Friday 10-4-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Mike Lundin Oct 04 '19, 4:37 PM in 8h
MLB | Cardinals vs Braves
Play on: Cardinals -120 at betonline

MIKE LUNDIN'S CARDINALS @ BRAVES FREE PICK OCTOBER 4, 2019
The Atlanta Braves are more or less in a "must-win" spot here after dropping the opener of this best-of-five NLDS Thursday night. I think that was pretty much their season though, as tonight they'll come up against Cardinals' ace Jack Flaherty.
Flaherty (11-8, 2.75 ERA) is 1-0 with 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Braves on the season. He is coming off back-to-back shutout performances and the relatively early start should be an advantage for the 23-year-old who has a 1.48 ERA in 12 day starts in 2019.
As for Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz (8-6, 4.54 ERA), the right-hander has been tagged with nine runs (eight earned) on 12 hits across 10 2/3 innings of work in two starts against the Cards this season. He is 3-4 with a 7.64 ERA in seven career starts against the club and this could turn ugly early for the 27-year-old.
Free pick on St. Louis Cardinals.

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Brad Diamond Oct 04 '19, 7:00 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Dartmouth vs Pennsylvania
Play on: Dartmouth -14½ -120 at 5Dimes

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Jimmy Boyd Oct 04 '19, 7:05 PM in 10h
NHL | Capitals vs Islanders
Play on: Capitals +109 at betonline

1* Free Pick on Capitals +109

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Ray Monohan Oct 04 '19, 7:05 PM in 10h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets
Play on: Maple Leafs -1½ +170 at betonline

Maple Leafs -1.5
The line opened with the Leafs a -145 favorite, it is now hovering around -155 to -160. Until Columbus can show me that they haven't been hurt by all their loss of manpower from 2018/19 I'm going to fade them to start the season, especially against a Maple Leafs team that we all know can light that red light. In goal for the Leafs on Friday we should see Frederik Andersen who comes in with a 1-0 record and a 3.01 GAA and a .885 Save %. For Columbus we're expecting to see Joonas Korpisalo. (10-7-2 and a 2.95 GAA in 2018/19), with no Sergei Bobrovsky in net anymore for Columbus there should be an adjustment phase in Ohio.
The Leafs come into this matchup loaded up front with Mikheyev, Matthews, Marner (who had a goal and five points in three games vs. Columbus in 2018-19), Barrie, Rielly, Nylander and newly minted Captain Tavares all ready to do damage. The big question for me for Columbus is can they find a replacement for Artemi Panarin in Alexandre Texier? AND can Joonas Korpisalo fill the vacancy left by Bobrovsky to start the season? I say NO!
Some trends to consider tell me that the Maple Leafs like getting out to a nice start in October as they are backed by a 8-3 SU run in their last 11 games played in October. Plus they're 20-8 in their last 28 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and they're 21-8 in their last 29 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Columbus are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Atlantic division.
The Maple Leafs are expected to make a strong run at the Stanley Cup despite their recent playoff woes, and in my opinion not much is expected from the Blue Jackets despite some playoff success last season. We didn't learn much from the preseason with the Jackets so I have to just go with the better team, and for my money that's the Leafs on Friday night. I'm on the Leafs on the puckline.
Back the Leafs -1.5.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
TGIF 5* FREE NHL PL Winner

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 17
David Schwab

Hamilton helped it cause in winning the East Division title with Friday night’s 33-13 upset over Winnipeg as a five-point road underdog. In the first of three Saturday games on the Week 16 CFL schedule, Edmonton got past Ottawa 21-16, but it could not cover as seven-point favorites on the road.

In the third of four CFL inter-division tilts this past weekend, Saskatchewan rolled over Toronto 41-16 as a 6 ½-point road favorite. British Columbia kept things rolling for the West by beating Montreal 25-23, but it could not cover giving six points at home.

Friday, Oct. 4

Edmonton Eskimos (7-7 SU, 4-10 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (11-3 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -6
Total: 46 ½

Game Overview

The Eskimos were able to even their record and improve their playoff chances with Saturday’s win. They also snapped a straight-up four-game losing streak that included a 30-27 loss to Hamilton at home as slight 1 ½-point underdogs. Edmonton has failed to cover against the spread in seven of its last eight games with the total going OVER in four of its last six outings. Logan Kilgore threw a 17-yard game winning scoring strike to Tevaun Smith in the closing minutes to get past Ottawa.

Hamilton has clinched a playoff spot and its lead over Montreal for the East title is now four and a half games. The Tiger-Cats are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this season with a 4-1-1 record ATS. They are 6-3-1 ATS when closing as favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games. Dane Evans continues to get the call at quarterback and he threw for 359 yards and three scores against Winnipeg last Friday. Brandon Banks caught eight balls for 113 yards and a score in that game.

Betting Trends

-- Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last five road games against the Tigers-Cats with a 5-1-1 record ATS in its last seven trips to Hamilton. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Week 17 preview, odds, picks & predictions: Bombers Defense will bounce back
Rohit Ponnaiya

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have held the the Roughriders to 14.5 points per game in two contests this year, but are 6-point underdogs against Saskatchewan on Saturday.

Week 17 in the CFL is highlighted by a battle between the Roughriders and Blue Bombers. The Bombers are smarting after their embarrasing loss at home to Hamilton last week and will look to get their defense back on track against a Riders offense they have stuffed this season.

We break down the odds (provided by 10bet.com) for that game and more as we bring you our best bets and predictions for all the CFL games this weekend.

Season Betting Trends

Favorites: 45-16 SU, 26-33-2 ATS
Home teams: 35-26 SU, 28-31-2 ATS
Over/Under: 27-33-1

Week 16 Picks: 2-2
Season to date: 26-29-2

EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (-6, 46.5)

No Masoli, no matter. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats clinched first place in the Eastern Division with five weeks left in the regular season despite losing their star quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending injury in July. They are riding high after a 20-point victory on the road in Winnipeg and return home for a tilt against the Eskimos who have lost four of their last five games.

The Esks will once again be missing their own star QB in Trevor Harris who was moved to the six-game IL last weekend. Even with Harris, Edmonton had struggled in the red zone and despite leading the league with 403 yards per game is averaging only 21.3 points per game over thier last 10 contests.

With the Ti-Cats the No. 1 team in the league in both points scored (29.8 ppg) and points allowed (19.7 ppg), back them to win and cover the spread.

PICK: Hamilton -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Friday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (7 - 7) at HAMILTON (11 - 3) - 10/4/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
EDMONTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HAMILTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
HAMILTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
HAMILTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 16

Trend Report

Friday, October 4

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Hamilton's last 10 games
Hamilton is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games at home
Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Edmonton's last 12 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
Edmonton is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 17


Friday October 4

Edmonton @ Hamilton

Game 681-682
October 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
107.871
Hamilton
120.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 12 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 6
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-6); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 44-11
Against the Spread 25-30

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-18
Against the Spread 27-28

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-31-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 294-50
Against the Spread 171-166-7

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 246-94
Against the Spread 159-174-7

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 161-179-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Massachusetts (+8.5, ML +260) vs. Akron, 37-29
Houston (+8, ML +250) at North Texas, 46-25
Arkansas State (+7, ML +230) at Troy, 50-43
Arizona State (+4.5, ML +180) at California, 24-17

The largest favorites to cover
Syracuse (-37.5) vs. Holy Cross, 41-3
Florida (-33) vs. Towson, 38-0
Michigan (-27.5) vs. Rutgers, 52-0
Oklahoma (-27) vs. Texas Tech, 55-16

