Thursday 9-19-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence
Sep 19 '19, 8:20 PM in 1d
NFL | Titans vs Jaguars
Play on: UNDER 40 +101

Play - Tennessee-Jacksonville UNDER (Game 301).

Edges - Titans: 2-7 UNDER last nine games at Jacksonville, and 1-3 UNDER last four away games on Thursday … Jaguars: 0-6 UNDER when coming off two losses-exact, and 0-3 UNDER last three division home games … We recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview and Predictions 09-19-2019

The Tennessee Titans have an explosive running back in Derrick Henry and may try to utilize him more when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday in an AFC South contest. Henry has rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries and caught three passes for 87 yards and a 75-yard score in Tennessee's first two games - a 43-13 victory at Cleveland in Week 1 and a 19-17 division loss to Indianapolis on Sunday.

"Derrick's a great player, and you've seen his body of work," Titans tackle Dennis Kelly told reporters. "When he gets rolling, it's hard to bring him down. That's part of our goal (as a line), is being able to get him into his flow and be the player that he can be." Henry rushed for career highs of 238 yards and four touchdowns, including an NFL record-tying 99-yard jaunt, in a 30-9 victory over Jacksonville in their last meeting - also on a Thursday night - but none of that matters after the loss to the Colts. "It's a team thing," Henry told reporters. "So we'll go in and get coached, make our corrections and get ready." Jacksonville nearly stunned the Texans last week but was stopped on a two-point conversion attempt with 36 seconds left in its 13-12 setback at Houston.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Titans -1.5. O/U: 39

ABOUT THE TITANS (1-1): Marcus Mariota has thrown for only 402 yards but has taken care of the ball with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Rookie wideout A.J. Brown has recorded a team-high 125 receiving yards but has yet to find the end zone. Defensive end Cameron Wake, who registered 98 sacks in 10 seasons with Miami, has notched a team-high 2.5 in his first two games with the Titans.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (0-2): Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start in place of Nick Foles (broken clavicle) with 213 passing yards and a touchdown, as well as 56 yards rushing, but the result was all that mattered. "Not good because we lost,'' Minshew told reporters. "We lost. And that's the moral of the story. Silver lining is we have some things we can build on, some things that if we clean up, we can be a really, really good team. That's very encouraging." It is unclear whether or not cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is the only player with 200-plus tackles (202) and at least 45 passes defended (45) since he entered the NFL in 2016, will play on Thursday if he's still with the team after requesting a trade following a spat on the sidelines Sunday with coach Doug Marrone.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Jacksonville second-year WR DJ Chark Jr. (team highs of 11 catches and 201 yards) looks to record a touchdown catch for the third straight game.

2. Tennessee S Kevin Byard (one interception this season) has recorded an NFL-most 13 picks since 2017.

3. The Jaguars have won four straight meetings and six of the last seven.

PREDICTION: Titans 20, Jaguars 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Sep 19 '19, 3:55 AM in 7h
PGA | Rory McIlroy vs Paul Casey
Play on: Rory McIlroy -105 at jazz

1* GOLF - Free Pick on Rory McIlroy -105
This play is on Rory McIlroy to outperform Paul Casey at this week's BMW PGA Championship. It will be played at Wentworth Golf Club in Surrey, England.
This will be the first action for Rory since he took home the Tour Championship and that record $15 million prize. I look for McIlroy to continue his impressive play at an event he knows well.
McIlroy was runner-up to Francesco Molinari here a year ago and won this event 5 years ago. He's excited about the decision to remove some fairway bunkers, which will let him take advantage of his length a little more off the tee. Take McIlroy!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson Sep 19 '19, 1:00 PM in 16h
PGA | Byeong-Hun An vs Lucas Glover
Play on: Byeong-Hun An -110 at betonline

Free Play on Byeong-Hun An -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Sep 19 '19, 12:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Braves
Play on: Braves -133 at YouWager

1* Free Sharp Play on Braves -133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Sep 19 '19, 12:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Braves
Play on: Phillies +150 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Phillies +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti Sep 19 '19, 7:15 PM in 11h
MLB | Cardinals vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -105 at BMaker

The MLB Comp Play for Thursday is on the Chicago Cubs at 7:15 eastern. The Cubs have won 9 of 10 at home vs the Cardinals. They have Hendricks going and he is 11-0 vs St. Louis and has won his last 3 here at home. The Cards counter with Flaherty who is 0-3 here in Chicago. For a solid database system we play against division road teams off a +140 or higher 2+ runs home dog win where they scored 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a home game. These road teams are a dismal 4-16 since 2004. Look for the Cubs to take the opener. For the MLB Free play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-9
Against the Spread 5-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-11

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 20-10-1
Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 14-16-1
Against the Spread 9-21-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-18

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+6.5, ML +250) at Panthers, 20-14
Seahawks (+4, ML +180) at Steelers, 28-26
Colts (+3, ML +155) at Titans, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-18) at Dolphins, 43-0
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders, 28-10
Cowboys (-6) at Redskins, 31-21

Mining Road Wins

-- The San Francisco 49ers (+1, ML +105) paddled the Cincinnati Bengals by a 41-17 score, posting road victories in consecutive weeks to open the regular season for the first time since 1989 when they won three straight on the road in Weeks 1-3 with QB Joe Montana at the helm. The 49ers are averaging 36.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.0 PPG while covering both games at one-point underdogs. Next up will be their home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. The Steelers enter 0-2 SU/ATS, and QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) and RB James Conner (knee) might not be available.

Wounded Wings

-- The Philadelphia Eagles saw several star players leave their Sunday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons, but they held a late 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter before WR Julio Jones broke free for a 54-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play to secure victory for the home side. The Eagles lost WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to injuries, as well as QB Carson Wentz for a brief period. TE Dallas Goedert was also lost to an injury in a game which was super costly to the visitors, and they ended up losing and not covering, either.

Miami Mice

-- For the second consecutive weekend the laughingstock of the NFL was the Miami Dolphins. After opening the season with a 59-10 shellacking from the Baltimore Ravens the New England Patriots strolled into town as 18-point favorites. While the Patriots didn't get off to as quick of a start as the Ravens, they made up for lost time in the third quarter, including a pair of pick-sixes. When the dust settled, the Dolphins were on the short end of a 43-0 score, and they have been outscored 92-10 through the first two games. As such, they have opened as 21-point underdogs for their Week 3 road game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Total Recall

-- The under was 11-3 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, including the games with the top five totals on the board. Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders (53), Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons (53), New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams (52.5), New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (48.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers (48) each cashed the under, and a couple of the results were never in doubt. In fact, the Saints-Rams shootout never materialized, helped out in part by QB Drew Brees (hand/thumb) leaving the game, had a total of 6-3 at halftime. Hopefully you had a few 'under' tickets in your pocket this week.

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of pick-sixes in their blowout loss, but even his best (or worst) efforts couldn't help the total go 'over', similiar to Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, who had two pick-sixes in an 'under' result in Week 1 against the 49ers.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Chicago Bears-Denver Broncos (40.5) game. It was expected to be a defensive grind, and it was. The Bears, who totaled just three points in their opening game loss in Week 1, didn't score their first touchdown of the season until the third quarter. Through eight quarters the Bears have generated just 19 total points, including only one touchdown. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 2-0 for Chicago so far. For the Broncos, they fell at Oakland in Week 1 on Monday Night, and they're 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and the 'under' is also 2-0.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 2, with the Monday Night Football battle between the Cleveland Browns-New York Jets (45) still pending. The 'over' is 1-5 (16.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- As mentioned, the Steelers lost Roethlisberger (elbow) and Conner (knee) to injuries in the first half. QB Mason Rudolph and RB Jaylen Samuels were forced to pick up the slack. Big Ben is set for an MRI on Monday.

-- Brees (hand) banged his right throwing hand on a rushing Rams DT Aaron Donald, and he was unable to return. He will remain in Southern California to see a hand specialist. QB Teddy Bridgewater finished up, and would start Week 3 if needed.

-- Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) missed a chunk of the game at Baltimore due to a wrist injury, but ultimately was able to return and finish up.

-- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee) left the game in Washington due to a knee issue, and he'll go for an MRI.

-- As mentioned, the Eagles lost Wentz (ribs, concussion) briefly before he was cleared to return. Jackson (groin) left in the second quarter and was unable to return, Jeffery (calf) left early and didn't come back. Goedert (calf) also left in the first half and didn't return, while Agholor (concussion) was out for a couple of drives before passing tests and returning to finish.

Looking Ahead

-- The Titans and Jaguars will do battle on Thursday Night Football in Northast Florida, with the Titans installed as slight road favorites (-2.5). They're 1-4 ATS in the past five games inside the AFC South, and 16-34-3 ATS in the past 53 against losing teams. The Jaguars are 3-9-2 ATS in the past 14 games ovoerall, and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight divisional games, so something's gotta give. In this series, Tennessee has covered four in a row, while the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, the Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Duuuuuval.

-- The Jets hit the road trying to cool off the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight against AFC East foes while going 0-5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Patriots have covered seven of the past nine divisional games, while going 40-16-2 ATS in the past 58 at Gillette Stadium, including their 33-3 win against the Steelers in Week 1. In this series, the Jets are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four trips to Foxboro, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, while the under has cashed in six in a row.

-- The Giants and Buccaneers seem to meet fairly frequently despite the fact they're not in the same division. New York has connected in seven of the past eight on the road against the spread. The Bucs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing record, and 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight vs. NFC. In this series, the G-Men are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to the RayJay, while going 6-1-2 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.

-- The Bears and Redskins will square off on Monday night, with the Bears installed as four-point favorites to open. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, although the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The Bears are also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings with the 'Skins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6½) 20, Carolina Panthers 14 (48): The Thursday night game featured a weather delay and a slow early scoring pace as Joey Slye hit four field goals to give the Panthers a brief 12-10 lead halfway through the third quarter. Tampa Bay answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive as the road underdog took a 17-12 lead heading into the fourth quarter on a Peyton Barber score. After a Carolina fumble and a missed Tampa Bay field goal, Barber would be the victim of a safety early in the fourth as the Panthers climbed within three points to keep overtime in the range of possibility. Getting good field position after the defensive score the Panthers were stopped on 4th-and-short just past midfield but a pair of punts followed before the Buccaneers extended the lead to six points. Cam Newton and the Panthers got the ball back with just over two minutes remaining needing a touchdown drive and they eventually reached the Tampa Bay 11-yard-line with a new set of downs. Short gains and a penalty left the Panthers facing 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard-line and a direct snap to Christian McCaffrey was sniffed out as the Buccaneers were the NFC South squad to avoid the 0-2 start.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) 19, Tennessee Titans 17 (43½): The Colts had two first half touchdowns but led only 13-7 with another missed PAT from Adam Vinatieri. The Titans scored on a short field after the break to lead 14-13 and then after a Jacoby Brissett fumble, Tennessee added a field goal despite only picking up 14 yards. The Titans forced a punt and had the momentum to put the game away after pass interference call converted a big 3rd down. A few plays later Marcus Mariota was sacked on the subsequent 3rd down and the Titans settled for a kick to go up seven, only this time Cairo Santos missed. The Colts didn’t take advantage on its next possession but getting the ball back with just under seven minutes remaining the Colts were able to hit a big play with a 55-yard-run and got the eventual touchdown to take the lead. Vinatieri would again miss the PAT however to leave the lead in jeopardy. The Titans had an opportunity crossing midfield in the final minute but ultimately couldn’t get the job done as the Colts played a second-straight down-to-the-wire game, this time winning.

Detroit Lions (+1) 13, Los Angeles Chargers 10 (47): The Lions missed a field goal six minutes before halftime and allowed the Chargers to add three before the break to trail 10-6. Matthew Stafford had an interception on the first drive of the second half but the Lions were bailed out with the defense forcing a fumble of Austin Ekeler on 1st-and-goal. More mistakes followed as the Chargers missed two field goals surrounding another Stafford interception before Detroit broke through in the fourth quarter with a big play to Kenny Golladay, leading 13-10. The Chargers reached the red zone late in the fourth quarter but went backwards and Philip Rivers wound up intercepted on 3rd-and-19 before the Chargers had a chance to struggle with the decision to try for the tying field goal from punter Ty Long who was serving as the kicker with Michael Badgley injured.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) 31, Washington Redskins 21 (46): After a scoreless first quarter Washington took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter that held until Dallas hit a 51-yard touchdown with about six minutes remaining. Dallas also managed to find the end zone just before halftime to suddenly take a 14-7 lead. The Cowboys kept the momentum with another touchdown out of the break to lead 21-7 but Washington answered to sit a point short of the underdog number down 21-14. Dallas had a touchdown brought back on a penalty and Washington’s defense was able to hold for a field goal, sitting just one touchdown away from covering the number into the fourth quarter. A promising drive stalled just past midfield and with still more than 11 minutes on the clock Washington went for it on 4th-and-3 and came up empty. Dallas put the game away with another touchdown on the short field. Washington would climb back within 10 with a touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to clear the ‘over’ but they couldn’t get a stop to get the ball back.

Houston Texans (-7) 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 12 (43½): Houston led just 6-3 through three quarters after a scoreless third quarter but the first touchdown of the game came from Deshaun Watson with just over 11 minutes remaining. That touchdown put the Texans past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars down the field for a field goal to trim the margin to seven, with a spread that closed right at +7 from as high as +9½. The Jaguars held on defense to get the ball back and Jacksonville converted two fourth downs on the way to the red zone. With 30 seconds left Minshew connected with DJ Clark and down by one the Jaguars opted to go for the win but came up short on a Leonard Fournette rush attempt.

