Sunday 9-29-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 3:

Road Teams: 31-16-1 ATS
Home Teams: 16-31-1 ATS

Favorites: 20-27-1 ATS
Underdogs: 27-20-1 ATS

Home Faves: 10-21-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 6-10 ATS

Road Faves: 10-6 ATS
Road Dogs: 21-10-1 ATS

Over/Under: 22-26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 30-16-1
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 23-23-1
Against the Spread 15-31-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 21-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Giants (+5.5, ML +210) at Buccaneers, 32-31
Saints (+5, ML +200) at Seahawks, 33-27
Lions (+4, ML +180) at Eagles, 27-24
Texans (+3, ML +145) at Chargers, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-22.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-6
Vikings (-9) vs. Raiders, 34-14
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos, 27-16
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Ravens, 33-28
Rams (-4.5) at Browns, 20-13

Stacking Dimes

-- The New York Giants (+5.5, ML +210) rallied for the 32-31 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in the first-career start for rookie QB Daniel Jones, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He replaced two-time Super Bowl winner QB Eli Manning, and his selection was viewed as a bit of a reach by some. However, if Sunday's game is any indication, the G-Men appear to have made the right decision in selecting him, as well as making the change in Week 3. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding four runs, 28 yards and two more touchdowns, including the game-winner late in the fourth quarter.

The Legend of Danny Dimes grows after a tremendous preseason. He went into the huddle at one point of the second quarter and said, "Let's f***ing score!", which was surprising to his teammates, as he reportedly had never been overheard swearing in the past. Elias Sports Bureau reports that since the 1970 merger only Jones and former Detroit Lions QB Eric Hipple are the only players to pass for two TDs and run for two TDs in his first-career start.

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns were much better in their second home game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams than they were in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, but the results were the same - a loss and a non-cover. The entire secondary for the Browns was inactive, but they nearly tied the game up in the closing seconds. The Browns, who were blown out 43-13 in Week 1 by the Titans, moved inside the 5-yard line of the Rams in the final ticks. However, QB Baker Mayfield scrambled to the right and was picked off on the final play, falling 20-13 in a surprisingly low-scoring game. The public helped the books take a huge bath as a result of the favorite Rams covering the 4.5 points.

Total Recall

-- The over went 9-6 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, quite a bit different than Week 2 when the under connected in 13 of 16 outings.

The highest total on the board was the Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs (52) ended up covering fairly handily with 61 total points. That was the only total in the 50's. The second-highest total was the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers (49) game, which went just under with 47 points. QB Philip Rivers was picked off in the red zone to end the threat of overtime, and the threat of an over ticket. The two games with totals at 48, the aforementioned Giants-Bucs game, and Atlanta Falcons-Indianapolis Colts games each saw 'over' results.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Jacksonville Jaguars (38) game, which easily hits the under with a total of 27 points. It started out looking like it might be high-scoring, as QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes. However, a scoreless second quarter, and a total of three points in the third put the nail in the coffin for those holding 'over' tickets.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 through the first two primetime games of Week 3, with the low Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears-Washington Redskins (41) still pending. The 'over' is 1-8 (11.1%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of the weekend occurred in that Giants-Bucs battle, as New York RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the second quarter. He was on crutches and in a walking boot on the sidelines in the second half. The injury didn't keep him from hobbling over and celebrating with his teammates following the win.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) entered Sunday's game questionable against the Falcons due to a quad injury, and he aggravated the ailment.

-- Patriots WR Julian Edelman (chest) left with a chest injury suffered against the Jets. He had X-rays which came back negative.

-- Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) exited early due to an ankle injury for the team which was already missing starter RB Damien Williams (knee).

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns travel to meet the Ravens in a battle between the top two teams in the AFC North. The Browns have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five road games, although they're 6-16-1 ATS in the past 23 inside the division. They did a good job shutting down the running game of the Rams in Week 2, but facing QB Lamar Jackson is a whole other animal. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-4 ATS in the past four inside the division. While Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, the road team is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five, and 6-2 in the previous eight battles in Charm City.

-- The Patriots have dominated the Bills in the past, but it's a new day in Buffalo. We'll see if it's the same old results. Buffalo has fired out to a 3-0 SU record, and they're 2-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of their first three. New England is 20-8 ATS in the past 28 games on the road, while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. They've really made Western New York their home, going 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 trips to Buffalo. The road team is also 20-7-1 ATS in the past 28 in this series.

-- In another divisional matchup, Jones and the Giants will look to carry over their momentum from Tampa back to MetLife Stadium against the 'Skins. Washington has covered just once in the past six games inside the NFC East, although that one cover happened in Week 1 in Philadelphia. They're 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on the road, too. The G-Men have posted a 5-2-1 ATS mark in the past eight against the NFC, including their outright win against the Bucs. If you're a fan of totals, the 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 battles in New Jersey, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

-- The Seahawks and Cardinals hook up in the desert on Sunday afternoon. QB Kyler Murray and the Cards are searching for their first win, going 0-2-1 SU. However, they are 2-1 ATS in the first three, including a pair of 'over' results at home. This series has been all about the road team, as the visitors are 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine in this series. Seattle has an impressive 4-1-1 ATS mark in the past six trips to the desert, too. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Glendale, too.

-- The Vikings and Bears get together in the Windy City, and Chicago looks to maintain its dominance against the number. The Bears are 13-3 ATS in the past 16 at home against the Vikings, and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under has hit in four of the past five at Soldier Field with 11 unders in the past 15 meetings overall.

-- On Monday Night Football the winless Bengals and winless Steelers square off at Heinz Field. The Bengals have posted a 2-0 ATS mark in their two games so far on the road, and they have covered their past six away games dating back to last season. Cincinnati is also 7-2 ATS in the past nine divisional matchups. Pittsburgh has dominated, going 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 home games against the Bengals, but it's a new day with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) already done and QB Mason Rudolph under center.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Close Calls - Week 3

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.

Green Bay Packers (-7) 27, Denver Broncos 16 (41½): Denver looked poised to go into halftime tied 10-10 in Green Bay with the ball back just ahead of the two-minute-warning. Joe Flacco was sacked however, and his fumble was recovered at the 5-yard-line. The Packers scored two plays later to take a 17-10 edge into the break, even with the closing spread that was a half-point higher earlier in the week. The second half also started with a Denver fumble and Green Bay scored quickly on the short field to suddenly lead 24-10. Denver would eventually answer in the third quarter, but the extra-point attempt hit the upright as Bronco backers could not catch a break in a game that was even statistically. Later in the third a 59-yard drive for the Broncos ended in an interception that was granted on replay review. Green Bay eventually added a field goal halfway through the fourth to seal win as well as getting the total just ‘over’.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) 33, Baltimore Ravens 28 (52): Results wound up varying on the big AFC showdown between 2-0 squads as a line that was as high as -7 eventually landed at -4 with numbers in-between certainly possibilities depending on the timing and location. The Chiefs dominated the first half with a 23-6 edge and the margin didn’t change in the third quarter with both teams adding touchdowns. Baltimore made a run in the fourth however adding 10 points in succession to climb within a single score, down by eight. The Chiefs were able to add a field goal with about four minutes remaining, but Baltimore was able to add a late touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to get within five. The two-point conversion try loomed large for many and Baltimore was not able to convert.

Buffalo Bills (-6) 21, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (43½): The Bills dominated the turnover-prone Bengals early in this game getting to 14-0 unconventionally with eight points on an early touchdown and on short field drives Cincinnati stayed in the game by holding the Bills to two second quarter field goals (plus another missed field goal try). The Bengals finally got on the board with about six minutes to go in the third quarter after swapping interceptions, suddenly only down seven despite a big disparity in production. The Bengals forced a punt and turned in their best drive of the day going 82 yards in 11 plays to tie the game early in the fourth quarter. Another defensive stop and a field goal put the Bengals in the lead for an improbable comeback, but Buffalo was able to respond with a Frank Gore touchdown inside of the two-minute warning. Cincinnati was a threat for the outright win on its last drive, reaching the Buffalo 28 in the final seconds before an Andy Dalton interception.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) 27, Atlanta Falcons 24 (48): The Colts were in charge up 20-3 at halftime but Atlanta scored two touchdowns consecutively around only one Colts possession to climb within three early in the fourth quarter, with the second score on a 16-play drive that took nearly 10 minutes of game clock. The Colts converted several drives to get back on the board halfway through the fourth with a 10-point edge. Atlanta would add a late touchdown to get within three, a touchdown that cleared the ‘over’ in the final five minutes, but the Colts wouldn’t surrender the ball back and held on for the narrow win.

New England Patriots (-20½) 30, New York Jets 14 (43): Those brave enough to lay three touchdowns with the defending Super Bowl champions were rewarded with a dominant showing that led to a 30-0 lead late in the third quarter. A muffed punt would put the Jets on the board late in the third quarter and then in the fourth quarter with rookie Jarrett Stidham in the game, a pick-six put the Jets back within the spread, hitting the ‘over’ in the process as well. The Jets defense posted 14 points while the offense had only 105 yards but the 16-point margin left the underdog with a win despite the mismatch.

Dallas Cowboys (-22½) 31, Miami Dolphins 6 (46½): With a 10-0 early lead a Dallas rout seemed to be underway, but Miami would manage a pair of field goals and turned in a few defensive stops as a respectable 10-6 deficit was the halftime score. Dallas scored a touchdown coming out of halftime to regain control of the game and added another seven late in the third to lead by 18. One more touchdown would put Dallas ahead of the historic spread, but Dallas had to settle for a field goal attempt which they missed. Miami was able to cross midfield on a late drive but failed on 4th down and with fewer than four minutes remaining Dallas added the critical touchdown for those on the heavy favorite. Miami reached the Dallas 40-yard-line looking to play spoiler but only got a yard on a 4th-and-2 rush.

New York Giants (+5) 32, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 (48): The Buccaneers took a commanding 28-10 lead with 16 points in the final eight minutes of the second quarter but in settling for three field goals on those four scores they kept the door open for the Giants. On the first play from scrimmage in the second half the Giants connected for 75 yards on the first touchdown pass for Daniel Jones, who earlier in the game ran in for a score in his first NFL start. The New York defense was ignited and turned in three straight punts and an interception with New York able to climb within three with another touchdown drive. A Jones fumble with about 10-minutes to go seemed to halt the momentum but Tampa Bay only got another field goal to lead by six, where the spread was commonly sitting before falling to -5. After swapping punts, the Giants had the ball back with just over three minutes to go and quickly reached the red zone. The drive stalled from there facing 4th-and-5 from the 7-yard-line with Jones eventually calling his own number for the tying score, with the extra-point putting New York in position for win #1. Tampa Bay went 59 yards in the final minute but kicker Matt Gay, who had made four field goals but also missed two extra-points in an eventful day, missed the game-winner from only 34 yards.

