12-21-15

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::handshake::

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Ben Burns football

NFL main event - det/saints over

Bowl game blue chip total - wky/so fla under

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StatFox Super Situations

NHL | WINNIPEG at EDMONTON
Play On - Home teams against the money line (EDMONTON) off 2 consecutive road losses by 2 goals or more, with a losing record
49-24 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.1% | 28.1 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CHARLOTTE at HOUSTON
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )

NBA | INDIANA at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games
116-46 since 1997. ( 71.6% | 48.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.0 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at LA CLIPPERS
Play On - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (LA CLIPPERS) after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more
88-45 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 38.5 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

CBB | E KENTUCKY at W VIRGINIA
Play On - Underdogs of 20 or more points (E KENTUCKY) good free throw shooting team - making >=72% of their free throws, poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season
84-42 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 37.8 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

CBB | SANTA CLARA at PACIFIC
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (SANTA CLARA) after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% | 37.1 units )

CBB | SAN FRANCISCO at ST MARYS-CA
Play Against - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (ST MARYS-CA) in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (>=20/game), after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Bills on Sunday and likes Providence on Monday.

The deficit is 1314 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo knows Best!

Hondo again maintained his preeminent, but precarious, position atop the tightly contested Best Bets standings by going 2-1 to stay a half-game ahead of soon-to-be fading Steve Serby. Since he is former author of the Mr. Loser column, Mr. Aitch isn’t feeling terribly threatened.

Saints over Lions: Here’s an excellent opportunity to get out there and mingle with the hostile crowds for some last-minute shopping. A little irritation is nothing compared to the torture of watching this three-hour stinkfest.

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Power play wins

nba: Oklahoma City thunder -2

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211 W. Kentucky -2.5 (-110) Pinnacle (http://cappersmall2.com/lines.php) vs 212 South Florida Analysis: Simon Best Bet #2
2* Western Kentucky

Good Luck - Simon

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MVP Lock Club

Lock Of The Day

NFL: New Orleans Saints -3

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Jeff barone sports
nba- oklahoma city -1.5 la clippers (1030pm)
ncaab- notre dame -24.5 youngstown state (7pm)
nhl- columbus / pittsburgh over 5.5 +105 (730pm)

PATRICK DAME- "The Numbers Guru"
NBA- SAN ANTONIO -8.5 INDIANA (830PM)
NCAAB- OREGON -6.5 ALABAMA (9PM)
NCAAB- USC -21 SIU EDWARDSVILLE (11PM)


David mires system
nfl- detroit/new orelans over 51.5 (830pm)
nba- orlando +2.5 new york (730pm)
nba- boston -8.5 minnesota (730pm)
ncaab- eastern kentucky / west virgina under 161.5 (7pm)


Simon- the soccer guy
hockey:
No selections today
soccer:
England - premier league (under 2.5 +125) manchester city @ arsenal fc (3pm)

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Brandon Lang
100 Dime Major Wager GOY
USF

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PAUL LEINER

100* Western Kentucky -2.5
NCAABB

100* Houston -2
100* Cal Irvine -10

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Here are the upcoming system bet(s):



Portland {C} bet - This is a confirmed official bet only if Damian Lillard is playing. If he isn't then this is an unofficial bet.


Now, keep in mind the following points for our NBA system bets:


- Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)


- Remember to purchase 3 points for the team you're betting on.

Good luck,
The "Champ" Team

[golden contender]

Monday night Football 96% Super system 2- 100% angles. NCAAB Double Perfect RPI Stimulation model and a big NBA Blowout system are up. NFL Goes 5-2 Sunday cashing the big one. NBA 19-9 run. Free Beach Bowl play below


The Miami bowl system Play is on South Florida at 2:30 eastern. In this game we are playing against rested bowl favorites of less than7off a home favored win and cover and prior home win vs a team like USF that comes in off a road win. Another statistical indicator that applies is for small bowl dogs that have the rushing advantage on both sides of the ball. Western Kentucky has lost both bowl games and Conference USA teams have lost 6 of 8 vs MAC Conference teams. South Florida has won 5 of 6 all time in the series and have covered 5 of 6 vs fellow bowl teams. USF has won their last 3 bowl games and has covered 9 straight on grass. Coach Taggart has covered 16 of 20 as a fog off a win. Take the points with South Florida. On Monday night Football there is a 96% long term system play that has 2 Undefeated angles. In the NBA Its s 100% Blowout system with 7 strong indicators. In NCAAB its a Double Perfect RPI Scale simulation model. NFL Cashes 5 of 7 on Sunday nailing another big. Jump on now and start the week big. For the Miami Beach Bowl we will take the 2-3 points with South Florida. GC