Green Bay Packers (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 16 (43): After a win in Week 1 but limited offensive production for the Packers in Matt Lafleur’s debut, Green Bay came out firing in the home opener. The Packers scored just over two minutes into the game and eventually went up 21-0 early in the second quarter. Dalvin Cook broke a 75-yard run to break the momentum for the Packers and after missing an early field goal Dan Bailey added three before halftime to put the Vikings back in the game down 21-10 after the Packers opted not to kick on 4th-and-1 from the Minnesota 25. The Vikings thought they added seven on that drive with a three-yard score to Stefon Diggs questionably overturned via replay to call offensive pass interference under the new challengeable rules. Green Bay would fumble on its first possession of the second half and the Vikings added a short field touchdown to climb within five, with Bailey’s PAT blocked. Five straight punts followed as neither offense could get anything going and ‘over’ backers moaned after supposedly sitting pretty with the hot scoring start. The Vikings were poised to take the lead with about five minutes remaining reaching the Green Bay 8-yard-line with a new set of downs but Kirk Cousins made an ill-advised throw to the corner of the end zone that was intercepted on 1st down. Green Bay was able to run out most of the remaining clock to hold on despite the offense disappearing, while the ‘under’ also held on.

Chicago Bears (-3) 16, Denver Broncos 14 (40½): The spread on this game fluctuated a lot after quickly rising from even to the Bears as a slight favorite. A common number was -2 for the Bears much of the weekend but on Sunday afternoon the Bears hit -2½ and eventually -3. Chicago didn’t impress early in the game but managed a 13-3 edge through three quarter to sit comfortably ahead of the number. In the fourth the Broncos completed a lengthy drive to add three points and were poised to tie the game with 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard-line. Joe Flacco eventually was intercepted but pinned deep Chicago punted a few plays later to give the Broncos another shot. This time Flacco delivered including two 4th down conversions and after the touchdown with 31 seconds left Flacco delivered what looked like the game-winning two-point conversion in a huge bold play from Vic Fangio against his old team. It was not to be as a borderline 1st down roughing the passer call gave the Bears a big boost and Mitchell Trubisky struck for 25 yards on 4th-and-15 in the final seconds. Chicago still had a timeout and new kicker Eddy Pineiro became a hero hitting from 53 yards.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (53½): The Falcons had a 17-6 edge in the third quarter of this game but Matt Ryan had an interception deep in his own territory to get the Eagles back in the game. Philadelphia appeared to add the two-point conversion as well but Carson Wentz was ruled down just short of the line as Atlanta held a five-point lead. Ryan would be intercepted in the end zone on the next possession when a field goal could have put the margin to eight points. After swapping punts Philadelphia delivered a tremendous 13-play drive to burn well over eight minutes to take the lead. Up by one the two-point conversion try loomed large on a spread that was commonly +2 before sliding to +1 and the Eagles hit Zach Ertz to lead by three. Atlanta stalled near midfield facing 4th-and-3 at its own 46 when a short pass to Julio Jones to get past the sticks turned into a 54-yard score. Up four Atlanta’s defense still had a lot of work ahead with the Eagles converting an epic 4th-and-14 for 43 yards and getting a free timeout as an Atlanta player was injured on the play. With still a minute to go, an Eagles score seemed inevitable but the Eagles picked up just two yards in the next three plays and faced 4th-and-8. Wentz hit Ertz again incredibly close to the line but he was ruled just short with that spot holding on review as Atlanta escaped with the win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

After last week's piece shifted the focus to the collegiate game, it's back to discussing NFL action this week now that we've got essentially two full weeks under our belt. The Browns and Jets still have to do battle tonight, and some could say that Jets QB Sam Darnold and his mono diagnosis kicked off a brutal week for QB injuries. ON Sunday we saw Saints QB Drew Brees get knocked out of the game with a thumb injury that will have him on the shelf for multiple weeks, and Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisberger is now lost for the year with elbow concerns.

With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement at the end of August, it's been an ever-changing landscape at the QB position so far in the NFL, and chances are it won't end there. The Giants and Dolphins have legitimate questions to ask themselves about who will be their starter for the bulk of the season, and a team like Washington is starting to inch closer to that boat as well.

QB issues aside, Week 3 is always an interesting one as we've now come and gone through Opening Week and Overreaction Week in the betting market, and more data points are out there to use as support. Team identities are starting to get firmer – if their QB has stayed healthy – and for some, it's about potentially preventing their season from going off the rails after a rough start.

It's that notion that I've isolated for this week, as Week 3 brings some of their own interesting betting opportunities for NFL teams that have been money burners (0-2 ATS) or money earners (2-0 ATS) so far. The market has seen (or been burnt) by these teams inability to cash betting tickets, and that in itself can create market disparities in terms of the perception and reality of how good a certain team may actually be.

So it's “perfect” ATS teams in the NFL that are travelling in Week 3 that have become the focus this week. While two of the winless squads – New Orleans and Pittsburgh – have new QB's starting in Week 3 and may be taken much more lightly or even omitted from this following group, the changes at QB are likely to create an even bigger gap in terms of the perception of those squads.

But here are the situations to keep in mind as you go through the week breaking down the board:

Who's Hot

Back the Money Burners on the road
NFL teams that are 0-2 ATS and are playing on the road in Week 3 are 9-3 ATS the past three seasons

This trend seems to be a strong one over the past three years and it's done well in each individual year as well, as the record sits at 7-2 ATS the past two years, and it was 4-1 ATS in 2018. On the surface, a trend like this does make some sense in the idea that 0-2 ATS squads can be a little undervalued after being money burners (for a variety of reasons) through two weeks. Bettors maybe haven't like what they've seen from these squads, have been burned by them for a big wager, last leg of a parlay etc, and or just don't believe they are a capable or competitive team that season. This year we've got six (potentially seven) different teams fitting this role too.

The list of teams that are 0-2 ATS and on the road in Week 3 are Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, the New York Giants and possibly the New York Jets should they fail against the number on MNF. All of those squads do fit different aspects of the reasons behind having yet to cover a spread, and having already discussed the situations that face New Orleans and Pittsburgh this week, I won't go more in-depth on them. But chances are both will be a little undervalued – especially compared to what they could have been with Brees and Roethlisberger under center – and may be worth a look once point spreads are established.

Miami and the Giants definitely fit the bill of being teams that aren't likely to be all that competitive this year, as they've shown nothing to have bettors believe putting their hard earned money down on them is worth the risk. The Giants are currently catching +6.5 points nearly everywhere as they head down to Tampa Bay to face a well-rested Bucs team, while Miami's going to Dallas and currently catching three TD's. I can't imagine either of those sides being all that popular as the week goes on, but points are points and they might actually be catching a few more then they should be given the overall perception of the organizations. Week 3 has proven in the past that some level of professional pride tends to kick in for these slumping squads, and I would venture a guess that at least one of the Giants or Miami ends up cashing an ATS ticket this week.

The remaining two teams that are for sure on this list are Chicago and Carolina, and each are road chalk in Washington and Arizona respectively. Laying points with these “money burners” may look tough to do for some, but it again speaks to the idea that they may actually be a little undervalued right now because of that 0-2 ATS start. The Bears and Panthers are both hovering around laying a FG against their respective opponents, and you can't help but wonder if they were 1-1 ATS already, would these spreads be a point or two higher. That's a question you should keep in mind throughout the week, as if Arizona and Washington find themselves turning into 'public home dogs', it might be best to expect the Panthers and Bears to get into that ATS winner's circle.


Who's Not

Fade the Money Earners
2-0 ATS teams that are on the road in Week 3 are 3-9 ATS the past three seasons

This run is quite the opposite idea of things when you sit down and think about it, as these perfect ATS teams that go out on the road – sometimes for the first time that year – tend to be thought too highly of in terms of either the number that exists out there and/or the perception in terms of generating a strong majority of support from the market. It's been a great two opening weeks for these teams and bettors – the majority of whom love to ride streaks – have no problem backing the hot hand because that's what's worked so far.

So whether or not these lines are actually inflated or not to the side of these perfect ATS road teams can be debated, but just because something has worked twice so far, doesn't mean it will continue to work going forward. That's such a reactive way to handicap in my opinion and being proactive - whether it's getting action down early in the week, finding more predictive numbers/stats to base opinions on etc – will tend to bring you more success.

This year, we've only got one team that fits that role, and it's the LA Rams on SNF as they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns. Depending on how Cleveland performs tonight will have plenty to do with the number that comes out – especially if Cleveland stinks up the joint again and/or loses to a Jets team without their starting QB.

But for a market who was all about backing the Saints this past week with their revenge narrative against the Rams, LA's performance in that game – even with Brees getting hurt – had to increase their stock in the eyes of many, especially those who had the Saints this weekend, and should the Browns lose tonight on MNF, without question an early flurry of Rams money is likely to flood in. That scenario would set up a situation where we'd have a 2-0 ATS Rams team visiting an 0-2 ATS Browns team, and 0-2 ATS teams at home in Week 3 are 5-3 ATS the past two seasons.

It may be then that we see all this Browns love we've seen and heard about in the market for months finally come to fruition, but regardless of what happens on MNF tonight, I'd be hesitant to pull the trigger on the defending NFC Champions next week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 19

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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/19/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 118-154 ATS (-51.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report
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Thursday, September 19

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 3-9-2 ATS in its last 14 games
Jacksonville is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

301TENNESSEE -302 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3


Thursday, September 19

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Game 301-302
September 19, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
132.235
Jacksonville
133.900
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3

Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (0-2)— Jacksonville lost its first two games; star CB Ramsey wants to be traded. QB Minshew was 23-33/178 in his first NFL start. Jaguars are 8-6 in last 14 games as a home underdog; they don’t have a takeaway yet (-3 in TO’s), scored only 21 points in five trips to red zone. Titans converted only 3-20 third down plays; they’re +5 in turnovers in two games. Tennessee won last four series games, winning 37-16/9-6 in last two visits here; they waxed Jaguars 9-6/30-9 in LY’s meetings. Last eight years, Titans are 5-18-1 ATS in AFC South road games; since ’14, Titans are 12-20-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points- they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as a road favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 3
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 19

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Titans have won and covered last four meetings, and six of last seven. Last three in series “under” as well.
Tech Edge: Titans and slight to “under,” based on series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 2:

Road Teams: 21-10-1 ATS
Home Teams: 10-21-1 ATS

Favorites: 13-18-1 ATS
Underdogs: 18-13-1 ATS

Home Faves: 5-13-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 5-8 ATS

Road Faves: 8-5 ATS
Road Dogs: 13-5-1 ATS

Over/Under: 12-20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TNF - Titans at Jaguars
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One week after the Titans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) blew out the Browns to open the season, Tennessee dropped its first game of 2019 in a 19-17 setback to Indianapolis. The Titans were flipped from a 5 ½-point road underdog at Cleveland to a three-point home favorite against the Colts. Tennessee failed to start 2-0 for the 11th straight season, while losing in Week 2 for the first time since 2015.

The Titans have allowed only 32 points in two games, which ranks sixth in the NFL, while yielding 288 yards to the Colts. However, Tennessee trailed at halftime, 13-7 before scoring 10 consecutive points to take a 17-13 advantage heading into the fourth quarter. Jacoby Brissett hit T.Y. Hilton on a four-yard touchdown strike to put the Colts ahead with under five minutes remaining to improve to 14-2 in the last 16 matchups with the Titans.

Marcus Mariota threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in the season-opening blowout of the Browns, but racked up only 154 yards against Indianapolis. Derrick Henry eclipsed the 80-yard mark for the second consecutive week and reached the end zone for the second time in 2019, but not one Tennessee receiver compiled more than 39 yards receiving.

The Jaguars (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) faced their second opponent last week that is coming off a division title in 2018, but had an excellent opportunity to win. After trailing 13-3 in the fourth quarter at Houston, Jacksonville kicked a field goal then got within one point on rookie Gardner Minshew’s touchdown pass to D.J. Chark, Jr. in the final minute. The Jaguars elected to go for the two-point conversion and the win, but running back Leonard Fournette was stuffed at the goal-line and Jacksonville lost, 13-12.

Jacksonville managed the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the offense didn’t bust the 300-yard mark, while Minshew threw for 213 yards in his first professional start in place of the injured Nick Foles. Minshew actually rushed for more yards (56) than Fournette (47) on less attempts, while the Jaguars’ defense allowed one touchdown after yielding 40 points to Kansas City in Week 1.

The big drama surrounding the Jaguars has been the recent trade demand of Pro-Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The former Florida State standout wants out of Jacksonville in his fourth season with the Jaguars following a recent dustup with head coach Doug Marrone during the Houston loss. Jacksonville is off to an 0-2 start for the fifth time in eight seasons, but no team in the AFC South owns a 2-0 record.

AFC SOUTH BREAKDOWN

Only two weeks into the season and three of the four teams in the division have posted 1-1 records. The Colts, Titans, and Texans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. However, Jacksonville is the only team in this group to play two playoff teams from last season in its first two games. The schedule eases up the next six weeks as the Jaguars will face Denver and Carolina on the road (both winless through two weeks), host New Orleans without Drew Brees, travel to Cincinnati, and welcome in the Jets in Week 8 before three straight divisional matchups.

