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Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 17 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 11-4-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 145-88-1
Against the Spread 112-130-10

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 134-117-1
Against the Spread 106-136-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 126-124-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+17, ML +1000) at Patriots, 27-24
Jaguars (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Colts, 38-20
Bengals (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Browns, 33-23

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-14) at Panthers, 42-10
Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Redskins, 47-16
Titans (-9.5) at Texans, 35-14

Miami Not Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins headed up to Foxboro with nothing to loose, but head coach Brian Flores wanted to show mentor head coach Bill Belichick how far his team has come since an early-season beatdown in Miami. The New England Patriots headed came home from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Garden back in Week 2 with a 43-0 victory in tow, easily covering a 18-point number. As a 17-point favorite on Sunday, things didn't work out as well.

It was a costly loss for the Patriots, too, as the loss to the five-win Dolphins ended up costing them a bye. Now, the Patriots will have to play another member of the Belichick coaching tree, as Mike Vrabel will lead his Tennessee Titans into town next Saturday night for the primetime AFC Wild-Card Game battle. The Titans and Patriots didn't face each other during the regular season.

After opening the season 0-7 SU, the Dolphins finished up 5-4 SU in their final nine games, and 9-3 ATS across the final 12 games. After looking anything like an NFL-caliber team during the early going, the Dolphins showed no quick, dispelled any talk of tanking and they might have finished runner-up to the Atlanta Falcons for the unofficial 'No Quit' award.

Total Recall

-- Week 17 is usually a difficult slate of games to handicap, as so many teams elect to rest starters, either for the entire game, part of the game or they get wind of a score in another city and change their plan at the last minute.

Two teams who were not doing that gave us one of the most entertaining games of the 2019 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks (47) had an entertaining game which started out rather defensive. There were just 13 points on the board at halftime, all for the Niners. The Seahawks fought back and came within inches of a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. They got a first and goal at the 1, but a delay of game penalty sent them backward, and they were scrambling for plays. A pass play to TE Jacob Hollister was snuffed out, literally, at the 1-inch line on fourth and goal. After a series of reviews, the Niners were award the ball with :09 left. Under bettors, and side bettors (-3.5) everywhere were screaming at NBC Sports commentator Al Michaels, as well as his cohort Cris Collinsworth, who suggested the Niners take a safety and/or run around in the end zone and take a knee. That would have flipped so many tickets. QB Jimmy Garoppolo had other ideas, rushing ahead of a QB sneak to run out the clock. Disaster averted. The game ended up a push, and San Francisco continued to cover.

The highest total on the board was the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5). Things appeared to be headed for an easy over ticket, as the Bucs led 22-16 at halftime. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and just six points from the Falcons in the fourth to force overtime. A field goal would have meant an 'under' result, but QB Jameis Winston was picked off by LB Deion Jones, who returned the easy pick-six for the win, and the 'over' ticket. It was a bad beat, or as big of a bad beat as the NFL card in Week 17 would offer.

The Sunday nighter was the only primetime game, and it was a push at most shops - so that's what we'll call it. For the season, the 'over' is just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

These teams will meet for the first time this season. Buffalo was an impressive 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS with the 'under' connecting in six of their eight games on the road.

For the Texans, they also rested their starters like the Bills in Week 17. Both teams are coming off of home losses, but it shouldn't affect either side. The Texans (-3, 42) are favored at home, but essentially Vegas is calling it a pick 'em, as generally the home side is given a three-point edge. The Texans ended the season a little on the banged up side, with their top skill position players battling nagging injuries. They'll have six days to rest and get ready. The 'under' was 6-3 in the final nine for Houston.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Titans were dominant down the stretch, looking like an NFL caliber team once QB Ryan Tannehill took the reins of the offense. Whether he is back, or the team elects to draft a quarterback, it's pretty clear the Marcus Mariota experience is over in Nashville. These teams also did not meet during the regular season. The Titans hit the 'over' in nine of their final 10 games after opening on a 5-1 'under' run. They were 5-3 ATS in the final eight road games, including 3-0 ATS with an 'over' in the final three away outings.

The Patriots (-5, 44) bring the experience into the Wild-Card Game, and they'll have a little anger after blowing a bye against the hapless Dolphins. The 'over' hit in their final three games, too.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Vikings pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle back on Jan. 14, 2018, when WR Stefon Diggs squirted free for a miracle touchdown on the final play to stun the Saints. Don't think the fans, and the Saints, haven't forgotten. Plus, the Saints have the bad juju from last season's pass-interference non-call against the Rams, which led to sweeping changes to the rules, allowing coaches' challenges.

These teams didn't face each other in the regular season. The Vikings were 4-2 SU/ATS in the final six road games for the Vikings. The Saints (-8, 47) roll in with three straight wins and covers to lock up a home game in the first round, and they're 11-3 ATS across the past 14 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The only wild-card matchup which saw the teams meet in the regular season is this game. A costly loss at home to the 49ers cost the Seahawks a home playoff game, and now they must go cross-country to meet the four-seed Eagles. Seattle won 17-9 back on Nov. 24 after a bye, easily hitting the 'under' as 1.5-point favorites. They'll enter in a similar spot, favored by one with a total of 46.

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NFL Wild Card betting opening odds and early action: Saints strong favorites vs Vikings
Patrick Everson

The NFL regular season gives way to the new year and the playoffs, starting with Wild Card weekend. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the four matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)

New Orleans gets a chance to avenge the Miracle in Minneapolis from the 2017-18 playoffs and is surely still hot about the noncall of pass interference that ended its 2018-19 playoff run. The Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) closed with a 42-10 rout of Carolina as 13.5-point road favorites, finishing the regular season with the NFL’s best spread-covering mark.

Minnesota broke New Orleans’ heart on a crazy touchdown play in the divisional round two years ago. This year, the Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are skidding into the postseason, losing their last two and three of their last five. In Week 17, locked into the sixth seed and resting many of their starters, the Vikes fell to Chicago 21-19 as 5-point home underdogs.

“It’s hard to trust Kirk Cousins in a big game, and we consider the Saints the best team in the NFC,” Murray said in assessing this contest, set for 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday. “The Saints will be in every moneyline parlay this weekend.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Seattle came mere inches short of nabbing the NFC’s No. 2 seed, a first-round bye and a home game in the divisional round. Instead, the Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) fell to the fifth seed after losing to San Francisco 26-21 Sunday night as 3.5-point home underdogs. On fourth-and-goal in the waning seconds, Seattle came up a hair short of the end zone.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia won the NFC East and is the No. 4 seed despite having the worst record of all the NFC postseason qualifiers. In Week 17, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) assured their playoff spot with a 34-17 road victory over the New York Giants as 4-point favorites.

“We opened Philly -1, but flipped to Seahawks -1 already,” Murray said late Sunday night, shortly after The SuperBook posted the playoff lines. “This number may go higher due to the time slot (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday). The public will be on the Seahawks and a ton of parlays will close with Seahawks.”

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England needed only to beat lowly Miami on Sunday to nail down the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC. But the Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) failed to do so, stunningly losing 27-24 on a last-minute touchdown as hefty 17.5-point home favorites, falling to the third seed.

Tennessee was in a win-and-you’re-in situation in Week 17, and fortunately, Houston – with the AFC South wrapped up – opted to rest its key players. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) ultimately got bet up to 10-point road favorites and rolled 35-14 to take the sixth seed.

“There will be good two-way action on this game,” Murray said of the Saturday night Wild Card contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. “Obviously, the public will support the Patriots as always, but I also think we will see money come in on the Titans, given how much New England has struggled on offense recently.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

Houston won the AFC South and could’ve possibly moved from No. 4 to No. 3, but opted to rest DeShaun Watson and several others, playing it safe in Week 17. As such, the Texans (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home underdogs against Tennessee and got rolled 35-14.

No. 5 seed Buffalo was one of the bigger surprises of the season, going 10-6 SU (9-5-2 ATS), although Sean McDermott’s squad dropped its last two regular-season games. In Week 17 against the New York Jets, the Bills didn’t keep QB Josh Allen in long and mustered just two field goals in a 13-6 home loss catching 1.5 points.

“This will likely be the lowest-handle game of the weekend and probably not a big decision,” Murray said of the first Wild Card kickoff, at 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. “There should be support for both teams. It’s hard to trust Josh Allen here, but it’s also hard to trust Bill O’Brien laying points. Flip a coin.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AFC Wild Card Notes

Buffalo at Houston

Saturday, Jan. 4 (ESPN-ABC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Bills Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS
Texans Home Record: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Houston -3 with a total of 39 ½. The overnight line has held steady while the total was pushed up to 41 ½.

Head-to-Head

Buffalo and Houston did not meet this season, as the Texans defeated the Bills, 20-13 at NRG Stadium in 2018, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Buffalo has dropped four of the past five meetings with Houston dating back to 2009, with three of those losses coming in the Lone Star State. These teams are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time as the last time Buffalo faced a Houston franchise in the postseason, it was the Oilers who blew a 35-3 advantage in a stunning 41-38 overtime defeat to the Bills in 1992. But the Oilers are now the Titans, so that doesn’t apply for this matchup.

Playoff Notes

Houston has claimed the AFC South title six times in the last nine seasons, as the Texans are 3-2 all-time in the Wild Card round. All five of those games have been played at home, but the Texans lost to the Colts last season in the opening round, 21-7. Houston has never reached an AFC Championship in its short history, but have scored 7 points total in its two losses in the Wild Card round in 2015 and 2018.

The Bills last won a playoff game in 1995 against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round, while their previous postseason appearance came in a 10-3 setback at Jacksonville in 2017. Buffalo captured four straight AFC titles from 1990-1993, but are 1-5 in the playoffs in the last 25 seasons.

Total Notes

The Bills were one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league this season by cashing the ‘under’ in 12 of 16 games. Buffalo yielded 17 points or fewer 10 times, including five times on the road. In all five opportunities as an away underdog, the Bills tallied 17 points or fewer, with its highest output in this role coming against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in a 26-15 triumph.

The Texans were a streaky team in the totals department this season. After eclipsing the ‘over’ in the season opener at New Orleans, Houston hit three consecutive ‘unders,’ followed by three straight ‘overs’, then four ‘unders’ in a row. The ‘over’ went 4-4 at NRG Stadium, although they finished the season with three consecutive ‘overs’ at home. Houston topped the 30-point mark only twice this season and not since a Week 5 victory at Kansas City, 31-24.


Tennessee at New England

Saturday, Jan. 4 (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Patriots Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out New England -5 ½ and that opener has held overnight but the total has gone from 41 ½ to 43 ½.

Head-to-Head

The two teams did not meet this season as the Titans rolled the Patriots in Nashville, 34-10 as 6 ½-point home underdogs in 2018. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak by New England over Tennessee dating back to 2003. The Titans have never won in Foxborough since relocating to Tennessee in 1997, with each of the past three losses coming by double-digits.

Playoff Notes

The Titans are back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they rallied to stun the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, 22-21. Tennessee was knocked out by New England in the divisional playoffs, 35-14 at Gillette Stadium, but the Titans own a 3-1 record in the Wild Card round since moving to Nashville from Houston.

