Service Plays Sunday 7/7/19

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Women's World Cup Soccer

5 Unit Play

USA -1

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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 7)

The model has 8 totals and 3 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
952 .5* PHI/NYM u8.5 -111
954 .5* MIA/ATL u9.5 -110
957 .5* STL -113
959 .5* COL -119
960 .5* COL/ARI u9 -110
962 .5* SD/LAD u8.5 -110
968 .5* TB/NYY u8 -110
969 .5* LAA +147
970 .5* LAA/HOU u10.5 -113
978 .67* KC/WAS u10 -113
980 .5* CHC/CHW u10.5 -111
https://www.cleardatasports.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/7-7-MLB-Baseball-Handicapping-Software-1024x442.jpg

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Soccer - Sunday's Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith @ VegasInsider
Women’s World Cup - Copa America & Gold Cup
Toby has cashed 68% of all Soccer Wagers in these 3 Tourney's..

FIFA Women’s World Cup Final Betting Preview
Netherlands vs. USA (FOX, 11:00 a.m. ET)

There is a feeling among supporters that the United States women have done the hard part of winning their fourth FIFA Women’s World Cup. They are a shorter price to win the final against the Netherlands than they were in their quarterfinal victory over France and their 3-1 win against England in the semis.

The favourites are 2/5 to win the final in normal time with the draw available at 7/2, and the Dutch 13/2. The US are 1/6 to lift the trophy, with an upset priced at 4/1.

The US were given a scare by England, eventually winning the match 3-1. Their opponents had a goal ruled out for VAR, and also missed a late penalty with the score at 2-1.

But in the end the result was deserved, especially as Morgan Rapinoe, who had scored twice against both Spain and France in the last 16 and quarterfinals. The US showed again that their fitness, tactical nous are probably unparalleled in the women’s game.

The road to the final has been harder for the Netherlands. Though they ended up winning all three group games, they left it until the 92nd minute to beat New Zealand in their opener. Their last 16 win over Japan came courtesy of a rather lucky late penalty, while they needed extra time to edge out Sweden in the semifinals.

But they have a talented forward line, most notably Arsenal’s Vivianne Miadema.

The US have conceded in all their knockout games, showing that there is a genuine possibility of the Dutch winning this match.

The Americans will have to guard against complacency, but realistically they should win the final with some comfort. The best bet is to back an entertaining game, following the general theme of the tournament.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals at 17/20
Prediction: Netherlands 1-3 USA
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONMEBOL Copa America Final Betting Preview
Brazil vs. Peru (ESPN+, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Brazil are red-hot favourites to continue their run of winning every Copa America hosted on home soil as they face Peru in the legendary Maracana stadium in the final.

Peru are surprise finalists, and the fallout in Brazil if they fail to oblige at odds of 1/8 to lift the trophy will be huge and toxic. Peru are 6/1 to be victorious, while the 90 minute market has Brazil at 3/10, a draw at 4/1 and Peru at 10/1.

The road to the final has been slightly awkward for Brazil, who have been without Neymar all tournament. At times, they have had to win ugly - in the 3-0 opening day win against Bolivia as well as the 2-0 semi-final win against Argentina. They had to defend for long periods against Argentina, and were grateful to the efficiency in front of goal of forward pair of Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino, both of whom have struggled to make that centre-forward spot their own.

Twice they have been held to 0-0 draws by unfashionable, yet stubborn opposition in Venezuela and Paraguay, the latter being defeated on penalties in the quarters.

Only once has it all clicked - and that came in the 5-0 demolition of Peru in São Paulo. There, Brazil got in front early, partly thanks to some suicidal Peruvian defending, and ran away with an easy win.

Before the semifinals, Peru had only beaten Bolivia. They were absurdly lucky to qualify through the quarters against Uruguay, winning on penalties after their opponents had had three goals ruled out by VAR. But they turned in arguably the result of the tournament to upset Chile 3-0 in the semi-finals. Again though, Peru were helped by terrible mistakes early on from Chile, and their goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was the man of the match as Peru lost the shot count by 19 to 9.

Peru are unpredictable, and no-one symbolises that more than Gallese, who was hopeless in the loss to Brazil. They are a quick, exciting team, but there is a lack of height in the side as well as a tendency to miss big chances when it matters.

