March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...


Most bets to win tournament ...

1. Arizona
2. Michigan St
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. North Carolina


Top 5 teams by money wagered to win tournament ...

1. Michigan St
2. Arizona
3. Duke
4. Villanova
5. Kansas

[New York Knight]

Only coaches in this year's field to cover 70%+ of their NCAA Tournament games:

75%: Chris Mack
71.4%: John Beilein

(Since 2005, min. 10 games)

[New York Knight]

History Of NCAA Tournament First Four Games


Since the 2011 season, the NCAA has hosted the First Four – a collection of four games featuring the four lowest-ranked at-large teams and the four lowest-ranked automatic bid teams. These four games determine which teams will move forward into the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament.

These four games almost always take place at the University of Dayton Arena and happen earlier than the traditional NCAA Tournament contests – taking place on the Tuesday and Wednesday before the full slate of tourney games start on Thursday.

Though you may initially overlook teams in the First Four, in each year since 2011 at least one of these advancing programs has won a Round of 64 game following the play-ins. Most notably, the VCU Rams fought all the way from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011 before ultimately falling on the final weekend of the tournament.

Since the inception of the First Four, only four programs have appeared in the games more than once. Those four teams (USC, BYU, Boise State and Mount St. Mary’s) are a combined 3-5 with none of them posting a winning record in the play-in games.

The First Four has been a potential minefield for bettors, with favorites going a combined 15-13 SU and 11-16-1 ATS. Totals have taken the slightest lean toward the UNDER, with games failing to top the total in 15 of 28 contests.


History Of First Four Games


Year / Seeding / Winning Team / Losing Team / Final Score / How Far Did Winner Go?


2011 / 16 / UTSA / Alabama State / 70-61 / Round of 64

2011 / 16 / UNC-Asheville / Arkansas-Little Rock / 81-77 / Round of 64

2011 / 12 / Clemson / UAB / 70-52 / Round of 64

2011 / 11 / VCU / USC / 59-46 / Final Four

2012 / 16 / Western Kentucky / Mississippi Valley State / 59-58 / Round of 64

2012 / 16 / Vermont / Lamar / 71-59 / Round of 64

2012 / 14 / BYU / Iona / 78-72 / Round of 64

2012 / 12 / USF / California / 65-54 / Round of 32

2013 / 16 / North Carolina A&T / Liberty / 73-72 / Round of 64

2013 / 16 / James Madison / Long Island / 68-55 / Round of 64

2013 / 13 / La Salle / Boise State / 80-71 / Sweet 16

2013 / 11 / Saint Mary’s / Middle Tennessee / 67-54 / Round of 64

2014 / 16 / Albany / Mount St. Mary’s / 71-64 / Round of 64

2014 / 16 / Cal Poly / Texas Southern / 81-69 / Round of 64

2014 / 12 / NC State / Xavier / 74-59 / Round of 64

2014 / 11 / Tennessee / Iowa / 78-65 / Sweet 16

2015 / 16 / Hampton / Manhattan / 74-64 / Round of 64

2015 / 16 / Robert Morris / North Florida / 81-77 / Round of 64

2015 / 11 / Ole Miss / BYU / 94-90 / Round of 64

2015 / 11 / Dayton / Boise State / 56-55 / Round of 32

2016 / 16 / Florida Gulf Coast / Fairleigh Dickinson / 96-65 / Round of 64

2016 / 16 / Holy Cross / Southern / 59-55 / Round of 64

2016 / 11 / Wichita State / Vanderbilt / 70-50 / Round of 32

2016 / 11 / Michigan / Tulsa / 67-62 / Round of 64

2017 / 16 / Mount St. Mary’s / New Orleans / 67-66 / Round of 64

2017 / 16 / UC Davis / North Carolina Central / 67-63 / Round of 64

2017 / 11 / Kansas State / Wake Forest / 95-88 / Round of 64

2017 / 11 / USC / Providence / 75-71 / Round of 32

[New York Knight]

Since 1997, there's been 12 instances of #2 seeds who’ve won 6 or fewer of their last 10 games coming into the tourney ... 9 of them have lost in the 2nd round


#2 Purdue is 6-4 in their last 10 games.

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...


Villanova 7/2
Duke 5/1
Virginia 6/1
Michigan St 6/1
Michigan 10/1
Purdue 12/1
Arizona 15/1
Kansas 18/1
North Carolina 18/1
Xavier 20/1
Cincinnati 20/1
Kentucky 25/1
Gonzaga 25/1
West Virginia 40/1
Texas Tech 40/1
Wichita St 40/1

[New York Knight]

Duke is making its 23rd consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, the second-longest active streak behind Kansas (29).

All five of Duke's national titles have come as either a 1 or 2 seed.

[New York Knight]

Butler (pk) vs Arkansas in Round of 64

Bulldogs in NCAA Tournament since 2005 ...

vs SEC: 2-2 ATS
vs All others: 19-3-1 ATS

[New York Knight]

Syracuse is currently -1.5 vs. Arizona State.

Jim Boeheim is 5-1 ATS when favored in the month of March over the past 3 seasons.

[New York Knight]

Largest posted spreads:

Virginia (-22.5) vs. UMBC
Purdue (-20.5) vs. CS Fullerton
Duke (-19.5) vs. Iona
UNC (-18) vs. Lipscomb


Since 2005, teams favored by 20 or more points in the NCAA Tournament are 22-29 (43.1%) ATS.

[New York Knight]

Kansas has been a #1 seed under Bill Self 7 times.

The Jayhawks have reached the Final Four once in those 7 years.

[New York Knight]

Useless fact ...

Houston hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since the 1984 Final Four. 180 teams have won a game in the Round of 64 or later since Houston last won a Tourney game 34 years ago.

[New York Knight]

Kentucky (-6) vs. Davidson

Under Coach Cal, UK is 12-6-3 ATS (66.7%) in the NCAA Tournament when favored by less than 10 points (or as an underdog)

[New York Knight]

The last 6 times Cincinnati has been a top-four seed, the Bearcats didn't make it out of the 2nd round (3 of those times came as a 1 or 2 seed)

[New York Knight]

Kansas is 18-1 and Xavier is 20-1 to win the NCAA tournament as No. 1 seeds.

Here's a list of other non-1-seeds that have the same or better odds:

Duke 5-1
Michigan State 6-1
Michigan 10-1
Purdue 12-1
Arizona 15-1
UNC 18-1
Cincy 20-1

[New York Knight]

91% of tourney winners since 1993 have been a top 3 seed.

50% of teams to play in the championship game since 2001 were conference tourney winners.

Cincy / Virginia / Villanova / Kansas / Michigan match each criteria.

[New York Knight]

Arizona (-8.5) vs. Buffalo

Sean Miller in the NCAA Tournament …

at Xavier: 8-1-1 ATS
at Arizona: 9-9-1 ATS (3-8-1 since 2014 Tournament)

[New York Knight]

The ACC is the worst bet in the NCAA tournament among the major conferences since 1996 (45.3%). Only 2 ACC teams are dogs in their first games this year

FSU +1.5 v Mizz
NC St +2 v Seton Hall

[New York Knight]

William Hill ...


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[New York Knight]

Potential payouts on title winners at William Hill ...


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[New York Knight]

Action Network

Most likely NCAA tourney winners (10,000 sims)

UVA 18.9%
Nova 17.1%
Duke 11.6%
Cincy 8.5%
Purdue 6.2%
Mich St 6.1%
UNC 5.4%

[New York Knight]

Xavier is the best bet in the NCAA tournament in the odds shark database ... 76.5% since 1996


Straight Up: 21-15

Against The Spread: 26-8-2

OVER/UNDER: 18-18

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook took 5 bets on Virginia when the Cavaliers were 100/1 to win the national championship in the preseason.

[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

Derek Stevens ... Owner of The D Casino in Vegas


At South Point he placed $11,000 EACH on ...

Radford -3
NC Central +6
SD State +4
Loyola +2.5
Arizona -8
Alabama +2.5
Davidson +5.5
K State +2.5
Purdue -20
Duke -19
Virginia -22
Butler -1
Missouri pk
Syracuse +1
Cincy -15.5
Mich St -13
Lipscomb +19.5
NC St +2
Murray St +10


At Golden Nugget he placed $11,000 EACH on ...

UCLA -3.5
Michigan -11
Wright St +13.5
Providence +4
Stephen FA +11
Penn +15
Gonzaga -12
Arizona -8
S Dakota +8
Texas +1.5
Rhode Island pk
Loyola +2.5
Clemson -4.5
Marshall +12
Kentucky -5.5
Charleston +10.5

[New York Knight]

Nevada Gaming Control ...

Nevada sportsbooks won $41.27 million on basketball (NBA/NCAA) in March 2017, the most lucrative basketball month ever for the books

[New York Knight]

Among the seeds that have reached the Final Four at least once, no seed is experiencing a bigger drought than the No. 6. Only three 6-seeds have made it to the Final Four, but it has been 26 years since the last time it happened (Providence in 1987, Kansas in 1988 and Michigan in 1992).


From 1985 to 2013, neither a No. 7 nor a No. 10 seed made a Final Four appearance. But in the past four tournaments, we've seen three 7s (UConn in 2014, Michigan State in 2015 and South Carolina in 2017) and a 10 (Syracuse in 2016) get there. UConn became the first No. 7 seed to win the title, while Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four.


Since 1979, six No. 8 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Those teams are actually 4-2 in the national semifinals, but the lone 8-seed to win the title is Villanova in 1985.


Since 1985, three No. 11 seeds have reached the Final Four (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011), which is as many as or more than Nos. 6, 7, 9 and 10 seeds.

[New York Knight]

• No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Last year, six teams that landed top-four seeds -- including Kansas (1) and Louisville (2) -- were bounced right off in the bat in their conference tourney, and none of them advanced past the Elite Eight. This year, Auburn is the only top-four seed that needs to be concerned about this curse. Ohio State (5), Florida (6), Miami (6) and TCU (6) are the only others better than a No. 7.

• Upsets may grab the headlines this month, but when it comes to winning championships, you have to look out for No. 1. In the 33 years since the field expanded, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 20 championships, including eight of the past 11. No other seed has more than five titles, and the top three seeds have combined for 29 of the 33 championships.

• We're still waiting for the first No. 5-seeded champion, although three 5-seeds have reached the championship game (Florida in 2000, Indiana in 2002 and Butler in 2010). There have been teams seeded sixth (NC State, 1983; Kansas, 1988), seventh (UConn, 2014) and eighth (Villanova, 1985) to win it all, however.

[New York Knight]

Records for seeds since the tourney went to 64 or more teams.

#1-#16 (132-0, 100%)
#2-#15 (124-8, 93.9%)
#3-#14 (111-21, 84.1%)
#4-#13 (106-26, 80.3%)
#5-#12 (85-47, 64.4% )
#6-#11 (83-49, 62.9%)
#7-#10 (81-51, 61.4%)
#8-#9 (68-64, 51.5% )

[New York Knight]

Virginia has been picked as the National Champion in 27% of brackets filled out at ESPN so far.

You should be looking to fade the public if you're in a larger bracket pool.

[New York Knight]

Since 2009, teams favored by 6 points or more in the 1st round won 88% of games.


There’s currently 17 games with spreads of 6 or more.

[New York Knight]

10,000 NCAA Tournament Simulations Reveal Most Likely Champions


After 10,000 simulations, Virginia is the most likely champion. Tony Bennett’s team has a 44.1% chance to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1984 and wins the national championship 18.9% of the time.

The other contenders with legitimate chances of winning are Villanova (17.1%), Duke (11.6%), Cincinnati (8.5%), Purdue (6.2%), Michigan State (6.1%) and North Carolina (5.4%).