Houston Texans (+3) 27, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (49): The Chargers led 17-7 at halftime but Houston scored a pair of touchdowns around a Philip Rivers fumble to take a 21-17 lead. The Texans extended that advantage to 27-17 in the fourth quarter before a Chargers field goal brought the margin back to seven. Overtime looked like a possibility as Rivers led the Chargers down to the Houston 24-yard-line in the final minute before a penalty and a pair of incomplete passes ended the threat.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 (44½): The 49ers did their best not to go 3-0 with turnovers on four of their first five possessions but Pittsburgh managed only two field goals behind Mason Rudolph despite the extra chance and good field position. San Francisco was able to get on the board with a field goal before halftime to trail only 6-3 in what ordinarily would be much worse circumstances given that many mistakes. Fortunes changed after halftime and San Francisco scored a short field touchdown after a Rudolph interception. Both teams added touchdowns to keep the 49ers up by four on a spread that was commonly -6½ after Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out. A mostly stagnant Pittsburgh offense was able to go 81 yards in just a minute early in the fourth with a 32-yard pass interference call a big factor. Next a promising San Francisco response ended in another fumble in the red zone as Pittsburgh appeared poised to get its first win. The Steelers would fumble just three plays into the next drive on a 1st down rush and needing only 24 yards the 49ers went back in front, though they didn’t get past the spread despite an edge of nearly 200 yards in the game. The final touchdown put the scoring at 44, past early week totals around 43 though by Sunday most books had the price at 44 or higher.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) 20, Cleveland Browns 13 (48½): The underdog Browns led 6-3 at halftime Sunday night with the Rams missing a field goal and having a fumble in the first half. Both teams scored on their opening possessions of the second half and Cleveland was granted a golden opportunity to pull further in front with a Jared Goff interception near midfield. Cleveland managed two yards and punted and then the Rams scored a touchdown to take the lead a few minutes into the fourth quarter. That touchdown put Los Angeles up by four to match the closing spread though the Rams were commonly -3 before a late rise. The infamous 4th-and-9 draw from Freddie Kitchens followed as the Browns came up empty on the next possession and the Rams were able to add three more to lead by seven. On 3rd-and-3 with fewer than three minutes to go Goff inexplicably threw deep into coverage for an interception to give the Browns an unexpected late opportunity. Baker Mayfield led an uneven drive down to the Los Angeles 4-yard-line, aided greatly by a roughing the passer call and an earlier illegal contact call that wiped out a sack. Three incomplete passes followed before a game-ending interception in the endzone on 4th down.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

251CAROLINA -252 HOUSTON
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.

253CLEVELAND -254 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.

255WASHINGTON -256 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

257LA CHARGERS -258 MIAMI
LA CHARGERS are 39-19 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

259OAKLAND -260 INDIANAPOLIS
OAKLAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. in the last 3 seasons.

261KANSAS CITY -262 DETROIT
KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

263NEW ENGLAND -264 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

265TENNESSEE -266 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

267TAMPA BAY -268 LA RAMS
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

269SEATTLE -270 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

271MINNESOTA -272 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

273JACKSONVILLE -274 DENVER
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

275DALLAS -276 NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

277CINCINNATI -278 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 62-30 ATS (29 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, September 29

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
128.711
Baltimore
138.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
46
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-7); Over

Carolina @ Houston

Game 251-252
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.830
Houston
134.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Over

LA Chargers @ Miami

Game 257-258
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
132.363
Miami
111.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 20 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 16
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-16); Over

New England @ Buffalo

Game 263-264
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.381
Buffalo
130.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

Tennessee @ Atlanta

Game 265-266
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.605
Atlanta
132.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over

Oakland @ Indianapolis

Game 259-260
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
123.563
Indianapolis
137.469
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-6 1/2); Over

Washington @ NY Giants

Game 255-256
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.430
NY Giants
126.444
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Under

Kansas City @ Detroit

Game 261-262
September 29, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.888
Detroit
132.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6); Over

Tampa Bay @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
129.864
LA Rams
136.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 7
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 10
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+10); Over

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 269-270
September 29, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.143
Arizona
122.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 271-272
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.226
Chicago
137.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Denver

Game 273-274
September 29, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
132.530
Denver
124.881
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 7 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
38
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3); Over

Dallas @ New Orleans

Game 275-276
September 29, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.992
New Orleans
134.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) at MIAMI (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 126-93 ATS (+23.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 58-85 ATS (-35.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-201 ATS (+42.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-147 ATS (+42.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-147 ATS (+33.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-71 ATS (+25.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-85 ATS (+32.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-87 ATS (+32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) vs. LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-240 ATS (-68.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-189 ATS (-66.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (0 - 2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at DENVER (0 - 3) - 9/29/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2019, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Sunday, September 29

Houston Texans
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tennessee is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games
Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 22 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Miami's last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 15 games when playing LA Chargers
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Chargers's last 15 games when playing Miami
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 21 games at home
NY Giants is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants's last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games at home
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 15 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 6-9-3 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 18 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 12 games
Denver is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
Jacksonville is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Denver
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Chicago is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
New Orleans is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 4 odds: Can Bills measure up to Patriots in battle of AFC East unbeatens?
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen has helped Buffalo to a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, but the first real test of the season awaits in Week 4. The Bills opened as 7-point home underdogs against the Patriots, who are also 3-0 (2-1 ATS).

The NFL regular season’s first month wraps up with some intriguing Week 4 matchups, including a battle of unbeatens in the AFC East. Covers checks in on that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)

It’s no surprise at all that defending Super Bowl champion New England – despite the Antonio Brown drama – sits unbeaten through three weeks. The Patriots (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) had no trouble with the New York Jets on Sunday, building a 30-0 lead and coasting 30-14 as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

Buffalo being unbeaten is perhaps a bit of a surprise, since it opened with two straight road games – both at MetLife Stadium, where they beat the Jets and Giants. In Week 3, the Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) blew all of a 14-0 halftime lead to Cincinnati, but got a late TD to win 21-17 as 5.5-point home faves.

“Buffalo is 3-0 but has done it against a super easy schedule,” Murray said. “We will find out a lot about Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense in this game. Their defense is legit.”

There weren’t enough takers on either side Sunday night to move the needle, as the line remained 7 flat.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3)

Dallas has had little trouble through three weeks, on the field or for bettors, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Cowboys rolled over hapless Miami 31-6 Sunday to cover as hefty 22-point home favorites.

New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in Week 2 and likely won’t have his services for a few more weeks. However, the Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Seattle as 5-point pups and exited with a 33-27 outright victory behind Teddy Bridgewater.

Brees’ absence certainly takes the luster off this Sunday night matchup, but Dallas backers were interested from the jump.

“We took money immediately on Dallas and moved to -3 (-120),” Murray said of a price adjustment on the Cowboys, noting he expects more Pokes money to come. “The books will need the Saints big in this game.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Green Bay is also out of the gate 3-0 SU and has come through for bettors all three weeks, as well. The Packers took care of Denver on Sunday, going off as 7-point home favorites and claiming a 27-16 victory.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has struggled in the early going, dropping two in a row while failing to cash in any of its three games. On Sunday, the Eagles (1-2 SU) were 4-point home faves against Detroit, trailed 20-10 at halftime and couldn’t quite get there in a 27-24 loss.

Philly also isn’t in a good spot for a short turnaround, playing Green Bay under the Thursday night lights.

“The Eagles are very banged up right now,” Murray said. “The Packers are 3-0 but weren’t overly impressive on offense today. Denver turnovers gave them some short fields to work with.”

This game also saw no early movement Sunday night.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Minnesota hopes it can bottle up some of its home success and take it on the road in Week 4. The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) rolled in in Weeks 1 and 3 at home, then fell in between at Green Bay. On Sunday, the Vikes discarded visiting Oakland 34-14 laying 8.5 points.

Chicago still has some Week 3 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Washington. The Bears (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have yet to look like the 12-4 SU and ATS team of last year. After an extremely lackluster Week 1 home loss to Green Bay, the Bears barely escaped Denver with a 16-14 win on a last-second 53-yard field goal, failing to cover as 3-point favorites.

“It’s a short week for the Bears, and they will come home to host the Vikings in a critical division game,” Murray said. “Can Kirk Cousins avoid turning the ball over? If he does, I think the Vikings win on the road.”

While the Bears opened -2.5, the price at that number was -120. As of Sunday night, there were no moves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
September 23, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 23rd

If you were able to catch last week's piece you'll know that the angle of backing those winless ATS teams out on the road in Week 3 turned out to be profitable once again.

Seven different teams fit that role for Week 3, and with Chicago's outcome still pending tonight, the other six (Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, NYG, NYJ) ended up going 5-1 ATS. Only the hapless Dolphins failed to cover the number on Sunday, while three of those teams (Carolina, New Orleans, NYG) managed to pull off the outright victory as well.

Going against the Rams was a result that most oddsmakers across the country wanted to see cash, but LA was having none of it. It's hard to say if LA went out and got that game on SNF vs the Browns, or if Cleveland just remains too undisciplined for their own good. The Browns over-thought some playcalling decisions as well, and yet, they still had a 1st and goal to tie the game with under a minute left. Fading the money earners just didn't work out on Sunday night.

This week we are staying in the NFL, and while something like discussing the fact that division games are on a 4-10 O/U run so far in 2019 – keep that in mind for the Cleveland/Baltimore, New England/Buffalo, Washington/NYG, Seattle/Arizona, Minnesota/Chicago, and Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games next week – there are actually two more specific spots involving two of the seven 3-0 SU teams in this league that need to come to light. With Detroit being 2-0-1 SU there are actually eight remaining unbeaten squads, but it's two that entered 2019 as legit Super Bowl contenders that present solid betting angles. So let's get right to them.

Who's Hot

Games featuring an AFC team vs. NFC team with the home side as underdogs are a perfect 5-0 to the 'Under' in 2019

Non-conference games tend to lack the hatred something like rivalry or even conference tilts bring has there can be lingering memories from recent playoffs etc that add extra elements to those games. But unless you are one of the few teams that have met New England in the Super Bowl in recent years, AFC/NFC games tend to lack the animosity that can be associated with 'under' plays. There isn't the same type of familiarity in terms of understanding what the opposition prefers to run, and coaching staffs prefer to focus on more immediate concerns like divisional rivals because the easiest path to a playoff berth is by winning one's division.

So while you will hear thoughts about non-conference games being ones that can fly 'over' the number more often given that lack of hatred, that's not particularly been the case this year (6-8 O/U overall this year) in general. But more specifically, when the home team is catching points in these non-conference tilts, you only want to look low. Week 4 brings us only one specific spot where this run will be tested, as it does involve Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered, undefeated, Kansas City Chiefs.

