Thursday 11-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:00 AM

Vikings vs. Lions Preview and Predictions

The Minnesota Vikings answered last month's low-scoring loss to the Detroit Lions with six straight victories to catapult themselves to the top of the NFC North. The Vikings look to take a stranglehold on the division Thanksgiving Day when they visit the Lions, who have won three consecutive contests overall and are 3-0 against division foes this season.

Case Keenum completed a season-low 53.3 percent of his passes in a 14-7 setback to Detroit on Nov. 1, but has averaged 68.0 percent during the team's winning streak - including 71.1 (27 of 38 for 280 yards) in Sunday's 24-7 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. "He's got a horseshoe right now," coach Mike Zimmer said of the 29-year-old Keenum. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been living a charmed life since signing a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL, and the 29-year-old has paid dividends with multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and seven of 10 this season. Stafford, however, was held in check against Minnesota as he threw for just 209 yards without a touchdown pass.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings -3. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (8-2): Adam Thielen has an NFC-best 916 receiving yards while his 16 catches of at least 20 yards has the 27-year-old tied with Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown for the league lead. Thielen has 19 catches for 387 yards in the last three games and found the end zone for the third straight week with a 65-yard touchdown reception against the Rams. Not to be outdone, Latavius Murray scored twice last week while matching his season best with 6.3 yards per carry. The 27-year-old has four touchdowns in his last four games and faces a Detroit defense that allowed 222 yards rushing on Sunday and 423 yards on the ground over the last two weeks.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4): Detroit's maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits, but Ameer Abdullah has been a positive factor of late with three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in the last three games. The 24-year-old had found the end zone just once in his previous seven games, notably a 3-yard touchdown rush against the Vikings with eight minutes to play in the fourth quarter. Marvin Jones Jr., who had just two catches in that contest, reeled in his team-leading sixth touchdown reception of the season and fourth in his last five outings during Sunday's 27-24 victory over Chicago.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Detroit is bidding for its third sweep of the season series in four years.

2. The Vikings' defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game (77.7), fourth in points permitted (17.2) and fifth in yards per game (290.5).

3. Lions DT Anthony Zettel recorded two of his team-leading six sacks in the first encounter against the Vikings.

PREDICTION: Lions 24, Vikings 21

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:01 AM

Trends - Minnesota at Detroit

ATS TRENDS

Minnesota

Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Vikings are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 12.
Vikings are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Vikings are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Vikings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Vikings are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Vikings are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games overall.
Vikings are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
Vikings are 15-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Vikings are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games on fieldturf.
Vikings are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.
Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC North.

Detroit

Lions are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 12.
Lions are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

Minnesota

Under is 8-1 in Vikings last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-1 in Vikings last 8 games in Week 12.
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 18-5 in Vikings last 23 vs. NFC North.
Under is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 20-7 in Vikings last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 games following a straight up win.
Under is 17-7-1 in Vikings last 25 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 Thursday games.
Under is 7-3-1 in Vikings last 11 games in November.
Under is 25-12 in Vikings last 37 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

Detroit

Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 vs. NFC.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 9-3 in Lions last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 23-11 in Lions last 34 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 29-14 in Lions last 43 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:01 AM

Chargers vs. Cowboys Preview and Predictions

The Dallas Cowboys are used to playing on Thanksgiving Day, but Thursday's contest definitely is an oddity for the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys are playing their 50th Thanksgiving contest, but the Chargers will be participating in their first game on the holiday since 1969.

San Diego's Philip Rivers, who is in his 14th NFL season, knew when the schedule was released that Thursday's contest was a first for him. "I think besides a playoff game, I don't think it gets any bigger," Rivers said at a press conference. "Playing on Thanksgiving, I don't know if that's something any of our guys that have been on teams have done. Certainly, I know it's something we haven't done here." Both teams need victories to bolster their playoff hopes, particularly a Cowboys squad that badly misses suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas is four games behind league-leading Philadelphia in the NFC East and was outscored 64-16 while losing to Atlanta and the Eagles in their last two contests.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -1. O/U: 48

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-6): Los Angeles has recovered from an 0-4 start and views the contest as crucial as its deficit in the AFC West is just two games thanks to Kansas City dropping four of its last five games. "We're not way out of the division and not way out of the hunt," Rivers said. "That's exciting and encouraging. It shouldn't be hard to keep us focused on the task at hand. ... Just be fired up that we still have everything in front of us." Receiver Keenan Allen (56 receptions, 755 yards) has recovered well from last season's ACL injury, while star pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks) and Melvin Ingram (8.5) pace a defense that is ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.6 points per game).

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5): Quarterback Dak Prescott has passed for 2,139 yards and 16 touchdowns with seven interceptions, but Dallas has allowed 12 sacks over the last two games while missing left tackle Tryon Smith (groin/back) and now must figure out how to stop Bosa and Ingram. "Each one has a repertoire of moves, they have a really good feel and instinct for the game on top of their athletic ability, and they play hard," Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told reporters regarding the duo. "So individually, they're awfully good, and when you put them together, it makes it that much more difficult to protect." The defense, which is receiving a career year from defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (11.5 sacks), will be missing outside linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring).

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Chargers won the last two meetings, but the Cowboys hold a 6-4 advantage in the all-time series.

