Sunday 9-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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Dustin Hawkins
Sep 22 '19, 1:00 PM in 4d
NFL | Broncos vs Packers
Play on: UNDER 43½ -110

1 Dimer on Broncos vs Packers under 43½ -110

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Brandon Lee
Sep 22 '19, 4:05 PM in 4d
NFL | Panthers vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +2½ +100 at 5dimes (http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=AF000189&mediaTypeID=220&AffUrlID=229)

10* FREE NFL PICK (Cardinals +2.5)

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Will Rogers
Sep 22 '19, 4:25 PM in 4d
NFL | Saints vs Seahawks
Play on: Seahawks -4½ -111 at Pinnacle (http://cappersmall2.com/lines.php)

The set-up: Drew Brees is out for the Saints. Teddy Bridgewater is in. The Seahawks are 2-0 after an upset road victory at Pittsburgh last weekend and with a date vs. the co-division leading Rams in Week 4, I believe the home side lays everything on the line this week in order to secure the 3-0 start. The Saints are reeling now, but the offense looked terrible last week before Brees went down anyways. I don’t foresee anything changing in a week and with the major change at the QB position.

The pick: Seattle has been getting consistent play on both sides of the ball and Russell Wilson and company are now licking their chops to get a shot at this suspect New Orleans’ secondary. Note that the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their last four anyways after a loss by ten or more points, while Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory by six points or less. Consider the home side in this one.

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Francesa's Week 3 NFL picks

3-4 YTD

Cowboys -22.5
Steelers +6.5
Vikings -8.5

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Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected


LAR -3 at CLE ... top choice of 774 of the 1,875 entrants
PIT +6.5 at SF
HOU +3.5 at LAC
DET +6 at PHI
BAL +6.5 at KC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams

LAR -3 (taken by 1,474 of record 3,328 entrants) at CLE
SEA -4 vs. NO
DET +6 at PHI
PIT +6.5 at SF
BAL +6.5 at KC


SuperContest Gold Top 5

BAL +6.5
CAR +3
DEN +7.5
DET +6
LAR -3

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JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Steelers vs. 49ers

1* Free NFL Pick on Pittsburgh Steelers +7 -125

I love the value here with the Steelers getting a touchdown at San Francisco. With the injury to Ben Roethlisberger no one is giving this Pittsburgh team any shot of being a serious threat this season. I would hesitate before counting out this team.

Sure they might throw in the towel if they string together a bunch more losses, but not way is a Mike Tomlin coached team going to just lay down. You don't make a trade for a guy like Minkah Fitzpatrick if you aren't planning on trying to win.

Mason Rudolph isn't Ben Roethlisberger, but he didn't look overwhelmed at all in relief of Big Ben against the Seahawks. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 for 112 yards and 2 scores. 49ers defense has some decent numbers, but I don't think either of the offenses they have played are in any good.

I also think we are seeing the 49ers overvalued because they have started out 2-0. This is a team a lot of people were high on, so the public isn't hesitating to jump on board. I just don't think SF is good enough to be laying this kind of a number against a team like the Steelers who are going to lay everything they have on the line to win this game. Take Pittsburgh!

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

Detroit at Philadelphia

Eagles (-) over Lions

Yeah right...like I believe the Lions have a chance here...NOPE! 'We' were fortunate to get the outright win last week with Detroit but that's as far as I will push my luck with this bunch. The Eagles fell to the Falcons as expected and return home to host this bunch of imposters. Sorry, Lions fans but your team is full off underachievers and have little to offer in coaching. Philadelphia is facing some issues at quarterback (who isn't) but Doug Peterson is 9-2-1 ATS at home when hosting an opponent off a win. Take the EAGLES! (PS-this is a 'Hate' bet...)

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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Bengals vs. Bills
Bengals+6

Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 467).

Edges - Bengals:

Bills: 12-6-1 ATS Game Three of the season, and 4-1 ATS as dogs versus NFL foes … Bills: 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS off consecutive SUATS wins… We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you good luck as always.

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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Panthers vs. Cardinals

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona Cardinals -2

I like what I’ve seen from the Arizona Cardinals thus far under Kliff Kingsbury. They are 2-0 ATS this season. They tied Detroit in overtime with a nice comeback win. And they hung tough on the road at Baltimore last week in a 6-point loss as 13-point dogs. Kyler Murray is showing a ton of moxy in this offense. The Carolina Panthers are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season. They just keep finding ways to lose close games. And now they probably won’t have Cam Newton, which means backup Kyle Allen will start. Allen started over Murray at Texas A&M back in college, so you know Murray will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Arizona is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Give me the Cardinals.

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JACK JONES
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Ravens vs. Chiefs

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 53

This is one of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate. It’s two teams that look like contenders in the AFC in the Ravens and Chiefs squaring off. And I think this game will be played close to the vest with points a lot harder to come by than this massive total of 53 would indicate. I certainly believe there’s value with the UNDER for a number of reasons.

For starters, these teams played last December in Kansas City in a game that saw 51 combined points in a 27-24 win by the Chiefs. So they are very familiar with one another as they will now be playing in a rematch early in the season after playing late in the year last season.

The Ravens have a great defense every year and are great again this season. They are giving up just 13.5 points and 274.5 yards per game through two weeks. The Chiefs are clearly improved on defense this season with all of the upgrades they made in the offseason. They are only allowing 18.0 points per game on the season after holding the Raiders to just 10 points last week on the road. And keep in mind the Chiefs’ defense always plays better at home in the friendly, loud confines of Arrowhead Stadium.

The Ravens aren’t as good offensively as they’ve shown thus far. They have played two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Dolphins and Cardinals. Lamar Jackson looks improved, but now he faces a different animal here in the Chiefs on the road. And I expect the Ravens to deploy a similar strategy to last year’s meeting. They ran the ball 39 times and controlled time of possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. They will do the same and try and shorten this game, which definitely favors the UNDER.

UNDERS went 13-3 last week in the NFL. I think all these extra holding penalties being called on the offenses has certainly favored lower scoring games and finally there’s some rules that benefit the defenses. The UNDER is 50-23-1 in the Chiefs’ last 74 home games. Finally, there is a 60% chance of rain Sunday in Kansas City with the forecast calling for scattered thunderstorms. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Steelers vs. 49ers
Free Total Annihilator On Steelers vs 49ers under 44 -110

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SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Lions vs. Eagles
Lions+6 -105

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions are not going to be a popular underdog on Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia but I absolutely love the way they’re set up to give the Eagles a serious run if not win outright. Philadelphia suffered a number of key injuries in last Sunday night’s loss in Atlanta. Credit the Eagles for still managing to take the Falcons down to the wire but now I expect a letdown of sorts back at home against the Lions. Detroit quietly picked up a nice win over the Chargers in its home opener last Sunday. Philadelphia is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, including Malik Jackson and Tim Jernigan and that opens the door for the Lions to run wild in this contest. While the Lions gameplan is called into question a lot of weeks due to their ‘run-first’ philosophy, I don’t mind the way they’ve approached their first two games this season, resulting in an undefeated 1-0-1 mark. Here, the Lions defense catches a major break with the Eagles missing the likes of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert. That’s not to mention the fact that QB Carson Wentz was forced to leave last Sunday night’s game in Atlanta at one point. Philadelphia’s ground game has not impressed in the early going this season and I suspect it will have a tough time putting this game to bed should the Eagles build a lead.

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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Giants vs. Bucs
Giants+6 -108

The New York Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS on the season, but they've finally decided to give rookie Daniel Jones under center for his first NFL start. I think the change of quarterback will give the Giants enough of an energy boost to keep this close.

Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards, two TDs and no interceptions during preseason, and I think he'll match up well against a Bucs defense that is vulerable against the pass. The Giants offense has not been bad mind you; they rank 6th for total offense with 420 yards per game and star running back Saquon Barkley, NFL's second-leading rusher with 227 yards, will take a lot of pressure off Jones.

As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they're in a letdown spots following a 20-14 upset win at Carolina in the Week 2. They didn't look nearly as good in their season-opening double-digit home loss to San Francisco, and Jameis Winston has a 59 percent completion rate with 2 TDs against 3 INTs.

The Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog while the Bucs regularly disappoint as a home favorite. I'm well happy to take the points on the visitors in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-9
Against the Spread 5-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-11

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 20-10-1
Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 14-16-1
Against the Spread 9-21-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-18

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+6.5, ML +250) at Panthers, 20-14
Seahawks (+4, ML +180) at Steelers, 28-26
Colts (+3, ML +155) at Titans, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-18) at Dolphins, 43-0
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders, 28-10
Cowboys (-6) at Redskins, 31-21

Mining Road Wins

-- The San Francisco 49ers (+1, ML +105) paddled the Cincinnati Bengals by a 41-17 score, posting road victories in consecutive weeks to open the regular season for the first time since 1989 when they won three straight on the road in Weeks 1-3 with QB Joe Montana at the helm. The 49ers are averaging 36.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.0 PPG while covering both games at one-point underdogs. Next up will be their home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. The Steelers enter 0-2 SU/ATS, and QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) and RB James Conner (knee) might not be available.

Wounded Wings

-- The Philadelphia Eagles saw several star players leave their Sunday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons, but they held a late 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter before WR Julio Jones broke free for a 54-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play to secure victory for the home side. The Eagles lost WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to injuries, as well as QB Carson Wentz for a brief period. TE Dallas Goedert was also lost to an injury in a game which was super costly to the visitors, and they ended up losing and not covering, either.

Miami Mice

-- For the second consecutive weekend the laughingstock of the NFL was the Miami Dolphins. After opening the season with a 59-10 shellacking from the Baltimore Ravens the New England Patriots strolled into town as 18-point favorites. While the Patriots didn't get off to as quick of a start as the Ravens, they made up for lost time in the third quarter, including a pair of pick-sixes. When the dust settled, the Dolphins were on the short end of a 43-0 score, and they have been outscored 92-10 through the first two games. As such, they have opened as 21-point underdogs for their Week 3 road game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Total Recall

-- The under was 11-3 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, including the games with the top five totals on the board. Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders (53), Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons (53), New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams (52.5), New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (48.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers (48) each cashed the under, and a couple of the results were never in doubt. In fact, the Saints-Rams shootout never materialized, helped out in part by QB Drew Brees (hand/thumb) leaving the game, had a total of 6-3 at halftime. Hopefully you had a few 'under' tickets in your pocket this week.

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of pick-sixes in their blowout loss, but even his best (or worst) efforts couldn't help the total go 'over', similiar to Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, who had two pick-sixes in an 'under' result in Week 1 against the 49ers.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Chicago Bears-Denver Broncos (40.5) game. It was expected to be a defensive grind, and it was. The Bears, who totaled just three points in their opening game loss in Week 1, didn't score their first touchdown of the season until the third quarter. Through eight quarters the Bears have generated just 19 total points, including only one touchdown. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 2-0 for Chicago so far. For the Broncos, they fell at Oakland in Week 1 on Monday Night, and they're 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and the 'under' is also 2-0.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 2, with the Monday Night Football battle between the Cleveland Browns-New York Jets (45) still pending. The 'over' is 1-5 (16.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- As mentioned, the Steelers lost Roethlisberger (elbow) and Conner (knee) to injuries in the first half. QB Mason Rudolph and RB Jaylen Samuels were forced to pick up the slack. Big Ben is set for an MRI on Monday.

-- Brees (hand) banged his right throwing hand on a rushing Rams DT Aaron Donald, and he was unable to return. He will remain in Southern California to see a hand specialist. QB Teddy Bridgewater finished up, and would start Week 3 if needed.

-- Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) missed a chunk of the game at Baltimore due to a wrist injury, but ultimately was able to return and finish up.

-- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee) left the game in Washington due to a knee issue, and he'll go for an MRI.

-- As mentioned, the Eagles lost Wentz (ribs, concussion) briefly before he was cleared to return. Jackson (groin) left in the second quarter and was unable to return, Jeffery (calf) left early and didn't come back. Goedert (calf) also left in the first half and didn't return, while Agholor (concussion) was out for a couple of drives before passing tests and returning to finish.

Looking Ahead

-- The Titans and Jaguars will do battle on Thursday Night Football in Northast Florida, with the Titans installed as slight road favorites (-2.5). They're 1-4 ATS in the past five games inside the AFC South, and 16-34-3 ATS in the past 53 against losing teams. The Jaguars are 3-9-2 ATS in the past 14 games ovoerall, and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight divisional games, so something's gotta give. In this series, Tennessee has covered four in a row, while the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, the Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Duuuuuval.

-- The Jets hit the road trying to cool off the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight against AFC East foes while going 0-5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Patriots have covered seven of the past nine divisional games, while going 40-16-2 ATS in the past 58 at Gillette Stadium, including their 33-3 win against the Steelers in Week 1. In this series, the Jets are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four trips to Foxboro, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, while the under has cashed in six in a row.

-- The Giants and Buccaneers seem to meet fairly frequently despite the fact they're not in the same division. New York has connected in seven of the past eight on the road against the spread. The Bucs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing record, and 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight vs. NFC. In this series, the G-Men are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to the RayJay, while going 6-1-2 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.

-- The Bears and Redskins will square off on Monday night, with the Bears installed as four-point favorites to open. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, although the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The Bears are also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings with the 'Skins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6½) 20, Carolina Panthers 14 (48): The Thursday night game featured a weather delay and a slow early scoring pace as Joey Slye hit four field goals to give the Panthers a brief 12-10 lead halfway through the third quarter. Tampa Bay answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive as the road underdog took a 17-12 lead heading into the fourth quarter on a Peyton Barber score. After a Carolina fumble and a missed Tampa Bay field goal, Barber would be the victim of a safety early in the fourth as the Panthers climbed within three points to keep overtime in the range of possibility. Getting good field position after the defensive score the Panthers were stopped on 4th-and-short just past midfield but a pair of punts followed before the Buccaneers extended the lead to six points. Cam Newton and the Panthers got the ball back with just over two minutes remaining needing a touchdown drive and they eventually reached the Tampa Bay 11-yard-line with a new set of downs. Short gains and a penalty left the Panthers facing 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard-line and a direct snap to Christian McCaffrey was sniffed out as the Buccaneers were the NFC South squad to avoid the 0-2 start.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) 19, Tennessee Titans 17 (43½): The Colts had two first half touchdowns but led only 13-7 with another missed PAT from Adam Vinatieri. The Titans scored on a short field after the break to lead 14-13 and then after a Jacoby Brissett fumble, Tennessee added a field goal despite only picking up 14 yards. The Titans forced a punt and had the momentum to put the game away after pass interference call converted a big 3rd down. A few plays later Marcus Mariota was sacked on the subsequent 3rd down and the Titans settled for a kick to go up seven, only this time Cairo Santos missed. The Colts didn’t take advantage on its next possession but getting the ball back with just under seven minutes remaining the Colts were able to hit a big play with a 55-yard-run and got the eventual touchdown to take the lead. Vinatieri would again miss the PAT however to leave the lead in jeopardy. The Titans had an opportunity crossing midfield in the final minute but ultimately couldn’t get the job done as the Colts played a second-straight down-to-the-wire game, this time winning.

Detroit Lions (+1) 13, Los Angeles Chargers 10 (47): The Lions missed a field goal six minutes before halftime and allowed the Chargers to add three before the break to trail 10-6. Matthew Stafford had an interception on the first drive of the second half but the Lions were bailed out with the defense forcing a fumble of Austin Ekeler on 1st-and-goal. More mistakes followed as the Chargers missed two field goals surrounding another Stafford interception before Detroit broke through in the fourth quarter with a big play to Kenny Golladay, leading 13-10. The Chargers reached the red zone late in the fourth quarter but went backwards and Philip Rivers wound up intercepted on 3rd-and-19 before the Chargers had a chance to struggle with the decision to try for the tying field goal from punter Ty Long who was serving as the kicker with Michael Badgley injured.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) 31, Washington Redskins 21 (46): After a scoreless first quarter Washington took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter that held until Dallas hit a 51-yard touchdown with about six minutes remaining. Dallas also managed to find the end zone just before halftime to suddenly take a 14-7 lead. The Cowboys kept the momentum with another touchdown out of the break to lead 21-7 but Washington answered to sit a point short of the underdog number down 21-14. Dallas had a touchdown brought back on a penalty and Washington’s defense was able to hold for a field goal, sitting just one touchdown away from covering the number into the fourth quarter. A promising drive stalled just past midfield and with still more than 11 minutes on the clock Washington went for it on 4th-and-3 and came up empty. Dallas put the game away with another touchdown on the short field. Washington would climb back within 10 with a touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to clear the ‘over’ but they couldn’t get a stop to get the ball back.

Houston Texans (-7) 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 12 (43½): Houston led just 6-3 through three quarters after a scoreless third quarter but the first touchdown of the game came from Deshaun Watson with just over 11 minutes remaining. That touchdown put the Texans past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars down the field for a field goal to trim the margin to seven, with a spread that closed right at +7 from as high as +9½. The Jaguars held on defense to get the ball back and Jacksonville converted two fourth downs on the way to the red zone. With 30 seconds left Minshew connected with DJ Clark and down by one the Jaguars opted to go for the win but came up short on a Leonard Fournette rush attempt.

Green Bay Packers (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 16 (43): After a win in Week 1 but limited offensive production for the Packers in Matt Lafleur’s debut, Green Bay came out firing in the home opener. The Packers scored just over two minutes into the game and eventually went up 21-0 early in the second quarter. Dalvin Cook broke a 75-yard run to break the momentum for the Packers and after missing an early field goal Dan Bailey added three before halftime to put the Vikings back in the game down 21-10 after the Packers opted not to kick on 4th-and-1 from the Minnesota 25. The Vikings thought they added seven on that drive with a three-yard score to Stefon Diggs questionably overturned via replay to call offensive pass interference under the new challengeable rules. Green Bay would fumble on its first possession of the second half and the Vikings added a short field touchdown to climb within five, with Bailey’s PAT blocked. Five straight punts followed as neither offense could get anything going and ‘over’ backers moaned after supposedly sitting pretty with the hot scoring start. The Vikings were poised to take the lead with about five minutes remaining reaching the Green Bay 8-yard-line with a new set of downs but Kirk Cousins made an ill-advised throw to the corner of the end zone that was intercepted on 1st down. Green Bay was able to run out most of the remaining clock to hold on despite the offense disappearing, while the ‘under’ also held on.

Chicago Bears (-3) 16, Denver Broncos 14 (40½): The spread on this game fluctuated a lot after quickly rising from even to the Bears as a slight favorite. A common number was -2 for the Bears much of the weekend but on Sunday afternoon the Bears hit -2½ and eventually -3. Chicago didn’t impress early in the game but managed a 13-3 edge through three quarter to sit comfortably ahead of the number. In the fourth the Broncos completed a lengthy drive to add three points and were poised to tie the game with 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard-line. Joe Flacco eventually was intercepted but pinned deep Chicago punted a few plays later to give the Broncos another shot. This time Flacco delivered including two 4th down conversions and after the touchdown with 31 seconds left Flacco delivered what looked like the game-winning two-point conversion in a huge bold play from Vic Fangio against his old team. It was not to be as a borderline 1st down roughing the passer call gave the Bears a big boost and Mitchell Trubisky struck for 25 yards on 4th-and-15 in the final seconds. Chicago still had a timeout and new kicker Eddy Pineiro became a hero hitting from 53 yards.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (53½): The Falcons had a 17-6 edge in the third quarter of this game but Matt Ryan had an interception deep in his own territory to get the Eagles back in the game. Philadelphia appeared to add the two-point conversion as well but Carson Wentz was ruled down just short of the line as Atlanta held a five-point lead. Ryan would be intercepted in the end zone on the next possession when a field goal could have put the margin to eight points. After swapping punts Philadelphia delivered a tremendous 13-play drive to burn well over eight minutes to take the lead. Up by one the two-point conversion try loomed large on a spread that was commonly +2 before sliding to +1 and the Eagles hit Zach Ertz to lead by three. Atlanta stalled near midfield facing 4th-and-3 at its own 46 when a short pass to Julio Jones to get past the sticks turned into a 54-yard score. Up four Atlanta’s defense still had a lot of work ahead with the Eagles converting an epic 4th-and-14 for 43 yards and getting a free timeout as an Atlanta player was injured on the play. With still a minute to go, an Eagles score seemed inevitable but the Eagles picked up just two yards in the next three plays and faced 4th-and-8. Wentz hit Ertz again incredibly close to the line but he was ruled just short with that spot holding on review as Atlanta escaped with the win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

After last week's piece shifted the focus to the collegiate game, it's back to discussing NFL action this week now that we've got essentially two full weeks under our belt. The Browns and Jets still have to do battle tonight, and some could say that Jets QB Sam Darnold and his mono diagnosis kicked off a brutal week for QB injuries. ON Sunday we saw Saints QB Drew Brees get knocked out of the game with a thumb injury that will have him on the shelf for multiple weeks, and Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisberger is now lost for the year with elbow concerns.

With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement at the end of August, it's been an ever-changing landscape at the QB position so far in the NFL, and chances are it won't end there. The Giants and Dolphins have legitimate questions to ask themselves about who will be their starter for the bulk of the season, and a team like Washington is starting to inch closer to that boat as well.

QB issues aside, Week 3 is always an interesting one as we've now come and gone through Opening Week and Overreaction Week in the betting market, and more data points are out there to use as support. Team identities are starting to get firmer – if their QB has stayed healthy – and for some, it's about potentially preventing their season from going off the rails after a rough start.

It's that notion that I've isolated for this week, as Week 3 brings some of their own interesting betting opportunities for NFL teams that have been money burners (0-2 ATS) or money earners (2-0 ATS) so far. The market has seen (or been burnt) by these teams inability to cash betting tickets, and that in itself can create market disparities in terms of the perception and reality of how good a certain team may actually be.

So it's “perfect” ATS teams in the NFL that are travelling in Week 3 that have become the focus this week. While two of the winless squads – New Orleans and Pittsburgh – have new QB's starting in Week 3 and may be taken much more lightly or even omitted from this following group, the changes at QB are likely to create an even bigger gap in terms of the perception of those squads.

But here are the situations to keep in mind as you go through the week breaking down the board:

Who's Hot

Back the Money Burners on the road
NFL teams that are 0-2 ATS and are playing on the road in Week 3 are 9-3 ATS the past three seasons

This trend seems to be a strong one over the past three years and it's done well in each individual year as well, as the record sits at 7-2 ATS the past two years, and it was 4-1 ATS in 2018. On the surface, a trend like this does make some sense in the idea that 0-2 ATS squads can be a little undervalued after being money burners (for a variety of reasons) through two weeks. Bettors maybe haven't like what they've seen from these squads, have been burned by them for a big wager, last leg of a parlay etc, and or just don't believe they are a capable or competitive team that season. This year we've got six (potentially seven) different teams fitting this role too.

