Monday 3-12-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 6

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 3:00P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SASSY CHIC 3341: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. DI MARIA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. STONE COLD LEADER: Horse's win percentage at t oday's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CORONA OHARA: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MIGHTY B GRATEFUL: Quarter Horse has a Fa st Break Style designation.
3
SASSY CHIC 3341
7/5

4/1
2
DI MARIA
6/1

6/1
6
CORONA OHARA
3/1

9/1
5
STONE COLD LEADER
6/1

9/1
1
MIGHTY B GRATEFUL
7/2

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
MIGHTY B GRATEFUL
1

7/2
Fast
84

78

3.5

0.0

0.0
2
DI MARIA
2

6/1
Fast
89

84

3.1

0.0

0.0
3
SASSY CHIC 3341
3

7/5
Average
92

91

4.6

0.0

0.0
4
RAGS TA CASH
4

12/1
Average
78

75

4.8

0.0

0.0
5
STONE COLD LEADER
5

6/1
Average
87

77

4.9

0.0

0.0
6
CORONA OHARA
6

3/1
Average
83

83

4.7

0.0

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 HAINES CITY (ML=5/1)


HAINES CITY - This speed freak is shortening up today. Should enhance her winning probability. Was in a Starter Allowance race at Presque Isle Downs in the last race. That event had an Equibase class figure of 91 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor. Don't discount that last race. The horse fired out with good speed, only to drop back and then hold ground to the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 BRIGHT N SHINE (ML=5/2), #10 SHARINA (ML=7/2), #6 MAYBE LILY (ML=9/2),

BRIGHT N SHINE - Can't make a habit of betting on horses that rarely win. Lower level horses have a difficult time coming back after two relentless stretch runs. Finished third in her most recent race with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. SHARINA - This runner ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's race running that rating. MAYBE LILY - Tough to bet on a thoroughbred that loses so frequently. Don't feel this pony will make an impact today. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HAINES CITY - My historical calculations say this mare comes back solid after an extended layoff and in good shape.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 HAINES CITY on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [6,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12800 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 OBVIOUS TWO 1/1

# 6 TRUE BLUE DIAMOND 15/1

# 9 LADY MARMADUKE 10/1

OBVIOUS TWO looks solid to best this field. Colon has a win percent of 24 over the last 30 days. The speed figure of 62 from her last race looks very good in here. She ought to be given consideration given the very good speed figs. TRUE BLUE DIAMOND - Should come out very solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. LADY MARMADUKE - Win percentage one of the most respectable in this group.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #11 - Post: 5:25pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 LUCKY LOU PAL (ML=6/1)
#10 NOBLE AND TRUE (ML=4/1)


LUCKY LOU PAL - Don't throw this horse out due to his last contest at Aqueduct where he ran seventh in the slop. Expect better today. This horse is in the top spot in earnings per start. He looks nice in today's race. NOBLE AND TRUE - A big drop in Equibase class figure points from his February 25th race at Aqueduct. Based on that element, I will give this horse the edge. Don't throw this horse out due to his last event at Aqueduct where he finished fifth on a sloppy track. Expect better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 TREE TOP LOVER (GB) (ML=5/2), #12 WIZARD OF ODDS (ML=8/1),

TREE TOP LOVER (GB) - I checked out this horse's past performances and he doesn't do well as the public's top choice and is likely to be favored today. Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to finish in the money though. WIZARD OF ODDS - Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race in a $7,500 Claiming race on Feb 3rd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 LUCKY LOU PAL is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[5,10] with [5,10] with [2,4,6,8,12] Total Cost: $10

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[5,10] with [5,10] with [4,8,12] with [2,4,6,8,12] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12, 2018 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 DEL MAR'S JOURNEY 10/1

# 4 Y O L O CAT 7/5

# 5 RUSHIN TO JUDGE 20/1

DEL MAR'S JOURNEY is the best wager in this contest especially at 10/1. Looks very good against this group of animals and will probably be one of the leaders. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turn around for this gelding. In the upper half of earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field of horses. Y O L O CAT - He has been running admirably and the Equibase speed figs are among the best in this group of animals. RUSHIN TO JUDGE - Gonzalez has one of the best rider ROI's on the grounds, returning to wagerers +62 percent.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 1

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) First Half of Daily Double


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $8,250 • Post: 12:55
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WHISKEY BIZ: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DUJAC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ARONEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAP TRICK: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6
WHISKEY BIZ
5/2