2. Dallas TE Jason Witten (43 receptions) had made just one catch in two of his last three games.

3. Los Angeles forced six turnovers (five interceptions, one fumble) in last Sunday's 54-24 rout of Buffalo.

PREDICTION: Chargers 26, Cowboys 24

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:03 AM

Trends - L.A. Chargers at Dallas

ATS TRENDS

L.A. Chargers

Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Dallas

Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

OU TRENDS

L.A. Chargers

Under is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2-1 in Chargers last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 road games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Chargers last 9 Thursday games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 20-8-1 in Chargers last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Dallas

Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games in Week 12.
Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 15-7 in Cowboys last 22 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 32-15-1 in Cowboys last 48 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:03 AM

Giants vs. Redskins Preview and Predictions

The Washington Redskins have only four days to pick themselves up after a late collapse and a crushing defeat that dealt a jarring blow to their postseason hopes. Losers of two in a row and four of their last five, Washington faces what basically amounts to a must-win scenario when it hosts the New York Giants on Thanksgiving night.

The Redskins blew a 15-point lead in the final six minutes of an eventual 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans and dropped to 11th place in the NFC -- two games out of the final playoff slot. "It stings everybody involved with the Washington Redskins, that's for sure," coach Jay Gruden said. "We just have to bounce back. We have a short week. It doesn't get any easier. The Giants are coming to town on Thanksgiving. We have no choice but to keep grinding and keep battling." New York has been relegated to spoiler since opening the season with five consecutive losses, but it halted a three-game skid with a 12-9 overtime victory over AFC West-leading Kansas City on Sunday. "We're not complacent. At the end of the day, it's just one win," Giants running back Orleans Darkwa said. "We want to make sure we can stack these wins together and make the best situation possible for this team."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Redskins -7.5. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-8): New York put forth a strong defensive effort, limiting Kansas City to three field goals after surrendering a staggering 106 points during its three-game slide. The Giants won despite Eli Manning completing 54.3 percent of his passes and throwing for only 205 yards while failing to toss a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener. Darkwa rushed for at least 70 yards for the third consecutive week and added a touchdown on 20 carries, but none of the team's receivers had more than three catches on Sunday. Safety Landon Collins led to strong defensive effort by intercepting a pass and recording a career-best 14 tackles.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6): Washington wasted a superb effort by Kirk Cousins, who threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions against the Saints. Cousins will be without some of his best weapons as Chris Thompson, who leads the team in touchdowns, rushing and receptions, was lost for the season after suffering a broken fibula on Sunday. Wideout Terrelle Pryor was placed on injured reserve, tight end Jordan Reed remains a question mark and the offensive line could be without three starters and the top two centers. Rookie Samaje Perine ran for a season-high 117 yards, but the defense has allowed at least 33 points in the past four losses.

EXTRA POINTS

1. None of the teams left on Washington's schedule currently own a winning record.

2. Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul has 9.5 sacks in the past 10 games against Washington.

3. Cousins is third in the NFL with 2,796 passing yards.

PREDICTION: Redskins 27, Giants 16

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:04 AM

Trends - N.Y. Giants at Washington

ATS TRENDS

N.Y. Giants

Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Giants are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 12.
Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Giants are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Washington

Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
Redskins are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Redskins are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Redskins are 10-28-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC East.
Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

OU TRENDS

N.Y. Giants

Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 7-2 in Giants last 9 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-2 in Giants last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Washington

Over is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 14-2 in Redskins last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 14-2 in Redskins last 16 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 games in November.
Over is 9-2 in Redskins last 11 vs. NFC East.
Over is 17-4 in Redskins last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 23-6 in Redskins last 29 games on grass.
Over is 24-7 in Redskins last 31 games overall.
Over is 10-3 in Redskins last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 22-7 in Redskins last 29 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-4 in Redskins last 15 home games.
Over is 19-7 in Redskins last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 21-8 in Redskins last 29 games following a ATS win.
Over is 15-6-1 in Redskins last 22 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 12-5 in Redskins last 17 games in Week 12.

HEAD TO HEAD

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
Underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:06 AM

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

The FALL HIGHWEIGHT Handicap was inaugurated at Belmont Park in 1914. Now restricted to 3-year-olds and up, this race was open to all ages prior to 1959. The inaugural running was won by the 2-year-old-filly Comely. The Racing Secretary must assign at least 140 pounds to the top-weighted horse in this event.
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Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Stakes - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 114

RIVER CITY H. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE-YEARS-OLD AND UPWARD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 SOME IN TIEME (BRZ) 15/1

# 5 SHINING COPPER 3/1

# 6 REVVED UP 9/2

SOME IN TIEME (BRZ) is tough to overlook as the bet in here especially at a such a nice price. He has a strong distance/surface win record - 3 for 9. SHINING COPPER - Formidable average speed figures in turf route races make this horse a solid choice. Could provide positive profits based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 106. REVVED UP - Must be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last contest. As of late McGaughey has provided bettors with a very strong winning percentage with horses racing in turf route races.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 5

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (5-6) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)

Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 40 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:51P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BAD GRAMMAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUPER DAWN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CORY'S CUTIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1
BAD GRAMMAR
6/1

9/2
6
SUPER DAWN
5/2

9/2
5
CORY'S CUTIE
3/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
BAD GRAMMAR
1

6/1
Front-runner
55

36

64.6

35.4

30.4
9
DAZZLEM QUICK
9

15/1
Front-runner
0

0

52.4

13.5

0.0
3
SILKEN LADY
3

5/1
Front-runner
0

0

44.8

23.4

14.4
6
SUPER DAWN
6

5/2
Front-runner
43

47

29.3

44.7

39.2
7
FANCY CHANCE
7

12/1
Alternator/Stalker
44

35

47.0

28.0

20.5
4
MOCHKLA MOCHKLA
4

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
49

34

65.4

36.0

20.5
5
CORY'S CUTIE
5

3/1
Alternator/Trailer
45

37

33.2

35.1

26.6
10
DESPITE THE WIZARD
10

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

19.2

28.0

18.5
8
ZENARINA
8

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

45.8

21.6

8.1
2
GLORYTUNE
2

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

30.8

3.8

0.0

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

Del Mar - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / 50 Cent Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick 5

Optional Claiming $40,000 • 1 3/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $53,000 • Post: 11:00
(RAIL AT 6 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $32,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED) (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SCANDAL is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * YOU'RE A GOAT (GB): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SCANDAL: Horse has run a Good Race wi thin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NOVEMBER TALE (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2
YOU'RE A GOAT (GB)
5/2

9/2
1
SCANDAL
6/1

5/1
3
NOVEMBER TALE (IRE)
6/1

8/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
9
CAUSEFORCOMMOTION
9

10/1
Stalker
97

92

80.4

91.6

84.1
6
BOMBILATE
6

3/1
Stalker
101

88

66.4

89.3

78.8
5
ANTONINA (PER)
5

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
98

98

53.1

74.9

63.9
1
SCANDAL
1

6/1
Trailer
97

96

80.4

94.8

88.8
2
YOU'RE A GOAT (GB)
2

5/2
Trailer
101

91

66.2

91.3

85.8
4
SHAZARA
4

8/1
Trailer
96

89

62.0

86.8

76.8
3
NOVEMBER TALE (IRE)
3

6/1
Alternator/Trailer
99

91

64.6

90.6

78.6
7
WISHFUL WINKING
7

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

87

68.1

81.7

66.2
8
HACKTIVISM
8

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
100

96

67.2

88.4

78.9

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2016-2017 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 GO GO GOOSE 12/1

# 6 FORGOTTEN 8/1

# 4 VOW ME OVER 8/1

GO GO GOOSE is my selection especially at a such a nice price. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. Is a solid choice - given the 86 speed fig from her most recent race. Has run soundly when moving a turf route race. FORGOTTEN - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field. VOW ME OVER - Has performed solidly lately in route races, posting a nifty 82 avg Equibase Speed Fig. Overall the speed figures of this pony look decent in this race.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:11 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: 1

#6 DAWN TRAVELLER (IRE) (ML=1/1)
#7 EVENING JAZZ (ML=7/2)

DAWN TRAVELLER (IRE) - The rider and trainer combination here have a high winning percent when they partner up. Earned a nice turf figure on Nov 2nd at Del Mar. A repeat in today's race, and this one has a great shot to win. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this thoroughbred has the highest speed rating for the dist/surf. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the power to make her presence felt. Recent speed ratings show solid pattern of improvement. I like the hard fact that this filly's last speed rating, 84, is tops in this field. EVENING JAZZ - I am keen on that last contest on October 26th at Golden Gate Fields where she ended up second. This one has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 ROYAL LOOKIN (ML=9/2),

ROYAL LOOKIN - This entrant has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. I'm always leery of any animal that earns her biggest speed rating on an 'off' track.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 EVENING JAZZ to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #8 - Post: 2:55pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: 4

#7 MAYNOOTH (ML=6/1)
#2 COSMIC HALO (ML=4/1)

MAYNOOTH - Forgive the outside the top 3 finish on the off track last time out. On a fast track, has a shot in this event. Lynch moves this colt to the main track today. Look for a significant improvement from the most recent turf race. COSMIC HALO - I always like to see a thoroughbred getting Lasix for the 1st time. Sacco adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BASS ROCK (ML=3/1), #4 TWO SWORDS (ML=7/2), #6 MY CHINUMADO (ML=4/1),

BASS ROCK - Doesn't appear to have enough good qualities to justify the price. TWO SWORDS - Would have to get much more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 7/2 to play this horse. MY CHINUMADO - Didn't land in the money on October 27th at Laurel. Followed it up with another lackluster performance.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 MAYNOOTH is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:42 AM

Missouri vs. Long Beach State Preview and Predictions

Missouri must move forward without prize recruit Michael Porter Jr. as it begins play in the Advocare Invitational on Thursday against Long Beach State in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. The team announced Tuesday that the 6-10 Porter, who was expected to be one of the best freshmen in the country but played just two minutes before going down in the season opener, will miss three to four months after back surgery.

"Our focus has been on Michael's well-being, just like every other player in our locker room," Missouri coach Cuonzo Martin said in a statement. "We will continue to work every day to build Mizzou Basketball into a program to be proud of. We're preparing now for a trip that is a tremendous opportunity. I'm excited to get after it in Orlando." The Tigers still have plenty of talent that has helped them win three of four games to start the season, but they struggled to put away Division II Emporia State 67-62 on Monday. Junior forward Kevin Puryear (13.3) and senior guard Kassius Robertson (13.0) are the only players scoring in double figures for Missouri, which must be alert against Long Beach State. The 49ers, who started with two wins before dropping decisions against Oregon State and West Virginia, have also been missing one of their top players in junior forward Temidayo Yussuf (knee).

TV: 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

ABOUT MISSOURI (3-1): Puryear is averaging 6.3 boards and has connected on 18-of-29 shots from the field while Porter's brother, Jontay, leads the team in rebounding (7.0) and adds 8.3 points per contest. Robertson is also contributing 2.8 assists and senior forward Jordan Barnett, along with 6-10 freshman Jeremiah Tilmon, chip in with nine points per game apiece. The Tigers will need more from junior guard Terrence Phillips, who is averaging 5.0 points after recording 10.4 per game last season - including 21 in Lake Buena Vista against Xavier in the Tire Pros Invitational.

ABOUT LONG BEACH STATE (2-2): Yussuf, who averaged 9.4 points and was named All-Big West second team last season, is questionable after missing each of the first four contests. Junior guard Bryan Alberts, a transfer from Gonzaga, has topped his career high in scoring the last three games and averages 16.5 points while draining 16-of-35 from 3-point range in the early going. Senior forward Gabe Levin joined Yussuf on the preseason All-Big West team and is averaging 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds after notching a double-double in the 91-62 loss to West Virginia (23, 11).

TIP-INS

1. Missouri sophomore F Reed Nikko has stepped up the last three games, averaging eight points and seven boards in 15 minutes.

2. Long Beach State F Barry Ogalue is averaging 13.5 points, but was held to two last time out against West Virginia.

3. Missouri has won both previous meetings, including a 69-59 triumph in 2014.

PREDICTION: Long Beach State 71, Missouri 70

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:42 AM

Villanova vs. Tennessee Preview and Predictions

Villanova is undefeated and Jalen Brunson is playing like the Preseason Big East Player of the Year, but the Wildcats are far from satisfied. After sneaking past Western Kentucky in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas, No. 3 Villanova meets Tennessee in Thursday's semifinals.

The Wildcats are 4-0 and have given up 60 or fewer points three times, while Brunson came into the event averaging 17.7 points and essentially fell on that number with 18 in the opening round. The junior guard was 7-for-9 from the field and is 23-for-29 over the last three games for the Big East favorites. "We still have to get a lot better," Brunson told reporters following the victory. "We're still a work in progress." The Volunteers may pose a challenge after upsetting Purdue in overtime on Wednesday thanks to Grant Williams' dominant second-half effort.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT VILLANOVA (4-0): The Wildcats had their lowest-scoring effort of the season Wednesday due partially to a poor performance from their front-court players. Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall shot a combined 2-for-14 for six points, although Villanova's veteran guards bailed them out. In addition to Brunson's crisp performance, Donte DiVincenzo scored 14 points off the bench while Mikal Bridges contributed 17 along with eight rebounds, five steals, three blocks and three assists.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (3-0): Williams was scoreless at halftime against Purdue before erupting for 22 points after intermission - including the go-ahead bucket with 14.5 seconds left in overtime. "I thought we really showed the toughness we've been looking for from them," Tennessee coach Rick Barnes told reporters after the game. "I thought our guys just kept finding ways to fight back." Lamonte Turner chipped in 17 points in a reserve role, giving him 33 in the last two games since a scoreless season opener against Presbyterian.

TIP-INS

1. Bridges is averaging 21.3 points over his last three games and has recorded 12 steals in that span.

2. Paschall is 0-for-10 from 3-point range this season.

3. Admiral Schofield, who came into the event as Tennessee's leading scorer (18 points), was limited to 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting on Wednesday.

PREDICTION: Villanova 77, Tennessee 66

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:43 AM

St. John's vs. Oregon State Preview and Predictions

St. John's is beginning to put two disappointing seasons in the rear-view mirror and can start with five victories for the first time since 2009-10 when it takes on Oregon State in the first round of the Advocare Invitational on Thursday at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. The Red Storm have rolled to four double-digit victories, including a 79-56 triumph over Nebraska, and held teams to 34.7 percent shooting.

"Our team, how we play, and how skilled and talented we are, we feel like we can play with anybody," St. John's junior forward Marvin Clark II told the New York Post, "but it's just a matter of if we're gonna come out and bring it from the jump." The Red Storm will have to get another strong effort when they meet Oregon State, which should be much improved after a 5-27 season with several key players back. The Beavers sandwiched a 75-66 loss to Wyoming with victories against Southern Utah and Long Beach State to start the season while shooting 50 percent from the field and scoring 84.7 per contest. Sophomore forward Tres Tinkle, the son of coach Wayne Tinkle, and 6-10 junior forward Drew Eubanks have averaged 41 points and almost 15 rebounds through the first three games for Oregon State.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPNU

ABOUT ST. JOHN'S (4-0): Sophomore guard Shamorie Ponds (17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, four assists), sophomore guard Marcus LoVett (15 points, 2.5 steals) and senior guard Bashir Ahmed (13 points) lead a balanced offense. Third-year coach Chris Mullin said recently that junior forward Tariq Owens, who is averaging 4.8 points along with six rebounds and 3.3 blocks, is perhaps his most important player. "He's the anchor of our defense," Mullin told the New York Post. "His blocks, they're great blocks, because he's in the right place. ... I think, to me, he kind of makes everything go, and he's pretty freakish athletically. He can do everything."

ABOUT OREGON STATE (2-1): Tinkle is averaging 21.3 points on 23-of-39 shooting and eight rebounds while Eubanks chips in with 19.7 and 6.7, respectively, draining 18-of-26 from the field. Junior guard Stephen Thompson Jr. has scored 13.7 per game in the first three, but is shooting 36.8 percent from the field overall - making just 1-of-15 from 3-point range. "We've just got to get him to relax," coach Tinkle told the Corvallis Gazette-Times of Thompson, who averaged 16.3 points in 2016-17. "We know he's a great shooter. I think he's really putting a lot of pressure on himself. ... It's just another piece to our deal that obviously puts us at a different level."

TIP-INS

1. St. John's sophomore G Justin Simon, a transfer from Arizona, is averaging 10.3 points and a team-high 9.5 rebounds.

2. Oregon State sophomore G Jaquori McLaughlin is averaging just four points in the first three games after finishing at 10.5 last season.

3. The teams have split two meetings with the Red Storm winning the last 66-63 in the 2001 Great Alaska Shootout.

PREDICTION: St. John's 76, Oregon State 62

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:43 AM

Portland vs. North Carolina Preview and Predictions

Defending national champion North Carolina hopes to add another tournament title this weekend, as the ninth-ranked Tar Heels open the PK80 Invitational on Thursday against Portland. The tournament honoring Nike co-founder Phil Knight's 80th birthday features two eight-team brackets and is being played in Portland, Ore.

The Tar Heels' title defense is off to a roaring start with three double-digit wins, including a 96-72 road victory at Stanford on Monday. North Carolina could face some tough competition later in the tournament - including either Arkansas or Oklahoma on Friday and a potential matchup with Michigan State two days later. First up, though, are the Pilots, who have won two straight - both against NAIA opponents. Former NBA star Terry Porter is in his second season as the coach at Portland after going 11-22 last campaign.

TV: 2:30 p.m., ESPN

ABOUT PORTLAND (2-1): Porter reinforced the roster for his second season at the helm, adding junior-college transfer Josh McSwiggan (14.3 points, five rebounds) as well as his son, Franklin Porter (11 points), among others. Those two have emerged as the team's top two scorers, while 7-2 center Philipp Hartwich averages eight points and 12 rebounds while ranking second in the nation with 4.7 blocks per contest. Hartwich's ability to protect the rim is a big reason why the Pilots rank third nationally in field-goal defense, holding opponents to 31.9 percent shooting.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (3-0): The Tar Heels have no shortage of offensive threats, as five players are averaging double digits in points. Luke Maye (19.3 points, 9.3 rebounds) and point guard Joel Berry II (18.5 points, 4.5 assists) lead the way, but sharpshooter Kenny Williams (13.3 points) poured in a career-high 20 points against Stanford. The Tar Heels also appear to have a big-time post player in the making with 6-11 freshman Sterling Manley, who is averaging 10.7 points and 8.7 rebounds off the bench.

TIP-INS

1. North Carolina is 6-0 all-time in Oregon.

2. The Tar Heels have shot better than 50 percent in two of their three games.

3. Portland has lost nine straight to ranked teams and is 0-24 against top-10 opponents.

PREDICTION: North Carolina 89, Portland 73

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:43 AM

Virginia vs. Vanderbilt Preview and Predictions

No. 25 Virginia is off to a faster start this season entering the NIT Tip-Off semifinal Thursday against Vanderbilt in Brooklyn, N.Y., and not just based on the Cavaliers winning their first four games. Traditionally one of the nation's slowest teams offensively, Virginia is averaging 76 points per game, 10 points more than its average in 2016-17 - fueled by Kyle Guy's 18 points per game - and its typical tough defense once again is among the nation's best.

"The coaches just told me to be confident and stay ready, and that's what I tried to do," Guy told reporters after Virginia topped Monmouth 73-53 on Sunday. Vanderbilt has split its first four games of the season, falling 93-89 in overtime Sunday to No. 10 USC in a game where it led by 10 points midway through the second half. The Commodores' top three scorers combined to shoot 13-for-35 from 3-point range in losses to Belmont and USC. "There are definitely things we could learn, positives we could take from it," Vanderbilt guard/forward Matthew Fisher-Davis told the media afterward. "But losing isn't satisfying."

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPNU

ABOUT VIRGINIA (4-0): Guy is shooting 9-of-18 from 3-point range, making five in Friday's 76-67 victory at VCU, and is 15-of-17 from the free-throw line. De'Andre Hunter scored a career-high 23 points in Sunday's victory as the Cavaliers shot 52.2 percent from the field, moving to 4-0 for the second consecutive season. One season after leading the nation in scoring defense (56.4), the Cavaliers have limited their four opponents to 54.3 points per contest.

ABOUT VANDERBILT (2-2): Fisher-Davis finished with 31 points in Sunday's loss, hitting 6-of-13 attempts from 3-point range. Fisher-Davis leads the Commodores in scoring at 18 points per game, followed by Riley LaChance (14.8) and Jeff Roberson (13.3 points, 10 rebounds). Vanderbilt, which led the SEC in 3-point shooting last season, is hitting 34.4 percent of its shots from beyond the arc through four games.

TIP-INS

1. Fisher-Davis pulled down 11 rebounds Sunday, Vanderbilt's first player to score 30-plus points and record 10-plus rebounds in the same game since 2009.

2. Virginia has led the nation in scoring defense in three of the last four seasons.

3. Thursday's winner faces either Rhode Island or Seton Hall on Friday.

PREDICTION: Virginia 63, Vanderbilt 61

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:43 AM

Saint Mary's vs. Harvard Preview and Predictions

Saint Mary's is hoping its third appearance in the Wooden Legacy tournament proves to be the proverbial charm. The 21st-ranked Gaels tip off the eight-team extended-weekend tournament Thanksgiving afternoon with a matchup against preseason Ivy League favorite Harvard at Titan Gym in Fullerton, Calif.

After losing in the opening round and going 2-1 in the 2008 Wooden Legacy tourney, Saint Mary's returned four years later and won its opener before falling short in the semifinals and third-place game. Now, the 4-0 Gaels enter as the favorite to take home the title in the tournament, which also includes St. Joseph's and Washington State in the top half of the bracket and Georgia, host Cal State Fullerton, San Diego State and Sacramento State in the bottom half. The semifinals will be played Friday, with the championship and the other three place games set for Sunday after an off day. The holiday tournament is in its 11th season with UCLA and Michigan State having won the last two titles.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPNews

ABOUT SAINT MARY'S (4-0): A sixth seed in last season's NCAA Tournament, coach Randy Bennett's Gaels have won their first four contests by an average of 18 points, scoring at least 76 in each outing. Calvin Hermanson, a 6-foot-6 junior wing, leads the team in scoring at 19.0 points per game while 6-foot-11 center Jock Landale (17.5 points, team-best 8.0 rebounds) and guard Emmett Naar (12.8 points) are also averaging double figures. Naar also is averaging 9.5 assists - tied for fourth nationally - for the Gaels, who have 74 assists and only 27 turnovers on the season while their opponents have 47 of each.

ABOUT HARVARD (2-2): With coach Tommy Amaker in his 11th season and having already established himself as the winningest coach (195-104) in the program's history, the Crimson have stumbled of late after a 2-0 start, falling at Holy Cross and Manhattan by identical 73-69 scores. Sophomore guard Bryce Aiken is pacing the squad with 16.8 points and 3.5 assists while forwards Seth Towns (16.5) and Chris Lewis (10.5) also are averaging double digits. Towns (6.3 boards) and guard Justin Bassey (5.5) are the leading rebounders for the Crimson, which has struggled with taking care of the ball, averaging 17.3 turnovers and only 11.3 assists per outing.

TIP-INS

1. This will be the second meeting between the two programs with Saint Mary's winning 70-69 at home on New Year's Eve in 2012.

2. The Gaels have been on target this season, shooting a sizzling 52.1 percent from the floor, 43.8 percent from 3-point range and 79.7 percent at the free throw line.

3. Harvard has enjoyed recent success in neutral-site tournaments, winning both the 2013 Great Alaska Shootout and 2011 Battle 4 Atlantis titles and finishing second in the 2015 Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.

PREDICTION: Saint Mary's 76, Harvard 65

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:44 AM

Portland State vs. Duke Preview and Predictions

Top-ranked Duke looks like it's ready to turn things up to 100 at the PK80. The Blue Devils look to build on a 29-point rout of Furman in the opening round of the Phil Knight Invitational as they travel to Portland, Ore., for a date with Portland State.

After rolling to four consecutive home victories - each coming by at least 17 points - Duke leaves the comfortable confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium with its sights on winning the event held in honor of Nike founder Phil Knight's 80th birthday. Marvin Bagley III poured in 11 of his 24 points in a 2 1/2-minute stretch of the first half to lead the Blue Devils in their 92-63 triumph over Furman; he said afterward: "It was just a time in the game when I was hitting, my teammates kept finding me. They kept coming back to me, they believed in me enough to keep going and keep pushing, and I just executed on the plays we were running." Duke likely won't be tested by Portland State, despite the Vikings also coming in unbeaten. Bryce Canda and Michael Mayhew had 17 points each as Portland State edged Utah State 83-79 last time out.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT PORTLAND STATE (4-0): Canda has been the Vikings' best all-around player through the first four games of the season, leading the way in scoring (17.5 points per game), rebounding (8.0) and steals (3.3) while adding a team-high 11 3-pointers. But Canda is shooting an inconceivable 35.7 percent from the free-throw line after connecting on 79.2 of his attempts as a freshman. Foul shooting has been a team-wide problem to date, with Portland State shooting just 57.7 percent from the line - ranking the Vikings 336th out of 351 teams in Division I.

ABOUT DUKE (5-0): Bagley is looking every bit the part of a top prospect, having scored 24 points or more in three of his first five games in a Blue Devils jersey; he joins Jabari Parker and Johnny Dawkins as the only Duke freshmen with three 20-point efforts in their first five outings. Fellow first-year player Trevon Duval has been nearly as impressive, entering Thursday ranked third in the nation in assists (38) while boasting a 5.4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Yet, like Portland State, Duke could use some work on its free-throw shooting, entering the non-campus portion of the PK80 ranked 323rd at 61.7 percent.

TIP-INS

1. Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has 199 career victories with Duke as the top-ranked team in the nation.

2. The Blue Devils will face either Butler or Texas in the second round of this event.

3. Duke's 44.3 percent offensive rebound rate against FBS teams ranks second in the country.

PREDICTION: Duke 89, Portland State 63

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:44 AM

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma Preview and Predictions

A pair of unbeaten teams go head-to-head in a marquee matchup when Arkansas and Oklahoma square off Thursday in the first round of the PK80 tournament in Portland, Ore. The tournament honoring Nike co-founder Phil Knight's 80th birthday features two eight-team brackets.

The scoreboard should get a workout in this matchup, as the Sooners lead the nation with an average of 108 points per game while Arkansas is 18th at 93 points. Oklahoma has been dominant in its first two games, outscoring Omaha and Ball State by an average of 29 points while shooting 56.3 percent. The Razorbacks also have a pair of lopsided wins to their credit, and they're coming off an 83-75 home triumph over Fresno State on Friday that ran their record to 3-0. Oklahoma has won seven of the last 10 meetings, but Arkansas leads the all-time series 15-12 and is 4-0 in neutral-site games against the Sooners.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2

ABOUT ARKANSAS (3-0): The Razorbacks have a quartet of players who average double digits in points, with Jaylen Barford (20.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists) leading the way. Barford, Daryl Macon (16 points, 4.3 assists) and Anton Beard (13.3 points) give the team a trio of seniors who start in the backcourt, while 6-11 freshman Daniel Gafford (16.7 points, five rebounds) has made an impact coming off the bench. Coach Mike Anderson's teams also wreak havoc on defense, and this season has been no different thus far as the Razorbacks are forcing 17.7 turnovers per contest.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (2-0): The Sooners have one of the nation's best freshmen in home-grown point guard Trae Young, who leads the team with 18.5 points per game and tops the nation with an average of 11.5 assists. Fellow freshman Brady Manek (13.5 points) and senior forward Khadeem Lattin (14, 7.5 rebounds) give the team a pair of capable post players to complement Young. Junior guard Christian James (13.5 points) also is off to a great start after averaging 7.9 points last season.

TIP-INS

1. Young is the first Sooner to record consecutive point-assist double-doubles since John Ontjes in the 1994-95 season.

2. Arkansas has outscored its first three opponents by 64 points in the first half.

3. Macon is 8-for-8 from the foul line this season and has made 15 straight free throws dating to last campaign's NCAA Tournament.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 85, Arkansas 82

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:44 AM

Xavier vs. George Washington Preview and Predictions

Fourteenth-ranked Xavier won the Advocare Invitational in 2015-16 and the Tire Pros Invitational last season. The Muskeeters will try to win a holiday tournament for a third straight year when it faces old Atlantic 10 Conference rival George Washington on Thursday in the semifinals of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

"I want to win a trophy," senior forward Sean O'Mara said after the visiting Musketeers crushed Hampton, 96-60, on Monday night. "What am I? Three-for-four in Thanksgiving tournaments if we can get this done, so that's definitely a goal of mine." Xavier is 6-0 over the last two tournaments but just needs to go 2-0 this time around. The winner plays the winner of Thursday night's other semifinal between Arizona State and Kansas State on Friday afternoon for the championship.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, FS1

ABOUT XAVIER (4-0): The Muskeeters return three starters from a team that went 24-14 and advanced all the way to the Elite Eight a year ago. Senior guard Trevon Bluiett is a national player of the year candidate who is averaging 24.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists and earned Big East Player of the Week honors after scoring 25 points and pulling down nine rebounds in Xavier's 80-70 victory at Wisconsin last week. Senior guard J. P. Macura, the only Musketeer to start every game last season, is second in scoring (13.5) and assists (4.3) and leads the team in steals (2.3) while forwards Tyrique Jones (12.5 points) and Kaiser Gates (11.3) also are averaging in double figures.

ABOUT GEORGE WASHINGTON (2-2): The Colonials return five players who started 10 or more games last season on a squad that finished 20-15 and advanced to the second round of the College Basketball Invitational. Senior guard Yuta Watanabe, a 6-8 native of Kagawa, Japan, leads the team in scoring (13.5), rebounding (9.3), blocks (4.5) and free throw percentage (10-of-11, 90.9 percent). Sophomore guard Jair Bolden (13.3 points) and senior forward Patrick Steeves (12.8) also are averaging in double figures with Bolden also averaging a team best 4.0 assists.

TIP-INS

1. Xavier leads the Big East and ranks fifth nationally in field goal percentage at 56.8 percent.

2. Bluiett, a two-time first team All-Big East pick, has scored at least 21 points in each of the first four games.

3. Bluiett (1,682) and Macura (1,108) have combined for 2,790 points so far in their careers.

PREDICTION: Xavier 94, George Washington 66

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:44 AM

Central Florida vs. Nebraska Preview and Predictions

Isaac Copeland gave Nebraska a glimpse of what he could provide last time out and the Georgetown transfer hopes for more of the same when the Cornhuskers take on Central Florida on Thursday in the first round of the Advocare Invitational at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. Copeland, who had back surgery nine months ago, scored 30 points Sunday in the 92-70 victory over North Dakota.

"He's been doing this his whole life," Nebraska senior guard Anton Gill said of Copeland, who averaged 11.1 points in 2015-16 at Georgetown. "I've known him forever. This is him. This is what we expected." Copeland had just 21 points in the first three games of the season combined, including five in the Cornhuskers' only loss to St. John's, and will need another big effort against an unbeaten UCF team that has allowed 37.1 percent shooting. The Knights have knocked off Mercer, Gardner-Webb and William & Mary despite injury issues and can start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2010-11 on Thursday just a short ride from their campus. "On the defensive end, we're doing a good job of holding guys' field goal percentage to a low level, but we could be better," UCF coach Johnny Dawkins told reporters. "I think our guys realize that too. A lot of times we give up too many easy baskets and we're not as focused as we should be."

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN3

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (3-0): The Knights have been without first-team All-American Athletic Conference preseason pick B.J. Taylor (broken foot) for the last two games, but 7-6 junior center Tacko Fall made his season debut with 13 points in the 75-64 victory over William & Mary on Saturday. Senior forward A.J. Davis has gotten off to a strong start, averaging 13.3 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks. Davis shares the team scoring lead with sophomore guard Chance McSpadden, who is shooting 50 percent from the field overall and recorded a season-high 18 points on Saturday.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (3-1): The Cornhuskers have been quite balanced overall with six players averaging double figures in scoring, led by junior guard Glynn Watson Jr. at 13.5 points per contest. Miami (Fla.) transfer James Palmer Jr. and Copeland are next at 12.8 while Gill, who came over from Louisville last season, has averaged 11.5 in his first two games of 2017-18. Sophomore forward Isaiah Roby has also made quite an impact in the early going, averaging 10.3 points with team-highs of 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 22.3 minutes per game.

TIP-INS

1. UCF freshman G Ceasar DeJesus, averaging 11.7 points and 2.3 steals, was named AAC rookie of the week Monday.

2. Nebraska is shooting just 40.5 percent from the field overall and 30.4 from behind the 3-point arc.

3. Fall registered 164 blocks in his first two seasons with the Knights and swatted one in his 2017-18 debut Saturday.

PREDICTION: Nebraska 72, Central Florida 68

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:45 AM

Seton Hall vs. Rhode Island Preview and Predictions

No. 22 Seton Hall expected big things after returning 90 percent of its scoring and rebounding from a team that won 21 games last season, and the Pirates open the NIT Season Tip-Off Thursday in Brooklyn, N.Y., against Rhode Island unbeaten in four games. A trio of Pirates lead the charge offensively as Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez each have surpassed 1,000 career points, and several reserves played well in Saturday's 82-53 victory over New Jersey Tech.

"The other guys gave us a lot of energy," Rodriguez told reporters after scoring 19 points in the victory. "Our starters were sluggish today and they came and picked us up and ran up the score." The Rams have won two of their first three games, rebounding from a loss to Nevada to defeat Holy Cross 88-66 on Sunday. Andre Berry scored a career-high 20 points in the victory and Rhode Island played solidly, recording 22 assists and 13 steals with only nine turnovers. "Any win that we get this year - and hopefully, there are going to be a lot of them - is a great win," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley told the media afterward.