Tennessee plays seven straight non-division opponents after Thursday as the Titans head to Atlanta in Week 4 before hosting Buffalo in Week 5. The Titans face a pair of AFC West foes in Week 6 (Denver) and Week 7 (L.A. Chargers) before taking on the Buccaneers at home in Week 8 and at Carolina in Week 9.

HOME/ROAD SPLITS

The Titans were favored on the road three times in 2018, as Tennessee put together a 1-2 SU/ATS record in those games. Tennessee lost at Miami and Buffalo, but the Titans cruised past the Giants in Week 15 with a 17-0 shutout of 2 ½-point favorites.

Since upsetting New England in Week 2 last season, the Jaguars own a 2-6 record in their last eight home contests (which includes a 24-18 defeat in London to the Eagles), while Jacksonville is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 opportunities in the underdog role.

SERIES HISTORY

Tennessee swept Jacksonville last season to extend its winning streak in the series to four games since 2017. The Titans limited the Jaguars to a total of 15 points in the two victories, starting with a 9-6 triumph as 10-point underdogs at TIAA Bank Field in Week 3. Neither team reached the end zone as Ryan Succop knocked down three field goals in the victory for Tennessee, while Mariota and Henry combined for 108 yards rushing.

The Titans cruised to a 30-9 blowout of the Jaguars at Nissan Stadium in December to easily cash as 5 ½-point favorites. Henry had his breakout game as a pro as the Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns, which included a 99-yard scamper in the second quarter. Jacksonville last beat Tennessee, 38-17 in Week 16 of the 2016 season as four-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

Chris David, a weekly guest on the Bet and Collect Podcast, offered up his total notes for this particular matchup and he touches on the early trend that we’ve seen in primetime spots this season.

He explained, “Bettors playing the ‘under’ blindly in the night games have watched their bankroll grow with the low side going 6-1 through seven games. And the lone ‘over’ ticket in the Saints-Texans matchup was helped with 41 points in the second-half and 13 of those came in the final minute.”

For savvy bettors keeping track of halftime wagers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-0 in the night games. In the second-half of those same contests, we’ve seen more points but the ‘under’ still holds a 4-3 mark.

Even though this total is sitting in the high thirties, David noted that this series has leaned to the ‘over’ recently and an offensive outburst is possible.

“The high side has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, which includes a split last season,” David noted. “Digging deeper, I looked at Mariota’s numbers versus the Jaguars in his career and he owns a 6-2 record in games that he’s started or played in. What’s eye-opening about those eight games is that every season, Mariota and the Titans have been hit or miss offensively. The team posted 30 and 9 in 2018 versus the Jaguars, 37 and 15 in 2017 before scoring 36 and 17 in 2016."

"Going back to his rookie year, the Titans scores 13 and 42. What offense shows up this week is obviously uncertain but this angle should be kept in your betting memory bank when the pair meet later in the season.”

Jacksonville will meet Tennessee in Week 12 at Nissan Stadium from Nashville.

Another notable trend to watch for Thursday is that Tennessee has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight night games going back to the 2016 season while Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run in primetime spots during the same span.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in this week on this matchup as he looks how Jacksonville can exploit Tennessee’s defense, “As expected, Tennessee has good defensive numbers allowing 5.0 yards per play (9th in the NFL), but surprisingly the Titans have struggled against the run by giving up 5.0 yards per rush to offset very strong pass defense numbers. Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass through two weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt (25th in the NFL) while performing better against the run. Having to play Kansas City in Week 1 certainly weighs on the numbers for the Jaguars who could still project as one of the better defensive teams in the AFC.”

From Jacksonville’s standpoint with Minshew making his second start, Nelson points out his numbers haven’t been bad, but the Jags need to score more, “Minshew has been more than adequate with nearly 78 percent completions and 8.4 yards per attempt and just one interception while also offering some mobility but ultimately the Jaguars have only scored 38 points in two games. Last season, six of the team’s 11 losses came by six or fewer points and the Jaguars had two SU wins vs. playoff teams at home.”

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF BETS

After the Chiefs covered both the first and second halves in the season opener, the Jaguars rebounded by covering each half in the Texans’ loss. The Titans have covered in three of four halves this season with first and second half wins at Cleveland, while cashing in the second half against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Tennessee has hit the ‘under’ in three of four halves, with the lone ‘over’ cashing in the second half of the Cleveland game. Jacksonville saw the ‘over’ cash in each half of the Kansas City loss, but the ‘under’ connected in both halves of the Houston defeat.

LINE MOVEMENT

When CG Technologies released their weekly odds in June for every game in the NFL season (for the exception of Week 17), the Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite against the Titans. Fast-forward to now and Tennessee is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite at CG Technologies. The total has dipped to 39, as the ‘under’ has cashed in six of seven primetime games this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 2) at TULANE (2 - 1) - 9/19/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 19

Houston @ Tulane
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tulane
Tulane
Tulane is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4


Thursday, September 19

Houston @ Tulane

Game 303-304
September 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
81.114
Tulane
89.945
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulane
by 9
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 5
56
Dunkel Pick:
Tulane
(-5); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 56-12
Against the Spread 39-28-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 44-24
Against the Spread 32-35-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 203-28
Against the Spread 116-109-6

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 172-55
Against the Spread 106-115-6

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-121-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up
The Citadel (+27.5, ML +1500) at Georgia Tech, 27-24 (OT)
Kansas (+20.5, ML +800) at Boston College, 48-24
Arizona State (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 10-7
Eastern Michigan (+7.5, ML +230) at Illinois, 34-31
Kansas State (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 31-24
West Virginia (+7, ML +220) vs. N.C. State, 44-27

The largest favorites to cover
Louisiana-Lafayette (-47) vs. Texas Southern, 77-6
Texas A&M (-45.5) vs. Lamar, 62-3
Miami-Florida (-41) vs. Bethune-Cookman, 63-0
Missouri (-35) vs. SE Missouri State, 50-0
Notre Dame (-34.5) vs. New Mexico, 66-14
Georgia (-33) vs. Arkansas State, 55-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Cincinnati bounced back from a shellacking from Ohio State last week, topping Miami-Ohio for the cover as 17-point favorites in their rivalry game. 'Under' bettors lucked out a bit (see below in bad beats). The Bearcats are 2-0 SU/ATS at home, while the 'under' has connected in all three of their outings. ... Temple pulled the mild upset over Maryland, 20-17, cashing +180 on the moneyline. UMD opened as high as an eight-point favorite, falling to 5.5 by gametime. The Owls are now 2-0 SU/ATS through two outings with a trip to Buffalo on deck next week. ... Houston fell to Washington State in NRG Stadium on Friday night in a neutral-site battle, 31-24. It was expected to be a high-scoring game with a line of 74, but a scoreless first quarter helped the total go well under. Houston is 0-2 SU vs. Power 5 teams so far, but 2-0 ATS. The 'under' is 2-0-1 for the Cougars in three games overall. ... Navy roughed up East Carolina in the conference opener for both. The Middies won 42-10, easily covering for the second time in as many games as they improved to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'under' 2-0.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Wake Forest outlasted North Carolina 24-18 on Friday night in what was actually not a league game despite both being ACC members. Due to the cross-division scheduling in the ACC, these teams were scheduled to meet once every few years, and the schools wanted to ignite the rivalry on a more regular basis. Wake is now 3-0 SU, but this was their first cover (1-1-1 ATS). ... Georgia Tech wasn't as fortunate, falling to FCS The Citadel in overtime in Atlanta, 27-24. The Bulldogs weren't exactly a powerhouse in the FCS, well out of the Top 25 rankings, and receiving just three votes in the past FCS poll. Embarrassing loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. ... Virginia Tech nearly met the same fate, edging Furman 24-17. To be fair, the Paladins were at least ranked No. 13 in the FCS rankings this past week. That's three games and three non-covers for the Hokies, and the 'under' has hit in each of their two home outings. ... Virginia moved to 3-0 SU with a comeback win against Florida State, 31-24. The Seminoles took the 24-17 lead 11:42 to go, but the Hoos rallied with a touchdown at 6:02. However, they misfired on the extra point and were still down 24-23. With 2:34 to go, UVA scored a touchdown with a two-point conversion, causing the line to push at most shops. The two-point conversion also pushed the total 'over' (54).

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State went on the road for the first time this season and throttled Indiana, 51-10. The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in each of their three game, but this was their first 'over' result - barely. The game closed at 60.5 at most shops. ... Illinois suffered its first setback of the season against visiting Eastern Michigan, 34-31. It was also the first 'over' result after two unders for the Illini. Illinois tied the game 31-31 with 1:44 to push the total over, but EMU booted a 24-yard field goal with no time left to win it outright. ... Penn State was favored by 17 points against rival Pittsburgh, and if that seemed rather high it's because it was. The Nittany Lions won their rivalry game by a 17-10 count as the 'under' comfortably cashed. It was a departure from the first two games when the Lions posted 79 and 45 against Idaho and Buffalo. It was also PSU's first non-cover in three tries. ... Minnesota avoided the upset bug against Georgia Southern, hanging 35-32. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 SU, but 0-2-1 ATS with a pair of 'over' results in the past two games.

BIG 12

-- Kansas opened the week with a win at Boston College, snapping a 48-game road losing streak against Power 5 teams. Les Miles has the Jayhawks sitting at 2-1 SU, but this was their first win over an FBS team and it was the first cover for Kansas in three games. ... Kansas State also took care of business on the road against a Power 5 team, edging Mississippi State, 31-24. The Wildcats have fired out of the box at 3-0 SU/ATS. ... West Virginia upended N.C. State in Morgantown by a 44-27 count. The matchup in 2018 was wiped out in Raleigh by Hurricane Florence, and the Wolfpack likely wish a storm struck before this one, too. The Mountaineers earned their first win against an FBS team, their first cover and first 'over' in three tries. ... Oklahoma State had their hands full at Tulsa, but they eventually pulled away 40-21. The Cowboys actually trailed 21-20 at half. The Golden Hurricane were blanked in the second half helping the 'under' (64) connected. ... Oklahoma routed UCLA behind QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for 99 yards on the team's first drive. The Sooner ended up with the 48-14 win, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS ahead of their conference opener with Texas Tech. ... Speaking of the Red Raiders, they were topped 28-14 at Arizona, 28-14. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for the Red Raiders. ... Texas dropped Rice 48-13 in a game featuring some craziness at the end to affect the line and total (see below).

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic stepped out of conference at Ball State for the 41-31 road victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS on the road so far this season, averaging 31.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The total is 1-1-1 with FAU so far through three games. ... Western Kentucky put a late scare into Louisville side bettors, but the Cards held on for the cover at both 10 and 10.5, depending on when you bet. The Cards had a 31-7 lead at half, and appeared well on the way to an easy cover, but Western fought back to close to 17 with 12:50 to go, but that was the last score of the day. ... North Texas also gave it a nice run at California, but came up short in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green fell behind 20-0, much to the dismay of UNT side bettors and 'under' (50.5) bettors, but North Texas held Cal to just three points in the final three quarters for the cover and under. It was UNT's first cover in three games, and their first under result.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Central Michigan bounced back from a 61-point drumming at Wisconsin last week, topping Akron 45-24 in the MAC opener for both sides. The 'over' has connected in all three games for the Chippewas so far this season. The over has hit in each of the past two for the Zips, too. Akron slipped to 0-3 SU/ATS overall. ...

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Air Force scored one for the Mountain West, following in the footsteps of Boise State earlier this season. The Falcons picked up a road win against a Power 5 team, besting Colorado in overtime, 30-23. Despite the extra session, 'over' (58.5) bettors were still left with a losing ticket. The Falcons are 2-0 SU/Ats heading into their MWC opener against the aforementioned Broncos on the Smurf Turf next Friday. ... New Mexico was unable to pull the stunner in South Bend, as they were blasted by Notre Dame, 66-14. The Lobos have hit the 'over' in each of their two outings, allowing 97 points in two games. ... Colorado State was also unable to join the group, as they were slapped down at Arkansas by a 55-34 count. This game was actually tied 34-34, but the Rams were blanked 21-0 in the final quarter by Chad Morris' group.

PAC-12

-- Oregon State comfortably passed FCS Cal Poly by a 45-7 score, picking up their second straight cover and 'under' result. ... USC was tripped up in overtime by a 30-27 score at Brigham Young, as the Cougars won in overtime for the second consecutive weekend. Freshman QB Kedon Slovis did all right in his first collegiate road outing, but a tipped pass in OT doomed him. ... Another Pac-12 team took it on the chin in a non-conference road outing, as Stanford was unable to slow UCF. The Knights came away with the 45-27 victory, and over (58.5) bettors were aided by a 28-point first quarter by the Knights, and 35 total points after 15 minutes. ... Arizona State scored a touchdown with :50 left in East Lansing, pulling the 10-7 upset at Michigan State. It's the second consecutive season the Sun Devils topped the Spartans by three points, as they upended Sparty in Tempe by a 16-13 count on Sept. 8, 2018. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for AZ State. MSU appeared to have the game-tying field goal to force OT, but they were whistled for 12 men on the field. The next field, five yards back, was no good. ... Utah belted FCS Idaho State by a 31-0 score, failing to cover the 37.5-number. The Utes moved to 3-0 SU, but they're just 1-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-1.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee finally found someone they could beat - FCS Chattanooga. The Mocs were the sacrificial lamb on Saturday, falling 45-0 to the Volts, who win for the first time in 2019. It was their first cover of the season, too, and first 'under' result thanks to the defensive effort. ... Georgia wasn't caught looking ahead to Notre Dame, spanking a pretty good Arkansas State team by a 55-0 mark. The UGA offense has piled up 49.3 PPG through three outings, and they're allowed just 7.7 PPG. ... Alabama was able to ease past South Carolina, 47-23. The Gamecocks hung with the Tide through one quarter, trailing 14-10, but the Tide posted at least 10 points in every quarter and the Cocks could not come close to matching that production. ... Mississippi had their hands full with FCS Southeastern Louisiana, but they were able to get the 40-29 win as the 'over' (53) comfortably cashed. The Rebels led just 34-29 after three quarters.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch. ... Coastal Carolina dumped FCS Norfolk State by a 46-7 score, moving to 2-1 SU/ATS. The defense has allowed just 7.0 PPG in the past two games, both covers.

