Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 5 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-5

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-29-1
Against the Spread 31-43-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 33-42-1
Against the Spread 26-48-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-40

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+11, ML +425) at Chiefs, 19-13
Raiders (+6.5, ML +250) vs. Bears, 24-21
Broncos (+4.5, ML +200) at Chargers, 20-13
Packers (+3.5, ML +160) at Cowboys, 34-24
Bills (+3, ML +160) at Titans, 14-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Bengals, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) at Redskins, 33-7
Eagles (-14) vs. Jets, 31-6
Vikings (-6) at Giants, 28-10
Texans (-4) vs. Falcons, 53-32
Panthers (-3) vs. Jaguars, 34-27
Saints (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 31-24

Chief Concern

-- The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to mow over the Indianapolis Colts (+11, ML +425) at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football. The Colts entered the game with several defensive backs banged up, and other falling like flies in the first half. But, cliche' totally intended, that's why they play the games. The Colts fought to a 13-10 halftime lead, they held on in a scoreless third quarter, and actually pushed their lead to 19-10 before the Chiefs booted a field goal in the fourth quarter for the low-scoring 19-13 road victory.

The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, an NFL record, but that's all over now. QB Patrick Mahomes also dinged up his already nagging ankle injury, and his lack of mobility made him look rather mortal. And the lack of discipline, racking up 11 penalties for 125 yards, certainly didn't help matters either. The Chiefs also lost WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens, DLs Chris Jones and Xavier Williams to injuries, too. Still, as heavy favorites, they should have been able to overcome. They didn't, and that's a concern going forward.

Jekyll And Hyde Texans

-- The Houston Texans rolled the Atlanta Falcons 53-23 at NRG Stadium, which is how many predicted the Texans offense would look. QB Deshaun Watson finally broke out, and the Texans were on fire in all facets of the game. But then why did they score just 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers in a 16-10 loss at home, especially against a backup QB? The week before they went on the road and won 27-20 at Los Angeles Chargers, following up a 13-12 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in one of those weird odd-week, even-week patterns. They're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if that continues next Sunday on the road against the Chiefs. Hmm.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Kansas City Chiefs (55.5) battle, and as mentioned, it didn't even come close. In fact, the Sunday Night Football game has hit the 'under' in all six games, with the underdog 4-2 SU/ATS. File that away for next Sunday's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chargers.

The second-highest total on the board was the Falcons-Texans (50) game, and Houston took care of the number themselves. The next highest total was the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) battle on Thursday night, a 30-29 win in favor of the Seahawks. Thursdays are the night of the underdog, going 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS through the first four installments, with the 'over' cashing in the past two.

The next highest total is the Monday Night Football tilt between the Cleveland Browns-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, still to be determined.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (39) game, the only one with a total in the 30's. The Bills, who have won three straight away games for the first time since the 2004 season, is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of their games so far. It might not be pretty, but they're winning.

The next lowest total was in the London battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Oakland Raiders-Chicago Bears (40) game wasn't a track meet, but it did end up going 'over'. It was just 17-0 at half in favor of the Raiders, but the Bears threw up 21 points in the third quarter to help the total inch over the finish line at 'over'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 split in the first two primetime games of Week 5, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Browns-49ers (47.5) still pending. The 'over' is 4-11 (26.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Giants RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) exited early, as the replacement for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) needed medical attention of his own. Not good.

-- Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was forced out of action, leaving undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges to finish up the game. He did well enough to steer the team to overtime, but they lost to the Ravens 26-23. Cue the Colin Kaepernick talk in the Steel City.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers and Buccaneers lock horns in London next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. They already played on Thursday night in Week 2, with the Bucs winning 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, covering as 6 1/2-point underdogs while hitting the 'under' (48). That game was the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). Since then it's QB Kyle Allen starting, going 3-0 SU/ATS in three starts in place of Supercam. In this series, the 'under' has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the underdog going 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings.

-- The Bengals and Ravens will tangle in Charm City, with Cincinnati still searching for its first win of the season. While the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games inside the AFC North Division, they failed to cover at Pittsburgh two weeks ago in a blowout loss, and most of the stat above was with a team which was NFL caliber, not this current version of the Bengals. The Ravens have failed to cover in five straight games at home, so something's gotta give. Remember, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- In another divisional battle, the 49ers and Rams lock horns in Southern California. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the past six NFC West battles, while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five against NFC West foes. That includes a narrow cover as 1 1/2-point underdogs in Seattle, losing 30-29 last Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in five of the past six meetings in L.A., four of the past five meetings overall and the Rams are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven in this series.

-- On Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers square off at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay is looking to carry over momentum after a 34-24 win at Dallas. The Lions are well rested, coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven following a week off. The Lions have cashed in four of the past five on the road, while covering five of the past seven appearances on a Monday. The Packers have covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC North, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on Monday. In this series, while the Lions have covered four in a row, the favorite has hit in 19 of the past 26. The over is also an impressive 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Close Calls - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 5 of the NFL regular season.

Seattle Seahawks (-1½) 30, Los Angeles Rams 29 (48½): The Thursday night NFC West clash lived up to its billing with a back-and-forth contest. The Seahawks led by one at halftime, briefly opening as a slight underdog but listed commonly a slight favorite at -1½ most of the week. The Rams had two 75-yard touchdown drives in the third quarter surrounding a short-field Seattle score but Los Angeles missed on a two-point conversion attempt to lead by just five. Early in the fourth quarter field goals were exchanged before Russell Wilson led a lengthy drive for the Seahawks and found the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:28 to go. The two-point conversion try loomed large on the spread result but DK Metcalf was unable to haul it in, leaving Seattle up by just one. The Rams had plenty of time to get into field goal range but Seattle challenged an incomplete pass and it was ruled that it was narrowly a wild interception from Tedric Thompson, a deflected pass that was juggled several times but was kept off the turf. Seattle was not able to pick up a first down to finish off the game however and it appeared that the Rams would sneak away with the win, reaching field goal range only to have Greg Zuerlein miss from 44 yards.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (44): The Ravens jumped out to an early 10-point lead but Pittsburgh took advantage of two interceptions to add a six points before the break to trail by four, getting close to the home underdog spread that mostly fluctuated between +3 and +3½. Pittsburgh scored first after halftime after another Lamar Jackson interception but Baltimore quickly answered with a field goal to knot the game at 20-20. Mason Rudolph was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers were down to undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges at quarterback. He did enough to lead Pittsburgh to another field goal with 2:37 remaining but Baltimore answered as Justin Tucker was good from 48 to force overtime, a kick that also sealed the ‘over’. The Ravens were forced to punt starting the extra session and Pittsburgh appeared to be on the move but JuJu Smith-Schuster lost the ball after a solid gain, with Baltimore narrowly recovering the fumble in bounds, effectively already in field goal range. A conservative approach followed as the Ravens picked up only six yards and Tucker hit from 46 for the win, though for many on the Ravens it wasn’t quite enough.

Oakland Raiders (+7) 24, Chicago Bears 21 (40): After a scoreless opening quarter in London the Raiders delivered 17 points in the second quarter for a commanding underdog edge on a line that climbed back up dramatically by Sunday, opening at -6 before falling as low as -4½ and rising all the back to -6½ and -7 by kickoff. The Bears suddenly also climbed back into the game in the third quarter taking advantage of good field position to score three touchdowns, going in front 21-17. The Raiders were on the doorstep to go back in front but Chicago got a fumble recovery near the goal line and the Bears were able to work their way out of danger into Oakland territory. Points weren’t added however but then it was the Raiders who were then pinned deep. A running into the kicker penalty gave Oakland a retry on a punt that would have left the Bears near midfield. Now facing 4th-and-1, the fake punt was on and Eddie Harris picked up the first down but appeared to fumble. On review the Raiders kept the ball and Derek Carr would go on to complete the 97-yard scoring drive to put Oakland back in front. Chicago crossed midfield on a late possession, but Chase Daniel wound up intercepted as Oakland moved to 3-2.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 23 (46½): These winless squads kicked a lot of field goals early on as Arizona held a 13-9 lead through three quarters and the ‘under’ sat in good shape. The Cardinals added three more to lead by seven and seemed to put the game away with a 37-yard touchdown run with about seven minutes remaining for a 14-point lead. Andy Dalton led a 79-yard scoring drive around the four-minute mark to get the Bengals back within seven and the Cardinals weren’t able to gain a first down while only running off 27 seconds. Dalton hit Tajh Boyd for two big plays and suddenly Cincinnati was in the end zone. The Bengals opted to kick for the tie rather than go for the win with the touchdown right at the two-minute warning, a score that was also extremely relevant for those on a total that hovered in-between 46 and 47. There was too much time left for the Cardinals as Kyler Murray led his first NFL game-winning drive using his arm and his legs to set-up Zane Gonzalez for another field goal for the win.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 27 (41): The Panthers took a 28-17 lead early in the third quarter but the Jaguars would fight back adding a touchdown to trail by just four heading into the final frame on a spread that was commonly +3 or +3½. The Panthers weren’t able to put the game away despite two chances to add points, missing a field goal and then getting stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 5-yard-line. Jacksonville settled for a field goal to trail by one with about six minutes remaining but the Panthers seemed to close the door with a 59-yard touchdown run. Incredibly the extra-point went right however as the margin stayed at seven. Jacksonville fumbled near midfield ahead of the two-minute warning but still wound up getting another shot, eventually reaching the Carolina 24-yard-line before running out of time.

Buffalo Bills (+3½) 14, Tennessee Titans 7 (39): Tied 7-7 through three the Bills turned in a 77-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter surrounded by the third and fourth missed field goals of the day from Titans kicker Cairo Santos. The Titans would get a late possession but punted with about four minutes to go and didn’t get another chance as the Bills escaped with a win in a matchup that could loom large late in the season in the AFC wild card picture.

Denver Broncos (+4½) 20, Los Angeles Chargers 13 (46): A 14-0 first quarter lead offered great promise for the underdog Broncos and that edge was pushed to 17-0 with a field goal following up a missed field goal from the Chargers. Los Angeles also fumbled for a touchback on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line in the final play before halftime. Most of the third quarter went by harmlessly but winless teams often find ways to give their opponents a shot. Joe Flacco wound up intercepted at his own 7-yard-line to seemingly put the Chargers right back in the game but Philip Rivers returned the favor with another red zone turnover. Denver’s defense wouldn’t get a shot to prevent the next score however with Desmond King returning a punt 68 yards for a Chargers touchdown near the end of the third quarter. Joe Flacco took a costly 3rd down sack on the next Broncos drive to push the field goal attempt back and Brandon McManus would miss. A few plays later the Chargers added three to wind up within one score. The Broncos were eventually able to hit a field goal late in the fourth to finally put the game away for win #1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Sunday, October 13

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 251-252
October 13, 2019 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.923
Tampa Bay
131.715
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-2); Under

New Orleans @ Jacksonville

Game 259-260
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.421
Jacksonville
130.855
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+1 1/2); Over

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 257-258
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.622
Kansas City
136.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Cleveland

Game 255-256
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.689
Cleveland
129.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

Game 261-262
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.274
Minnesota
138.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-3); Under

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
123.261
Baltimore
131.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 12
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+12); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 263-264
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
119.311
Miami
111.792
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ LA Rams

Game 265-266
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.568
LA Rams
140.778
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-4); Under

Atlanta @ Arizona

Game 267-268
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
127.188
Arizona
122.304
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-1 1/2); Under

Dallas @ NY Jets

Game 269-270
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.894
NY Jets
119.215
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-8 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Denver

Game 271-272
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.931
Denver
133.658
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2); Over

Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers

Game 273-274
October 13, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
132.968
LA Chargers
128.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6


Sunday, October 13

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CAROLINA (3 - 2) vs. TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 84-55 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 5) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 2) at MINNESOTA (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 5) at MIAMI (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-97 ATS (-43.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
MIAMI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 0) at LA RAMS (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-190 ATS (-67.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (1 - 3 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 118-156 ATS (-53.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (1 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report


Sunday, October 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 23 games at home
Cleveland is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 14 games
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-10-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Washington
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
Washington is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
LA Rams is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
LA Rams is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-14-1 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Denver is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 15 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 16-7-1 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 6 opening odds: Chiefs' stunning loss, injuries could invite Texans cash
Patrick Everson

An AFC clash among two of the NFL’s more dynamic quarterbacks highlights the Week 6 schedule. We check in on the opening line and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

Kansas City entered the Week 5 Sunday night game as one of just three unbeaten teams. But the Chiefs exited Sunday night no longer unblemished, stunningly losing outright to Indianapolis 19-10 as 10.5-point home favorites. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes played the whole game despite hurting his left ankle.

