Wild Card Weekend Betting Info

[New York Knight]

The Chiefs are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 playoff games.

Since 1991, they're 0-7 ATS in home playoff games.

[New York Knight]

Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the West Coast.

[New York Knight]

Since 2007, home teams in the Saturday Wild Card games are 14-5-1 ATS

[New York Knight]

Regular Season Recap ...


Favorites
136-112 ATS (55%), +18.3 units


Dogs
112-136 ATS (45%), -29.5 units


Favorites Week 7-17
98-60 ATS (62%), +34.1 units

[New York Knight]

Regular Season Recap ...


Overs
119-137 (46.5%), -22.29 units


Unders
137-119 (53.5%), +11.04 units


Divisional Unders
57-39 (59.4%), +15.04 units


Divisional Unders with total >40
51-29 (63.8%), +19.45 units

[New York Knight]

Buffalo hasn't won a playoff game since 1995 (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS)

[New York Knight]

Should Bettors be Worried about the Jaguars’ Losing Streak?


The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Everbank Field. It is the Jags’ first playoff appearance since 2007. The oddsmakers opened Blake Bortles & Co. as 7.5-point favorites at home, yet a majority of early spread tickets are taking the Bills and the points. This is likely a reaction to the way Jacksonville ended its season.

The Jaguars enter the playoffs having lost two in a row, the team’s first losing streak of the season. No team wants to limp into the postseason but should back-to-back loses to the 49ers and Titans concern bettors?

Using the Bet Labs database, teams that lost their previous game have gone 27-28 straight-up and 23-31-1 (42.6%) ATS in the playoffs since 2003-04.

Not great but if you dive deeper into the results a surprising trend emerges.


Small sample size alert ...

While we would not recommend placing a wager based solely on these results there is a clear divide between teams that lost their previous game (12-25 ATS) and those on a losing streak (11-6-1 ATS). The difference in ATS win rate can be attributed to public perception. Recreational bettors can give one-loss teams who rested starters in Week 17 a free pass heading into the playoffs, but that’s much more difficult to do with teams off two or more losses.

One loss can be forgiven but Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s know casual bettors will have a hard time backing a team on a losing streak in the postseason, which can lead to inflated lines. Of the previous 18 teams to enter the playoffs on a skid of two or more games, only seven received a majority of spread bets.

Recreational gamblers are shying away from the Jags, though the line has moved to Jacksonville -9 at CRIS, a sharp book, despite a majority of tickets and money being placed on Buffalo

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"KC back to -8, Rams -6, Jax -7.5, Saints -6.5. Fair amount of money on MLs and teasers with all home teams as expected"

[New York Knight]

General Market Reaction ...

Each of the four games this weekend has around 5,000 bets, compared to about 1,000 Sports Insights normally see during the regular season. Though bettors, both sharp and square, are piling on each of these games, there is nothing attracting one-sided action. The highest spread percentage a team has is 58% (Rams) and the highest percent of bets a total is getting is 61% (TEN/KC Under.) Now that the lines have “matured” so to say, it will be interesting to see whether or not a team does start receiving one-sided action.


Line Moves ...

Every game has seen line movement since opening, but not too many key numbers have been impacted. Kansas City and Jacksonville’s lines have seen very similar movement, as they’ve both moved from a juiced up -7 to a even payout -9.

The Rams have seen the most significant movement so far, going from -4.5 to -6.5. They’ve also received the highest level of bets and dollars for any of the eight teams playing this weekend.


https://cdn-sportsinsight.pressidium.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/rams-money.png


If the Rams hit the key number of seven, we imagine it will be at a juiced-up price and we’ll likely see buyback. The Falcons may not have had the greatest year, but they made the Super Bowl last season, have the reigning MVP, have the 2nd-best wide receiver in the league, and a strong team all around. They’ll be facing a team with essentially no experience and although Todd Gurley and Jared Goff will be getting some MVP votes, neither have played in a big game before.

The Saints, who are also receiving the slight majority of both bets and dollars, are also on the verge of moving to -7. Given the familiarity of these two teams, I’d be surprised if oddsmakers gave bettors the option to take the Panthers plus a touchdown. We’ve yet to see any sharp money indicators on this game, or any of the games for that matter, but I believe we’d have to see heavy Saints money to push them to -7.


Playoff Points ...

We have a variety of totals, ranging from the high 30’s to nearly 50.

At 39.5, the Bills-Jaguars total is mighty low. However, 60% of bettors are taking the under.


https://cdn-sportsinsight.pressidium.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/jags-under.png


Given this level of betting activity, the total has dropped from 40 to 39.5, but this hasn’t been a good spot historically for the under. Since 2003, the under has gone just 12-17-1 in playoff games with a total in the 30’s.

