Service Plays Tuesday 4/30/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
9:29 AM
The spread right now is the same as it was for Game 1, a four-point Warriors win and a Rockets cover. The non-call against Draymond Green on James Harden in the final seconds, and it could have been even closer if not an outright Houston win. I think the Warriors escaped, and the Rockets will keep it close with another chance to steal a road win. Take the points.

99-72-1 IN LAST 172 NBA ATS PICKS | +1975
33-26-2 IN LAST 61 GS ATS PICKS | +530

3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=4437)
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Rockets 6.0 (-115)

View Analysis

Refs refs refs

Pretty sure the Dubs finish the 3peat all told by the end of the season....but this hubub is gonna lead to something and most likely that's game 2. They won by merely 4 as it was needing a massive Steph 3 late to extend the lead past 2 points and Durant to go OFF yet again...at Oracle
Rockets probably win this game going away in my estimation...and with all going on we still get the same half dozen? WTF

[dawggy]

ROB VENOBASKETBALL PLAYS



Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 220.0 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


BASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (963) Houston Astros at (964) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Dr. Chuck System A totals at 45-16 since start of 2018 season!

McHugh v. Pineda

8.5 is excellent...8 is solid!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Toby Maxtone-Smith​ (VegasInsider Soccer)
One of the Better Soccer Handicapers @ VegasInsider..

UEFA Champions League - Semifinals
Tottenham Hotspur vs Ajax (3:00pm TV - TNT)
Quick Note - Before these playoffs started
Tottenham Hotspur (33-1) & Ajax (250-1) in one of the most unlikely
Champions League Semi-Finals​ ever...

The Play - Tottenham Hotspur +141 & Under 2.5 goals (-119)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* Milwaukee -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* GOM Houston +5.5

2* Columbus / Boston over 5.5

2* Colorado / San Jose over 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* Golden State -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sleepyj

3* Golden State -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mlbtotal

Milwaukee Over 8.5

[golden contender]

Tuesday card has a 5* Double perfect NBA System play and the MLB Game of the week. There is also a solid round 2 NHL Playoff historical system. MLB Comp dog play below.


The MLB comp Play is on Seattle at 10:10 eastern. The Mariners are a nice dog here and they fit a a powerful 115-71 system that has a 37-16 record for home team. They also fit a secondary system that pertains to their blowout home loss and the Cubs road win. The Mariners have won 17 of 23 vs a team that scored 5 or more runs and 9 of 13 vs a lefty. Chicago is 1-6 on the road vs A.L. Teams that are pitching a righty. Felix Hernandez makes the start and he has won 7 of 10 at home in April. He opposes C. Hamels who has dropped 2 of his last 3 starts here. Look for Seattle to take the opener. On Tuesday we end the week big with Baskets, bases and Hockey with the lead play a double perfect 5* in the NBA and the MLB Game of the Week. See us on facebook to jump on now. For the MLB Free pick. Play on Seattle. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

OVER 220.5 HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT


10:57 AM
Neither team was particularly on fire in Game 1 when 204 points were scored. On Tuesday, I think the postgame complaints about the officiating will free up 3-point shooters to rise and shoot without concern. My model predicts 225 points will be scored and that the Over hits 58 percent of the time. Take the Over.

4-2 IN LAST 6 NBA O/U PICKS | +175
8-5 IN LAST 13 GS O/U PICKS | +258


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
10:25 AM
The Rockets shot uncharacteristically poorly from 3-point land in Game 1--some of those misses coming on questionable no-calls--and still had a big shot to steal a win. With all of the talk about officiating after Sunday's game, I expect James Harden & Co. to get a fairly called game on Tuesday. The Rockets know that if they're going to win this series, they need to win a game in Oracle, and there aren't many chances after Tuesday. Houston covers.

75-68 LAST 143 NBA SIDES | +100
27-16 IN LAST 43 HOU ATS PICKS | +964

5-3 IN LAST 8 GS ATS PICKS | +180


SEATTLE +125


CHI. CUBS @ SEATTLE | 4/30 | 10:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:12 PM
People keep waiting for the Cubs to break out, and it looks like they might be on the verge after two nice wins at Arizona. But my computer model doesn't believe they should be such a huge road favorite here. Felix Hernandez and the Mariners win 53 percent of my simulations, which as the underdog makes them a great value pick.

