Kentucky Derby Selections

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::horse:: GL!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Game winner Win Place & Show net same amount suggests

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jody Demling
EXOTICS UPDATED MAY 2 AFTER OMAHA BEACH SCRATCH
Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."

So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:

Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.

Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Tacitus and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.

$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)

$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)

The trifecta will be a tough on to snare but we'll try two angles.

The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.

$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)

The second has Tacitus singled.

$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)

The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.

$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)

DERBY-OAKS DOUBLE
The Oaks-Derby Double is my favorite wager at Churchill Downs this weekend.

And for good reason.

I have used different combinations to win the wager nine of the past 10 years. It's a wager that takes place in two races on consecutive days - the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill.

It's a wager that more often than not has proven to be a very good play for a return. Since the wager started in 1999, the payout has been under $51 just four times. On the flip side, the payout has been more than $500 on six occasions.

So, let's try and hit a good one.

And remember, if you hit the Oaks winner then you will be able to see the will-pays on Friday night and it won't change.

Here we go:

I was ready to do a $5 bet with Omaha Beach and all in the Oaks, but he's scratched. I'm not as confident in Tacitus or Improbable but let's wheel them both for $2.

$2 Oaks-Derby double ALL (Oaks) with 5,8 (Derby) total ($56)

I still want to make sure I cover myself on the Derby side, so I will use my other top picks up with the top few in the Oaks

$1 Oaks-Derby double 1,3,4,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,14,15,16,17 (Derby) total ($30)

I really like Bellafina in the Oaks, so I will use her on top with all

$1 Oaks-Derby double 4 (Oaks) with ALL (Derby) - total ($20)

And I will use my second pick - Jaywalk - and long shot - Lady Apple - with my other top picks in the Derby

$1 Oaks-Derby double 3,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,5,8,14,15,16,17 (Derby) - total ($16)

The wagers here would total - $122 - which is more than I have ever wager on this bet - but would likely give us a good return.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli

Roadster & win win win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby $10 W/P/S Maximum Security

$4 exacta box- Maximum Security/Improbable/Roadster/Game Winner

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hammerin' Hank Goldberg knew who was going to win last year's Kentucky Derby before it even happened. How? Decades of experience as one of the nation's top horse handicapping experts helps, but he also goes straight to the source.

Last year, Goldberg chatted up Gary Young, who timed workouts in California and had watched Justify race. "Justify kept getting bigger and stronger," Goldberg told SportsLine. "I also talked to Bob Baffert's camp. They know how to train a competitive horse. I knew Justify would win the Derby and Preakness."

He was right. Goldberg was all over Justify from the start as the horse went on to win not just the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but also the Belmont to secure the Triple Crown.

Goldberg has gotten the 2019 season off to a strong start by nailing the winning horse in the Pegasus World Cup. He also nailed the exacta at the Gotham Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, among others. Anyone who has followed Goldberg's lead is WAY UP.

Now with the 2019 Kentucky Derby around the corner, Goldberg is releasing his Kentucky Derby picks for the first Triple Crown race of the year. One shocker: We can tell you he is high on By My Standards, a huge 15-1 longshot.

By My Standards took part in just one Derby prep race, but he made it count, winning the Louisiana Derby. He comes in well-rested and has turned heads with his training times at Churchill Downs over the last week. "He's been getting plenty of talk because he's training so well and his post position benefits him," Goldberg told SportsLine. "By My Standards has a strong chance to hit the board and he'll have a very appealing price at the Kentucky Derby 2019."

Goldberg is also all over ANOTHER darkhorse to take down the Kentucky Derby. This horse has all the tools to put together a complete run, and if the horse hits as Goldberg expects, you could be looking at a COLOSSAL payout. You ABSOLUTELY need to see which horse it is before making your Kentucky Derby picks.

Here are Hank Goldberg's favorites, fades and picks for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Horse number in parenthesis

Five horses I like, in projected order of finish:

(8) Tacitus (5-1) -- He got a good draw for his running style, he'll be coming off the pace, and (jockey) Jose Ortiz will be able to get him into position. I like his odds here. This is the horse that (trainer) Bill Mott says the longer he goes, the better he does. In the Wood Memorial he got slammed out of the gate, almost went to his knees, still won easily and galloped out great. He's my No. 1 horse.

(5) Improbable (5-1) -- Everything is breaking Improbable's way. He drew Post 5, which is a great spot for him. He's in a perfect position. I like this horse a lot. He's working great. He shouldn't be bothered by the post. He's the only Bob Baffert horse who drew well.

(13) Code of Honor (12-1) -- Trainer Shug McGaughey's horse, he ran third closing at the Florida Derby. But the way that race was run, he had no chance coming off the pace. There's enough pace in the Derby that it will benefit him. He comes from the back of the pack, but he drew well and he has good odds. He's going to have to get through horses but I think he comes through. Shug has won this race before, he knows how to get a horse ready, and he'll be well-rested.

(16) Game Winner (6-1) -- He got a terrible draw, No. 16, right next to Roadster, but losing Omaha Beach makes him the favorite. He has a tendency to drift out, so an outside post is no good for him. He's got too much pace, and stalkers on the inside. He's going to have a difficult time from out there, but is a very talented horse and still worth a spot in some of your bets.

(3) By My Standards (15-1) -- He's getting a lot of talk because he's training so well. He won the Louisiana Derby, and he got the No. 3 post is a good position for him. He and Improbable will probably be running together.

Three horses to fade:

(17) Roadster (9-1) -- He's going to have a difficult time getting into position from out there. That's not very good, he could get into all kinds of trouble for his running style. He's got to get into position. Improbable is inside of him, the other big stalker. He's right next to Game Winner -- they have similar styles, they could hook up behind the pace and both have trouble.