The Falcons-Rams total has dropped from 50 to 48.5 at Pinnacle (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fcappersmall2.com%2Flines.ph p) thanks to nearly 80% of dollars on the under. Historically, playoff games that are played outdoors with a closing total of at least 47.5 have gone under more than 75% of the time, which may be a trend sharp bettors have caught on to.

[New York Knight]

Nine points is a lot to cover, especially in a playoff game, but the Chiefs and Jags are on serious rolls at home.

KC has won 3 straight at home by an average of 14.6 points.

JAC has won 5 straight at home by an average of 16.6 points.

[New York Knight]

Every Saints home playoff game since 1980 has gone Over (8 Overs)

The total has gone Over in 6 of the last 7 games between the Panthers and Saints. Those games had an average combined score of 57.1.

Total for Sunday's game is 48½

[New York Knight]

The Panthers lost both games to the Saints, since 2003, divisional teams that got swept in the regular season are 9-8 in the playoff game.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSpKpVaVoAIlVfR.jpg

[New York Knight]

Contrarian Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs


Public perception artificially inflates lines and sharp bettors can capitalize on these market overreactions by zigging when the public zags.

One of our favorite strategies at Bet Labs is betting against the public. Of course, the postseason is a different animal than the regular season. Is fading the public a viable strategy after Week 17?

Since 2003, teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 75-75-4 (50.0%) ATS in the postseason. If the team attracting little attention from recreational bettors is also an underdog, the win rates improves to 51.8% (44-41-3 ATS), but the larger the dog the bigger the bite.


Underdogs of more than five points receiving less than 50% of spread tickets have gone 738-703-32 (51.2%) ATS in the regular season.

In the playoffs the winning percentage increases to 60.0%, 27-18-1 ATS. For Bet Labs users, adding one more additional filter gives us an NFL Playoff system that has hit at 65.7% ATS and returned a profit of $933 for a $100 bettor.


Panthers-Saints

There are three games that match this Pro System in Wild Card Weekend. The most intriguing of the bunch is Panthers-Saints. New Orleans will try for a third-straight victory over Carolina after sweeping the regular season series. Since 1990, there have been 16 teams that swept a division rival in the regular season and met that opponent for a third time in the playoffs. The team that swept the regular season went 11-5 straight-up but 8-7 ATS.

History, and the betting markets (Saints -310 on the moneyline), are on New Orleans’ side to advance. Though, as a big favorite garnering public action, there is value on Carolina. Currently 47% of spread bets are taking Cam Newton & Co. as 7-point underdogs. In our Pro System, teams that are touchdown or greater underdogs have gone 18-7-1 (72.0%) ATS since 2003.

If you play the Panthers you won’t have to just rely on this betting trend. Carolina has the defense to make some noise in the playoffs. According to Football Outsiders, Carolina finished the season 9th in weighted DVOA and No. 1 in adjusted sack rate (50 sacks, 3rd best in the NFL). Plus, while Cam has been inconsistent he has shown flashes of the player that won the MVP two years ago (28 total touchdowns and over 4,000 yards of offense). The public is betting on a sweep by the Saints, contrarian gamblers can find an edge taking an unpopular dog.

[New York Knight]

Future Bets to Consider Before Wild Card Weekend


The regular season is in the books and Bet Labs has simulated the NFL Playoffs 10,000 times to determine the most likely AFC and NFC champions as well as each team’s probability of winning the Super Bowl. Football is hard to predict but based on our math, here are the future bets (from 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229)) you should look into before Wild Card weekend.



AFC Championship

Only one team is offering value to win the AFC Championship and it’s not the Patriots. New England advances to the Super Bowl nearly 50% of the time but at -128 odds, Brady and Belichick are overpriced.

Defense wins championships, especially elite pass defenses. Since 1990-91, of the top 15 pass defenses by DVOA, seven ended up winning the Super Bowl and three more lost in the conference championship. Why does this matter? Jacksonville is No. 1 in pass DVOA this year and if they are to make a deep postseason run it won’t be on the arm of Blake Bortles. The Jags have lost two straight, but that’s not something bettors should worry about in the Wild Card round or when placing a bet on Jacksonville +900 to win the AFC.

If you can’t swallow placing a bet on Bortles (I don’t blame you), the Steelers +280 is offering fair odds. Of course, Antonio Brown’s healthy is a major concern.


Odds to win the AFC


Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)

Patriots / -128 / 47.6

Steelers / +280 / 27

Jaguars / +900 / 15.4

Chiefs / +900 / 8.9

Titans / +4500 / 0.8

Bills / +5000 / 0.4




NFC Championship

According to Elias, the Rams are the second team to go from worst (14.0 points per game) to first (29.9 points per game) in scoring. With an MVP candidate in Todd Gurley and a balanced team (6th in defense and 2nd in special teams DVOA), L.A. is the most likely team to finish on top of the NFC. At +470, the 3rd best odds to win the conference, Sean McVay’s team is the best value bet on the board.