KC is laying about a TD in Detroit on Sunday, and the total has already seen the vig get a few more cents added to the 'over' side of things. Both teams do own a 2-1 O/U record on the year as well, and with KC averaging 33.7 points per game and Detroit averaging 22.3 points per game offensively, just having both sides hit those averages would see an 'over' ticket cash.

However, defensively, neither side gives up more then 21.3 points per game on average, and given the specific home/road splits here, KC's defense comes in at 18 ppg allowed on the road, with Detroit clocking in at 10 ppg at home. Extremely small sample size for those numbers to be sure, but if you zoom out and look at the scenario on the whole – home underdog against a non-conference team – you can see why 'unders' in these games do tend to make a lot of sense.

First off, as a home underdog, you know you are up against it in terms of talent, skill, etc and there are certain generic strategies in that role that can/should be employed. Shortening the game by controlling time of possession and moving the sticks with the running game is one of those, and it doesn't matter who the Chiefs opponent is or where they are playing, limiting KC's time with the ball is something all 29 other teams are looking to do against KC. Detroit may not have the best running game in the league, but Stafford's dink-and-dunk approach throwing the ball plays into that as well.

Furthermore, offensively execution tends to come a bit tougher in hostile territory for these road favorites. Whether it be crowd noise, general discomfort, or the home dog defense 'rising up' to play over their heads against a better squad, KC's offense might not work as smoothly as some may think. KC might have scored 61 points in their last two games combined, but you take out the 2nd quarter, and the Chiefs just have 10 total points in all of those six other frames. They've been blanked in four of those quarters so it's not like they can't be held down as it is.

So chances are we see this total likely go higher before it goes down, but with that hook sitting there on a key number like 53 and plus-money on the 'under' to boot, it may not hurt to get at least a partial unit down on this 'under' in Week 4 and go from there.

Who's Not

Backing home favorites in the first five weeks of the season, prior to playing a road game on Thursday Night Football
(2-9 ATS and SU last three years)

Thursday Night football games continue to generally be slopfests in terms of quality of play as the short week is just tough to overcome for all involved. Maybe one day that will change and we can get rid of them all together (highly doubtful) and have weekly MNF double-headers or something instead, but until then, I'll gladly try to use an angle like this to cash.

Simply put, when teams are laying chalk at home the Sunday prior, and then have a quick turnaround WITH travel for TNF, it's those Sunday games that tend to get glossed over. Not only are home favorites in that role 2-9 against the number, but ALL NINE ATS losses have been outright losers as well. That's really quite shocking when you step back and think about it.

It's not like they are loaded with losses by two or three-point home favorites either. Last year we saw Minnesota lose to Buffalo (27-6) laying 16.5 points prior to a road TNF game, and even the great New England Patriots fell victim to this trend back in 2017 when they lost at home to Carolina (33-30) as nine-point home chalk.

And while it may feel like after last week's piece, I am picking on LA Rams fans/backers, I can assure you that I'm not. But this week, it's the undefeated Los Angeles Rams who find themselves in this dreaded role, currently laying -10.5 at home to a visiting Tampa team prior to the Rams travelling to Seattle for a divisional game on TNF in Week 5.

Considering Tampa's likely to be quite salty this week after blowing that big lead at home to the New York Giants with a rookie QB starting, it's not hard to figure the Bucs will be out to be at their best this Sunday. Offensively, they are more then capable of keeping up with LA should the game be a back-and-forth affair, and Tampa themselves know how hard it is being in the role that LA finds themselves in, as the Bucs got burned by being in that spot in Week 1 as small home chalk to the 49ers.

That Bucks loss in Week 1 started the 0-3 ATS and SU run this trend has been on just this year alone with Philly losing at home yesterday as the latest victim. So my apologies go out to Rams supporters this week for the second week in a row. You proved me wrong last week, and hopefully as the year goes on the Rams will find themselves in a favorable 'play on' role for one of these pieces, but it's taking the points or nothing with Tampa Bay for me this weekend.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 29

CAROLINA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers on 3-8 spread skid since late 2018, though off of win at Arizona. Also “under” 5-3 last eight since late 2018. Rivera was 12-4 as dog entering last season but just 5-5 in role since. Texans 9-3-1 last 13 vs. spread reg season since mid 2018. Also “under” 8-3 last 11 at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Panthers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 12-8 last 20 on board, also 10-4 last 14 as dog and covered both last year vs. Ravens. Balt 5-3-1 vs. line reg season since late 2018, though only 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Browns and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered 5 of last 7 on road, while G-Men 1-7-1 vs. spread last nine at MetLife. NY “over” 7-3 last ten since mid 2018, Skins "over" first three in 2019.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Outside of L.A. City limits, Chargers 11-3-2 vs. line reg season since moving from San Diego in 2017 (0-1 TY however). Bolts also “under” 10-5 last 15 since early 2018. Dolphins no covers last six since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chargers and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


OAKLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 2-13-1 last 16 as road dog, also “under” 5-1-1 last seven since late 2018. Colts 7-4-1 vs. points reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends.


KANSAS CITY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 12-1 vs. spread in first five weeks of campaigns since 2017, also 7-0 vs. line away in first five weeks of seasons since 2017. Chiefs 9-2 vs. line last 11 on road and “over” 7-2 last 9 reg season. Lions however are “under” 8-2 last ten since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to "over," , based on team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pats have owned this series for 15 years, they’re 28-3 SU the last 31 games, with Brady not involved in two of the Bills’ wins. Pats have also covered 4 of last 5 and Belichick on 13-6 spread run since early 2018. Belichick “under” 10-2 last 12 in reg season play. Bills have covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018. “Under” 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on series and Belichick trends.


TENNESSEE at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs only 6-13 vs. line since start of 2018, a bit better 4-5 at home. Falcs “under” 6-4 last ten since late 2018. Titans 3-7 last ten on board since mid 2018, “under” 6-3 last nine away from Nissan.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals’ trends.


TAMPA BAY at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs 4-6-4 as road dog since 2017. TB also “under” 7-2 last 0 since late 2018. Rams have now covered last five in reg season play and 7 of last 8 overall, also “over” 7-3-1 last 11 at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SEATTLE at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 4-0-1 vs. line last five meetings. Hawks also “over” last four away. Carroll 4-7-1 last 11 as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Vikes just 1-4 vs. spread last five away, 2-5 as dog since last season. Zimmer also “under” 15-6-1 last 21 since late 2017, Though "over" on Monday at Redskins, Bears "under" 9-1 last ten since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Bears, based on “totals’ and team trends.


JACKSONVILLE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-6-1 as home chalk since 2017, and “under” 11-0-1 since mid 2018. Jags “under” 5-1 last six since late 2018, 13-7 “under” since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jags, based on “totals” and team trends.


DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-1-1 vs. spread last ten in reg season, 5-2 last seven vs. spread away. Saints no covers last five at Superdome and “under” 6-4 reg season since mid-2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Josh Inglis


HOLD ON TIGHT

The Arizona Cardinals have been getting crushed by opposing tight ends through three games. In total, the Cardinals have allowed 20 catches for 318 yards and four scores to the position. The player most responsible for this is safety D.J. Swearinger. The man who was unwanted in Washington has a PFF grade of 45.9 and has allowed over a 70 percent completion rate.

Up next in the plus matchup is Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches over his last two games. With quarterback Russel Wilson proving he can sling it with the best — 706 yards passing in his past two outings — Dissly has a great chance to go Over any of his props this week.

His prop markets will open soon and we like the Overs on his reception total at less than five, receiving yards at less than 56 and will certainly be playing his anytime score prop, which will be plus money.


PRIME TIME 6-POINT TEASER

Last week we hit our three-team, 6-point, prime time teaser (+160) with three Unders. This week’s prime time games may be forcing us in the other direction.

PHI/GBY Over 39: The Philadelphia Eagles own the sixth-worst defense in points per play but have a Top-10 scoring offense which works well for this teased total. Their defense is averaging three touchdowns against some poor offenses — Washington, Atlanta and Detroit. We see Wentz and Rodgers putting up some points on Thursday.

DAL/NO Over 41: Combined, the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints have eclipsed this total in four of their six games. Dallas is a Top-3 offense in yards per game while scoring three red-zone touchdowns a game this year.

The Saints showed they aren’t ready to roll over and die with Teddy Bridgewater under center and are still a threat to put up points on the turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, especially against a Dallas team who has faced the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants.

CIN/PIT Over 37.5: This one scares me the most, but ultimately this is a great matchup for points as the Cincinnati Bengals No. 3 passing offense squares off against the Pittsburgh’s second-worst passing defense. With both teams in the bottom-eight in yards per rush attempt, look for the Bengals and Steelers to settle Monday’s match through the air. Maybe even look for the special team or defensive score prop (+225)


CAPITAL NONE

We need to put this one out there while the stink of the Washington Redskins is still fresh in our olfactory senses. The hot mess that is the Redskins has been bad, but especially bad in the first quarter this year.

In their last 12 games, the team with taxation but no representation has scored a total of ...one touchdown in the opening frame. If you watched Monday Night Football, then you know that a TD isn’t happening anytime soon with that quarterback play, a short week and a divisional game on deck.

Washington Under 0.5 first-quarter touchdowns is too costly at -175 while its first-quarter team total of 3.5 is tempting, but not at -152. If you can find better odds for those bets or don’t mind the juice, take them.

We’re going to grab the first-quarter Under 7.5 (+105) as we hope the Redskins try to hide their passing game and Daniel Jones struggles early after last week’s roller coaster.


KICKING IT IN L.A.

Tampa Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has left some things to be desired when it comes to execution. The former first-overall pick sits 25th in QBR, below Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.

The Bucs have scored a touchdown on just 27 percent of their red-zone trips this year — only better than the Miami Dolphins. This is made even worse by the fact that Tampa Bay is averaging the 10th most red-zone scoring attempts per game. We won’t say no to you if you want to play the Buccaneers’ first score FG (+137).

It makes sense that Jameis and his offense are tied for the lead the league in field goals attempted per game at three. The Los Angeles Rams are also averaging three three-point tries a game which makes the Over 3.5 field goals (-120) a great play, in our opinion. With two struggling offenses and a pair of defenses that are allowing the most and third-most field goal attempts a game, this is our spot for this week’s kicking prop.

SAY IT AIN’T SO, SONY

We’re going back to fading Sony Michel after cashing on his Under 83.5 rushing yards last week. Sometimes you have to stick with what’s working, or not working in Sony’s case.

The running back has still forced one missed tackle on 45 rushing attempts with 1.67 yards after contact per attempt and blue skies aren’t on the forecast for last year’s 900-plus yard runner. Michel saw just 22 percent of the offensive snaps last week in a nothing game against the Jets.

