Thursday 10-5-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::speak::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina


Preview: Louisville at North Carolina State Gracenote
Oct 3, 2017

North Carolina State served notice it was a team to be reckoned with in late September when it toppled then-No. 11 Florida State in Tallahassee, and coach Dave Doeren's squad will get another chance to prove it has some staying power less than two weeks later. The 24th-ranked Wolfpack eye their first 3-0 start in ACC play since 2002 and a fifth straight victory overall Thursday when they host No. 17 Louisville.

"We're a lot more mature than we have been in the past. A lot of guys in the past would've been like 'Oh we beat the (No. 11) team so we don't have to come out as hard this week.' We just all executed exactly what we needed to do," N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb told reporters following last weekend's 33-25 win over Syracuse. The victory gave the Wolfpack their first 2-0 start in the conference since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a blemish in the ACC's Atlantic Division. In case his team needs any additional motivation on a short week, Doeren must only remind the Wolfpack of last season's 54-13 rout in which Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of overmatched opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 setback to No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 16 and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Louisville -4

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1, 1-1 ACC): Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his program-best 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman's school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last time out. Dez Fitzpatrick finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State and has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in school history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1, 2-0): Junior quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257, ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (ACC-high 71.9). Nyheim Hines, a 5-9, 197-pound track All-American, has transitioned smoothly to running back after being used as a flex player in his first two seasons and ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind Mario Williams (55.5).

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Cardinals yielded a combined 230 yards to Kent State and Murray State, the lowest two-game total allowed by Louisville since 1960.

2. The Wolfpack have not committed a fumble or thrown an interception during their winning streak and lead the ACC with a plus-six turnover margin.

3. Petrino is 14-0 against North Carolina-based schools.

PREDICTION: Louisville 34, North Carolina State 30

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - No. 17 Louisville at No. 24 NC State

ATS Trends

Louisville




Cardinals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.







NC State




Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Wolfpack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.





OU Trends

Louisville




Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
Over is 12-4 in Cardinals last 16 games following a straight up win.
Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October.
Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games on grass.
Over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
Under is 14-6 in Cardinals last 20 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 17-8-1 in Cardinals last 26 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.







NC State




Under is 7-0 in Wolfpack last 7 conference games.
Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.
Over is 6-1-1 in Wolfpack last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 18-7 in Wolfpack last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games following a straight up win.
Under is 13-6-1 in Wolfpack last 20 games in October.
Over is 15-7-1 in Wolfpack last 23 games following a ATS loss.





Head to Head No trends available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 5

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LOUISVILLE (4 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday, October 5

8:00 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina State
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Thursday’s game
Louisville is 3-0 vs NC State in ACC play, winning by 12-7-41 points; they won 20-13 (+3.5) in their last visit to Raleigh, in 2015. Cardinals (-19.5) crushed State 54-13 LY, outgaining Wolfpack 553-250; they’re 4-1 this year, winning 47-35 in Chapel Hill in their only road game so far- they beat Purdue 35-28 in Indy. Louisville is 8-5 as a road favorite under Petrino. NC State won its last four games, with a win at Florida State in there; Wolfpack is 3-7 as a home underdog under Doeren. ACC home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread so far this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 5

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-140 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-82 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Thursday, October 5

9:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Thursday's game
Patriots (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1)— New England defense has already allowed 33+ points in three games this year; they’re 0-2 when scoring less than 36 points. Patriot defense has given up 3.04 pts/drive on 28 opponent drives that started 75+ yards from goal line; next worst in NFL are Saints, at 2.80. Bucs don’t have a takeaway in last two games; they’re only 4-17 on 3rd down in last two games. Tampa ran ball for 117-111 yards in its two wins, only 26 yards on 9 carries in their 26-9 loss in Minnesota. Patriots are 6-2 vs Tampa Bay, winning last three meetings by combined score of 86-10. This is Patriots’ first visit to Tampa Bay since 1997. NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-4, 1-3 when favored.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida


Preview: Patriots at Buccaneers Gracenote
Oct 3, 2017

Tom Brady is finally up against a defense that he might not be able to overcome -- his own. Despite a sensational start to the season by two-time league MVP Brady, the New England Patriots have allowed three of their first four opponents to score at least 30 points as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.

The reigning Super Bowl champions have already lost twice at home following Sunday's 33-30 setback to the Carolina Panthers -- a division rival of Tampa Bay. "We haven't been really in control too often," said Brady, who rallied his team from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit in Sunday's last-second loss. "We are all really focused on trying to do a much better job than what we've done." The Buccaneers, who had their Week 1 matchup postponed due to Hurricane Irma, have sandwiched a pair of home wins around a 17-point loss at Minnesota. Quarterback Jameis Winston is coming off his best game of the season and gets back top running back Doug Martin, who returns after a suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -5.5. O/U: 55.5

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): Brady turned in a pedestrian effort in the season opener but he has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games while completing at least 71 percent of his passes in each. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 18 receptions and two touchdowns while averaging 95 yards receiving over the past three, but wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been inconsistent in his first season with the team. The ground game also has been spotty, although running back James White has a team-high 22 receptions. The defense has been a sieve, allowing a staggering 456.8 yards per game -- by far the league worst -- and ranking 31st with 32.0 points per game.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-1): It's unclear how much of a role Martin, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, will play in his season debut, although Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 83 yards on 16 carries. Winston, the top overall pick in 2015, bounced back from a three-interception performance at Minnesota by throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns to rally Tampa Bay to a 25-23 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. He connected with each of his tight ends -- Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard -- for TD passes last week but Mike Evans is his favorite target with 19 catches for 227 yards and two scores. Injured linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are both expected to sit out their second straight game.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brady was 9-0 on Thursday night until New England lost to Kansas City in its season opener.

2. Brate has 10 touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season, the most by any tight end in that span.

3. New England was 8-0 on the road last season and won its lone away game this season at New Orleans.

PREDICTION: Patriots 30, Buccaneers 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - New England at Tampa Bay

ATS Trends

New England




Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 5.
Patriots are 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Patriots are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 40-17-3 ATS in their last 60 games in October.
Patriots are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a straight up loss.
Patriots are 78-38-2 ATS in their last 118 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.







Tampa Bay




Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Buccaneers are 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 home games.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.





OU Trends

New England




Over is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 15-7 in Patriots last 22 games in October.
Over is 47-22 in Patriots last 69 vs. a team with a winning record.







Tampa Bay




Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games in Week 5.
Under is 4-1-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Buccaneers last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 20-8 in Buccaneers last 28 games in October.





Head to Head



Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WHERE: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A Playoff Series: Divisional Playoff; Series Tied 0-0
Preview: Red Sox at Astros Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

The Houston Astros battled all the way into the final weekend in the race for the best record in the American League and fell just short, leaving them to host the third-seeded AL East champion Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday. The second-seeded Astros made the biggest move of the waiver deadline period by bringing in Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers and will send him to the mound in Game 1.

Verlander brings a 7-5 record and a 3.39 ERA in 16 career postseason starts to a Houston squad that led the AL in team batting average at .282 and features probable MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve. "I think that's the main goal, just be able to keep your feel, be able to come into the start, and be consistent," Verlander told reporters of his approach to the game. "As a starting pitcher, that's what it's about. I'm going to do whatever I can to help maintain my mechanics and the feel on the mound." The Red Sox will counter with Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, who struggled in September but had the luxury of taking the final day of the regular season off after Boston beat the Astros on Saturday to clinch the AL East. The Astros took three of four in that series and four of seven from the Red Sox during the regular season and went 48-33 at Minute Maid Park.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, MLB Network

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36)

Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA over his final eight starts and struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, including his final start against Toronto on Sept. 26 in which he served up four home runs. The Florida native will be making his first career postseason start and is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best."

Verlander earned his spot at the top of the Astros postseason rotation by going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the team. The former MVP allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision. "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself."

WALK-OFFS

1. Red Sox INF Eduardo Nunez (knee) played in only one game since Sept. 9 but is expected to be available during the series.

2. Houston RF Josh Reddick (back) sat out the final six games of the regular season but could play Thursday.

3. Boston will start LHP Drew Pomeranz in Game 2 while Houston counters with LHP Dallas Keuchel.

PREDICTION: Red Sox 3, Astros 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Boston at Houston

W/L Trends

Boston




Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Red Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 road games.
Red Sox are 23-9 in their last 32 games following an off day.
Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 Thursday games.
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
Red Sox are 4-1 in Sales last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Red Sox are 7-2 in Sales last 9 road starts.
Red Sox are 19-8 in Sales last 27 starts.
Red Sox are 15-7 in Sales last 22 starts on grass.
Red Sox are 0-4 in Sales last 4 Thursday starts.







Houston




Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a win.
Astros are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Astros are 22-8 in their last 30 overall.
Astros are 22-8 in their last 30 games on grass.
Astros are 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 playoff games.
Astros are 6-17 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Astros are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff home games.
Astros are 4-0 in Verlanders last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 5-0 in Verlanders last 5 starts.
Astros are 5-0 in Verlanders last 5 starts on grass.





OU Trends

Boston




Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 12-2-2 in Red Sox last 16 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last 6 playoff games.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Red Sox last 7 overall.
Under is 9-4-1 in Red Sox last 14 playoff road games.
Under is 11-5 in Red Sox last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts overall.
Under is 4-1 in Sales last 5 Thursday starts.
Over is 4-1 in Sales last 5 road starts.







Houston




Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 home games.
Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games following a win.
Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 Divisional Playoff home games.
Over is 10-2 in Astros last 12 Divisional Playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 16-5-1 in Astros last 22 vs. American League East.
Over is 9-3 in Astros last 12 games following an off day.
Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 6-2 in Astros last 8 overall.
Under is 10-4 in Astros last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Verlanders last 5 starts overall.





Head to Head



Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.





Umpire Trends - Name unavailable
No trends available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: New York Yankees (92-71) at Cleveland Indians (102-60)
DATE/TIME: Thursday, October 05 - 7:30 PM EST
WHERE: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A Playoff Series: Divisional Playoff; Series Tied 0-0
Preview: Yankees at Indians Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season, and Joe Girardi took that philosophy a step further while guiding the New York Yankees to the American League Division Series with a win in the wild-card game Tuesday. Girardi will try to find a way to beat Francona and the best team in the AL when the Yankees visit the top-seeded Indians in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday.

Girardi got 26 outs from his bullpen after yanking starter Luis Severino with one out and three runs in in the first inning Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins, and Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. "If you're playing four games in five nights, it's really difficult to do," Girardi told reporters of leaning heavily on the relievers. "You can do it probably two of the games of the four, but you can't do it back to back. And a lot of times you can -- if you were to do it on Game 2, you probably can't even do it on Game 3, even with the off-day in between." Francona rode left-hander Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. Cleveland surprised some by choosing Trevor Bauer to start Game 1 over ace Corey Kluber, while New York is expected to counter with Sonny Gray.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19)

Gray went 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts after being acquired from the Oakland Athletics prior to the trade deadline but struggled some in September, surrendering nine home runs in 35 1/3 innings. The Vanderbilt product, who lost at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3, was ripped for six runs on six hits - two homers - over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA.

Bauer aided the Indians' sprint to the finish by going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 13 games (12 starts) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those 13 outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and the UCLA product breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 frames and striking out 11. Bauer, who gets the start over Cy Young candidate Kluber so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS, went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason.

WALK-OFFS

1.Yankees RF Aaron Judge set a rookie record with 52 home runs in the regular season and homered in Tuesday's wild-card game.

2. Cleveland 2B/3B Jose Ramirez hit .407 from Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season.

3. New York's bullpen recorded 13 strikeouts Tuesday, which ties for the most all-time by a bullpen in a playoff game.

PREDICTION: Indians 4, Yankees 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - NY Yankees at Cleveland

W/L Trends

NY Yankees




Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 games on grass.
Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 19-7 in their last 26 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Yankees are 21-8 in their last 29 overall.
Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff road games.
Yankees are 11-5 in their last 16 Divisional Playoff games.
Yankees are 35-17 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff games.







Cleveland




Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff home games.
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff games.
Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day.
Indians are 42-9 in their last 51 overall.
Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 43-10 in their last 53 games following a win.
Indians are 21-5 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 42-11 in their last 53 games on grass.
Indians are 42-14 in their last 56 Thursday games.
Indians are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. American League East.
Indians are 37-14 in their last 51 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 38-16 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Indians are 35-16 in their last 51 home games.
Indians are 35-16 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 6-0 in Bauers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Indians are 4-0 in Bauers last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 5-0 in Bauers last 5 Thursday starts.
Indians are 4-0 in Bauers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 7-1 in Bauers last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Indians are 4-1 in Bauers last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 7-2 in Bauers last 9 starts.
Indians are 7-2 in Bauers last 9 starts on grass.
Indians are 6-2 in Bauers last 8 home starts.
Indians are 20-8 in Bauers last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Indians are 5-2 in Bauers last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.





