The Belmont Stakes - June 9th 2018

[Can'tPickAWinner]

http://www.turfway.com/Uploads/images/Belmont_2018.png (https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwigpb3pwL_bAhUEoVMKHQw-DdsQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.turfway.com%2Fhome&psig=AOvVaw3cYwXMDwOQqaWHMToJUuGQ&ust=1528390480137996)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jody Demling sportsline - Belmont stakes

$10 EXACTA 1 with 8,10 ($20)

$5 EXACTA 1 with 2,3,4,7 ($20)

$0.50 TRIFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL ($16)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL with ALL ($22.40)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with ALL ($12.60)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg selections.

Belmont

Exacta Box: 1,4,10

Superfecta: 1,4,10,8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jody Demling sportsline - Belmont stakes

$10 EXACTA 1 with 8,10 ($20)

$5 EXACTA 1 with 2,3,4,7 ($20)

$0.50 TRIFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL ($16)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL with ALL ($22.40)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with ALL ($12.60)

HORSE RACING GURU REVEALS 2018 BELMONT STAKES LEADERBOARD

Jody Demling had a huge Preakness Stakes, winning exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets. Now he's focused on the Belmont Stakes, where Justify looks to secure the Triple Crown.



Jody Demling had a heck of a Preakness Stakes, hitting exacta, trifecta and superfecta winners. He took Justify to win it, which also gives him nine of the last 14 Preakness Stakes winners.

Now he's focused on a repeat performance at the Belmont.

Last year, he said overwhelming favorite Irish War Cry would take second at the Belmont Stakes to 5-1 sleeper Tapwrit. Demling was spot-on, winning not just that exacta but the trifecta and superfecta, a bet that paid out nearly $4,500.

Those are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the winners Demling has passed on to SportsLine members.

Last year, he also nailed the Travers Stakes and hit the superfecta in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He then called the 1-2 finish at the Pegasus World Cup and predicted the winners of the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Humana Distaff, among many others.

Anyone who follows Demling's advice is way, way up.

Following Tuesday's post draw for Saturday's Belmont Stakes (post time: 6:37 p.m. ET), Demling analyzed the odds and released where he says every horse will finish.

We can tell you Demling is not high on Bravazo, who nearly won the Preakness with a hard, late charge, due to his No. 3 post position. That position near Justify on the rail likely will see Bravazo try to keep pace early, Demling said, a move that will cause him to tire early on the long, 1.5-mile course.

"Bravazo will be forwardly placed and will try to hang with the leaders early in the race," Demling said. "He'll be fine until they turn for home."

But Demling is especially high on a long shot that would net any backer a colossal windfall. Anyone who backs him could be in for a HUGE payday.

So what are Jody Demling's 2018 Belmont picks? Where does Justify finish? What major long shot should you jump on?... Join SportsLine here to get Jody Demling's Belmont Stakes picks and predictions for every single horse, plus get his exacta, trifecta and superfecta recommendations, all from the betting guru who nailed the 1-2 finish and superfecta last year!

Here is Demling's writeup:

The sport of horse racing waited 37 years between the last Triple Crown winners.

Now, just three years after American Pharaoh ended that drought and won the Triple Crown, trainer Bob Baffert is back with Justify and a chance to become the sport's 13th horse to capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

Post time for the Belmont Stakes is set for 6:37 p.m. ET from Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.

Nine horses have been entered to try to stop the Triple Crown run of Justify. Among the top contenders in the race - other than Justify - are Preakness runner-up Bravazo, Preakness third-place finisher Tenfold and Derby closers - who have been freshened since the first week of May in the Derby - Hofburg and Vino Rosso.

American Pharaoh - also trained by Baffert - won the Triple Crown in 2015 but six other horses since 2000 have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown before falling short at the Belmont. Baffert had War Emblem ('02), Real Quiet ('98) and Silver Charm ('97) all win the first two legs of the Triple Crown but lose in the Belmont Stakes, with the latter two finishing second.