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Memphis topped Navy in an game on Thursday night, 35-23. The Midshipmen were leading the Tigers 20-14 at halftime, but the second half was a different story with the Tigers outscoring the Middles 21-3 in the final 30 minutes. It wasn't what would be called a bad beat, but the Tigers scored a 31-yard touchdown from Brady White to Damonte Coxie with 11:27 left to give the Tigers the cover and hit the number for over bettors. ... Cincinnati smashed Marshall, 52-14, hitting the 'over' (46.5) themselves. Luke Fickell's group is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with the only non-cover that 42-0 whitewashing at Ohio State on Sept. 7. The over was the first in four games for the Bearcats. ... Temple scored a nice win for the conference, topping Georgia Tech, 24-2. It was a little revenge against a Power 5 team, after UCF lost at Pitt, an ACC team, last week. ... SMU has quietly opened 5-0 SU/ATS. They wrecked South Florida by a 48-21 score. The Mustangs have rolled up 37 or more points in each of their five games, cashing the 'over' in all five outings.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Clemson left Kenan Stadium with a 21-20 victory over North Carolina. The Tar Heels scored a late touchdown and elected to go for two, coming up just short. The Tigers were outplayed for most of the game, but most good teams find a way to survive and advance. That's just what they did. ... Duke lost QB Daniel Jones to the NFL this past offseason, and they were expected to be rather middling. Ask Virginia Tech if that's accurate. The Blue Devils humbled the Hokies 45-10 in Blacksburg. Duke is now 3-1 SU/ATS, with their only loss to Alabama in their neutral-site opener. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row, too, as Duke has 41 or more points in each of the outings. ... The Blue Devils will welcome Pittsburgh in their next home game. The Panthers limped to a 17-14 win over FCS Delaware, perhaps a bit of a hangover after a huge win over UCF last week. To be fair, the Blue Hens were ranked No. 19 in the FCS rankings entering the week, so they're no slouch. Still, the Panthers were favored by four touchdowns. ... Those Vegas guys are pretty good sometimes. Syracuse was listed as a 37.5-point favorite over FCS Holy Cross. They ended up winning 41-3. Gordie Lockbaum wasn't walking through that door for the Crusaders today. ... Notre Dame was down at half to Virginia, but they bounced back at Georgia after their loss a week ago. The Irish have now covered three in a row after failing to cover by a point and a half in Louisville on Sept. 2.

BIG TEN

-- Penn State obliterated Maryland by a 59-0 count. Anyone holding an 'over' (59.5) ticket is likely none too pleased with the Terrapins. Since firing out of the box with 142 total points and a 2-0 SU/ATS mark in the first two games, the Terps are 0-2 SU/ATS while being outscored 79-17 in the past two. ... Michigan rebounded from their loss in Madison last week, thumping Rutgers, 52-0. The Wolverines outgained the Scarlet Knights 476-154 in total yards while picking up 28 first downs to 10. ... Wisconsin might have endured a bit of a hangover, too, after their big win over Michigan. The Badgers weren't pretty, especially with those throwback tan pants and 'UW' helmets, but they got it done 24-15 over Northwestern. The Wildcats have been a thorn in the side of Bucky over the years. ... Minnesota went to Ross-Ade Stadium and took care of Purdue by a 38-31 score to move to 4-0 SU. More importantly it was the first cover of the season for the Gophers (1-2-1 ATS). The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for Minny, too. ... Ohio State hammered Nebraska by a 48-7 score, moving to 4-0 ATS over the past four outings. Ohio State has scored 42 or more points in all five of their games.

BIG 12

-- It was a slow week in the Big 12, with a total of just four games, all conference battles, in action. Kansas was back to themselves, and that's not a good thing. TCU roughed up the Jayhawks 51-14, firing out to a 38-0 halftime lead and never looking back. The Horned Frogs are 2-2 ATS and the over/under is 2-2. One consistent thing about the Horned Frogs has been their offense, posting 34 or more points in each outing. They allowed 41 in their loss against SMU on Sept. 21, but they have allowed a total of 34 points in their other thee outings. ... Oklahoma hammered Texas Tech, 55-16. They fired out to a 17-0 start after the first quarter to set the tone early. Oddly enough, with a total of 71, this game pushed at most shops. The Sooners have now covered three in a row. ... Baylor edged Iowa State, 23-21, kicking a last-second field goal for the win. Matt Rhule's bunch is now 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS, covering both home games vs. FBS opponents.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic hit the road for Charlotte, and they partied like it was 2017. They won 45-27 in the Conference USA road opener, moving to 3-2 SU. The Owls have scored 41 or more points in three consecutive games, too, as the Lane Train is rolling again, halfway to bowl eligibility. ... Middle Tennessee got spanked 48-3 at lowa, as head coach Rick Stockstill is finding life to be difficult after his son graduated. The Blue Raiders were down 24-0 at halftime, and it obviously didn't get much better after that. The Blue Raiders covered the opener at Michigan, but they're 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS over the past three. The 'over' is 3-0-1 in four games for MTSU this season, as they have allowed 40 or more points in three of those contests, all against Power 5 schools, though. ... North Texas fell to Houston 46-25, as the Mean Green fell as six-point favorites at home.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo scored a nice win for the conference, topping BYU 28-21 at the Glass Bowl. They entered the fourth quarter down 21-14. It was actually their first win by seven or more points after entering the fourth quarter down by seven or more since Oct. 16, 1971 vs. Western Michigan (down 24-14, won 35-24), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. ... Speaking of Western Michigan, they topped rival Central Michigan 31-15 in Kalamazoo. Officially, this game was a push, as a majority of shops closed at 16. However, some might have gotten this as high as 17.5 and some might have laid just 15. This line differed by as many as two and a half points this week. ... Akron continues to struggle mightily, hitting rock bottom in a 37-29 loss at Massachusetts as 6.5-point favorites. The Zips are now 0-5 SU/ATS, and they have allowed at least 31 points in all five games this season. ... Miami-Ohio booted Buffalo, 34-20, as the 'over' (50) connected. The over is 13-5 in the past 18 for Buffalo, and 8-3 in their past 11 on the road. The over is 5-1 in Miami's past six overall. In this series, the over is 8-1 in the past nine in Oxford, and 6-1 in the past seven battles overall.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- New Mexico outlasted New Mexico State in a crazy 55-52 victory in Albuquerque. When the Lobos and Aggies hook up there are plenty of points sure to follow. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for UNM so far, as they have averaged 36.0 PPG on offense while yielding 46.3 PPG on defense. ... San Jose State scored a huge victory for their program, topping Arkansas by a 31-24 count. It was the first win against a Power 5 opponent since 2006 for the Spartans. The 'under' has cashed in all three games for San Jose State so far, ans they're a respectable 2-1 SU. The cover was their first of the season, too. ... Nevada posted a nice 37-21 road win over UTEP, moving to 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The 'over' is also 3-1 in four games for the Wolf Pack. ... Utah State earned the 23-17 victory at San Diego State to move to 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. ... Boise State remained perfect at 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS after topping Air Force on Friday night by a 30-19 score. After UCF's lost to Pitt, the Broncos are now likely the top Group of Five entrant.
PAC-12

-- There are no more unbeaten teams in the conference after California was tripped up 24-17 in Berkeley by Arizona State. The Bears lost starting QB Chase Garbers (shoulder) in the first half, and backup QB Devon Modster was a train wreck. The Bears will have issues at Oregon next week if Garbers isn't available, and he likely won't be. ... Washington has restored order after their loss to Cal earlier, dropping USC by a 28-14 count. Sure, the Trojans are down to their third-string QB due to injuries, but this one was closer than some thought. USC is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home, and 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. ... UCLA-Arizona was a tussle, as the Bruins lost QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (ankle) to an injury, while the Wildcats were already without QB Khalil Tate (lower body). The Wildcats hung on for the 20-17 win, but the Bruins covered for the second consecutive road game.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Texas A&M edged rivals Arkansas 31-27 in a neutral-site battle in Arlington, Tex. The Razorbacks did a good job after an embarrassing loss at home to San Jose State last week, but the results are the same. The Aggies improved to 3-2 SU, and 1-1 in the SEC, but they have failed to cover in each of the past two. ... Florida stepped out of conference for the 38-0 win over FCS Towson in a tune-up for Auburn next time out. ... Speaking of Auburn, they roughed up Mississipp State, and finally got the pass game going. ... Vanderbilt nipped Northern Illinois, 24-18, as the Huskies officially covered at most shops as a 6.5-point underdog. It was Vandy's first win in four games, but they're 0-4 ATS. ... Alabama paddled Mississippi by a 59-31 count in a high-scoring affair at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Rebels grabbed the cover, just their second in five outings this season. Howver, they're 2-0 ATS against SEC opponents.

