UFN 74: Holloway vs Oliveira

[SPX]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/984.png

[SPX]

I'm thinking at those odds both Oliveira and Burkman are worth a play.

Granted, Holloway's destruction of Cub Swanson was unexpected and impressive (and it also cost me money), but Oliveira himself is on a 4 fight winning streak, including wins over Lentz, Stephens and Hioki. Maybe Oliveira should be the dog here, but I think the matchup is closer than the odds indicate.

As for Burkman, he's kind of had a rough time so far in the UFC but I think this is where he starts to turn things around. Lombard and DHK are a hard way to be welcomed into an organization, but I think the former WSOF champ and Fitch destroyer will be able to get the win over a washed up Pat Cote.

[Luke]

I'm thinking at those odds both Oliveira and Burkman are worth a play.

Granted, Holloway's destruction of Cub Swanson was unexpected and impressive (and it also cost me money), but Oliveira himself is on a 4 fight winning streak, including wins over Lentz, Stephens and Hioki. Maybe Oliveira should be the dog here, but I think the matchup is closer than the odds indicate.

As for Burkman, he's kind of had a rough time so far in the UFC but I think this is where he starts to turn things around. Lombard and DHK are a hard way to be welcomed into an organization, but I think the former WSOF champ and Fitch destroyer will be able to get the win over a washed up Pat Cote.

That's what I think. I think the dog probably loses but odds are too high for Holloway. I like Erik Silva. After watching Magny get raped by Maia, I realized how big of a bum he is. Silva is a bum too, but he usually beats other bums

I don't know what to think about Burkman-Cote.

[SPX]

That's what I think. I think the dog probably loses but odds are too high for Holloway. I like Erik Silva. After watching Magny get raped by Maia, I realized how big of a bum he is. Silva is a bum too, but he usually beats other bums

I don't know what to think about Burkman-Cote.

There you go throwing that "bum" word around. Oh Luke, some things never change.

I don't think you have to be a bum to get raped by Maia.

[Luke]

There you go throwing that "bum" word around. Oh Luke, some things never change.

I don't think you have to be a bum to get raped by Maia.


BOL!!! I never really stopped using the bum term


Silva has a decent ground game and Magny has almost zero TDD

[poopoo333]

HOLY SHIT.

WE ARE BACK

[SPX]

HOLY SHIT.

WE ARE BACK

BOL! We're working on it.

Zak contacted me. I thought about it. I decided to come back.

I actually started a recruitment drive today.

[poopoo333]

Ludo, post a pic.

[SPX]

I actually sent Ludo a PM on Sherdog today. We'll see if he responds.

[Luke]

Ludo, post a pic.


::lmao::


::lolzorz::::baghead::

[poopoo333]

As someone that has faded Silva a lot in the past...

Silva is my favorite bet on the card. Stylistically, I think he beats Magny easily. Magny doesn't have the style that makes Silva go into cardiac arrest by round 2

[poopoo333]

I like Burkman to beat Cote. Burkman's fight IQ worries me, but at the current line I'll be betting Burkman. I think he is a better striker than Cote and can/will keep it on the feet.

[Luke]

I like Burkman to beat Cote. Burkman's fight IQ worries me, but at the current line I'll be betting Burkman. I think he is a better striker than Cote and can/will keep it on the feet.

I know I say bum a lot, but this really is a bum fight. Having a lot of money on either guy would scare me to death

[SPX]

I know I say bum a lot, but this really is a bum fight. Having a lot of money on either guy would scare me to death

So Burkman taking the WSOF title and also beating Fitch means nothing?

[CriticalHit]

He really had quite a few squandered opportunities to turn around or even win the DHK fight. Cote's more durable and if Burkman has more brain farts then it's probably an easy Cote decision through wrestling. It's kinda strange to think of Burkman and Cote fighting in the UFC in 2015.

[SPX]

He really had quite a few squandered opportunities to turn around or even win the DHK fight. Cote's more durable and if Burkman has more brain farts then it's probably an easy Cote decision through wrestling. It's kinda strange to think of Burkman and Cote fighting in the UFC in 2015.

Hey, welcome to the forum! Cool username.

I really think Cote is shot as a fighter. That doesn't mean he can't win fights, but let's say if he and Fitch fought today I have little doubt Fitch would beat him. And I'm not trying to get MMAthematical up in here, but it just seems to me that Burkman is at a better place in his career and is experiencing something of a resurgence. Whereas Cote is getting soundly beaten by Cung Le, KOd by Sakara and has to rely on a robbery to beat Voelker.

But yeah, it is weird to think that these guys are facing off in the UFC in 2015.

[CriticalHit]

Hey, welcome to the forum! Cool username.

I really think Cote is shot as a fighter. That doesn't mean he can't win fights, but let's say if he and Fitch fought today I have little doubt Fitch would beat him. And I'm not trying to get MMAthematical up in here, but it just seems to me that Burkman is at a better place in his career and is experiencing something of a resurgence. Whereas Cote is getting soundly beaten by Cung Le, KOd by Sakara and has to rely on a robbery to beat Voelker.

But yeah, it is weird to think that these guys are facing off in the UFC in 2015.

Thanks, just dipping my toe in. I got invited by someone on another forum.

Anyways, Cote is def. over the hill. I agree with Voelker getting robbed and him basically being near out even before the Sakara hammerfists.