The list of teams that are 0-2 ATS and on the road in Week 3 are Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, the New York Giants and possibly the New York Jets should they fail against the number on MNF. All of those squads do fit different aspects of the reasons behind having yet to cover a spread, and having already discussed the situations that face New Orleans and Pittsburgh this week, I won't go more in-depth on them. But chances are both will be a little undervalued – especially compared to what they could have been with Brees and Roethlisberger under center – and may be worth a look once point spreads are established.

Miami and the Giants definitely fit the bill of being teams that aren't likely to be all that competitive this year, as they've shown nothing to have bettors believe putting their hard earned money down on them is worth the risk. The Giants are currently catching +6.5 points nearly everywhere as they head down to Tampa Bay to face a well-rested Bucs team, while Miami's going to Dallas and currently catching three TD's. I can't imagine either of those sides being all that popular as the week goes on, but points are points and they might actually be catching a few more then they should be given the overall perception of the organizations. Week 3 has proven in the past that some level of professional pride tends to kick in for these slumping squads, and I would venture a guess that at least one of the Giants or Miami ends up cashing an ATS ticket this week.

The remaining two teams that are for sure on this list are Chicago and Carolina, and each are road chalk in Washington and Arizona respectively. Laying points with these “money burners” may look tough to do for some, but it again speaks to the idea that they may actually be a little undervalued right now because of that 0-2 ATS start. The Bears and Panthers are both hovering around laying a FG against their respective opponents, and you can't help but wonder if they were 1-1 ATS already, would these spreads be a point or two higher. That's a question you should keep in mind throughout the week, as if Arizona and Washington find themselves turning into 'public home dogs', it might be best to expect the Panthers and Bears to get into that ATS winner's circle.


Who's Not

Fade the Money Earners
2-0 ATS teams that are on the road in Week 3 are 3-9 ATS the past three seasons

This run is quite the opposite idea of things when you sit down and think about it, as these perfect ATS teams that go out on the road – sometimes for the first time that year – tend to be thought too highly of in terms of either the number that exists out there and/or the perception in terms of generating a strong majority of support from the market. It's been a great two opening weeks for these teams and bettors – the majority of whom love to ride streaks – have no problem backing the hot hand because that's what's worked so far.

So whether or not these lines are actually inflated or not to the side of these perfect ATS road teams can be debated, but just because something has worked twice so far, doesn't mean it will continue to work going forward. That's such a reactive way to handicap in my opinion and being proactive - whether it's getting action down early in the week, finding more predictive numbers/stats to base opinions on etc – will tend to bring you more success.

This year, we've only got one team that fits that role, and it's the LA Rams on SNF as they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns. Depending on how Cleveland performs tonight will have plenty to do with the number that comes out – especially if Cleveland stinks up the joint again and/or loses to a Jets team without their starting QB.

But for a market who was all about backing the Saints this past week with their revenge narrative against the Rams, LA's performance in that game – even with Brees getting hurt – had to increase their stock in the eyes of many, especially those who had the Saints this weekend, and should the Browns lose tonight on MNF, without question an early flurry of Rams money is likely to flood in. That scenario would set up a situation where we'd have a 2-0 ATS Rams team visiting an 0-2 ATS Browns team, and 0-2 ATS teams at home in Week 3 are 5-3 ATS the past two seasons.

It may be then that we see all this Browns love we've seen and heard about in the market for months finally come to fruition, but regardless of what happens on MNF tonight, I'd be hesitant to pull the trigger on the defending NFC Champions next week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3


Sunday, September 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (0 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 194-139 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (1 - 0 - 1) vs. PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-52 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (2 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (0 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-146 ATS (+43.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-146 ATS (+34.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 102-75 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (0 - 2) at DALLAS (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 30-5 ATS (+24.5 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (0 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 0) - 9/22/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (2 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/22/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 195-240 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 195-240 ATS (-69.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 149-190 ATS (-60.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-103 ATS (-43.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 2) - 9/23/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-121 ATS (-42.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-121 ATS (-42.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-121 ATS (-42.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report


Sunday, September 22

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games at home
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Dallas
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Denver is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Denver is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 15 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games
Oakland is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Cincinnati is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 11 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 21 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

New England Patriots
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 14 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
NY Jets is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing New England
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Detroit is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games at home
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Arizona is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Carolina is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games
NY Giants is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Houston is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing New Orleans
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games
New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing Seattle
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
San Francisco is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games at home
San Francisco is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 16-6-1 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 22 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3


Sunday, September 22

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Game 465-466
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
135.477
Kansas City
144.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6 1/2); Over

NY Jets @ New England

Game 473-474
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.578
New England
149.004
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 30 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 22 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-22 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

Game 467-468
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
126.218
Buffalo
129.795
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+6); Under

Oakland @ Minnesota

Game 471-472
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
124.397
Minnesota
135.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 11
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 8
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-8); Under

Denver @ Green Bay

Game 461-462
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
126.400
Green Bay
132.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 8
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+8); Over

Detroit @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.076
Philadelphia
136.623
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-6 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Indianapolis

Game 469-470
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.510
Indianapolis
133.871
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+2); Over

Miami @ Dallas

Game 475-476
September 22, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
114.986
Dallas
132.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 17
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 21 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+21 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Arizona

Game 479-480
September 22, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
129703
Arizona
124.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-2 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Game 477-478
September 22, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
123.830
Tampa Bay
128.478
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 4 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+7); Over

Houston @ LA Chargers

Game 483-484
September 22, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
133.658
LA Chargers
134.044
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Even
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+3 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Seattle

Game 481-482
September 22, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
129.617
Seattle
135.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-4); Under

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco

Game 485-486
September 22, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
131.817
San Francisco
135.057
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+7); Under

LA Rams @ Cleveland

Game 487-488
September 22, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
140.791
Cleveland
127.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 13
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL odds turned upside down after Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger injuries
Jason Logan

Las Vegas oddsmakers estimate Ben Roethlisberger to be worth about 6.5 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers' pointspreads.

It was a bad Sunday for future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, as Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger went down with injuries that are stirring up the NFL odds for Week 3 and beyond.

Brees left the New Orleans Saints’ highly-anticipated matchup with the Los Angeles Rams with a thumb injury that will require surgery, leaving him on the sidelines for at least six weeks. Roethlisberger was forced out of the Pittsburgh Steelers' loss to the Seattle Seahawks with an elbow injury that will end his 2019 season just two games into the schedule.

New Orleans’ Week 3 odds for the team’s road game against the Seattle Seahawks were off the board as of Monday morning. According to oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Superbook at Westgate, if Brees was healthy, the line would be New Orleans +1. However, with Brees out, the Superbook projects a spread of Saints +5.5 or higher with No. 2 passer Teddy Bridgewater expected to start.

As for Pittsburgh’s Week 3 trip to play the San Francisco 49ers, sportsbooks are hanging the Steelers as 1-point underdogs. Covers’ senior writer in Las Vegas, Patrick Everson, reports that oddsmakers priced Roethlisberger to be worth about 6.5 points to Pittsburgh’s spreads, due to a less-experienced backup in QB Mason Rudolph.

The Week 3 NFL odds weren’t the only lines moving in Vegas upon the news of these quarterback injuries. The Saints’ odds to win the Super Bowl slipped from as far as 9/1 to 20/1 to win the Big Game while the Steelers dropped from 20/1 to 50/1 at William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and New Jersey.

Divisional odds were also on the move Monday morning. New Orleans remains the favorite to win the NFC South, set at -120 at Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks. However, the Atlanta Falcons (+165), Carolina Panthers (+700), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1,100) all saw their divisional futures adjust.

Over in the AFC North, Pittsburgh is now +1,600 to win the division behind the Baltimore Ravens (-200) and Cleveland Browns (+170) while the Cincinnati Bengals are listed as +3,000 long shots at Caesars' sportsbooks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 3 odds: Catch the Chiefs below the key number
Jason Logan

If you aren’t sold on the Ravens running up the score and think the Chiefs are worth your pocket change, hit the home side under the key number of seven right now.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

Week 3 gives us a clearer picture of who teams really are but there’s not enough out there to point the finger with confidence. That makes getting down on the best spread and total for your opinion even more important. Here goes Week 3...

SPREAD TO BET NOW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5

NFL bettors get a great game in the 1 pm E.T. slot in Week 3 with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs butting heads in a battle of offenses ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in average yards, respectively. However, Baltimore’s results should be treated like a king cobra: respect what it can do, but don’t trust it.

The Ravens ransacked the boxscore in matchups with Miami and Arizona – two teams that sat at the bottom of the NFL season win totals board this summer. Baltimore’s defense could be exposed against this elite K.C. offense. The Ravens gave Arizona only 22 minutes with the football last Sunday and rookie passer Kyler Murray produced 349 yards passing and 17 points in that short frame. Baltimore is allowing 5.4 yards per play through two weeks, yet ranks second in yards allowed per game. Hmmmm.

Kansas City is in Arrowhead for the first time this season after two solid road showings. The Chiefs blasted Oakland in Week 2 after putting 40 on the Jacksonville Jaguars (who lost their starting QB in the middle of the game) in Week 1. While those opponents/circumstances are almost as soft as the Ravens’ slate, Kansas City did do so away from home and will have a sizable edge in the homer opener Sunday, especially when it comes to crowd noise versus Lamar Jackson and this wheelin’-dealin’ Baltimore attack.

If you aren’t sold on the Ravens running up the score and think the Chiefs are worth your pocket change, hit the home side under the key number of seven right now. Plenty of books have already moved to -7 so getting the fave at -6.5 could be vital in what should be a really fun game.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: MIAMI DOLPHINS +21.5

There’s a point in every bad team’s season in which the betting markets over-correct so much, it actually makes a bad bet a good one. And for a team as bad as the Dolphins, that tipping point could be as early as Week 3.

The math is simple: one team heading down, losing its first two games by a combined 92 points, and tanking like Zion Williamson is waiting on the other side. The other team is 2-0, putting up the second-most yardage in the NFL, and one of the most popular franchises (and bets) in all of sports. Mix it up in a bowl with a dash of early sharp money, and you get a spread moving from as low as -15.5 to -21.5 on the home side.

For those not tempted by more than three touchdowns worth of cushion, know this: Dallas has played two terrible football teams (New York and Washington) in the opening weeks of the season, so tread lightly with those big numbers. And in both of those games, there were moments in which the Cowboys took their foot off the gas and made bettors a little uncomfortable (trust me I know. I’m a Dallas fan). The team surrendered 10 points in the second half to the Giants (seven in the fourth) and allowed the Redskins to score 14 in the second half (seven in the final frame). Those types of let-ups are the nightmares backdoor covers are made out of.

If you’re on the fence about the Dolphins, just let the media puff up the Cowboys and bash the Fins (especially now that they’re trading away top young players) this week. Come Sunday, you could be looking at even more points.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 44.5 NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE

How much is Drew Brees worth to the Saints’ odds? Well, the lookahead had New Orleans getting a point in Seattle with a total of 50 before Brees was ruled out for the next six weeks with a thumb injury. So, do the math lazy.

Losing Brees is crushing but the Saints are somewhat set up to absorb that injury better than most teams. Backup Teddy Bridgewater has experience and shared plenty of reps with dynamic QB Taysom Hill in the preseason. That switch does shorten the New Orleans attack, but it doesn’t completely pull the plug.

The Seahawks offense went back to the basics in Week 2, running the football 33 times and chewing up almost 36 minutes in time of possession in a win over Pittsburgh. Last season, the Seahawks loved to pound the turf at CenturyLink, averaging 175.5 yards on the ground per home game (almost 39 yards more than on the road) with nearly six more handoffs as a host.

