Service Plays Thursday 4/4/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[dawggy]

Tony Finn


FINN THU NITE NL PRIVATE PLAY (9-1)
Game: (957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 4 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -115

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

PLAY: Atlanta Braves -115 (good to -140)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Darvish and Fried
(957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Atlanta Braves
First and foremost the bookmakers established that Joe Public will see that Japanese import Yu Darvish is on the mound against Max "who?" Fried, and with this, twice as many public tickets issued on Darvish opposed to little known Fried. All things being equal Fried and the Braves are at minimum, in a baseball vacuum, -130, at most -150 in this getaway game at hitter friendly SunTrust Park.
With complete transparency let it be known that I firmly believe that Darvish will eventually find his way this 2019 season. He has plus-stuff and his baseball IQ is well above the average big leaguer. Due to a injury plagued 2018 season where he made just eight starts in combination with a spring that saw him working on his release point more than fine tuning his grip enabling him to command that plus-stuff.

I am stating as modestly as words will enable in relation to what Darvish is capable of. The truth be that he has better than plus-stuff.. he has plus-plus-plus stuff.. Hence, the reason for this "play against" on Thursday night in Atlanta.

Note: If you, all of you who have access to my releases and the analysis, whom have the wherewithal to watch this game -- do it. You will see in short order the crazy movement that Yu has on nearly every piece of his arsenal. There are a hundred different adjectives I could use in front of nouns that paint a picture of the Darvish arsenal. I won't go there for the sake of turning this short write-up into a short story.

In short, the amount of movement Yu gets on all of his pitches, is crazy electric. Darvish is a right-hander that has the movement of a hard throwing lefty... which by itself is a difficult puzzle for hitters to comprehend -- sick-good late jump on his four-seamer.

1. Fastball that when healthy can touch 95 mph with the movement of a 88 mph slider

2. Splitter that clocks in between 82-85 mph and has been his outpitch since he made the move from Japan to the U.S. -- when healthy with mid-season form his splitter falls off the table at a 45 degree angle.

3. Slider that was his secondary out-pitch when he arrived in the states when the count was full -- and note that it wasn't just an out-pitch when he was facing savvy hitters -- it is the quintessential wipeout -- hard lateral movement head shaking piece -- that made him the most desired pitcher in Asia in the early part of this decade.

Darvish also throws a Curve (and can throw it for a strike at as little as 68 mph) and a changeup for a strike with a 8-10 mph differential form his average fastball.

The current issue with Darvish considering my complementary outline of what he is capable of?

Form- a combination of repetition that is absolutely a must to command this many pitches with his animated movement.

His first start this season, in Texas, against his former team in the Rangers, his movement was outrageously head shaking.

His command of said arsenal?

Pathetic

He needs, at minimum, 6-8 more starts and serious side (between start) sessions before he is trustworthy. At this point, because of the reasoning I just outlined, he is a serious-serious-serious "play against"

For those that just glance at boxscores without reading between the numbers will find that the Cubs righty allowed 3 runs on 2 hits ---- Those that actually take a second to read the complete surface stats would also find that he did so in just 2.2 innings of work. Darvish was facing a Rangers batting order that is anything but patient... uber-aggressive and undisciplined is the best way to describe this Texas batting order that will be a big part of why the Rangers lose 100 games this season. Darvish walked 7 batters in that 2.2 innings of work. He allowed a home run and threw 75 pitches in those 2.2 innings of work.
'
In his eight starts a season ago he offered the necessary evidence that will have you shaking your head up and down in agreement. Darvish's surface numbers in his eight starts last season -- 4.73 BB/9 - 11.03 K/9 -- after one start this season his 4.73 BB/9 with eight starts a year ago is 23.63 BB/9 after a single start.

The best the Braves have every five days, among their pitching staff, is Mike Foltynewicz -- followed by Kevin Gausman -- and both are currently injured. And while Thursday's starter, Max Fried, at this point in his career is best utilized in long relieve or for a two inning stint due to his aggressive style and capable velocity, he is a talent worth backing and more so watching as he progresses into a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher in the years to come.

For those not familiar with Fried -- note he is bottom line over-the-top value packed -- as a touted and respected prospect in an organization that knows baseball.

