Sunday 11-3-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:47 AM

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

National Football League Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-2
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 75-41-1
Against the Spread 50-65-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 56-60-1
Against the Spread 43-72-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-61-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

Razor Thin Margin

-- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

London Fog

-- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat. RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13.

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

Looking Ahead

-- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

-- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

-- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

-- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:48 AM

Close Calls - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Most of this week’s games apply as if you won in Week 8 on sides, congratulations, almost every game could have gone the other way with many of those games certainly deserving of an opposite spread result.

Minnesota Vikings (-17) 19, Washington Redskins 9 (41½): There were eight scoring plays on Thursday night, but seven were field goals as Minnesota posted more than twice as many yards but couldn’t pull away. Washington trailed by just seven late in the third quarter and got the ball back with a stop on 4th-and-1 just outside of Minnesota field goal range. Two plays later, Dwayne Haskins was intercepted to set-up a Dan Bailey field goal early in the fourth quarter to put Minnesota up by 10. A late touchdown would be enough for most Vikings backers on a spread that opened at -14½ and only hit -17 very late in the day before kickoff. The Vikings had the opportunity and attempted to score despite Washington being out of timeouts late, but ultimately wound up stopped on 4th-and-4 from the Washington 7-yard-line in the final minute.

Detroit Lions (-6) 31, New York Giants 26 (49): The Lions had a 14-0 lead early, but Detroit has made a habit of blowing leads this season. Sure enough the Giants scored the next two touchdowns, but missed a PAT to trail by one. The Lions would stretch the edge to four by halftime and led by five through three quarters after an exchange of touchdowns in the third with the Giants failing going for two. Detroit hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to lead by 12 before New York was stopped on downs on back-to-back possessions. Detroit would go backwards on both late possessions and getting the ball back just ahead of the two-minute warning, the Giants were a backdoor threat. A 25-yard pass interference call put New York in business and with 1:19 remaining the Giants found the end zone. Down six, New York matched the closing number and opted to kick the important PAT to lose by just five.

Tennessee Titans (-2) 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (45½): The Buccaneers have appealing numbers but the consistent turnovers stand out and they came to bite in this contest with Tampa Bay posting a 389-246 yardage edge in a narrow loss. The Titans led by two at halftime after the Buccaneers went for two after a score right before the break and came up short. The Buccaneers would get eight on an early third quarter score however to lead by six. Tennessee added a late third quarter field goal to trail by three, but forced a punt with Tampa Bay unwilling to go for it on 4th-and-1 in its own territory. The Titans then nearly doubled their offensive production for the game with a 12-play, 90-yard drive to deliver the go-ahead score, slipping past the slight favorite spread with 6:55 to go as well. Tampa Bay had three more possessions that ended in a fumble, failing on 4th-and-1 in Tennessee territory, and finally a deep pass from Jameis Winston intercepted at the Tennessee 25-yard-line.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 17, Chicago Bears 16 (41): The Bears commanded this game in the numbers, but settled for three first half field goals while the Chargers got a touchdown. The scoring mode flipped in the third quarter as the Bears were able to find the end zone and led 16-10 as a slight home favorite after a Chargers field goal late in the third quarter. Mitchell Trubisky fumbled in Chicago territory on the next possession and the Chargers were able to go 26 yards for a touchdown in three plays to lead by one. Chicago had a productive drive to reach the Los Angeles 37-yard-line, but Trubisky took a 3rd down sack and the Bears had to punt. The defense got the stop to give the Bears another chance and rather than taking a few shots to get a touchdown or get closer, the Bears took a knee in the final minute and watched Eddy Pinero miss left from 41 yards.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) 27, Atlanta Falcons 20 (48½): The closing line says seven but that wasn’t an overly common price on this game. Seattle opened at -3 and held at -3½ early in the week before number jumped with Matt Ryan ruled out. Seahawks -8 was typical over the weekend as results wound up varying on this game. Multiple outcomes didn’t seem possible as Seattle led 24-0 at halftime, but Matt Schaub would prove to be a productive backup getting the Falcons 11 points in the third quarter. A Seattle field goal with about six minutes left in the game made the lead 16 and seemed safe, but Atlanta went the distance in fewer than three minutes and suddenly was within 10, failing on a two-point conversion that mattered for many. In many ways that might have been a worse outcome for Seattle backers as with a two-score lead, the Seahawks could still relax and they punted back while taking just 27 seconds off the clock. Schaub and the Falcons managed the clock well and kicked a second down field goal without using a timeout to trail by seven while still leaving more than a minute on the clock, giving many late-week Falcons backers a win. The on-side kick went out of bounds to end any further threat as Seattle held on and the total that fell throughout the week stayed just ‘under’.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) 29, New York Jets 15 (40): Jacksonville dominated this game in most ways and led 22-7 after a late third quarter field goal. An early fourth quarter touchdown with a successful two-point conversion suddenly put the Jets down just seven to land even with the common weekend number though early in the week Jacksonville opened at -4½ and was -6 to -6½ for long stretches. The Jaguars gained 30 yards on the next possession but had to punt. Hopes for a New York comeback were short-lived however with a penalty, a negative rushing play, and an interception on three snaps for the Jets. On a short field, Jacksonville found the end zone on 3rd-and-goal to go up by 14. Sam Darnold was intercepted across midfield on the next possession for the Jets while another late series ended on downs.

Los Angeles Rams (-12) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (48½): In London, the Rams got more they bargained for with the winless Bengals with a 10-10 tie late in the second quarter before a trick play gave Los Angeles a 65-yard touchdown. Out of halftime, the Rams added another touchdown to slip past the heavy favorite spread. The Bengals appeared ready to answer reaching the edge for field goal range before going backwards and needing to punt on 4th-and-long. Cincinnati held the Rams to four straight punts the rest of the game, but two late drives deep into Los Angeles territory came up empty with a field goal not being worth considering given the time and score. The Bengals couldn’t convert from the 6-yard-line with about five minutes remaining and on a late drive appeared to get the underdog cover with a touchdown with eight seconds to go. On review, the play was overturned and the Bengals came up incomplete on its last shot from inside the 10. Winning by 14 with only 24 points, Rams backers escaped with a very fortunate cover in a game where the Bengals had more than 400 total yards, but just 10 points.

New Orleans Saints (-12½) 31, Arizona Cardinals 9 (48): Arizona trailed New Orleans just 10-6 at halftime but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 form its own 30 early in the third quarter. The aggressive play was commendable as Kliff Kingsbury is breaking the mold, but the move backfired with the Saints adding a short-field touchdown to go up 17-6 a few plays later. Arizona would add a field goal and through three quarters both teams had three scores, but Arizona had only field goals. Still down one score, Arizona couldn’t get a big third down stop early in the fourth quarter and the Saints went up by 15. About halfway through the final frame, the Cardinals reached the New Orleans 27-yard-line, but a field goal did no good at that point and 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 attempts to extend the series were stopped. A deflated Cardinals defense gave up back-to-back big plays as the Saints put the game away with another touchdown with five minutes to go.

Houston Texans (-5½) 27, Oakland Raiders 24 (52): The total wound up with mixed results on this game landing right on 51 where the number sat for big chunks of the week. Oakland led this game 21-13 as a Houston win didn’t seem in play but the Texans scored in the first few seconds of the fourth quarter and just went for one to trail 21-20. The Raiders managed a field goal to go up by four before a wild sequence with Deshaun Watson delivering a go-ahead touchdown pass but appearing to be seriously injured. Up three, the Houston defense forced an Oakland punt and was a serious threat to steal the cover, but Oakland exhausted its timeouts and Houston with Watson still in the game, was ultimately able to take a knee well across midfield after the two-minute warning without needing to try to advance further or consider a late field goal.

New England Patriots (-10) 27, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): Double-digit spreads in the NFL are rarely out of play as while the Patriots were in complete control after 17-0 first quarter, a Browns cover lurked as a real possibility. Down 27-10, Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-16 deep in its own territory and went further backwards. Dealt a 14-yard field, the Patriots went backwards as well and missed on a 34-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. A touchdown would have trimmed the margin to 10, but the Browns came up just short of a 1st down on a late series in New England territory and after a false start pushed it to 4th-and-6, they opted to kick a field goal to trail by 13. The Browns would get the ball back with about a minute to go and picked up a big gain with a pass interference call but a sack followed. With no timeouts left and the clock would run out a few plays later with the game staying just ‘under’ as well.

Green Bay Packers (-5) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (48): A quick 14-0 lead for the Packers was erased in the second quarter as the Chiefs got a good performance from Matt Moore and the defense created some pressure. The Sunday night game was tied 17-17 through three quarters and 24-24 with nine minutes to go. The Packers scored on a 67-yard short pass and run from Aaron Jones to lead by seven but more than eight minutes remained. The Chiefs reached the 40-yard-line and opted to punt on 4th-and-3 with more than five minutes remaining and three timeouts left, a decision it isn’t clear they would make with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay was able to covert a pair of third downs and run out the remaining clock for the win and narrow cover.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:48 AM

NFL Week 9 opening odds and early action: Patriots-Ravens quickly draws two-way play
Patrick Everson

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have put together a 13-game win streak. New England opened -5 at Baltimore, the Ravens immediately got bet at +5 and +4.5, then New England drew a $31,045 wager.

NFL Week 9 is on deck, and the Sunday night game is already on the move. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that matchup and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England hasn’t lost since the middle of last December, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS. In Week 8, the Patriots (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore leads the AFC North at 5-2 SU after winning its last three before a Week 8 bye. In Week 7, the Ravens (2-5 ATS) snapped a five-game spread-covering slide, knocking off Seattle 30-16 as 3-point road underdogs.

“We opened Patriots -5 and saw money come in on Baltimore at +5 and +4.5,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “Then we took a bet for $31,045 on the Patriots -4. The Ravens will be a huge-need game for the books everywhere next Sunday night, especially if the afternoon games are chalky.”

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

Kansas City was without Patrick Mahomes in the Week 8 Sunday nighter, but Matt Moore and Co. gave Green Bay all it could handle. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) scored 17 straight second-quarter points to erase a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and were in it the rest of the way, losing 31-24 as 5-point home ‘dogs.

Minnesota returns from its bye week looking to build on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

With Mahomes’ Week 9 status unclear, The SuperBook held off on posting the opening number for this game. But Murray offered a little insight into where the line might land if Moore is still under center.