33-18 IN LAST 51 MLB PICKS | +1463
18-14 IN LAST 32 SEA ML PICKS | +742

4-0 IN LAST 4 CHC ML PICKS | +455


N.Y. METS +110


CINCINNATI @ N.Y. METS | 4/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:09 PM
Jason Vargas has been a disaster for the Mets, but he's not supposed to be this bad. The Reds, meanwhile, are as bad as it gets hitting on the road, and my computer model favors the pitcher over the hitters in this case. In fact, New York wins a solid 60 percent of my simulations, a number made more impressive by its underdog status.

33-18 IN LAST 51 MLB PICKS | +1463
28-21 IN LAST 49 NYM ML PICKS | +1027

9-4 IN LAST 13 CIN ML PICKS | +593


BOSTON +7.5


BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 4/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:07 PM
The Celtics had the Bucks' number during the regular season -- at least compared to most other teams. That didn't change during an impressive 22-point win at Fiserv Forum in Game 1. The Bucks should come out motivated not to fall down 0-2 in this series, but this is a lot of points to give a team that's hitting its stride and looked so good two days earlier. Boston covers with the points in nearly 70 percent of my simulations.

75-68 LAST 143 NBA SIDES | +100

[Player1]

Big Al McMordie has a big play today (NBA 5* Game of the Year)
Does anyone have that one?

Thank you very much for your help!

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris - MLB (YTD: +31.2 units)

7 Unit Play. Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers -135 over San Francisco Giants (9:45 PM, Tuesday, April 30)
The Los Angeles Dodgers will look for their fifth win in their last six games when they take on the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA on Tuesday night. Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) will get the start for the Dodgers and he will be opposed by Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Giants. The Dodgers have posted a perfect 5-0 record in Buehler's last five starts where he faced a team with a losing record and they are an excellent 4-1 in their last five games where he faced an NL West Division rival. They have also won five of their last six on the road versus a team with a home winning % of .400 or lower and they are an impressive 13-4 in their last seventeen versus a team with that same .400 or lower winning % overall. The Giants, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 17-36 in their last 53 games versus a team with a winning % of .600 or higher and they are an awful 17-38 in their last 55 games overall going back into the 2018 season. They have also lost ten of their last fifteen at home where they faced a right-handed starter and they are 10-22 in their last 32 versus a righty overall. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers have won six of their last eight head to head meetings with the Giants and we're laying what looks to be a short price with them here to get the road win in San Francisco on Tuesday night.

[WeWantMoehr]

Esparza (VSI) - NBA

6 Unit Play. Take #573 Under 221 Houston at Golden St (10:35p.m., Tuesday April 30 TNT)
Tonight is Game #2 at Oracle Arena and if we take anything from Game #1 defense will be played from both sides. The Warriors sneaked out a close 'W' in Game #1 winning 104-100 and the Over/Under was 224 and that game flew 'Under' and tonight I see the same results on a defensive point of view. The last 3 meetings between these two teams all 3 of them have gone 'Under' and the last 10 meetings 9 of them have gone 'Under' the total. Throw in that the Houston Rockets are also trending 'Under' games going 0-4 O/U last 4 playoff games tonight I see this total cashing again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Elsser

1*
San Francisco +1.5 (-125)

3*
Golden state / Houston over 220.5


1*
Seattle +1.5( -120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King creole

2*
Golden state / Houston over 220.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg shaker

3*
Golden state / Houston under 221

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports

MLB
1* Mariners +1.5 runs (-120)
1* Nationals +1.5 runs (-155)
1* Giants +1.5 runs (-140)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

H&H Sports (MLB Top 5* Plays 5-1overall) - 5* Los Angeles Dodgers -135

(MLB Adding) - 4* Arizona Diamondbacks -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Markus (VegasInsider)

NBA
Golden State Warriors -5
Warriors/Rockets Under 221

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tim Wilkinson (VegasInsider)

