Divisional Playoffs Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Career playoff starts ...


Marcus Mariota -1
Tom Brady - 34

Blake Bortles -1
Ben Roethlisberger - 20

Matt Ryan - 9
Nick Foles - 1

Drew Brees - 12
Case Keenum - 0

[New York Knight]

Since 2003, NFL favorites have been profitable ATS during the regular season in:

2005
2007
2013
2017

Underdogs are now 24-12-1 ATS in the playoffs of those four seasons.

[New York Knight]

Rest is overrated in the playoffs

Favorites with more than a week between games are 36-51-1 ATS since 2003


Patriots -13.5
Steelers -7.5
Vikings -3.5

[New York Knight]

Underdogs of 10 or more points in the playoffs are 3-12 (20%) straight-up since 2003

[New York Knight]

Without Wentz, Eagles have gone from 28.3 ppg to 15.7 ppg

[New York Knight]

Not a big edge but home underdogs are 19-13-2 ATS in the NFL playoffs since 2000.

[New York Knight]

Since 1990, backup quarterbacks are 11-21 straight up and 13-17-2 against the spread in the playoffs. On average, second-string quarterbacks in the playoffs have been 3.5-point underdogs and lost by 5.8 points. The results are worse this century with backups going 2-11 (15.4%) straight-up and 4-8-1 (33.3%) ATS since 2000.


Currently, 34% of spread bets are on the Eagles at home. Casual bettors want no part of Philly.

[New York Knight]

Since 1991, teams favored by 10 or more points in the divisional round are 12-6-1 ATS.

[New York Knight]

Saturday Divisional Round Games

The total has gone Over in 12 of the last 14 ... home team has won 9 straight.

[New York Knight]

DeMarco Murray officially out as expected.

[New York Knight]

Something to keep an eye on ...


Steelers CB Artie Burns left practice after suffering a non-contact right knee injury.

[New York Knight]

The Steelers lost to the Jaguars 30-9 in Week 5

Since 2012, there have been 13 teams to face a team in the playoffs after losing to that team by 20+ points in the regular season

Those teams went 1-12 in the postseason rematch (2014 Ravens avenged 20-point loss to Steelers)

[New York Knight]

It's calling for 17 degree F temps in Pittsburgh Sunday.

The Steelers are 9-1 SU, 7-2-1 ATS the last 4 seasons in 32F or colder. Best in the NFL in freezing temps over that time period.

[New York Knight]

The Vikings had the NFL’s #1 scoring defense and #10 scoring offense this season

In the Super Bowl era, there have been 26 previous teams to have the #1 scoring defense, as well as a top 10 offense for that season

Over half of those teams made the Super Bowl (14 of 26, 53.8%)

[New York Knight]

Marcus Mariota will make his 2nd career playoff start Saturday against the Patriots

Since 2001, quarterbacks making their first or second career playoff start are 0-7 against New England

[New York Knight]

Drew Brees: 12 career playoff starts
Case Keenum: 0 career playoff starts

The last quarterback without a playoff start to beat a QB with 10+ playoff starts
in a postseason game?

Tim Tebow over Ben Roethlisberger in the 2011 Wild Card Round

[New York Knight]

Tom Brady is 6-0 in his career against Mike Mularkey-coached teams.

Brady is 6-1 (including playoffs) against the Titans with 13 pass TDs and 1 INT in those games.

That is his best TD-INT ratio against any opponent in his career.

[Mr. IWS]

Career playoff starts ...


Marcus Mariota -1
Tom Brady - 34

Blake Bortles -1
Ben Roethlisberger - 20

Matt Ryan - 9
Nick Foles - 1

Drew Brees - 12
Case Keenum - 0

Whoa!

[New York Knight]

The Falcons have an all-time record of 4-9 SU in January road games. BUT, they're just 1-5 SU when playing on the road outdoors in cold weather climates in January.

The one win was in 2003 in Green Bay.

[New York Knight]

Tom Brady has faded in recent seasons ...