4/1
4
DUJAC
10/1

6/1
7
ARONEY
4/1

7/1
5
CAP TRICK
9/5

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
DUJAC
4

10/1
Front-runner
94

86

101.0

57.8

49.8
6
WHISKEY BIZ
6

5/2
Front-runner
95

87

88.6

61.2

57.7
5
CAP TRICK
5

9/5
Alternator/Stalker
88

85

70.8

79.6

74.1
3
COMIN' RIGHT UP
3

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
74

72

58.8

61.6

51.6
1
PURE CHROME
1

5/1
Trailer
84

71

73.3

74.7

65.2
7
ARONEY
7

4/1
Alternator/Trailer
91

79

52.0

78.2

72.2
2
BOTTOM LINE
2

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
92

97

7.6

7.6

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, March 12, 2018



3/12 05:05 PM PT / 8:05 PM ET

NBA (505) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (506) HOUSTON ROCKETS

Take: (506) HOUSTON ROCKETS

Reason: Your free play for Monday, March 12, 2018 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets. Your free play is on the ROCKETS.

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Mike Wynn

Free Play: Free Pick Sacramento +12½ Over Oklahoma City

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Jeff Allen Sports

Monday's Free Selection is on the Anaheim Ducks

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: Take MIAMI/PORTLAND OVER the total of 209

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Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection: Winnepeg/Washington over 6

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John Anthony Sports

Monday's Free Selection: Florida Panthers - 220

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Atlantic Sports

Monday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Philadelphia Flyers + 105

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#1 Sports

Monday's Free Selection: Anaheim Ducks - 170

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection Is

Miami Heat +7½

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Monday: Take Milwaukee/Memphis OVER the total of 207

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Milwaukee/Memphis over 207

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Hawkeye Sports

Monday's Free Pick: New York Rangers + 135

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Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Milwaukee/Memphis over 207

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Arthur Ralph Sports

FREE play: MON Under 5 /12 Columbus/Montreal NHL

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Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 3/12 CBB SAN DIEGO -9

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick the Miami/Portland Game Under 210½ Points

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Monday: Take SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON UNDER the total of 201½

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Monday: San Jose Sharks - 200

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Free Selection from Kenny Towers

Ov 5 Stl/Anh - NHL

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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor FREE Play for Monday, March 12, 2018

3/12 05:05 PM NBA (501) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS (502) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

take : Bucks

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Roz Wins

Roz's Monday March 12, 2018, Free Pick


3/12 07:35 PM NBA (507) MIAMI HEAT VS (508) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Take : Trailblazers

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Monster Sports Picks

MLB BOSTON RED SOX +105

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MVP Lock Club

NHL CAROLINA HURRICANES ‑140

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Picks 2 Play

NHL ANAHEIM DUCKS ‑160

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Pinnacle Sports Picks

NHL PHILADELPHIA FLYERS +110

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Power Play Wins

NHL WASHINGTON CAPITALS ‑125

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R and R Totals

NHL MONTRÉAL CANADIENS/COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS u5.5

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Team Underground

NHL ST. LOUIS BLUES +140

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Top Shelf Sports Pick

NHL ANAHEIM DUCKS ‑160

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Tys Terrific Tips

NCAA Basketball DRAKE BULLDOGS ‑8.5

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VIP Sports Picks Las Vegas

NCAA Basketball DRAKE BULLDOGS ‑8.5

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Wise Guy Insider

NHL ANAHEIM DUCKS ‑160

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NCAAB

Monday, March 12

Central Michigan was 9-2 in pre-conference games (schedule #340); Chippewas won three of last four games overall- they’re 4-10 vs teams ranked in top 200. Fort Wayne lost four of its last six games; they’re 7-6 in non-MAC games, and are also 4-10 vs teams in top 200. Last three years, MAC teams are 9-9 vs Summit League teams. CMU last played Thursday; Mastodons last played eight days ago.

Drake is #7 experience team in country that starts four seniors; they lost last three games, by 8-5-2 points. Bulldogs are 6-7 in non-conference games this year; they’re 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Drake hasn’t played in 10 days. Abilene Christian hasn’t played in nine days; they lost four of last five games, are 4-5 in non-league games. Wildcats are 0-8 this season vs teams ranked in top 200. ACU is #79 experience team- they turn ball over 20.3% of time.

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NCAAB

Monday, March 12

Trend Report

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ IPFW
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Central Michigan's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Central Michigan's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of IPFW's last 5 games

ABILENE CHRISTIAN @ DRAKE
Drake is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
Drake is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home


HARTFORD @ SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, March 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (19 - 14) at IUPU-FT WAYNE (18 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N CAROLINA A&T (20 - 14) at LIBERTY (20 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABILENE CHRISTIAN (16 - 15) at DRAKE (16 - 16) - 3/12/2018, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DRAKE is 1-0 straight up against ABILENE CHRISTIAN over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HARTFORD (19 - 13) at SAN DIEGO (18 - 13) - 3/12/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sportsbooks release opening pointspreads for first round of NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Tournament committee released the teams and matchups for the 2018 edition of March Madness on Sunday night. The show itself was greatly criticized for the format change and, as always, there was outrage over some of the selections. Through it all, sportsbooks were quick to react with opening pointspreads for all available opening round matchups.

Opening lines listed are from the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas:

First Four

16 LIU-Brooklyn
16 Radford -3.5

11 Arizona St.
11 Syracuse PICK

11 St. Bonaventure
11 UCLA -3

16 NC Central
16 Texas Southern -5

South Region

1 Virginia -22.5
16 UMBC

8 Creighton -1.5
9 Kansas St.

5 Kentucky -5.5
12 Davidson

4 Arizona -8
13 Buffalo

6 Miami -1
11 Loyola-Chicago

3 Tennessee -13.5
14 Wright St.

7 Nevada -1.5
10 Texas

2 Cincinnati -16
15 Georgia St.

West Region

1 Xavier
16 NCCU/TXSO

8 Missouri -1.5
9 Florida St.

5 Ohio St. -8.5
12 S. Dakota St.

4 Gonzaga -11.5
13 UNC-Greensboro

6 Houston -3.5
11 San Diego St.

3 Michigan -11
14 Montana

7 Texas A&M -4.5
10 Providence

2 North Carolina -17.5
15 Lipscomb

East Region

1 Villanova
16 LIU/RAD

8 Virginia Tech -2
9 Alabama

5 West Virginia -9.5
12 Murray State

4 Wichita St. -12
13 Marshall

6 Florida
11 STBON/UCLA

3 Texas Tech -12
14 Stephen F. Austin

7 Arkansas
10 Butler -1

2 Purdue -21
15 Cal St. Fullerton

Midwest Region

1 Kansas -15.5
16 Pennsylvania

8 Seton Hall
9 NC State PICK

5 Clemson -4.5
12 New Mexico St.

4 Auburn -11
13 Charleston

6 TCU
11 ASU/SYR

3 Michigan St. -13.5
14 Bucknell

7 Rhode Island
10 Oklahoma PICK

2 Duke -21
15 Iona

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Las Vegas oddsmaker provides some insight behind March Madness opening lines
Patrick Everson

The bracket is out, the games are on the betting board, so it’s time to take a closer look at the matchups. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a few interesting NCAA Tournament games, with insights from Matthew Holt, CEO of CG Analytics in Las Vegas.

No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 7 Rhode Island Rams (-1)

Many people felt Oklahoma had no business getting an at-large NCAA bid after losing eight of its last 10 games SU and ATS. The Sooners (18-13 SU, 10-20 ATS), one of the worst spread-covering teams in the nation, bowed out on the first day of the Big 12 Tournament, losing to Oklahoma State 71-60 as a 1-point favorite. But Lon Kruger’s squad apparently did enough early in the season to get in.

Rhode Island, meanwhile, was much steadier all year long, winning the Atlantic 10 regular-season title. The Rams (25-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) then advanced to the A10 Tourney final before falling to Davidson on Sunday, 58-57 as a 2.5-point favorite.

“Everyone’s talking about Oklahoma not deserving to get in. They’re a 1-point underdog to Rhode Island,” Holt said, explaining the reasoning for the Sooners being such a short pup. “There is gonna be some public support for Oklahoma, especially because of Trae Young. Arizona’s Deandre Ayton is the best player in college basketball. Young is the most famous player in college basketball.

“Also, the power ratings between these two teams are really close.”

On Sunday night, CG moved the line up a tick to Rhode Island -1.5 for this Thursday Midwest Region game.

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (-2)

Miami, of the mighty ACC, is certainly the more known quantity in this Thursday South Region contest. The Hurricanes (22-9 SU, 11-15 ATS) had a nice four-game run to cap the regular season, but fell to North Carolina in their ACC Tournament opener, 82-65 catching 6 points.

Loyola-Chicago is the pride of the Missouri Valley Conference, winning both the regular-season and tournament titles. The Ramblers (28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) have won 10 in a row and 17 of their last 18, going an impressive 14-4 ATS in that stretch. In the March 4 MVC final, Loyola dispatched Illinois State 65-49 laying 8.5 points.

“That line is gonna be fairly close. It’s a 6 vs. 11 matchup, but just a 2-point spread,” Holt said. “Loyola-Chicago being one of the sleeper teams people like, so that’s already built into the spread. The power rating shows Miami should be -4.5.”