The South American mantra is that finals are there to be won; they are not there to be played. Do not expect a classic. Brazil have not won a trophy since the 2007 Copa America, and any win here will do.

Tip: Brazil to win to nil at 4/5
Prediction: Brazil 2-0 Peru
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONCACAF Gold Cup Final Betting Preview
Mexico vs. United States (FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The big question at the start of every CONCACAF Gold Cup is: “can anyone stop Mexico or the US”? Sometimes, as in the last two editions, we have to wait until the final to find out. Now, we know already. The two heavyweights have safely negotiated the group stage and two knockout rounds to reach the final.

But the road to Soldier Field, Chicago, has been tough for both sides. The US won their first two group games by an aggregate of 10 goals to zero, but their last three wins have all been much closer.

First they beat Panama 1-0, then they won by the same scoreline against lowly Curaçao, who had been ranked 250/1 outsiders to win the competition. The semis saw a match against Jamaica, losing finalists in the last two Gold Cups. The match was relatively even, with the US narrowly winning the shot count 18-16, and had to wait until the 87th minute before the magnificent Christian Pulisic put the game out of sight to seal a 3-1 win.

Although Mexico sailed through an easy group, their run in the knockout stages has been more fraught than their opponents.

Costa RIca’s failure to win Group B meant that they played Mexico earlier than predicted, and Los Ticos took their opponents all the way to penalties after a 1-1 draw. In the semi-finals they were held to a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes by Haiti, and only qualified thanks to a penalty by Wolves’s Raul Jimenez three minutes into extra time.

Mexico still go into the match as favourites at 5/4, with both a US win and a draw priced up at 11/5. Mexico are 4/6 to lift the trophy; the US are 6/5.

Mexico, as they always do against local opponents, will look to dominate the ball, but unlike Haiti or Costa Rica, they will be facing a side who will not be content to just soak up pressure and not make any mistakes. Gregg Berhalter’s side will fancy their chances of hurting Mexico, especially given Pulisic’s improved form over the tournament. Mexico boss Gerardo Martino called him “one of the greatest emerging players in world football in this epoch” ahead of the match.

To win, the US will need to have enough possession to create chances. That is the biggest battle, as Mexico’s midfield is undoubtedly better at circulating the ball. The match prices look fair, so the value lies elsewhere with another high scoring game at this entertaining competition.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals at 13/10
Prediction: Mexico 2-2 USA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nascar - Coke Zero Sugar 400
VegasInsider - Micah Roberts

Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway's 2.5-mile high banked layout will mark the halfway point in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season. It's the third race of the season on the two tracks between Daytona and Talladega formerly known as restrictor-plate races.

However, it's only the second race using this current race package with cars featuring aero ducts, taller spoilers, and engines producing 550 horsepower. Denny Hamlin won the season-opening Daytona 500 but was using last season's package.

When setting up my personal ratings for this week's race that features lots of unknowns because of the package debut at Daytona, I started with what happened in April's Talladega Superspeedway race that saw 37 lead changes among 15 drivers. What stood out the most was Chevrolet appearing to have an edge with the new package as six of the top-eight finishers drove the Camaro, including the first three finishers.

Hendrick Motorsports had a 1-2 finish in the Geico 500 with Chase Elliott winning the first race of the season for Chevrolet and teammate Alex Bowman was runner-up. Bowman stepped up last week in the final half of the Chicagoland race to lead 88 laps and win his first career Cup race.

I gained tons of respect for Bowman in the final seven laps when Kyle Larson reeled him in to erase a 3.4-second lead and eventually make the pass. It looked like the race was over and Larson had the much better long-run car. I thought there was no way Bowman could bounce back, but within two laps there was Bowman trading paint with the rear side panel of Larson's No. 42 and then did a little side-drafting to slow Larson's momentum and make the winning pass to retake the lead with five laps to go. It was big league stuff, but almost as important was that Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet got a win on a 1.5-mile track that only two organizations had won on in the first races on those types.