Here's a complete leaderboard, with post positions in parentheses:

—1. (1) Justify (4-5) - I was going to pick against him and then I saw rain in the forecast for Saturday. He's done absolutely nothing wrong in his short career and has looked full of energy in his training sessions this week at Churchill Downs. Only thing that has me a bit worried is the last horse to win the Belmont drawing the rail was Empire Maker in 2003 - in a six-horse field.

—2. (8) Vino Rosso (8-1) - Went back and looked at his Derby; yes he finished ninth but he was wide the entire race and he was still running in the stretch; a few weeks off and he's been training well. Looks like he's ready to try to halt the Triple Crown bid of Justify.

—3. (10) Blended Citizen (15-1) - Winner of the Peter Pan Stakes in his last start is getting better and better every time he hits the track; he's a consistent closer and one of the horses that Team Baffert has to worry about on Saturday. He's a legit threat to win the race.

—4. (4) Hofburg (9-2) - He's fresh after skipping the Preakness Stakes and his sire - Tapit - has produced three recent winners of the Belmont. I just wish he had a little more experience heading into this race.

—5. (7) Tenfold - The Steve Asmussen trained colt was coming down the stretch in the Preakness Stakes; the pace will be different here and the field is much, much tougher.

—6. (2) Free Drop Billy (30-1) - I believe he will be coming in the end because his pedigree suggests stamina - and lots of it. I just don't think he's fast enough or as talented as the others to make it all the way into the money.

—7. (3) Bravazo (8-1) - With the No. 3 post position, I look for Bravazo to be close to the front and try to run with Justify from the get-go. But I think when they turn for home, this time he's not going to almost catch the favorite.

—8. (9) Noble Indy (30-1) - Finished 17th in the Derby at long odds; has been training well at Belmont Park since returning to the track but not seeing it here.

—9. (5) Restoring Hope (30-1) - Has the pedigree to get a piece in the Belmont; but his last race was a clunker in the slop at Churchill Downs and just not sure he belongs in the mix with these other horses.

—10. (6) Gronkowski (12-1) - I thought he would have finished last in the Kentucky Derby; will be easier for him to move up a couple of spots with fewer horses but just can't see him challenging in a race of this caliber.

One of the worst bets of the day will be the WIN bet on Justify; so many people will buy souvenir $2 tickets in case he does win the Triple Crown that the price will be as low as it can go.

So instead, let's try to hit the exotics.

$10 EXACTA 1 with 8,10 ($20)

$5 EXACTA 1 with 2,3,4,7 ($20)

$0.50 TRIFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL ($16)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 1 with 4,7,8,10 with ALL with ALL ($22.40)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with 1,4,8,10 with ALL ($12.60)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg selections.

Belmont

Exacta Box: 1,4,10

Superfecta: 1,4,10,8

If you put down $300 on Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's 2004 Belmont Stakes picks, you would have won over $21,000. He also called Creator winning the Belmont as a 10-1 underdog in 2016 and was all over American Pharoah completing the Triple Crown in 2015. He has his finger on the pulse of this track, and it shows.

Goldberg was all over Birdstone at the 2004 Belmont Stakes. He pounced on the 30-1 long shot to win and put him on top of his exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets. He knew Birdstone was a perfect fit for the distance and nailed the upset of Smarty Jones, who had won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and was going off at lower than 1-1. Hammer and his followers cashed huge.

This year Goldberg said Justify would win the Kentucky Derby, knowing he had the goods to run in the slop, and told his followers to fade trendy pick Mendelssohn, who finished dead last. Then, he called Justify repeating at the Preakness despite a heel injury and sloppy track – which is exactly what happened. He also cashed the Pick 4, Pick 5, and Pick 6 at Pimlico this year.

Now, Hammer has released his picks for the 2018 Belmont Stakes.

We can tell you Goldberg is concerned Justify will be winded on Saturday. "The problem I have with Justify is he's coming out of an extremely tiring race; the Preakness really took a lot out of him," Goldberg told SportsLine. "Plus, he's run five races in a very short period of time."