The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Virginia, No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke and No. 2 North Carolina. The Wildcats, Blue Devils and Tar Heels have all reached the final weekend at least once in the last three tournaments, with UNC trying for a third consecutive Final Four.

The tournament is projected to be chalky. The 13 most likely Final Four participants are seeded 1-4, with those seeded 1-2 wining it all 73.8% of the time.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be upsets. In the play-in games and first round, there are 10 games in which the higher-seeded team wins 60% of the time or less, making for potential upsets.


South Region

Virginia, led by Kyle Guy and Devon Hall (pictured above), is a No. 1 seed for the third time in five years. The Cavaliers earned the top overall seed by playing the best defense in the country (53.4 ppg allowed). However, UVA isn’t the only team in this region that brings it on that end of the court. Cincinnati, Tennessee and Texas also rank in the top 10 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Virginia (44.1%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky (6.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Loyola Chicago (18.4% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Nevada over No. 10 Texas (50.0%)



West Region

Xavier is the weakest No. 1 seed in the bracket, ranking 14th overall according to KenPom. The Musketeers got a tough draw with North Carolina, Gonzaga and Michigan ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency. The West is wide open, with these four teams each having double-digit percentage chances to win the region.

•Most Likely Final Four team: North Carolina (25.3%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Ohio State (8.7%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): San Diego State (12.2% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 8 Missouri over No. 9 Florida State (50.0%)



East Region

The simulation likes Virginia, but the oddsmakers favor Villanova. The Wildcats are 7-2 favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. What do the Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s like about Jay Wright’s team? Few teams in the tournament can match the potential NBA talent that Nova boasts in Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (44.9%)
•Final Four Sleeper: West Virginia (8.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Butler (16.8% to make Sweet 16)
•Closes First-Round Game: No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas (53.1%)



Midwest Region

The blue bloods of college basketball (Kansas, Duke and Michigan State) will battle it out in the Midwest. The Jayhawks (Devonte’ Graham), Blue Devils (Marvin Bagley) and Spartans (Miles Bridges) are led by Wooden Award candidates, meaning each team has enough talent to not only win the region, but to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Duke (36.0%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Clemson (5.8%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): New Mexico State (13.3% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Rhode Island over No. 10 Oklahoma (50.0%)


Most likely Sweet 16 teams:

Nova 85%
Duke 83%
UVA 82%
UNC 73%
Purdue 72%

[New York Knight]

Butler is the second-best NCAA tourney bet in the database (since 1999).


SU: 21-12

ATS: 25-8 (75.8%)

O/U: 13-19-1

[New York Knight]

Here's how the No. 1 seeds have fared against the spread since 1999 in the NCAA tournament:


Kansas: 36-27-1

Villanova: 17-16

Virginia: 5-9-1

Xavier: 26-8-2

[New York Knight]

Only coaches in this year's field to cover less than 33% of their NCAA Tournament games:

31.6%: Rick Barnes
31.6%: Jamie Dixon

(Since 2005, min. 10 games)

[New York Knight]

Why Bettors Should Avoid Trendy NCAA Tournament Underdogs


With the NCAA Tournament field set, many folks likely have upsets pegged before even looking at the actual matchups. Perhaps they think they’re being original for their choices. The 12 over the 5-seed…some 10s over 7s. Your basic upsets, you know the drill.

However, when betting on spreads, you need to be very wary as far as trendy dogs are concerned. When you see a dog as cool as Scooby Doo, you may want to tread lightly…

More often than not, they’re going to disappoint more than socks on a Christmas morn.

By now, you should probably know that betting against the public is a wise choice. Especially in the NCAA Tournament, when square bettors instinctively flock to sportsbooks like the Salmon of Capistrano.

Generally speaking, the public gets down heavy on favorites. This is why you’ll often find contrarian value on the dog, but that is not always the case.

Dating back to 2005, the team getting the majority of the bets has been the favorite at close to a 3:1 ratio. Basically a quarter of the time, you’ll see a trendy dog available. Anddddd….they’ve been god awful.


Underdogs receiving the majority of bets have only covered 43.1% of the time. The first week is even worse, with trendy dogs in the First Four, round of 64, and round of 32 only covering 40.4% of the time.

One of the only instances in which they haven’t done horribly is as a double-digit dog. Trendy dogs getting 10 points or more have gone 16-15, meaning those getting 9.5 points or less have only covered at a 41.6% rate.

As of Monday morning there are 10 dogs getting at least 51% of bets and six getting at least two-thirds of spread bets. The four dogs getting between 51% and 57% (Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, and LIU Brooklyn) will probably be getting the minority of bets by the time the games start.


The other six trendy dogs have a very good chance of staying trendy, though.

•#10 Providence (84%, +3.5) vs. #7 Texas A&M
•#13 Charleston (81%, +10.5) vs. #4 Auburn
•#12 South Dakota State (74%, +8) vs. #5 Ohio State
•#13 Marshall (74%, +12) vs. #4 Wichita State
•#15 Georgia State (73%, +14) vs. #2 Cincinnati
•#12 New Mexico State (68%, +5) vs. #5 Clemson


Fade or follow? Maybe they’re worth a shot on your bracket, but be like the wading baboon and tread lightly if you’re thinking about betting them.

[New York Knight]

Monday Money Burner ...


William Hill has already taken 3 bets on #16-seed North Carolina Central to win the tournament at 2,500/1 odds.

[New York Knight]

Monday Fun Facts ...


-An estimated 24 million people participated in an NCAA tournament pool in 2017, filling out 60 million brackets, according to a recent survey conducted by The Mellman Group

-March Madness pools, when money is involved, are illegal in 37 of 50 states, according to a legal analysis commissioned by the American Gaming Assn.

-The American Gaming Assn estimates more than $10 billion will be wagered on the NCAA tournament this year, with only 3% taking place in a legal environment.

[New York Knight]

Why Is Contrarian Betting so Profitable During the NCAA Tournament?


The NCAA Tournament, like the Super Bowl, ropes in even the most casual of bettors. With bracket pools, early tip-offs and a slew of games to choose from, it’s a natural time for those who don’t normally bet to get back in the game.

Of course, an influx of recreational money gives contrarian bettors plenty of opportunity to find value. In general, many March Madness bettors only follow college basketball for the NCAA Tournament. As a result, they’re largely uneducated regarding current players and teams, and often overvalue favorites, higher-seeded squads, and trendy Cinderella teams.

Because oddsmakers understand the teams and situations that will attract public money, they react by shading lines to force these bettors to take worse numbers. For example, a blue-blood program like Duke is likely to be a popular wager among uneducated bettors simply because of the program’s history and mainstream name recognition. Power ratings may suggest that Duke should be a 10-point favorite in a specific matchup and oddsmakers will instead open the Blue Devils at -12, knowing that recreational players will bet on Duke, no matter the number. That’s two free points of value for a contrarian bettor looking to fade Duke at +12.

So which games should bettors target during the NCAA Tournament?

According to Bet Labs database, contrarian value begins to appear when a side is receiving 40% or fewer of total spread tickets.


Betting on teams that received the majority of public action (more than 50% of tickets wagered) has been a losing proposition since 2005, resulting in a loss of 63.90 units. (A unit is simply a bettor’s normal wager size. For example, a $100 bettor would have lost $6,390 (-63.90 x $100) betting those games.)

On the other hand, value increases the more lopsided a game gets, highlighted by an ATS win rate of 54.2% and profit of more than 24 units when the percentage of tickets wagered dips to 40% and below.

[New York Knight]

There are currently 13 double-digit spreads for the Thurs/Fri games of the NCAA tourney.

The most in Odds Shark database since 1996 is 16 (1996 & 2000) ... The fewest is 8 (2006 & 2012)

[New York Knight]

How underdogs perform in the first round


Last Year:

4-26 SU
15-14-1 ATS


In the 30-Second Shot Clock Era:

12-49 SU
30-30-1 ATS


Since 1996:

158-466 SU
312-303-9 ATS

[New York Knight]

Virginia has the best record against the spread (21-8-1) of any major-conference team in the field.

[New York Knight]

Most bets to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Michigan State
2. Kansas
3. Villanova
4. Duke
5. Kentucky


Most money wagered to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Villanova
4. Kansas
5. Arizona

[New York Knight]

The only game in the opening round that had seen a 2-point line-movement at the South Point was the First Four clash between Texas Southern and North Carolina Central. Texas Southern opened as a 6-point favorite, but quickly was bet down to -4.

"Big money, limit bets from guys who seemed like they knew what they were doing" caused the move, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

[New York Knight]

Michigan is the worst-case scenario for the South Point sportsbook.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews ...

"It's a team that got hot at the end of the year and have a really good coach"

"I think they definitely have a chance to win it all."

[New York Knight]

MGM took multiple bets on Gonzaga on Sunday night, shortly after updating the odds to win the tournament.

Couple bets to win six figures [on Gonzaga at 30-1]

[New York Knight]

Prop bet at MGM ...

Will any No. 1 seed be behind or tied with a No. 16 seed at halftime?

Yes +400 / No -600


The early money was on "Yes."

[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

In the 7/10 and 8/9 games, the team with the better regular season record is 45-19 SU (70.3%) the last 8 years.

[New York Knight]

In Wichita State's last 9 tourney games, the underdog is 7-1 ATS with 4 outright wins.

Shockers are 0-5 ATS with 3 outright losses in their last 5 games in the R64 or later as a favorite.

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Which 2-seed will get knocked off this weekend?

Only once in the last 21 years - and only 4 times since field expanded in 1985 - have all four 2-seeds reached the Sweet 16.

[New York Knight]

Dogs are 11-3-2 ATS in UK last 16 tourney games with 6 outright wins.

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11-seed Loyola just a 2.5-point to 6-seed Miami.

Missouri Valley teams are 8-0 in the Round of 64 over the last 5 years with 4 of the 8 wins coming as a lower seed.

[New York Knight]

Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com ...



No. 15 Iona Gaels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils – Open: -20; Move: -19

Perennial championship contender Duke is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run over its last nine games, though it bowed out in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. A week after beating North Carolina in the regular-season finale, the Blue Devils (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS) tumbled to the Tar Heels 74-69 as a 4-point favorite Friday night.

Iona was the No. 4 seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but made a three-game run through the conference tourney to claim the automatic NCAA bid. The Gaels (20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS) capped their run with an 83-71 victory over Fairfield as a 2.5-point chalk on March 5.

Early sharp play was on the heavy underdog, taking the number down a point for this Thursday matchup.

“I’m rooting against the joint. They bet Iona, and that’s who I’m rooting for,” Kaminsky said. “I want Iona to win outright, because the school is in New Rochelle, N.Y., where ‘The Dick Van Dyke Show’ was set. That was one of my favorite TV shows when I was a kid.”



No. 16 Pennsylvania Quakers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -15; Move: -14

Like Duke, Kansas is another team that’s always a high seed with a chance to make a March run. The Jayhawks (27-7 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) won and cashed in all three of their Big 12 Tournament games last weekend, dropping West Virginia 81-70 in Saturday’s final as a 1.5-point underdog.

Penn shared the Ivy League’s regular-season crown, then got the title that really mattered in the league tournament. The Quakers (24-8 SU, 13-14 ATS) entered the Ivy final as a 2.5-point favorite against Harvard, fell behind by 13 in the first half, but quickly rallied to go up 13 in the second half and hang on for a 68-65 win.

