Title Game Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Nick Saban will face Kirby Smart, his former defensive coordinator.

Saban is 11-0 all-time against his former assistants with all 11 wins coming by at least 14 points.


In the 11 games which Saban beat a former assistant, the Tide were favored by an average of 17 ppg.

Only 1 game under a TD - that an early season game vs a Florida team which wound up going 3-5 in SEC in 2011.

This game/matchup is totally different than any of the others.

[New York Knight]

Updated line at LV SuperBook ... Alabama -3.5

[New York Knight]

Fun Fact ...

Georgia is the 7th team to play the National Championship in their home state since the introduction of the BCS in 1998.

The other 6 teams went 3-3

[New York Knight]

Sharp Money Hits National Championship Game for the First Time



In early College Football Playoff National Championship betting, sharp money had yet to make much of an impression on the betting line. However, after the line ticked down to Georgia +4 (after opening +4.5), Sports Insights Bet Signals triggered a Steam Move on the Bulldogs at +4, which drove the line down to the current number of +3.5.

A Steam Move is defined as sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. Steam is the result of a sudden overload of money placed at multiple sportsbooks and, in most cases, occurs due to betting groups, betting syndicates and a few key players with the resources to “get down heavily” at multiple locations, all at once.


Vegas sportsbooks are also seeing professional action on Georgia, including one big bet at MGM ...

"Sharp money pouring in on Georgia, including six-figure bet at MGM Resorts sports books. Alabama down to 3.5-point favorite at LV SuperBook, CG Technology and South Point



With 59% of spread tickets on the Tide, there’s an early public vs. sharp showdown brewing with recreational bettors leaning towards Alabama while professional players have gotten down on Georgia at +4 or better.

[New York Knight]

Updated William Hill ...


Bama (-4)

% of total # of tickets on spread ... 68%

% of total # of $$ on spread ... 80%


Bama (-180)

% of total # of tickets on ML ... 36%

% of total # of $$ on ML ... 90%


O/U (45)

% of total # of tickets on over ... 56%

% of total # of $$ on over ... 17%

[New York Knight]

Alabama has been favored in 110 of its last 111 games.

The last time the Tide were an underdog ... Oct. 3, 2015 at Georgia.

Alabama won that game 38-10.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...


Opened Tide -4

"We did take some 5-figure bets here on Alabama." Moved to 4.5. "Took a 6-figure bet on GA +4.5, and then some sharp money came at +4.5, so we slid that back down to 4."

Total opened at 47. "We've taken quite a bit of sharp money on the under. That total now stands at 45."

[New York Knight]

The setup ... Alabama (-3.5) vs. Georgia | O/U: 44


Betting market ...

Alabama opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229); the line was then released across the market with the Tide as 4.5-point favorites. It appears the early bets from sharp bettors took Georgia and the under. Our Bet Signals data triggered Steam Moves on Georgia (+4) and the under (45), which caused both lines to move down to the current numbers (+3.5 and 44). However, there’s still plenty of time for action to come in. It will be interesting to monitor how the line and total moves throughout the weekend.



Metrics overview ...

These teams are almost identical on both sides of the ball. Bama gains 6.7 yards per play on offense. Georgia: 6.9. Alabama allows 3.9 ypp on defense. Georgia: 4.6. Both offensive lines struggle in pass protection and thrive when run-blocking.



The coaches ...

One reason these schools are so similar statistically? Their head coaches are cut from the same cloth. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart served as the defensive backs coach at LSU under Nick Saban in 2004. In 2006, Smart rejoined Saban with the Miami Dolphins before eventually serving multiple years as Alabama’s defensive coordinator. But wait, it goes deeper. Jeremy Pruitt, Smart’s replacement at Alabama, came from Georgia while Bulldogs defensive coordinator Mel Tucker worked as a DB coach under Saban at Alabama. The intense overlap between the two programs, both statistically and schematically, is what makes this game so difficult to handicap



A few coaching trends ...

Nick Saban is the sixth-most profitable coach in our database when listed as a favorite against a conference opponent: 49-39 ATS, a +$808 profit for a $100 bettor.