At the same time, Goldberg is eyeing a long shot who has a big edge in distance -- exactly what's needed in the Belmont. Anyone who backs this underdog could hit it big.

So what are Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's 2018 Belmont picks? Where does Justify finish? And what long shot should you jump on?... Join SportsLine here to get Goldberg's specific betting recommendations for the Belmont, all from the horse racing legend who has absolutely nailed this race and was all over this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Last update: Friday, June 8, 11:30 a.m.

Here are Goldberg's specific betting recommendations:

"I'm going to use three horses in the Pick 6 and Pick 4: Justify, Hofburg and Blended Citizen," said Goldberg, who said Justify is "probably" going to win but Hofburg has a "big chance." Blended Citizen has a lesser chance due to his jockey's inexperience.

"He did ride well in the Peter Pan but he's stepping up in class as is Todd Pletcher's horse, Vino Rosso, who beat a very weak field in the Wood," Goldberg continued. "Todd's horse is bred to go this distance. He's going to come from off the pace. He's a good bet to hit the board but I don't think he can win. The other three have a chance to win.

"I'm also going to use Bravazo underneath."

"Justify will win the race if he's right, but I give Hofburg a big chance."

Goldberg said he'll likely box Justify and Hofburg with the other three (Blended Citizen, Vino Rosso, Bravazo) in $10 exactas.

"Let's say Hofburg wins and Blended Citizen runs second -- you'll get a nice ticket."

He'll also do a $24 superfecta with Justify on top of the other four horses (Hofburg, Blended Citizen, Vino Rosso, Bravazo) and a $24 superfecta with Hofburg on top of the other four (Justify, Blended Citizen, Vino Rosso, Bravazo).

"I'm not going to do much with trifectas," Goldberg added. "Where I'll make my money is in Pick 4s and Pick 6s. My big exacta bet will be the 1-4-10."

Here were Hank's thoughts on every horse immediately following Tuesday's post draw:

Post No. 1. - Justify (4-5)

I think Justify is still the horse to beat in the Belmont. I'm not crazy about Justify drawing post No. 1, but it's a mile-and-a-half track and he should control the pace of the race. Therefore, he shouldn't have too much trouble with the No. 1 post. The problem I have with Justify is he's coming out of an extremely tiring race; the Preakness really took a lot out of him. Plus, he's run five races in a very short period of time. If Justify is right, he beats these horses and he can win by a lot.

Post No. 2. - Free Drop Billy (30-1)

His last win was in 2017. His 3-year-old campaign has been nothing to write home about. I'm not a fan.

Post No. 3. - Bravazo (7-1)

His post draw is okay. Bravazo's only had one bad race, the Louisiana Derby, which also has a long back stretch. He's trained well and is bred to run distance. If it's raining, I move this horse up.

Post No. 4 - Hofburg (9-2)

Hofburg is my horse. He reminds me of Birdstone, the 2004 Belmont Stakes winner, and has the same exact training pattern of going to Saratoga. He is trained by Bill Mott, who is based in New York and a great trainer. He'll have this horse ready.

Post No. 5 - Restoring Hope (30-1)

I don't know why Bob Baffert is running him since he has the favorite in this race. He finished third in the Wood Memoria to Vino Rosso. To me, he has no shot.

Post No. 6 - Gronkowski (12-1)

Gronkowski has never run on dirt. All of his races in England were on synthetic tracks. Trainer Chad Brown is worried about him not being close enough to the pace in the Belmont. He hasn't run since March 30th, which will hurt him on the mile-and-a-half long track.

Post No. 7 - Tenfold (12-1)

His trainer is very good. He could be part of the pace factor in this race. He got bumped in the Preakness and finished strong. He's not getting a lot of attention but he will be well placed in this race. And if it's a sloppy track, you've got to look at him.