Bad Beats

-- In that Miami (Ohio)-Cincinnati game, bettors holding over tickets probably thought they were on easy street after a 24-point third quarter gave the game 48 total points on the board through 45 minutes. That's how the game ended after a scoreless final 15.

-- The same situation happened in another game featuring a MAC club. Western Michigan led Georgia State 57-10 after three quarters with a total of 69.5 on the board. After a scoreless fourth quarter, over bettors were left shaking their heads.

-- Alabama was hammering South Carolina by a 47-16 count with a 1-yard touchdown run from RB Mac Jones with 2:04 to go. However, the Gamecocks kept playing to the end, scoring a touchdown with :11 left on a QB Ryan Hilinski touchdown pass, crushing those who laid the 26 1/2. To be fair, the Tide were covering for a total of just 1:53. South Carolina's drive was aided by a targeting call, too, which plenty in the Twitterverse were unhappy about.

-- In the Texas-Rice game, the Longhorns were favored by 32 with a total of 57. With 7:50 remaining in the game, Texas took a 38-6 lead. The Longhorns kicked a field goal with 3:29 to take a 41-6 lead. With 1:07 to go, Rice appeared to secure the backdoor cover, 41-13. However, the Longhorns ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return for touchdown to not only cover, 48-13, but flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

-- Clemson was leading 34-6 in the final minute at Syracuse. They emptied the bench and a true freshman took it to the house to flip a push at most shops into a cover for the Tigers. You'll definitely see this one on SVP.

-- Moneyline bettors were feeling it in Lexington, as Kentucky, a 10-point 'dog, led 21-10 after three quarters with Florida down to a backup QB after losing Feleipe Franks to a leg injury. Backup Kyle Trask helped the Gators to a go-ahead touchdown with 4:11 to go, making it 22-21. Kentucky misfired on a field goal, and Josh Hammond rubbed salt in the wound with a 78-yard touchdown run to make it 29-21. The TD run with :33 left flipped the under to an over result.

-- Under (63) bettors were feeling good with Texas A&M leading FCS Lamar 55-3 with under two to go. However, the Aggies ripped off a 13-yard touchdown with 1:51 to go, flipping the total to an over result, 62-3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-3) 24, North Carolina 18: The Demon Deacons led 21-0 just a few minutes into the second quarter as little went right for the Tar Heels. North Carolina did get a 4th-and-1 stop inside the 10-yard-line to keep the margin at 21 into halftime however. Defense carried the third quarter as there were no points added until North Carolina hit a 49-yard field goal with 41 seconds remaining. After comeback wins in the first two games the Tar Heels made a great run at it again, getting to 21-10 and then 21-18 with about six minutes remaining after going 80 yards in five plays and hitting the two-point conversion. Wake Forest was able to pick up several first downs to exhaust North Carolina’s timeouts but the Deacons kept the game in play by settling for a field goal with a minute to go. North Carolina moved 33 yards before time ran out with officials later admitting one second should have been given to the Heels for a final play after picking up a late first down and getting out of bounds. It would have been a Hail Mary from there but the Tar Heels weren’t given a shot at a miracle finish as Wake Forest held on.

Washington State (-8) 31, Houston 24: Houston kept the prolific Washington State offense in check in the first half with a 14-7 lead at the break as those playing the mid-70s ‘over’ found trouble early with a scoreless first quarter. Washington State scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in front and held Houston to a field goal early in the fourth quarter after a penalty handed off good field position. That four-point edge allowed Washington State to get past the favorite number with the following touchdown drive, leading 28-17 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Washington State backers got a big break as Houston fumbled on its next offensive play but Washington State only got three points despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard-line. A roughing the passer penalty got Houston’s final drive off to a promising start and with just over two minutes remaining a touchdown run from D’Eriq King put Houston within seven, where the final held for the narrow underdog cover.

Kansas State (+7) 31, Mississippi State 24: Kansas State was in control in the first quarter but a costly personal foul penalty allowed Mississippi State to extend a late drive and get to halftime down 17-14 instead of 17-7. The Bulldogs controlled the third quarter and took the lead with a touchdown, sitting even with the closing spread after an early fourth quarter field goal made it 24-17. The kickoff was returned 100 yards by Malik Knowles for a tying score for the Wildcats to shift the momentum back. The defenses held from there until a marginal punt put Kansas State in favorable field position and the Wildcats hit a pair of big passes on the way to the end zone for a seven-point advantage with about five minutes to go. Mississippi State would reach inside the Kansas State 30 on the next drive but went backwards and on 4th-and-16 wound up just a yard short.

Air Force (+3) 30, Colorado 23: The first meeting between these nearby schools featured some big swings as Colorado jumped out to a 10-0 lead and then trailed 20-10 by halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter and Air Forced extended its lead with a field goal in the fourth while posting a big rushing edge as expected. Colorado would answer about four minutes later but the PAT was blocked as Air Force maintained a seven-point edge. Air Force had a pair of penalties on its next drive and had to punt quickly as Colorado had the ball back with a chance to tie. It took 13 plays but the Buffaloes were able get a touchdown in the final minute and the PAT was good to force overtime. Colorado didn’t keep the momentum long as in overtime Kadin Remsberg went 25 yards for the score on 1st down and Air Force then stopped the Buffaloes for the upset win.

Alabama (-27) 47, South Carolina 23: The box score reveals plenty of concerns for Alabama and South Carolina answered the early punches trailing only 14-10 after the first quarter. Alabama missed a field goal late in the second quarter after being handed good field position as the lead was just 24-10. South Carolina’s chance to truly get back in the game came up empty as in the final seconds before the break the Gamecocks couldn’t get into the end zone after reaching the 1-yard-line, eventually failing going for it on 4th-and-3. Alabama would pull away in the third quarter with a 21-point advantage, one touchdown short of covering the heavy road favorite spread. South Carolina would add a field goal in the fourth but Alabama quickly answered to lead by 24. A promising South Carolina drive ended in a Ryan Hilinski interception and despite limited rushing success the entire game, the Tide eventually worked its way into the end zone, converting on 4th-and-1. That appeared to be the spread-saving score for flocks of Tide backers but Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks had the last laugh, converting a 4th down with 15 seconds to go and hitting the end zone on the next play to narrowly take the underdog cover back.

Army (-14½) 31, Texas San Antonio 13: Army had a 17-7 lead through three quarters but extended the advantage to 24-7 early in the fourth. Following a nice kickoff return, the Roadrunners would add six but not the conversion to climb within the spread down 11. Army intended to run out the clock but they ran out of field and UTSA opted to use its timeouts. Army eventually rushed in from three yards out on 1st down with just over a minute remaining to get past the favorite spread despite being close to the range for taking a knee. UTSA was still a threat to steal the cover back late in the game reaching the Army 21 before an interception.

BYU (+5) 30, USC 27: These teams were knotted at 17-17 at halftime before the scoring went blank in the third quarter. BYU had a fumble and then failed to add points after a long drive trying to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the 10. A 92-play USC touchdown drive followed to put the Trojans in front but BYU got back within the number with a field goal with about eight minutes remaining. BYU held the USC offense to a 3-and-out and the Cougars answered quickly with a three-play touchdown drive to take the lead. An 11-play USC drive followed but it stalled in deep field goal range. Chase McGrath would hit from 52 to tie the game with just under two minutes remaining. In overtime USC picked up a sack and forced BYU to kick a field goal but USC freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis was intercepted to end the game. The overtime points also were enough to push the total ‘over’ for many as BYU ‘under’ backers were burned for a second straight week by the extra-session, though this week’s total did climb to close at 57½ at many outlets for mixed possible results.

Oklahoma State (-12½) 40, Tulsa 21: Tulsa played a great first half to lead 21-20 in a huge home game for the program. That score held in the first 10 minutes of the third quarter before Oklahoma State put two quick touchdowns together, the second coming on a 90-yard pass play as the Cowboys suddenly led by 12. Oklahoma State went for two and came up empty in a critical spread result play heading into the fourth quarter. Tulsa was stopped on downs twice in the fourth quarter including inside the Oklahoma State 10-yard-line. The Cowboys hadn’t been past the favorite spread in the entire game but on 4th-and-1 with just over two minutes remaining Chuba Hubbard rushed for 33 yards to put the Cowboys up 19.

Arkansas (-9½) 55, Colorado State 34: After losing to Colorado State last season, Arkansas was again caught in a tough battle with the Rams, this season at home. Arkansas led 27-24 at halftime and the game was tied 34-34 through three quarters. Big plays followed for Arkansas with a 62-yard pass play for a second touchdown in the fourth quarter that put Arkansas past the favorite spread and a fumble return touchdown led to a lopsided final margin that the Razorbacks didn’t necessarily deserve.

Louisville (-10½) 38, Western Kentucky 21: Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass was a late scratch for this game but Louisville took a commanding 31-7 lead at halftime, helped by a defensive score just before the break. Both teams scored in the third as the 24-point edge held but Western Kentucky found the end zone early in the fourth to sit down 17 and one score away from the underdog cover. The Hilltoppers recovered the onside kick but failed going for it on 4th-and-15 just past midfield. Louisville helped the cause for the Hilltoppers by also going for it on 4th down near midfield instead of punting as Western Kentucky got the ball back in great field position. On the next drive the Hilltoppers reached the Louisville 6-yard-line but couldn’t get in and they also failed near midfield again on a late drive as Louisville held on for the favorite cover in Nashville.

Iowa (-1½) 18, Iowa State 17: This anticipated rivalry game had a nearly three-hour delay early in the game with lightning before the contest lived up to its billing with an exciting finish. Iowa State took a 14-6 lead on just two plays out of halftime after a fumble led to Iowa getting three points just before the break. Iowa added three more in the third quarter and then struck early in the fourth quarter with a seven-play touchdown drive to take the lead. Up one Iowa would miss on a critical two-point conversion try on a spread that was steady at -1½ with brief wavering up to -2 at times. Iowa State responded with a long drive but also settled for just a short field goal to lead by two halfway through the fourth quarter. Iowa again would lean on kicker Keith Duncan who a few minutes later struck from 39 to put the Hawkeyes back in front by one. Iowa State’s final drive was not without drama as Iowa declined an offensive penalty on 3rd-and-13 to force 4th down just outside of field goal range. On the first attempt of that play Iowa was called for clear pass interference but a second unseen flag whistled Iowa State for holding to offset the huge call that would have given the Cyclones a new set of downs. Iowa State was unable to convert the re-do but managed to force Iowa to a punt with the Hawkeyes surprisingly opting to pass on third down and getting out of bounds to keep well over a minute on the clock. On the punt disaster struck with a Cyclones blocker running into the returner with a slight push from an Iowa player on a short kick, ultimately contacting the ball and allowing Iowa to re-gain possession, where they took a knee to seal the narrow win but left the Cyclones with the cover.

Florida (-8½) 29, Kentucky 21: Kentucky snapped a long losing streak in this series last season but they didn’t seem ready to give the series right back to the favored Gators. Sawyer Smith led the Wildcats in his first start to a 14-7 halftime lead with the Gators having two turnovers and a missed field goal in the first half. Florida added a field goal in the third quarter after a long Kentucky drive ended in an interception but the Wildcats put the margin back to two scores quickly with a touchdown. Both teams were stopped on downs on the following possessions and with Kyle Trask replacing an injured Feleipe Franks the Gators had a quick touchdown drive in six plays to climb within five, missing on the two-point conversion. Later in the fourth Smith was intercepted near midfield but an unsportsmanlike penalty after the play pushed Florida into lesser field position. Florida was aided by two 15-yard penalties and managed to score in just four plays, taking a 22-21 lead after again failing going for the two-point conversion. The Wildcats were in position to answer but were seemingly more concerned with burning clock than getting the lead back and they wound up burned as Chance Poore narrowly missed a 35-yard kick for the lead. Looking for a first down to end the game Josh Hammond broke free and raced 76 yards for a touchdown in the final seconds and the extra-point put Florida up by eight to match the common spread on the game ahead of the weekend, though those that jumped on the Gators on Saturday mostly fell just short.

Washington (-22) 52, Hawai’i 20: Hopes for three Pac-12 wins for the Warriors went out the window quickly as Washington raced out to a 38-0 lead before Hawai’i managed a touchdown right before halftime. The Warriors didn’t fold in the second half however netting two touchdowns to climb within 18 and in position to cover the hefty underdog number. Washington would get back in front of the number early in the fourth and then added another score after an interception to seal the win and cover in a bounce back from last week’s loss to Cal.