SUN BELT

-- Texas State won for the second straight weekend, topping FCS Nicholls State 24-3. That doesn't sound terribly impressive, but Nicholls is ranked in the Top 25. ... Arkansas State outlasted Troy by a 50-43 count in the highest scoring game of the entire FBS weekend. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two games for the Red Wolves. ... Louisiana-Lafayette took care of Georgia Southern by a 37-24 score as the 'over' connected. With a total of 54 points on the board, the Ragin' Cajuns picked up a touchdown to push the total over, 37-23, flipping the total from under to over.

Bad Beats

-- On Friday night, Air Force worked over San Jose State, 41-24. The Spartans were down 41-10 with 7:48 left in regulation. They scored a TD with 3:51 left. Falcons bettors, on the right side all night, saw Air Force go for it on fourth and short and miss inside their own territory. The Spartans took over and backup QB Nick Nash hit TE Derrick Deese Jr. for a score with :52 left for the backdoor cover and bad beat. And under (56.5) bettors thought the TD with 3:51 was a bad beat. Nah. The line change inside the final minute was much worse.

-- Also on Friday, Duke scored a touchdown with 3:37 to go, already up 38-10, flipping the total from an under to an over. It wasn't a true 'bad beat', and you probably won't see this one on Scott Van Pelt, but it hurt just the same if you had the under. It looked great all night, with a total of just 27 points on the board with 5:56 to go in the third quarter.

-- In that NIU-Vandy game, with the Huskies down 24-10, the visitors scored a touchdown to make it 24-16, still not covering as 6.5-point underdogs. Much to the delight of side bettors of Northern Illinois, the coach elected to go for two - and got it. If you were laying the 6.5 with Vandy, you likely said a lot of bad words. Still, there was just under 12 minutes to change the result, but that was the final score of the game. Maybe it's not technically a bad beat, but it is a curious decision by the NIU coach at the least, and deserves honorable mention.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big weekend of the college football season to close September.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Memphis (-11) 35, Navy 23: Navy wound up a with a pronounced production edge Thursday night against Memphis and the Midshipmen led 20-7 about halfway through the second quarter. Memphis returned the next kickoff 99 yards to get within six by halftime and in the third quarter the Tigers added 14 points including a 73-yard strike to put Memphis up 28-20. Navy added a field goal early in the fourth to boost the chances for the underdog but Memphis answered quickly to reach its greatest lead of the game up by 12. Navy had two late possessions but wasn’t much of a threat to add points.

Air Force (-19½) 41, San Jose State 24: San Jose State scored on its opening drive looking to back up last week’s win over Arkansas. The Spartans were also stopped on downs in Air Force territory on the next two possessions as they had an opportunity for an even better start. Air Force scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions but had a costly fumble in the red zone just before halftime to lead by only 11 on spread that climbed upward Friday evening. Air Force scored 13 points five minutes into the second half helped by what turned into an accidental wind-aided on-side kick recovery to take a commanding 34-10 edge. After both teams botched scoring opportunities late in the third quarter a lengthy Air Force drive ended in a touchdown to put the Falcons up by 31 about halfway through the fourth quarter. With backup quarterback Nick Nash in the game, the Spartans connected for a 30-yard touchdown pass with fewer than four minutes remaining. Air Force then wound up going for it on 4th-and-short from its own 22 with a 24-point lead and fell short. Handed great field position, Nash put the Spartans into the end zone inside of two minutes to steal the underdog cover.

Arizona State (+4½) 24, California 17: After losing quarterback Chase Garbers just before halftime California managed to take a three-point lead early in the fourth quarter taking advantage of great field position after Jayden Daniels fumbled on a sack. Leaning on the running game Arizona State responded with a lengthy drive to get in front 21-17 with about five minutes to go. Cal failed going for it on 4th down on its next possession but Arizona State only added three to keep the game in play. Devon Modster and the Bears were not able to put together much on a late chance to keep its perfect season going, ultimately winding up with only 245 yards for the game.

Wisconsin (-23) 24, Northwestern 15: The heavy underdog Wildcats hung around vs. Wisconsin but a 68-yard interception return in the fourth quarter suddenly put Wisconsin up by 21 despite the game being just 7-3 late in the third quarter. Northwestern had a 3-and-out to hand the Badgers the ball back with a chance to get past the favorite spread but the punt wasn’t handled as the Wildcats managed to recover the muff and with good field position found the end zone to secure the underdog cover. Northwestern actually adding another touchdown later in the fourth and had a two-point conversion attempt to get back within seven that came up short. It was another cover for the Wildcats in the series, while actually out-gaining Wisconsin and featuring a 21-13 edge in 1st downs but with two Wisconsin defensive scores allowed.

Wake Forest (-4½) 27, Boston College 24: Wake Forest and Boston College were knotted at 17-17 at the break but Wake Forest added a late third quarter field goal and an early fourth quarter touchdown to lead by 10. In that stretch the Demon Deacons survived an interception with a 4th down stop on defense. Boston College climbed back in the game with a touchdown completed from running back David Bailey throwing to get within three and within the underdog spread with just over six minutes to go. Wake Forest used up significant clock on a 12-play drive but couldn’t run it all out as Boston College had a late chance, eventually reaching the midfield on the final play.

Western Michigan (-15½) 31, Central Michigan 15: The spread on this game dipped from as high as -17½ to just -15½ at some outlets by kickoff. With a 24-0 edge through three quarters it didn’t appear to matter but Central Michigan put up a fourth quarter fight with nine early points. A Western Michigan touchdown with about five minutes to go put the Broncos back past the number but the Chippewas quickly answered with a 34-yard strike to score. Down 16 Central Michigan went for two and came up empty in a critical play for those that waited to play the Saturday prices.

Toledo (+2½) 28, BYU 21: BYU broke a 14-14 tie with a touchdown on a short field following a muffed punt to lead by seven as a slight road favorite. Toledo would answer less than a minute into the fourth quarter to tie the game before the teams traded punts and then empty possessions with BYU stopped on downs and Toledo having a fumble at the BYU 20-yard-line. The momentum swung back quickly as BYU quarterback Zach Wilson was intercepted on 1st down with a return all the way down to the 2-yard-line. Toledo punched in the touchdown on the next play and the defense was able to hold off a drive to the Toledo 32 in the final seconds behind BYU back-up quarterback Jaren Hall after Wilson injured his hand on the decisive interception.

Vanderbilt (-7½) 24, Northern Illinois 18: The Commodores jumped out to a 14-0 lead only about six minutes into the game and that score held through halftime. Northern Illinois managed a field goal and a touchdown early in the second half but Vanderbilt seemed to put the game away with a 38-yard touchdown pass late in third quarter. Another score was on the way early in the fourth but in settling for a short field goal, Vanderbilt kept the door open for the underdog. Northern Illinois would score just two minutes later and down eight opted to go for two, successfully trimming the margin to six points in an unexpected play with huge ramifications relative to the spread that was commonly at 6½ before rising to 7½. The six-point margin held with neither side offering much of a scoring threat in the final 10 minutes.

Oklahoma (-27½) 55, Texas Tech 16: Oklahoma’s victory was never in doubt, but the heavy underdog Red Raiders rushed for nearly 200 yards and were in position to cover with the ball back down 32. A fumble near midfield sealed their fate with about nine minutes to go and the Red Raiders came up empty in two late drives that reached well into Oklahoma territory while Oklahoma added one more touchdown to win by 39.