“I'm still pretty speechless," Bowman said of his first win. "I was able to go home and enjoy it even more with my friends and team and we won the race! I am just so thankful for Hendrick Motorsports, Axalta, Nationwide, LLumar, Valvoline and Chevrolet for believing in me. They stuck behind this team and it means so much. I am extremely thankful for this opportunity with this No. 88 team and Greg Ives. Greg is a great crew chief and I am so happy to get my first win with him.”

So the scoreboard for the season has Joe Gibbs Racing with 10 wins, Team Penske with five wins, and now Hendrick with two wins. The biggest surprise not on the scoreboard has been Stewart-Haas Racing with no wins after having seven wins through the same juncture last season led by Kevin Harvick's five wins.

The new package at Talladega also was a stark contrast to the Daytona 500 that used last season package with restrictor plates. Joe Gibbs Racing finished 1-2-3 led by Hamlin's second career Daytona 500 win, but at Talladega, they had a rough day with Kyle Busch doing the best finishing 10th. Last seasons Coke Zero 400 winner Eric Jones finished 19th, Martin Truex Jr. was 20th and Hamlin was involved in an accident and only completed 80 laps finishing 36th.

“We had a great race earlier this year in Daytona, but this weekend will be entirely different,’’ Hamlin said. “Just like all the other teams, we have learned a lot about ourselves in the weeks since the Daytona 500 and we will be fighting for a repeat win, but we are ready and preparing for the challenge that is coming our way.’’

Hamlin is a great starting point in regards to a betting strategy at 10/1 betting odds. It's hard to keep someone out of the equation who has led laps in 19 of his last 24 Daytona starts and finished sixth or better in seven of his last 11 starts there. He gets out to the front to avoid "the big one" behind him, but he couldn't avoid being in a six-car wreck at Talladega with the new package. And that's kind of the dilemma here: new package results at Talladega versus past history in plate races, specific past history at Daytona, and current form from the entire team ranging from the driver, pit crew, car chief, and crew chief.

Kyle Busch has four wins on the season and 15 top-10s in 17 starts, but in 28 Cup starts at Daytona his only win came in the 2008 July race. Part of the delight of races at Daytona has been how equal most of the cars are giving just about any driver a chance to win. The edge Busch has on most tracks evaporates at Daytona and Talladega.

An observation to note from April's Talladega race was that it appeared the Chevrolet and Ford teams ganged up on the JGR Toyotas. They let them hang out to dry in the draft several times. The JGR cars didn't have any friends and when Kyle Busch got to the lead it didn't last long -- led three times for four laps. There's no reason to believe things will be any different Saturday night. It worked well for Chevrolet then, why not this week too.

The best Talladega performance for Ford was Penske's Joey Logano, winner of the 2015 Daytona 500. He kind of did what he wanted throughout the race and got the front nine times while leading 37 laps. His teammate Brad Keselowski has similar stuff and led twice for 10 laps before finishing 13th.

Keselowski is the active leader with six wins combined between Daytona and Talladega, but his only Daytona win came in this July 2016 race. Logano and Keselowski have been posted as the co-favorites with 8/1 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for good reason.

I'm expecting the SHR cars to run well and it's not just a desperate Harvick who has two Daytona wins, but it's also because of 2016 Daytona winner Aric Almirola who had the best performance at Talladega among the organization with ninth-place while leading three times for 27 laps. Almirola, a Tampa, Florida native, was leading on the last lap during the 2018 Daytona 500 but got bumped out of the and by Austin Dillon. The Superbook has Harvick at 10/1 odds and Almirola at 14/1.

There's a lot to go over before placing a wager but I'm leaning towards the current form angle coupled with Talladega results and my own personal greed of being attracted to great value on the odds board. Hendrick and Chevrolet are on the rise and that includes Jimmie Johnson who finished fourth last week at Chicagoland.

“Chicago was a huge step forward for this No. 48 team. Huge," Johnson said. "I’m proud of the organization. Everyone is working hard. This gives us some momentum, but this weekend in Daytona is such a different animal, you know. We go down there, want to be fast, hope to be lucky and good. We obviously had great cars in February, had fast cars at Talladega, you just have to hope not to get caught up in anything.”

Being a seven-time Cup Champion and winning 83 career races does tremendous things for a driver's ego and confidence, but not winning in the last 76 races is almost equally as crushing on the negative end. Last week's nice run was a big boost for the team and I'm certain HMS has some fast cars with nice set-ups ready to challenge for the Daytona win using this package.

Johnson won the non-points Clash prior to this seasons Daytona 500, but that was using the old package with restrictor plates. He's a three-time winner at Daytona and the Superbook is offering 25/1 odds to win Saturday to end the worst drought of his career.

The desperation angle is something I like as well. He's staving for a win. He's going to take every chance he gets to bump anyone between him and the checkered flag to get a win. No more Mr. Nice Guy and no more Mr. Corporate NASCAR driver. I'm expecting a revived Johnson to battle his teammates for the win and you better believe neither Elliott, Bowman, or William Byron are safe from a bump and run if Johnson is behind them late in the race.

Go get 'em, Champ!!!

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (25/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
5) #9 Chase Elliott (10/1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben burns

3* la dodgers -153

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Stephen Oh

Los Angeles Angels +142 Urq

CHI. CUBS -165


CHI. CUBS @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/07 | 2:10 PM EDT
1:17 AM
White Sox starter Ivan Nova is 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA in seven starts at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. In his past seven starts anywhere, he is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. My model says the Cubs win this game more than two-thirds of the time, so you're getting solid value even at this price. Take the North Siders.

110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
20-13 IN LAST 33 CHW ML PICKS | +721

11-6 IN LAST 17 CHC ML PICKS | +449


BALTIMORE +154


BALTIMORE @ TORONTO | 7/07 | 1:07 PM EDT
1:05 AM
Toronto starter Trent Thornton is coming off the worst start of his career: seven runs, 11 hits in 2.2 innings. Do those numbers make you comfortable taking the Jays as a heavy favorite? Meanwhile, Asher Wojciechowski is making his second start since being traded from the Indians. His first start was better than the numbers (four runs and five hits in 5.1 innings) indicate, and he was effective in 15 starts in Triple-A (3.61 ERA in 15 starts). Be bold with Baltimore.

110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
39-23 IN LAST 62 TOR ML PICKS | +1643

11-7 IN LAST 18 BAL ML PICKS | +249


L.A. ANGELS +142


L.A. ANGELS @ HOUSTON | 7/07 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:25 AM
The Astros are 38-18 when Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole or Wade Miley starts. They're 18-15 when anyone else does. On Sunday, the unheralded Jose Urquidy, who gave up two runs on six hits in 3.2 innings in his major league debut five days ago, makes his second career start for Houston. His inexperience and an Astros lineup that's nowhere near its best make this money line a solid value. Roll the dice with the Angels.

110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
29-21 IN LAST 50 HOU ML PICKS | +1178

12-5 IN LAST 17 LAA ML PICKS | +785

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPARTAN

2* Washington -1.5(-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

Cleveland -124 Bau

COLORADO -133


COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:10 AM
German Marquez has a 3.06 road ERA, and the Rockies usually play well behind him. They've won 13 of his last 16 starts on regular rest. Lay it

29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB ML PICKS | +1584
22-13 IN LAST 35 COL ML PICKS | +611

2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +57


CLEVELAND -124


CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 7/07 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:00 AM
Trevor Bauer faced the Reds on June 11 and allowed one run over 7.2 innings. The Indians have won his last five starts, and they've won nine of their past 11 visits to Cincinnati. Lay it.

29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB ML PICKS | +1584
30-17 IN LAST 47 CIN ML PICKS | +1007

19-10 IN LAST 29 CLE ML PICKS | +790

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN NOVER


3* TOM

Pittsburgh / Milwaukee under 9.5

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FEZZIK

2* Arizona / Colorado under 9

2* New York Yankees / Tampa bay under 8

2* Washington / Kansas City under 9.5

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ANDRE GOMES

3* New York Mets / Philadelphia under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

3* Chicago Cubs -1.5(-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

+EV: MLB 4u: 952 PHI/NYM un8.5 -110 (A Nola | Z Wheeler) (Sunday, July 7th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -105 (1st 5 Innings) (C Anderson | J Musgrove) (Sunday, July 7th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 979 Chicago Cubs -158 (K Hendricks | I Nova) (Sunday, July 7th)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 7/7

100* Yankees -105
100* Rockies -125
100* Over 9 Reds/Indians

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB(Bob Balfe)
1:10 PM EST
Rotation #967-969
Rays -115 over Yankees
Morton/Paxton
The Yankees have owned the Rays this year, but with one swing of the bat the Rays walked it off last night and are riding that momentum. Charlie Morton has been great for Tampa this season and I expect the Rays bats to come out swinging against James Paxton who has struggled on the road. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and are looking to gain a little ground going into the midway point of the season. Take the Rays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

H&H Sports (MLB)

5* Philadelphia Phillies -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eurotigra soccer

Belarus. Vysshaya Liga

FC Gomel - Gorodeja


FC Gomel 0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

1* OVER 7.5 NYY at Tampa Bay

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM

Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!

[dawggy]

ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -107

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)


Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-108)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)


Game: (969) Los Angeles Angels at (970) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-107)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)


Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Accu Picks

MLB
3* #956 Pittsburgh -105 (Musgrove)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Desert sports:

Early release> stl-120 and stl 08. 2 team par

cle-120
tb-110
mil/pit u9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

5% Cubs/Wsox over 10.5
4% Balt/Tor under 10.5
3% Stl/SF under 8

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!




DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS


Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles +160

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Wojciechowski v. Thornton
Dumbest line I've seen in weeks! We ain't stopping now! We win outright with the O's multiple times in a row...as dogs...on the road...and just because the 3rd starter in 3 tries is in a spot start position the line EXPANDS?!
Trent Thornton is no (huge) upgrade over the previous 2 fellas in Richard or Sanchez. Maybe the latter 2 are the worst starters in the league...so that's saying something! Thornton metric-ed out still has a 4.80/4.76 FIP/xFIP split and still walks more than 4 hitters per 9 and still struggles just as much the FIRST time thru the order as the THIRD!...with a 4.84 xFIP!
Look at these words...because they will be fleeting (similar to Jordan Yamamoto being offered at +1.5...
Trent Thornton is a -180 favorite in a major League baseball contest...today on July 7th of 2019. This on the heels of 2 total runs and putting up zero fight in a 4-1 and 8-1 loss
This is still scary a bit betting on Baltimore...but do we really think that groove they're in evaporates with 1 final effort to give before the break?! This ahem almost feels like ahem...one of those "bet of the whateveryouwannacallit" type spots!

Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Baltimore Orioles +165

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)


Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Baltimore Orioles 1.5 (-120)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Wojciechowski v. Thornton

Wow this is an epically DUMB line I cannot skip on! I think if we lose a bet like this I should HAVE to take at least 3 days off (wink wink)

Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM

Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!

Game: (975) Cleveland Indians at (976) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Mahle v. Bauer
Pitcher's duel to start this bad boy off...both pitchers are on the.big time BACK fest and when I can't decide which I like better but it's that tough it's almost too easy to take a first 5 Under.

Screams 1-1 at worst...even yesterday went Under with 4 runs and Tyler Mahle on the road is 2-7-1 O/U on the season!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Assassin Sports

MLB
Top Play - Tigers/Red Sox Over 10
Regular Play - Cleveland Indians -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks
1:10 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. New york mets

pick: Philadelphia phillies (-104)

risk: 11 units

1:10 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Tampa bay rays

pick: Tampa bay rays (-112)

risk: 11 units

4:10 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Arizona diamondbacks

pick: Colorado rockies (-125)

risk: 11 units

[B*mb07]

Augie J - Phillies Braves over Philly Guy - Brewers Phillies Twins Cubs

[dawggy]

SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP




Game: (967) New York Yankees at (968) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees +115

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)


Game: (969) Los Angeles Angels at (970) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Angels +150

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)


Game: (979) Chicago Cubs at (980) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Chicago Cubs -175

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)


Game: (957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -120

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)


Game: (959) Colorado Rockies at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies -135

View Analysis (https://www.wagertalk.com/members/trades#)

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (959) Colorado Rockies at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Colorado Rockies -130

View Analysis (https://www.sportsmemo.com/members/trades#)