San Diego State (-17) 31, New Mexico State 10: The Aggies made a late play to cover with 10 points in a five-minute span late in the third quarter after falling behind 24-0. San Diego State scored to get back past the number early in the fourth quarter and on the responding drive New Mexico State couldn’t convert after reaching the Aztecs 17-yard-line. New Mexico State also reached San Diego State territory late in the fourth but on 1st down a fumble handed the ball back to San Diego State.

Clemson (-27½) 41, Syracuse 6: Clemson led just 17-6 at halftime and was short of the favorite spread with a 27-6 edge through three quarters. Trevor Lawrence turned in a fourth-quarter touchdown drive as the Tigers led by 28 to slip by the spread and a late Syracuse threat was turned away in Clemson territory. For good measure Chez Mellusi broke a 57-yard rush in the final minute to pad the final score for the top ranked Tigers.

Virginia (-7) 31, Florida State 24: The Cavaliers were a -7½-point favorite much of the week but that didn’t seem relevant as Florida State led most of this game, up by seven through three quarter and well into the fourth quarter after answering an early fourth quarter tying score from Virginia. The Cavaliers looked set to tie the game with about six minutes to go with an efficient Bryce Perkins drive finding the end zone but a missed PAT left the Seminoles in front by one. The Virginia defense delivered the 3-and-out however and it took just five plays with the help of a penalty for Virginia to find the end zone again. Down five Perkins converted the two-point try and the Cavaliers led by seven to hit the number for some. James Blackman had a chance to deliver the tying score with a personal foul converting a late 4th down incompletion while pass interference added more yards for the Seminoles who received four 15-yard penalties on the drive. Florida State reached the Virginia 4-yard-line scrambling without timeouts and ran a final play that left Cam Akers just short of the end zone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football Week 4: Early bettors pound Georgia odds for showdown vs. Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

A big clash of top-10 programs highlights Week 4 on the college football schedule. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBetUSA in New Jersey.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-12)

Georgia reached the College Football Playoff title game two years ago and is trying to burnish its credentials for this year’s CFP. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have played three lightweights so far, including in Week 3, when they thumped Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites.

Notre Dame landed a spot in last season’s CFP semifinals, where it got completely outclassed by Clemson in a 30-3 loss. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) punished hapless New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves Saturday.

Bulldogs backers didn’t wait long to get out of the gate, moving the line 2 points to -14 by Monday night.

“Huge early-season game with major playoff implications,” Chaprales said. “A loss effectively kills Notre Dame’s chances, while Georgia would face a significant uphill climb. We took some Georgia action at the opener of 12, moved quickly to 12.5 and then straight through 13 to 13.5. Despite both teams being ranked in the top 10, this number – along with the direction it’s moved – underscores just how far apart the market thinks they are.”


No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (-3)

Michigan had a Week 3 bye and probably needed it after surviving a major home upset bid in Week 2. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) went off as 21.5-point favorites against Army and never led until overtime, coming away with a 24-21 victory.

Wisconsin also comes into this noon ET Saturday clash well-rested off a Week 3 bye. The Badgers (2-0 SU and ATS) won their first two games by a combined 110-0, including a 61-0 Week 2 victory over Central Michigan laying 34 points at home.

“On one side, you have a public team in Michigan that hasn’t looked great – 0-2 ATS, nearly lost outright at home to Army – and on the other, a Wisconsin squad that’s tossed a pair of perfect games against minnows so far,” Chaprales said. “Recreational bettors will nonetheless likely be interested in the Wolverines at plus money.”

Early bettors apparently like the host Badgers, though, with the line moving to -3.5, back to -3, then returning to -3.5.


No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)

Auburn got a resume-building win over Oregon in Week 1, then moved to 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over a couple of lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers crunched Kent State 55-16, cashing as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) has also been good to bettors so far, cashing in all three of its outings, including a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

The line ticked up a half-point to A&M -4 for this Southeastern Conference showdown, set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

“Key conference opener that could determine the direction each of these programs is headed,” Chaprales said. “Auburn and true freshman quarterback Bo Nix passed their first test of season by sliding past Oregon, while A&M didn’t put up much resistance against Clemson a few weeks ago, needing a last-second touchdown to get the backdoor cover. Slight adjustment off the opener of 3.5, but minimal activity since.”


No. 11 Utah Utes at No. 24 Southern California Trojans (+3.5)

Southern Cal lost starting quarterback JT Daniels (ACL) in Week 1, and while true freshman Kedon Slovis looked superb in Week 2 against Stanford, he looked his age in Week 3. Slovis threw three interceptions at Brigham Young, and the Trojans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell just short 30-27 laying 5 points.

Utah rolled over that same BYU team in Week 1, on the road no less, with a 30-12 victory as a 5-point chalk. The Utes (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) blanked Idaho State 31-0 giving 36.5 points at home Saturday.

This line bounced between Utah -3.5 and -4, sitting at the latter Monday night, for a Pac-12 After Dark clash at 9 p.m. ET Friday.

“This game was shaping up as Utah’s coming-out party, but USC’s loss to BYU put a damper on that,” Chaprales said. “The Pac-12 South figures to be Utah’s to lose this season, but needless to say, a slip-up in a high-profile prime-time spot would be very detrimental.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

HOUSTON at TULANE ...Willie Fritz has covered 2 of last 3 in series, all as dog, won outright in 2017. Cougs just 5-12 as chalk away from home since late 2015. If Wave a dog note Fritz 4-0 in role at home since 2017.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Monty Andrews



TROUBLE FOR SPARTANS?

The Michigan State Spartans will have to do without one of their standout offensive linemen until November. Kevin Jarvis suffered a knee injury in last week's stunning loss to Arizona State and is expected to be out for six or seven weeks, according to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio.

Jarvis and the rest of the Spartans' offensive line had their hands full in last week's loss, with Michigan State producing just 3.2 yards per carry while having five passes broken up and allowing a sack. Tyler Higby will take over for Jarvis at left tackle going into this weekend's encounter with host Northwestern.

And while the Wildcats were torched 30-14 by UNLV last time out, they ranked 26th in run defense a season ago and held the Spartans to just 19 points in last year's meeting at Spartan Stadium. We like MSU to come in below its team total of 24.5.


NOT SO FAST!

Don't get too excited, Dillon Gabriel fans. Central Florida head coach Josh Huepel isn't ready to name the sensational freshman as the starting quarterback for Saturday's visit to Pittsburgh. This despite Gabriel going off in last week's statement victory over visiting Stanford, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns.

Gabriel has the hot hand ahead of season-opening No. 1 Brandon Wimbush and the recently-returned-from-injury Darriel Mack, both of whom were expected to see action against the Cardinal. In the end, Wimbush saw just one snap while Mack didn't play.

It would be foolhardy for UCF to pivot away from Gabriel, whose advanced level of play should allow the Knights to dominate the time of possession. That, combined with Pitt's ugly offensive numbers (14.7 PPG, 2.8 YPC), make UCF a great pick ATS.


DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Collin Hill has suffered yet another devastating knee injury. The Colorado State quarterback suffered a torn left ACL in last week's loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks and will miss the remainder of the season.

That could be it for Hill's football career, as this is the third time he has torn the ACL in his left knee. Hill was enjoying a terrific season for the Rams, having completed better than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 840 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Patrick O'Brien will take over the starting role beginning with Saturday's game against visiting Toledo.

This line has shifted three points in the Rockets’ favor since opening at -6.5, and that might be too much movement. O'Brien was impressive in relief last time out, while CSU went 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of 7-plus points in 2018. We like the home side here.


A GREAT UNKNOWN

Saturday's tall task might have become a whole lot tougher for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare to open their SEC schedule against No. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is considered questionable for the game after suffering an upper-body injury early in last week's victory over Kent State. Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn considers Brown "day-to-day". The projected first-round pick in next year's NFL draft has seven tackles (one for loss) in three games, and has 22.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in his three-plus years at Auburn.

Brown's absence would be a devastating one for the Tigers' defense – and a major boost to a Texas A&M rush attack averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry. Look to either the Aggies ATS or the Over on their team total if Brown is ruled out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Houston at Tulane
September 17, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Thursday night college football returns with an American Athletic Conference West division battle between Houston and Tulane. Houston has won 13 of the last 15 meetings but Tulane has taken two of the past five including the last home meeting two seasons ago. Take a look at this week’s ESPN contest to kick off the college football weekend.

Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave

Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Tulane -4½, Over/Under 55½
Last Meeting: 2018, at Houston (-7½) 48, Tulane 17

Despite contrasting levels of success in over the past decade, right now Houston is just 1-2 while Tulane heads into this contest at 2-1 including a pair of home wins. This will be the conference opener for both teams and the start of the AAC West race where both squads will be chasing the heavy favorite Memphis.

Houston has faced a pair of top 25 squads losing 49-31 in the season opener at Oklahoma while last Friday, the Cougars narrowly earned a cover with a 31-24 defeat against Washington State across town at NRG Stadium. The only win for Houston came against FCS Prairie View with a 37-17 result.

Tulane dominated a prime time home opener against Florida International in late August and played competitively in a 24-6 loss at Auburn in Week 2 before blowing out FCS Montana State last week 58-6 at home with a 540-182 edge in yardage.

Houston quarterback D’Eriq King accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and he already has nine in three games to lead the Cougars. Houston is in a transition season with Dana Holgorsen taking over the program after modest success over eight seasons at West Virginia. Holgorsen was an assistant at Houston for two years in 2008 and 2009 and surprised many by jumping down to the smaller conference program after Major Applewhite was let go after two seasons. Houston gave Holgorsen a five-year deal worth $20 million as he is by a wide margin the highest paid Group of 5 head coach in the nation.

Applewhite and Tony Levine have both been let go by Houston following 8-5 seasons in the last decade as the bar is high for the Cougars who hope Holgorsen can be a long term winner that stays put after losing Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and Tom Herman to higher profile major conference positions.

Houston draws a difficult schedule in AAC play as no game can be taken for granted and ultimately the Cougars will be playing four of the first five games away from its home stadium as the Cougars are on the road again next week with a non-conference game at North Texas. Houston has to play UCF and Cincinnati from the AAC East as continuing a run of six straight bowl bids can’t be assumed and this week’s game could wind up as a critical swing game in that pursuit for a pair of teams that are expected to finish above the bowl cut-line but not by a wide margin.

Tulane has improved in win count in three straight seasons under Willie Fritz, technically finishing in a tie for 1st in the AAC West last season with Houston and Memphis at 5-3, with Memphis getting to play in the AAC Championship. Improving in win count again this season won’t be easy with UCF and Temple drawn from the East plus a challenging non-conference game at Army still ahead following a bye next weekend. The AAC West has had three different championship game representatives over the four seasons of its existence with Houston winning the inaugural AAC title game in 2015.

Fritz led the Wave to a bowl win last season for the first time for the program since 2002 and Tulane is looking to put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1997 and 1998 when Tommy Bowden led the Wave to a 12-0 season before heading to Clemson. Tulane hasn’t had consecutive bowl seasons since 1979 and 1980 as Fritz has been a great hire and now owns a 172-91 career record counting his lower level success at Central Missouri and Sam Houston State before he went 17-7 at Georgia Southern over two years.

Tulane has rushed for 768 yards in three games posting 5.9 yards per rush with Justin McMillan the leading rusher from the quarterback position. McMillan is a senior that played sparingly until he unseated Jonathan Banks midway through last season. McMillan posted similar numbers to Banks, but benefitted from a lighter late season schedule and keyed several narrow wins down the stretch with Tulane beating Tulsa, South Florida, East Carolina and Navy to win four of the final five before also winning the Cure Bowl against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Houston started last season 7-1 and the home win over Tulane in mid-November was the only win for the Cougars the rest of the way. The Cougars played without King in the final two games after he was injured against the Green Wave and behind backup Clayton Tune, the Cougars were blown out against Memphis in the season finale and in the bowl game vs. Army by a combined score of 122-45, prompting Applewhite’s release.

In September it is always worth checking the weather in the south and southeast and the early Thursday forecast does call for some wind upwards of 15 MPH with warm humid temperatures and a 20 percent chance of a shower or stray thunderstorm.

Last season:
The one late season loss for Tulane last year came in this matchup, also on a Thursday night. Houston dominated with a 31-9 edge by halftime and a 41-9 lead through three quarters in a contest where Tulane had four turnovers. The contest was memorable more for a sideline confrontation between then Houston head coach Major Applewhite and star defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who wasn’t even suited up to play in the game. D’Eriq King was injured in the game as Houston leaned on running back Patrick Carr and took advantage of Tulane mistakes including two interceptions from Justin McMillan.

Historical Trends:
Houston is on a 13-2 S/U and 12-3 ATS run in this series since 2003, but Tulane won the last home meeting two years ago, 20-17 as a nine-point underdog. Since 2013, Houston is on a 10-11 S/U and 17-4 ATS run as an underdog, which they haven’t been vs. Tulane since 2003. Since 2016 under Willie Fritz, Tulane is 12-8 S/U and 12-7-1 ATS in home games including going 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 4 - Upset Alerts
September 18, 2019
By Matt Blunt

No complaints about bad numbers in terms of last week's plays, as they were more about backing bad teams that simply got overwhelmed by superior talent. Indiana and New Mexico just couldn't keep Ohio State and Notre Dame off the scoreboard to fall well short of even sniffing a cover as big underdogs.