“It would depend a lot on the result of (the Sunday night) game and how K.C. and Moore look without Mahomes,” Murray said during the Packers-Chiefs tilt, in which Green Bay was a 5-point road chalk. “But Minnesota is considered slightly better than Green Bay, so it would be something close to what Packers-Chiefs was. Maybe a touch higher, unless K.C. wins, then a touch lower.”

That being the case, Murray said if Mahomes returns, the Chiefs will be short home favorites.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

San Francisco remained in elite company through eight weeks, sticking with New England as the only unbeaten outfits. The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) steamrolled Carolina 51-13 as 4.5-point favorites Sunday.

Arizona is better than expected this year, with a rookie coach and quarterback, but its three-game SU and ATS win streak ended in Week 8. The Cardinals went to New Orleans as 12.5-point pups and were dealt a 31-9 setback.

“We opened 49ers -7.5 and are still there,” Murray said. “Arizona will be one of the biggest needs of the week for us in the NFL. A ton of moneyline parlay and teaser wagers will start with the 49ers.”

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Philadelphia got a much-needed Week 8 win, snapping a two-game skid to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) shuffled over Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road Sunday.

Chicago looks little like the squad that last season went 12-4 SU and ATS, leading the league in spread-covers. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) held a 16-7 third-quarter advantage against the Los Angeles Chargers, but didn’t score again in a 17-16 loss laying 3.5 points at home Sunday.

“We opened Eagles -4.5 and have been bet up to -5,” Murray said. “It’s hard to imagine people wanting to bet on Chicago right now.”

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:48 AM

451HOUSTON -452 JACKSONVILLE
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

451HOUSTON -452 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

453WASHINGTON -454 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 56-31 ATS (21.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

455TENNESSEE -456 CAROLINA
TENNESSEE is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

457CHICAGO -458 PHILADELPHIA
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in the 2nd half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

457CHICAGO -458 PHILADELPHIA
Matt Nagy is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in the 2nd half of the season (Coach of CHICAGO)

459MINNESOTA -460 KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 26-11 ATS (13.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

461NY JETS -462 MIAMI
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

463INDIANAPOLIS -464 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 67-37 ATS (26.3 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.

465DETROIT -466 OAKLAND
DETROIT is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

467TAMPA BAY -468 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

467TAMPA BAY -468 SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

469CLEVELAND -470 DENVER
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

471GREEN BAY -472 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. since 1992.

473NEW ENGLAND -474 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:49 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, November 3

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HOUSTON (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 7) at BUFFALO (5 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (4 - 3) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-29 ATS (+23.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 6) at MIAMI (0 - 6) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 76-103 ATS (-37.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
MIAMI is 60-86 ATS (-34.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 3 - 1) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/3/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 53-85 ATS (-40.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 81-109 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at SEATTLE (6 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (2 - 5) at DENVER (2 - 6) - 11/3/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (7 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (3 - 5) - 11/3/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 197-141 ATS (+41.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (8 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 2) - 11/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 206-148 ATS (+43.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-148 ATS (+35.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-88 ATS (+31.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:49 AM

NFL

Week 9

Trend Report

Sunday, November 3

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Jacksonville is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Buffalo's last 25 games at home
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Carolina

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Miami

Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Oakland

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Chargers is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers

Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 17 games
Denver is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games at home
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:50 AM

NFL

Week 9

Texans (5-3) vs Jaguars (4-4) (@ London)— Season series has been swept last eight years; Houston (-7) won first meeting 13-12 in Week 2; neither team gained 300 TY, Texans’ only TD drive was 11 yards. Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last five series games. Houston won three of last four games, despite allowing 27.5 ppg; they trailed five of last six games at halftime. Jaguars allowed 17 or less points in last three games; in their wins, they’re +8 in turnovers, in losses, -7. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Texans are 13-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last four; Jaguars won three of last four pre-bye tilts. Dogs covered six of last eight series games; Texans are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a series fave. JJ Watt is out for the year.

Redskins (1-7) @ Bills (5-2)— Washington scored total of 36 points in last five games, with no TD’s on 14 drives in last two games; they’re 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Redskins’ last five games stayed under the total. Buffalo allowed 21-31 points in splitting last two games, after giving up 14 ppg in first five games; they’re 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. Since ’12, Bills are 33-25-1 ATS coming off a loss; five of their seven games stayed under total. Buffalo won six of last seven series games, losing last meeting 35-25; Redskins lost last three visits here, but also haven’t been here since ’03. AFC East favorites are 5-3 ATS this year outside the division, 3-3 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 5-2 ATS.

Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (4-3)— Tennessee scored 23+ points in their wins, 17 or less in losses (7 or less in 3 of 4 losses); they’re 2-0 in Tannehill starts, converting 11-24 third down plays- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Titans are 11-21 ATS in last 32 games as a road dog, 1-2 TY. Carolina won four of its last five games but lost two of three at home; they’re 9-11 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY. Panthers converted only 9 of last 40 third down plays; their last three games went over total. Home side lost four of last five series games; Titans won 37-17/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte. AFC South road underdogs are 8-2 ATS outside their division; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 2-5 ATS, 2-4 at home.

Bears (3-4) @ Eagles (4-4)— Eagles won last four series games, last of which was 16-15 upset (+6.5) win in LY’s playoffs, when they tipped a last-second Chicago FG to seal the win. Bears lost last two visits here, 54-11/31-3. Chicago lost its last three games overall, allowing 25.7 ppg; they won both their true road games- this is their first true road game since Week 3. Chicago is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog; they allowed 15 or fewer pints in their three wins, are 0-4 when allowing more than 15 points. Philly ran ball for 218 yards in LW’s 31-13 win, after running for 102.3 ypg the three games before that; Iggles are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Philly scored 31+ points in its wins, 18.5 ppg in their losses.

Vikings (6-2) @ Chiefs (5-3)— Chiefs lost last three home games but still lead AFC West; backup QB Moore played well in 31-24 home loss to Packers LW, but he ain’t Mahomes (check status), and has started only six games since 2011. Chiefs allowed 28+ points in four of last six games; they’re 17-19 ATS in last 36 home games. Vikings won last four games, have extra prep time after LW’s Thursday win; they were held to 16-6 points in their losses, are 6-0 scoring more than 16. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 26-18 ATS on the road. Home side won last five series games; Vikings lost last four trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.

Jets (1-6) @ Dolphins (0-7)— How are the Jets a road favorite over anyone? Adam Gase coaches against his old team for first time here; he was 23-26 SU in Miami. Gang Green already has five loses by 14+ points; they’re been outscored 93-35 in three road games, are 3-5-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Jets converted only 9 of last 70 third down plays. Short week for 0-7 Miami team that covered its last three games, but has been outscored 130-20 in second half of games this season. Dolphins are -14 in turnovers, with only one takeaway in last four games; five of their last six games stayed under total. Dolphins won last three series games, by 3-8-7 points; Jets lost their last two visits here. Miami is 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a series underdog

Colts (5-2) @ Steelers (3-4)— Indy won three in row, five of last six games; they’re 3-0 ATS on road this year, with only road loss in OT vs Chargers in Week 1. Colts allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, are 5-0 allowing fewer than 30. Steelers won three of last four games after an 0-3 start, covering four of last five; they’re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Wasn’t impressed by Monday’s win over a hideous Miami team, but Steelers have had a positive turnover ratio in each of their last six games (+9 for year). Pitt won last five series games, with last loss in ’08; Colts lost 14 of last 15 visits here, with that ’08 game the only win. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 9-2 ATS; AFC North home teams are 0-11 ATS.

Lions (3-3-1) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland lost its last two games, allowing 42-27 points; this is their first home game since Week 2. Raiders are 5-9-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over. Detroit lost three of its last four games; six of their seven games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Under Patricia, Lions are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, 5-4 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over the total. Detroit allowed 91 points in last three games; they’ve held only one team (LAC) under 23. Detroit won last four series games, including last two visits here; their last loss to Oakland was in ’96. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Seahawks (6-2)— These teams came into the NFL together in ’76. Tampa Bay is playing its 5th straight game away from home; they’ve turned ball over 11 times on 29 drives the last two games (-9)- maybe Arians should call the plays? Bucs scored 32.5 ppg in four games with no or one turnover; they lost other three games by 14-16-4 points. Tampa is 2-5-4 ATS in last 11 games on artificial turf. Seattle won four of last five games but split their four home games, with both wins by a single point; they’re 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year, 4-11-1 since ’17. Home side won five of last six series games; Bucs lost four of last six visits to Seattle. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 ATS; NFC West home faves are 2-6.

Browns (2-5) @ Broncos (2-6)— Denver didn’t allow an offensive TD in either of its wins; they’re 0-6 when giving up more than 13 points. Flacco (neck) is out; Brandon Allen gets his first NFL action- he started for 2.5 years at Arkansas in SEC. Backup QB Rypien also has no NFL snaps. Broncos are 1-3 at home, with two losses with 2 points- they’re 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog. Six of their eight games went under. Cleveland lost its last three games, giving up 30 ppg; they split their four road games. Since 2013, Browns are 1-3 as road favorites, 1-0 TY, when they beat Jets, who also had a backup QB playing. Denver won seven of last eight series games, losing 17-16 to the Browns LY- they won four of last five meetings played here.

Packers (7-1) @ Chargers (3-5)— Packers won last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg; they converted 14 of last 23 3rd down plays. GB won/covered all three road games, is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite- five of their last six games went over. Chargers lost three of last four games; only one of their eight games was decided by more than 7 points. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win in OT; their home losses are by 7-7-7 points. Bolts are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog. Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games; Packers won their last six visits to San Diego- hard to imagine stadium in Carson won’t be full of mostly Packer fans. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.

