Thursday 10-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $62,500.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $80,000.00 PURSE

#4 KATHRYN THE WISE
#5 PLAY UNIFIED
#3 SPECIAL RELATIVITY
#2 PACIFIC GALE

#4 KATHRYN THE WISE takes a class drop (-6), is both the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this 6. furlong sprint. She's undefeated in a three race career, winning each in "POWER RUN FASHION," and gets a return ride from Jockey Irad Ortiz. Ortiz was in her irons for each of those "Circle Trips," and guns for a "Grand Slam Win" this afternoon. The only thing that I don't like about this entry is the fact that she has not raced in some 492 days, which makes this event today a prime candidate for a boxed exotic ticket. The 6-1 shot, #6 PLAY UNIFIED, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," also drops in class (-6), has produced "POWER RUNS" in four of her last five starts, hitting the board in three, winning twice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:29pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 THOMAS EDWARD (ML=4/1)
#8 LIL LULU (ML=10/1)


THOMAS EDWARD - My handicapping 'sense' tells me to be ready for this thoroughbred in this clash LIL LULU - Forgive the out of the top three finish on the off track in the last race. Without the slop, has a good shot in today's race. This gelding gets a weight break of -7 pounds from last race. Its possible this could make the difference in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 HONOR FOUND (ML=5/2), #6 RETIREMENT PLAN C (ML=3/1), #5 DALES SHADOW (ML=8/1),

HONOR FOUND - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he comes up short frequently. RETIREMENT PLAN C - This mount showed very liitle last out finishing fourth. Don't see any hint of any betterment today. Don't believe this entrant will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure. DALES SHADOW - I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the task finished from time to time. Finished first in his most recent performance with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #4 THOMAS EDWARD to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
Finger Lakes - Race 1

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * PICK 3 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 1-2-3) * PICK 4 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 1-2-3-4) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 1-2)


Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $12,100 • Post: 1:10P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * IMPERFECT UNION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TENACIOUS ROSE: Today i s a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DOYLE THE WARRIOR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PRINCESS GIAVANNA: Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. SCATBACK: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
3
IMPERFECT UNION
6/5

4/1
5
TENACIOUS ROSE
5/1

7/1
6
DOYLE THE WARRIOR
8/1

7/1
2
PRINCESS GIAVANNA
7/2

9/1
1
SCATBACK
9/2

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
DOYLE THE WARRIOR
7

8/1
Front-runner
52

54

70.2

51.2

44.2
3
IMPERFECT UNION
2

6/5
Front-runner
59

66

68.5

61.7

59.7
1
SCATBACK
4

9/2
Front-runner
57

53

54.2

49.2

40.7
2
PRINCESS GIAVANNA
1

7/2
Stalker
60

57

40.0

52.0

46.0
5
TENACIOUS ROSE
6

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
67

58

58.6

53.0

46.0
1A
CHENAIS' POSSE
5

9/2
Alternator/Non-contender
57

52

66.1

47.9

36.4
4
APPEALING MUSIC
3

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
56

48

34.6

36.2

24.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park West
Gulfstream Park West - Race 5

$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8) / $1 Super Hi 5


SO $35,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 3:25P
(RAIL AT 15 FEET). FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $35,000 OR LESS OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $35,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SUSIKIN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). CORN OFF THE COB: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning dist ance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TOWA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface. VALKYRIE GOLD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
SUSIKIN
5/2

9/2
8
CORN OFF THE COB
4/1

7/1
4
TOWA
7/2

7/1
5
VALKYRIE GOLD
8/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
TOWA
4

7/2
Front-runner
69

70

100.4

66.8

56.3
5
VALKYRIE GOLD
5

8/1
Front-runner
79

66

84.1

62.3

56.8
1
NONCENTS
1

5/1
Front-runner
67

62

83.4

58.8

50.8
7
ARTS AND CRAFTS
7

6/1
Front-runner
66

69

57.7

61.5

53.5
8
CORN OFF THE COB
8

4/1
Stalker
67

72

59.6

68.7

63.2
3
SUSIKIN
3

5/2
Trailer
71

69

73.0

65.4

61.4
2
SHE'S UNBRIDLED
2

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
66

57

62.6

44.4

32.9
6
MARY LEE AND ME
6

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
57

44

49.6

39.0

23.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - SO - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 BENEVOLENT PRINCE 4/1

# 9 MARYLAND PRIDE 7/2

# 12 HYPERLAPSE (IRE) 20/1

BENEVOLENT PRINCE looks to be a formidable contender. Should compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses. With a very good 87 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this competition. With a reliable 87 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. MARYLAND PRIDE - Has been running soundly and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Looks very good to be on the front end at the first call. HYPERLAPSE (IRE) - The Lasix change (on Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this gelding. The average class figure of 80 makes this horse difficult to beat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:17pm - Starter Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,200 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 JERSEY RICH (ML=8/1)
#5 PLUS PERFECT (ML=6/1)
#4 ASK ME I MIGHT (ML=3/1)


JERSEY RICH - I like when a thoroughbred has dropped in class at least 5 class ratings pts like this one did last out and then runs against a similar field right back. Popovich must've found the right class level. It looks like Panaijo had to know this filly on September 22nd when riding her for the first time. Back on board again today. Look for this filly to show much better right here. Last race at Meadowlands finishing sixth on the soft turf is no sign of her true talent. PLUS PERFECT - You always have to be on the watch for money making jock/trainer duos; we have it right here. Ran a lackluster race at Penn National in the last race. Racing on a fast track puts this mare at the top of my contenders list. ASK ME I MIGHT - A mare like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. This thoroughbred coming off a good effort in the last month is a strong challenger in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PINK PRINCESS (ML=3/2), #3 DANCIN DEBBIE (ML=5/1), #6 WOLFIE (ML=8/1),

PINK PRINCESS - Has tasted defeat as the chalk the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. DANCIN DEBBIE - Really don't think the most recent speed figure was obtained legitimately. The off conditions may have lead to such a high rating.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 JERSEY RICH is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 65

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 11 TROPHY DOLL (IRE) 5/2

# 10 LIP SYNC 8/1

# 8 MUSIC MAKER 4/1

TROPHY DOLL (IRE) is my choice. The class rating of today's race is much lower than her last race. She has respectable class ratings, averaging 89, and has to be considered here. With a strong jockey who has won at a very good 25 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. LIP SYNC - Trainers don't bring racers back this soon just for exercise. Stabile and Dominguez have won 16 percent of their races giving this racer a strong chance. MUSIC MAKER - Formidable average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid contender. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

10/04/18, SA, Race 8, 4.37 PT
7F [Dirt] 1.19.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $18,000.
Claiming Price $20,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
$1 Exacta /$0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) - $1 Rolling Super High 5
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 71.43, $1 ROI 1.81, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 4 Gotnoquit 10-1 Figueroa H Puype Mike JTS
097.3998 11 For the Hustle 8-1 Maldonado E A Headley Bruce L
096.6578 8 Bartlett Hall 7/2 Pereira T J Shirreffs John A. F
096.0449 6 Thefourfortyfourth 5-1 Espinoza A Headley Karen W
095.5739 12 Vegas Itch 6-1 Ceballos F Papaprodromou George
095.5453 2 Powerful Thirst 10-1 Fuentes R Lerner Andrew E
094.4741 13 Pulpit's Dirty Red 10-1 Roman E A Eurton Peter
094.0004 9 Boogie 20-1 Desormeaux K J Higgins Jacqueline R.
093.7159 3 Victor's Show 8-1 Conner T Harty Eoin G.
092.9201 5 Achieved 20-1 Donoe M V Herrick Joe
092.6476 7 Supreme Giant 10-1 Fuentes L A Gonzalez Sal
092.3298 1 Smokin B 12-1 Baze T Carava Jack
091.6371 10 Skagit River 30-1 Payeras E Harrington Patricia C

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 2nd October 2018 by Gracenote
Colts vs. Patriots Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/02/2018

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will see a familiar face re-enter the huddle as trusted wideout Julian Edelman returns from a four-game suspension for Thursday's game against the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Edelman, who was banned for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy, rolled up a career-best 1,106 receiving yards in 2016 before a preseason knee injury caused him to miss the 2017 campaign.

"I know he was itching to go and he wants to get down there and show everyone that he's ready to go," said Brady, who struggled to find chemistry with his wide receivers in the first three contests before former Colt Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson each reeled in a touchdown reception in a 38-7 romp over Miami on Sunday. A three-time NFL Most Valuable Player, Brady ranks outside the top 20 in completion percentage (64.4 percent; 21st among QBs), passing yards per game (230; 24th) and yards per attempt (6.8; tied for 27th). Colts quarterback Andrew Luck rebounded from a pair of subpar performances to complete 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 37-34 overtime setback to Houston. Luck, however, owns an 0-5 career mark versus New England and has completed just 48 percent of his pass attempts and thrown nine interceptions in three games at Foxborough, Mass.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Patriots -10. O/U: 51.5

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-3): Luck likely is to be without star wideout T.Y. Hilton (chest, hamstring) on Thursday and will look to distribute the ball to a wide receiver corps considering of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal. The former top overall pick has found a convenient outlet in running back Nyhiem Hines (team-leading 22 catches), who led the club with nine receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns last week. Eric Ebron has made the most of fellow tight end Jack Doyle's absence due to injury by reeling in a team-leading three touchdown receptions in his last four games. Indianapolis has gotten next-to-nil from its 29th-ranked ground game, however, with Jordan Wilkins leading the club with just 136 rushing yards.



ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): While Edelman is guaranteed to be in the huddle, Rob Gronkowski isn't a slam dunk to be by his side as the mammoth tight end deals with an ankle injury. The 29-year-old Gronkowski, who reportedly was absent from Tuesday's walk-through, leads the Patriots with 233 receiving yards in four games and his 17 catches are second on the team to versatile running back James White. Speaking of running backs, Sony Michel answered a pair of lackluster performances with a stellar one on Sunday, as he rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. Michel became the second Patriots running back to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game since 2016 -- joining Dion Lewis, who did it twice in 2017.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Indianapolis K Adam Vinatieri, a former Patriots legend, is nursing a sore groin and did not practice on Tuesday.

2. New England CB Stephon Gilmore shares the team lead with four passes defensed, although he doesn't have one in ether of his last two games.

3. Colts rookie LB Darius Leonard has an NFL-best 54 tackles while LB Kyle Van Noy leads the Patriots with just 20.

PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Colts 14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in MLB

MLB Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Rockies vs. Brewers Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The well-traveled Colorado Rockies play in their fourth city in five days when they open the best-of-five National League Division Series against the host Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday. The Rockies reached the NLDS by outlasting the Chicago Cubs in 13 innings in Tuesday's classic wild-card game while the red-hot Brewers are the NL Central champions.

Colorado finished the regular season at home Sunday and lost at the Los Angeles Dodgers in a division tiebreaker Monday before posting the epic 2-1 victory in Chicago on Tuesday and arriving in Milwaukee via bus at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning. "I thought that we could do it," Rockies manager Bud Black said of reaching the postseason during his Wednesday press conference. "We could contend and match these teams. And sure enough, we have. It's a current expectation for sure. That's where we want to be." Milwaukee won its division championship in a tiebreaker Monday in Chicago and has won eight straight games and 23 of its last 30 games as it overcame a five-game September deficit. "We've been battling all year long," Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain said at Wednesday's press conference. "Think we were out it, back a few games in September and we found a way to win the division, so that just speaks for itself."

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) vs. Brewers TBA

Senzatela finished strong by going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA during his final three starts. The 23-year-old made 13 starts and 10 relief appearances this season and limited opposing hitters to a .220 average on the road compared to .316 at home. Sentazela's lone appearance against the Brewers came in his major league debut April 6, 2017 when he gave up two hits in five scoreless innings while receiving a no-decision.



Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell indicated at Wednesday's press conference that he will go with an "opener" and make Game 1 a bullpen game. Counsell declined to say who will start the game or would be used, saying the focus is on how "to share the 27 outs," before indicating he will use a traditional approach in Game 2. "We're going to use guys that haven't kind of been our starters this last couple weeks," said Counsell of the Game 1 plan, "so we're going to use a bunch of different guys and still deciding on exactly the order of that scenario."

WALK-OFFS

1. The Brewers went 5-2 against the Rockies in the regular season.

2. Colorado SS Trevor Story batted .333 with seven homers and 18 RBIs - including four four-RBI outings - against the Brewers this season.

3. Milwaukee star OF Christian Yelich batted .370 with 10 homers and 34 RBIs since the first of September to finish the regular season with a NL-best .326 average along with 36 homers and 110 RBIs.

PREDICTION: Brewers 7, Rockies 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in MLB

MLB Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Braves vs. Dodgers Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Los Angeles Dodgers were one victory away from winning the World Series last autumn and after putting in an extra day's work to secure another National League West title, they begin the NL Division Series at home Thursday against the surprising Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers overcame a 16-26 start, then beat Colorado in Monday's play-in game behind homers from Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy to secure a sixth consecutive West crown and take aim at a second straight pennant.

In a curious move, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is pushing Clayton Kershaw back to Friday's Game 2 and will start Hyun-Jin Ryu in the opener, and the Dodgers have a distinct advantage given a lineup featuring Manny Machado, Justin Turner and breakout player Max Muncy. But the Braves are confident their return to the playoffs will turn out differently from their last postseason appearance, a four-game loss to Los Angeles in the 2013 NLDS. Rookie of the year favorite Ronald Acuna, and veterans Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis sparked the NL East champions to a 90-win season, an 18-victory improvement over 2017, and the Braves matched the Dodgers for best road record in the NL at 47-34. Los Angeles won the season series 5-2, outscoring the Braves 35-18 in winning twice at home and three times in Atlanta.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, MLB Network

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97)

Foltynewicz's emergence from promising prospect to NL All-Star is one big reason why Atlanta is in the playoffs, and across his final 11 starts he gave up more than two runs only twice while going 6-3 in that span and holding opponents to a .529 OPS. The 26-year-old, who makes his postseason debut, is 1-1 in two career starts against the Dodgers with a victory last season and a loss in 2018. Foltynewicz finished fifth in the NL in hits per nine innings (6.39), sixth in strikeouts (202) and tied for sixth in ERA.



Ryu has been outstanding since returning from a groin injury that cost him more than three months, posting a 1.88 ERA with five walks and 53 strikeouts in nine games since Aug. 15. The 31-year-old ended the regular season with a flourish, giving up only one run on 12 hits across 19 innings in winning his final three starts. Ryu, who did not face Atlanta this season, has pitched in three postseason games but none since 2014, giving up four runs to the Braves in a start in the 2013 NLDS.

WALK-OFFS

1. Atlanta SS Dansby Swanson (partially torn ligament in left hand) likely will miss the series, forcing former Dodgers INF Charlie Culberson into the starting lineup.

2. Los Angeles RHP Kenley Jansen gave up two solo homers in the ninth inning Monday, but since Aug. 31 is 1-0 with six saves, a 2.70 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings.