With Rex Burkhead getting more action (74 percent) and facing a Buffalo Bills rushing defense that is allowing just 88 rushing yards a game, we’re going back-to-back weeks on the Michel’s Under and will take it as low as 55 yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 4 odds: If you're counting on the Cowboys to cover, do it now
Jason Logan

You have America's Team taking an undefeated record to New Orleans to face a backup QB on Sunday Night Football. Books are bracing for Cowboys money.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

Week 4 marks the quarter turn of the schedule, which means teams suffering from slow starts to 2019 are beginning to panic and those teams exceeding expectations are attempting to ride that early-season momentum. How the betting markets react to those results will shape the line movement heading into kickoff, so let’s try to stay ahead of the curve.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I’ll be the first to tell you, Cowboys fans can be a bit much. And I am one. Dallas is 3-0 heading to the Big Easy on Sunday night, with a belly full of fudgy facts and figures after eating up the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.

America’s Team opened around a field-goal favorite for this primetime game, and early play from the wiseguys has slimmed that spread as low as -2.5 at some select books. If you can get Dallas under a field goal, do it now because Dallas fans will be doubling down come Sunday evening.

Books have already seen a large amount of public play on the Cowboys and predict the most popular team in football to draw lopsided money versus a Saints team playing without star QB Drew Brees. Even though backup Teddy Bridgewater was solid in a win at Seattle, this spread will likely creep to Dallas -3.5 by the time the late-afternoon games wrap.

If you’re among the masses with money to get down on Dallas, get it in now rather than later.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6)

If you fear that you missed the boat on the early line movement for this non-conference clash, you’ll likely get a second shot later in the week. Kansas City opened as a 6-point road favorite in the Motor City and early play on the Chiefs pumped this to a full touchdown before sharp buyback on the Lions returned the spread to the opener.

I can see why getting the home side at a full seven points is appealing to the pros. Kansas City is playing its third road game in four weeks and is ripe for a letdown after a physical win over the Ravens at home in Week 3. Detroit is undefeated at 2-0-1 SU and would be a perfect 3-0 if not for a huge fourth-quarter collapse against Arizona in Week 1.

The public, however, will be blinded by the Chiefs’ undefeated mark and as we get closer to Sunday, money will jump on K.C. – especially seeing it under a touchdown. If you like the Lions, wait it out. You’ll likely see the +6.5 and +7 again before the whistle blows.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 46 CAROLINA AT HOUSTON

This total is already starting to tick up at some sportsbooks, with the early money putting its faith in Carolina backup Kyle Allen. The second-year QB was fantastic in place of the injured Cam Newton in Week 3, so much so that it appears the franchise is in no rush to return its star player. And after the way Newton performed in the first two weeks, can you blame the Panthers?

Carolina’s offense is set up for Allen to succeed. He has a savvy TE in Greg Olsen to act as safety blanket, a dynamic RB in Christian McCaffery to keep opposing pass rushers guessing and serve as a vital checkdown, and two speedsters in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to stretch the field and open up space underneath. Allen may have to use those deep-strike targets more to keep pace in Week 4.

The Texans can put up points in a hurry. Take out that ho-hum effort versus Jacksonville in Week 2, and Houston is putting up almost 400 yards per game. This is one of the best receiving corps in the league (something I’ve said every week) and Deshaun Watson is really finding him form, with 11.6 yards per completion, only one interception, and sitting fifth in Total QBR.

Given the early opinion on this total and with this game being played on the fast turf track inside NRG Stadium (Interesting/Meaningless trend: Carolina 22-5 Over/Under in last 27 games on turf), the Over would be best bet at 46 now – if you’re into that sort of thing.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43.5 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

In rare air for a primetime matchup, those leaning towards the Over for Monday Night Football’s AFC North war between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh may want to wait it out. Most weeks, a night game means blind backing for the Over from the public, but this rivalry isn’t selling the points like it should.

The Steelers are without QB Ben Roethlisberger and looking to backup Mason Rudolph to keep them competitive. The reviews are still out on the former Oklahoma State gunslinger, but he did show flashes of big-play potential on both TD strikes last Sunday and Pittsburgh put up 20 points despite having the football for less than 24 minutes in Week 3.

The Steelers defense is the real issue. Pittsburgh has allowed 28.3 points per game through the first three weeks and has been torched for almost 303 passing yards an outing (second most in the NFL). The Steelers have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards in those contests and take on the Bengals' up-tempo attack that thrives on the big plays (14 passing plays of 20-plus).

Cincinnati got off to a slow start at Buffalo in Week 3 but snapped out of it just in time to score 17 second-half points and cover the +6 in the loss. There’s a lot of potential for this Bengals offense – something that can’t be said for the defense. Between missed tackles and giving up 6.4 yards per play, Cincy sits 27th in points allowed at 27.7 per game. With two piss-poor defenses, the prospect for points, and lots of them, is great.

This one goes against the traditional MNF grain (as well as the Under trend in this divisional rivalry: 2-5 O/U last seven meetings), but wait to see if this continues to drop (fell from as high as 44 to as low as 43 at some spots) and be the Over later in the Week 4 finale.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 4 odds: Life is a highway for the road-weary Chiefs
Jason Logan

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they visit the Lions in Detroit this Sunday.

In the daily battle against the big bad bookies, sports bettors have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal – some more effective than others.

One of the most popular methods of getting a leg up on the sportsbooks is situational handicapping: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 4 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3, 49)

This letdown spot started setting the table back on April 25. That was Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft, on which the Giants selected Duke QB Daniel Jones with the sixth-overall pick. It was a baffling pick that was instantly criticized and continued to be so until Jones showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason.

New York finally pulled the plug on Eli Manning’s time as the starter versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, turning the keys to the franchise over to the 22-year-old rookie. And Jones stepped up, passing for two touchdowns and running in two more with RB Saquon Barkley on the sideline with an ankle sprain. The Giants got the win thanks to a botched last-second field goal attempt from Tampa Bay, and the G-Men’s front office breathed a collective sigh of relief. They were right and everybody else was wrong. Suck it.

That thrilling win (and “I told you so!” moment) sets up New York for a letdown spot in Week 4, hosting the rival Redskins as a 3-point favorite. As mentioned, Jones doesn’t have Barkley to draw the eye of the defense and was sacked five times in the squeaker at Tampa last Sunday. The Redskins' rotten defense has been roughed up, but they’ve also been on the field an average of 33:08 minutes per game (fourth most) thanks to turnovers from the offense. If the stop unit can force some turnovers of its own versus a rookie QB, the Giants could fall for this longgggggggg-running letdown.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7, 45)

Even the pros get caught fantasizing. Given their circumstances entering the season (you know? Their franchise QB abruptly packing it in), a 2-1 start to the 2019 schedule has to have the Colts feeling good about their chances in the AFC South. And hell, if not for Adam Vinatieri finally showing cracks in his once-unflappable leg, Indianapolis could be 3-0 in the post-Andrew Luck era.

The Colts have great shot at jumping to 3-1 with the road-rashed Raiders coming to town in Week 4. Oakland (which is on a crazy 49-day gap between home games) lost at Minnesota in an early 1 p.m. ET starts in Week 3 and travels to London, England for Week 5 (vs. Chicago) after this 1 p.m. ET game in Indy Sunday. Shouldn’t be too much trouble for the red-hot Colts, right?

Indianapolis could get caught looking past the tarnished Silver and Black and ahead to Week 5 when they travel to dreaded Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. There are also key injuries on both sides of the ball for the Colts heading into this Sunday’s game, with top WR T.Y. Hilton dealing with a nagging quadriceps injury, safety Malik Hooker out of action (knee), and LB Darius Leonard in concussion protocol.


SCHEDULE SPOT: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6.5, 54)

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they take on the "undefeated" Lions in Detroit this Sunday. Kansas City opened 2019 with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Oakland before a grueling home opener against Baltimore in Week 3.

Not only does a road heavy schedule weigh on players and staff, but this is the Chiefs. The AFC’s No. 1 seed from a season ago was able to catch plenty of teams off guard at the start of 2018 campaign (which led to a perfect 7-0 ATS mark through the first seven games), but now have a huge target on its back as teams get up to play the conference’s elite.

Kansas City’s offense also limps into Week 4 with WR Tyreek Hill out (collarbone), LT Eric Fisher sidelined (hernia), and running backs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams listed as day-to-day with their respective ailments. The rigors of the road could compound those issues come Sunday, especially with K.C. giving a near touchdown as the visitor.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Josh Inglis


THE PROPIEST OF PROP BETS

Let’s kick things off with some action for tonight’s game. We are already on the Over 39 as part of our prime time 6-point teaser and we are going to add a prop bet that might change the way you cheer for the game. Who's up for rooting for a pass interference call in the endzone?!

The Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers each scored a one-yard touchdown last week as well as giving one up to their opponents. Combined with the Eagles being a top-5 team in red zone scoring attempts per game and the Packers having the third-best rating for scoring TDs on their red zone trips (88 percent) we will be recommending the shortest TD Under 1.5 yards (-125).

Carson Wentz has even shown his ability to dive in from the one as the coaching staff dialed up his number twice in a row two weeks ago on Sunday night. Wentz's opponent, Aaron Rodgers, will more than likely pick on an injured-riddled and inexperienced Philly secondary, increasing our chance of a pass interference call in the endzone.

The prop markets are also good places to solidify our confidence in this bet as no running back has a rushing total Over 50.5, with the Eagles longest rush of the year at just 19 yards and the Packers longest at 15. Aaron Rodgers anytime TD is just +450 where QBs markets usually sit in the +1000 neighborhood. Finally, there should be plenty of scoring as the Over 4.5 total TDs is -175.


BIG BANG RIDLEY

After amassing 12 catches on 16 targets for 169 yards and two scores over weeks 1 and 2, Atlanta Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley was invisible in Week 3 with just one catch on one target. Lucky for us, a big bounce-back is possible Sunday at home versus the Tennessee Titans. Even the receiver's coach said he will get the pass-catcher more involved after last week.

Ridley, the Falcon’s 2018 first-round draft pick, has also performed better at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as his 62 yards per game at home trump his road splits of 44 yards a game. The Titans will cover Ridley with outside corners Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson who have combined to allow 21 receptions on 28 targets for a 75 percent completion rate. Look for some of Austin Hooper’s Week 3 usage (6/66/2) to go to the squeaky wheel, Ridley.

We are grabbing the Over on the Ridley's yardage total of 60.5.


BREAKING BAD

So far this season, we are 3-0 prop betting against the Miami Dolphins. Each week is getting harder to find value. If you do find it, you have to make the plays early in the week as what is -110 on Thursday is closer to -170 on Sunday.

The Dolphins are a 16-point home dog entering their Sunday matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Josh Rosen really doesn’t change much in terms of evaluating the team from a betting standpoint as the Dolphins are next-level bad. The Chargers are 6th in the league allowing 6.2 points in the first half while the Dolphins have put together 16 points through three first halves.