Notre Dame (-10½) 35, Virginia 20: Virginia led 17-14 at halftime and had a significant production edge at that point. In the third quarter the Irish ran 11 plays and the only 1st down they picked up was via a penalty but they wound up with an 11-point lead thanks to three Virginia fumbles, one of which was returned to the two-yard-line and another was brought to the end zone for a defensive score. That margin was right in-between a spread that hit as high as +13 but dropped on game day down to as low as +10. Virginia had two interceptions in the fourth quarter looking to climb back in the game while Notre Dame broke a 30-yard run for a touchdown. Down 18 Virginia opted for a 27-yard field goal with six minutes to go that was of no help to the underdog supporters.

Washington (-12) 28, USC 14: Washington led by 10 at the half and by 14 through three quarters after Michael Pittman had a 44 touchdown to bring USC back in the game. Washington fumbled near midfield to hand USC an opportunity in the fourth quarter but an exchange of punts followed. USC looked likely to earn the underdog cover late reaching 1st-and-goal from the Washington 5-yard-line but the Trojans weren’t able to get in. On its final possession Matt Fink brought USC across midfield and pass interference converted a 4th-and-10 play. The next throw was intercepted however as the Huskies escaped still up 14 after a scoreless final frame.

UCF (-42½) 56, Connecticut 21: The Knights nearly eclipsed this massive spread by halftime with a 42-0 advantage and with nearly six minutes left in the third quarter it was 56-0. The Huskies would score late in the third quarter for the first time and then again in the fourth to get the margin back to 42 and within the hefty underdog number. On its next possession UCF fumbled at the UConn 21-yard-line and then with two minutes remaining the Knights went for it on 4th-and-9 rather than attempting a long field goal. A sack on that play gave the Huskies good field position and Steven Krajewski fired away, getting the Huskies into the end zone with 19 seconds to go to secure the underdog win.

Stanford (-3½) 31, Oregon State 28: Davis Mills led Stanford to an early 21-0 edge but Oregon State made a late charge getting to 21-14 early in the fourth quarter. Stanford would answer to lead by 14 with nine minutes remaining but the Beavers kept the momentum on offense with a six-play touchdown drive to get back within seven with seven minutes to go. Oregon State’s defense forced a 3-and-out and the Beavers went 77 yards to tie the game with fewer than two minutes remaining. It was however enough time for Mills and the Stanford offense thanks to a 43-yard kickoff return as the Cardinal gained 29 more yards and connected from 39 yards for the game-winning field goal, though for many, the Beavers still collected.

Appalachian State (-14½) 56, Coastal Carolina 37: After the big win over North Carolina, Appalachian State found itself in a back-and-forth game with a 21-21 tie late in the second quarter. The Mountaineers managed two touchdowns in the final two minutes before the break to suddenly lead by 14 however. Appalachian State scored first in the second half but by the start of the fourth quarter the 21-point edge had been shrunk to 12. An interception return touchdown put Appalachian State up by 19 and they added another touchdown on a short field with about four minutes remaining. A late Coastal Carolina touchdown wasn’t enough to get back within the number in a game that was much closer in the box score than the scoreboard suggests.

Liberty (-7½) 17, New Mexico 10: Liberty led 17-3 through three quarters and had a significant yardage edge. With a common number of -7 the line did hit -7½ by kickoff and late Flames backers had reason for worry. An interception bailed out Liberty following a missed field goal and the defense again got a big stop as New Mexico went for it on 4th-and-8 early in the fourth quarter. The Lobos would not be denied on their final possession however, converting a big third down with 53 seconds to go and then hitting the end zone with 43 seconds to go to climb within seven for the final margin.

UL-Monroe (-14½) 30, South Alabama 17: The Warhawks led by just seven heading into the fourth quarter but back-to-back touchdown drives pushed the margin to 20 points with about seven minutes to go. South Alabama would go 75 yards in the next four minutes however to get back within the number and UL-Monroe did not make a push to add points late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF (4 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/4/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UCF is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCF is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO (2 - 2) at SAN JOSE ST (2 - 2) - 10/4/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NEW MEXICO is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Trend Report

Friday, October 4

Central Florida @ Cincinnati
Central Florida
Central Florida is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Central Florida is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

New Mexico @ San Jose State
New Mexico
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Mexico's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Mexico's last 9 games
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games
San Jose State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 5

Friday’s games
Central Florida is 4-1 this year, scoring 45.8 ppg in four I-A games; their only loss was 35-34 at Pitt. Knights allowed 865 yards in their last two games. UCF is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year. Freshman QB Gabriel (from Hawai’i) is completing 61.7% of his passes, with 14 TD’s, only two INT’s. UCF beat Cincinnati the last three years, by average score of 38-13; Bearcats got crushed at Ohio St, but won their other three games, running for 464 yards in last two games. Cincy is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.

New Mexico split its first four games but allowed 2,124 yards, including 558 yards (443 PY) to a I-AA team; they scored 14-10 points in losing both road games, falling 17-10 (+7) at Liberty LW. Last five years, Lobos are 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog. San Jose State won three of last four games with New Mexico; dogs covered three of those four games. San Jose won at Arkansas but lost its other I-A games by 18-17 points; Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Nationwide, home favorites are 31-17 ATS in conference games this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

Friday, October 4

Central Florida @ Cincinnati

Game 307-308
October 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
98.264
Cincinnati
97.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 4
60
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+4); Under

New Mexico @ San Jose St

Game 309-310
October 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
67.151
San Jose St
70.268
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose St
by 3
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose St
by 7
64
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Oct. 4

Matchup Skinny
Edge

UCF at CINCINNATI...UCF 8-2 as visiting chalk since 2016. Fickell 2-3 as dog since LY. UCF has won and covered last three (well, counting the 2017 game, when UCF was blowing out Bearcats but game ended prematurely because of weather).
UCF, based on team and series trends.


NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE... SJS on 10-6 spread uptick. Spartans 13-5-1 as chalk since 2014. Lobos no covers last seven since late 2018, 8-20-1 last 29 on board.
San Jose State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

307UCF -308 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

309NEW MEXICO -310 SAN JOSE ST
SAN JOSE ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UCF at Cincinnati
Matt Blunt

No. 18 Central Florida at Cincinnati
Venue/Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 4 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: UCF -4 ½, Total 60

Recent Meetings:
2018: Central Florida (-6.5) 38 vs. Cincinnati 13, Under 60 ½
2017: Central Florida (-15) 51 at Cincinnati 23, Over 52 ½
2016: Central Florida (-10.5) 24 vs. Cincinnati 3, Under 51 ½
2015: Cincinnati 52 (-26) 52 vs. Central Florida 7, Under 61

The Conference of Champions is taking this Friday night off, as it's the AAC's turn to shine under the bright Friday night lights. The conference is hoping to showcase it's “best” team as the 18th ranked UCF Knights travel north to Cincinnati to try and knock off a 3-1 Bearcats program.

Outside of getting waxed by Ohio State, the Bearcats have looked good, winning by double-digits in all three of their wins, and really who has gone up against the Buckeyes so far in 2019 and not gotten waxed. There is a view that a loss to Pitt, as essentially double-digit road chalk, looks much worse on UCF's resume, but with how the Knights bounced back with a no-nonsense win over Connecticut last weekend, UCF knows they can't afford any more slip-ups.

Can the Bearcats play well enough to help one of those slip-ups happen, or will UCF just be on their way to potentially another long winning streak?

UCF cruised to the 56-21 win over Connecticut last weekend, as a 56-0 lead was established before the Knights called it a day and did so early enough to let Connecticut through the back door for an ATS win. But really -42 was a lofty number to cover after the program's first loss in 27 regular season games, and had UCF decided to play the full 60 minutes, the easy ATS win was there.