Saban is also 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when facing one of his former Alabama assistants, winning by an average of 28.7 PPG and covering the spread by 11.7 PPG. Seven of the 11 games were played away from Tuscaloosa; Saban outscored his assistants 293-71 (31.7 PPG differential) in those contests.




Underdogs have covered in the past four national championship games. Since 2009, only three favorites have covered the spread in the national title: All three teams were coached by Saban (2009, 2011, 2012).

[New York Knight]

When Alabama has the ball


What the metrics say ...

Alabama’s bread and butter on offense is the run-pass option (RPO). QB Jalen Hurts has masked his inability to throw downfield for two seasons thanks to great decision making when running RPOs. But Georgia’s front seven, led by freakish LB Roquan Smith, has shut down similar RPO-reliant QBs this season.


The average Passing Success Rate for a QB is 40%. Here’s what a few RPO QBs did vs. the Dawgs this season:


•Brandon Wimbush, Notre Dame: 21% Passing Success Rate

•Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 27%

•Jarrett Stidham, Auburn: 31%

•Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 37%



DFS prospect to watch ...

WR Calvin Ridley. Ridley is widely expected to be a first-round pick, but he looks unlike a lot of successful Day 1 selections from previous seasons. Often compared to Amari Cooper, Ridley turned 21 as a true freshman: When Cooper was 21, he was in the NFL. When his advanced age is taken into account, Ridley’s 1,045-yard freshman season isn’t impressive and he’s regressed since then. Last year he had just 769 yards and this year he has just 16 percent of Alabama’s receiving touchdowns. With his smallish size (6’1″ and 190 pounds), Ridley will need to display good athleticism in his pre-draft workouts to justify his draft hype.

[New York Knight]

When Georgia has the ball


What the metrics say ...

Alabama boasts the nation’s No. 2 S&P+ Rush Defense, which will be critical against Georgia’s No. 8 ranked S&P+ Rush Offense. A deeper dive into the ground game matchup reveals that Alabama’s defense ranks in the top 15 in opportunity rate and adjusted line yards. Surprise surprise: Georgia’s offense also ranks in the top 15 of those two categories.



One advantage to keep an eye on ...

Georgia’s offense ranks 24th in Power Success Rate, defined as the percentage of runs that result in a first down on third-and-short and fourth-and-short. Alabama’s defense comes in at 119th overall.



Should this game be close late, watch out for Bama’s fourth-quarter defense, which ranks third in S&P+.



Injury watch ...

Alabama’s injuries at linebacker didn’t hurt them against a Clemson offense that struggles to produce explosive plays. But with Georgia’s rushing attack adept at breaking the game open, the losses of Anfernee Jennings (out), Shaun Dion (doubtful), and Dylan Moses (out) could loom large for Bama’s D.



DFS prospects to watch ...

RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. As a freshman, Chubb looked like a future first-rounder in relief of lead back Todd Gurley, but then he tore multiple ligaments in his knee as a sophomore and was capably replaced by Michel. Chubb returned to action as a junior and since then, he and Michel have formed one of the most dynamic backfield duos in the history of college football. Last game they broke the all-time teammate rushing record held by Eric Dickerson and Craig James (8,192 career rushing yards). They now have 67 more yards than the Pony Express — with 249 fewer carries. Both Chubb and Michel are Day 2 prospects with Day 1 potential.

[New York Knight]

A word about special teams



Georgia gets the nod here, as the Bulldogs lead the nation in Special Teams S&P+. Specifically, Georgia ranks fourth nationally in kickoff success rate while Alabama is only No. 105 in kickoff return success rate. Translation: You can expect Alabama’s starting field position to be at the 20 or less. Georgia’s field position off kickoffs has the potential to be much better, with Alabama’s JK Scott forcing a touchback just 47% of the time. The Dawgs should also benefit from placekicker Rodrigo Blankenship, who has been a little shaky from 40-49 yards (4-of-7), but has connected on a few key bombs this season, most notably a 55-yarder in the Rose Bowl. Alabama’s kicker, Andy Pappanastos, has gone just 4-of-8 on field goals of 40-49 yards this season, and Saban has yet to trust him with a kick of 50-plus. With the game expected to be heavy on defense and field position, Georgia’s advantage in the kicking game should not be overlooked.

