6-4-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::handshake::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates on Wednesday and likes the A’s on Thursday.

The deficit is 377 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KING CREOLE

4☆ Cavs/Warriors UNDER
..."squares" on the OVER, but line has dropped = "smart money" on the UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

Golf The Memorial Tournament

Tournament plays for the Memorial, which starts Thursday, Jun 04, 2015 in Columbus, OH

Matt Kuchar – 10/170
Jim Furyk – 10/200
Justin Thomas – 10/450
Steve Stricker – 10/700
Harris English – 10/800
Chesson Hadley – 10/1000

Furyk has good numbers there, rounding into form a bit as well…
I’m not sure how other guys do it, but my goal on Tournament plays for golf is that the total stake of my wagers (say $60 here, could be $600, doesn’t matter) equals roughly 1/3 of the winning result with the lowest odds player I have selected. So here, I have laid out $60 for six players and if Kuchar wins (my lowest odds), I win $170.
Not sure how/why I came to this theory, but it seems to work pretty well…so I stick with it! I use the same with NASCAR, although it is generally 3-4 drivers max. FWIW….Best of luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 1 Props – Best Bets
By VI News

Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off Thursday and bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash tickets on the best-of-seven series between the Warriors and Cavaliers.

Along with your basic side and total wagers, all sportsbooks are offering up “Proposition Wagers” or “Props” for each game of the series.

Similar to our predictions for each round, our trio of NBA experts will be offering up their Best Prop Bets for each game.

Based on a five-unit bankroll for each game, their top plays are listed below.

Pro capper – Chris David

3 Units – Over Tristan Thompson Total Rebounds 10.5 (-120)

A lot of bettors look at averages for prop wagers but I would advise to look at current form and then the particular numbers posted by the oddsmakers. Thompson is averaging 9.9 rebounds per game in the playoffs, which is up from his regular season numbers (8 RPG). However, his minutes and numbers have both gone up since Kevin Love went out with an injury. In the last 10 games for Cavs, he’s posted 10 or more boards in seven games and 11-plus five times. What I like about Thompson is that he’s been fearless on the road, especially in the last two series. During the five games versus the Bulls and Hawks, he posted 37 and 26 rebounds respectively for an average of 12.6 PPG. Lastly, I believe the layoff for Game 1 will hurt both teams offensively, which will lead to more rebounds and hopefully a winning ticket.

1 Unit – Under Timofey Mozgov Total Points & Rebounds 17.5 (-115)

This wager is practically tied into my Thompson investment since both players will be roaming the Cavaliers frontcourt. In 14 playoff games, Mozgov has surpassed this total five times and just three times since Love went out. His numbers are much better at home than on the road and I don’t see him getting as many minutes in this series unless center Andrew Bogut gets more time for Golden State and that hasn’t been the case lately.

1 Unit – Under Klay Thompson Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 2.5 (+130)

Despite the concussion issue, I expect Thompson to be fine for Game 1. With that being said, this wager is based strictly on tendencies for him at home in the playoffs rather than the injury. In eight games at Oracle Arena in the playoffs, he’s hit at least three 3-pointers in four games (3, 3, 3, 4) and a few barely got there. For whatever reason, his percentages have been down at home and grabbing the plus money is an added kicker.

Pro capper – Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over Stephen Curry Total made free throws 4.5 (+105)

His ability to get past Kyrie Irving and Matthew Dellavedova will be a huge factor here, since the Cavs are going to be looking to take away his perimeter looks and will over-play. He’ll get to the line within the flow of the game, is always a threat to be fouled on 3-pointers and may also have opportunities down the stretch in the fourth quarter to seal this one up. Curry would be 7-8 on this prop this postseason, but has topped seven free throws in games seven times. He’s shot double-figure free throws four times. Only Mike Conley and Tony Allen were able to stay in front of him effectively this postseason and there’s no one of that caliber in this series.

1 Unit – Under Kyrie Irving Total Made Points + Assists 26 (-120)

The Cavs would love to see him assert himself in this series opener to alleviate fears that he’s going to be a liability in this series, but they’re not going to fill his plate up with early responsibilities when the priority is to see how he handles moving around chasing Curry. If he’s off his game or less mobile than expected, he’s not going to get to these figures.