The Eagles (+500) are another team underpriced by Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s according to our simulations. Nick Foles is no Carson Wentz but a first-round bye plus home-field advantage can’t go overlooked by bettors.


Odds to win the NFC


Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)


Vikings / +172 / 25.2

Saints / +435 / 11.9

Rams / +470 / 27.2

Eagles / +500 / 25.9

Falcons / +900 / 3.4

Panthers / +1150 / 6.4



Super Bowl

Unless you skipped right to the Super Bowl section you probably have a good idea of which teams are offering bettors value to win the NFL Championship. A week ago, we encouraged our readers to take the Rams and Jags. Nothing has changed other than each team’s odds inflating slightly after Week 17 losses. These teams are mirror images of each other, elite defenses (top 5 against the pass) that rely on strong rushing attacks to drive the offense.

If you are feeling frisky, there is also value on a Rams-Jags Super Bowl (+5750). The implied probability suggests a 1.7% chance we get this exact matchup, according to our numbers it occurs 2.5% of the time.



Odds to win the Super Bowl


Team / Odds / Projected Probability (%)


Patriots / +220 / 26.7

Vikings / +425 / 12.5

Steelers / +575 / 14.1

Saints / +950 / 5.3

Rams / +1150 / 15.1

Eagles / +1250 / 10.7

Jaguars / +1750 / 7.5

Chiefs / +1750 / 3.8

Falcons / +2300 / 1.2

Panthers / +3000 / 2.9

Titans / +10000 / 0.2

Bills / +11500 / 0.1

[New York Knight]

Since Andy Reid became head coach of the Chiefs, the Under is 27-14 (65.9%) in games played at Arrowhead Stadium.




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DStyPfKVoAANk84.jpg

[New York Knight]

The Titans have ruled RB DeMarco Murray out with a bad knee sprain, as expected.

[New York Knight]

Should Bettors be Nervous about Surprise Teams that Make the NFL Playoffs?


The Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars are two of the biggest surprise teams of 2017. A year ago, the Rams ended their first season back in L.A. with a 4-12 record that included seven straight losses once they turned the ball over to top overall pick, Jared Goff. In Jacksonville, the Jags finished 2016 with a 3-13 record. It was the sixth-straight season of five or fewer victories.

Fast forward a year and the outlook for each franchise is much improved. Los Angeles (11-5) led the league in scoring and won the NFC West for the first time since 2003, while Jacksonville (10-6), on the strength of the No. 1 defense by DVOA, won the AFC South for the first time ever.

Heading into Wild Card Weekend, the Rams (-6.5 vs. Falcons) and Jags (-8.5 vs. Bills) have high expectations but should bettors be concerned about backing teams after a dramatic year-to-year turnaround?

L.A. and Sacksonville saw their win totals jump by seven games apiece. Since 1990, 23 other franchises had a win total improvement of seven or more games. Three of the teams didn’t make the playoffs, if we exclude them from our sample and focus just on the postseason participants, the results will make fans of the Rams and Jags, as well as bettors, nervous.



Of the 23 teams, only seven made it to the conference championship game, three reached the Super Bowl and one, the 1999 St. Louis Rams, won it all. In all, the teams that made a big jump from one year to the next went 13-18 (41.9%) straight-up and 9-22 (29.0%) ATS in the playoffs.

Oddsmakers expect the Rams and Jags to advance to the divisional round but history is not on their side to cover or make deep postseason runs.

[New York Knight]

6 consecutive games without multiple pass TD for Matt Ryan ... Longest streak of his career.


But, in the playoffs …

15-3 TD / INT ratio in last 5 playoff games

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


These are the bets getting the highest percentage of the money in this weekend’s NFL playoff games.


TENN / KC under 44 ... 84%

BUFF / JAX under 39.5 ... 75%

LAR -6.5 ... 55%

CAR +7 ... 55%

ATL / LAR under 48.5 ... 55%

[New York Knight]

Alex Smith ranked 1st in passer rating and 3rd in ANY/A


Marcus Mariota ranked 27th in passer rating and 22nd in ANY/A

[New York Knight]

Two big spreads for the Wild Card round ... KC -8½ and JAC -8½


Since 1996, teams favored by -7.5 or more in the Wild Card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS.

[New York Knight]

When was the last time favorites went 4-0 ATS in Wild Card Weekend?

Last year and one other time (2012) since 2003


Best year for dogs?

2013 when they went 3-0-1 ATS

[New York Knight]

Titans vs Chiefs


The Chiefs have won their last three home games by an average of 14.6 points.

The Titans averaged just 17.5 points per game on the road this season, along with the third fewest yards per game on the road (270.8).

Marcus Mariota on the road this season: five TDs, 11 INTs, 69.1 QB rating.

In four career games vs the Titans, Alex Smith has a 1-3 SU record with three TDs and eight INTs.

The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Chiefs.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs' last eight games. The average combined score in these games was 42.25.

The Chiefs are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games in the late afternoon.

The Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on the road.

The Titans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.

The Titans are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games against AFC West teams.

The Titans are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a win.

The Titans are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on the road against teams with winning records.

[New York Knight]

Falcons vs Rams


The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their last five games as an underdog. They lost these games by an average of seven points.

The Falcons are 1-19 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog of six or more points.

The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at night.

The Rams are 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games at night.

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdog.

The Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the West Coast.

The favored team is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in this matchup.

Since 1991, the Falcons are 3-9 SU and ATS as an underdog in the playoffs.

Over his last four games, Todd Gurley has 749 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns.

Matt Ryan posted a 78.7 QB rating in December — his worst of any month this season.

The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last seven games against the Rams.

The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.

The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last five games. The average combined score in these games was 34.6.

[New York Knight]

Bills vs Jaguars


The Jaguars have won five straight home games by an average of 16.6 points.

The Bills are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games on the road.

The Jaguars rank first in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. Buffalo ranks 28th over the course of the entire season.

The Jaguars averaged the third-most yards per game in the NFL at home (337.3).

The total has gone OVER in the Bills' last five games against the Jaguars. The average combined score in these games was 55.

Blake Bortles has a 98 QB rating at home compared with a 69.4 QB rating on the road.

The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last seven games in the early afternoon.

The Bills are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road in January.

[New York Knight]

Panthers vs Saints


The Panthers rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. New Orleans ranks first over the course of the entire season.

In five career home playoff games, Drew Brees has 12 TD passes and 1 INT.

The Panthers are 1-3 SU in their last four games against the Saints.

The Panthers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Saints.

The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers' last seven games against
the Saints. The average combined score in those games was 57.1.

New Orleans is first in the league with 30.1 points per game at home.

The Saints are 5-0 SU in their last five home playoff games.

The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

The Panthers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games in the late afternoon.

The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games.

The Panthers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road against the Saints.

The Panthers are 1-6 SU in their last seven divisional road games.

[New York Knight]

What Refs Bettors Need to Know for Wild Card Weekend


Jeff Triplette, Ed Hochuli, John Hussey and Tony Corrente will lead the four crews officiating the Wild Card games. Referees are expected to be impartial but are there tendencies that bettors can exploit?


Note: Records include regular season and playoff games since 2003.


Jeff Triplette: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Tennessee Titans


◾Favorites: 81-67-2 ATS (54.7%, +10.82 units)

◾Home Teams: 68-77-2 ATS (46.9%, -11.57 units)

◾Overs: 76-70-4 (52.1%, +2.36 units)

◾Chiefs: 6-3 ATS

◾Titans: 5-8 ATS


If you like betting the favorite, 65% of spread dollars have moved the Chiefs from -7.5 to -8.5, Jeff Triplette is the zebra for you. The chalk is 81-67-2 (54.7%) ATS when Triplette officiates, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $1,082 betting his games – most profitable in the Bet Labs database.



Ed Hochuli: Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons


◾Favorites: 66-89-4 ATS (42.6%, -26.29 units)

◾Home Teams: 72-81-4 ATS (47.1%, -12.15 units)

◾Overs: 76-81-2 (48.4%, -8.14 units)

◾Rams: 6-4 ATS

◾Falcons: 1-8 ATS


Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Based on this information I’d say the muscle-bound NFL rules enforcer has a thing for the pooches. Underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when biceps-Ed oversees a game.



John Hussey: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Buffalo Bills


◾Favorites: 26-19-1 ATS (57.8%, +5.32 units)

◾Home Teams: 23-21-1 ATS (52.3%, +0.50 units)

◾Overs: 18-27-1 (40.0%, -9.89 units)

◾Jaguars: 0-2 ATS

◾Bills: 1-1 ATS


We don’t have a lot of information about Hussey as this is only his third season as a crew chief.



Tony Corrente: New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers


◾Favorites: 72-78-3 ATS (48.0%, -8.34 units)

◾Home Teams: 76-71-3 ATS (51.7%, +2.63 units)

◾Overs: 64-87-2 (42.4%, -25.41 units)

◾Saints: 5-4 ATS

◾Panthers: 7-2 ATS


The total for Saints-Panthers is sitting at 48.5, tied for the highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the Over, which could burn bettors. Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field.