Patriots (8-0) @ Ravens (5-2)— New England defense has allowed only four TD’s on 96 drives, while scoring four TD’s of their own; they’re 17-10 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY. Only one of its eight wins was by less than 14 points; their turnover rate is +17. Only close game (@ Buffalo) was only time they lost field position battle. Ravens are 13-4 ATS in last 17 post-bye games; they won last three games, scoring 26.3 ppg; they’ve scored 23+ points in every game this year. Baltimore is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog. Six of eight NE games stayed under total. NE won 10 of last 13 series games (2-2 in playoffs); Patriots won three of last four visits to Baltimore. Average total in last three series games is 54.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:51 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Sunday, November 3

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 451-452
November 3, 2019 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.691
Jacksonville
130.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-1 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Philadelphia

Game 457-458
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.777
Philadelphia
135.796
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Kansas City

Game 459-460
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
139.626
Kansas City
134.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); N/A

Tennessee @ Carolina

Game 455-456
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
131.064
Carolina
132.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh

Game 463-464
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.731
Pittsburgh
132.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+1); Under

NY Jets @ Miami

Game 461-462
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.715
Miami
117.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 1 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5 1/2); Under

Washington @ Buffalo

Game 453-454
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
122.350
Buffalo
128.327
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 10
37
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+10); Over

Tampa Bay @ Seattle

Game 467-468
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
130.649
Seattle
129.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Oakland

Game 465-466
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.880
Oakland
129.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+2); Under

Cleveland @ Denver

Game 469-470
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.042
Denver
131.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Under

Green Bay @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
139.371
LA Chargers
129.331
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

New England @ Baltimore

Game 473-474
November 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.367
Baltimore
136.030
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3 1/2); Under

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:51 AM

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 9:

Road Teams: 73-46-2 ATS
Home Teams: 46-73-2 ATS

Favorites: 50-69-2 ATS
Underdogs: 69-50-2 ATS

Home Faves: 29-52-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 17-21 ATS

Road Faves: 21-17 ATS
Road Dogs: 52-29-2 ATS

O/U: 55-66

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:51 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 9 odds: Chargers' shake-up puts urgency on Over
Jason Logan

The Chargers are averaging less than 20 points per game and hope firing their offensive coordinator can jump start the scoring attack around QB Philip Rivers.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 9 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCICO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+9.5, 43)

The spread for this NFC West Thursday night game opened Arizona as an 8-point home underdog after the Cardinals were thumped 31-6 by New Orleans in Drew Brees’ return to action and the Niners laid the lumber to Carolina in a 51-13 blasting.

Books pinned that dead number on the board, looking to the early money to dictate the movement and mold the line, and what they saw wasn’t that surprising. Instant action on San Francisco has this spread teetering on -10 at most books, and while the 1.5-point move from Niners -8 to -9.5 may look big, it’s not as notable as a jump to -10 – which is starting to pop up in select markets.

If you’re onboard with the undefeated 49ers Thursday night, buy it now at -9.5. The public loves to bet the favorites in primetime games and this spread may not only go to -10 it could even end up with a half-point hook on that key number.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5, 52)

Seattle opened -6.5 at most markets and the sharp opinion on this game has been the Buccaneers, trimming the vig on the Seahawks at most books and even axing half a point of the line entirely at select spots.

Tampa Bay is coming off a frustrating loss at Tennessee in Week 8, in which a scoop-and-score in the fourth quarter was incorrectly whistled dead, eventually leading to a 27-23 defeat. Seattle found itself in a closer-than-expected game at Atlanta and has three wins in the past four games - all decided by a touchdown or less.

If you’re leaning to the home side, hold up and see if you can grab Seattle -6. That number should start popping up mid-week as the industry evens out. However, don’t wait too long. The public is expected to side with the Seahawks, and that could make this line closer to -7 come kickoff. This is a perfect situation to use that Covers Live App Line Alert. DING!

TOTAL TO BET NOW: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS OVER 46.5

This Over/Under is on the move, ticking upwards from 46 to 46.5. And for good reason.

The Packers have had a slew of injuries to their offense but that doesn’t seem to matter with Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Green Bay has fully adapted Matt LaFleur’s playbook and is piling on the points, averaging 32.5 over its current four-game winning streak. Receiver Davante Adams could return to the lineup after missing four games with turf toe, giving another weapon to Rodgers arsenal and influencing the Over/Under.

The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt Monday after their slow start to the schedule. Los Angeles, which enters Week 9 with a 3-5 record, is putting up just 19.6 points per game despite a bevvy of offensive weapons and a veteran QB in Philip Rivers. Head coach Anthony Lynn could take over play calling, but the Bolts are hoping the move sparks some scoring in Week 9.

If that shakeup has you sitting on the Over, you may want to bet this number now – at 46 if available – as I predict it will creep up to 47 and beyond before Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET start time.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: TENNESSEE TITANS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS UNDER 41

This Over/Under opened as low as 40 points and has been bet up as high as 41. According to our early consensus numbers, 65 percent of totals tickets are on the Over and could increase this Over/Under before Sunday’s start.

Tennessee’s offense has looked much improved since making the move from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at QB. In his two starts, Tannehill has passed for 505 yards and five touchdowns, sparking the Titans to victory with scores of 23 and 27 points.

Carolina, on the other hand, heads back home with its tail between its legs after getting spanked in the Bay Area on Sunday. The Panthers defense gushed yardage, including 232 yards rushing to the 49ers, and now takes on another potent RB in Derrick Henry.

This is one of the lower totals on the Week 9 board, so if you’re thinking about taking the Under, play it cool and see if you can get this total at 42 points or higher before clicking “place bet”.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:52 AM

Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 3

HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE at Wembley Stadium, London (NFL, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 7-2-1 vs. spread last 10 away from home. Series well “under” last three including Sept. 15 meeting at NRG. Jags 3-1 vs. line away TY and have won and covered 3 of last 4 at Wembley.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends

WASHINGTON at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have covered last two after dropping 5 in a row vs. line. Skins also on 5-0 “under” run, Bills “under” 5-1 this season
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans 8-5 as dog since LY (2-1 TY), but Panthers have won and covered four of five.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers, based on recent trends.

CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on board. Birds only 3-9 vs. line last 12 at Linc. Chicago on 11-3 “under” run since late 2018 and “under” last two series meetings. Playoff rematch from last January!
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Super Bowl IV rematch! Vikings have won SU last four and covered 3 of those after Skins result. Chiefs no covers first three as home chalk this season (we’ll see about Mahomes) and 1-7 last 8 as Arrowhead chalk. Zimmer “under” 19-7-1 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Vikings, if dog, based on “totals” and team trends.

N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Steelers on Monday, Dolphins have covered last three TY, also 5-1 SU last six in this series. Jets 1-6 vs. spread as chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 7-2 vs. line last nine away (3-0 TY), also “over” 6-3 last 9 reg season. Steel has covered last four this season, “over” 6-4 last ten at Heinz Field.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

DETROIT at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Lions 5-1 last six as dog since late 2018. First Raiders home game since Sept. 15! Oakland has covered 4 of last 5 at Coliseum. Both teams “over” 5-2 this season.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Lions, based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Note the underdog team has covered in ten straight Seahawks games since late 2018! Bucs 6-2 “over” since late 2018, Hawks “over” 8-4 last 12 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Browns “under” 7-4-1 since late 2018, Broncos “under” three in a row and 15-2 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pack 3-0 vs. line away TY. Bolts 0-4 vs. line at home in 2019, 2-9 vs. spread at Carson since 2018. Bolts also “under” 8-2 last ten in reg season.
Tech Edge: Pack, based on team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BALTIMORE (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh has given Belichick some fits in past especially in playoffs, winning 2 and covering 3 at Gillette Stadium since 2009. Belichick 6-2 vs. line reg season since late 2018. Ravens no covers last six at home (0-5-1), though Harbaugh 7-0 last seven as dog. Belichick “under” 13-3 last 16 reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Belichick “totals” trends.

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:52 AM

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Patriots 6-2 ATS
t1. Packers 6-2 ATS
t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
5. Niners 5-2 ATS
6. Colts 4-2-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t24. Jets 2-5 ATS
t24. Bucs 2-5 ATS
t24. Browns 2-5 ATS
t24. Bears 2-5 ATS
t24. Ravens 2-5 ATS

Can'tPickAWinner

10-31-2019, 10:52 AM

by: Josh Inglis

BETTING ON THE BEST

Lamar Jackson went into Seattle in Week 7 and knocked off the league’s frontrunner for MVP on the back of 116 yards rushing on 14 carries. Jackson is doing things on the ground that have never been done in the NFL, averaging 101 yards on 14 carries and 0.5 TDs over his last four games. This stretch has seen the Baltimore Ravens quarterback go 4-0 Over/Under for his rushing-yard total.

Jackson will have his toughest test this year versus the New England Patriots in Baltimore on Sunday night. The Pats haven’t allowed more than 18 rushing yards to a QB since Week 5, but New England hasn’t faced a talent like Jackson, who leads the league in yards per rush at 6.9 with that number jumping to 7.7 at home.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen ran for 26 yards on five carries and a score in just over two quarters in Week 4 versus the Pats, an indicator that New England can be susceptible to QB running. Grab the Over on Jackson’s rushing total on any number below 73 yards.

PRIMETIME 6-POINT TEASER

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA (SF -4): Although we think it will be difficult for San Francisco to cover double digits on a short week, four points are much more realistic against an Arizona team that is crippled at running back. The Cardinals also don’t match up well versus the Niners defensively as Kliff Kingsbury’s defensive unit ranks 26th in rush DVOA defense, giving up 130 yards on the ground per game.

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE (NE +2.5): The Pats come into Sunday night’s game as 3.5-point road favorites — their smallest spread of the year. Tom Brady & Co. have traveled well going 3-1 ATS on the road with the only ATS loss coming against the Bills. The Ravens have held opponents to just 18.7 points a game over their last three and won’t run up the score against the league’s top DVOA defense.

DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (DAL -1): Dallas is coming off its bye, helping the receiving corp heal up as they face a New York Giants team giving up over 30 points a game in its last three outings. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings by an average margin of 12.4 points. The Giants have to find a way to stop Dak Prescott, who is averaging 287 yards passing with seven rushing touchdowns in his last 16 games.

SELLING THE SACK STREAK

We are 3-0 in the month of October with our Over sack props and looking to push that streak to four in a game we are expecting to see quarterbacks face down.

The Carolina Panthers have gotten to opposing QBs at a league-best rate of 4.3 sacks per game while also struggling to keep Kyle Allen horizontal, surrendering seven sacks last week and eight in the previous three games.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won’t fare any better come Sunday as the veteran has been sacked nine times in 10 quarters since taking over the starting job.

This total will most likely be set at 6.5 as opposed to the usual 5.5 but is still a recommended play for any bettor looking to change things up. Hit the Over.

SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS

The New York Jets are bad. That’s not surprising. But opening as 1-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins is a big slap to the face for Adam Gase’s squad, which has since been bet up to -3.

The New York offense has looked putrid since the Cowboys game, putting up just 15 points and 367 yards in their last two games. Over that same stretch, QB Sam Darnold’s unit has converted 4 of 20 third downs leading to a time of possession of only 24 minutes, which would rank as the worst mark in the league.