THIS YEAR
First 10 games: 1 INT
Last 6 games: 6 INTs

2016
Entire regular season: 2 INTs
Playoffs (three games): 3 INTs

2015
First 14 games: only TWO w/Passer Rating below 90
Final 4 games: THREE w/Passer Rating below 90

[New York Knight]

A few interesting live betting trends ...


PHI is 8-0 SU with a +13.75 avg point differential when scoring 1st.

JAC is 9-0 SU with a +20.11 avg point differential when leading after 1st Q

MIN is 6-0 SU with a +15.5 avg point differential when scoring 1st

[New York Knight]

Ben Roethlisberger has been extremely average in the playoffs ... 25 TDs, 23 INTs and a 84.3 QB rating.

In 9 playoff home games, he has 12 TDs and 14 INTs

[New York Knight]

NFC #1 seeds are 22-5 SU in the Divisional round since 1990. Eagles are +3 at home vs the Falcons.

*The last to lose was 2017 Cowboys (34-31 to Rodgers & Green Bay)

[New York Knight]

The total has gone UNDER in the last three games between the Jags and Steelers. Those games had an average combined score of 31.67.

Total for Sunday's game is at 41.

[New York Knight]

The Vikings are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games as home favorites.

They had an average win margin of 13.74 in the 19 wins.

[New York Knight]

Refs for the Divisional Round



Mike Pereira @MikePereira

"Horrible way to start the playoffs. I hate to say it but this was not a good performance by the crew. Teams and fans deserve better"



Jeff Triplette’s crew did such a poor job overseeing the Chiefs-Titans game that he retired. Let’s hope this weekend’s crews do a better job. Brad Vinovich, Ron Torbert, Brad Allen and Gene Steratore are the crew chiefs for the Divisional Round. Here is what bettors need to know about each official.

This is just one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler. The records below include regular season and playoff games since 2003.


Bill Vinovich: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)

◾Favorites: 34-32-2 (51.5%, -0.70 units)
◾Home Teams: 29-36-2 (44.6%, -8.42 units)
◾Overs: 30-37-1 (44.8%, -8.39 units)
◾Eagles: 2-3 ATS
◾Falcons: 4-3 ATS

In the regular season, the Over when Vinovich is on the field is 25-36-1 (41.0%) but 5-1 in the playoffs. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. The total for Eagles-Falcons opened 43.5 and has been bet down to 41. In the postseason, when the total decreases the Under is 44-36-3 and the win rate and return on investment improves the more the line goes down.



Ron Torbert: New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

◾Favorites: 28-17-1 (62.2%, +9.97 units)
◾Home Teams: 20-24-1 (45.5%, -4.95 units)
◾Overs: 27-19 (58.7%, +6.47 units)
◾Patriots: 2-0 ATS
◾Titans: 1-1 ATS

Jeff Triplette was the most profitable ref for favorites in our database until the Chiefs blew an 18-point halftime lead. Now Ron Torbert wears the crown, or would it be whistle? Favorites are 28-17-1 (62.2%) ATS when Torbert officiates a game. Like the Patriots need any more advantages against the Titans.



Brad Allen: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

◾Favorites: 31-29-1 (51.7%, +1.10 units
◾Home Teams: 34-25-1 (57.6%, +7.02 units)
◾Overs: 26-35 (42.6%, -10.16 units)
◾Steelers: 1-2 ATS
◾Jaguars: 1-1 ATS

Allen is the 3rd most profitable Under official in our database but most of those gains came in 2016 when the Under went 13-3 in games he officiated.



Gene Steratore: Minnesota Vikings (-5) vs. New Orleans Saints

◾Favorites: 69-79-6 (46.6%, -12.81 units)
◾Home Teams: 73-75-5 (49.3%, -5.75 units)
◾Overs: 74-76-4 (49.3%, -5.39 units)
◾Vikings: 5-3 ATS
◾Saints: 4-6 ATS

Last week we discovered that Ed Hochuli loves dogs, underdogs that is. A fellow canine enthusiast is Steratore. Underdogs have a profitable record in the regular season and playoffs when Steratore is in charge.

[New York Knight]

Jaguars QB Blake Bortles is the NFL’s highest-rated passer (147.3) on play action passes since Week 13

However, Bortles’ 68.3 passer rating on non-play action passes ranks 26th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks over the same span

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTTWx8tVoAAVSGY.jpg

[ktc729]

Crazy stat heading in the #eagles (https://twitter.com/hashtag/eagles?src=hash)https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags/NFL_2017_PHILEagles_v3/NFL_2017_PHILEagles_v3.png (https://twitter.com/hashtag/eagles?src=hash) #falcons (https://twitter.com/hashtag/falcons?src=hash)https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags/NFL_2017_ATLFalcons_v3/NFL_2017_ATLFalcons_v3.png (https://twitter.com/hashtag/falcons?src=hash) #NFL (https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFL?src=hash) Divisional Playoff game in Phila. Dome teams playing outside in playoffs when temperature is 35 degrees or less, 4-23 in last 27. Game time temp 35 going down into the 20’s.

[New York Knight]

Since Ryan Shazier's injury, Steelers are allowing 5.3 yards/carry, no other team is giving up more than 4.9 yards

[New York Knight]

Since 2003, the OVER is 26-8 (76.5%) in postseason games played inside of a closed dome

NO vs MIN total opened 44.5, up to 46.5

[New York Knight]

The last fave of 10+ pts to lose outright in the playoffs was CAR -10 vs. AZ in January 2009

Since then, double-digit favorites in the Playoffs are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS

[New York Knight]

With Wentz, Eagles ranked 3rd in third-down conversions, fallen to 30th with Foles

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...

Titans at Patriots (-13.5, 48)


58% of the bets are on the Patriots but 60% of the money is on the Titans

[New York Knight]

Cold weather expected for Divisional Round

In all games played since 2003, the OVER is 101-80-4 (55.8%) when the temperature is 32 degree or colder and the total is 44 points or less

JAX vs PIT average temp 20 degrees ... total 41.5

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)‏ ...

Saints vs. Vikings

Opener (-4, 44')
Current (-5, 47)


"Public believes Saints + is a gift from God. Recent Vikings sharp action greatly reduced our side liability"

"The over is our biggest total liability and the most wagered option by wiseguys"

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace ...


Saints at Vikings (-5, 47)

57% of bets are on New Orleans ... 69% of money is on Minnesota

[New York Knight]

Bortles, not know for being good, has struggled on the road this season:

55.6% completion, 6 TDs, 8 INTs


Includes games vs. Browns, Colts and Jets

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)‏ ...

Falcons vs. Eagles

Opener (+3, 43')
Current (+3, 41)


"The under has definitely seen a ton of sharp $$$ since the open. But with the public mostly on the over, it's offset a good chunk of the liability"

[New York Knight]

Antonio Brown (calf/illness, questionable) is a game-time decision for Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Jaguars.


Brown's calf is reportedly "still an issue" despite practicing this week. He's expected to play, but his status could go down to pregame warmups.

Playing at less than 100 percent, Brown could struggle in a matchup with Jalen Ramsey.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTWufHSU0AAeb5L.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)‏ ...

Titans vs. Patriots

Opener (-13', 47)
Current (-13, 48)


"Lowest handle so far. Public hesitant to lay the big spread. Minimal sharp interest has been on Titans. We’re fairly split handle wise with 55% of $$$ on Patriots and 63% on the over"

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on ATL-PHI


Line at Falcons -2.5 pretty much all week but: "One-sided account and over-the-counter action on the Falcons" with both pointspread and moneyline betting.

"We have taken a $60K bet on the Eagles moneyline. We have taken a $27K bet on the under." Total opened 44, down to 40.5.

"CGT needs the Falcons to win, but not cover, and the game to go over the total."