1 Unit – Over Tristan Thompson Total Rebounds 10.5 (-120)

What Chris David wrote. I’ll add that he’ll be able to float since it’s more likely that Mozgov is tying up Bogut, so he’ll lead the Cavs in rebounding in this series more often than not. Given the boundless energy

1 Unit – Over Iman Shumpert 3-point field goals 1.5 (-130)

Expect him to be on the floor more than J.R. Smith in this Game 1. Unless he goes Game 7 John Starks on us, he’ll have a host of opportunities to knock this out and has been aggressive and effective over the past two series in taking his looks. He’s averaged six 3-pointers per game over the last 10 (EC Semis & ECF), hitting 23 (38 pct.) and would have won this wager six of 10 times. Look for him to knock down a couple.

Pro capper – Kevin Rogers

3 Units – Under Kyrie Irving Total Points & Assists 26 (-120)

It may seem too easy to take this prop, but until the Cavaliers’ point guard proves he’s healthy, there’s no reason to think Irving is going to blow up in the opener. Irving scored 16 points and dished out five assists in just 22 minutes of the series clincher against Atlanta after missing two games. However, Irving never produced more than six assists in any of his 12 playoff games, as winning this prop would likely mean he would have to score at least 20 points. Since Game 3 of the conference semifinals against the Bulls, Irving put up over 16 points just once in his last six games.

1 Unit – Under Stephen Curry Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 5.5 (-200)

The league MVP had a strong series from behind the arc against the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, but Curry is facing a much better defense in this round. Cleveland led all playoff teams with a .281 defensive three-point field goal percentage, while limiting Atlanta to 10-of-49 in two road victories in the East Finals. At home in the playoffs, Curry hit five three-pointers or less in six of eight contests at Oracle Arena.

1 Unit – Over LeBron James Total Made 3 Point Field Goals 1.5 (-115)

James has been dreadful from long distance in the playoffs, drilling just 12-of-68 three-point attempts. So why take the ‘over’ on this prop? The odds are -115 each way and James will definitely get looks, attempting at least five treys in nine playoff games. Asking James to hit just two at his price isn’t asking a lot, as you have the entire game to cash this prop as opposing to limiting yourself early if James knocks down a pair of three-pointers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brady Kannon

Golf The Memorial Tournament

Full Tournament Head to Head Match Up plays..
Brooks Koepka (-110) over Ben Martin
Chris Kirk (EVEN) over Kevin Na

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PREDICTION MACHINE – NBA FINALS PREVIEW

2015 NBA Finals – Odds to win the title.

The NBA Finals begin on June 4th. The championship will feature the league MVP, Stephen Curry, against the four-time MVP LeBron James. Cleveland is seeking its first NBA title while Golden State has been in a championship drought since 1975.

Before the NBA Playoffs began, we projected the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers to meet in the NBA Finals 19.0% of the time, which was the most likely finals matchup. The Warriors were our most likely champion winning the NBA Title 30.0% of the time in our simulations.

While we could not foresee the season-ending injury to Kevin Love, the suspension of JR Smith, the possible concussion of Klay Thompson or the nagging knee/ankle injury of Kyrie Irving, we can account for these injuries, roster changes and even how team depth charts have been utilized throughout the postseason to produce new projections for this specific series. Updating all numbers, the Golden State Warriors should be the favorites, but not quite as significant as the sportsbooks in Las Vegas would suggest.

In 50,000 simulations of the NBA Finals, Golden State wins over Cleveland 68.3% of the time. The most likely scenario (as seen below) is a five game series won by the Warriors who have home court advantage and would close out that series in front of the home crowd at Roarcle. The current consensus lines have Golden State as a -240 favorite to win the series and Cleveland at +190. To be comfortable wagering on either side, one would have to be at least 70.6% confident in the Warriors at -240 or at 34.5% confident in the Cavs at +190. In other words, this series is not bettable and there is no value in backing either team to win the title.