This game is also in Seattle, where people still put weight into this home-field edge. I will say, the crowd noise could give the Saints’ backups some issues on snap counts and audibles and rain is also in the forecast for Sunday, so yeah… it’s Seattle.

If you project a low-scoring finish in the wake of the Brees injury, then have at it. This total will likely tick down before the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. But watch for sharp buy back on the Over. Plug this Over/Under into your Covers Live App and let the line alerts do the heavy lifting.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 48 HOUSTON AT L.A. CHARGERS

These teams combined for a grand total of just 23 points in Week 2, with Houston just getting past Jacksonville 13-12 and Los Angeles falling 13-10 at Detroit. That’s ticked this total down from 49 points to as low as 47.5 at some books.

Those early Under bettors have been quick to downgrade two very strong offensive teams that ran into solid defenses and played in tough situational spots last Sunday. I try to keep my own wagers out of the way with these “Bet Now/Later” articles, but I like the Over in this Week 3 matchup and love seeing the total go the other way.

Houston has a loaded receiving corps and showed that on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and now that group gets to snack on a bunch of rusty lawn chairs – or whatever secondary the Bolts have left after getting chewed up by the injury bugs. Unfortunately for the Texans, their defense is not so loaded, giving up key plays and big gains to both Brees in the opener and rookie QB Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars last week.

The L.A. offense (which sits fourth in yards per game) left a ton of points on the table in Motown, with two touchdowns called back on penalties, a goal-line fumble, an interception in the end zone and two missed field goals. We’ve seen the Chargers do this exact thing in the past, only to rebound with a strong scoring effort the following week.

If you’re like me and love the Over, be patient and let this continue to creep down. Injury reports on Thursday and Friday won’t paint a pretty picture for the Bolts pass defense, so you might want to snap up the Over on the lowest number you can get before then. Good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL trends for Week 3:

— Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs AFC opponents.

— Eagles covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite.

— Vikings are 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.

— Denver is 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Patriots covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Raiders covered their last six road openers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Can the Cowboys or Patriots break the betting curse of the NFL's biggest favorites?
Jason Logan

Despite decades of dominance, it would seem the one thing Tom Brady & Co. can’t conquer is the 20-plus mountain at the sportsbook. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS when giving 20 or more points to opponents.

A 20-point favorite in the NFL is somewhat like a Siberian tiger: you know they’re out there, but you don’t see them often.

Well, someone better call National Geographic because Week 3 of the NFL season features not one – but two 20-point faves on Sunday’s odds board. The New England Patriots are currently 22.5-point home favorites hosting the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys are giving 21.5 points to the visiting Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots are no strangers to lofty pointspreads. New England just breezed through an 18-point spread on the road against the Dolphins last Sunday, cruising to a 43-0 victory (setting the table for the Miami-Dallas line), and going back to 1984 has been a favorite of 20-plus points four times in that span.

However, despite all the Super Bowl rings and decades of dominance, it would seem the one thing Tom Brady & Co. can’t conquer is the 20-plus mountain at the sportsbook. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS when giving 20 or more points to opponents, which is par for the course when it comes to these monumental handicaps.

In that same 35-year span (our Covers databases goes back as far as 1984), there have been seven NFL favorites of 20 points or more and none of those teams have covered the spread: a perfect 0-7 ATS for the greatest betting mismatches in NFL history.

Here’s a quick rundown of those odds and results:

October 13, 2013 - Jacksonville at Denver (-26.5): Denver 35-19
December 12, 2011 – Indianapolis at New England (-20.5) – New England 31-24
December 23, 2007 – Miami at New England (-22) – New England 28-7
December 16, 2007 – N.Y. Jets at New England (-20.5) – New England 20-10
November 25, 2007 – Philadelphia at New England (-24) – New England 31-28
December 5, 1993 – Cincinnati at San Francisco (-24) – San Francisco 21-8
October 11, 1987 – Atlanta at San Francisco (-23.5) – San Francisco 25-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 2:

Road Teams: 21-10-1 ATS
Home Teams: 10-21-1 ATS

Favorites: 13-18-1 ATS
Underdogs: 18-13-1 ATS

Home Faves: 5-13-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 5-8 ATS

Road Faves: 8-5 ATS
Road Dogs: 13-5-1 ATS

Over/Under: 12-20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL trends for Week 3:

— Bengals covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

— Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 non-division games.

— New England covered 13 of last 19 games vs AFC East foes.

— Colts covered one of their last six road openers.

— Miami covered twice in last eight games vs NFC teams.

— Atlanta covered three of last 13 non-divisional games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Josh Inglis


I WAS BORN A SCRAMBLING MAN

Daniel Jones will take control of the Giants offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mr. Jones will have the services of receiver Sterling Shepard after the wideout cleared concussion protocol this week. It couldn’t have come at a better time as the Buccaneers actually have the league's best DVOA rushing defense — allowing 2.7 yards per carry to opposing backs.

There is no doubt that Jones will be asked to throw a lot, especially if the G-men fall behind. If you think this is the part where we tell you to play the Over on his passing yards, you are mistaken.

We are expecting the rookie to have trouble going through his progressions and tuck and run. At Duke, Jones rushed the ball over 400 times in 36 games and accumulated more than 1300 yards, so we know the first-rounder is familiar with scrambling. It may be a hard market to find, but we are going to seek and destroy the Over on any total below 16-20 rushing yards.


FREEMAN DAYS

The Indianapolis Colts may be without their defensive captain and All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The 2018 league leader in tackles is still in concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game versus the Atlanta Falcons.

This is great news for Falcons back Devonta Freeman. Freeman hasn’t done much on the ground, averaging just 41 yards on 19 totes but has seen at least four targets in each game resulting in six catches for 54 yards. Freeman saw his snap count rise to over 60 percent last week and he will benefit the most by not having the game’s best linebacker on him in coverage.

Take the Over 2.5 receptions for Freeman and if the line rises closer to kickoff and you miss the 2.5, feel safe grabbing the 3.5 as well.


THE END OF A LEGEND

Adam Vinatieri deserves a lot of respect for what he has accomplished in his 24-year NFL career. Perhaps that’s why the Indianapolis Colts kicker still has a job heading into Week 3 after beginning his 2019 season 1-for-3 while missing three-of-five extra points. The writing is on the wall as Indy held kicking tryouts for six different kickers earlier this week.

We don’t see a fairy-tale ending for Vinatieri and are going to fade him in a game that he probably knows could be his last NFL match. If the Colts don’t have faith in going for three, look for them to have a higher probability of going for it on 4th-down instead. Take the Colts Under 1.5 total field goals (+100).


ALLEN’S PASSING: TAKE THREE

Here is your weekly reminder that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is more than just a set of legs. Allen has eclipsed his passing totals in both games this year as his Week 1 and 2 totals were both set around 210 yards. This week will be tougher sledding with the O/U on Allen’s passing total set at 230.5 yards. Good thing for Allen and the Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town for the home opener as the Bills look to go 3-0.

The Bengals are averaging more passing yards per game than the Dallas Cowboys, meaning that Cincy won’t roll over and die, keeping Allen in passing mode. Things aren’t as pretty on the other side of the ball for the Bengals as they are third-worst in total defensive DVOA. We are looking to make it 3-0 on the Over on Allen's passing yard and taking the Over 230.5 as the Bills QB has surpassed 250 yards in both games this year.


BRIDGE IS OUT

We are throwing a first-time prop bet for anyone looking to cheer three-and-outs — there are dozens of us!

Teddy Bridgewater will have nearly a full week to prepare for his first start in a meaningful game since January 2016. The New Orleans Saints new No. 1 QB did not look impressive last Sunday versus the Rams and it wouldn’t surprise us if No. 3 Taysom Hill sees a handful of plays under center.

Game Planning against Teddy & Co. are the Seattle Seahawks who will welcome the Saints to the loudest stadium in the league. The Seahawks have a sneaky good defense as they sit in the top-half in total defense DVOA — 13th in the pass and 9th in the run. The Saints also don’t match up well against the run-heavy Hawks as NO has the worst-ranked DVOA run defense and will be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.

With wind and rain in the forecast, we expect Bridgwater to struggle to move the offense in a tough environment. Take the Saints as the team with most punts (-125)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

461DENVER -462 GREEN BAY
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 straight unders in the last 3 seasons.

463DETROIT -464 PHILADELPHIA
DETROIT is 31-56 ATS (-30.6 Units) in road games after a win since 1992.

465BALTIMORE -466 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

467CINCINNATI -468 BUFFALO
CINCINNATI is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

469ATLANTA -470 INDIANAPOLIS
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

471OAKLAND -472 MINNESOTA
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest in the last 3 seasons.

473NY JETS -474 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 2 seasons.

475MIAMI -476 DALLAS
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games with <=6 days rest in the last 3 seasons.

477NY GIANTS -478 TAMPA BAY
NY GIANTS are 14-2 ATS (11.8 Units) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

479CAROLINA -480 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

481NEW ORLEANS -482 SEATTLE
NEW ORLEANS are 65-42 ATS (18.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

483HOUSTON -484 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 17-1 ATS (15.9 Units) in home games against the AFC South since 1992.

487LA RAMS -488 CLEVELAND
LA RAMS are 149-190 ATS (-60 Units) with <=6 days rest since 1992.

489CHICAGO -490 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 3

Broncos (0-2) @ Packers (2-0)— Broncos lost first two games, outscored 20-3 in first half; Denver is only the 4th team in last 50 years to have no sacks or takeaways in their first two games. Since 2012, Broncos are 6-12 ATS as a road underdog. Denver has two TDs, six FG tries in first two games; they’ve scored only 27 points in seven trips to red zone. Green Bay won two division games to begin season, allowing two TD’s on 26 drives, but Packers have scored only one FG in second half- they didn’t score at all after 2nd drive of game LW. Packers are 21-12-2 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite. Home team is 11-1-1 in this series; Denver lost last four visits here, with three losses by 26+ points.

Lions (1-0-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Detroit blew 24-6 4th quarter lead in tying its opener, then upset Chargers 13-10 LW, picking off Rivers pass in end zone with 1:03 left. Since ’12, Lions are 16-20 ATS as road underdogs- they’re 8-12 in last 20 games as non-division road dogs. Eagles split their first two games, giving up 8.0/7.0 yards/pass attempt. Philly converted 20-35 third down plays- they trailed both games at halftime; Iggles won field position by 7-16 yards. Eagle opponents threw 88 passes, ran ball only 30 times in first two games. Philly covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite. Detroit won three of last four series games, but lost five of last six visits here (last here in ’13).

Ravens (2-0) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Baltimore won its first two games, running ball for 447 yards (QB Jackson ran for 120 yards vs Arizona LW); they’ve converted 14-25 on 3rd down, haven’t turned ball over (+3). Ravens are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 19 drives in their first two games, averaging 11.1/9.4 yds/pass attempt; they’ve had 15 plays already of 20+ yards. KC is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite; they covered only twice in last eight home openers. Chiefs won last two series games (34-14/27-24 OT) but Ravens won three of last four visits here.

Bengals (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, four of which were decided by 4 or fewer points. Cincy covered seven of last nine games as road underdogs; they lost first two games this year, scoring only 16 points in six trips to red zone. Bengals ran ball only 33 times, threw it 93 times in Taylor’s first two games as HC. Buffalo won its first two games, both in Swamp; Bills are 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a HF, but since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS. Buffalo had decent balance in its first two games, running for 279 yards, throwing for 479, converting 10-23 on third down.