As bad as the offense is, the defense might be in worse shape heading into the Dolphins’ game. Middle Linebacker C.J. Mosley is out and defensive captain Jamal Adams seems to have lost his motivation, taking issue with being shopped at the trade deadline and had some choice words for the Jets’ GM

The spread scares us a bit considering the Dolphins’ second-half woes, but this Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has a great chance to top its team total of 18.5 points after getting the taste of competitive football over the last two week. Take the Dolphins team total Over 18.5.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:39 AM

THE PREZ

Event: (455) Tennessee Titans at (456) Carolina Panthers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 3, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Tennessee Titans 4.0 (-110)

NFL Preview and Free Pick: Titans at Panthers

The AFC visits the NFC for a content in the early Sunday session. Both the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers are in need of a victory in Week 9 to keep them relevant in their divisions. The two squad has have a change in quarterback and the backups have performed admirably in the place of the Week 1 starters. Tennessee has won two straight since making the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Carolina has won four of their last five with Kyle Allen under center in place of Cam Newton.

Tennessee Titans

Tannehill's veteran presence and his ability to be vanilla avoid the pass rush and understand the similarities in offensive scheme regardless of the team has worked in place of the inconsistent Mariota. Tannehill has completed over 73 percent of his passes. The reliability of Tannehill has give running back Derrick Henry more room to run in the Tennessee ground attack.

Tennessee’s defense is the team's strength. And the Titans ability to curtail the oppositions success via the run is a important variable when facing the running attack of the Panthers' Henry and McCaffrey.

Carolina Panthers

It was only a matter of time before the league's defensive coordinators caught up with Allen and what makes him tick. Allen and the Panthers offense has been held under 300 total yards in three of their past four games. McCaffrey is "The Factor" in making the Panthers' offense tick and his success against the Titans' front seven will dictate how Carolina coaching staff will scheme offensively Sunday afternoon.

Defensively Carolina has been gouged by the run. The Panthers defense surrendered 232 rushing yards to the 49ers last week. The secondary has stood tall and mitigated the front seven but cheating a safety into the box.

Free Pick

The Free Pick is a play on the more experienced quarterback and the better defense against the run, Tennessee.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:39 AM

RALPH MICHAELS

Event: (469) Cleveland Browns at (470) Denver Broncos
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 3, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Total Under 39.5 (-110)

#469/#470 UNDER 39.5 Cleveland at Denver

What was t be one the most dynamic offenses in the NFL has been a dud as Baker Mayfield with the addition of Odell Beckham is averaging just 19 PPG and if you take out the Baltimore game the number falls to 15.5. The Browns have also averaged just 16 FD’s per game on the road. No team in the NFL has had more under of late then the Denver Broncos who are 1-15-1 O/U their last 17 games. Denver’s offense was bad enough under Flacco avg 16 PPG, 313 YPG and 18 FD’s/gm and know with the injury Brandon Allen is making his first start. Remember Allen wasn’t even with the team this pre-season as he was claimed off waivers on September 1st for the Rams. Denver will run the ball and slow the pace and this game stays Under.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:40 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 13-0 ATS (9.35 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they rushed for at least 100 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-8.32 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 off a road game in which they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-2 OU (7.77 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 when Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns on the road last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by double digits in 4+ straight games are 65-51 OU. Active win Minnesota and New England.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 OU (-8.27 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home coming off a win where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 10-0 OU (12.90 ppg) since Sep 23, 2007 as a home favorite playing a team scoring at least 24 points per game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (-17.95 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent after a win in which they came back from a deficit.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:40 AM

Total Talk - Week 9
Joe Williams

It's Week 9 of the National Football League regular season, as we'll be past the halfway points after this weekend and heading for the home stretch. We have a return of several divisional matchups, an intriguing battle over in London for the final game of the season from England, as well as a potentially thrilling battle on Sunday Night Football betwee the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 8 6-9 8-7 6-9
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 55-65-1 56-64-1 54-63-4

The betting public struck back in Week 8 with some small gains after getting dusted by the books in the previous three weekends. Last week we saw nine under results and six over results, which is generally a win for the books.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The high side has gone 2-1 in the three games from England this season and that includes a 2-0 mark at the two battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the under hit in last week's Wembley game. We note that because that's the same venue as this weekend's battle.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 9 were not rewarded as the 'under' produced a 9-6 mark in the final 30 minutes. Through 121 games this season, the 'under' sits at 65-55-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (64-56-1) and second-half (63-54-4).

Division Bell

We had no division battles in Week 8, so we take a look back at the previous week. There were a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We have had three total games in London to date, with the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium cashing over tickets, while last week's battle between the Rams and Bengals hit the under. The Rams didn't exactly light the world afire offensively, and the Bengals were...well...the Bengals. They're winless for a reason. This week's game features a potent offense from the Texans, and a subpar defense. For the Jaguars, they have also moved the ball quite well while checking in with a middling defense.

The Texans will be playing in their first game in England, although they have been involved in an International Series game, falling 27-20 to the Oakland Raiders at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Nov. 21, 2016, a game which hit the 'over'.

For the Jaguars, London has been a home away from home. This will be their seventh appearance in England, hitting the 'over' in five of the six battles. Last season's Week 7 battle against the Eagles was their first 'under' overseas, and that cashed just barely. In their only AFC South Division battle in London, they topped the Colts 30-27 on Oct. 2, 2016 for an 'over' result.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 8 - 2019 - Cincinnati vs. L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 24, Cincinnati 10
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Denver: 43 to 39
Chicago at Philadelphia: 45 to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 40 ½
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: 46 to 48 ½
New England at Baltimore (SNF): 46 ½ to 44 ½
Tennessee at Carolina: 40 to 42
Minnesota at Kansas City: 46 to 48

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: Over 96%
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 91%
Tennessee at Carolina: Over 87%
Houston at Jacksonville (London): Over 83%
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Over 79%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Jets-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Baltimore (67 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 9

Week 8 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 0-0 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 2-3 14-14
AFC vs. AFC 1-4 11-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 18-18

Other Week 9 Action

Houston at Jacksonville (9:30 a.m. ET - London): The Texans will play in their first game in England, and just their second international game to date. The 'over' hit in their only previous non-United States battle. For the Texans, they have scored 23 or more points in each of their past four games, and they just missed the under by a half-point or point at most shops last week against the Raiders. Since tuning up Atlanta on Oct. 6 the Texans are averaging a robust 33.3 points per game across the past four, while allowing 24 or more points (32, 24, 30, 24) during the span. While that's all well and good, remember these players to a 13-12 battle in Houston back in Week 2, with the Texans coming out on top.

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans hit the 'under' in five of their first six games, including a shutout loss Oct. 13 in Denver. They elected to make a change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, and so far the move is paying off over the former Dolphins' past two outings. After averaging just 11.0 PPG in five outings from Week 2 through Week 6, the Titans have posted 23 and 27 in a pair of wins and 'over' results. The Panthers hit the over in last week's game in San Francisco, but it was mostly the doing of the 49ers. They were dumped 51-13 in a crazy loss for the defense, which has allowed 27, 26 and 51 across the past three contests. As expected, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. That's probably part of the reason this total has been on a move, up two points from an open of 40.

Chicago at Philadelphia: The Bears have dropped three in a row entering play in this one, now they get to face old buddy RB Jordan Howard and the equally hungry Eagles. The Bears have scored 16 or more points in six straight, and they're averaging 19 PPG across the past three. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three games because the defense has gone south lately, mainly because the offense cannot stay on the field and the defense is likely getting worn down. Chicago's vaunted defense allowed 11.3 PPG over the first four outings, but they have yielded 25.7 PPG across the past three. Philly will be returning home after three straight road games which saw the 'over' hit in two battles, including last week's 31-13 win at Buffalo. Philly has hit for 20 or more points in seven of the first eight games, and they rank 21st in the NFL, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The Vikings offense sputtered last Thursday night in a 19-9 win over the Redskins, a big departure from their previous three games of production. In their past three Sunday battles the Vikings were averaging 36.0 PPG while allowing 20.0 PPG. Against the Chiefs, they'll need to be on point. Even with backup QB Matt Moore in for the injured QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) last week, the Chiefs posted 24 points in the first 'over' of the season on Sunday Night Football. The 'over' is 3-1 for Kansas City at home, and 2-0 against the NFC North Division so far this season.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The one-win Jets and winless Dolphins lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with draft position on the line. The Dolphins have resembled an NFL caliber offense over the past three games since a bye, averaging 17.0 PPG, which isn't much, but is much greater than the 6.5 PPG they averaged in the first four games Still, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three home games for the Dolphins. The Jets have averaged just 7.5 PPG over the past two games, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in three games against AFC East Division foes this season, posting 16, 14 and 0 in those three contests.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts offense stumbled against the Broncos sturdy defense last week, but they still won. However, they'll need more than 15 points if they want to top the Steelers on the road. Indianapolis has hit the 'under' in their past three road outings, and they're averaging just 20.7 PPG in three games away from home, including 19 and 19 in the past two regulation games, both 'under' results. The Steelers defense has been better over the past four games, although they hae played a pair of winless teams and a toothless Chargers offense during the span. Still, the 'under is 4-1 over their past five outings. The offense has scored 20 or more points in six straight despite some injury woes.

Detroit at Oakland: The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, posting 282.7 yards, and they're 31st in total yards allowed (420.4) and 32nd in the NFL against the pass (289.7). Detroit has allowed 23 or more points in five straight games, and six of the seven overall, hitting the 'over' in four of the past five, and five of seven. Defense also isn't a strong suit for the Raiders, as they're 31st against the pass (288.0). Look for QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr to hook up in a shootout, and subsequently plenty of points.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers roll in on a 5-0 'over' run, posting 31, 55, 24, 26 and 23 across their past five games on offense, while allowing 32, 40, 31, 37 and 27 on defense during the same span. Tampa Bay's games have looked like college scores, and the Seahawks have to be licking their chops. The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in each of their past three home games, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense while yielding 27.3 PPG during the three-game span.