In our simulations we assume that Kyrie Irving is fully healthy, having eight days off between games should go a long way to calming the tendinitis he was suffering from in the conference finals. The Cavs will need their young star to shine if they are going to upset the favored Warriors. Cleveland is most likely to win the series in six games. This means LeBron and company will need to win on the road, a tall task. The Warriors only lost two homes games during the regular season and one (vs. Memphis) in the playoffs.

Neither team is likely to sweep the other. There is a 58.0% chance that the series goes at least six games and a 28.2% chance the series gets to a decisive Game 7.

Here are the results of the 2015 Warriors-Cavaliers NBA Finals played 50,000 times:

Region Team ♦ In 4 ♦ In 5 ♦ In 6 ♦ In 7

Eastern Cleveland ♦ 3.7 ♦ 5.8 ♦ 12.5 ♦ 9.7

Western Golden State ♦ 11.4 ♦ 21.1% ♦ 17.3 ♦ 18.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ultra Sports MLB

3* St Louis
3* Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Cubs @ Nationals
Arrieta is 1-3, 4.93 in his last six starts.

Gonzalez is 1-0, 6.65 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.

Cubs lost six of last eight games with Washington, with last four going under total; they're 3-6 in last nine games overall. Seven of last eight Cub games stayed under. Washington lost five of last six games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

Reds @ Phillies
DeSclafani is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; three of his last four went under.

Harang is 0-2, 3.50 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Reds lost five of last six games in Philly; six of last seven series games went over total. Cincinnati five of last six went over total. Phillies lost seven of last nine games, but they won last two; four of their last six stayed under.

Mets @ Diamondbacks
Mets lost four of last five Harvey starts; he is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three road starts. Four of his last six starts stayed under the total.

Hellickson is 2-0, 3.38 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over.

Mets won six of last eight games with Arizona; road team won seven of the eight games. NY lost four of last six games; five of those six went over total. Arizona won four of last six games; over is 5-0-1 in those six.

Cardinals @ Dodgers
Wacha is 2-1, 2.92 in his last four starts.

Frias is 1-2, 5.87 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.

Dodgers are 21-7 at home, St Louis is 13-11 on road. LA lost four of last five games with Cardinals; last six series games stayed under. St Louis won eight of last ten games; six of its last seven stayed under. Dodgers are 3-5 in their last eight games.

American League
A's @ Tigers
Hahn is 1-4, 5.42 in his last seven starts; five of the seven went over.

Greene is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts; four of his last six went under.

Oakland won eight of last 11 games but lost six of last nine games vs Detroit- six of last seven stayed under. Tigers lost last six games, outscored by 37-14; seven of their last nine stayed under.

Orioles @ Astros
Chen is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six.

Keuchel is 2-1, 1.88 in his last three starts; they all stayed under.

Orioles are 4-9 in last 13 games overall; nine of those 13 stayed under. O's lost four of last five games with Houston; eight of last eleven series games stayed under. Astros won four of last five games (under 4-1).

Twins @ Red Sox
Milone returns from AAA to make first start since April 27; he is 2-1, 4.76 in his four starts, with last three going over.

Wright is 1-2, 4.24 in his three starts (over 2-1).

Home side won last nine of last ten Minnesota-Boston games (under 7-3); Twins won eight of last 11 games- four of last seven went over. Red Sox lost seven of last ten games, with five of last seven staying under.

White Sox @ Rangers
White Sox are 3-1 when Rodon starts (1-0, 4.43); three of four went over.

Gallardo is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Chicago lost three of its last four games with Texas (over 5-2-1 in last eight); Rangers won four of last five games overall. White Sox are 5-3 in their last eight games overall; four of last six went over.

Indians @ Royals
Bauer is 2-1, 1.53 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.

Young is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Cleveland lost seven of last 11 games with KC; eight of last ten series games went over the total. Indians won five of last seven games overall; four of their last five stayed under. Royals lost six of last eight games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Rays @ Mariners
Former Mariner Ramirez is 3-1, 3.13 in his last four starts.