NBA
Milwaukee Bucks -7
Bucks/Celtics Over 219

MLB - Cardinals/Nationals Over 9

NHL - Columbus Blue Jackets -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider MLB) - San Diego Padres -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia (VegasInsider MLB) - Cardinals/Nationals Over 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George
4 Unit under 219.5 bos/mil

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris
4 Unit under 220.5 hou/gs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
3 Unit Mil -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
4 Unit Hou +5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
3 Unit Mil -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eastman
5 Unit Mil -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

lv wolf
2% over 8.5 balt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Billy Coleman

MLB
4* #973 Cleveland -1.5 runs (-110) (Bauer)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (MLB Underdog of the Day) - Toronto Blue Jays +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Rusk


CINCINNATI -125


CINCINNATI @ N.Y. METS | 4/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:49 AM
What a pitching mismatch at Citi Field Tuesday night. The Reds aren’t the most fun to bet on due to their lack of run production, but with a Luis Castillo vs. Jason Vargas matchup, that shouldn’t be an issue. We have no choice but to fade Vargas in almost every outing as the Mets' shaky fifth starter. In his last outing versus the Reds, he only recorded one out! Yes, lasted a third of an inning. Reds should build off of their victory last night and continue their dominance off of Vargas winning three in a row against him.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
3-0 IN LAST 3 NYM ML PICKS | +325


PITTSBURGH -103


PITTSBURGH @ TEXAS | 4/30 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:46 AM
A case of an eight-game losing streak and what it does to the market. The Pirates, regardless of how bad they may seem right now, are going to find a way to win a minimum of at least 70 games this year. That being said, they will snap out of their funk very soon. Jordan Lyles gets the call for the Buccos and he has gone five strong in every outing this year. A consistent pitcher up against a youngster who hasn’t started 10 games in his major league career with a lifetime 5.40 ERA at home is enough of an edge. I like the underdog here.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
3-0 IN LAST 3 TEX ML PICKS | +300


ARIZONA -139


N.Y. YANKEES @ ARIZONA | 4/30 | 9:40 PM EDT
9:44 AM
The Yankees continue to be a bit overpriced. With all their injuries combining with a road trip that started over a week ago, they are fade material at a very good line. Winning nine out of 10 games shows that regression will occur soon. Let’s jump on it with the D'backs' Zack Greinke who has pitched beautifully against the Bronx Bombers in his last two outings going seven strong and picking up the victory in both. I have the Diamondbacks priced more than -150 at home Tuesday. Take the discount and run.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
8-1 IN LAST 9 ARI ML PICKS | +779

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


BOSTON +7.5


BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 4/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
9:43 AM
The Celtics may be a No. 4 seed, but they're playing like a No. 1, and have been for a while now that they're healthy and Gordon Hayward is contributing as expected. They won Game 1 handily and are still getting a good amount of points. Boston has won nine of 10 and covered in eight of those. Even though we'll see a much better performance from Milwaukee, I still took the points with a Boston team that has put it all together.

99-72-1 IN LAST 172 NBA ATS PICKS | +1975
49-31-1 IN LAST 81 BOS ATS PICKS | +1525

28-19-1 IN LAST 48 MIL ATS PICKS | +709


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:29 AM
The spread right now is the same as it was for Game 1, a four-point Warriors win and a Rockets cover. The non-call against Draymond Green on James Harden in the final seconds, and it could have been even closer if not an outright Houston win. I think the Warriors escaped, and the Rockets will keep it close with another chance to steal a road win. Take the points.