Cleveland at Denver: The Browns were expected to be a juggernaut on offense, but they have struggled with consistency, turnovers and discipline through the first seven outings. They hit the 'under' last week in New England, and the under is 3-1 in four games away from the shores of Lake Erie this season. They're averaging 19.0 PPG in four road games, and those numbers are skewed a bit due to a 40-point outburst in Baltimore on Sept. 29. In their three 'under' results the Browns are posting just 13.0 PPG. The Broncos make a change to QB Brandon Allen for the injured QB Joe Flacco (neck). The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 11.7 PPG over the past three, and 15.0 PPG in four outings at home, hitting the 'under' in three games at Mile High.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: The Packers offense has been on fire, posting 23 or more points in six straight outings, cashing the 'over' in five of those outings. That including a 3-0 record against three previous AFC West clubs. They're averaging 33.4 PPG in three meetings against AFC West teams this season while allowing 21.4 PPG in this battles. The Chargers have been the complete opposite, hitting the 'under' in six of the past seven, including 2-0 vs. NFC North teams. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three at home.

Heavy Expectations

There are just one game listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 9, with the home team listed as favorites. The total is 36.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins play their fifth game this season as a double-digit underdog. They have scored a total of 16 points (5.3 PPG) across their past three as a double-digit 'dog, and they have hit the under in five in a row overall. Washington will be using rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in his first NFL start, and he can't be any worse after the offense totaled nine points in the past two games. The Bills hit the 'over' in their only previous game this season as a double-digit favorite in Week 7, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two games at home.

Under the Lights

New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle will be much anticipated, and the SNF game saw the 'over' hit last week after an 8-0 'under' run to start. This game might be a return to the under. New England's defense has been sick, allowing just 234.0 total yards per game and 7.6 PPG to rank No. 1 in each category, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per outing. That will be put to the test with the dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL, with Jackson good for a team-high 576 yards on the ground. They're averaging 30.6 PPG to rank No. 2 in points scored, too, so they'll be the biggest challenge for New England's defense to date.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Cowboys and Giants square off Monday night in New Jersey. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven divisional games for the Cowboys, while going 12-3-1 in their past 16 games following a bye week. It's the complete opposite, with the under hitting in four in a row for the Giants, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on MNF. However, the over is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in New Jersey. Remember, RB Saquon Barkley is back from injury to help spur the offense along.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:40 AM

Sunday Blitz - Week 9
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans at Panthers (-3 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.

Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ½-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24

Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST
The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.

The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night’s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).

The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City’s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ½, 53) – 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven’t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.

The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn’t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ½-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.

Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 51 – Lions at Raiders

Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions’ offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos’ quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ‘Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season’s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren’t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday’s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:40 AM

SNF - Patriots at Ravens
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The lock on 'overs' in SNF games this year was finally cracked open last week, as the Packers and Chiefs brought the back-and-forth shootout that everyone would have expected from them at the beginning of the year, even if the home side had an understudy taking the place of their star. It was nice to see two NFL teams make the most of their scoring opportunities and cash in with TD's and not FG tries, as there have been too many teams throughout the league that have played too conservative in that spot and/or have kicking issues to boot.

That makes it two straight weeks with relatively easy winners on SNF for this piece, and as we've arrived at November this week I'm looking to make it three in a row.

This week we've got another great game for the SNF crew, as New England visits a Baltimore Ravens team that's always given them fits for the better part of a decade now. Obviously, Belichick and Brady are still there in New England, but Baltimore's going to look much different this time around for New England as QB Lamar Jackson is about as opposite as it gets in terms of their former QB Joe Flacco.

This should be a great test for a Patriots defense that's gotten heaps of praise in recent weeks for all that they've done this year – I think I heard that New England would still be something like 6-2 SU if the offense hadn't scored a single point all year – but context always matters, and is generally forgotten a lot in this industry, and there isn't an offense New England has faced that brings the challenge that Baltimore will bring here. Remember the Ravens have also had two weeks to prepare for this game as well.

With a point spread that will undoubtedly have recreational/public bettors siding with the Patriots and the Ravens being a popular play from the 'sharps', let's get into where your money should be going on Sunday night.

Total Talk

This total opened up at 46 and thanks to about 65% support for the low side, the number has dropped a half-point to stay relatively steady at 45.5 the rest of the way. Given how historically good the Patriots defense has looked in basically every game, you can understand why the 'under' was the first look for the majority, and with Belichick's history of containing and shutting down young QB's by throwing very different looks at them, the 'under' is a reasonable look for sure.

However, I'm not sure many of those young QB's that Patriots teams have owned in the Belichick era have had the dynamic skill set that Lamar Jackson has. His speed can break pretty much any contain their is, and his throwing accuracy (and reads) are getting better and better each week as he's asked to do more in that area. New England will throw some exotic looks at him for sure, and some will likely have some success, but it's not like Baltimore can't adjust to that themselves, and when you've got the best athlete on the field by a wide margin, adjustments just come easier.

At the same time, New England's defense – while worthy of the praise they've gotten from a statistical standpoint – the context in who they've played definitely matters. Yes, I know you can only play who's on the schedule in front of you, but in terms of yards gained per game by the offense, New England's faced the 32nd ranked offense (NYJ) twice, the 31st ranked offense (Miami), the 30th ranked offense (Washington), the 28th ranked offense (Pittsburgh), the 24th ranked offense (NYG), the 20th ranked offense (Cleveland) in a weather-affected game, and the 19th ranked offense (Buffalo). There are only 32 teams in the league so that's about as soft as it gets.

Furthermore, only one of those Patriots opponents comes into Week 9 this week averaging more than 20 points per game, and that's Pittsburgh at 21.4 points per contest. The Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins top out at 12.4 points per game (Washington), while the other three teams – Cleveland, NYG, and Buffalo are all between 19 and 19.8 points per game.

Sure, you could argue that facing New England's defense for at least one of their games contributes to those low numbers, but logic and basic reasoning would tell you that none of those teams are really any good this year (sorry Buffalo fans) at least from an offensive standpoint. That's not the case with Baltimore as they are the only other team – besides the Patriots – that averages over 30 points per game this season (30.6) and that number isn't aided by the plethora of defensive/special teams scores (5) New England has put up this year.

And even if you wanted to look at the other side of things and say, “well Baltimore's numbers are skewed because of the 59 points they put up on Miami” well, they are slightly for sure. But the Ravens have also scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and it's not like New England didn't put up 43 points on Miami themselves.

All that being said, New England has put up 27 or more in all but one of their games – as they should vs the level of opponent they've faced – and I do think they approach that number against Baltimore this week. Tom Brady and company can't be thrilled about all this chatter that the defense has carried the Pats to this 8-0 SU record pretty much by their lonesome, and it's not like you can't put up points on this Ravens defense who have already had games where they've allowed 33 and 40 points too.

At home, Baltimore will get theirs too, as this game could end up looking a lot like last week's SNF game where we get two winning teams trading scores and going blow for blow against one another. After all, maybe last week's 'over' result broke the dam on 'overs' happening in these prime time games and that's really the only way I can look here.

Side Spiel

Reading all of that talk about the total would suggest that I believe taking the points with Baltimore would be the side to look at, and in theory that's probably the case. New England is going to be the 'public' side here, and oddsmakers are probably going to need the Ravens ATS and/or SU to snap a lot of parlays and teaser cards from earlier in the day. But the Patriots make a habit of outperforming their numbers and I'm not willing to step in front of that with a number that's hovering around -3.

Now some will tell you that the 'look ahead line' on this game was New England -6.5 and given that New England covered in those nasty conditions last week and Baltimore didn't play, a 'move' like that is something to weigh heavily. But comparing look ahead lines to what's actually posted during the week, and what ends up being the closing number is one of the biggest shams going.

I say that because that line of thought operates under the assumption that look ahead lines are the “true” or “correct” line on a game, and movements come based on what happens in games the week prior. That's not true at all, and it's why you see so many big moves relative to those early look ahead lines. Plenty of bettors understand how egregious those look ahead lines can be – it's why oddsmakers also take smaller limits on them – and they bet them accordingly. I mean who wouldn't love taking the Ravens at +6.5 right?

That was a bad number and the betting action tells you that. Bettors willing to get out well ahead of the market take advantage of these off-market numbers and then adjust their position accordingly throughout the week when lines settle into place. That doesn't mean that Baltimore is the play now, it means at +6.5 they were well liked by bettors. Nothing more and nothing less. Breaking this game down at the current line of New England -3.5 is a totally different scenario to address outside of what happened in the early markets and it's that concept that ends up getting lost when bettors are discussing what look ahead lines were relative to where they end up going.

And this line of New England -3.5 is arguably right where this line should be in my view, and outside of moving the price tag on the juice for it, chances are it hovers in this range until game time, depending on how much Patriots love comes in from the masses. It's not a play I'd want to touch with either side, but if you are interested in doing something with the side, teasing up the Baltimore Ravens through the key numbers of 7 and even 10 (on a 7-pt teaser) is how I'd look to play it.

Final Thoughts

The side at the current number is not something I'm interested in at all outside of teaser options, but it is the total that does appear to be the better bet. This game has the stench of something like 27-24 written all over it for one of these two teams, although the winner probably needs to hit their average of 30+ points to assure themselves of a victory.

I do expect New England's defense to get “exposed” a bit in the sense that they've put up all these fantastic defensive numbers against the doldrums of the league offensively – Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards gained per game with 434.9.

At the same time, Brady and company on that side of the ball for New England make sure to quiet the noise about their unit being well behind their defense. Baltimore's defense can be had through the air – ranks 26th in passing yards allowed – and it will be that aerial attack that gives New England a chance.

Hopefully those floodgates on 'overs' cashing a few more times in SNF games the rest of the year did open up after last week's result, as we should get two straight SNF 'overs' cashing when all is said and done this week.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 points

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:41 AM

61CALGARY -62 WASHINGTON
CALGARY is 17-8 ATS (10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

61CALGARY -62 WASHINGTON
BILL PETERS is 17-8 ATS (8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season (Coach of CALGARY)

63CHICAGO -64 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 3-13 ATS (-14.1 Units) against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:41 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, November 3

Calgary @ Washington

Game 61-62
November 3, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
11.610
Washington
13.231
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-170
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-170); Over

Chicago @ Anaheim

Game 63-64
November 3, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
11.749
Anaheim
10.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim
-160
6
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+140); Over

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:41 AM

NHL

Sunday, November 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Capitals
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Calgary Flames
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Calgary is 7-16-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Washington
Calgary is 5-11-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Anaheim is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Anaheim's last 10 games
Anaheim is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Anaheim is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Chicago's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Anaheim

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:42 AM

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 3 is:

Tampa Bay Bucs +5 over Seattle Seahawks.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:42 AM

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Vikings
Bears
Raiders
Ravens

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:42 AM

Tony Mejia

#456 Panthers
#458 Eagles
#459 Vikings
#469 Browns
#471 Packers
#474 Ravens

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:42 AM

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Jets vs. Dolphins
Dolphins+3½ -120

Play - Miami Dolphins (Game 462).