Placing a wager based solely on the past results of the referee officiating the game would be unwise, but this is one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler. Knowledge leads to an edge, an edge turns into profit.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on Wild Card Weekend


"Line heads north in all 4 games. Sharp action on Rams & Saints. Bills drawing bulk of tickets vs. Jags, but more money on JAX. And ticket count 2/1 on Chiefs at home vs. Titans"

[New York Knight]

TITANS AT CHIEFS (-9) | O/U: 44

Saturday, 4:20 p.m. ET | ESPN


Betting market ...

Despite the move from -7 to -9, there’s not much to talk about in terms of sharp or public action. One interesting angle here: KC is a big parlay/teaser play, so this game could set up the entire weekend for the books/public



What the metrics say ...

The Titans are a total fraud. They’re one of only two playoff teams with a negative point differential — and they played one of the easiest schedules in the league. But the Titans actually match up fairly well with KC. Their rush defense (fourth overall in yards per game and yards per carry allowed) can contain the Chiefs’ ground game. And Tennessee should be able to run on KC’s 32nd-ranked rush defense in DVOA.



Injury watch ...

Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) has already been ruled out, meaning we’ll get Round 2 of the Derrick Henry Show vs. the Chiefs’ putrid rush defense (see above). Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ backup RB stable is far from healthy, as both RB Akeem Hunt (ankle, out) and RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas (leg, out) were placed on IR following Week 17. CB Phillip Gaines (elbow, out) joins them, but the Chiefs’ defense at least tentatively expects to have contributors DL Jarvis Jenkins (knee, questionable), DE Tamba Hali (knee, questionable), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder, questionable), DL Bennie Logan (knee, questionable), and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle, questionable). The Chiefs’ offense will welcome back RB Charcandrick West (flu, probable), while WR Albert Wilson (hamstring, probable) will look to ball out against a Titans secondary that could be without CB Brice McCain (hamstring, questionable) and feature a less-than-100% CB Logan Ryan (illness, questionable).



According to weather data, winds of 10 mph are expected at kickoff, along with 30-degree temps. Marcus Mariota has played just two games in temperatures below freezing during his college and pro career. He won and covered both contests. One came last week vs. the Jags. The other? Last December, when Mariota trailed by 10 points entering the fourth quarter and led the Titans back to victory on the road in … Arrowhead.



Sneaky storylines ...

The Chiefs struggle in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 42% of their drives inside the 20. That ranks 29th in the NFL, and it’s the worst mark among all playoff teams. KC also ranks 29th with 65.2 penalty yards per game, while the Titans are much more disciplined (49.1, fifth overall).



DFS edge ...

Alex Smith, 2017’s QB4 in average DraftKings PPG, scored 25-plus DraftKings points in five games, an incredible feat considering Smith passed that threshold on just three occasions in 2014-16. He’s set up well against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Smith is especially appealing on FanDuel, where he is the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan and CSURAM88 Models, although he is projected to be the highest-owned QB across the industry.



The under is worth a strong look, especially since you can count on Reid botching the time management at the end of a half to cost his team points. KC’s ability to take care of the ball (league-best 11 turnovers all season) will be the difference; Tennessee had a minus-4 turnover differential this season, worst among all playoff teams.

[New York Knight]

FALCONS AT RAMS (-5.5) | O/U: 48

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC


Betting market ...

This line opened Rams -4.5, moved up to -6.5, and bumped back down to -5.5 on Thursday evening. Such a big move across a key number (-6) indicates this could be sharp money. With the ticket count exactly 50-50, it will be interesting to see if the public takes more of a side as the game gets closer.



Injury watch ...

The Falcons will have to make do without LG Andy Levitre (triceps, IR), but RB Devonta Freeman (knee, not listed on final report), WR Julio Jones (rib/ankle, not listed), C Alex Mack (calf, not listed), TE Levine Toilolo (knee, not listed) and WR Taylor Gabriel (hamstring, not listed) are all good to go. The Rams’ decision to rest starters in Week 17 appears to have paid off, as their only injured players — LB Mark Barron (Achilles, questionable) and WR/KR Pharoh Cooper (shoulder, questionable) — are expected to give it a go Saturday night.



What the metrics say ...

Expect a big day out of the Falcons’ RB duo: The Rams rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). LA has been much better against the pass (third in pass DVOA), but they lost Kayvon Webster for the year a few weeks ago and haven’t really been tested since by a productive passing attack.



The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.



DFS edge ...