Falcons (1-1) @ Colts (1-1)— Colts split their first two road games, converting 14-27 third down plays, running ball for 370 yards; Brissett completed 69.1% of his passes, at 6.1 yards/attempt. Last two years, Indy is 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Colts are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Atlanta split first two games, turning ball over six times (-3), running ball only 34 times while throwing 89 times. Falcons are 0-10 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC foes, 1-7 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs; Atlanta lost three of four visits here, winning last one 31-7 in 2011. Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games outside NFC South.

Raiders (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)— Minnesota covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF. Vikings ran ball for 370 yards in splitting first two games, but completed only 14-32 passes in loss at Lambeau LW. Oakland doesn’t play at home again until Nov 3; Raiders split two division home games, converting 16-28 on 3rd down. Last two years, Oakland is 3-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, 5-12-3 ATS overall outside AFC West- they’re 0-5 ATS in last five games on artificial turf. Oakland covered its last six road openers. Raiders won three of last four visits here; they’re 10-5 overall vs Vikings. Oakland gets G Incognito back from suspension, which helps their OL.

Jets (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Patriots won six in row, 14 of last 16 games vs NYJ, winning last eight meetings here, last three by total of 105-12. NE covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite; they won first two games this year by combined 76-3. Patriots covered 15 of last 18 games when laying double digits- they haven’t allowed a TD yet this year, giving up one FG on 22 drives. Falk gets first NFL start here; he was 20-25/198 in his NFL debut vs Cleveland Monday; he was a 3-year starter in Pac-12, throwing 119 TD’s, 39 INT’s in three years at Wazzu. Gang Green has one TD on 22 drives this year, converting 9-31 on third down. Jets are 6-12-2 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Cowboys (2-0)— Miami traded DB Fitzpatrick to Steelers Monday, as exodus of Dolphins’ good players continues. Miami was outscored 102-10 in first two games, just like the ’73 Saints, who rallied to finish year 5-9. Dolphins have seven turnovers (-6), 10 3/outs on 23 drives, and were outscored 47-0 in 2nd half of games. Cowboys have to avoid overconfidence after pair of NFC East wins; Dallas scored 35-31 points in first two games, converting 13-21 on third down, scoring nine TD’s on 17 drives. Miami covered its last four road openers; over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS. Dallas won last three series meetings, by 17-1-10 points; Miami is 5-3 SU in visits here.

Giants (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Rookie QB Jones gets first NFL start here; how he does is anyone’s guess. Giants have no takeaways yet (-4), allowed 12.7/7.2 yards/pass attempt in first two losses, by 18-14 points (NYG scored first in both games). Opponents have six TD’s on six trips to red zone. Big Blue covered eight of last nine games as a road dog outside the NFC East. Tampa Bay had extra rest after a Thursday win LW; since 2014, Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last two meetings, that were decided by total of five points. Giants won six of last seven series games, winning three of last four visits here. Line jumped 2.5 points wth rookie Jones announced as Giants’ QB.

Panthers (0-2) @ Cardinals (0-1-1)— Cam Newton (foot) is a ??mark here; his backup is Kyle Allen, who won his only start 33-14 in Week 17 LY vs New Orleans (16-27/228 yards). Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 road games; they won last three games vs Arizona but lost 28-21/22-6 in last two visits here- home side won last six series games. Cardinals were outscored 34-6 in first half in their two games (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS); they’re 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 home games. NFC West teams covered seven of first eight games this season; NFC South teams are 1-5 ATS outside their division. Over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS.

Steelers (0-2) @ 49ers (2-0)— Rudolph makes first NFL start; he was on Pitt’s bench LY, so he knows the system— he was a 3-year starter at Oklahoma State, was 12-19/112 vs Seattle LW, throwing two TD’s. Steeler defense gets boost, acquiring DB Fitzpatrick Monday; he’ll start here, but Pitt is 0-2 for first time since 2013 (started 0-4, ended up 8-8). Steelers covered five of last six tries as a road dog. 49ers opened with two road wins; they’re 4-11 ATS in last 15 tries as home favorites. Home side won last four series games; Steelers lost three of last four trips to SF. Niners covered seven of last nine games vs AFC teams. Since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS.

Saints (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0)— Brees has missed only three games since 2006, so this is huge change for Saints; Bridgewater was 17-11 starting for Minnesota in 2014-15- he was 17-30/165 in relief LW in 27-9 loss to Rams. NO is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog. How they adjust their offense with Brees out will be interesting to see; will they use #3 QB Hill and run the option a little? Saints ran ball for only 57 yards LW. Seahawks are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they’ve scored four TD’s in four trips to red zone this year. Seattle won three of last four series games; 2 of the 3 wins were in playoffs. Saints lost last three visits here, by 5-27-8 points. Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 non-division games.

Texans (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)— Houston split its first two games- they were decided by total of 3 points; Texans covered four of last five tries as a road underdog, are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Houston hasn’t allowed a first half TD yet; they converted 13 of 28 3rd down plays. Banged-up Chargers won opener in OT, then threw INT in end zone with 1:03 left in 13-10 loss at Detroit LW. Bolts are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite in Carson; they scored only 20 points in six visits to red zone this year. Chargers won five of last six series games; last meeting was in ’16. This is Texans’ first visit here since ’13. Texans covered seven of last nine as a road dog outside their division.

Rams (2-0) @ Browns (1-1)— LA won first two games, not allowing first half TD;; this is second week in row Rams are playing team coming off a Monday night win, third week in row Rams are favored by 3 or fewer points- they’re 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less. Under McVay, LA is 8-5 ATS as a road favorite. Cleveland split pair of routs to start season; they’re only 5-23 on 3rd down so far, but hit an 89-yard TD to Beckham Monday night. Browns are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog. Rams won four of last five series games, winning 26-20/13-12 in last two visits here (last here in ’11). NFC West teams were 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Bears (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Chicago scored only one TD on 21 drives in its first two games, converting 6-26 on 3rd down; Bears got a 54-yard FG at the gun LW for its first win, temporarily ending their kicking dilemma. Last 5+ years, Bears are 3-4 as road favorites. Redskins allowed 32-31 points in losing pair of division games; they allowed 7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, giving up three TD plays of 50+ yards. Skins are 5-7 ATS in last dozen tries as a home underdog. Washington won last seven series games, with five of seven by 4 or fewer points. Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-8-5 points (last visit here in ’13). Skins covered nine of last 12 non-division games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall


SUNDAY, SEPT. 22

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-5 vs. line since late 2018, 9-19-1 last 29 vs. points since early 2017. Also “under” eleven in a row since mid 2018. Pack “under” 9-3 last 12 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Pack, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 5-7 vs. line since early 2018, though have covered 4 of last 6 as road dog. Lions “under” 8-1 last 9 since late 2018, Birds only 2-7 as Linc chalk since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Lions, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 5-2-1 vs. line last 7 reg season since late 2018. Also covered last four on road. KC just 1-4 last five as Arrowhead chalk reg season. Chiefs also “over” 6-2 last eight reg season.
Tech Edge: Ravens and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy is notable 8-2 last ten as road dog and even after SF loss is 5-1 last six vs. line since late 2018. Bills 1-2 as home chalk LY.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs on 3-12 skid vs. line last 15 on road reg season. Colts “under” 8-3 last eleven since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 1-7 vs. line last eight away from Coliseum LY and now 2-13-2 vs. points last 17 away from home. Oakland also “under” 9-3-1 last 13 away from Coliseum. Zimmer “under” 15-5-1 since late 2017 reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Gase lost and failed to cover all three at Gillette Stadium while with Dolphins, and his Miami teams were just 8-14-1 as dog the past two seasons. Jets also routed last three at Foxborough as home team 7-1-1 last nine in series. Also last six “under” in series. Belichick 18-7 vs. spread reg season at home since 2016.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Miami no covers last five since late 2018 and 2-11 vs. spread last 13 on road. Dak 6-2-1 last nine as host.
Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Eli was 6-1 as road dog LY before losing in opener at Cowboys. Eli “over” 7-3 last ten since late 2018. Bucs 1-6 last seven as home chalk and “under” 7-1 last eight since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cam on 2-8 spread skid since late 2018. Panthers 2-8 vs. line last ten away, and “under” 5-2 last seven since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Cards and “under,” based on Panthers trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Note Saints were 3-0 as dog LY with a healthy Brees (check status here) and prior to last week were 20-8-1 as dog since 2014. Saints also “under” 9-3 last 11 away.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Saints (if dog and Brees plays), based on “totals” and trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Texans on 8-3-1 spread run last 12 reg season. Also “over” last four on road. Bolts just 2-7 vs. spread at Carson since LY.
Tech Edge: Texans and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel 0-4 as road chalk LY, though 4-1 as road dog since LY. Tomlin 2-7 last nine vs. line since late 2018. Niners 2-0 SU and vs. line in 2019.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LA RAMS at CLEVELAND (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams 10-6 vs. spread last 16 as visitor, while Browns 3-1 as home dog LY. Rams “under” 7-2 last 9 away from Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 23

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at WASHINGTON (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden was 5-1 as dog before QB injuries mounted in 2018, now 1-1 as dog in 2019. Bears “under” last 9 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OSKEIM SPORTS

Event: (479) Carolina Panthers at (480) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Arizona Cardinals -127

Note: The analysis below was written prior to Cam Newton being ruled out for Sunday's game. However, the selection remains the same as I had anticipated that Kyle Allen would get the start for the Panthers.

Sources inside the Carolina organization have told me that the team has 'quit' on quarterback Cam Newton, who remains questionable for Sunday's game with a foot injury. Newton has been going to team meetings and rehabbing his sprained left foot but he hasn't seen the practice field as of Thursday. I fully expect backup quarterback Kyle Allen to get the start on Sunday as he has been taking all of the first-team snaps during practice. Reading player's statements to local media also suggests that Allen will be under center against the Cardinals.

I have been extremely impressed with how the Cardinals have played in the first two games of the 2019 campaign. After walking away with a disappointing tie against the Lions in its season opener, Arizona bounced back with a focused effort at Baltimore last Sunday. Specifically, the Cardinals lost 23-16 as thirteen-point underdogs against a Baltimore franchise that is 21-5 all-time against teams from the Pacific and Mountain time zones.

In the event Newton plays, it's important to keep in mind that he is a shell of his former self. Consider Newton's recent health issues: shoulder surgery in the offseason, a foot injury in the preseason and an aggravation of the foot injury in Week 2. The veteran signal-caller entered this season with four-plus carries in 111 of 123 career games but has a total of five carries for negative yardage in 2019.

Newton is no longer a threat with his feet and his ability to throw the ball downfield has all but disappeared. Indeed, Newton has been off-target on a career-high 28% of his throws this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Newton has completed just 56.2% of his passes against an expected completion percentage of 65.5%. The 9.3% difference between those two marks is the largest in football through two games.

If Allen gets the nod for Carolina, Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury will have plenty of intel to work with. Kingsbury recruited Allen to Texas Tech but didn't land the quarterback. "He was like the number one prospect in the country so he probably threw all our letters away and red-buttoned me every time I called him but I remember watching him, he was very, very talented," Kingsbury said. Since drafting Newton, Carolina is 2-4 ATS in games he does not start. Overall. Newton is 6.1 points per game better than Allen so his absence is significant.

Arizona quarterback Kyle Murray has enjoyed a smooth transition from college to the NFL. Murray was drafted by the coach he has known since he was 15 years old and is working within the same offensive scheme that he's had since eighth grade. And, the rookie has wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald at the other end of his passes. Fitzgerald has 100 yards in his first two games of the season for the first time in his 16-year career (his 217 receiving yards are his second-most through two games).