“They took Penn, which has been the best team in the Ivy League all year. Every Friday and Saturday, every square bettor was taking Penn,” Kaminsky said, while noting in the case of this Thursday meeting, it was wiseguy money on the Quakers. “They took the 15, we’re down to 14 against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.”



No. 14 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -12; Move: -11

Michigan is arguably the hottest team heading into the Big Dance and will have had 10 days off before this Thursday game tips. The Wolverines (28-7 SU, 22-11-1 ATS) are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS spree, including a perfect four-game run through the Big Ten Tournament, where they topped Purdue 75-66 catching 4 points in the March 4 final.

Montana is the toast of the Big Sky Conference, as both the regular-season and tournament champ. The Grizzlies (26-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS) needed overtime to beat Northern Colorado in the Big Sky semis, but rolled over Eastern Washington in the final, 82-65 giving 4.5 points Saturday.

Kaminsky said one bettor whom he described as “semi-sharp” helped move this number down a point.

“The guy who bet it used to live in Mexico, and now he’s in Bogota, Colombia,” Kaminsky said. “He took the ‘dog +12, and we went to 11.”



No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -10.5; Move: -9.5

West Virginia was so good this season that it was in position to beat Kansas three times – but lost all three. The Mountaineers (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) got their latest shot at the Jayhawks in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament final, and even went off as a 1.5-point favorite in Kansas City, but fell 81-70.

Murray State claimed the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, and hasn’t lost in nearly two months. The Racers (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) are on a 13-game SU roll (8-5 ATS), breezing by Belmont 68-51 as a 1.5-point underdog in the OVC title game on March 3.

“They took +10.5 down to +9.5. That’s sharp money,” Kaminsky said of early action on the underdog Racers.

[New York Knight]

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[New York Knight]

ALL ROUNDS:

*Kansas- 19-2 SU, 15-5-1 ATS vs opp off dog W

*MSU- 26-6 SU, 22-9-1 ATS vs opp off ATS W of 5 or more

*Amer East Conf- 7-15 UNDER (avg 59ppg) -

*Big Sky - 0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS (avg loss 20ppg) -

*Big South- 7-14 UNDER (avg 59ppg) -

*CAA - 26-8 ATS

*OVC - 12-5 ATS

*Southern - 13-6 ATS

*Summitt - 5-12 ATS

*WAC - 2-18 SU, 6-14 ATS

PAC 12 - Favs 70-23 SU
- Dogs 17-35 SU
- Favs of 7> are 10-19 UNDER
- Vs "B" or worse - 42-8 SU, 39-19 ATS

BIG 12 - Favs 7-13.5 - 46-7 SU, 35-17 ATS
- Big 12 vs Big East - Fav is 17-3 SU, 15-5 ATS
- Big 12 vs Big 10 - Fav is 23-3 SU, 20-6 ATS

BIG 10 - Dogs 5< - 41-30 SU, 45-24-2 ATS
- Favs 6> - 66-6 SU, 41-25 ATS
- Big 10 vs SEC - Dogs are 17-16 SU, 23-9-1 ATS

SEC - Dogs 5.5> - 4-22 SU
- Dogs of 5< - 32-15 ATS

MWC - 6-23 SU, 7-22 ATS vs Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Big East

ALL CONF - "A" vs "D" - 87-8 SU, 58-33 ATS
- Better Seed "B" vs "A" - 26-12 OVER
- "B" vs "B"- Better Seed is 13-4 SU, 13-3-1 ATS
- "B" Favs vs "A"- 39-21 OVER

"A"- ACC, B10, B12, Big East, P12, SEC, AAC
"B" - MWC, MAC, A-10, MVC
"C" - HOR, IVY, CAA, WAC, WCC, CUSA, Big West, Big Sky, OVC,SBELT, Summit
"D" - A.East, A.Sun, N.East, PAT, SWAC, B.South, MEAC, MAAC, Southern, Southland

[New York Knight]

Round 1:


#1 seeds off BB W, favs of 25<pts are 20-11 ATS
#3 seeds off SU fav Loss are 42-1 SU, 30-12-1 ATS
#3 off BB Wins are 9-17 ATS
#4 seeds are 28-14 ATS as favs of 9< pts
#4 seeds off SU Loss are 46-25 ATS

Conf Tourney Champs in Rd 1:

Big East- 8-16 ATS, Big West- 3-10 ATS, Colonial- 17-6 ATS, WAC- 6-12 ATS

BEST SU Records in Rd 1:

Kenty- 23-1 SU, Conn- 18-2 SU, Purdue- 15-2 SU, Zags- 13-1 SU, NC- 23-1 SU, Duke- 16-3 SU, GTown- 11-4 SU, Wisky- 13-2 SU, Kan- 25-2 SU, Mary 12-1 SU, Cincy- 16-4 SU


BEST ATS Record in Rd 1:

Butler- 11-1 ATS, Ind- 7-2 ATS, Kent St- 4-1 ATS, GTown- 10-4 ATS, Pur- 11-3 ATS, UCLA- 9-4 ATS, Miss St- 5-2 ATS, Xav 10-1 ATS, A+M 6-1 ATS

WORST ATS Record in Rd 1:

Marq- 3-9 ATS, Ark- 2-5 ATS, Zags- 4-8 ATS, Conn- 5-10 ATS, Clem 0-5 ATS, Tenn 2-10 ATS

BEST Conf ATS Records in Rd 1:

Horizon- 12-7 ATS, MVC- 20-9 ATS, Colonial- 15-5 ATS

**ACC is 66-20 SU L10 yrs in Rd 1

**MWC is 11-22 SU L13 yrs in Rd 1

[New York Knight]

ROUND 2:


#1 seeds are 2-15 ATS off 3+ su,ats Wins
#1 seed favs of 8.5< pts vs opp off SU Dog Win are 16-2 SU, 13-5 ATS
#7 seed dogs of 3>pts are 21-31 ATS (6-16 ATS vs opp off BB W)
#9 seed dogs off SU Dog Win are 8-18 ATS
#10 seeds are 20-9 ATS
#13 or worse seeds are 7-37 SU, 11-31 ATS

BEST SU Records in Rd 2:

Duke- 15-2 SU, UCLA- 12-2 SU, Mich St- 13-2 SU, Ari- 10-1 SU

WORST SU Records in Rd 2:

Miss St- 0-4 SU

BEST ATS Record in Rd 2:

Kan- 13-4 ATS, Vandy- 3-1 ATS, Pur- 9-2 ATS, Louis- 10-3 ATS, Ari- 10-1 ATS,

WORST ATS Record in Rd 2:

Stan- 1-7 ATS

BEST Conf ATS Records in Rd 2:

Pac 10- 16-2 ATS vs opp off BB su,ats Wins
SEC- 16-6 ATS as dogs 2> pts
Big East is 18-9 ATS as dogs
Big 12 is 39-25 ATS
MVC is 9-0 ATS as dogs of 7<

WORST Conf ATS Records in Rd 2:

Big West- 0-5 ATS
Big East- 15-25 ATS Favs
ACC- 12-26 ATS as favs 10<
WAC is 1-5 ATS as DD Dogs
CUSA- 5-18 ATS off su,ats W
CAA is 0-9 SU in Rd 2

[New York Knight]

SWEET 16:


#1 seeds off BB su,ats W are 21-7 ATS
#2 seeds are 16-7 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
#4 seeds are 3-10 ATS as dogs vs opp off BB su,ats Wins
#6 seeds are 2-9 ATS off DD ATS Win
#10 or worse are 6-26 SU, 14-18 ATS

** Favs of 6> pts are 43-3 SU, 27-19 ATS if this is 2nd yr in a row in the Sweet 16

** Sweet 16 returnees as #1 or #2 seed are 58-15 SU, if they scored 75>pts in last gm they are 37-6 SU and if off DD Win they are 30-3 SU, 22-11 ATS

**Favs of 9> pts are 22-12 ATS vs opp off BB su,ats Wins

**Dogs of 11> pts are 8-22 ATS

**Dogs off BB ATS Loss are 10-4 ATS


BEST/WORST ATS in Sweet 16:

Mem- 5-1 ATS, MSU- 8-3 SU,ATS, Louis- 7-2 ATS, Pitt- 0-5 ATS, UCLA- 1-9 ATS, GTown- 1-4 ATS, Kan- 6-10 ATS, Xav 6-0 ATS, Kenty 15-3 ATS, Wash 0-4 SU, Syr 2-6 ATS,

CONF trends in Sweet 16:

Big East- 8-16 ATS favs, CUSA- 4-1 ATS Favs, Pac 10- 4-10 ATS dogs, Big 10- 24-19 ATS, SEC- 15-3 ATS dogs, A10- 8-4 ATS vs opp off ATS W, A-10- 7-2 ATS

**Totals 128 or less are 5-14 UNDER

**Lesser Seed is 8-4 SU,ATS w/#6 or worse facing eachother


ELITE 8:

#1 seeds are 12-25 ATS
#4 seeds are 12-4 SU, 11-4-1 ATS
#5 seeds are 6-1 SU,ATS
#6 seeds are 0-8 SU
#7 seeds are 3-6 SU
#8 seeds are 5-1 ATS
#4 or worse vs better seed- 28-9 ATS

**Teams off BB ATS Loss are 7-3 ATS
**Favs off BB DD Wins are 6-17 ATS
**Lower Seed vs higher Seed- 51-26 ATS
**Favs 3< the lower seed is 25-7 SU, 24-8 ATS and 16-4 SU,ATS as dogs
**Favs 8> are 14-4 SU, 5-12 ATS
**Totals of 144.5< are 36-13 OVER

CONF Trends for Elite 8:

A10- 5-1 ATS, Pac 10- 7-4 ATS off DD Win, Big 10- 9-2 ATS off DD Win, Big East- 3-6 ATS off dog Win, Big 12- 3-12 ATS, CUSA- 1-4 ATS

[New York Knight]

Final 4:


*#2 seed off DD ATS W is 2-9 ATS
*ACC is 7-3 ATS
*Big East is 2-6 ATS
*Team w/better win % is 15-7 ATS
*Favs 3-7.5pts - 19-8 SU, 18-9 ATS
*#4 or worse is 3-15 SU, 4-12 ATS
*Unequal seeds - Better seed is 27-10 SU, 24-11-2 ATS

[New York Knight]

Championship:


*Favs 5< are 12-4 ATS
*#2 is 1-6 ATS off ATS W
*Teams w/ win % of .810< are 0-4 ATS
*Big 10 is 1-8 ATS

[New York Knight]

Does Villanova have the easiest road to the Final Four?


While all No.1-seeds end up having to play some stiff competition at some point during the tourney, the reality is Villanova’s potential opponents do not measure up to the Wildcats.

Villanova’s first-round matchup should be a walkover (no 1-seed has ever lost to a 16-seed) and then gears up for a matchup vs the winner of Alabama and Virginia Tech. Mikal Bridges (more on him below) is already considered a top-five perimeter defender in the country and should have no trouble locking up the Tide’s Collin Sexton or the Hokies’ Justin Robinson.

After the first weekend, the Wildcats road gets a bit tougher (as it should) but only one team in their region was ranked in the top ten nationally (Purdue). In order to win the national championship, you have to get out of your region and on paper, Villanova’s bracket may be the weakest of the four No.1 seeds.


Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges are the best 1-2 punch in the tournament ...

The two juniors have been the co-MVPs of the Wildcats all season and will likely end up as All-Americans when the selections are released by the Associated Press. Brunson and Bridges combined for over 37 points per game this season and both shoot over 40 percent from three-point range. Their performance pushed Villanova to an 11.7-point win differential, which is tops in the Big East and fourth in the country.