Todd Gurley’s ascension as a receiver can’t be overstated. He converted 84 targets in 2015-16 into a 64-515-0 line, but exploded for a 64-788-6 line on 87 looks this season. This would make Gurley the PPR WR25 before taking into consideration his rushing production. A receiving floor this high is unfair when coupled with Gurley’s plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities on the ground, as he’s converted a league-high 18 carries inside the 5-yard line into a league-high nine touchdowns from that distance. Throw in 15 rushes of 15-plus yards (tied for fourth among all backs), and we have a three-down machine who was cooked up by the fantasy gods. Gurley carries this week’s highest projected ceiling, floor, and projected Plus/Minus among all skill position players in our Pro Models.



Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game.



LA has one of the least-impactful home-field advantages in football, and the Rams are missing their stud kicker, Greg Zuerlein. With the Falcons’ excellent red zone defense (fifth overall), we’ll be seeing plenty of Zuerlein’s backup, Sam Ficken, who has already missed an extra point and a 35-yarder in his two games this season. I’ll take the more experienced team that’s coming into the playoffs with momentum and advantages in some key advanced metrics.

[New York Knight]

BILLS AT JAGUARS (-9) | O/U: 39

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS


Injury watch ...

RB LeSean McCoy (ankle, questionable) will reportedly be a game-time decision after getting carted off the field in Week 17. Even if he’s able to play, McCoy will likely be limited. But QB Tyrod Taylor should at least have WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee, probable), T Jordan Mills (ankle, questionable), and TE Charles Clay (knee, probable) to take on the Jaguars’ league-best secondary. Jacksonville’s WR room remains in a constant state of flux, as Marqise Lee (ankle, questionable) still hasn’t returned to practice, but he is reportedly expected to play and has head coach Doug Marrone’s blessing to suit up Sunday even without having practiced all week. The rest of the Jaguars banged-up offense, namely TE Marcedes Lewis (ankle, probable) and LT Cam Robinson (abdomen, questionable), are tentatively expected to play, as well. They’ll face off against a healthy Bills defense that could be on the field a bunch if McCoy is unable to go.



McCoy was responsible for 33% of the Bills offense, second-most in the NFL behind Gurley. His loss would be felt even more considering the Bills’ lack of depth at RB (Mike Tolbert). Without McCoy, it’s hard to envision Buffalo taking advantage of the Jaguars’ biggest defensive weakness: They rank 26th in rush defense DVOA.



Weather report ...

Weather data forecasts 12 mph winds at kickoff. That would favor the Jags, who can lean on their 12th-ranked rushing offense in DVOA against the NFL’s second-worst rushing D. The wind factor is another negative for the Bills offense if McCoy isn’t his usual self: They’ll be forced to throw in adverse passing conditions with subpar receivers against the league’s best pass defense. Expect Tyrod Taylor to be under siege early and often with the Bills’ 31st-ranked O-line in adjusted sack rate facing the Jags’ No. 1 pass-rush.



DFS edge ...

Fournette quietly has carved out a decent-sized receiving role in addition to his goal-line back status, as his average of four targets per game since the Jaguars’ Week 8 bye is more than the likes of LeSean McCoy, Kareem Hunt, and Mark Ingram. He’s one of just four backs with at least seven games of 20-plus carries this season and couldn’t have asked for a better matchup to make his playoff debut. Overall, Fournette is the highest-rated back in the Levitan, Bales, and SportsGeek models in large part thanks to his matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed a slate-high 1.7 DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to running backs over the past 12 months. They’ve allowed an additional nine points and 64.2 rushing yards per game since trading defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to the Jaguars prior to Week 8.



What the metrics say ...

In a game that I expect to be low-scoring, red zone offense will be huge. The Jaguars have a big advantage there, scoring TDs on 64% of trips inside the 20 (second overall), compared to 52.3% for the Bills (21st).



In the past 15 seasons, 11 teams have played a home playoff game coming off a losing streak of two or more games. Those teams are 8-3 SU and ATS, and they have won and covered four in a row and six of their past seven dating back to the 2010 playoffs.



This should be a slugfest, especially with windy conditions expected.

[New York Knight]

PANTHERS AT SAINTS (-6.5) | O/U: 47.5

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET | FOX


The Saints beat the Panthers twice during the regular season, and since 1990, 15 teams have defeated the same opponent twice straight up in the same season and then subsequently faced them again in the playoffs. Those teams are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS.


What the metrics say, Pt. 1 ...

The Panthers’ biggest weapon defense is their pass-rush, which ranks third in adjusted sack rate. They’ll face off against a Carolina O-line adept at keeping Drew Brees upright (No. 2 in adjusted sack rate allowed).



What the metrics say, Pt. 2 ...