Post No. 8 - Vino Rosso (8-1)

I'm liking Vino Rosso more and more. I think he will like the mile-and-a-half track. He never got to run his race at the Kentucky Derby because he was on the outside. He's being trained by Todd Pletcher, who's won the Belmont Stakes three times. And John Velazquez is riding him. Velazquez, who's been a top rider in New York for years, is a great big race rider.

Post No. 9 - Noble Indy (30-1)

Not a good draw for Noble Indy. He could be the speed in this race and could have the lead early. The No. 9 post isn't the best position, but he should make the lead without any trouble. He had no shot in the Kentucky Derby because he drew the No. 19 post and was never able to get in position. Noble Indy needs to be in the lead, or just off the lead, to have any chance whatsoever. But I don't think he will have the stamina to be a factor in the stretch run.

Post No. 10 - Blended Citizen (14-1)

I like Blended Citizen. He came from off the pace in the Peter Pan race. I was able to hit the exacta with him in that race. He's run four races this year and has won twice. The problem I have with this horse is that he's being ridden by a guy who has little experience at Belmont. There's a long run down the back stretch and riders with no experience at the Belmont tend to move too early and that usually costs them the race. The horse has enough talent that I am going to use him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eddie Olczyk's Belmont Picks: Take What They Give You

by Eddie Olczyk

June 6, 2018

Analysis: The Belmont Stakes always is interesting because you get some fresh horses to the Triple Crown series (new shooters), and you also get some who you think can get the mile and one-half distance. My handicapping take always has been that the mile and one-half race really boils down to about a half-mile. Positioning for each rider is all that is achieved in the first seven furlongs to a mile, and then it comes down to which horse is best over the last half-mile of those that are in the proper place. It’s a tough grind for a horse at the final part of the Triple Crown journey. When you hit the bottom of the tank, and believe me I recall that from my playing days, you’d better have something left or have a will to find it if it’s not really there.

Main Contenders: It is JUSTIFY’SBelmont to win or lose. They could have gone around again in the Preakness and nobody was going to get by him. He came out of the race well and has looked great in his training since then by all accounts. I’m not a chalk player, but sometimes you have to take what the races and the toteboard give you. There is some sentiment out there that he’s vulnerable and some handicappers will look to beat him. Six races since February 18 is a factor and a concern. But I trust in Bob Baffert, and his looks in training say “Yes!” If you wind up with 4-5 or 3-5 odds, that’s fair. HOFBURG is the other horse I trust most as he goes out for Hall of Fame Trainer, Mr. Bill Mott. He ran great in the Xpressbet Florida Derby and then didn’t have the cleanest of trips in Kentucky. Those big, sweeping turns at Belmont will hit him right between the eyes. He’s sitting on a big race and will relish the distance. It’s as if the Belmont was his target race from the beginning, especially given his pedigree, patient trainer and late start to his career.

Value Plays: Honestly, I can see anybody running third or fourth below the top pair. I will try to beat the Preakness pursuers, BRAVAZO and TENFOLD, as I don’t trust their performance at Pimlico as much as the margins suggest. I will attack the exacta with focus and use some of that uncertainty below in trying to land a price for the remaining slot in the trifecta.



Wagering Strategy ($100):

$52 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($52)

$4 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over HOFBURG over ALL ($32)

$2 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over ALL over HOFBURG ($16)

Eddie’s Picks

JUSTIFY
HOFBURG

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BELMONT STAKES PICKS
docsports
Belmont Park Selections for Saturday, June 9, 2018
Belmont Park
Race 8 - $700K Running of the Longines Just a Game Stakes - 1 Mile (GI)
TOP HORSE: 3 - Off Limits
SECOND CHOICE: 7 - A Raving Beauty
THIRD CHOICE: 1 - On Leave
(LONG SHOT): 4 - Lull
Recommended Bets ($378 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (3)
$20 W/P/S (7)
$10 W/P/S (1)
$10 Exacta Box (3-7-1-4)
$1 Tri 3,7/1,3,7,4/1,3,7,4,5,8 $24
$1 Tri 1,3,4,7/3,7/1,3,7,4,5,8 $24