A thought like that has to be concerning to the rest of the AAC as league play really begins in earnest, because this UCF team just keeps pushing forward, even after dealing with their first setback in years. What that tells me is that it's going to be tough to ever catch UCF in a flat spot, or a look-ahead spot, at least pregame, the rest of the way. They can flush good and bad efforts just as quickly as one another, and while they probably got caught looking ahead to this primetime showcase in the 4th quarter last week as they watched Connecticut stroll through the back door, that happens here and it won't matter given the spread they've got to cover this week.

Hard to take anything away from Cincinnati's effort this year, although I guess you would have preferred to see a bit more fight and potential production against Ohio State. And while they are currently the only Ohio State opponent that didn't score against the Buckeyes this season, their 42-point deficit in the loss isn't the worst margin of defeat for an Ohio State opponent. Even further had they mustered a safety or FG in that game, they'd have the 2nd smallest margin of defeat by an Ohio State foe at just 39 points. That's how impressive Ohio State has been.

Not as much shame in that loss as it may appear for Cincinnati, and UCF, while good, is still not Ohio State. But the Bearcats defense got absolutely gashed on the ground that day (270 yards, 5.9 average), and UCF's attack is on the ground first. The Knights may not be Ohio State, but they recruit a similar caliber of athlete, and that does not bode well for Cincy's defense either. Sure, holding down Marshall, Miami (Ohio) and UCLA – although UCLA's offense deserves more credit after that Washington State game – to 14 or fewer points is one thing, doing that to the Knights is going to be near impossible. As a program, UCF hasn't scored fewer than 30 points in a single game since their 2016 Bowl loss to Arkansas State (31-13). That's 31 straight games of putting up 30 or more for UCF. Does this Bearcats offense have enough pop to keep up?

I'm not sure that they do, as even Pittsburgh needed a punt return TD, to win the ball control battle by 11+ minutes, and the turnover battle (2-1) to squeak out a 1-point win in the final minute. That's a lot of things going right for one team at home, and with how UCF came out of the gates last week, you know they've learned their lesson about playing sloppy ball. The focus shifted to this game for UCF in the 4th quarter of last week's win, and I don't believe they fall for the second time in three games.

A clean performance from UCF from start to finish has them winning by 10+, leaving plenty of room for error should the game not turn out so spotless for the Knights under the lights. Cincinnati's interior got whitewashed in that Ohio State game, and UCF should be capable of doing something similar. Really thought this line would be closer to a TD, but I guess that recent loss from UCF has popped their invincibility shield.

The Knights haven't lost three in a row against the number since late in the 2017 season - the one where they won the “National Championship”. Two of those three games saw them laying 39 points or more and that's what got them ATS-wise, and that's nothing we have to worry about here. Sorry Cincinnati, it will be the second primetime football loss this week for football teams in your city.

Best Bet: UCF -4 ½

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-3 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALDS - Rays at Astros
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Tampa Bay 4-3, Under 4-3)

Houston vs. Tampa Bay (Tropicana Field)
Mar. 28 - Astros 5, Rays 1 (Favorite -128, Under 6 ½)
Mar. 29 - Rays 4, Astros 2 (Underdog +128, Under 7)
Mar. 30 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +108, Under 8)
Mar. 31 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +103, Under 9 ½)

Tampa Bay vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
Aug. 27 - Astros 15, Rays 1 (Favorite -200, Over 7 ½)
Aug. 28 - Astros 8, Rays 6 (Favorite -230, Over 8)
Aug. 29 - Rays 9, Astros 8 (Underdog +200, Over 9)

The Astros (107-55) won a combined 106 games in 2012 and 2013, but Houston set a franchise record with 107 victories this season, while coming off a third consecutive American League West title. Houston captured its first World Series title in 2017 by defeating Los Angeles in seven games, but the Astros fell to the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series in five games in 2018.

Houston actually lost five of its first seven games this season, including dropping three of four at Tropicana Field to Tampa Bay to open 2019. The Astros bounced back to win 10 consecutive games, which included home sweeps of the Athletics and Yankees, while putting together another 10-game hot streak in May to open up at 31-15.

After finishing the first half at 57-33, the Astros went on an 18-3 run from mid-July through mid-August to own an incredible 77-40 mark, capped off by a 23-2 rout of the Orioles on August 10. Houston closed the season on a 12-2 spurt to set the franchise mark for wins in a season, but the bigger story is its three-headed monster in the starting rotation.

There are solid arguments to make for both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to take home the American League Cy Young award. Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) will start the series opener, as he finished with 300 strikeouts, including 14 in a no-hitter at Toronto on September 1. The Astros won 12 of his 17 starts at Minute Maid Park, although three of those losses came as a favorite of -230 or higher. Verlander defeated the Rays twice this season, including in a 15-1 home rout on August 27 as a -190 favorite.

Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) put together a career season as the right-hander is 35-10 in two years with the Astros since getting dealt by the Pirates. The Astros won Cole’s final 13 starts of the season, while the ace last lost a decision on May 22 against the White Sox. Houston owns a 12-0 record in Cole’s past 12 home outings, as nine of those wins came by two runs or more. Cole wasn’t sharp against the Rays in two starts this season by allowing four runs each time, including in an 8-6 home win on August 28 in which he struck out 14 batters in 6.2 innings.

The third ace in this rotation has a Cy Young in his career and joined the team in late July as Zack Greinke (18-5, 3.06 ERA) is seeking his first career championship. The Astros won eight of Greinke’s 10 starts following his trade from Arizona on July 31, as seven of the eight victories came by two runs or more. Greinke struggled in his lone outing against Tampa Bay this season by yielding five runs in 5.2 innings of a 9-8 home defeat on August 29 as a hefty -220 favorite.

The Rays (97-66) are the near bottom of the league in payroll, but Tampa Bay posted the second-most wins in franchise history this season with 96 victories. The 97th win came in Wednesday’s impressive 5-1 triumph over Oakland in the American League Wild Card game to advance to the ALDS for the first time since 2013.

Tampa Bay started strong this season with a 14-4 mark, while dipping below the .500 mark only once after losing the opener as the Rays finished the first half at 52-39 following a pair of one-run home wins over the Yankees. The Rays’ longest losing streak was five games, which came in July, but a 14-3 run in late July through mid-August vaulted Tampa Bay to 71-50.

Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) joins Cole as another former Pirates’ pitcher that was traded and excelled in his next stop. Glasnow began 2019 on fire by winning six of his first seven decisions before sustaining a right forearm strain that landed him on the 60-day injured list. The right-hander didn’t pitch past the fifth inning in any of his four starts off the IL, as Glasnow receives the call for Game 1. Glasnow saw success against the Astros back in March 30 by yielding one earned run in five innings of work of a 3-1 victory at Tropicana Field.

Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) is the third Cy Young winner to take the mound in this series, as the Rays’ left-hander tries to avoid the “one-hit wonder” moniker. Snell put together a 21-5 record along with a miniscule 1.89 ERA in 2018, but injuries derailed the southpaw, including missing two months due to an elbow injury. Snell began the season by allowing five earned runs and three home runs in a 5-1 defeat to the Astros, while the Rays went 4-8 in his 12 road starts.

Tampa Bay owned identical 48-33 records at both home and on the road this season, but went 7-15 away from Tropicana Field against playoff teams. That number improved to 8-15 after winning at Oakland, but the Rays lost two of three games at Houston in late August, including a 15-1 drubbing in the opener.

Houston put together the best home record in baseball at 60-21, as the Astros posted a 27-6 mark at Minute Maid Park after the All-Star break. The Astros have won five of their last six playoff series openers since 2015, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Houston and Tampa Bay have never met in the postseason, while the Rays are seeking their first trip to the ALCS since winning the pennant back in 2008.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALDS - Twins at Yankees
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (New York 4-2, Over 5-1)

New York vs. Minnesota (Yankee Stadium)
May 3 - Yankees 6, Twins 3 (Favorite -150, Over 7 ½)
May 4 - Twins 7, Yankees 3 (Underdog +104, Over 9)
May 5 - Yankees 4, Twins 1 (Favorite -134, Under 8 ½)

Minnesota vs. New York (Target Field)
July 22 - Twins 8 Yankees 6 (Underdog +106, Over 11)
July 23 - Yankees 14 Twins 12 (Favorite -116, Over 10)
July 24 - Yankees 10 Twins 7 (Favorite -117, Over 11)

The only divisional series involving a pair of 100-win teams from the regular season takes place between the Yankees and Twins. New York (103-59) claimed its first American League East title since 2012 and its first 100-victory season since 2009, the last time the Bronx Bombers won a world championship.

The Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers all struggled to start the season and still finished with over 100 wins as New York actually began 8-10 before winning nine of 10 to sit at 17-11. New York began to separate itself from the rest of the pack in the division starting June 17 as the Yankees pulled off a 16-2 run and finished the first half at 57-31.

James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA) will get the ball in the series opener for the Yankees as the southpaw has caught fire at the right time. New York has won each of Paxton’s last 11 starts dating back to the beginning of August, while the Yankees have scored at least five runs in each of his past 10 appearances. Paxton faced the Twins at home in early May, as he lasted only three innings in a 6-3 win, while leaving early due to knee soreness.

Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) put together the most uneven season of his career, which included New York winning 11 of 12 starts from June through August. In that lone loss during that stretch, Tanaka was tagged for 12 runs in less than four innings of a 19-3 drubbing at Boston. The Yankees lost five of Tanaka’s first seven starts of the season, while New York alternated wins and losses in his final seven starts. Tanaka didn’t face the Twins this season, as the Yankees are looking to improve on a 3-1 record in his past four playoff appearances.

The Twins (101-61) were in control of the AL Central from May through the end of the season for their first division championship since 2010. Minnesota last won over 100 games way back in 1965, as that Twins’ squad lost in the World Series to Los Angeles. This year’s team notched 307 home runs, which set a Major League record for most long balls hit in a season. The next highest total belonged to the Yankees, who drilled 306 homers.

Five Twins’ sluggers went deep at least 30 times this season, led by Nelson Cruz’s 41 dingers. Right fielder Max Kepler (36), third baseman Miguel Sano (34), left fielder Eddie Rosario (32), and catcher Mitch Garver (31) round out the list, but Rosario and Cruz were the only two Twins to drive in more than 100 runs.

In 2018, the Twins won their 40th game on July 9 to improve to 40-48. In 2019, Minnesota grabbed its 40th victory on June 2 to move to 40-18. The Indians trimmed the Twins’ deficit to three games in late August, but Minnesota pulled away over the final month. The Twins went 13-4 to close out the season, while the Indians flamed out by losing their last five games to end a three-year playoff run.

Jose Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA) makes his first career playoff start for Minnesota as the Twins posted a 12-5 record in his 17 outings on the road. The Twins lost three of Berrios’ five starts in the role of an away underdog, as the right-hander didn’t square off against the Yankees this season. In 2018, New York tagged Berrios for five runs in four innings of an 8-3 victory in the Bronx, as he looks to give the Twins their first playoff win since 2004.

Dating back to 2003, the Twins have appeared in the playoffs six times. During this stretch, the Yankees have eliminated Minnesota on five occasions, including in back-to-back ALDS sweeps in 2009 and 2010. New York knocked out Minnesota in the 2017 Wild Card in the Bronx, 8-4, as the Twins seek their first playoff series victory since outlasting the Athletics in five games of the 2002 ALDS.

The season series was won by the Yankees, 4-2, as New York captured each of the two series. In probably the game of the year in Major League Baseball on July 23 at Target Field, the Twins built an 8-2 lead before the Yankees rallied back for a 10-9 advantage in the 8th inning. Minnesota scored two in the bottom of the 8th before New York grabbed back the lead in the top of the 9th with two runs. The Twins scratched a run across in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings tied at 12-12, but the Yankees posted two runs in the top of the 10th for the dramatic 14-12 triumph.

New York has lost its past three playoff series openers (not including the Wild Card round) since 2017, but all three defeats came away from the Bronx. The Yankees are listed at -240 to win this series at the Westgate Superbook (Bet $240 to win $100), while the Twins sit at +190 to move forward to the ALCS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 4

https://i.imgur.com/bhg2dYB.png (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/commercial-photography/)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

919ST LOUIS -920 ATLANTA
ST LOUIS are 14-20 SU (-13.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

921WASHINGTON -922 LA DODGERS
WASHINGTON is 75-45 SU (26.5 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

923MINNESOTA -924 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 44-19 SU (27 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

925TAMPA BAY -926 HOUSTON
TAMPA BAY is 12-1 SU (10.9 Units) in road games when playing on Friday in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 4

American League
Rays (97-66) @ Astros (107-55)
Glasnow is 0-0, 1.46 in four starts (12.1 IP) since coming off the IL; he stretched out to 66 pitches in his last start. Glasnow is 1-0, 1.80 in one start vs Houston- this is his first playoff start.

Verlander is 6-2, 1.94 in his last nine starts; he is 10-4, 3.17 in 20 starts vs Tampa Bay, and is 13-7, 3.19 in 25 playoff games (24 starts), 6-2, 2.83 in eight playoff starts for Houston.

Rays won the Wild Card game Wednesday; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.

Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 3-4 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won five of the seven games.

Twins (101-61) @ New York (103-59)
Berrios is 3-0, 2.08 in his last four starts; he is 1-2, 5.79 in three starts vs NYY, 0-2, 9.82 in two starts in the Bronx (allowed 8 runs in 7.1 IP). Berrios gave up three runs in three IP in his only postseason start, which was here two years ago.

Paxton is 10-1, 2.51 in his last 11 starts; he is 3-1, 2.27 in six starts vs Minnesota. Paxton missed his last start with a pulled glute muscle; this is his first playoff start.

Minnesota lost Wild Card game here in 2017, their only playoff appearance since 2010; they’re 2-4 vs NYY this year, with road team winning four of the six games. Average total in those six games was 13.5.

New York is in playoffs for 4th time in last seven years, after making it 17 of 18 years before that; they won three of last five trips to the ALDS.

National League
Cardinals (1-0) @ Braves
Flaherty is 4-2, 1.13 in his last eight starts; he is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts vs Atlanta. This is his first playoff appearance.

Foltynewicz is 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts; he is 3-4, 7.64 in seven starts vs St Louis and is 0-1, 7.50 in two playoff starts.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are 3-4 in seven games with Atlanta this year, 2-2 in this ballpark- they scored six runs in last two innings yesterday.

Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002. Atlanta’s seven relievers allowed six runs in Game 1, while getting only 14 outs.

Nationals @ Dodgers (1-0)
Strasburg threw three scoreless innings in relief Tuesday; he is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts, and is 3-5, 2.54 in 11 starts vs LA, 0-3, 2.08 in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Strasburg is 2-2, 0.41 in four career playoff games (3 starts).

Kershaw is 3-0, 2.79 in his last four games; he is 12-3, 2.23 in 17 games (16 starts) vs Washington, and is 9-10, 4.32 in 30 career playoff games (24 starts).

Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday, then got shut out last night; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game..