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Chris Jordan

MONDAY

My 400♦ Winner is on the NEW YORK KNICKS against the visiting Orlando Magic. And as I release this play at 8 a.m. pacific, the line is Knicks -2' points.

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Frank Patron

20,000 Unit NFL Lock


Detroit Lions +3 over New Orleans

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Jack Jones

NFL
25* Lions/Saints Over 50.5

NCAAF
15* South Florida +2.5

NBA
15* Jazz -4

NCAAB
15* Houston -2

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King Creole:
2* DET/NO OVER 51

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Northcoast

2* NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over Detroit 8:30 pm ESPN
Top Opinion:
Monday Night Marquee: OVER 51.5 New Orleans/Detroit 8:30 pm ESPN
Regular Opinion:
USF +3 over WKU 2:30 pm ESPN (Miami Beach Bowl)
Had to Pick’em:
Marquee SINGLE OVER 67 Miami Beach Bowl (Usf-Wku) 2:30 pm

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Cal sports
5* bowl best bet western kentcukly

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Jason Sharpe NHL




Monday December 21st 2015-

3 Unit Play Take #1 Anaheim +115 over New York Islanders (7:05pm est):

The Islanders are on that tough spot I love to bet against, a team returning home after playing out west with only one day off in between. This is a team struggling right now and who lost a key player over the weekend to an injury. They've been overvalued a bit all year as well and are again here at this price also.

The Ducks are the much better team in the advanced stats number I use and getting plus juice here is excellent value. This is a very talented team who hasn't got many breaks this year yet as they come in having outshot 6 of their last 7 foes.

Take Anaheim in this one. Big 6 unit NBA Game of the Month selection on tap in pro hoops. Great spot play with a team needing a win badly and in a low spread game which I excel in. Join me and build up that bankroll for the bowl season.

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Alan Boston:
Houston U -2

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Wiseguy Insider

Insider Play Of The Day

NFL: New Orleans Saints -3

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Nsa
MONDAY PICKS(NSA "THE LEGEND")
25* NFL Saints -2.5
20* NFL Saints under 52
20* CFB Western Kentucky -2.5
10* CFB Western Kentucky over 68
10* CBB Gonzaga -10
5* CBB Creighton -20

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WAYNE ROOT

Millionaires---Detroit

The Lions are definitely out. A ten-fold miracle is needed for the Saints. Which means they're playing dead to the playoffs also. Detroit has responded better in their past five games. Lions QB Stafford has been much better in the past five games after a disappointing opening eight games. Before the bye, Stafford had thrown 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Since then, he's thrown another 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Games like this are played to serve 40% of the players a shot at making a roster next season. Stafford should continue to be impressive against the Saints. There's no reason with the talent on this team not to have an easy win. The Saints pass defense is the worst in the league, and this is pretty much indisputable. Every quarterback has thrown for a passer rating of 80 or more, and each opponent has either matched or surpassed their yearly average at QB ranking. Forget about Calvin Johnson highlights tonight, Theo Reddick will be the heading up Sports Center. The Lions have also doubled their rushing attack having four straight games of rushing for over 100 yards. Note that the Saints run defense is on that negative par with their pass defense. Drew Bree's can still light up the Saints offense. But they may be going up against a better than you think secondary in the Lions. Detroit has allowed under 200 net passing yards in four of their past six game. In the year if the passer, that is a great stat. Look for the Lions to dominate on both sides of the ball for an outright win. Throw away the points and bet this on the money line if you feel like making bigger profits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns baskets

NBA blue marlin - rockets
NBA blue chip total - port/atl over
CBB main event - gonzaga
CBB cust app - San fran

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Maddux Sports

NCAA BB
10 units 720 Santa Barbara +3.5
10u 761 N. Colorado +6 (now +4)