Edges - Dolphins: 3-1-1 ATS in this series, and 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in 5th home game of the season … Jets: 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in 4th away game of the season … We recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:43 AM

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Colts vs. Steelers

10* FREE NFL PICK (Steelers +1)

I'll take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Colts. This is just too good a price to pass up on Pittsburgh at home. Indy comes in with a impressive 5-2 record for a team a lot of people threw under the bus when Andrew Luck retired right before the season started. A win is a win, but you can't overlook just how fortunate the Colts have been this season. Out of their 5 wins, 4 have come by 6 or fewer points and a 7-point win at home against the Texans is their largest margin of victory. They could just as easily be sitting here at 2-5 or 3-4.

Steelers are just 3-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. They have won 3 of their last 4 and while the offense definitely misses Big Ben, the defense has been outstanding of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up just 19 ppg and 285 ypg. They have also held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 75 or less rushing yards, the only exception coming against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. I think the Steelers defense will dominate this game at home, while Mason Rudolph and the offense do enough to secure the win. Give me the Steelers +1!

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:43 AM

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 458.

10:00 am pst.

Whether it's Trubisky or Daniel at the helm, it won't matter, as the Chicago offense is averaging just 18.3 PPG. Philadelphia, which has won and covered the last four meetings in this series, is back on track after last week's, 31-13 dismantling of the then red-hot, Buffalo squad. WR, Jackson will play here, giving the Eagles another weapon in their arsenal. The Bears are 2-6 ATS the L8 games played overall. take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:43 AM

JACK JONES
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Jets vs. Dolphins

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Jets/Dolphins OVER 42

Both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have played two of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses in the entire NFL this season. Now, they finally get a shot at the worst defense they have faced all season. Look for both offenses to bust out in this one as this game sails well OVER the posted total of 42 points Sunday.

The Jets have faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses. They have already played two games against the Patriots, while also going up against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Bills, Browns and Eagles. Those six teams average giving up just 17.4 points per game on the season. It’s no wonder the Jets have had so many problems scoring points, not to mention they’ve been without Sam Darnold for half the season.

The Dolphins have gone up against the Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills, Steelers, Chargers and Redskins. Those eight teams average giving up just 18.5 points per game. The Dolphins have been much better offensively since switching back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. He guided the Dolphins to two late touchdowns against the Redskins, 21 points against the Bills and 14 points against the Steelers.

The Dolphins rank 30th in total defense giving up 414.0 yards per game this season. The Jets are 19th in total defense, allowing 357.4 yards per game. Miami is 32nd in scoring defense, allowing 34.0 points per game. New York is 25th in scoring defense, yielding 26.4 points per game.

The Jets are 6-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons. The OVER is 6-0 in Jets last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Both offenses will likely put up their best point totals of the season as I expect each team to top 20 points in this one. Bet the OVER Sunday.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:43 AM

NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is questionable for Sunday's home game against Minnesota. If he plays, The SuperBook expects to set a line of Chiefs -2.5; if he sits, it'll be Vikings -3.5.

To play, or not to play? In NFL Week 9, that is the question surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes didn’t play in the Week 8 Sunday night game against Green Bay, while recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Matt Moore had a solid outing, but the Chiefs lost 31-24 as 5-point home underdogs. Friday, Mahomes was listed as questionable for a home tilt against the Vikings. The game has been off the board all week, pending some finality on Mahomes. “If he plays, the line will come out around Chiefs -2.5,” Osterman said. “If he’s out, it would be Vikings around -3.5.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: A calf injury will keep wideout T.Y. Hilton off the field at Pittsburgh. “That moved the line 1 point. He’s really the Colts’ only big-play weapon, so he means a little bit more than wide receiver on some other teams.” Indianapolis was at +1 Friday afternoon, on a line that spent the week bouncing between pick, -1 and +1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Running back James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful against the Colts, meaning Jaylen Samuels – who missed the past two games with a knee issue – will shoulder the load. “Not much effect on the line. Samuels is not much of a drop-off from Conner.” The Steelers were 1-point favorites Friday.

DENVER BRONCOS: Quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) is on injured reserve and done for the year. That caused the SuperBook to move from Broncos -1 straight to Browns -2.5 on Monday. “The sharps didn’t beat us to the news. We were on the front end of that move,” Osterman said. “Flacco being out moved the game 3-3.5 points, and then the sharp bets moved it another point-and-a-half.” By early Friday, visiting Cleveland was at -4.5.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams, out the past month with a toe injury, is listed as questionable on the road against the Chargers, but it appears likely he’ll return. “Adams would be a half-point move if he is confirmed as playing.” The Packers were at -3.5 Friday night.

Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT BUFFALO: There’s a 40 percent chance of precipitation, with the wind blowing in the mid-teens, but The SuperBook isn’t concerned at this point. “No effect. We don’t see moves for wind unless it’s more than 25 mph, typically.” Buffalo is -10, with a low total of 36.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated in the Miami area on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of rain. But again, no impact yet on the odds. “We won’t move for rain unless it’s actually raining the day of game.” The Jets are -3 against the winless Dolphins, with a total of 42.5.

Pros vs. Joes

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This is a recurring theme with the Patriots. “Pros are all over the Ravens, and the public is all over the Patriots again.” The Patriots opened -5 for the Sunday night game, but that sharp play dropped New England to -3 by Thursday.

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE: The Seahawks opened -6 and dipped to -4 by early Friday, before ticking up to -4.5. “The Seahawks are a popular public side this week, but there has been a ton of sharp action on Tampa Bay.”

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: This AFC South clash opened pick, stretched to Texans -2.5, then backed off to Houston -1.5 by midweek. “The public likes the Texans this week. The sharp side is the Jaguars plus the points.”

Reverse Line Moves

GREEN BAY AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: “We opened Packers -4 and now we’re at -3.5 (even),” Osterman said Friday afternoon. The line actually got as low as Green Bay -2.5 at one point. “We’ve gotten a lot of Packers money, but the market is moving toward the Chargers.”

In addition, Osterman said all three of the Pros vs. Joes games listed above have seen reverse line movement.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:43 AM

by: Josh Inglis

PIVOT PROBLEMS

The Oakland Raiders have a serious problem with their pivot as backup center Andre James didn’t practice Wednesday. Already without starter Rodney Houston, the Raiders would need Richie Incognito to slide in at center if James can’t ready before Sunday’s game versus the Detroit Lions.

This comes as a bad time for the Silver and Black as the Lions are getting their two starting defensive tackles back for the tilt. Lions’ No.1 corner Darius Slay is also trending towards playing.

Carr has been sacked just eight times all year and may face a bit more pressure than he is accustomed to, forcing him into some riskier passes. We are banking on the Lions to capitalize on this and are taking Over 0.5 interceptions for the Raiders QB.

TOM NOT-SO TERRIFIC

The Baltimore Ravens’ secondary is getting healthier ahead of their big AFC matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will have free safety Earl Thomas and get stud corner Jimmy Smith back, as well. This will push corner Marlon Humphrey (positive PFF grade) into the slot where he will see a heavy dose of Julian Edleman.

Tom Brady has played to a passer rating of 83.3 over his last five games and Sunday’s game will be just his second time, and first in five weeks, facing a team with a winning record this year. His QBR rating of 58.7 is also the worst mark of his career.

We are 1-0 this year betting against the GOAT and looking to fade his passing total in Week 9. Take the Under on Tom Terrific's 292.5 passing yard total.

ACCIDENTS WILL ALLEN

The Denver Broncos have punted the most over their last three games at 7.3 a game and have converted an abysmal 12.8 percent of their third downs over that stretch. This is the offense that Joe Flacco has passed down to Brandon Allen for the Broncos Week 9 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

Allen has yet to take a regular-season snap since being drafted in the sixth-round in 2016. In the preseason, however, the newest member of the Broncos has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in 226 pass attempts (62.8 completion percent). It’s tough to be worse than Flacco, but Allen has a good chance of doing it against the Browns whose defense is tied for eighth in completions against at 21.1.

Flacco averaged 21 completions over his eight starts this year and cleared 20 completions just once in his last four. There is a better chance that Allen falls on his face than he performs better than Flacco. Take the Under on Allen’s 20.5 completions.

BACKING A BOTHERED BELL

Last week we backed Le’Veon Bell’s rushing total and came up plenty short. We weren’t the only ones who were upset as even Bell, himself, was frustrated and angry about his lack of touches. But it looks like head coach, Adam Gase and the running back have made amends, and are “on the same page” ahead of the Jets matchup against the Miami Dolphins, a game in which the Jets are favored for the first time since Week 1.

The Dolphins are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents at 160 as they are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt. The ‘Fins have also allowed three backs to eclipse the century mark over their last five games: James Connor, Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott.

We are chasing last week’s loss on the squeaky-wheel theory and riding the Over on Bell’s rushing total of 75.5 yards.

KICKING PLAY OF THE WEEK

In the four games at New Era Stadium this year, the longest field goal made was 46 yards. That was in Week 4 with warmer and less windy conditions than Sunday's game between the Redskins and Bills.

Last week, the northwest had some serious winds that really hampered teams’ kickers. This week in Buffalo, the temperature will be just above freezing with strong winds of the 20-mph variety.

Washington Kicker Dustin Hopkins is just 1-for-3 from 40 and longer since Week 1, while Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka is 0-for-3 in attempts from 49 or farther. We are making the WSH/BUF longest field goal Under 45.5 our kicking play of the week.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:44 AM

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 9 odds: Raiders are ready to return home
Jason Logan

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball, ranked fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaging almost 26 points per game over its last four outings.

Situational handicapping – more popularly known as spot betting – is a great way to find hidden value on or against a certain team. From letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots, these blips on the calendar are just one of the weapons NFL bettors can use in their fight against the Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu/?cmpid=4437)s.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 9 schedule and gives his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact the outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (+3.5, 47)

The Chargers finally snapped their three-game losing skid thanks to some classic kicking from the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro botched a game-winning field goal, allowing the Bolts to escape the Windy City with a much-needed 17-16 victory.

