).
— Charlotte lost last three games, all by 8+ points (5-4-2 AU). Rockets lost four of last six games (4-7 last 11 HF).
— Thunder are 3-4 in last seven games (2-5 vs spread, 6-2 last eight HF).

Series Records
— Kings lost last five visits to Boston by 19-8-24-18-10 points.
— Heat lost six of last seven visits to Indiana.
— Clippers won four of last five games with New York.
— Cavaliers won five of last seven games with Milwaukee.
— Pelicans are 2-0 vs Spurs this year, after losing 18 of previous 21 with San Antonio.
— Rockets won their last seven games with Charlotte.
— Thunder won 12 of their last 14 games with Phoenix.

Totals
— Nine of last twelve Boston games stayed under total.
— Eight of last ten Miami games stayed under the total.
— 12 of last 15 New York road games went over.
— Four of last five Cleveland home games stayed under.
— Last eight San Antonio home games went over total.
— Seven of last nine Houston games went over total.
— Under is 9-2-2 in Oklahoma City home games.

Back-to-Backs
— Cleveland is 4-4 vs spread if it played night before, 1-2 at home.
— Pelicans are 8-0 vs spread if they played night before; Spurs are 5-4 if they played night before, but 3-0 at home.
— Phoenix is 2-4 vs spread if it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James Sports

Mississippi +3.5
Boise St +3
Miss St -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITTVIPER

ROT# 252 – 4:00pm – Arizona ML (-160)

Wednesday CBK
ROT# 738 – 5:30pm – Nebraska -4 (-110)

Wednesday NHL
ROT# 57 – 7:05pm – Toronto Maple Leafs +160
ROT# 57 – 7:05pm – Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-185)
ROT# 62 – 7:05pm – Columbus Blue Jackets -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasButcher - NBA

Miami Heat +4

The Heat are off two straight losses, after beating the Cavs and old mate Lebron James on their home-court on X-Mas day. Clearly that was a big ‘effort’ game for Miami. Today, I expect another one like it. Danny Granger, who spent his previous 9 years with the Pacers (moved to LAC late last season but played in 29 games with IND prior to that), will be coming back ‘home’ for the first time. He didn’t leave on bad terms of course, nor did he spurn the organization – he was simply traded. Some might argue that trading away Granger really messed up Indy’s unity and camaraderie, as you might remember that the Pacers were NOT the same dominant team in the 2nd half of last year. Regardless, players who’ve spent a long time with a particular organization and then have to face them for the first time, tend to play with a little ‘extra’ motivation. That typically rubs off on their teammates as well. No, I don’t have the ‘stats’ to back this up (MIA vs CLE on 12/25 is a great example), just a little basic psychology involved (free psychology lesson to all here! J ). Regardless, even if I’m over-analyzing the impact of Granger’s return on Miami’s “motivation” in this one, the 2-game losing streak should be motivation enough for this team. Both Miami and Indiana will be competing for the 8-seed in the East, so this game is even more important. Keep in mind, these teams met @ MIA on 11/12 with the Pacers coming away with a 6-point win. Of course the game was much closer than that, as Miami had a +0.6 point AVERAGE lead throughout. Basically this was as ‘even’ of a game as it gets. Of course it’s important to note that Indiana played that game without West, Watson, George Hill, and Rodney Stuckey. Indiana outrebounded Miami 53 to 28, which is just a ridiculous differential, and an indication to me that Miami just wasn’t playing as ‘hard’. The only way I can explain that performance is that Miami was coming off a HUGE road win @ Dallas, a game where Bosh/Wade/Deng played major minutes and basically carried the Heat to a win. Miami had a few days off prior to the IND game, and then a game @ Atlanta following the contest with IND, so maybe this was a classic ‘sandwich’ spot for them as the overall ‘energy’ just wasn’t up to par. Regardless, I don’t see Miami over-looking this Pacers team again and of course I expect the Heat to give a strong effort here. West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey provide depth, but neither one of these players is a truly big ‘difference maker’ this season (some of them are probably just a tad better than replacement-level players). Bosh is in his 2nd game back from his long-term injury, so I expect him to be even better than he was on Monday. And I like the adjustment in Miami’s lineup with Birdman Andersen playing the center position while Bosh moving a PF spot, which is a major difference from the first meeting between these two teams. Then, Bosh played at Center and got absolutely abused by the bigger Hibbert, who 16 points and 15 rebounds. Now Bosh will be matched up with David West, and Bosh should dominate that matchup. Bosh is taller and much quicker, so he can either shoot over the top or drive to the basket at will. West has a net rating of -9.5 this season, the worst number on the team, and is clearly NOT the same player he was in the last few years. These are some of the reasons why I believe Miami will play a better game today than in the first meeting with Indiana. But even if you don’t agree with these, I believe there’s some line-value on the Heat here. In the first meeting, Miami was a -8.5 home favorite. With standard H/A adjustments, you’d expect them to be around -2.5 road favorite in this matchup, if everything else was ‘equal’. Well, even if you account for West/Watson/Hill/Stuckey being available today, the 6.5 variance between the current line and the ‘expected’ adjusted line doesn’t add up. Sure, the Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu)s have re-adjusted their Power Ratings since earlier in the season, after seeing that this Miami team isn’t as good as advertised, and that most likely had a lot more impact on today’s line than the availability of the four IND players I’ve mentioned. But I feel there’s been an over-adjustment. Heat still rank 8th in eFG% on offense and they are 3rd best at getting to the FT-line. With a healthy Bosh, this team is a lot more dangerous than they’ve been for the last 7 games or so. And let’s not forget that Wade/Deng are still playing at a very high level and are capable of taking over games at any time. Indiana is a ‘grinder’ of a team that relies on strong D (#6) and zero O (#29). They’re the kind of a team that won’t often blow-out opponents, and in an important game for both squads, I expect 4-points to be a big difference in this one. Love Miami here and hopefully they play hard for Granger, and more importantly, for themselves today

Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5

Durant is back for OKC tonight, and that is going to make a big difference in this one. This OKC team already provides a very difficult matchup for the Suns, and with Durant in the fold, it’s an even worse one. There is no one that can guard him on Phoenix. PJ Tucker is known as a defensive player but he’s 6’6 and too slow to stay with a much quicker Durant. Gerald Green is an absolute zero defensively off the bench. When these teams met on 12/14, Durant was just coming back from his early season injury, so was on minutes restriction. He proceeded to shoot 8-13 from the field for 23 points with 8 rebounds in only 24 minutes. What will happen when he’s able to play 35+? Besides Durant, there are other issues for Phoenix in this one. OKC is an elite defensive team, ranking 5th overall in Defensive Efficiency and 4th in eFG%-allowed. They held the Suns to 34% from the field and 88 points in their first meeting. In addition, Thunder will have a huge rebounding advantage in this game, as the Suns are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Particularly on the offensive glass, where OKC ranks 4th overall while Suns are 24th in Defensive RBD-rate. In the first meeting, OKC outrebounded the Suns 63 to 40, and had a 35% offensive RBD-rate in the game. Finally, the fact that Suns tend to have trouble playing D without fouling is a big issue. This team is aggressive defensively ranking 7th in defensive TO-rate, but they are also 29th in FT-rate allowed. That’s a big issue here as OKC with Durant in the lineup tends to live at the FT-line. In the first meeting, Thunder had 34 FT-attempts to Phoenix’ 18.



Keep in mind that when these teams met the first time, Suns had a day-off prior, and were only playing their 2nd game in 5 days. OKC also had a day-off prior, but they were playing their 4th game in 6 nights, so in a tougher physical spot. They proceeded to blow out the Suns 112-88 with an average lead of +18.4 points throughout. That’s as dominant of a performance as you can get. Well, today’s situation is a lot different. OKC has had 2 full days off to rest and practice, as they prepare for this important game (remember, they are chasing Phoenix in the standings). By comparison, the Suns are on b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4th in 6th, with all 4 games being on the road. In addition, they played a really close game @ NO last night, barely losing to the Pellies. In the process, Dragic and Bledsoe logged 36 and 37 minutes respectively. Going up against an explosive Westbrook today could be very difficult for these guys. Fatigue could very well be a major issue tonight for the Suns. Playing their last road-game of the trip prior to heading home on New Year’s Eve is not an easy spot to play in. Facing a fully-healthy and well rested OKC team just makes it that much more difficult. Durant is back for OKC, it’s a great spot to fade the Suns, and most importantly, Thunder is a very difficult matchup for this small, guard-oriented Phoenix team. Lay the points with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
strong
arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports unlimited/Marco D'Angelo

7* miss state

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SPORTS BANK
had 500* LOCK
OLE MISS

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Topshelfpicks (CBB)

Raiderman

St John's
Purdue
Wisconsin
Kansas St
Indiana
Georgetown
Butler

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MY SYSTEM PICKS

Boise St +3 (2u)
Miss St -4 (2u)

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VEGAS RUNNER

718) PURDUE PK (nfac $500)

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OC Dooley

2 Units Wofford +22.5

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DOC SPORTS (CBB)
4*Kansas St.

