Service Plays Monday 3/16/20

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis March 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 10-race card scheduled to start the week. The Early 0.20 Pick 5 kicks-off the card. That sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

7-Tymal Riggs (9/2)-Makes 3rd lifetime start and has been racing from the back. But it might be time to be used more aggressively from the start and a short field doesn't hurt chances.
8-Victor Invictus (5/2)-Could leave to get a good seat because there isn't a lot of gate speed that has shown up so far in this field. Has the ability to pass foes, so may duck and then pull to roll by down the lane.

Race 2

6-Miss Rockadali (7/2)-Has finished 2nd in last 3 starts and each time was used hard off the gate. In a spot now to get the top or the 2-hole behind #7 without much strain and that could lead to a picture.
7 Lucky Player (9/5)-Makes 1st start for new barn after snagging a sharp win from the 9-hole against 6 from this field. Looks like a major player again.

Race 3

5-Morraly Flexible (6-1)-Just missed in last after grabbing the lead early in the mile. That was a different tactic that almost worked and will use right back.
10-Major Muscle (5-1)-Best to respect even from this post because this could be the field to capture an overdue win as long as McClure provides a sharp steer.

Race 4

1-Traveller (5-1)-Muscle Mass colt comes off a good qualifier and could win right out of the box in a field without a standout.
3-Gamblin Road (9/5)-Makes 2nd start of the year and raced well in the back half on 3-6. Looks like Henry can put in play early in the mile and be in striking distance at the top of the lane.
7-Tymal Tarot (8-1)-Didn't accomplish much as a freshman but comes off 2 qualifiers and the last was a sharp effort. Trainer hands the lines to McClure and at 8-1 in the ML is well worth a swing.

Race 5

1-Osborne Seelster (5-1)-1 for the last 39 is a reason to avoid but not being all in on the ML chalk leads me to include from the rail. Should be sitting close to the lead and could use one big move down the lane.
3-Phill The Thrill (6-1)-There is no doubt Phil likes to roll late and he is a threat but is trip dependent. Has the speed to win at a square price.
4-Dovuto Hanover (12-1)-Makes 1st start since 12-15 and has done well here in the past. Taking a swing at this price and the connections can fire hot off the bench. Did race the back half in 55.4 in 3-12 qualifier.
9-White Hair Rocks (5/2)-My thinking is McNair leaves and could get the top without using up a lot of gas. If he can steal a soft quarter this guy knows how to win. Only 1-13 at Wbsb is a concern and will use but shoot for a better return.

0.20 Early Pick 5

7,8/6,7/5,10/1,3,7/1,3,4,9
Total Bet=$19.20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Louisiana Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Bar Money Cartel
Has not been completely embarrassed when trying similar company in the past, and the price should be right with a good outside draw waiting for him.


#1 Big Money Cuate
Looks like the one to beat, and you get two for the price of one here. That said, he has had a ton of chances and has zero excuses left, so I wouldn't be too excited to take a short price.


#5 Schramm
Another one who has had some chances and has fallen short at unappealing prices, but she's quick enough to win this if she brings her best. Underlay?


Race Summary
Bar Money Cartel might get overlooked today, and she has been a bit better since moving to this claiming price. Not impossible in race where the two likely chalks have major questions to answer.


Louisiana Downs - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 Jus to Kool
Has been on a tough string of luck while knocking on the door repeatedly and falling just short, but there are certainly some running lines here that would handle this bunch. Today's the day?


#2 Perry Mouse Tale
Reliable type fits well with these and dead-heated for the win last time out. Something similar probably keeps her in the mix today.


#4 The Cazador
This guy has been just missing with some pretty good groups, and he's got the look of the one to beat in this spot. Wouldn't want too short a price here, though.


Race Summary
Jus to Kool has been a bit unlucky while failing to score through some really sharp efforts, and he should offer a playable price today.


Louisiana Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Pantherinmotion
Might want just a bit better than the 4/1 ML price to jump in here, but she's an even-running type in a soft race. Chance.