3. The Dodgers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 235 homers, led by Muncy's 35.

PREDICTION: Dodgers 4, Braves 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Capitals vs. Penguins Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Washington Capitals made a statement in their season opener that they are not the reigning Stanley Cup champions by accident. They'll attempt to prove that their six-game victory in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs also was no fluke when they visit the Pittsburgh Penguins for a rematch on Thursday.

The Capitals, who had a history of being underachievers in the postseason, shed that tag in 2017-18 as they ousted Columbus, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay before defeating expansion Vegas in five games to claim the first championship in franchise history. Washington got off to a strong start in its defense of that title on Wednesday, extending its winning streak against visiting Boston to 13 games with a dominant 7-0 triumph as Evgeny Kuznetsov scored twice while Braden Holtby made 25 saves. Pittsburgh finished five points behind Metropolitan Division-winning Washington last season but was a force at home, registering a conference-high 30 victories at PPG Paints Arena while finishing below .500 on the road (17-20-4). The Penguins placed three players in the top 10 in league scoring, with Evgeni Malkin leading the club with 98 points (fourth overall) and 42 goals (tied for fourth).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Sportsnet One, Sportsnet 360, TVA, NBCS Washington, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh

ABOUT THE CAPITALS (1-0-0): Kuznetsov, who scored a career-high 27 goals last season, wasn't the only one contributing offensively in the season opener as 12 of the team's 18 skaters landed on the scoresheet. Captain Alex Ovechkin began his quest for his sixth Maurice Richard Trophy in seven seasons and eighth overall as he was one of three Capitals to record a goal and an assist versus Boston. Nicklas Backstrom notched three assists on Wednesday, the first being his 800th career point, to pull within seven of 600 in the NHL.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (2017-18: 47-29-6, 2ND IN METROPOLITAN): Malkin, who came up just short of a fourth career 100-point season, figures to hit some milestones in 2018-19 as he is 30 goals shy of 400, 40 assists away from 600 and needs 70 points for 1,000. Pittsburgh is hoping its inability to win a third straight Stanley Cup coincided with the absence of Matt Cullen as the 41-year-old forward returns to the team after spending last season with Minnesota. The Penguins figure to be stronger defensively with the additions of veteran Jack Johnson, who was signed to a five-year contract, and Juuso Riikola - a 24-year-old Finn who was inked to a one-year deal and opened eyes during training camp.

OVERTIME

1. Penguins captain C Sidney Crosby is entering his 14th season with the team, putting him behind only owner Mario Lemieux (17) in length of tenure in franchise history.

2. Washington will be without F Tom Wilson until late November as the 24-year-old received a 20-game suspension on Wednesday for an illegal check to the head of St. Louis' Oskar Sundqvist in a preseason contest three days earlier.

3. Pittsburgh D Brian Dumoulin (upper body), who was injured in the team's final preseason game, participated in Wednesday's practice and will be a game-time decision.

PREDICTION: Penguins 5, Capitals 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boston Bruins vs. Buffalo Sabres Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Bruins vs. Sabres Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Buffalo Sabres hope to snap their long playoff drought that has reached seven years after an offseason of bold moves, along with the addition of two talented teenagers, and the quest begins Thursday against the visiting Boston Bruins. The Sabres added goaltender Carter Hutton along with forwards Jeff Skinner, Patrik Berglund and Conor Sheary - among others - while 2018 first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin makes his debut and 2017 No. 8 selection Casey Mittelstadt starts his first full season.

Still, the leader of Buffalo's potential revival is center Jack Eichel, who has accumulated 177 points (73 goals) in 209 games over his first three seasons and was officially named captain on Wednesday. "It's an incredible honor," Eichel told reporters. "And I don't think I would have been given this opportunity if it wasn't for the other leaders in this room that have pushed me to be better and taught me a lot about myself. It's an unbelievable feeling and I'm just excited about the season." The Bruins will come to Buffalo angry after being blitzed by defending Stanley Cup-champion Washington 7-0 on Wednesday, allowing four power-play goals in the first 35 minutes, 45 seconds of the contest. Boston leans on its impressive top line of David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, but all three posted a minus-2 rating and combined for seven shots in the season-opening defeat.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), MSG Buffalo

ABOUT THE BRUINS (0-1-0): Tuukka Rask endured a season debut to forget as he surrendered five goals on 19 shots before being pulled while backup Jaroslav Halak stopped 16 of the 18 shots he faced. Coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters the "lack of competitive spirit" was a concern during the opener while second-line center David Krejci and talented young defenseman Charlie McAvoy were held without a shot as Boston registered 25 while allowing 37. Offseason free-agent acquisition John Moore led the Bruins with four shots and fellow blue-liner Kevan Miller recorded a team-high six hits against Washington, but the defense corps will have to be better.

ABOUT THE SABRES (2017-18: 25-45-12, 8TH IN ATLANTIC): Eichel is expected to center Skinner and Sam Reinhart on the top line and Berglund will skate with Sheary and newcomer Tage Thompson while Mittelstadt teams with Vladimir Sobotka and Kyle Okposo. Rasmus Ristolainen and Marco Scandella form the top pair on defense, but all eyes will be on Dahlin after he impressed in the preseason with three points in four games, as he teams up Jake McCabe. "It's going to take some time to learn all the players," the Swedish Dahlin told the Buffalo News. "(On Thursday), I just want to go out there, play my game and do the best I can. I'm focused on the team, on what we can do."

OVERTIME

1. Boston Fs Chris Wagner (three hits) and Joakim Nordstrom (three shots) each made their debuts for the team on Wednesday.

2. Buffalo claimed F Remi Elie, who recorded 14 points and a plus-5 rating in 72 games with Dallas last season, off waivers on Tuesday.

3. The Sabres won three of the four meetings last season after the Bruins swept the four-game series in 2016-17.

PREDICTION: Sabres 4, Bruins 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The New York Islanders are pinning their future on their new arena planned for Long Island in 2021, but first the club must deal with the remnants of the past and filling a cavernous on-ice void. The Islanders open the season at the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night minus longtime captain John Tavares, who left for Toronto via free agency in the offseason.

"John's a great player; it's tough to replace him," reigning Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal said. "But now that's over with. You've got to look ahead. I'm excited for the challenge. We've got a lot of other guys here that I'm assuming are excited to fill a bigger role." Barzal will be the primary player counted upon to take over for Tavares on a team that cleaned house in the offseason and brought in Lou Lamoriello as president of hockey operatons and Barry Trotz as head coach after guiding Washington to the Stanley Cup. The Hurricanes overhauled their roster and also have a change behind the bench, hiring Rod Brind'Amour to replace Bill Peters and hoping it will help end a playoff drought of nine seasons -- the longest run in the league. "I want to play a style that's fun to watch, No. 1, and that means we're going to skate," Brind'Amour said. "I'm not too concerned how we win. If we win 10-9, I'm good. If we win 2-1, that's even better. But we need to be able to play both."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FS Carolina, MSG-Plus (New York)

ABOUT THE HURRICANES (2017-18: 36-35-11, 6TH in METROPOLITAN): Former Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner and fellow forwards Elias Lindholm and Derek Ryan were among a slew of departures while forward Micheal Ferland and defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Calvin deHaan were roster additions. Goaltender Petr Mrazek will shoulder an early load after Scott Darling was hurt in the final preseason game and is expected to miss two weeks. "It's a setback, no doubt. But that's why we got Petr in here, too," Brind'Amour said. "It makes my decision a lot easier on who we're going to throw out there to start on opening night." Sebastian Aho led the team with 29 goals last season.

ABOUT THE ISLANDERS (2017-18: 35-37-10, 7TH in METROPOLITAN): Coming off a season in which he had 22 goals and a team-leading 85 points, Barzal was elevated to the No. 1 center slot previously held by Tavares, who scored 278 goals in his nine seasons. Barzal will center Jordan Eberle and Anthony Beauvillier while Brock Nelson is on the No. 2 line along with 40-goal scorer Anders Lee and 71-point scorer Josh Bailey. Depth is an issue with the bottom-six fowards, hence the signings of veterans Valtteri Filppula and Leo Komarov. New York surrendered a league-worst 296 goals in 2017-18 and needs either Robin Lehner or Thomas Greiss to bolster the goaltending.

OVERTIME

1. Carolina claimed G Curtis McElhinney on waivers from Toronto on Tuesday.

2. Lee has four goals and five assists in nine games versus the Hurricanes over the past two seasons.

3. The Hurricanes were 5-0-1 in the preseason.

PREDICTION: Hurricanes 4, Islanders 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Ottawa Senators Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

Two teams looking to pick themselves up after disastrous seasons will bid to take a positive step at the other's expense on Thursday as the Chicago Blackhawks visit the Ottawa Senators. The injury-riddled Blackhawks missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2007-08 while the Senators answered being one goal from a Stanley Cup Finals appearance by recording their fewest points (67) since mustering just 41 in 1995-96.

Chicago's 2017-18 season went south without Corey Crawford, and fellow goaltender Cam Ward will man the net for the first two weeks as the two-time Stanley Cup champion works his way back from a concussion. The Blackhawks still feature the electric Patrick Kane (team-leading 76 points), although captain Jonathan Toews' 20 goals last season marked his fewest in his 11-year NHL career. Ottawa has undergone significant change with the departure of two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, as the club sent the offensive-minded defenseman to San Jose in a deal that many consider one-sided at best. The Senators also traded away Mike Hoffman in a move that general manager Pierre Dorion admitted was needed given the off-ice drama that involved reports of harassment and cyber-bullying.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, WGN (Chicago), TSN5, RDS (Ottawa)

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (33-39-10, 7TH IN CENTRAL): Brandon Saad experienced ups and downs to begin his second stint with Chicago last season and likely will be paired with Kane and Nick Schmaltz, who matched Alex DeBrincat with 52 points. "(Saad) did some good things (last season)," coach Joel Quenneville said, via the Daily Herald. "I just think there's more to his complete game, whether he's having the puck more or his shot's better, he uses his speed in the right way, be better defensively." DeBrincat (club-best 28 goals) initially will be paired with Toews and free-agent acquisition Chris Kunitz, although Quenneville is notorious for tinkering with his lines. Veteran defensemen Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook took a few steps back last season, but the pair is expected to log considerable minutes in 2018-19.

ABOUT THE SENATORS (28-32-11, 7TH IN ATLANTIC): Mikkel Boedker was acquired from the Sharks in a four-player trade in the summer to join Mark Stone (team co-leading 62 points) and Matt Duchene (club co-leading 23 goals) on the top line. Bobby Ryan provides veteran leadership, although the team is looking for Colin White, Brady Tkachuk and Alex Formenton to carry the club down the road. Tkachuk, who is Ottawa's first-round pick of the 2018 NHL Draft, will sit out Thursday's contest with a groin injury. Cody Ceci and Thomas Chabot likely will need to step up as the team's top pair of blue-liners in front of Craig Anderson, who saw his goals-against average balloon to 3.32 last season.

OVERTIME

1. Kane collected two goals and five assists in two contests against the Senators in 2017-18.

2. Stone scored 14 of his 20 goals at home last season.

3. Chicago (15.9 percent) and Ottawa (16.6) featured the NHL's fourth- and fifth-worst power plays in the NHL last season.

PREDICTION: Blackhawks 4, Senators 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nashville Predators vs. New York Rangers Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Predators vs. Rangers Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Nashville Predators have ascended into the upper echelon of NHL teams while the New York Rangers have slipped out of that group and face a steep climb to find their way back. The Predators are among the favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup as they prepare to kick off the season against the rebuilding Rangers on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

Nashville made a surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016-17 and proved it was no fluke by winning the Presidents' Trophy last season, only to be bounced in the second round of the playoffs by Winnipeg -- which had the league's second-highest point total. "I think we've taken some steps in the right direction," Predators coach Peter Laviolette said. "There's some good things that we've done. There's some positive things that we've done. But at the end of the day, it's about winning that last game and being ahead until the last minute of a season ticks off." Meanwhile, the Rangers tumbled to the bottom of the Metropolitan Division following three straight 100-point seasons and started their roster overhaul with a flurry of deals leading up to the trade deadline last season. "It's a honeymoon for everybody right now," said first-year coach David Quinn, who was hired away from Boston University to replace Alain Vigneault and oversee the expected growing pains. "I'm fully aware of that."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, MSG (New York)

ABOUT THE PREDATORS (2017-18: 53-18-11, 1ST IN CENTRAL): Having the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a defensive corps that is the envy of most NHL teams is reason enough for lofty expectations. Netminder Pekka Rinne struggled mightily in the postseason versus Winnipeg but Nashville has a capable backup in fellow Finn Juuse Saros, who had a .925 save percentage last season. Both goalies have the luxury of being fronted by a blue-line unit that added Dan Hamhuis to the stellar foursome of P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm. Filip Forsbeg and Viktor Arvidsson flank Ryan Johansen on a top-flight No. 1 line while Kevin Fiala is coming off a 23-goal season.

ABOUT THE RANGERS (2017-18: 34-39-9, 8TH in METROPOLITAN): Henrik Lundqvist has been the one constant for New York since he arrived on Broadway, but he is now 36 and posted the worst goals-against average (2.98) of his career last season. "I've used this training camp to go back to my roots by being patient, playing deep in my net," Lundqvist said. "It's what I trust. It's my game. It's who I always was as a goalie." Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich form the No. 1 line for a team that is hoping for the emergence of young centers Filip Chytil and Brett Howden. Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk will be counted on after playing in just 46 games last season.

OVERTIME

1. Rinne was 17-7-2 with a 2.07 GAA on the road last season.

2. Zibanejad notched a career-high 27 goals last season, including 14 on the power play.

3. Nashville scored 10 short-handed goals last season -- twice as many as New York.

PREDICTION: Rangers 3, Predators 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Detroit Red Wings Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Columbus Blue Jackets visit the Detroit Red Wings in the season opener for both teams Thursday night and the story is more about who won't be on the ice than the players that will be there. Standout defenseman Seth Jones of Columbus is lost for about another month with a knee injury while the Red Wings could be missing three of their top six on the blue line, and captain Henrik Zetterberg will drop the ceremonial first puck after retiring recently.

The Blue Jackets come in with high expectations after another playoff disappointment, losing to eventual Stanley Cup champion Washington in the first round after winning the first two games on the road. Columbus returns much of the same group, including leading scorer Artemi Panarin (27 goals, 82 points), but the talented forward did not sign a contract extension in the offseason and could be traded at some point if a deal cannot be worked out. Detroit has missed the playoffs the last two seasons after a string of 25 straight postseason appearances and must replace the production and fill the leadership void left by the departure of Zetterberg (960 career points, 56 in 2017-18). Red Wings veteran defensemen Mike Green (virus) and Niklas Kronwall (undisclosed) have been ruled out for the season opener and fellow blue liner Jonathan Ericsson (upper-body) is doubtful while Trevor Daley is expected to play despite being banged up in the preseason.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FS Ohio (Columbus), FS Detroit

ABOUT THE BLUE JACKETS (2017-2018: 45-30-7): Columbus will also be without top six defenseman Ryan Murray (lower-body), and Zach Werenski will lead the blue line after recording 16 goals last season. Center Riley Nash and wing Anthony Duclair were added to the forward corps and the Blue Jackets hope young players such as center Pierre-Luc Dubois can take a step forward. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky returns after another strong season in which he posted 37 wins along with a 2.42 goals against average and .921 save percentage.