We are backing the Dolphins first-half team total Under 6.5 at -111 as the odds are better than Under 0.5 first-half touchdowns which sits at -125

If you’re really looking for a score, the Chargers to win to nil in the first half is +300 or if you think the Dolphins are on the verge of something special offensively, like three points, grab the Over 0.5 first-half field goals for -125


JACOBS' LADDER

Last week, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman ran for 88 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, which was more than twice his total rushing yardage from the previous two weeks. A lot of this had to do with the absence of Indy's All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who is still in concussion protocol and very doubtful for Sunday’s game against Josh Jacobs and the Oakland Raiders.

The potential loss in the middle is bad news for the Colts who sit in 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Conversely, this is great news for Jacobs who is 13th in yards per rush at 5.1 yards, right between Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. The problem is the Raiders, who are 6.5-point road dogs, may fall behind early but with Jacobs’ floor of 10-12 carries he still has the ability to rip off long gains as his long run of 51 yards this year is the eighth-best mark of the year. Hit the Over on Josh Jacobs 77.5 rushing yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three NFL Picks 9/29

100* Texans -4.5
100* Rams -9
100* Over 48 Seahawks/Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.75 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a road dog of more than three points coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.77 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 after a game in which less than 22 percent of their first downs were from third down conversions.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 OU (-11.40 ppg) since Oct 05, 2017 when Jameis Winston threw at least two touchdown passes last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Vikings are 0-10-1 OU (-9.23 ppg) since Nov 16, 2014 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 13-0 OU (12.35 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 coming off a road win where they gained less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (+8.64 ppg) on turf fields off a home win in which they had more first downs than points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 4
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Browns at Ravens (-6 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC North race was expected to include three teams fighting it out for the top spot, but the Steelers are basically done at 0-3 and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. The Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had elevated expectations with several key additions in the offseason, but Cleveland has stumbled with home losses to the Titans and Rams. Cleveland’s offense has produced 13 points in each of its two losses, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was limited to 195 yards in last Sunday’s defeat to Los Angeles.

The Ravens (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are by no means running away with the division, but Baltimore can put itself in a great position with a victory on Sunday. After blowing out the hapless Dolphins in Week 1, the Ravens failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a home win over the Cardinals to improve to 2-0. However, Baltimore lost to Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium for the second consecutive season as the Chiefs held off the Ravens, 33-28 as 4 ½-point favorites. Mark Ingram rushed for three touchdowns, but Baltimore yielded over 500 yards of offense to Kansas City as the Ravens suffered their first underdog loss with Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback in four tries.

Last season, these division rivals played to a pair of games decided by a total of five points. Cleveland held off Baltimore as three-point home underdogs, 12-9 in overtime, while the Ravens edged the Browns in the season finale, 26-24 as seven-point favorites. Baltimore has won six of the past seven matchups with Cleveland since 2015, as the Ravens had covered five straight meetings before Cleveland cashed twice in 2018.

Best Bet: Ravens 21, Browns 17

Patriots (-7, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

It’s no surprise that New England (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has started with an unblemished mark through three weeks. The Patriots cruised past the Steelers and Dolphins in the first two weeks, while yielded a total of three points. New England jumped out to a commanding 30-0 lead last Sunday against the banged-up Jets, but New York picked up the backdoor cover by scoring a special teams and defensive touchdown. The Pats failed to cash as hefty 20 ½-point favorites, but New England limited New York to a shade over 100 yards of offense to grab their 18th consecutive victory at Gillette Stadium.

The Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) were expected to improve this season, but not many believed this team would be undefeated towards the end of September. Buffalo has been carried by its defense so far as the Bills swept the New York squads at Met Life Stadium the first two weeks of the season, while edging the Bengals, 21-17 in Week 3. Buffalo failed to cover for the first time this season as 5 ½-point favorites, but veteran Frank Gore found the end zone in the final two minutes of regulation to lift the Bills to a 3-0 start, as the team rushed for 175 yards against Cincinnati.

This series has been all Patriots over the years as New England has won 28 of the last 31 meetings. That is not a misprint, as two of those wins by the Bills came with Patriots’ star quarterback Tom Brady suspended in one game and playing a handful of series in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. New England is riding a seven-game winning streak at New Era Field as five of those victories by the Patriots have come by 10 points or more in this stretch.

Best Bet: Patriots 27, Bills 17

Vikings at Bears (-1 ½, 38) – 4:25 PM EST

Following Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night, the winner of Sunday’s contest at Soldier Field will be tied for first place with the Packers atop the NFC North. The Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a five-point defeat at Green Bay in Week 2 to pound the Raiders last Sunday, 34-14 to easily cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Minnesota jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back as the Vikings rushed for 211 yards, including 110 yards and a touchdown from Dalvin Cook.

The Bears (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are back at home following a pair of road victories over the Broncos and Redskins, who enter Week 4 with a combined record of 0-6. Following the close-shave win at Denver in Week 2, Chicago cruised past Washington last Monday night, 31-15 to cash as five-point favorites for its first cover of the season. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky finally put together a solid performance with three touchdown passes, while the mighty Bears’ defense created five takeaways as Chicago has allowed 39 points in three games.

Chicago swept Minnesota last season for the first time since 2011 as the Bears have covered four consecutive meetings with the Vikings. The Bears held off the Vikings, 25-20 at Soldier Field to barely hit the OVER of 44 thanks to 28 points by the two teams in the fourth quarter. Chicago dominated Minnesota in the season finale, 24-10 as six-point road underdogs, marking the first road win for the Bears in Minneapolis since 2011.

Best Bet: Vikings 19, Bears 16

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 47 ½ - Panthers at Texans

The Panthers’ offense exploded in last Sunday’s 38-20 victory against the Cardinals as Kyle Allen will make his second consecutive start at quarterback. Carolina visits Houston as the Texans rallied past the Chargers last Sunday by outscoring Los Angeles, 20-3 in the second half. Houston has hit the UNDER in two straight games, but the Texans are 6-1 to the OVER since 2016 off a road victory. Carolina is 4-1 to the OVER since 2017 also off an away win as this total has jumped from 46 to 47 ½.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Titans looked like world beaters in a Week 1 rout of the Browns, but Tennessee has gone backwards the last two weeks by losing to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The Falcons have surprisingly lost seven consecutive home games to AFC opponents, while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 opportunities as a favorite. Tennessee has not been impressive offensively in the last two weeks, but the Titans have fared well in the underdog role since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach by going 7-4 ATS, while they are 3 ½-point ‘dogs on Sunday.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Seahawks opened as four-point road favorites at Arizona when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released the numbers last Sunday. Seattle has moved up to 5 ½-point favorites as the Seahawks have gone 5-0-1 in the past six visits to Glendale. The Cardinals covered last season in both meetings against the Seahawks, as Arizona owns a 2-0 ATS record in the underdog role in 2019.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Only two teams have not covered a game this season as they meet in Miami on Sunday. The Chargers own an 0-2-1 ATS mark, while the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS and are listed as a double-digit underdog for the third straight week. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its past six regular season games with its last cover coming in the “Miami Miracle” against New England last December in a 34-33 win as a 9 ½-point underdog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night.

“We had a great night with the Eagles winning,” CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. “It was one of our better games of the year.”

The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.

“It’s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,” DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. “We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn’t a wise guy.

The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they’ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.

As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week.

“We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,” DiTomasso said.

People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it’s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.

The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won’t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.

Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).

“The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,” DiTomasso said.

The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it’s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.

“The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,” DiTomasso said. “We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.”

Caesars’ Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.

The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.

“The public has turned quickly on the Browns,” DiTomasso said. “That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.”

The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number.

As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 4
By Joe Williams

It's time for Week 4 in the National Football League, and we're hitting the quarter pole already. Where has the time gone? We're getting a great idea of who the contenders and pretenders are, especially in terms of effectiveness on offense and defense.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half

Week 3 10-6 9-7 8-7-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 20-28 19-28-1 26-21-1

The public scored big in Week 3, sinking books with a 10-6 over record. It was a nice rebound for the masses after watching Joey Public get killed in Week 2, with the under hitting in 13 of 16 outings. Through 48 games, the under sits at 28-20 (41%).

Savvy bettors playing the halves noticed a scoring spike in the first 30 minutes as the 'over' went 9-7 in the first-half last weekend. The high side went 8-7-1 in the second-half and that's been a solid lean overall (26-21-1) for 'over' bettors chasing points this season.

Division Bell

We had just two divisional battles in Week 3, and the total results split. The New York Jets-New England Patriots (43) game likely should've gone under, but with 21 seconds left in the third quarter the Jets came up with a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. Then, they had a pick-six of 61 yards with 6:23 to go in the game to flip the result. The Jets scored zero points, but the Patriots backup on offense coughed up 14 points, prompting QB Tom Brady to be re-inserted into the game after backup Jarrett Stidham relieved him.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 3
Tennessee at Jacksonville Under (38) Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 7
N.Y. Jets at New England Over (43) New England 30, N.Y. Jets 14

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 48 ½
Seattle at Arizona: 48 to 46
Dallas at New Orleans: 45 to 47
Carolina at Houston: 46 to 47 ½
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 45
Cleveland at Baltimore: 46 ½ to 45
New England at Buffalo: 44 to 42 ½
Oakland at Indianapolis: 44 to 45 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at Chicago: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Under 82%
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Over 81%
Dallas at New Orleans: Over 76%
Carolina at Houston: Over 70%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 69%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (64 percent) in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup on Monday Night Football, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Tennessee-Atlanta (66 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 4

WEEK 3 TOTAL RESULTS
Year Over/Under

Divisional matchups 1-1

NFC vs. NFC 5-0
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 3-3

Week 4 is kicked off with a high-scoring Thursday night battle, as the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup went 'over'. Through 11 primetime battles the 'under' is now 8-3, but the 'over' has connected in the last two games played at night.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 4:

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns and Ravens square off in the first divisional game for both sides. The Browns entered the season with a lot of hype due to massive additions on offense. However, the new-look offense has struggled to gain any momentum through the early going. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game through three contests, although they did manage 23 points in their only road game, a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football back in Week 2. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has passed for more touchdowns in his short career on the road, and he's been sacked less too. In eight road starts under Mayfield, the Browns are averaging 24.3 PPG.

