Longhorn Picks

[txlonghorn90]

Howdy Ya'll.

I'm new to this forum so starting a bit late. None the less I'll try and post my best ideas and see what happens when stacked up against the very esteemed pickers on this board.

Took me a while to track down CPAW again and glad I found this site.

I college football this week two plays jump out:

Texas Tech - 17 over Kansas

As a Big XII alum I can say that Kansas is just awful. Texas Tech and the air raid offense on the other side are really good. I'll take an angry Tech team after what should have been a W against OK. St. against a porous Kansas secondary.

Miami - 3 over FSU

This is all about emotion. 18 year old kids need to be excited to Amy at their best. Richt will have his team fired up after years of getting pounded by FSU. The Noles O line has more holes than Midland Odessa has oil wells so expecting a rough day for FSU

Would love to hear any contrary opinions.

[Mr. IWS]

Glad to have you here.

Nothing for me in that Kansas game but Im probably going to be on Miami as well.

::handshake::

[DaKid]

Solid bud

[txlonghorn90]

Thanks. Let's see what happens.

[txlonghorn90]

Adding Texas A&M +15.5 1H only

Historically A&M has run with Alabama for the first 2 quarters. At home in Kyle Field with the 12th man active I'm thinking Sumlin and his boys have a lot to prove. As much as I hate the Aggies, I think they stay close in the 1st H.

[txlonghorn90]

To recap 3 Plays for tomorrow:

- Texas Tech -17 over Kansas (this line has moved down to -15 and I actually got my ticket at -14 by buying 1/2 point). None the less, was -17 when I made the post so stand behind it.
- Miami -3 (play of the day)
- Texas A&M +15.5 1H only against the Crimson Tide

[Mr. IWS]

I like the A&M play bro. Ill be on them for the game myself.

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Hell of a day! What a finish in Miami!!!!

[txlonghorn90]

No doubt. That FSU-Miami game was much closer than I anticipated. Very surprised that Miami could not move the ball in the 1st half. Good week so far. We'll see if I can keep it up or not.

[txlonghorn90]

Starting to look at Week 7 games. One game jumps out at me immediately. A very strong play on:

North Texas +3 over UTSA

This line makes no sense to me whatsoever. Two small schools probably with little betting action gives us great line value here. UNT is a very good football team. Their two losses were to Iowa and SMU both of which are non-conference and very strong opponents. UTSA on the other hand just started conference play and immediately tanked last week losing to Southern Miss. UNT beat Southern Miss 43-28 two weeks ago. The UTSA "signature win" was over a very weak Baylor squad at the beginning of the year so I discount the value of that W. Their other opponents were all cupcakes (Tx State and Southern) which they won easily.

This is a flat out line mismatch as UNT should win easily. I'm backing up the truck on this one while the line is still healthy in UNT's favor.

More later.

[txlonghorn90]

I like to make my plays early to get the best lines. Once the touts release saturday AM and the degenerates wake up and get to the window you never know what is going to happen. My plays for Week 7 are:

North Texas +3 over UTSA ( I realize line is down to +2 or +2.5 today but was at +3 yesterday when I posted and my ticket is at +3)
Auburn -7 over LSU (everyone thinks LSU is back just because they beat a mediocre Florida team)
Michigan State - 4 over Minnesota (PJ FLeck will not be able to row the boat against the Sparty defense)

Good luck to all

[txlonghorn90]

I started posting in Week 6. Updated results below (assume $1,000 per play):

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)

On to Week 8

[txlonghorn90]

Plays for this week include

Western KY - 7
Marshall - 1
Michigan St - 6.5

First two games go tonight. Watching one more line so may post a 4th game this week later on. Good luck.

[indiana]

LH/90........BOL tonight and this weekend.........indy

[Mr. IWS]

Michigan St - 6.5




Been looking at this one myself now that LJ Scott is playing.

[txlonghorn90]

Indy - great to have you here. Followed you a lot on the other site. This place is so much better.....

[txlonghorn90]

Adding two more games for tomorrow. Total card for the week is:

Western Ky -7 (Loss)
Marshall - 1 (Win)
Michigan State -6.5
Kentucky +12
West Virginia -9

Top play is on West Virginia. Baylor is terrible on defense and has lost to their quality opponents by double digits. West Virginia has gotten their act together and are a very good offensive team. Will be really hard for Baylor to play from behind so I expect at least a two touchdown difference in the final score.

[DaKid]

Good luck today longhorn. You are very solid capper

[Mr. IWS]

With you on WVU as well for the same reasons bro. Also riding with Kentucky. Staying away from Sparty though.

GL

[txlonghorn90]

THanks guys. Let's see what happens. Figuring out which set of 18 years olds are going to show up hung over vs. which will show up ready to play is never easy :-)

[txlonghorn90]

Well folks. That was a tough day yesterday. I don't like losing money. I have no idea how West Virginia gets smoked 23-0 in the 4th quarter to miss the cover. How you can be up 38-13 with 14:00 minutes left in the game and not protect the number is absurd. Really poor defense that nearly cost those kids their season. That coupled with a complete no show by the state of Kentucky had us come in with a poor 2-3 showing overall this week.