[New York Knight]

The first-half under is also worth a look.


The margin in this game is razor thin. These teams could not be more similar and the game will ultimately come down to the little things. One example is red zone efficiency. The Bulldogs score on 95.7 percent of their drives inside the 20 (fifth in the country) compared to 88.1 percent for Alabama (36th in the country). Those tiny advantages inside the red zone, on special teams and in high-leverage short-yardage situations add up over the course of the game and could ultimately swing the matchup in Georgia’s favor.

[New York Knight]

Bama starting RG Lester Cotton Sr. is out for the title game, officially.

[New York Knight]

Alabama on the Verge of Being Most Heavily Bet Team in CFB Title History



With Alabama back in yet another championship game against the Georgia Bulldogs, we’re seeing them get a great deal of public support. With 63% of bets as of Sunday afternoon, they are tied for the highest percentage of spread bets ever tracked at Sports Insights for a national championship game.


https://cdn-sportsinsight.pressidium.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/bama-georgia.png


They’re tied with themselves, as they received 63% in 2010 as a 3.5 point favorite against Texas. They ended up winning that game 37-21.

With the large majority of casual bettors yet to place their bets, they should break the record and eclipse 63% by the time the game starts. Alabama is a super popular team and with tens of thousands of bets yet to be placed, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them move up to two thirds of bets or higher.

[New York Knight]

William Hill ... Sunday update



Bama ... 69% of Tickets on spread ... 73% Money on spread

Bama ... 37% of Tickets on ML ... 88% Money on ML

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)‏ ...


Opening Odds (-4, 47')
Current Odds (-3', 44')


Public all over Bama, but 85% of sharp action is on UGA. Always the possibility they're driving it down to take the other side.

Most of the total $$$ is on the under.

[New York Knight]

Prop thoughts ...


Hurts hasn’t thrown for more than 131 yards in any of his 3 CFP games.

O/U is 174.5

[New York Knight]

Prop thoughts ...


Longest TD set at 43 yards.

Last two years there has been 5 TDs of 50+ yards.

With two great defenses, might not get long scoring drives but one big play, even on D/ST

[New York Knight]

Hard to think this will be a high scoring game, but last 5 title game winners scored at least 34 points and there were at least 56 combined points in each game.

[New York Knight]

In last 3 games vs SEC teams, Alabama allowed 150+ rush yards and 6 rush TD.

In previous 19 games vs SEC teams, Bama allowed 6 rush TD and 100+ rush yards 3 times.

[New York Knight]

Can Jake Fromm continue 1st down success vs one of the best defenses in country?


Last 4 games ... 23-28 ... 4 TD ... (6) 20-yard comp on 1st down ... 9-10 in Rose Bowl.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"Took our 2nd $100,000 bet on Bama ML at -190 today. Also took another $50,000 bet on Bama spread this morning. Bama starting to become a pretty big liability for us tonight.

"Also had one guy buy half point from Bama -3.5 to Bama -3 twice yesterday for $50,000 a piece.


Unless some HUGE bets come in today we are probably going to have $500,000 liability to Bama

[New York Knight]

Saban is 11-0 vs. his former assistants, but these have been the spreads:

-7
-24
-10
-16.5
-14
-40
-19
-7.5
-3.5
-29
-17


Average spread: -17

Spreads under a TD: 1

[New York Knight]

Consensus line just ticked up:

Alabama -4

Anything from -3.5 to -5 is available around the market currently.

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ ...

Updated Action


Spread: 65% on Bama -3.5

ML: 60% on Bama -181

OU: 51% on Over 45.5


38,713 total bets

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace ...

Alabama (-4, 45.5)


65% of bets, and 54% of money is on the Crimson Tide

Lot of money-line support for Alabama, as well.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Bigger Prop Liabilities as of now are as follows:

Scarbrough to score a TD Yes

Calvin Ridley more receiving yards than Javon Wims

Team to commit 1st turnover Alabama

1st Team to score 15 points Alabama

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"Just took another $100,000 bet on Alabama -4 ... Liability really starting to creep up pretty high now"

[New York Knight]

South Point ...