99-72-1 IN LAST 172 NBA ATS PICKS | +1975
33-26-2 IN LAST 61 GS ATS PICKS | +530

3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited

4% Golden st -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

MLB

Texas -108 v pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors
Top-End
1000 UNIT
N.L. Living Lock
Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
OAK F5 +.5 -110 3 units

MLB Season: 24-22-3 52% -13.45 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

nba
5* Milwaukee

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASKETBALL PLAYS


FINN EASTERN CONFERENCE NBA CASH
Game: (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Celtics 7.5 (-105)

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

PLAY: Boston Celtics +7.5 (good to +6)
4% game rating
(571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
There few adjustments that Milwuakee is able to make, considering their bench options, and as I stated in Game 1 of this series the events in this best-of-seven second-round affair is a coin-flip. Getting a touchdown plus worth of handicap is a coup.
The analysis I outlined in the Game 1 of this second-round best-of-seven series was as follows:
The Milwaukee versus Boston game breakdown isn't complicated or convoluted. The variables with Milwaukee and Boston are, in the least analytical terms, saber-simple. The two teams couldn't be any different in terms of how they want to play and what their strengths and weaknesses are.
Ignore, as hard as it may be, the series in the regular season between the two. The Bucks dominated the Celtics in the regular slate if you look no further than the final scores of the four games. However, the real game that was played, the numbers behind the numbers, and the current roster look and man-to-man matchups, favor a Boston squad that is built for postseason play.

The truth is that outside of the Greek Freak the Celtics can handle what Milwaukee puts in front of them. This with a healthy Kyrie Irving and the matchup problem that is named Al Horford.

There are two variables that are a given, trustworthy when examining this game player by player, minute by minute and position by position -- in a nutshell the first line vs the first line and second line vs second line, for the Bucks and Celtics, respectively.

1. The first line of the Bucks finds the offense going through the Greek. What you will find Boston doing is simply walling the Freak from putting his head down and overpowering the defense on his way to the rim. Mark it down and while watching the game witness just how soft the Boston frontcourt play Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Part two of the first given is how the Celtics will approach the game, The Milwaukee defense will, for the second straight game, give Boston looks from beyond the arc. And while they may not shoot for the ridiculously high percentage they did in Game 1, they will get open looks. Hit their season average and they win, for a second straight game.

It is safe to ignore what the Celtics did on both ends of the floor against Indiana. The Celtics' sweep of the Pacers made them appear to be more efficient offensively than they really are or can be. But the Bucks are everything but defensive minded.

Investing into Boston plus the points in this Game 1 was easy. And while it isn't likely to be a rerun in Game 2 once again this is a pick'em affair in which the books are offering a butt-load of value on the handicap.


BOSTON CELITCS +7.5

BASEBALL PLAYS


FINN MLB DOUBLEHEADER GAME I
Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Diego Padres +100

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

PLAY: San Diego Padres +100 (good to -110)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Paddock and Teheran
(955) San Diego Padres at (956) Atlanta Braves
The slot that Teheran holds in the Braves starting rotation is likely a temporary assignment... as long as the team continues to get the rest of the staff healthy and begins to tinker with the bullpen and their young farm arms. Teheran is as consistent as they come in terms of veteran pitchers. However, what he was and what is is today, albeit consistent, is middling at best. And not one of the three pitchers that Atlanta will use in their postseason rotation, if this is where they fit at season's end.
Teheran recorded his first quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER) against the Reds this past Thursday. The result was still a loss for the Braves and their starter. The righty struck out 7 batters while giving up 6 hits and walking 3. Teheran has been consistently inconsistent this season, looked at from an casual baseball eye. But his success will depend a lot on the home plate umpire and his teammates run production. If you wish to title success in the way of wins and losses.
His 2019 BB/9 of 4.83 is well above his career average of 2.89. Teheran’s walk rate has increased each of the last two full seasons and it’s on its way to being a third consecutive season here in 2019. In 2016 (his last acceptable season for mlb investors) Teheran’s BB% was 5.4% and his ERA was 3.21; since then his BB% has steadily increased (12.0% so far in ‘19) and his ERA continues to grow.
His 2019 ERA is now at 5.40 and his WHIP is a bet against 1.58 (primarily due to the walks).
The Padres rookie starter Chris Paddack has the signficant advantage the first two times though the Braves lineup tonight. He notched his first career victory Wednesday after one-hitting the Mariners over seven scoreless innings. Paddack retired 19 batters in a row at one point and finished with nine strikeouts against only one walk. He comes into this contest with a 1.67 ERA over his first five starts with a 30:8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. Most important is that while his ERA doesn't equal his xFIP they are much closer than one would expect from a rookie.
The Braves bullpen is in turmoil while the Padres success has come via their starters and pen. The Braves have not had a live look at Paddock and scuffle throughj the first five innings of tonight's contest -- evenentually getting a win and evening the cuirrent series at 1-game-each
SAN DIEGO PADRES +100