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (2017-18: 30-39-13): Defensemen Joe Hicketts and Filip Hronek were assigned to the American Hockey League but will likely be back because of the injuries and two other rookie blue liners - Libor Sulak and Dennis Cholowski - could be in the lineup for opening night. "Cholowski showed me more than I realized he had on the power play with the poise and some of the plays he made," coach Jeff Blashill told the Detroit Free Press of the former first-round pick. Center Dylan Larkin returns with a brand new five-year contract after leading the team with 63 points (16 goals) while Anthony Mantha hopes to move forward after a career-best 24 goals in 2017-18.

OVERTIME

1. Bobrovsky played in a career-high 65 games last season and is 12-4-1 (3-0 in 2017-18) against the Red Wings with a 1.98 GAA.

2. Detroit F Michael Rasmussen, the ninth overall pick in 2017, is expected to make his NHL debut Thursday.

3. Red Wings G Jimmy Howard returns after an up and down season (22-27-9, 2.85 GAA) and G Jonathan Bernier was brought in as a free agent.

PREDICTION: Red Wings 4, Blue Jackets 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Jets vs. Blues Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The magical run to last season's Western Conference final by the Winnipeg Jets marked the most successful season in franchise history, but they enter Thursday's season opener at the St. Louis Blues with tremendous expectations. The Jets have emerged from a long rebuild and enter 2018-19 as a bona fide Stanley Cup contender, with center Mark Scheifele, forwards Blake Wheeler and Patrik Laine, and goaltender Connor Hellebuyck poised for ever bigger things.

"There's going to be way more adversity this season than people think we should have," Jets coach Paul Maurice told reporters in the preseason, knowing his team will get everybody's best shot one season after finishing with 114 points and falling three wins shy of the finals. "We're going to have to handle that in-house, and that's the big chunk of my job this year." There is plenty of optimism in St. Louis that several key additions will bolster the Blues' scoring, and hopefully lift the team from fifth place to a better finish in the ultra-tough Central Division. The Blues added center Ryan O'Reilly, forward David Perron and center Tyler Bozak, a trio who totaled 51 goals and 170 points a season ago and should pay dividends immediately on the power play, where St. Louis finished 30th. "I believe we have the depth and the quality of forwards now that we can put two solid power-play units together," St. Louis coach Mike Yeo told the media in preseason.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TSN3 (Winnipeg), FS Midwest (St. Louis)

ABOUT THE JETS (2017-18: 52-20-10): Hellebuyck's emergence from potential NHL starter to Vezina Trophy finalist a season ago was one of the biggest reasons for Winnipeg's breakthrough season, as he finished tied for the league lead with 44 wins while posting a 2.36 goals against average and a career-best .924 save percentage. Laine emerged as an emerging superstar with 44 goals, while Wheeler tied for the league lead with 68 assists and finished with 91 points. One area of concern is the departure of second-line center Paul Stastny, acquired from the Blues at the trade deadline, who signed this summer with Vegas.

ABOUT THE BLUES (2017-18: 44-32-6): One of the biggest keys to the season is better play from Jake Allen in net, after he finished the season 9-13-1 with a 2.99 goals against average and .896 save percentage in the 2018 portion of the schedule. St. Louis returns forward Vladimir Tarasenko (33 goals), center Brayden Schenn (28 goals, 42 assists) and forward Jaden Schwartz (24 goals), and figure to be much more potent offensively. The Blues seek more consistent play considering at one point they led the NHL in points with a 16-5-1 record before earning just 15 points in their next 18 contests.

OVERTIME

1. The Jets have the NHL's best record since March 15, 2017, going 62-22-10.

2. St. Louis C Robert Thomas, a 19-year-old considered one of the top prospects in the organization, made the opening-night roster after recording a goal and three assists in preseason.

3. The two teams split their four-game series last season, but Winnipeg has won eight of the last 10 meetings while outscoring the Blues 32-18 in that span.

PREDICTION: Jets 4, Blues 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona Coyotes vs. Dallas Stars Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Coyotes vs. Stars Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

Jim Montgomery is champing at the bit to make his NHL coaching debut as his Dallas Stars host the Arizona Coyotes on Thursday in the season opener for both teams. Montgomery spent five seasons with Denver in the NCAA before taking over for the retired Ken Hitchcock as coach of the Stars, who have missed the playoffs in eight of the last 10 years.

"Excitement (is what I expect from my NHL debut)," Montgomery said. "I'm going to have the (arm)pits going and I'm going to be nervous, and I'm going to be having fun with it." Tyler Seguin (team-high 40 goals), captain Jamie Benn (36 goals, club-best 79 points) and Alexander Radulov (27 goals) likely will make opposing defenses sweat as the dynamic top line accounted for 45 percent of Dallas' goals last season and 64 percent of its power-play tallies. Arizona is hoping to avoid a pitiful start that doomed its campaign in 2017-18, as it dropped its first 11 games and 18 of 20 (2-15-3). Facing Dallas isn't a recipe for success for the Coyotes, who have lost seven straight to the Stars and are 0-7-3 in their last 10 games in the Lone Star State.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, FS Arizona, FS Southwest (Dallas)

ABOUT THE COYOTES (29-41-12, 8TH IN PACIFIC): Clayton Keller finished third in the Calder Trophy voting last season after scoring a team-best 23 goals to go along with 42 assists, which tied Derek Stepan for top honors. The 20-year-old Keller will join fellow young forwards Brendan Perlini and Christian Fischer in looking to improve the 30th-ranked offense of an Arizona club that shuffled Maxi Domi to Montreal for Alex Galchenyuk. Puck-moving defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who logged a team-best 23:41 of ice time, looks to pay dividends after signing an eight-year contract extension. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Alex Goligoski will lead a promising defensive corps in front of Antti Raanta, who posted a .930 save percentage during an injury-riddled season in 2017-18.

ABOUT THE STARS (42-32-8, 6TH IN CENTRAL): John Klingberg (club-best 59 assists) is one of the league's best pure-scoring defensemen and Miro Heiskanen is a top-tier prospect, but Dallas doesn't have much for which to speak along its back end. While Esa Lindell was an impressive plus-19 last season, Dan Hamhuis departed to Nashville and Marc Methot and Roman Polak likely won't log significant minutes. Ben Bishop posted a 26-17-5 mark with a 2.49 goals-against average and .916 save percentage last season, but the towering goaltender will have Anton Khudobin looking for more playing time after signing a two-year contract in July.

OVERTIME

1. Arizona F Dylan Strome, who was the third overall pick of the 2015 NHL Draft, recorded 53 points in 50 games split between the NHL and Tucson of the American Hockey League.

2. Dallas C Jason Spezza, 35, scored just eight goals last season after erupting for 33 during the 2015-16 campaign.

3. The Coyotes finished 26th on the power play (16.9 percent) last season.

PREDICTION: Stars 6, Coyotes 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Wild vs. Avalanche Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Colorado Avalanche made one of the more dramatic improvements in league history in 2017-18, almost doubling their point total from the previous season. That was good for a playoff slot and fourth place in the top-heavy Central Division, six points behind the Minnesota Wild, who visit the Avalanche on Thursday night in the season opener for both teams.

Colorado went from a league-worst 48 points in 2016-17 to 95 last season, buoyed by its stellar play at home down the stretch and its top line of Nathan MacKinnon, captain Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. "Our expectation is to make the playoffs," Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. "I know it's very difficult to do in the Central Division, but I feel like there's no reason why we can't be where we were last year. ... We have to raise the bar." The Wild share a similar sentiment -- they have reached the playoffs for the past six seasons but bowed out in the first round in each of the past three. "It's been pretty disappointing the way we've finished the last two seasons," Minnesota forward Zach Parise said. "We're not oblivious to that. We know we have to make something happen."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, FS North, FS Wisconsin (Minnesota), Altitude (Colorado)

ABOUT THE WILD (2017-18: 53-18-11, 3RD IN CENTRAL): Eric Staal has been reborn since joining Minnesota, scoring 28 goals in 2016-17 and following that up with 42 goals last season -- his highest total since 2005-06. He will join Jason Zucker (career-best 33 goals) and Mikael Granlund on the No. 1 line while a healthy Zach Parise will be alongside Nino Niederreiter and captain Mikko Koivu. Defenseman Ryan Suter missed the playoffs with a broken ankle after tying his career high with 51 points and is joined on the blue line by another 50-point scorer in Matt Dumba. Devan Dubnyk has registered 20 of his 29 career shutouts in 3 1/2 seasons with Minnesota.

ABOUT THE AVALANCHE (2017-18: 53-18-11, 4TH IN CENTRAL): MacKinnon finally lived up to the promise that led Colorado to draft him No. 1 overall in 2013, finishing fifth in the league with 97 points and netting 39 goals. Rantanen and Landeskog added 29 and 25 goals, respectively, so it's paramount that the Avalanche receive production from second-year forwards Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Jost, who are expected to be paired with Colin Wilson. Defenseman Tyson Barrie had a career-best 57 points for Colorado, which added stability in net with the acquisition of Philipp Grubauer. Starter Semyon Varlamov has struggled to stay healthy, missing the playoffs last season.

OVERTIME

1. MacKinnon torched the Wild for four goals and nine points in four games last season.

2. Parise scored 12 goals in the final 18 games last season.

3. Colorado outscored Minnesota 19-4 in winning the last three meetings.

PREDICTION: Avalanche 4, Wild 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Vegas Golden Knights Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NHL

NHL Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Flyers vs. Golden Knights Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The fairy-tale expansion season of the Vegas Golden Knights perhaps was so far-fetched that Hollywood likely would have rejected the script on the basis that it stretched the boundaries of believability. After capturing the sports world by storm, the Golden Knights aim to take the first steps toward a return trip to the Stanley Cup Finals on Thursday when they open the 2018-19 campaign against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers.

"I think there's more expectations from the players, the staff and the fans. I think everybody expects us to do as well," goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury said. "At the same time, though, if you want to have success, we can't be thinking about all that stuff. You've just got to be worrying about playing your game the way you can and success will come." The 33-year-old Fleury set Sin City on fire last season with career-best marks in goals-against average (.2.24) and save percentage (.927) and has flustered Philadelphia to the tune of a 28-18-2 career record. The Flyers enter his season with James van Riemsdyk (career-high 36 goals) rejoining the club to solidify an impressive top six, although the team's age-old question of goaltending remains in play until prized prospect Carter Hart is ready to be elevated from the minors. Brian Elliott is expected to garner the majority of time between the pipes for the Flyers, who were bounced in the first round by their Keystone State-rival Pittsburgh Penguins last season.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, NBCSN, Sportsnet, Sportsnet360, Sportsnet1, TVAS, NBCS Philadelphia

ABOUT THE FLYERS (42-26-14, 3RD IN METROPOLITAN): Van Riemsdyk signed a five-year contract with Philadelphia this summer to reunite and with captain Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier and Wayne Simmonds, with whom he played during his first three seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. The 29-year-old van Riemsdyk will play on a line with last year's No. 2 pick of the NHL Draft in Nolan Patrick as well as Voracek. Travis Konecny likely will slot on the first line with Giroux (102 points) and Couturier, who set career highs in goals (31), assists (45) and points (76) before falling just short in the voting for the Selke Trophy. "(Playing with Couturier and Giroux) gave me the confidence to make plays and not be afraid to try to step up and maybe make a big play," Konecny said.

ABOUT THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS (51-24-7, 1ST IN PACIFIC): Flanked by top-line representatives Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson recorded career highs in goals (43), assists (35) and points (78) as well as a league-best plus-49 rating last season. The 25-year-old Swede, who won the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy to boot, avoided arbitration and signed a one-year, $5.25 million contract in the summer. Paul Stastny (Winnipeg) and five-time 30-goal scorer Max Pacioretty (Montreal) are expected to join Erik Haula on the second line and essentially replace the departed David Perron (St. Louis) and James Neal (Calgary). "I just like our team. It's not about our first line or our second line. It's about 23 guys on our team playing the game the right way," coach Gerard Gallant said.

OVERTIME

1. Vegas boasted an 11th-ranked power play (21.4 percent) last season while Philadelphia ranked 29th in penalty kill (75.8).

2. Philadelphia's Shayne Gostisbehere's 65 points were fourth-most among NHL defensemen in 2017-18.

3. Vegas' Shea Theodore, Deryk Engelland and Brayden McNabb will be looked upon to pick up the slack in the absence of fellow D Nate Schmidt, who will miss the first 20 games of the season for violating the terms of the NHL/NFLPA performance-enhancing substances program.

PREDICTION: Golden Knights 4, Flyers 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NLDS Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Milwaukee 5-2, Under 4-3)

Milwaukee vs. Colorado (Coors Field)
May 10 – Brewers 5, Rockies 2 (Under 11 ½)
May 11 – Brewers 11, Rockies 10 (Over 11 ½)
May 12 – Rockies 4, Brewers 0 (Under 11)
May 13 – Brewers 7, Rockies 3 (Under 10 ½)

Colorado vs. Milwaukee (Miller Park)
August 3 – Brewers 5, Rockies 3 (Under 8 ½)
August 4 – Brewers 8, Rockies 4 (Over 8 ½)
August 5 – Rockies 5, Brewers 4 (Over 8 ½)

This month may be referred to as “Rocktober” in the Denver area after the Rockies eliminated the Cubs in the NL Wild Card game in 13 innings. However, the Rockies’ opponent in the NLDS is riding plenty of momentum as the Brewers are red-hot following a spectacular September.

On September 1, following a one-run loss to the Nationals coupled with a Cubs’ blowout win over the Phillies, the Brewers sat five games out of the lead in the NL Central race. Milwaukee turned it up over the next 30 days by winning 20 of the final 26 games, including Monday’s 3-1 triumph at Chicago to wrap up its first division title since 2011. Also, the Brewers went from potentially hosting the NL Wild Card game (with a loss to the Cubs) to owning home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

Milwaukee’s resurgence this season following an 86-76 campaign in 2017 is attributed to several key offensive additions in the offseason. Most notably the pickup of outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins, who captured the NL batting title (.326), while finishing tied for third in home runs (36), and tied for second in RBI (110). Lorenzo Cain returned to Milwaukee after a successful stint in Kansas City as the center fielder hit .308 to go along with 30 stolen bases, which both ranked in the top-five in the NL.

The Brewers’ pitching staff showcased only one hurler that won double-digit games as former Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin won a career-best 15 starts. Chacin posted career-highs in strikeouts (156) and WHIP (1.16) in his first season with the Brewers, but has lost his last three starts at Miller Park. Chacin beat the Rockies at Coors Field in May as a +135 underdog, 5-2 by tossing 5.2 innings and yielding four hits and two runs.

The Rockies overcame a ridiculous travel schedule in a three-day stretch to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2009. Colorado forced a Game 163 by routing Washington at home on Sunday, but the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, 5-2 to be denied their first-ever NL West title. The Rockies then had to travel to Chicago to face a Cubs’ team that had been at home the entire weekend plus Monday in their pseudo-division championship game against the Brewers.