The Ravens are having no such problems on offense, averaging 36.7 points per game to rank No. 1 in the NFL. They're also No. 1 in total yards per game (511.7) and No. 1 in rushing yards (216.7) per contest. They're also No. 7 in passing yards per outing, posting 295.0 yards per game through the air. Defensively, they have only been so-so, coughing up 350.7 total yards per game, giving up 290.3 passing yards to check in 26th. Most of that is skewed, however, as teams have passed frequently to get back into the game. Baltimore has shut down the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game to check in second in the NFL. The under has hit in four of the past five in this series, and six of the past eight in Charm City.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins offense has been a train wreck, posting 336.3 total yards per game to rank 23rd in the NFL, and they're putting up a dismal 48.0 yards per game on the ground to check in 30th. That's not good. They're still managed to post 21.0 PPG, good for 21st in the NFL. Defensively, the 'Skins have been a wreck, as well, ranking 25th with 402.7 yards per game, and they're yielding 31.3 PPG, second-worst in the NFL. Make a note that Washington is the only team to see the over cash in all three of its games.

The Giants gave rookie QB Daniel Jones his first NFL start and it went well. Granted, if the Bucs had a kicker, the G-Men and their rookie go home with a loss in Tampa last week. However, the kicker shanked it, and 'Danny Dimes' is being hailed as the second coming for Big Blue. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while running for 28 yards and a pair of scores. It will be interesting to see what the rookie does in his first home start, and his first game against a divisional opponent. However, while Jones was the good news from last week's road win, the bad news is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain. The Giants defense is ranked 31st in total yards (460.3) and that combined with Washington's unit is one of the main reasons this total has been pushed up.

Minnesota at Chicago: The trends all point to the 'under' for both the Vikings and the Bears. the under has cashed in 23 of the past 30 divisional battles for the Vikings, while hitting in four of the past five against winning teams and four straight on the road. The Bears have hit the under is four straight divisional battles, while cashing in four straight at home. They're also 6-2 in the past eight at home agaisnt teams with a winning road mark.

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed a little consistency, hooking up with WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) for three touchdowns in the second quarter alone in Week 2 at Washington. However, Gabriel was lost to a concussion, and remains in the protocol. They're still 29th in total yards (275.0), 29th in passing yards (178.7) and 26th in the league in points scored (16.7). Defensively the Bears have locked it down, giving up just 13.0 PPG to rank second in the league, and they're just fifth in rushing yards allowed (68.7). Will the unders continue?

Seattle at Arizona: The 'over' has connected in five straight divisional games for the Seahawks, and they're fairly consistent overall on offense .They're ninth in total yards (390.3), while going 10th in passing yards (280.0) and points scored (25.3). The over has hit in each of the past two for the Seahawks, including a 28-26 win at Pittsburgh in their only road trip of the season so far.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had some growing pains, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't the up-tempo, high-scoring juggernaut that was expected. In fact, they're 26th in the NFL with 328.0 total yards per game, while middle of the road in passing (243.7), ranking 15th. The 'over' is 2-0 in their two home games so far, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 32.5 PPG. The last three meetings from the desert between this pair have watched the 'under' go 3-0.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 4, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 54 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

L.A. Chargers at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Chargers look to add to the woes of the Dolphins. Miami was a little more competitive at Dallas last week, if you count 31-6 as more competitive. That's how bad things have been for the Dolphins. They have managed a total of 16 points, hitting the under in their past two. The Chargers have also struggled a bit on offense, averaging 20.0 PPG while giving up just 21.3 PPG. You can expect another lopsided score, as they're more than a two-touchdown favorite in South Florida. Second-half bettors or Live Betting enthusiasts might want to jump in on the final 30 minutes of this matchup with the Chargers averaging 3.3 PPG in the final two quarters of the season while Miami is at 0 PPG.

New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The defending champs hit the road for Western New York, a place they have fared very well over the years. However, they're facing a new-look Bills team which enters the game with an identical 3-0 record and huge expectations these days. These aren't the same Bills which have been pushed around by the Pats in the past.

The Patriots might have their most powerful offense in years, though, and that's a scary thing. They're averaging 35.3 PPG through three outings, including a 43-0 win on the road in Week 2 in their only road outing, albeit against the sorry Dolphins. New England is averaging 311.3 passing yards to rank second, and they're second in the NFL behind the Ravens in scoring. While all of that is good for the over, the defense has been on fire. They're No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (199.0), passing yards (162.3), rushing yards (36.7) and points allowed (5.7). The under has cashed in seven of the past nine inside the division for the Pats, while going 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.

Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The unbeaten Lions (2-0-1 SU) have hit the over in two of their three games, both on the road, while grinding out a 13-10 win and under in their only previous home game against the Chargers in Week 2. The offense has been on fire for the Chiefs, as expected, going for 28 or more points in all three games, including 34.0 PPG in their two road contests so far. These Lions have been surprisingly effective on defense, but this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. As far as trends go, Kansas City has watched the 'over' go 8-2 in their last 10 road matchups. However, Detroit is on a 6-0 'under' run its last six at Ford Field.

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET): The Bucs could easily be going into this game at 2-1, but a missed kick at the buzzer meant a tough loss. They were able to score 31 points, though, the most of the season and their first 'over'. The Rams struggled in Cleveland on SNF despite the fact the Browns were missing their entire secondary. The Bucs have yielded 25.7 PPG through their three games, and that makes the 'over' rather attractive in this one. The Rams have racked up 25.7 PPG on offense, while the defense has allowed just 11.0 PPG in the past two after a 30-27 win in Week 1.

Under the Lights

Dallas at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys and Saints promised to be a high-flying affair. QB Drew Brees went down, and the offense was expected to struggle. However, the Saints adjusted quickly in Seattle last week, posting a 33-27 win with QB Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for Dallas against NFC foes, but the under is 5-1 in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 against NFC foes for the Saints, and 10-3-1 in the past 14 at home against teams with a winning home mark.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Denver 37 ½
Best Under: Seattle-Arizona 48
Best First-Half Over: L.A. Chargers-Miami 22 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 30 ½ Jacksonville at Denver
Over 43 Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams
Over 40 Dallas at New Orleans

CD's Best Bets
Unfortunately for Chris David, he posted his second straight 1-2 week in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 5-4 on the season.

For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:

Tennessee at Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago
Cleveland at Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Finals Cheat Sheet

The 2019 WNBA Finals will begin on Sunday Sept. 29 as the Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics meet in a best-of-five series.

Oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Mystics as minus-300 favorites (Bet $100 to win $33) while the Sun have a return of plus-260 (Bet $100 to win $260).

Finals Schedule

Game 1 – Connecticut at Washington (Sunday, Sept. 29, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Game 2 – Connecticut at Washington (Tuesday, Oct. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 3 – Washington at Connecticut (Sunday, Oct. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Game 4 – Washington at Connecticut (Tuesday, Oct. 8, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Game 5 – Connecticut at Washington (Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:00 p.m. ET)

(1) Washington vs. (2) Connecticut

2019 Regular Season Meetings

May 25 – Connecticut (-5.5) 84 vs. Washington 69 (Under 166 ½)
June 11 – Connecticut (-3) 83 vs. Washington 75 (Under 166 ½)
June 29 – Washington (-7) 102 vs. Connecticut 59 (Under 161 ½)

Playoff Form

-- Connecticut won and covered all three matchups against Los Angeles in the semifinals as it pulled off the three-game sweep.

-- The Sun won by an average of 19 points per game and the defense only allowed 66.3 PPG, which helped the ‘under’ cash in every decision.

-- Washington advanced past Las Vegas in four games of the semifinals. Despite posting a 3-1 record in that series, the Mystics went 1-3 against the spread for bettors.

-- The Mystics averaged 94.3 PPG in their wins and were held to 75 in the lone loss. The ‘over’ went 3-1.

ATS Numbers

-- The home team won and covered all three encounters between the pair this season, with the results coming by an average of 33 PPG.

-- Connecticut owns a 17-19-1 ATS mark this season.

-- At home, Connecticut has gone 17-2 straight up and 12-7 ATS.

-- On the road, the Sun struggled to a 5-12-1 ATS mark for bettors despite a 9-9 record.

-- The point-spread hasn’t matter when the Sun have been listed as an underdog this season. Connecticut has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in that role.

-- Including the playoffs, Washington has produced a 21-16-1 ATS mark this season.

-- At home, the Mystics have gone 16-3 SU and 12-16-1 ATS.

-- The club has produced a 13-6 SU and 9-10 ATS mark on the road.

-- Washington was listed as an underdog four times this season and it went 2-2 both SU and ATS in that role.

-- Coincidentally, the two setbacks came to Connecticut (see above).

-- Game 2, 4 and 5 will be played on one day of rest. The Sun went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS playing with the short break this season while Washington was a tad better at 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS.

-- The pair will have three or more days of rest between the first and third installments. Both Connecticut (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Washington (9-2 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) have fared well with the extra rest.

-- Sticking with the above, Game 1 and 3 are afternoon matchups. Connecticut has gone 6-9 ATS in day games while the Mystics own a solid 10-4 ATS mark.

Total Talk

-- The ‘under’ went 3-0 in this year’s regular season meetings between the pair.

-- In 2018, the two clubs saw their total results go 2-2.

-- Make a note that Washington has scored 75, 69 and 68 points in their last three trips to the Mohegan Sun Arena.

-- Including the postseason, the Sun watched the ‘under’ go 20-17 while Washington was a great ‘over’ wager (23-15).

-- Connecticut saw both its home (10-9) and away (10-8) records lean to the low side.

-- Washington saw the ‘over’ go 12-7 at home and 11-8 on the road.

-- As mentioned above, Game 1 and 3 will be afternoon tilts and even though the Mystics were an ‘over’ club this season, the high side was just 8-6 in day games. Connecticut watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 in afternoon spots.

WNBA Finals - Notable Trends

-- Both teams are aiming for their first WNBA title. While the Mystics were swept by Seattle in the finals last year, the Sun haven't been here since consecutive appearances in 2004-05. They were coached by Mike Thibault, who now ironically leads Washington.

-- Favorites have gone 13-8 straight up and 9-11-1 ATS in the last five finals.

WNBA History

-- Home squads have produced a 12-9 straight up record during this span.

-- Total bettors have watched more ‘under’ tickets connect in the last dance with the low side holding a slight 12-9 lean.

Stats to Watch

-- Washington has been an offensive machine, ranked first in points (89.3), field goal percentage (46.9%) and free throw percentage (87.5%).

-- The Mystics also led the league in 3-pointers attempted per game (25.4) and they were second in percentage (36.6%) from downtown.

-- Connecticut was ranked third in 3-point shooting percentage (35.6%).

-- That effort helped the Sun averaged 80.8 PPG, which was ranked fourth. That number could’ve been improved but Connecticut was ranked last in free throw percentage (70.3 PPG).

-- Washington surrendered 77.2 PPG defensively, ranked fourth in the league. Connecticut was a few hairs behind at 77.9 PPG.

Players to Watch – Notable Quotes

Connecticut

The Sun have benefited by having a healthy year from their starting lineup; the team used the same five players to begin every game. Jasmine Thomas, Alyssa Thomas, Shekinna Stricklen, Courtney Williams and Jonquel Jones all have the ability to have big games, making them tough to game plan against.