Murray is only the second NFL quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in his first two games of his rookie season. And he should have the services of running back David Johnson, who practiced in full on Wednesday after suffering a left wrist injury in Baltimore. Johnson is set to have a breakout day against a subpar Carolina defense that is yielding 133 rushing yards per game. I also like the fact that rookie quarterbacks are a profitable 23-11 ATS in the first three weeks of the season since 2013.

From a technical standpoint, the Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten road games and 2-8 ATS in their previous ten games overall, while the home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in this series. Carolina has lost nine of its last ten games dating back to Week 8 of last season and has failed to cover the point spread in eight of its previous nine games as a road favorite (keep an eye on the line).

Since 2005, Arizona is 14-0 ATS (+11.57 ppg) off a road game in which no player had double-digit rushing attempts, winning every game straight-up despite being an underdog in each of the last seven. Since 1996, the Cardinals are 12-0 ATS (+9.12 ppg) at home versus non-divisional foes following a loss as underdogs in which they rushed for at least 45 yards less than their season-to-date average.

Finally, Arizona applies to a very good 26-7 ATS system of mine that invests on certain home teams in games priced between +3 and -3. This situation is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 circumstances and 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Take the Cardinals and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (485) Pittsburgh Steelers at (486) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers 6.5 (-108)

3% Take Pittsburgh (#485)

Count me in as a 49ers believer. I bet San Fran Over 8 wins prior to the season and cashed winning bets ON San Fran as they started the season 2-0 with impressive wins by two TD’s or more on the road at Tampa Bay and Cincinnati over the past two weeks. That was then; this is now.

San Fran stayed East last week, practicing and ‘team bonding’ in Youngstown, Ohio prior to their blowout win over the Bengals. Now they return home to friends and family – distractions – in a ‘fat and happy’ spot – off their 2-0 start. The Niners have enjoyed precious little homefield edge in the worst ‘new’ stadium in football out in Santa Clara – their last pointspread cover as a home favorite came in October, 2014 in Jim Harbaugh’s last year on the job! This team is an overvalued commodity this week, plain and simple.

The 0-2 Steelers have already lost Big Ben for the season. But the fact that they just traded a #1 draft pick for CB Minkah Fitzpatrick is a clear message to this locker room – we’re still thinking about making the playoffs THIS YEAR. Mason Rudolph has been in their system and he’s shown plenty of guts and guile –I still remember him leading Oklahoma State to the outright upset win at Oklahoma in his second career start, as a freshman. And it’s surely worth noting that Mike Tomlin’s team hasn’t lost a single road game by more than a TD since 2016 – Pittsburgh hangs tough, consistently, even when Roethlisberger has been hurt. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take the Steelers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Sep 22, 2019
Bengals vs. Bills

1* on Bengals/Bills UNDER 44.5

The Key: The Bills had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, and they are at it again this year. They are giving up just 15.0 PPG and 296.5 YPG and 4.7 YPP thus far in beating both the Jets and Giants on the road. They like to run the football, control time of possession and play to their strength, which is their defense. The Bengals actually have plenty of talent on defense, and Andy Dalton and the offense just can’t be trusted to score points, especially without their best player in AJ Green. That’s why I like the UNDER in this game Sunday. The Bengals are 16-3 UNDER in their last 19 road games after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Bengals last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games overall. Take the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, September 22, 2019

NFL (487) LOS ANGELES RAMS VS (488) CLEVELAND BROWNS

Take: (487) LOS ANGELES RAMS

Reason: Your free play on Sunday, September 22, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the LA Rams and the Cleveland Browns. Your free play is on the RAMS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

The last time the Broncos and Packers faced each other was back in November of 2015 as the Broncos took a 29-10 decision in Colorado in a game that held Under the total.

I expect this meeting here in 2019 to also hold Under the total, as the Vic Fangio calling card of defense has been front-and-center through 2 games into his head-coaching career. The Broncos played Under the posted total on the opening Monday of the year, a 24-16 setback at Oakland, and they followed last Sunday with a 16-14 last second loss to Chicago on their home field in Denver.

Green Bay likewise has played a pair of games with both ending up holding Under the total. The Packers opening Thursday night game at Chicago ended up 10-3, while their home opener last weekend versus the Vikings sure looked like an Over when Aaron Rodgers and the offense posted 21 first half points, but the game stalled offensively in a 21-16 final.

The Broncos have now played their last 10 games Under the total dating back to last season, and the Under is 14-2-1 overall since Week Two of LAST season!

The Packers are also on a pronounced Under run, as the Low is 9-3 for Green Bay since the middle of last season.

It is clear that Joe Flacco no longer can "outgun" anyone at this point in his career, so look for the Broncos to lean on their defense once again to try and contain the still explosive Aaron Rodgers and his mates in this Sunday meeting.

Play Denver and Green Bay Under for Week Three.

3* DENVER-GREEN BAY UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE CONNORS

I am not sure the oddsmakers could post a number high enough on the New York Jets today to make me interested in backing them, as this road meeting on a short work week sure looks like a blowout waiting to happen in Foxborough.



The Jets could only muster a field goal in their Monday night home loss to Cleveland, and they are now playing with their third-string quarterback after Trevor Siemian exited with a leg injury in the second quarter of the loss. Luke Falk didn't look terrible, but he will have to play this game on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots, and New England looks to be in playoff form already with their dissection of pathetic Miami last weekend.



New England has outscored their first two opponents, 76-3, as they have hammered Pittsburgh by 30, and just laid waste to the Dolphins by 43 points!



Last year the Pats went 7-2 against the spread when favored at home, as they are now 26-10-3 as the home chalk since the 2015 season.



New England has also won all 10 of the last 10 series meetings straight up against New York, and they have covered 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 in the series.



I know this is the NFL, and they saying is..."on any given Sunday...", but I am here to tell you that ain't the case on this particular Sunday at Gillette Stadium.



How about 56-3 Patriots?



Lay it!


4* NEW ENGLAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (487) Los Angeles Rams at (488) Cleveland Browns
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 22, 2019 8PM EDT
Play: Total Under 47.5 (-108)

BET SIZE = 1% of Bankroll

The Rams offense gets a lot of press, but this is also a very talented team defensively. Led by DT Aaron Donald, this Rams D held opponents to 19.9 points in its eight regular season road games last season. The Under was 6-2 in those games, including 4-1 versus non-division foes.

The Browns offense hasn't exactly started clicking yet. QB Baker Mayfield has missed quite a few throws & made several mistakes, and he figures to be harrassed a lot by this Rams front. This is not going to be a pleasant night for Mr. Mayfield.

The Browns defense should be classified as pretty good when this season is in the rear view mirror. But, facing the Jets third-string QB last week and giving up 43 points at home to the Titans in the opener doesn't exactly instill confidence. It should be noted that 9 of the 43 points were from a safety and a Pick 6 on one of Mayfield's 3 INTs. Being -3 in turnovers in the NFL often leads to ugly scoreboards.

Rams RB Todd Gurley just doesn't seem capable of carrying the load any more. And this Rams offense has proved to be much more potent at home. The Browns defense should be playing with plenty of motivation and energy given the fact this is the Browns first Sunday Night Football home game since losing 10-6 to the Steelers 11 years ago.

PLAY UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

#472 Vikings
#476 Cowboys
#480 Cardinals
#485 Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Round Robin
Harry Walker

#461/2 Den.Broncos/GB Packers Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (10.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since Oct 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 22 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where Matt Ryan threw at least 2 interceptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 26-42-1 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 10-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 and as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-1 OU (-4.88 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 18-0 ATS (+9.78 ppg) on the road and vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed fewer than 254 total yards in their last game and has less than 14 days rest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday’s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn’t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ‘dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle’s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers’ defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn’t score points at crucial times in last Sunday’s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ½ - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week’s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ½) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ½ to 45 ½
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ½ to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ½
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ½ as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Semifinals have home squads up 2-0

UNCASVILLE, Conn. (AP) Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams got the Connecticut Sun going in the third quarter and the team never looked back.

Jones scored 27 points and Williams added 25 to help the Sun rout the Los Angeles Sparks 94-68 on Thursday night and take a 2-0 lead in the WNBA semifinals.

''I think we brought a different type of energy. LA came out and hit us in our mouth,'' Williams said of the Sparks' early lead. ''You know we had to come out and withstand their runs, stay mentally strong. We know basketball is a game of runs. We went on our run and kept our foot on the gas.''

Game 3 of the best-of-five series is Sunday in Long Beach, California, as the Sparks' normal home in Los Angeles isn't available.

''Right now at this time of the year our home court at Staples is prioritized with the Kings and their preseason games. So that's how it is,'' said Nneka Oguwmike, who led the Sparks with 18 points.

The Sun led by one at the half before Williams helped blow the game open. She scored 13 of her points in the third quarter to the delight of her dad, Don, who was courtside wearing her No. 10 jersey. He was jumping up and down on every one of her baskets and waving a towel and a cardboard cutout of his daughter's head. After the final buzzer, he ran on the court and picked up his daughter in a bear hug.

''Having my dad there is crazy. It's an amazing feeling to look over there and see someone bringing more energy than me,'' Williams said. ''He's been here since I was born, obviously. ... It takes me to another level to be able to look over to him and him telling me to stop turning the ball over. ... Telling me free throws are free, don't miss no free throws. Having him here, I love it.''

Connecticut led 70-57 after three quarters and scored 10 of the first 12 points in the fourth to dash any hopes Los Angeles had of a comeback. Sparks coach Derek Fisher pulled his starters with 5:31 left and his team down 23 points.

Riquna Williams added 14 for the Sparks, who will have to win three straight to make the WNBA Finals for the third time in five years.

''We weren't able to sustain the fight and energy it takes to win these games on the road,'' Fisher said. ''Credit them for how hard they were able to play.''

Riquna Williams had a dismal Game 1, missing eight of her nine shots and scoring just two points in the nine-point loss. She got out to a quick start on Thursday, scoring seven points in the first five minutes. Los Angeles led 16-6 midway through the period when Connecticut called timeout. The Sun then scored nine straight to get within one before the Sparks closed the quarter with the final six points.

The Sun battled back and took their first lead of the game with 1:04 left in the half on a basket by Jones. Connecticut led 41-40 at the half. Jones had 15 points for Connecticut while Ogwumike made all six of her shots and had 12 for Los Angeles.

IRONWOMAN

Alyssa Thomas played the first 74 minutes of the series before finally subbing out for the first time with 5:31 left in the game and her team up comfortably. She finished with 12 points, 13 rebounds and four assists and helped hold Sparks star Candace Parker to just three points.

CHAIRWOMEN OF THE BOARDS

The 29 rebounds by Connecticut in the first half broke the WNBA playoff mark for a half. Four teams held the previous record of 28, most recently the 2017 Mystics. Connecticut finished the game with 46 to Los Angeles' 24.

''The rebounding is what stands out on the stat sheet tonight,'' Miller said. ''It carried us when we were struggling in the first half.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, September 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (25 - 11) at LOS ANGELES (23 - 14) - 9/22/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
LOS ANGELES is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season.
LOS ANGELES is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in August or September games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-5 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-5 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (27 - 8) at LAS VEGAS (22 - 14) - 9/22/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LAS VEGAS is 14-22 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
LAS VEGAS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
LAS VEGAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 6-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-3 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Sunday, September 22

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Las Vegas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Las Vegas's last 14 games
Las Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home
Las Vegas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Las Vegas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Washington
Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Mystics
Washington is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington's last 17 games
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Las Vegas
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Washington is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas

Los Angeles Sparks
Los Angeles is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Los Angeles is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Connecticut's last 7 games
Connecticut is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games on the road
Connecticut is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Connecticut is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901NY METS -902 CINCINNATI
NY METS are 21-8 SU (13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season in the current season.