No. 12 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (-6)

Kentucky was certainly erratic for a fair amount of the season, but played some great ball down the stretch, capped by winning the SEC Tournament on Sunday. The Wildcats (24-10 SU, 17-17 ATS) went 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, beating Tennessee in the SEC final 77-72 as a 2-point underdog.

Davidson was 10-9 through its first 19 games, then went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last 13, including a three-game run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament title. In Sunday’s final, Davidson (21-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) topped aforementioned Rhode Island 58-57 as a 2.5-point pup.

“Both these teams are red-hot, both teams playing their best basketball right now,” Holt said, noting the 6-point opening line – just a couple of 3-pointers -- shows respect for Davidson in this Thursday South Region meeting. “It’s a good game.”

No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 6 Houston Cougars (-3.5)

Houston flew a little under the radar in the American Athletic Conference, but could certainly be a team to watch over the first weekend of the NCAA Tourney in the West Region. The Cougars (26-7 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) went 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS over their last dozen games, narrowly falling to Cincinnati in Sunday’s AAC final, 56-55 as a 4.5-point ‘dog.

San Diego State had no shot at an at-large bid unless it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament – which it did. The Aztecs (22-10 SU, 20-10 ATS) pulled off three wins in three days, including a semifinal blowout of top-seeded Nevada, followed by an 82-75 victory over New Mexico as a 4-point chalk in Saturday’s title game.

“Houston-San Diego State is interesting because people have this love affair with the Aztecs,” Holt said of this Thursday West Region pairing. “In their power ratings, nobody is gonna have Houston as only 2 or 3 points better than San Diego State. The lowest I had this line in my power ratings was 4.25. But we’re gonna open at 3.5. The Aztecs are getting that positive momentum, playing well at the end of the year. They steamrolled through the Mountain West Tournament.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, March 12


Central Michigan @ IPFW

Game 509-510
March 12, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
52.842
IPFW
55.491
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
IPFW
by 2 1/2
167
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
IPFW
by 5
159
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+5); Over

Abilene Christian @ Drake

Game 511-512
March 12, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Abilene Christian
47.823
Drake
54.759
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Drake
by 7
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Drake
by 10
143
Dunkel Pick:
Abilene Christian
(+10); Over

NC A&T @ Liberty

Game 513-514
March 12, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC A&T
41.376
Liberty
56.747
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 15 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 11 1/2
140
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(-11 1/2); Under

Hartford @ San Diego

Game 515-516
March 12, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hartford
46.735
San Diego
58.624
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 12
133
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 9 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-9 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Monday, March 12

Home side won last eight Milwaukee-Memphis games; Bucks are 1-4 vs spread in last five trips to Memphis. Over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Milwaukee lost six of its last eight games; they’re 5-1 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Grizzlies lost their last 17 games; their last win was Jan 29. Memphis is 2-6 in last eight games as home dogs. Six of their last seven games stayed under.

Thunder won four of last five games with Sacramento; three of last four series games stayed under total. Kings are 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to OKC. Sacramento lost eight of their last 11 games; they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as road underdogs, 6-6 if they played night before. Four of their last five games stayed under. OKC won five of last seven games; they’re 6-9 in last 15 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Rockets/Spurs split their last eight games; San Antonio is 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this arena. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Spurs lost eight of their last 10 games; they’re 9-7 as road underdogs. Last three SA games stayed under total. Houston won 18 of its last 19 games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as home favorites. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total.

Portland won/covered its last four games with Miami; three of those games stayed under. Miami is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Portland. Heat won six of their last eight games; they’re 7-2 in last nine games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over. Portland won its last nine games; they’re 8-2 in last ten games as home favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Monday, March 12

Trend Report

MILWAUKEE @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games

SACRAMENTO @ OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Sacramento
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento

SAN ANTONIO @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games

MIAMI @ PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, March 12

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MILWAUKEE (35 - 31) at MEMPHIS (18 - 48) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 66-83 ATS (-25.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 368-448 ATS (-124.8 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 263-321 ATS (-90.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (21 - 46) at OKLAHOMA CITY (39 - 29) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-40 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (37 - 29) at HOUSTON (52 - 14) - 3/12/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 115-85 ATS (+21.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1036-909 ATS (+36.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 187-146 ATS (+26.4 Units) in March games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 32-45 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 8-8 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-6 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (36 - 31) at PORTLAND (40 - 26) - 3/12/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 84-62 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 12


Milwaukee @ Memphis

Game 501-502
March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
116.791
Memphis
104.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 12
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 6 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-6 1/2); Over

Sacramento @ Oklahoma City

Game 503-504
March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
109.233
Oklahoma City
123.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 14
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 12
210
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-12); Over

San Antonio @ Houston

Game 505-506
March 12, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
118.523
Houston
126.613
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 13
210
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+13); Under

Miami @ Portland

Game 507-508
March 12, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
115.412
Portland
126.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 11 1/2
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 7
211
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-7); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Betting Roadmap: Raptors primed to do some serious damage in playoffs
Al McMordie

Toronto has won its last eight games, and owns the third best record in the NBA at 49-17.