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on ATL-PHI


Sitting at ATL -3 all week. "The wager count and public percentage heavily favor the Falcons. But there’s been enough smart money on home ‘dog to keep spread from moving, and we might end up dropping it."

"This under has seen a ton of sharp money, but we've got the public on the over, so that's offsetting much of the liability." Total opened 43.5, reached 40 this morning.

"We’re comfortable where we’re at on the side and will be in great shape if we go over.”

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on ATL-PHI


Went from Falcons -2.5 to 3 almost immediately last Sunday. "Over the counter, it's all Falcons. Parlays/teasers also that way too."

Did see some sharp action Friday on Eagles +3 (-120), so Philly price now -130. MGM not eager at all to move off 3. That makes Atlanta -3 (+110).

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on TEN-NE


Very one-sided over the counter to the Patriots, who opened -13 and went to 13.5 Friday morning. Also heavy on NE teasers/parlays. MGM books lose to NE on mobile app betting too.

"We're gonna need the Titans to bust the teasers, so we're gonna need them to lose a close game."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on TEN-NE


"Over the counter, as expected, all New England money." Account money slightly favors Patriots. Line opens -13, now 13.5. Among NE wagers is a $50K bet at -13.

Among Titans wagers is one of $40,000 at +13.5 and $10,000 on Tennessee moneyline. Titans opened +700 on moneyline, now +650.

"This game has the largest handle" among the weekend's four matchups. CG also seeing sharp action on OVER. For now, "CGT needs Patriots to win, but not cover, and game to stay under the total."

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on TEN-NE


Contrary to CG, "As far as overall action, this game has the least interest." Opened Pats -13.5, spent most of week at 13, back to 13.5 this morning.

"The squares seem a bit hesitant to lay big spread, although the ones playing still are, but the minimal sharp interest has been on Tennessee."

On pointspread betting, "We’re fairly split as far as handle, with 55 percent of the money on New England.”

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... biggest need in today's NFL Divisional Round


"Philly and the under." Line opened Atlanta -1.5, reached 3 by Wednesday.

[New York Knight]

William Hill ... on ATL-PHI


Opened Falcons -2.5. Now 3, with Eagles priced at -120. "Sharps are on the Eagles, public is on the Falcons."

"Monster handle. Plenty of money. The handle on this game is gonna be amazing." Total dips from 44 to 40.5. "Sharps are all on the under" due to the cold weather.

[New York Knight]

William Hill ... on TEN-NE


Line Pats -13.5 all week. "We're gonna need the Titans, especially for the teasers and moneyline parlays." Divisional round has been good to teaser bettors.


On Divisional Round being good for teaser players ...

"When you've got 4 best teams, they all got byes, bettors don't think they could possible lose. This is a dangerous week, for sure."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology on teaser play for Divisional Round games


"Odds normally dictate amount of teaser play. Last week, there were multiple favorites in the -7.5 to -9.5 range, which always sparks extra teaser play."

"This week, there is also extra teaser play, because Patriots are -13, which can easily be teased to 7, and the Steelers are -7 or 7.5."

"Also, there has been some semi-sharp teaser action on Philly, teasing up to +8.5 or 9.

[New York Knight]

Trend of ticket brokers hedging in Las Vegas continues.

Boston broker has been going around different sports books betting Titans moneyline.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...



4 times as many bets, 4 times as much money on Atlanta

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Atlanta is biggest NFL liability for the day to the books but Pittsburgh is the biggest of the weekend as of now and it's not close.

Book will need JAX big tomorrow

[New York Knight]

Market Update


TIX-COUNT = FALCONS 2 to 1 ... OVER 2 to 1

$$$-BET = FALCONS 1.25 to 1 ... OVER 2.5 to 1


TEASERS = EAGLES+ PATRIOTS +STEELERS

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTcs6eDV4AA9F0E.jpg

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace ...


Falcons and Pats covering today would be "less than ideal"

73.6% of ATS money on the Patriots.