Houston has been a little erratic over the first five weeks, but certainly got its offense in order on Sunday. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) hung a 50-plus burger on Atlanta, scoring 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home favorites.

“The line came off the board when the Colts-Chiefs game started, and the number may drift toward 7 after the Chiefs’ loss tonight,” Murray said. “Kansas City is a little banged up right now.”

That said, Murray doesn't believe Mahomes' ankle will be an issue this week.

"I think he's fine," Murray said. "It's not his fault that Andy Reid made that horrendous fourth-and-1 call, and that the Chiefs couldn't stop the Colts on the ground."

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

Los Angeles enters this game off a mini-bye, having played in the Week 5 Thursday nighter, but Sean McVay’s troops have also lost two in a row. After inexplicably giving up 55 points at home to Tampa Bay, the Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) fell just short at Seattle 30-29 as 1.5-point underdogs.

San Francisco (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) joins New England as the only unbeatens, but the Niners still have Week 5 work to do, hosting Cleveland under the Monday night lights. The 49ers had a bye in Week 4, following a 24-20 home win over Pittsburgh as 6-point faves.

“This is suddenly a critical game for the Rams, who could be in danger of falling back in the NFC West race with a loss,” Murray said. “You could see this number creep up if the 49ers struggle Monday night.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Philadelphia won and cashed its last two games to catch a stumbling Dallas unit atop the NFC East. After a solid Week 4 win at Green Bay, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) rolled over the hapless New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Meanwhile, Minnesota bounced back from a sluggish losing effort at Chicago by beating the other New York squad. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“Considering how wide open the NFC is right now, this game could be a potential NFC title game preview or a matchup of two teams that miss the postseason,” Murray said. “As Philly gets healthy, it could be the best team in the conference.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

As the Yes/No proposition bet of whether Miami goes winless continues to gain traction, this week represents its best chance so far to get a victory. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) got a much-needed bye in Week 5, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points.

Washington is also mired in a winless season at 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS), suffering double-digit losses in four consecutive games. In Week 5, the Redskins took an early 7-0 lead against New England and trailed just 12-7 at halftime, but never scored again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“I don’t anticipate much handle here,” Murray said. “Both teams are better off losing. The difference is the Dolphins are trying to be bad. The Redskins are just this incompetent.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

Week of October 7th

Mixed results so far from last week's isolated scenarios, as the 'unders' for teams coming off 40-point performances took a hit with a 2-1 O/U record.

Going against those 40-point performers against the spread the following week as brought a 2-1 ATS record officially, but if you were willing to just take Seattle ML instead of the “dreaded” hook on -1.5, a betting record of 3-0 is possible.

And Week 6 this year is the first time we've got more then two teams on a bye week, and the first time we get a division rematch game as well (Carolina/Tampa Bay). It's not a true home-and-home since they will be playing in London, England, but you know the new-look Panthers with Kyle Allen under center would love to get some revenge.

It's these divisional games that become the focus for this week's piece though,as there are four of them in total – Carolina/Tampa, Cincinnati/Baltimore, San Francisco/LA Rams, and Detroit/Green Bay – and they've all got interesting aspects involved from both the specific and broad view.

Who's Hot

Road teams in NFL Divisional games
15-9 ATS – 11-6 ATS as road underdogs of any number

Not the greatest run in terms of it being 75%-plus or something like that, but these early season division games have been dominated by the road team. A blind 15-9 ATS overall is quite the run in general, and considering road teams only had a losing week in divisional games back in Week 4 (2-4 ATS for road teams), it's something that's proved to be an angle to go back to.

Breaking it down to road underdogs record as well is important because three of the four divisional games this week have road dogs listed, and all are currently getting more than a FG. Depending on how early action shakes out over the next 48 hours or so, these division road dogs could see their spreads drop even lower.

Detroit has already seen a bit of support for their MNF game in Green Bay next week, seeing an opener of 5.5 get bet down to +5 and even some +4.5's, while the initial line on San Francisco that's sitting in the same range, is more stagnant simply because the 49ers still have to play this week. A strong outing from San Fran tonight and you know that number will drop on them next week.

However, the winless Bengals have seen their line go the other way, as it's all been early Baltimore love next week. The Bengals looked awful on MNF against the Steelers, were the first team to lose to Arizona, and have still yet to win a game. I get it, tough to like a team like that and that initial move could be more of simply getting ahead of the masses in general, but I'm not sure what there is to like about Baltimore's spot laying all those points?

It's the third straight division game for the Ravens, after getting waxed by Cleveland, and escaping Pittsburgh with a win. Eventually all that emotional energy is tough to replace, and even though it is the Bengals coming to visit, having Cincinnati winless has to take some of the fear of losing this game out of the equation for Baltimore. The Ravens also have a road trip to play a very good Seattle team on deck, and given the success of division road dogs this year, that sure does look like a lot of points to cover for the Ravens next week.

Who's Not

Betting 'overs' in Divisional games
6-18 O/U in 2019

A run like this for 'under' bettors in divisional affairs isn't all that surprising given the general strength of 'unders' cashing in general this year, but to hit at a 75% clip in a broad isolated scenario like division games is quite the run.

Now this would be a run I'd be a bit more hesitant to blindly ride, as Week 5 saw division games finish with a 3-1 O/U record as some regression to the mean was bound to be on the horizon. We still may have not seen the full brightness of said horizon which makes these 'unders' a little harder to back without digging deeper. But having a place to start is never a bad thing.

With the Carolina/Tampa game actually being a division rematch game already, and being played in London, it will be interesting to see where this total shakes out. Early money has been all about the 'over' as an early 46.5 now sits at 48.5, as the trend of those overseas games being an 'over' bettor's haven continues to have some validity after the Raiders and Bears sailed 'over' their number on Sunday.

But there is film on these two teams already, and most of it wasn't pretty. Granted, Carolina won't be having Cam Newton under center this time around, and the players definitely want to put on a show for their overseas fans, but if this number continues to climb, all of that can still happen and the 'under' can still cash. Like the Ravens ATS early support, this quick move does have some signs of simply being one that's trying to stay ahead of the masses, so keep your eye out for that as the week goes on.

As far as the other possible 'unders' go in divisional games in Week 6, if you are of the mindset of the Ravens being in a potential flat spot because of level of opponent, fatigue, or otherwise, there is a case to look low on that total as well. Three straight divisional 'overs' would be quite the new feat for this Ravens franchise, and if the Bengals are going to hang around and either win SU and/or ATS, chances are with the limited offensive weapons they've got, it's not going to be a high-scoring game. But like Carolina/Tampa, this Bengals/Ravens game has already seen the total get bumped as well.

With the 49ers/Rams game still in limbo as Week 5 finishes, the Detroit/Packers game has also seen an early bump in the total too. Green Bay has started to find things offensively while taking a predictable step back defensively these past two weeks, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

That initial move does make a lot of sense for sure, but depending how high that total gets a week from now, this division 'under' trend is worth monitoring.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 6 odds: Timing is everything for Eagles-Vikings spread
Jason Logan

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

As we head into Week 6 and the onset of autumn cools off those northern states, more outside factors – beyond action at the sportsbook – like mounting injuries and bad weather will be impacting the odds and the line adjustments.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (-6.5, 41)

The Steelers could be down to their third-string QB for this Sunday night trip to Los Angeles after second-stringer Mason Rudolph was knocked out cold versus the Ravens in Week 5 and remains in concussion protocol as of the start of the week.

Pittsburgh was left with undrafted QB Devlin Hodges as the passing option and that has the Steelers sitting at +6.5 while the betting world waits. With the way the total is starting to tick down – 43.5 to 41 points – it would seem that early Over/Under action is expecting the worst for Pittsburgh’s QB situation.

The Bolts are back home off a rough loss at Denver last Sunday. Los Angeles has just two wins on the year: one in overtime versus the Colts in Week 1 (a game it should have lost if not for bad kicking from Indianapolis) and one over Miami in Week 4 (so, you know…).

But if you believe in the Chargers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss, and given the QB questions in the Steel City, you can grab the home team under the key number of a touchdown. It’s already flashing to Bolts -7 at some books, so make sure you get the fave as low as you can.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3, 43.5)

It would seem the Eagles’ win over a terrible New York team holds more weight with the betting public than the Vikings’ win over a terrible New York team. At least, that’s what the early adjustment to the vig for this matchup says.

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

This is a tough game to handicap. The Eagles went into Lambeau and took a game from the Packers in the second half, but put in a less-than-impressive effort versus the Jets, relying on two defensive scores to make a 17-6 win look much better as a 31-6 victory.

The Vikes are a tougher test on defense than Gang Green and showed they could actually put force behind the football, let go, and have someone catch it before it hit the ground (also known as a pass) in Week 5. If you’re putting your money on Minny, wait and see if you can get -2.5 – which is starting to bubble up at some books.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

Oh boy, the Browns might just stink again. A week removed from torching the Baltimore defense for 40 points, Cleveland crapped out a lonely field goal in a Monday nightmare at San Francisco, losing 31-3.

It was a tough spot for the Browns, playing back-to-back road games and three away contests in four week, and now the team comes back to Cleveland, where it last left fans wanting after a dismal 13-point effort in a loss to the Rams in Week 3.

Baker Mayfield was a dismal 8 for 22 for just 100 passing yards, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice (one lost) in the loss to San Francisco. Now, the Browns host Seattle on a short week versus an opponent who has enjoyed a mini bye after winning at home versus L.A. on Thursday.

Seattle is nowhere near its defensive prowess of years past, but the offense can pound the football and chew up the clock. Cleveland allowed the Niners to run for 275 yards on 40 carries and dominate TOP for nearly 38 minutes. The Seahawks handed off 43 times against Los Angeles and hogged the ball for more than 35 minutes in Week 5. That same approach versus the Browns could keep the clock ticking and scoring at a minimum.

If you like a low-scoring finish in Ohio this Sunday, jump on the Under 47.5 as the public will have a nasty smell in their nose after watching the Browns bomb on Monday.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 49 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

On the other side of that Monday Night Football finale in Week 5 are the 49ers, who jumped all over the Browns and didn’t stop until the whistle blew on their 31-3 victory. San Francisco is getting it done on both sides of the ball, especially on offense where they now average 31.8 points per game – second in the NFL.

The Rams are slow out of the blocks this season (only team in the NFL without a first-quarter touchdown) but seem to shake that slumber in the second half. Los Angeles did just that against Seattle last Thursday, putting up 16 points in the final 30 minutes, and Jared Goff is notorious for his home/road production, boasting a 96.3 QBR in Los Angeles versus an 89.3 QBR as a visitor.

This number is already rising, moving from 48.5 to 49, and some books dealing 49.5. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 50-plus total by the time this one closes Sunday afternoon. Regardless of that movement, you can’t discount the 49ers defense (ranked second in total yards) or a Rams stop unit that despite allowing some bigger numbers, is giving up 5.4 yards per play to foes (10th lowest).

For those leaning Under, wait it out and see how high the public pushes this one before buying a low-scoring – or lower-scoring – finish between these NFC West rivals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Bills 4-1 ATS
t1. Packers 4-1 ATS
t1. Rams 4-1 ATS
t4. Niners 3-1 ATS
t4. Lions 3-1 ATS
t4. Colts 3-1-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Dolphins 0-4 ATS
t31. Redskins 1-4 ATS
t31. Falcons 1-4 ATS
t31. Ravens 1-4 ATS
t28. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t28. Chargers 1-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 13

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY - at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Teams have split spread decisions the past three seasons. Bucs are “under” 7-4 last eleven games, and the “unders” are 5-1 last six meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals are a surprising 5-1 their last six as dog (even after recent Steelers loss on Monday). Ravens 1-6-1 vs. spread last eight at M&T Bank Stadium. Bengals have covered last three meetings.
Tech Edge: Bengals, based on team trends.


SEATTLE at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Russell Wilson is a dog here, note 6-1-1 mark for Seahawks in role since LY, 19-7-1 since entering league in 2012. Hawks also 7-1 vs. spread last eight on road. Browns no covers last three at home.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.


NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 7-3 “under” last ten away. Meanwhile, Jags are “under” 6-3 last nine at home. J’ville 3-1 vs. line with Minshew at QB, and 4-1 as home dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


PHILADELPHIA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 5-1 vs. spread last six at home (compared to 2-5 vs. number last seven away). Birds 6-13 last 19 vs. spread reg season, 2-2 last four as dog. Zimmer “under” 17-5-1 since late in 2017 campaign.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team trends and “totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Something has to give here! Teams are combined 1-8 vs. line between them this season. Miami “under” 8-4 last 12 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Note that Niners had covered five straight in series prior to last season when Rams covered both. SF has won and covered first two away TY after 2-6 road spread mark on road LY. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series. Rams only 2-6 last eight vs. line at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


ATLANTA at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Falcs 4-15 vs. spread on reg season road since 2017, Cards 8-12 last 20 vs. spread at Glendale (1-1 TY). Atlanta 1-6 as road chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on Falcon negatives.


DALLAS at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas on 9-3-1 reg season spread run since mid 2018, though has dropped last two. Jerry Jones also “under” 11-3 last 14 on road. Jets on 0-6-1 spread skid as host and "under" 4-1 last five since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


TENNESSEE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-8 SU, 2-7 vs. spread since late 2018, 4-10-1 vs. points last 15 as host. Denver also “under” 12-2 last 14. Titans “under” last four TY and 3-1 vs. spread last four away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.


PITTSBURGH at L.A. CHARGERS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steelers are 6-1 as dog since LY (1-1 TY). Pittsburgh also on 8-4 “under” run. Bolts just 2-10 vs. spread last 9 as Carson chalk.
Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Ravens 4-1 O/U
2. Lions 3-1 O/U
t3. Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Buccaneers, & Redskins 3-2 O/U



NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Bills 5-0 O/U
t2. Chargers, Vikings, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins, Jets & Niners 4-1 O/U

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Ravens covered once in last nine division games.

— Green Bay covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Giants are 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC teams.

— Minnesota is 21-5-1 in last 27 games as a home favorite.

— Chargers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Notes on all the NFC teams…….

Arizona:
— Cardinals have only one takeaway in their last four games (-2 in TO’s for year).
— Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog.
— Road team covered their last four games.

Atlanta:
— Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives.
— Atlanta averaged 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games.
— Falcons covered only four of their last 19 road games.

Carolina:
— Panthers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 ppg, with Kyle Allen at QB.
— Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games.
— Panthers ran for only 39 yards in Week 2’s 20-14 home loss to Tampa Bay.

Chicago:
— Bears allowed total of 45 points in Weeks 1-4, then gave up 24 points to Oakland Sunday.
— Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down vs Washington; other four games? 15-53
— Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games.

Dallas:
— First three games: 18-31 on third down. Last two games: 6-19.
— Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half of their last two games.
— Dak Prescott: 35-18 as an NFL starter; 24-5 vs losing teams, 11-13 vs winning teams.

Detroit:
— All four Detroit games have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Lions have nine takeaways but also six giveaways in four games this year.
— Detroit won/covered six of its last seven post-bye games.

Green Bay:
— Packers are +7 in turnovers, won/covered four of first five games.
— Green Bay is 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
— Packers scored 88 points in first half of games, 37 in second half.

LA Rams:
— Rams scored 69 points in last two games, but lost both of them.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-7 ATS away from home.
— Average points scored in 2nd half of Ram games this year: 34.8

Minnesota:
— Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games; Bears held them to 40.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points.

NY Giants:
— Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 10 of their last 13 games on natural grass.

New Orleans:
— Saints are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games.
— NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays.
— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points.

Philadelphia:
— Eagles are 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-2 when they do not.
— Philly is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eagles have converted 37-70 third down plays this year.

San Francisco:
— SF ran ball for 702 yards in their last three games.
— 49ers have 11 takeaways in four games, but also eight turnovers.
— Last time SF was NFC’s last unbeaten team was 1984.

Seattle:
— Seahawks scored 27+ points in each of their last four games.
— Seattle is just 21-59 on 3rd down, but scored 98 points on 16 red zone drives.
— Seahawks are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay:
— Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Tampa Bay has eight takeaways (+6) in its last four games.
— Average total in Bucs’ last three games: 71.0.

Washington:
— Redskins didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Washington is 0-5, with last four losses all by 10+ points.
— Would expect them to run ball with Callahan the new coach.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 6 odds: Cowboys could get caught looking past Jets
Jason Logan

America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you’re not using situational handicapping to help unearth NFL betting value each Sunday, you’re missing out on one of the better weapons we can use against the big bad bookies.

Situational capping is pretty simple, if you know what to look for: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 6 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: ATLANTA FALCONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, 51.5)

The Arizona Cardinals cracked the win column thanks to a nail-biting road victory at Cincinnati last Sunday, giving new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray their first taste of sweet, sweet NFL victory as well as picking up an emotional win for the franchise following the death of team owner Bill Bidwell.

The Cardinals come back to the desert for a possible letdown spot against a desperate Falcons teams and a head coach whose office chair looks like a Hollywood stunt man in a disaster movie (it’s on fire). Atlanta is 1-4 SU and finished on the wrong end of a 53-32 shootout at Houston in Week 5. A loss to Arizona wouldn’t help Dan Quinn’s cause and after the Redskins canned Jay Gruden, it’s open season on struggling head coaches.

The Cardinals are winless at home, with an average margin of almost minus-12 points per game as hosts, and haven’t been great off a win, going 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory. Adding to that lurking letdown spot is a back injury to do-it-all RB David Johnson, who had a monster game versus the Bengals but couldn’t sit down following the win due to pain.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS (+7, 42.5)

The Cowboys' bandwagon has hit some rough highway in recent weeks, losing to the Saints and Packers after a 3-0 start. Dallas has a good shot of snapping that skid in East Rutherford Sunday, taking on the winless Jets.

However, America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, who flipped their fortunes after a slow start and now sit tied with Dallas atop the NFC East.

The Jets were as big as +8.5 before starting QB Sam Darnold was cleared to play following a bout with mono. That slimmed the spread to a touchdown Tuesday afternoon. New York has been running third-stringer Luke Falk under center since backup Trevor Siemian was injured midway through Week 2’s loss to Cleveland, and has sputtered on offense ever since.

Defensively, however, New York has been competitive. Gregg Williams makes opponents pay in blood for every yard and this team has eight takeaways already on the season. The Cowboys offense has looked lost the past two outings - with fumbles and interceptions killing drives - and their focus could be on Philly in Week 7, opening up a window for fans of the lookahead spot.

SCHEDULE SPOT: CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2, 47)

The Buccaneers are technically the home team for the next installment of the NFL’s venture across the pond, getting two points in their matchup with the Panthers in London, England. But on paper, this is Tampa Bay’s third game away from home in a row, and part of a grueling stretch that keeps the Bucs out of Raymond James Stadium for 49 days (with a Week 7 bye in between).

Oakland found itself in this exact same spot (and spot bet) last week and prevailed against the Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as an underdog. The Raiders traveled to England that Monday following Week 4 and spent all week acclimating to the major time difference. The trip isn’t as brutal for the East Coast Bucs, who leave Thursday, will sleep on the plane, and practice Friday. Carolina is planning to arrive a day earlier, with departure on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay has two impressive road wins already this season, at Carolina and at Los Angeles, but looked bad in a loss at New Orleans last weekend. This is also a 9:30 a.m. ET start time – unlike Week 5’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in London – so perhaps the Panthers have the edge in time zone acclimation by arriving a day earlier.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.

— Miami covered twice of last nine games vs NFC teams.

— Bengals are 9-3 in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a non-divisional road favorite.

— Falcons covered three of last 16 games outside their division.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


WHAT’S WORSE THAN A TOILET BOWL?

As Jason Logan says, the matchup between the winless Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins isn’t so much a Toilet Bowl as an “ill-timed poop in the woods.” You may have to explain to your significant other why you are watching such poorly played NFL football on Sunday. Your answer to that should be: for the value! We have a play for you on this Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend treat.

Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen put together two non-disastrous starts before his Week 5 bye. The Team only put up 16 points but did manage to score their first offensive touchdown this year. Getting most of Rosen’s attention is receiver Preston Williams who has 19 targets for eight grabs and 114 yards in his last two games. Look for Preston to go Over his receiving total of 54.5 yards as Washington is allowing 78 yards a game to team’s No.2 WR.


HOOPER TROOPERS

Falcons’ No. 1 receiver Julio Jones did not practice yesterday and is coming off back-to-back scoreless weeks where the All-Pro didn’t top 55 yards in either of those games. Picking up the slack is Austin Hooper who is fantasy’s No. 1 tight end and averaging 7.5 grabs for 93 yards over that same two-game stretch.

It just so happens that the league’s hottest TE is running up against the league’s worst defensive team to TEs as the Falcons play the Cardinals. Hooper’s totals will be very sharp as many prop bettors, ourselves included, have been religiously fading Arizona to TEs, but this is a matchup Hooper can win, especially if Jones’ injury slows him down.

Take Hooper’s reception total of 4.5 and hit the Over as the ATL TE has cleared that mark four times this year and the Cards have also the Over four times.


RUSSELL FLEXIN’

Russell Wilson has the second-lowest odds to win the MVP behind only Patrick Mahomes. Wilson has thrown the ball over 29 times just twice this year but has still tossed 12 TDs, zero INTs and is completing 73 percent of his passes.

With the Browns showing the world how well they can stop the run, look for the Seattle Seahawks to lean on the ground game versus the Browns who are surrendering 6.5 yards per carry over their last three games.

Take Wilson’s Under 30.5 pass attempts and if you are looking for another play, jump on the Over 1.5 passing TDs.


HOUSE OF CARDS

Since 2017, the Atlanta Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road but you can argue that there are a lot of factors in this trend that aren’t specific to the same Falcons team that is heading to Arizona to face the Cardinals in Week 6. What we do know about this current team is that they are allowing a disproportionate 141.1 QB rating to opposing signal-callers over their last three weeks.

Sure, Deshaun Watson’s 426 yards and perfect QB rating skew that number, but the dirty birds still allowed Marcus Mariota and Jacoby Brissett to complete 72 percent of their passes for five TDs and zero interceptions in Weeks 3 and 4. Also not helping the Falcons’ cause is that they are pacing the league in points allowed on the road at 36.

After putting up 26 points versus the Cincinnati Bengals’ 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense, Kyler Murray and the Cards will get to tee off on the Falcons’ equally terrible 29th-ranked DVOA passing defense. Arizona gained a season-high 514 yards of offense last week in their first win as Murray has really figured out his rushing game lately rushing for 189 yards and two scores over his last three. Kliff Kingsbury is finding this offense’s identity which will help in exposing Atlanta’s defensive road struggles on Sunday, even if David Johnson sits.

Wait to take the Over on Arizona’s team total closer to kickoff. The total may drop from 24.5 if David Johnson doesn’t suit up and won’t likely increase if he is active.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 6 odds movers and shakers: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New York quarterback Sam Darnold returns this week, which makes a big difference in the line. Without Darnold, the Jets would be nearly two-touchdown home 'dogs to Dallas, but instead are +7.

NFL Week 13 has a dozen Sunday games and a Monday nighter on the somewhat semi-frozen tundra. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW YORK JETS: This week’s big mover isn’t due to someone who’s out, but rather someone who’s back in. After a monthlong bout with mononucleosis, quarterback Sam Darnold returns to lead New York at home against Dallas. “Without Darnold, this game would be Cowboys favored by 13.5 or 14, seeing as Luke Falk is third string for the Jets,” Osterman said. “With Darnold, we opened at Cowboys -7.5, and we’re now down to -7. Darnold is one of the biggest movers of a line, because of who is behind him.”

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. “With the Kamara news, we moved the line a half-point,” Osterman said of a Friday afternoon adjustment from Saints +2 to +2.5. “If he doesn’t play, then I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved another half-point. He’s very important to their offense right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Running back Todd Gurley is doubtful to play in an NFC West clash against Seattle, as he deals with a quadriceps injury. “He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. Anticipating the Gurley news, The SuperBook moved the Rams from -3.5 to -3 on Wednesday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is apparently fine, but wideouts Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – who both missed last week’s home loss to the Colts – are questionable this week at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are down to -4, after opening -8 pre-Indy loss. “Our Chiefs line had Hill out and Watkins in built into it. If Watkins is out, that wouldn’t have much effect on the line. But if Hill plays, that would move the line a half-point.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mason Rudolph (concussion) is out, meaning third-string QB Devlin Hodges gets his first NFL start, with Pittsburgh +7 at the Chargers on Sunday night. “We expected Rudolph not to play, so the line is already without Rudolph. The difference between Rudolph and Hodges is about 3 points.”