Mikal Bridges and the Wildcats’ perimeter defense was no joke this season, holding teams to 44 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from three-point range. Brunson, on the other hand, took home Big East Player of the Year honors and saved his best performance for last when he dropped 31 points vs Providence in the conference title game. Having a shot-maker and a perimeter hound is a perfect recipe to march to the national title.


Jay Wright is the best coach everyone isn’t talking about ...

Sure, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, and Bill Self get all the publicity but Jay Wright may be the most consistent coach out of the four. Wright has led the Wildcats to the NCAA tourney almost every year since 2005 (except 2012) and had his squad ranked as a two-seed or higher in March Madness for the last four years.

Villanova has won the Big East Championship three of the last four seasons and that’s very impressive when you consider the Wildcats have only gotten one five-star recruit since 2009 (Jalen Brunson in 2015.)

The Wildcats’ signature wins this season are remarkable when you factor in victories over Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Xavier (twice). Those three teams are all ranked fourth or higher in this tourney and each win was by double-digits. Speaking of double-digits, it’s worth noting that of Villanova’s 36 games this season, 26 of them were won by 10 points or more. This team is experienced, has played in big games and will be ready to excel again in March’s spotlight.

[New York Knight]

Since 2012 Big 12 has had 15 Top 3 seeds ... 4 have lost in the 1st round ... Rest of country has 5 in that span.

Texas Tech in danger vs SFA?

[New York Knight]

Currently FSU -1

The underdog is 11-0 ATS with 9 outright wins in Florida State's last 11 tourney games.

In Leonard Hamilton's 15 NCAA tourney games as a coach, underdog is 12-3 ATS with 9 outright wins.

[New York Knight]

Underdogs in the 8-9 games are 38-18-1 ATS with 34 outright wins since 2003.

[New York Knight]

Don't pick more than 2 #1 seeds to reach Final Four.

In 34 of 39 years either 0, 1 or 2 #1 seeds made it.

Since all 4 made in in 2008, just 12 in last 9 years.

[New York Knight]

The NCAA Tourney Total Sharps Are Betting on Tuesday


A matchup between Long Island Brooklyn and Radford (6:40 p.m. ET) wouldn’t normally move the needle, but when it’s part of the NCAA tournament First Four, public money will flow. According to our number of bets statistic, tonight’s First Four matchups are driving huge betting handles, which is expected as the Big Dance officially gets underway.

Recreational bettors have flocked toward the total in this matchup, which opened 136 at Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437).eu.

Interestingly, public bettors, usually quick to bet the over, are siding with the under in this matchup, to the tune of 62% of tickets and 92% of dollars wagered.

And yet … the total has moved up 2.5 points across the betting market to 138.5.

Bet Signals at Sports Insights have triggered two separate Steam Moves on the over, once at 137 and again at 137.5.

[New York Knight]

Virginia is the 11th #1 seed which began the season unranked.

Of the 10 previous #1 seeds to fit this profile, none reached the Final Four ... only 3 reached the Great 8, while 3 lost in the 2nd round.

[New York Knight]

Since 2005, favorites receiving less than 50% of spread tickets have gone 116-88-4 ATS (56.9%) in the NCAA Tournament.

That includes a record of 88-59-2 ATS (59.9%) during the opening week.

Early potential plays include: Texas A&M -3.5 (receiving 18% of tix), Clemson -5 (receiving 21% of tix) and Ohio State -8 (receiving 27% of tix).

[New York Knight]

Totals picks that received more than 57% of bets during March Madness last year went 24-13-1.

[New York Knight]

Early consensus picks at Odds Shark for the first round ...


68% Providence +3.5 vs Texas A&M

67% Michigan -11.5 vs Montana

65% Kansas -14 vs Penn

65% South Dakota St. +8 vs Ohio State

65% Arizona -9 vs Buffalo

[New York Knight]

ATS picks that received more than 53% of bets last year went 16-27-3

[New York Knight]

Consensus picks from Odds Shark for tonight's Games ...


66% St. Bonaventure vs UCLA Over 155

58% St. Bonaventure +3.5 vs UCLA

53% Radford vs LIU-Brooklyn Under 137

50% Radford -4.5 vs LIU-Brooklyn

[New York Knight]

Since 2008, BPI has given 16 seeds on average a 1.8% chance of beating the 1 seed.

BPI currently gives Pennsylvania a 7.1% chance to beat Kansas.

Only UNC-Asheville in 2012 had a better chance to advance as a 16 seed during that span.

[New York Knight]

Virginia DeAndre Hunter... the 6th man of the year in the ACC is out for the year with a broken left wrist


Last year Oregon lost Chris Boucher prior to the NCAA Tournament and still reached Final Four. Can UVA overcome Hunter injury and do the same?

[New York Knight]

Radford Enters First Four Matchup vs LIU Brooklyn Red-Hot


Though Radford has not played a game since winning the Big South on March 4, the Highlanders enter their First Four play-in game vs the LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds streaking. Radford has won its past seven games while holding opponents to just 53.6 points per game. Radford and LIU will meet in Dayton on Tuesday with the winner facing No. 1 seed Villanova on Thursday.


LIU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.

The total has gone UNDER in LIU’s last 3 games.

Radford is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite.


Radford coach Mike Jones cut his teeth learning under Shaka Smart at VCU, something that becomes apparent when you watch the Highlanders play defense. Radford ranks in the top 30 in the nation in points, assists and field goals allowed per game. Offensively, the team relies heavily on getting into the paint with Radford shooting an average of 21.6 three-pointers per game (163rd in the nation). The team relies heavily on freshman guard Carlik Jones to either drive or kick it to junior forward Ed Polite Jr.

LIU may be the biggest Cinderella story of the NCAA Tournament. The Blackbirds have the second-most losses of any team in the tourney and finished the regular season fourth in the NEC. To the surprise of nobody, LIU made its miracle run through the NEC tournament thanks to the tandem of Raiquan Clark and Joel Hernandez, who averaged a combined 47 points while shooting 66.2 percent from the field. The issue for LIU will undoubtedly be dealing with the big men of Radford, as the Blackbirds traditionally start four guards with senior Zach Coleman the only forward.


Team Betting Records & Power Rankings ...

The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds battle the Radford Highlanders, currently sitting with a 22-12 mark (7-8 ATS). The OVER/UNDER records, always important for totals betting, are 10-13 for the Blackbirds and 4-11 for the Highlanders.

The Power Rankings at OddsShark show No. 211-rated Radford taking on No. 76-rated LIU Brooklyn in this contest.


Recent Outings Betting Recap ...

Radford got 13 points from Carlik Jones en route to a 55-52 victory over Liberty on Sunday at Kimmel Arena.

Joel Hernandez went off for 32 points and added 7 rebounds for good measure, leading LIU Brooklyn to a 71-61 win over Wagner on Tuesday at Spiro Sports Center.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYM7YVxU8AArDKx.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on LIUBROOK-RAD


Radford opened -3.5, bet up to 5.5.

"2X more Radford money on account, and 75% Radford money over the counter."

70% of all cash on the total is on UNDER. Total opened 139, down to 136.5

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on STBON-UCLA


UCLA opened -3, ticked up to 3.5, now back to 3

"1.5X more UCLA money on account, and 80% of over-the-counter money on UCLA."

On the total, 65% of money on OVER.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYNA_QYVQAEiG8U.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

Faves/Dogs ... 1-1 ATS


Unders ... 2-0

[New York Knight]

A 15 seed has upset a 2 seed four times since 2012.

Fifteen's are also 54.5% against the spread vs 2's since 1996.

Odds of a 15 upset? 4-1.


Iona +20.5 / +2500 moneyline
Lipscomb +19.5 / +2000
CS Fullerton +20.5 / +2750
Ga. State +14 / +850

[New York Knight]

A 13 seed has beaten a 4 seed in 12 of the past 17 NCAA tourneys.

Odds on a 13 upsetting a 4? -105


Charleston +9.5 / +400 moneyline
Marshall +11.5 / +550
UNC-Green +12.5 / +650
Buffalo +8.5 / +355

[New York Knight]

12 seeds in the Round of 64 last 10 seasons of the NCAA tournament:


19-21 straight up

25-14-1 against the spread

[New York Knight]

11 is the new 12

Over the past 5 seasons, No. 11 seeds are 11-9 straight up and 12-8 against the spread vs 6 seeds.


Loyola-Chic +2 / +110 moneyline
St. Bonnie's +2.5 / +130
SDSU +4 / +165
ASU or Cuse N/A

[New York Knight]

Consensus picks from Odds Shark for tonight ...


56% NC Central +5.5 vs Texas Southern

56% NC Central vs Texas Southern OVER 147

53% Arizona State -1.5 vs Syracuse

50% Arizona State vs Syracuse O/U 143

[New York Knight]

3 seeds are 104-20 all-time against 14 seeds ... but ¼ of those losses have happened in the last 5 years.

[New York Knight]

Bet Labs ...

Gregg Marshall is 6-1-1 ATS when receiving <50% of bets in March Madness

33% of bets on Wichita State -11.5 vs. Marshall

[New York Knight]

Round of 64 ... #12 seeds have won at least one game 26 of 29 years

Round of 32 ... 87% of #1 seeds advance to Sweet 16

Sweet 16 ... Only 1 Great 8 team (last 34 years) seeded worse than #11

Great 8 ... One or Two #1 seeds in Final Four 26 of 33 years

Final Four ... Avoid #1 vs. #1 in title game (only 8 of 39 years)

Title Game ... Champ #4 seed or better 28 of last 29 years

[New York Knight]

Shaka Smart 7-1 ATS in the tourney as a double-digit seed

#10 Texas +1 vs. Nevada

[New York Knight]

Villanova (+570) is the favorite to win the championship.

Since 2012, the pre-tournament favorite has won the title 3 out of 6 times.

[New York Knight]

Sweet Home Carolina

Trend: In his career as coach of North Carolina, Roy Williams is 16-0 straight-up and 12-3-1 (80%) against the spread when his team plays an NCAA Tournament game inside the state of North Carolina.


Game: #15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina (-19.5)

16-0 straight-up is begging Lipscomb, but more likely Providence or Texas A&M, to give the Tar Heels some sort of pressure in their home state. North Carolina is winning each of those contests by an average of 20.9 PPG and is covering the spread by an average of 5.4 PPG. The Tar Heels have not lost a game straight-up inside the state of North Carolina since getting clipped 72-71 in the Round of 32 by Ivy League power Penn in 1979, a game coached by Dean Smith. Fun fact: Penn went on to play in the Final Four that year, losing to Michigan State, which subsequently played in the title game against Indiana State, and birthed the rivalry that was Magic Johnson vs. Larry Bird.

[New York Knight]

Early Boomer

Trend: Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has failed to cover his past six games as a coach in the first round and is 1-8 ATS in his past nine games on the first weekend of the tourney.


Game: #10 Oklahoma vs. #7 Rhode Island (-2)

One of my favorite coaching resumes in NCAA Tournament history: Kruger has coached five different schools to at least the Round of 32 in his career (Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma), but recently he has struggled in the early rounds. Since the 2015 NCAA Tournament, Kruger and the Sooners are 1-3 ATS in this spot. They’ve won all four games straight-up, something that may be a factor this year with Oklahoma seeded 10th and in a tight point spread contest.

[New York Knight]

3,282 Cover-Less Days

Trend: Tennessee coach Rick Barnes is in his first season in Knoxville, but while at Texas, he lost his last seven games against the spread in the NCAA Tournament dating back to the 2009 Round of 32 against Duke. When Tennessee plays on Thursday, it’ll mark 3,282 days since Barnes’ last cover in the Big Dance.