Elias is 2-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; his last seven stayed under.

Tampa Bay lost last six games with Seattle; road team won eight of last nine series games, with seven of last nine staying under. Rays won four of last five games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Mariners lost their last five games- they traded for Mark Trumbo last night. M's scored 12 runs in last five games.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 5-5; Gonzalez 7-3
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 5-5; Harang 5-6
NY-Az-- Harvey 6-4; Hellickson 4-6
StL-LA-- Wacha 9-1; Frias 3-3

A's-Det-- Hahn 2-8; Greene 6-5
Balt-Hst-- Chen 5-5; Keuchel 9-2
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-2; Wright 1-2
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 3-1; Gallardo 5-6
Cle-KC-- Bauer 5-5; Young 4-1
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 4-2; Elias 2-5

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Wsh-- Arrieta 4-10; Gonzalez 1-10
Cin-Phil-- DeSclafani 1-10; Harang 2-11
NY-Az-- Harvey 3-10; Hellickson 5-10
StL-LA-- Wacha 3-10; Frias 3-6

A's-Det-- Hahn 4-10; Greene 3-11
Balt-Hst-- Chen 3-10; Keuchel 2-11
Min-Bos-- Milone 2-4; Wright 1-3
Chi-Tex-- Rodon 0-4; Gallardo 5-11
Cle-KC-- Bauer 1-10; Young 0-5
TB-Sea-- Ramirez 2-6; Elias 3-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Any team (CLEVELAND) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games
128-77 since 1997. ( 62.4% | 43.3 units )
7-6 this year. ( 53.8% | 0.4 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (CLEVELAND) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days
51-14 since 1997. ( 78.5% | 29.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.2 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 10 points or more
66-31 since 1997. ( 68.0% | 31.9 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% | 2.6 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - Road teams (CLEVELAND) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL
177-96 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 63.6 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | -5.3 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 22-9 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was: HOUSTON (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo walking the Wacha

Cy Kluber threw in another clunker Wednesday night, taking the loss in Kansas City to expand Hondo’s filthy figure to a shabby 785 schoendiensts.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch expects Wacha to resume his winning ways — 10 units on the Cards’ ace to prevail in his rematch with Frias and the Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

St. Louis Cardinals (+100)

Chicago White Sox (+115)

Cleveland Indians (+105)

Cubs/Nationals – Over 7 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

MLB

2* (969) Rays +$116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hall of Fame Picks

Houston Astros ML (-153)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Sweden » Allsvenskan » Kalmar - Hammarby
Kalmar, +0.25(Asian handicap)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

50 Dimes - UNDER 203 1/2 points in the Cleveland Cavaliers/Golden State Warriors game, 9:00 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Triple Dime 3* NBA Golden State -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SYDNEY ST GEORGE
(MLB) PHILADELPHIA -105 CINCINNATI (7PM)
Harang and the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against Anthony DeSclafani and the Cincinnati Reds for the third game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Its hard not to back Aaron Harang tonight. Harang has pitched well versus his former team in his career, possessing a 3-1 record and a 2.97 ERA in five starts versus the Reds. Harang is fifth in the National League in ERA with a mark of 2.02 through 11 starts. Harang has only allowed four runs in 35 innings at Citizens Bank Park this season. DeSclafani has not had the same kind of success against the Phillies, as the right-hander has an ERA of 7.94 in two career appearances vs. Philadelphia. L

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff barone
(nba playoffs) cleveland +6 golden st (9pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLAS
(MLB) HOUSTON -160 BALTIMORE (2PM)
American League Pitcher of the Month Dallas Keuchel (7-1, 1.76 ERA) will take the mound against Baltimore's Wei-Yen Chen. Keuchel has thrown two straight complete games entering this start. Ill back Houston at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Cavs +6