He also fights alot smarter now though. Mostly he sticks to grinding out fights with his wrestling and has dropped brawling completely. Burkman's a strange case. He was making great strides in his technique in his WSOF stint and had some solid wins, esp. the Fitch upset. What makes me less confident in him in this match up is his tendency to make mistakes and get complacent when he doesn't get the early finish and has to go through grueling clinch and ground work like against Carl and DHK. Cote is going to do his best to make this ugly and point score.

I'm not counting Burkman out, don't get me wrong. It just seems like a match up that can screw Josh with judging by leaving 2 rounds too up in the air by fighting Cote's fight. I'm pulling for him since a loss probably gets the axe again.

[Luke]

It's kinda strange to think of Burkman and Cote fighting in the UFC in 2015.


Ain't that the truth? Just think Cote fought for the UFC title once. No wonder Silva's reign was so long

And welcome to the place, man

[SPX]

Thanks, just dipping my toe in. I got invited by someone on another forum.

Well it's good to have you around. We're kind of in a re-building phase right now so good, thoughtful posters are exactly what we need. We should have a contest coming up pretty soon that should be fun and an opportunity win a bit of $ so stick around.



Anyways, Cote is def. over the hill. I agree with Voelker getting robbed and him basically being near out even before the Sakara hammerfists.

He also fights alot smarter now though. Mostly he sticks to grinding out fights with his wrestling and has dropped brawling completely. Burkman's a strange case. He was making great strides in his technique in his WSOF stint and had some solid wins, esp. the Fitch upset. What makes me less confident in him in this match up is his tendency to make mistakes and get complacent when he doesn't get the early finish and has to go through grueling clinch and ground work like against Carl and DHK. Cote is going to do his best to make this ugly and point score.

I'm not counting Burkman out, don't get me wrong. It just seems like a match up that can screw Josh with judging by leaving 2 rounds too up in the air by fighting Cote's fight. I'm pulling for him since a loss probably gets the axe again.

I agree that this is far from a lock for either guy. If Cote wins, I’m not exactly going to be shocked. But I do think the momentum is with Burkman at this point in their careers. Again, not to get MMAthematical, but I have a suspicion that Lombard would’ve killed Cote whereas Burkman was able to keep it fairly competitive thoughout.

You make some good points about Burkman getting caught in long, grinding wars and not responding well to that. That’s something to consider. I need to go back and watch his more recently fights.

[CriticalHit]

Ain't that the truth? Just think Cote fought for the UFC title once. No wonder Silva's reign was so long

And welcome to the place, man

MW has come a long way for sure.

Thanks
Well it's good to have you around. We're kind of in a re-building phase right now so good, thoughtful posters are exactly what we need. We should have a contest coming up pretty soon that should be fun and an opportunity win a bit of $ so stick around.




I agree that this is far from a lock for either guy. If Cote wins, I’m not exactly going to be shocked. But I do think the momentum is with Burkman at this point in their careers. Again, not to get MMAthematical, but I have a suspicion that Lombard would’ve killed Cote whereas Burkman was able to keep it fairly competitive thoughout.

You make some good points about Burkman getting caught in long, grinding wars and not responding well to that. That’s something to consider. I need to go back and watch his more recently fights.

Yeah, Burkman would have tossed Cote around the cage and gotten an eventual gnp stoppage I suspect esp. considering he was roided up.

[SPX]

Ain't that the truth? Just think Cote fought for the UFC title once. No wonder Silva's reign was so long



MW has come a long way for sure.


Ha, yeah. Funny to think that Marquardt, Cote and Leites were once the best the division had to offer as far as guys who weren't Anderson Silva. Now we have Weidman, Rockhold, Machida, Jacare, Romero, etc.

[CriticalHit]

I have to admit, Leites had me believing he might put a run together towards another title shot. I knew Bisping would be a rough matchup though with that constant movement, volume striking, and TDD(still a very competitive fight).

Nate is done and Cote will follow him before the end of 2016 I think.

[Luke]

Was just thinking: if you're going to take Oliveira, you may as well take him by sub. Its +325 vs +200. Oliveira only has one win that's not by sub in the last 5 years

[SPX]

I have to admit, Leites had me believing he might put a run together towards another title shot. I knew Bisping would be a rough matchup though with that constant movement, volume striking, and TDD(still a very competitive fight).

Nate is done and Cote will follow him before the end of 2016 I think.

I don't want to take anything away from Leites. He's been doing very well and has had a very successful late career resurgence. No idea where he goes from here but I suppose there's no reason to think he can't continue to win fights for at least a handful of years to come.

As for Nate, yeah, I think he's done. It's unfortunate. When I saw him destroy Woodley for the SF belt I was like, "Nate the Great is fucking BACK!" And now he's gone like 1-5 since then.

[SPX]

Was just thinking: if you're going to take Oliveira, you may as well take him by sub. Its +325 vs +200. Oliveira only has one win that's not by sub in the last 5 years

That's not a bad idea, especially against someone like Holloway who is primarily a striker.

[CriticalHit]

Was just thinking: if you're going to take Oliveira, you may as well take him by sub. Its +325 vs +200. Oliveira only has one win that's not by sub in the last 5 years

Yeah, that's by far the most likely way he wins. I'm still extremely impressed by the ground wizardry against Hioki. Hioki's UFC career def. didn't pan out well but submitting him is a huge feather to have in your cap.