For the first time since 2009, the Patriots are playing the first weekend of the playoffs after owning the bye for nine straight years. New England has won its first playoff game in each of the last eight seasons, while representing the AFC in the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons. The Patriots are 9-0 in their last nine home playoff contests with the last loss coming to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship.

Total Notes

The Titans started the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback. However, since Ryan Tannehill has taken control of this offense, the ‘over’ has cashed in nine of 10 games, including all four games played away from Nissan Stadium. In seven of Tannehill’s 10 starts, the Titans have scored 27 points or more, while allowing 21 points or fewer in three straight road contests.

The Patriots hit the ‘under in eight of the first 11 games of the season, but the ‘over’ has come through in four of the final five contests. The ‘over’ went 4-4 in eight games at Gillette Stadium, while giving up 17 points or less in six home contests before yielding 27 points to the Dolphins in the season finale. The offense posted 30 points or more in each of their first three home wins, but failed to put up more than 27 points in any of their last five contests at Foxborough.

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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Wild Card Weekend odds: Media could help move Minnesota spread
Jason Logan

With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

With only four games on the board and the focus of the entire football world on the NFL Wild Card Weekend, the odds for the opening round of the playoffs have as much wiggle room as an “economy” seat on a discount airline.

That makes getting the best of the spread and total vital for your postseason betting opinions. Covers Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan sizes up the Wild Card lines and gives his best bets to make now and which ones you want to make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-3)

The Texans opened as field-goal favorites for this first-round matchup, enjoying a bit of bye week by resting starters in the season finale. Houston had the luxury of knowing it had nothing to play for once Kansas City won in the early kickoffs and rolled over for Tennessee in Week 17, with starters on the sideline.

The Bills also had little on the line when it lost to the Jets in Week 17, but still played some key players in the first half before yanking them and giving way to a loss. Buffalo hits the road for the Wild Card Weekend with three losses in its last four games but has been profitable as a road pup with a 4-0-2 ATS mark when getting the points as a visitor.

If you like Houston in this matchup, you will want to strike now at take the -3 before a nasty half-point hook shows up. Some books are already dealing Texans -3.5 but most have just tacked an extra five cents on to the vig, which would indicate a move to 3.5 is likely coming.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Books opened New Orleans as a 7.5-point home favorite for this Wild Card war with Minnesota and early money pounced on the Saints, pushing the spread to the dead number of -8 as of Monday morning.

New Orleans has looked flat-out dominant in recent weeks, outscoring its last three opponents by a combined score of 114-45. The Saints covered in all three of those matchups and could also have a bit of revenge in mind for Minnesota, given how the last postseason meeting between these two franchises finished. The media will play up the playoff rematch and the Over/Under on replays of the “Minneapolis Miracle” is at 100,000.

The Vikings also backed into the tournament on two straight losses (granted Week 17 was a giveaway) and left a bad taste in the mouths of bettors with a stinker against Green Bay in a must-win Week 16 contest. With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The total for this AFC Wild Card game opened as low as 41.5 and shot up as high as 44 points with early play on the Over. It would seem that initial action has faith in the Patriots offense finally showing up after laying dormant most of the season.

In a rare twist, it’s Ryan Tannehill and the Titans who swing the big stick on that side of the ball. Tennessee’s scoring has been transformative since going with the former Dolphins QB, who faces a familiar foe in the opening round of the postseason. However, the Titans’ best plan of attack should be RB Derrick Henry and plenty of him. That way they can control the clock and lower their risk of turning the ball over – something New England is very dependant upon.

Those books that did tick the total as high as 44 got instant buyback on the Under, so the 43.5 may be a good as it gets for those fans of the Under. While recent trends show the Titans and Pats riding respective runs for the Over, the backbone for both teams is defense. The weather looks to be cold and damp in Foxborough, with temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday night.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 46 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Seahawks and Eagles meet in the “Band-Aid Bowl” with both squads limping into the postseason. The theme song for this battle of the birds should be Mr. Mister’s airy 80’s hit “Broken Wings”, given the length of the injury reports.

Books opened this total at 46 points and while most are standing pat at that number (select books serving 45.5), some sharper markets are starting to discount the juice on the Over with money coming in on a lower-scoring finish. Seattle’s recent offensive efforts are playing into that lean, scoring only 21 points versus San Francisco in Week 17 and putting up just 13 points in a stunning loss to Arizona in Week 16.

These foes met in Philadelphia back in Week 12, with a 17-9 Seattle win staying well below the total of 45.5 points. If you fancy yourself a contrarian and like the Over, give this total some time to breathe. It should come down before those injury updates on Thursday and Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

141BUFFALO -142 HOUSTON
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

143TENNESSEE -144 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

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BUFFALO (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (10 - 6) - 1/4/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/4/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 123-158 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-152 ATS (+39.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-73 ATS (+25.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-89 ATS (+32.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

Buffalo @ Houston

Game 141-142
January 4, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.066
Houston
131.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Tennessee @ New England

Game 143-144
January 4, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.201
New England
134.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Wild Card Round

Last two seasons, underdogs are 7-0-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Saturday
Bills (10-6) @ Texans (10-6)—Buffalo is in playoffs for 2nd time in three years, but they lost last five playoff games- their last playoff win was in 1995. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won a Wild Card game three years ago. Bills lost three of last four games overall, scoring 14.3 ppg, completing less than half their passes; they’re 5-3 SU on road TY, 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 7-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. Seven of their last nine games went under the total. Texans are 6-2 TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points; they’re 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last nine games stayed under. Houston won four of last five series games; Buffalo lost its last three visits here, by 12-6-7 points.

Titans (9-7) @ Patriots (12-4)— New England is in Wild Card game for first time in ten years; they won AFC the last three years, played in AFC title game the last eight years. Patriots split their last eight games overall after an 8-0 start; they’re 0-3 allowing more than 17 points. NE is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite- four of their last five games went over. Patriots are -3 in turnovers the lat two games, after being +24 up to that point. Tennessee is 7-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last three road games, scoring 36 ppg. Titans are 5-3 SU on road TY; they’re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last nine games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years; they upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in this round two years ago, then lost 35-14 here. NE won seven of last eight series games, but lost 34-10 in Nashville LY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Wild Card Round

Trend Report

Saturday, January 4

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Houston

New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Total Betting History

Playing the ‘under’ on Wild Card weekend has been a money-making machine for bettors over the years, especially lately. The low side has gone 3-1 each of the last two postseasons and it’s on a 20-7-1 (74%) over the last seven years. If you go back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 38-21-1 (64%).

2018 Wild Card Results
Indianapolis 21 at Houston 7 - UNDER 49
Seattle 22 at Dallas 24 - OVER 43.5
L.A. Chargers 23 at Baltimore 17 - UNDER 42.5
Philadelphia 16 at Chicago 15 - UNDER 42

2017 Wild Card Results
Tennessee 22 at Kansas City 21 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 26 at L.A. Rams 13 - UNDER 48.5
Buffalo 10 at Jacksonville 3 - UNDER 40
Carolina 31 at New Orleans 26 - OVER 47.5

Will we finally see a ‘over’ barrage in the Wild Card round? That’s a hard question to answer but if there was a sign of change coming, Week 17 did watch the high side go 12-3-1 and that was eye-opening considering the last week of the season has always trended to ‘under’ tickets.

Best Bet Selections

Eleven games left in the NFL season and I’m happy to write the “Total Talk” pieces again for the playoffs. For those of you following along to my “Best Bet” selections on the Bet and Collect Podcast this season, thanks for the support and hope you cashed tickets. The 17-week record finished at 29-22 (57%) and for the postseason, I’m going to provide my selections here plus you can listen to the analysis every weekend as well.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Buffalo at Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game at 39 ½ and it’s been pushed up to 43 as of Tuesday. Houston has been installed as the short home favorite (-2 ½) and based on that number, oddsmakers are expecting a 23-20 win for the Texans. The number getting juiced up does look like a headscratcher on paper, knowing Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 12-4 this season with identical 6-2 marks coming at both home and on the road. Houston has also leaned to the ‘under’ (9-7) and that could easily be 10-6 if Titans running back Derrick Henry didn’t scamper for the late score last week.

Looking at those numbers, the obvious lean would be to a low-scoring match up on Saturday but I can see why the number was nudged up. Including the meaningless loss to Tennessee in Week 17, the Texans went 3-3 against playoff teams this season and they averaged 27.6 points per game in the wins while only scoring 16.3 PPG in the losses. We can toss out the statistics from last Sunday but it’s hard to forget the 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore on Nov. 17. Including that result, the Texans have allowed 28.3 PPG against playoff teams and while that number drops to 22.3 PPG in the three wins, it’s still not great.

Can Buffalo get anywhere near that average? While the Bills defense (15.6 PPG) has been lights out on the road, the same can’t be said for the offense (21.5 PPG). Overall, the Bills schedule was very weak and they only faced five playoff teams and a 1-4 record certainly doesn’t offer up much confidence. If you want to rationalize to the Bills at all, they did go 1-1 on the road versus playoff teams but the offense only mustered up 15.5 PPG versus the Titans (W 14-7) and Patriots (L 17-24).

Houston defeated Buffalo 20-13 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (40 ½) was never in doubt. Including that result, the ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

The Bills haven’t had much postseason history, their last trip coming in the 2017 season and that ended with a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round. Houston owns a 3-5 all-time record, and that includes a 3-2 mark at NRG Stadium. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in those games. When Houston wins at home in the playoffs, it’s held opponents to 14, 13 and 10 points. When it loses, it’s allowed 21 and 30 while only scoring seven points in those games. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson wasn’t sharp in last year’s Wild Card 21-7 loss to Indianapolis at home.

Fearless Prediction

I often tell myself not to “overthink it” and I believe that’s the case here. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buffalo go into Houston and win the game, I don’t believe second-year QB Josh Allen will be the reason if that happens. The Bills Team Total Under (20) looks like a solid lean knowing they’ve only cracked that number five times in their last 16 road games and never against a team with a winning record. I think we’re looking at a 21-16, 20-13 outcome with Houston coming out on top.


Tennessee at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The late-night matchup on Saturday also saw upward steam as the total was sent out at 41 ½ and the number is up to 44. It’s going to be weird to see New England playing in the Wild Card round, something it hasn’t done since the 2009 playoffs. For those who remember, the Patriots were embarrassed 33-14 at Foxboro by the Ravens as running back Ray Rice dominated for Baltimore.

Fast forward to this matchup and it appears that bettors are expecting another upset in New England, with the early action going to Tennessee (+5 ½ to +4 ½). Since that loss to the Ravens, the Patriots have gone 12-2 at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs but plenty of those victories came on the shoulders of QB Tom Brady. If you’ve watched New England play this season, you’re well aware that the offense is nowhere near previous squads. The Patriots are ranked seventh in scoring offense (26.2 PPG) but the production has dropped a bit at home (25.2 PPG).