100* Tigers -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers

Golden State (-6 -105)
The Warriors are favored to win this series, but it almost feels like they are treated like an underdog heading into the Finals against the Cavaliers. Klay Thompson is expected to play in Game 1 after suffering a concussion in the series clincher against Houston in the last round. The Cavaliers cruised past the Hawks in four games and won two of those games without Kyrie Irving, who still isn't at 100% despite the week of rest. In LeBron James' playoff career, he is 1-8 in Game 1's on the road, with the only win coming at Atlanta in the last round. Golden State is listed as a home favorite of less than 9.5 points for the first time in the playoffs, while winning eight of nine games at Oracle Arena. I'll back the Warriors to cash in the series opener.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vip-picks

Ivanovic - Safarova
Tip: Safarova WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

napsporttips

fixed tips
Kansas City - Cleveland
Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* Arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle Baseball

THURSDAY

Play Houston -140 over Baltimore (Top Play)

Dallas Keuchel has won three consecutive games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has won 4 of the last 5 day games. Dallas Keuchel has won 5 of the last 6 home games and he has an ERA of 1.50 in his last three starts.


Play Texas -120 over Chicago White Sox (Top Play)

Yovani Gallardo has won 96 of the last 156 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 68 of the last 116 home games. Yovani Gallardo has won 81 of the last 141 night games and he has won 2 of the last 3 games with an ERA of 3.71.


Play Washington -110 over Chicago Cubs (Top Play)

Gio Gonzalez has won 83 of the last 120 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 22 of the last 29 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents. Gio Gonzalez has won 57 of the last 96 games coming off a team loss and he has won 14 of the last 19 games when pitching on a Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Angle

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

Play Golden State -5.5 over Cleveland (NBA TOP PLAY)

Golden State has covered the spread in 23 of the last 36 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have covered the spread in 29 of the last 47 home games. Golden State has covered the spread in 31 of the last 50 games coming off a win by ten points or more and they are averaging 111 points at home this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL

10* Play Houston -140 over Baltimore (MLB PLAY)

Houston has won 29 of the last 45 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have won 20 of the last 33 games coming off a win in their last game. Houston has won 16 of the last 24 home games vs. AL East Division Opponents and they have won 12 of the last 18 day games.


10* Play Boston -140 over Minnesota (MLB PLAY)

Minnesota has lost 45 of the last 77 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and they have lost 29 of the last 48 games when playing on a Thursday. Minnesota has lost 40 of the last 65 games after scoring and allowing three runs or less in their last game and they have lost 91 of the last 166 games coming off a win in their last game.


10* Play New York Mets -140 over Arizona (MLB PLAY)

Arizona has lost 45 of the last 77 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and they have lost 39 of the last 63 games when playing as a home underdog of +100 or higher. Arizona has lost 80 of the last 149 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 96 of the last 179 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper

THURSDAY

NBA HOOPS

10* Play Golden State -5.5 over Cleveland (NBA)

Golden State has won 74 of the last 86 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 46 of the last 49 home games. Golden State has won 43 of the last 53 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 21 of the last 23 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL


50* Play Golden State -5.5 over Cleveland (NBA)

Golden State is 29-18 ATS in home games this season
Golden State is 23-13 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY MLB BASEBALL


50* Play Detroit -115 over Oakland

Oakland is 1-5 when playing on a Thursday
Oakland is 5-14 in day games this season


50* Play Washington -110 over Chicago Cubs

Washington is 52-37 after having lost four or five of the last six games
Washington is 25-16 when playing on a Thursday


50* Play Houston -140 over Baltimore

Houston is 29-16 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Houston is 12-6 in day games this season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Cleveland Cavaliers
Oakland athletics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Rays +125 (Ramirez/Elias)

Erasmo Ramirez homecoming, so he should be fired up to go against a team that I'm sure he feels dumped him. Ramirez is mediocre but he's off an exceptional start. Roenis Elias for the Mariners here, and he's no great shakes either, also it's not exactly a stellar matchup. Rays hit lefties decently, bullpens are roughly even, though I'd give ninth inning edge to TB for sure. Mariners made the deal for Mark Trumbo, and that should help their offense, though his defense is atrocious if they're putting him in the outfield. No clue as to whether or not Trumbo gets to Seattle for this game. I was thinking of waiting for the lineup info to show tomorrow, but my sense is that if he's playing the number drops, so perhaps better to just go ahead with it early at what is a decent enough dog price. No problems trying to beat Seattle right now, so let's take the Rays in this spot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis MLB

2-Unit Play. Take #957 St Louis +100 over LA Dodgers (Thursday, June 4th at 10:10 p.m.)