Colorado held off Chicago, 2-1 in 13 innings to bounce back from last year’s Wild Card loss at Arizona as the Rockies improved 10-2 in the last 12 games overall. In Tuesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, Rockies’ southpaw Kyle Freeland tossed 6.2 spectacular innings in his playoff debut as the Rockies moved to 16-2 in his previous 18 starts.

Although he lost in Game 163 to the Dodgers, right-hander German Marquez has been a key member of the Rockies’ rotation this season. Colorado has compiled a 12-5 record in his past 17 starts since the end of June, while dominating Milwaukee at Miller Park in early August. Marquez scattered three hits and two runs in seven innings, but the Colorado bullpen couldn’t hold onto a 3-2 lead as Milwaukee walked-off in the ninth inning in a 5-3 triumph.

The Brewers and Rockies are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as Colorado is looking to advance past the NLDS for the first time since capturing the pennant in 2007. The Brewers last reached the NLCS in 2011 as they lost to the Cardinals, while never making the World Series since moving to the National League in 1998.


2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 5-2, Over 4-3)

Atlanta vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
June 8 – Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (Over 7 ½)
June 9 – Braves 5, Dodgers 3 (Over 7 ½)
June 10 – Dodgers 7, Braves 2 (Over 7)

Los Angeles vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 8, Braves 2 (Over 8 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 4, Braves 1 (Under 8)
July 28 – Dodgers 5, Braves 1 (Under 9)
July 29 – Braves 4, Dodgers 1 (Under 8 ½)

Four of the five playoff teams in the National League needed to play on Monday to decide the NL Central and NL West titles. The only team to sit back and kick their feet was the NL East champion Braves, who captured their first division crown since 2013, but owned the fewest wins of any playoff squad with 90.

Atlanta beat up the competition inside the NL East, specifically the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets, the three teams that finished with losing records. The Braves posted a solid 39-18 record against those squads, but went 51-54 against the rest of the league, while failed to put together a winning mark against any of the other NL playoff teams in the regular season.

On the positive side, the Braves finished second in the National League in batting average at .257 behind the Cubs, while scoring 759 runs, which ranked tied for fourth in the NL with the Cardinals. Three Braves’ starting pitchers owned an ERA of 3.00 or less, led by right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, who won a team-best 13 games, while mid-season acquisition Kevin Gausman was unbeaten in five starts at SunTrust Park.

Foltynewicz struck out the sixth-most batters in the NL this season with 202, while fellow starters Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran each struck out over 160 batters. In his only start against the Dodgers this season, Foltynewicz allowed four runs in five innings of a 4-1 home defeat in July. Newcomb nearly no-hit the Dodgers in that same July series, as the southpaw settled for a 4-1 underdog victory. However, Newcomb struggled down the stretch as the Braves lost five of his final seven starts.

The Dodgers won 13 of their final 17 games to force a division championship game on Monday against the Rockies. Los Angeles cruised to a 5-2 victory to wrap up its sixth consecutive NL West title, while improving to 13-4 at home the last 17 games since getting swept by St. Louis in late August.

Prior to this season, not many people would predict that Max Muncy and Matt Kemp, who were not on the Dodgers’ roster last season, would combine for 56 home runs and 164 runs batted in. The Dodgers showcased seven players to hit at least 20 home runs this season, which doesn’t include Manny Machado, who knocked out a total of 37 home runs between his time and Los Angeles and Baltimore.

The big question heading into the postseason following last year’s Game 7 loss in the World Series to Houston is whether or not Clayton Kershaw can lead the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988. Los Angeles won four of Kershaw’s five postseason starts in 2017, but had to pitch out of the bullpen in Game 7 after the Dodgers trailed, 5-0 to the Astros. Kershaw is unbeaten in his last eight starts, while he shut down the Braves at SunTrust Park in July as the Dodgers are 7-0 in his past seven starts against Atlanta dating back to 2013.

However, Kershaw will start Game 2 for Los Angeles and turn to another left-hander in Game 1 as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball. Ryu closed the regular season on fire by winning each of his final three starts, while allowing four hits in each outing and a total of one run. In Ryu’s nine home starts this season, the Dodgers posted a solid 7-2 mark as he owned a miniscule ERA of 1.15 at Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers and Braves are meeting in the playoffs for the third time ever as Los Angeles eliminated Atlanta in four games of the NLDS back in 2013. Los Angeles had advanced to the NLCS in each of the past two seasons, while Atlanta is seeking its first trip to the NLCS since 2001 as the Braves have lost seven consecutive playoff series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (92 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (96 - 67) - 5:05 PM
TYLER ANDERSON (L) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-2 (+3.8 Units) against COLORADO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

TYLER ANDERSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ANDERSON is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 8.59 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

WADE MILEY vs. COLORADO since 1997
MILEY is 7-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.319.
His team's record is 8-5 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-4. (+4.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (90 - 72) at LA DODGERS (92 - 71) - 8:35 PM
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 30-41 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 90-71 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-11 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.
ATLANTA is 47-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 59-49 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 40-31 (+6.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 46-39 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 30-32 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 92-71 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 18-23 (-17.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 45-37 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 8-12 (-14.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 49-52 (-26.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 64-53 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 52-46 (-20.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 11-16 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
RYU is 5-12 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-2 (+1.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ATLANTA since 1997
RYU is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (+0.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, October 4

National League
Rockies (92-72) @ Brewers (96-67)
Senzatela is 2-0, 1.62 in his last three starts; his last six starts stayed under. Team in his starts: 7-6, 3-4 road
5-inning record: 5-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-13

It is a bullpen game for Milwaukee. Team in his starts: home
5-inning record: Allowed run in 1st inning:

Colorado won ten of its last 12 games, including four of last five on road. Rockies played at home Sunday, in LA Monday, in Chicago Tuesday- they’re in Milwaukee here. Brewers won their last eight games, only three of which were at home.

Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009. Brewers are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

Braves (90-72) @ Dodgers (92-71)
Foltynewicz is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He lost 4-1 to LA July July 27, allowing four runs in five IP. Team in his starts: 14-16, 8-7 road
5-inning record: 15-9-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-30

Ryu is 3-0, 0.47 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. He didn’t pitch against the Braves this year. Team in his starts: 9-5, 7-2 home
5-inning record: 8-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-14

Braves lost four of their last five games, after they had clinched NL East- they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won four in row, 10 of last 13 games; they won six of last seven home games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Atl 32-30-13…..35-31-10………67-61
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
LA 40-28-8…….34-29-16……74-57
Milw 31-34-10…..39-30-8…….70-64


%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Atl 23-74……31-77………54
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
LA 26-75……..29-78..…..55
Milw 27-74…..…30-79…….57

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, October 4

Trend Report

Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado's last 16 games on the road
Colorado is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado


Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, October 4

http://i63.tinypic.com/mv1a4x.jpg

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, October 4


Washington @ Pittsburgh

Game 51-52
October 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
12.227
Pittsburgh
13.762
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

NY Islanders @ Carolina

Game 53-54
October 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Islanders
10.617
Carolina
11.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-150); Under

Boston @ Buffalo

Game 55-56
October 4, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
7.988
Buffalo
11.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+110); Under

Columbus @ Detroit

Game 57-58
October 4, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
8.589
Detroit
12.023
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+120); Over

Chicago @ Ottawa

Game 59-60
October 4, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
8.977
Ottawa
10.505
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
-120
6
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(+100); Over

Nashville @ NY Rangers

Game 61-62
October 4, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
9.943
NY Rangers
11.050
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Rangers
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Rangers
(+130); Under

Winnipeg @ St. Louis

Game 63-64
October 4, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
10.688
St. Louis
12.081
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-115); Over

Arizona @ Dallas

Game 65-66
October 4, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
11.534
Dallas
13.238
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
-185
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-185); Under

Minnesota @ Colorado

Game 67-68
October 4, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
11.483
Colorado
10.060
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+125); Over

Philadelphia @ Vegas

Game 69-70
October 4, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
12.545
Vegas
10.892
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-170
6
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+150); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, October 4

Trend Report

Boston Bruins
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 15 games on the road
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing Boston
Buffalo is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston


New York Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Islanders is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Islanders is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 6 games
NY Islanders is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
NY Islanders is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games on the road
NY Islanders is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
NY Islanders is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Carolina
NY Islanders is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
NY Islanders is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Islanders
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Islanders
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Islanders
Carolina is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against NY Islanders


Washington Capitals
Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Washington is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington


Nashville Predators
Nashville is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games
Nashville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games on the road
Nashville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing NY Rangers
Nashville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Rangers
New York Rangers
NY Rangers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 6 games
NY Rangers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Rangers's last 5 games when playing Nashville
NY Rangers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville


Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Columbus is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Columbus is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Columbus's last 12 games
Columbus is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Columbus is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games on the road
Columbus is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Columbus is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Columbus's last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Detroit is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
Detroit is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Columbus
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Columbus
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Columbus


Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Chicago is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Ottawa is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis
Winnipeg is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games at home
St. Louis is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


Arizona Coyotes
Arizona is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Stars
Dallas is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona


Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
Minnesota is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Colorado
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Colorado is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Colorado is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games at home
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Colorado is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota


Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Vegas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Vegas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vegas's last 8 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

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WASHINGTON (1-0-0-0, 2 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 11-10-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at CAROLINA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 36-46 ATS (+88.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-10 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 5-4-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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BOSTON (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at BUFFALO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 10-19 ATS (-14.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 288-264 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 202-160 ATS (+363.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
BUFFALO is 25-58 ATS (-51.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 10-26 ATS (+45.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 10-28 ATS (+40.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-5 (+1.4 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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COLUMBUS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at DETROIT (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 48-27 ATS (+15.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-25 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 6-0-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.8 Units)

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CHICAGO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at OTTAWA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 33-50 ATS (-27.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 1-9 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 12-25 ATS (-15.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 100-111 ATS (-79.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

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NASHVILLE (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at NY RANGERS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 82-101 ATS (-37.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-1 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-1-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.0 Units)

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WINNIPEG (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at ST LOUIS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 42-25 ATS (+13.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 7-2 (+5.7 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 7-2-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

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ARIZONA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at DALLAS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-32 ATS (+56.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-0 (+6.0 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.7 Units)

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MINNESOTA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at COLORADO (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 3-13 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 46-43 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 5-4 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 5-4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) at VEGAS (0-0-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/4/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 65-38 ATS (+24.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 26-11 ATS (+8.8 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 1-1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-12
Against the Spread 26-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 31-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-26


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tulane (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Memphis, 40-24
Army (+7, ML +230) at Buffalo, 42-13
Florida (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 13-6
Liberty (+7, ML +225) at New Mexico, 52-43
Virginia Tech (+6.5, ML +210) at Duke, 31-14

The largest favorites to cover
Georgia Tech (-28) vs. Bowling Green, 63-17
Wake Forest (-28) vs. Rice, 56-24
Appalachian State (-25) vs. South Alabama, 52-7
Arizona State (-22) vs. Oregon State, 52-24
Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, 66-33

Top 25 Notes

-- The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State lived up to the pregame hype, as it was a classic in Beaver Stadium. That is, unless you had the 'over', as the total (69.5) was never in question with a defense first three quarters. There were just 27 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter before the offenses combined for a total of 26 points. There was the specter of overtime giving over bettors some hope, but that never came into fruition. It's too bad, too, as this one was fun to watch so overtime would have been a treat. The Buckeyes moved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four outings.

-- Alabama flew out to a 49-0 lead on Louisiana, erasing the 49-point spread by halftime. Unfortunately for Tide side bettors, they took their foot off the gas and the Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and 14 unanswered points for the backdoor cover, with their final TD coming with 3:58 to go. After opening 3-0 ATS, the Tide are 0-2 ATS across the past two outings.

-- Clemson certainly got a scare, especially when their starting quarterback exited the game and the third-string signal caller entered against Syracuse. The Orange had a 23-13 lead at one point during the fourth quarter, but the Tigers stormed back for 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to avoid a major upset at the hands of 'Cuse for a second straight season.

-- Washington was not about to get bitten by the Brigham Young upset bug. The Huskies fired out to a 35-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter, using their lockdown secondary to stymie the upset-minded Cougars. The Huskies entered the day just 1-3 ATS, and it was their first cover in three tries at home. The 'under' is now a perfect 5-0 on the season for the Dawgs, too.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina State kept their record unblemished with a 35-21 victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack improved to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS over the past three games. If you were an 'under' bettors (53) you weren't terribly pleased about the finish of this one (see below). ... Virginia Tech rebounded in a big way with a 31-14 road win at Duke, serving up the Blue Devils their first loss in five games. After opening 3-0 ATS, Duke is now 0-2 ATS over the past two. ... Miami-Florida paddled North Carolina 47-10 to pick up their fourth straight victory while going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their five outings this season.

-- Michigan State took care of Central Michigan 31-20, moving to 3-1 SU while slipping to 1-3 ATS overall. ... Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset, leading Michigan for most of the contest. However, the Wolverines ended up with the 20-17 win in Evanston, slipping to 2-3 ATS. They haven't covered in consecutive games yet this season and they're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two road contests. ... Nebraska cannot seem to get out of their own way, as Scott Frost slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS after a 42-28 loss to Purdue. After opening 0-3 SU, the Boilermakers have won two in a row and they have covered three straight.

-- Oklahoma slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid with a 66-33 win over Baylor. It was another 'over' for the Sooners, the fourth in five outings so far this season. ... Texas picked up an uneventful 19-14 victory at Kansas State, their first victory in Manhattan since 2002. They're still 0-2 ATS in two games away from Austin this season. Next up is the Red River Rivalry Game against the Sooners in Dallas. ... The side winner changed a handful of times since the midway point of the third quarter in Oklahoma State-Kansas. The Cowboys were laying 17, and they were covering or pushing for a good chunk of the contest. They went up 20 midway through the third quarter, only for Kansas to scored a TD early in the fourth. OK State returned the favor with 6:22 to go to cover agin, but Kansas struck quickly with 4:19 to pull back within 13. After a failed onside kick, the Cowboys ended up with a short field and they scored with 2:38 to go to earn the 48-28 win and cover.

-- After falling last week at USC, Washington State rebounded with a 28-24 win at home against Utah as short 'dogs on the Palouse. The Cougars struck with 4:14 to go in regulation, taking a 28-24 lead on an 89-yard touchdown, flipping the side in favor of the Cougs, and the total (50.5) also flipped on the big play. ... One of the other marquee matchups was Stanford-Notre Dame, but someone forgot to tell the Cardinal. After an emotional comeback last week at Oregon, head coach David Shaw's group was unable to bring it to that high of an emotional level for the second straight week in a tough road outing. The Irish blew their doors off 38-7, improving to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Notre Dame has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Kentucky moved to 5-0 SU with a 24-10 victory against South Carolina, picking up their second straight cover for the first time this season. Who had the Wildcats moving within one game of bowl eligibility and the calendar doesn't even read October yet? ... Texas A&M posted a 24-17 win over Arkansas, as they held on for the win but slipped to 4-1 ATS with their first non-cover. ... Florida picked up a 13-6 win at Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen Reunion Bowl in Starkville. After opening an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS, the Bulldogs are 0-2 SU/ATS while scoring just 6.5 PPG in two SEC battles and Auburn looming on the schedule next week.