Oliveira will do some funky things to get it to the ground too. I wouldn't be surprised if he started things off with a flying guard pull or a scissor sweep.

[poopoo333]

I won't bet big on Burkman/Cote at all. At most to win $100. Not the type of fight I will bet big on. Luke and I learned our lessons betting on...wait or it..

BUMS. (SORRY X)

I think Oliveira is the play after watching fights. His wrestling has came a long way. My biggest concern is how he tends to fold/quit when things get kind of rough. I really don't think he likes getting hit.

Best play on this fight IMO: Fight does not go distance. It's -300 but...fuck it.

[CriticalHit]

Oliveira def. has had a tendency to wilt in the past. He did fight on against Lentz in the rematch despite having trouble seeing and that was a grueling fight on the other hand.

[Ludo]

I like Burkman to beat Cote. Burkman's fight IQ worries me, but at the current line I'll be betting Burkman. I think he is a better striker than Cote and can/will keep it on the feet.

After the fight with Stungun I'd be very hesitant to play Burkman on anything. Dude had a clear advantage striking in that fight, and hurt Stungun every single round in standing exchanges, but insisted on trying to clinch with a guy who's entire game revolves around Judo trips an top control. And despite that, Josh still almost won that fight in a couple spots. Some people just can't be saved from themselves.

[Éire]

Tough card. I'd stay away from the Holloway fight unless you want to pick the favourite. I personally think Holloway handles Oliveira with ease.

[Luke]

Fight card starts an hour early this Saturday

Figh pass prelims start at 6pm eastern

Foxs Sports 1 prelims start at 7pm eastern

Main card on Fox Sports 1 starts a 9pm eastern

[poopoo333]

It's Sunday.

[Luke]

It's Sunday.


Jesus FUCK!! I didn't even realize that. Just ruined my plans for Saturday

[HeyBoone]

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/847545/2.gif

I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.

[HeyBoone]

That's what I think. I think the dog probably loses but odds are too high for Holloway. I like Erik Silva. After watching Magny get raped by Maia, I realized how big of a bum he is. Silva is a bum too, but he usually beats other bums

I don't know what to think about Burkman-Cote.

A bit rough on Magny here, dude is not even close to a bum but it's clear he needs A TON of work on his back. Silva still only has a real chance to win in Round 1, it's a great chance but it's still only one round. If Magny survives his length, angles and straight punches will make Silva wilt and Magny will pour it on late.

Again Silva has a GREAT chance to win early but that's it. His R1 prop is +250 but his ML is -170, doesn't make sense to me honestly. It's not a foregone conclusion but it's about as certain as anything can be in MMA it's Silva R1 or bust.


Oliveira def. has had a tendency to wilt in the past. He did fight on against Lentz in the rematch despite having trouble seeing and that was a grueling fight on the other hand.

Absolutely true BUT despite losing the second round to Lentz it was due to grappling so at least Oliveira got to work his game a bit. That would be a bit different if he was on the feet getting tagged for a full round instead. I think if he has to stay on the feet he will get much more discouraged fighting Holloway rather than losing a grappling round with Lentz. I could just be making shit up though!

[Luke]

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/847545/2.gif

I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.

Nice breakdown, and welcome to the forum.


I agree with the Oliveira sub prop. Its the only path to victory for him, imo. I really think the best bet in the fight is fight doesn't go the distance at -300. Oliveira is going to get KO'd/TKO'd from the neverending strikes, or get caught in a sub. The only reason I wouldn't pound Holloway here is you don't know if he's going to make a mistake. He's young...young fighters make mistakes. He could win 2 rounds and start to get cocky and get caught. I don't want to lay -240 and have to hold my breath for several rounds as Oliveira keeps trying to pull off a sub

Calling Magny a bum...dont mind me, I call a lot of people bums. If you noticed, I call Silva one also.

Silva would have lost to Story, imo. Silva wilts to pressure and that's all Story does. If Silva is smart( no one said he is), he goes straight for the takedown in this fight and grapples Magny until he submits him....which I think he does in this fight.

I believe you mean the over is juiced in this fight...which is weird. I don't know what to think about that to be honest.


I thought Holloway/Oliveira being only 1.5 was odd, also. Expected it to be around 2.5

[SPX]

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:

http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/847545/2.gif

I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.


Hell of a write up, Boone. I more or less agree with all of what you said. Looks like you play a lot of props. I'd be curious to hear about how that works out for you. I've always had bad luck with with those.

[SPX]

A bit rough on Magny here, dude is not even close to a bum but it's clear he needs A TON of work on his back.

Oh, don't mind him. Luke thinks that anyone outside of the top 5 is a bum.

[HeyBoone]

Hell of a write up, Boone. I more or less agree with all of what you said. Looks like you play a lot of props. I'd be curious to hear about how that works out for you. I've always had bad luck with with those.

I try to play more straight money line bets than anything else since I found that to be the most effective way to make money in the long run but sometimes I'm in a position where I don't like anything other than some prop bets.

I do like the value of all of the Overs that I selected and thought it would be fun to do a round robin like I did for the last event with great success.

Get used to my long winded breakdowns, I tend to get a little carried away at times.