[golden contender]

Thursday card has the NBA Finals Double Perfect Historical super system side and the 96% MLB Power system game of the week. MLB 3* 90% totals system below.





The MLB Totals system play is on the Over 7.5 runs in the Cleveland at KC Game. Rotation numbers 967/968 at 8:10 eastern. This game fits a powerful 90% totals system that dates to 2004 and averages over 11 runs per game when it has applied. We are playing over the total for home favorites like Kansas City in games where the total is 8 or less if they are off a home dog win and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent that lost as a road favorite and scored 2 or less runs and had 10+ hits. Both pitchers in this game. C. Young for KC and T. Bauer for Cleveland have been excellent as both have an Era under one. This will be the game they give up some runs as they both make their first starts here in June. In the Series 6 of the last 8 have posted over the total. Cleveland has played over 5 of 6 times as a road dog from_100 to +125 and 15 of 20 vs winning teams. Look for this game to push over the total tonight. On Thursday the NBA Finals Double Perfect Historical system side takes center stage along with the 5* MLB Game of the Week from a Powerful 96% System that dates to 2004. Jump on now and put the most powerful data in the industry on your side. For the MLB Totals play. Take Cleveland and Kansas City to go over 7.5 runs. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers

Golden State (-6 -105)
The Warriors are favored to win this series, but it almost feels like they are treated like an underdog heading into the Finals against the Cavaliers. Klay Thompson is expected to play in Game 1 after suffering a concussion in the series clincher against Houston in the last round. The Cavaliers cruised past the Hawks in four games and won two of those games without Kyrie Irving, who still isn't at 100% despite the week of rest. In LeBron James' playoff career, he is 1-8 in Game 1's on the road, with the only win coming at Atlanta in the last round. Golden State is listed as a home favorite of less than 9.5 points for the first time in the playoffs, while winning eight of nine games at Oracle Arena. I'll back the Warriors to cash in the series opener.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

Cavs / Warriors Under 203

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER

BEST BET
CLEVELAND over *GOLDEN STATE by 4
Golden State intrinsically it seems is the better team. They are nearly unbeatable at home, they are great holding teams to a poor shooting percentage and they are deep at guard and can bring in former All Stars as forwards. Andrew Bogut has to stay healthy but he has been solid. But they are not perfect. They have had a tendency to not value the ball and they must do that if they want to control the tempo in this series. Considering the layoff, both teams could come out a bit rusty and that will favor Cleveland and give them a shot to quiet to home crowd if they can get out to an early lead and control the tempo. You can bet your bottom dollar that LeBron is sick and tired of hearing how Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time and that the King is only 17% from long range in the playoffs. That last stat can be easily fixed if LeBron just goes to the hoop. Bogut is a good defender but really not a shot blocker. Granted the regular season is the regular season, but when Cleveland played this team for the first time this year they were in the midst of losing 9 of 10, LeBron didn’t play and the guy that started for LeBron had 0 points. And the ball stuck with 13 assists. When Cleveland got revenge on the Californians the Cavaliers won the battle of the glass, the Splash Brothers were 10 for 30 combined and LeBron had 42 and 11 boards. This is the game to get because if they can, then the Warriors will be tight as a drum for the second game. CLEVELAND 104 – 100


7:05
RECOMMENDED
CHICAGO CUBS (Arrieta) +115
at Washington Nationals (G. Gonzalez)
These two offenses have seen better days but given that the Cubs are healthier and are facing their preferred side, they are the pick. The Cubs are hitting lefties to the tune of 5.4 runs per game in their eight chances and will look to build on that against a pitcher in Gio Gonzalez who is not at his best right now. He has a 5.94 ERA in his last three outings with the only good one coming against a horrible Phillies team. He has nice recent numbers vs. the Cubs but their personnel is much bet- ter than last year. Jake Arrieta is in for a nice day. Washington has been banged up all year and they just aren’t putting runs on the board. They have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games with seven of those featuring two or fewer runs. They are just not in a good place right now and that should cost them.