The Toronto Raptors served notice to the rest of the NBA when they defeated Houston on Friday to snap the Rockets' 17-game win streak. Toronto has won its last eight games, and owns the third best record in the NBA at 49-17. With just a month left in the season there are several open questions such as which team will own the best record and which Western Conference teams will be left out of the playoffs.

Let's take a look at the NBA's upcoming week.

Spread Watch

With apologies to the Houston Rockets, who have lost just once in their past 19 games, the Portland Trail Blazers are the hottest team in the NBA right now. Terry Stotts' crew is on a nine-game win streak - including a 17-point blowout of Golden State on Friday - which has catapulted them to the third seed in the Western Conference. For the season, Portland is 40-26, and is also 36-26-4 ATS.

The Blazers are even hot in Las Vegas, as they've covered their last six games, and are 16-5-1 ATS since January 18.

This week, Portland will finish its current five-game home stand with tilts against Miami, Cleveland and Detroit, before hitting the road on Sunday to take on the Los Angeles Clippers. Will Portland's hot streak continue? We certainly believe they have a heckuva chance to win their three home games, and especially like them in Monday's match-up vs. Miami. Portland has won and covered four straight in the series and, even better, falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 89-36 ATS since 1993. That angle plays on certain home teams off back-to-back blowout home wins, when playing an opponent also off a home win. Lay the points with Portland on Monday.

Total Watch

The Memphis Grizzlies have lost their last 17 games in a row, which is the league's longest losing streak since the 76ers opened up the 2015-16 season with 18 defeats. And it seems as if that's perfectly fine, as management no doubt wants to win the race to the bottom in order to have the best opportunity to snare the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery.

Indeed, Memphis chose to rest its best player, Marc Gasol, for the third time in nine games in Saturday's 114-80 loss at Dallas. Thus, Memphis is turning to guys like JaMychal Green, Ben McLemore and Dillon Brooks for offensive production. So, it's not surprising to find that the Grizz' offense failed to get more than 80 points in either of its two previous games. Memphis has now gone Under the total in six of its last seven games and, without significant offensive talent on the floor, will be an excellent candidate to look at to play the Under the rest of this season.

This week, Memphis will host Milwaukee, Chicago and Denver. We like the Monday game vs. the Bucks to go Under the total, as Milwaukee is also on a 15-6 Under run and these two teams have gone 9-4-1 Under the total in head-to-head matchups since 2011.

Injury Watch

The San Antonio Spurs are mired in their worst season since 1996-97. That year, David Robinson missed all but six games due to back and foot injuries. Similarly, this season, San Antone's best player, Kawhi Leonard, has only appeared in nine games due to a quadriceps injury.

The result is that the Spurs have struggled mightily when playing on the road, and also against the league's better teams. Indeed, San Antonio's streak of 20 consecutive winning seasons on the road (an NBA record) came to an end on Saturday when it lost its 21st road game at Oklahoma City. But if there was a silver lining in that loss to OKC, it came in the form of a report by ESPN's Lisa Salters during the TV broadcast that there is the possibility that Leonard will return to action this Thursday, when the Spurs will host the New Orleans Pelicans.

If Leonard is in the line-up, I would pull the trigger on San Antonio on Thursday, given that it will be playing with double revenge from two losses suffered earlier this season to the Pels and the Spurs are 19-9 ATS at home in the regular season when playing with double revenge.

Schedule Watch

This Saturday, the Phoenix Suns will host the Golden State Warriors. Normally, this would be a game which wouldn't excite many NBA bettors but I've had this game circled for four weeks - ever since the Warriors thrashed the Suns, 129-83, on February 12. I will always look at a team which lost to its opponent by 44+ points in the season's previous meeting, as those teams have covered the point spread 60% since 1990.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with 60%, but we can significantly improve our angle if we solely focus on going against opponents that aren't succeeding against the point spread in the current season. If we just fade teams whose ATS win percentage isn't .489 or higher then our angle zooms to a perfect 12-0 ATS since 1990. And that's the situation on Saturday, as Golden State is an awful 28-39 ATS on the season, including 0-6 ATS its last six. Take Phoenix plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS WIN


Milwaukee Bucks -8