Race 9 - $1.2 Million Running of the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap - 1 Mile (GI)
TOP HORSE: 1 - Mind Your Biscuits
SECOND CHOICE: 10 - Bee Jersey
THIRD CHOICE: 5 - Good Samaritan
(LONG SHOT): 3 - Limousine Liberal
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (1)
$20 W/P/S (10)
$10 W/P/S (5)
$10 Exacta Box (1-10-5-3)

Race 10 - $1 Million Running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes - 1 1/4 Miles (GI)
TOP HORSE: 10 - Beach Patrol
SECOND CHOICE: 3 - Hi Happy
THIRD CHOICE: 1 - Robert Bruce
(LONG SHOT): 8 - Sadler's Joy
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$100 W/P/S (10)
$20 W/P/S (3)
$10 W/P/S (1)
$10 Exacta Box (10,3,1,8)

Race 11 - $1.5 Million Running of the 150 Belmont Stakes - 1 � Miles (GI)
TOP HORSE: 4 - Hofbug
SECOND CHOICE: 1 - Justify
THIRD CHOICE: 7 - Tenfold
(LONG SHOT): 8 - Vino Rosso
Recommended Bets ($672 Bets)
$100 W/P/S (4)
$40 W/P/S (1)
$10 W/P/S (7)
$10 W/P/S (8)
$10 Exacta Box (4,1,7,8)
$1 Tri 1,4/1,4,7,8/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $36
$1 Tri 1,4,7,8/1,4/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Conte #8 Vinno Rosso #7 Tenfold #1 justify #9 Noble Indy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco Belmont plays

Total Trifecta Wagers = $207.50

$1 Trifecta 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $100
$1 Trifecta 1, with 3,4,7,8,9,10 with 3,4,7,8,9,10 = $30
$1 Trifecta 1, with 4,7, with ALL = $16
$1 Trifecta 1, with 4,7, with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $10
.50 Cent 3,4,7,8,9,10 with 1, with 3,4,7,8,9,10 = $15
.50 Cent 1,4,7, with 1,3,4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $22.50
.50 Cent 4,7 with 1, with ALL = $8
.50 Cent 4,7 with 1, with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $5

Total Exacta Wagers = $150

$16 Exacta 1 with 4,7 = $32
$7 Exacta 4,7 with 1 = $14
$10 Exacta 1 with 3,8 = $20
$5 Exacta 3,8 with 1 = $10
$7 Exacta 1 with 9,10 = $14
$3 Exacta 9,10 with 1 = $6
$3 4,7 with 3,4,7,8 = $18
$2 3,4,7,8 with 4,7 = $12
$2 Exacta Box 3,4,7,8 = $24

Total Superfecta Wagers = $54

.10 Cent Superfecta 1,4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8 with ALL = $25.20
.10 Cent Superfecta 1,4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $14.40
.10 Cent Superfecta 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8,9,10 = $14.40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO BELMONT STAKES PICKS:
2018 BELMONT STAKES
6:30 p.m., Saturday, June 9
$10 TRIFECTA: No. 1 Justify OVER No. 2 Free Drop Billy, No. 5 Restoring Hope, No. 7 Tenfold, No. 8 Vino Rosso, No. 9 Noble Indy and No. 10 Blended Citizen OVER No. 2, No. 3 Bravazo, No. 4 Hofburg, No. 5 Restoring Hope, No. 6 Gronkowski, No. 7 Tenfold, No. 8 Vino Rosso, No. 9 Noble Indy, No. 10 Blended Citizen
TOTAL WAGER: $480
ONLINE PROPS WAGER - $150: Saddlecloth of winning horse is ODD (-260)
TOTAL WAGER: $390
Also, the odds are going to go a bit haywire overnight and on race day. By 4 p.m. EST I would suggest putting down $20 on every horse that is 20-to-1 or higher. As of when he wrote this, that would be $20 TO WIN on Free Drop Billy, Restoring Hope and Noble Indy.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAPHAEL ESPARZA (VSI) BELMONT STAKES PICKS:
Belmont Park Selections for Saturday, June 9, 2018
Belmont Park
Race 8 - $700K Running of the Longines Just a Game Stakes - 1 Mile (GI)
TOP HORSE: 3 - Off Limits
SECOND CHOICE: 7 - A Raving Beauty
THIRD CHOICE: 1 - On Leave
(LONG SHOT): 4 - Lull
Recommended Bets ($378 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (3)
$20 W/P/S (7)
$10 W/P/S (1)
$10 Exacta Box (3-7-1-4)
$1 Tri 3,7/1,3,7,4/1,3,7,4,5,8 $24
$1 Tri 1,3,4,7/3,7/1,3,7,4,5,8 $24