Defensively the unit only allowed 14.1 PPG albeit against a strength of schedule that was tied for second to last in the NFL. When facing playoff opponents, New England went 3-3 and the defense was great in the wins (12.3 PPG) but humbled in the losses (29.3 PPG). The ‘under’ was 9-7 on the season. The Titans defense (20.7 PPG) wasn’t on the same level as New England but it was sneaky good this season and it played a tougher scheduled (8th). Also, the unit traveled well and only allowed 17.6 PPG outside of Nashville. Tennessee was a clear-cut ‘under’ team at the beginning of the season, with the low side cashing in five of their first six games. Then, QB Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans averaged 27.6 PPG compared to 16.3 PPG with Mariota. That production led to a 9-1 ‘over’ mark down the stretch and that includes the aforementioned lucky ticket last week in Houston.

It’s nice to see Tannehill getting some recognition but I still have my reservations on him and the Titans defense too. Tennessee only faced four playoff teams with him under center and they went 2-2, which includes Houston laying down last week. A 35-32 home win over Kansas City in Week 10 was surprising for the Titans, especially since the Chiefs let up the box score with 530 total yards. Including the Week 5 outcome to the Bills (L 7-14) at home, the Titans were 2-3 overall against playoff squads and the ‘under’ went 3-2 in those games.

These teams have met twice in the last three seasons. Tennessee stomped New England 34-10 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (46 ½) connected. This was a statement win for Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls playing linebacker for Bill Belichick. The pair also met in the 2017 playoffs and New England blasted Tennessee 35-14 as the ‘over’ cashed late with a meaningless touchdown by the Titans. Prior to that results, the Titans saw the ‘under’ cash in their previous five postseason games – dating back to 2004 though.

Fearless Prediction

The question for me in this game - Can you back Tannehill in his first career playoff spot at Foxboro? During his tenure with Miami, he went 0-5 at Gillette Stadium while the Dolphins only averaged 11.6 PPG in the losses. All the blame can’t be placed on him, but his 4-10 touchdown-interception ratio didn’t help the cause. Fortunately for Tannehill, this Titans team has playmakers and I believe the Tennessee Team Total Over (19 ½) is a strong look. I also believe New England wins this game and that will have me leaning to the Over (44) in the game as well. I’ll call it 26-23 for the home team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


PLAYOFFS’ WORST OFFENSES

The Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, Broncos and Steeler: that’s the list of teams the Bills have beaten this year. The best team and only playoff team on that list are the 9-7 Titans who were quaterbacked by Marcus Mariota back in Week 5. This week, the Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked offense heads to Houston to take on a Texans team who has the next worst DVOA offense (17th) out of the 12 playoff teams.

The Bills’ team total sits at 19.5 (-134) and will likely move up past the key number of 20.5 as the total continues to rise after opening at 39.5. Buffalo finished 4-4 down the stretch and hasn't topped 20 points since Thanksgiving.

The Houston offense hasn’t exactly been turning heads of late as well. Over the last three weeks, Deshaun Watson’s offense is averaging just 301 yards of offense per game which is the 24th-most over that stretch. Having their No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins shadowed by Buffalo corner Tre’Davious White could also mitigate the offense’s big-play ability.

We are going to wait to see if the Bills’ team total moves to 20.5 and will buy on the bigger number. However, we love the way the total is moving and are taking the Under 43.5. We might even buy another share down if Houston receiver WIll Fuller can’t suit up or may be limited.


HENRY TO SEND PATS PACKING

Titans running back Derrick Henry is a 250-pound truck that is capable of taking Tennessee to the divisional round. The big back has been an absolute terror against Top-10 teams this year per TeamRanking.com. Henry is averaging 144 yards per game rushing against the league’s best and faces a New England defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry (14th) on the year.

Henry’s rushing total sits at 90.5 yards which he has gone Over in five of his last six games. A big reason for his production is just sheer volume. Henry led the league at 20.5 rushes per game but saw nearly 24 totes a game over the last month. The Patriots have only faced three RBs who carried 20 or more times this year: Joe Mixon 25-136, Ezekiel Elliott 21-86 and Nick Chubb 20-131.

If the Titans have faith in their running game against New England and let Henry wear down the defense with 20-plus rushes, the 90.5 yard total is a reasonable play. Take the Over.


SCOTT OFF THE PRESS

The Seattle Seahawks’ rush defense is limping into the playoffs having giving up on average of 172 rushing yards per game over the final three matches of the year which works out 5.7 yards per carry. They ranked 26th in DVOA rush defense and will have to deal with Philadelphia’s impressive offensive line who aided Boston Scott in his three rushing touchdowns and Miles Sanders to 5.8 ypc before exiting with an injury last week.

There is some uncertainty with the Eagles’ backfield heading into Sunday’s game, but it is a profitable situation to monitor as Seattle has allowed the second-most road rushing TDs in the league at 1.5 per game. Sanders is dealing with a “low-grade ankle sprain” and is considered day-to-day. Jordan Howard came back to the lineup last week and logged just one snap and may not be close to 100 percent.

If we had to pick a side, our money would be on Boston Scott especially after a trio of TDs last week. He proved he could get it done in the red zone taking three of his four RZ carries to the house. We are monitoring the situation, but are willing to put some money on Scott to score even if Sanders and Howard are part of the game plan — but likely limited.


HAND OF GOEDERT

Zach Ertz sounds like he won’t get any practice in this week as he tries to get back on the field while dealing with rib and kidney issues. Even if the star tight end does suit up, it will most likely be in a limited fashion meaning Dallas Goedert will be the man again against the Seahawks.

Goedert has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks and should be the focal point of the passing offense against the Seahawks. Seattle let 49ers TE George Kittle put up 86 yards on seven grabs last week and is averaging 67.7 yards to opposing TEs (3rd-most).

Goedert’s markets aren’t open yet as books are waiting to see what happens with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. But knowing what our limit is total-wise before the market is set is a valuable tool we can use. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s receiving total on any number below 72 yards as Carson Wentz is averaging 43 passes a game over the last four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


SINGLING OUT SINGLETARY

Houston has the worst DVOA defense (26th) in the playoffs. Their 26th-ranked pass defense shouldn’t be overmatched versus Buffalo’s 23rd-ranked pass offense, but their rush defense that allowed 171 yards on the ground per game over the final weeks could get exposed to the Bills’ rushing game and more specifically Devin Singletary.

In Weeks 9 through 16, the rookie running back averaged 16.5 carries for 79.6 yards. Singletary could be in for a big game as his opponent is allowing running backs to rush for 5.8 yards per carry which is the second-most ypc over that stretch.

With the inconsistencies of Buffalo’s passing game, its best route to the Divisional round is through its ground game. We still don’t like the Bills running up the score, but they certainly can find success on the ground. Take the Over on Singletary’s rushing total of 69.5 yards.


LIBERTY BELL SACK SQUAD

Nine of the 12 teams in the playoffs finished in the Top-15 in sacks per game with only Seattle, Houston and Baltimore finishing in the bottom half. Of those nine, six finished inside the Top-10 over the final weeks (MIN, GB, NO, KC, TEN and PHI). We could be seeing a fair share of sacks in the Wild Card games especially in Philadelphia where the Seahawks are allowing 3.9 sacks on the road this year.

Russell Wilson is playing behind an offensive line that has four members on the I.R. and its starting left tackle Duane Brown is likely out for Sunday’s game. The Philly D-line looked great at creating pressure last week in New York as the Eagles sacked Daniel Jones four times and forced two fumbles.

Carson Wentz has played admirably with his group of rag-tag receivers, but Wentz can get in trouble waiting for his practice-squad receivers to get open. In his last five home games, the Eagles QB has been sacked 16 times. Having injured running backs trying to pick up their pass-pro assignments won’t help his cause either.

We are putting our 2020 dollars on the Over 5.5 sacks in this Sunday evening tilt.


THOMAS THE CATCH ENGINE

The Minnesota Vikings secondary will have its hands full in dealing with Saints WR Michael Thomas. Thomas led the league in receiving yards (1,725) and set an NFL record with 149 receptions. On Sunday, the Saints receiver will face a Minnesota defense that is allowing 77.3 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs — the 7th-most in the league.

Through four career playoff games, Thomas is averaging nearly eight catches for 106 yards and topped 130 yards twice. At home this year, he is putting up a league best 128 yards on 11 catches.

Minnesota gave up a 13-116 to Davante Adams in Week 16 and a 9-99 to Keenan Allen the week before. We have no problem taking the Over on Thomas’ reception total of 9.5 as the receiver has reached 10 grabs in seven of eight home games this year.


INDOOR INHABITANTS

The New Orleans Saints have scored the most first-half points over the last three weeks and are putting up over 14 points in the first 30 at home this year. Since Week 13, New Orleans’ first-half totals have been 38, 24, 20, 55 and 26 points as its defense gives up 11.1 points in the first two quarters at home.

Minnesota has been consistent in the first half, putting up 14 points a game at home and on the road. They are 2-2 O/U first-half totals of 24 or more over the last four games (not including Week 17).

Helping these teams hit the Over are their abilities to keep drives alive. New Orleans is converting 48 percent of its third downs at home (3rd) while Minnesots is converting 45 percent of third downs on the road (6th).

If you’re looking for an early play for this Sunday afternoon tilt, think about taking the 1H Over 24 as both teams are quite comfortable putting up points indoors.

[rocky57]

Big Ray Sports (Spooky Express) - CFB Comp Play - Southern Mississippi/Tulane Over 56

[rocky57]

Earl's Platinum Plays (Spooky Express) - NBA Comp Play - Oklahoma City Thunder -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and that means that bettors get to spend their usual amount of time handicapping NFL during the week, but narrowing down the research to just four games. That's quite critical in itself, but at the same time, just because it's the playoffs should you need to force a bet. Yes, you've got more time to dig into games, but if you don't find anything, you shouldn't be betting full units on plays you aren't fully comfortable with. Remember, if these matchups were held during a regular Sunday slate during the year, you might simply pass and move on to the next game. An important concept to keep in mind this time of year.

Nobody wants to read about how to pass on games in the sports betting market though, so let's see if we can find some significant angles for the games this weekend. The two AFC Wild Card games are up first, so that's where I'll begin.

Buffalo at Houston (4:35 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: Buffalo +2.5

A couple things to note off the top here, and that is, you probably want to buy this up to +3 for the best of the number, and with the juice currently sitting on the Houston side of things, it's not all that expensive. Secondly, thinking about the money-line (ML) with Buffalo is worth a look, but being safe is probably the better option for multiple reasons. Eventually this Bills run of not having won a playoff game since 1995 will be halted, and there is probably no better time then the present to do so.

However, I say taking the points is the better option because of one thing that speaks for backing Buffalo, but somewhat against taking the ML without some points already in your pocket. Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.

In this 12-team football tournament known as the NFL Playoffs, in the past five years, the team that's got the worst opponent 3rd down conversion percentage entering the playoffs – ie the defense can't get off the field – is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. That's the role the Houston Texans find themselves in this season with an absurd opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 48.51. Basically every other 3rd down gets converted by Houston opponents, and if you give a Bills offense that prefers to sustain (and capitalize) on long drives, a much better chance to do so, the Bills defense will make sure things look bleak for you the rest of the way.

The problem with that stat suggesting a ML play is the fact that the straight up (SU) record by these teams is actually 4-1 SU in these five games. That's a lot of narrow wins by home favorites in this spot, as their suspect 3rd down defense will always leave the backdoor cover open at worst, or forces said team to be playing uphill for the majority of the game and squeaking by with a late score.