903WASHINGTON -904 MIAMI
WASHINGTON is 20-6 SU (14 Units) in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

905SAN FRANCISCO -906 ATLANTA
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-3 SU (12.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

907PITTSBURGH -908 MILWAUKEE
PITTSBURGH is 18-33 SU (-21.6 Units) vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

909ST LOUIS -910 CHICAGO CUBS
ST LOUIS are 11-20 SU (-15.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

911COLORADO -912 LA DODGERS
COLORADO is 15-38 SU (-26.6 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

913ARIZONA -914 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 35-57 SU (-30.5 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

915TORONTO -916 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 42-24 SU (24.8 Units) in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

917SEATTLE -918 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 34-56 SU (-30.8 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

919CHI WHITE SOX -920 DETROIT
DETROIT is 2-19 SU (-18.8 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start in the current season.

921BOSTON -922 TAMPA BAY
BOSTON is 19-44 SU (-30 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

923KANSAS CITY -924 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 30-14 SU (14.6 Units) in home games as a favorite of -175 to -250 in the last 3 seasons.

925LA ANGELS -926 HOUSTON
LA ANGELS are 20-36 SU (-21.5 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better in the current season.

927TEXAS -928 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 38-14 SU (25.5 Units) vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

929PHILADELPHIA -930 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 60-34 SU (26.1 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, September 22


Seattle @ Baltimore

Game 917-918
September 22, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Gonzales) 14.845
Baltimore
(Means) 13.794
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-125
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+105); Under

Toronto @ NY Yankees

Game 915-916
September 22, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Thornton) 15.285
NY Yankees
(Severino) 17.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-310
10
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-310); Under

Boston @ Tampa Bay

Game 921-922
September 22, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Eovaldi) 14.117
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 16.501
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-170
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-170); Over

NY Mets @ Cincinnati

Game 901-902
September 22, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Stroman) 17.411
Cincinnati
(Bauer) 15.515
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-125); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 903-904
September 22, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Voth) 17.788
Miami
(Lopez) 14.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-200
9
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-200); Under

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit

Game 919-920
September 22, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Lopez) 14.906
Detroit
(Boyd) 12.252
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(-105); Over

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Game 905-906
September 22, 2019 @ 1:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Webb) 14.322
Atlanta
(Keuchel) 18.159
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-220
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-220); Over

Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee

Game 907-908
September 22, 2019 @ 2:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Williams) 10.884
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 17.739
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 7
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-280
9
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-280); Under

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Game 923-924
September 22, 2019 @ 2:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Lopez) 13.701
Minnesota
(Perez) 15.582
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-230
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-230); Over

LA Angels @ Houston

Game 925-926
September 22, 2019 @ 2:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Rodriguez) 14.642
Houston
(Verlander) 17.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A

St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

Game 909-910
September 22, 2019 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 16.398
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 17.852
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-150
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-150); N/A

Texas @ Oakland

Game 927-928
September 22, 2019 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Lynn) 14.344
Oakland
(Roark) 19.449
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 5
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-180
8
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-180); Under

Colorado @ LA Dodgers

Game 911-912
September 22, 2019 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Senzatela) 14.420
LA Dodgers
(Ryu) 16.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-360
9
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-360); Over

Arizona @ San Diego

Game 913-914
September 22, 2019 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Ray) 16.124
San Diego
(Richards) 12.329
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-120
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-120); Over

Philadelphia @ Cleveland

Game 929-930
September 22, 2019 @ 6:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Velasquez) 16.637
Cleveland
(Plutko) 15.252
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-145
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, September 22


National League
Cardinals (88-67) @ Cubs (82-73)
Mikolas is 1-1, 4.09 in his last four starts; he is 0-2, 2.70 in three starts vs Chicago this year. Team in his starts: 16-15
5-inning record: 8-17-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-31 Over/under: 9-16-6

Darvish is 2-1, 1.73 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 4.50 in three starts vs St Louis this year. Team in his starts: 13-17
5-inning record: 15-19-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-30 Over/under: last four under

St Louis won their last four games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4-1 last 14 games.

Cubs lost their last five games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 10-6-1 last 17 games.

Mets (80-74) @ Reds (73-82)
Stroman is 2-0, 0.68 in his last two starts; he is 1-0, 3.00 in one start vs Cincy. Team in his starts: 6-3
5-inning record: 4-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-9 Over/under: under 5-1 last six

Bauer is 1-0, 1.84 in his last two starts. Team in his starts: 3-6
5-inning record: 3-5-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-9 Over/under: 4-4-1

Mets are 9-4 in last 13 road games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-1 last seven games.

Cincy won six of last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1-1 last seven games.

Nationals (85-68) @ Marlins (53-101)
Voth is 1-1, 2.30 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 1-5
5-inning record: 2-3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-6 Over/under: 3-3

Lopez is 0-3, 7.11 in his last five starts; he is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts vs Washington this year. Team in his starts: 6-13
5-inning record: 7-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-19 Over/under: 8-11

Nationals won three of last four games; under is 3-2-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2-1 last eight games.

Miami lost 10 of last 12 games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-1 last four games.

Giants (74-81) @ Braves (96-60)
Webb is 0-2, 10.95 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 3-3
5-inning record: 3-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-6 Over/under: 4-2

Keuchel is 5-1, 2.25 in his last six starts; he is 0-1, 4.09 in two starts vs SF. Team in his starts: 10-7
5-inning record: 10-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-17 Over/under: under 5-1 last six

Giants lost their last three games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine games.

Atlanta won its last three games; they clinched NL East Friday- under is 4-2 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six home games.

Pirates (65-90) @ Brewers (85-70)
Williams is 0-1, 9.00 in his last three starts; he is 3-2, 2.63 in seven games (6 starts) vs Milwaukee. Team in his starts: 14-10
5-inning record: 7-12-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-24 Over/under: last nine over

Woodruff threw two scoreless innings in his first start since July; he is likely just an opener. Woodruff is 2-1, 5.40 in six games (4 starts) vs Pitt. Team in his starts: 17-4
5-inning record: 14-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-21 Over/under: 13-8

Pirates lost their last eight games; over is 13-4 in their last 17 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-4 last 11 games.

Milwaukee won 14 of last 16 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-1-2 last seven games.

Diamondbacks (80-75) @ Padres (69-86)
Ray is 2-1, 5.57 in his last five starts; he is 5-5, 3.97 in 14 starts vs San Diego. Team in his starts: 19-12
5-inning record: 14-12-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-31 Over/under: last four over

Richards allowed three runs in 3.2 IP (61 PT) in his first ‘19 start. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Arizona won its last three games; under is 8-5 in their last 13 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven games.

Padres lost nine of last ten games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight home games. San Diego fired its manager yesterday.

Rockies (67-88) @ Dodgers (99-56)
Senzatela is 2-0, 3.75 in his last two starts; he is 1-1, 7.36 in three starts vs LA this year. Team in his starts: 12-11
5-inning record: 9-11-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-23 Over/under: over 7-3 last ten

Ryu is 0-3, 7.27 in his last five starts; he is 0-1, 5.76 in four starts vs Colorado this year. Team in his starts: 18-9
5-inning record: 17-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-27 Over/under: 13-13-1

Rockies lost 19 of last 23 road games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.

LA won seven of last 11 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-4 last nine games.

American League
Blue Jays (63-92) @ New York (101-55)
Thornton is 1-0, 0.80 in his last two games; they may use an opener- he is 0-1, 6.28 in three starts vs NYY. Team in his starts: 9-19
5-inning record: 5-13-10 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-28 Over/under: over 7-2 last nine

Severino allowed two hits, no runs in four IP in his first ‘19 start; he is 4-3, 4.19 in 11 games (10 starts) vs Toronto. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Blue Jays won seven of last 11 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-4-1 last 12 games.

New York won nine of last 14 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-1-1 last 12 home games.

Mariners (66-89) @ Orioles (50-105)
Gonzales is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; he is 0-0, 10.57 in two starts vs Baltimore. Team in his starts: 17-15
5-inning record: 18-12-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-32 Over/under: under 6-2-1 last nine

Means is 0-2, 4.34 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 11-14
5-inning record: 13-11-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-25 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six

Mariners won six of their last seven games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3 last nine games.

Baltimore lost nine of last 12 home games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3-1 last 11 games.

White Sox (68-86) @ Tigers (45-109)
Lopez is 1-1, 5.68 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 5.71 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Team in his starts: 13-18
5-inning record: 13-15-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 13-31 Over/under: over 5-2 last seven

Boyd is 2-2, 7.33 in his last four starts; he is 1-1, 4.77 in two starts vs Detroit this year. Team in his starts: 10-20
5-inning record: 14-12-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-30 Over/under: last seven over

Chicago lost six of last ten games; over is 15-7 in their last 22 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-7 last 16 road games.

Tigers lost nine of last ten games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten games.

Red Sox (80-74) @ Rays (92-63)
Eovaldi is 0-0, 6,65 in 10 starts; he is 1-4, 5.64 in seven games (5 starts) vs Tampa Bay. Team in his starts: 6-4
5-inning record: 3-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 6-3-1

Yarbrough is 0-1, 5.40 in his last five starts; he is 2-0, 3.75 in two games vs Boston this year. Team in his starts: 7-5
5-inning record: 4-4-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-12 Over/under: over 3-1 last four

Red Sox are 7-5 in last 12 road games; under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-4 last 11 road games.

Tampa Bay won its last seven home games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-4 last nine games.

Royals (57-99) @ Twins (95-60)
Lopez is 2-1, 2.60 in his last three starts; he is 2-0, 3.15 in five games (2 starts) vs Minnesota. Team in his starts: 5-11
5-inning record: 4-11-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-16 Over/under: 9-6-1

Perez is 1-1, 5.17 in his last three starts; he is 0-0, 9.90 in two starts vs KC this year. Team in his starts: 16-11
5-inning record: 16-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-27 Over/under: 16-11

Royals lost 10 of last 14 games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-4 last 11 games.

Minnesota won six of last nine games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 11-6 last 17 games.

Angels (70-85) @ Astros (101-54)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Verlander is 4-1, 1.08 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 5.40 in two starts vs LAA this year. Team in his starts: 22-10
5-inning record: 19-12-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-32 Over/under: last four under

Angels lost nine of last 12 games; over is 3-0 in their last three games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.

Houston won six of its last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine games.

Rangers (74-81) @ A’s (94-61)
Lynn is 0-2, 3.96 in his last four starts; he is 1-1, 7.05 in three starts vs Oakland this year. Team in his starts: lost last eight
5-inning record: 14-13-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 12-30 Over/under: under 7-2 last nine

Roark is 3-0, 4.29 in his last six starts; he is 0-3, 2.25 in three starts vs Texas. Team in his starts: 5-3
5-inning record: 6-1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-8 Over/under: 3-5

Rangers lost their last seven games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-2 last five games.

Oakland won 10 of last 11 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Interleague
Phillies (79-74) @ Indians (91-64)
Velasquez is 2-0, 4.67 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 12-9
5-inning record: 10-8-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-21 Over/under: 7-12-2

Plutko is 1-0, 3.31 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 13-5
5-inning record: 9-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-18 Over/under: 7-10-1

Phillies won five of last seven road games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 8-3 last 11 games.

Cleveland won five of its last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-1 last five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpires
StL-Chi: Under is 7-1-2 in last ten Guccione games.
NY-Cin: Under is 3-0 in Livensparger games.
Wsh-Mia: Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Hernandez games.
Pitt-Mil: Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Diaz games.
SF-Atl: Under is 5-2 in last seven Woodring games.
Az-SD: Over is 5-3 in last eight Cederstrom games.
Colo-LA: Eight of last nine Lentz games went under.