Marquez v. Young
Marquez is 6-1 SU and 5-2 RL facing the Dbacks since start of 2018 and faces the home debut of Alex Young with his 5.06 xFIP and faces the Rockies lineup facing a sweep heading into the break with the best pitcher on the mound and a second straight lefty to face. Bett ing with Marquez and against a sweep of evenly matched divisional foes makes this just an excellent value play and climbing away from us RAPIDLY so grab the best number fast!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 400 rays game under , 500 Indians , 500 giants game under , 400 braves RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports

MLB - Top 3* Plays

3* Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds ~ OVER 9 (-104)

3* Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets ~ OVER 8 (-111)

3* Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates ~ OVER 9.5 (-104)

3* St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants ~ OVER 8 (-102)

3* Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks ~ OVER 8.5 (+102)

Regular 1* Plays

1* New York Yankees (+103) vs Tampa Bay Rays

1* Kansas City Royals (+218) vs Washington Nationals

1* LAA Angels (+147) vs Houston Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia (VegasInsider)

MLB - Yankees/Rays Under 8

Although Blake Snell is coming off winning a Cy Young, Charlie Morton has been far more consistent in emerging as the Rays' top starter. Look for a strong effort here in what should be a pitchers' duel against Yankees' lefty James Paxton, who has dealt with injuries to date but looks to be finding his form, having surrendered two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings. Runs should be difficult to come by here. Ride the low side

MLB - Oakland A's

The A's surrendered a pair of two-run homers in dropping Saturday night's game but should rebound to pick up their 50th victory right before the break. Daniel Mengden pitched six shutout innings in his last road start and fared allowed one run against the Mariners when he saw them in late May despite dealing with control issues. Look for Oakland's offense to break out after being held to their lowest-scoring output in July. The A's haven't lost a series since dropping two of three vs. these M's in mid-June.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Bollman

WASHINGTON -1.5


KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON | 7/07 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:30 PM
Patrick Corbin is 7-5 with a 3.55 ERA this season and 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA at home. He is coming off three straight seven-inning, one run outings and the Royals have the fourth worst OPS in the league against lefties. Jake Junis is 4-8 with a 5.53 ERA and he has given up 10 earned runs in his last two outings. The Nats are 8-2 in their last 10 while the Royals are 2-8 in their last 10. The Nats are 25-20 at home while the Royals are 14-31 on the road.

67-42 IN LAST 109 MLB PICKS | +1633


OAKLAND -136


OAKLAND @ SEATTLE | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:28 PM
Wade Leblanc will be the primary reliever after Matthew Carasiti. Leblanc is 5-2 with a 5.02 ERA this season but he has given up 10 runs in 7.2 IP against the As this season. The As have the fifth highest OPS in the league against lefties this season and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 and they have only scored one run in four innings against Daniel Mengden this season. The As are 4-1 when Mengden starts.

63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
11-5 IN LAST 16 OAK ML PICKS | +705

7-2 IN LAST 9 SEA ML PICKS | +433


PITTSBURGH -122


MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 7/07 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:27 PM
Chase Anderson is 4-2 with a 4.31 ERA this season and in June he is 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA. In 11 innings against the Pirates, he has given up four runs. Joe Musgrove is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA but 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in June. In his last 16 innings, he has given up one run. Christian Yelich is not starting and the Brewers are 20-25 on the road.

63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
6-3 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +271


L.A. DODGERS -169


SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:26 PM
Joey Lucchesi is 6-4 with a 3.91 ERA this season but he is 0-2 with a 6.1 ERA in six starts on the road. Ross Stripling is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 2-0 with a 2.7 ERA in eight appearances at home including four starts. The Dodgers are 37-11 at home while the Padres are 21-21 on the road. The Padres are 8-8 when Luchessi starts while the Dodgers are 6-2 when Stripling starts.

63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +176

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

7-U WNBA PLAY SUNDAY!

Sky over 154

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

7u MLB PLAY SUNDAY EARLY!!!

Pirates-115

[B*mb07]

Marco D 3% Astros -60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA’s. 7star. Total over Oakland game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer MLB 7/7

5* Play Rockies -135

2* Play Angels +150

3*Play Cubs -180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:

SDP F5 +.5 -110 3u

MLB Season: 63-69-7 48% -37.05 units (L14: 11-3 79% +22.80 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy WNBA 3 unit play WSH/LA u162