Mid-Major Report

-- Tulane posted the 40-24 win over Memphis, the biggest underdog (+14.5, ML +450) to pick up an outright victory. ... Cincinnati rolled to a 49-7 win over Connecticut, easily earning the cover as 16-point road favorites. The Bearcats improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, while the Huskies slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, and 0-4 SU/ATS in four outings against FBS schools. ... Temple was unable to score the outright upset at Boston College, but the Owls earned their third consecutive cover.

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in Conference USA, as the two championship game representatives from a year ago, Florida Atlantic and North Texas each suffered losses in their conference openers. Middle Tennessee picked up the 25-24 win, posting the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to go to flip the side and deal Owls side bettors a bad beat. FAU slipped to 0-5 ATS. ... UNT was dropped at home by Louisiana Tech, as a blocked field goal sealed their fate. The under has cashed in four in a row for the Mean Green.

-- The game of the day in the MAC was Northern Illinois-Eastern Michigan, as these teams couldn't solve their differences until the third overtime. NIU ended up with a 26-23 road win, and 'under' (50.5) had to sweat out a winning ticket for an extra hour. EMU has dropped back-to-back games in overtime, as they could very well be 4-1 SU. The Eagles are a solid 4-1 ATS so far. ... Miami-Ohio fell short against Western Michigan 40-39, but they held on for the cover at most shops. This line moved from Miami favored by 1.5 to WMU favored by 2.5 during the week, but the sharps got it wrong in this one.

-- New Mexico fell 52-43 to Liberty, in a high-scoring battle, as the 'over' is now 4-0 for UNM through four games. ... Fresno State posted an impressive 49-27 win over visiting Toledo, moving to 3-1 SU/ATS in four games this season. ... Hawaii was back on the mainland for the third time this season, and it ended a lot better than last time around. Well, sorta. They picked up a 44-41 win in overtime at San Jose State, scoring 41 or more points for the fifth time in five games. However, after opening 2-0 ATS they're just 0-3-1 ATS across their past four outings.

-- Troy earned a 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina to win and cover for the fourth straight outing. ... Appalachian State rolled to an impressive 52-7 win against South Alabama, picking up their fourth cover in as many outings. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 so far this season for the Mountaineers.

Bad Beats

-- The Owls of FAU had a 21-3 lead at one point, and it looked like they were going to handily cover a three-point line on the road. However, Middle Tennessee stormed back and outscored the Owls 22-3, including a touchdown and two-point conversion with :38 left in regulation to flip the cover from FAU to Middle Tennessee.

-- Western Kentucky was leading Marshall by a 17-13 score after a go-ahead TD at 6:50 left in regulation. The Thundering Herd posted the TD with 1:44 to go, taking a 20-17 lead to kill moneyline bettors of the Hilltoppers. For those laying three and the hook, the Herd didn't do nearly enough at the end.

-- For those holding 'under' (69) tickets, the lack of offense in the second half of ULL-Bama was nice. However, the Ragin' Cajuns scored a TD with 3:58 to go to not only send the total over, but also flip the side from a push at most shops to a non-cover for Bama.

-- In the UVA-NC State game, there was a total of 53. There were a couple of things that went wrong if you had an under ticket here. With :52 left in the first half, there were just 17 total points on the board. However, the Wolfpack scored 10 quick points in the final minute of the second quarter to take a 20-7 lead, suddenly putting the over on track. It was a defense battle again in the third and most of the fourth, but the Pack scored with 7:25 for a total of 49 points. Under bettors were still feeling pretty good, but then the Hoos moved the ball into the red zone and punched one in with 3:08 to go to push the total over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big college football weekend to close September. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Michigan State (-27) 31, Central Michigan 20: The Spartans didn’t appear likely to cover trailing 3-0 until four minutes into the second quarter but Michigan State managed to flip the game to hold a 17-3 edge at the half and slipped past the spread momentarily with a 31-3 edge through three quarters. Central Michigan put up 17 points in the fourth to seal the underdog cover in an oddly uneven game with Central Michigan winning the first and fourth quarter 20-0 but outscored in the middle two quarters 31-0.

Northern Illinois (+3.5) 26, Eastern Michigan 23: After falling behind 10-0 early Northern Illinois dominated this game holding Eastern Michigan to negative net yards over nine consecutive possessions. The Huskies only led 13-10 in the fourth quarter and benefited from a missed field goal from the Eagles with about six minutes remaining. The Huskies weren’t quite able to run out the remaining clock and in the final two minutes Eastern Michigan managed to get back into field goal range and successfully forced overtime. Both teams scored with relative ease in the first overtime in the second session NIU was poised to score quickly again but fumbled at the four-yard-line. Eastern Michigan played it safe and set-up a 38-yard kick that was missed. In the third overtime Chad Ryland redeemed himself with a 42-yard field goal as the Eagles took the lead but the Huskies converted two big 3rd downs and got into the end zone for six and the minor MAC upset.

Indiana (-14½) 24, Rutgers 17: The Hoosiers led 24-7 at halftime at Rutgers but wound up unable to score in the second half with a pair of punts and a pair of turnovers in Rutgers territory. After an early fourth quarter fumble from Indiana Rutgers drove for a touchdown a few plays later to get within the spread. The Knights added a field goal after a Peyton Ramsey interception for a touchback but the Knights never got the ball back with a chance to tie down by only seven.

Washington State (+1) 28, Utah 24: After a high scoring 21-21 first half Utah got an early field goal in the third quarter and that appeared like it would be enough with an exchange of six straight punts with the Utes controlling the ground game with a 204-0 rushing edge in this Pac-12 affair. The Cougars got the big play it needed with an 89-yard touchdown pass through a pair of missed tackles with four minutes remaining to take the lead. Utah appeared poised to answer with a 36-yard gain on a 4th-and-10 play just across midfield, reaching the 7-yard-line with enough time to work with but the play was wiped out with a holding penalty and the Utes failed on the subsequent 4th-and-20 attempt.

Western Michigan (-3) 40, Miami, OH 39: The Redhawks led by 13 at the half and still sat up by six heading into the fourth quarter but things got interesting in the final half of the fourth quarter. Western Michigan completed an 89-yard drive to take a 34-33 lead but it took less than a minute for Miami to answer going up by five and opting to go for two and failing. Western Michigan would put together another long scoring drive that featured a 4th-and-10 conversion and also opted to go for two in a critical play relative to the spread with the Broncos favored by -1½ to -2½ most of the week before closing at -3. That conversion attempt also failed and with nearly three minutes remaining Miami had a great opportunity to get back in front. The Redhawks converted a 3rd-and-21 play but then fell short on a 3rd-and-3 opportunity and opted for a 50-yard field goal attempt that was no good. The one-point loss was enough to hold on for a narrow home underdog cover for the Redhawks however.

Georgia Southern (+3) 28, Arkansas State 21: The Sun Belt favorites trailed 7-3 at the half but managed to tie the game at 14-14 late in the third quarter and then at 21-21 with about five minutes remaining. Overtime looked certain as Georgia Southern faced 3rd down near midfield with fewer than 30 seconds remaining but Wesley Kennedy broke free for a 47-yard touchdown run for the upset.

Alabama (-48) 56, UL-Lafayette 14: Alabama had a 28-0 lead not even 13 minutes into this game and eclipsed the massive spread by halftime. A 94-yard pass play with reserves in the game put Alabama up 56-0 late in the third quarter but the Ragin’ Cajuns scored twice in the fourth quarter to take the backdoor cover.

Texas (-8½) 19, Kansas State 14: Texas led 19-0 at halftime with the help of a 90-yard punt return touchdown. Kansas State managed to score on its opening possession out of halftime and then watched Texas miss a field goal late in the third quarter. It took 16 plays and two 4th down conversions but Kansas State went 70 yards for another touchdown to get within the underdog spread early in the fourth quarter. Texas wasn’t able to add points but they forced a 3-and-out on the last Kansas State possession and ended the game taking a knee at the Kansas State 20-yard-line.

Oklahoma State (-17) 48, Kansas 28: The Jayhawks trailed by 20 through three quarters but made a late charge with two touchdown drives in the final frame. Oklahoma State ultimately answered each time including a spread-saving touchdown with 2:38 remaining. On its final possession Kansas wound up losing five yards in four plays as they weren’t a threat to steal the underdog cover back late.

Middle Tennessee State (+3) 25, Florida Atlantic 24: The Owls led 24-10 late in the third quarter but a 19-yard punt handed the Blue Raiders good field position and Middle Tennessee State scored three plays later to take just a seven-point deficit into the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic opted to go for it on a 4th down play just short of the 50 and came up short to shift the field position and after a pair of punts Middle Tennessee State had the ball back just inside FAU territory with almost four minutes remaining. With a 4th down conversion with about two minutes to go Middle Tennessee State faced 4th-and-goal in the final minute and delivered a rushing touchdown. Down one the Blue Raiders went for the win and got the two-point conversion to shake up the early Conference USA race and send Lane Kiffin and the Owls to 0-5 ATS.

Arizona State (-22) 52, Oregon State 24: The Sun Devils had just a 14-point lead well into the fourth quarter before scoring two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes. The first score came after Oregon State failed to score despite reaching the 1-yard-line and the second touchdown came after the Beavers again failed on 4th down in Arizona State territory. Oregon State fumbled near midfield on its final possession when a touchdown would have still flipped the spread result.

USC (-3½) 24, Arizona 20: USC led 24-0 into the third quarter before Arizona finally got on the scoreboard. Down 24-7 into the fourth quarter Arizona took advantage of a USC fumble, scoring on the next play to trail by only 10 with about 10 minutes remaining. USC again fumbled on the next possession but Arizona failed going for it on 4th-and-long past midfield with about six minutes to go. The Trojans opted to also try to pick a up a first down just outside field goal range with about four minutes remaining but came up short leaving the Wildcats in position for a potential backdoor cover. Arizona quickly reached the red zone with a pair of penalties helping the cause and had 1st-and-goal at the 1 to seemingly be in position to deliver a miracle for those on the underdog. It took until 4th down but Arizona did get a touchdown in the final two minutes but incredibly missed the extra-point, as most USC backers escaped holding on to the road favorite cover by a half point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

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TULSA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULSA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA ST (2 - 3) at TROY (4 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday, October 4

Georgia State @ Troy
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 13 games on the road
Georgia State is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Troy
Troy is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Tulsa @ Houston
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

Houston
Houston is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6


Thursday, October 4

Tulsa @ Houston

Game 303-304
October 4, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
74.580
Houston
88.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 13 1/2
79
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 18
70
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+18); Over

Georgia State @ Troy

Game 305-306
October 4, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
74.782
Troy
85.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 15 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(+15 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Thursday’s games
Tulsa is 0-3 this season vs I-A teams, losing by 7-8-14 points; they were outscored 55-17 in first half of those games, all which stayed under the total. Tulsa outgained Temple by 103 yards LW but lost 31-17. Golden Hurricane lost three of its last four games with Houston, losing 38-21/38-28 in their last two visits here. Under Montgomery, Tulsa is 10-4 as road underdogs. Average total in Houston’s three I-A games (2-1) is 82.3. Cougars are 3-8-1 in last dozen games as double digit favorites; under Applewhite, they’re 5-2 as home favorites. Houston scored

Troy won four of last five games with Georgia State, winning 31-21/45-21 in last two games played here; Trojans won/covered last three games overall, are 7-10 as home favorites under Brown, 9-17 in last 26 games as double digit favorites. Troy scored 80 points in winning its last two games, after their win at Nebraska. Georgia State ran for 308 yards in an upset win over UL-Monroe LW; Panthers gave up 100 points in losing first two road games this year, 41-7 at NC State, 59-22 at Memphis- under Elliott, they’re 1-3 as road underdogs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remaining unbeaten ATS teams in FBS college football:

Washington State 5-0 ATS
West Virginia 4-0 ATS
Florida International 4-0 ATS
Utah State 4-0 ATS
Syracuse 4-0-1 ATS
Appalachian State 3-0 ATS
Georgia Southern 3-0 ATS


Remaining winless ATS teams in FBS college football:

Nebraska 0-4 ATS
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS
Connecticut 0-4-1 ATS
Texas - San Antonio 0-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report

Week of October 1st

The month of October is always a great time of year for sports bettors as you've got college and pro football in full throat, the MLB playoffs on tap (with a few extra games to boot this year) and the NHL and NBA starting up this month as well. There is no shortage of action for bettors to break down and it's only going to get busier with college basketball up next in November. But we've briefly got to look back before moving ahead as last week's topics in this piece had some interesting results.

To start, the trend of 'overs' cashing for NFL teams off a TNF home game cashed another ticket very easily with Cleveland's controversial 45-42 loss in Oakland. For as much sweating as there was for bettors on the side in that game, those holding an 'over' ticket were already counting their money by the end of the 3rd quarter. Riding that trend is now a perfect 3-0 O/U this year and the team next up in that situation is the Super Bowl favorite L.A Rams. The Rams are off a shootout themselves and considering they've scored at least 30 points in all four games this year, if you like the 'over' with them this week (at Seattle with total currently sitting at 49.5) it's probably better to get your money in sooner rather than later. Especially with the Seahawks now missing safety Earl Thomas.

The one-hit wonder QB's ended up going 1-0 ATS on Sunday, although if you just look at their respective teams with Garoppolo now on the shelf, it was a nice 2-0 ATS Sunday to buck their trend. Houston and San Francisco got the job done ATS-wise in tight games, and tonight we get to see if Denver's Case Keenum can make it 3-for-3.

However, this week my focus shifts back over to the collegiate game and some lesser known conferences that don't always get the love (or eyeballs) that they probably should in the betting markets. None of these programs are going to be national title contenders, but your bankroll doesn't care if it's a big game or not, it just wants to grow. Hopefully we can do that by playing on/against a few of these programs this upcoming week.

Who's Hot

Teams from the Sun Belt's East Division – 13-5 ATS in 2018; 4-1 ATS the past week

Games featuring Sun Belt teams are probably most known by casual bettors as the ones they typically skip over because it's these teams that are the ones catching +30 or more points against the Georgia's and Alabama's of the world. Just this past weekend we had Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt West Division) getting +49 against the Crimson Tide, a play which ended up getting there thanks to Nick Saban taking his foot off the gas in the final frame. There are some quality football teams relative to most of their opponents in the Sun Belt though, specifically in the East division this year.

Four of the five teams in the Sun Belt East – which includes Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Coastal Carolina – have winning records SU through five weeks, but more importantly they are 13-5 ATS combined on the season. That number includes a 4-1 ATS record this past week with the only loss coming in a division rivalry game between Troy and Coastal Carolina where one of them had to lose. But Georgia Southern and Georgia State each won SU as home 'dogs, while Appalachian State blew the doors off a bad South Alabama squad.