The news wasn't all bad though as Air Force managed to take full advantage of the brutal situational spot Colorado found themselves in. The Falcons nearly coughed up the game (and cover) after having lead for the bulk of that contest, but they managed to hold on long enough to get the outright win in OT, to have the selections avoid it's second consecutive 0-3 ATS week.

A 1-2 ATS record last week with the lone cover winning outright as well is the step in the right direction, and while I may have wasted most of my luck with the huge 20+ underdogs last year, I'm confident that things will turn around here soon for all the underdogs in this weekly piece.

So while it's highly understandable that backing these plays this week may be tough to do given recent results, that narrative actually ties in quite well with the specific teams involved in this week's plays. We've got a few teams that the general betting market wants little to do with after what they've seen from them in the first few weeks of the season. There has generally been nothing but criticism, ridicule and laughter for how some of these teams have performed so far this year, and in terms of the perception vs reality notion, that actually does present some inherent value in their point spreads. Now it's just up to these teams (and myself with the selections) to get the job done.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS

Michigan (+3.5) vs Wisconsin

Back in the summer when I penned this piece for the site, I did so always having this game in mind and circled on the calendar for a spot to back the Wolverines. Even with Michigan narrowly beating Army last time out, and Jim Harbaugh's team on a 0-6 ATS run dating back to the end of last year, I think this is just the spot, opponent, and time for Michigan to get their 2019 season rolling on the right foot.

The betting market has been quick to get on Harbaugh and the Wolverines this season, talking about how it's the same old, outdated Harbaugh offense that's holding the Wolverines from reaching their full potential yet again this year, and it seems inevitable to most that Michigan will find new and interesting ways to blow it in the biggest games of the year like they have in the past. Going up against a Wisconsin team that's yet to allow a single point this season is a situation that looks like a great spot to further those beliefs as Michigan is a team that very little want anything to do with right now, other then to fade them. Given how well the Badgers have looked so far, it's no surprise that the bulk of the action (70%+) has already come Wisconsin's way.

But being 'tested' early on in a season is something I prefer to look at as a positive for a team like Michigan, because it gets those competitive juices flowing, allows them to know how they'll react when facing adversity, and the more they come out on the positive end of those contests – like they did vs Army – the confidence only grows.

Conversely, Wisconsin has gone up against two cupcakes so far and have yet to had their feet to the fire. There is plenty of confidence having outscored opponents 110-0 through two games, but the Badgers have yet to see any sort of adversity and therefore, we've yet to see how they react when they do so. Sure, they could pass that first test with flying colors, but I'm not sure that will be the case against a team that's as highly ranked or as talented as the Wolverines are. You'd always prefer some early season struggles to come up against a much lesser team where the likelihood of overcoming it is much greater – say like a team like Army, or Illinois, Indiana etc – and I'm not sure this Wisconsin team has what it takes to take the heat when it comes down to it. Yes, Wisconsin could have 'revenge' on their mind after last year's 38-13 loss to Harbaugh's squad, but that score was telling the other way as well in that Harbaugh and Michigan understand how to move the ball against a tough defense like Wisconsin's and will be able to do so again.

The “Redemption Tour” for Michigan might have ended in disappointment for the Wolverines last year with their performance against the Buckeyes at the end of the campaign, but it will be that take no prisoners attitude that serves Michigan well in this game with many doubters lurking out there. With the market's perception already highly negative on Harbaugh yet again, he and his team knows that there aren't many greater feelings then proving the majority wrong, and I expect them to do exactly that in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Tennessee (+14) vs Florida

Speaking of teams that continually get ridiculed and laughed at in the betting market, we've got the Tennessee Volunteers catching double-digits in the Swamp this weekend. It's definitely hard to defend what we've seen from the Volunteers so far in 2019 having dropped game easily winnable games to Georgia State and BYU, as this is a program that not only can't shake the choke job persona in the market, but sees that notion grow seemingly every week.

Yet, sometimes all it takes for a program in the midst of getting crapped on is to go out and beat up on a little brother so to speak. Tennessee did that last week with a 45-0 win (ATS cover as well) vs Chattanooga, and any internal doubts/issues with confidence inside that locker room had to get a boost. There is no redoing those losses to Georgia State and BYU, especially how they happened, but with those still so fresh in the minds of many bettors, the general market wants absolutely nothing to do with the Volunteers. But any athlete will tell you, being counted out and endlessly ridiculed and doubted, only makes the redemption that much sweeter when it comes around.

On the other side of the coin, we've got a Gators team who is turning to QB Kyle Trask this week after Feleipe Franks went down for the year. Bettors saw Trask step in and lead the Gators to a comeback against Kentucky last week, so there is plenty of positive reinforcement there to further get units down against Tennessee in this game. Yet, it's still Trask's first career collegiate start under center, and that has to bring some concerns in its own right, never mind the fact that he's expected to lead his team to a two-TD victory.

Perception and reality just don't appear to be close to meeting in my eyes for this game, and that's probably why this point spread is a little higher then it should be in my view. Yes, we've seen Trask perform well in limited action this year, but what did he have to lose in that scenario? Had he not gone out and led the Gators to a comeback last week it would have essentially been a free pass for him given the situation he stepped into, and leading the comeback like he did only inflated the general perception about his talent.

But the fact that he had nothing to lose in terms of perception from stepping into that scenario allowed him to play free and easy on those final drives, and relaxed athletes with nothing to lose tend to always perform at their best. This week, the pressure amps up quite a bit as there is much more on his shoulders in terms of potentially suffering a loss here, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Gators react.

Besides, wouldn't it be a complete Tennessee thing to do to lose their first two games of the year in the fashion that they did, and then turn around and go into the Swamp and get an outright upset victory? I'm not sure that will end up being the case, but the Volunteers will put their best foot forward in trying to do so, and keep this game much closer then a number like this suggests.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Miami OH (+39) at Ohio State

As has been the case with my handicapping in other sports this year, there are plenty of times where plays of mine end up being losses as they come a game/week too early. Fading Ohio State on the road last week in their Big 10 opener proved to be a wrong cap by far, but I'm hoping that I was just a week too early on fading this Buckeyes team that's still getting talked up too much in my opinion this year.

This also isn't the greatest spot for the Buckeyes to cover a huge number like this, facing a weak non-conference foe at home, sandwiched between two Big 10 road tilts. Indiana proved to be no match for the Buckeyes, but a trip to Nebraska next week should be much tougher. This week's game against the Redhawks has all the makings of a “get in, get out” type game for Ohio State, as they'll establish a comfortable lead early and then sit on the ball after that. There is no need to send a message to say, the rest of the Big 10, like they did last week against Indiana, so they aren't likely to keep their foot on the gas late like they did last week, and to win, stay healthy, and give some 2nd and 3rd stringers meaningful reps has to be the goal.

Finally, Ohio State comes into this game with a 2-0 ATS record, and during the regular season, the Buckeyes have only covered the number three straight times on one occasion dating back to October 2016. Put it all together and I believe we see this Miami (Ohio) team that's already 1-0 ATS this year as a 20+ underdog get the ATS cash again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOS ANGELES (23 - 12) at CONNECTICUT (23 - 11) - 9/19/2019, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-3 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-4 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (22 - 12) at WASHINGTON (25 - 8) - 9/19/2019, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 5-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Thursday, September 19

Trend Report

Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games
Connecticut is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Connecticut is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games at home
Connecticut is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Connecticut is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Connecticut's last 10 games when playing Los Angeles
Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games on the road
Los Angeles is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Connecticut
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing Connecticut
Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing on the road against Connecticut

Washington Mystics
Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games at home
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Las Vegas
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Las Vegas is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Las Vegas's last 13 games
Las Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Las Vegas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 7 games on the road
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 9 games when playing Washington
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Las Vegas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, September 19


https://i.imgur.com/XEy3pC5.png (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/commercial-photography/)
(http://www.freeimagehosting.net/commercial-photography/)
(http://www.freeimagehosting.net/commercial-photography/)
(http://www.freeimagehosting.net/commercial-photography/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, September 19


Philadelphia @ Atlanta

Game 951-952
September 19, 2019 @ 12:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Nola) 17.401
Atlanta
(Soroka) 15.915
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-155
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+135); Under

Seattle @ Pittsburgh

Game 965-966
September 19, 2019 @ 12:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Kikuchi) 15.035
Pittsburgh
(Musgrove) 11.627
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
N/A

San Francisco @ Boston

Game 967-968
September 19, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Bmgrner) 15.700
Boston
(Rodriguez) 14.194
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
bu 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-175
9
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+155); Under

San Diego @ Milwaukee

Game 953-954
September 19, 2019 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Lucchesi) 15.621
Milwaukee
(Lyles) 14.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-160
8
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+140); Over

LA Angels @ NY Yankees

Game 957-958
September 19, 2019 @ 6:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Heaney) 13.872
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 17.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-300
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-300); Over

Toronto @ Baltimore

Game 959-960
September 19, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Font) 16.952
Baltimore
(Ynoa) 14.094
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-130
10
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-130); Under

Detroit @ Cleveland

Game 961-962
September 19, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Norris) 13.600
Cleveland
(Clevnger) 17.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-350
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-350); Under

St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

Game 955-956
September 19, 2019 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 16.410
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 17.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-110
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-110); Under

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Game 963-964
September 19, 2019 @ 7:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Mntgmry) 15.780
Minnesota
(Gibson) 14.503
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-270
10
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+215); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, September 19


National League
Phillies (78-72) @ Braves (93-60)
Nola is 0-2, 4.15 in his last five starts; he is 3-1, 4.06 in five starts vs Atlanta this year. Team in his starts: lost last five
5-inning record: 17-7-8 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-32 Over/under: 19-13

Soroka is 2-1, 3.71 in his last three starts; he is 0-0, 4.82 in two starts vs Philly this year. Team in his starts: 18-9
5-inning record: 17-7-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-27 Over/under: under 3-1-1 last five

Phillies won their last four road games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Atlanta won 13 of last 19 games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-2-1 last seven games.

Padres (69-83) @ Brewers (82-70)
Lucchesi is 3-1, 4.05 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 13-15
5-inning record: 15-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-28 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six

Lyles is 4-0, 1.91 in his last five starts; he is 3-4, 5.02 in 12 games (9 starts) vs SD. Team in his starts: 8-1
5-inning record: 7-0-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-9 Over/under: 3-6

San Diego lost eight of its last nine road games; under is 3-0 in their last three games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-6-2 last 14 road games.

Milwaukee won 11 of last 13 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-3-1 last eight home games.

Cardinals (85-67) @ Cubs (82-70)
Flaherty is 2-1, 1.23 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 4.22 in four starts vs Chicago this year. Team in his starts: 15-15
5-inning record: 12-9-9 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-30 Over/under: under 12-1 last 13

Hendricks is 3-0, 2.04 in his last three starts; he is 8-2, 2.74 in 17 starts vs St Louis. Team in his starts: 17-11
5-inning record: 14-11-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-28 Over/under: 9-18-1

St Louis lost four of last five games; they’re 10-14 in road series openers- over is 4-3-1 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 8-2-1 last 11 games.

Cubs won five of their last seven games; they’re 14-3 in last 17 home series openers- over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 9-4-1 last 14 games.

American League
Angels (69-83) @ New York (99-54)
Heaney is 1-2, 8.79 in his last three starts; he is 1-0, 1.47 in three starts vs NYY. Team in his starts: 10-6
5-inning record: 10-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-16 Over/under: 8-8

Tanaka is 0-1, 6.00 in his last three starts; he is 3-1, 2.38 in seven starts vs LAA. Team in his starts: 19-11
5-inning record: 18-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-30 Over/under: under 5-2 last seven

Angels lost seven of last nine games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six games.

New York won seven of last 11 games; under is 7-1 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-2 last eight games.

Blue Jays (61-91) @ Orioles (49-103)
Kay is 0-0, 6.30 in two starts. Team in his starts: 1-1
5-inning record: 0-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-2 Over/under: 1-1

Ynoa is 0-2, 6.43 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 1-10
5-inning record: 1-8-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-11 Over/under: over 6-2 last eight

Toronto won five of last eight games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-1-1 last nine games.

Orioles split their last eight games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-1-1 last eight games.

Tigers (45-106) @ Indians (89-63)
Norris is 0-2, 2.50 in his last six starts (3 IP each start); he is 0-2, 6.89 in three starts vs Cleveland this year. Team in his starts: 8-19
5-inning record: 11-14-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-27 Over/under: 12-13-2

Clevinger is 4-1, 1.58 in his last six starts; he is 2-0, 0.64 in two starts vs Detroit this year. Team in his starts: 12-6
5-inning record: 13-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-18 Over/under: 9-8-1

Tigers lost six of last seven games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1 last six games.

Indians won seven of last nine games; over is 6-4 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-2 last six home games.

Royals (56-97) @ Twins (93-59)
Montgomery is 0-4, 5.19 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 3-8
5-inning record: 4-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-11 Over/under: 5-6

Smeltzer is 1-2, 3.56 in six games; they may use an opener. Team in his starts: 3-2
5-inning record: 1-2-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-5 Over/under: 0-5

Royals lost eight of last 11 games; they’re 9-16 in road series openers- over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.