Tor-NY: Underdogs won four of last six Cooper games.
Chi-Det: Under is 5-3 in last eight Eddings games.
Bos-TB: Seven of last nine Torres games went over.
Sea-Balt: Under is 8-2 in last ten May games.
KC-Minn: Four of last six Ortiz games went over.
LA-Hst: Under is 9-5-1 in last 15 Fairchild games.
Tex-A’s: Under is 8-3 in Mahrley games.

Phil-Clev: Six of last seven Bellino games went over.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5
Ariz 21-71……18-68……39
Atl 21-69…..25-71……46
Cubs 18-67……25-70…..43
Reds 24-67……27-73…..51
Colo 17-72……26-66……43
LA 20-67……25-73……45
Mia 13-66……20-70…..33
Milw 21-67…..25-71…..46
Mets 26-64……21-66…..47
Philly 17-66…..21-70……38
Pitt 25-71…..18-67……43
StL 17-68…..20-70……37
SD 19-68……21-68…..40
SF 10-71……15-66……25
Wash 22-69…..21-67……43

Orioles 20-71…….23-69..….43
Boston 20-69…….24-69……44
W Sox 16-71…….18-68…….34
Clev 20-69…..21-71……..41
Det 21-71……18-65……..39
Astros 26-70…..17-69……..43
KC 19-68…..24-72……..43
Angels 26-72……15-67…….41
Twins 28-71……18-68……46
NYY 21-66……27-75……48
A’s 17-66…..19-71…….36
Sea 19-71…..17-69…….36
TB 24-70…..22-70……46
Texas 17-73…..24-67…….41
Toronto 18-71…..19-71…….37

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 82-61 NL, favorites -$1,522 under 67-65-5
AL @ NL– 66-66, favorites -$2,100 over 71-58-8
Total: 148-127 NL, favorites -$3,622 Over 136-125-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings



Hastings - Race 1

Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)



Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 1:50P


(PLUS UP TO $2,750 THRIF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 3 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SWEET SIXTEEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPEEDY MISS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. HARLAN'S ANGEL: Today is a sprint, hor se is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ECO CHARGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



1

SWEET SIXTEEN

8/5


9/2




2

SPEEDY MISS

3/1


7/1




4

HARLAN'S ANGEL

9/5


7/1




5

ECO CHARGE

10/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

SPEEDY MISS

2


3/1

Front-runner

62


66


75.2


48.2


40.2




5

ECO CHARGE

5


10/1

Front-runner

65


64


66.0


52.2


46.7




4

HARLAN'S ANGEL

4


9/5

Alternator/Front-runner

65


61


81.0


50.2


41.7




1

SWEET SIXTEEN

1


8/5

Alternator/Stalker

69


65


71.0


61.8


59.3




6

PARIANNE

6


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

69


60


49.0


56.2


49.2




3

FOREST BLISS

3


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


54


46.0


41.0


31.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows



Prairie Meadows - Race 4

Win, Place (17% Takeout), Exacta, Quinella (20% Takeout) .50 Trifecta (23% Takeout), .50 Pick 3 (19% Takeout)



Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 2:18P


QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * OILFIRED UP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROCKETS RETURN: Quarter hors e has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JESS A LIL CASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface.



2

OILFIRED UP

1/1


4/1




1

ROCKETS RETURN

9/5


4/1




3

JESS A LIL CASH

4/1


5/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

ROCKETS RETURN

1


9/5

Average

70


67


5.8


0.0


0.0




2

OILFIRED UP

2


1/1

Slow

75


71


6.3


0.0


0.0




3

JESS A LIL CASH

3


4/1

Slow

73


64


7.1


0.0


0.0




4

JOHNEE B

4


8/1

Slow

70


38


7.0


0.0


0.0




5

KOOLER WAGON

5


12/1

Average

56


45


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Trial - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 96

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS THAT NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2019 HOBBS AMERICA DERBY. $7,500 SUPPLEMENT FEE MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. WEIGHT: 125 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 FYRE WALL 4/1




# 2 BREAKING NEW GROUND 9/5




# 7 TRES THROUGH FIRE 3/1




I think FYRE WALL is a very good choice. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 88. I think having Ramirez ride this gelding is a smart choice. Must be carefully examined based on the competitive speed rating posted in the last contest. BREAKING NEW GROUND - Recorded a strong Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. He has very strong class ratings, averaging 94, and has to be given a shot in this competition. TRES THROUGH FIRE - With a sound 86 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Has been consistently running well recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:12pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 55

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#9 POSH TOTTY (ML=6/1)
#6 EVILLICIOUS (ML=15/1)


POSH TOTTY - Ramgeet rode this horse for the initial time in the last race and comes right back in today's race. The September 8th contest at Mountaineer Park was at a class level of (60). Dropping to a lower class rank drastically, so she should be in a good position to win. This filly is in good form, having run a strong race on September 8th, finishing second. Has a good chance to break maiden moving over to the main track in this event. Earnings per start is something that I think can be an important selection factor. This horse is ranked numero uno in this bunch. EVILLICIOUS - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Montano. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least 5 class pts like this one did last time out. I believe she'll be competitive at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FLATTER ME SYDNEY (ML=8/5), #8 ARCTIC TRIUMPH (ML=5/1), #5 BLUE COLLAR BABY (ML=6/1),

FLATTER ME SYDNEY - This filly is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Difficult to play her on the top end. Once you've got at least ten races at the track and still have no victories, its tough to break through for a victory. ARCTIC TRIUMPH - Recent deteriorating speed ratings of 47/44/36 give a clue that this horse may be going off form. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. BLUE COLLAR BABY - 6/1 is too low of a value to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back outings. Hard to put any money on this mare on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. Could be tough for this racer to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #9 POSH TOTTY on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $14200 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 CHEETAHRA 2/1




# 3 SOUTH BEACH SASSY 5/2




# 2 EASY HI 4/1




I've got to go with CHEETAHRA. Could provide positive gains based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 56. Carnegie has her trained strongly to break speedily out of the gate. SOUTH BEACH SASSY - Strong shot today with second time Lasix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:16pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $49,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 NO FUNNY BIZ (ML=12/1)
#2 ALWAYS A SUSPECT (ML=8/1)
#9 CHEYTAC (ML=9/2)


NO FUNNY BIZ - This horse should be rumbling down the stretch. ALWAYS A SUSPECT - May have to bet on this fine animal in this event. He has been claimed in each of his last two starts. CHEYTAC - The rider/trainer twosome of Beschizza and Montano has a strong ROI together. Looking at the information on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this thoroughbred. Sub-par effort in the last race at Indiana Downs was due to the off-going (he ran fourth). Should do much better in this race without a sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REASON TO SOAR (ML=4/1), #5 DRIVEN BY HISTORY (ML=9/2), #10 ITALIAN CHARM (ML=5/1),

REASON TO SOAR - This steed ran a mediocre fig in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat today running that number. DRIVEN BY HISTORY - Finished third last time out. Would have to improve to be in the money today. Earned a pedestrian speed rating in the last race in a non-classified race race on Aug 23rd. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. ITALIAN CHARM - In the last affair this mount finished third. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time around. I'm always uncertain about a less than sharp equine that has added wraps in the last race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 NO FUNNY BIZ to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,9] with [1,2,9] with [1,2,3,4,9] with [1,2,3,4,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park



09/22/19, BEL, Race 6, 3.38 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $62,000.
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLDFOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Grand Slam (6-9) - Late Pick 5 (.50) Races (6-10), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Firenze Freedom
3-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Servis Jason
JTS


098.6660
2
Allure Fortune
9/2
Davis D
Englehart Jeremiah C.




098.3916
5
Playtone
4-1
Franco M
Weaver George
F


098.2627
3
Imincomunicado
6-1
Lezcano J
Ryan Derek S.
W


097.7832
4
Never Heard of Her
5-1
Rosario J
Contessa Gary C.
L


096.0300
6
Courted
6-1
Castellano J
Abreu Jorge R.




095.7727
1
Funnypointofview
8-1
Ortiz J L
Ryerson James T.




095.6036
8
Malibu Too
10-1
Saez L
Bush Thomas M.




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
21.40
1.16
50.77
33
65
[Dirt MdnMClm] Best Speed


2
12.50
1.35
33.33
6
18
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f


5
22.00
1.17
46.03
29
63
[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Higher Than Today


3
22.00
1.17
46.03
29
63
[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Higher Than Today


4
25.10
1.52
62.50
15
24
[Dirt MdnMClm] Third Start


6
12.50
1.35
33.33
6
18
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f


1
25.10
1.52
62.50
15
24
[Dirt MdnMClm] Third Start


8
12.50
1.35
33.33
6
18
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



09/22/19, MTH, Race 5, 3.04 ET
5F [Turf] 00.54.03 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
Claiming Price $12,500, For Each $1,000 To $10,500 1 lb. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Win, Place and Show - Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta - Daily Double (Races 5-6)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) - 20-Cent Jersey Shore 6 (Races 5-6-7-8-9-10)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
5
The Forty Factor
9/2
Tunon M
Breen Kelly J.
FW


097.8165
10
New York's Finest
5-1
Ferrer J C
Rice Linda
SE


096.9990
3
Anytime Anyplace
7/5
Ferrer J C
Navarro Jorge
T


096.5807
9
Joopster
6-1
Lopez P
Demasi Kathleen A.
JL


096.1243
2
Aktabantay (GB)
6-1
DeCarlo C P
Cibelli Jane




094.8604
1
Johnny U
6-1
Moreno A
Delgado Jose H.




094.1363
8
Dark Roast
5-1
Panaijo J
Cash Russell J.




092.9188
6
Sammy's Mineshaft
8-1
Garcia W A
Pimental John I.




091.4832
4
The Zip Zip Man
8-1
Kay W R
Nunn David




089.0067
7
Ominous Thomas
20-1
Castillo I
Persaud Randi
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


5
8.20
1.23
50.00
9
18
[All Surfaces] Carries Apprentice Weight


10
.40
1.01
42.86
6
14
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] *Race Entries Greater Than 9


9
9.80
1.14
50.00
18
36
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Best LeadPack


1
3.40
1.02
37.33
28
75
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Not Higher Than Today


6
4.80
1.20
50.00
6
12
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was OddsOn Favorite(not entry)


4
4.80
1.20
50.00
6
12
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was OddsOn Favorite(not entry)


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
5
The Forty Factor
9/2
Tunon M
Breen Kelly J.
FEW


095.9061
10
New York's Finest
5-1
Ferrer J C
Rice Linda
S


095.4518
3
Anytime Anyplace
7/5
Ferrer J C
Navarro Jorge
T


094.5393
9
Joopster
6-1
Lopez P
Demasi Kathleen A.
JL


094.1449
2
Aktabantay (GB)
6-1
DeCarlo C P
Cibelli Jane




094.0025
1
Johnny U
6-1
Moreno A
Delgado Jose H.




093.3861
8
Dark Roast
5-1
Panaijo J
Cash Russell J.




091.7911
6
Sammy's Mineshaft
8-1
Garcia W A
Pimental John I.




090.5494
4
The Zip Zip Man
8-1
Kay W R
Nunn David




088.4029
7
Ominous Thomas
20-1
Castillo I
Persaud Randi
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


5
8.20
1.23
50.00
9
18
[All Surfaces] Carries Apprentice Weight


10
1.80
1.18
40.00
2
5
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Greater Than 9


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.