OU Trends

NY Yankees




Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games following a win.
Over is 9-3 in Yankees last 12 vs. American League Central.
Over is 11-4-2 in Yankees last 17 playoff road games.
Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 overall.
Under is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 playoff games.
Under is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.







Cleveland




Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 vs. American League East.
Under is 11-3 in Indians last 14 playoff games.
Under is 15-5-1 in Indians last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 15-5-2 in Indians last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-3-2 in Indians last 13 playoff home games.
Under is 13-5 in Indians last 18 games following a win.
Under is 20-8-2 in Indians last 30 home games.
Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 12-5 in Indians last 17 Thursday games.
Under is 25-12-3 in Indians last 40 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1-2 in Bauers last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Bauers last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Bauers last 6 starts overall.
Over is 5-1 in Bauers last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2-3 in Bauers last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bauers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 38-15-5 in Bauers last 58 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Bauers last 11 home starts.
Under is 7-3-3 in Bauers last 13 starts vs. American League East.





Head to Head



Over is 2-0-2 in Bauers last 4 home starts vs. Yankees.
Under is 2-0-2 in Bauers last 4 starts vs. Yankees.
Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Cleveland.
Yankees are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.





Umpire Trends - Name unavailable
No trends available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #5 - BELMONT PARK - 3:07 PM EASTERN POST
8½ FURLONGS TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $40,000.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $65,000.00 PURSE

#4 STYLE DRIFT
#2 LADY JOAN
#3 VERDANT PASTURES
#7 BELLE OF THE SPA

#4 STYLE DRIFT qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," takes a slight class drop (-1) is the overall speed leader in this O.C. field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the turf, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, winning in both her 3rd and 5th races back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with an impressive 66% of more than 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 LADY JOAN has hit the board in four straight, with her last three efforts, including a win in her 3rd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: 4

#5 OFFICER RIDGE (ML=2/1)


OFFICER RIDGE - Peltroche and Contreras partnered together are a punter's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LIMEHOUSER (ML=9/5), #3 I NEED YOU (ML=5/1), #6 DEANDREA'S PRIDE (ML=6/1),

LIMEHOUSER - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. I NEED YOU - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to wager on him. This rallier looks to have little chance without a speed battle on the front end. DEANDREA'S PRIDE - This was a hot horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be leery of this one.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - OFFICER RIDGE - My calculated information would suggest that some type of wager is indeed necessary given the lone speed that this horse should demonstrate against this field.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 OFFICER RIDGE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with 6

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 3

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4)


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 40 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:08P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GIGGY SMOOTH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GIGGY SMOOTH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SCHOUT BAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SMOOTH CAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EMERGENCY EXIT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1
GIGGY SMOOTH
5/2

9/2
2
SCHOUT BAY
3/1

5/1
4
SMOOTH CAT
9/5

6/1
6
EMERGENCY EXIT
6/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fresno

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2016-2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 SHEZ A GRILLER 8/1

# 7 BELLANZA 2/1

# 6 DIZZY TIZZY 3/1

SHEZ A GRILLER looks to be a very good contender and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. With Orozco getting the mount, watch out for this pony. BELLANZA - Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 85 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the most favorable in this field. Looks solid against this group and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. DIZZY TIZZY - Should keep the strong string of finish positions intact this time around. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this bunch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 A. P. D'ORO 15/1

# 1 EL GUERRERO AZTECA 5/1

# 7 MCMANAMAN 10/1

A. P. D'ORO is my choice and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Alvarez will almost certainly be able to get this colt to break out early for this event. Look for a decent pace improvement from this equine who enters with second time Lasix today. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 59 speed figure which is one of the best in this field. EL GUERRERO AZTECA - Should compete very well in the pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses in this race. MCMANAMAN - Is tough not to look at given the company run in as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 9

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)


Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $34,000 • Post: 10:45
(RAIL AT 18 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, TRIAL OR OKLAHOMA BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.)
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MIMI'S MONEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NATALIE'S MISCHIEF: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAKE AM ENDS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ENCHANTING EMBRACE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or tur f) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
9
MIMI'S MONEY
15/1

9/2
3
NATALIE'S MISCHIEF
8/1

6/1
10
MAKE AMENDS
2/1

7/1
6
ENCHANTING EMBRACE
4/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #3 - Post: 2:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: 3

#7 GATO DOLCE (ML=5/1)
#12 ROLLS ROYCE DEAL (ML=12/1)
#9 OREJAS (ML=4/1)
#8 SUPREME GIANT (ML=12/1)


GATO DOLCE - I predict an ideal trip. Stalk the front runners, and swing by on the turn. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL - Jockey hops up aloft after getting to know the fine animal by riding last out. That's always a helpful angle. OREJAS - Ran in the last race against a tougher field at Del Mar. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. This horse is a hot commodity. Claimed in his last two races. SUPREME GIANT - Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. Finished second, but easily runner-up over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 EMPIRE RULER (ML=3/1), #1 SOONER BOOMER (ML=6/1), #5 SOUTHERN THUNDER (ML=8/1),

EMPIRE RULER - No picnic to play this racer this time out. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you bet on him in a race of 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. SOONER BOOMER - A runner should have more early zip at 1 mile to get me going about his chances at 6 1/2 furlongs. A strong thoroughbred that's been running well, but he's been off the track in the mornings recently. The rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued equine. SOUTHERN THUNDER - Last raced on Aug 19th at Del Mar, finishing sixth. Unlikely to perk up off of that performance in today's race. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint contests recently. Improbable to see him doing it in today's event either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 GATO DOLCE is going to be the play if we are getting 9/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,9,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Preview: Predators at Bruins Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

The Nashville Predators advanced past the second round for the first time in franchise history in the spring, moving past the Western Conference final before falling just two wins shy of the Stanley Cup title. The Music City representatives look to take the first step on what they hope is another long journey on Thursday when they open the 2017-18 season against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden.

Nashville boasts a potent top line that features 31-goal scoring wings Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson around center Ryan Johansen, who erupted for 13 points in 14 playoff games before being shut down due to acute compartment syndrome. The Predators' offense takes a hit after this trio, with the team banking on offseason acquisition Nick Bonino (Pittsburgh) paying dividends and Colton Sissons, Kevin Fiala and Pontus Aberg taking the next step in their development to deal with the departures of former captain Mike Fisher (retirement) and fellow forward James Neal (Vegas). While Music City embraced the Predators during their lengthy postseason run, Boston's first playoff appearance in three years was promptly snuffed out by Ottawa in the first round to ignite a summer filled with questions. David Pastrnak (34 goals, 70 points) answered a significant one just before training camp by signing a six-year, $40 million deal.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FSN Tennessee (Nashville), NESN (Boston)

ABOUT THE PREDATORS (2016-17: 41-29-12, 4th in Central Division): Nashville's strength rests with arguably the best quartet of defensemen in Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis, although Ellis is expected to be sidelined into January with a knee injury. Veteran Alexei Emelin was acquired to provide depth on the back end in front of Pekka Rinne, who overcame a mediocre regular season to excel in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Juuse Saros, 22, could be in for a greater workload if Rinne - who will turn 35 in November - falters this season.

ABOUT THE BRUINS (2016-17: 44-31-7, 3rd in Atlantic Division): Boston openly inserted a healthy dose of youth in its lineup last season and its success in 2017-18 could hinge on how quickly those kids adjust under the direction of coach Bruce Cassidy. "We have some spots available, and that's what you need in today's NHL, to have young guys come in and produce and can carry a bit of the load," said Brad Marchand, who recorded franchise bests in goals (37), assists (46) and points (85) last season. "We definitely have some guys that are going to be able to do that. ... It's going to help us not only this year but the next five or six years." Promising 19-year-old Charlie McAvoy and fellow defenseman Brandon Carlo will be looked upon to log significant minutes to take the load off 40-year-old captain Zdeno Chara.

OVERTIME

1. Former Vezina Trophy winner Tuukka Rask recorded career bests in wins (37) and shutouts (eight) last season for Boston.

2. Johansen, who signed an eight-year, $64 million deal in the summer, has eclipsed 60 points and 20 power-play points in each of his last four seasons.

3. Bruins C Patrice Bergeron, a four-time Selke Trophy winner, will play in his 900th career game on Thursday.

PREDICTION: Predators 3, Bruins 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Nashville at Boston


Nashville




Predators are 14-6 in their last 20 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Predators are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Predators are 3-7 in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Predators are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.
Predators are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Predators are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Atlantic.







Boston




Bruins are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Central.
Bruins are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.
Bruins are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Bruins are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Bruins are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Bruins are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Bruins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.





OU Trends

Nashville




Under is 6-1-2 in Predators last 9 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Predators last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 10-3-4 in Predators last 17 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-2 in Predators last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-3 in Predators last 10 Thursday games.
Under is 7-3 in Predators last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 16-7-7 in Predators last 30 overall.







Boston




Under is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 vs. Central.
Under is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1-2 in Bruins last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 9-3-2 in Bruins last 14 overall.
Under is 3-1-2 in Bruins last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 12-4-2 in Bruins last 18 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.





Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings.
Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in Boston.
Predators are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York

Preview: Canadiens at Sabres Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

Claude Julien settles in for his first full season behind the bench with the Montreal Canadiens, who open the campaign on the road against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night. Julien steadied the Canadiens over the final two months last season en route to the Atlantic Division title before the team was bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

Montreal made a pair of offseason moves that it expects to ensure success, locking up franchise goaltender Carey Price to an eight-year, $84 million contract extension and adding a burgeoning offensive talent with the acquisition of Jonathan Drouin from Tampa Bay. "There's a lot of things that I think Jonathan can see and do, and we'll continue to work with that," Julien said of Drouin, the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2013. Buffalo made sweeping changes in the organization in the offseason, including the hire of former Sabres defenseman Phil Housley as its new head coach. Housley's hopes for success, and that of the organization's, rest on the shoulders of its young marquee star -- a point driven home when the team signed third-year center Jack Eichel to an NHL-maximum eight-year, $80 million contract on Tuesday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, RDS, TSN2 (Montreal), MSG-B (Buffalo)

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (2016-17: 47-26-9, 1st in Atlantic Division): Captain Max Pacioretty scored 35 goals last season, the fifth time in six years he has eclipsed 30, but he was limited to one assist as Montreal managed 11 goals in a six-game playoff loss to the New York Rangers. Pacioretty will be paired with the 22-year-old Drouin, who is shifting to center after scoring 21 goals and adding 32 assists last season, with 26 of his 53 points coming on the power play. Drouin's presence allows Alex Galchenyuk, who dipped from 30 goals in 2015-16 to 17 last season, to remain on the wing, while veteran Ales Hemsky was brought in to bolster the offense. Montreal lost three defensemen but inked free agent Karl Alzner to join stud blue-liner Shea Weber in front of star netminder Price, who won 37 of his 62 starts last season.

ABOUT THE SABRES (2016-17: 33-37-12, 8th in Atlantic Division): Eichel, taken one spot behind Edmonton's Connor David in the 2015 draft, missed the first 21 games last season due to injury but matched his rookie total of 24 goals while collecting 57 points in 61 games. Ex-Sabres captain Jason Pominville was brought back to join an offense that features 28-goal scorer Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly (20) and Kyle Okposo (19), while there were a number of changes along the blue line. Marco Sandella was acquired along with Pominville in a trade with Minnesota to join former Canadiens defenseman Nathan Beaulieu and Russian signee Victor Antipin. Robin Lehner had a 2.68 goals-against average and .920 save percentage in his first full season as starter and will be backed up by Chad Johnson, who started 40 games for Buffalo in 2015-16.

OVERTIME

1. Montreal has had its struggles with Buffalo over the past two seasons, winning five of nine meetings (5-3-1).

2. Eichel has yet to score a goal in eight career matchups against Montreal.

3. The teams swung a minor trade Wednesday, with Montreal sending D Zach Redmond to Buffalo in exchange for F Nicolas Deslauriers.

PREDICTION: Canadiens 3, Sabres 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Montreal at Buffalo

W/L Trends

Montreal




Canadiens are 12-4 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Canadiens are 11-4 in their last 15 road games.
Canadiens are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. Atlantic.
Canadiens are 3-7 in their last 10 Thursday games.
Canadiens are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Canadiens are 1-8 in their last 9 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.