FINN TUE MLB DOUBLEHEADER GAME II
Game: (959) Los Angeles Dodgers at (960) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -134

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

PLAY: LA Dodgers -134 (good to -140)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Buehler and Pomeranz
(959) Los Angeles Dodgers at (960) San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers ace hasn’t been ace-like to begin the season, but he’s coming off a strong performance against Cincinnatti followed by holding the Cubs scoreless through 5 2/3 innings.. before hanging a breaking ball that Javier Baez crushed for a three-run homer. The Dodgers right-hander has seen his SwStr%, first strike %, and chase rate drop but despite the aforementioned peripherals opposing batters are still not making solid contact, particularly in the zone, where Buehler is sporting a great 80% zone contact%.
Left-hander Pomeranz earned his first victory of 2019 in his last start. He worked six shutout innings against a soft-hitting and left-handed pitcher challenged Blue Jays lineup. The lefty allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out five. It was his first quality start after failing to exceed five frames in his four previous outings. The move from the AL (2-6 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP last year) to the National League will assist in improving his peripherals, both surface and underlying, but he will not and cannot get the neccessary run support to back against quality pitchers and lineups, e.g. Dodgers
LA DODGERS -134

[dawggy]

DWAYNE BRYANTBASKETBALL PLAYS


Game: (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

8:05 PM ET -- NBA

571 Boston Celtics
572 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAY: 572 MILWAUKEE -7.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%

DB's THOUGHTS: I like the Bucks to even things up tonight. Boston embarrassed the Bucks in Game 1 with a 112-90 beating on their home floor. Milwaukee has been a very good home team this season, and teams in this specific role (losing Game 1 at home as chalk of 7.5 points or more) are 23-1 SU and 15-8-1 ATS (65%) since 2003. Looks way too easy to grab Boston and all those points not only because they just won on this floor by 22 points, but also because they are 5-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs so far. When something looks too easy in the sports betting world, it's usually a good idea to go the other way. I expect the Bucks to answer with a double-digit W tonight.

[dawggy]

ROB VENO


BASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (973) Cleveland Indians at (974) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)
Game: (963) Houston Astros at (964) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-105)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


BASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (953) Cincinnati Reds at (954) New York Mets
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds -124

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Luis Castillo is the real deal! 1.23 ERA but a 2.52 FIP in 6 starts...going for his 7th start tonight. His swing and miss rate has gone up each of the last 3 years...his contact rate is an absurd 66%...and his changeup is weighted value at 7.3...best in the MLB by a large margin. Castillo can shut down a solid to great offense and make a mockery of a decent to poor offense...and facing an opponent like Vargas only adds to the pluses.
Vargas is a lefty with an FIP/xFIP split at 6.39/6.66 in 4 starts and through 25 or so games facing left handed pitching than the Cincinnati Reds believe it or not...pretty solid...excellent at home and this is a road game...but still. They are also 4-0 against the RL facing lefties this season and 3-1 SU First 5.

Game: (963) Houston Astros at (964) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Dr. Chuck System A totals at 45-16 since start of 2018 season!

McHugh v. Pineda

8.5 is excellent...8 is solid!

Game: (977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -137

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Big play on the diamond exploiting a very interesting situation where a home team is favores yet in their previous 10 games have not been favored more than 1 single time...and now are laying -130 or more...those teams are clearly chalk for a reason and undoubtedly the public isn't a fan of night in night out dogs...in this spot these teams are 110-49 SU last 3 years...and 81-78 on the Run Line! When the opposing dog is also in the midst of a 3 game win streak the record is 50-26 SU and 29-25 RL...32% ROI! Throw in the opponent tossing a lefty out there and the home team's 14-6 and 10-5 on the Run Line...60%ROI.
CC is going for the Bronx Bombers and while studly at home so far...not so good on the road...and the reason we're laying the bigger money on a team not favored at all recently...Greinke.
This Play is worth a hit on both the ML and RL and this is a very solid trend....hard to argue being on the side Vegas is winking at us with here...not only are the Yankees the Yankees and winning a ton recently....you smell a rat...you be right...