Last event I played the same round robin on these 4 lines:

Kakai/Saenz O 2.5
Camozzi/Watson O 2.5
Holtzman/Christodoulou O 1.5
Rosholt/Johnson O 1.5

Can't recall the exact lines and too lazy to look it up but I risked 10u and returned just over 25u. Fights that I contemplated for this round robin were the overs on McMann/Nunes (2.5) and Brunson/Alvey (2.5) but ultimately I thought they were risky and might finish early so I avoided those lines and sure enough those fights wound up being finished!

Still no props on my current books (BM and SI) so I will wait and post again once I take a few of those props and finalize my bets.

[SPX]

Good luck with everything. Like I said, in my experience, props have always backfired. I'll have a guy who hasn't finished a fight in 5 years and I'll bet him to win by decision and then he'll get a KO. Shit like that. It's happened so many times I've just kind of been scared away.

[Luke]

Good luck with everything. Like I said, in my experience, props have always backfired. I'll have a guy who hasn't finished a fight in 5 years and I'll bet him to win by decision and then he'll get a KO. Shit like that. It's happened so many times I've just kind of been scared away.


Pussy

[HeyBoone]

Meh you're still just playing the odds. Even if a guy only has a 10% chance to win by KO that chance is still there. Value is value and if you only make bets that you believe have value and you are a good capper then you will win in the long run. Like Shields will never get a KO but there is still the chance and if you bet him by decision and he winds up getting a KO that could just be the 1/10 (example) outcome of that fight. Just because one thing happens doesn't necessarily mean that your bet was wrong.

You probably know this but it's nice to remember that "shit happens" and you never truly know. Getting burned on shit like that is pretty brutal though.

There are infinite ways a fight can play out and we only ever get to see one of them and we just have to make our best guess as to how those infinite possibilities translate into the final outcome of the fight. At least that's what I say to myself to stop me from pulling my hair out.

[SPX]

Pussy

BOL! Now that Luke has discovered spoiler tags he is like a kid in a candy store.

[Luke]

BOL! Now that Luke has discovered spoiler tags he is like a kid in a candy store.

Bol! They are kind of nice.

This forum has came a long way. When I started here, you had to HTML your own posts instead of tags

[HeyBoone]

People always talk about "hometown advantage' when it comes to judges and use this to influence their bets. Here is some data I pulled:

From 2014 up until the last event I checked out all of the split decisions in the UFC only. I bring this up because there are a lot of Canadians fighting in Canada this weekend. I personally don't take this into account but some so.

DISCLAIMER: A split decision loser on home turf does not necessarily mean that they got robbed, they could have only won on one judge because of favouritism that didn't quite work out. These stats don't show the full picture because a split decision doesn't mean the loser was robbed every single time, often they are the right decision.

of the 44 fights where there was a clear hometown fighter, in 21 of those fights the winner was the hometown guy. In the other 23 fights the foreigner ended up winning the split decisions.

Obviously there were also unanimous decisions that were terrible decisions but it was just easier to get split decision data from MMADecisions.com and I'm too lazy to do any more.

Here is the raw data I used


Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Winner Loser Place
Catone (NJ) Watson (UK) NJ
Trinaldo (BRA) Ronson (CAN) BRA
Alcantara (BRA) Tumenov (RUS) BRA
Chavez (USA) Cedeno (CUB) USA
Davis (CAN) Eye (USA) USA
Andrade (BRA) Pennington (USA) USA
Garcia (DOM) Spencer (USA) USA
Stringer (NL) Barroso (BRA) BRA
Bocek (CAN) Torre (USA) CAN
Jingliang (CHI) Michaud (USA) USA
Perralta (USA) Bezerra (BRA) BRA
Letourneau (CAN) Phillips (USA) CAN
Guimaraes (BRA) Enz (USA) USA
Ellenberger (USA) Moontasri (GER) USA
Hester (USA) Neto (BRA) USA
Santos (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Lee (USA) Ronson (CAN) USA
Wee (SIN) Zhikui (CHI) CHI
Natal (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Tibau (BRA) Hallma (POL) BRA
Kang (KOR) Tanaka (***) ***
Kunimoto (***) Walsh (USA) ***
Taleb (CAN) Jingliang (CHI) CAN
Felder (USA) Saggo (CAN) CAN
Story (USA) Nelson (ICE) SWE
Elkins (USA) Martins (BRA BRA
Silva (BRA) Edwards (ENG) BRA
Camus (USA) Pickett (ENG) USA
Means (USA) Alexandre (BRA) BRA
Sanchez (USA) Matsuda (***) USA
Martins (BRA) Khabilov (RUS) BRA
Lazaro (BRA) Krause (USA) USA
Noke (AUS) Webb (USA) AUS
Makashvili (GOR) Eddiva (PHI) PHI
Natal (BRA) Hall (USA) USA
Dalby (DEN) Santos (BRA) BRA
Trinaldo (BRA) Parke (IRE) BRA
Collier (USA) Abreu (BRA) USA
Rodriguez (MEX) Rosa (USA) MEX
Howard (USA) Pendred (IRE) USA
Bisping (ENG) Leites (BRA) SCO
Dariush (IRN) Johnson (USA) USA

[Mr. IWS]

Bol! They are kind of nice.

This forum has came a long way. When I started here, you had to HTML your own posts instead of tags

the old phpBB forum!