Buffalo




Sabres are 63-137 in their last 200 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Sabres are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Sabres are 14-50 in their last 64 Thursday games.
Sabres are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Sabres are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.





OU Trends

Montreal




Over is 1-0-3 in Canadiens last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 16-3-3 in Canadiens last 22 road games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Canadiens last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Canadiens last 5 vs. Atlantic.
Under is 20-6-6 in Canadiens last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 19-6-6 in Canadiens last 31 overall.
Under is 14-5-5 in Canadiens last 24 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 15-6-5 in Canadiens last 26 games following a win.







Buffalo




Over is 4-1 in Sabres last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Sabres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 12-3-3 in Sabres last 18 games playing on 3 or more days rest.





Head to Head

Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Buffalo.
Over is 5-2-4 in the last 11 meetings.
Canadiens are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Buffalo.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

Preview: Avalanche at Rangers Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

The New York Rangers highlighted a summer of change by signing smooth-skating free agent Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year, $26.6 million contract to calm the waters following the offseason departure of respected defenseman Dan Girardi. Shattenkirk will make his official debut on Broadway as the Rangers open their 2017-18 season against the visiting Colorado Avalanche on Thursday.

"I want to perform. I want to be the guy who can come in here and live up to the hype," the New Rochelle (N.Y.) native told the New York Daily News. Shattenkirk, who collected a career-high 56 points last season with St. Louis and Washington, has recorded at least 25 power-play points in each of his past four seasons and should form a potent defensive pairing with captain Ryan McDonagh (career-high 15 power-play points in 2016-17). While New York saw its season end with a second-round loss to upstart Ottawa, Colorado's campaign effectively ended shortly after it began and resulted with the fewest points (48) of any NHL team in the salary cap era. The Avalanche finished last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Altitude (Colorado), MSG (New York)

ABOUT THE AVALANCHE (2016-17: 22-56-4, 7th in Central Division): Potential trade pieces Matt Duchene and captain Gabriel Landeskog remained with the club during last year's dismal campaign, although they likely will be hot topics on the rumor mill prior to this season's trade deadline. Mikko Rantanen's 20 goals led the way for Colorado, which needs more on the offensive front from former top overall picks Nathan MacKinnon (team-best 37 assists, 53 points) and Nail Yakupov (three goals) as well as second-overall selection Landeskog (18 goals). Colin Wilson, who was the seventh overall pick in 2008, has just one 20-goal season in his career. Tyson Jost, who was the club's first-round pick in 2016, is aiming to take a big step forward after scoring one goal in just six games last season.

ABOUT THE RANGERS (2016-17: 48-28-6, 4th in Metropolitan Division): New York boasts substantial depth as opposed to individual stars on offense, with Chris Kreider (club-high 28 goals), Mats Zuccarello (team-leading 44 assists, 59 points), Kevin Hayes (49 points) and Mika Zibanejad (37 points). The 33-year-old Rick Nash (23 goals) enters the final season of a four-year deal that pays the him $7.8 million, second only to Henrik Lundqvist. The former Vezina Trophy winner has seen his goals-against average rise and his save percentage go down in each of the last past three seasons. Offseason acquisition Ondrej Pavelec will serve as Lundqvist's backup after Antti Raanta and top-line center Derek Stepan were shuffled to Arizona for the seventh overall pick in the 2017 draft (center Lias Andersson) and defensive prospect Anthony DeAngelo.

OVERTIME

1. Colorado's former Vezina Trophy finalist Semyon Varlamov, who is returning from a hip surgery, will be put to the test in short order behind a leaky defense that yielded a league-worst 276 goals.

2. Shattenkirk was selected with the 14th overall pick of the 2007 draft by the Avalanche, with whom he played in 46 games during the 2010-11 season.

3. Colorado claimed former Dallas D Patrik Nemeth on waivers Tuesday.

PREDICTION: Rangers 5, Avalanche 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Colorado at NY Rangers

W/L Trends

Colorado




Avalanche are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.
Avalanche are 4-9 in their last 13 vs. Metropolitan.
Avalanche are 16-39 in their last 55 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Avalanche are 7-20 in their last 27 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Avalanche are 13-38 in their last 51 road games.
Avalanche are 5-16 in their last 21 Thursday games.
Avalanche are 6-20 in their last 26 games following a win.
Avalanche are 11-44 in their last 55 overall.







NY Rangers




Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Central.
Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Rangers are 10-3 in their last 13 Thursday games.
Rangers are 44-21 in their last 65 vs. Western Conference.
Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.





OU Trends

Colorado




Over is 4-0-1 in Avalanche last 5 games following a win.
Over is 5-1-2 in Avalanche last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Avalanche last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1-1 in Avalanche last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over is 3-1-1 in Avalanche last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 3-1-2 in Avalanche last 6 vs. Metropolitan.
Over is 3-1-1 in Avalanche last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 5-2 in Avalanche last 7 road games.







NY Rangers




Over is 3-0-2 in Rangers last 5 overall.
Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 vs. Central.
Under is 4-1-2 in Rangers last 7 home games.
Under is 3-1-2 in Rangers last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 8-3-2 in Rangers last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2-1 in Rangers last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Rangers last 13 vs. Western Conference.





Head to Head

Avalanche are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in New York.
Avalanche are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario

Preview: Capitals at Senators Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

It appears the Washington Capitals have nowhere to go but down -- at least where the regular season is concerned. The past two seasons have ended in disappointment for the Capitals after claiming the Presidents' Trophy twice, providing a tough act to follow as they open the 2017-18 season on the road at the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.

Washington rolled up 111 wins over the past two seasons before being eliminated in the second round of the playoffs both times by eventual Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh, but the players are not buying into the predictions of a decline. "As a player, you can really feel from the outside (people) don't have high expectations, but at the same time, we still have high expectations of ourselves as players," center Nicklas Backstrom said. The Senators actually may have a more difficult sequel than the Capitals after their stunning run to the Eastern Conference finals, where they pushed the Penguins to double overtime in Game 7. Superstar defenseman and captain Erik Karlsson was not placed on injured reserve but will not be available for the season opener while he continues to recover from foot surgery in mid-June.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Washington, RDS2, TSN5 (Ottawa)

ABOUT THE CAPITALS (2016-17: 55-19-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division): Captain Alex Ovechkin dipped to 33 goals after three consecutive 50-goal campaigns, but he still tied for the league high with 17 power-play tallies. Washington lost a pair of 24-goal scorers in Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams. Still, there is plenty of offensive talent -- Backstrom had 23 goals and was second in the league with 63 assists while T.J. Oshie (33 goals) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (59 points) are dangerous attackers. The biggest concern is on a blue line that saw the departures of Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt, leaving Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen and John Carlson at the top defensemen. Fortunately for the Capitals, the last line of defense is manned by Braden Holtby, who is coming off three straight 40-win seasons.
ABOUT THE SENATORS (2016-17: 44-28-10, 2nd in Atlantic Division): Karlsson revealed that half his ankle bone was removed during the June surgery, so all eyes will be on the player who led the team with 71 points in the regular season before collecting 18 points in 19 postseason contests. Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone each scored at least 22 goals, but Ottawa will be expecting more from Bobby Ryan and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who combined for 25 tallies in the regular season before lighting it up in the playoffs. Marc Methot's departure left a hole on the blue line that was plugged with the signing of veteran Johnny Oduya. Goaltender Craig Anderson had a trying season off the ice while his wife battled cancer, but he registered five shutouts in only 40 starts and has one of the league's top backups in Mike Condon.

OVERTIME

1. Washington's power play was tied for third in the league last season, converting on 23.1 percent of its chances.

2. Anderson is 11-7-1 with a 2.32 goals-against average versus Washington.

3. Capitals F Tom Wilson received a four-game suspension for a boarding incident in the preseason finale.

PREDICTION: Capitals 4, Senators 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Washington at Ottawa

W/L Trends

Washington




Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Capitals are 53-15 in their last 68 vs. Atlantic.
Capitals are 37-16 in their last 53 vs. Eastern Conference.
Capitals are 36-16 in their last 52 Thursday games.
Capitals are 42-19 in their last 61 overall.
Capitals are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win.
Capitals are 41-19 in their last 60 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Capitals are 55-26 in their last 81 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Capitals are 1-8 in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.







Ottawa




Senators are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
Senators are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.
Senators are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.





OU Trends

Washington




Under is 4-0 in Capitals last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 5-1 in Capitals last 6 games following a win.
Under is 5-1 in Capitals last 6 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Capitals last 8 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 15-6-6 in Capitals last 27 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 17-7-2 in Capitals last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.







Ottawa




Under is 4-1 in Senators last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 18-5-3 in Senators last 26 Thursday games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Senators last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Senators last 5 home games.
Over is 5-2-4 in Senators last 11 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Senators last 8 following a loss of 3 or more goals.
Under is 63-30-6 in Senators last 99 vs. Metropolitan.





Head to Head

Capitals are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Ottawa.
Under is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings.
Home team is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.
Capitals are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in Ottawa.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Preview: Wild at Red Wings Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

A noteworthy milestone and an era came to an end in April for the Detroit Red Wings, who will open the 2017-18 season -- and Little Caesars Arena -- against the visiting Minnesota Wild on Thursday night. The new venue could be the main attraction this season for the Red Wings, who had their 25-season playoff run halted in April.

"The new arena looks amazing, even on the ice, from the players’ view," forward Tomas Tatar told the Detroit Free Press. "I think people will enjoy it a lot. It’s great to be here. We can’t be more happy.” The Red Wings, who played nearly 40 years at venerable Joe Louis Arena, struggled in all areas last season and barely avoiding finishing in last place in the Atlantic Division. Conversely, the Wild set a franchise record for wins (49) last season but were drummed out of the playoffs in the first round for the third time in five years, prompting coach Bruce Boudreau's “Good Isn’t Good Enough” mantra. “Because we’re always good,” said Boudreau. “We want to strive to be better than good. We want to be great. ... We have a team that’s built to win.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. NBC Sports Network

ABOUT THE WILD (2016-17: 49-25-8, 2nd in Central Division): Minnesota possesses a solid blend of strong veteran leadership and young emerging talent, with nine players producing at least 40 points last season and five collecting between 56 and 69 points. Leading scorer Mikael Granland established career bests with 26 goals and 43 assists and is part of a No. 2 line featuring captain Mikko Koivu (58 points) and Jason Zucker (47 points). Zach Parise's back woes are a concern on the top unit, which received a combined 53 goals from Eric Staal and Nino Niederreiter, while offseason acquisitions Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno and Matt Cullen add depth to the lineup. Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon head a defensive corps that lost Marco Scandella to a trade while goaltender Devan Dubnyk is coming off a career-best 40-win campaign.

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (2016-17: 33-36-13, 7th in Atlantic Division): One obvious trouble spot for Detroit is an offense that ranked 26th in the league last season, with captain Henrik Zetterberg (68) the only player to surpass 50 points and Tatar (25) the only 20-goal scorer. The punchless attack was exacerbated by the woes at the other end of the ice -- Petr Mrazek stumbled badly with an 18-21-9 record and woeful 3.04 goals-against average and has fallen behind 33-year-old Jimmy Howard, who posted a 2.10 GAA during an injury-plagued campaign. Defenseman Trevor Daley was the lone offseason addition of note and joins a blue-line corps that includes longtime stalwart Niklas Kronwall, who's playing on creaky knees. Detroit needs to get third-year center Dylan Larkin to show the offensive promise of his 2015-16 rookie season.

OVERTIME

1. Parise will miss at least the first two games of the season, general manager Chuck Fletcher said.

2. Red Wings F Andreas Athanasiou, an 18-goal scorer last season, remains unsigned and is mulling playing in Europe.

3. Minnesota signed F Daniel Winnik to a one-year contract on Wednesday.

PREDICTION: Wild 3, Red Wings 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Minnesota at Detroit

W/L Trends

Minnesota




Wild are 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Wild are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Atlantic.
Wild are 14-4 in their last 18 Thursday games.
Wild are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
Wild are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.
Wild are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
Wild are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Wild are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Wild are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.







Detroit




Red Wings are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Red Wings are 7-15 in their last 22 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Red Wings are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Red Wings are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
Red Wings are 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Red Wings are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.





OU Trends

Minnesota




Under is 5-1 in Wild last 6 overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Wild last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-1 in Wild last 6 road games.
Under is 8-2 in Wild last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Wild last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 23-7-2 in Wild last 32 games following a win.
Under is 5-2 in Wild last 7 Thursday games.
Over is 20-8-9 in Wild last 37 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-8 in Wild last 36 vs. Atlantic.