Game: # 14 Wright State vs. #3 Tennessee (-12.5)

During the seven-game ATS losing streak, Barnes and the Longhorns were 2-5 straight-up, including 2-3 SU as a favorite. One caveat: None of those Texas teams was a top-3 seed. The last time Barnes was a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament was back in 2008, when he led D.J. Augustin and Texas to the Elite 8. Since March 22, 2009 (the day after Barnes’ last ATS tournament win), no coach has more ATS tourney losses without a win than Barnes.

[New York Knight]

Money in the Tournament

Trend: In 2005, now-Arizona coach Sean Miller made his first NCAA Tournament appearance in his second season with Xavier, and Matt Painter became the head coach at Purdue. Since that year, no two head coaches have been more profitable against the spread in the first two rounds of the tournament (play-in not included) than Miller and Painter.


Game: #13 Buffalo vs. #4 Arizona (-8.5)

Game: #15 Cal State Fullerton vs. #2 Purdue (-20.5)


Miller is 12-4-2 ATS (75%) in the first two rounds of the tournament, but most of his early round success came with Xavier. With the Musketeers, Miller was 6-0-1 ATS in the first two rounds, while he is 6-4-1 ATS with Arizona, sneaking out a small profit for bettors.


Painter is 12-4 ATS (75%) in the first two rounds, including 7-2 ATS in the first round. Purdue’s 2-seed this year is the highest ever for Painter, who is 5-1 ATS in the early rounds of the tournament when his team is a top-4 seed.

[New York Knight]

A Few Major Issues

Trend: Mark Few and Gonzaga have lost 11 consecutive games against the spread in the NCAA Tournament against opponents from outside the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC).


Game: #13 UNC Greensboro vs. #4 Gonzaga (-12.5)

Few hasn’t covered the spread in the tournament against an opponent outside the power conferences since the Bulldogs’ first-round win over Valparaiso in the 2004 Big Dance. Over this 11-game stretch, Gonzaga is failing to cover the spread by 9.6 PPG, is 7-4 straight-up and has only a +1.1 PPG differential.

Since the 2004 tournament, Few has faced a power conference opponent in 23 games and Gonzaga is 12-10-1 ATS (54.5%). If Few and the Bulldogs fail to cover against UNC Greensboro, it would mark the second time a Southern Conference team covered against Gonzaga during the streak (Davidson, 2008).

[New York Knight]

Self-Aware

Trend: Since the 2004 NCAA Tournament, Bill Self’s first with Kansas, only three coaches have multiple losses in the first two rounds (play-in games not included) as a double-digit favorite: John Thompson III (Georgetown), Mike Krzyzewski (Duke) and Self (Kansas).


Game: #16 Pennsylvania vs. #1 Kansas (-13.5)

Game: #15 Iona vs. #2 Duke (-20.5)


Self’s tournament defeats in this spot came by a combined three points, while Krzyzewski’s were a little more forgiving, as his Blue Devils lost by a combined 12 points. Lately for Self, early tournament games haven’t been an issue. Kansas is 5-1 ATS in the first two rounds since the 2015 tournament, with the only slip-up in the Round of 32 to Wichita State.


(Side note: Since 2004, only one conference has defeated three different teams as a double-digit underdog in this situation: Conference USA. This year C-USA’s representative is conference tourney winner Marshall, a 13-seed facing Wichita State.)

[New York Knight]

Late Arrival

Trend: Dating back to his first season at George Mason in 2010-11, current Miami Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga is the least profitable coach in the country against the first-half spread, when the game is played in the “postseason.”


Game: #11 Loyola-Chicago vs. #6 Miami-FL (-2)

First Half: Loyola-Chicago (-1)


The term “postseason” refers to the NCAA Tournament, NIT, CBI, CIT and all conference tournament games. Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga is 6-24-2 (20%) against the first-half spread, including 2-7 in the NCAA Tournament and 1-6 in the NIT. In all 32 postseason games, Larranaga’s team is failing to cover the first half spread by 4.3 PPG, and his team’s performance during that half has a large impact on the end result.

When Larranaga’s team covers or pushes the first-half spread, it is 7-1 straight-up over the full game, when it fails to cover the first half, the record falls to 12-12 straight-up.

[New York Knight]

Through The Gauntlet

Trend: Since 2006, Davidson head coach Bob McKillop is 6-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with the Wildcats. Nothing super noteworthy … until you take a look at the coaches McKillop has had the privilege of facing in that span.


Game: #12 Davidson vs. #5 Kentucky (-5)


2015: Fran McCaffery (Iowa)
2013: Buzz Williams (Marquette)
2012: Rick Pitino (Louisville)
2008: Bill Self (Kansas), Bo Ryan (Wisconsin), John Thompson III (Georgetown), Mark Few (Gonzaga)
2007: Gary Williams (Maryland)
2006: Thad Matta (Ohio State)


The trend continues again this year with Kentucky’s John Calipari on deck.

[New York Knight]

South Point ...

Thursday games ... as of now money on ...

Radford / Alabama / Rhode Island / Duke / Penn / NC State / San Diego St / Loyola Chicago / Wright St / Ohio St

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action

Texas Southern
Arizona State

[New York Knight]

Can Texas Southern Continue Improbable Tournament Run?


On January 15, Texas Southern lost to Grambling to drop to 3-15 on the season. Tigers fans could not have predicted what happened next. Texas Southern went on to win 12 of its next 16 games and ultimately claim the SWAC championship for the third time in four seasons. Now, the Tigers will look to win just their second NCAA Tournament game in program history when they take on NC Central in their First Four matchup Wednesday.


Texas Southern is 0-11 SU in its last 11 games against teams with winning records.

NC Central is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games.

The total has gone UNDER in NC Central’s last 5 games as underdog.


Texas Southern has gone on this improbable run thanks to the offensive contributions of Demontrae Jefferson, Donte Clark and Derrick Bruce. The trio of guards is averaging a combined 54.9 points, 12.1 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game on the season thanks to their aggressive, driving style of play. You should expect that to continue against NC Central, as the Eagles record 19.5 personal fouls per game (260th in the nation).

Much like Texas Southern, NC Central got hot at the right time with wins in seven of its last nine games en route to a MEAC tournament victory. Unlike last season when the team made the First Four thanks to its offensively gifted seniors, NC Central has gotten this far this year thanks to defense. The Eagles held seven of their last nine opponents to 70 points or less. The big men of NC Central will need to play clean defense against the hard-charging guards of Texas Southern, as foul troubles would see the Eagles’ best players on the bench.


Team Betting Records & Power Rankings ...

The North Carolina Central Eagles are 19-15 so far on the season, and 11-4 vs the number. The Texas Southern Tigers, meanwhile, are 15-19 and 10-4 ATS. OVER/UNDER bettors have seen North Carolina Central go 6-9 and Texas Southern go 10-4 on betting totals.

The Power Rankings at OddsShark show No. 238-rated Texas Southern taking on No. 80-rated North Carolina Central in this contest.


Recent Outings Betting Recap ...

The Tigers got 17 points from Trayvon Reed as Texas Southern ran past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 84-69 on Saturday at Delmar Fieldhouse.

The Eagles grabbed a 71-63 win over the Pirates on Saturday, behind a 22-point effort from Pablo Rivas at Norfolk Scope Arena.

[New York Knight]

Station Casinos ...

The teams that have attracted the most-lopsided action in Thursday games ...

Michigan, Arizona and Gonzaga

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...

Favorite play tonight is NC Central +5

Tourney teams getting <50% of tickets in highly bet games ... 62% ATS since 2005

42% of bets on Eagles vs TX Southern, 2nd most bet game tonight

[New York Knight]

Syracuse, Arizona State Both Slumping Entering The First Four


Syracuse and Arizona State were undoubtedly two of the more shocking entrants in the NCAA Tournament, considering the two programs are a combined 4-10 since Valentine’s Day, but their strength of schedule seemingly lifted them to the First Four. Despite the ups and downs, both Syracuse and Arizona State are here and have the potential to mess up some brackets when the winner takes on TCU on Friday.


Arizona State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games.

The total has gone OVER in 18 of Syracuse’s last 25 games as underdog.

Syracuse is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games against the Pac-12.


Syracuse has clawed its way to the tourney thanks to a 2-3 zone defense that – despite surrendering plenty of three-point attempts – has held opponents to 64.5 points per game. The Orange have size and length that makes them a difficult team to drive the ball against and it shows with the squad ranking eighth in the nation in blocks per game and fifth in block percentage. That being said, the offense is downright awful. Syracuse averages just 67.5 ppg and has an effective field-goal percentage that ranks 321st in the country.

Arizona State is not the terrifying program it was earlier in the season but an explosive offense still gives the Sun Devils plenty of hope to go on a run. The team is 11th in points per game and the guard tandem of Tra Holder and Shannon Evans II might be the best offensive backcourt in the country when they are on. However, the team is simply not good defensively – allowing opponents to post an effective field-goal percentage over 50 percent.


Team Betting Records & Power Rankings ...

The Arizona State Sun Devils bring a 20-11 record (13-15-3 ATS) to this tilt against the 20-13 Orange, who are 14-17 ATS. Those OVER/UNDER betting have witnessed Arizona State go 16-14-1 so far and Syracuse go 14-17.

This game puts the Sun Devils, most recently No. 122 in the OddsShark power rankings, up against the Orange, who rate No. 193 in the latest survey.


Statistical Matchup ...

Scoring and defensive stats point to some betting edges in this matchup. The game features Arizona State's No. 13-ranked scoring average of 83.52 PPG, against a Syracuse defense rated No. 13 and allowing 64.55 PPG. The Sun Devils' FG% has averaged 46.44% to date this season, more than the Orange shooters have managed so far (41.82% per game).


Recent Outings Betting Recap ...

Syracuse got 20 points and 10 rebounds from Oshae Brissett in a losing cause in their 78-59 loss to North Carolina on Wednesday.

Arizona State suffered a 97-85 loss against Colorado on Wednesday, getting 20 points from Remy Martin in a losing effort at T-Mobile Arena.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYVkPyxVwAARo2a.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

BOOKS' GREATEST EXPOSURE ...


744) KENTUCKY : Public
746) ARIZONA : Public

Tons of Early Results Tied Into Both via Exotics ...

Exposure Should INCREASE with MORE Straight Bets.

[New York Knight]

Steam Moves ...


719) RADFORD
732) HOUSTON
732) UNDER SDSU-HOU (142)
731) OVER SDSU-HOU (139 - Different Account)
722) VIRGINIA TECH (Injury)
733) MONTANA
740 FLORIDA

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... on BUF-ARIZ

"They're all over Arizona"

Wildcats open -8, move to 8.5, back to 8

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on BUF-ARIZ

"It's smart money vs. the public."

'Cats open -9.5, down to 8 due to sharp play, but public all in on ARIZ."

"Not only have we seen the public back Arizona to beat Buffalo, but we have also seen a surge of wagers on Arizona (+490) to win the South Region."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on BUF-ARIZ


"2X more Arizona money on account, 6X more Arizona money over the counter." Wildcats opened -8, moved to 9 Monday and stuck there.

[New York Knight]

Bet DSI ... on SDSU-HOU

“This Cougars club is one the wiseguys are high on.”

HOU opens -3, moves to 4.

“We've taken a few more bets on Aztecs and money is almost dead even, but we're bumping this spread because of steady sharp action on Houston."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on BAMA-VATECH

"4X more VATECH money on account, 3X more VATECH money over the counter." Hokies move from -1.5 to -2

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... on VATECH-BAMA

"6X the tickets on VATECH, and they're betting VATECH on the moneyline."