[SPX]

Meh you're still just playing the odds. Even if a guy only has a 10% chance to win by KO that chance is still there. Value is value and if you only make bets that you believe have value and you are a good capper then you will win in the long run. Like Shields will never get a KO but there is still the chance and if you bet him by decision and he winds up getting a KO that could just be the 1/10 (example) outcome of that fight. Just because one thing happens doesn't necessarily mean that your bet was wrong.

You probably know this but it's nice to remember that "shit happens" and you never truly know. Getting burned on shit like that is pretty brutal though.

There are infinite ways a fight can play out and we only ever get to see one of them and we just have to make our best guess as to how those infinite possibilities translate into the final outcome of the fight. At least that's what I say to myself to stop me from pulling my hair out.


I guess, for me, I just have a hard time determining the odds of someone getting a KO or not getting a KO or the fight going to a decision or the fight going over 1.5 rounds and what have you.

Either that or supernatural forces are conspiring against me, which is an explanation I sometimes tend to lean toward.

[SPX]

People always talk about "hometown advantage' when it comes to judges and use this to influence their bets. Here is some data I pulled:

From 2014 up until the last event I checked out all of the split decisions in the UFC only. I bring this up because there are a lot of Canadians fighting in Canada this weekend. I personally don't take this into account but some so.

DISCLAIMER: A split decision loser on home turf does not necessarily mean that they got robbed, they could have only won on one judge because of favouritism that didn't quite work out. These stats don't show the full picture because a split decision doesn't mean the loser was robbed every single time, often they are the right decision.

of the 44 fights where there was a clear hometown fighter, in 21 of those fights the winner was the hometown guy. In the other 23 fights the foreigner ended up winning the split decisions.

Obviously there were also unanimous decisions that were terrible decisions but it was just easier to get split decision data from MMADecisions.com and I'm too lazy to do any more.

Here is the raw data I used


Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Winner Loser Place
Catone (NJ) Watson (UK) NJ
Trinaldo (BRA) Ronson (CAN) BRA
Alcantara (BRA) Tumenov (RUS) BRA
Chavez (USA) Cedeno (CUB) USA
Davis (CAN) Eye (USA) USA
Andrade (BRA) Pennington (USA) USA
Garcia (DOM) Spencer (USA) USA
Stringer (NL) Barroso (BRA) BRA
Bocek (CAN) Torre (USA) CAN
Jingliang (CHI) Michaud (USA) USA
Perralta (USA) Bezerra (BRA) BRA
Letourneau (CAN) Phillips (USA) CAN
Guimaraes (BRA) Enz (USA) USA
Ellenberger (USA) Moontasri (GER) USA
Hester (USA) Neto (BRA) USA
Santos (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Lee (USA) Ronson (CAN) USA
Wee (SIN) Zhikui (CHI) CHI
Natal (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Tibau (BRA) Hallma (POL) BRA
Kang (KOR) Tanaka (***) ***
Kunimoto (***) Walsh (USA) ***
Taleb (CAN) Jingliang (CHI) CAN
Felder (USA) Saggo (CAN) CAN
Story (USA) Nelson (ICE) SWE
Elkins (USA) Martins (BRA BRA
Silva (BRA) Edwards (ENG) BRA
Camus (USA) Pickett (ENG) USA
Means (USA) Alexandre (BRA) BRA
Sanchez (USA) Matsuda (***) USA
Martins (BRA) Khabilov (RUS) BRA
Lazaro (BRA) Krause (USA) USA
Noke (AUS) Webb (USA) AUS
Makashvili (GOR) Eddiva (PHI) PHI
Natal (BRA) Hall (USA) USA
Dalby (DEN) Santos (BRA) BRA
Trinaldo (BRA) Parke (IRE) BRA
Collier (USA) Abreu (BRA) USA
Rodriguez (MEX) Rosa (USA) MEX
Howard (USA) Pendred (IRE) USA
Bisping (ENG) Leites (BRA) SCO
Dariush (IRN) Johnson (USA) USA


Hmm, that's pretty interesting. I have often wondered how much fighting at home really helps from a judging perspective. According to your data here, it doesn't seem like a lot. Though I'll tell you, down in Brazil, it really seem at times like judges lose their minds.

[Luke]

Hmm, that's pretty interesting. I have often wondered how much fighting at home really helps from a judging perspective. According to your data here, it doesn't seem like a lot. Though I'll tell you, down in Brazil, it really seem at times like judges lose their minds.

Khabib 30-27 x 3 against Tibau in Brazil would say there's no Brazil bias. I really don't think there is a bias. Its just something people say to explain loses

[BetMMA]

Jesus FUCK!! I didn't even realize that. Just ruined my plans for Saturday

I did the same. Nearly started a twitter ad campaign for "tonight's UFC" until I realised it wasn't even today :P

I think this is a card for betting the overs. I'm not confident enough to really tip anything for this event but these are my personal bets. Was also tempted by Sam Stout cos I think Perez is a poor fighter... but Stout's very limited too.

1009

[Troublesome]

I picked Holloway by late TKO, but I think Oliveira has a very good chance to get the sub; he's the most crafty submission guy in the UFC imo, and can catch anyone. His striking has gotten better, and his wrestling has also improved immensely. Should be a great fight.

[SPX]

Glad to see we have someone here who gives Oliveira at least SOME chance to win this one. Up until this point I've been alone. But yeah, I agree with everything you say. Perhaps Holloway should be favored, but Oliveira is live here.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

The biggest toss-up fights, IMO, are Holloway/Oliveira, and Magny/Silva

Either Max keeps it standing and KOs Do Bronx, or Do Bronx gets the TD and subs Max, I don't see it any other way.