Detroit




Over is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 7-1-1 in Red Wings last 9 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-2 in Red Wings last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 3-1-1 in Red Wings last 5 games following a win.
Under is 5-2 in Red Wings last 7 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-1 in Red Wings last 11 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 9-4-1 in Red Wings last 14 home games.





Head to Head

Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Detroit.
Over is 6-2-4 in the last 12 meetings.
Wild are 16-35-3 in the last 54 meetings.
Wild are 7-19-1 in the last 27 meetings in Detroit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Preview: Penguins at Blackhawks Gracenote
Oct 5, 2017

The Chicago Blackhawks have plenty to prove after a surprisingly early exit from the 2017 playoffs and look to get off to a strong start when they host the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday. The Blackhawks won the Central Division last season before scoring just three goals while being swept by Nashville in the first round of the postseason.

Chicago brought back some familiar faces as they signed free-agent forward Patrick Sharp, who scored at least 30 goals four times for the Blackhawks from 2007-14 and has 599 career points, and re-acquired left wing Brandon Saad to play on a line with captain Jonathan Toews. Chicago also shuffled its defense behind Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, with Cody Franson and Connor Murphy added to the mix, and will be tested right away by a potent Pittsburgh offense that features former Hart Trophy winners Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and led the league in goals last season. The Penguins rallied from a two-goal deficit in the third period before losing to St. Louis 5-4 in overtime on Wednesday after raising their second straight championship banner to the rafters. Crosby registered a goal and an assist to lead four players with multiple points in the opener for Pittsburgh, which plays six of its first nine games on the road.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, Sportsnet 360, Sportsnet 1, AT&T SportsNet-Pittsburgh

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (0-0-1): Crosby and linemates Conor Sheary (one goal) and Jake Guentzel (two assists) picked up where they left off last season with a five-point night in the opener while Malkin and Bryan Rust each added two assists. Pittsburgh received a goal from both Justin Schultz and Olli Maatta while fellow defenseman Matt Hunwick made his Penguins debut. Matt Murray, who has won the Stanley Cup in each of his first two NHL seasons, turned aside 29 shots Wednesday and is being backed up by veteran Antti Niemi after Marc-Andre Fleury was selected by Vegas in the expansion draft.

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (2016-17: 50-23-9, 1st in Central): Toews scored 21 goals and posted a plus-7 rating last season, which both rate as the worst of his 10-year career, and hopes to regain his standing among the league’s top centers. “I put a lot of pressure on myself, especially the last couple of years,” Toews, who is expected to play despite a lower-body injury, told the Chicago Tribune. "I think I make things harder on myself and my linemates. … (I need to) play loose and have fun and just let things happen.” Patrick Kane led the team in scoring with 89 points last season and is likely to skate on a line with Nick Schmaltz and Ryan Hartman to start the campaign.

OVERTIME

1. The Blackhawks have beaten the Penguins six straight times, scoring nine of the 11 goals in the two matchups last season.

2. Pittsburgh D Kris Letang, who returned from neck surgery in the season opener, is one assist shy of 300 for his career.

3. Chicago RW Marian Hossa is expected to miss the season due to a skin disorder.

PREDICTION: Blackhawks 4, Penguins 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Pittsburgh at Chicago

W/L Trends

Pittsburgh




Penguins are 23-9 in their last 32 Thursday games.
Penguins are 50-24 in their last 74 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Penguins are 35-17 in their last 52 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Penguins are 57-28 in their last 85 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Penguins are 3-12 in their last 15 games following OT on the previous day.
Penguins are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.







Chicago




Blackhawks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Metropolitan.
Blackhawks are 58-17 in their last 75 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Blackhawks are 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win.
Blackhawks are 9-4 in their last 13 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Blackhawks are 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Blackhawks are 0-8 in their last 8 overall.
Blackhawks are 0-8 in their last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.





OU Trends

Pittsburgh




Under is 9-1 in Penguins last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 3-1-1 in Penguins last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Penguins last 5 road games.
Under is 19-7 in Penguins last 26 games following OT on the previous day.
Over is 20-8-4 in Penguins last 32 Thursday games.
Under is 7-3-2 in Penguins last 12 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 46-22-8 in Penguins last 76 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.







Chicago




Under is 2-0-4 in Blackhawks last 6 overall.
Under is 5-0-1 in Blackhawks last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 4-0-1 in Blackhawks last 5 home games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Blackhawks last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Blackhawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 31-10-12 in Blackhawks last 53 vs. Metropolitan.
Under is 12-4-5 in Blackhawks last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over is 27-11-19 in Blackhawks last 57 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.





Head to Head

Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Under is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings.
Home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Penguins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
Penguins are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 10:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, California

Preview: Coyotes at Ducks Gracenote
Oct 4, 2017

The Anaheim Ducks' run of five straight Pacific Division titles could be in jeopardy this season if the club is unable to overcome significant injuries as well as fend off the challenge of Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. Captain Ryan Getzlaf and the Ducks look to begin the new season on the right foot Thursday as they host the Arizona Coyotes at Honda Center.

"The ultimate goal is to build an organization where you don't have to rebuild," Getzlaf told the Orange County Register. The 32-year-old Getzlaf meshed well with Patrick Eaves upon the latter being acquired from Dallas at last season's trade deadline, so much so that the unrestricted free agent Eaves promptly signed a three-year contract extension. While the Ducks boast a familiar look at the top of the division, the Coyotes will feature a new one with the absence of the longtime face of the franchise in Shane Doan (retired) as well as former Pittsburgh assistant Rick Tocchet taking over the coaching responsibilities from Dave Tippett. Goaltender Antti Raanta, who was acquired with top-line center Derek Stepan in an offseason trade with the New York Rangers, will be Arizona's starter after it traded All-Star Mike Smith to Calgary.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, FSN Arizona, PRIME (Anaheim)

ABOUT THE COYOTES (2016-17: 30-42-10, 6th in Pacific Division): Max Domi sounded like a kid at Christmas with two new presents when he discussed the additions of Stepan and Raanta. "Those guys have a lot of experience and have played on some good hockey teams. Bringing that to our team and our organization is going to be huge," Domi said, per ESPN. "I think Rants is exciting too, just because that guy has been itching to be a starter for his whole career and now he has an opportunity to do it." Veteran defensemen Niklas Hjalmarsson (Chicago) and Jason Demers (Florida) were acquired in the offseason and add to an already dynamic back end that features offensive-minded Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Alex Goligoski.

ABOUT THE DUCKS (2016-17: 46-23-13, 1st in Pacific Division): Injuries are once again the name of the game in Anaheim, which will be without center Ryan Kesler (hip) until at least Christmas and defensemen Hampus Lindholm (shoulder) and Sami Vatanen (shoulder) for the first few weeks of the season. Blue-liners Cam Fowler and Josh Manson are expected to log considerable minutes on the Ducks' back end in front of All-Star goaltender John Gibson (NHL fourth-best 2.22 GAA and .924 save percentage), who enjoyed a solid season before a lower-body injury forced him into the role of a spectator as Anaheim fell to Nashville in the Western Conference finals. Veteran Ryan Miller is an upgrade over Jonathan Bernier in the backup netminding role and should provide Gibson with well-timed breathers throughout the season.

OVERTIME

1. Anaheim's Rickard Rakell, who will shift from left wing to center in lieu of Kesler's injury, scored a team-leading 33 goals last season after mustering just 29 in his previous two.

2. Arizona saw leading scorer Radim Vrbata (20 goals, 35 assists) sign with the Florida Panthers in the offseason.

3. Coyotes D Jakob Chychrun is on injured reserve as he recovers from knee surgery in August.

PREDICTION: Ducks 5, Coyotes 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Arizona at Anaheim

W/L Trends

Arizona




Coyotes are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Pacific.
Coyotes are 42-86 in their last 128 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Coyotes are 17-36 in their last 53 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Coyotes are 18-39 in their last 57 Thursday games.
Coyotes are 4-9 in their last 13 overall.
Coyotes are 17-39 in their last 56 vs. Western Conference.
Coyotes are 7-19 in their last 26 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Coyotes are 14-45 in their last 59 road games.
Coyotes are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.







Anaheim




Ducks are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Ducks are 7-2 in their last 9 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Ducks are 39-16 in their last 55 vs. Pacific.
Ducks are 9-4 in their last 13 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Ducks are 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Ducks are 19-9 in their last 28 overall.
Ducks are 19-9 in their last 28 vs. Western Conference.
Ducks are 35-17 in their last 52 Thursday games.
Ducks are 35-17 in their last 52 home games.





OU Trends

Arizona




Under is 5-0 in Coyotes last 5 road games.
Under is 39-9-5 in Coyotes last 53 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Coyotes last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Coyotes last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Coyotes last 9 overall.
Over is 7-2 in Coyotes last 9 Thursday games.
Under is 8-3-4 in Coyotes last 15 vs. Pacific.
Under is 15-6-5 in Coyotes last 26 games following a win.
Under is 30-14-8 in Coyotes last 52 vs. Western Conference.







Anaheim




Over is 2-0-2 in Ducks last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-4 in Ducks last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over is 4-1-3 in Ducks last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 vs. Pacific.
Under is 5-2-3 in Ducks last 10 Thursday games.
Over is 15-6-7 in Ducks last 28 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.





Head to Head

Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Home team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Coyotes are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Anaheim.
Coyotes are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 10:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 5, 2017
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

Preview: Flyers at Kings Gracenote
Oct 5, 2017

The Los Angeles Kings hope to take advantage of a team playing for the second time in two nights when they open their 2017-18 season against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday. Los Angeles has had no success since winning its second Stanley Cup in three years in 2014, sandwiching a pair of non-playoff seasons around one in which it made a first-round exit.

The Kings are counting on a full season from former Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Quick, who was limited to 17 games last campaign due to a groin injury suffered in the 2016-17 opener. Philadelphia continues its season-opening four-game road trip after kicking it off with a 5-3 triumph at San Jose on Wednesday. Wayne Simmonds registered his second career hat trick while Jakub Voracek and defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere notched three assists apiece as the Flyers bounced back after squandering 2-0 and 3-2 leads. The club got off to a good start on the power play, converting three of its five opportunities, but it also allowed a pair of man-advantage goals.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network

ABOUT THE FLYERS (1-0-0): Philadelphia opened the season with five rookies on its roster, although only three were in the lineup against the Sharks. Robert Hagg, a 22-year-old Swedish defenseman, and 23-year-old left wing Taylor Leier received significant ice time, but all eyes were on Nolan Patrick. The 19-year-old center, who was selected second overall in last June's draft, registered three shots and blocked one while going 5-4 on faceoffs in 13 1/2 minutes of action.

ABOUT THE KINGS (2016-17: 39-35-8, 5th in Pacific): Jeff Carter led the club last season with 32 goals, marking the fourth time he reached the 30-goal plateau in his career and first since netting 36 in 2010-11 with Philadelphia. The Kings had only one other player hit the 20-goal mark as Tanner Pearson scored a career-high 24 in his second full season. More offense will be expected from veteran Mike Cammalleri, who returns to the team with which he spent his first five NHL seasons after recording only 10 goals in 61 games with New Jersey in 2016-17.

OVERTIME

1. Los Angeles' Alec Martinez (lower body) will begin the season on injured reserve and likely be replaced on the roster by fellow D Paul LaDue, who notched eight assists in 22 games last season - his first in the NHL.

2. Michal Neuvirth could get the start in goal for the Flyers after G Brian Elliott made 32 saves in his debut with the team on Wednesday.

3. The Kings will honor the victims of Sunday's tragic shooting in Las Vegas prior to the game and wear a special "CD" sticker on their helmets in memory of team employee Christiana Duarte, who was killed in the incident.

PREDICTION: Kings 4, Flyers 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Philadelphia at Los Angeles

W/L Trends

Philadelphia




Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Flyers are 10-24 in their last 34 vs. Pacific.
Flyers are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a win.
Flyers are 7-21 in their last 28 road games.
Flyers are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.







Los Angeles




Kings are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Kings are 25-11 in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Kings are 17-8 in their last 25 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Kings are 2-7 in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Kings are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.





OU Trends

Philadelphia




Over is 5-0 in Flyers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 8-1-2 in Flyers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Flyers last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Flyers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2-1 in Flyers last 10 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 17-5-4 in Flyers last 26 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-4-2 in Flyers last 15 vs. Pacific.