Minnesota won four of last six games; they’re 16-9 in home series openers- under is 7-2 in their last nine home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-4 last 14 games.

Interleague
Mariners (63-88) @ Pirates (65-86)
Kikuchi is 1-1, 6.57 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 13-17
5-inning record: 13-14-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 12-30 Over/under: 20-10

Musgrove is 2-0, 2.65 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 14-15
5-inning record: 14-11-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-29 Over/under: 16-11-2

Mariners won six of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-1 last four games.

Pirates lost their last five games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Giants (74-78) @ Red Sox (79-72)
Bumgarner is 1-0, 3.77 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 19-13
5-inning record: 14-12-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-32 Over/under: over 4-1 last five

Rodriguez is 4-1, 1.15 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 23-8
5-inning record: 20-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-31 Over/under: under 7-2 last nine

Giants are 8-6 in their last 14 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1 last six games.

Red Sox won three of their last five games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight home games.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5
Ariz 21-71……18-68……39
Atl 21-69…..25-71……46
Cubs 18-67……25-70…..43
Reds 24-67……27-73…..51
Colo 17-72……26-66……43
LA 20-67……25-73……45
Mia 13-66……20-70…..33
Milw 21-67…..25-71…..46
Mets 26-64……21-66…..47
Philly 17-66…..21-70……38
Pitt 25-71…..18-67……43
StL 17-68…..20-70……37
SD 19-68……21-68…..40
SF 10-71……15-66……25
Wash 22-69…..21-67……43

Orioles 20-71…….23-69..….43
Boston 20-69…….24-69……44
W Sox 16-71…….18-68…….34
Clev 20-69…..21-71……..41
Det 21-71……18-65……..39
Astros 26-70…..17-69……..43
KC 19-68…..24-72……..43
Angels 26-72……15-67…….41
Twins 28-71……18-68……46
NYY 21-66……27-75……48
A’s 17-66…..19-71…….36
Sea 19-71…..17-69…….36
TB 24-70…..22-70……46
Texas 17-73…..24-67…….41
Toronto 18-71…..19-71…….37

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 81-59 NL, favorites -$1,555 under 66-64-5
AL @ NL– 66-65 NL, favorites -$1,965 over 70-58-7
Total: 147-124 NL, favorites -$3,520 Over 134-124-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, September 19

Trend Report

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games when playing Seattle
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Mariners
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Boston Red Sox
Boston is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games
Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games at home
Boston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Boston
San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Diego
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing San Diego
Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Diego
San Diego Padres
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Diego's last 15 games
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
San Diego is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Yankees's last 23 games
NY Yankees is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
NY Yankees is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games at home
NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
NY Yankees is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Angels
NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
NY Yankees is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Los Angeles Angels
LA Angels is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
LA Angels is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Angels's last 9 games
LA Angels is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
LA Angels is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
LA Angels is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
LA Angels is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Yankees
LA Angels is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
LA Angels is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Chi Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
Chi Cubs is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Chi Cubs is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games at home
Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chi Cubs's last 15 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of St. Louis's last 19 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Minnesota's last 16 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Kansas City's last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn
Free Play: Kansas City/Minnesota Over 10 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: SAN FRANCISCO/BOSTON OVER the total of 9 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Thursday's Free Selection: Toronto Blue Jays/Baltimore Orioles under 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Milwaukee - 155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Thursday's Free Selection: New York Yankees

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Free Pick: Toronto/Baltimore Game OVER 10 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday : Take KANSAS CITY/MINNESOTA UNDER the total of 10½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Thursday

Philadlephia Nola +124

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Thursday's Free Pick: Washington Mystics - 8 (WNBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports Free Play: St Louis Flaherty +103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

FREE play THURS Brewers w/ Lyles-155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: TORONTO/BALTIMORE OVER the total of 10 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Thursday: Kansas City Royals + 220

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Thursday: Hstn/Tulane OVER 56

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)



Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 2

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) / 0.50 Pick 5 (Races 2-6)



Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 77 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 1:28P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $28,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. VERMEER is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * VERMEER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FLOYD MONEYMAKER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure a t the distance/surface.



1

VERMEER

3/1


3/2




3

FLOYD MONEYMAKER

5/2


5/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

VERMEER

1


3/1

Front-runner

82


66


85.4


58.0


55.0




3

FLOYD MONEYMAKER

3


5/2

Trailer

68


63


38.0


60.5


57.0




6

MY BOY ANDY

6


20/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


17.1


36.0


30.5























Unknown Running Style: COAST OF ROAN (6/1) [Jockey: Roman Evin A - Trainer: O'Neill Doug F], CREDANCE (4/1) [Jockey: Espinoza Assael - Trainer: Brinkerhoff Val], AGENT ZERO (4/1) [Jockey: Pena Brayan - Trainer: Mendez Luis], TRUEST REWARD (6/1) [Jock

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes



Finger Lakes - Race 8

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)



Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 4:19P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2018 - 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. PRIMETIME GAL is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * EXCLUSIVE SYMPHONY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ANDROMEDA'S RISK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



6

EXCLUSIVE SYMPHONY

3/1


3/1




9

ANDROMEDA'S RISK

5/2


9/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

TIME FOR A PARTY

3


6/1

Front-runner

64


54


75.0


47.4


40.4




6

EXCLUSIVE SYMPHONY

6


3/1

Front-runner

78


75


71.0


57.4


55.4




5

PRIMETIME GAL

5


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

71


53


43.4


45.2


38.7




9

ANDROMEDA'S RISK

9


5/2

Trailer

75


61


44.6


59.2


54.7




2

BESS' GIRL

2


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


47.0


16.4


0.9




4

ED S QUEEN

4


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

49


47


40.8


39.8


28.3




1

LITTLE NELL

1


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

59


53


40.8


38.6


26.1




8

RIGHT OF APPROVAL

8


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

64


55


40.6


30.8


16.3




7

LOYAL HEART

7


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

85


78


5.7


14.2


1.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 WHO'S MY BOSS 5/2




# 1 MORNING MUSE 9/2




# 10 BE BACK 5/1




My choice for this event is WHO'S MY BOSS. In this field, this horse is highly ranked earnings per start in dirt sprint races. Expect a much better outing with the drop. Looks decent for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races lately. MORNING MUSE - Is hard not to look at based on speed figures which have been very good - 78 avg - of late. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. BE BACK - The Equibase Speed Figure of 71 from his most recent contest looks very strong in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 EQUAL JUSTICE (ML=5/2)


EQUAL JUSTICE - This speed freak should benefit from this shorter trip. The 82 most recent race speed rating looks good on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 OPTIMAL (ML=9/5), #1 CIGAR CITY (ML=4/1), #3 MOON FLASH (ML=9/2),

OPTIMAL - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple months in a short distance race to be worth the risk at low odds in a sprint. This favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on him today. CIGAR CITY - In any event of 5 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been on the board in sprint races of late. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on October 6th. MOON FLASH - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all. Finished third in his most recent performance with a run-of-the-mill fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - EQUAL JUSTICE - Performance last out was strong, even though it was second place effort. Was well clear of the 3rd place finisher. My calculations and statistics say only a slight improvement is needed today to move up one and into the winner's circle.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #6 EQUAL JUSTICE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [3,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:16pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 TAYLORSINITIATION (ML=7/2)
#6 JUST FOR CHUCKLES (ML=3/1)


TAYLORSINITIATION - This speedball is running a shorter distance today. Should help his likelihood of winning. As the only speedball in the race, I expect this colt to be long gone. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the class ability to make his presence felt. JUST FOR CHUCKLES - I like the fact that this gelding's last speed rating, 66, is tops in this field. Horse's last race was at Gulfstream Park in a race with an Equibase class figure of 73. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure in today's event puts him in a solid position in this field. This gelding is tops in earnings per race. Take a long look at this thoroughbred before the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SHUDDAWUDDACUDDA (ML=1/1), #4 REDBULLETWARRIOR (ML=6/1),

SHUDDAWUDDACUDDA - This gelding hasn't had any recent good results in short distance events. Tough to play him in this event. REDBULLETWARRIOR - The Brain always cautions me to keep my distance from ponies in sprint races that haven't hit the board in short distance races of late. Would have to advance off that sixth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. Finished sixth in his most recent race with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 TAYLORSINITIATION on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 OCALA CAT 9/2




# 7 HALO'S FOR DUDE 3/1




# 3 ELITHIUM 12/1




OCALA CAT looks strong to best this field. Russell is trying to prove victorious with this horse by bringing her back so quickly. The speed rating of 58 from her latest race looks quite good in here. With one of the strongest jockeys in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. HALO'S FOR DUDE - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses in this race lately. This horse has to be in sound condition coming back to race so quickly. ELITHIUM - Have to love when any pony makes a quick major improvement.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs



09/19/19, CD, Race 8, 8.23 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.46.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $95,000.
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Reach the Moon
4-1
Bridgmohan S
Cox Brad H.
JT


097.8479
4
Rock On Kitten(b+)
5-1
Beschizza A
Walsh Brendan P.
FL


096.7950
11
Phantom Currency
15-1
Graham J
Lynch Brian A.




096.6541
6
Blankenbaker
10-1
Chuan M
Romans Dale L.




096.5889
2
Third Edition(b+)
9/2
Leparoux J R
Correas. IV Ignacio
WC


096.5799
5
Big Time Player
12-1
Hill C
Catalano Wayne M.




096.2982
1
Red Sorrell
3-1
Gaffalione T
Maker Michael J.
E


095.8434
3
Candizar
12-1
Morales E
Hawley Wesley E.
S


095.5548
10
North Dakota
6-1
Lanerie C J
McGaughey III Claude R




095.1954
9
Illidan
15-1
Baze T
Wilkes Ian R.




093.8369
8
Herbies Toys
15-1
Burke J
Corrigan Jimmy




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to CD.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
18.00
3.25
50.00
2
4
[Turf MdnMClm] First Start


4
14.20
1.47
6.67
1
15
[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


11
24.20
2.21
10.00
1
10
[Turf MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race


6
24.20
2.21
10.00
1
10
[Turf MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race


2
14.20
1.47
6.67
1
15
[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


5
18.00
3.25
50.00
2
4
[Turf MdnMClm] First Start


1
8.00
1.67
16.67
1
6
[Turf MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 9


3
8.00
1.67
16.67
1
6
[Turf MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 9


10
14.20
1.47
6.67
1
15
[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


9
18.00
3.25
50.00
2
4
[Turf MdnMClm] First Start


8
8.00
1.67
16.67
1
6
[Turf MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 9


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Reach the Moon
4-1
Bridgmohan S
Cox Brad H.
JTW


098.0546
4
Rock On Kitten(b+)
5-1
Beschizza A
Walsh Brendan P.
FL


097.5152
1
Red Sorrell
3-1
Gaffalione T
Maker Michael J.
SE


096.7518
2
Third Edition(b+)
9/2
Leparoux J R
Correas. IV Ignacio
C


096.4620
10
North Dakota
6-1
Lanerie C J
McGaughey III Claude R




095.6817
6
Blankenbaker
10-1
Chuan M
Romans Dale L.




094.9855
5
Big Time Player
12-1
Hill C
Catalano Wayne M.




094.6059
11
Phantom Currency
15-1
Graham J
Lynch Brian A.




094.1957
3
Candizar
12-1
Morales E
Hawley Wesley E.




092.3076
9
Illidan
15-1
Baze T
Wilkes Ian R.




091.7827
8
Herbies Toys
15-1
Burke J
Corrigan Jimmy




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to CD.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


4
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


1
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


2
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


10
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


6
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


5
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


11
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


3
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


9
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race


8
48.20
1.12
30.20
61
202
[All Dirt] 3YO In 3UP Race

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park


09/19/19, BEL, Race 2, 3.32 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Claiming Price $25,000 (1. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
3
Fortune Smiles
6-1
Franco M
Handal Raymond
T


099.4674
1
Our Honor
9/2
Diaz. Jr. H R
Schettino Domenick L.
EL


099.0880
4
Wisecrack
20-1
Hernandez B
Tournas Peter
W


098.6452
7
Kazmandude
6-1
Hernandez H
Jones Eduardo E.
FC


098.2327
5
Later Cat
3/5
Saez L
Levine Bruce N.
J


097.6722
6
Revenio
10-1
Martinez J R
Zito Nicholas P.
S


092.4429
2
Flying Pleasantly
20-1
Harkie H K
Persaud Randi




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


3
30.60
1.18
46.43
39
84
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3


1
26.70
1.23
22.41
13
58
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Better Win Percent


4
30.60
1.18
46.43
39
84
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3


7
30.60
1.18
46.43
39
84
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3


5
30.60
1.18
46.43
39
84
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3


6
30.60
1.18
46.43
39
84
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3


2
22.00
1.17
46.03
29
63
[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Higher Than Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Sep 19 '19, 1:05 PM in 30m
MLB | SFO vs BOS
Play on: UNDER 8½ +105

Free Total Annihilator On Giants vs Red Sox under 8½ +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin Sep 19 '19, 4:10 PM in 3h
MLB | SDG vs MIL
Play on: UNDER 9 -115

MIKE LUNDIN'S PADRES @ BREWERS FREE PICK
**STUNNING 9-1 NFL YTD ~ TOP RATED TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE PLAY TONIGHT**
The Milwaukee Brewers have plenty on the line down the stretch as they enter Thursday tied with Chicago Cubs for the second wild card in the National League and just three games back of NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals. Great pitching performances have allowed them to win 11 of their last 13 games, and I think we'll see a pitchers duel here at Miller Park Thursday afternoon.
San Diego lefty Joey Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was smacked around for eight runs over 3 2/3 innings of a 10-8 loss at Coors Field last time out, but he had posted a 1.57 ERA through a four-game stretch prior to that and this ballpark should suit him much better. We can also note that he has a 2.31 ERA in two starts against the Brewers and the under is 10-4-1 in Milwaukee's last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter.
As for Milwaukee starter Jordan Lyles (10-8, 4.25 ERA), the 28-year-old right-hander has compiled a 2.39 ERA in nine starts since coming over from Pittsburgh, with one or no runs allowed in seven of those starts.
Under is 21-6 in Padres last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in Lyles' four starts with the Brewers here at Miller Park.
Free pick on UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Sep 19 '19, 7:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Bruins vs Flyers
Play on: Flyers -115 at Bovada

FREE PLAY on Flyers -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Sep 19 '19, 7:15 PM in 6h
MLB | Cardinals vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -103 at BMaker

10* FREE MLB PICK (Cubs -103)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago as a small home favorite against the Cardinals. Hard to not like the Cubs here with Kyle Hendricks on the mound. Hendricks is a respectable 11-9 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 28 starts for 2019, but has been a different guy at home compared to on the road. Hendricks is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in 13 home starts. He also comes in red-hot with a 1.53 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Even better, Hendricks is 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 18 career starts (14-4 team record) against the Cardinals. Give me Chicago -103!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Sep 19 '19, 7:15 PM in 6h
MLB | Cardinals vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs -103 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Chicago Cubs -103
The Chicago Cubs trail the St. Louis Cardinals by three games for first place in the NL Central. They are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. It’s safe to say these games down the stretch mean a lot to the Cubs.
I’ll gladly back Chicago ace Kyle Hendricks at basically even money at home against the Cardinals tonight. Hendricks is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. He owns the Cardinals, going 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 18 career starts against them, including 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last five starts against them while allowing just 5 earned runs in 40 innings.
Jack Flaherty has been great in the second half of the season for the Cardinals. However, he’s up against a Cubs team that he has struggled against recently. Flaherty is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubs, allowing 13 earned runs in 24 innings.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 11-1 in 12 meetings between the Cubs and Cardinals this season. The Cubs are 6-0 at Wrigley Field against the Cardinals. The Cubs are 21-5 in their last 26 home meetings with St. Louis dating back further. Chicago is 14-3 in Hendricks’ last 17 starts against the Cardinals. Bet the Cubs Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) MLB – Red Sox -165
2. Gameday Network MLB – Brewers -175
3. VegasSI.com MLB – Orioles +115
4. Vegas Line Crushers MLB – Twins -1.5
5. Sports Action 365 MLB – Pirates -135
6. Point Spread Report MLB – Yankees -1.5
7. Lou Panelli MLB – Phillies under 8.5
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino MLB – Yankees -1.5
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club MLB – Brewers -175
10. William E. Stockton MLB – Twins -1.5
11. Vincent Pioli MLB – Indians -1.5
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall MLB – Pirates -135
13. SCORE MLB – Red Sox -165
14. East Coast Line Movers MLB – Cardinals -110
15. Tony Campone MLB – Pirates -135
16. Chicago Sports Group MLB – Yankees -1.5
17. Hollywood Sportsline MLB – Brewers under 8.5
18. VIP Action MLB – Phillies +135
19. South Beach Sports MLB – Red Sox over 8.5
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission MLB – Cubs -105
21. NY Players Club MLB – Yankees -1.5
22. Fred Callahan MLB – Phillies under 8.5
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club MLB – Orioles +115
24. Michigan Sports MLB – Indians -1.5
25. National Consensus Report MLB – Brewers -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 19

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PHILADELPHIA (78 - 72) at ATLANTA (93 - 60) - 12:10 PM
AARON NOLA (R) vs. MIKE SOROKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 68-75 (-19.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-41 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ATLANTA is 93-60 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 27-11 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
ATLANTA is 45-27 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ATLANTA is 71-48 (+14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 76-57 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 16-7 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 44-30 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-48 (+6.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 892-938 (+21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 468-469 (+53.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 10-8 (+3.5 Units) against ATLANTA this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.2 Units)

AARON NOLA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
NOLA is 10-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.117.
His team's record is 11-6 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-8. (+0.2 units)

MIKE SOROKA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
SOROKA is 0-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 2.141.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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SAN DIEGO (69 - 83) at MILWAUKEE (82 - 70) - 4:10 PM
JOEY LUCCHESI (L) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 69-83 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 56-64 (-11.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 184-141 (+29.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 77-56 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 100-64 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 79-60 (+17.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
LYLES is 16-10 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 86-108 (-35.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-2 (+3.1 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)

JOEY LUCCHESI vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
LUCCHESI is 1-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.114.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

JORDAN LYLES vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LYLES is 3-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.681.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-7. (-6.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (85 - 67) at CHICAGO CUBS (82 - 70) - 7:15 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-19 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FLAHERTY is 26-32 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-12 (+13.4 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-26 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-11 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 24-9 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 42-19 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 85-67 (+4.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-28 (+8.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 70-52 (+6.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 82-70 (-4.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-47 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 218-250 (-64.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 7-5 (+1.8 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.5 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
FLAHERTY is 2-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.206.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HENDRICKS is 8-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.062.
His team's record is 14-4 (+10.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (-0.6 units)

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LA ANGELS (69 - 83) at NY YANKEES (99 - 54) - 6:35 PM
ANDREW HEANEY (L) vs. J.A. HAPP (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+0.3 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

ANDREW HEANEY vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HEANEY is 1-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.47 and a WHIP of 0.927.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)

J.A. HAPP vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
HAPP is 2-6 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.347.
His team's record is 3-6 (-5.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-1. (+7.0 units)

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TORONTO (61 - 91) at BALTIMORE (49 - 103) - 7:05 PM
ANTHONY KAY (L) vs. AARON BROOKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 52-81 (-26.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 17-12 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 96-218 (-74.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-54 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 18-53 (-28.2 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-39 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 67-148 (-45.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 247-411 (-125.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 12-26 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BALTIMORE is 19-37 (-16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 7-8 (+1.2 Units) against TORONTO this season
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

ANTHONY KAY vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

AARON BROOKS vs. TORONTO since 1997
BROOKS is 0-4 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 16.77 and a WHIP of 2.593.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.7 units)

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DETROIT (45 - 106) at CLEVELAND (89 - 63) - 7:10 PM
DANIEL NORRIS (L) vs. MIKE CLEVINGER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 45-105 (-36.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 11-49 (-26.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 20-45 (-20.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
DETROIT is 24-62 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 32-83 (-34.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 33-70 (-18.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 17-58 (-22.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
NORRIS is 23-20 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 16-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 180-137 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 109-87 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 49-39 (-9.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 27-25 (-13.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVINGER is 11-18 (-17.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 17-1 (+15.6 Units) against DETROIT this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

DANIEL NORRIS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
NORRIS is 3-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.380.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

MIKE CLEVINGER vs. DETROIT since 1997
CLEVINGER is 7-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.88 and a WHIP of 1.064.
His team's record is 7-3 (+2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.2 units)

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KANSAS CITY (56 - 97) at MINNESOTA (93 - 59) - 7:40 PM
MIKE MONTGOMERY (L) vs. KYLE GIBSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 56-97 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 80-145 (-36.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 42-115 (-39.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 93-59 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 61-36 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 42-18 (+20.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MINNESOTA is 54-24 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
GIBSON is 52-25 (+26.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 23-21 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 108-131 (-42.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-3 (+3.9 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)

MIKE MONTGOMERY vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
MONTGOMERY is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

KYLE GIBSON vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
GIBSON is 9-5 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 15-6 (+11.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-8. (+2.7 units)

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SEATTLE (64 - 88) at PITTSBURGH (65 - 87) - 12:35 PM
YUSEI KIKUCHI (L) vs. JOE MUSGROVE (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 (+2.1 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

YUSEI KIKUCHI vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.

JOE MUSGROVE vs. SEATTLE since 1997
MUSGROVE is 1-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.071.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (74 - 78) at BOSTON (79 - 72) - 1:05 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
RODRIGUEZ is 23-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
RODRIGUEZ is 16-3 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
RODRIGUEZ is 30-8 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
RODRIGUEZ is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
RODRIGUEZ is 20-6 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
RODRIGUEZ is 25-2 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 74-78 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 41-36 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 234-218 (+35.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-19 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-17 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 79-72 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 21-23 (-12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
BOSTON is 36-39 (-26.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 162-151 (-57.2 Units) against the money line in home games in September games since 1997.
BOSTON is 2-7 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game this season.
BOSTON is 23-25 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BOSTON is 21-27 (-16.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 36-35 (-7.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 (+3.3 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. BOSTON since 1997
BUMGARNER is 0-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 0.846.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

954 MILWAUKEE -165
Padres are 2-9 since Aug 20, 2019 as a road dog.
Padres are 25-40 since Apr 28, 2019 on the road.
Padres are 20-41 since May 07, 2019 as a dog.
Brewers are 18-7 since Jul 24, 2019 as a favorite.
Brewers are 15-5 since Aug 28, 2019.

967 SAN FRANCISCO +150
Giants are 35-29 since Jun 11, 2019 as a dog.
Giants are 32-24 since Apr 21, 2019 as a road dog.
Giants are 38-27 since Apr 21, 2019 on the road.
Red Sox are 3-6 since Sep 03, 2019 as a favorite.
Red Sox are 5-9 since Sep 03, 2019.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

The Green Wave defense is the unit on the field tonight that is the primary reason the total for this game against the Cougars is not higher than it is.

Tulane's defense held Florida International to just 14 points, and followed by containing Auburn at Auburn, as they limited the Tigers to 24 points on September 7th. Last week they held Missouri State to just 6 points. but because they were able to post 58 points, that game did land Over the total.

The Wave will have their work cut out for them tonight at home, as last season Houston was able to post 48 points in their 48-17 home win and cover. That game marked the 4th season in a row the teams held Under the posted price. D'Eriq King did leave last year's meeting versus Tulane with a knee injury, and the senior does have the Cougars averaging over 30 points per game through their first 3 games this season.

Not to be outdone, Tulane senior QB - Justin McMillan was able to guide the Green Wave to 42 points in their season opener against FIU, and also 58 points last week at home to Missouri State.

McMillan has a senior partner in crime in Darnell Mooney - over 2,000 career receiving yards - to catch the football, and you can expect to see that combination more than a few times connecting tonight against the suspect Houston stop-unit.

56 points is 8 combined touchdowns, and with a pair of veteran QB's running the show on ESPN, I am calling for enough fireworks to get this game Over the total.

Houston-Tulane Over on Thursday.

2* HOUSTON-TULANE OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Both the Titans and the Jaguars sailed Over the total on Week One of the season, but after watching the teams play on Sunday, I don't think I want any parts of looking for an Over tonight - even with this total being extremely low.

Tennessee could only muster 17 points in their home loss to Indianapolis, 17-19, while Jacksonville did not find the end-zone in their 13-12 loss at Houston.

Garner Minshew is not terrible, but the former Washington State QB does not instill confidence in me to back a higher-scoring affair this evening in Jacksonville.

Both Thursday night games thus far this season have held Under the total, and this series has seen 2 of the last 3 meetings hold Under the total. It has also seen 7 of the last 9 division battles played on Jacksonville's field hold Under the total.

With both teams bogging down to the max just 4 short days ago, expect the defenses to have the upper-hand here tonight, and expect our third straight Under on Thursday night to be the totals play.

Titans and Jaguars Under the total.

5* TENNESSEE-JACKSONVILLE UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

MLB & CFB Picks 9/19

100* Blue Jays -120
100* Over 10.5 Twins/Royals
100* Over 57.5 Tulane/Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Sep 19 '19, 7:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Blue Jays vs Orioles
Play on: Blue Jays -125 at betonline

1* Free MLB Pick on Toronto Blue Jays -125
Really like this spot here with Toronto as a small road favorite against the Orioles. Blue Jays have already taken the first two games of this series, as they continue to play well over the final couple weeks of the season. Toronto is now 6-2 in their last 8 and the other 4 wins in this stretch came against the Red Sox and Yankees, so it's not like they have just been feasting on bad teams.
Baltimore clearly can't wait for the season to be over with. Orioles are just 3-11 in their last 14. They have had next to no luck with today's starter Gabriel Ynoa on the mound. He's made 11 starts and Baltimore has lost 10 of them. Ynoa is a big part of the problem, as he's posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in those 11 starts.
Blue Jays are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, 5-0 in Font's last 5 starts vs a division foe and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Toronto!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Sep 19 '19, 7:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Cardinals vs Cubs
Play on: Cardinals -104 at sportsbook

1 Dimer on Cardinals -104

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer Sep 19 '19, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Houston vs Tulane
Play on: Houston +5 -105 at pinnacle

Take the Houston Cougars plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave. Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State as a 9-point underdog last Friday. The Cougars only passed for 128 yards in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. Houston has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in the month of September. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 triumph at home over Missouri State last Saturday. But the Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win by at least 20 points. Tulane has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Take Houston plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.