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on DAV-KY

Kentucky opens -6, dipped to -5, up to 5.5 overnight.

"85% of account money on Davidson, 85% of over-the-counter money on Kentucky"

Pros vs Joes

[New York Knight]

Bet DSI ... on DAV-KY

"This was one of the more difficult lines to set, and honestly, we were a point too high on the outset. Again, the underdog is seeing the majority of sharp money"

"While the casual bettors think anything less than double digits with Kentucky is a gift. Personally, I think the Wildcats from North Carolina are getting a tad too much respect in this one.”

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on DAV-KY

“The public is laying the points with Kentucky. Sharp money coming in on the ‘dog drove it down, but the public is coming back on Kentucky. It’s a Pros vs. Joes game here.”

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island on MONT-MICH

"They’re ready to anoint Cinderella. They’re taking the points. I’ve got a feeling we’ve got some folks from Montana in the house."

“All we’ve heard all week long is how Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue had all this time off, and how it might be bad for them. I don’t know if betting against those teams is such a wise thing."

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on MONT-MICH

"Public is all over Michigan. Ticket count is 4/1 on Michigan and money is 2/1 on Michigan, and there are a lot of parlays on the Wolverines, too.”

[New York Knight]

Biggest need for LV SuperBook at this point ...

Radford and Buffalo

[New York Knight]

16 seeds have never won a game in the NCAA Tournament, but they are 46-48-2 ATS since 2005

On average, they have failed to cover by just 0.72 points per game

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action

RAD / VILL under
Davidson
Montana

[New York Knight]

Market Update ...

720) VILLANOVA
734) MICHIGAN

Public $$$ starting to REALLY pile up on BOTH FAVS & BOTH OVERS ...

[New York Knight]

Favorites win 13 of 16 and go 9-6-1 ATS (60%)


Unders ... 10-6 (62.5%)

[New York Knight]

No. 10 Providence vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)


Providence made a run to Big East Tournament Championship before coming up short against top-seeded Villanova 76-66 as a 13-point underdog. The most impressive victory was against Xavier in the semifinals with a 75-72 win as a seven-point underdog. The Friars posted a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games with the total staying UNDER in four of those contests.

The Aggies were in the middle of the pack in the SEC at 9-9 straight-up. Their stay in the conference tournament was limited to a 71-70 loss to Alabama as 3 ½-point favorites. Texas A&M comes into this tournament at 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and it has lost four of those games SU. It has averaged 75.0 points per game behind six different players averaging at least nine points per game.


The Friars have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 nonconference games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games.

This will be the first meeting in this Big East/SEC tilt.

[New York Knight]

No. 15 CS Fullerton Titans vs. No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (TruTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)


The Titans earned a berth in the Big Dance with their successful run to the Big West Conference Tournament Championship. They were fourth in the standings in the regular season at 10-6 before going on a 3-0 run both SU and ATS. The clincher was a 71-55 romp over UC Irvine as 2 ½-point underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 13 of their last 15 games.

Purdue was tied with Ohio State for the second-best record in the Big Ten at 15-3. Its run at the tournament title ended in the championship with a 75-66 loss to Michigan as a four-point favorite. This snapped a SU five-game winning streak, but going back to late January, the Boilermakers have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games with one contest ending as a PUSH.


The Titans have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 16 games played at a neutral site.

The Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in 11 or their last 15 nonconference games.

These two teams have never played one another in recent memory.

[New York Knight]

No. 13 Marshall vs. No. 4 Wichita State (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)


The Thundering Herd made a run to the Conference USA Tournament title as the No. 4 seed in the field. They finished conference play at 12-6 SU after beating the top-seeded Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 76-67 as 11 ½-point road underdogs in their regular season finale. Marshall toppled Western Kentucky 67-66 to win the C-USA Tournament as a 5 ½-point underdog.

Wichita State’s first season in the AAC ended with a 14-4 SU record, which was tied with Houston for second place. The Shockers bowed-out of the conference tournament with a 77-74 loss to the Cougars as three-point favorites. They failed to cover in seven of their last eight outings and the total has gone OVER in 13 of their last 15 games. Wichita State is averaging 83.0 PPG.


The Thundering Herd have covered in six of their last seven games at a neutral site and the total has gone OVER in their last six games played on Friday.

The Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against C-USA and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five NCAA Tournament games.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

[New York Knight]

No. 15 Georgia State vs. No. 2 Cincinnati (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)


Georgia State earned its invitation to the Big Dance with a 74-61 victory over Texas-Arlington in the title game of the Sun Belt Tournament. The Panthers covered as two-point favorites to run their current winning streak to four games both SU and ATS. Sophomore guard D’Marcus Simonds led the team in scoring this season with 21.1 PPG and he scored 27 points his last time out.

The Bearcats pulled off the daily double by winning both the AAC regular season title as well as the conference tournament. They snuck past Houston 56-55 in that title game to extend their current winning streak to seven games. After failing to cover as 4 ½-point favorites against the Cougars, they dropped to 2-4 ATS in their last six contests. Cincinnati has four different players averaging at least 11 PPG.


The Panthers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in their last six neutral-site games.

The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in this tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games at a neutral site.

These two teams have never played one another before.

[New York Knight]

#15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina (-19 ½, 162) – 2:45 PM EST – CBS


The Tar Heels (25-10 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) begin their title defense not too far from Chapel Hill as they make the short trip to Charlotte. UNC fell short to Virginia in the ACC championship, 71-63, but that isn’t the worst thing in the world. Under Roy Williams, the Tar Heels have won three national titles, as they never captured the conference tournament championship in that season (2005, 2009, and 2017).

During last year’s run to the championship, North Carolina crushed Texas Southern in the opening round, while its final three victories came by a combined nine points. The Tar Heels posted a 7-6 ATS record this season as a double-digit favorite, while routing Lipscomb in its only matchup back in 2010 by an 80-66 score.


Lipscomb (23-9 SU, 4-2 ATS) caught fire towards the end of season by winning nine of its final 10 regular season games, while capping off the Atlantic Sun tournament title by beating regular season champ Florida Gulf Coast, 108-96. Since the A-Sun doesn’t have lines on their regular season games, the Bisons posted a 1-2 ATS record in non-conference play, although it lost by double-digits to Alabama, Tennessee, and Purdue.

The last defending champion to cover in its first tournament game in the following season was Duke back in 2011, as champs in this situation own an 0-4 ATS record in this span (both UConn and Kentucky went to the NIT the next season). Meanwhile, this is the first tournament appearance ever for Lipscomb, as the last A-Sun team to grab a tourney victory was Florida Gulf Coast in the 2016 play-in game.

[New York Knight]

#10 Butler (-1 ½, 151 ½) vs. #7 Arkansas – 2:45 PM EST – truTV


Butler (20-13 SU, 15-17 ATS) struggled down the stretch by losing six of its final nine games, including a 19-point setback to Villanova in the Big East semifinals. The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight season, while winning their opening round game in six consecutive tourney trips since 2010. Butler is currently riding an 0-4 ATS run, while going 2-7 ATS the last nine games since a 5-1 ATS stretch to close out January.


Arkansas (23-11 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) picked up a pair of victories in the SEC tournament over South Carolina and Florida prior to an 18-point setback to Tennessee in the semifinals. The Razorbacks started conference play at 1-9 ATS, but rebounded with covers in six of their final eight SEC contests. The Hogs struggled in the role of an underdog by posting a 5-7 ATS record, including losses to North Carolina, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, and Missouri.

Last season, the Razorbacks knocked out another Big East team by beating Seton Hall in a pick-em role, 77-71 before getting ousted by eventual national champion North Carolina in the round of 32. In each of the past three seasons, Butler has covered the number in the opening round of the tournament, while its last ATS loss in the first round came back in 2009 to LSU.

[New York Knight]

#12 Murray State vs. #5 West Virginia (-10 ½, 145 ½) – 4:00 PM EST – TNT


Following a 15-1 start to the season, West Virginia (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) lost five of its next six games. The Mountaineers rebounded with six wins in the next nine contests and reached the Big 12 championship before ultimately losing to Kansas for the third time this season. WVU has qualified for the Sweet 16 in two of the past three seasons, including in 2017 as the Mountaineers were bounced by Gonzaga.


Murray State (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) is no stranger to pulling an upset in the Big Dance as the Racers have won a pair of tournament games since 2010. Granted, the Racers are back in the tournament for the first time since 2012 as they grabbed the Ohio Valley tournament title after beating Jacksonville State and Belmont. Murray State is riding a 13-game winning streak since losing at Belmont on January 18, while its biggest underdog spot of the season was as a 4 ½-point ‘dog in an 81-77 setback at Auburn in December.


The Mountaineers had issues covering as a hefty favorite by compiling a dreadful 2-8 ATS mark when laying at least nine points. What’s even more shocking is the three outright losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kentucky as heavy chalk, while failing to cash in their last two opportunities as a tournament favorite of 6 ½ points or more. Ohio Valley squads own a 3-2 ATS record in the past five NCAA tournament appearances, but are 0-5 SU since Murray State knocked off Colorado State in 2012.

[New York Knight]

#10 Texas (-1, 143 ½) vs. #7 Nevada – 4:30 PM EST – TBS


It’s a battle of Big 12 and Mountain West in Nashville as these two teams are hooking up for the first time since Nevada beat Texas in the opening round of the 2005 NCAA tournament. The Longhorns (19-14 SU, 15-14 ATS) were one of several bubble teams that squeezed through on Selection Sunday despite a 4-6 record in their final 10 games. The two wins that sealed Texas’ tourney invite came against West Virginia and Oklahoma in the last two weeks of the season, but are currently on an 0-4 ATS run in the favorite role.


The Wolf Pack (27-7 SU, 16-14-3 ATS) built up strong enough credentials to warrant an at-large bid in spite of getting crushed by San Diego State in the MWC semifinals, 90-73. Nevada didn’t have much luck against Big 12 schools this season by losing to Texas Tech and TCU, as those two defeats came after an 8-0 SU/ATS start. In the last 25 games of the season, the Wolf Pack put together an 8-14-3 ATS mark, but nine of those ATS losses came as a favorite of nine points or more.


Nevada graduated from CBI champions in 2016 to an NCAA tournament berth in 2017, but the Wolf Pack fell to another Big 12 club in a first round defeat to Iowa State. The Longhorns haven’t won a tournament game since 2014, while losing on a half-court buzzer-beater to Northern Iowa in 2016.

[New York Knight]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYaurCMXkAAzywA.jpg

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...

Much of today's liabilities are with teams tied into parlays carrying over from Thursday's games. For example: UMBC-VA.

“Maryland-Baltimore County is gonna be a big one for us.”

“There’s definitely a bunch of parlays for Virginia kicking in there, so we’re gonna need the ‘dog."

Line moves from VA -23 to -21.5, but that hardly matters.

"Public pointspread money 4/1 on UMBC, but the problem is all the parlays on Virginia, paying out 6/1 or 10/1 or whatever.”

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on GAST-CIN


Bearcats open -15, dip to 13.5, now bouncing between 13.5 and 14.

“We immediately got hit with action on the underdog. It wasn't until the line fell to 14 that we finally saw some buyback on the Bearcats."

"Both public and smart money combined to pound Over in this game, too.

Total opened at 127, but it wasn't until we moved to 130 that we finally began to see two-way action.” Total ticked up to 131 minutes ago.

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... on GAST-CIN


Different story, since we opened Cincy later and lower, at -13.5.

“They’re betting Cincinnati like that game’s over, and we don’t expect to get much action on Georgia State.” Line bouncing between 13.5 and 14.