Los Angeles




Over is 2-0-2 in Kings last 4 overall.
Under is 5-1-1 in Kings last 7 vs. Metropolitan.
Under is 13-4-6 in Kings last 23 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 3-1-2 in Kings last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 12-4-5 in Kings last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 games following a win.
Under is 20-9-12 in Kings last 41 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 27-13-13 in Kings last 53 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 57-28-22 in Kings last 107 Thursday games.





Head to Head

Under is 6-1-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Flyers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
Road team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Over in tonight's NFL game.

It's hard to envision a scenario where this Patriots-Buccaneers games holds Under the total, as the New England defense has not shown that they are capable to stopping teams through the first 4 games they have played this season.

The Patriots have allowed an average of 32-points per game this season, but they have also been able to score at a just over 32-points per game clip as ALL 4 of the Pats games this season have sailed Over the posted price.

The Bucs have not been as prolific in their scoring, but they have played Overs in their last pair of games, and they have averaged 28-points per game in their first pair of home games this season. While it is not likely that Jameis Winston is going to outgun Tom Brady at this point in his career, I do think it is likely that Winston can get his licks in against this permissive New England stop-unit.

Big, big total, but I do expect some fireworks tonight, and I do expect this one to land Over the total.

Pats-Bucs to open Week 5 with an Over.

3* NEW ENGLAND-TAMPA BAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

Thursday night comp play is Under the total in the Yankees-Indians clash.

Things were wild in Tuesday's Wild Card game between Minnesota and New York, as the game saw a combined 6 runs plated in the very first inning en-route to an easy Over.

I do not see the runs flowing that freely tonight when Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer climb the hill.

The Under is 5-3-1 the last 9 series meetings between the teams, and it should be pointed out that Gray's lone start in a New York uniform versus the Indians did hole Under, while Bauer's lone start against the Yanks this season also landed Under the total.

Throw in Cleveland's 11-3 Under mark their last 14 postseason contests, and I think we are staring at no more than 7 combined runs this Thursday night.

Yanks-Tribe go Low.

4* N.Y. YANKEES-CLEVELAND UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Play: MLB Houston -165 to win the ALDS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: Take NY YANKEES/CLEVELAND OVER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Minnesota Wild/Detroit Red Wings under 5 1/2 goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: New York Rangers - 200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Nashville (NHL) + 125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Minnesota Wild - 140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Thursday: Take HOUSTON (Verlander) -130 over Boston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: NL Series Winner Houston -165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Boston/Houston under 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FREE play: Thurs: Indians w/ Bauer -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: MLB Boston/Houston Game OVER 7 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: Take NASHVILLE +125 over Boston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Los Angeles Kings - 165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

Brian's 9* MLB Electric Dog

NY Yankees vs. Cleveland, 10/05/2017 19:38 EDT

Money Line: +131 NY Yankees

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

I know how hot the Indians have been to end the season but in this matchup in the post season I love Sonny Grey here. Gray pitched better in the regular season and he has ace stuff. Can't beat the plus money value here. Invest a 9 unit investment in the Yankees tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tony's *5 nfl free pick

New England vs. Tampa Bay, 10/05/2017 20:25 EDT

Total: -115/+56 Under

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Fp: Pat's have struggled to start the season losing 2 of the first 4 and Tampa Bay had looked avrage on offense as well 57 points to win will be a chore making the under my nfl free pick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence Oct 05 '17, 8:25 PM

NFL | Patriots vs Bucs
Play on: OVER 55½ -110

Play - Buccaneers-Patriots OVER (Game 303).
Edges - Patriots 5-1 OVER last six games versus NFC South opponents; and 4-2 OVER versus NFC following an NFC games… Buccaneers: 3-1 OVER home versus AFC foe off SU loss… With these two teams having played OVER the total in 6 of their 7 combined games this season, we recommend a 1* on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

It is going to be very hard to side against Houston's Justin Verlander in this series lid-lifter, but my free pick for Thursday is on the Boston Red Sox in the matinee game.

If there is one game the Red Sox must have, it's Game 1 of this series. Boston ace Chris Sale is tabbed with the daunting task of shutting down a lineup that led the majors in batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.346), and slugging percentage (.478).

Quite a task, in defeating Verlander, and quieting the bats. But I'm taking the shot here, as Boston poses a serious threat and can challenge for this outright win.

And I say that with the utmost respect for what the Astros have done this season, but I have to lend credence to Sale, who is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA over six starts against the Red Sox, while producing 65 strikeouts against five walks in 48 innings.

Now, after 260 regular-season trips to the hill, Sale will make his first postseason start. I think he thrives. Play the Red Sox in this one.

4* RED SOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 5

Louisville @ NC State

Game 305-306
October 5, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
100.780
NC State
93.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 7 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 3 1/2
65 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-3 1/2); Over

Alcorn State @ Alabama St

Game 501-502
October 5, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alcorn State
53.463
Alabama St
40.742
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alcorn State
(-10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 5

Thursday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at NC State

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack (+3, 65.5)

North Carolina State served notice it was a team to be reckoned with in late September when it toppled then-No. 11 Florida State in Tallahassee, and coach Dave Doeren's squad will get another chance to prove it has some staying power less than two weeks later. The 24th-ranked Wolfpack eye their first 3-0 start in ACC play since 2002 and a fifth straight victory overall Thursday when they host No. 17 Louisville.

"We're a lot more mature than we have been in the past. A lot of guys in the past would've been like 'Oh we beat the (No. 11) team so we don't have to come out as hard this week.' We just all executed exactly what we needed to do," N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb told reporters following last weekend's 33-25 win over Syracuse. The victory gave the Wolfpack their first 2-0 start in the conference since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a blemish in the ACC's Atlantic Division. In case his team needs any additional motivation on a short week, Doeren must only remind the Wolfpack of last season's 54-13 rout in which Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of overmatched opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 setback to No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 16 and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number dropped slightly to 3 on Thursday morning. The total hit the betting boards at 62 and jumped all of the way up to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisville - OL C. Bentley (Questionable, Concussion), RB C. Wilson (Questionable, Knee), DL D. Bailey (Questionable, Ankle), WR J. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Wrist), RB J. Smith (Out For Season, Toe), CB J. Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR D. Peete (Out For Season, Knee), RB D. Williams (Out For Season, Knee).

NC State - WR K. Harmon (Probable, Shoulder), S D. Wright (Probable, Groin), LB R. Nicholson (Questionable, Groin), DE D. Holden (Questionable, Upper Body), RB D. Nichols (Out For Season, Knee), DT D. Johnson (Out For Season, Lower Body), RB M. Braxton (Out For Season, Lower Body), CB J. Valdez (Out For Season, Knee), DB F. Phillips Jr. (Out For Season, Achilles), DB T. Meadows (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB I. Moore (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), RB E. Collins (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), DE X. Lyas (Out Indefinitely, Suspension).

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his program-best 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman's school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last time out. Dez Fitzpatrick finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State and has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in school history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Junior quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257, ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (ACC-high 71.9). Nyheim Hines, a 5-9, 197-pound track All-American, has transitioned smoothly to running back after being used as a flex player in his first two seasons and ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind Mario Williams (55.5).

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
* Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Cardinals are getting 68 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals wagers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, October 5

Montreal @ Buffalo

Game 51-52
October 5, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
8.718
Buffalo
12.324
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
-130
5
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+110); Under

Nashville @ Boston

Game 53-54
October 5, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
11.467
Boston
10.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nashville
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nashville
(+110); Under

Colorado @ NY Rangers

Game 55-56
October 5, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
9.828
NY Rangers
10.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Rangers
-200
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(-200); Over

Washington @ Ottawa

Game 57-58
October 5, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
12.792
Ottawa
9.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
N/A

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 59-60
October 5, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
9.130
Detroit
12.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+120); Under

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Game 61-62
October 5, 2017 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
12.460
Chicago
10.046
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

Philadelphia @ Los Angeles

Game 63-64
October 5, 2017 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
9.445
Los Angeles
12.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 3 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
-165
5
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(-165); Over

Arizona @ Anaheim

Game 65-66
October 5, 2017 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
10.572
Anaheim
11.997
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
N/A

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (49-29-0-10, 108 pts.) at BUFFALO (33-37-0-12, 78 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 277-247 ATS (+19.3 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE (55-36-0-13, 123 pts.) at BOSTON (46-32-0-10, 102 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 34-40 ATS (-20.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-17 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 3-1-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (22-56-0-4, 48 pts.) at NY RANGERS (54-32-0-8, 116 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 22-60 ATS (+103.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 21-7 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 116-92 ATS (+215.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-1 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (62-24-0-9, 133 pts.) at OTTAWA (55-36-0-10, 120 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-1 (+3.7 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.3 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (50-27-0-10, 110 pts.) at DETROIT (33-36-0-13, 79 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (66-28-0-13, 145 pts.) at CHICAGO (50-26-0-10, 110 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-0 (+4.2 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (39-33-0-10, 88 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (39-35-0-8, 86 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 241-255 ATS (-91.4 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 39-43 ATS (-5.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 16-18 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 3-1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (30-42-0-10, 70 pts.) at ANAHEIM (56-29-0-14, 126 pts.) - 10/5/2017, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-5 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 5-4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.7 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, October 5

Trend Report

8:00 PM
COLORADO vs. NY RANGERS
Colorado is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 6 games when playing Colorado
NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Colorado

8:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. BUFFALO
Montreal is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. BOSTON
Nashville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games at home
Boston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing at home against Minnesota

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. OTTAWA
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

9:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CHICAGO
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

11:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ANAHEIM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games
Anaheim is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Anaheim is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home

11:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Los Angeles's last 15 games when playing Philadelphia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, October 5

Montreal won four of its last six games with Buffalo; visitors are 6-4 in last ten series games. Canadiens won three of last five visits here. Over is 4-2-3 in last nine series games. Montreal lost in six games to the Rangers in LY’s playoffs, scoring total of 4 goals in losing last three games. Sabres didn’t make the playoffs; they lost five of their last six games.

Home side won 8 of last 10 Nashville-Boston games; Predators lost four of last five visits to Boston. Last four series games stayed under the total. Nashville lost Stanley Cup final LY; they got shut out in last two games. Bruins lost in six games to Ottawa LY; four of last five games in series went overtime.

Colorado lost four of last five games with the Rangers; road team won five of last six series tilts. Avalanche are 3-2 in last five visits to Manhattan- they missed the playoffs LY; losing 8 of their last ten games. Rangers lost to Ottawa in six games in LY’s playoffs.

Washington won 7 of its last 9 games with Ottawa; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Caps are 3-2 in last five visits to Ottawa. Washington lost in 7 games to the Penguins in the playoffs LY- they won four of last five road games. Senators also lost to Pittsburgh in seven games, losing Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final in OT.

Minnesota lost four of last six games with Detroit; home side won last four series games. Over is 4-2-3 in last nine series games. Wild lost last three visits to Motor City, all by one goal- they lost to St Louis in five games in playoffs LY. Red Wings didn’t make playoffs LY, which is rare; they lost five of their last seven games.

Pittsburgh won the last two Stanley Cups, but they’ve lost six games in a row to Chicago, losing last five visits to Windy City, scoring one goal in each of last four. Penguins raised Stanley Cup banner at home last night, before they lost in OT to St Louis. Blackhawks lost their last four regular season games, then got swept out of playoffs by Nashville in four straight.

Philadelphia lost three of its last four games with Los Angeles; road team lost 8 of last 10 series games. Flyers won three of last four visits to Staples Center. Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Philly won 5-3 in San Jose last night. Kings didn’t make playoffs LY; they were 4-5 in their last nine games.

Arizona lost five of last six games with Anaheim; they were outscored 13-5 in losing last three visits to the Pond. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Coyotes didn’t make playoffs LY; they lost four of their last five road games. Ducks lost in six games in the playoffs to Nashville last spring.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 5

New England @ Tampa Bay

Game 303-304
October 5, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.225
Tampa Bay
128.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 13
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-5); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Thursday, October 5

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Patriots at Buccaneers

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 54)

Tom Brady is finally up against a defense that he might not be able to overcome -- his own. Despite a sensational start to the season by two-time league MVP Brady, the New England Patriots have allowed three of their first four opponents to score at least 30 points as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.

The reigning Super Bowl champions have already lost twice at home following Sunday's 33-30 setback to the Carolina Panthers -- a division rival of Tampa Bay. "We haven't been really in control too often," said Brady, who rallied his team from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit in Sunday's last-second loss. "We are all really focused on trying to do a much better job than what we've done." The Buccaneers, who had their Week 1 matchup postponed due to Hurricane Irma, have sandwiched a pair of home wins around a 17-point loss at Minnesota. Quarterback Jameis Winston is coming off his best game of the season and gets back top running back Doug Martin, who returns after a suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-7) - Bucs (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as five-point road favorites and overnight Wednesday that number went up to 5.5. The total hit the betting boards at 53.5 and that number jumped two full points up to 55.5 before dropping back to 54 heading into game day.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - TE Rob Gronkowski (Probable, Thigh), OL M. Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), CB S. Gilmore (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Hightower (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), RB R. Burkhead (Out, Ribs), DB E. Rowe (Out, Groin), DB B. King (Questionable, Hamstring), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Out, Knee), WR M. Mitchell (Out, Knee), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).

Buccaneers - LB K. Alexander (Out, Hamstring), S T. Ward (Doubtful, Hip), S K. Tandy (Doubtful, Hip), LB L. David (Out, Knee), QB R. Griffin (Out, Shoulder), DL D. Lambert (I-R, Wrist), DT S. Tu'ikolovatu (I-R, Knee), DE J. Trattou (I-R, Undisclosed).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U): Brady turned in a pedestrian effort in the season opener but he has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games while completing at least 71 percent of his passes in each. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 18 receptions and two touchdowns while averaging 95 yards receiving over the past three, but wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been inconsistent in his first season with the team. The ground game also has been spotty, although running back James White has a team-high 22 receptions. The defense has been a sieve, allowing a staggering 456.8 yards per game -- by far the league worst -- and ranking 31st with 32.0 points per game.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): It's unclear how much of a role Martin, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, will play in his season debut, although Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 83 yards on 16 carries. Winston, the top overall pick in 2015, bounced back from a three-interception performance at Minnesota by throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns to rally Tampa Bay to a 25-23 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. He connected with each of his tight ends -- Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard -- for TD passes last week but Mike Evans is his favorite target with 19 catches for 227 yards and two scores. Injured linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are both expected to sit out their second straight game.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 5.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
* Over is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers last 7 Thursday games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Patriots at a rate of 58 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds

The division series round opens with a tremendous pitching matchup when Boston's Chris Sale goes toe-to-toe with Astros'

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-130, 7)

Series tied 0-0

The Houston Astros battled all the way into the final weekend in the race for the best record in the American League and fell just short, leaving them to host the third-seeded AL East champion Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday. The second-seeded Astros made the biggest move of the waiver deadline period by bringing in Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers and will send him to the mound in Game 1.

Verlander brings a 7-5 record and a 3.39 ERA in 16 career postseason starts to a Houston squad that led the AL in team batting average at .282 and features probable MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve. "I think that's the main goal, just be able to keep your feel, be able to come into the start, and be consistent," Verlander told reporters of his approach to the game. "As a starting pitcher, that's what it's about. I'm going to do whatever I can to help maintain my mechanics and the feel on the mound." The Red Sox will counter with Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, who struggled in September but had the luxury of taking the final day of the regular season off after Boston beat the Astros on Saturday to clinch the AL East. The Astros took three of four in that series and four of seven from the Red Sox during the regular season and went 48-33 at Minute Maid Park.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, MLB Network

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36)

Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA over his final eight starts and struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, including his final start against Toronto on Sept. 26 in which he served up four home runs. The Florida native will be making his first career postseason start and is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best."

Verlander earned his spot at the top of the Astros postseason rotation by going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the team. The former MVP allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision. "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself."

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
* Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
* Astros are 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts since joining the team.
* Over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts overall.
* Over is 10-2 in Astros' last 12 Divisional Playoff games.
* Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Astros with 60 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a surprising 58 percent of the totals wagers.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (-135, 8.5)

Series tied 0-0

Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season, and Joe Girardi took that philosophy a step further while guiding the New York Yankees to the American League Division Series with a win in the wild-card game Tuesday. Girardi will try to find a way to beat Francona and the best team in the AL when the Yankees visit the top-seeded Indians in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday.

Girardi got 26 outs from his bullpen after yanking starter Luis Severino with one out and three runs in in the first inning Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins, and Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. "If you're playing four games in five nights, it's really difficult to do," Girardi told reporters of leaning heavily on the relievers. "You can do it probably two of the games of the four, but you can't do it back to back. And a lot of times you can -- if you were to do it on Game 2, you probably can't even do it on Game 3, even with the off-day in between." Francona rode left-hander Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. Cleveland surprised some by choosing Trevor Bauer to start Game 1 over ace Corey Kluber, while New York is expected to counter with Sonny Gray.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19)

Gray went 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts after being acquired from the Oakland Athletics prior to the trade deadline but struggled some in September, surrendering nine home runs in 35 1/3 innings. The Vanderbilt product, who lost at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3, was ripped for six runs on six hits - two homers - over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA.

Bauer aided the Indians' sprint to the finish by going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 13 games (12 starts) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those 13 outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and the UCLA product breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 frames and striking out 11. Bauer, who gets the start over Cy Young candidate Kluber so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS, went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason.

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.
* Indians are 42-9 in their last 51 overall.
* Indians are 6-0 in Bauer's last 6 starts vs. American League East.
* Under is 5-1 in Bauer's last 6 starts overall.
* Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Cleveland.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Indians with 77 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a 62 percent of the totals wagers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 5

Boston @ Houston

Game 935-936
October 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Sale) 16.883
Houston
(Verlnder) 17.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
7
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-125); Over

NY Yankees @ Cleveland

Game 937-938
October 5, 2017 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Gray) 16.486
Cleveland
(Bauer) 17.694
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-135); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (93 - 69) at HOUSTON (101 - 61) - 4:05 PM
CHRIS SALE (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 0-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 7-11 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
SALE is 3-9 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SALE is 22-32 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 101-61 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 44-25 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 12-22 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-24 (-13.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 48-43 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-39 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-23 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+0.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SALE is 5-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.31 and a WHIP of 0.708.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 5-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.105.
His team's record is 8-10 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (102 - 60) - 7:35 PM
SONNY GRAY (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 19-30 (-11.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
NY YANKEES are 11-22 (-13.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 14-20 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 48-43 (-7.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
GRAY is 19-30 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 6-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 4-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 20-27 (-18.5 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 206-132 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 95-47 (+28.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 27-7 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 98-66 (+18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 24-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 47-31 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-24 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-2 (+3.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

SONNY GRAY vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
GRAY is 3-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.146.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BAUER is 3-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.511.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, October 5

Trend Report

4:08 PM
BOSTON vs. HOUSTON
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home

7:38 PM
NY YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND
NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, October 5

Boston @ Houston
Astros are 4-3 vs Boston this season; road team won five of the seven games. Astros were just in Beantown last weekend, taking 3 of 4 mostly meaningless games.

Sale is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over. This is his first playoff game. He is 5-1, 1.31 in six career starts vs Houston, but none were this year.

Verlander is 5-0, 1.06 in five starts since coming to Houston (under 4-1). He is 4-2, 1.76 in his last 8 playoff starts.

Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

New York @ Cleveland
New York is 2-5 vs Cleveland this season; road teams won five of the seven games. Losing team scored 1 or 2 runs in six of the seven games.

Gray is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-2 in his starts for New York. He is 1-2, 5.94 vs Cleveland this season. New York is 2-4 in his road starts.

Bauer is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-0, 1.38 vs New York this season. Cleveland is 6-2 in his last eight home starts.

New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs.

Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Brayman

Now about this complimentary winner

My free play is going to be short and sweet, as I won't go too long on this. I like the New England Patriots to win and cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I don't see how the Patriots fall to 2-3 on the year, and think off a short week, we're going to see New England respond against an upstart Tampa Bay team that will fall short in its quest to knock off the defending champs.

I know the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, but at some point the mad scientist in Bill Belichick has to come out, and I think this is the spot.

Last time the Pats were on Thursday night, they lost the season-opener to the still-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Knowing the pride of this team, it will be looking to avenge that loss, and last week's, hoping to stay on track and above .500. Lay the road chalk.

1* PATRIOTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Washington vs. Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa +115

The story is beginning to become VERY old. The Caps went 55-19-8 in capturing the NHL's toughest division (Metropolitan) and the team's 118 points gave them the Presidents' Trophy. However, just like in the previous season, Washington was eliminated in the second round of the playoffs by the Penguins, who went on to win their second straight Stanley Cup. That's 111 wins the last two seasons and NOTHING to show for it! The Ottawa Senators were 44-28-10 (2nd in Atlantic Division) and advanced to the conference finals before finally bowing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in double overtime Game 7.

Washington captain Alex Ovechkin dipped to 33 goals after three consecutive 50-goal campaigns but he still tied for the league high with 17 power-play tallies. Washington lost a pair of 24-goal scorers in Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams but there is plenty of offensive talent. Center Nicklas Backstrom had 23 goals and was second in the league with 63 assists, while T.J. Oshie (33 goals) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (59 points) are dangerous attackers. The departures of Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt on the blue line makes for real concern, leaving Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen and John Carlson as the top defensemen. Fortunately the Capitals still have goalie Braden Holtby, who is coming off three straight 40-win seasons.

The Ottawa Senators will be without their best player tonight at Canadian Tire Centre against the Capitals. Defenseman Erik Karlsson, who had off-season ankle surgery, has been practicing in a "no contact" jersey for almost two weeks, but Senators coach Guy Boucher said his captain's status remains a "day-to-day thing."Karlsson revealed that half his ankle bone was removed during the June surgery, so all eyes will be on the player who led the team with 71 points in the regular season before collecting 18 points in 19 postseason contests. Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone each scored at least 22 goals but Ottawa will be expecting more from Bobby Ryan and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who combined for 25 goals in the regular season before lighting it up in the playoffs. Marc Methot's departure left a hole on the blue line that was plugged with the signing of veteran Johnny Oduya. Goaltender Craig Anderson had a trying season off the ice while his wife battled cancer, but he registered five shutouts in only 40 starts and has one of the league's top backups in Mike Condon.

Nobody believes the Senators, as they are currently assembled, can go any higher than they did last spring but this is just opening night. The Senators lost their last three preseason games by a combined score of 22-6, which I believe has lowered expectations here and even without Karlsson, they'll get teh better of the Caps.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Oct 05 '17, 4:05 PM

MLB | Red Sox vs Astros

Play on: Red Sox +122 at 5Dimes

10* FREE MLB PICK (Red Sox +122)
I'll gladly back Chris Sale and the Red Sox in Game 1 of this ALDS. Unlike some of the other pitching performances we have seen so far in the playoffs, I look for Sale to dominate in his first ever postseason start. Pitching away from home won't be a problem, as Sale went 10-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 19 road starts. He's also 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.708 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Astros. Boston is 4-1 in Sale's last 5 starts during Game 1 of a series and 7-2 in his last 9 road starts. Give me the Red Sox +122!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Oct 05 '17, 4:05 PM

MLB | BOS vs HOU
Play on: UNDER 7 +100

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Red Sox/Astros UNDER 7

In this battle of ace vs. ace in Game 1 of the Boston/Houston series, we'll side with the UNDER. Chris Sale has been dominant all season, while Justin Verlander has been untouchable since being traded to Houston for just this reason.

Sale is 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 32 starts this season, striking out a whopping 308 batters in the process. He's 10-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 19 road starts as well. Sale has owned the Astros, going 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.708 WHIP in six career starts against them.

Verlander is 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.175 WHIP in 33 starts, including 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 15 home starts. He is 5-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA since being traded from Detroit. Verlander is also 5-6 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 18 career starts against Boston.

Verlander is 17-3 UNDER vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Sale is 11-1 UNDER when working on 7 or more days' rest in his career. Verlander is 26-8 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Oct 05 '17, 4:05 PM

MLB | BOS vs HOU
Play on: UNDER 7 +100

1* on Red Sox vs Astros under 7 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Oct 05 '17, 7:35 PM

MLB | NYY vs CLE
Play on: UNDER 8½ -115

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Yankees/Indians UNDER 8.5

This is a very big total for two teams that feature arguably the best bullpens in baseball. And it's not like Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer are slouches. Gray has posted a 3.55 ERA in 27 starts and a 3.11 ERA in 12 road starts. Bauer is 17-9 with a 4.19 ERA on the season and 10-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 17 home starts. He has been dominant in the second half of the season. Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against the Yankees this season. Gray is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA in eight previous starts against the Indians. Give me the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

NC St +3.5
Buccaneers +5
Indians -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sports Consensus

CFB Arkansas St. -9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

CFB Ark. St. over 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks

MLB Rockies over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monster Sports Picks

NHL Edmonton -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ace / Line Beaters

NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsbook Advisor

NFL TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Dog LB

MLB BOSTON RED SOX +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mikey Money

MLB CLEVELAND INDIANS ‑130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Shadow Sports Syndicate

NHL NEW YORK RANGERS ‑190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Shelf Sports Pick

NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑240

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Allen Sports

Thursday's Free Selection is on the Anaheim Ducks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Thursday Selection

Buffalo +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: Montreal Canadiens - 130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 10/5 MLB ASTROS -141

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Kenny Towers

Un 66 Lou/NCST - NCAAF -

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays Oct 05 '17, 4:05 PM

MLB | Red Sox vs Astros
Play on: Astros -130 at betonline

1* Free Play on Astros -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eric Schroeder

I'll be real honest with this free pick, it looked far too easy to expect North Carolina State to steal this one at home, and I think the oddsmakers are begging you to take the home underdog. So I'm going to lay the chalk - after buying a half point off the field goal line - and take the Louisville Cardinals with Lamar Jackson.

Personally, I think whichever team seizes momentum early will have a big advantage, and I'm putting the onus on Lousivlle to do so, like last year. Remember when the Cardinals scored with authority early, opening a 17-0 lead after one quarter and 44-0 at halftime?

Through five games this season, Louisville has generated the most plays of 10 or more yards in the country, and if it can stretch the field in this game, chewing up yards and clock, the Wolpack will suffer terribly and struggle to keep up offensively.

Yes, the Pack is ranked and it is at home. But with the game close at the end, the Cardinals are going to ice this game with covering score late.

Take the road chalk.

5* LOUISVILLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin Oct 05 '17, 7:05 PM

NHL | Canadiens vs Sabres
Play on: Sabres +117 at 5Dimes

#NHL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Buffalo Sabres will start the new season by hosting Atlantic Division rival Montreal Canadiens at KeyBank Center Thursday night. I like the price we get on the Sabres in this contest.
Buffalo is led by third-year center Jack Eichel who signed an NHL-maximum eight-year, $80 million contract on Tuesday. Note that he led the Sabres in scoring last year, despite missing the first 21 games of the season due to injury and he'll be looking to show the home town crowd he's worth the new contract. The Sabres have a new head coach in Phil Housley, who was the assistant coach for the Nashville Predators last year, hopefully bringing some fresh ideas.
Montreal is the defending Atlantic Division champion and has one of the best netminders in the game in Carey Price. We can however note that Price is just 14-12-8 in previous meetings with the Sabres. These teams split their four meetings last year, so the Sabres know how to beat the Habs and Price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Sports Picks

MLB Astros -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service

CFB Louisville over 65.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

MLB Cleveland -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monster Sports Picks

CFB Louisville -170 ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Picks

CFB NC State +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Duffy

TNF Total From Sizzling and Proven Handicapper

New England vs. Tampa Bay, 10/05/2017 20:25 EDT

Total: -110/+54½ Over

Sportsbook:
Bodog

No. 1 in preseason football, No. 4 in college football, No. 8 in regular season NFL, Joe Duffy again is winning as steady as he has for nearly 30 years since the score phones.

Very big guaranteed portfolio. Get Wise Guy winners on the college and NFL sides, plus college total. Profit is guaranteed.
New England vs. Tampa Bay free pick

" Pats No. 2 over team, going over all four by 15.5 points per game
" Pats third worst spread team at -8.8 and 1-3
" Teams with a worse winning percentage yet still a road favorite of 3.5 or more are 18-12
" Tom Brady off a loss is 30-10 against the spread and 20-3 on the road
" Bill Belichick has never won in Tampa as an assistant or head coach
" Biggest regular season game in Tampa history
" Tampa gets back Doug Martin from suspension this week
o 4,227 career yards rushing for 4.2 but just 2.9 yards per rush last year
" Two solid TE in Cameron Brate and OJ Howard
" DeSean Jackson only nine catches but Martin could open things up
" Brady has been sacked 13 times, seventh in the league
" Patriots 9-3 favorites
" Slightly below median consensus for road favorites and modest percentage over, less than normal

Free pick is: OVER

[New York Knight]

Red Sox are 1-5 in last 6 ALDS road games.

Astros are 11-2 in last 13 at home & 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts with HOU.


BOS +120 / HOU -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Computer Gambler

Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Astros -128

Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games.

The Astros are 14-2 ON since Sep 12, 2017 as a favorite
The Astros are 11-2 ON since Aug 31, 2017 as a home favorite

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY +5 over New England

The Buccaneers don't get a lot of attention, as Tampa isn't exactly New York City, but the home squad has ripped off six straight at Raymond James Stadium. Thursday’s game against the Patriots is sold out, which is a big deal for the Bucs, as they ranked in the bottom third in stadium capacity percentage in 2016. With young talented players like Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, the Bucs have been a sexy preseason sleeper in recent years but have not fulfilled those lofty expectations. After their season was delayed in Week 1 because of Hurricane Irma, Tampa opened their season in Week 2 with a rousing 29-7 win over the Bears. The defense feasted with four turnovers in a big emotional victory after a huge regional disaster. We are willing to forgive the Bucs Week 3 loss in Minnesota, as it looked to be a big letdown spot and we acted accordingly by posting the Vikes as an official play. Last week against the Giants, the Bucs needed a last-second field goal to beat a winless team but it seems that did little to impress the market. However, we liked what we saw from the offense, as Winston threw for 300 yards and three TD’s against a Giants’ secondary that still has respect around the league and that Pro Football Focus ranked number one coming into 2017. Through three games, the Bucs offense is ranked ninth in yards per game (362.3) and Winston is sixth in yards per attempt. The Buccaneers should also get a jump start from returning running back Doug Martin. The two time Pro Bowler is loved by his teammates who he remained close with during his suspension. Fellow runner Charles Sims said, “He brings life and energy. He's a game-changer”. Martin took part in the entire offseason program, training camp and the preseason and it sounds like his presence will bring a boost to the locker room.

On the surface, one doesn’t have to look far to see that the weakness of these Patriots is their defense. New England is 32nd in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game; only the Colts are worse. Last year, the Pats played a lot more aggressive at the corners mostly in press/man coverage so it looked like the perfect fit when they signed high priced free agent corner Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo, a specialist in that defensive scheme. Instead, this season the Patriots have played far more zone than man leaving Gilmore totally out of his element and in Bill Belichick’s doghouse after he was benched in the third quarter of Sundays 33-30 loss to the Panthers. That score actually flatters the Patriots, who were down 30-16 with 12:58 left in the fourth quarter. It was the second week in a row the Pats were forced to come back in the final frame but this week they came up short. One of the Patriots biggest weaknesses last season was their inability to cover another team’s number one receiver. Gilmore was supposed to be that guy to plug that hole but after four weeks the Patriots are dead last in that category. It’s not just Gilmore that’s been the issue either. The Patriots defense as a group is also at the bottom of the barrel in defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average). The Patriots defense is so bad they drag the number two offense all they down to 22nd in total DVOA behind teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, not exactly AFC powerhouses. New England is now 2-2 but has been statistically dominated in three of their four games by Kansas City in Week 1, by Houston in Week 3 and by Carolina four days ago. The Pats should be 1-3 but it will take a lot more than one loss to scare the market off Tom Brady and company.

The case for the Patriots is superficial at best and just having Tom Brady isn’t enough. We’ve heard New England rarely plays poorly after a loss but previous results do not matter. However, a big win over New Orleans in Week 2 after getting crushed by the Chiefs is fresh in the market’s mind helping to support that flawed logic. In reality, the Pats probably shouldn’t even be favored in this spot but they are still way too popular to not be spotting points in just about every game they play. Holding court against the Super Bowl champs is a big game on any team’s schedule but add the bright lights of a prime time game and this could be the breakout game that brings the Bucs to the dance. The Patriots are the more flawed team here spotting road points on three day’s rest. Tampa is very worthy of a money line play here but we’ll play it safe and take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Series Wager: N.Y. Yankees +170 over CLEVELAND

We could reach for an intertwined description to frame the upcoming ALDS battle between the Yankees and Indians but, really, this is a series of two teams with two distinct identities. On one side, we have the notorious Yankees—the Evil Empire, the next great New York dynasty, the financial powerhouse built like a small-market team with a roster perfect for the postseason. On the other, the Indians—the defending AL champions, the owners of a record-breaking 22-game winning streak, the electrifying and fun-loving roster which features Francisco Lindor’s smile and a complete set of baseball dolls. These two clubs are vastly different and unmistakably unique and that should make for a hell of a five-game series.

This is undoubtedly going to come up several times over the next couple of days, so we’ll get it out of the way now—the Indians and Yankees hold the two best run differentials in baseball, with Cleveland leading at +254 and New York second at +198. The two clubs’ offenses have played a major role in that, as the Yankees and Indians have scored the second- and sixth-most runs in baseball, respectively.

The first thing you might have noticed with the Yankees is that, by our measures, their lineup is ostensibly top-heavy. The first four batters are responsible for 80 percent of the order’s WARP, and there’s a serious drop-off past Gregorius. This observation held true in the club’s Wild Card win against the Twins, as the first four in the lineup scored all of the Yankees’ eight runs, going 7 for 15 with a double and three home runs in the process.

That said, the bottom half of the lineup isn’t quite as poor as it’s made out to be here: Castro’s missed time but remains a .300 hitter (albeit with few walks in the process), Bird’s now healthy and had a very good September; Hicks, Ellsbury, and Frazier all have their strengths as well. The Indians boast a more balanced lineup, one which can find myriad ways to beat you and rarely lets up. The dynamic Indians’ middle infield serves as the heartbeat, but look past Lindor and Ramirez and you’ll just find more quality bats.

Although Kipnis is having a down season, skipper Terry Francona trusts him high in the order for good reason—the center fielder upped his game in September and has an excellent track record. Following the front three is a trio of potent power bats: New additions Encarnacion and Bruce, plus a familiar face in Santana, combined for 97 home runs. Oh, and the next man up, Chisenhall, is no slouch himself but after missing two months with an injury, the lefty has hit just .224/.296/.306 in September. Alas, the bottom of the Tribes lineup features two rather unspectacular slots, as a Perez and Yan Gomes timeshare isn’t going to do much damage, nor will sophomore Urshela and his light bat.

There was a push among some New York beat writers to start Romine in the Wild Card game and put Sanchez at DH due to passed ball concerns but, luckily, the Yankees passed on that idea. You can read that ‘idea’ as a compliment toward Romine, but he’s about as ‘backup catcher’ as you can get. Speaking of embracing roles, Torreyes has been a key player for the Yankees this season, both filling in admirably at second base while Castro was out, and serving as an excellent utility infielder for the Yankees. There’s also Clint Frazier, the talented rookie (and former top prospect in the Indians’ system) who got off to a fast start but was injured and hasn’t been productive since. He might get some pinch-hitting chances and can play the outfield decently enough, but don’t expect a big role for Red Thunder just yet.

The real thumpers off the bench for New York are Chase Headley and Matt Holliday, two players who very well could have started in the Wild Card game and will likely see starts in this series. Headley rebounded from a shaky first half to hit a robust .300/.366/.455 after the All-Star break, while Holliday had the opposite season script after getting off to an excellent start and falling off the rails following an illness. The 37-year-old was somewhat better in September, but ‘better’ only means so much when you hit .130 between June and July.

The Indians’ pine is intriguing as well. The timeshare between Gomes and Perez isn’t an ideal situation, but it always leaves a very capable player available for later in games. Both players could start for some teams but, as they say in football: If you have two quarterbacks (catchers, in this case), you don’t have any. They’re also stacked in the outfield—Austin Jackson has been an extremely pleasant surprise and wouldn’t be out of place hitting at the top of the Indians’ order. Coincidentally, he might just find himself in that role in this series if Francona decides to go with him instead of Kipnis. Brantley isn’t healthy enough to play the field after missing a month with an ankle sprain so, for now, he’ll remain an excellent pinch hitter who could see his role expand soon.

Here’s the bad news for the Indians: They lack a southpaw in the rotation, and the Yankees’ offense have been weaker against lefties in 2017. Here’s the good news: they have Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and (possibly) Corey Kluber again.