Fried was the team's best arm in camp across March. He is armed and ready form wise. He threw the most innings during camp among the Braves starters and struck out a batter per inning pitched and allowed less hits than innings pitched. He is one of just a handful of young lefties at Major League level without a full season in the bigs that is not just respected, but asked about when GM speaks to GM talking trade (availability).

The Cubs batting order ranked in the Top-10 last year in OPS, runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage, overall.

The Cubs were not that offense when facing left-handed pitching slashing a below average .260/.333/.398/.730 with just 31 total home runs versus southpaws. And this is, all things equal, the same lineup this season, as last.

The Cubs bullpen is a mess. They have already been overused --- abused -- and because of such Coach M and his staff will be looking to get five innings, minimum from Darvish on Thursday night -- which I fully expect to result in five-plus runs and possible 10 walks... either the aforementioned or Darvish throws 90 mph batting practice with aimed fastballs giving Madden what he asked for... innings.

ATLANTA BRAVES -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* GOW

Winnipeg -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* NIT GOY

LIPSCOMB +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* Lipscomb +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson

3* Lipscomb +1.5

[Calidreaming]

Al Demarco pick on Mets at 1pm

[Calidreaming]

Spreitzer mlb pick on KC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

UNDER 227 GOLDEN ST. @ L.A. LAKERS | 4/04 | 10:30 PM EDT


YESTERDAY 10:40 PM
My data sees the Lakers and Warriors putting up a maximum of 220 points Thursday, providing value on the Under against the posted total. The Lakers have gone Under in four straight against winning teams, while the Warriors are 7-1 to the Under when playing on just one day's rest.

86-68 IN LAST 154 NBA PICKS | +1174
6-4 IN LAST 10 GS O/U PICKS | +169


OVER 228.5 CLEVELAND @ SACRAMENTO | 4/04 | 10:00 PM EDT


YESTERDAY 10:37 PM
My numbers see the Kings and Cavaliers totaling at least 238 points in their Thursday meeting, which would send this one soaring Over the total with room to spare. The Cavs have played Over in five straight and are 7-0 to the Over following a loss. The Over is on a 5-2 spurt in this series as well. .

86-68 IN LAST 154 NBA PICKS | +1174
4-0 IN LAST 4 SAC O/U PICKS | +400

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

1*
Atlanta / Chicago over 8.5

1*
Atlanta -115

3*
Cleveland / Sacramento under 229.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

2*
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -142

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3*GOW

Winnipeg -105

2*
Pittsburgh/ Cincinnati over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3*
Milwaukee/Philadelphia UNDER 230.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

2*
Mets -123

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg shaker

3*
Atlanta / Chicago over 8.5

1*
LA ANGELS / Texas over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King creole

2*
Golden State Warriors / Los Angeles Lakers under 227

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th Hour Sports

11th: MLB, 8u: 951 WAS+110 1st 5. WAS+120gm. 959 KC-105. 964 BAL+185. BAL O 7.5. 966 OAK-105.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WORLDS WORST PICKER

MLB

Both Regular Plays

Oakland Athletics Atlanta Braves

Play ON the OPPOSITES

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports

MLB
Pirates
Over 8.5 Braves/Cubs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WORLDS WORST PICKER

NCAA BB

Both Regular Plays

Texas Wisc Green Bay

Play ON the OPPOSITES

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass first report : 200 orioles , 200 orioles game over , 300 nationals , 300 royals , 400 Red Sox game under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Billy Coleman

NCAA BK
3* #728 Texas -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


L.A. ANGELS -141


TEXAS @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/04 | 10:07 PM EDT
11:27 AM
Matt Harvey was solid in his first start for the Halos, allowing two runs over six innings with a fastball that had zip to it. He matches up with the Rangers' Edinson Volquez, who allowed four runs in four innings in his opener. The Angels' offense has been an embarrassment in 2019, but in the past they've have connected against Volquez -- he's 1-4 with a 10.71 ERA in six games all-time (four starts), and the current lineup is hitting .413 against him. The Angels also have the far-better bullpen and are at home for the first time this season. Look for L.A. to get back on track here.