WEATHER WATCH

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The breeze will blow out of the southwest at 17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. The total opened at 47, reached 47.5, then dipped to 46 Friday before ticking to 46.5. “The total has come down a little bit. Wind can really affect the kicking game.”

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS: There’s a better-than-50-percent chance of precipitation for this 4:25 p.m. ET kick at MetLife Stadium. But that hasn’t altered any numbers yet at The SuperBook. “We’re waiting to get more of an accurate forecast Saturday.” The Cowboys are -7, with a total of 44.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The Monday nighter could be the chilliest game of the year so far, with temperatures in the low-40s/high-30s. The SuperBook opened the total at 46.5 and it peaked at 47.5, then returned to the opening number. “But temperature alone usually doesn’t have too much effect on the total, especially in places such as Green Bay, where low temps are expected.” The Packers are at -4.


PROS VS. JOES

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The line flipped from Cleveland -2 to Seattle -1.5, then ticked to Seattle -1. “This is a classic overreaction from Monday night, when the Browns looked bad” at San Francisco. “Pros are on Cleveland, the public is all over the Seahawks, in a spot where the Browns would probably be a small favorite had they not been blown out on Monday.”

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: This game opened at pick and moved to Jaguars -1.5 by Tuesday, and as noted above, the Jags got to -2.5 Friday on the Kamara news. “Pros are on the Jags, the public loves the Saints.”


REVERSE LINE MOVES

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: Along with this matchup pitting Pros vs. Joes, it falls into this category, as well. “The line opened pick, and we’re now at Jags -2.5, even though we’ve taken more money on the Saints.” The aforementioned Kamara injury factors into that line, as well.

CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened +1.5, the line quickly got to pick, then trended back toward Carolina, with the Panthers now -2.5. “We haven’t taken much on that game in general, but we have taken a little bit more on the Bucs, even though the market is going the Panthers’ way.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

251CAROLINA -252 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

253CINCINNATI -254 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

255SEATTLE -256 CLEVELAND
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

257HOUSTON -258 KANSAS CITY
HOUSTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.

259NEW ORLEANS -260 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

261PHILADELPHIA -262 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

263WASHINGTON -264 MIAMI
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

265SAN FRANCISCO -266 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

267ATLANTA -268 ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

269DALLAS -270 NY JETS
DALLAS are 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.

271TENNESSEE -272 DENVER
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the last 3 seasons.

273PITTSBURGH -274 LA CHARGERS
PITTSBURGH is 63-30 ATS (30 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 20-6 ATS (13.4 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

Panthers (3-2) vs Buccaneers (2-3) (@ London)— Carolina is 3-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 29.3 ppg; they scored 10 TD’s on 33 drives, after scoring three TD’s on 26 drives in Newton’s 2 starts. Bucs (+6.5) posted 20-14 upset in Charlotte in Week 2, holding Panthers to 39 RY, just their 4th win in last 13 series games; teams combined to convert only 5-26 third down plays. Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games- they covered five of last six pre-bye games. Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points in four of five games, giving up 12 TD’s on last 33 drives; they split last four game, despite being plus in turnovers all four games. Bucs are on road for third week in row; they’re 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an NFC South underdog.

Bengals (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2)— Winless Cincy has three losses by 4 or fewer points; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs. In last four games, Bengals allowed 191.5 YR/game and were outscored 61-19 in first half. In their last three games, Cincy has six plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 17. Ravens won in OT at Pittsburgh LW; they covered six of last nine games the week after playing Pitt. Four of five Baltimore games went over; they’ve run ball for 192.2 yards/game. Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 points as a home favorite, 0-2 TY- they covered once in last nine division games. Teams split last six series games; Bengals won three of last five trips here- four of last five were decided by 5 or fewer points.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Browns (2-3)— Seattle had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, Browns played on Monday. Seahawks are 4-1 with three wins by 1 or 2 points; they’re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as road underdogs. Seattle is 6-9-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass. Cleveland is 2-3 with only one game decided by less than 15 points; they’re 0-2 SU at home, coring 13 points in both games- -they’re 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite Seahawks lost two of last three visits to Lake Erie; home side won four of last five series games; Seattle’s last trip here was in 2011. NFC West non-conference road underdogs are 5-0 ATS; AFC North home favorites are 0-5.

Texans (3-2) @ Chiefs (4-1)— Houston exploded for a 53-32 win LW after underdogs covered their first four games; Texans split their first two road games, covered five of last six games when getting points on the road- three of their last four games stayed under. Houston is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. Chiefs lost 19-13 LW after scoring 33.8 ppg in their 4-0 start; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. KC lost field position by 11-7 yards in their last two games- their 6.7 yards/pass attempt LW is a season low. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning last one 42-34 in ’17; teams split two games here, last of which was in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Saints (4-1) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points; they’re 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games, 8-3 in last 11 as a road favorite, 9-4 in last 13 games on natural grass- they’re 7-1 ATS in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays. Jaguars gave up 285 RY in LW’s 34-27 loss at Carolina; Jags are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, but 11-18-1 in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Jax ran ball for 418 yards the last two weeks; Home side won five of six series games; Saints are 4-2 vs Jags, but lost two of last three visits here, last of which was in 2011.

Eagles (3-2) @ Vikings (3-2)— Eagles won last two games, scoring 34-31 points after a 1-2 start; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Philly won field position by 7+ yards in four of their five games- they held all five opponents under 90 YR. Vikings scored 28+ points in their three wins, 16-6 in their losses. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite; Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games- Bears held them to 40. Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points. Philly is 5-3 in last eight series games; they split last six visits to the Twin Cities, last of which was ’13. Wentz grew up in North Dakota, so this is as close to a home game as he’ll get in the NFL.

Redskins (0-5) @ Dolphins (0-4)— Washington fired Jay Gruden Monday, will probably try to run ball more with Callahan the new coach; Redskins haven’t said who the QB will be- they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Washington was outscored 28-0 in 2nd half of last two games. Miami has been outscored 81-0 in 2nd half of games this year; they’re 0-4 ATS, with a 30-10 loss the closest game they’ve played so far. Dolphins were outscored 132-20 in their first three home games. Redskins lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6. I would not recommend wagering on this game- two very bad teams.

49ers (4-0) @ Rams (3-2)— Rams had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, 49ers played on Monday. Sense of urgency for LA with 49ers two games up in loss column; Rams scored 69 points in last two games but lost both of them- they turned ball over nine times in last three games (-6), and converted only 7 of last 22 third down plays. LA ran ball 29 times, threw it 117 times in last two games, not usually a good ratio. 49ers are 4-0 with one win by less than 14 points; under Shanahan, SF is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog. 2-0 this year. Niners have 11 takeaways in four games (+3) but also turned it over eight times. LA won three of last four series games, with average total of 64; teams split last four games played here.

Falcons (1-4) @ Cardinals (1-3-1)— Atlanta lost its first three road tilts by 16-3-18 points; they’re 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games- Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives, and allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of five games (Philly was 4.6). Cardinals got first win LW, running ball for 266 yards; they’re 0-2-1 at home, losing by 18-17 points- they trailed 24-6 in the game they tied. Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a home dog. Cardinals blew 23-9 lead in last 5:00 at Cincy LW, but kicked FG at gun for their first win. Home side won last eight series games; Falcons lost last three visits to desert, with last one in ’13, but they did beat Redbirds 48-14 (-9.5) at home LY.

Cowboys (3-2) @ Jets (0-4)— Darnold (mono) returns at QB for Jet squad that was outscored 84-23 in last three games; have to be skeptical of his conditioning right off bat. NYJ offense was outscored 14-6 by Philly’s defense in their 55 plays LW- they’re 0-3-1 ATS in last four games as a home underdog. Cowboys lost last two games after a 3-0 start; they scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24 in losses. Dallas is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite on road, 8-4-1 in last 13 games vs AFC squads. Jets won last two series games, 27-24/19-16, after losing seven of previous nine meetings. Dallas won five of seven series games played here. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6.

Titans (2-3) @ Broncos (1-4)— Tennessee scored 43-24 points in its wins, 17-7-7 in losses; they were outscored 34-7 in first half of the losses- they outscored foes 36-13 in first half of wins. Titans were 0-4 on FG’s LW, so they changed kickers. Under Vrabel, Titans are 5-2 ATS as an underdog on road. Last four Titan games stayed under the total. Underdogs covered four of five Denver games; Broncos got first win LW, scoring TD’s on first two drives, then hanging on. In their last three games, Denver was outscored 43-16 in second half. Broncos won six of last nine series games; home side won last three. Titans lost last five visits here, losing last one 51-28 in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Steelers (1-4) @ Chargers (2-3)— 3rd-string QB Devlin gets first NFL start here; he was 7-9/68 passing in his debut LW, an OT home loss to rival Baltimore. Former Bronco Paxton Lynch is the new backup QB. Steelers are 1-4, but three of four losses were by 4 or less points; Pitt is 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog. Chargers scored only 3 points on four trips to red zone LW in their 20-13 home loss to the Broncos LW- they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Chargers’ only TD LW was scored on a punt return. Bolts’ last four games stayed under the total. Pitt won four of last six visits to San Diego, last of which was in ’15; Chargers (+3) won 33-30 at Heinz Field LY.

Lions (2-1-1) @ Packers (4-1)— Detroit hasn’t played in 15 days; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points, all covered by the underdog. Under Patricia, Lions are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs- three of their four games this year went over. Detroit has nine takeaways in four games (+3); they’re 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games on natural grass. Green Bay has 11 takeaways (+9) in its four wins, zero (-2) in the one loss; Packers are 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite. Detroit won last four series games, scoring 30+ points in all four; they won four of last five visits here, winning 30-17/31-0 in last two. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-10 ATS so far this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

10* FREE NFL PICK (Rams -3)

I'll take my chances here with Los Angeles as a mere 3-point home favorite against the 49ers. I love this spot for the Rams. They are coming off back-to-back losses and getting no love at home against a San Francisco team that just got the public's attention with last week's 31-3 blowout win at home over the Browns on Monday Night Football.

I get the 49ers are 4-0, but I don't think a single one of the teams they beat (Bucs, Bengals, Steelers, Browns) will be in the playoffs. Rams just lost at Seattle on Thursday Night Football 30-29. They outgained the Seahawks 477 to 429 and were up in control of that game most of the way.

That's two straight weeks the offense has looked good. Gurley may or may not play, but I don't think it will matter in the grand scheme of things. Rams have a strong run defense and the 49ers offense has been centered around their run game. Unfortunately for SF they lost arguably the one guy they couldn't lose in fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The run game was not the same after he went out.

Another key factor here is rest. While LA is playing on 3 extra days of rest, the 49ers are playing on a short week of rest. Give me the Rams -3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½ -115

Edges - Texans: QB Deshaun Watson 8–2-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0 ATS versus foe coming off a loss … Chiefs: 2-12 SU at home when coming off a home loss … We recommend a 1* play on Houston Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
OVER 43½

The set-up: Dallas has lost two straight and after this non-conference matchup it has the Eagles before it's bye week. The Cowboys started the season 3-0, but now the questions are starting to be asked if that was because of the weak competition they faced to open the campaign. Dallas looked impotent in its 12-10 setback to a Drew Brees-less Saints team, before then losing 34-24 to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last weekend. Clearly the visitors can't "look past" their opponent today. In fact, it's totally the opposite. This is a golden opportunity for Dak Prescott and company to get back on track today. At 0-4 and with their starting QB still with question marks surrounding his availability, clearly there's not much good to say about the Jets this season. They do have the Patriots on deck next week, so the road ahead isn't going to get any easier. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this sets up as a wide open "shootout," rather than a slower-paced "chess match."

The pick: Dallas has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after having lost two of its last three SU, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home dog. I think this number is a little low, consider the over.


1* FREE PLAY on the OVER Cowboys/Jets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RICKY TRAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Steelers vs. Chargers
Chargers-6½

I don't think there's any reason to "over-think" this one. Pittsburgh's season is over at 1-4, while LA is desperate to get back into the winners circle at 2-3. Pittsburgh QB' Mason Rudolph is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about whether or not he's truly at 100% health after last week's concussion? Philip Rivers and company have two straight tough road contests after this (Tennessee and Chicago), which essentially makes this a "must win" contest for the home side.

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 vs. the conference.

- LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

The verdict: Pittsburgh isn't in the frame of mind to even use the "spoiler factor" as motivation right now. This one has "blowout" written all over it in my opinion; consider the Chargers this weekend!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Saints vs. Jaguars
Saints+1½

Take New Orleans.

Game 259.

10:00 am pst.

Gardner Minshew has played well. But, so has Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints know how to keep games close, with all four of their wins coming by seven points or less. Mind you, they are riding a three-game win and cover streak over such notables as the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Buccaneers. The Jaguars two victories have come against the Titans and Broncos, which are a combined, 3-7. They were shredded last week by Christian McCaffrey and now must face Alvin Kamara this week. New Orleans is money on the road, going 21-8 ATS the last 29 as a guest. The Jaguars are 0-5 the last five in October. Take the Saints. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRAD DIAMOND
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½

1* Houston over Kansas City

At home the Chiefs look to rebound after a home loss (13-19) to Indianapolis, while Houston comes into play since crushing Atlanta 53-32. In the KC loss they again had problems establishing the running game (14/36). If the Texans grab the edge on the ground they could win and cover, especially if QB Mahomes is not 100%. Against the spread numbers illustrate the series road unit is 5-1 ATS L6 with the Texans 7-3-1 ATS against the AFC and 5-2 ATS during October. Good Luck, and remember last Sunday we cashed a 3-0-1 ATS ticket including the 5* NFL Game of the Week on Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Cardinals+2½

1* on Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals continue to fight week in and week out for first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They have been competitive in the majority of their games and are coming off a 26-23 road win at Cincinnati in which the offense took off for their best game of the season. The Cardinals amassed 514 total yards on the Bengals in the win. Now they are up against a Falcons team that looks to have quit on head coach Dan Quinn. They have lost 3 straight, including a 14-point home loss to Tennessee and a 21-point road loss at Houston. They gave up 53 points to the Texans last week, so you can imagine Kyler Murray is going to have another big game here. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when the total is 49.5 or higher. Take Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Bengals vs. Ravens

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens -10.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a disaster. They are 0-5 this season and giving up 27.2 points per game and 412.2 yards per game. Their defense can’t stop anybody, and the Baltimore Ravens should be able to hang a big number on them here Sunday. That will be key in the Ravens covering this double-digit spread.

The Bengals gave up 514 yards to a Cardinals team last week that had been struggling on offense coming in. They just cannot get healthy on defense as they are missing guys like Shawn Williams and Carlos Dunlap. Offensively, the Bengals are still missing A.J. Green and John Ross, arguably their two best receivers coming into the season. They also have injuries up front along the offensive line. They are scoring just 16.0 points per game as a result.

I know the Ravens only beat the Bengals 24-21 at home last year with Lamar Jackson. But this Bengals team is a lot worse than that version, and this Ravens team is a lot better. And keep in mind the Ravens rushed for 265 yards on the Bengals last year, so it was a misleading final. They held the Bengals to just 255 total yards in the win.

The Ravens have one of the most improved offenses in the league this year. They are scoring 32.2 points per game and averaging 441 yards per game. They are still running the ball very well at 192 yards per game and 5.3 per carry, but the improvement has come in the passing game with Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 249 passing yards per game and 67% completions. This new balanced attack has been tough for opposing defenses to tame.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who give up 6.0 or more yards per play over the last two seasons. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 vs. excellent rushing teams that average 150 or more rushing yards per game. Look for the Ravens to name their score in this one and easily cover this double-digit spread. Bet the Ravens Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Titans vs. Broncos
UNDER 41 -115

The Denver Broncos are coming into this contest looking to build on their first win of the season, a 20-13 road triumph at the Los Angeles Chargers. Under is 9-1-1 in the Broncos last 11 games following a straight up win, and I think both teams will struggle to move the ball in this contest.

Here Denver hosts a Tennessee Titans team that has struggled to put points on the board ever since their blowout of Cleveland in Week 1. They've had big trouble to protect their QB as Marcus Mariota has been sacked 22 times, second-most in the NFL.

Denver's defense is solid holding opponents to 328.6 total yards and 21.2 points per game, and the Titans are right up there with them with 332.2 yards and 15.2 points per game allowed. I would be extremely surprised if either team was to break out offensively all of a sudden here in the Mile High.

Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Rams -3

This is definitely a spot that favors the Los Angeles Rams. They are coming off back-to-back tough losses to the Bucs and Seahawks. They are tailing the undefeated 4-0 San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West now by multiple games, so they can’t afford to lose this game at home. Now the Rams have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday, while the 49ers are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Rams have played the much more difficult schedule this year. The 49ers are 4-0, but the four teams they have beaten all have losing records and are a combined 5-15 on the season. Now the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries too. They’ll be playing without their two starting offensive tackles in Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. They are also without do-it-all FB Kyle Juszczyk, the highest-paid fullback in the NFL and for good reason. And they could be without TE George Kittle, their best offensive weapon who had a questionable tagged placed on him after missing Friday’s practice. The Rams won 39-10 at home and 48-32 on the road over the 49ers last year. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Give me the Rams

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Redskins vs. Dolphins
OVER 41½

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The matchups don't get much uglier than this as the Redskins travel to Miami to face the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, I do expect both offenses to finally find some success. Not unexpectedly, we're dealing with a relatively low total here as both teams carry extremely low expectations. But it's important to note that both defenses have been incredibly forgiving not to mention generous to opposing offenses. This is an excellent opportunity for QBs Case Keenum and Josh Rosen to pad their stats. Although new Redskins head coach Bill Callahan has talked about wanting to 'establish the run' - an archaic mindset in today's NFL - I don't think he'll be able to resist having Keenum attack a very beatable Dolphins pass defense through the air. This one won't be a true shootout, but it should climb 'over' the posted total. Take the over (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (259) New Orleans Saints at (260) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.0 (-108)

The Jags got gashed by Christian McCaffrey last week in Charlotte, and can assume the clever Sean Payton will have similar designs with his N.O. infantry star Alvin Kamara. But even with McCaffrey running wild, the transcendent Gardner Minshew still gave the Jags a look at that game, and inability to be “gap sound” on stop end vs. Panthers should be a relatively easy fix for Doug Marrone's staff. Teddy Bridgewater has already done more than asked in relief of Drew Brees, but it’s not as if the Saints are “Ohio State-ing” their foes, with all four wins by 7 points or fewer. If getting points, note J’ville 4-1 last five as TIAA Bank Field (Gator Bowl!) dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Seahawks vs. Browns
Seahawks +1

You do the math. Browns on a short week, after a blowout loss in a rout at San Francisco 31-3. They face the Seahawks who make the trip to the eastern time zone for a 1pm ET game coming in off of 10 days rest and a nice win over the division rival Rams. The spread favors Cleveland currently at -1, I've also seen this game at a PK, and Seattle at -1. The total has moved up half a point from 46.5 to 47.

What does your gut say? Mine says Seahawks ATS, even though this feels like a trap game, I'm going to lay my small wager on the QB who has a chance to win an MVP award this year...hint...he's not named Mayfield.

Russell Wilson is having a career year, and his statistics are off the chart. Wilson is leading the NFL with a 126.3 rating while completing 73.1 percent of his passes. He's been playing MVP-level ball, and that kind of play works at home and on the road. He's unflappable. All he's done is throw for 1,409 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions this season.

Against the 49ers Mayfield went 8-of-22 and threw a pair of picks, and only 100 yards passing. He's now sitting with 8 INT's and 4TD's on the year. Now I'm not about to predict that type of game for him Sunday, but don't underestimate the Seahawks pass rush. Ziggy Ansah, and Jadeveon Clowney will have Mayfield dancing in the pocket all day long, let alone the push Seattle will get from their interior D-line. They are very underrated. With the NFL's best tackling LB Bobby Wagner playing in the triangle behind a rejuvenated Al Woods and youngsters Quinton Jefferson and Poona Ford who rotate in at DT the Brown O-line are going to have their hands full.

I'm interested to see which running back makes a great impact on this game. We will see a couple good ones on display in Chris Carson and Nick Chubb, I love both their styles of play. It'll make this game fun to watch.

Some trends to consider. SEA are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Cleveland is 1-16 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games played in October. The Browns are also 6-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Browns are 0-2 at home, and in a few hours they'll be 0-3.

Back the Seahawks +1, PK, -1, whatever you see around there! If you were lucky to lock this line in earlier in the week you could have had the Seahawks at +2.5. Congratulations! I have them winning this game by 6.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

Last week I skipped across the pond and delivered the Oakland Raiders outright against the Chicago Bears, an easy free winner. This week I'm back in London, and I'm playing the Carolina Panthers minus the number against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This is a revenge game, as the Panthers won nine of 13 in the series, but lost the first meeting at home this season.

I'm becoming a big believer of Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, whose 866 yards from scrimmage are the second most through five games in NFL history, only to Jim Brown's 988 back in 1963.

McCaffrey has been the most electrifying player I've seen, from every angle, and will have field day against the Buccaneers' 26th-ranked defense, which also ranks dead last against the pass.

That'll open things up for Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, who has won all four career starts with seven touchdowns vs. no interceptions. He's become the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first four starts with no picks and now gets to dissect the worst passing defense in the league. The Bucs have allowed more than 300 yards passing over the past four weeks.

Carolina's defense isn't too shabby, either, ranking eighth overall. The Panthers have the fourth-best passing defense and I'm trusting their pass rush will make things difficult for quarterback Jameis Winston.

Take the Panthers in this one as I make it two in a row across the pond.

Keep in mind, as I always insist, with football favorites in this range, we're buying half points. And if this game is in between -2.5 and -4.5 points, I want you purchasing the half point down.

1* PANTHERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free NFL winner this week is on the Seattle Seahawks over the Cleveland Browns.

While the verdict is still out on the Browns, I don't think there is much question about the potential of Seattle.

Cleveland comes into this one after a terrible showing against the underrated San Francisco 49ers. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw two of his league-high eight interceptions, was sacked four times, and finished with a mere 100 yards passing and a 13.4 rating.

And I really hate to say this considering I thought Cleveland would be better under his leadership, but Mayfield appears to be regressing, not progressing.

For the second straight week he completed just two passes to star Odell Beckham Jr., and he looks lost under pressure. Now you throw him to a Pete Carroll-coached defense, and I think it'll only get worse - even in Cleveland.

I'd rather back Russell Wilson, who looks rejuvenated and has even sparked MVP conversation around his play. Wilson has thrown for more than 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in five games, becoming the first QB with those stats in the Super Bowl era to do so.

Wilson's 73 percent completion percentage leads the league, as does his 126.3 rating, and I expect him to target Tyler Lockett this weekend. Lockett leads Seattle with 30 receptions through five games and is more than halfway to last year's career-best total of 57 receptions.

All Seattle on Sunday.

1* SEAHAWKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE CONNORS

Your Sunday complimentary winner goes out on the late card as I see this Tennessee-Denver contest being one of the lower-scoring games on this Week Six schedule.



After a 43 point opening week eruption in the win at Cleveland, the Titans have been very challenged offensively over their past 4 games, as Mike Vrabel's team is averaging under 14 points per contest since Week One. To their credit, the Titans have been stingy on defense, as they have not allowed more than 20 points in any of their games this season. Their opponents are averaging just over 15 points per game for the year, and each of Tennessee's last 4 games on the year have held Under the total.



That trend is likely to continue against a Denver team that returned to form in their 20-13 upset win over the Chargers last weekend, as the Broncos have played 3 of 5 Under the total this season, and did play their last 8 games last season Under the posted price as well!



With the Broncs only posting right at 19 points per game this season, this meeting with the Titans sure has the look and the feel of a game that sees between 30 to 35 points combined when the final seconds tick off the clock in the Mile High City.




Titans-Broncos Under the total.


5* TENNESSEE-DENVER UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, October 13 is:

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 over New Orleans Saints.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Saints
Chiefs
Rams
Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 6
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Browns (PK, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) escaped past Los Angeles in Week 5 with a nail-biting 30-29 home victory to improve to 2-0 in NFC West play. Russell Wilson continues to put together a terrific season for Seattle by throwing four touchdown passes, but the Seahawks dropped to 0-3 ATS at home after failing to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have been solid to back on the road this season by winning at Pittsburgh and Arizona, while scoring 28 and 27 points, respectively in those victories.

On the flip side, the Browns (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been tough to figure out this season. Granted, the expectations have been elevated, but Cleveland has not put together two solid performances in a row this season the Browns lit up the Ravens for 40 points, but were held to three points in last Monday’s blowout loss at San Francisco. The Browns have yet to win a game at home in two tries in 2019, but Cleveland has not dropped consecutive contests since Week 8 and Week 9 of last season.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season against NFC foes, while Seattle has beaten each of its two opponents from the AFC. Dating back to 2017, the Seahawks have covered eight consecutive games off an ATS loss, while the Browns’ offense has rebounded off a defeat this season by scoring 23 and 40 points following a setback.

Best Bet: Browns 26, Seahawks 24

Eagles at Vikings (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Two seasons ago, Philadelphia (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) destroyed Minnesota (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) in the NFC championship game as short underdogs on its way to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl victory. The Eagles won that title behind Nick Foles at quarterback, as Carson Wentz looks to bring Philadelphia back into the top of the NFC. Wentz has led the Eagles to wins the last two games following a 1-2 start in victories over the Packers and Jets, as Philadelphia has topped the 30-point mark in each contest. The Eagles covered in their only underdog opportunity in 2019 at Green Bay, while posting a 3-0 ATS mark in their last three chances when receiving points.

The Vikings have cruised to home victories over the Falcons and Raiders by double-digits each, while coming off their first road win of the season against the Giants. Minnesota’s two losses came within the NFC North against Green Bay and Chicago, as the Vikings were limited 22 points in those defeats. The Vikings’ defense has been solid this season by allowing 16 points or fewer in four of five games, resulting in a 4-1 mark to the UNDER.

Minnesota avenged the 2017 NFC Championship loss by edging Philadelphia last season, 23-21 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings jumped out to a 20-3 advantage before the Eagles crept within two points in the final minute. Both Wentz and Kirk Cousins each threw for over 300 yards in that game, but each team was limited to below 81 yards on the ground.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Vikings 17

49ers at Rams (-3, 50 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Only one team remains undefeated in the NFC and it’s the 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), who are fresh off a 31-3 blowout over the Browns last Monday. San Francisco easily cashed as five-point favorites off the bye, highlighted by an 83-yard touchdown run by Matt Breida and two touchdown passes from Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners own a solid 10-2 record since 2017 with Garoppolo starting at quarterback, as five of those wins have come away from Levi’s Stadium.

The Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) sit in third place of the NFC West behind the 49ers and Seahawks entering Sunday’s action following consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle. Los Angeles has yielded 85 points in the past two losses, including 30 points in a one-point defeat at Seattle in Week 5. Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff threw for 395 yards, but L.A. suffered consecutive losses for only the second time under head coach Sean McVay. Running back Todd Gurley scored twice against the Seahawks, but the former University of Georgia standout will miss Sunday’s contest with a quadricep contusion.

Los Angeles swept San Francisco last season, but the Niners also played without Garoppolo in each of those games following his ACL tear last September. The Rams have scored 39 or more points in three of the past four meetings with the Niners, but San Francisco’s defense will be up to the task as it has yielded 57 points in four games this season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, 49ers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 ½ - Titans at Broncos

Both Tennessee and Denver have struggled to score points this season as the Titans have scored 17 points or less three times, while the Broncos have posted 20 points or fewer on four occasions. However, Tennessee is coming off a loss to Buffalo last week, as the Titans have posted 43 and 24 points in the role of a road underdog this season. The Broncos have been a bit hit or miss defensively as they have given up 16 and 13 in two games, but also allowed 24, 26, and 27 in three losses.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

New Orleans has rolled to a 3-0 record with Teddy Bridgewater as its starting quarterback, including back-to-back home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Saints travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, who continue to ride rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Jacksonville has covered in three of four games with Minshew starting, including in its last home game against Houston in Week 3. This is the first time that Jacksonville is favored this season, as the Saints may be in a look-ahead spot with a visit to Chicago next week.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites against the Texans at the Westgate Superbook last Monday, but that number has dropped to four. Kansas City is dealing with injuries on offense as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is listed as doubtful, while Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with an injury to his sternum. The Texans are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, including an outright underdog victory over the Chargers in Week 3. Dating back to 2018, Houston has covered in four of the past five opportunities in the road ‘dog role.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Since beating the Colts in Week 6 at home last season, the Jets have lost 13 of their past 14 games, including an 0-4 start in 2019. New York has failed to cover in its past seven opportunities at Met Life Stadium, while last cashing as a home underdog in Week 16 of the 2017 season against the Chargers. The Jets get quarterback Sam Darnold back in the lineup on Sunday as they face the Cowboys as seven-point underdogs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Steelers at Chargers
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After grabbing an easy winner two weeks ago with the 'under' in the Cowboys/Saints game, last week's play on the 'over' in the Colts/Chiefs game was an easy loser in that the two teams never came close to sniffing that total. The Chiefs have a bit of a dilemma on their hands right now with how they expect to handle man coverage, but for an offensive mind like head coach Andy Reid, I wouldn't expect Kansas City's offensive struggles against that form of defense to continue. It's a copy cat league though, so until KC does figure out how to beat man, they are going to continue to see it in high doses.

This week's SNF game has a pair of teams that would tell you they've drastically underperformed this year, as at the beginning of the year, not many would have had the Chargers and Steelers a combined 3-7 straight up heading into this contest. But that's exactly where they stand as neither of them are at .500, and are probably another loss or two away from potentially packing things in for 2019. That's life in the NFL though, and if you get hit hard by the injury bug early in a season like these two teams have, it's awfully tough to turn things around enough to make the year a successful one.

Total Talk

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have definitely been hit hard by injuries this year, with the most recent significant loss being Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph took a brutal head shot last week, was forced out of the game, and there is no timetable for his return. That means that it's third stringer Devlin Hodges shot at making a start in the NFL this week and for an undrafted guy to be thrust into that role just six weeks in is tough.

At the same time, The Chargers have been hit with injuries at nearly every position on their roster, and starting center Mike Pouncey is the latest Charger to go down. Losing your starting center is huge because he's the guy that's out there scanning defenses and calling out protection schemes – as well as having his hands on the ball each and every play – so it's not like the Chargers don't have their own adversity on the injury front to deal with as well.

All these absences have predictably had an effect on where this SNF total was going to come out, as 41.5 is the number that the game opened at, and it's stayed relatively static all week with about 65% support on the 'under.' And at least on paper, the 'under' does tend to make a lot of sense. You've got two losing teams, one on their third QB of the season, both marred by numerous injuries offensively, and because of all that, neither averages more than the 20.6 points per game the Chargers put up. Pittsburgh comes in at 19.8 PPG on the year, so a total around 41 makes a lot of sense, and to many it makes a lot of sense to go 'under' as well given the extenuating circumstances.

Yet, at the same time, the Chargers have turned the ball over four different times this year inside the 5-yard line, and have shot themselves in the foot all year long with turnovers. LA has turned the ball over eight times this year with the vast majority directly taking points off the board for them. Sloppy play like that is why they come into this game with a losing record, and if they are able to clean up those things this week, I think we could see them look like the team that made it to the Divisional round last January.

On the flip side, Hodges is a relative unknown other then what we saw from him in his relief appearance last week. And while fear of the unknown in all aspects of life tends to have us shy away from those scenarios, you listen to the market here and they've already decided that he's going to be in well over his head this week. It's 'under' recommendations everywhere in the industry, and I'm just not sure this game will be as easy as that.

Sure, Hodges could end up being well over his head and look like the undrafted QB that he is, but him being on unknown commodity also hurts LA's defensive gameplanning because they really don't have a great idea of what to expect. That means the defensive strategy is probably going to look very vanilla early on to leave plenty of room for adjustments, and that in itself isn't an 'over' killer.

Side Spiel

Hodges being an unknown, and all the injuries across the board have me ignoring this side completely out of simply not knowing what to expect. You take away all the turnovers LA has had in critical spots this year and they probably do deserve to be laying about a TD that they are, but at the same time, they've got next to nothing in terms of home field advantage at that stadium, and Pittsburgh may be 1-4 SU, but their last three losses have come by a grand total of nine points.

If Hodges looks like the deer-in-headlights QB that seemingly the world expects him to be, the Chargers likely get the cover. If he doesn't and looks like at least a capable backup in this league, Pittsburgh could keep it close. I'm not about to venture a guess on what this game script turns out to be, so good luck to those of you who are venturing out on a side play for this game.

Final Thoughts

I will venture a guess on the idea that Hodges isn't going to struggle nearly as much as the majority in this industry believe, especially if he gets to see vanilla coverages for the first 15-30 minutes. Yes, the Chargers defense has been great all year in allowing 18.8 points per game, but in each one of those, they knew how to prepare and what to expect from the opposing QB/offense. That's not the case here, and I would not be surprised to see Hodges and the Steelers throw some wrinkles at the Chargers early to keep them off-balanced. If that happens, points should come in a hurry, because the Steelers organization definitely saw enough from Hodges at the collegiate level to give him a contract. Pittsburgh believes he has the skill set to help this organization if he were needed, and right now he's needed.

At the same time, the Chargers offense should be able to clean up these mistakes that have plagued them in recent losses, and make the most of their scoring opportunities. LA has scored 30 points in both of their SU victories this year, so if you do believe the Chargers win this game – as the point-spread would suggest – how can you not figure that LA won't threaten that 30-point barrier offensively here?

The Steelers defense has allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced this year that's got at least one victory in 2019 – sorry Bengals fans – and that number has been hit by Steelers opponents in both of Pittsburgh's road games this year.

Finally, we can't forget that SNF games this year are a perfect 6-0 'under' this year, and while 'under' supporters will use that as more evidence for that selection, I view it as a negative in that regard. Everyone already wants the 'under' in this game because of the injury situation on both sides, and then there is the confirmation bias on the 'under' run on SNF. To me, that sets up as almost a perfect storm to be contrarian as contrarian gets, and go 'over' this number in a heartbeat. The fact that this game looks like an easy 'under' to the world only makes me feel stronger about doing that too.

So it's not like I haven't been wrong before, and I'll be wrong plenty more in the future, but I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers organization in terms of prepping Hodges for this start and to have a play calling strategy that gives him the best chance to succeed. At the same time, I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to a QB like Philip Rivers that he and the rest of the Chargers offense can clean up their turnover issues sooner rather then later and start putting more TD's on the board.

I fell victim to believing last week's SNF game with KC and their high octane offense would be the one to crack the goose egg on 'overs' for SNF this year, but it was probably always going to be a game that everyone least expects to do so that actually does it. This Steelers game with a 3rd/4th string QB at the helm and a banged up Chargers team definitely fits that profile.

Best Bet: Over 41.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 since Dec 11, 2005 coming off a road game that did not end in a tie where they had a player with at least 125 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.04 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Teams are 0-7 OU (-6.00 ppg) since Nov 23, 2017 coming off a road game where Kirk Cousins threw at least two touchdowns.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 29-11 OU. Active on Washington/Miami


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-14 OU (-8.23 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 215 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The 49ers are 14-0 OU (10.04 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road coming off a home game where they rushed for at least 130 yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (+14.30 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick after a win as a road dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 6
Joe Williams

We head into the meat of the Week 6 schedule and the action started Thursday as the Giants-Patriots (43) game went 'over' for the third consecutive mid-week matchup. Even though the pair combined for 49 points, the 'over' was helped with three defensive and special teams scores. On a side note, the Patriots offense has just as many touchdowns (3) as the defense has this season. Including New England's victory over New York, winning teams are averaging 33 points per game over the past three Thursday night games, with the losing side is posting 20 PPG.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 5 8-7 6-9 8-6-1
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 36-42 31-46-1 39-37-2

The books had another strong performance in Week 5, helped out in part by the result of the Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders game in England. The total inched 'over' in that one, too. We'll touch more on the International Series below.

Division Bell

The four division battles saw the over connect in three of the outings in Week 5. The Ravens-Steelers game was helped out by the fact the contest was decided in overtime, but it was a rather miraculous result since undrafted free-agent quarterback Devlin Hodges played a majority of the game for Pittsburgh in place of injured QB Mason Rudolph, who is 'out' for Week 6, by the way. Hodges is the third-string QB for the injury-depleted Steelers.

Divisional Game Results Week 5
L.A. Rams at Seattle Over (48.5) Seattle 30, L.A. Rams 29
Baltimore at Pittsburgh Over (44) Baltimore 26, Piittsburgh 23 (OT)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 24
Denver at L.A. Chargers Under (45.5) Denver 20, L.A. Chargers 13

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Arizona: 47 to 51 ½
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 48 to 50 ½
Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay (London): 46 to 47 ½
Houston at Kansas City: 54 to 55
Washington at Miami: 41 to 42

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets: Over 92%
Atlanta at Arizona: Over 87%
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Over 81%
New Orleans at Jacksonville: Under 75%
Houston at Kansas City: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (66 percent) in the Washington-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Pittsburgh-L.A. Chargers (65 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 6

Week 5 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 3-1
NFC vs. NFC 1-1
AFC vs. AFC 0-2
AFC vs. NFC 4-3

London Totals

Week 6 will kick off with a divisonal battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in London featuring the second Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup of the season. The first time these teams met, the Bucs won 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, which was also the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). It was also the last time we saw the Panthers take a loss, as they have won three in a row under QB Kyle Allen.

This will be the first division battle overseas since the Rams blanked the Cardinals in Week 7 of the 2017 season, a game which went 'under'. We have had 25 regular-season games played in London since the start of the NFL International Series back in 2007, but only three divisional matchups. The 'under' is 2-1 in those games. Will the Bucs and Panthers follow suit with a line of 47.5? The under is 4-1 in Carolina's past five against divisional foes, while going 5-2 in Tampa's past seven against teams with a winning record.

London Results - Past Eight Games
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Other Week 6 Action

Houston at Kansas City: We saw QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) aggravate his ankle injury last Sunday night, and that really played a factor in his mobility and effectiveness. The Chiefs were tripped up at home 19-13 by the visiting Colts, and the 'under' connected. Vegas isn't expecting his ankle to be an issue, as they have set the total in the mid-50's, the highest total of the weekend slate. It's something to watch, not only this week, but in the following weeks, as the 'under' could be a sneaky play in Kansas City games due to inflated totals. Make a note that while Houston has been a great 'under' team at home, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in its last five road games and the offense is averaging 27.4 PPG in those games.

Philadelphia at Minnesota: The Eagles hit the road for the third time this season. They have averaged 27 PPG away from home, while allowing 25.5 PPG. For the Vikings, they're averaging 31 PPG in their two home games at U.S. Bank Stadium, while yielding just 13 PPG. Due to the defensive effort of the Vikings at home, the total is set at a rather low 44, but the Eagles are not the struggling Falcons or inconsistent Raiders offensively. The last time Philadelphia played at this venue, it put on an offensive show as it defeated New England 41-33 in Super Bowl 52.

Seattle at Cleveland: The last time these teams met resulted in a 30-13 win by the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. While the Browns were expected to be different, they have really struggled to jell offensively. Outside of a 40-point outburst against the Ravens in Week 4, the Browns offense has been rather moribund, posting 13, 23, 13 and 3. The 'under' has hit in three of the past four as a result. Seattle has had no such struggles on offense, going for 21 or more points in each outing, and 27 or more in each of the past four. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in two road games to date.

Washington at Miami: In the 'Tank Bowl', the winless Redskins and winless Dolphins square off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. I'm actually anticipating this game rather heavily to see exactly how good, or how bad, the tanking is. This will be the first game for Washington under interim head coach Bill Callahan, who is going back to Case Keenum as his QB. When healthy, Keenum has moved the offense, posting 21 PPG in the first three games before flaming out in Week 4 against the Giants before getting pulled. The 'over' went 3-0 in his first three starts, however. The defense has yielded 24 or more points in every game, so we might see Miami's highest output of the season.The Dolphins are dead-last in total yards allowed (472.0), rushing yards (175.8) and points per game (40.8), while checking in 31st in passing yards (296.2) allowed. For second-half total bettors, Miami hasn't scored in the final 30 minutes in any of its games this season.

Atlanta at Arizona: The Falcons have been hard to figure out this season, as they 1-4 SU with some varying results offensively. They were worked over 28-12 in Week 1 on the road, failing to score until the fourth quarter. In the past two road games they have averaged 28 PPG while allowing a total of 80 points, and they're giving up 20 or more points in all five contests to date. A lack of defense has been the only consistent thing about the Falcons, so perhaps rookie QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will get the offense rolling. In three home games Arizona is averaging 19 PPG while coughing up 27 or more points in all three games, or an average of 30.7 PPG.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of six or more points for Week 6, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 ½ to 48 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals are on the short end of a double-digit spread in Charm City. They have really struggled offensively, helped in large part due to injury problems along the offensive line. The fact wide receiver A.J. Green has been sidelined all season hasn't helped, either. Cincinnati is averaging just 16 PPG, ranking 29th in the NFL, while posting just 319.2 total yards per game to check in 26th. The defense isn't much better, ranking 30th with 411.8 total yards allowed, and they've been gouged for 167.6 rushing yards per contest to rank 31st. That's bad news when prepping for dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. The over is 7-3-1 in the past 11 for Cincinnati inside the division, while going a perfect 4-0 in Baltimore's past four divisional battles.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets (4:25 p.m. ET): The Jets get their starting QB Sam Darnold (illness) back this week, as he looks to give the Jets an injection of offense. He posted 16 points in his first and only appearance this season, and that was a seaso-nhigh in production for New York. They're averaging just 7.7 PPG over the past three games under the leadership of QBs Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk. The defense is perhaps the bigger concern, allowing 28 PPG over the past three outings. The Cowboys have slacked off over the past two games, averaging just 17 PPG across the past two games, both losses. They opened with three straight wins, posting 35, 31 and 31 points. Look for the Cowboys to get back to that type of production in a stadium they're very familiar, MetLife Stadium, since they face the Giants here once per season. The 'over' is also 2-1 in they're three games against losing teams, including 1-0 in their road game in such situation.

Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET): The Chargers are favored by 6 ½, and Vegas is expecting a rather low-scoring game on Sunday Night Football. For those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...going a perfect 6-0. With the UDFA QB Hodges making a start for the Steelers, expectations aren't terribly high that we're going to see a track meet. The 'under' is 37-15 in Pittsburgh's past 52 road outings, while going 16-5 in the past 21 on the road against teams with a losing home mark. The under is 4-1 in the past five at home for the Bolts, while going 21-8 in the past 29 vs. AFC teams.

Under the Lights

Detroit at Green Bay (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week will have the rested Lions, coming off of their bye, facing the red-hot Packers, coming off a 34-24 win at Dallas to show they're still a power in the NFC. The Lions could easily be 4-0 at this point, if not for a Week 1 meltdown late, settling for a tie on the road against the Cardinals. They also had some late-game issues in the Week 4 battle against the Chiefs, falling 34-30. The 'over' has connected in three of their four games to date, posting 27 or more points offensively in each of those games. The outlier is a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2. It was an outlier defensively, too, as they have given up at least 24 points in three of their four contests.

The Packers struggled offensively in a divisional battle to open the season, winning 10-3 in Chicago. They also saw the 'under' cash in Week 2, another divisional battle and win against the Vikings. However, they're averaging 29.3 PPG over the past three outings while yielding 24.8 PPG, seeing the 'over' hit in each of those three. The last time these teams met in Lambeau Field was Dec. 30, 2018, but the Packers rested an ailing QB Aaron Rodgers, so the Lions 31-0 win and 'under' result can mostly be discounted. They met Oct. 7 last season, with the Lions winning 31-21 in an 'over', and that is a little more of what to expect.

While it's still early, be aware that teams off the 'bye' this season have watched the 'under' go 2-0 in their games with the 49ers and Jets going low last week. As mentioned above, Detroit will be playing with rest and Miami will as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SYNERGY

Event: (261) Philadelphia Eagles at (262) Minnesota Vikings
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-121)

Eagles rate the better team for us in our database and we have to take the points in a matchup that looks to be a toss up. Betting against Minnesota last week gave us our only loss of 7 releases last wee, but they did it against a team that has lots of problems. Philly fattened up against mediocity also last week but has been faring better coming into last week. We dont believe in the Vikings yet becuase they just aren't showing it across all aspects of the game. Eagles have banded together through some early season injuries and difficulties. Minnesota is only 1 week removed from player apologies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (269) Dallas Cowboys at (270) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7.0 (-103)

BET SIZE = 1% of bankroll

DB's THOUGHTS:

The Cowboys have lost two straight, first at New Orleans and then at home against Green Bay. So, it's bounce-back time for Big D. The 'boys have already proved they can beat up on the league's punching bags, having defeated the Giants, Redskins & Dolphins by an average score of 32-15. Dallas is 10-3 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as road chalk since Dak and Zeke came into the league in 2016, including 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games in that role. And if Dallas is off a loss and laying points on the road, they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that same span.

Yes, Sam Darnold is back under center for the Jets. I have to believe there will be some rust, and the Cowboys defense is a pretty good unit. And let's face it, it's not like the Jets were setting the world on fire before Darnold became ill. The Jets with Darnold under center are 0-3 SU/ATS as home dogs (all from last season). And this Jets team has many more problems than just the QB position.

The Jets just represent another doormat for an angry Cowboys bunch to roll over.

FWIW, I think a 6-point Teaser with Dallas & Tennessee looks pretty good, too.

PLAY DALLAS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JIMMY BOYD
NHL | Oct 13, 2019
Penguins vs. Jets

1* Free NHL Pick on Pittsburgh Penguins +110

Easy play here on the Penguins as a small road dog against Winnipeg. Pittsburgh has really shown off their depth as they keep calling guys up and getting them to produce. Penguins cruised to a 7-4 win at Minnesota last night and have won back-to-back.

A lot of people will be looking to take the Jets, as they won 4-1 at Pittsburgh earlier this season. I like the Penguins to get their revenge and a big reason for that is the fact that this is an ideal spot to fade Winnipeg. The Jets are playing their 3rd in 4 nights, plus are off a 3-2 overtime thriller at Chicago last night.

Penguins are 6-2 last 8 when playing on 0 days rest and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 as an underdog. Jets are just 3-7 in their last 10 off a win, 3-8 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 1-6 in their last 7 as a home favorite. Take Pittsburgh!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
Cowboys-7

My free play is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

he Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.” The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th). However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The problem for the Jets is that the Dallas D has been good this season. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I will here.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

I know that Cleveland cannot be as bad as they looked on Monday night when they were taken out to the woodshed in their visit to Santa Clara that yielded a 31-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, but good God, Freddie Kitchens' team sure looked BAD that particular night.

The Brownies are back at home for this game, and do have a bye-week up next, but it is hard for me to find any other compelling reason to take them as the now small home underdog. This line did open with Cleveland as the small home favorite, but then Monday happened, and the line swung to the Seahawks as the road favorite.

I don't mind laying this small impost with Seattle, as they definitely have the scheduling advantage as they last played 10 days ago under the Thursday night lights when they held off the L.A. Rams, 30-29. The Seahawks are 4-1 now straight up, and they know that a win today guarantees they pick up a game on either the Rams or the 49ers in the division standings, as the Niners will be playing in L.A. against the Rams later today.

Russell Wilson continues to excel this season, as he leads the NFL in QB rating at 126.3 and he is also completing 73% of his passes. How does that compare to his counterpart Baker Mayfield? Well, Baker has regressed in his first full season under center with a 55.9% completion rate, and also 8 interceptions to go along with just 4 touchdown passes. The Cleveland offensive line has been bullied for the most part this year, so while the Browns are at home, I just don't see them stepping up against a quality team like Seattle to stop the bleeding before their break.

Seattle was able to win and cover at both Pittsburgh and Arizona already this season, and they are 6-1-1 now their last 8 road games against the spread, while also sporting a 8-4-2 against the spread mark when out of division their last 14 tries.

Cleveland has dropped 13 of their last 18 spread decisions against the NFC after their Monday night stinkeroo.

Give me Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson today over Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield.

3* SEATTLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Sunday Week 6 odds and line moves: Despite spread drop, book needs Texans vs Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Deshaun Watson's Houston squad opened as 8-point underdogs for Sunday's game at Kansas City, and the line dropped to -4. But The SuperBook still needs the Texans, as the public piles on the Chiefs.

NFL Week 6 Sunday features a clash of dynamic quarterbacks, in a game seeing reverse line movement. We check in on the action for that contest and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -8; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Kansas City was certainly expected to remain among the league’s unbeaten, but got an unpleasant surprise in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) went off as 10.5-point home favorites against Indianapolis in the Sunday nighter, but lost outright 19-13.

Houston has lacked consistency thus far, but the Deshaun Watson-led offense was certainly on the mark in Week 5. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) cooked up a 50-plus burger against Atlanta, including 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home faves.

The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -8 before their Sunday night tilt, took the line off the board during that game, then reopened -6.5 Monday morning. The line since plunged to -4, but looks can be deceiving here.

“We definitely need the Texans,” Osterman said of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “Sharps have been on the Texans, but it’s fair to say the Chiefs are the most popular public team. With all Kansas City’s injuries and Mahomes’ ankle, it makes sense that the line moved the way it did. But there’s no shortage of people willing to bet on the Chiefs.

“With Mahomes playing, getting the Chiefs at less than a touchdown, Joe Public is all over that.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles heads into this 4:05 p.m. ET start on a two-game skid. In Week 5, the Rams battled back and forth with Seattle, losing 30-29 while cashing as 1.5-point road underdogs in the Thursday night game.

San Francisco is among the last of the league’s unbeatens, joining New England in the rare air. The 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) pounded Cleveland 31-3 in the Week 5 Monday nighter, easily cashing as 5-point home favorites.

This line was off the board during the Niners’ victory, and when it reposted Tuesday morning, it tightened 1.5 points to Rams -3.5.

“We’ve taken a lot on the Niners at +3 (even money), but the liability isn’t huge,” Osterman said. “Respected money on the 49ers early, but there’s been some buyback on the Rams all the way. We need the Rams for a little bit.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Philadelphia got back on track over the past two weeks, winning and cashing to tie Dallas top the NFC East. In Week 5, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) drummed the New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Minnesota hopes to end its trend thus far of alternating wins and losses. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites in Week 5 and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“The Vikings were at -3 (even), now they’re at -3.5 flat,” Osterman said of line movement for a 1 p.m. ET start. “We’re getting a lot more Eagles support from the public and a little sharp money on the Vikings. For the game, we need the Eagles, but if the Vikings cover, it would knock out a bunch of parlays.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins – Open: -3.5; Move: -4

Winless Miami gets its best chance to break through, facing another winless team in a 1 p.m. showdown of sorts. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points in Week 4.

Washington is in turmoil, firing coach Jay Gruden on Monday after an 0-5 SU start (1-4 ATS). A day earlier, the Redskins got on the board first against New England with a first-quarter touchdown, but didn’t score again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“We’ve taken some Redskins money. We were at -3.5 (even) Thursday, took a $10,000 bet on Washington and went to -3.5 flat, and now we’re at -4,” Osterman said. “We’re definitely gonna need the Dolphins. I don’t see anybody who wants to bet on the Dolphins. That’ll be a decent-size decision by the time the game kicks off.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 13


NY Yankees @ Houston

Game 907-908
October 13, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 15.336
Houston
(Verlander) 17.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, October 13

American League
New York (1-0) @ Astros
Paxton is 10-0, 2.88 in his last 12 starts, 0-0, 7.94 in his last two; he is 8-4, 3.24 in 14 starts vs Houston, and is 0-0, 5.79 in one playoff start.

Verlander is 4-1, 3.25 in his last five starts; he is 8-7, 3.55 in 22 starts vs NYY, and is 14-8, 3.20 in 27 playoff games (26 starts)

New York lost the ALCS to Houston two years ago; they haven’t been in a World Series since 2009. NYY has allowed only seven runs in winning their four playoff games this month.

Astros are in ALCS for third year in a row; they won 2017 World Series, but needed Game 5 to advance past Tampa Bay Thursday. Home teams won six of eight NY-Houston games this year, with Astros winning three of four games played here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, October 13

Trend Report

Houston Astros
Houston is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Yankees is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, October 13

Pittsburgh @ Winnipeg

Game 85-86
October 13, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
12.553
Winnipeg
11.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-135
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+115); Under

Calgary @ San Jose

Game 87-88
October 13, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
10.720
San Jose
9.560
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-115
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-105); Over

Vegas @ Los Angeles

Game 89-90
October 13, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vegas
12.552
Los Angeles
10.114
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 2 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-140
6
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-140); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, October 13

Trend Report

Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 9 games
Winnipeg is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Winnipeg is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing Pittsburgh
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing Winnipeg
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg

Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing Vegas
Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Vegas
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Vegas is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Vegas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vegas's last 9 games on the road
Vegas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vegas's last 12 games when playing Los Angeles
Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles

San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Jose is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
San Jose is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Jose's last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games at home
San Jose is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
San Jose is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing Calgary
San Jose is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
San Jose is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Calgary Flames
Calgary is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Calgary is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Calgary is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 15 games on the road
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
Calgary is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing San Jose
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Calgary is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Jose

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) at WINNIPEG (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/13/2019, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALGARY (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) at SAN JOSE (1-4-0-0, 2 pts.) - 10/13/2019, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 6-2 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 6-2-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VEGAS (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/13/2019, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-5 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-5-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.7 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge



Lethbridge - Race 7

/ Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)



Claiming $2,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $4,100 • Post: 3:45P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,000 WINNERS OF 2 OR MORE RACES IN 2019 PREFERRED.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MAXI'S TAXI: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JUST ZOOM WILL DO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ZAR'S STAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an in side post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MAJOR MOMENT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" des ignation.



8

MAXI'S TAXI

2/1


9/2




5

JUST ZOOM WILL DO

5/2


9/2




3

ZAR'S STAR

10/1


9/1




4

MAJOR MOMENT

12/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

MAXI'S TAXI

8


2/1

Front-runner

80


79


80.0


66.4


59.9




3

ZAR'S STAR

3


10/1

Front-runner

71


72


0.0


66.8


58.3




4

MAJOR MOMENT

4


12/1

Front-runner

76


66


0.0


63.0


55.0




1

BIG BUDDY

1


8/1

Front-runner

69


72


0.0


62.2


53.2




2

BOOZIN TIME

2


6/1

Front-runner

73


61


0.0


54.6


42.6




5

JUST ZOOM WILL DO

5


5/2

Trailer

78


67


0.0


73.8


70.3




6

BLAZING TEMPER

6


3/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


74


0.0


59.0


50.5




7

AWESOME T

7


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


68


0.0


52.1


38.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont Park



Belmont Park - Race 4

Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) Empire 6 (.20) Races (4-9), Double Wagers



Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 93 • Purse: $62,000 • Post: 2:57P


FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JACK OF CLUBS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAPIZEARANCE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two s print prep races. JACK OF CLUBS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THEITALIANAMERICAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

TAPIZEARANCE

5/2


7/2




6

JACK OF CLUBS

2/1


9/2




1

THEITALIANAMERICAN

8/1


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

JACK OF CLUBS

6


2/1

Front-runner

0


0


55.0


65.4


58.4




1

THEITALIANAMERICAN

1


8/1

Trailer

91


66


70.2


64.5


61.5




2

TAPIZEARANCE

2


5/2

Trailer

86


84


69.4


69.4


64.9




3

FOREVER WICKED

3


12/1

Trailer

76


67


48.4


48.4


39.9




4

PRINCE OF PHAROAHS

4


9/2

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


66.4


66.4


60.4























Unknown Running Style: WILD BANKER (10/1) [Jockey: Carmouche Kendrick - Trainer: Dini Michael], TRUE PALACE (20/1) [Jockey: Reyes Luis R - Trainer: Dharamjit Darmindra], GALWAY EMPIRE (6/1) [Jockey: Franco Manuel - Trainer: Gargan Danny].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 I SPOT A CARTEL 3/1




# 6 HAWKIN SUN 5/1




# 4 IVORY BAC 6/1




I SPOT A CARTEL is my choice. This gelding is a definite contender based on his earnings per start in short events. Looks formidable versus this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Put up a very good speed figure last time out. HAWKIN SUN - Has been racing admirably and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. IVORY BAC - Seems to have a solid class edge based on the most recent company kept. Has put up formidable Equibase Speed Figures in short races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 HELOTES (ML=2/1)


HELOTES - Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. We have lots of early speed with this steed. She could wire this field. Last race at Parx Racing on August 31st was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes in this event. She should do well in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A VALIANT SPIRIT (ML=9/5), #1 TAPETE CLAIRE (ML=9/5), #5 PASTICHE (ML=5/1),

VALIANT SPIRIT - This mare hasn't had any in the money results in sprint races in the last 60 days. TAPETE CLAIRE - This runner hasn't been on the track since September 17th. Not even any workouts. PASTICHE - Hard to keep following this sort of 'hanger' horse.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #4 HELOTES on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fresno

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 71

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 MARINOS LAW 3/1




# 5 SPEEDY RIDE 9/5




# 4 DYNAMIC DUO 7/2




I think MARINOS LAW is a very good choice. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this pony look solid in this race. With Amador in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early in here. The speed fig of 71 from his last race looks very good in here. SPEEDY RIDE - This jockey and handler team has produced some sharp ROI numbers at this track. In fine fettle, and coming right back again this time around. DYNAMIC DUO - Franko has this gelding travelling well and is a solid selection based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figures recorded in sprint races lately. Franko is serious with this one, wheeling him back in next to no time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,900 Class Rating: 66

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 WOODY'S REWARD (ML=9/2)
#5 WITH WINGS (ML=4/1)


WOODY'S REWARD - Yaranga was aboard this filly last race out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. She must like the track here. Shipped in to win on Sep 17th and she looks tough once again. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice contest within the last month or so. WITH WINGS - This mare is in good physical condition, having run a strong race on September 17th, finishing second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RED STARLET (ML=3/1), #8 CONQUEST VALKYRIE (ML=5/1), #7 TIKITACA (ML=5/1),

RED STARLET - This steed ran a mediocre fig in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's event running that rating. CONQUEST VALKYRIE - Hard to put your money on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as often as this entrant does. The speed figs are going downward. I'm not making a bet on this entrant off of that trend. Unlikely that the speed fig she notched on Sep 29th will hold up in this race. TIKITACA - Had to show me a whole lot more last time out. Never made much of an impact.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #3 WOODY'S REWARD on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



10/13/19, MTH, Race 2, 1.47 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.02 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000.
Claiming Price $16,000, For Each $1,000 To $14,000 1 lb. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES
Win, Place and Show - Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta - Daily Double (Races 2-3)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) - 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
5
Miss Mi Mi
3-1
Lopez P
Gullo Gary P.
JFE


099.4548
2
Sweetly Maid
2-1
Suarez A
Sweezey J. Kent
T


098.7944
4
Banty's Girl
9/2
Panaijo J
Synnefias Dimitrios K.
SL


096.8595
3
Mz. Foo Do
10-1
Diaz. Jr. H R
Mazza Joseph W.
W


096.5604
7
Rithm Box
5/2
Ferrer J C
Riviezzo Ralph R.




092.2068
6
Danceforthedevil
30-1
Severino V
Grullon Riquelvis




091.0313
1
Lights Down Low
8-1
Castillo I
Hogan William J
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ#
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


5
38.10
1.11
47.22
85
180
[All Surfaces] Best Finish


2
16.60
1.21
12.50
5
40
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


4
35.60
1.40
40.00
18
45
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] First Race After 45 Days Off


3
16.60
1.21
12.50
5
40
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


7
16.60
1.21
12.50
5
40
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


6
35.60
1.40
40.00
18
45
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] First Race After 45 Days Off


1
16.60
1.21
12.50
5
40
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland



10/13/19, KEE, Race 1, 1.05 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $27,000.
Claiming Price $50,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3-Pick 5 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 - min)-Super High Five ($1 min)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
8
Not Fade Away
7/2
Geroux F
Cox Brad H.
TW


098.6652
7
Island Song
3-1
Lanerie C J
Kenneally Eddie
SFE


098.5372
3
Starting Point
7/2
Ortiz J L
Mott William I.
J


096.5893
1
Alex's Strike
10-1
Leparoux J R
Catalano Wayne M.
C


094.8519
4
Speed Effect(b+)
6-1
Doyle S
Sisterson Jack




094.7899
2
Go for Jim(b+)
10-1
Hill C
Romans Dale L.
L


093.7715
5
He's the Souperwon
8-1
Carroll D
Casse Mark E.




093.5302
6
Majors Vindication
5-1
Court J K
Fires William H.




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to KEE.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
WPC
Win#
Occ#
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


8
64.20
1.41
39.74
31
78
[All Dirt] Best Workouts


7
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3


3
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3


1
26.60
1.55
33.33
8
24
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Route With Sprint Today


4
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3


2
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3


5
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3


6
24.60
1.14
32.97
30
91
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three NFL Picks 10/13

100* Cowboys -7
100* Cardinals +2.5
100* Over 54.5 Chiefs/Texans