STRIKE POINT SPORTS (NBA)
4-Unit Play. Take Houston (-12) over Charlotte (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 31)

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Money Maverick
NCAAF:

Arizona -2.5 (10 units)
Mississippi St -4.5 (10 units)

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RIVER CITY SHARPS
Our computer modeling has the Redbirds winning this one by 15+, so we really like Illinois State in this spot. Consider that Indiana St. is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and the Redbirds are 5-1 against the number in their last six games. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and this appears to be a long day for the Sycamores, who are clearly experiencing a significant drop-off this season. As a bonus (we are not playing this, but food for thought)…The OVER has hit in 15 of the last 20 matchups between these two teams! The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – ILLINOIS STATE (-10)

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DAVE COKIN

CBB (743) GEORGIA at (744) KANSAS STATE

2* Premium Best Bet: (744) KANSAS STATE -2.5

My first take when viewing the numbers for Wednesday’s college basketball slate was that the line on this Georgia/Kansas State game was a little on the peculiar side. After all, Georgia has rolled to an impressive 7-3 start, while the Wildcats are 7-5 and haven’t exactly been flashing much positive form.

It always interests me when I see a betting line that I consider to be “off”. But rather than take the stance that the books have made a mistake, which I consider to be kind of a dumb conclusion, my sense is that I want to find out what they’re seeing that I’m not.

The way this game is lined, I can see the numbers guys jumping on what they will perceive as value on the underdog. The game power rates close to pick ‘em, and Kansas State has not been anything close to a go with team.

Upon further investigation, while I didn’t come up with any math to support this spread, I did garner what I felt to be some decent information on the Kansas State side. The Wildcats just suffered what they believe is an embarrassing loss to Texas Southern. K-State roared out to a big early lead, had another 12-0 run later and still managed to lose on its home court to a team they’re simply not supposed to lose to.

Post-game commentary from the coach and some players indicates they’re a very frustrated entry right now. Lots of talk about needing better effort and energy. I can tell you from watching this team play a couple times this season that they need to put some real movement into their motion offense, as there’s been lots of standing around. Also, as I noted in some Twitter observations a few games back, the Wildcats need to grow a pair. I think they’ve been a very soft team thus far that has gotten outworked on a regular basis. Thus, the lousy record and rotten recent form.

Kansas State should be better than they’ve been. This is not a powerhouse by any means, but the Wildcats should at least be pretty good. I’m going to bank on them coming out with a sense of real purpose here. If they do, they can get themselves a win against a Georgia team that hasn’t been as potent when traveling away from Athens. If they don’t and the Wildcats lose again, I can get the money back playing against them in conference play. So call it a one-shot play for me on the favorite to deliver a big effort that produces a positive result. I’ll lay it here with Kansas State.

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Anthony Michael

Boise St +3

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Bookiereport

NEED:
Arizona -3
Mississippi State -4.5

***Ole Miss (earlier)

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Port port sports (ncaa bb)

*2 units* houston cougars (+11.5)

*2 units* indiana hoosiers (+4)

*2 units* minnesota golden gophers (-1.5)

*2 units* st. John’s red storm (-2)

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BETTING AS A BUSINESS

NCAAB: 5:00 et

#749 Air Force +14 / San Diego St. 5:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON AIR FORCE)

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spartan | NBA Sides

dime bet – 703 MIA 4.5 (-110) vs 704 IND

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HARRY BONDI

College Football Free Pick
Orange Bowl

GEORGIA TECH (+6.5) over Mississippi State
8 p.m. ET
We’ll gladly take the points with a Georgia Tech offense that not only averages 40 points per game on the road, but also has dominated time of possession this season. The Yellow Jackets have also cashed in five out of six times this year when listed as the underdog and have gone 7-1 ATS against winning teams. We’re also not sure how motivated the Bulldogs will be here tonight, considering they were the No. 1 team in the country for a good portion of the season. Now, after losing any chance at a playoff spot with a loss to Alabama and then getting drilled by rival Ole Miss in the biggest Egg Bowl in history, they limp into this game losers of two of their last three games. Take the points!