The core of Alyssa Thomas (11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds), Jasmine Thomas (11.1, 5.1) and Jonquel Jones (14.6, 9.7) has been together since 2016. Point guard Courtney Williams (13.2, 5.6 and 3.2 assists) joined them in 2017. Jasmine Thomas says they're like a college team that is dominated by seniors and understand how to play with each other.

''We take pride in team basketball. That's what we have fun doing on the defensive and offensive end,'' said Jasmine Thomas. ''But I think we definitely have stars here. We have All-Stars; we have the best 3-point shooter in the league (Shekinna Stricklen - 3rd in the WNBA). We have people who are reaching milestones in their career so early. We do play team basketball, but we absolutely have stars.''

Washington

This Mystics team is very different than the one that got swept by Seattle last season.

The Mystics are led by forward Elena Delle Donne, who was named the 2019 WNBA MVP in a near-unanimous vote. Delle Donne averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists and shot a league-high 97.4% from the free throw line.

Along side EDD is Emma Meesseman, who missed the 2018 season while preparing for the Women's World Cup with Belgium. Meesseman was a huge reason the Mystics were able to advance past Las Vegas, winning the series in Game 4 as she had 22 points in the win.

''We didn't have Emma. We're a different team when she's on it,'' Delle Donne said. ''We got a really good Connecticut team coming in. They are playing really great basketball. We'll focus on them and figure some things out.''

While the Mystics have been in this position before, only guard Kristi Toliver has won a title, doing so with Los Angeles in 2016. She had been sidelined with her own bone bruise before returning for the playoffs. She started in Game 4 of the series against Las Vegas - the first time she had done so in the playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, September 29


Connecticut @ Washington

Game 601-602
September 29, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
112.245
Washington
122.830
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 10 1/2
179
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
165 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, September 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (26 - 11) at WASHINGTON (28 - 9) - 9/29/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games on Sunday games this season.
WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 7-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 6-4 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Sunday, September 29

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Mystics
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games at home
Washington is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Washington is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Connecticut is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Connecticut is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Connecticut is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Connecticut is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games when playing Washington
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
Connecticut is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, September 29

National League

Last day of the regular season; lot of bullpen games.

Marlins (56-105) @ Phillies (81-80)
Alcantara is 0-2, 3.66 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 4.97 in two starts vs Philly this year. Team in his starts: 10-21
5-inning record: 13-15-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-31 Over/under: 8-15-8

Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Miami is 3-4 in its last seven games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-3-1 last eight games.

Philly lost six of its last eight games; under is 8-4-3 in their last 16 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3-1 last 11 games.

Reds (74-87) @ Pirates (69-92)
Bauer is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 3-7
5-inning record: 3-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-10 Over/under: 5-4-1

Williams is 0-2, 7.86 in his last four starts; he is 2-0, 2.00 in three starts vs Cincy this year. Team in his starts: 14-11
5-inning record: 07-13-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-25 Over/under: over 12-2 last 14

Cincinnati lost six of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-1 last six games.

Pirates won four of their last five games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine home games.

Braves (97-64) @ Mets (85-76)
Soroka is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts; he is 2-0, 3.65 in two starts vs NYM this year. Team in his starts: 19-9
5-inning record: 18-7-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-28 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six

Syndergaard is 0-1, 6.97 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Atlanta this year. Team in his starts: 18-13
5-inning record: 14-11-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-31 Over/under: over 6-0 last six

Atlanta lost four of last five games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3-1 last nine road games.

Mets won eight of last 11 games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3-1 last 11 games.

Brewers (89-72) @ Rockies (70-91)
Woodruff is is 0-0, 0.00 in two opens (4 IP) since coming off the IL; he is starts vs Colorado. Team in his starts: 18-4
5-inning record: 15-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-22 Over/under: 13-9

Hoffman is 1-1, 5.49 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 6-8
5-inning record: 5-7-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-14 Over/under: last three over

Brewers won seven of their last nine games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-3 last seven games.

Colorado lost six of last ten games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 10-5 last 15 games.

Cubs (84-77) @ Cardinals (90-71)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Flaherty is 5-2, 1.18 in his last nine starts; he is 1-1, 3.07 n five starts vs Chicago this year. Team in his starts: 16-16
5-inning record: 14-9-9 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-32 Over/under: under 13-2 last 15

Cubs lost nine of their last 11 games; over is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten games.

St Louis won six of last ten games; under is 3-3-1 in their last seven home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 games.

Padres (70-91) @ Diamondbacks (84-77)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Padres lost 14 of last 16 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six games.

Arizona won seven of last nine games; over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-3 last six games.

Dodgers (105-56) @ Giants (77-84)
Hill is 0-0, 2.45 in his last three starts (3.2 IP); he is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts vs SF this year. Team in his starts: 9-3
5-inning record: 4-4-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-12 Over/under: 6-4-2

Bumgarner is 0-1, 5.52 in his last five starts; he is 0-3, 4.37 in four starts vs LA this year. Team in his starts: 19-15
5-inning record: 14-13-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 13-34 Over/under: over 5-1-1 last seven

Dodgers won their last six games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.

Giants split their last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine home games. This is Bochy’s last game as SF’s manager.

American League
Rays (96-65) @ Blue Jays (66-95)
Snell is 1-0, 1.37 in his last five starts (19.2 IP); he is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs Toronto this. Team in his starts: 12-10
5-inning record: 9-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-22 Over/under: over 6-2-1 last nine

Buchholz is 0-2, 10.70 in his last four starts; 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs TB this year. Team in his starts: 5-6
5-inning record: 2-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-11 Over/under: over 3-0 last three

Rays won seven of last nine games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.

Toronto is 10-7 in its last 17 games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2-1 last nine games.

Orioles (54-107) @ Red Sox (83-78)
Bundy is 1-1, 3.57 in his last three starts; he is starts vs Boston. Team in his starts: 10-20
5-inning record: 16-12-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-30 Over/under: over 5-1 last six

Rodriguez is 2-0, 4.58 in his last three starts; he is 3-0, 1.29 in three starts vs Baltimore this year. Team in his starts: 25-8
5-inning record: 22-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-33 Over/under: under 4-1-1 last six

Orioles are 9-8 in their last 17 games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-5-2 last 17 games.

Boston is 4-8 in its last 12 games; over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-1 last seven games.

New York (103-58) @ Rangers (77-84)
Tanaka is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Texas. Team in his starts: 20-11
5-inning record: 19-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-31 Over/under: last three over

Lynn is 1-1, 3.26 in his last three starts; he is starts vs NY. Team in his starts: 1-8 last nine
5-inning record: 15-13-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 12-31 Over/under: under 7-3 last ten

New York split its last 16 games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-1-2 last nine games.

Texas lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 7-0 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-1-1 last eight games.

Tigers (47-113) @ White Sox (71-89)
Turnbull is 0-2, 3.94 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 1-16 last 17
5-inning record: 6-22-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-30 Over/under: under 5-2-1 last 8

Detwiler is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 4-6
5-inning record: 3-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 4-4-2

Detroit lost nine of last 11 games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1-2 last eight games.

White Sox won six of last nine games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-1-1 last six games.

Twins (101-60) @ Royals (58-103)
Perez is 0-1, 9.75 in his last three starts; he is 0-1, 9.95 in four starts vs KC this year. Team in his starts: 17-11
5-inning record: 17-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-28 Over/under: 17-11

Lopez is 0-2, 9.72 in his last two starts. Team in his starts: 5-12
5-inning record: 4-12-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-17 Over/under: 10-6-1

Twins won eight of last nine games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten road games.

Kansas City lost eight of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Astros (106-55) @ Angels (72-89)
Cole is 4-0, 1.16 in his last four starts; he is starts vs. LAA. Team in his starts: won last 12
5-inning record: 20-6-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-31 Over/under: under 4-1 last five

Peters is 1-1, 4.80 in his last three starts; they may use an opener. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Astros won 12 of last 13 games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-0 last five games.

Angels lost 13 of last 17 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-5 last 11 games.

A’s (97-64) @ Mariners (67-93)
Roark is 1-1, 9.45 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 5-4
5-inning record: 6-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-9 Over/under: 4-5

Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Oakland won 12 of last 16 games; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-2 last nine games.

Seattle lost four of its last five games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight games.

Interleague
Indians (93-68) @ Nationals (92-69)
Clevinger is 2-1, 0.86 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 10-5
5-inning record: 10-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-15 Over/under: over 6-2 last eight

Ross is 0-1, 6.94 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 5-2
5-inning record: 4-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-7 Over/under: 2-4-1

Indians lost five of last seven games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.

Washington won its last seven games; under is 3-3-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-5-2 last 17 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Umpires
Mia-Phil: Under is 8-2 in last 10 Miller games.
Cin-Pitt: Four of last five Visconti games went over.
Atl-NY: Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Porter games.
Mil-Colo: Under is 5-2 in first 5 innings in last seven TGibson tilts.
Chi-StL: Under is 3-1-2 in last six Eddings games.
SD-Az: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Muchlinski games.
LA-SF: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Gonzalez games.

TB-Tor: Six of last eight Nelson games went over.
Balt-Bos: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Ripperger games.
NYY-Tex: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Baker games.
Min-KC: Over is 5-1-2 in last eight Libka games.
Hst-LAA: Over is 14-2-1 in last 17 Marquez games.
A’s-Sea: Underdogs won last five Hudson games.

Clev-Wsh: Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Blaser games.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5
Ariz 21-71……18-68……39
Atl 21-69…..25-71……46
Cubs 18-67……25-70…..43
Reds 24-67……27-73…..51
Colo 17-72……26-66……43
LA 20-67……25-73……45
Mia 13-66……20-70…..33
Milw 21-67…..25-71…..46
Mets 26-64……21-66…..47
Philly 17-66…..21-70……38
Pitt 25-71…..18-67……43
StL 17-68…..20-70……37
SD 19-68……21-68…..40
SF 10-71……15-66……25
Wash 22-69…..21-67……43

Orioles 20-71…….23-69..….43
Boston 20-69…….24-69……44
W Sox 16-71…….18-68…….34
Clev 20-69…..21-71……..41
Det 21-71……18-65……..39
Astros 26-70…..17-69……..43
KC 19-68…..24-72……..43
Angels 26-72……15-67…….41
Twins 28-71……18-68……46
NYY 21-66……27-75……48
A’s 17-66…..19-71…….36
Sea 19-71…..17-69…….36
TB 24-70…..22-70……46
Texas 17-73…..24-67…….41
Toronto 18-71…..19-71…….37

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 83-63 NL, favorites -$1,467 over 68-67-5
AL @ NL– 68-66 NL, favorites -$1,900 over 73-58-8
Total: 151-129 NL, favorites -$3,367 Over 141-125-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, September 29

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY Yankees @ Texas
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
NY Yankees is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games

Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

Miami @ Philadelphia
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Miami

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games at home

Cleveland @ Washington
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Houston @ LA Angels
Houston
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

Detroit @ Chi White Sox
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit

San Diego @ Arizona
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego

Milwaukee @ Colorado
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Milwaukee is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games at home

Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Oakland @ Seattle
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home

Minnesota @ Kansas City
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Kansas City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Chi Cubs @ St. Louis
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 12 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings



Hastings - Race 7

Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta



Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 87 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 4:38P


FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ALL GOOD is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALL GOOD: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse had a bu llet workout within the last seven days.