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPNU

ABOUT SETON HALL (4-0): Rodriguez leads the Pirates in scoring at 17 points per game, helping to lead an offense scoring 82.8 points per contest. Delgado, who averaged 13.1 rebounds per game last season, is averaging 12.8 points and 8.5 rebounds through four games. Carrington, who led the Pirates in scoring at 17.1 points per game last season, has made a smooth transition to point guard, averaging 5.3 assists and 1.5 steals to go with 12 points per game.

ABOUT RHODE ISLAND (2-1): The Rams are averaging 84.3 points per game so far, using a four-guard starting lineup to push the tempo. Jared Terrell equaled his career high with 25 points against Holy Cross and has scored 49 points in his past two games after being held to six points in the season opener. That guard play is important with E.C. Matthews, who has scored 1,547 career points, sidelined for six weeks with a fractured wrist.

TIP-INS

1. Rhode Island has forced an average of 19.3 turnovers per game and has caused at least 14 turnovers in every game so far this season.

2. Seton Hall freshman F Sandro Mamukelashvili blocked four shots against NJIT, finishing with 11 points and nine rebounds off the bench.

3. Thursday's winner faces either Vanderbilt or Virginia on Friday.

PREDICTION: Seton Hall 81, Rhode Island 76

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:48 AM

NFL opening line report: Patriots open Week 12 as biggest betting favorites of the season
Patrick Everson

“It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving Day games, although only one of those matchups appears to be worth pulling you away from the kitchen or the dining room table. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for that contest and three others this week, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (pick)

Minnesota continues to get it done on the field and at the betting window, winning six in a row while cashing in the last five. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) pulled away from the Los Angeles Rams in the second half Sunday, nabbing a 24-7 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), though it was a struggle to get that last one. The Lions went to Chicago as a 3-point chalk and twice trailed by 10, but rallied for a 27-24 victory.

Bookmaker.eu opened the game pick ‘em, but the Vikings moved to -1.5 late Sunday night for the first game on Turkey Day, a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

“The Lions can’t afford to fall behind here, as they seemingly do week after week,” Cooley said. “Minnesota has proven to be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Detroit is a quality club as well. It feels like the public will be on the chalk, but sharps may side with the home squad. We’ll just wait and see where this one goes.”

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:49 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

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MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:50 AM

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Thursday, November 23

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:50 AM

NFL

Week 12

Thursday's games
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4)— Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.

Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)— Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.

Giants (2-8) @ Redskins (4-6)— Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:50 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 107-108
November 23, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
142.010
Detroit
136.535
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Dallas

Game 109-110
November 23, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
136.668
Dallas
132.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-2); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 111-112
November 23, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.670
Washington
131.653
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+7 1/2); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:51 AM

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:51 AM

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Thanksgiving Day games

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

The Vikings didn’t look like world beaters when the Lions pushed them out to sea in a 14-7 loss at home in Week 4. But since that setback, Minnesota has won six in a row and covered in five straight games.

The Purple People Eaters are the only team to rank inside the top five in total offense and total defense – and that’s without their preseason first choices at quarterback and running back on the active roster.

The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games, but there is one weakness that seems to be getting worse by the week. Detroit gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Bears on Sunday – making it back-to-back outings with opponents rushing for over 200 yards against the club.

The Lions are missing their run-stuffing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The defense allowed just 74.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with Ngata and 153.8 in the five games without him.

LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
*The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
*The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 47.5)

All of NFL Twitter is still chuckling at the Bills' decision to start Nathan Peterman against the Chargers, but there should be some credit being given to the Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth best passing D and the club allows only 1.2 passing TDs per game. The Bolts are third in sacks per game and they’ve picked off opposing quarterback seven times in their last two games.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a career-worst, three-pick performance on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news for Dallas backers is that Prescott's blindside should be well protected against the Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram because All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to make his return from a two-game absence.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites but the Bolts are now 1-point road chalk. There hasn’t been as much movement on the total. Most shops are all dealing 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the last six years on Thanksgiving Day.
*The Chargers 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)

The Redskins blew a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with less than three minutes to play at New Orleans on Sunday. The game turned against Washington backers when their team failed to pick up a first down on a third-and-one play with 2:36 left to go and the Saints without any timeouts remaining. The Redskins would have been able to ice the game had they picked up the first down.

Struggling on third and short isn’t out of character for Washington. The squad ranks 26th in the league when trying to pick up a first down on third and one situations. They average negative .43 yards before contact in those spots according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Giants are coming off an outright win as double-digit dogs against Kansas City last week. Head coach Ben McAdoo got a lot more creative with his play calling in the game by calling the first fake punt in 13 years for the G-Men according to the New York Post. The Giants also had running back Shane Vereen try a pass on a halfback option and threw defensive tackle Robert Thomas in as a fullback on a goal line play. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Washington as 7.5-point home faves and that’s where it stands now although there are a few shops dealing -7 with a little extra juice. The total is holding steady at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The over is 24-7 in Washington’s last 31 games overall.
*The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games between these two divisional rivals.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:52 AM

NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Redskins are giving 7.5 points to the Giants on Thanksgiving but this Las Vegas oddsmaker thinks the spread should be closer to Washington -9.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.

Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.

Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.

I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)

This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.

I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.

The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.

I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)

After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.

After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.

Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.

Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-23-2017, 08:53 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Thanksgiving Day edition
Monty Andrews

The Vikings will look to extend their hot streak on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)

Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game

The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.

Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.

The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line

It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.

The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.

The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.

With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess

The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.

The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).

That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).

If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.