"Player just laid $277,500 to win $150,000 on Bama ML -185 and $285,000 to win $150,000 on Bama ML -190"

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"While the Alabama spread liability is still creeping upwards, we have seen some Georgia ML the last 30 minutes taking down the ML Liability a bit"

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Bigger Prop Liabilities as of now are as follows:

Scarbrough to score a TD Yes

Calvin Ridley more receiving yards than Javon Wims

Team to commit 1st turnover Alabama

1st Team to score 15 points Alabama



More prop betting liabilities ...


Team to score last – Georgia

Alternate spread Alabama -10.5 (+250)

Allternate spread Alabama -7.5 (+175)

[New York Knight]

BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) ...


"Tons of action coming in. Sharp money on Georgia +4.5 and +4, so Bama favored by 3.5, even though 71% of the cash is on the Tide."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...



Nearly 6X more money has been bet on the Crimson Tide than Georgia

[New York Knight]

Jalen Hurts has 69 pass attempts and 0 interceptions in his three career bowl games.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"Georgia money keeps coming in ... including a $20,000 bet on the Dawgs 5 minutes ago"

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"There has been enough Georgia ML action last hour that the ML liability is now below $100,000 for first time all day. Spread liability still very high on Bama but has also come down a bit last hour"

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...


Sharp Action on the Over

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...


Alabama -4


64% of tickets ... 74% of money wagered on Alabama

[New York Knight]

William Hill ...


Bama ... 66% of Tickets on spread ... 63% Money on spread

Bama ... 39% of Tickets on ML ... 86% Money on ML

Over ... 55% of Tickets ... 49% Money

[New York Knight]

Betting trends for a handful of props that are available ...



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTDhIJnVoAAQ1GA.jpg

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ ...


Alabama is getting 65% of spread bets (-3.5) and 59% of moneyline bets (-184)

54% are taking the Under (46.5)


62,784 bets tracked

[New York Knight]

Vegas Gambling Steam‏ ...

Public % Top Bets

Alabama -4 (60%)

CFB 19-24 Last 30 Days

[New York Knight]

WHAT SHARPS SAY:


"The key to this game is going to be if Georgia can run the ball effectively against a strong Alabama defensive front. Georgia averages 267 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 169 yards per game and 4.4 ypr). However, the Bulldogs are now facing a strong Alabama defense that permits just 92 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry (versus opponents that averaged 167 yards per game and 4.3 ypr). Only two games all season in which Georgia ran for less than 200 yards (Notre Dame 185 yds and Auburn 46 yds). Meanwhile, Alabama did allow 144 or more rushing yards in four games this season (Colorado State, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn), going 0-4 ATS in those games."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"Liability in tonight's game has been steady for last hour or so ... been getting two way action past hour with no more big bets"

[New York Knight]

After beating a top 10 opponent by 14 or more points (Bama beat #1 Clemson 24-6), teams are 51-65-3 (44%) ATS in their next game since 2005

[New York Knight]

MARKET UPDATE


TIX-COUNT = ALABAMA 3 to 1 ... TOTAL : EVEN

$$$-BET = ALABAMA 2 to 1 ... UNDER 1.5 to 1

[New York Knight]

Bama now down to -3.5 at several Vegas books

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


64% Tickets on Bama ... 63% Money on Bama

[New York Knight]

BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) ...


"By far our biggest prop exposure is Kickoff returned for TD +1000"

[New York Knight]

Betonline ...


House huge Georgia fans

67% of the cash on Alabama -3 (-123)

70% of ML cash on the Tide (-181)

56% on Over (45.5)

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...

6 figures more on GA than BAMA in ATS wagers, but with everything else involved -- parlays, teasers, moneyline etc -- best result is Georgia and over.

Plenty of 6-figure ATS bets on both sides.

[ktc729]

Thank you for all your efforts on these New York Knight- it was great info and very useful!

[New York Knight]

Glad to help