The record so far is as follows:

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)
Week 8 - 2 wins 3 losses (-$1,300)

TOTALS to DATE: 8 wins 4 losses (+$2,600)

I'll try and do better in week 10.

[Mr. IWS]

Well folks. That was a tough day yesterday. I don't like losing money. I have no idea how West Virginia gets smoked 23-0 in the 4th quarter to miss the cover. How you can be up 38-13 with 14:00 minutes left in the game and not protect the number is absurd. Really poor defense that nearly cost those kids their season. That coupled with a complete no show by the state of Kentucky had us come in with a poor 2-3 showing overall this week.

The record so far is as follows:

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)
Week 8 - 2 wins 3 losses (-$1,300)

TOTALS to DATE: 8 wins 4 losses (+$2,600)

I'll try and do better in week 10.


Went down with you on WVU and Kentucky. That WVU collapse was brutal

[txlonghorn90]

I like some of the games on the card this week so hoping for a strong showing. I am playing the following picks for Week 9:

- SMU -9 (line is -9.5 so I bought the hook)
- Marshall - 16.5
- Texas -9 (think they will play really hard after last week's debacle. Are 5-0-1 ATS in last 6 games)
- Ohio State - 6 (buy the hook on this one for sure)
- TCU - 6.5 (Play of the Day. This game will be done at halftime)

Good luck to all

[txlonghorn90]

Well folks, a really bad week in Week 9. No idea that TCU, Ohio State, and SMU would play so poorly. I'm really sorry to anyone who lost money tailing me last week. Updated record is:

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)
Week 8 - 2 wins 3 losses (-$1,300)
Week 9 - 1 win 4 losses (-$3,600) including the juice on the hook buys

TOTALS to DATE: 8 wins 8 losses (-$1,000)

I will do better this week....

[txlonghorn90]

Picks for Week 10 are as follows:

Florida +3 (love this game with new coach and new QB - Missouri is bad folks)
Iowa +18 (looking for a Buckeye letdown after last week)
Maryland -3 (Rutgers is a bad team)
Mississippi +3.5
Arkansas -24 ( all losses came against ranked teams. Now they step down in competition)
Va Tech +1

Good luck to all!

[DaKid]

Lets do this!

[Mr. IWS]

Best of luck today man, hoping we both bounce back today.

[txlonghorn90]

Last 3 weeks of college football have been awful for me. Hope you guys were fading and not following. Going to stick to the 2-3 strongest games this week for my card which I will post tomorrow. As bad as it is, record update is below.

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)
Week 8 - 2 wins 3 losses (-$1,300)
Week 9 - 1 win 4 losses (-$3,600) including the juice on the hook buys
Week 10 - 2 wins 4 losses (-$2,400)

TOTALS to DATE: 10 wins 12 losses (-$3,400)

[Mr. IWS]

Ive been on the worst run of my life the last 3 weeks myself. Im definitly limiting my games this week.

GL my friend.

[txlonghorn90]

Thank you sir! The books have been making out like bandits lately. I know it is not the right forum but anybody that saw that Arizona game last night and the missed extra point at the end, has to know that something is up. Better to limit your action and ride it out until things tilt back our direction!

Good luck to you.

[txlonghorn90]

Picks for Week 11 are as follows:

USC - 14 (My top play of the week. USC is fighting to stay relevant in the PAC 12 and make it to the championship game. Next week have UCLA who has already rolled over so they will be focused on winning at altitude this week.)
Wisconsin -12 (Wisconsin is playing for the BCS. With a weak schedule they cannot afford a single loss so have something to prove. Iowa played out of their minds last week and expect a letdown here allowing an easy Wisky cover)
Ark. St. - 10.5 (Playing for bowl eligibility and off a bye week so should be focused against a weaker South Alabama team)

Good luck to all!

[Mr. IWS]

Thank you sir! The books have been making out like bandits lately. I know it is not the right forum but anybody that saw that Arizona game last night and the missed extra point at the end, has to know that something is up. Better to limit your action and ride it out until things tilt back our direction!

Good luck to you.

::handshake::

[txlonghorn90]

Well a little better result but still not thrilled. Just glad to be in the black after a 3 week beat down. Looking for some great results this weekend so will post picks soon.

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)
Week 8 - 2 wins 3 losses (-$1,300)
Week 9 - 1 win 4 losses (-$3,600) including the juice on the hook buys
Week 10 - 2 wins 4 losses (-$2,400)
Week 11 - 2 wins 1 loss (+$900)

TOTALS to DATE: 12 wins 13 losses (-$2,500)

[indiana]

TEX/90..........BOL with your action this weekend..........indy

[txlonghorn90]

Sorry guys. I was out of the country last week so did not have any week 12 action.

Three games I really like in Week 13 as follows:

North Texas +11.5 at FAU - the Mean Green are a good team and will not get blown out the way they did in the first game. This is a legitimate revenge situation as FAU embarrassed UNT the first time around)

UCF -7 over Memphis - Scott Frost has UCF in great shape and they have something to prove in going undefeated on the year. Memphis will play better this time around but no doubt that UCF is the better team here.

Fresno State +9 over Boise State - This is the craziest line of the weekend. Fresno State just beat Boise State last week by >10 points. No way going to the blue turf causes a 20 point swing in the result.

Good luck to all

[Mr. IWS]

::handshake::