Game: (977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

[dawggy]

CAL SPORTSBASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Colorado Rockies -114


#957 4% Colorado w/ Marquez -114 Milwaukee w/ Chacin 7:40 PM
Colorado came into this series winners of 9 of 12 but dropped game #1. No surprise as the Brewers were tossing their best pitcher YTD, Zach Davies, while Colorado was bringing Freeman off the IL and he allowed 4 runs in the first inning. Now the Rockies are starting their best P to date, German Marquez, who in 6 starts has allowed 31 hits with a 37-10 K-w ratio while posting a 0.41 ERA in his 3 road starts. The Brewers counter with Jhoulys Chacin who is 0-3 with a 7.64 ERA his last 4 starts. Despite getting held to one run last night the Rockies are batting .280 the last 10 days while the Brewers are hitting .224.The Rockies have won 6 straight as a favorite

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


DR. CHUCKBASKETBALL PLAYS


Game: (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Milwaukee Bucks -5.0 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

[B*mb07]

Killer Sources Philly Guy - Red Sox Astros Reds Phillies

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
mlb
10 oakland
7 oakland over
7 padres

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
nba
10 bucks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli


UNDER 8.5 N.Y. YANKEES @ ARIZONA | 4/30 | 9:40 PM EDT


6:40 PM
The Yankees have somehow managed to keep winning despite having roughly 80 percent of their Triple-A team on the Major League roster, but Zack Greinke is a tough matchup for anybody, including this team. Still, even if I lean toward Arizona on the ML, I don't love the price. I do like the Under, however.

11-4-1 IN LAST 16 MLB O/U PICKS | +644
7-1-1 IN LAST 9 NYY O/U PICKS | +591


UNDER 8.5 SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA | 4/30 | 7:20 PM EDT


6:38 PM
Even with the addition of Manny Machado, this Padres offense hasn't been great in 2019, and not having Fernando Tatis Jr in the lineup won't help. Still, I'm not super-confident in the Braves lineup against Chris Paddack, and with the wind blowing in directly from center, conditions should benefit the pitchers.

11-4-1 IN LAST 16 MLB O/U PICKS | +644
4-1 IN LAST 5 ATL O/U PICKS | +299


GOLDEN ST. -5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
6:35 PM
I don't care which ref is working the game, nor do I care about the Rockets complaining about officiating in Game 1. I look at this matchup and I see a line that's moved 1.5 points in the wrong direction, providing plenty of value on the Warriors.

73-43 IN LAST 116 NBA PICKS | +2558
3-0 IN LAST 3 GS ATS PICKS | +300


MILWAUKEE -7.5


BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 4/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
6:34 PM
Everyone's convinced the Celtics have already won this series after what happened in Game 1, but I'm not nearly so sure. I don't expect the Bucks to shoot as poorly Tuesday night, nor do I expect the Celtics will make over 40% of their three again.

73-43 IN LAST 116 NBA PICKS | +2558
3-0 IN LAST 3 BOS ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny White


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
4:34 PM
Houston looked like the better team in Game 1, but came up short by four points. the Rockets nearly won despite shooting 41.9 percent from the field, while the Warriors shot 50.7 percent with a 52-39 edge in rebounds. Houston's defense was No. 2 in the NBA post All-Star break and the Rockets should step up their intensity Tuesday in Game 2.


TORONTO +133


TORONTO @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/30 | 10:07 PM EDT
4:10 PM
Riding the Vald Jr. train. The Blue Jays front office, fans and most importantly the players are so excited about this ultra talented 20-year old rookie. I have not seen such fan fare since "The Kid" Ken Griffey Jr. first step on the field of a big league game. Toronto swept Oakland with a four-run come from behind 11th inning victory on Sunday. The Angels are 12-17 down -5.3 units with no bright lights ahead. Griffin Canning, a 22-year-old rookie out of UCLA will get the start for the Angels. Canning has made a strong run through the minors and will be a good one for the Angels for years to come. But tonight he is going to try and step in from of the Vlad Jr. train.