NBA
10u 705 Orlando +3
10u 707 Brook/Chi Over 197
10u 711 Charlotte +3

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Allen Eastman CBB

2-Unit Play. Take #719 Akron (-3) over UC-Santa Barbara (3 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)

This game is being played in Las Vegas and I like Akron to take the cash. This is a quality veteran team and is one of the best teams in the MAC. They have already won at Arkansas and at Marshall this year. Akron was very good on neutral courts last year and I think that they will get this win here today. UC-Santa Barbara has los touf straight and six of seven. They have played a very challenging schedule. But they have not played well. They lost their last game at Vermont and before that were blown out at South Dakota State. I think they are really struggling and I don't think that this is a good spot for them. Akron has the size and experience to get this victory. Play the Zips.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco
21-Dec-2015
(30183) Besiktas at (30184) Osmanlispor FK


Time: 1:00 PM EST3%Total Under 2.5 (-114)


Betting Line Provider:
Bookmaker


View AnalysisTurkey Super Liga -- Osmanlispor vs Besiktas
Taking the under in this spot at Besiktas is looking to retain top spot in Super Liga play and are on the road vs Osmanlispor that although playing well defensively on home soil have lost their last 5 their and last 4 by the same 1-0 scoreline. Expect them to play a similar game with 7 to 8 in the box. This looks to follow previous scorelines and is likely a 1-0 or 2-0 final.


The Play is Under 2 1/2 -114
21-Dec-2015
(25037) MANCHESTER CITY at (25038) ARSENAL


Time: 3:00 PM EST3%ARSENAL 0.0 (-147)


Betting Line Provider:
Bookmaker


View AnalysisEngland Premier League -- Manchester City at Arsenal
A great match up here with two of the EPL's top sides facing off. Both squads have advanced into the knock out stage of Champions League and now focus on domestic league play where both teams have nearly identical records. Arsenal have been unbeatable at home in EPL play since dropping the domestic league opener and are currently on a 5 game unbeaten run with a great form swing upwards and it should be tested Monday, Man City have had little difficulty when on home soil but have struggled on the road lately scoring 2 away goals in their last 5 league games and have dropped their last two. With the game a near pickem affair I'll side with a Arsenal squad on the upswing here.


The Play is Arsenal (Pick) -147

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Robert Ferringo
CBB
1-Unit Play. Take #727 Southern Illinois (-1) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


Barry Hinson cleaned house last year and it is paying dividends now. The Salukis are 10-2 this season, albeit against a pretty each schedule, and I think they are further ahead in their rebuild than the Salukis. St. Louis has dumped five of their last six games and are just struggling to put ball in the basket. This is a pretty young team - they have three sophomore starters - and I think that SIU has done enough on the road this year - beating Sam Houston, Portland, North Texas and Murray State - that I think they will get this win as well.


1-Unit Play. Take #729 Oregon (-6.5) over Alabama (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


Alabama has caught fire under Avery Johnson. But I think that the loss of Shannon Hale in this game is a big one, which will negate playing close to home in Birmingham. Alabama has gotten wrecked by Dayton and Xavier, two teams in the same sphere as Oregon. Yes, they beat Notre Dame. But the Irish are soft and that game was a bit of a fluke. (They didn't face a healthy Wichita State team either, as the Shockers were down two starters.) Hale is their best interior defender, one of their best scorers, and one of the guys that they turn to for big shots. Oregon is a really aggressive team that hasn't tallied a big road win yet. They have gotten healthier and they are due. Oregon should pull away late and barely beat this number.


1-Unit Play. Take #738 Pacific (-3.5) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


I think that Pacific is desperate for this game. They have had to deal with a horror show of an opening, including losing two starters and two coaches to an academic scandal. They actually could get two of the players back soon. But the bottom line is that Pacific has had to face one of the toughest schedules in the WCC and they have played hard. They've only played one team rated in the 200's (like Santa Clara) and that was a one-point loss in the second game of the season (after a big game at Arizona). Santa Clara only has one win this year against a team that isn't either a D-II school or rated in the bottom 30 of D-I teams. They were blown out at UC-Riverside and UC-Irvine and outside of the excellent Jared Brownridge this team isn't packing any legit D-I talent. The start of conference play is kind of a fresh start for Pacific and I think they get something positive here.


1-Unit Play. Take #750 Houston (-2) over Grand Canyon (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


I'm going to keep rolling with Houston this year. I'll take on-floor talent over coaching in this one. Dan Majerle has done a great job with this ragtag group. But they are getting an awful lot of mileage out of a win over San Diego State. It was a nice win, but SDSU hadn't played in over a week and had Kansas on deck. It was kind of a fluke for Grand Canyon. This GC team has played one of the weakest schedules in the country, playing just two games away from home (including a 50-point loss at Louisville) and the rest at home against losers. Houston hasn't played a great schedule either. And they haven't strayed too far from the nest as well. But the difference is that I know their talent and I trust it a lot more than I do this random Grand Canyon group. This is an easy take for me.


1-Unit Play. Take #766 USC (-21) over SIU-Edwardsville (11 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


USC has beaten the tar out of everyone that they have played this year. SIU-E is one of the worst teams in the country. I just don't know why I would expect this to NOT be a 35-point win for the Trojans. They just beat a much better Cal Poly team by 19 and have beaten better teams than Edwardsville by more than this this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman's Picks For NBA Basketball

2-Unit Play. Take #715 Phoenix (+4.5) over Utah (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)

I think that the Suns have a great chance to win this game. They have not been sharp lately, losing three of four. But Utah has not been any better, losing four of their last five games. The Jazz only have three wins this month. I don't think they deserve to be favored here. The Suns are 4-1 ATS after a loss and they are 6-2 ATS against teams from the Northwest. Utah hasn't won back-to-back games in a month and they are 0-4 ATS after they cover a spread. I don't think they will win two in a row here and I like Phoenix to get the outright win.


3-Unit Play. Take #705 Orlando (+3) over New York (7:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)

I am going to take the points in this one. Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA over the last month. They have won three of their last four games and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. They have won two of three road games and have won four of their last six away from home, with a bunch of them being blowouts. The Knicks have won five straight games. But most of those wins have come against weak competition. They played their best game of the year against the Bulls the last time out and they won't be that good today. The Knicks are just 1-6 ATS on Mondays and they are just 9-20 ATS against teams from the Southeast. The Magic are the play here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza (VSI)'s Picks For NBA Basketball

4 Unit Play. Take #717 Oklahoma St -2 over LA Clippers (10:35 p.m., Monday, December 21)
If you throw out the Houston Rockets in the West I believe the LA Clippers are one of the most overrated NBA teams this season. Tonight in the Staples Center the overall better team will win and the Clippers could be in for a long evening at home. OKC has won 7 out of their last 8 games with that one loss was in Cleveland against King James. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back road games against the Spurs and Rockets and tonight if the Clips struggle the Thunder could run them out in their own building. Playing the better team and I see big games from Durrant and Westbrook and wouldn't shock me to see OKC win this game pretty easy in the 4th quarter. OKC is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in LA and the road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

25 S.Fla.

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We Pick Sorts

NCAAF

South Florida +3 2:30 ET (-110) 8* {Diamond Selection}

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Strike Point Sports
NBA
7* OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -2

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Johnny Goodtimes...aka Locksmith


Double:
Detroit Lions +3 2 Units


Home Run:
South Florida +3 4 Units
South Florida vs. Western Kentucky Under 69 4 Units
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Under 51.5 4 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence....
Playbook Newsletter
5* BEST BET New Orleans

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NBA TOTALS
3* Suns @ Jazz
OVER 198

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Monday Night Guaranteed LOCK – Huddle Up Sports
Guaranteed Monday Night Lock 500,000*:
Detroit Lions+3
Football Best Bets
Detroit Lions / NO Saints
OVER 51

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Sports Locksmith

NFL:

Chairman's Play:
Detroit +3 -130 5* 8:30 Eastern

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Strike Point Sports
NBA
7* OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -2
7-Unit Play. Take #717 Oklahoma City (-2)
over L.A. Clippers
(10:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)
The LA Clippers are good, but they aren’t top of the West good. The Oklahoma City Thunder are trying to make a push to be top of the West good, or at least make a run at San Antonio and Golden State. OKC is 7-2 straight up since the calendar changed to December and that includes wins over some quality opponents (Memphis, Utah twice, Atlanta) and a close loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Clippers for all of their athleticism don’t rebound the ball well and that will hurt them tonight. OKC leads the NBA in rebounding margin while the Clips are one of the leagues worst. This will allow the Thunder multiple opportunities to put the ball in the basket after they miss on their initial possessions. That is a must when playing on the road. The Clips are 0-3 versus teams ahead of them in the West and that is because they just aren’t good enough to compete with the big dogs. Look for OKC to control both ends of the floor and to take advantage of transition and the backboard. This has a double-digit win for the Thunder written all over it. Thunder win 109-99

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob
*Youngstown State (+25) over NOTRE DAME
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 723
Youngstown State just lost 46-105 at Michigan but that ugly result sets up the Penguins in a 70-24-7 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation. The fact that Notre Dame is coming off a loss to Indiana isn’t an issue, as the situation that applies to Youngstown applies only against big home favorites coming off a loss and the Irish are just 22-54-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more after a loss in 15 years under coach Mike Brey, including 0-10-1 ATS the last few years. My ratings favor Notre Dame by 24 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Youngstown State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more.

*UNDER (159 ½) – NORTH CAROLINA (-31 ½) vs Appalachian State
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 722
There is value on the under in this game, as my mat model projects just 152 total points. North Carolina’s games have averaged 157.4 total points against teams that would average 144.6 total points per game, so the Tarheels’ games have been 12.8 points higher scoring than what an average team would total against the same schedule. Appalachian State, meanwhile, has averaged a total of 145.0 points against teams that would combine to average 144.3 total points, so the Mountaineers’ games have been 0.7 points higher scoring than average. North Carolina’s +12.8 total points and Appalachian’s +0.7 total points would predict a game that is 13.5 points higher scoring than average. The average game has averaged 144.7 points this season, so that would yield a prediction of 158.2 total points. The line doesn’t seem that far off based on that but I expect both teams to be lower scoring going forward. Appalachian State is not going to continue to make 39.1% of their 3-point shots and they’re certainly not going to continue to have opponents make 44.0% from long range. Last season, with the same core players and same coach the Mountaineers shot just 31.6% and allowed 32.3% from 3-point range. Frank Eaves and Chris Burgess, who combined for 36.6% 3-point shooting last season are a combined 55 for 120 (45.8%) from beyond the arc this season, which is a percentage that will not be maintained going forward. North Carolina, meanwhile, has allowed 38.0% 3-point shooting so far this season (to teams that combine to make 35.1% for the season) and it’s highly unlikely that the Tarheels’ perimeter defense will continue to be that bad. Last season the Tarheels allowed just 30.0% 3-pointers (14th in the nation) and the higher percentage of 3-pointers allowed by UNC in any season under coach Roy Williams was 35.2% way back in 2004, his first season as head coach. North Carolina’s offensive 3-point percentage should continue to climb with Macus Paige as the main shooting threat now (he missed the first 6 games) but Paige is not going to continue to make 50% from long range as he has in his 5 games. While 158.2 points is predicted using this seasons stats, both of these teams are likely to have lower scoring games going forward due to 3-point shooting defense (and offense for App St) regressing to the mean. My math projects 152 ½ total points and I’ll go Under 158 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Appalachian State at +31 or more based on a 74-26-4 ATS big dog situation.

***Charlotte (+3) over HOUSTON
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 711
This game is a convergence of Charlotte being underrated, Houston still being overrated and the Rockets applying to a 23-71 ATS letdown situation based on their upset win over the Clippers. Houston is certainly better since November 27th, the night when Patrick Beverley joined the starting lineup after missing most of the early season. However, the Rockets 9-4 record with Beverley in the starting lineup has come against a schedule that is 2.7 points easier than average and Houston’s average scoring margin in those games is +4.5 points. So, Houston has only been just 1.8 points better than average in those games despite making 40% of their 3-point shots, which is not likely to continue for a team that has made just 34.1% this season and only 34.8% last season. The 5 players on the Rockets that shoot the most 3-pointers are James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Marcus Thornton, Patrick Beverley, and Corey Brewer. The career 3-point shooting percentages of those players are 36.6% (Harden), 34.7% (Ariza), 35.3% (Thornton), 36.3% (Beverley), and 29.4% (Brewer) and using career 3-point shooting percentage of all players on the team (multiplied by the number of 3 point shots each player has taken) would result in the Rockets being a 35.1% 3-point shooting team - and 36.0% using the 3-point attempts per player since November 27th. It’s highly unlikely that collection of players would continue to make 3-pointers at the rate they have in their last 13 games, which makes it unlikely that Houston will continue to be 1.8 points better than average.