One major concern for the Saints? They struggle on third down on both sides of the ball: 19th on offense and 27th on defense. Those figures are troubling against a Carolina team that ranks in the top half of the league in both categories (seventh on offense and 13th on defense).



DFS edge ...

Death, taxes, Michael Thomas dominating the Panthers. Overall, the Saints WR has converted 27 career targets against Carolina into a 22-303-3 line, repeatedly roasting corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, PFF’s No. 102 and No. 88 overall cornerbacks this season. Thomas has continued to practice in a limited fashion due to a nagging hamstring issue, but it didn’t affect his playing time last week, as he played on 91% of the snaps and earned a 27% target share. Thomas leads the Saints’ fourth-ranked scoring offense in both targets inside the 10-yard line and balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. This incredibly fantasy-friendly workload has Thomas sitting atop both our Levitan and Bales Pro Models.



Injury watch ...

The Saints banged-up defense tentatively expects to welcome back DE Trey Hendrickson from his three-game absence, while the offense should have LT Terron Armstead (thigh, questionable), TE Josh Hill (shoulder, questionable), G Senio Kelemete (knee, questionable) and WR Michael Thomas (hamstring, probable) for Round 3 against the Panthers. Carolina’s offense is also healthy, with RB Jonathan Stewart (back, probable), G Trai Turner (concussion, probable), LT Matt Kalil (illness, probable), and WR Devin Funchess (shoulder, probable) all expected to suit up. S Kurt Coleman (ankle, probable) missed Week 17’s matchup against the Falcons, but announced his intentions to play Sunday by simply explaining, “It’s the playoffs.”



New Orleans has the better coach and quarterback, and don’t sleep on the Saints’ D-line. Their ability to get pressure with a standard pass-rush is the most underrated aspect of their team. With shutdown corners on the outside, they can devote an extra defender to spy Cam Newton in the run game.

[New York Knight]

A few interesting QB stats ...

Mariota on the road this season: 5 TDs, 11 INTs, 69.1 QB rating.

Bortles has a 98 QB rating at home this season compared with a 69.4 QB rating on the road.

Brees has 12 TD passes and 1 INT in five career home playoff games.

[New York Knight]

Panthers coach Ron Rivera: "I love being the underdog.'' He went into quite a speech about how the so-called experts didn't pick Carolina to get this far. So he definitely will use that as an edge.

And ...

Bettors love it when the Panthers are underdogs. Carolina went 5-2 ATS as a dog this season and is 30-20 ATS as an underdog since Cam Newton arrived in 2011, including 12-6 ATS when getting six points or more

[New York Knight]

How can you make money in the Playoffs? Pick the straight-up winner


Since 2003, the winning team in the Wild Card Round is 48-5-3 (90.6%) ATS

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ ...


Updated Weekend Action

58% on Chiefs -8
53% on Saints -7
51% on Falcons +5.5
51% on Jags -8.5

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"Teaser money still coming in strong on all 4 home teams"

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"All games have taken a move towards the under, but come game day we figure to see a reverse as 65% of all parlays will be connected to the over ... this move has been in place for many years now"

[New York Knight]

What will be the most points scored by one team this Weekend?

Bovada (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frecord.bettingpartners.com% 2F_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk%2F1%2F) ...

Over/Under 34.5


Since 2003 the Over would be 10-4

[New York Knight]

Top Bet‏ ...


Most popular bet so far is New Orleans who opened -6 and now are -7 (+105)

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"Took Chiefs ML -460 ... $46,000 to win $10,000"

[New York Knight]

Since 2003, in games with high winds (10 MPH or stronger) the UNDER is 438-348-10 (56%) ... including 20-13-2 (61%) in the playoffs


Forecast calls for average wind of 10 MPH for TEN vs KC

[New York Knight]

Top Bet ... on TEN-KC


Chiefs open -7, top out at 9, back to 8.5 Friday.

"This is the only wild card game where we got sharp action." Pros jumped on KC early. "59% of cash, 65% of bets are backing KC."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on TEN-KC


Chiefs open -7 Monday, hit 9 on Tuesday, Bounced between 8.5/9 rest of week, with "large bet on Chiefs" Friday taking it back to 9. However, down a full point today to 8.

Wagering includes $10K moneyline bet on Titans. Total opened 44.5, peak of 45, low of 44. "Sharps split on total, while public betting the over. Chiefs winning but not covering, and total staying under is ideal for us."

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on ATL-LAR


Rams open -6, get to 7, dip to 5.5, now 6.

"Action has been a bit of a roller coaster as the early money was on Atlanta, and then nothing but Rams money for the next four days."

On Thursday/Friday, "We’ve attracted more action on the underdog. The under is a popular pro play here, but the betting public loves the over." Total opened 49, now 48.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on ATL-LAR


Opened Rams -6, now back to 6 after trips to 6.5 on high end and 5 on low end.