Francona took a unique approach to his playoff rotation, one which sparked a couple of minor controversies upon its announcement. The first of which was to start Kluber in the second game of the series, rather than in the first, as aces traditionally do. It’s an interesting move by the club’s manager—pushing Kluber back allows the club to start him in a (possible) game five on normal rest. Then again, planning for a game five as heavy favorites is a questionable tactic. Either way, Trevor Bauer will get the ball first, barring a drone attack. He’s been mediocre overall on the season, but more importantly has a 3.01 ERA in the second half and looked excellent down the stretch. Still, Francona could be accused of over-managing here, as Bauer doesn’t strike fear into the opposition like Kluber does. Not starting Kluber may work out but in a short five-game series, winning Game 1 is huge. Bauer is not a Game 1 starter and he knows it. He’ll be pitching under some serious pressure here.

Kluber starts Game 2 so not much more needs to be said about that. Game 3 is started by Carlos Carrasco, who has been excellent all year but then comes that second controversy: the club’s fourth starter. Francona had a tough decision, as he had to pick between Josh Tomlin, Mike Clevinger, and Danny Salazar. You can check the next section for Clevinger and Salazar’s statistics, but there’s a good argument for all three getting the start. But one can imagine that the team’s manager knows best, so Josh Tomlin it is.

The Yankees are a bit less… weird in their rotation alignment. With Severino used up following a Wild Card dud in which he recorded just one out and allowed three runs, the Yankees’ second ace, Gray, will take the mound. CC Sabathia is next, followed by Tanaka, who is coming off a career-best 15 strikeout performance to cap off a disappointing season.

Severino will then take the hill if needed in Game 4, hoping to come out with calmer nerves. If you’re looking for precedent here, Severino also seemed to get too amped up for his first start at home against the Red Sox this season and allowed 10 runs in his worst outing of the year. The next time he faced Boston? Six innings and just one unearned run. Severino has the stuff and he learned another lesson on Tuesday night.

Game 5 for the Yankees has yet to be officially unannounced, but one has to imagine that Gray would take the mound again on an extra day of rest. You already know about the Yankees’ bullpen—its dominance was the biggest factor in the club’s 8-4 victory in the Wild Card so allow the numbers speak for themselves here; this is probably the best bullpen in baseball, and it isn’t hard to see why.

The Indians aren’t exactly lacking in relief talent, either. They have one of the best relievers we’ve ever seen in the incredible Andrew Miller, and he’s backed up by the excellent Cody Allen and Joe Smith. The rest of the bullpen is made up of very solid depth.

Managers

In most circumstances, I’d shy away from this section of a playoff preview; it can be challenging to accurately capture a manager’s impact, and putting a magnifying glass on individual skippers can lead to some inaccurate conclusions. But this time is different. In one dugout, we have one of the best managers in baseball. In the other dugout, we have one of the best managers in baseball. Terry Francona’s creative moves this past October might have changed the way postseason bullpen roles are viewed for years to come. Joe Girardi hasn’t had quite the same impact, but his daring choice to go with a bullpen game after Severino’s struggles in the Wild Card game was a huge reason for the Yankees’ victory. If he hadn’t thought on his feet and expertly managed a bullpen for 8 2/3 dominating innings, we could be talking about the Twins right now.

Defense

You’ll hear about Sanchez’s defense one way or another in this series—either because commenters will be lauding his arm or lamenting over a passed ball. While he possesses a cannon behind the plate, he led all big-league catchers in passed balls, and some of his slip-ups have come at critical times. Other than that, the only big thing to watch with the Yankees is whether Hicks or Ellsbury is patrolling the outfield, as one of them had the hardest throw in baseball last year while the other has a wet noodle for an arm. For Cleveland, well, just enjoy the show from Lindor.

The Wager

Considering the Indians are the World Series favorites and rightfully so, a reasonable person would choose them over the Wild Card Yankees. But, well, the Yankees aren’t an easy opponent. They have a heck of an offense—probably better than Cleveland’s, in fact—and they also have an advantage with their bullpen. As a result, it all comes down to the starting pitching. Can the Indians’ three dominant pitchers (Kluber, Carrasco, and Kluber) shut down the Yankees’ high-powered offense? Can the Yankees make up for their inferior rotation with an elite bullpen and plenty of dingers? It’s a closer matchup than you’d think and perhaps, just perhaps, the Indians peaked a bit too early. At the end of the day, it’s always about value and as a big price in an evenly matched series, the Yankees have to be the play.

Note: We are passing on the Astros/Red Sox. We prefer the Astronauts in the series but we’re not interested in spotting a price. We’ll play that series individually if something comes up that looks good. We’ll have the NL series and games posted tomorrow.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +145 over LOS ANGELES

OT included. The Los Angeles Kings made some major changes this offseason but it didn’t come on the ice. L.A. fired both general manager Dean Lombardi and head coach Darryl Sutter and replaced them with Rob Blake and John Stevens. Stevens has an established coaching track record at a variety of levels including the NHL when he served as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Flyers from 2006-09. With the Flyers his club had a 120-109-34 record while leading the Flyers to the Eastern Conference Final in 2008. However, he also had seven 20-goal scorers back then and he might not have half that with the Kings. On the ice, L.A. had an awfully quiet off-season. With very little free cap space, they were unable to make any big-name signings. They brought back former Los Angeles Kings’ forward, Mike Cammalleri on a one-year, $1 million deal. Cammalleri is coming off two mediocre seasons with the New Jersey Devils and finished last season with only 10 goals, and 31 points in 61 games. While every team is getting quicker and younger, the Kings are getting older and slower. Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, and Jeff Carter will carry this team to whatever success they may have. Meanwhile, one of the NHL’s most overrated goaltenders is healthy and ready to go. This market loves Jonathan Quick because the media keeps insisting he’s great but we’re here to tell you he’s not.

Quick will play in his 10th NHL season this year. How great is he? He had one great year back in 2011-12 when the Kings won the Cup and he posted a .928 save percentage. Other than that, he’s been at .918 or under every other year, which is in Steve Mason territory over Mason’s last five years. It’s also worth noting that Quick was playing behind a very good L.A. defense for years so his numbers are even more skewed. This is a below average netminder playing on a team that can’t score goals. Quick is slower too, as he’s battled several injuries over the past three years.

The Flyers played last night in San Jose and won 5-3. They had a 2-0 lead, a 3-2 lead, a 4-3 lead and finally ended it with an empty-netter late in the third period. Philadelphia never trailed the entire game and had all four lines making an impact. The Flyers look to be a well-balanced squad this year with scoring throughout the lineup. Teams can no longer focus on Giroux’s line. The #2 pick in the June draft, Nolan Patrick did not look a bit out of a place. The Flyers had 29 scoring chances to the Sharks’ 20. A win on opening night in San Jose is a great confidence booster. The Flyers have to be feeling great heading into Los Angeles with a 1-0 record as opposed to being 0-1. The Flyers have a very good game under their belt, they’re energized and they’re the superior team here taking back a tag while the Kings are not difficult to beat anymore.

Arizona +150 over ANAHEIM

Bringing back a core that might have advanced to the Cup Final had No. 1 goaltender John Gibson stayed healthy, the Ducks have their sights set on taking the next step. They cleared a big hurdle with their series-clinching win against the Edmonton Oilers in the second round but Anaheim will be far from healthy coming into the opener. Defensemen Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen will each miss the first few weeks after suffering shoulder injuries during the playoffs. Center Ryan Kesler is also out, which leaves the Ducks with Ryan Getzlaf, Antoine Vermette, Chris Wagner and Logan Shaw as the four centers for now. That’s a problem. While we like the Ducks depth everywhere else, Anaheim has started slow the past couple of years and usually kick it into gear once January rolls around. This line also stuck out to us. If the Blues, a quality squad for years, were getting +170 in Pittsburgh last night and Philadelphia is getting +145 in L.A. tonight, how can these perennial basement dwellers be priced less than St. Louis and in the same range as Philly? That tells us the oddsmakers give the Coyotes a big shot tonight.

Arizona is high on our radar as an undervalued squad. Defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is great and Alex Goligoski joins him back there. Adding Niklas Hjalmarsson and Jason Demers and Arizona’s blue line is looking pretty damn good. Gone are longtime head coach Dave Tippett and captain Shane Doan. After eight seasons behind the bench, Tippett was replaced by former Pittsburgh Penguins assistant Rick Tocchet, who will lean heavily on his new top center, Derek Stepan, and starting goaltender, Antti Raanta, each of whom were acquired in a trade with the New York Rangers. The ‘Yotes also have one of the most compelling prospect groups in the league with Dylan Strome, Brendan Perlini, Christian Dvorak and Clayton Keller, who starred at Boston University last season and could be a favorite to win the Calder Trophy as top rookie. All that potential could flourish under Tocchet, who was hailed as a players' coach in Pittsburgh and was generally considered among the league's top assistants after capturing back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Penguins. The Coyotes top three lines look like the following: Max Domi-Derek Stepan-Brendan Perlini, Clayton Keller-Christian Dvorak-Tobias Rieder and Dylan Strome-Brad Richardson-Anthony Duclair. Antti Raanta is more than ready to take on the added responsibility of being the #1 goaltender and if he’s as good as projected, the Coyotes are not going to be an easy out this year. We’ll put that to the test right off the bat.

Future Wager: N.Y. Rangers+250 to miss playoffs

This wager is available at BET365 in the “To Reach Playoffs” section at the bottom of the hockey betting page but if you don’t have an account there, you can also bet the Rangers to go under 95½ points because if they do miss the playoffs, they will likely be way under that number. We could play under 95½ too but that’s an even money wager while missing the playoffs will bring us back a healthy return of +250.

Thus, in order for the Rangers to miss the playoffs, there has to be improvements in the East from two or three teams that missed the playoffs last year and that will take the Rangers place in the postseason this year. Last year’s playoff teams in the East were Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus and New York Rangers. We can almost be certain that Washington, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Montreal will make the playoffs again this year. Columbus has too much talent to take a step backwards so that’s five playoff teams right there. That leaves three up for grabs and it would be absolutely unreasonable to expect the Lightning to miss the playoffs again. Tampa Bay might have the best talent in the East and they are not going to repeat last year.

Assuming Tampa makes it along with our other five almost sure things, that leaves two playoff spots up for grabs between Carolina, Florida, Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia, the Rangers, the Islanders, Buffalo and New Jersey. Carolina is ready to make its move. The addition of goaltender Scott Darling stabilizes the ‘Canes on the backend behind a deep, young and very talented defense core. Carolina figures to make the playoffs too. Carolina might even be a top-3 team in the East and had they not lost more OT games than any NHL team over the past two years, they would’ve made the playoffs both years. Carolina is 100% a playoff calibre team.

To recap, we can reasonably expect Toronto, Montreal, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Tampa Bay and Carolina to make the playoffs. That would leave one open spot for the Rangers and they would have to beat out Boston, Ottawa, Florida, Philadelphia, Buffalo or the Islanders, assuming that Detroit and New Jersey have no shot. Some say Philly is a year away from exploding. Surely, the Flyers could be ahead of schedule this year. Some say Florida has too much talent to miss the playoffs. Some say Ottawa can play as good as they did last year. Some say Buffalo had the best offseason of any team in the East. One cannot count out the Bruins either. The Islanders have been 94 points or better for the last three seasons and the coaching change to Doug Weight last year showed the potential for this group. Anyone of those “bubble” teams can beat out the Rangers and some might beat them out by a wide margin.

The New York Rangers are a capped out team that is in serious need at center. Factor in a suddenly less reliant Henrik Lundqvist (we call him pure garbage) without a suitable backup safety net and we’re putting the Rangers outside the playoff picture. Kevin Shattenkirk helps the power-play but he doesn’t help that wasteland of a defense. We didn’t like the Derek Stepan trade either, at least for the short term. Stepan is an outstanding defensive-minded center who is great on the penalty kill. In 81 games last season he scored 17 goals and added 38 assists for 55 points. The Rangers are on the decline and we’re suggesting it all comes to a head this year by them missing the playoffs and/or finishing below the posted point total of 95½.

[swaminator]

a lil soccer wager help if anyone knows.
The OC play today is an Brazil -1/2 .
there are 2 options I see, ML Brasil -130 or Brasil -1/2 -130
what is the smarter play? thx Swami

[swaminator]

sorry thats the IC 7* play , Indian Cowboy, Brasil -1/2

[swaminator]

I guess I'm not understanding why the Brasil ML and the -1/2 are BOTH -130.


a lil soccer wager help if anyone knows.
The OC play today is an Brazil -1/2 .
there are 2 options I see, ML Brasil -130 or Brasil -1/2 -130
what is the smarter play? thx Swami

[New York Knight]

OVER is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall & OVER is 7-0 in Bucs last 7 Thursday games.


Tonight's total: 54.5