With Silve/Magny, it all depends if Magny survives the first-round onslaught. If he does, He takes the decision from a gassed Erick Silva.

[Troublesome]

Definitely. I think -200 for Oliveira is reasonable though. The guy looked sharp in there against Lentz; his knees and clinch work looked excellent. The thing is that Holloway won't be stationary or just moving forward on one axis- he'll be moving in and out, laterally, switching stances, etc., and I think that will make it difficult for Oliveira's straight up MT attack to be effective. He'll have to get it to the ground somehow or consistently get a clinch.

[SPX]

I guess tonight we find out if Holloway is really that much improved or if he's just been on a good run. While he has been looking great lately, he also has only a few notable wins. He beat Miller and Swanson, which are good wins. But every other "name" has has fought he has lost to -- Poirier, Bermudez, McGregor . . . and like I said earlier, I really believe he lost to Garcia.

Oliveira on the other hand is also on a run and in his last three fights he beat Lentz, Stephens and Hioki.

[Troublesome]

The biggest toss-up fights, IMO, are Holloway/Oliveira, and Magny/Silva

Either Max keeps it standing and KOs Do Bronx, or Do Bronx gets the TD and subs Max, I don't see it any other way.

With Silve/Magny, it all depends if Magny survives the first-round onslaught. If he does, He takes the decision from a gassed Erick Silva.

Agreed for Holloway/Oliveira, and mostly for Magny/Silva- but Erick looked like shit at the weigh-ins; not drained, but soft. Something's up with him.

[Troublesome]

I guess tonight we find out if Holloway is really that much improved or if he's just been on a good run. While he has been looking great lately, he also has only a few notable wins. He beat Miller and Swanson, which are good wins. But every other "name" has has fought he has lost to -- Poirier, Bermudez, McGregor . . . and like I said earlier, I really believe he lost to Garcia.

Oliveira on the other hand is also on a run and in his last three fights he beat Lentz, Stephens and Hioki.

Oliveira's wins are arguably of better quality than Holloway's, despite the streak-length. Stopping Cub was pretty impressive though. Could be close but Holloway should win just by the style matchup.

[SPX]

Agreed for Holloway/Oliveira, and mostly for Magny/Silva- but Erick looked like shit at the weigh-ins; not drained, but soft. Something's up with him.

I know a lot of people seem to think he's cycled off the juice.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Hopefully Cirkunov is the new prospect LHW needs

[SPX]

Hopefully Cirkunov is the new prospect LHW needs

What do you know about this guy? Honestly, I had never even heard of him until I pulled up BFO today.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

What do you know about this guy? Honestly, I had never even heard of him until I pulled up BFO today.

I knew he has lot of finishes. That performance he just put on, was excellent.

[Luke]

Hopefully Cirkunov is the new prospect LHW needs

Looked just okay on feet. Short notice guys usually gas quick. Wonder what he looks like against a decent fighter

[SPX]

Sadly I am at work and not yet able to watch.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Looked just okay on feet. Short notice guys usually gas quick. Wonder what he looks like against a decent fighter

Obviously, he wasn't up against a top contender, but he showed he has tricks up his sleeve. I'll keep my eye out for him.

[Luke]

Sadly I am at work and not yet able to watch.

Its 6pm on a Sunday...you need to get your priorites in order

[Troublesome]

Obviously, he wasn't up against a top contender, but he showed he has tricks up his sleeve. I'll keep my eye out for him.

He showed a nice ground game and takedowns from the clinch. His striking was a bit stiff but he kicks and knees looked pretty good. Could be a guy to look out for. He beat decent guys on the regional scene.

[SPX]

Its 6pm on a Sunday...you need to get your priorites in order

I agree. They just recently started me on this gay Sun-Th shit.

It's not without its advantages though. On Sundays I'm the only one here and can basically just dick off most of the day. Most of the time I kick things off with a movie.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Glad they scored it for Campbell; Silverio was just stalling.

[Troublesome]

Yup, 29-28 was the correct score. Campbell's grappling and TDD were surprisingly good. Silverio is a huge LW.

[Éire]

WHAT? THAT DECISION. WHAT?

[SPX]

Well, glad I didn't bet Beal. I came very close to doing so.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

I thought Beal edged it, but I can see the judges point of view.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Just Bleed God smiles upon Krylov. Hoping for something brutal.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Krylov never disappoints

[Luke]

Well, glad I didn't bet Beal. I came very close to doing so.

Wasn't paying attention, but a lot of people think he won

[Luke]

Krylov never disappoints

1 hour for 1 fight. Gonna be a lot of dead time coming up

[poopoo333]

I bet against Beal.

I can't believe I won that bet. I thought it was 29-28 Beal pretty clearly.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Late mention, but Arantes' armbar was slick!

I have Stout winning via decision, but you never know, with that chin.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Sam is done...

[Luke]

Stout

http://37.media.tumblr.com/91b05eeeceff90169f57a9c67d56de19/tumblr_mt8wwkvfXg1sin6fio1_500.gif

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Stout is done, yet it is Perez who retires. Twist of the century.

[Luke]

Stout is done, yet it is Perez who retires. Twist of the century.