Last year it was the Dallas Cowboys in this spot, and as -2.5 home favorites – the identical role Houston is currently in – a 24-22 SU win by Dallas was good enough to advance but not good enough for their backers. The 2017 postseason saw a similar story with the Saints winning SU but losing ATS by the hook in a five-point win over Carolina, while the 2015 Steelers pushed as small road favorites, and the 2014 Cowboys couldn't beat the Lions by enough margin.

This game landing on two points or less in a Houston win isn't the most likeliest of options, so I can understand a ML play on Buffalo only if you like the Bills, but a lot of funky things can happen in the playoffs and you can never have too many points because of it.

Buffalo's defense should be able to contain a Texans offense that runs quite hot and cold, and with the banged up playmaker bodies they have right now, asking them to be on the hotter side of that equation is tough. If Josh Allen wants to continue to take steps forward in his growth and development as a player, winning a playoff game now would be just that.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as the worst 3rd down team on offense – convert just 35.85% of their 3rd downs – but to do that and still be a 10-win team is impressive. It means that the defense keeps Buffalo in games no matter what, and against a Houston defense that gives up what they do on the “money down” the Bills offense should be able to get things running rather smoothly quite early.

Buffalo might end up being a rather 'popular' dog this weekend, but I'm more then fine with that being the case with these two teams involved.


Tennessee at New England (8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: New England Team Total Over 24.5

Tennessee sounds like they could be another underdog that becomes a popular choice, as the belief in New England continuing to reign over the AFC might be at an all time low. And really, it probably deserves to be given what the Patriots have put out their on the field since about November 1st. The schedule got tougher and better teams – teams with winning records – exposed New England.

Yet, while I would side with the overall idea that the Patriots reign atop this conference is over this year, I'm not so sure this is the game that we will see it happen. This year's New England team has the look of an aging champion who knows time is short and they know they'll likely fall but they won't go down without a fight. A home playoff game against a Titans team that's got a QB that Bill Belichick knows really well, is one of those “last stand” moments for the Patriots as those aging champions.

A glimpse into what was is all this Patriots team can provide their fans this year, and at home against Tennessee I believe that's the Patriots team we see. Because what do we see next from those aging champions? The youthful, upcoming alpha puts a beating on them as the torch doesn't get passed, but taken. Doesn't that sound like what may happen in Kansas City next week if New England wins this one at home?

If the Patriots are the ones who stand up and look like the dominant Pats of old here, getting 25 or more points should be attainable. In games against teams that made the playoffs this season, Tennessee gave up 27 points per game in the four games that mattered (excluding Week 17 vs Houston).

And if I'm wrong, and this is indeed the spot that the Patriots do fall, I doubt they go out with a whimper on their own field. As I touched on earlier, Belichick's got plenty of past game plans for facing Ryan Tannehill, and has got a good idea for what should likely work. Flip that knowledge into an early turnover or two, and the Patriots put up points.

Finally, as I touched on in a piece a few weeks ago when Buffalo was visiting New England in Week 16, you “don't tiptoe into Foxboro” if you expect to win, and a Titans win is going to have to likely come because Tennessee needs 28+ points to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's AFC Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5, 44), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Texans just won their fourth AFC South title under Bill O’Brien, but he was being heavily criticized as recently as last month before his team closed out with wins in four of five before tanking their meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee. If Houston fails to hold serve here, it would fall to 1-4 in playoff games under O’Brien, having advanced past “Wild Card” Weekend only once. The Texans handled a Raiders team forced to start current XFL first-rounder Connor Cook at QB in 2016 before suffering a 34-16 loss at the Patriots.

Houston (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) lost to division rival Indianapolis 21-7 last year and fell 30-0 against the Chiefs back in ’15. To say there’s pressure on O’Brien to win this game is an understatement.

The same can be said about Deshaun Watson, once dubbed Michael Jordan by Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, his college coach. He’s a decided improvement on Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, the other Texans quarterbacks who have started under O’Brien. He’s better than Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, the other two quarterbacks who won playoff games under Gary Kubiak and have therefore done something Watson has yet to. The third-year quarterback is just 0-1 but accounted for a single touchdown in a duel against Andrew Luck, throwing an interception and completing just 29 of 49 passes in an awful home loss where Houston failed to score until the fourth quarter of a game it trailed 21-0 at the break.

O’Brien and Watson are tied together in the hot seat. They’re in a situation where disappointing the home base again as they managed to last year could lead to early boos and ultimately mitigate the edge the Texans are supposed to have in welcoming the Bills into town. While O’Brien, also the team’s general manager, has improved the talent level, he’s ramped up expectations. Conservative play-calling and questionable in-game decisions have tried fans’ patience. Watson remains in their good graces, but he’s turned the ball over more this season and didn’t take a decided step forward. This is a big day for him.

Buffalo (10-6, 9-6-1) isn’t under the same type of burden. Reaching the playoffs for the second time in his three seasons makes Sean McDermott the most successful head coach since Wade Phillips was let go in ’99, and he’s indeed the winningest coach Buffalo has had of the 10 (head and interim) that have served at the helm for the team this century. Buffalo hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. Josh Allen will be making his first playoff start and is hoping to become the first Bills quarterback to throw a touchdown in the postseason since Doug Flutie did in a game he started against Dan Marino on Jan. 2, 1999. Yes, it’s been that long.

The Bills fell at Jacksonville 10-3 a couple of years ago and have to fear a similar ending considering that points have been hard to come by in their toughest contests. Second-year QB Josh Allen will be making his first career postseason start but went just 1-4 against playoff teams this season. Buffalo averaged 14.2 points in those games. Although veteran Frank Gore is in the mix, the Bills don’t have a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball to lean on as they hit the road. Leading rusher Devin Singletary is a rookie. Top receiver John Brown reached an NFC Championship game with Arizona in ’15 and hasn’t been back since.

Although the Texans’ defense has been vulnerable most of the season and has been taken advantage of in the red zone, the return of J.J Watt has the unit encouraged that it can perform their best when it matters most. Houston ranked 28th in total defense but gave up only four yards per rush as opposed to 5.34 without Watt, who obviously also makes the team’s pass rush all the more formidable in coming back from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27.

Allen has props of 219.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards available at Caesars. My expectation is that we’ll see him surpass the rushing prop because he’s certainly capable of putting up a big gainer or two on a scramble and often calls his own number on designed runs.

Buffalo would be favored at home given the spread in this contest, which is a nod to its superior defense. The Bills ranked third in yards allowed and gave up just 16.2 points per game. The Texans were 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite while Buffalo has yet to not cover a rod game this season (6-0-2 ATS), winning six of their eight outright. Watson threw for 26 touchdowns and 3,852 yards, while DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,165 receiving yards and seven touchdown passes. A prop on Hopkins going over 72.5 receiving yards is also attractive, as are any TD props involving tight end Jordan Akins.

Houston has won four of the last five meetings against the Bills, falling in Buffalo in 2015 but owning home victories in ’12, ’14 and most recently, last season. The Texans won 20-13 on Oct. 14, 2018, pulling away on a Jonathan Joseph pick-six of embattled former backup Nathan Peterman, who was in for Allen in the final quarter. Buffalo managed just 12 first downs and 229 total yards. Watson threw for just 177 yards and was picked off twice, but did hook up with Hopkins for a score.

The individual matchup between Hopkins and star Bills corner Tre’Davious White, a first-team All-Pro, should be this game’s most important. Houston’s x-factor will likely be RB Carlos Hyde, who will be tasked with keeping Watson and the offense in manageable passing situations as the workhorse. He topped the 100-yard mark in the big win in Tennessee in Week 15 that ultimately helped the Texans claim the division and will be key in keeping the Buffalo defense from being overly aggressive.

Wrapping up the AFC South entering Week 17 and being locked into the No. 4 seed allowed the Texans to rest starters last season, so they’re well-rested. While Watt is certain to play, O’Brien wasn’t as sure he’d have the services of No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who really makes the Texans offense far more dynamic when he’s been able to play. ESPN Stats & Info reports Houston’s QBR with him in the lineup is 75.2 with him and 59.8 without him while the team’s third-down conversion rate is 51.9 percent when he’s out there and way down at 32.9 when he’s been unavailable. Fuller has dealt with hamstring issues and now a groin injury that has him listed as a game-time decision.

Corners Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are questionable but should play. The Bills list DE Shaq Lawson, WR/KR Andre Roberts, RT Ty Nsekhe and CB Levi Wallace as questionable.

The ‘under’ went 12-4 in Bills games this season and favored the low side (9-7) in Houston games. For all “Total Talk” on Saturday’s AFC Wild Card games, read Chris David’s piece click here.


Tennessee at New England (-5, 44.5), 8:15 pm ET, CBS

A pair of Bill Belichick’s proteges may ultimately wind up teaming to end the Tom Brady era in New England with a thud few could’ve seen coming.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was one of Brady’s favorite teammates and won three Super Bowls with the Patriots over an eight-year span as a player before going into coaching upon his retirement a decade ago, will bring a team that has won five of their last seven games into Foxboro for a “Wild Card Weekend” date Belichick wanted no part of.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning coach just saw his Patriots fall to his most recent defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who guided Miami to a stunning 27-24 upset at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. The talent disparity between both rosters dictated that the game should’ve never been close, yet the Dolphins led for most of Sunday afternoon before Tom Brady led a late rally that Ryan Fitzpatrick erased with one final flourish.

Instead of getting to rest up their ailing bodies while watching the Chiefs welcome in the scary-looking Titans, the Patriots fumbled away the AFC’s second seed and the bye that went along with it and will have to suit up against Tennessee to try and avoid elimination. A defense that had barely allowed 13 points per game suddenly looks vulnerable too since Miami receiver DeVante Parker dominated Stephon Gilmore, arguably the NFL’s top corner, to help seal New England’s demise.

The Titans not only have their passing game clicking behind Ryan Tannehill, who has teamed with rookie A.J. Brown to terrorize defenses over the past few weeks, they also can lean on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who came back after taking a week off to rest a hamstring injury and ran for 211 yards and three scores in a dominant Week 17 win in Houston. The Texans didn’t play starters last week, but the Titans still answered the bell and come in looking sound on both sides of the ball in a must-win game. Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL in 6.1 yards per play (6.1). Tannehill led the league averaging 9.59 yards per pass attempt and led the Titans to a 30.4 scoring average in his starts.

Beyond the fact that Vrabel played 17 playoff games under Belichick’s watch, giving him great insight to what he’s up against here, he’s also won the only meeting against his mentor as a head coach. The Patriots had won seven straight matchups with Tennessee prior to a 34-10 rout in Nashville on Nov. 11, 2018. Brady threw for 254 yards but failed to throw for a touchdown, while Henry ran for two scores and combined with backup Dion Lewis, a former Patriot, to run for 115 yards. Davis, who had a quiet injury-plagued ’19 regular season, caught seven passes for 125 yards. He’s healthy again.

Top receiver Julian Edelman finished with nine catches for 104 yards in that loss but has been limited to just 10 receptions over the past three weeks and has appeared hampered by a sore knee. There are also physical limitations to worry about as far as Brady is concerned. Although he’s ignored questions about what looks to be pretty obvious elbow discomfort, Brady has been noticeably flapping his arm and jogging in place to stay loose on the sideline.

Midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu hasn’t had the impact the team expected and rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers are about to learn that playoff football ramps up the intensity to another level. New England scored over 30 points only once over its last nine games, though it did average 27.3 over its past three games.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards in his 20th season but threw for just one 300-yard game since mid-October. He threw for one or fewer touchdowns in half his games. Brady’s completion percentage (60.8%) was its lowest since ’13 and his passer rating ranked 27th in the regular season (88.0), its lowest since he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the ‘08 opener. I’d back the ‘under’ on a passing yards (257.5) prop featuring the legend.

Despite the fact most bettors are likely to tie their fortunes to Brady’s right arm for at least one last time in a home playoff game that might his last as a Patriot, oddsmakers didn’t even set the opening line at six or more points in the matchup against the No. 6 seed. The Westgate Superbook installed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite, but that figure was bet down to 4.5 points before climbing back up.

Tannehill is 0-6 in his career at Gillette Stadium, playing victim in New England’s dominance over the Dolphins, so it’s ironic that a Miami win made Foxborough the setting for his first career playoff start instead of Kansas City. While Patrick Mahomes is still feeling his way out through this playoff thing, the 42-year-old Brady will be making his 41st postseason start. Opposing Vrabel in his first playoff game as head coach is Belichick, who is 31-11 in his career (22-19-1 ATS).

Tennessee topped 400 yards six times this season for the first time since 1991. They finished with 5,805 yards of net offense, fourth-highest in team history. Most of New England’s injury-related question marks entering this game lie on the defensive end with CB Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, safety Terrance Brooks and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ja’Whuan Bentley all listed as ‘questionable.’ Edelman will also don that tag but should play. The Titans list WR Adam Humphries as out but will have tackle Adoree Jackson and tackle Jack Conklin in the mix. Backup WRs Kalif Raymond and Cody Hollister, as is safety Dane Cruikshank due to illness.

Road teams are 8-0 against the spread over the past two seasons on “Wild Card Weekend,” winning outright five times. Be aware that the forecast calls for a wet, windy night. Temperatures should reside in the 40s and scattered showers are expected throughout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB


Saturday, January 4

Tennessee adds 18-year old PG Vescovi from Uruguay today; he is expected to play about half the game. LSU won three of last four games with the Vols, but lost last two visits to Knoxville, by 16-23 points. Tigers lost two of last three games; they’re 0-2 in road games, losing by hoop at both VCU/USC. LSU is experience team #327 that is 8-4 vs schedule #169; they’re making 59.3% of their 2’s (#2). Tennessee lost three of its last four games after a 7-1 start; they’re experience team #180 that is 8-4 vs schedule #121- they have #20 eFG% defense.

Oklahoma State lost three of last four games with Texas Tech, losing last two visits to Lubbock, by 4-5 points. Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games. Tech won its last four games, is experience team #294 that is 9-3 vs schedule #298; Red Raiders lost three of four top 100 games, but the win is over Louisville; Tech forces turnovers 23% of time (#42). Oklahoma State lost three of its last five games after a 7-0 start; Cowboys are experience team #92 that is 9-3 vs schedule #51- they’re 4-3 in top 100 games, 2-0 in true road games (Charleston/Houston).

Home side won last six Maryland-Indiana games; Hoosiers lost their last three trips here, by 2-3-3 points. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Indiana is #281 experience team that is 11-2 vs schedule #160, losing by 20 at Wisconsin (only true road game), by 7 at home to Arkansas; they’re #2 team in country at getting to foul line, are top 20 rebounding team. Maryland lost two of last three games after a 10-0 start; they’re experience team #298 that is 11-2 vs schedule #48- Terrapins won six of eight top 100 games.

Louisville-Florida State split their last six meetings; teams split couple games in Yum! Center. Seminoles won their last five games; they’re experience team #275 that is 12-2 vs schedule #91, with losses at Pitt/Indiana- they have a road win at Florida. FSU is tallest team in country; they force turnovers 26.5% of time (#4). Louisville split its last four games after a 9-0 start; Cardinals are experience team #21 that is 11-2 vs schedule #163, losing last game to Kentucky in OT. Louisville has #5 eFG% defense without forcing TO’s; opponents shoot 41.2% inside arc (#10).

Villanova won four of its last five games with Marquette, but lost two of last three visits to Milwaukee, losing by point here LY. Villanova won its last six games, beating Kansas/Xavier in last two; they’re experience team #331 that is 10-2 vs schedule #55, losing their only true road game outside of Philly by 25 at Ohio State. Wildcats are shooting 35.5% on arc (#84), getting 36.5% of their points on arc (#60). Marquette won five of last six games, losing at Creighton by 17 last game; they’re experience team #53 that is 10-3 vs schedule #65.

Duke-Miami split their last ten meetings; Blue Devils won last two, by 8-30 points. Duke lost three of last five visits to South Beach. Duke won its last six games, winning first two ACC tilts, by 14-39 points; they’re experience team #338 that is 12-1 vs schedule #87, with only loss at home to SF Austin- they’ve got true road wins at Michigan St/Va Tech. Miami won its last five games, winning last game in OT at Clemson; Hurricanes are experience team #163 that is 9-3 vs schedule #42- they’re making 38.9% of their 3’s (#15).

Kansas won six of last seven games with West Virginia, beating WVU in last two Big X tourneys; Mountaineers are 0-7 in Lawrence in Big X play (2-4-1 ATS). West Virginia won its last four games, is experience team #296 that is 11-1 vs schedule #46; Mountaineers’ only loss was by hoop at St John’s. WVU beat Ohio State in its last game; they have #2 eFG% defense in country. Kansas won nine of last ten games; they’re experience team #232 that is 9-2 vs schedule #6, with losses to Duke/Villanova by total of 3 points. Kansas has #3 eFG% inn country.

Wichita State won its last six games, winning AAC opener Wednesday, now they venture into Power 5 territory. Shockers are experience team #335 that is 12-1 vs schedule #270, with only loss by 12 to West Virginia on a neutral floor, Wichita’s only loss in four top 100 games- they force turnovers 22.8% of time (#44). Ole Miss won its last four games, all vs stiffs; they’re experience team #261 that is 9-3 vs schedule #337, losing three of four top 100 games, with only win by hoop over Penn State. Rebels lost their only true road game, by 21 at Memphis.

Oregon won 12 of last 13 games with Utah, winning last four tips to SLC; they beat Utes in four of last five Pac-12 tourneys. Ducks won five of last six games but lost Pac-12 opener at Colorado Thursday; they’re experience team #197 that is 11-3 vs schedule #27, 4-3 vs top 100 teams. Oregon is making 40.1% of its 3’s (#8); they split two true road games, winning at Michigan i OT. Utah won six of its last seven games; they’re experience team #351 that is 10-3 vs schedule #132, winning five of six top 100 games, including a win over Kentucky.

Wofford beat NC-Greensboro three times LY, by 29-30-2 points, after losing previous five games in series; these teams met in last three SoCon tourneys. UNCG won eight of its last nine games, with only loss at buzzer to NC State; Spartans are experience team #145 that is 10-3 vs schedule #279, winning three of four true road games (lost by 12 at Kansas). Wofford lost SoCon opener by point at ETSU Wednesday; Terriers are experience team #71 that is 6-6 vs schedule #97, losing four of five top 100 games, but the one win was over North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

Baylor won seven of last eight games with Texas, winning last three series games played here, by 1-9-15 points. Longhorns won six of last seven games; they’re experience team #268 that is 10-2 vs schedule #250, with losses by 16-22 points to Georgetown/Providence- their best win was by 4 at Purdue. Texas forces turnovers 23% of time (#39). Baylor won its last nine games since its 67-64 loss to Washington in Alaska; Bears are experience team #126 that is 10-1 vs schedule #228- they’ve got three top 100 wins, are forcing turnovers 24% of time (#24).

Arizona hasn’t played in two weeks; they lost three of last four games, after a 9-0 start; Wildcats are experience team #291 that is 10-3 vs schedule #125, splitting six top 100 games. Wildcats got swept by Arizona State LY, after winning previous five series games; ASU lost eight of its last nine tips to Tempe, winning 72-64 here LY. Sun Devils lost two of last three games, are 9-4 vs schedule #90; they’re experience team #193 that lost four of six top 100 games, with best wins over Georgia/St John’s. ASU is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#40).

San Diego State lost its last two games with Utah State, after winning 11 in a row over the Aggies; Aztecs won three of last four trips to Logan, losing 70-54 here LY. SD State is experience team #72 that is 12-0 vs schedule #224, winning first three MW games, by 22-2-9 points; they’ve got true road wins, at BYU/Colorado State. Aztecs have #7 eFG% in country. Utah State is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 7-0 start; they lost by 17 at UNLV Wednesday. Aggies are experience team #136 that is 11-3 vs schedule #186, 2-3 vs top 100 teams (beat LSU/Florida).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

501MEMPHIS -502 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 40-75 ATS (-42.5 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1996.

503TORONTO -504 BROOKLYN
TORONTO is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less in the last 3 seasons.

505UTAH -506 ORLANDO
ORLANDO is 174-223 ATS (-71.3 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game since 1996.

509INDIANA -510 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

511BOSTON -512 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a loss by 6 points or less in the current season.

513DENVER -514 WASHINGTON
DENVER is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 120 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

515CHARLOTTE -516 DALLAS
DALLAS are 14-2 ATS (11.8 Units) after playing a home game in the current season.

517SAN ANTONIO -518 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game in the current season.

519DETROIT -520 GOLDEN STATE
DETROIT is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

521NEW ORLEANS -522 SACRAMENTO
NEW ORLEANS are 77-46 ATS (26.4 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 4

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MEMPHIS (13 - 22) at LA CLIPPERS (25 - 11) - 1/4/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (23 - 12) at BROOKLYN (16 - 17) - 1/4/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (22 - 12) at ORLANDO (15 - 19) - 1/4/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (19 - 15) at CLEVELAND (10 - 24) - 1/4/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 92-122 ATS (-42.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 54-73 ATS (-26.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (22 - 13) at ATLANTA (7 - 27) - 1/4/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (23 - 8) at CHICAGO (13 - 22) - 1/4/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (24 - 10) at WASHINGTON (10 - 23) - 1/4/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (14 - 23) at DALLAS (22 - 12) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 55-87 ATS (-40.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 193-244 ATS (-75.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 66-48 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (14 - 19) at MILWAUKEE (31 - 5) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 78-52 ATS (+20.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 68-47 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 59-41 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 368-307 ATS (+30.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 226-163 ATS (+46.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 289-344 ATS (-89.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 79-124 ATS (-57.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (12 - 23) at GOLDEN STATE (9 - 27) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 23) at SACRAMENTO (13 - 22) - 1/4/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 4

Grizzlies-Clippers
Memphis lost five of its last eight games; they’e 4-1-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog. Five of their last six games went over. Clippers won thee of their last four games; they’re 5-2 ATS in last seven home games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Grizzlies lost six of last seven games with the Clippers (2-5 ATS); they’re 1-3 ATS in last four series games played here. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Raptors-Nets
Toronto lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-5-1 ATS in last nine road games. Four of their last five road games went under. Brooklyn lost its last four games; they’re 4-6 ATS as a home favorite. Four of their last six games went over.