Dodgers are 5-3 vs Washington this year, 3-2 in games games played here; average total in the four games played in LA is 6.0. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 4

Trend Report

Houston Astros
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 24 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 17 of St. Louis's last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
NY Yankees is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 12 games at home
NY Yankees is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Yankees is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 4


Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 925-926
October 4, 2019 @ 2:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 15.414
Houston
(Verlander) 17.843
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-220
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-220); Under

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 919-920
October 4, 2019 @ 4:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 16.888
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 15.623
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-125); Under

Minnesota @ NY Yankees

Game 923-924
October 4, 2019 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Berrios) 14.818
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 16.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-185
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-185); Under

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 921-922
October 4, 2019 @ 9:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 16.653
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (92 - 71) at ATLANTA (97 - 66) - 4:37 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
FLAHERTY is 28-33 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLAHERTY is 14-18 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 97-66 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 18-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
ATLANTA is 74-52 (+11.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 17-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-34 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 92-71 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-21 (+8.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 86-75 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 36-21 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-55 (+5.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 25-19 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 46-60 (-31.6 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 31-45 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+1.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.080.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 1.757.
His team's record is 3-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-6. (-5.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (94 - 70) at LA DODGERS (107 - 56) - 9:37 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 176-150 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-28 (-17.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 107-95 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 42-45 (-17.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 28-11 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 60-22 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 76-34 (+23.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 146-105 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 38-33 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-3 (+1.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 0.930.
His team's record is 3-8 (-7.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-5. (-1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KERSHAW is 13-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 0.986.
His team's record is 15-3 (+9.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (+0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (101 - 61) at NY YANKEES (103 - 59) - 7:07 PM
JOSE BERRIOS (R) vs. JAMES PAXTON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 40-12 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 21-3 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 45-27 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 101-61 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 55-26 (+28.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 24-13 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 67-37 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-18 (+22.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+1.7 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.9 Units)

JOSE BERRIOS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BERRIOS is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.786.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

JAMES PAXTON vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
PAXTON is 3-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.074.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (97 - 66) at HOUSTON (107 - 55) - 2:05 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 187-138 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 88-75 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 116-69 (+29.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 77-70 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 39-23 (+24.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 69-44 (-7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 37-35 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-20 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 21-17 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-3 (+2.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VERLANDER is 10-4 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 14-6 (+5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-13. (-9.1 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs



Evangeline Downs - Race 2

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)



Claiming $5,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 6:00P


QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS ROCKIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. ROMANTIC HISPANIC: Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MAUVAIS BOJ: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. KATIE MAE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.



5

JESS ROCKIN

15/1


5/1




6

SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE

3/1


6/1




1

ROMANTIC HISPANIC

6/1


8/1




8

MAUVAIS BOJ

8/1


9/1




4

KATIE MAE

4/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

ROMANTIC HISPANIC

1


6/1

Average

71


72


4.3


0.0


0.0




2

JM VALIANT DASH

2


5/2

Slow

70


62


6.9


0.0


0.0




3

DASHING RED LEXUS

3


12/1

Slow

72


64


6.7


0.0


0.0




4

KATIE MAE

4


4/1

Fast

70


69


0.0


0.0


0.0




5

JESS ROCKIN

5


15/1

Fast

79


78


2.3


0.0


0.0




6

SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE

6


3/1

Fast

76


72


0.0


0.0


0.0




7

OUACHITA SPECIAL

7


5/1

Slow

64


63


6.6


0.0


0.0




8

MAUVAIS BOJ

8


8/1

Fast

73


69


3.2


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs



Indiana Downs - Race 4

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)



Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $36,500 • Post: 3:39P


FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Trailer. NATIVE LION is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NATIVE LION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. DRINKATTHECREEK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



4

NATIVE LION

4/1


5/2




3

DRINKATTHECREEK

7/5


4/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

LADY STELLA

5


2/1

Stalker

59


58


46.1


65.3


55.8




7

TWO CARROT RANSOM

7


12/1

Stalker

73


72


30.3


64.9


59.9




4

NATIVE LION

4


4/1

Trailer

79


76


73.0


73.9


70.9




3

DRINKATTHECREEK

3


7/5

Trailer

78


81


52.1


69.2


64.2




1

WANNA HAVE FUN

1


8/1

Trailer

66


64


49.3


60.7


50.7




2

GIVEUSTHISDAY

2


20/1

Trailer

71


69


26.5


55.0


42.5




6

HIP TANG

6


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


72


72.8


62.0


51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West



10/04/19, GPW, Race 1, 1.00 ET
5F [Turf] 00.54.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $29,000.
Claiming Price $35,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1 -5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Yei Yei
7/2
Lopez P
Azpurua. Jr. Leo
JFEL


098.7941
11
Poznan
8-1
Santos A
Arriagada Juan
SW


097.1698
1
Bolt
9/2
Zayas E J
Alvarado Juan




096.3444
9
Alaskan
3-1
Torres C A
Pinchin Jose




096.2974
10
Danzo
8-1
Vasquez M A
Negrete Javier




096.0181
4
Where Ya Goin Owen
10-1
Berrios H I
Sanchez Amador Merei
T


093.7984
8
El Solitario
15-1
Panici L
D'Angelo Francisco




093.7221
6
Think Like Tommy
10-1
Sanchez J
Antonucci Jena M.




092.8670
3
Fastdriven
15-1
Batista J A
Minguet Ramon




092.2263
5
Wild Wine
12-1
Montalvo C
D'Angelo Francisco




091.5189
2
Into Magarayquaza
12-1
Zapico S
Mejia Jaime
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


11
41.40
1.16
34.62
45
130
[All Surfaces] Best Workouts


1
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


9
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


10
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


4
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


8
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


6
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


3
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


5
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


2
35.00
1.53
39.39
13
33
[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3


If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Yei Yei
7/2
Lopez P
Azpurua. Jr. Leo
JEWL


098.0283
1
Bolt
9/2
Zayas E J
Alvarado Juan




097.4232
11
Poznan
8-1
Santos A
Arriagada Juan
SF


096.5203
4
Where Ya Goin Owen
10-1
Berrios H I
Sanchez Amador Merei
T


095.8112
9
Alaskan
3-1
Torres C A
Pinchin Jose




094.2289
10
Danzo
8-1
Vasquez M A
Negrete Javier




093.5275
8
El Solitario
15-1
Panici L
D'Angelo Francisco




093.0805
5
Wild Wine
12-1
Montalvo C
D'Angelo Francisco




092.7509
6
Think Like Tommy
10-1
Sanchez J
Antonucci Jena M.




092.5257
3
Fastdriven
15-1
Batista J A
Minguet Ramon




090.5320
2
Into Magarayquaza
12-1
Zapico S
Mejia Jaime
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
43.40
1.26
40.24
33
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today


1
43.40
1.26
40.24
33
82
[All Dirt] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today


11
3.60
1.90
100.00
2
2
[All Surfaces] *Actual Post Greater Than 9 And Distance 5f or 5 1/2f


4
5.00
1.50
60.00
3
5
[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5


10
3.60
1.90
100.00
2
2
[All Surfaces] *Actual Post Greater Than 9 And Distance 5f or 5 1/2f


5
5.00
1.50
60.00
3
5
[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5


3
5.00
1.50
60.00
3
5
[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5


2
5.00
1.50
60.00
3
5
[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:21pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 BIG DELILAH (ML=10/1)
#6 TOP PICK (ML=6/1)


BIG DELILAH - On September 26th this filly shipped in to win and looks good right back. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. This horse probably isn't going to sit off the pace. She should bust out of the gate and be one of the first to hit that tight turn. Watch for her in the stretch. TOP PICK - Jockey jumped on this filly's back for the first ride on Sep 14th. Should be in touch with the horse even better today. Jockey and trainer do well when they partner up. Delgado and Grams have been reliable together. Just missed hitting the board on September 14th at Charles Town. With decent morning odds in this event, she has my interest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AZZURRA (ML=6/5), #7 LOVE HAPPY (ML=5/2), #3 MESMERIZINGPEGASUS (ML=8/1),

AZZURRA - This filly is always in the mix, but just doesn't finish on top. Tough to wager on her on the win end. All kinds of crazy zip on board for this contest. No chance for this early speedball. LOVE HAPPY - This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed fig last out. She shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that figure. MESMERIZINGPEGASUS - If today's contest shapes up right, all the front runners will force a pretty mean speed duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#1 BIG DELILAH is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Keeneland

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $77000 Class Rating: 102

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NOT WON A GRADED SWEEPSTAKE IN 2019. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $58,000 TWICE IN 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $60,000 IN 2019 ALLOWED 4 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 POLE SETTER 4/1




# 1 KNICKS GO 4/1




# 3 REGALLY IRISH 10/1




I have to consider POLE SETTER here. Has been moving strongly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Will likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the midpoint of the contest. Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been solid - 88 avg - of late. KNICKS GO - Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Very solid returns have been scored by bettors using this jockey and trainer duo as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fresno