Los Angeles has been in some tight contests this season, with all but one of its first eight games decided by a touchdown or less. The Week 8 win allows the franchise to exhale but only after pinning offense coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as the sacrificial lamb, firing him on Monday after the team slogged through offensive issues in the first half of the schedule.

The Chargers return “home” to Dignity Health Sports Park, which will undoubtedly be overtaken by resident and vacationing Cheeseheads this Sunday. With some of the urgency erased following that win, and the offense play calling in flux, this could be a bad spot for the Bolts in Week 9.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, 51.5)

The Buccaneers have been a sharp play in Week 9, drawing some action from the wiseguys for their trip to Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay has slimmed from +6.5 to +6, playing in what will be the team’s fifth straight road game, thanks to a chunk of scheduling that took the Bucs away from Raymond James Stadium (including across the pond to London, England and a Week 7 bye) for 49 days.

While the Seahawks are a formidable opponent and most teams wouldn’t look past that challenge, the homesick Buccos could be running on empty after crossing the country and dreaming of a full week in their own beds, heading into a Week 11 home stand with Arizona.

Tampa Bay has managed to cover the spread only once on this grueling four-game road stretch and is 6-8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.

SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2, 50.5)

We mentioned the Buccaneers’ long road home just within reach, but the Oakland Raiders are coming out the other end of a similar stretch of schedule that last saw them inside RingCentral Coliseum on September 15.

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. After a 2018 in which the Silver and Black ranked among the basement in most scoring stats, this year’s Raiders are currently fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaged almost 26 points per game over their last four outings – all away from home.

Detroit makes the cross-country trek to the Bay Area with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and has injury concerns around standouts Snacks Harrison and Darius Slay. Action seems to be siding with Oakland in his homecoming, moving the spread from -1.5 to -2.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:44 AM

JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Redskins vs. Bills

1* NFL - Free Pick on Buffalo Bills -9 -110

Easy play on Buffalo, especially with the news that Case Keenum can't go. Washington will be sending out rookie Dwayne Haskins for his first NFL start and there's been absolutely nothing from the preseason or limited time he's been on the field this year to make you think he's going to play well. Haskins has played in 2 games, attempted 22 passes and has just 12 completions without a TD and 4 interceptions.

It doesn't make matters any better that he's facing a pissed off Buffalo team that was just embarrassed on their home field 31-13 by the Eagles last week. That was really the first bad game for the Bills all season and I'm confident they bounce back. Their defense should suffocate Haskins and I wouldn't be surprised if we got a score or two from that side of the ball.

Bills are also 16-5 ATS last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season when facing a bad defensive team that is allowing 24 or more ppg. Take Buffalo!

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 8

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8-9) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5

Optional Claiming $50,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $47,000 • Post: 3:49P

(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $35,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * THREES OVER DEUCES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHOWALTER: Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OLDIES BUT GOODIES: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. EASTERN BAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BROTHER CHUB: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days an d horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.

3

THREES OVER DEUCES

2/1

5/1

1

SHOWALTER

3/1

6/1

5

OLDIES BUT GOODIES

6/1

8/1

6

EASTERN BAY

6/1

8/1

2

BROTHER CHUB

10/1

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

1

SHOWALTER

1

3/1

Front-runner

100

100

106.6

98.4

93.4

5

OLDIES BUT GOODIES

5

6/1

Front-runner

104

103

101.0

90.6

83.6

6

EASTERN BAY

6

6/1

Front-runner

101

98

94.2

92.2

87.7

7

JOHN JONES

7

5/1

Front-runner

99

88

21.8

79.6

72.1

3

THREES OVER DEUCES

3

2/1

Stalker

103

104

74.0

100.2

93.2

2

BROTHER CHUB

2

10/1

Stalker

100

99

54.6

92.2

82.2

4

SARATOGA BOB

4

8/1

Trailer

106

98

76.8

94.4

82.4

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 10

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)

Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 3:45P

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS ARE LEAST PREFERRED.

Contenders

Race Analysis

P#

Horse

Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BP DOWN TO POLICIES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.

8

NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS

5/2

3/2

2

BP DOWN TO POLICIES

7/2

5/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure

2

BP DOWN TO POLICIES

2

7/2

Average/Trouble-prone

70

66

5.1

0.0

0.0

3

KISSIN BABE

3

12/1

Slow

0

0

6.9

0.0

0.0

6

ZOOMING BIG DREAMS

6

20/1

Slow

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

8

NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS

8

5/2

Average

88

71

3.9

0.0

0.0

9

OUR SILVER STORM

9

6/1

Average

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

10

RING A RING OF ROSES

10

5/1

Average/Trouble-prone

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Unknown Running Style: KOOL RED WAGON (12/1) [Jockey: Triana Jr Alfredo - Trainer: Ater Richard], MISS BERNAL EYES (12/1) [Jockey: Esqueda Erik - Trainer: Escamilla-Gonzalez E], EYESA FANCY PYC (8/1) [Jockey: Cunningham Travis - Trainer: Cogburn Orri

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:47 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf ParadiseAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 3 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 6 GIOPRESS 2/1

# 3 DRILL TIME 9/5

# 7 THUNDER BASIN 8/1

I've got to go with GIOPRESS. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this animal look solid in this contest. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Must be given a shot based on the respectable speed figure earned in the last contest. DRILL TIME - He must be given a chance given the competitive speed figures. Silva has a strong win percent with horses running in dirt sprint races. THUNDER BASIN - Looks competitive to be up on the front end at the first call. Has to be given a shot versus this group of horses displaying quite good figures as of late and an average speed fig of 75 under similar conditions.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:47 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $97,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 BOUJIE GIRL (ML=5/1)
#3 CARDAMON (ML=8/5)
#1 SHILAH BABY (ML=3/1)

BOUJIE GIRL - This racer coming off a solid effort in the last thirty days is a contender in my humble opinion. Took a class drop in the last race at Keeneland. Correas keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move. CARDAMON - I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter trip. Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another indicator that this horse is classy. SHILAH BABY - Gaffalione and DiVito perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +999 ROI for a jock and conditioner. This horse has increased her speed ratings in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DIAMOND CRAZY (ML=5/2), #4 GOODBYE EARL (ML=8/1),

DIAMOND CRAZY - Just don't figure that she is pegged at the proper price at the probable odds. GOODBYE EARL - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint race to be any kind of value at low odds in a sprint. Any horse coming out of a route race should show some early speed to compete with the sprinters. Not probable that the rating she earned on May 18th will be good enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 BOUJIE GIRL is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:47 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

11/03/19, SA, Race 4, 1.03 PT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.00 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000.
Claiming Price $20,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS
$1 Exacta /$0.50Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 4-5-6) - $0.20 Rainbow Pick Six Starts (Races 4-9) - $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags

100.0000
5
Concord Jet
4-1
Pereira T J
Koriner Brian J.
WL

099.3391
3
Verynsky
4-1
Bejarano R
Hess. Jr. Robert B.
JF

098.9992
2
Oil Can Knight
9/5
Garcia M
O'Neill Doug F.
TSE

098.6216
4
Toothless Wonder
7/2
Velez J I
Meah Anna

097.4698
6
Mo Dinero
4-1
Fuentes R
Knapp Steve

097.0544
1
Owning
8-1
Diaz. Jr. J
Sierra Javier Jose

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.

Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse

5
121.20
1.11
34.18
188
550
[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

3
121.20
1.11
34.18
188
550
[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

2
121.20
1.11
34.18
188
550
[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

4
121.20
1.11
34.18
188
550
[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

6
49.70
1.12
34.15
70
205
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females

1
121.20
1.11
34.18
188
550
[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 117 LBS. SINCE SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif

# 1 GREMALATA'S GIRL 1/1

# 5 BLACK LIGHTING 8/5

# 2 ALWAYS BELLA 9/5

I've got to go with GREMALATA'S GIRL. She should be given a chance given the decent speed figs. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Diaz have shown sharp results as of late. Will probably compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of animals. BLACK LIGHTING - Has recorded solid speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Has been running well lately and will almost certainly be up near the front end early on. ALWAYS BELLA - This filly with Diaz in the saddle makes her a contender.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,900 Class Rating: 79

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 AMERICAN COTTON (ML=2/1)

AMERICAN COTTON - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a nice outing on October 21st. A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 72, is tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I'M A LAWMAN (ML=5/2), #4 ORE PASS (ML=4/1), #3 BALOTELLI (ML=8/1),

I'M A LAWMAN - This animal doesn't have a winner's attitude. Regularly finishes near the winner. ORE PASS - Pace makes the race and the lack of speed means this rallier will have to rally without any help. BALOTELLI - Hard to take this racer at the odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last affair. When checking today's class figure, he will have to record a much better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 AMERICAN COTTON to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 08:49 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

11/03/19, GPW, Race 1, 1.20 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000.
Claiming Price $12,500. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1 -5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags

100.0000
6
Micah Man
8-1
Lopez P
Vaccarezza Carlo
JW

098.5219
1
Restart
4-1
Meneses M
Gonzalez Oscar M.
SF

098.1142
8
Skyline View
7/2
Gutierrez R
Williams Matthew J.

097.2987
10
Uncle Gregory
8-1
Sanchez J
Vaccarezza Carlo

097.0183
11
Ifeelgood
9/2
Cruz M R
Yanez Moises R.
EL

096.8909
2
Sky's Son
10-1
Torres C A
Fawkes David

095.6167
4
Operated
15-1
Castro E M
Avila Juan Carlos
T

095.0306
5
Sir Hoski
6-1
Reyes L
Nihei Michelle

093.6544
9
Knokke by the Sea
30-1
Rios J M
Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos
C

093.0173
7
Drill Bit
15-1
Lugo C D
Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo

092.9154
3
Mano
30-1
Cardenas D
Collazo Henry

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse

6
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

1
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

8
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

10
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

11
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

2
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

4
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

5
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

9
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

7
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

3
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags

100.0000
6
Micah Man
8-1
Lopez P
Vaccarezza Carlo
JW

098.7115
10
Uncle Gregory
8-1
Sanchez J
Vaccarezza Carlo
E

097.3077
8
Skyline View
7/2
Gutierrez R
Williams Matthew J.