"We're seeing strong sharp action on both sides of this line. The public is split as well."

Wagering includes $50K bet on Falcons ATS. "We are also seeing money on account on Falcons moneyline." Sharps also betting the under. Total opened 49.5, now 48.

"Rams winning but not covering, along with the over, is our ideal situation."

[New York Knight]

Top Bet ... on ATL-LAR


Rams open -5.5, reach 6.5, now back to 5.5. Until Friday

"This was the only game where we had any kind of line move in favor of the underdog." 59% of cash, 63% of bets are on Atlanta.

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on Wild Card needs


"Dogs in all four games, just like everyone else probably."

On today's two games, slightly more sharper action on Chiefs.

[New York Knight]

The past two seasons favorites of a touchdown or more are 58% (76-56-3) against the spread

[New York Knight]

No Idea Why NFL Trend of the Day ...

Since the 2010 season, 70% (yes, seventy percent) of home games for the Kansas City Chiefs have went UNDER the total

The UNDER during this time is 43-18-4 versus the number.

[New York Knight]

Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 ppg)

In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...


Sharp Action

Chiefs (small)
TEN-KC under
ATL-LAR under

[New York Knight]

MARKET UPDATE : TEN vs KC


TIX-COUNT = CHIEFS 1.5 to 1 ... UNDER 2 to 1

$$$-BET = CHIEFS 1.25 to 1 ... UNDER 1.25 to 1


Greatest RISK for Books = TEASERS (All KC)

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... Update


"Not surprising since it is first game of weekend KC has become our biggest football liability as of now. When factoring in Teasers (which almost all include KC) this is a huge game for the book to start the weekend"

[New York Knight]

Biggest Upsets - Wild Card History (Since 1978)

2010: Seattle (+10) over New Orleans
1996: Jacksonville (+8.5) over Buffalo
1983: Los Angeles (+8.5) over Dallas
2011: Denver (+8) over Pittsburgh

[New York Knight]

In the last 6 wild card games (dating back to 2013) with a spread of -6 or greater. The Under is 6-0

The underdog is averaging 11.2 ppg in those 6 games.

The Under is also 13-5-2 (72.2%) overall in wild card games over the last 5 years

[New York Knight]

Favorites of a touchdown or more have won 9 straight playoff games and 13 of the last 14.

[New York Knight]

Favorites favored by a touchdown or more last 5 years in the wild card round

16-3 SU (84.2%)

11-7-1 ATS (61.1%)

[New York Knight]

BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) ...


House needs Titans

62% of cash on Chiefs -8

83% of cash on KC -450

O/U 44.5 is split 50/50

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DS4tZZNVMAA5ESt.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) ...

Sharp plays:

Titans +9 (-110) or better ... now +8 (+100)

Falcons +6 (-110) or better ... now +5.5 (-104)

[New York Knight]

BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) ...


78% of the teaser cash on the Chiefs getting teased down ... 30% more cash on Chiefs teasers than straight bets on Chiefs spread.

[New York Knight]

Offshore Betting Breakdown


58% spread bets on KC

51% spread money on TEN

[New York Knight]

More TEN vs KC betting


67% of 1H tickets on KC (-5.5/-6)

56% of 1H tickets on Under (21.5 to 22.5)

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"Just took $22,000 bet on Titans +9"

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace ...

61 percent of the bets, 65 percent of the money bet on Tennessee-Kansas City is on the Chiefs.

[New York Knight]

Really balanced spread action across the offshore market for Falcons/Rams



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DS5Tws3U8AAZsx6.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

MARKET UPDATE : ATL vs LAR


TIX-COUNT = Falcons 2 to 1 ... OVER 3 to 1

$$$-BET = Falcons 1.5 to 1 ... OVER 2 to 1


EXOTICS = 2-Way $$$ (SIDE) ... 1-Sided OVER $$$

[New York Knight]

Dogs are 2-0 SU and ATS


Unders 2-0

[New York Knight]

Under now 8-0 in last 8 wild card games with a spread of -6 or greater and Under is 15-5-2 (75%) in the wild card round over the last 5 years.

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ...


Bills vs. Jaguars

Opening Odds (-7.5, 41)
Current Odds (-9, 39.5)

Public and pros on the Jaguars ... 70%+ of the $$$ on that side.

"Our biggest total liability is the under with sharps hitting it early and squares also expecting a defensive battle"

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ...


Panthers vs. Saints

Opening Odds (-5.5, 48)
Current Odds (-6.5, 47.5)

"We'd rather not see this hit a TD. Squares will pound the Saints + Over. If we move to -7, it’s likely many value players enter the fold with Carolina"