A 13-5 ATS record though is not something that should be overlooked five weeks into the season now – nearly the halfway point – as these are programs that probably catch a few extra points against the “big boys” simply because of perception. It's going to be tough to find those spots going forward as it's basically conference play from here on out, but for those of you interested in following some of these Sun Belt East teams, you won't have to wait very long. Georgia State visits Troy on Thursday night with Troy laying -17 as of now. Given that Georgia State is the lone team in the division with a losing record SU (2-3) and ATS (1-3), backing the home side may be the way to go.

Who's Not

'Unders' in games featuring MAC East teams – 8-16 O/U combined this year

The conference affectionately known as “MACtion” has long been a CFB conference known for high-scoring games and some very suspect defense (although Khalil Mack came from the MAC). It's a league that made the brilliant move a few years back to switch their schedules around so that their conference games would be featured heavily on their own on Tuesday's/Wednesday's from late-October on (another thing we have to look forward too), as the uptempo style many schools here like to play is a boom for offensive football. We've seen coaches in this conference also you success in the MAC as a launching point for their own personal careers – think P.J Fleck in Minnesota now – as these offenses can be well-oiled machines at times and score with almost anyone in the country. It's the same story this year too, as 'unders' are not something you really want to be involved with in MAC games, especially when programs from the East division are involved.

The MAC East consists of Buffalo, Miami (OH), Akron, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Kent State. In 2018 those programs are a combined 16-8 O/U, and considering only Buffalo has a SU winning record through five weeks, their really isn't much defense being played here. Three of the six teams have point differentials of -37 or more, with the 1-4 SU Bowling Green Falcons a brutal -119 points so far in 2018. How you decide to use this information in the coming weeks is up to you – as fading these teams ATS with brutal defenses might be another strategy to employ – but I can tell you that there won't be many times I'll be looking at 'unders' in games involving these teams in the foreseeable future.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 6 college football bettors jump on Notre Dame's opening odds vs. Virginia Tech
Patrick Everson

Notre Dame is 5-0 SU and easily won and covered the past two weeks, against Wake Forest and Stanford. The Superbook opened the Irish -5.5 at Virginia Tech, and the line quickly went to 6.

Week 6 of the college football season features three teams looking to stay firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 23 Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5)

Notre Dame won three one-score games the first three weeks of the season, then steamrolled through the past two weeks. After hammering Wake Forest on the road, the Fighting Irish (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) dropped Stanford 38-17 as a 4.5-point home chalk in Week 5.

Virginia Tech was dealt a shocking Week 4 loss, getting outscored 28-7 in the fourth quarter at Old Dominion in a 49-35 setback as a 27.5-point favorite. The Hokies (3-1 SU and ATS) bounced back Saturday at Duke, rolling to a 31-14 win catching 6.5 points, despite not having starting QB Josh Jackson, who broke his leg in the loss to ODU.

“Notre Dame is playing very well right now and coming off a big win against Stanford,” Wilkinson said. “The line has already moved to -6, and we’re anticipating it to be -6.5 or -7 by game time.”


No. 20 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5)

The Red River Rivalry resumes, with Oklahoma putting its perfect mark on the line in a neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) got a huge Week 4 home scare against Army, winning in overtime, but followed with a 66-33 wipeout of Baylor laying 21.5 points at home.

Texas lost its season opener to Maryland, then notched four straight wins to get back on track. In Week 5 at Kansas State, the Longhorns (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) held on for a 19-14 victory as an 8.5-point fave.

“This is going to be a good matchup,” Wilkinson said. “Oklahoma is the better team, so we favored them by a little more than a touchdown. But the Longhorns are going against a Big 12 archrival. I think this line will drop to Oklahoma -7 pretty soon.”


No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers at Florida Gators (+3)

Louisiana State is out of the gate 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), including a key Week 3 upset victory at Auburn. Last weekend, the Tigers flattened Mississippi 45-16 giving 11.5 points at home.

Florida rebounded from a Week 2 upset home loss to Kentucky by rattling off three straight wins and covers. The Gators (4-1 SU and ATS) got through a Week 5 slog at Mississippi State, winning 13-6 as a 6.5-point favorite.

“We got some sharp action early on this game. It’s already down to LSU -2, and it could even be a pick ‘em by Saturday,” Wilkinson said. “These teams always play tight games against each other, and Florida is tough at home.”


No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies (-6)

Kentucky is another unbeaten Southeastern Conference team looking to make some noise. The Wildcats (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won all of their games by double digits, including last week’s 24-10 home victory over South Carolina in a pick ‘em game.

Texas A&M has two losses already, but those came to perennial powerhouses Clemson – A&M fell by 2 at home – and Alabama. In Week 5, the Aggies (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) beat Arkansas 24-17 as a hefty 20-point chalk.

“It’ll be interesting to see which way this line moves. We aren’t sure yet, but 6 feels like the right number to me,” Wilkinson said. “A&M might have two losses, but they were against the two best teams in the country.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DILLION ON THE MEND

One of the top rushers in the nation is hoping to return to action this week. Boston College sophomore, A.J. Dillon's status is up in the air after he rolled his ankle early in the third quarter of last weekend's 45-35 victory over Temple and didn't return. Head coach Steve Addazio had no update for reporters Monday, but Dillon was headed for a historic game at the time of his injury, having racked up 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries to that point. Dillon enters Week 6 ranked third in the nation in rushing yards (652), putting him on pace to blow past the 1,589 rushing yards he put up as a freshman.

Bettors should monitor Dillon's progress throughout the week as the Eagles prepare to visit N.C. State. If he misses the game or is hobbled going into the weekend, the Wolfpack suddenly become a terrific cover option; they're -4 as of Tuesday.


LAWRENCE BATTLING A NECK STRAIN

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has one more ailment to deal with as the Tigers prepare for Saturday's showdown with Wake Forest. In addition to being placed in the concussion protocol, Lawrence is recovering from a neck strain; both injuries were suffered on the same play, one that knocked Lawrence from the game in Clemson's come-from-behind 27-23 win over Syracuse. Lawrence will need to get clearance for the concussion before he can return to practice. Chase Brice, who led the Tigers' late rally against the Orange, would get the start if Lawrence isn't able to return in time.

More quarterback uncertainty could be a problem for Clemson, which has gone just 1-4 ATS on the season and very nearly lost outright at home to Syracuse. Wake Forest is getting 17 points at home, and that number might climb if Lawrence is delayed in his return to practice; the Demon Deacons fell 28-14 to Clemson in last year's meeting.


GANGI OUT FOR NEVADA?

The Nevada Wolf Pack could be without their starting quarterback for Saturday's pivotal Mountain West showdown with visiting Fresno State. Ty Gangi suffered a leg injury in last week's 28-25 triumph over Air Force and missed Monday's practice as a result. Head coach Jay Norvell has suggested that Gangi won't return to the field Tuesday, either. Gangi has been the lynch pin for a Wolf Pack pass offense ranked in the Top 30 in yards per game, having completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for 1,338 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. He finished with four TD tosses in the win over Air Force.

The downgrade from Gangi to No. 2 option Cristian Solano is significant enough for us to recommend taking Fresno State -12 if Gangi can't go. His absence would also impact Nevada's shot at reaching its team total, which sits at ~24 points as of Tuesday.


NORTHWESTERN ABOUT TO BE GROUNDED

It could be a long, difficult day for Northwestern running backs Saturday as the Wildcats visit the Michigan State Spartans. The Northwestern rush attack has been dismal through the first four games of the season; the Wildcats rank 122nd out of 129 Division I schools in average yards on the ground (94.8) and are one of only 10 programs not averaging triple digits. That mark isn't likely to improve this weekend at Spartan Stadium, with Michigan State having held foes to just 161 rushing yards on 108 carries – good for a microscopic 1.49 yards per attempt. Their 40.3 rushing yards allowed per game is the fewest in the nation.

Granted, the Wildcats had just 64 yards on 28 carries (2.3 YPC) in last year's encounter and still pulled out a 39-31 overtime win. But a similar showing Saturday at Spartan Stadium would make the home side an attractive cover option at -11.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tulsa at Houston
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

TULSA at HOUSTON...Tulsa has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series, though neither of these sides have been too reliable lately, as UH just 9-15-1 last 25 on board and Hurricane 6-10 last 16. Tulsa is 10-4 as visiting dog for Montgomery.
Slight to Tulsa, based on series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TROY...Ga State just 2-6-1 vs. spread last 9 in reg. season. Once-solid road dog mark taking some hits, 0-2 in role already TY. Troy only 2-5 as home chalk LY but has won and covered last 3 in 2018.
Troy, based on recent trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots back in betting form as double-digit faves in NFL Week 5 odds
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady had plenty to pump his fist about Sunday, when New England hammered Miami 38-7. That led to the Patriots opening as 10.5-point Week 5 home favorites against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season puts the Thursday night prime-time spotlight on the defending AFC champion. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)

New England dropped two in a row and didn’t look good in doing so, at Jacksonville and at Detroit. But the Patriots (2-2 SU and ATS) looked like their old elite selves in Week 4, hammering previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Indianapolis has quarterback Andrew Luck back this season, but his presence isn’t showing up much in the win column through the first month. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) staged a big comeback to force overtime against Houston on Sunday, but ultimately lost 37-34 as a 1-point home underdog.

“We opened this one Patriots -10.5, which is up 3 points from our lookahead number (last week) of Patriots -7.5,” Murray said. “New England looked like the defending AFC champion, and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and have to go on the road in a short week. Tough spot for Indianapolis here.”

That said, the line ticked down a half-point to 10 on Sunday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Atlanta could certainly be 3-1 at this point, and arguably even 4-0, but the football gods definitely haven’t been on the Falcons’ side the past two weeks. After falling at home in overtime to New Orleans in Week 3, Atlanta (1-3 SU and ATS) gave up a final-seconds score to Cincinnati in a 37-36 Week 4 home loss as a 3.5-point fave.

Pittsburgh has plenty of discord this season, coupled with a lack of Le’Veon Bell, the stud running back who continues to hold out. The struggle continued in the Week 4 Sunday nighter, with the Steelers (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) losing to Baltimore 26-14 as a 3-point home chalk.

“We opened it Steelers -4 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said. “Really tough loss for Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary looked awful, and they’re in for an even tougher test next week at Heinz Field against Big Ben, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There will be a lot of scoring in this one.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Jacksonville looked like the new “It” team when it rolled past visiting New England in Week 2, only to muddle through a 9-6 home loss to Tennessee the following week. However, the Jaguars (3-1 SU and ATS) got back on track in Week 4, drilling the New York Jets 31-12 laying 7.5 points at home.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has been a huge eye-opener early this season, throwing 13 TD passes with zero interceptions through three weeks. The Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) averaged 39.3 points per game in those three wins, but they still have work left to do in Week 4, traveling to face Denver in the Monday nighter.

“We opened Chiefs -3 (-110), took some money on Kansas City and moved it to -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This line could change, depending on how the Chiefs look in Denver.”


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC final, though neither team is in quite that form. Philadelphia, which lost only three games all of last year en route to winning the Super Bowl, already has two losses on its 2018-19 record. In Week 4, the Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled at Tennessee 26-23 in overtime giving 3 points.

Minnesota got a nice Week 1 win over a then-Jimmy Garoppolo-led San Francisco squad, but is winless since then. The Vikings (1-2-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t quite keep pace with the high-octane Los Angeles Rams last Thursday, losing 38-31 as a 7.5-point road pup.

“We opened Eagles -3 in the NFC Championship Game rematch,” Murray said. “Philly is coming off a really disappointing loss to the Titans, and the Vikings need a win as well to avoid a 1-3-1 start. Minnesota with three extra days to prepare here, in a big game for both teams.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 27-33-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 33-27-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-31

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7

May Day Mayfield

-- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.

Second-Half Ravens

-- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.

Total Recall

-- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.

-- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.

-- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.

-- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.

-- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.

-- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.

-- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.

-- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

New England Patriots
New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England's last 19 games
New England is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis @ New England

Game 301-302
October 4, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
127.961
New England
135.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5


Thursday
Colts (1-3) @ Patriots (2-2)— McDaniels surprisingly turned down Colts’ HC job last February, to stay as Patriots’ OC. Patriots won/covered both 2018 home games, winning 27-20/38-7; they were held under 6.0 yards/pass attempt in both their losses (6.5/7.8 in W’s). Indy lost its last two games by total of seven points; they’re 2-0 as road dogs this year; since ’15, they’re 12-9-1 as road dogs. Since ’13, New England is 24-11-3 as home faves; they get #1 WR Edelman back, which helps Brady a lot. Patriots won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 21+. Colts lost last five visits here, by 3-7-35-21-38 points; their last series win was in ‘09. Average total in last eight series games, 62.3. AFC South teams are 5-4 vs spread outside division.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opening Line Report - Week 5
Joe Williams

We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

Thursday, Oct. 4

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)

QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn't look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It's a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.

The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the 'under' is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GRONK LISTED AS DNP

Tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as “did not practice” on New England’s injury report on Monday ahead of its Thursday night matchup where it hosts Indianapolis. Gronk pulled himself from Sunday’s game against Miami with an ankle injury and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to recover on a short week. Gronk’s absence would obviously be a blow to the Patriots offense but one-way Brady and co. will help deal with the possible loss is with the return of Julian Edelman.

Brady, for one, is very excited, saying this about Edelman on Monday: “He gets open so quick, I think that's the thing about Julian, his explosiveness in the routes, in and out of breaks. It's very comforting for a quarterback to see a guy get open really early in a route.”

The Pats looked great offensively in Week 4, but Brady still hasn’t found a receiver he can consistently trust. That will change on Thursday. Expect Brady to look Edelman’s way early and often in a game with a total set at 51.5 and jump on the Over for Edelman’s receptions total when the market opens later in the week.


HILTON DOUBTFUL

In sticking with the Thursday nighter, Indianapolis will likely be without receiver T.Y. Hilton after he was forced from Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Add in injuries to top tight end Jack Doyle and top running back Marlon Mack and the Colts are going to be severely shorthanded on offense as they head to Foxborough.

The Colts were fine on Sunday without their top playmakers but that was at home and against a very bad Houston pass defense that ranks 27th in the league, giving up 288 yards per game through the air. New England’s pass defense ranks eighth (226.2 yards per game) and has been especially good at home, giving up 158 yards in Week 1 and 116 yards on Sunday. We’re not optimistic about Indy’s chances on Thursday and we’re taking the Under on its team total.


FOURNETTE OUT MULTIPLE GAMES

The injury fallout from Sunday continues as it’s being reported that Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will miss multiple games, including a mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City on Sunday. T.J. Yeldon will start in Fournette’s place and Corey Grant will change the pace so we’re staying away from the committee backfield and looking to receiver Keelan Cole for a prop.

We’ve done well with Cole so far this season, correctly calling his Over 3.5 receptions in Week 3 and then his Under 58.5 receiving yards in Week 4. It seems Cole is the kind of player who is being scripted in and out of weekly game plans. This week, coach Doug Marrone should be looking towards Cole as he game plans without Fournette and against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in passing defense. We’ll be leaning towards the Over on Cole’s reception total.