No clue what Perez was thinking

[SPX]

Sad about Stout. Dude's been in the game a long time. Respect.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

R.I.P. Moroz' hype-train

[SPX]

Letourneau clearly won but Moroz was game and kept fighting. Gotta give her credit for that.

[BetMMA]

Val was up at +235. I cashed out my initial +170 bet on her after the weigh ins but it turned out she just weighed in again back stange in her birthday suit and made weight, so I got back on at +225. Nervy fight, particularly with the triangle in R3 but that line was totally wrong :)

[SPX]

Val was up at +235. I cashed out my initial +170 bet on her after the weigh ins but it turned out she just weighed in again back stange in her birthday suit and made weight, so I got back on at +225. Nervy fight, particularly with the triangle in R3 but that line was totally wrong :)

There's a lot of talk these days about the oddsmakers being too sharp but we're often reminded that there is still a lot of value out there if you know how to see it.

[BetMMA]

There's a lot of talk these days about the oddsmakers being too sharp but we're often reminded that there is still a lot of value out there if you know how to see it.

In this instance the odds makers weren't that far off (Val opened at +130) but the public were wrong cos they were all over that ridiculous #8 ranking and the fact Moroz was calling out the champ. She'd done absolutely nothing of note before that win against JoJo, who herself is slightly overrated and who was coming into that fight with some personal issues. For me the size difference was the key in the fight and the lack of wrestling for Moroz. I like scouting and betting on women's MMA cos people know a lot less about it. :)

[Ludo]

There's a lot of talk these days about the oddsmakers being too sharp but we're often reminded that there is still a lot of value out there if you know how to see it.

Kind of hard to dispute that the game has become more difficult as opposed to just a few years ago.

[SPX]

Kind of hard to dispute that the game has become more difficult as opposed to just a few years ago.

I'm not going to say it's not harder. But some people act like you just can't win consistently anymore.

I'm just saying that there's always going to be a way to make money, just like how betting on sports like football and basketball has been around forever and people still find a way to make money there as well.

[SPX]

All right, time to see if I'm right about Cote being more washed up than Burkman.

[SPX]

Where the fuck is everybody BTW? I have to say, I am not impressed by the turn out for the first event since the IWS resurrection.

[SPX]

Edman

[SPX]

Damn.

[poopoo333]

Here.

[SPX]

Well now there's two of us.

The fuck are all our new people at?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Yo, I'm still here.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Still in awe of Cote wrecking Burkman, that was awesome

[SPX]

Magny looks too big for Silva.

[SPX]

Still in awe of Cote wrecking Burkman, that was awesome

I didn't care for it one bit. But I'm glad you were impressed.

[SPX]

Instant regret for not betting Magny.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Magny via late GNP

[SPX]

Well, maybe not.

[SPX]

Why does Bookmaker even offer live betting if they're just going to freeze the lines?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Silva getting grapple-fucked.

[SPX]

Yep. Looks there was a lot of potential to win some money on Magny here.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Silva has nothing left.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Yep. Looks there was a lot of potential to win some money on Magny here.

People were calling Magny a can. He's not, Maia's just that good.

[SPX]

People are always running their fucking mouths. You know what they say, you're only as good as your last fight. Win and you're a title contender, lose and you should retire.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

I'm surprised, that was a close round.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

People are always running their fucking mouths. You know what they say, you're only as good as your last fight. Win and you're a title contender, lose and you should retire.

Silva went up in weight and wrecked Bonnar. He loses to Weidman in his next fight, and all of a sudden, "He's old" "Out of his prime", and all that. Just stupid.

[SPX]

Yeah. It's retarded. But that's just the way people think.

In fact, if you're past 35, you can be fighting better than you ever have in your career but you're still washed up, past your prime, etc.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

29-28: Magny.

[SPX]

And there it is. Should've put the money I put on Burkman on Magny.

[Ludo]

Yeah. It's retarded. But that's just the way people think.

In fact, if you're past 35, you can be fighting better than you ever have in your career but you're still washed up, past your prime, etc.

Just look at Hendo. People called for him to retire after the Mousasi fight. Then he goes out there and straight murders Boetsch's face.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Just look at Hendo. People called for him to retire after the Mousasi fight. Then he goes out there and straight murders Boetsch's face.

Boetsch helped Hendo out with that one, he pretty-much ran into it, face-first, lmao

[SPX]

Yeah, and there are plenty of examples of guys looking like they're done and then getting their shit together and going on winning streaks. Hell, Cote is himself a good example of this.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Really like both guys, but I think Holloway gets the TKO in this one.

[SPX]

I really don't want to go 0-2 tonight so just call me the captain of the Oliveira warwagon.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Yeah, and there are plenty of examples of guys looking like they're done and then getting their shit together and going on winning streaks. Hell, Cote is himself a good example of this.

Even Mir is on a streak right now, and one more win gets him to the title shot. It's crazy, but that's why I love MMA. Anything can happen.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

I really don't want to go 0-2 tonight so just call me the captain of the Oliveira warwagon.

I'll go crazy if Do Bronx lands a flying armbar outta nowhere.

[SPX]

Do we even know why he's called Do Bronx, BTW?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Do we even know why he's called Do Bronx, BTW?

It means "The Ghetto". Because, apparently, when he used to go to his gym, they'd say "Oh, no, it's the boy from the ghetto!"

[SPX]

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

It's currently 4:46AM, but I am PUMPED for this one!