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 SPEEDY RIDE 12/1




# 1 CHANGING IMAGE 5/1




# 4 SHINER'S CODE 8/1




SPEEDY RIDE is the best wager in this contest and could score at a price in here. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good handicapping angle. This horse ranks at the top in this field of horses. Has to be given a shot versus this field displaying decent figures recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 64 under similar conditions. Monroy has recent ROI figures which make this entrant a very good wager. CHANGING IMAGE - Might best this group here, showing very good figures of late. Has quite good early lick and should fare soundly against this group of animals. SHINER'S CODE - He looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Looks decent for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park



10/04/19, SA, Race 2, 1.30 PT
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.44.00 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Claiming Price $32,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2019
$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) - $0.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) - $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $0.50 Jackpot Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
5
Winning Element
4-1
Bejarano R
O'Neill Doug F.
FW


098.6769
6
Caymans Cobra
5-1
Meche D J
Baltas Richard
EL


097.0745
7
Van Cortlandt
6-1
Arroyo. Jr. N
Miyadi Steven




096.3654
4
Very Very Stella
5/2
Garcia M
Truman Eddie




096.3373
3
Eldritch (IRE)
10-1
Espinoza A
Glatt Mark




096.2861
1
Tizzarunner
5-1
Fuentes R
McCarthy Michael W.
S


096.2247
8
Buckstopper Kit
2-1
Cedillo A
D'Amato Philip
JC


095.8684
2
Lifeline
12-1
Velez J I
Sadler John W.
T


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


5
77.80
1.25
33.97
53
156
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


6
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


7
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


4
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


3
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


1
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


8
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


2
76.20
1.42
34.44
31
90
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Less Than Today


If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
5
Winning Element
4-1
Bejarano R
O'Neill Doug F.
W


098.8795
6
Caymans Cobra
5-1
Meche D J
Baltas Richard
EL


097.9706
7
Van Cortlandt
6-1
Arroyo. Jr. N
Miyadi Steven




097.7847
3
Eldritch (IRE)
10-1
Espinoza A
Glatt Mark
S


097.3330
4
Very Very Stella
5/2
Garcia M
Truman Eddie
F


096.8371
1
Tizzarunner
5-1
Fuentes R
McCarthy Michael W.




096.6738
2
Lifeline
12-1
Velez J I
Sadler John W.
T


096.4282
8
Buckstopper Kit
2-1
Cedillo A
D'Amato Philip
JC


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


5
55.20
1.18
20.13
31
154
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey


6
103.00
1.28
21.43
39
182
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


7
95.20
1.32
40.82
60
147
[All Dirt] Not Third Race After 45 Days Off


3
103.00
1.28
21.43
39
182
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


4
95.20
1.32
40.82
60
147
[All Dirt] Not Third Race After 45 Days Off


1
55.20
1.18
20.13
31
154
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Different Jockey


2
103.00
1.28
21.43
39
182
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent


8
103.00
1.28
21.43
39
182
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 MINE THE COIN (ML=2/1)
#6 IMPUNITY (ML=9/5)


MINE THE COIN - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This speed freak should benefit from this shorter trip. This beautiful animal is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this gelding in your speculating today. IMPUNITY - Note that although this gelding finished second in his last race, he was well ahead of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. This gelding's last fig is lofty enough to score here, I'll bet on him right back this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CAVARADOSSI (ML=7/2), #2 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK (ML=6/1), #5 PISTOLEIRO (ML=8/1),

CAVARADOSSI - Improbable for this horse to do much running with no recent success in a sprint event. Didn't show much last time. Probably won't do much running in today's event. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK - This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance contests. Not easy to bet on him in this race. PISTOLEIRO - Too far back on February 24th for me to back at the probable odds in today's sprint race. Not normally the kind of horse one plays off of any type of very long layoff.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MINE THE COIN - Finished a disappointing sixth at Saratoga on Sep 2nd. But that was in the slop. Expect much better in today's event.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 MINE THE COIN is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

MLB & CFB picks 10/4

100* Over 8.5 Yanks/Twins
100* Dodgers -155
100* New Mexico +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, October 4, 2019


10/04 06:37 PM PT / 9:37 PM ET

MLB (921) WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS (922) LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Take: (922) LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Reason: Your free play for Friday, October 4, 2019 is in the MLB playoff contest between the Washington Nationals and the LA Dodgers. Your free play is on the Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: TAMPA BAY/HOUSTON OVER the total of 7 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Friday's Free Selection: Toronto/Columbus under 6 1/2 goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins Roz's FRIDAY, October 4, 2019 Free Pick
10/04 06:37 PM MLB (921) WASHINGTON NATIONALS (S STRASBURG - R) VS (922) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (C KERSHAW - L)
Take : Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Washington Capitols + 110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Friday's Free Selection: Philadelphia Flyers - 120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Free Pick: the Minnesota/NY Yankees Game OVER 8½ Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play Friday, October 4, 2019
10/04 04:07 PM MLB (923) MINNESOTA TWINS (J BERRIOS - R) VS (924) NEW YORK YANKEES (J PAXTON - L)
Take : Yankees

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Friday : ST LOUIS/ATLANTA UNDER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Friday

St Louis/Atlanta over 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Friday's Free Pick: Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 6 1/2 (CFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports Free Play: NY Yankees -225 Series Winner

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

FREE play FRI: Wash Cappitals +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 10/4/2019 MLB TAMPA BAY UNDER 7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Friday: NY YANKEES/MINNESOTA OVER the total of 8½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Friday: Toronto Maple Leafs - 150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Friday: New Mex/San Jose St UNDER 67

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tony’s *5 Star MLB free pick

St. Louis vs. Atlanta, 10/04/2019 16:37 EDT

Money Line: -126 St. Louis

Sportsbook:
TopBet

Fp: after a game 1 upset Atlanta is in a must win situation to avoid a 0-2 start at home before heading to St. Louis for 2 games . To much pressure for the young braves and I think St. Louis wins again for my mlb free pick

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

Brian’s 9* MLB Absolute Cover

Minnesota vs. NY Yankees, 10/04/2019 19:07 EDT

Point Spread: -1½/+105 NY Yankees

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Yankees have been laying low for about a month or more here on cruise control heading for this very day. James Paxton off a solid year for pitching in a hitter friendly park will look to make a name for himself in front of the Bronx crowd. Yankees have dominated the Twins over the years in the MLB playoffs winning in 2003,2004,2009,2010 and then beating them in a wild wild card game in 2017. You can not lay the juice in this one but we can go and lay the -1.5.

Invests 9 units on the Yankees here -1.5 rotation #924

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) MLB – Yankees -185
2. Gameday Network NHL – Islanders -125
3. VegasSI.com NHL – Blackhawks +105
4. Vegas Line Crushers MLB – Braves under 8.5
5. Sports Action 365 NHL – Golden Knights -120
6. Point Spread Report MLB – Dodgers -150
7. Lou Panelli NHL – Blue Jackets over 6.5
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino NHL – Devils -145
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club MLB – Braves +110
10. William E. Stockton MLB – Yankees -185
11. Vincent Pioli NHL – Blackhawks +105
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NHL – Devils under 6.5
13. SCORE MLB – Astros over 7.5
14. East Coast Line Movers NHL – Islanders -125
15. Tony Campone MLB – Astros -1.5
16. Chicago Sports Group MLB – Braves under 8.5
17. Hollywood Sportsline NHL – Golden Knights -120
18. VIP Action NHL – Blackhawks under 6.5
19. South Beach Sports MLB – Astros over 7.5
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission NHL – Devils -145
21. NY Players Club MLB – Braves +110
22. Fred Callahan NHL – Golden Knights -120
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club NHL – Islanders under 5.5
24. Michigan Sports MLB – Astros over 7.5
25. National Consensus Report MLB – Braves +110