CHARGERS LOSE WHITE

L.A. Chargers’ linebacker Kyzir White had a knee scope on Monday and is considered week to week. White might not be a household name, but the rookie was playing on 73 percent of defensive snaps and has been solid in pass coverage. The Chargers’ loss is Jared Cook’s gain. The Raiders’ tight end is on fire and is coming off an 8-110-2 performance against the Browns on Sunday. Cook is Derek Carr’s most trusted target and that was clear when the Raiders lined him up as a wideout on third-and-3 late in overtime and threw him a jump ball — which he came down with. The Chargers-Raiders game on Sunday looks to be a shootout with a total set at 53.5 and bettors can expect a lot of balls thrown in Cook’s direction. We’re taking the Over on his reception total.


COOK STILL NOT HEALTHY

Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook admitted on Monday that his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent and that fans need to be patient with the Vikings’ run game. This is not what Vikings backers want to hear from their star running back who is coming off a 10-rush, 20-yard performance against the Rams on Thursday night.

Cook will likely play on Sunday, but we are going to be fading whatever his rushing yards total is as he’s in the worst possible spot for a running back with a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the best against the run so far this season, giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up just 24 yards on 12 combined carries to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis on Sunday and 37 yards on 11 combined carries to Jordan Wilkens and Nyheim Hines in Week 3. No one has been able to run on the Eagles yet this season and that’s not likely to change with a hobbled Cook. Take the Under on his rushing total with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Belichick “under” 12-4 last 16 reg season games, Indy “under” 11-3 last 14 (2-1 TY). Colts have covered first two on road this season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ugly Dogs - Week 5

The entire purpose of the Ugly Dogs is to take a good look at the teams that nobody wants to take. The only way to survive NFL betting is to force yourself to take teams that nobody dare would lay money on. Conventional “wisdom” consistently busts bankrolls in the NFL. It also offers enhanced betting value on the Ugly Dogs.

After all, if the linemaker is going to attract betting action on teams nobody wants he has to sweeten the pot and offer a better price than what may actually be warranted. Right from the start in Week 5 we have some truly ugly looking dogs. Let’s take a look at those teams that the masses will be avoiding and opposing.

Indianapolis Colts +10 at New England Patriots

The Patriots exposed the Miami Dolphins as AFC East pretenders and showed them who is boss in a devastating 38-7 annihilation. Now the meek and sluggish Colts will come calling to Gillette Stadium on Thursday night. Not only are the Colts 1-3 straight up but they are also rebuilding and have little if any supporting cast to go with quarterback Andrew Luck. Nobody wants the Colts in what is expected to be a slaughter. Yet how can the Patriots match their perfect performance from last week? Don’t be surprised if the Colts stay within the big number against a 2-2 New England team that may be feeling too satisfied.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teams to Watch - Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL starts on Thursday night, with the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots going head to head. That game will actually be part of this piece, as we once again look at teams to play and avoid in the coming week. As always, we will be giving you a pair of teams to play, in one form or another, this week, while also delivering two teams that you should probably avoid if you want to keep your bankroll intact.

Let’s get right to our play and avoid predictions for Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season with all odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

While it is certainly good to see Andrew Luck back under center for the Colts, it’s fair to suggest that he has not yet reached the heights we saw from him before his shoulder injury. Perhaps the Colts brass are easing him back into action, or perhaps they don’t think he has the arm strength to go deep on a regular basis. Whatever the case, the Colts have been struggling and will probably continue to do so on Thursday night.

The rumors of the demise of the Patriots appear to have been greatly exaggerated, as they pounded the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Rookie RB Sony Michel is finally fit and ready to go, plus New England gets Julian Edelman back from suspension for this one, which is why I suggest you play the New England Patriots.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TRYING OUR LUCK (AGAIN) WITH BUCK

Last week, we suggested betting on Ravens running back Javorious “Buck” Allen to score a touchdown at any time, mostly because of the praise he received from coach Jim Harbaugh and the extra touches he was getting near the goal line. That bet didn’t cash as Alex Collins got the only rushing touchdown for the Ravens in Week 4. But it’s important to analyze exactly what happened with the rushing splits between the two running backs. Collins scored on the first red-zone carry of the night and then on the second he fumbled, and it was recovered by Pittsburgh. From that point on, Allen received all four of the red-zone carries. Bettors should expect Allen to get the majority of red-zone carries against Cleveland this week and we’re again backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


FEWER SNAPS FOR CALLAWAY?

If you only look at the numbers, it would appear a breakout is due for Cleveland rookie receiver Antonio Callaway as he posted nine targets and a team-high 138 air yards in Week 4. But Callaway has made a lot of mistakes and coach Hue Jackson had this to say about those miscues on Tuesday: “Maybe not playing as many plays as he plays in a game will help him get to step back, look, take a blow, come back, and do it again."

Callaway has all the talent in the world but so far has only been able to haul in 10-of-24 targets and doesn’t have more than four catches in a game yet this season. This weekend, it sounds like he’ll be playing fewer snaps and, when he does get on the field, it’ll be against a Ravens squad ranked fourth in passing defense. We’re taking the Under 50.5 on his receiving yards total.


NOT READY FOR GORDON

Patriots fans are giddy over the prospect of having Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski running routes together for the rest of the season. If they can stay healthy (and out of trouble), it could be one of the more potent receiving groups in the league, but we’re not ready to put money behind Gordon just yet. He played just 22 snaps (18%) in Week 4 and had one catch for 17 yards on two targets. He’s just not up to speed with the offense yet and, with the Pats being on a short week, that’s not likely to change on Thursday night. We’re taking the Under 52.5 on his receiving yards total.


HENRY TO CASH IN

The Buffalo Bills looked a lot more like the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, getting shut out 22-0 at Green Bay. Fading the Bills is going to pay off more often than not as we don’t expect many wins like the one in Minnesota in Week 3. Buffalo hosts Tennessee this week and, although we don’t love betting on the Titans offense, we do like Derrick Henry to hit pay dirt.

The Bills don’t have a terrible run defense (ranked 11th at 95.2 yards against per game) but they have given up five rushing touchdowns, putting them only behind the Cardinals and the Falcons for most in the league. Henry, while posting just 40.8 yards on 13.5 carries per game, does have nine red-zone carries on the season, including seven in the past two weeks. To put that into perspective, Dion Lewis has zero red-zone carries in the last two weeks and Marcus Mariota has just one. Henry hasn’t found the end zone yet this season but that is bound to change this week and we’re backing him to score at any time.


BIG DAY COMING FOR BORTLES

As mentioned yesterday, Leonard Fournette is likely to miss multiple games, including this weekend’s tasty matchup with Kansas City. Because of this, we suggested taking the Over 4.5 on Keelan Cole’s reception total and we’re going to stack that with a Blake Bortles bet.

In the five games that Jacksonville has played without Fournette, dating back to last season, Bortles has attempted 34.4 pass attempts per game. Bortles passed for 376 yards without Fournette in Week 2 and then 388 yards last week in a game that Fournette was forced out of early with an injury. This week, the Jags travel to Kansas City. Yes, Jacksonville has the league’s best defense, but Kansas City will score, and Bortles is going to be forced to throw a lot if the Jags want to keep pace. The Chiefs are giving up 328.5 passing yards per game and we expect Bortles to get near that mark on Sunday. We’re taking the Over 287.5 on his passing yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Chiefs 4-0 ATS
t2. Rams 3-1 ATS
t2. Ravens 3-1 ATS
t2. Bears 3-1 ATS
t2. Bengals 3-1 ATS
t2. Jaguars 3-1 ATS
t2. Dolphins 3-1 ATS
t2. Titans 3-1 ATS
t2. Browns 3-1 ATS
t2. Lions 3-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

32. Broncos 0-3-1 ATS
t22. 49ers 1-3 ATS
t22. Steelers 1-3 ATS
t22. Jets 1-3 ATS
t22. Giants 1-3 ATS
t22. Texans 1-3 ATS
t22. Bills 1-3 ATS
t22. Falcons 1-3 ATS
t22. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t22. Chargers 1-3 ATS
t22. Cowboys 1-3 ATS


NFL's Top OVER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

t1. Bengals 4-0
t1. Chargers 4-0
t1. Buccaneers 4-0
t4. Falcons 3-1
t4. Lions 3-1
t4. Packers 3-1
t4. Chiefs 3-1
t4. Steelers 3-1
t4. 49ers 3-1


NFL's Top UNDER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Cardinals 4-0
t2. Cowboys 3-1
t2. Broncos 3-1
t2. Patriots 3-1
t2. Giants 3-1
t2. Seahawks 3-1
7. Redskins 2-1
t8. 14 teams tied at 2-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots' TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis.
Gronk is still listed as very Questionable for Thursday's game vs. Colts.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colts' WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has been ruled OUT for Week 5 at Patriots.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TNF - Colts at Patriots
Tony Mejia

Indianapolis at New England (-10, 51), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The Patriots bounced back from a loss in Jacksonville where they looked inferior on both sides of the ball by stomping out Miami’s illusions on Sunday.

For the second straight season, the Patriots have started 2-2, which has welcomed in the naysayers and attracts those eager to sprinkle dirt prematurely on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the most successful football franchise we’ve seen this century.

The months after losing to Philadelphia in Super Bowl have been filled with drama, acrimony and speculation over trade talk and the potential retirement of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. There have been no answers over why Malcolm Butler was scratched against the Eagles or why other popular players weren’t brought back. After Matt Patricia’s Detroit defense dominated New England on Sunday night in Week 3, all the noise started up again.

The Patriots needed to handle business last week to throw on the noise-canceling headphones, officially putting the past in the rear-view mirror now that we’re a month in and games are the primary focus.

New England avoided hearing all about how the sky is falling by dominating the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in a game they entered in danger of falling three games behind the pace in the AFC East had they lost. Instead, they scored the game’s first 38 points, breaking things open in the second quarter behind a pair of Tom Brady touchdown tosses and a James White TD run, one of two scores on the day. Rookie RB Sony Michel supplied the exclamation point with a 10-yard fourth-quarter TD run and wound up with 112 yards on 25 carries. He’s carved out a major role, which is fitting since September ended with the emergence of a new cast of characters.

Beyond Michel’s emergence, Cordarrelle Patterson rattled off the big catch-and-run that was representative of exactly what the Patriots hoped he’d bring to the table with his blazing speed. Josh Gordon debuted and contributed. Even though he’s still working his way back from a hamstring injury, the attention he commands makes him an effective decoy even when he’s not getting the ball. Former Colts first-round pick Phillip Dorsett scored for the second time this season, joining Chris Hogan and White with multiple receiving touchdowns. Gronk found the end zone first to open the season but hasn’t scored since and is dealing with an ankle issue but was cleared to play on Thursday morning.

With Julian Edelman also returning from suspension to make his season debut, there’s no longer a responsible way to say that Brady lacks weapons. There may be new faces in play, but the argument can be made that Gordon’s acquisition gives him his most talented receiver since Randy Moss, while Patterson gives him his fastest target.

It’s easy to write that we should all forget about “Deflategate” as a driving force here, but there may still be some residue in play.

Although this is only the second meeting between these teams since the accusation that New England’s quarterback conspired to doctor footballs in the 2014-15 AFC Championship Game was levied, that’s ancient history now.

Consider who is involved here. Bill Belichick is a known grudge-holder. Brady doesn’t need a reason to run up a score, but he’s long been among the NFL’s most competitive performers and had to serve a four-game suspension in ’16. He hasn’t seen the Colts since. This will also be the first time the Colts come into Foxborough since the scandal, so you’re likely to see a fan base that scans the internet for slights to pack a little extra for an old accuser.

Indianapolis is far removed from the days where it could be counted among New England’s threats. The Colts are still bringing Andrew Luck back after missing all of last season, but he looked more like his old self in Sunday’s OT loss despite losing T.Y. Hilton to an in-game injury. Luck rallied the Colts from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit despite working with the likes of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and newcomers at tight end (Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox) and running back (Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins).

Before Luck was injured, he was handing off to the legendary Frank Gore. He’s now working with a pair of rookies, who despite their talent, haven’t made life any easier from a continuity standpoint. This will be a learning experience for many of the Colts, who will be going through a short week situation – on the road, no less – for the first time.

Indianapolis is expected to be missing as many as seven starters and will be entering a venue where sympathy will be hard to find. Check out the injury report below for details. There’s a chance that we could see showers throughout this game and the potential for wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour exist, which could work to the Colts’ benefit in slowing New England down. Luck is 0-5 against Brady.

Indianapolis Colts
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC South: 7/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 45/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

New England Patriots
Season win total: 11 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/4 to 1/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/2 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 8/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened the regular season a 1-to-8 favorite to win the AFC East, which suggests an 88.9 percent chance of continuing their dominant run of 14 division titles in 15 years. Although the Dolphins got off to a great start and went up two games, New England's odds never really wavered, moving to 1/4 (80%) before improving following the weekend's conquest of the Miami. The Colts were the AFC South's biggest longshot to open the season at 4/1 and has seen that number reach 10/1 after a slow start.

The Patriots also opened as the AFC favorite (3/1) and the Super Bowl favorite (6/1) for the entire league. Kansas City (5/2) has supplanted the Pats as the AFC's top dog, both in the standings and for futures purposes. Only the L.A. Rams (9/5) and Kansas City (6/1) have better odds than New England (8/1) to win the Super Bowl. Indianapoilis has the same odds as the Browns (50/1) to win the AFC, better than only the Raiders (100/1), Jets (150/1) and Bills (500/1).

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots were installed as a 8-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced but opened this week laying 10. There are a few 10.5's out there and we may see this dip to 9.5 in the offshore market. The total opened at 55.5 an quickly was bet down to 53/53.5 before settling in at 51. Team totals have been set up with the Patriots number at 31 and Indy's at 20.5.

New England is a massive -500 favorite on the money line, while Indianapolis will get you +400/+425 on your investment.

INJURY CONCERNS

Hilton's absence for Indianapolis will make the most noise but isn't the only issue that the eam will have to overcome. Starting corner Kenny Moore and backup Quincy Wilson will miss this game with concussions, while Nate Hairston (ankle) should play, possibly doing so only because the team is so thin in the secondary. Safety Clayton Geathers, one of the top tacklers, is questionable with a knee injury, while linebacker Darius Leonard is dealing with a knee issue.

Up front, Indy is hoping to have left tackle Anthony Castonzo make his season debut despite no practice time at all this season, so his availability is something to montior. Versatile Denzelle Good is out, away from the team due to the death of his brother earlier this week in South Carolina. Center Ryan Kelly, whose botched snap helped contribute to Sunday's loss, is questionable. Tight end Jack Doyle (hip) and RB Marlon Mack (hamstring) also remain sidelined.

The Patriots are in much better shape entering a game on a short week, but did have to put RB Rex Burkhead and rookie LB Ja'Whaun Bentley went on injured reserve. Tackle LaAdrian Waddle (illness) and corner Eric Rowe (groin) join Gronkowski (ankle) as being questionable. Defensive linemen Danny Shelton (elbow), Geneo Grissom (ankle) and Adam Butler (leg) are also all dinged up.