Raptors won nine of its last ten games with the Nets; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Brooklyn. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Jazz-Magic
Utah won nine of its last ten games; they’re 6-4 ATS as a road favorite. Over is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Orlando won four of its last six games; they’re 2-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Jazz won six of last seven games with Orlando; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Magic Kingdom. Three of last four series games went under.

Thunder–Cavaliers
Oklahoma City won eight of its last nine games; they covered seven of last eight road games. OKC’s last five games went under the total. Cleveland lost three of its last four games; they covered four of last five home games. Under is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Thunder won four of last five games wth the Cavaliers; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Cleveland. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Pacers-Hawks
Indiana lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-4 ATS n last six road games. Pacers’ last five games all went over. Atlanta lost 11 of its last 12 games; they’re 8-6 ATS as a home underdog. Hawks’ last four games stayed under the total.

Pacers won their last seven games with the Hawks; they covered four of their last five visits to Indiana. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Celtics-Bulls
Boston won seven of its last eight games; they’re 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. Celtics’ last three games went under. Chicago lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-6 ATS as a home underdog. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Celtics won/covered eight of last ten games with the Bulls; they’re 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Chicago. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Nuggets-Wizards
Denver won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re 4-5-1 ATS as a road favorite. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Washington lost four of its last five games; they’re 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Road team won five of last six Denver-Washington games; Nuggets are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Washington. Last five series games went under.

Hornets-Mavericks
Charlotte lost six of its last seven games; they’re 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games went over. Dallas split its last 12 games; they’re 1-3 ATS in last four games as a home favorite. Over is 6-4-1 in their last 11 home games.

Hornets lost three of last four games with the Mavericks; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Dallas. Under is 7-3 in last seven series games.

Spurs-Bucks
San Antonio split its last ten games; they’re 3-5 ATS as a road underdog. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Milwaukee won 25 of its last 27 games; they’re 8-3 ATS in last 11 home games. Bucks’ last four games went under.

Spurs lost four of last five games with the Bucks; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last five series games went over.

Pistons-Warriors
Detroit lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 0-4 ATS in last four road games. Five of their last six games went over. Golden State lost its last three games; they won/covered four of their last five home games. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.

Pistons lost seven of last ten games with Golden State; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Bay Area. Four of last six series games went over.

Pelicans-Kings
New Orleans won five of its last seven games; they covered five of their last six road games. Under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Sacramento lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 1-7 ATS in last eight home games. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Pelicans won four of last five games with the Kings; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Sacramento. Seven of last eight series games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 4

Trend Report

Memphis @ LA Clippers
Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Memphis
LA Clippers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

Toronto @ Brooklyn
Toronto
Toronto is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Brooklyn
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Utah @ Orlando
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games at home

Oklahoma City @ Cleveland
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Indiana @ Atlanta
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Denver @ Washington
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

Boston @ Chicago
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing Boston

San Antonio @ Milwaukee
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Milwaukee is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games

Detroit @ Golden State
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Golden State
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games at home

Charlotte @ Dallas
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Charlotte's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Charlotte

New Orleans @ Sacramento
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Sacramento
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


BUDDING AT THE RIGHT TIME

The last time the Maple Leafs played the New York Islanders, they were in the middle of what would be a season-high six-game losing streak and were coached by Mike Babcock. Well, Babcock is out and the Leafs have gone 14-5 SU since the end of that losing streak and lead the league in scoring, putting up 4.06 goals per game.

The Buds have put up five or more goals in five of their last eight games and lead the league in scoring chances for and high-danger shooting percentage since mid-December. The Leafs could especially do some damage with the man advantage.

Under new coach Sheldon Keefe, Toronto has the best scoring powerplay at 36.8 percent while the Islanders sit in the middle of the league in penalty killing at 79 percent. We are taking the Leafs -1.5 as the Islanders have lost by more than a goal in six of their last eight defeats.


GOALS GALORE VS. RAGS

Saturday night pits the West’s best over the last five games against the team with the highest expected goals against since mid-December. The Rangers will continue their West Coast road trip — three games in five nights — as they take on the surging Canucks in Vancouver on Saturday night.

The Rangers have given up five goals or more in three of their last six thanks to giving up the second-most scoring chances since December 20. No team has given up more goals per game over its last 10 games (4.10) as only two other teams have a worse save percentage over that stretch.

With Vancouver averaging four goals a game since December 20, Saturday night’s game gives bettors a great opportunity to bet with a hot team versus one of the league’s most struggling. We are taking the Cancucks’ team total of 3.5 and smashing the Over.


FINISHING UP THE WEEKEND

After the final game of NFL Wild-Card weekend on Sunday, the sports action doesn’t stop as the Nashville Predators will play the second game of a back-to-back in California and take on the Anaheim Ducks at 10 p.m. ET. The Preds could be without their No. 2 scorer and second-most used player in defenseman Ryan Ellis who was knocked out of Wednesday’s Winter Classic by an elbow to the head.

Nashville has been weak defensively since returning from the break having allowed 15 goals in three games and having allowed five powerplay goals in eight chances since Boxing day. Not having Ellis is a huge loss as the blueliner was playing on the first penalty-kill unit.

The home team has won the last six matchups and Ducks goalie John Gibson has a 2.52 goals against at home compared to a 3.52 GAA on the road. We are backing the home team in what should be decent odds for the West’s No. 14 team. Take the Ducks ML.


GOALIE PROFILE: JONATHAN BERNIER, DETROIT RED WINGS

There aren’t a lot of nice things to say about the Detroit Red Wings this year as they sit in the league’s basement with 23 points in 41 games, but since coming back from the break, the Wings are 3-0 ATS thanks to two strong games from goalie Jonathan Bernier.

Bernier is 3-2 in his last five starts and is coming off a 2-0 shutout of the Sharks on Tuesday. The Wings’ goalie will face the league’s 9th lowest-scoring team in the Dallas Stars on Friday and should be big underdogs as Detroit has just one win in its last seven road games.

Look to take the Under 5.5 as Bernier is 0-3 O/U in his last three road games and Dallas is 2-7 O/U in its last seven games at home. The Wings at +1.5 is also paying +100.


INJURY UPDATE: F JEFF SKINNER, BUFFALO SABRES

Since forward Jeff Skinner hit the I.R three games ago, the Buffalo Sabres are 1-2 SU and will finish a three-game homestand versus the Florida Panthers on Saturday afternoon. Without their fourth-best goal scorer and second-line forward, the Sabres have put up just nine goals in their last four games.

The scoring struggles have also spread to the team’s powerplay as it is 0-for-11 since Christmas. Buffalo will look to get back to its average of 3.10 goals per game against Florida on Saturday afternoon. We like fading teams who are squeezing the stick too tight and will look to take the Under on Buffalo’s team total of 2.5.
The best teams to bet on this decade: Against the spread, money teams and Over/Under bets


HAT TRICK TRENDS

• Favorites have covered the Puck Line at just 29 percent since the break going 13-32. Home favorites have done slightly better than road favorites ATS as the less traveled teams went 9-20 (31%) ATS while road favs went 4-12 (25%) since Christmas.
• The Washington Capitals have the best out-of-conference record in the NHL. The Eastern Conference Capitals are 11-2-4 versus the West and will face the San Jose Sharks on Sunday who Washington has scored at least five times in all three of its last matchups.
• Empty-net goals are a big part of hitting Puck Lines. Losing a plus-money bet because a team can’t put it in the empty cage is heartbreaking. Over the course of the season, the Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues and Pittsburgh Penguins all have at least 10 empty-net goals. Conversely, the Edmonton Oilers (2) and Tampa Bay Lightning (3) are at the bottom of the league in this category.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1SAN JOSE -2 COLUMBUS
SAN JOSE is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

3EDMONTON -4 BOSTON
BOSTON is 39-41 ATS (-18.4 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances over the last 2 seasons.

5WINNIPEG -6 MINNESOTA
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (11.3 Units) in road games against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

7ST LOUIS -8 VEGAS
ST LOUIS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) when playing their 4th game in 7 days in the current season.

9COLORADO -10 NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 1-10 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

11TAMPA BAY -12 OTTAWA
OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in home games when playing their 4th game in 7 days in the current season.

13FLORIDA -14 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games in the current season.

15NY ISLANDERS -16 TORONTO
NY ISLANDERS are 18-3 ATS (17 Units) against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game in the current season.

17PITTSBURGH -18 MONTREAL
PITTSBURGH is 12-20 ATS (-18.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

19PHILADELPHIA -20 ARIZONA
PHILADELPHIA is 21-14 ATS (11.9 Units) in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the 2nd half of the year in the last 3 seasons.

21NY RANGERS -22 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 31-25 ATS (17 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances over the last 2 seasons.

23NASHVILLE -24 LOS ANGELES
NASHVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 4

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SAN JOSE (18-21-0-3, 39 pts.) at COLUMBUS (19-14-0-8, 46 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 74-70 ATS (-19.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 4-12 ATS (+16.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
SAN JOSE is 20-29 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 3-1 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 3-1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.9 Units)

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EDMONTON (21-17-0-5, 47 pts.) at BOSTON (24-7-0-11, 59 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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WINNIPEG (22-16-0-3, 47 pts.) at MINNESOTA (19-17-0-5, 43 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 10-3 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-1 ATS (+7.3 Units) on Saturday games this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
WINNIPEG is 14-4 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-12 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS (-22.7 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-40 ATS (+63.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 9-7 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 9-7-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.3 Units)

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ST LOUIS (26-10-0-6, 58 pts.) at VEGAS (23-15-0-6, 52 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 87-63 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 46-26 ATS (+11.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 53-32 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 28-14 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 69-64 ATS (+1.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 4-10 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-2 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 5-2-0 straight up against VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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COLORADO (24-13-0-4, 52 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (15-19-0-6, 36 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 12-5 ATS (+17.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
COLORADO is 6-1 ATS (+7.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 4-12 ATS (+18.0 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-2 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 3-2-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.8 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (22-13-0-4, 48 pts.) at OTTAWA (16-20-0-5, 37 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-8 ATS (-10.4 Units) on Saturday games this season.
OTTAWA is 28-27 ATS (+69.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 11-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 10-8 ATS (+22.9 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-2 ATS (+11.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-5 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-6 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.4 Units)

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FLORIDA (21-14-0-5, 47 pts.) at BUFFALO (18-17-0-7, 43 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 305-291 ATS (+638.9 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
FLORIDA is 126-136 ATS (+298.4 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1996.
BUFFALO is 13-30 ATS (+57.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 7-3 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 7-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (25-11-0-3, 53 pts.) at TORONTO (23-14-0-5, 51 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 25-14 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 22-10 ATS (+11.3 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 30-16 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 99-109 ATS (+244.7 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
NY ISLANDERS are 10-4 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 32-28 ATS (-9.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-10 ATS (-13.3 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 24-27 ATS (-18.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 102-111 ATS (-52.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 160-159 ATS (-88.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (24-11-0-5, 53 pts.) at MONTREAL (18-17-0-6, 42 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 25-32 ATS (-21.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MONTREAL is 7-12 ATS (-6.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-4 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-3-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (22-14-0-5, 49 pts.) at ARIZONA (23-16-0-4, 50 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 29-28 ATS (+58.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-10 ATS (-9.4 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