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Vegas linereader

Boise St. +3

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BEN BURNS

Blue Marlin Big Chalk Beatdown! *NEW YEAR’s EVE SPECIAL!*
DETROIT RED WINGS ML

*EARLY* ‘New Year’s Eve 10* BLUE CHIP!
NYI vs Winnepeg – Under 5.5

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Jack jones

20* miss st

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Big Jay Dotson

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL) - Dec 31, 2014 7:05 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NHL
Play Selected: Money Line: 200
Analysis: Hit the Hurricanes to win outright for a 1000* Winner

Creighton vs. Providence (NCAAB) -Dec 31, 2014 7:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NCAAB
Play Selected: Point Spread: -6.0/-110
Analysis: Hit Providence minus the points for a 1000* Winner

Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi St (NCAAF) - Dec 31, 2014 8:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NCAAF
Play Selected: Point Spread: 7.0/-120
Analysis: Hit Georgia Tech plus the points for a 1000* Winner

Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA) - Dec 31, 2014 8:05 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NBA
Play Selected: Point Spread: -7.5/-110
Analysis: Hit the Thunder minus the points for a 1000* Winner

UNLV vs. Wyoming (NCAAB) - Dec 31, 2014 9:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NCAAB
Play Selected: Point Spread: 6.0/-110
Analysis: Hit UNLV plus the points for a 1000* Winner

Georgetown vs. Xavier (NCAAB) -Dec 31, 2014 10:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Play Title: 1000* NCAAB
Play Selected: Point Spread: -5.0/-110
Analysis: Hit Xavier minus the points for a 1000* Winner

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SB Professor Original NBA Picks

LATE GAMES

System Play:
New York +13


Additional Plays:
Cleveland -4
Charlotte +12

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JACK JONES

20* Miss.St.

25* Florida St. (1/1/15)

20* Auburn (1/1/15)

15* Alabama (1/1/15)

20* Tennessee /1/2/15)

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS (Bowl Games)

3-Unit Play. Take #251 Boise State (+3.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 31)
This is game that features a been there/done that type of team, and a team that is just too wet behind the ears for my liking. Boise State just has too much value as a dog to not run with them. This is a team that we haven’t hear much from this year, and yet they are only getting just over a field goal from a good team out of the Pac 12. Arizona was flying high until their big loss to Oregon, and now they are a small favorite versus a team that they should be better than? Yes sir, I will take Boise. This line is begging you to take Arizona, but we won’t bite. Now don’t get me wrong, Boise is ranked in the top 25, but they have done this very quietly. They snuck up on everyone by winning their last eight games, to grab the vaunted “best team out of the minor conferences.” Now they ride this wining streak into the Fiesta Bowl, where their magic abounds. Boise State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Take the points in this one, but I don’t think you need them as I see the Broncos winning this game outright.

3-Unit Play. Take #253 Georgia Tech (+7) over Mississippi State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 31)
There are two completely different styles of football in this game, and because of this, I don’t see it being a blowout. Georgia Tech’s offense will slow down the Mississippi State pass rush, and allow the Jackets to keep this game close. I am not sure if Georgia Tech wins this game outright, but I will gladly take the touchdown line. Georiga Tech proved throughout the season that they can compete with the big boys with their style of football as they played FSU tough, and beat Georiga. The loss of DeAndre Smelter hurts as he was their scarriest wideout, but Darren Waller proved he can get the job done with his 5-73-1 line versus Florida State in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech is ready and wating for this game and the trends back it up:
GT is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record
GT is 6-0 ATS in their last six games on grass
GT is 6-0 ATS in their last six games OVERALL
Take the points in this game as they will hold up for a nice underdog payout.

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GURU (NBA)

Hornets
Okc/Suns – Over (1st half)

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JAMES JONES

added

NCAAB – Wyoming University(-6.5)-119…(2*)

NCAAB – Xavier University(-5.5)-110…(2*)

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DIMOND DOG SPORTS

NBA

#705: Knicks: +13.0 (-110) (0.5*)

NCAAB

#753: Marquette: -5.0 (-110) (0.5)

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EZWINNERS

5* Florida St +8
3* Florida St +255

4* Ohio St +8.5
2* Ohio St +272

3* Michigan St +2.5
2* Michigan St +125