096.6538
1
Restart
4-1
Meneses M
Gonzalez Oscar M.
SF

096.4808
11
Ifeelgood
9/2
Cruz M R
Yanez Moises R.
L

094.2115
4
Operated
15-1
Castro E M
Avila Juan Carlos

093.9231
9
Knokke by the Sea
30-1
Rios J M
Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos
C

093.6731
2
Sky's Son
10-1
Torres C A
Fawkes David

093.2885
7
Drill Bit
15-1
Lugo C D
Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo

093.1923
5
Sir Hoski
6-1
Reyes L
Nihei Michelle

091.9038
3
Mano
30-1
Cardenas D
Collazo Henry

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

Pgm#
Profit
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse

6
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

10
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

8
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

1
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

11
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

4
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

9
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

2
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

7
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

5
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

3
40.00
1.14
38.41
53
138
[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 09:52 AM

Paul Leiner

Three NFL Picks 11/3

100* Over 42 Jets/Dolphins
100* Seahawks -4.5
100* Packers -4

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 09:52 AM

Sunday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Redskins at Bills (-10.5/37), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Case Keenum ruled out due to a suspension, Redskins rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first NFL start. The Ohio State product has gotten into road losses at the Vikings and Giants and is 12-for-22 with four interceptions. A road atmosphere won’t be anything new, but the hope is that he’ll be able adjust better waking up knowing he’s the starter as opposed to being thrust into a contest. In a related story, the Bills defense is set to be the most expensive to own in daily fantasy despite giving up 218 rushing yards in last week’s loss to the Eagles.

Buffalo must prove it can bounce back from its biggest setback of the season after being overwhelmed by Philly and is a double-digit favorite for the second time in three weeks. The Dolphins actually led in a 31-21 loss on Oct. 20, so Buffalo will have to get off to a better start in order to keep Haskins from finding a rhythm. The Bills have been outscored 35-13 in the second and third quarters of their last two games. Provided safety Kurt Coleman plays, the Bills come into this one relatively healthy. The ‘Skins have ruled out safeties Deshazor Everett and Montae Nicholson, so they could be vulnerable in the back if Josh Allen manages to hit a receiver in stride. Winds are expected to be around 20 miles per hour in upstate New York.

Titans at Panthers (-3.5/42), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Panthers have only played one home game since their Sept. 12 Thursday night loss to Tampa, having held off the Jaguars late on Oct. 6. As a result, taking the field in Charlotte without Cam Newton is a relatively new experience, so we’ll see how Kyle Allen responds as he attempts to bounce back from his first pro loss. Carolina got rocked 51-13 by San Francisco last weekend in a game where its defense got ran over and Allen was harassed into multiple turnovers, tasting turf seven times after sacks. Tennessee will look to follow up in being disruptive as it attempts to win a third straight Ryan Tannehill start.

Despite missing tight end and team leader Delanie Walker, Tannehill has looked sharp and has been paying off drives in the red zone, showing nice chemistry with tight end Jonnu Smith and young receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. We’ll see if that holds up on the road since this will be the first time he leads the Titans out on the field outside of Nashville. Protecting Tannehill could be an issue if tackle Jack Conklin can’t go. He was downgraded to questionable. Center Ben Jones has already been ruled out, so the opportunity is there for the Panthers to keep the Titans from finding a rhythm. Christian McCaffrey should continue to be featured considering his elite form but Carolina got great news with Curtis Samuel and Jarius Wright both upgraded to ‘probable’ after overcoming nagging injuries enough to participate.

Bears at Eagles (-4/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Coming off a terrible loss to the Chargers, Chicago hits the road in crisis, in danger of falling two games under .500 at the season’s halfway point despite one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Philly was in a desperate state last week as they took the field against the Bills and it proved to be poised under pressure, rolling to a comfortable win. We’ll see if they can sustain their level of intensity, but it will help that RB Miles Sanders is set to be out there as the change-of-pace back behind Jordan Howard after being questionable earlier in the week. Tackle Jason Peters is out again, and no matter what anyone says about him not being the same guy he was five years ago, missing his experience and his marvelous athleticism even at his age is an obstacle for the Eagles to overcome. Safety Andrew Sendejo (groin) is questionable and DT Tim Jernigan has been cleared to play, so the defense should be up for the challenge of keeping Mitchell Trubisky from finding a rhythm.

The Bears haven’t been able to consistently get any of their weapons off outside of Allen Robinson, who will have a great matchup here given the Eagles’ issues in the secondary. The weather will cooperate since winds aren’t expected to be an issue, so Trubisky will have an opportunity to stave off naysayers since Wentz is likely going to set a pace for him to follow. Both Darren Sproles and DeSean Jackson are slated to return for an offense that has missed his contributions, so Wentz will have all of the Eagles’ toys at his disposal despite not having Peters out there to create space. Khalil Mack will have help back up front with Bilal Nichols in the mix after overcoming an injury. Safety Eddie Jackson is a go as well despite being hampered by a hamstring issue.

Vikings (-3.5/47) at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The expectation is that Kansas City will wisely sit Patrick Mahomes, holding him out to heal for at least another week. Matt Moore will try and pick up a victory in what is set to be the Chiefs’ fourth home game in five weeks. If they fall as an underdog, they’ll have gone 1-4 in those games. Kansas City faces a long road ahead of it in needing to step up on the road just to make the playoffs, but it’s hard to argue that they face an uphill battle here. Veteran former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and his brain trust will have a strong defensive game plan in place against Moore after Andy Reid put everything he was looking to accomplish on display in attempting to pull off an upset against Green Bay. The ‘over’ is 5-3 in their games.

Safety Jayvon Kearse is considered questionable after being charged with DWI, but corners Xavier Rhoades and Holton Hill are going to be available in the secondary. Minnesota will look to keep everything in front of them so there could be short throws available to Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce. The Vikes have upgraded Adam Thielen to probable and will therefore have their entire offense available. Dalvin Cook has been the league’s most productive running back and should have a big day since wind could be a factor at Arrowhead. Kansas City’s defense has had issues containing opposing running backs.

Packers (-4/48.5) at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: I wrote a few weeks ago that it would be foolish to try and fade Aaron Rodgers at the moment and he’s been able to help the Packers overcome the absence of Davante Adams with his brilliance. The expectation is that Adams is returning for this game, so riding Rodgers in Southern California seems like a no-brainer since he’s about to play in front of Green Bay West with Packers’ fans set to invade Carson for this game. The Chargers are have WR Keenan Allen in the mix to improve their chances but limited him last week due to a hamstring injury and aren’t likely to over-extend him here.

RB Aaron Jones leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns despite splitting red-zone work with Jamaal Williams of late and dropping a sure touchdown catch on a wheel route a few weeks ago. Rodgers has been able to rely on a running game to help him navigate the absence of Adams and has also seen tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga remain active, the latter playing through a broken finger. L.A. lost safety Derwin James in the preseason and hasn’t been able to adequately replace him. Roderic Teamer is now doubtful due to a groin injury, complicating matters. Top run stuffer Brandon Mebane was hoping to return after missing multiple games but he’s considered doubtful. Justin Jones is dealing with a shoulder issue and is also unlikely to play, while DT Cortez Broughton and safety Nasir Adderley have been ruled out.

Can'tPickAWinner

11-03-2019, 09:52 AM

NFL Week 9 Sunday odds and line moves: Public on Patriots, sharps on Ravens
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 9 features a Pros vs. Joes wagering battle in the Sunday night game. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

PATRIOTS AT RAVENS – OPEN: +4; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +3

The last time New England lost, many of us were still buttoning down our holiday shopping. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are on a 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS spree, with their last loss coming in mid-December. In Week 8, the Pats (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore is atop the AFC North with a 5-2 SU mark, but is the exact opposite with the spread, at 2-5 ATS. The Ravens are on a three-game SU streak and coming off a bye, following an impressive 30-16 victory over Seattle as 3-point road underdogs.

The sharps are on the Ravens and the public is on the Patriots, and Shelton expects the book to be with the wiseguys in this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

“I’m surprised we’re still at Patriots -3. I can’t imagine this closes at 3,” Shelton said, noting his expectation that the line is heading upward. “But right now, the money is really close. Ticket count is 3.5/1 Patriots. It’s got all day to brew, with parlays and all that. We’re gonna need the Ravens by the night, I’m confident about that.”

PACKERS AT CHARGERS – OPEN: +3; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +4

Green Bay is solid on the field and against the oddsmakers, sporting marks of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Packers went off as 5-point favorites at Kansas City last Sunday night and withstood a strong charge to win 31-24.

Los Angeles hopes to continue climbing after it halted a 1-5 SU skid in Week 8 (1-4-1 ATS). The Chargers (3-5 SU, 2-4-2 ATS) rallied from a 16-7 third-quarter deficit at Chicago to post a 17-16 victory catching 3.5 points.

“This game is completely one-sided. Sharps and public are piling on the Packers. Ticket count is 15/1, money is 17/1,” Shelton said of pointspread activity, while noting parlays and moneyline parlays also loom large for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. “Everything in the early games is gonna flow to the Packers. I’d say this is the biggest game of the day, except I can’t say that with the Patriots playing Sunday night.”

VIKINGS AT CHIEFS – OPEN: -4; MOVE: NONE

It took until Saturday to get a little clarity, but it appears quarterback Patrick Mahomes won’t be on the field for this 1 p.m. ET kick, after Kansas City activated Chad Henne from injured reserve. That said, Mahomes is still listed as questionable as he recovers from a dislocated kneecap suffered in Week 7.

In Week 8, the Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) rode Matt Moore to a respectable Sunday night showing, but they didn’t have enough for Green Bay, losing 31-24 as 5-point home pups. For the moment, Moore would be the starter and Henne the backup today.

Minnesota is rested and ready, coming off the bye week and on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

Due to Mahomes’ uncertainty, the line for this game was off the board all week, finally going up Saturday night.

“Not much here, because we hung this so late,” Shelton said. “The line seems right. We hung 4 and nothing really happened with it. We’ve got a little more money on Minnesota, and ticket count is 2/1 on Minnesota.”

BEARS AT EAGLES – OPEN: -4.5; MOVE: NONE

Chicago went 12-4 SU and ATS last season, and while it can still match that SU mark, it would have go 9-0 the rest of the way to do so. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) let a 16-7 third-quarter lead slip away against the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 17-16 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.

Philadelphia halted a 2-4 SU and ATS skid with a much-needed Week 8 victory to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) breezed by Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road.

“It’s pretty much all Eagles, all public,” Shelton said of this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “Ticket count almost 4/1, money 3/1 in favor of the Eagles. Sharps haven’t really gotten involved, and the public doesn’t believe in Mitch Trubisky. It makes sense.”