4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB ML PICKS | +400
8-5 IN LAST 13 LAA ML PICKS | +271

3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS | +187


CINCINNATI -120[/B]


CINCINNATI @ N.Y. METS | 4/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
3:52 PM
Reds starter Luis Castilo is coming into his own. In his last outing, he managed to hold Atlanta scoreless over six innings. Castillo now has an ERA of 1.23 and a whip of 0.95. At this rate, we are were looking at the potential 2019 NL Cy Young Award winner laying just -120. Mets starter Jason Vargas has an ERA of 7.20 and didn't last five innings in his last performance.

4-0 IN LAST 4 MLB ML PICKS | +400
4-1 IN LAST 5 CIN ML PICKS | +370

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

NBA Playoffs
8:05 PM EST
Rotation #571-572
Celtics +7.5 over Bucks
MLB
7:05 PM EST
Rotation #951-952
Cardinals -110 over Nationals
Wainwright/Sanchez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

nba
5* Milwaukee

At 8:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston. The Bucks own the best record in the NBA this season, but didn't play like it in Game 1 of this series. The Celtics blew out Milwaukee, 112-90, to take a 1-0 lead in this quarterfinals match-up. The entire Bucks' starting line-up shot the ball poorly, as not one player hit 50% of his shots, and the five starters combined to go 15-50, 30%. As a team, the Bucks were 31-89, 34%. In contrast, the Celtics' starters combined to shoot 34-64, 53%, while their full team was 47-87, 54%. Not surprisingly, the Bucks lost by 22, which was their worst defeat this entire season. However, there is reason for optimism. First, Milwaukee has generally bounced back strong off poor offensive efforts this season. Indeed, in the regular season, the Bucks had five SU/ATS losses, in which they shot less than 40%. But following each of those SU/ATS losses, the Bucks were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, and covered the point spread by an average of 9.3 ppg. That bodes well for Milwaukee on Tuesday night. As does the fact that #4-seeded teams have cashed just 33% (18-36-2 ATS) since 1993 off an upset road win in the Playoffs. Moreover, .687 (or better) teams -- like Milwaukee -- are 100% perfect, 10-0 ATS, in the Playoffs since 2006 as favorites of -5+ points, if they were off exactly one loss, and lost that previous game at home by 7+ points. The Bucks also fall into 23-0, 62-21, 46-11, 100-50, 145-87, 94-42 and 25-1 ATS systems of mine. Lay the points with Milwaukee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th: MLB, 8u: 951 STL-.5+110 1st 5. STL-1.5+150g. 954 NYM+105 1st 5. NYM+110g. 974 MIA+175 1st 5. MIA+180g. 957 COL-.5+100 1st 5. COL-1.5+140g.

[swaminator]

Marc Lawrence Tuesday MLB Key Play - 3* play on the NY Yankees w/Sabathia
Edges -
NYA: Sabathia 6-0 last six team-starts during April, and 2.40 ERA with 0.93 WHIP this season …
AZ 2-10 last 12 games versus AL East foes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JM

The Champ's Pythagorean System Picks For 4/30

Pick #1: [MLB] 4.5* Star: Reds

Pick #2: [MLB] 1.5* Star: Braves

Pick #3: [MLB] 1* Star: Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel


KANSAS CITY +1.5


TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY | 4/30 | 8:15 PM EDT
5:14 PM
In this matchup last week, Blake Snell struggled a bit in his return from a foot injury, allowing three runs while failing to get through five innings. meanwhile, Royals starter Jakob Junis showed signs of becoming the reliable starter they had hoped for -- he gave up one run on four hits in five innings. This is a value price (-110) for pocketing 1.5 runs in the rematch Tuesday.

4-3 LAST 7 MLB SIDES | +123

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exodus to Black

Milw-7.5