"Our power ratings had this line closer, and we thought the number was gonna come out a whole lot smaller. We’ll be happy going with Georgia State plus the points. Hopefully that game puts a smile on our face.”

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on GAST-CIN


Cincy opens 14.5, dips as low as 13, then back to 14, now 13.5.

“We’re gonna need Georgia State”

“The public is on Cincy with the parlays.”

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island on ... PROV-TEXAM


Aggies open -3, down to -2

“We’re getting a little bit of action on Providence. And we’re seeing a lot of money on Providence on the moneyline.” Friars open +145 on moneyline, tick up to 150, bet down to +125

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on PROV-TEXAM


Aggies open -4, dip to 2, back up to 3 this morning. But again, at MGM books, that's not the issue

“We’ll need Texas A&M. There’s quite a bit of money on parlays for Providence.”

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on NMSU-CLEM


“New Mexico State is the team that seems to be the darling for everybody."

Aggies open +5.5, bet down to +4.5 in 12 vs. 5 matchup.

“We’re gonna need Clemson there. Straight-bet money is running 7/1 on New Mexico State, and parlays are 7/1 too.”

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on NMSU-CLEM


"We may have been too aggressive in opening Clemson as a 6-point favorite, as smart money has been pouring in on the Aggies since this game opened up."

Line opened CLEM -6, dipped to 4.5, at 5 all day Wed., but overnight NMSU money drops it back to 4.5. Public money showing on Tigers, but line drops "out of deference to smart money coming in on Aggies."

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on FLAST-MIZZOU


“Missouri opened up as a 1-point favorite, but once word broke that Jordan Barnett would be suspended, we got hit with numerous five-figure wagers on Florida State."

Line jumps fence to Seminoles -1.5 by Tuesday, and it just went to 2 in last 30 minutes.

"Barnett's absence and concerns about Michael Porter Jr. being rusty also led to an influx of wagers on the Under. We opened the total at 150.5, but that number has fallen to 147.”

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... FULL-PUR


“They’re betting Purdue, and it’s pretty much all public money there. We’re getting action on the Over too.” Boilermakers opened -20 and ticked up to 20.5, while the total went from 144.5 to 146.5

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... on MARSH-WICHST


Shockers open -11.5 bounce between 11 and 12 most of Wednesday, then surge to 12.5 late last night.

“It’s public money."

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on UMBC-VA


"Smart money on M Baltimore."

Virginia opened -22.5, bet down to 21 by Tuesday, still at 21 this morning.

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on TEX-NEV


"Opened Pick, went to Nevada -1, then a flood of Texas money, moving line to Longhorns -1.5." That sharp flood came last night. Line remains TEX -1.5 this morning.

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on FLAST-MIZZOU


Line jumps fence, from Missouri -1 to Florida State -1.5 (-115)

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on CHARL-AUB


Tigers open -10.5, bet down to -9. On all the aforementioned at Bet The Greek moves,

"All smart money."

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace books ... Biggest need at this point


Texas A&M

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Biggest need at this point ... the Lipscomb Bison

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...

Biggest needs at this point ...

Texas A&M / Lipscomb / Arkansas / Bucknell / Wichita State, and Clemson

[New York Knight]

29% of bets on Lipscomb +20.5 vs. UNC

In March Madness teams getting <30% of bets as dogs of 20 or more points: 13-3 ATS since 2005

[New York Knight]

Fading trendy underdogs in NCAA tourney: 60% ATS since 2005

69% of spread tickets on Providence +2.5 vs. Texas A&M

[New York Knight]

Odds Shark ... Public ATS picks for Friday's Round of 64 games


63% UNC -21 vs Lipscomb

62% Virginia -20.5 vs UMBC

60% New Mexico St. +4.5 vs Clemson

59% MSU -13.5 vs Bucknell

57% Purdue -20 vs CS Fullerton

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...

Betting percentages for Friday's first four games:


60% Purdue (-20)
58% Marshall (+12.5)
59% Cincinnati (-13.5)

[New York Knight]

Bovada (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frecord.bettingpartners.com% 2F_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk%2F1%2F) ...


Moneyline
Providence: 78%
Texas A&M: 22%

Providence (+3): 62.6%
Texas A&M (-3): 37.4%

Total
Over 139: 73.5%
Under 139: 26.5%

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ ...

New Mexico State is the trendiest public pick of the day with 74% of wagers.

[New York Knight]

Which Friday NCAA Tournament Bets are Being Overvalued by the Public?


Public bettors did not make out well in the matchups we highlighted Thursday, easily losing with Gonzaga and St. Bonaventure while likely losing with South Dakota State as well, considering the number was +7.5 at the time our article posted.


#12 New Mexico State (+4.5) vs. #5 Clemson

9:55 p.m. ET

This game is driving an insanely large betting handle already with 73% of tickets and 79% of dollars wagered grabbing New Mexico State and the points. With one-sided action coming down on such a heavily-bet game, oddsmakers have been forced to drop the line from an opener of Aggies +5.5 down to +4.5. Trendy dog anyone?


Why the public loves New Mexico State ...

New Mexico State is the most popular 12-seed to advance to the round of 32 in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge brackets. Recreational bettors flood the college basketball market during the NCAA Tournament and there’s often a correlation between trendy upset picks and landing spots for public money, and this is a prime example.



# 15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina (-20)

2:45 p.m. ET

North Carolina opened as a 19.5-point favorite at Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437).eu and bettors have been all over the Tar Heels. Seventy percent of tickets and 79% of dollars are laying the points, pushing this line up to -20.


Why the public loves North Carolina ...

UNC is the defending National Champion and is attempting to navigate its way to a third-straight title game. Conversely, today’s round of 64 game will be the first time Lipscomb has ever played in the NCAA Tournament.



#13 College of Charleston (+9) vs. #4 Auburn

7:25 p.m. ET

We’ve got another trendy dog alert with 68% of spread tickets backing College of Charleston. With the public loading up on the Cougars, oddsmakers have dropped the line from an opener of +11 down to +9 in an attempt to encourage Auburn action and offset building liability.


Why the public loves College of Charleston ...

To be completely honest, I have no idea why the public likes College of Charleston so much. However, with so much recreational money playing the same side and no sign of sharp action so far this week, don’t be surprised to see wiseguys buyback Auburn before this game tips.

[New York Knight]

Heavy support has moved New Mexico State from +5.5 to +4 vs. Clemson.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYbIMeyUMAAVjpA.jpg
http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/images/misc/progress.gif

[New York Knight]

Friday’s Sharp Report: Wiseguys Pounding Two NCAA Tourney Unders


Just like Thursday’s round of 64 matchups, professionals have had plenty of time to get down on today’s slate of NCAA Tournament games. Interestingly, sharp bettors have remained very disciplined regarding Friday’s games, selecting only a couple of spots to aggressively get down their action.

After examining percentages, line movement and bet signals, here are two NCAA Tournament bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 2:45 and 3:10 p.m. ET.


#15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina Under 162.5

2:45 p.m. ET

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437).eu opened today’s Lipscomb-North Carolina matchup with a total of 164.5 and the majority of bettors have been lining up to play the over. Sixty-six percent of tickets and 79% of dollars wagered on the total have taken the over, yet the line has dropped to a consensus of 162.5 across the betting market.

According to our Bet Signals — available to all Sports Insights Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers — professional bettors have hit the under multiple times this week, highlighted by three Reverse Line Moves and one Steam Move. While the majority of action is playing the over, it’s clear that professional money is driving this total down.



#10 Butler vs. #7 Arkansas Under 151

3:10 p.m. ET

In a game attracting a surprisingly large handle, 62% of tickets wagered on the total are currently on the over. However, our money percentages reveal that 56% of dollars wagered have actually taken the under, revealing why this total has dropped from an opener of 153.5 down to 151.

Two Reverse Line Moves and one Steam Move were also triggered on the under earlier this week, confirming that sharp action is responsible for this line movement.

[New York Knight]

Market Update ...

One-Sided Public $$$ on CINCINNATI.


Betting Syndicates on OPPOSITE Sides (GST +14 / CIN -13).

Betting Syndcates Also went OVER thru 130 - with some Buy Back at 131.5

[New York Knight]

Bet Labs ...

Majority of bets on Marshall +12.5 vs. Wichita State

Shockers 6-1-1 ATS in tourney when getting <50% of bets

[New York Knight]

2nd HALF STEAM

TEXAS A&M

Multiple Betting Syndicates on Aggies for Game.

[New York Knight]

First half UNDER off to a hot start again today.

Now 15-6 for the tourney.

[New York Knight]

Marshall vs WichitaSt (-13.5)

O/U 166.5


Current Ticket %

ATS: Marshall 59%
ML: Marshall 60%
Total: Under 52%

[New York Knight]

Top-2 seeds in NCAA tourney first round favored by fewer than 20 points: +60% ATS since 2005

2-seed Cincy -13.5 vs. Georgia State Bearcats

[New York Knight]

The Action network ...


3 largest moneyline ticket %s of the day in the NCAA Tournament:

77%: College of Charleston (+400)

75%: New Mexico State (+155)

73% St. Bonaventure (+225)

[New York Knight]

North Carolina in the NCAA tournament since 2005:

All games: 28-20-2 (58%) ATS

As a favorite: 28-15-2 (65%) ATS

As a favorite of 3 or more: 26-13 (67%) ATS

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace Books ...

Biggest needs for second set of afternoon games

Lipscomb and Georgia State

"A Mashall win (over Wich St) is also very bad."

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action (Before 7 PM ET)

UNC
LIP / UNC over

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


UNC is low six figure liability on spread and Lipscomb is mid 5-figure liability on ML ... the over is low 5-figure liability

[New York Knight]

LATE STEAM Update ...

UNDER BUT / ARK ...

Some outs still serving up 151.5 & 152

Should show up on screen when piggy-backers break protocol

[New York Knight]

Shaka Smart 7-1 ATS as a double-double digit seed in tourney


Majority of bets on Nevada -1 but sharp bet signal (Steam Move) on Horns

[New York Knight]

Michigan State vs. Bucknell


Only 32% of bets on Bucknell, line moved from -14 to -13.5

"Contrarian" bet signal triggered

[New York Knight]

Current results ...


Favorites: 18-4 SU ... 13-8-1 ATS (62%)

Unders ... 15-7 (68%)

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action

College of Charleston
UMBC
Florida State
New Mexico State

[New York Knight]

Xavier has been a favorite of 20+ points five times this season.

The Musketeers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with an average scoring margin of +28.4 in those games.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Low six figure liability on Creighton spread ... mid 5-figure liability on Creighton ML and low 5-figure liability on OVER

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...

Biggest needs at this point for the night slate ...

Clemson and Kansas State

[New York Knight]

First-half unders started 8-0 (First Four games and first four on Thursday) but slowed down to end Thursday at 9-7 and 13-7 overall

First-half unders 6-2 today ... so 19-9 through 28 games

FYI: first-half dogs lead 15-13 ATS

[New York Knight]

Market Update ...

BOOKS' GREATEST EXPOSURE (Risk)


878) MICHIGAN ST : Public $$$

893) CHARLESTON : Wiseguy $$$ + Public $$$

884) XAVIER : Public $$$

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Michigan State is the biggest SPREAD liability for the next set of tip offs.

[New York Knight]

Entering their matchup against Charleston tonight, Auburn is 7-0 all-time in Round of 64 games in the NCAA Tournament, the most wins without a loss by any school in the country.

[New York Knight]

With Bucknell 1st half cover it makes the Big 10 teams 0-4 ATS in the first half in the tourney

[New York Knight]

First half unders ... 22-10 with the final session of the first round remaining.