(7) Maximum Security (9-2) -- He got an easy trip in the Florida Derby, ran slow fractions and nobody challenged him. I don't think he'll keep up here.

(6) Vekoma (22-1) -- He and Maximum Security are going to be next to each other, two of the speed horses. I think he needs to have the lead, and don't think he's necessarily going to have it in the Derby.

EXOTICS

Exacta box 5,8,13

Exacta box 5,8,16

Exacta box 3 with 5,8,13,16

Superfecta box 5,8,13,16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dick Jerardi
7,3,5,17

[dawggy]

--TONY FINN

BASKETBALL PLAYS

NBA PRIVATE PLAY GREEN VS HARDEN RD 3
Game: (589) Golden State Warriors at (590) Houston Rockets
Date/Time: May 4 2019 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Golden State Warriors 4.0 (-108)

View Analysis

PLAY: Golden State Warriors +4 (good to -1)
4% game rating

(589) Golden State Warriors at (590) Houston Rockets

The thought that yesterday's "Death Lineup" in Golden State was a term that had been overused and was a variable of the past for the Warriors was and variable that gave the Houston Rockets issues in a head-to-head affair against the Warriors. Thing is, that old term, and scheme, is alive and well in 2019.,

For the casual NBA'er, those who watch Thursday night NBA on TNT or wait until the postseason to catch-up on the season events, the "death lineup." was first introduced by Kerr and company decided that his guys were not going to be compared or placed in the same container with a west coast baller that were called "Showtime" under the leadership of, at the time, the biggest and tallest point guard in the history of the league, Magic Johnson.



Kerr not only wanted five players that could score -- mark it more as dribble and score -- but a squad that could present a high level of pressure defense to opponents that no team in the history of the game had executed, combined, mind you.



It began with the scoring piece of Stephen Curry which was in 2009. In truth it took four-years, four drafts, for Kerr to construct what are the current-Warriors. Again beginning in the first round of the 2009 draft with the seventh overall pick -- Curry out of Davidson. The 2010 draft presented what was expected to be a key piece in Ekpe Udoh who is now with the Utah Jazz. Klay Thompson arrived on the scene in 2011 followed by what might be the most significant player in Kerr's plan.. a versatile NBA player that was versatile enough to play inside, outside, shoot, rebound and defend and do so with an attitude and arrogance.... he arrived via Michigan State in 2012... that player being over-the-top Draymond Green.



Green is and would have been too much for most Association coaches to handle but not Kerr. The best way to describe Green's career is not in statistical terms.. but in a picture of the player and his results. The picture of Green would be (in one sentence and poorly painted) an arrogant hoop Diva that challenges his teammates, older and younger, with fits of raging and screaming conversations, addicted to technical fouls and league suspensions that plays without fear of being injured and is lazy and/or uncaring with his social media responsibilities.. Oh yeah (make that two sentences) and a player that will and has done whatever it takes to win... something Green has contributed to Golden State and accomplished on not just talent but with a rare glaring and even a bit of delusional arrogance.



This series has seen, more than at any point during the 2018-19 regular season, the return of the "death lineup" and the result have the Warriors up 2-0 over the Rockets despite missing that something. That "X" that marks the spot and the swagger that be it the same group of guys that the last pair of DubNation squads had that this one doesn't, or seems not to own. In defense of this current group the Game 2 victory presented evidence that that Curry and company have been holding out. Waiting for the right time, if you will, to expend precious energy that this team has bottle. And the term "bottled" is used tightly... because it isn't easy to execute or produce. This Golden State group, give and take a player or two, has been playing basketball year round for far too long. Especially using the God given talent and limited heart beats it takes to play at the level the team did, in this day and age of media coverage, and win two consecutive world championships.



This Warriors team, in not just my opinion, but in what they have showed beginning at the end of Game 1 of the current series with the Roks and throughout Game 2, which wasn't as close as the 115-109 victory -- was the return of the "death lineup" and especially Green.



Please don't let anyone tell you, especially coach Kerr, that his rebranding of the "death lineup" to the "Hamptons 5" nickname this season - due to the addition of De Cousins - is alive and in place. De is injured and the Hampton 5 were never officially in copy-write status, hence the accurate and exciting return of the "death lineup" leatherheads.



Etched in stone I will, after tonight, staking claim to the fact, not my opinion or belief, that the Curry-Durant-Thompson-Green-Iguodala lineup will prove to be most difficult combination for the Rockets to get beyond... even on their home floor... and essentially not only offer eye-candy of such but statistical evidence when the final horn has sounded.



Green, bar any season, be it college or pro, has more energy and stamina at this juncture of the season than at any point in his hoop career. He is Harden's fricking nightmare.. his kryptonite.. especially when he is as energetic as he is on are the freshest looking legs of any NBA grinder I can remember watching in any May... not just a lower case any but ANY season I have covered the NBA.



The pick/roll and screening schemes that D'Antoni has devised to make James Harden who he is... do not work against Green and the Warriors defense. Not only is Green a pimple on Harden's arse he has had the spirit, the conditioning and the legs to not just punch Harden in the mouth in the screening situations but recover in time to defend Capela.. or decide to foul the 50 percent free throw shooting Capela.



So take that Magic and you Showtime Lakers. Who'd-a thunk that Michigan State would have produced the first and second best modern day five-tool point guards in the history of the NBA.. that being the best every and the second best, Draymond Green and then Magic Johnson, respectively.



No analysis needed other than Green once again is a thorn in Harden's Nike's and the painful pimple that just won't go away on the back end of Harden for the entire game tonight.. an event that the Warriors are more likely to win by double-digits, than lose... period... case closed.



GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +4