Sunday 10-27-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 4-8
Against the Spread 4-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-5-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 63-39-1
Against the Spread 43-58-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 45-57-1
Against the Spread 37-64-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 49-53-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Saints (+4.5, ML +190) at Bears, 36-25
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) at Giants, 27-21
Ravens (+3, ML +135) at Seahawks, 30-16

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-6) vs. Raiders, 42-24
Jaguars (-4.5) at Bengals, 27-17
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos, 30-6
Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles, 37-10
Rams (-3) at Falcons, 37-10

A Little East Coast Swing

-- The Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) kick the road and took care of the New York Giants by a 27-21 score, as rookie QB Kyler Murray outdueled fellow first-year QB Daniel Jones in the raindrops left over from the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor. The Cardinals have now won and covered three in a row, and they're 3-3-1 SU and 5-2 ATS overall. The 'under' cashed for the second time in three trips to the Eastern Time Zone for the Cards, too. They make on final trip in Week 10 to the Eastern Time Zone, and that's after the clocks change, too, when they meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The San Francisco 49ers (-10) also headed east and were stuck in the muck and mire at FedEx Field in Landover, Md. against the Washington Redskins. In fact, this game was played on a natural grass surface, as opposed to the field turf at MetLife Stadium, so it was even more sloppy and muddy. The game featured no touchdowns on either side, and just three field goals by the 49ers, serving as yet another reminder to always double-check the weather before finalizing those wagers each week. The 49ers have been to the Eastern Time Zone three times in the first seven weeks, hitting the 'under' twice. They return one more time to the Eastern Time Zone in Week 13 when they battle the Baltimore Ravens.

Another west coast team visiting the Eastern Time Zone was the Los Angeles Rams against the Atlanta Falcons. Under the dome, the Rams and Falcons needn't worry about weather-related issues, but this game hit the 'under'. It was actually no fault of the Rams, as they racked up 37 points, but the Falcons lost QB Matt Ryan (ankle) to an injury in the second half, and they managed just 10 points to go well 'under' (54.5) the total. Like the other two NFC West teams above, the Rams have hit the 'under' twice in three trips East, with one more trip to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers on Week 10 after a bye.

Huge Shock

-- If you were holding a Los Angeles Chargers (+2) ticket you're probably still shaking your head. The Bolts worked it all the way down to the 1-yard line of the Tennessee Titans inside the final minute. A long play to RB Austin Ekeler was ruled down at the 1 after instant replay. Then, RB Melvin Gordon ran it in, only to be ruled down short of the goal by replay. He got another crack at it and fumbled short of the line, as the Titans held on for the 23-20 victory. At least the total wasn't also in play, too.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Rams-Falcons (54.5) game, which went well under. The other four games on the board with totals of 48 or higher also went under, including the Cardinals-Giants (50) battle, the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos (49.5) game with a total of just 36 points, and the Baltimore Ravens-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) contest which had a total of 46 points.

The gift of the day was in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals (44), as the Bengals were overmatched all day, but they kept fighting to the end for 'over' bettors. QB Andy Dalton scored a late rushing touchdown with :23 remaining, cutting the lead to 27-17, putting the total over by just a half-point at some shops, and an unfortunate push at others. In fact, if Scott Van Pelt includes NFL in bad beats this week on his ESPN segment, this game HAS to be on there. In fact, there were just 27 total points on the board until Jacksonville had a pick-six with 4:18 to go.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (37) game. This game was supposed to be a snoozefest, but the Saints nearly took care of the over themselves. For the most part this game was out of hand, although the Bears actually successfully covered an onside kick late, and nearly had a second one, making things interesting at the end. When the dust clear, there was a total of 61 points on the board, the third-highest total of points in any game on the schedule.

-- The 'under' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 7, with the Monday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 5-16 (23.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) dislocated his kneecap and he is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks after exiting Thursday's game in Denver on a quarterback sneak. Enter QB Matt Moore for head coach Andy Reid, who has had success with backup quarterbacks before.

-- As mentioned, Matt Ryan (ankle) left Sunday's game and he is set to have an MRI on Monday to determine the severity.

-- Lions RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) exited early and he will have further testing to determine his availability for Week 8.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) left Sunday's game in Detroit due to a hamstring issue, and he will have a precautionary MRI. He feels optimistic he'll be ready for Thursday's game against the Redskins.

Looking Ahead

-- Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will face his former team, the Redskins, on Thursday night in a home battle at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on a Thursday, while the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday.

-- The Seahawks travel east to meet the Falcons, and they might be facing QB Matt Schaub if Ryan isn't ready to go. Unlike those teams mentioned above, Seattle has hit the 'over' twice in their two trips into the Eastern Time Zone already this season. Seattle has alternated non-covers and covers in their first seven games, going 3-4 ATS so far.

-- The winless Bengals and Rams will square off at Wembley Stadium in London in the third International Series game of the season. The favorite/undedog is 1-1 SU/ATS so far through the first two games in London, but the 'over' has cashed in each of the two England games. The last time the Bengals were in England they tied the Redskins 27-27 at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 30, 2016. The Rams lost at Twickenham Stadium in that same season a week earlier by a 17-10 count to the Giants. They're 1-2 SU/ATS in their three previous U.K. battles.

-- The Bills hit their first 'over' of the season in a win over the Dolphins in Week 7. The Bills and 49ers have the most 'under' results at 5-1. Buffalo hosts Philadelphia in Orchard Park on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Niners host the Panthers coming off a bye.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 8 opening odds and early moves: With Chiefs minus Mahomes, Packers are road faves
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes won't be slinging for Kansas City against Green Bay in Week 8 and likely a couple weeks beyond that. The Chiefs opened as 3-point home underdogs for the Sunday night clash.

Week 8 of the NFL season is on deck, featuring an NFC-AFC clash that’s missing one of the league’s biggest stars. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Under the Sunday night lights, Kansas City won’t have prime-time quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a dislocated knee in the second quarter at Denver in Week 7. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) still went on to win easily 30-6 as 3-point favorites behind backup Matt Moore, but will most certainly face a stiffer challenge minus Mahomes this week.

Green Bay stubbed its toe at home in the Week 4 Thursday nighter, but has otherwise been spotless this season. The Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) rolled over Oakland 42-24 as 5.5-point favorites in Week 7.

The opening number was a healthy distance away from last week’s look-ahead line for this contest.

“The look-ahead number was Chiefs -4 before the Mahomes injury,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “We reopened with Green Bay a 3-point fave. Keep an eye on the other players Kansas City has been missing the last few weeks. They have a number of other key veterans that should be back soon.”

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

New Orleans was without Drew Brees the past five weeks, yet went 5-0 SU and ATS in that stretch to stand atop the NFC South. The Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) went off as 4-point underdogs at Chicago in Week 7 and emerged with a 36-25 victory.

Arizona is coming along much better than expected under rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-3-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) nabbed a 27-21 road win over the New York Giants catching 3.5 points to win and cash for the third straight week.

There’s a chance Brees returns this week from a thumb injury, but Murray thinks that might be more talk than anything else.

“We opened this game Saints -7.5 and are up to -8.5,” Murray said. “I don’t see the Saints pressing Brees into action here. They have been winning without him and have a bye next week.”

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

San Francisco is one of just two remaining undefeated outfits, joining New England in that respect. The 49ers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) battled through the rain at Washington in Week 7, slogging out a 9-0 victory as 10-point faves.

Carolina ripped off four consecutive SU and ATS wins without Cam Newton, who’s been out with a foot injury. The Panthers (4-2 SU and ATS), coming off their bye week, rode backup Kyle Allen to a 37-26 Week 6 win laying 2 points at Tampa Bay.

“The 49ers are 6-0 SU, but they’re going to need more from their offense to keep winning deep into the season,” Murray said. “The Panthers are coming into this game off their bye week. It could be a tricky spot for San Francisco.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

One team is putting itself in playoff position, the other is sub-.500, but it’s a bit of a surprise as to who’s who.

Buffalo is out to a 5-1 SU start (4-2 ATS), with the only loss a more-than-respectable setback to New England. The Bills struggled through three quarters against winless Miami, but scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 31-21 giving a hefty 17 points at home.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia dropped two in a row and four of its last six to fall to 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Eagles went to Dallas as 3-point underdogs and got run 37-10 in the Week 7 Sunday nighter.

“It’s off the board now, but we opened Bills -1.5,” Murray said, noting this game was taken down ahead of Philly’s Sunday night loss, but it will go back up Monday morning. “The Eagles are on the third of three straight tough road games, after playing at Minnesota and at Dallas the last two weeks. The Eagles need to get healthy quickly, or they will fall out of the NFC playoff picture.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Sunday, October 27

Seattle @ Atlanta

Game 257-258
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
129.114
Atlanta
122.594
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-3 1/2); Over

LA Chargers @ Chicago

Game 255-256
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
129.700
Chicago
130.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 4 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+4 1/2); Over

Arizona @ New Orleans

Game 265-266
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
125.921
New Orleans
138.049
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-9 1/2(; Under

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

Game 259-260
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
120.280
Jacksonville
130.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-4 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Buffalo

Game 261-262
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
127.963
Buffalo
133.159
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee

Game 253-254
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.083
Tennessee
129.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+2 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ LA Rams

Game 263-264
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
120.030
LA Rams
136.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 16 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 12 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-12 1/2); Under

Denver @ Indianapolis

Game 271-272
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
131.828
Indianapolis
135.821
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+6); Over

NY Giants @ Detroit

Game 251-252
October 27, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
123.385
Detroit
132.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 9 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 7
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-7); Under

Carolina @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
October 27, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.555
San Francisco
139.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+6); Over

Oakland @ Houston

Game 267-268
October 27, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.367
Houston
136.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ New England

Game 273-274
October 27, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.378
New England
147.031
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 17 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-10 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Kansas City

Game 275-276
October 27, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
141.315
Kansas City
133.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 8
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 8

Giants (2-5) @ Lions (2-3-1)— Detroit lost its last three games, allowing 33 ppg; five of their six games were decided by 4 or fewer points- three of their last four games went over. Lions are 14-6-2 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite. Giants lost last three games, allowing 30 ppg; they turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games- four of their five losses are by 14+ points- under is 3-1 in their last four games. Under Shurmur, Giants are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs, 1-2 this year. Teams split last eight series games, with last three decided by 11+ points; Giants won four of last five visits to the Motor City- last one was in ’14. NFC East teams are 5-13 ATS outside their division, 2-2 as road dogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2.

Buccaneers (2-4) @ Titans (3-4)— Tampa Bay is playing its 4th straight game away from home, allowing 36 ppg in first three (1-2); their last four games went over the total. Bucs are 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games, 5-7-3 in last 15 games as road dogs; they converted only 8 of last 26 3rd down plays. Tennessee won Tannehill’s first start for them; he averaged 9.6 yards/pass attempt LW; Mariota’s best ypa this year is 8.4. Under Vrabel, Titans are 1-4-1 ATS as home favorites. Titans won nine of 11 series games, losing in ’83/’07; Bucs are 0-3 in Tennessee, losing by 3-20-6 points. NFC South teams are 8-12 ATS outside the division, 5-4 as road dogs; AFC South teams are 11-6, 2-3 as home favorites.

Chargers (2-5) @ Bears (3-3)— Chargers lost five of last six games, with all five losses by 7 or fewer points; they got stopped on 1-yard line with game on line in last minute in Nashville LW. Under Lynn, Bolts are 6-2-1 ATS as road underdogs. Bears allowed 15 or fewer points in their wins, but 24-36 in last two games; they’re 7-2 as home faves under Nagy (1-2 TY). Chicago threw 54 passes LW, ran ball seven times; they’ll run ball in this game. Bears won six of last seven series games, winning last four meetings here, last three by 11+ points. Chargers’ last win here was in 1970 (20-7), when Gary Garrison caught two TD passes from John Hadl. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2.

Seahawks (5-2) @ Falcons (1-6)— Atlanta lost its last five games, has bye looming, which could spell the end for former Seattle assistant Quinn. Ryan hurt his foot at end of LW’s game; Schaub (47-45 as NFL starter) is the backup. Falcons are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a home dog, 1-1 this year- they allowed 41.3 ppg the last three weeks. Seattle scored 29 ppg in winning its three road games; they are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as road favorites. In their two losses, Seahawks gave up three defensive TD’s and a punt return TD. Falcons won six of last eight series games, with last meeting a 34-31 Seahawk win in 2017. NFC West road teams are 10-1 ATS outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-6, 2-2 as home underdogs.

Jets (1-5) @ Jaguars (3-4)— Short week for Jets, who were bludgeoned at home Monday night; Jets’ last four losses were all by 16+ points- they’re 7-13-2 ATS in last 22 games as road underdogs. In their last five games, Jets converted only 9 of 61 third down plays. Jaguars are +6 in turnovers in their three wins, minus-7 in losses; they’re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. Last three years, Jags are 6-11 ATS when coming off a win. Jax beat Jets 31-12 in Swamp LY, snapping 4-game series skid, but Jets lost four of last five visits here. AFC East underdogs are 3-5 ATS outside the division; AFC South home favorites are 2-3.

Eagles (3-4) @ Bills (5-1)— Eagles lost last two games, giving up 75 points- opponents scored nine TD’s on their last 22 drives. Philly is 0-4 SU on road TY, allowing 29 ppg; under Pederson, they’re 7-9 ATS as a road underdog, 9-12 ATS coming off a loss, 2-6 in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Buffalo is 5-1 SU, with its only loss 16 -10 to the undefeated Patriots; Bills covered four of last five games where spread was 3 or fewer points- under McDermtt, they are 5-4-1 ATS as home favorites. Philly won three of last four series games, but lost three of last four trips to western NY. NFC East teams are 5-13 ATS outside their division, 2-2 as road dogs; AFC East home teams are 4-5 ATS.

Bengals (0-7) vs Rams (4-3) (in London)— Cincy coach Taylor was an assistant with the Rams LY; his Bengals allowed 250.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Bengals are 0-7 SU (3-4 ATS); only two of their seven losses were by more than 10 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Cincy games. Rams lost three of last four games despite scoring 28.3 ppg; LA is 5-1 ATS in last six games as a double digit favorite, 6-4 ATS in its last ten games vs AFC opponents. Bengals won last three series games, by 9-7-24 points, but teams only play every 4th year. NFC West teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division; AFC North underdogs are 5-4. Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 pre-bye games.

Cardinals (3-3-1) @ Saints (6-1)— New Orleans won/covered all five Bridgewater starts- they were an underdog in three of the five games. NO won its three home games, by 2-2-7 points; they’re 9-12 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite. Arizona won its last three games after an 0-3-1 start; they’re stepping up in class here. Redbirds are 5-2 ATS this year, 3-0 as road dogs; they ran ball for 174.7 yards/game the last three weeks. Saints won four of last six series games, with average total of 59.3; Cardinals lost last four visits to Bourbon Street- their last win here was in ’96. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-0 ATS; NFC South favorites are 1-5. Brees is expected to practice this week; check his status later this week.

Raiders (3-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Oakland allowed 30.3 ppg in splitting its last four games, all of which went over the total; they’re 1-2 in true road games, with average total of 56.3. Raiders are playing their 5th straight game away from home, with a bye week in middle- they’re 4-14-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Rodgers averaged 13.2 yards/pass attempt against them LW. Houston won two of last three games despite allowing 28.7 ppg; they’re 7-9 ATS in last 16 games home favorites. Teams split last eight series games; Houston won last meeting 27-14 in ’16 playoffs. Raiders are 2-3 vs Texans here. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; NFC North home favorites are 5-2.

Panthers (4-2) @ 49ers (6-0)— Unbeaten 49ers won their last three games by combined score of 60-10, allowing only one TD on 29 drives; four of their six wins have been on road. Niners held last three foes under 100 passing yards; LW’s game in Washington was played in a downpour. Carolina won/covered all four Allen starts; they scored 71 points in last two games, due in large part to 10 takeaways in those two games (+7). Panthers are 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Carolina won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here, by 10-1-20 points; Panthers won last two meetings, 46-27/23-3. NFC South teams are 8-12 ATS outside the division, 5-4 as road dogs; NFC West home favorites are 1-6.

Broncos (2-5) @ Colts (4-2)— Denver won two of last three games after an 0-4 start; they scored only 22 points in last two games (two TD’s on last 25 drives); they’re 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Broncos are +5 in turnovers in their two wins, -6 in the five losses. Indy won four of its last five games; they’re 7-4-1 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Colts allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, 24 or less in their four wins. Denver won last two meetings 34-20/25-13, but lost six of last seven visits to Indy, winning last one 25-18 in ’17. AFC West teams are 7-11 ATS outside the division, 1-3 as road underdogs; AFC South home favorites are 2-3.

Browns (2-4) @ Patriots (7-0)— New England is 7-0, with one win by less than 16 points; they’ve allowed three TD’s on 85 drives, are 5-2 ATS this year- they’re 30-14-3 ATS in last 47 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY. Patriots are 17-4 ATS in last 21 games as a double digit favorite. Cleveland is 2-4, but both their wins were on road; they’re 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog. Browns are 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games. NE won seven of last nine series games, winning last one 33-13 in ’16; Browns lost their last four visits to Foxboro, with last one in ’13. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-4 ATS. Not to be obvious, but Kitchens vs Belichick seems like a severe coaching mismatch.

Packers (6-1) @ Chiefs (5-2)— Matt Moore gets his 31st NFL start (15-15), his first with KC; he’s started only five games since 2011. Chiefs had three extra days to prep for this; how much will their offense regress with Mahomes on the bench? Under Reid, Chiefs are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Rodgers averaged 13.2 yards/pass attempt in 42-24 win over Oakland LW; Packers are 11-9 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite- they’re 2-0 on road this year, winning by 10-7 points. Four of Green Bay’s last five games went over. Rematch of Super Bowl I; Chiefs won six of last eight meetings, losing three of last four visits to Arrowhead. NFCNorth teams are 8-4-1 ATS outside the division, 1-2-1 as road favorites; AFC West underdogs are 2-3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 8

Trend Report

Sunday, October 27

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games
Chicago is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Chicago is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Chargers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
LA Chargers is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
LA Chargers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Arizona
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 6-16-1 SU in its last 23 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Seattle
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 16 games
Seattle is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-10-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
NY Giants is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Detroit
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games
Jacksonville is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games at home
Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Jets
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing NY Jets
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
NY Jets is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
NY Jets is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
LA Rams is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home
LA Rams is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
LA Rams is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing LA Rams

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
Indianapolis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games when playing Denver
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Denver is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Denver's last 16 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Francisco's last 18 games when playing Carolina
San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Carolina
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Carolina's last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Houston Texans
Houston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Houston

New England Patriots
New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing New England

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City's last 15 games
Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Green Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 22 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, October 27

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NY GIANTS (2 - 5) at DETROIT (2 - 3 - 1) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 4) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 54-29 ATS (+22.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (2 - 5) at CHICAGO (3 - 3) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 127-93 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 127-93 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 102-73 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (5 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 6) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (1 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 4) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (5 - 1) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (0 - 7) vs. LA RAMS (4 - 3) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 198-242 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 198-242 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 152-191 ATS (-58.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-105 ATS (-44.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 3 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 1) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (3 - 3) at HOUSTON (4 - 3) - 10/27/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 148-185 ATS (-55.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (4 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 0) - 10/27/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 120-88 ATS (+23.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) - 10/27/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 0) - 10/27/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-102 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-102 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 205-148 ATS (+42.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 197-148 ATS (+34.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-86 ATS (+33.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 119-89 ATS (+21.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (6 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/27/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 112-83 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 196-141 ATS (+40.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

251NY GIANTS -252 DETROIT
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after going over the total in the last 2 seasons.

251NY GIANTS -252 DETROIT
Matt Patricia is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after going over the total (Coach of DETROIT)

253TAMPA BAY -254 TENNESSEE
TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

255LA CHARGERS -256 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 13-30 ATS (-20 Units) in home games after 2 straight overs since 1992.

257SEATTLE -258 ATLANTA
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

259NY JETS -260 JACKSONVILLE
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

261PHILADELPHIA -262 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

263CINCINNATI -264 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

265ARIZONA -266 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

267OAKLAND -268 HOUSTON
OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. in the last 3 seasons.

269CAROLINA -270 SAN FRANCISCO
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the last 3 seasons.

271DENVER -272 INDIANAPOLIS
DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight unders in the last 3 seasons.

273CLEVELAND -274 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 in the last 2 seasons.

275GREEN BAY -276 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 ATS (10.4 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 27

N.Y. GIANTS at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men just missed vs. Patriots but still 7-3 last 10 as road dog. Lions 4-1 vs. line last five TY. NY also “over” last five on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

TAMPA BAY at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
TB 3-5-3 last 11 vs. spread away from home, but Titans 1-4 vs. line last 5 and 2-5 vs. spread last seven at home. Vrabel also on 4-9 spread skid since mid 2018. Bucs now “over” 6-2 last 8 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Bucs and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts 12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 as reg season visitor outside of LA city limits. Also “under” 7-2 last 9 since late 2018. Bears “under” 10-3 last 13 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered in first seven Seattle games TY (Hawks 3-0 vs. line away), Hawks have now covered 8 of last 9 away from CenturyLink Field. Falcs 1-6 vs. line TY, 3-12 last 15 on board. Seattle also “over” 8-3 last eleven since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

N.Y. JETS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Patriots on Monday, Jets 4-11-1 last 16 vs. points since mid 2018. Jags 3-6 last 9 as chalk (1-1 TY), also “under” 6-1 last 7 at TIAA Bank Field.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 5-10 vs. spread last 15 reg season games. Bills on 6-2 spread uptick since late 2018. Buff also “under” 5-1 TY and 7-2 last 9 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Bills and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI vs. L.A. RAMS - at Wembley Stadium, London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams have covered first four away TY and six straight as visitor since late 2018. Bengals however 6-2 last eight as dog (3-2 TY), 7-1 last 8 vs. spread away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at NEW ORLEANS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards “over” 5-3 last seven since late 2018 and have covered last four on road. Saints have covered last five with Bridgewater at QB and “”over” 4-1 last five at Superdome.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DENVER at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos “under” 14-2 last 16 since mid 2018 and 3-8 last 11 vs. spread since late 2018. Colts “under” 7-5 last 12 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Panthers have won and covered last four and Rivera has covered 3 of last 4 off of bye. Carolina also 18-9 as dog since 2015 and “under” 4-2 last six as visitor. Niners 4-1 vs. line TY and “under” 10-5 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

OAKLAND at HOUSTON (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Texans tough vs. line away but only 5-9 last 14 vs. number at NRG. Also “under” 5-1 last six at home. Raiders have covered two of last three away.
Tech Edge: Raiders and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Brownies 5-2 vs. line last seven away, 6-3 last 9 as dog. Belichick 13-4 vs. line at home since mid 2017. Pats “under” 13-3 last 16 reg season after Jets on Monday.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 2-7 last 9 vs. line at home. Pack “under” 5-3 last 8 away, Chiefs “under” 6-3 last 9 at Arrowhead.
Tech Edge: Packers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Packers at Chiefs
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It turns out that maybe I wasn't the only one who questioned the authenticity of Carson Wentz being a legitimate #1 QB in this league last week, as after that brutal performance by the Eagles – from top to bottom – there was much more chatter and criticism directed Wentz's way.

What made me laugh though was HC Doug Pederson's post-game press conference comments about “the Eagles all needing to look in the mirror” to essentially get things fixed. That comment fits oh so well with my metaphor of Wentz being the “Dorian Gray” of the NFL, and being so vain that it's simply about 'looking' the part at all times with this team. We will see if the Eagles are able to turn things around or if the wheels are about to completely fall off of their 2019 season, and early action this week for their game in Buffalo has already come the Bills way.

But this piece is all about SNF games and this week we've got a non-conference showdown that lost much of it's bite with the QB Patrick Mahomes injury a week ago. I'm sure SNF producers were salivating at the potential of this matchup when the schedule came out, but it's only Aaron Rodgers coming to the party now and much of that excitement has probably waned. That doesn't mean this can't be a great game between two potential Super Bowl candidates, as Matt Moore isn't thrust into duty in a relatively unprepared manner this week, and Packers fans are hoping Aaron Rodgers and company continue to do their thing.

So let's get right into the game, and I assure you there won't be any literature metaphors bleeding into the analysis this week.

Total Talk

The total is actually the better betting option of the two (side or total) for this game in my view and it's where the bulk of my focus will be.

Yes, everyone knows that SNF games are still perfect to the 'under' this year after Philly and Dallas couldn't climb over their number in a ho-hum 2nd half after putting up 34 points in the first 30 minutes. That makes it a perfect 0-8 O/U on the season for Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth and the SNF crew, a run that's rather absurd and phenomenal all at the same time.

It's that run that will get talked up plenty this week as we've got a backup QB in Moore going, and with the bigger chunk of that perception being more about Mahomes being gone, I'm sure you will hear plenty of support for going low on the total this week. After all, the 'over' has yet to cash on SNF, and backup QB's are backup QB's for a reason right. A number that was sitting as high as 49.5 at some places earlier in the week is already sitting at 47.5 at the time of this writing, and I'm sure we could see it trend even lower.

Now one thing I do believe supports the low side here is the theory that going low on a total with a team that scored 40+ points the week prior (Green Bay) is something to consider. But outside of that, and the completely random SNF 'under' record, that's about it. If you want to follow the herd all across the grid looking to go 'under' this total, then by all means do so. But give me a chance to at least provide some counter points.

To start, non-conference games like this are ones where I believe you generally want to lean 'over' in terms of a blind/initial reaction because there just isn't the hatred or ingrained knowledge of what opponents run as there is in conference/division games. The last three weeks alone we've seen AFC/NFC games post a 8-6 O/U record blind as it is.

Taking it a step further, non-conference games the past four weeks have averaged 49.2 points per game when you eliminate those contests that featured both sides having losing records (as of today). That eliminates the “thriller” between Washington and Miami for one – a game that finished with 33 points, as well as a 37-point effort by the Jets/Eagles, and a 34-point effort from Tennessee and Atlanta.

That's quite the number in regards to where this week's total currently sits at 47.5, and it includes games like the 19 total points New Orleans and Jacksonville had in Week 6, as well as the 34-point effort from the Cleveland/San Francisco MNF game a few weeks back.

Furthermore, when you narrow things down to just the past three weeks and only include AFC/NFC games between teams that are currently .500 or better in the standings, you get a 2-1 O/U record with an average point total of 52.33 points. Obviously that's not the biggest sample size, but this Green Bay team accounted for most of that production and considering they are involved in this game, it is worth consideration.

Moreover, If you were to look at all the AFC/NFC games the past four weeks that featured a team that currently has 5 or more wins like both the Packers and Chiefs do, you'd get an average point total of 47.25 points – right on this number right.

But eliminate that Saints/Jags game with 19 points featuring Teddy Checkdown – I mean Bridgewater – and all of a sudden that number bumps up to 51.28 points per game over the past four weeks; going 4-3 O/U in the process. The past two weeks alone – again omitting that Saints/Jags game – is 3-1 O/U with an average of 55.25 points scored. Oh, and the two games that had either the Chiefs or Packers involved finished with at least 64 points.

Finally, you can zero in on the two respective teams involved in this game and see plenty of reasons – even with Matt Moore under center – that can lead to points being put up.

Kansas City's defense is still among the bottom four teams in the entire NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (148.9) with just Cleveland and the winless Dolphins and Bengals being worse. They give up five yards per rush as a part of that stat line, and Green Bay may not be the first team you think of when thinking of running teams, but the Packers can use their passing attack, or just the threat of their passing attack, to open up plenty of running lanes in general and have huge days on the ground.

For KC to give up the yardage they do and only allow 21.4 points per game is about as smoke and mirrors as it gets, and considering four of the five non-division opponents the Chiefs have faced this year has put up at least 26 points on the scoreboard, you've got to like Aaron Rodgers chances of having another big offensive day.

On the flip side of things, Moore will have a gameplan that's catered to what he does well with a full 10 days to get ready for this contest, and it's not like he's incapable of finding success at this levels with all the playmakers he's got around him. He had no problem hitting WR Tyreek Hill in stride for a long TD last Thursday, and while it was only a one-off, it does show you what the kind of potential is there.

Green Bay's defense ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in rushing yards allowed as well (128.9 per game), and at 381 yards allowed per game overall, they are the worst NFL team in that category that currently has a winning record – KC isn't much better with 377.4 yards allowed per game. So there is plenty of smoke and mirrors on Green Bay's defense as well, as they've allowed 22 or more points in four straight games themselves, and that run would be 24 or more points allowed in all four games had the Lions not settled for so many FG's and been burned by suspect calls in their MNF affair.

Had Mahomes been available for this game, this total would have been in the upper 50's at a bare minimum, and while he is the reigning MVP of the league and is a dynamic playmaker, this is far too much of an adjustment for a backup QB that has plenty of starting/playing NFL experience in his career already.

But thanks to it being a downgrade regardless, and the SNF 'under' narrative bleeding into every conversation about this game now, perception and reality don't really meet up in my eyes.

Side Spiel

Green Bay is currently laying 4 points on the road, and to be honest, I'm not sure if that's where it should be as there is just no interest from me in backing either side here. I'm sure it will be the Packers who get plenty of support from the betting public as this game inches closer, and with the Packers likely being tied into so many teasers and parlays for the day, chances are the oddsmakers will be rooting hard for KC to keep this game competitive.

Given my thoughts on the total, I would suggest that's probably going to be the case, and depending how much support Green Bay ends up getting by kickoff – VegasInsider.com betting percentages currently show about 70% support here late on Wednesday afternoon – the contrarian in me would have to side with Kansas City ATS or nothing, but 'nothing' would be a -1000 favorite right now.

Final Thoughts

For handicappers that prefer the lazy route of riding streaks for no other sake then riding a streak, this is a game I'm sure you'll here plenty of 'under' recommendations for because of the SNF 'under' record this year. But those same bettors know that all streaks come to an end, and this game between these two teams, in this perceived spot (SNF 'unders' are “unbeatable” and now we got a backup QB to boot), does feel like the perfect storm in terms of seeing this 'under' run with Michaels and Collinsworth on the mic finally come to an end.

There has been too much of an over-adjustment because of one guy, both defenses are still very suspect that they resemble a mirage, both offenses have so much scoring talent outside of the one guy who just happens to be KC's QB this week, and the narrative of SNF 'unders' being easy cashes has hit a fever pitch.

That does nothing but scream 'over' to me, and that's by far the best play for this game in my view.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


SACK TO THE FUTURE

Sunday’s match between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans will feature the Top-2 teams in the league in sacks given up. Combined, the two teams are averaging 9.7 sacks allowed per game over their last three contests and the Bucs are coming off a Week 6 showing that saw Jameis Winston get taken down seven times in Jolly Old London.

The Bucs are really struggling on the right side of the offensive line as they’re without starters Demar Dotson at tackle and Alex Cappa at guard. Even with these two in the lineup for Week 5, Tampa Bay surrendered six sacks to the New Orleans Saints. Cappa will not be available this week and Dotson is questionable.

The Titans may be able to clear the sack total themselves, but it doesn’t hurt that they gave up seven sacks themselves in Week 6 and new QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked six times in less than six quarters since his promotion. Take the Over 5.5 combined sacks.


DEAL BAKER

We had to remember this play as the subject of our fade got a breather in Week 7. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in interceptions since 2018 with 25 and has been picked off at least once in every game this year (11 in total).

The former 2018 No. 1 overall pick is last in passer rating with a clean pocket as well as last in passer rating when pressured. It’s safe to say he isn’t going to break out this slump Sunday when the Browns travel to Gillette Stadium.

The New England Patriots just made Sam Darnold, the No.3 overall pick in that same 2018 draft, see ghosts Monday and finish with a 3.6 passer rating with five turnovers. Even with the Week 7 bye, Baker and the boys are in for a world of hurt offensively versus Belichick. The Pats stop unit is making it a point to embarrass opposing QBs as their league-leading opponent passer rating of 35.6 indicates.

Making early prop predictions allows us to predict the line that we can then compare to the real prop odds when the markets open. We will take the Under on Mayfield’s passing total on any number above 214 and the Under on his completions on any number above 18.


TEXANS DEFENSE MASSACRE

The Houston Texans’ defense can’t get off the field. The Texans have the second-worst opponent third-down conversion percentage at over 50 percent and have a secondary that is allowing over three passing touchdowns a game.

The team knows they have a problem with their passing defense as they just acquired cornerback Gareon Conley from the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders must have a good understanding of Conley’s underachieving skillset as the Raiders travel to the Conley’s new home, Houston, this week.

If Conley (55.6 PFF grade) suits up Sunday, look for Derek Carr and Jon Gruden to game plan against the former teammate and a porous secondary one week after putting up nearly 500 yards of offense at Lambeau Field. Josh Jacobs is coming off his best game and the passing attack may get a little more help if No.1 receiver Tyrell Williams returns after missing Week 7.

We're taking the Over on the Raiders’ team total of 21.5.


BORN TO RUN

An offense with a quarterback in the Bottom 3 in QBR and one of the league’s best defenses passed the ball 54 times last week and ran the ball just seven times. It’s safe to say that Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears lost to the New Orleans Saints, as Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he thought his run game would be better coming out off a Week 6 bye.

Trubisky and the Bears are 5-11 when the QB throws over 30 pass attempts and 13-2 when he doesn’t. Chicago will look to get the run game going Sunday versus the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt as hosts in what can loosely be called a home stadium.

We will be waiting to see Trubisky’s passing-attempt total as well as the rushing attempt total for Bears’ running back David Montgomery when their respective markets open later in the week. We will be putting our money on the Under for passing attempts above 27 and also backing the Over on any Montgomery rushing attempt total of 15 or below.


BRONCOS ON THE HITCH POST

The Denver Broncos are in full yard-sale mode after shipping off Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco yesterday.

Last week’s lackadaisical loss to the Kansas City Chiefs may have had something to do with that, as Joe Flacco put in as much effort as Jay Cutler does lining up wide. Now the immobile quarterback will be without his No. 2 receiver ahead of the Broncos’ matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts sit on top of the AFC South, have their defensive leader Darius Leonard back, have a quarterback coming off his best game as a professional, and just won convincingly over their divisional rival. These are two teams going in opposite directions and whose locker rooms are probably polar opposites heading into Week 8.

We're riding the home favorite here and taking the Colts -6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

NFL & NBA Picks 10/27

100* Heat +6.5
100* Panthers +5.5
100* Seahawks -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 8
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Eagles at Bills (-1 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
There was plenty of hype around Philadelphia (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) to start the season as a legitimate threat to win the NFC. The Eagles have been passed by the likes of the Saints, Packers, and 49ers for that distinction, as Philadelphia needs to bounce back quickly to return to the playoff discussion. The last two weeks have been a disaster, at least from a defensive standpoint as the Eagles allowed 38 points at Minnesota and 37 points at Dallas, both losses. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road while handing Green Bay its only loss of the season back in Week 4.

The Bills (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) continue to take advantage of a weak schedule as Buffalo held off Miami as 17-point favorites, 31-21. Buffalo scored its most points in a game this season, but also allowed its most points after limiting its previous five opponents to 17 points or fewer. All five teams the Bills have beaten own losing records, including three teams that have won one game or fewer (Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets). Buffalo has failed to cover in two home victories as a favorite, while compiling a 1-4 ATS mark as chalk at New Era Field since last season.

From a totals standpoint, the Eagles have hit the OVER in four of five opportunities with totals of 50 or below, while the Bills drilled their first OVER of the season after five consecutive UNDERS.

Best Bet: Eagles 27, Bills 23

Panthers at 49ers (-5 ½, 42 ½) – 4:05 PM EST
Only two undefeated teams remain in the NFL as San Francisco (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) returns home after a 9-0 shutout of Washington. The 49ers failed to cash as 10-point favorites, but it was the third consecutive time San Francisco held an opponent to single-digits. Due to a scheduling quirk, the 49ers are hosting their first NFC foe of the season in Week 8 after beating the Steelers and Browns already at Levi’s Stadium.

The Panthers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) return from the bye week after causing seven turnovers in a 37-26 victory over the Buccaneers in London. Carolina improved to 4-0 SU/ATS since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback for the injured Cam Newton, as the former University of Houston standout has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions. The Panthers own a perfect 3-0 record on the record (including that London victory), while running back Christian McCaffrey will be happy not to see Tampa Bay, who held him to below 40 yards rushing twice, compared to averaging 137.5 yards rushing in the other four games.

Carolina is making its first visit to San Francisco since the 2017 opener when the Panthers blew out the 49ers, 23-3 as 4 ½-point road favorites. The Panthers will be tested in their next three road games as after the 49ers’ contest on Sunday, Carolina travels to Green Bay (Week 10) and New Orleans (Week 12) over the next month. San Francisco has a quick turnaround as the Niners venture to Arizona on Halloween night on Thursday.

Best Bet: 49ers 20, Panthers 16

Browns at Patriots (-10 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Besides San Francisco, New England (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) is the other unbeaten team in the NFL, which is not a surprise. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 14 points in a game this season, while pulling off their second shutout of 2019 by blanking the Jets, 33-0. New England created six turnovers, including intercepting Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold four times. The Pats have dealt with plenty of injuries on offense, but New England has eclipsed the 30-point mark six times, while outgaining three opponents by 200 yards or more.

The Browns (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) travel to Foxborough following their bye week after blowing a 14-point lead in a 32-28 home defeat to Seattle in Week 6. Cleveland has yet to win a home game this season at 0-3, but the Browns’ two victories have come away from FirstEnergy Stadium against the Jets and Ravens. In their only opportunity as an underdog of a touchdown or more this season, the Browns dropped 40 points in a blowout of Baltimore, as Cleveland is listed as a double-digit ‘dog for the first time since cashing in a 21-18 defeat at New Orleans receiving 10 points in 2018.

New England has compiled a 3-1 ATS ledger this season as a double-digit favorite, while posting an impressive 7-1 ATS mark since the start of 2018 when laying at least 10 points. The Browns and Patriots haven’t hooked up since 2016 in Cleveland when New England easily cashed as 10-point favorites in a 33-13 rout.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Browns 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 49 ½ - Giants at Lions
Detroit got its offense going last week against Minnesota, but couldn’t slow down the Vikings in a 42-30 defeat. The Lions have allowed at least 23 points in five of six games this season, while the Giants have been torched in six of seven games, by giving up 27 or more six times. Rewinding back to the Green Bay debacle two weeks ago, Detroit was limited to five field goals and one touchdown, as the Lions are moving the ball, it’s just about cashing in and these two teams can have a track meet at Ford Field.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Colts are coming off a huge divisional win over the Texans to move into first place of the AFC South. Now, Indianapolis looks to avoid a letdown against Denver, who is fresh off an ugly home loss to Kansas City last week. The Broncos dealt away their top wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco earlier in the week, but Denver did pick up a victory in its last road game at Los Angeles in Week 6. The Colts have won four of their last five games with the lone loss in this stretch coming to the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, which happened right after a home win against the Falcons.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Jaguars opened up as 4 ½-point favorites against the dismal Jets on Monday, but after New York’s performance against New England, that number spiked to seven at the Westgate Superbook by the weekend. Jacksonville owns a 4-2 ATS record with rookie Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback following last week’s victory at Cincinnati. The Jets have scored a total of 20 points on the road this season in losses to the Patriots and Eagles, but Sam Darnold makes his first away start of 2019 for New York.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The last six teams to take the field prior to hosting a Thursday night game this season have covered the spread, while the past five squads have won outright. The team in this situation in Week 8 is Arizona, who hosts San Francisco next Thursday. In fact, all five of these clubs that won all did so by double-digits, but the Cardinals (who travel to New Orleans) are the first underdog in this situation since Week 2 when the Jaguars visited the Texans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 13-0 ATS (10.65 ppg) since Oct 16, 2016 off a game as a dog where they covered.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 12, 2008 as a favorite facing a team that has rushed for at least 150 yards per game in their last three games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-1 OU (8.55 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 coming off a road game where Derek Carr threw at least 2 touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 11-0-1 OU (14.46 ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 off a game as a home favorite where they allowed more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-2 OU (-4.50 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home loss where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Eagles are 16-0 OU (+13.00 ppg) as a dog vs a team that is committing an average of 1.75-plus turnovers per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 8
Joe Williams

It's Week 8 of the National Football League regular season, as we're nearing the halfway point. It's time for another London game, and a handful of matchups featuring contenders squaring off against each other. It's also an odd week, as there are a total of ZERO division battles.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 7 6-7-1 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 49-56-1 48-57-1 48-54-4

The books were well in the black for a fourth straight time in Week 7. The totals were just 6-6-1 last week, and we've still had more under results than overs so far on the season and as we know, the public is all about rooting for over tickets.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The total has gone over in each of the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in England, so why not Wembley, too?

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were not rewarded as the over went just 6-8 in the final 30 minutes. Similar to the overall under (56-49-1) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (57-48-1) and second-half (54-48-4).

Division Bell

We had a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We had a pair of battles at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Weeks 5 and 6, and Jolly Ol' England was without an NFL game in Week 7. However, the International Series resumes on Sunday with the Bengals and Rams. The last time the Bengals played overseas they didn't win, but they didn't lose either. They played to a 27-27 tie with the Redskins back on Oct. 30, 2016 in their lone appearance in London.

As far as the Rams are concerned, they're making their fourth appearance in London in franchise history, and third in the past four seasons. The 'under' has hit in two of the three battles, including each of the two since they relocated to Los Angeles. While the 'under' is 2-1 in their past three games away from home, they'll be facing a shoddy Bengals defense which is battling several injuries in their secondary.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Oakland at Houston: 48 to 51 ½
Cleveland at New England: 46 ½ to 44 ½
Denver at Indianapolis: 43 ½ to 42
Tampa Bay at Tennessee: 47 to 45 ½
Seattle at Atlanta: 54 to 53
N.Y. Giants at Detroit: 48 ½ to 49 ½
Miami at Pittsburgh (MNF): 42 ½ to 43 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Seattle at Atlanta: Under 100%
Denver at Indianapolis: Under 86%
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville: Over 81%
Carolina at San Francisco: Under 77%
Miami at Pittsburgh (MNF): Over 74%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (71 percent) in the Cincinnati-L.A. Rams matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Green Bay-Kansas City (69 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 8

Week 7 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-3 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 1-3 12-11
AFC vs. AFC 1-0-1 10-6-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-16

Other Week 8 Action

Seattle at Atlanta: The Seahawks head east, and so far this season that has meant plenty of points. The 'over' is 2-0 in their previous two forays into the Eastern Time Zone, and they have another trip later this season on Nov. 24 in Philadelphia. For the Falcons, they cannot stop anyone lately. They have yielded at least 20 points in each of their seven games, including 34 or more points in each of the past three. The only reason the 'under' cashed last week was because they posted only 10 points. Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) left last week's game due to an ankle injury, and he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday before doing limited work Friday. If QB Matt Schaub gets the nod under center, that will hurt the potential for an over, although the defense is still very giving. The total on this game opened at 48.5 at the Circa in Las Vegas and now sits at 52.5 as of Saturday morning.

L.A. Chargers at Chicago: The Chargers have scored more than 20 points on just two of seven occasions, with the 'under' going 5-2 in L.A.'s seven outings. Their defense has been fair, allowing 24 or fewer points in six of their seven contests. In their three road games the under is 2-1, averaging 20 PPG while allowing 15.3 PPG. The Bears have struggled all season offensively, although they have showed some signs of life over the past two with 21 and 25 points respectively. The defense failed against the Saints last week, allowing 36, and the 'over' is 3-1 in the past four for Chicago. That vaunted Bears defense has simply been tiring, as they're on the field a lot, as the offense cannot sustain long drives to give them a much-needed break. This is another total that has watched the number get pushed up, from 39.5 to 41.5.

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville: The Jets entered Monday's game with a lot of promise following their win over the Cowboys, but the offense was blanked in their 33-0 setback against the Patriots. New York has averaged just 10.5 PPG, and they've only been slightly better with QB Sam Darnold under center, posting 13.4 PPG. The Jets have gone on the road twice, allowing 30.5 PPG. The Jaguars have hit the 'under' in two of their three home games, allowing 20 PPG while scoring 17.3 PPG. The 'under' is 7-1 in Jacksonville's past eight home games dating back to last season, and 9-4 in their past 13 on a grass surface.

Philadelphia at Buffalo: The Bills finally saw their first over result last week against the Dolphins after a 5-0 'under' run to start the season. Their defense has been very good this season, allowing 17 or fewer points in five of six outings. The 5-1 Bills posted 21 and 31 in two home games against the winless Bengals and Dolphins, but they managed just 10 points in the only game they played against a winning team (Patriots). The Eagles are playing in a third consecutive game on the road. The under has connected in five of their past seven games on the road.

Denver at Indianapolis: The Broncos traded one of their top receivers, wide receiever Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers, so they won't help their offense. Not that the offense was doing much with him, averaging just 16 PPG. That's the exact amount of points they put up in road games in Week 1 in Oakland, and Week 3 in Green Bay, too. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for Denver, and five of seven overall. Many thought the Colts would be in the same 'under' both when QB Andrew Luck retired surprisingly, but QB Jacoby Brissett has more than handled himself with aplomb. In three home games the Colts offense is averaging 27 PPG while allowing 26 PPG. As such, the 'over' has hit in all three games at Lucas Oil Stadium so far.

Detroit at N.Y. Giants: The Giants made the switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones in Week 3, the same week running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) went down. We finally saw both of them on the field for an entire game, but weather was a factor in rainy conditions against the Cardinals last week. Still, in parts of two games with Barkley and Jones together in the lineup, the offense has produced 53 total points. The Lions had a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2, but so far that game looks like an outlier. The over is 4-2 in their six games overall, and they have posted 27 or more points on offense in four outings overall. The defense has also coughed up 23 or more points in five of six, so this game could be a potential shootout.

Carolina at San Francisco: The Panthers return from a bye, and they're sticking with QB Kyle Allen, which isn't a surprise considering the team is 4-0 both SU and ATS with him under center. The offense has hit 34 or more points in three of the past four as well, with the 'over' going 3-1 during Allen's reign. RB Christian McCaffrey returns to the Bay Area where he starred at nearby Stanford. He could be held down by the stifling defense of the Niners, however. San Francisco's defense has allowed a total of 10 points in the past three outings, although last week's effort by the D was certainly helped out by a combination of rain, mud and the futility of the Redskins as a whole.

Oakland at Houston: This game is expected to see plenty of fireworks. The Raiders have pieced things together on offense, posting 31, 24 and 24 over their past three games. The defense is still a train wreck, but that's great news for over bettors, which have cashed in each of the past four for the Silver and Black. Oakland has allowed an average of 29.8 PPG across the past five contests. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past three for the Texans, too, as they have rolled up 35.7 PPG on offense, while yielding 28.7 PPG over the past three, giving up at least 24 in each outing.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 8, with all four home teams listed as a double-digit favorites. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at L.A. Rams (1:00 p.m. ET - London): The Bengals have hit the 'under' in each of the three games where they have been an underdog of six or more points. They're averaging 18 PPG in those three games while yielding 21.7 PPG in those contests. Overall the under is 4-2-1 for Cincinnati, who continues to miss WR A.J. Green (ankle). The Rams have registered 30, 20, 29 and 37 in their four games away from home this season.

Arizona at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The Cardinals are winning football games lately, entering the Crescent City on a three-game run. After stumbling out of the chute, rookie QB Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury's offense are starting to show tremendous improvement. During the three-game win streak the Cards have posted 26 or more points in each outing after hitting the mark once in the first four games. The Saints have been up and down without QB Drew Brees (thumb) across the past five, but they won and covered each game. The 'over' went 3-2 in Brees' absence, hitting 31 or more points in those three overs. Brees is hopeful of playing Sunday, which should help aid in the over as long as he isn't rusty.

Cleveland at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): The Browns haven't been the high-octane offense many envisioned heading into the season, going 2-4 both SU and ATS. The 'over/under' has split 3-3, while hitting the over just once in three road games when they inexplicably hung a 40-burger on the Ravens in Week 4. They have scored 13 or fewer points on three of six occasions, and they don't figure to do much against a Patriots defense coming off a shutout and allowing just 48 total points through seven games. And 14 of those points were scored by the Jets defense in Week 3, making the defense's contributions in New England that much more impressive.

Miami at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See below)

Under the Lights

Green Bay at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football lost a little bit of luster when QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) dislocated a kneecap on a sneak in Denver. QB Matt Moore vs. QB Aaron Rodgers just doesn't have the same ring to it. But it still could be a high-scoring affair, as the Packers have 23 or more points in five straight games, hitting the over in four of those outings. The Chiefs defense has been very giving, and will need to tighten up with a backup QB under center. They figure to score less points, so they need to find a way to yield fewer points, too. In three home games the Chiefs are allowing 29.3 PPG.

Miami at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Dolphins were a lot better on offense in Buffalo last week, going for a season-high 21 points in a 31-21 loss. It was their first 'over' since Week 1, and they actually helped contribute to the total as opposed to the opener when Baltimore did most of the heavy lifting. The Dolphins have averaged 18.5 PPG in the past two games on offense, posting 16 and 21. The defense has coughed up 30 or more points in five of their six games, so QB Mason Rudolph returns from concussion in a very good spot. The Steelers were able to score 24 points with a third-string undrafted rookie QB against a decent Chargers D. Imagine what they'll do with improved QB play against the winless and very giving Fins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


TATE OF THE ART

Golden Tate will face his former team the Detroit Lions this Sunday and the timing couldn’t be better for the receiver and the New York Giants’ passing attack. The Lions traded starting safety Quandre Diggs earlier in the week and top corner Darius Slay has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest.

With Diggs and Slay starting in Week 7, the Lions allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for a season-high 337 yards, 100 yards more than their season average. This week, New York will be without Sterling Shepard once again as Tate will remain the focal point of Daniel Jones’ passing attack.

Tate will have the revenge angle working for him and is on the heels of 20 catches for 182 yards and score and was responsible for 47 percent of Daniel Jones’ passing yards over the last two weeks.

Take the Over on Tate’s receiving yard total of 54.5 and Over on 4.5 receptions.


THREE-PACK OF QB RUSHING TOTALS

Russell Wilson (26.5): Wilson sits fourth among QBs with 90 yards rushing over the last four games and is 3-1 over that stretch in clearing his rushing total. Wilson isn’t passing his totals by much, but he is still cashing and will look to keep the trend going into this week's game in Atlanta as the Falcons have allowed 102 yards rushing to their last three mobile quarterbacks (sorry Jared Goff). Over 26.5 yards rushing.

Daniel Jones (18.5): Danny Dimes is 3-2 in clearing his rushing total this year as his modest lines are always susceptible to the Over in two or three rushes. Jones sits ninth amongst QBs in rushing yards and didn’t take over the job until Week 3. It helps to have teams key on Saquon Barkley as well, allowing Jones to break bigger plays when keeping on RPOs as he has 63 yards rushing in the two games with the star running back in the lineup. Over 18.5.

Kyler Murray (35.5): Murray has the second-most QB rushing yards over the last four weeks as the rookie is growing and getting more comfortable with his abilities. However, now might be a good time to get some value on the Under as the hype is starting to get loud and New Orleans is legit, holding opposing QBs to just four yards on four attempts since Week 4 (Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott). Under 35.5.


BETTING ON A BELL BREAKOUT

Le’Veon Bell is a name that we haven’t thrown around here much. Having Luke Falk run the offense didn’t help any, but the former Steeler averaged 4.12 yards a carry against the Cowboys and Patriots with Sam Darnold back under center, which is much closer to his career average of 4.3.

With J-E-T-S coming off an awful 33-0 primetime loss to the Pats, we expect New York to come out strong against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 27th-ranked rush defense who will now be without DT Marcell Dareus.

We are banking for a Bell breakout game. Take Bell’s Over 68.5 rushing yards.


THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL

We are at that time in the schedule where the weather can be a big factor. The forecast doesn’t look too nice in Buffalo for this weekend's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 100 percent chance of rain in the morning and a 60 percent at game time. Heavy winds (~27 mph) are also expected and temperature in the mid-50s.

With Buffalo averaging 20 points a game at home and the Eagles scoring 21 on the road, it will be a daunting task for either of these teams to outplay their averages in poor playing conditions. The Bills are also 4-2 o/u this year and 2-1 o/u on totals below 43 while the Eagles are 2-2 o/u on the road this year and hit the Under on their lowest total in Week 5 at 43.

We are jumping on the Under 42 and hope New Era Field looks like FedEx Field last week.

*BONUS PLAY: Under longest field goal 45.5 (-112)


LAST CALL ON CARSON

The Atlanta Falcons have the No.4 rush DVOA defense but will have a difficult time Sunday versus Chris Carson who is averaging 24.5 carries for 103 yards a game over his last four. Those last four games included a 118-yard performance versus the No. 2 rush DVOA defense.

The Seattle Seahawks won’t abandon the run, like many of the Falcons’ opponents, as they are running the ball at the third-highest rate since Week 5. Carson is the alpha-dog in the backfield hitting 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps over the last three and hitting a season-high 89 percent last week.

The Seahawks/Falcons prop markets aren’t currently open as books are waiting to see if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will suit up Sunday. Once it opens, we will take the Over on Carson’s rushing yards on any total below 85 yards.


DEFENSIVE CARE

We talked about how bad Baker Mayfield has been this year and how difficult a task he has ahead of his matchup with the best DVOA defense in the New England Patriots. Today, we are going to try to talk you into another great prop bet that is paying +200.

The Pats have scored three defensive touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league. Conversely, Tom Brady’s offense has allowed three defensive TDs while their special teams have crossed the plane twice to date.

Combine these New England stats with the fact that the Cleveland Browns are averaging three giveaways a game over the last four weeks, and we are hopping on Sunday’s prop bet of a special team or defensive touchdown scored and hitting the yes at +200.


PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE

Did you lose money on Melvin Gordon’s suck attack last Sunday? Yes, us too. We are going to focus our fade hate on the one-yard fumbler this week ahead of his match versus the Chicago Bears.

In Gordon’s 36 carries since coming back from his holdout, the runner has plodded to three-or-less yards on 27 of those carries with a long of seven yards. We may see Austin Ekeler’s snap count increase in Week 8 after seeing 59 percent last week and Gordon fumbling twice over his last 12 runs.

Want more reasons to get your revenge on Melvin? The Los Angeles Chargers’ opponent, the Chicago Bears, are fifth in the league in yards per rush attempt against at 3.6.. Hop on the hate-wagon and take Gordon’s Under on his total of 54.5 rushing yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) will not play Sunday night against Green Bay. Mahomes is worth more than a touchdown to the line, and the Chiefs are 4.5-point home underdogs.

NFL Week 8 includes a Sunday night showdown that got a little less attractive due to a big absence. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

INJURY IMPACT

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: In the Week 7 Thursday nighter, quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated knee. Oddsmakers never thought Mahomes would actually play Sunday night at home against the Packers, and that was factored into the line all week, ahead of Friday’s confirmation that he would not play.

“Mahomes is worth 8-9 points to the line,” Osterman told Covers. “It’s 8 points in this case, because the line crosses zero. If it were a line where the Chiefs were significant favorites to start off with, it would be a little more than 8 points.” The Chiefs opened +3 and stretched to +4.5, with the total going from 48 to 49, then down to 47.5.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: It sounds as if Drew Brees will return to action, after sitting out since suffering a thumb injury in Week 2. But as with Mahomes, that was factored into an opening line of Saints -7.5 against the visiting Cardinals. That number then shot up to -10.5. “The line as it is now is with Brees playing. There’s probably about a 3-point difference between him and Teddy Bridgewater.”

Saints running back Alvin Kamara (ankle/knee) is questionable, but even if he returns, Osterman said the already-high number likely wouldn’t move further.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the third straight game, as he won’t play at Kansas City on Sunday night. But once again, that was built into the line, which stood at Packers -4.5 on Friday night.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan is an iron man, starting 154 consecutive games over the past decade. But he’s questionable with an ankle injury, with a decision expected Saturday for Sunday’s home tilt against the Seahawks. This line has been off the board all week. “With Matt Ryan playing, the line will be around Seattle -3.5 to -4. Without Ryan, it will be around Seattle -7, maybe even -7.5.”

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Rookie running back Josh Jacobs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry while rushing for 554 yards through six games, has a shoulder injury and is questionable for Sunday’s contest at Houston. “I would expect Jacobs to move the line a half-point if he’s out. He has proven to be a significant piece for the Raiders.” Oakland is a 6.5-point underdog.


WEATHER WATCH

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: There’s a very strong chance of Sunday rain in Foxboro, along with winds of 10 to 20 mph. “The total is down a half-point. I would expect it to move another half-point if the forecast (Saturday) shows more potential for rain.” In fact, after opening at 45.5 and dipping to 45 early Friday afternoon, the total ticked to 44.5 later Friday afternoon.

PHILADELPHIA AT BUFFALO: New Era Field has a 60 percent chance of seeing precipitation, and winds of 20 to 30 mph are also expected. “There’s definitely some cause for concern in the kicking game. The total has gone down a half-point, and I’d expect it to drop more, depending on the wind speed.” The total was at 42 Friday.


PROS VS. JOES

CLEVELAND AT NEW ENGLAND: The Patriots opened -10, shot to -13, then dropped to -10.5 by lunch hour Friday in Vegas. “We took a bet from a really sharp player on Browns +12. The public is all over the Pats, like always.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened -6.5 and were down to -5 Friday morning. “The Colts are our leading ticket-count team and have the most parlay bets of any team on the board, but the line has moved in Denver’s favor.” So the public is on Indy, while the wiseguys played Denver.


REVERSE LINE MOVES

CAROLINA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers dropped from -6.5 to -5.5, thanks to sharp play on the Panthers. But more money – no surprise, public action – is on the unbeaten 49ers at The SuperBook.

CINCINNATI VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS: In this London clash at Wembley Stadium, the Rams opened -13 and dropped to -11.5, though more cash is on L.A. “The public will bet almost any team against the Bengals,” Osterman said, noting the defending NFC champion Rams aren’t just any team. “Some sharp money on the Bengals.”

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT CHICAGO BEARS: “We’re seeing the parlay money show up on the Bears, but the line has dropped significantly. We’re down to Bears -3.5, from -6.”

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS: As noted above in Pros vs. Joes, there's more money for the Colts, but the line moved toward Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA



ZIA - Race 10

$1 Exacta / .50 Cent Trifecta / Ten Cent Superfecta / 2nd Leg Pick 4 1st Leg .50 Cent Pick 3



Stakes • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $185,000 • Post: 4:03P


ROCKY GULCH NEW MEXICO CLASSIC CUP CHAMPIONSHIP S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED. NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY.STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $500. $2,000 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. $185,000 GUARANTEED ( INCLUDES $95,000 FROM THE NMHBA FUND). TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNING OWNER,20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5%TO FOURTH ,3% TO FIFTH AND 2% TO SIXTH .WEIGHTS:THREE YEAR OLDS 120 LBS. OLDER 123 LBS. NON WINNERS OF SWEEPSTAKES IN 2019 ALLOWED 3 LBS.STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX AT THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THIS RACE WILL BE LIMITED TO TWELVE (12) STARTERS WITH PREFERENCE TO HORSES WITH THE HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2018-2019. TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HUSTLE UP is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BLAZING NAVARONE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Po wer Rating. HUSTLE UP: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. GO FOR A STROLL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" des ignation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



7

BLAZING NAVARONE

3/1


5/1




10

HUSTLE UP

4/1


5/1




1

GO FOR A STROLL

5/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




10

HUSTLE UP

10


4/1

Front-runner

86


90


97.6


77.2


67.2




7

BLAZING NAVARONE

7


3/1

Stalker

95


102


77.8


86.6


81.6




4

SHINING SOURCE

4


10/1

Stalker

92


90


69.0


85.2


79.7




2

THUNDER DOME

2


6/1

Trailer

90


77


77.5


86.4


77.9




8

GOLLY GEE

8


12/1

Trailer

83


78


74.2


74.2


58.7




1

GO FOR A STROLL

1


5/1

Trailer

97


94


59.3


85.4


80.9




11

M G MS VICTORY RUN

11


15/1

Trailer

82


79


58.4


78.8


63.8




9

DOM STRAIT

9


30/1

Trailer

79


73


45.3


60.4


43.9




3

QUITE PEACE

3


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

82


80


72.3


70.2


54.2




6

MR. DIGGER

6


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


74


67.2


73.2


56.2




5

MR. WILD ROCKETE

5


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

90


86


61.2


73.2


57.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 5

Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quinella / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6



Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:30P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 27, 2018 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. A CLASF. INFERIORES Y DEB. ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * A LITTLE COUNTESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top thre e in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ELIF: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. EPIPHANY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desig nation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



12

A LITTLE COUNTESS

9/2


9/2




9

ELIF

2/1


5/1




6

EPIPHANY

4/1


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

CRAZY RAHFEE

8


5/1

Front-runner

53


46


54.6


34.6


25.1




9

ELIF

9


2/1

Front-runner

63


53


54.2


47.6


42.1




6

EPIPHANY

6


4/1

Front-runner

68


50


41.0


40.4


35.4




3

ADAMAS DREAM

3


3/1

Front-runner

46


44


39.8


42.6


28.6




11

LUCKY LIGHT

11


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

58


47


31.4


42.2


31.2




12

A LITTLE COUNTESS

12


9/2

Alternator/Stalker

66


60


28.8


49.6


41.6




5

LADY JOYFULL

5


10/1

Alternator/Trailer

61


49


20.4


26.8


13.8




7

SUM ROMANCE

7


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


44.4


24.4


8.9




2

MANANA

2


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


38.8


22.2


4.2




1

RIZZIGIRLRUBYRED

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

43


38


24.6


20.2


2.2




4

TWO ON TAP

4


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

37


24


18.6


18.4


1.9




10

PRINCESA D

10


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 86

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 L BAR D TOP PROSPECT 4/1




# 3 KR RED HAWK 5/2




# 1 BABYBLUEDASH 5/1




L BAR D TOP PROSPECT looks solid to best this field. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 81 speed figure which is one of the top in this group. This gelding has a good winning percentage in short races. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race. KR RED HAWK - Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. Her 83 average has this filly with among the best speed figures for this event. BABYBLUEDASH - Has recorded reliable speed figures in short races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Monmouth Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:07pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $59,375 Class Rating: 55

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 MORNING JACKPOT (ML=2/1)


MORNING JACKPOT - Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this mount has strong pace. This horse's last race was out at Monmouth Park in a race with a class number of 65. Dropping a significant amount in class rating this time puts him in a solid position in today's race. I like to bet on this angle, a pony coming back off a nice race within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MISMEYET (ML=7/2), #4 ONE MORE NIGHTCAP (ML=4/1), #5 DANTASTIC (ML=6/1),

MISMEYET - Showed very little in the last affair. Really no reason to expect any betterment today. ONE MORE NIGHTCAP - In all probability won't make much of a mark in today's event. DANTASTIC - The finish position of eighth in the last race shows me that this horse may be getting out of condition.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MORNING JACKPOT - One of the class angles that my buddy Solo and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is tops in my book.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 MORNING JACKPOT to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 45

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



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# 2 IT'S THEATRE TIME 5/1




# 6 BURBANK ROSE 2/1




# 1 YUKON MIST 12/1




IT'S THEATRE TIME looks very good to best this field. Sarmiento has solid numbers that point to this filly to be a sharp contender. Appears to have a respectable class edge based on the recent company kept. Last time out, this filly ran against a much tougher bunch. BURBANK ROSE - With one of the best jocks in terms of returns at the window, don't count this filly out. Rycroft has her trained soundly to break sharply out of the gate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




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Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 MINNIE MINOSO (ML=5/2)
#1 RANDY'S BOY (ML=7/2)


MINNIE MINOSO - That last contest must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. Dropping in class rating points from his October 19th race at Turf Paradise. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this one the advantage. RANDY'S BOY - Ran last out against much better horses at Turf Paradise. The move down the class scale should suit him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MAGIC BRO (ML=3/1), #3 SUMMER BUDDHA (ML=9/2), #7 SARCILLO (ML=5/1),

MAGIC BRO - Don't think this questionable contender has what it takes to win in today's event. SUMMER BUDDHA - Difficult to take this pony at the odds after the result (seventh) in the last event. The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued contestant. SARCILLO - I find it hard to wager on this racer today. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you invest in him in a race of 6 1/2 furlongs. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to record a better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #2 MINNIE MINOSO to win if you can get odds of 8/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park



10/27/19, SA, Race 6, 3.04 PT
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Claiming Price $32,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered) (Non-starters For A Claiming Price Of $16,000 Or Less In Their Last Start Preferred). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) - $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $0.50 Jackpot Super High 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Winning Element
3-1
Bejarano R
O'Neill Doug F.
TEWL


097.1053
2
Arch Anthem
6-1
Prat F
Baltas Richard
J


096.6065
1
Perfectly Majestic
5/2
Velez J I
Miller Peter
SFC


096.5082
3
Forever Juanito
4-1
Fuentes R
Garcia Victor L.




095.4354
5
Tequila Joe
4-1
Talamo J
Glatt Mark




095.3515
4
Full of Luck (CHI)
6-1
Diaz. Jr. J
Miyadi Steven




094.9223
6
War Chest
12-1
Cedillo A
Meah Anna




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


2
50.20
1.14
31.46
56
178
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse Not 98.* Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse


1
50.20
1.14
31.46
56
178
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse Not 98.* Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse


3
50.20
1.14
31.46
56
178
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse Not 98.* Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse


5
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


4
63.80
1.15
39.27
86
219
[All Dirt] No 5f Workout Since Last Race


6
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
7
Winning Element
3-1
Bejarano R
O'Neill Doug F.
WL


098.5070
2
Arch Anthem
6-1
Prat F
Baltas Richard
J


098.3721
1
Perfectly Majestic
5/2
Velez J I
Miller Peter
SFEC


096.9578
3
Forever Juanito
4-1
Fuentes R
Garcia Victor L.




096.6083
6
War Chest
12-1
Cedillo A
Meah Anna




096.1675
5
Tequila Joe
4-1
Talamo J
Glatt Mark
T


096.0084
4
Full of Luck (CHI)
6-1
Diaz. Jr. J
Miyadi Steven




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


2
64.80
1.38
38.37
33
86
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance is 1m


1
53.80
1.30
37.36
34
91
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


3
64.80
1.38
38.37
33
86
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance is 1m


6
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


5
83.20
1.07
34.81
196
563
[All Surfaces] Last Race Is Same Track As Today


4
64.80
1.38
38.37
33
86
[All Dirt] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance is 1m


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West



10/27/19, GPW, Race 7, 4.17 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.21.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $45,000.
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
1
Creative Award
9/2
Torres C A
Dibona Bobby S.
TW


096.7737
3
Yes Factor
6-1
Jaramillo E
Pompay Teresa M.




096.4884
5
Dancie
12-1
Panici L
Hess. Jr. Robert B.
FE


096.4097
7
Sammie Sunshine
10-1
Zayas E J
Lerman Michael




095.9610
4
Paula Andrea
3-1
Rendon J
Sano Antonio
L


095.6925
8
Bella Ciao
8-1
Reyes L
Sano Antonio
C


095.4225
9
Trapped At Sea
15-1
Camacho S
Belsoeur Yvon
J


095.0492
6
C C's Cup of Tea
12-1
Gutierrez R
Braddy J. David




095.0103
2
Violent Trick
7/2
Martinez G A
Braddy J. David
S


094.7027
10
Untrue
12-1
Sanchez J
De La Cerda Armando




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.


Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


1
96.40
1.33
35.86
52
145
[All Surfaces] Best Workouts


3
34.40
1.32
48.15
26
54
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Favorite(not entry)


5
43.60
1.26
42.17
35
83
[All Dirt] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today


7
29.60
1.20
36.00
27
75
[All Surfaces] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today


4
34.40
1.32
48.15
26
54
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Favorite(not entry)


8
42.40
1.31
40.58
28
69
[All Surfaces] 5f Workout Since Last Race


9
34.40
1.32
48.15
26
54
[All Dirt] Last Race Was Favorite(not entry)


6
38.80
1.59
42.42
14
33
[All Surfaces] Third Race After 45 Days Off


2
33.20
1.49
29.41
10
34
[All Surfaces] Carries Apprentice Weight


10
29.60
1.20
36.00
27
75
[All Surfaces] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today