Race 9 - $1.2 Million Running of the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap - 1 Mile (GI)
TOP HORSE: 1 - Mind Your Biscuits
SECOND CHOICE: 10 - Bee Jersey
THIRD CHOICE: 5 - Good Samaritan
(LONG SHOT): 3 - Limousine Liberal
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$40 W/P/S (1)
$20 W/P/S (10)
$10 W/P/S (5)
$10 Exacta Box (1-10-5-3)

Race 10 - $1 Million Running of the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes - 1 1/4 Miles (GI)
TOP HORSE: 10 - Beach Patrol
SECOND CHOICE: 3 - Hi Happy
THIRD CHOICE: 1 - Robert Bruce
(LONG SHOT): 8 - Sadler's Joy
Recommended Bets ($330 Bets)
$100 W/P/S (10)
$20 W/P/S (3)
$10 W/P/S (1)
$10 Exacta Box (10,3,1,8)

Race 11 - $1.5 Million Running of the 150 Belmont Stakes - 1 Miles (GI)
TOP HORSE: 4 - Hofbug
SECOND CHOICE: 1 - Justify
THIRD CHOICE: 7 - Tenfold
(LONG SHOT): 8 - Vino Rosso
Recommended Bets ($672 Bets)
$100 W/P/S (4)
$40 W/P/S (1)
$10 W/P/S (7)
$10 W/P/S (8)
$10 Exacta Box (4,1,7,8)
$1 Tri 1,4/1,4,7,8/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $36
$1 Tri 1,4,7,8/1,4/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10 $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dick Jerdi

1,4,8,7

[New York Knight]

Plays from Against the Number ...

Against the Number is a community of licensed Bookmaker (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bookmaker.eu%2F%3Fcmpid %3D4437)s and odds makers, professional sports handicappers, sports writers and sports enthusiasts.



Race 11 Grade I Belmont

Vino Rosso (8): Had an absolute awful trip from the get go in the Derby and will be super live here for a trainer who excels going Derby to Belmont. The owner has gone on the record saying Nobel Indy will push Justify to set it up for him. He’s one of a few who should relish the distance.

Hofburg (4): Another who had a bad trip in the derby, the longer for him the better it will be. His last work on the Oklahoma was super impressive.

Justify (1): Let’s not go overboard here. While he’s my third pick, he will be on every pick 4 or 5 I play. He has done nothing wrong, winning all five of his career starts. A special horse but I am still dubious he can get the distance if he’s forced to be used early from the rail.

Blended Citizen (10): My big price that will be on all plays. He has the win over the track and should enjoy the distance. One concern with him is his style doesn’t typically win the Belmont.

[New York Knight]

FYI ...


Justify trainer Bob Baffert is 2 for 2 today, as Hoppertunity wins The Brooklyn ...


2017-2018 at Belmont Park ... Baffert is 6-for-10 in stakes races, including 4 for 4 on Belmont Stakes day last year ... 2 for 2 today

[New York Knight]

Belmont Stakes
from Jack Jones



Win: No. 4 Hofburg (9/2)

Many handicappers have made Hofburg the second favorite for the Belmont, and for good reason. He is a son of Tapit, who as stated with Tenfold, has produced three of the past four Belmont Stakes winners. Pedigree matters in the Belmont more than any other Triple Crown race.