14-5 IN LAST 19 TEX ML PICKS | +816


TORONTO +160


TORONTO @ CLEVELAND | 4/04 | 6:10 PM EDT
11:19 AM
The banged-up Indians batting order has been terrible, hitting .160 all season with 58 strikeouts and just 18 runs, only once managing more than three runs. The one player that's been getting it done for them, Hanley Ramirez, is 2-for-18 with eight K's against Jays starter Aaron Sanchez. Toronto's offense isn't ripping it up either, but it's scored more runs and hit more homers than Cleveland, and Indians starter Trevor Bauer owns a career 6.07 ERA against the Jays.

10-3 IN LAST 13 CLE ML PICKS | +688

3-0 IN LAST 3 TOR ML PICKS | +300


BOSTON -102


BOSTON @ OAKLAND | 4/04 | 3:37 PM EDT
11:10 AM
Oakland has relied exclusively on the long ball to produce against left-handed pitching. The A’s overall are hitting .227 against them with 12 runs, 11 of which courtesy of the longball. Boston LHP Eduardo Rodriguez was shelled in his opening game at Seattle, but he doesn’t give up many homers, fewer than one per game on average in 2018 and just one against the Mariners. Brett Anderson has been shut-down at home for the A’s, but Boston has been among the better-batting teams against lefties, and all-time against Anderson the lineup is hitting .428. Eventually Boston is going to score runs. At near even-money Thursday, that’s a fair price for the defending champ.

23-11 IN LAST 34 BOS ML PICKS | +854


BALTIMORE +180


N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 4/04 | 3:05 PM EDT
11:02 AM
Sure the Yankees are the better team, but it isn’t showing yet. Each team has very similar offensive statistics so far, and the O’s took two of three at New York to open the year. James Paxton was solid against Baltimore in his one start, but he still took the loss. Baltimore should benefit from facing him for the second time in a week. Meanwhile, Alex Cobb was solid against a more-potent Yankees lineup last year, allowing three runs over 12 innings with 12 strikeouts in two starts last year. This is his first start this year. Also, as bad as Baltimore has been lately, the O's have won seven of eight home openers. It’s worth a flyer to back such a big underdog in this position.

11-1 IN LAST 12 BAL ML PICKS | +1020

14-10 IN LAST 24 NYY ML PICKS | +285

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

4 Units - #956 Pirates (-120) vs Cincy *7:05 EST

The Pirates and Reds open up a four-game series in the Steel City. Both teams are off a frustrating start to the week, failing to win thus far. The starting pitcher matchup of Jordan Lyles for Pittsburgh vs. Taylor Mahle of Cincinnati favors the Pirates, based on results, not ERA.
Mahle and the Reds have never beaten the Bucs in four starts and he has a 5.90 ERA against them. Lyles' 5.10 ERA is hardly impressive, but he's 4-1 against Cincy and 5-2 for the different teams he's pitched for. Once again and this will probably be true all year, Cincinnati is 7-23 in April most recently which means an uphill battle. Pittsburgh's stronger offense will pick up the rest of the difference for a winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports
4 Unit-Lipscomb+105 money line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


L.A. LAKERS +13


GOLDEN ST. @ L.A. LAKERS | 4/04 | 10:30 PM EDT
12:49 PM
The Warriors don't want to run up the score on Luke Walton, their former assistant, who is fighting for his job. They'll be happy to get out of L.A. with a 10-point win. Look for the Lakers' youngsters, who have keyed the team's current 4-2 straight-up and 5-1 ATS run, to have a big fourth quarter and get the cover.

76-56-1 IN LAST 133 NBA ATS PICKS | +1436
9-5-1 IN LAST 15 LAL ATS PICKS | +348


PHILADELPHIA +5


MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 4/04 | 8:00 PM EDT
12:43 PM
The home team has covered five of the past six in this series, the exception being Philly's win at Milwaukee on March 17. The Bucks are looking for payback, but should they be laying this many points given Joel Embiid is coming back? He had 39 points and 13 rebounds the last time he suited up, and he had 40 points and 15 rebounds three weeks ago versus the Bucks. Philly is 30-9 at home, including six straight wins. Grab the points.