RECENT MEETINGS (New England 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS last eight; OVER 7-2-1)

10/18/15 New England 34-27 at Indianapolis (NE -9.5, 54.5)
1/18/15 New England 45-7 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 52)
11/16/14 New England 42-20 at Indianapolis (NE +3, 57)
1/11/14 New England 43-22 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 51)
11/18/12 New England 59-24 vs. Indianapolis (NE -10, 55)
12/4/11 New England 31-24 vs. Indianapolis (IND +20.5, 48.5)
11/21/10 New England 31-28 vs. Indianapolis (IND +4.5, 50)
11/15/09 Indianapolis 35-34 vs. New England (NE +1.5, 48.5)
11/2/08 Indianapolis 18-15 vs. New England (NE +6.5, 44)
11/4/07 New England 24-20 at Indianapolis (IND +5, 56.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag I'd ride the first score being a touchdown and will trust Indy's Adam Vinatieri to best his successor in New England, Stephen Gostkowski, for the game's longest field goal.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Patriots -240, Colts +200)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Patriots -330, Colts +270)
Team to score first: (Patriots -175, Colts +155)
Team to score last: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
First score: (Touchdown -175, FG/Safety +155)
First turnover: (None +900, Fumble +165, INT -210)
Highest scoring half: 1st -120, 2nd + OT +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -110, Under -110)
Team with longest TD scored: (Patriots -185, Colts +160)
Team with longest FG made: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +280, No conversion/No attempt -340)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -300, No conversion/No attempt +250)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +1400, No -2500)
Will there be a 0 or 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -250, No +210)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the Colts liisted as a 1-point road underdog at the Jets. The Patriots will be back in the national spotlight, hosting the Chiefs on Sunday night for a showdown that's going to be among the season's most hyped. New England has been made a 3-point favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WHITE HOT IN THE RED ZONE

Happy Thursday! As per tradition, we kick off the NFL week with a prop and for it, we head to New England where the Pats host the Colts. When you look at the box score from last week’s Patriots-Dolphins game, the running back who stands out is Sony Michel with his 25 carries, 112 yards, and a touchdown. But if you watched the game closely, you would’ve noticed that, when the game was still close, Michel left in the field in the red zone in favor of James White.

Michel did end the day with six red-zone touches and a touchdown, but four of those carries came when the Patriots were ahead by 17 or more points. It almost looked as if Bill Belichick wanted Michel to get his first-career touchdown. White, meanwhile, had two red-zone carries, scored on a 22-yard run, and had two red-zone targets and a receiving touchdown. Tom Brady trusts White and bettors should as well by backing him to score a touchdown at any time on Thursday Night Football.


PACKERS DOWN RECEIVERS

Green Bay has some issues at receiver with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) both on the wrong side of questionable ahead of Sunday’s game in Detroit. In addition, Jimmy Graham (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Davante Adams (calf) was limited — both are expected to play but clearly, neither is at 100 percent.

With skill players dropping around him like flies, life isn’t getting easier for a hobbled Aaron Rodgers whose numbers have been quite pedestrian so far this season as he has yet to break the 300-yard passing mark. This week, he plays an underrated Lions passing defense that ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 171.8 yards per game. Sunday is trending towards being a tough day for Rodgers and we’re leaning towards the Under on his passing yards total of 299.5.


FADING KEENUM

Through four games, Denver Broncos fans can’t be overly thrilled with the Case Keenum signing. He had an up-and-down opener with 329 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, but since then he hasn’t thrown a touchdown, has thrown three interceptions, and has passing yards totals of 222, 192, and 245 — and that 245 came against Kansas City, a team that had allowed opposing quarterbacks 375.6 passing yards in the first three weeks.

This week, Keenum and the Broncos head to New York to take on a Jets unit that ranks second in passing defense DVOA. It’s much easier to run against the Jets (16th in rushing defense DVOA) and the Broncos will likely plan to use a lot of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. We’re fading Keenum and taking the Under 260.5 on his passing yards total.


TRYING AGAIN WITH ALLEN

Last week, we suggested betting on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to score a touchdown at any time and, admittedly, it missed badly as the Bills were shut out in Green Bay. This week, Buffalo returns home to take on a tough Tennessee defense but we’re going out on a limb and making the same bet again this week and there are a few reasons why.

First, Allen is really the only rushing option in the red zone with eight carries inside the 20 on the season — the rest of the Bills (LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, and Marcus Murphy) combined only have five. Second, the Titans have given up yards to quarterbacks on the ground so far this season with Deshaun Watson running for 44 and Blake Bortles for 27. Finally, the odds for Allen to score a touchdown at any time were set at +700 last week and will likely be similar this week, meaning bettors can afford to miss this one a few times before it hits, and it will still turn a nice profit.


SHOOTOUT IN STEEL CITY

If you like shootouts, look no further than the Atlanta-Pittsburgh game on Sunday that has a total that opened at 55 and has since been bet up to 57.5. Both teams are stacked on offense and hurting on defense, meaning points should come early and often. Oddsmakers are expecting huge games from just about everyone, but Pittsburgh tight end Vance MacDonald might not be getting the respect he deserves on the props market.

Since his debut in Week 2, MacDonald has been an important piece of the Steelers’ offense with lines of 3-26-0, 4-112-1, and 5-62-0. He’s also received a steady five targets each week and is running a pass route on 80.6 percent of his snaps, the highest rate of any tight end in the NFL. He’s one of the few players who doesn’t have an inflated total for Sunday and we’re liking MacDonald to go over his Over 3.5 receptions total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: UNDER 56 -110

Free Play on Georgia State vs Troy under 56 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: UNDER 56 -110

FREE PLAY on Georgia State/Troy under 56 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: Georgia State +15½ -110 at BMaker

1* Free Play on Georgia State +15½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: Georgia State +15½ -110 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Georgia State +15½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: Troy -15 -110 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Troy -15
I’m good with laying the number with the Troy Trojans today at home against the Georgia State Panthers. Troy is off to a 4-1 start this season with its only loss to Boise State. The Trojans are once again one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. They beat Florida A&M 59-7 and Coastal Carolina 45-21 in their two home games. They also covered as 10.5-point dogs in a 24-19 upset at Nebraska and as 4-point favorites in a 35-27 road win at LA Monroe. Georgia State has been blasted in its two road games at NC State 7-41 and at Memphis 22-59. Troy beat Georgia State 34-10 on the road last year as 7.5-point favorites. The Trojans are 7-1 ATS n their last eight games overall. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Georgia State is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Give me Troy.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: Troy -16½ -108 at 5Dimes

Take the Troy Trojans minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers. Georgia State (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 46-14 victory over UL-Monroe — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Troy (4-1) has won four in a row with their 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina last week. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Troy has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Lay the points with Troy. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: Georgia State +16 -110 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on Georgia State +16 -110
My money is on the Panthers to cash in a cover against Troy tonight. Georgia State got rolled in 3 straight games against Memphis, NC State and Western Michigan, but responded in a big way last week with a 46-14 thrashing of ULM as a 5.5-point dog. I look for the Panthers to carry over that momentum with another strong showing against the Trojans. Troy has won and covered 4 straight since that opening week loss to Boise State, but it's come against a soft schedule. Note that 1 of those wins was a mere 8-point win over the same ULM team that Georgia State just annihilated. Troy likely wins the game at home, but this will be a lot closer than most people think. Bet the Panthers +16!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Oct 04 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Red Wings
Play on: Red Wings +120 at BMaker

1* on Red Wings +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Oct 04 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Predators vs Rangers
Play on: Predators -150 at sportsbook

Free Pick on Predators

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover Oct 04 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Red Wings
Play on: OVER 5½ -101

This shapes up as a higher-scoring game than the oddsmakers think considering the circumstances. Columbus has one of the best goalies in hockey, Sergei Bobrovsky. But he's not getting the start. Instead it will be backup Joonas Korpisalo in net. That's a huge dropoff. Bobrovsky wasn't sharpe during preseason, but neither was Korpisalo with an .889 saves percentage and allowing 4.4 goals a game. Remember, too, the Blue Jackets won't have their star defenseman, Seth Jones, during at least the first month due to a sprained MCL he suffered in preseason. The Blue Jackets also will be without defensemen Ryan Murray, further weakening their blue line depth. The Red Wings should be faster this season with a lot of young players. They went 7-1 in preseason averaging 4.5 goals. Detroit scored at least three goals in each of its preseason games. Detroit, though, is dealing with a cluster injury problem on defense. The Red Wings are likely to be missing at least three of their top six defensemen. Definitely out are MIke Green and Niklas Kronwall. Jonathan Ericsson is doubtful. Trevor Daley is banged-up, too, but is expected to play although at less than 100 percent. These injuries mean the Red Wings will be playing at least four rookie defensemen, including Joe Hicketts and Filip Hronek, both of whom were supposed to be assigned to the American Hockey League but are now forced to play. The Blue Jackets' top line of Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois can take advantage. Panarin scored a franchise-best 82 points last season with 27 goals and 55 assists. Sparked by that line, the Blue Jackets went Over the total in 19 of their last 26 games. The Blue Jackets averaged 4.7 goals in eight preseason games, scoring at least four goals in seven of the preseason matchups.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Oct 04 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs Houston
Play on: OVER 70 -102

1* Free Pick on Tulsa/Houston OVER 70
I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks and a easy cash on the OVER in Thursday's AAC action that has the Houston Cougars hosting the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
This Houston offense is no joke. The Cougars are 2nd in the country in scoring at 52.3 ppg and lead the nation in total offense at 608.5 ypg. They have scored a minimum of 45 points in each of their 4 games. They have one of the more electric quarterbacks in D'Eriq King, who comes in completing 63% of his attempts with a 15-1 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 107 yards and 5 scores. It's not just him, they got playmakers at both receiver and out of the backfield.
I just don't see this Tulsa defense being able to slow them down, especially on the road in a prime time matchup. The numbers aren't terrible for the Golden Hurricane defense so far, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. I know they held Texas to 28 points, but the Longhorns had close to 500 yards and were up 21-0 before letting their foot off the gas in the 2nd half leading up to their game against USC.
The key here is that I think this Tulsa offense is going to be able to move the ball and put up some points against this Houston defense. The Golden Hurricane have shown the ability to pick up big chunks of yards, but turnovers have killed them. They have coughed up the football 13 times in 4 games. The Cougars have a great defensive player in Ed Oliver, but have allowed over 400 yards in each of their 3 games against FBS opponents and that includes 439 to a bad Rice offense.
I think we see more of the same with Houston scoring close to 50 and I see Tulsa flirting with 30 to have this thing flying past the mark. Take the OVER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson Oct 04 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs Houston
Play on: UNDER 71 -110

Free Play on Tulsa vs Houston under 71 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ross Benjamin Oct 04 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs Houston
Play on: Houston -17½ -106 at pinnacle

Ross Benjamin has an ATS winning side on Thursday’s Colts/Patriots (8:20 ET) game. That pick is backed by a remarkable 40-7 NFL ATS (85.1%) betting angle which has been extremely profitable since 1987. Ross is a sparkling 27-15 (64%) L42 with his NFL picks. Begin your NFL Week 5 wagering with this golden winning pick by acting urgently and purchasing immediately!
Tulsa @ Houston 8:00 PM ET
Game# 303-304
Play On: Houston -17.5
Tulsa enters this game on a 3-game losing streak and they allowed 28 points or more during each of those contests. Conversely, Houston is coming off a 70-14 massacre of Texas Southern in their previous outing and they covered as a massive 55.5-point favorite. The combination these results leads us to a never lost college football ATS betting angle which is illustrated below.
Any home favorite of 17.0 to 34.0-points in games 2 through 10, and they’re coming off a double-digit favorite ATS cover in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent that’s lost 2 or more games in a row and allowed 26 points or greater during their previous contest, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 21-0 ATS since 1983. Bet on Houston minus the points for my Thursday 10/4 college football free pick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Oct 04 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NHL | Jets vs Blues
Play on: Jets +110 at BMaker

Free Play on Jets +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence Oct 04 '18, 8:20 PM in 2h
NFL | Colts vs Patriots
Play on: OVER 52½ -110

Play - Patriots-Colts OVER (Game 302-301).
Edges: Pats: 5-1 OVER as double-digit home favorites last season … Colts: 7-0-1 OVER last eight games in this series … We recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Oct 04 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -1½ +120 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
I’m taking a shot with the Dodgers today on the run line against the Braves as my free pick for Thursday. I think they win this game by two runs or more to open this divisional round series. The Dodgers beat the Braves 5-2 in the season series and averaged 5.0 runs per game compared to 2.6 for Atlanta.
Hyun-Jin Ryu certainly deserves the Game 1 start tonight. The left-handed has posted a 1.88 ERA in 52 2/3 innings since returning on August 15th from a groin strain. He has gone 5-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in nine home starts this season.
Mike Foltynewicz had a great season for the Braves as well. But he has posted a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts coming in, and two of those were against a Phillies team that laid down. Folty is 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against Los Angeles. He gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 1-4 loss to the Dodgers back on July 27th.
The Braves are 1-6 in they last seven playoff games. Atlanta is 1-6 in Folty’s last seven starts against NL West opponents. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 27-10 in their last 37 during game 1 of a series. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Diamond Oct 04 '18, 10:05 PM in 4h
NHL | Flyers vs Golden Knights
Play on: Flyers +140 at 5Dimes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tonys *5 NHL Free Pick

Boston vs. Buffalo, 10/04/2018 19:00 EDT

Money Line: -128 Boston

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

Bruins shut out in game 1 Vs the capitals look to bounce back in a major way with a road win Vs the sabers take Boston Money line for my nhl free pick .

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

Brian's 9* NHL Market Mover

Boston vs. Buffalo, 10/04/2018 19:00 EDT

Money Line: +116 Buffalo

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

We won our NHL investment easy last night as the Capitals crushed the Bruins and will be fading the Bruins again tonight. Boston pulled their starting goaltender was pulled halfway into the second period so already this team has some issues.

Buffalo has been a doormat in the NHL for a few season now and finally have stockpiled some young talent as they named 21 year old Jack Eichel as there team captain. This team is rested and waiting on this Bruins team that played last night. Big time value here as we get a hungry dog at home.

Invest 9 units on rotation #56 Buffalo Sabers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Valley Sports

NCAA Football TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE/HOUSTON COUGARS u70

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Odds & News

NFL INDIANAPOLIS COLTS/NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑110 u50

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Lasvegasmoneymachine

NHL COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS ‑135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monster Sports Picks

NHL COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS ‑135

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Insider Sports Report

NCAA Football TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE/HOUSTON COUGARS ‑17.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ace / V.I.P.

NFL INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mikey Money

NHL CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS ‑115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Dog

MLB ATLANTA BRAVES +170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tys Terrific Tips

NCAA Football TROY TROJANS ‑15.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Assassin Sports Betting

NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑7 ‑170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DONNY ACTION

NCAA Football GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS +16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Lock Sports

NHL COLORADO AVALANCHE ‑110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mikey Sports

NCAA Football TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE +18.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pure Lock

NCAA Football GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS +16

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R and R Totals

NCAA Football GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS/TROY TROJANS ‑115 u55