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NY RANGERS (19-17-0-4, 42 pts.) at VANCOUVER (22-15-0-4, 48 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 15-10 ATS (+29.0 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 138-138 ATS (+300.6 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 253-258 ATS (-154.6 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 406-391 ATS (-104.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.9 Units)

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NASHVILLE (18-15-0-6, 42 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (17-21-0-4, 38 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 18-21 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 4-9 ATS (-9.7 Units) on Saturday games this season.
NASHVILLE is 48-93 ATS (+150.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 18-22 ATS (-16.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-12 ATS (-14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NASHVILLE is 296-235 ATS (+25.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 172-179 ATS (-20.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 69-81 ATS (-47.5 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 216-274 ATS (-99.4 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 114-120 ATS (-64.1 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 132-141 ATS (-74.1 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 6-1 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 6-1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, January 4

Trend Report

Edmonton @ Boston
Edmonton
Edmonton is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Edmonton

San Jose @ Columbus
San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games on the road
Columbus
Columbus is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing San Jose

Florida @ Buffalo
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Winnipeg @ Minnesota
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

St. Louis @ Vegas
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vegas
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games

Pittsburgh @ Montreal
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home

Colorado @ New Jersey
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Ottawa
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games at home

NY Islanders @ Toronto
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Islanders's last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing at home against NY Islanders

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

NY Rangers @ Vancouver
NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Rangers's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 6 games on the road
Vancouver
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Nashville @ Los Angeles
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nashville's last 8 games
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Southern Miss +7 -106 at BMaker

Southern Miss +7
On Saturday January 4th we get the old "Battle of the Bell" matchup once again as the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 7-5 (6-6 ATS) take on the Tulane Green Wave 6-6 (8-4 ATS) in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl. The Green Wave are -7 point favorites and the over/under has settled in at 56.5. This one kicks off at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth at 11:30 a.m. ET.
It wasn't a banner year for the Green Wave. They were hoping to challenge for the AAC title after a strong start to the 2019 schedule, but that just didn't materialize in 2019. They averaged 33PPG at the beginning of the season but the offense struggled down the stretch and they only managed 24PPG. Last game out Tulane lost 37-20 to SMU.
As for the Golden Eagles they did a great job on defense in 2019 limiting teams to 17PPG or less. They do especially well vs. the run. (Which we know Tulane will focus on, as its the best part of their offense. (11th in the nation) The Eagles are 14th in the country in run defense (111YPG). In their last game out the Eagles lost 34-17 to FAU.
My money is on the fact that this will be a closely contested game. These two teams are going to slow down the pace, run the ball and trade punches. That favors the Golden Eagles keeping the score close in my opinion.
Some trends to consider. Tulane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Southern Miss, are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Southern Miss, and are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games this season. Head to head the Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head to head.
I'm not sure why Tulane is a -7 point favorite in this one after dropping 5 of their last 6 matchups straight up. Tulane has dropped six consecutive meetings with Southern Miss and 9 of their last 10. Wrong team is favored here.
Take Southern Miss.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* FREE NCAAF ATS Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Tulane -7 -110 at Mirage

1* on Tulane -7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Tulane -7 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Tulane -7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Jan 04 '20, 2:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Villanova vs Marquette
Play on: Marquette -1 -108 at pinnacle

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Marquette -1)
I'll take my chances here with Marquette at home against No. 10 Villanova. The fact that the Golden Eagles are favored in this game really says it all. Not only are the Wildcats a Top 10 team, but Marquette just got annihilated at Creighton 92-75 in their last game. The betting public won't be able to resist themselves when it comes to backing Villanova as a dog.
Thing is, the Wildcats have not looked good in their two true road games this season. They got absolutely destroyed in an early game at Ohio State by a score of 76-51. They then had to hold on for a 78-66 win at St. Joseph's who is currently 3-10 on the season.
Marquette is going to lay some eggs on the road and they have a history under Wojciechowski of losing bad when they do lose. I expect a different looking team here at home, where the Golden Eagles are 7-0 this season. Marquette runs a ton of pick and roll offense with stark Markus Howard and Villanova is a mere 339th in pick and roll defense.
Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Golden Eagles -1!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Jan 04 '20, 4:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Blues vs Golden Knights
Play on: Golden Knights -135 at Bovada

Free Pick on Golden Knights

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns Jan 04 '20, 5:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Oregon vs Utah
Play on: Oregon -4½ -112 at betonline

I successfully played against the Ducks on Thursday. Here's an excerpt from that play:
"... The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road. Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after ...."
Sure enough, the Ducks got hammered at Colorado. However, as you'll see by the writeup, I acknowledged that they are indeed a very good team. Utah isn't quite as tough a team/venue as Colorado, in my opinion. At least not for the Ducks, as they've had a lot more success here over the years. Angry after the loss at Boulder, I expect Oregon to bounce back with a big effort here. Consider laying the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan Jan 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 8h
NCAA-B | UCLA vs Washington State
Play on: UCLA PK -109 at GTBets

UCLA vs Washington State
7:00 PM EST, January 4, 2020
5-Star Best Bet on the UCLA Bruins
After losing three consecutive games the Bruins bounced back with a huge 66-64 road win at the Washington Huskies and covered the spread as 8.5-point underdogs. They will be carrying that positive momentum into this game against the WSU Cougars, who are coming off a disappointing 65-56 home defeat at the hands of the USC Trojans and failed to cover the spread by as 3.5-point underdogs.
WSU shot just 28% form the field in their loss to USC and will not fid the scoring any easier against UCLA.
A Few Slam Dunks· The Cougars are just 2-13 ATS in games played in January over the last two seasons.
· The Cougars are just 5-14 ATS when facing a conference opponent in games played over the last two seasons.
· The Cougars are 1-8 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers in games played over the last two seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Jan 04 '20, 7:08 PM in 8h
NHL | Lightning vs Senators
Play on: Senators +195 at pinnacle

1* Free Sharp Play on Senators +195

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Computer Gambler Jan 04 '20, 8:15 PM in 9h
NFL | Titans vs Patriots
Play on: Titans +5½ -110 at Mirage

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: 3rd down % defense system: Play on teams allowing a significantly less 3rd down completion percentage than what their opponents that they've faced(season to date averages) are allowing: These teams are 131-74-12 ATS 63.9% in database history. (20200104, 'Texans'), (20200104, 'Titans')
BONUS SYSTEM: Since 1989, teams off of 3 or more straight games with zero turnovers are 73-35-4 67.6% ATS. -- Active on the Saints this week
The Titans are 0-21 ATS (-11.17 ppg) when they are off a win and they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game.The Vikings are 13-0 ATS (+11.27 ppg) as a dog when their opponent is off two double-digit wins and they are not off a double-digit win.The Bills are 11-30 OU (-4.74 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 as a road dog.The Titans are 9-1 OU (8.55 ppg) since Oct 20, 2019.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Jan 04 '20, 8:35 PM in 10h
NBA | Pistons vs Warriors
Play on: Warriors +3½ -110 at YouWager

1* NBA Free Pick on Golden State Warriors +3½
I really like the spot and the value with Golden State as a small home dog against the Pistons. While the Warriors have lost 3 straight after rolling together a 4-game winning streak, the last two came on the road.
Warriors are 4-1 in their last 5 at home with the only loss coming to a really good Mavs team. Detroit should not be favored here. Pistons are down Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Blake Griffin and Markieff Morris.
They are also playing their 4th straight game on the road and have lost each of first 3 on their 6-game trip by 14 or more. Not to mention this is the first game of a back-to-back set with a much bigger game on deck Sunday against the Lakers.
Detroit is 5-16-1 ATS last 22 road games, 1-8 ATS last 9 games overall and 0-6 ATS last 6 when playing on just 1 day of rest. Warriors are 4-1 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take Golden State!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones Jan 04 '20, 8:35 PM in 10h
NBA | Spurs vs Bucks
Play on: Spurs +12 -104 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: San Antonio Spurs +12
The San Antonio Spurs have been awesome following a loss here of late. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. I think there’s great value with the Spurs catching 12 points from the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
The Bucks struggled to put away the Timberwolves in a fortunate 106-104 win as 18-point home favorites last time out. It’s a Bucks team that is now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Oddsmakers are forced to set their numbers higher than they should be knowing that the betting public is going to back them blindly.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - I in non-conference games, a well-rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Spurs Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti Jan 04 '20, 10:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-B | San Diego State vs Utah State
Play on: San Diego State +2½ -104 at pinnacle

** Featured Free Play **
The NCAAB Comp play is on San Diego St +2 at 10:35 eastern. The Aztecs are undefeated this season have have tournament knockout revenge on a Utah St team they have beaten 11 of 13. The Aztecs are 12-1 after allowing 60 or less in 3 straight games and 6-0 vs winning teams, as well as having a top 10 defense. Utah St is 1-5 when the total is 130-140 and has failed to cover 5 of 6 if they won 3 of the last 4 as well as going 1-3 vs teams that allow less than 64 points per game. Take the points with SD.ST. RV- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Jan 04 '20, 10:08 PM in 11h
NHL | Rangers vs Canucks
Play on: Rangers +140 at sportsbook

1* Free Play on Rangers +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park



Santa Anita Park - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta /$2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 3-4-5) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super High 5



Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 12:30


FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. MIKE OPERATOR is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MIKE OPERATOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER FURY: Horse has a TrackMast er "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROYAL RANGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace.



3

MIKE OPERATOR

9/5


7/2




5

SILVER FURY

3/1


9/2




2

ROYAL RANGER

2/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

MY JOURNEY

4


7/2

Front-runner

77


62


102.4


58.8


49.8




2

ROYAL RANGER

2


2/1

Front-runner

84


75


60.7


71.1


65.6




3

MIKE OPERATOR

3


9/5

Stalker

83


75


77.6


76.2


71.7




5

SILVER FURY

5


3/1

Trailer

88


78


71.1


75.0


73.0




8

WILD CAT CANYON

8


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

75


58


66.2


53.4


43.4




7

CREEDS REVENGE

7


50/1

Alternator/Non-contender

46


45


54.8


29.8


15.3




6

J C'S HENRIETTA

6


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


26.5


41.7


30.2




1

STRONG RULER

1


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


22.8


40.8


28.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne



Hawthorne - Race 6

$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / $1 Daily Double



SO $13,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 3:25P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $13,500. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. HEY HEY is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * IMA LITTLE KITTEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOKEN VOW: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. JE SUIS BELLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. COUNTRY ASSETS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's th ird or fourth start after a layoff. DONTOUCHTHATDIAL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.