76-56-1 IN LAST 133 NBA ATS PICKS | +1436
41-32 IN LAST 73 PHI ATS PICKS | +648

25-18-1 IN LAST 44 MIL ATS PICKS | +525

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sleepyj

3*
Golden State -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CleInsidersports (4-1 yest)

NBA
Bucks -4.5
Bucks/76ers UNDER 230.5

NHL
Jets ML (+100)
Jets/Avalanche OVER 6

MLB
Braves ML (-115)
Nationals/Mets UNDER 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc MLB

7 Unit-Red Sox-115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

NBA: MIL/PHI 1H Under 113.5 3u

MLB: CLE F5 -.5 -120 1u

NHL: Montreal ML +120 1u

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3* Texas -3


3* LA LAKERS +13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sport


7-Unit Play. #727 Take Lipscomb (+1.5) over Texas (7 p.m., Thursday, April 4)

We missed with TCU against Texas in Tuesday's semi-final match-up, but I think that loss for us sets up for an even bigger payday tonight in the NIT Championship. Look, Lipscomb is a really, really good team. In fact, they are the better team in this match-up. Let's be honest, the only reason oddsmakers have favored Texas is because they are a power conference team from the Big 12 up against a mid-major from the Atlantic Sun. It surely isn't because of what they have accomplished this season. This Bisons team appeared in the NCAA Tournament last year, but arguably this year's March efforts have done the program one better. 29 wins on the year, already the best ever record for this basketball program, and it would be quite fitting for the team to earn their 30th win of the year in the NIT Championship. And objectively speaking, I have a hard time not seeing this A-Sun team finish what they started in this tournament. Lipscomb won three straight games on opponents' home floor, including beating No. 1 seed and 29-win UNC-Greensboro as well as the ACC's 24-win N.C. State in Raleigh. And despite being down by double digits in the second half in Tuesday's semi-final game vs. Wichita State, the Bisons produced an 18-point swing to turn that game on its head and find a way into tonight's title contest. All of these efforts tell me, as I said, that I have a hard time imagining this inspired mid-major to not finish this tournament run with a win against against a Texas team that was just 16-16 on the year as they entered NIT play. So not to diminish the Longhorns' efforts to get here just the same, but Texas had a much easier road to NYC. Specifically to that, this isn't a good match-up for them, a team that has shown to be extremely inconsistent scoring the basketball. Lipscomb has averaged 82 points over the course of the season, and this veteran and experienced team is not going to be denied. After losing the Atlantic Sun conference tournament final, it's clear this team did not allow themselves to feel sorry for missing out on the NCAA Tournament. They responded accordingly by going 4-0 both SU and ATS in this tournament. Even further, tonight's NIT title game is their own NCAA Tournament championship. Despite being a small underdog, all the value is on them with none of the pressure. What this team has accomplished is extremely rare for a small program from Nashville. The upperclassmen for Lipscomb would have been around when they played Texas two years ago in Austin. That was a 23-point loss and clearly the two teams weren't on the same level. That's no longer the case. Garrison Mathews is an NBA-caliber shooting guard. Think J.J. Redick. Rob Marberry is a four-year player who has averaged double figure points for three straight seasons. Kenny Cooper is a talented junior point guard who works really well together with his two top scorers. This moment will not be too big for this group. Tuesday they found a way to win despite shooting 35 percent from the floor, notably 5-23 from three. That won't be the case tonight. Lipscomb beats Texas for the NIT title.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise phone service

4 Lipscomb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

2*Cubs/Braves O 8.5

[FATMANWINS]

vegas line reader
indians -1.5

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
8 braves over
7 angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Junkie (CBB Play of the Day) - $500 Lipscomb +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PhillyGodFather

clev -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR
Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 400 Blue Jays RL, 700 Cavs game under , 500 Wisconsin GB, 1000 Lipscomb

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Budin - CEO

Thursday's Play

The New York Crew has its 50 Dime play on Milwaukee at Philadelphia. The Bucks are -5 at 3:00 PM Eastern as I put my site live.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie SPORTS

cavs +10
texas over 142.5
marshall-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George
4 Unit 1st half Mil -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris
4 Unit Gs/lak under 227

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman
4 Unit clev/Sac over 229

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
7 Unit Mil -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wise Guy Insider

NCAAB 7:00 pm Wisc Green Bay at Marshall Marshall -5.5 for 1 units