[SPX]

4:46 AM? The fuck are you at?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

4:46 AM? The fuck are you at?

England, lol.

[SPX]

The fuck just happened? I was sending a text and look up and it's over?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

WHAT THE FUCK

[SPX]

England, lol.

Damn, no shit. Well hello from America.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

He just... dropped

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Damn, no shit. Well hello from America.

Hello, from England, lol

[SPX]

That was fucking bullshit.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Should be a NC and an immediate rematch. Imagine if he gets a title shot from that?

[SPX]

That's what I was thinking, NC, but it won't happen.

[Éire]

That's what I was thinking, NC, but it won't happen.

Excuses already, I see. Got any creative ideas for your sig?

[KhabibTheBeagle]

That's what I was thinking, NC, but it won't happen.

I can see the hype now "Max is on a 7-fight wn-streak, including a 1st-round stoppage of Charles Oliveira"

That's really fucked up.

[SPX]

Excuses already, I see. Got any creative ideas for your sig?BOL. I'll let you come up with something.

[SPX]

I can see the hype now "Max is on a 7-fight wn-streak, including a 1st-round stoppage of Charles Oliveira"That's really fucked up.Yep, that's how hype trains go. Well . . . that sucks. I guess there's no much we can do about it though.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

Yep, that's how hype trains go. Well . . . that sucks. I guess there's no much we can do about it though.

Feel bad for Oliveira. 4 wins in a row down the drain.

[Éire]

BOL. I'll let you come up with something.

Since the conditions of the win were pretty sketchy, I'll go light.

"Oliveira lost fair and square. Anybody that says otherwise is delusional. I was silly to doubt the wisdom of Éire."

Without the quotations, por favor.

[SPX]

Yeah. Two contenders facing off to see which one advances one step closer to a title shot and this is how things all down. All that training, all that focus, all that desire . . . and it was all for nothing.

[Luke]

In this instance the odds makers weren't that far off (Val opened at +130) but the public were wrong cos they were all over that ridiculous #8 ranking and the fact Moroz was calling out the champ. She'd done absolutely nothing of note before that win against JoJo, who herself is slightly overrated and who was coming into that fight with some personal issues. For me the size difference was the key in the fight and the lack of wrestling for Moroz. I like scouting and betting on women's MMA cos people know a lot less about it. :)

Laprise went from -190 to -460. Way worse public line movement

Never lay more than -200 on a women not named Rousey

[Luke]

Yeah. Two contenders facing off to see which one advances one step closer to a title shot and this is how things all down. All that training, all that focus, all that desire . . . and it was all for nothing.

I wanna see a rematch. No reason not to have one

[SPX]

Since the conditions of the win were pretty sketchy, I'll go light.


Oh, well thank you. Eire the Merciful.

All right, done.

[SPX]

Well on that deflating and depressing note, I'm out of here guys. See y'all tomorrow.

[Éire]

Oh, well thank you. Eire the Merciful.

All right, done.

Hahaha, I feel like a dick doing this. But at the same time, it's pretty comical. Sorry, man. I'll take a dog next time.

[SPX]

Hahaha, I feel like a dick doing this. But at the same time, it's pretty comical. Sorry, man. I'll take a dog next time.

Well, that's how the game goes.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

I wanna see a rematch. No reason not to have one

We need closure for this. Oliveira deserves another shot, not to be pushed to the back of the line, as though he's a bum.

[CriticalHit]

Oh I didn't know this was also the live discussion topic. I glanced on here earlier and didn't see one labeled for live discussion so I went on to another place.

[SPX]

Oh I didn't know this was also the live discussion topic. I glanced on here earlier and didn't see one labeled for live discussion so I went on to another place.

In the past we've tended to have a small group chatting during events. It will probably take a few weeks for all that to come together again. But tonight was a start.

[KhabibTheBeagle]

I'll definitely be back for the next fight card discussion, and I'll visit during the week. Need to go to bed, now, gotta' be up in 4 hours.

[Luke]

I'll definitely be back for the next fight card discussion, and I'll visit during the week. Need to go to bed, now, gotta' be up in 4 hours.


Later man

[CriticalHit]

Yeah, I'll catch the UFC 191 topic next time.

Disappointing end tonight but a few nice upsets and some exciting fights. I just wish TV card pacing wasn't excruciating.

[Luke]

Oh I didn't know this was also the live discussion topic. I glanced on here earlier and didn't see one labeled for live discussion so I went on to another place.

Once the fights start, discussion is over, so we just use the same thread

[HeyBoone]

...And I got murdered lol.

[SPX]

...And I got murdered lol.

It happens, man. I just had two bets--Burkman and Oliveira--and that was just money down the drain. There's always the next event.

[BetMMA]

And there it is. Should've put the money I put on Burkman on Magny.

I bailed on Burkman before I went to bed and cashed out... Woke up this morning and watched the fight with a sigh relief :P Had it going to a decision though so not all good!

[Luke]

I've come to the conclusion that Burkman's win over Fitch was a complete fluke.

He's lost 4 of 5 since then

[Luke]

Esophagus tear forced Charles Oliveira's early UFC Fight Night 74 exit (http://mmajunkie.com/2015/08/ufc-esophagus-tear-forced-charles-oliveiras-early-ufc-fight-night-74-exit)

The huh?

And how good is Demain Maia?