After finishing second to Audible in the Florida Derby, Hofburg then finished a disappointing 7th in the Kentucky Derby, 8 3/4 lengths behind Justify. But he was steadied twice on the far turn due to traffic trouble. By the hime jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. had him positioned where he wanted for the stretch run, he was already 17 lengths behind. So he made up 8 1/4 lengths down the stretch, which is a great sign heading into the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.

Hofburg posted a 99 speed figure toward the end of the race, indicating he had plenty left in the tank for a longer run. That combination of speed and stamina fits perfectly with past winners of the Belmont. And he’s rested after skipping the Preakness, which cannot be said of Justify, Bravazo and Tenfold, which is a huge advantage. I think Hofburg will win the Belmont Stakes and spoil Justify’s Triple Crown bid.


Place: No. 3 Bravazo (8/1)

I had Bravazo in my exotics in the Preakness Stakes because I saw a horse with a lot of potential. He had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby and really outperformed his odds. He did the same in the Preakness Stakes, finishing 2nd to Justify by less than a length at 15/1 odds. He closed strong and if that race was 1 1/2 miles instead of 1 1/4, he would have won.

Bravazo’s sire is Awesome Again, who won the Queen’s Plate at 1 1/4 miles and also posted victories in the Saratoga Handicap and the Breeder’s Cup Classic at age 4. Bravazo’s broodmare sire is Cee’s Tizzy, who is bread for the distance and finished second in the San Luis Ray Stakes at 1 1/2 miles.

Bravazo has the speed to get the job done, too. He posted triple-digit Brisnet pace figures as a three-year old in both the Louisiana Derby (103) and Preakness (101). The average Belmont winner has produced a 102 speed figure. Look for Bravazo to close very hard down the stretch and gain ground just as he did in the Preakness.


Show: No. 7 Tenfold (12/1)

Tenfold surprised everyone in the Preakness Stakes by finishing 3rd at 25/1 odds, a nose behind Bravazo and less than a length behind Justify. Like Bravazo, he closed strong and would have passed Justify had the race been 1 1/2 miles like the Belmont is.

The pedigree is my favorite thing about Tenfold. He is by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who lose the 2007 Belmont Stakes by a nose to filly Rags to Riches. He is also out of a mare by Tapit, who has sired three of the past four Belmont Stakes winners. The only exception was Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.

This is a colt that is improving rapidly. In his last four races, he has posted speed figures of 92, 93, 94 and 97. That 97 at Pimlico in the Preakness was a career best, and he is primed to keep improving at his preferred distance of 1 1/2 miles.



Exotics

Exacta Box: 3-4-7-10 ($2 costs $24)

Trifecta Box: 3-4-7-10 ($2 costs $48)

Superfecta Box: 3-4-7-10 ($1 costs $24)

From a wagering perspective, this is one of those rare occasions where I believe you can win a massive amount of money. That’s why I’m completely throwing out Justify, whose margin of victory has gotten smaller with each race, beating both Bravazo and Tenfold by less than a lengthy in the Preakness Stakes. I simply feel Justify runs out of gas here.

My favorite three horses are obviously Bravazo, Tenfold and Hofburg in that order. The one horse I think that could hit the board outside those four is Blended Citizen, who is coming off a career-best run in the Peter Pan at Belmont. He is familiar with the track and I would love to see him finish out our Superfecta.

For only $96 wagered, if you hit all three of these exotic bets you will win thousands of dollars back. It’s worth a shot throwing out Justify and going for the big payout in the Belmont.

[New York Knight]

10 of last 19 Belmonts have been won by a horse that started the Derby then skipped the Preakness.

just 1 of the 10 finished better than 4th in Derby – Empire Maker in 2003. Rags to Riches also won Oaks, then Belmont on same rest schedule, so could say 11 of 19.

[New York Knight]

Since Spectacular Bid in 1979, there have been nine odds-on favorites in the Belmont.

Only American Pharoah in 2015 won the race.

Three finished second (Sunday Silence, Real Quiet, Smarty Jones)