[New York Knight]

Underdog in 8-9 matchup 60% ATS since 2005 in tourney

Steam move, indication of sharp money, on Mizzou +1

[New York Knight]

New Mexico State is a trendy upset pick to topple Clemson but the Aggies are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in March Madness since 1999.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...


Book will need UMBC against Virginia, and REALLY need Clemson against New Mexico State

[New York Knight]

First-half unders went 3-1 in the last block of 4 games ... went 11-3 today and 20-12 (62.5%) in the first round

If you include the 4-0 from the First Four, first-half unders are 24-12 (66.7%)

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...

Round of 32 Update:

Nova new champion according to 10,000 simulations

[New York Knight]

There has been 7 1-seeds since 1985 favored by fewer than 5 pts in 2nd round


1-5-1 ATS ... 5 SU losses


Kansas currently -4.5 vs Seton Hall.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race and Sports ... on URI-DUKE


“There’s not much pointspread action on this game, but we did take a large moneyline bet on Duke. He laid -550. So that’d be a good win for us if Duke loses.”

[New York Knight]

Bet DSI ... on URI-DUKE


“Rhode Island is again seeing sharp money, but not as much as in the Oklahoma game. The public is on Blue Devils to the tune of 75 percent, but the pros are playing the ‘dog."

"Handle only favors Duke by 55-45 margin. There’s sharp action on Under in this game as well."

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on URI-DUKE


"Anytime Duke loses in March, it tends to be a good day for the house. Duke seems to factor into everyone's teasers on Saturday, with most holding Duke -3."

"We will be rooting for the 'dog here as a Rhode Island win would not only beat the teasers but take care of all the Duke moneyline parlays."

[New York Knight]

Treasure Island ... on BUF-KY


"For some reason, they're keying on the Under."

Opened 158.5, down to 157.5 early Friday evening, then big jump to 154.5 by late night.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on BUF-KY


“The thing here is the total. We opened 158.5 and it’s down to 155.5. That’s just a few sharp plays around a couple dimes each ($2,000)."

[New York Knight]

Bet DSI ... on LOYCHI-TEN


“Same story with Loyola-Chicago, as we took a ton of respected money on the Ramblers against Miami, and we're seeing those same guys grab this team again."

Vols open -6.5, bet down to 5 late last night, tick to 5.5, back to 5.

“The overall ticket count is pretty balanced, with 57 percent on the Vols, but the money handle favors the underdog 70/30.”

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on BUF-KY


"Buffalo made some people believers with impressive win over Arizona. We opened Calipari's crew as 6-point favorites, but early action from both public and smart money has dropped the line down to 5.5."

"Not only are players looking for the Bulls to cover, but we have been writing Buffalo moneyline tickets since this game opened up." Buffalo around +210 on moneyline.

[New York Knight]

Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437) ... on OHIOST-GONZ


"GONZ opened up 2.5-point favorite, but smart money quickly moved line to 3.5. Some of our most respected gamblers came in on the Bulldogs, and it wasn't until we moved to 3.5 that we started to see some OHIOST money."

"Once we went to 3.5, we have seen an even balance of money on both the favorite and 'dog."

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on HOU-MICH


"A lot of parlays building up Michigan, but not much pointspread action yet at all."

Wolverines open -3, tick to 3.5 early this morning here in Vegas.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on OHIOST-GONZ


"Gonzaga building a lot of parlay money too." Zags open -3, move to 3.5 in the last half hour.

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


Round of 64 ATS betting trends


Favorites: 16-14-2

< 40% Bets: 9-8-2

SEC: 5-3

MWC: 2-0

ACC: 4-5

Big 12: 3-4

13-seeds: 4-0

5-seeds: 3-0-1

[New York Knight]

Best ATS records for teams still in the tournament ...

Michigan 23-11-1
Loyola Chicago 20-9-1
Villanova 23-12
Marshall 21-11
Duke 21-11
Xavier 21-12-1

[New York Knight]

The Action Network‏ ...

Most lopsided spread bets today

Gonzaga 77%
Michigan 76%
Kansas 74%

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action

URI
BUF-KY under
Loyola Illinois (small)

[New York Knight]

Thinking about riding the Buffalo Bulls after their big upset?


#13 or higher seeds are 6-15 ATS in the Round of 32 since 2005.

[New York Knight]

Sizable favorites (five or more points) have gone 71-52-1 (58%) ATS since 2005 in the Round of 32


60%+ of bets on Duke -9 vs. Rhode Island

[New York Knight]

Rhode Island will be an underdog for just the 6th time this season when they take on Duke.

The Rams are just 1-4 SU and ATS as pups this year.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on URI-DUKE


"1.5 times more Rhode Island money on account, 2 times more Duke money over the counter."

Rams getting sharper support, public on Blue Devils.

[New York Knight]

Top Public %'s Vegas Books


Gonzaga -3.5 ... 69%
Michigan -3 ... 67%
Kentucky -5.5 ... 60%

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace Books ...


Needs at this point ... Rhode Island / Ohio State and Houston

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


As of now the biggest needs are Rhode Island and Houston

[New York Knight]

Market Update : RIU vs DUKE


TIX-COUNT (Volume) = DUKE 3.5 to 1 ... OVER 2 to 1

$$$-BET (Risk) = DUKE 2 to 1 ... OVER 2 to 1

Betting Syndicates OPPOSITE Public on BOTH

Helps Limit Exposure for Books - Most Risk on Exotics.

[New York Knight]

LV SuperBook ...


Biggest needs at this point ... Ohio State and Houston

[New York Knight]

Buffalo is just the third team since 2005 to win by more than 20 points as a double-digit seed in the 1st Round

The previous two teams that accomplished the feat went 0-2 straight-up and ATS in their next game, failing to cover by an average of 6.8 points

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ Contributing Books ...


Kentucky vs. Buffalo


Spread: 57% on Wildcats -5.5

ML: 50% on Wildcats -270

Total: 51% on Over 154


22,532 total bets

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Public money across board on Kentucky

A little sharp money on Loyola-Chicago, taking Tennessee from -6 to -5, but Vols still drawing bulk of overall action due to heavy public play.

[New York Knight]

Underdogs from mid-major conferences have gone 37-57-2 (39%) ATS since 2005 in the Round of 32

Vols -5 vs. Loyola Chicago

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...

Sharp Action

Gonzaga

[New York Knight]

Bill Self is 7-1 ATS as a 1 seed in the round of 32 ... All of those wins were by double digits.

Kansas -4.5 vs Seton Hall

[New York Knight]

The Action Network‏ ...


Kansas (-4.5) is getting 70% of bets vs. Seton Hall.

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ Contributing Books ...


Kansas vs. Seton Hall


Spread: 67% on Jayhawks -4.5

ML: 65% on Jayhawks -230

Total: 68% on Over 155


24,930 total bets

[New York Knight]

The Under is 29-10 in Jayhawks' last 39 NCAA Tournament games.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on SH-KAN


"We definitely need Seton Hall big. Liability has increased significantly since this morning."

ATS money 5/1 on Kansas, ticket count 4/1. "And a lot of parlays on Kansas. Seton Hall outright would be great!"

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on OHIOST-GONZ


"We're gonna need Ohio St for a medium decision."

4/1 pointspread money on Gonzaga and 2/1 ticket count.

"If Gonzaga and Kansas cover, it's gonna be bad. We need one of the 'dogs to cover."

[New York Knight]

Overs in the Round of 32 when the line goes up ... 67-53-1 (56%) since 2005

Michigan / Houston opened 134 ... up to 135.5

Steam move on the Over

[New York Knight]

Michigan enters the round of 32 going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

7 of the 10 victories coming by double digits. They also have a nice streak going vs teams with winning records, going 7-0 SU and ATS in that spot.

[New York Knight]

After going 5-3 ATS today, favorites now 21-17-1 ATS with 1 game (Nevada-Texas) closing as a pick 'em


Over/ Unders split 4-4 today ... unders now 23-17 overall (57.5%)

[New York Knight]

Odds Shark ...

Public ATS picks for Sunday's Round of 32 games


63% UNC -7 vs Texas A&M

60% Marshall +12.5 vs WVU

59% Clemson +1 vs Auburn

56% Xavier -6 vs FSU

56% UMBC +10 vs Kansas State

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on BUT-PUR


"There’s actually good two-way action on that game. Ticket count is about the same, money a little more on Purdue. We opened 3.5, went to 4 briefly, then back to 3.5. That was probably sharp money bringing it back down."

"But with parlays even to both sides, it’s just good two-way action all the way around.”

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on UMBC-KANST


“Money is fairly even on account, and 80% of over-the-counter money is on K-State. But that could shift closer to tip, as bettors may want to jump in with a trendy storyline on UMBC.”

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on TEXAM-UNC


“80% of account money on North Carolina, and 85% of over-the-counter money on North Carolina."

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ... on SYR-MICHST


“It looks like we’re gonna need Syracuse pretty good. There are a bunch of parlays rolling into Michigan State. We’re gonna need Syracuse to knock out those parlays."

"On pointspread bets, it’s 2/1 on tickets for Michigan, but the money is running about even.”

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ... on NEV-CIN


“85% of account money is on Cincy, and it’s running fairly even over the counter."

[New York Knight]

Bet The Greek ... on today's liabilities

Sharp play takes Michigan State from -8 to -9 (-115), against Syracuse. And Cincinnati goes from -7 to -8 on sharp action for its game vs. Nevada.

[New York Knight]

MGM Race And Sports ...


"Players took a beating (Saturday). They might be taking a break before betting Sunday's games."

[New York Knight]

Matt Painter is 14-4 ATS in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in his coaching career, including 10-2 ATS in his past 12 games

Purdue -3.5 vs. Butler

[New York Knight]

Favorites in the Round of 32 getting <50% of bets ... 66% ATS since 2005

< 50% of bets on K-State -10 vs. UMBC

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights‏ ...

Most lopsided spread tickets today

81% on UNC
67% on Marshall
64% on Clemson
63% on Purdue

[New York Knight]

Best teams ATS remaining in the tournament


Loyola Chicago 21-9-1
Villanova 24-12
Duke 22-11
Michigan 23-12-1
Marshall 21-11
Xavier 21-12-1

[New York Knight]

ATS


Double-Digit Faves: 9-6-1

< 50% Bets: 19-23-2

< 40% Bets: 13-11-2

< 30% Bets: 2-1-1

Big East: 5-2-1

5-seeds: 4-1-1

13-seeds: 4-1

2-seeds: 4-1

12-seeds: 0-3-1

4-seeds: 1-4

[New York Knight]

History says either Cincy, UNC or Purdue will lose today.

Just once in last 21 years have all four two seeds reached Sweet 16.

Duke already through.

[New York Knight]

Market Update ...

Good 2-way volume on Butler vs Purdue

Little more "Risk" on FAV & OVER due to Exotics.

Majority of $$$ hitting betting windows now

[New York Knight]

KSU - Dean Wade (Foot) is downgraded to doubtful vs. UMBC


Kansas State currently -10 around the market and getting 49% of tickets.

[New York Knight]

Purdue - Isaac Haas (Elbow) - is downgraded to out vs. Butler

[New York Knight]

Caesars Palace Books ...


Biggest needs at this point ... Texas A&M and Florida State

[New York Knight]

Since the 2002 NCAA Tournament, Cuse coach Jim Boeheim is 10-1 SU and ATS when seeded higher than his opponent

Orange +9.5 vs. Michigan State

[New York Knight]

The Greek Sportsbook‏ ...


Early Sharp Action

Michigan State
UNC
Cincinnati
NEV / CIN over
Florida State
FSU / XAV under
West Virginia (small)