3

IMA LITTLE KITTEN

5/1


5/1




6

TOKEN VOW

2/1


7/1




7

JE SUIS BELLE

10/1


8/1




4

COUNTRY ASSETS

6/1


8/1




9

DONTOUCHTHATDIAL

9/2


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

JE SUIS BELLE

7


10/1

Front-runner

83


74


95.8


65.0


55.0




1

LADY EXPRESS

1


15/1

Front-runner

79


75


78.4


61.6


50.1




5

HEY HEY

5


12/1

Stalker

76


63


75.6


59.4


44.4




9

DONTOUCHTHATDIAL

9


9/2

Trailer

66


76


52.1


69.6


60.6




2

CHAINMAIL

2


10/1

Trailer

80


64


50.2


55.0


40.5




4

COUNTRY ASSETS

4


6/1

Trailer

86


70


49.0


70.6


62.1




3

IMA LITTLE KITTEN

3


5/1

Trailer

88


78


46.6


76.8


70.8




6

TOKEN VOW

6


2/1

Trailer

82


74


33.4


73.6


65.1




8

BONITA SPRINGS

8


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

83


75


51.4


66.3


61.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $5300 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 ECE MATEO 20/1




# 4 LRH FAST AS OAK 4/1




# 8 EYESA ZOOMIN FOR BUX 3/1




ECE MATEO is the strongest bet in this race especially at 20/1. Should be given a chance based on the decent speed figure recorded in the last affair. This animal could surprise this bunch at a solid price. Will make a good showing versus this lot. LRH FAST AS OAK - Must be considered based on the very good speed figure recorded in the last contest. Is a solid contender based on numbers put up lately under today's conditions. EYESA ZOOMIN FOR BUX - Has decent Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Could beat this field given the 73 speed figure recorded in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fair Grounds - Race #10 - Post: 4:51pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 JACOBS FLYER (ML=3/1)
#5 OHMYMY OHMYYES (ML=6/1)


JACOBS FLYER - After a pair of sprints, he's routing today, which is probably what this gelding wants to do. OHMYMY OHMYYES - Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't finish in the money, but made a nice move down the stretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. Past Performances show this pony with three improving speed figures. Murrill should be on a live one in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MISS YOU JO (ML=5/2), #1 MY CLASSIC BOWTIE (ML=5/1), #3 B RASEN (ML=6/1),

MISS YOU JO - You always figure that this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he falters most every time. MY CLASSIC BOWTIE - Finished sixth last time out. Would have to perk up to land in the top three today. Garnered a substandard speed fig last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on Dec 13th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. B RASEN - Didn't finish in the money on November 23rd at Delta Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. When checking today's class rating, he will have to record a much better speed figure than in the last race to compete in this dirt route.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 JACOBS FLYER is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29600 Class Rating: 62

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 SKYTOWN CAT 2/1




# 2 REALLY RED 20/1




# 4 MACADOOOO KID 3/1




I give my vote to SKYTOWN CAT here. This gelding is a key contender based on his earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Could beat this field given the 61 speed rating posted in his last outing. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a key contender. REALLY RED - This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the front end recently. MACADOOOO KID - Trainer boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. With a strong 54 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:01pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#10 LION AND THE WOLF (ML=4/1)
#9 SWEET BLAME (ML=3/1)


LION AND THE WOLF - The Dec 14th affair at Parx Racing was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the class scale a significant amount, so she should be in a good spot. Entered a Starter Allowance race at Parx Racing last race out and raced in the slop finishing ninth. Will do better in today's race. SWEET BLAME - With a big class drop in class figure points from her December 17th race at Parx Racing. Based on that information, I will give this one the advantage. Ran a lackluster race at Parx Racing last time around the track. Racing on a fast track puts this filly at the top of my contenders roll call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BUCKS SOME (ML=9/5), #4 GLOWING STAR (ML=6/1),

BUCKS SOME - Hasn't been winning of late when made the favorite. Take a look at her record. Last effort was too good. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'bounce' this time. GLOWING STAR - On a downward spiraling sequence. Speed figs keep declining.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#10 LION AND THE WOLF is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [9,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs



01/04/20, TAM, Race 8, 4.15 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 STARTER HANDICAP. Purse $19,000.
FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN 2019-20
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Super High 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
9
Crown of Joy
6-1
Gallardo A A
O'Connell Kathleen
JFC


099.3796
2
Antalya
4-1
Camacho S
Granitz Anthony J.




098.0050
3
Lady Alida
8/5
Quinonez A
Lichoa Alfredo
SL


097.8498
6
Colonels Daughter
5-1
Centeno D
Avila Juan Carlos




097.3322
1
Native Lion
8-1
Hernandez H
Granitz Anthony J.
E


095.9271
5
Luna
10-1
Suarez A
Hendry Stacy Lane




094.6178
4
Secret Temple
15-1
Ferrer J C
Sienkewicz William M.
T


094.0942
8
Dirt Road Princess
20-1
Fadlovich M
Cuttino Marion L.




091.3498
7
Alluring Approval
20-1
Parish R
March William E.
W


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to TAM.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


9
94.60
81.60
1.48
34.69
34
98
Last Race Purse Lower Than Today


2
90.80
81.60
1.39
35.34
41
116
Last Race Is Same Track As Today


3
85.80
81.60
1.35
35.25
43
122
Last Race Weight Is Not Equal To Today


6
81.60
81.60
1.43
32.98
31
94
Race Age 4Up


1
85.80
81.60
1.35
35.25
43
122
Last Race Weight Is Not Equal To Today


5
90.80
81.60
1.39
35.34
41
116
Last Race Is Same Track As Today


4
94.60
81.60
1.48
34.69
34
98
Last Race Purse Lower Than Today


8
94.60
81.60
1.48
34.69
34
98
Last Race Purse Lower Than Today


7
85.80
81.60
1.35
35.25
43
122
Last Race Weight Is Not Equal To Today


Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fm/hd" - ROI 1.16, Win% 42.55
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
2
Antalya
4-1
Camacho S
Granitz Anthony J.




097.4944
3
Lady Alida
8/5
Quinonez A
Lichoa Alfredo
SL


097.1895
6
Colonels Daughter
5-1
Centeno D
Avila Juan Carlos




097.0721
9
Crown of Joy
6-1
Gallardo A A
O'Connell Kathleen
JFC


096.5689
5
Luna
10-1
Suarez A
Hendry Stacy Lane




096.5526
1
Native Lion
8-1
Hernandez H
Granitz Anthony J.
E


095.8907
7
Alluring Approval
20-1
Parish R
March William E.
W


094.4873
4
Secret Temple
15-1
Ferrer J C
Sienkewicz William M.
T


093.8265
8
Dirt Road Princess
20-1
Fadlovich M
Cuttino Marion L.




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to TAM.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


2
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


3
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


6
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


9
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


5
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


1
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


7
56.40
24.00
1.17
35.15
58
165
Best Workouts


4
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


8
54.00
24.00
1.12
37.50
84
224
Race Age Not 3Up


Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 1.00, Win% 37.78

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct



01/04/20, AQU, Race 7, 3.25 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $67,000.
Claiming Price $40,000 (1. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
2
Joe's Smokin Gun
3-1
Gutierrez R
Rice Linda
SF


098.2415
1
Storm Prophet
6/5
Cancel E
Rodriguez Rudy R.




097.6018
1A
Vincento
6/5
Franco M
Rodriguez Rudy R.
C


097.0866
5
Danebury
7/2
Carmouche K
Baker Charlton




097.0579
4
Singapore Trader
8-1
Lezcano J
Pletcher Todd A.
JW


096.8368
3
Control Group
9/2
Vargas. Jr. J A
Servis Jason
TE


094.0010
6
Foolish Ghost
15-1
Carroll D
Morley Thomas
L


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to AQU.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


2
22.70
11.80
1.06
42.61
75
176
Best Speed


1
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


1A
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


5
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


4
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


3
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


6
9.80
12.20
1.03
37.50
54
144
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance is 1m


Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 0.92, Win% 37.56
* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Notre Dame +3½ Over Syracuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, January 4, 2020


1/04 01:00 PM PT / 4:00 PM ET

CB (667) WILLIAM & MARY VS (668) NORTHEASTERN

Take: (668) NORTHEASTERN

Reason: Your free play for Saturday, January 4, 2020 is in the college basketball contest between William & Mary and Northeaster. Jim's Free play Saturday, Jan 4 is on 668. Northeastern -6 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURAY: WYOMING (CBB) +14 over Colorado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Saturday's Free Selection: Auburn/Mississippi State over 138 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins Roz's SATURDAY, JANUARY 4, 2020 Free Pick

CBK
1/04 03:00 PM CB (727) GEORGIA TECH VS (728) NORTH CAROLINA
Take : Georgia Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports
Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Syracuse - 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Saturday's Free Selection: Auburn Tigers - 1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the West Virginia Mountaineers +9½ over Kansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play Saturday, January 4, 2020



CBK
1/04 05:00 PM CB (749) BRADLEY VS (750) NORTHERN IOWA
Take : Northern Iowa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Selection Is

NORTH CAROLINA STATE -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Saturday : SAN ANTONIO +11½ over Milwaukee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Saturday

St Marys -9 College BB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Saturday's Free Pick: Nevada Wolfpack - 4 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Oklahoma State +5' College BB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

Free Play SAT Oregon CBB --5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Late Saturday's Free Play: Evansville - 1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teyas Sports FREE PICK 1/4 CBB TEXAS TECH -5 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Saturday: HOUSTON (CBB) -10½ over Central Florida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Early Saturday: South Florida Bulls + 3 1/2

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Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Saturday: SA/Milw UNDER 228½

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John Anthony Sports

SATURDAY Free Selection:

MIL Bucks

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Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday is on the

UT JAZZ

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Hollywood Anthony

Your Saturday Free Play from Hollywood Anthony

GS Warriors

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1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Raptors +1.5
2. Gameday Network NBA – Pacers -7
3. VegasSI.com CBB – The Citadel +6
4. Vegas Line Crushers CBB – Providence +2.5
5. Sports Action 365 CBB – Wake Forest over 134.5
6. Point Spread Report NBA – Pelicans under 226
7. Lou Panelli NBA – Thunder -6.5
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino CBB – Clemson +1
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club NBA – Wizards +11.5
10. William E. Stockton CBB – Tennessee -1.5
11. Vincent Pioli CBB – Akron -3.5
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NBA – Jazz -4.5
13. SCORE NBA – Celtics +1
14. East Coast Line Movers CBB – Creighton +5
15. Tony Campone CBB – Texas Tech -5.5
16. Chicago Sports Group NBA – Warriors over 213
17. Hollywood Sportsline CBB – Wyoming +14
18. VIP Action CBB – Cal Irvine +6
19. South Beach Sports CBB – Marshall under 145.5
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission NBA – Grizzlies +10.5
21. NY Players Club NBA – Celtics over 209.5
22. Fred Callahan CBB – Louisville -6.5
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club CBB – UT Arlington pk
24. Michigan Sports CBB – Ohio -1.5
25. National Consensus Report NBA – Spurs +12

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Team Underground (https://undergroundsportsconnection.com)
NFL
TENNESSEE TITANS +5.5

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Top Shelf Sports Pick (http://www.vegasinvestmentpicks.com/)
NFL
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑220

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GreenTreeSports (https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/GreenTreeSports)
NBA
DALLAS MAVERICKS ‑11.5

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Tommy King Wins (http://www.tkwins.com/)
NFL
BUFFALO BILLS +3

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FURBOOKIE (http://pickmonitor.com/user/furbookie)
NFL
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ‑4.5