9:40
RECOMMENDED TOTAL
UNDER 8
New York Mets (Harvey) at Arizona (Hellickson)
Matt Harvey returns to the scene of his major league debut when he struck out 11 D-Backs in just 5.2 innings. On paper, it looks like Harvey struggled in his last start but he really just had an unlucky three batter span. He allowed four runs but only six hits and struck out 11 in eight innings and should be ready to get back on track today. Jeremy Hellickson is usually an over target of ours but we have to give credit where credit is due: He is pitching well right now with a 3.37 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts. The Mets offense isn’t great, and is much worse on the road this year, scoring only 3.2 runs per game. Look for them to struggle here.

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Indian Cowboy


3* LA Dodgers

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Frank Patron


20,000 Money Move


Cleveland Cavaliers +6

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Cleveland Insider

MLB

Orioles +1.5
Diamondbacks +1.5
Dodgers -1.5

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Play Of The Day

Golden State Warriors -6

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Justin Michael Sports (YTD NBA +26 Units)

Thursday, June 4th 2015 at 8:00PM CST – Cleveland vs Golden State – 5.5

GOLDEN STATE 5 UNITS

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Strike Point Sports MLB

7-Unit Play. Take NY Mets (-140) over Arizona

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Indian Cowboy NBA
7* Warriors -6

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Tony Chau

NBA Futures bet: Bet on the Golden State Warriors to win the 2015 NBA Final

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Bookieshunter

2* Cubs

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Steve Budin

NEW YORK CREW
50 Dime Winner # 18 of 24

Golden State -6

BONUS PLAY

My No. 2 NBA Crew the past 5 Years
CALI-CARTEL
100 DIME Series Play

Golden St Series

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Wayne root

millionaire golden st. Warriors

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5 Unit Total Play · Under [951] Chicago Cubs vs. [952] Washington Nationals
Inisde The Dugout Thu Jun 4th, 2015 7:05pm EDT

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SB Professor Original MLB

Follow:
Arizona +124

Fade:
NY Mets -134

No play in the NBA

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Dr. Bob

2* golden st up to -6

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James Jones

3* MLB-Chicago Cubs ML+102
2* NBA-Under 204 Cleveland Cavaliers/Golden State Warriors -104

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BOB BALFE

Cardinals -110 over Dodgers
Wacha/Frias

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Godfather locks:
10* GS

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Dave Essler

PLAY: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY

I might suggest splitting this ML with the RL - or some books have +1 - which equates to the same thing. Why be greedy for the free (essentially) run for the home team. However, I expect the D-Backs to win the game and all I was waiting to see was how the Mets/Gee might fare in San Diego. Like the Fish last night, it's often times the eyeball test, and the Mets committed and early error, Gee walked one and hit one, and has thrown a fair amount of pitches early - so, I would expect them to use some bullpen sooner rather than later. Gee hadn't gone through the 6th inning in three of his five starts prior. I wanted this bet after Arizona came back to beat Atlanta - from a HUGE deficit, giving them more mojo heading into this game with New York. Arizona has simply been getting key hits from a lot of different people, and won today without Trumbo playing nor Goldschmidt getting a hit. Of course we have Harvey, who hasn't been right and I am seeing shades of Strasburg after the TJ surgery, perhaps. Let's not forget, it was a year-and-a-half before he threw a baseball - and he's thrown over 100 pitches in three of his last four games. Hellickson (see note re pitching change) CAN keep the ball on the ground - and my hesitation would have been the Arizona bullpen - but they've come around, sporting a 2.41 ERA over the last week. Heading into last night, the Mets were 8-16 on the road and had scored THE least amount of runs on the road of any team in baseball, they've hit only 18 jacks in 24 road games, and hit .229 as a team. Arizona gets about six extra hours in their own beds while the Mets travel into the night. I hope the roof IS open - because my guess is that heat will take an even bigger toll on the Mets. All we need is a reasonable outing from Hellickson, who the Mets haven't seen much of, and Arizona takes home another nice win. Anyone just on this $1 play - I lean to the Cubs (some spark after the Lake incident in Miami, the Cubs over (weather could be a factor), Philadelphia, and the Royals.