4

ALL GOOD

3/1


8/5
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




10

FINALLY GOTTCHA

10


10/1

Front-runner

84


81


76.9


75.9


61.9




7

EL NOBLE

7


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

84


82


76.0


84.8


74.8




11

FORT LANGLEY

11


12/1

Stalker

77


76


69.6


69.6


51.6




4

ALL GOOD

4


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

100


100


84.4


92.8


90.8




3

DOOBIEDOOBIEDOOBIE

3


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

74


79


60.7


73.3


54.3




6

FRIGHT NIGHT

6


8/1

Trailer

83


86


65.3


79.6


69.6




12

SPECULATOR

12


6/1

Trailer

89


85


63.6


83.4


73.9




9

WHISKEY BOUND

9


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

83


82


73.1


80.5


69.5




5

STAY FANTASTIC

5


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

83


85


68.4


79.4


67.4




1

JUSTIFIED

1


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

90


79


79.3


69.7


55.7




8

HARRY'S HAMMER

8


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

83


81


72.6


78.4


62.9




2

PADDY D'ORO

2


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

80


73


65.0


58.1


39.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields



Golden Gate Fields - Race 7

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double /$0.50 Late Pick 5 Races (7-8-9-10-11) $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) $1 Rolling Super High Five



Allowance • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 4:19P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON THE OPEN FIRST CONDITION ALLOWANCE RACE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MUST CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS.).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Trailer. TOMAHAWK TUESDAY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LA WAUN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EL CHAVO DEL OCHO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOMAHAWK TUESDAY: Horse r anks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GIDDYMEISTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RUSH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



9

LA WAUN

12/1


6/1




6

EL CHAVO DEL OCHO

7/2


6/1




3

TOMAHAWK TUESDAY

15/1


7/1




5

GIDDYMEISTER

5/2


8/1




4

RUSH

9/2


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

OUTLAW

1


4/1

Front-runner

96


90


91.6


83.6


70.1




9

LA WAUN

9


12/1

Front-runner

98


99


85.8


94.4


87.9




5

GIDDYMEISTER

5


5/2

Front-runner

96


95


85.2


92.4


82.9




4

RUSH

4


9/2

Stalker

98


89


88.6


91.6


81.6




8

FORT COURAGE

8


12/1

Stalker

97


93


81.2


87.0


74.5




7

CAPTURE THE SEA

7


12/1

Stalker

87


85


78.2


77.2


64.7




2

ARMOUR PLATE

2


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

94


91


93.9


76.8


64.8




6

EL CHAVO DEL OCHO

6


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

97


92


82.6


93.4


90.4




3

TOMAHAWK TUESDAY

3


15/1

Trailer

98


95


87.2


93.0


83.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



09/29/19, MTH, Race 2, 1.44 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.02 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000.
Claiming Price $12,500, For Each $1,000 To $10,500 1 lb. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 29
Win, Place and Show - Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta - Daily Double (Races 2-3)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) - 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
1
Distinctive Lady
7/2
Tunon M
Sweezey J. Kent
FE


098.1028
2
Exceed the Goal
9/5
Diaz. Jr. H R
Englehart Jeffrey S.




098.0965
5
What About Tonight
3-1
Lopez P
Lisowski Katie
J


097.8382
4
Luna Azteca
8-1
Moreno A
Delgado Jose H.
TL


097.6332
6
Trufflesberg
5-1
Hernandez H
Englehart Jeffrey S.
SWC


096.0593
3
Miss Maris
7/2
Garcia W A
Lisowski Katie




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


1
76.50
1.21
48.62
88
181
[All Surfaces] Best Finish


2
62.60
2.12
21.43
6
28
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race


5
52.60
2.20
22.73
5
22
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


4
52.60
2.20
22.73
5
22
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


6
52.60
2.20
22.73
5
22
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


3
52.60
2.20
22.73
5
22
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Century Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 BREAK THE LINE (ML=5/1)
#7 MOMTHINKSIMCUTE (ML=15/1)
#4 LORD OF THE NORTH (ML=3/1)
#3 RAIDEN (ML=7/5)


BREAK THE LINE - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This gelding is in excellent condition right now. Ran second last time out and comes back soon. MOMTHINKSIMCUTE - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. LORD OF THE NORTH - Shipped in on September 21st to win here. Take right back again. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a solid effort on September 21st. Lead at every call in last race at Century Downs. Pretty good opportunity to repeat that effort in this field. Another way to identify class is earnings per race entered. This horse has the top in the group. I think he'll be close at the end. RAIDEN - This race horse should be thundering in the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DUDLEY DO (ML=8/1),

DUDLEY DO - This lower class level horse may have a tough time rebounding off of two hard stretch runs.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BREAK THE LINE - Dropped in class last time around the track at Century Downs. Stays at the same level today. Look for a strong effort.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 BREAK THE LINE on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $7200 Class Rating: 54

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 HEIZENBERG 5/2




# 6 CATCHTHISROYALSTAR 4/1




# 2 THE LOUISIANA FIRE 8/1




HEIZENBERG looks to be a decent contender. Will make a strong outing versus this group. CATCHTHISROYALSTAR - A solid 75 avg class fig may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this group of horses. Opposing a much softer lot than last time out. THE LOUISIANA FIRE - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group of horses. Should go off at a nice number and has some positive attributes going for him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $17400 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OVER A MILE SINCE JULY 17, 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 14 BONITA SPRINGS 5/1




# 10 HEAVEN ESCAPE 4/1




# 1 NOVELLA 10/1




My pick for this event is BONITA SPRINGS. This equine is in the upper half of this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. She has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this field. HEAVEN ESCAPE - Overall the speed figs of this horse look decent in this contest. Recently Machado has been sizzling which may give the edge to this filly. NOVELLA - With a strong 88 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Allowance - 12.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 MARSHALL LAW (IRE) (ML=8/1)
#7 BOBBY G (ML=5/2)
#9 MOKHEEF (ML=3/1)


MARSHALL LAW (IRE) - When McCarthy and Stidham unite on animals the win pct has been tremendous at 35. Jockey hops up aboard after getting to know the race horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a great angle. Have to make this colt a contender; he comes off a good outing on Aug 31st. BOBBY G - Took a class drop last time out at Laurel. Corrales keeps him at the same level in this field. I think that's a good move. Average class figure is tops in this bunch. I think that is a big advantage for a grass race. Ran a nice speed rating of 97 on Aug 30th. Followed it up with another speed rating of 94. Either effort is good enough to win easy. The most recent rating of 94 is the best last race speed fig in the bunch. MOKHEEF - This horse has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed figure at the dist-surf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MR. DISCRETIONARY (ML=5/1), #2 MR. D'ANGELO (ML=6/1),

MR. DISCRETIONARY - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (87/81/78) of speed figs. I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the job completed now and then. Will be hard for this animal to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable challengers list. MR. D'ANGELO - Don't figure that this steed has what it takes to win in today's event.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BOBBY G - This horse is a top contender against these ponies. This gelding has been victorious many a time at Laurel.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 MARSHALL LAW (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7] Box [1,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,7,9] with [1,7,9] with [1,7,8,9,10] with [1,7,8,9,10] Total Cost: $36



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



09/29/19, GP, Race 9, 5.33 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.02 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000.
Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 9-10-11)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Could Be
9/2
Rendon J
David Carlos A.
F


099.7881
12
Power Walker
6-1
Jaramillo E
Baxter Georgina
T


098.9840
14
Big Boy Bruno
6-1
Torres C A
Walder Peter R.




098.2532
8
Til the End
5-1
Zayas E J
Dobles Elizabeth L.
JW


097.8869
1
Philo
8-1
Sanchez H
Dobles Elizabeth L.
C


095.8498
3
Remember the Maine
12-1
Reyes L
Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos




095.5354
5
King Orb
8-1
Vasquez M A
Crichton Rohan
E


094.4943
4
Discreet Heat
12-1
Jimenez A
Levy Tamara L.




094.4929
13
Unlockthepotential
12-1
Panici L
Abreu Fernando




093.2982
10
Crown to the Gold
12-1
Camacho S
Nagle Sarah
S


093.0151
9
So Long Chuck
15-1
Torres C A
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
L


092.0716
2
My Point Exactly
12-1
Batista J A
Quiroz Angel




091.8094
11
Strike Midnight
8-1
Meneses M
Belsoeur Yvon




089.5350
6
Break in the Storm
30-1
Santos A
Dominguez Luis R.




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GP.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
42.20
1.16
41.22
54
131
[All Surfaces] Last Race Was Claimed


1
11.40
1.14
35.71
15
42
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Best Closer


If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
14
Big Boy Bruno
6-1
Torres C A
Walder Peter R.
TW


098.4047
12
Power Walker
6-1
Jaramillo E
Baxter Georgina
J


098.1568
7
Could Be
9/2
Rendon J
David Carlos A.
F


097.5451
1
Philo
8-1
Sanchez H
Dobles Elizabeth L.
C


097.2262
5
King Orb
8-1
Vasquez M A
Crichton Rohan
E


097.1647
8
Til the End
5-1
Zayas E J
Dobles Elizabeth L.




094.9329
3
Remember the Maine
12-1
Reyes L
Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos




094.4831
13
Unlockthepotential
12-1
Panici L
Abreu Fernando




093.6814
4
Discreet Heat
12-1
Jimenez A
Levy Tamara L.




093.6708
2
My Point Exactly
12-1
Batista J A
Quiroz Angel




093.1953
10
Crown to the Gold
12-1
Camacho S
Nagle Sarah
S


092.8405
11
Strike Midnight
8-1
Meneses M
Belsoeur Yvon




092.8177
9
So Long Chuck
15-1
Torres C A
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
L


090.8795
6
Break in the Storm
30-1
Santos A
Dominguez Luis R.




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GP.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


14
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


12
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


7
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


1
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


5
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


8
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


3
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


13
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


4
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


2
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


10
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


11
99.60
1.61
46.34
38
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today


9
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route


6
81.20
1.20
37.19
74
199
[All Dirt] Race Distance Route

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PGF

NFL teaser MINN +8 / WASH +9. FreePLAY