Houston’s +1.8 average game rating in their last 13 games would be -0.8 if their 3-point shooting was what the career percentages would predict, which is still considerably higher than their 34.1% this season and 34.8% last season. Charlotte’s average game rating this season is +3.8 points, as the Hornets have outscored their opponents by an average of 3.7 points while facing a schedule that is 0.1 points tougher than average. Charlotte is 4.5 points better than Houston and I’d make this game a pick even if use Houston’s +1.8 unadjusted rating from their last 13 games, which assumes the Rockets would continue to make 40% of their 3-point shots (highly unlikely). The line is this game cannot be justified no matter how you do the math and Houston applies to that 23-71 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Charlotte in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and for 2-Star down to +1.

**ST MARY’S (-17) over San Francisco
08:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 740
St. Mary’s had to replace their entire starting 5 but they did so with 5 better players than the 5 that led the Gaels to their worst rating since 2007. Randy Bennett has always done a good job of replacing players and replacing last year’s group was certainly not a challenge. In fact, this year’s team may be Bennett’s best ever. Bennett has put together a collection of deadly outside shooters to go along with efficient post players Peneau and Landale, who are 6-9 and 6-11 and have combined for 18.7 points per game on 60% shooting. If opponents decide to double-team those two in the post then the Gaels counter with a stable of incredible shooters that have knocked down 47.7% of their 3-point shots. It is highly unlikely that St. Mary’s will continue to make 48% of their 3-pointers as a team but they’re a very good team even if they settle in around 40% 3-point shooting, as the Gaels still have a good post game and play great defense (39.8% FG allowed).

St. Mary’s has proven themselves against a handful of solid teams this season, beating Stanford, UC Irvine, and Cal Poly by an average of 19 points and losing by just 4 points on the road at Cal against a talented group of Golden Bears. San Francisco is not a solid team, as they’ve suffered a significant decline in front court talent with the departures of last year’s leading scorers Tollefen and Pinkins, who both averaged 14 points on a combined 51.2% shooting. This year’s Dons are solid in the backcourt but have no post offense and their defense has allowed opponents to knock down 37.1% of their 3-point shots despite those opponents combining to make just 32.0% for the season. Not being able to defend the 3-point line is not a good omen for the Dons in this game and my ratings would favor St. Mary’s by 28 points using the year’s games only without adjusting for variance. However, as indicated above, it’s unlikely that St. Mary’s will continue to make 48% of their 3-point shots and the variance adjusted prediction comes out to the Gaels by 23 ½ points. San Francisco tends to play a few points better in conference play than in their pre-conference games under coach Rex Walters, which gets us to a fair line of St. Mary’s by 21 points. The line opened at 18 ½ points and has come down and there is no math that would justify the current line. St. Mary’s is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season and I don’t see that streak ending just yet. I’ll take St. Mary’s in a 2-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less and for 1-Star up to -19.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Moves:
Sam Houston State vs Cal Irvine Under 133 $400

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's
10TH STRAIGHT MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WINNER
Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe
BIG 6u NBA GOTM-
Cliipers +2

3 Unit Rockets Under 209

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont
200 dime
Saints -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness


My 10* LEGEND Play is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCKS


Detroit


CFB


So Fl


NBA


Char
LA Clip


CBB


Grand Canyon

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Senior capper
Saints

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Sportslab

Boston -8.5.....8 units

Washington -3.....7 units
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Stanford -12.5.....9 units

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Seal $400
Pacific -4

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Stephen nover

santa clara +4

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BETTING AS A BUSINESS
Indiana +8.5 / San Antonio 8:35 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON INDIANA)