1:35PM EST -Pitching change - which is actually IMO for the better here. Robbie Ray is gong for the D-backs and simply don't like the Mets against a LHP. So, I am leaving it, or re-betting it as the case may be of you list pitchers (you should).The Mets have obviously never seen him and he held the Rockies to one run in six innings at Colorado earlier this season. The very fact that the total re-opened at less (vig) that it was before the change was announced is another great indicator. So, I will still split this bet and perhaps even add a F5 on Arizona here, assuming that perhaps Ray gets through the order twice - and a F5 under perhaps as well. I can't change the +125 so that's what it'll be graded on, but that's also about the most widely available number.

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS: +122 UNITS YTD

Free Play: Cleveland vs Golden St Over 203.5

MLB Plays:

Minnesota vs Boston Over 8.5

5***** NY Mets -130 vs Arizona

St. Louis -110 vs LA Dodgers

NBA Service Plays:

Golden St -5.5 vs Cleveland

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Kyle Hunter

3* Cincy

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Gordons

$400 texas -128

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We Pick Sports

Cleveland +5.5 10* 9:00 ET {Diamond Selection}

Cleveland/Golden State Over 204 6* 9:00


MLB

Kansas City (-115) 8* 8:10 ET {Diamond Selection}

New York/Arizona Under 8.5 6* 9:40

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA
#702: Warriors: -6.0 (-105) (0.5*)

MLB
#953/954 Reds/Phillies: Over 7.5 (+105) (1.5*)
DeSclafani/Harang

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ATSwins Lockclub
hockey last night they had 3 on Chic/ovr 5 for a loss making the hockey total 18-17-1

Hockey(18-17-1)
no game

B-ball (15-23-1) -32.4 units playoffs
4 Clev +6

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Chris James

Reds
Mets
Over KC

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OC Dooley

2 Units Mets -140

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Al DeMarco

10 Dime NBA Winner
Golden St Warriors

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Chris Jordan

400♦ NBA Playoff
FIRST-HALF TOTAL

Golden St Over First Half

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Anthony Redd

60 DIME

Cavs/Warriors Over

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Craig Davis

20 DIME Division Rivalry Lock

KC Royals

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Gabriel Dupont

80 Dime NBA Playoff Winner

Cavs

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Brad Wilton

50 Dime NBA Lock Total

Over Warrior/Cavs

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Jeff Benton

50 Dime Finals Lock

Golden St Warriors

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exclusive vip sports

8 MLB Washington Nationals ML (-123) $18,450 to win $15,000 (8%)
8 MLB Mets/Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-110) $16,500 to win $15,000 (8%)

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sports insights

LAD -103
CHW -105

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LT LOCK

Golden State -5-

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ALLEN EASTMAN – MLB

I was going to go with this as a 7-Unit Play today. But I have been off this week so I lowered this to a 4-Unit Play. I do really like this game.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 @Cleveland at Kansas City (8 p.m., Thursday, June 4) I will back two under-the-radar pitchers today. Chris Young has been great for the Royals this year. He has completely revitalized his career. Remember that he used to be a dominating starter in San Diego behind Jake Peavy. He has found that old form and has just a 1.55 ERA so far this year and a WHIP of just 0.86. Young Trevor Bauer is overlooked because of Corey Kluber. But he has been one of Cleveland’s best this year. He has just a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts and has had some success against Kansas City in the past. These two division rivals know how important this game is to clinch the series for one of them. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in Kansas City’s last 10 games and I expect another low-scoring game today. Play ‘under’

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GP From Vegas

NBA
Cavs/Warriors Under 204 -110

MLB
Royals-110
Nationals-110
Dodgers-105
Diamondbacks+130

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Goodfella

2* ARIZ D'backs +RL -135