#7 Five Bar Toast
Might get a bit overbet with this bunch, but she owns a couple of recent running lines that would probably handle these.


#6 Copper Speed Rocket
Has had plenty of chances, so she's tough to love here, but she has run a handful of recent races that might land her an underneath piece with these at a price.


Race Summary
Pantherinmotion has pretty reliable form, and that might be good enough to make a real impact with this group at what will hopefully be a fair price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 Intimidating
Was 3rd two back qt Delta and also has raced at Sam Houston over the winter; likely to have a fitness edge going this distance.


#1 Treasury Bill
Ran well at Oaklawn and Prairie Meadows and has the class edge; can be in close attendance throughout.


#7 Far Out Kailee
Was unplaced at Sam Houston and ran a string of three straight wins over this surface last year; serious player.


Race Summary
Intimidating has been running through the winter and should have the edge in the stretch run of this one.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Betty Jean
Has the sped to get to the lead and is capable of being the one to reel in; won a race here last year and has won eight over the past two seasons.


#1 Indian Gem
Was a non-threatening 4th at Delta in her latest and steps down in class; in the mix here.


#2 Between the Arches
Set the pace and held 3rd in an allowance at Remington last fall; capable of a good effort on or close to the front end.


Race Summary
Betty Jean is very rapid and can get clear; could have too much early fire power for these.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Big Game Hunter
Ran very well on occasion at Remington Park and was third at Sam Houston three races back; can make a solid room going long here.


#1 Blue Bomber
Took three straight at Delta Downs and has taken six of his last 12; can be troublesome on the front end.


#7 Dazzling Okie
Has been competitive at the starter allowance levels and is capable of being close from the outset.


Race Summary
Big Game Hunter gets a good pace in front of him and has a good chance to outlast his rivals here.

[TAWJR]

Whos good to follow in the ponies?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise



Turf Paradise - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 3-4) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $.20 Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)



Claiming $3,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $7,000 • Post: 2:21P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 115 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GLOA JEAN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. DAT CAT MIRACLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FOXY BY PROXY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. COCO LOCO MAMA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LUNAR PARTY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.



7

GLOA JEAN

10/1


5/1




4

DAT CAT MIRACLE

8/5


5/1




1

FOXY BY PROXY

5/2


8/1




2

COCO LOCO MAMA

9/5


9/1




6

LUNAR PARTY

15/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

LUNAR PARTY

6


15/1

Front-runner

64


48


91.2


42.6


34.1




5

OF COURSE IT IS

5


15/1

Front-runner

58


58


78.4


46.0


35.5




2

COCO LOCO MAMA

2


9/5

Front-runner

58


58


59.2


53.6


44.1




1

FOXY BY PROXY

1


5/2

Stalker

62


65


72.0


61.6


57.6




4

DAT CAT MIRACLE

4


8/5

Alternator/Stalker

56


63


61.8


55.4


50.9




7

GLOA JEAN

7


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

66


66


59.6


55.6


49.6




3

MORNING PRESS

3


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

54


48


43.4


49.2


37.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs



Will Rogers Downs - Race 9

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) First Half of Late Daily Double



Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 5:15P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OKLAHOMA STATE BRED ALLOWANCE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SUMMER'S INDY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUMMER'S INDY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. SHE'S SHINEY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff . UNPROVOKED: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. REACHREACHREACH: Jockey/Trainer combination return on inves tment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



10

SUMMER'S INDY

3/1


4/1




9

SHE'S SHINEY

4/1


6/1




6

UNPROVOKED

12/1


7/1




2

REACHREACHREACH

10/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




10

SUMMER'S INDY

10


3/1

Front-runner

90


85


83.0


85.6


82.1




9

SHE'S SHINEY

9


4/1

Front-runner

91


82


77.5


80.8


76.8




4

QUIET SPRING

4


15/1

Front-runner

76


68


76.8


58.8


41.8




6

UNPROVOKED

6


12/1

Front-runner

91


85


75.2


80.4


70.9




5

EUROMANDY

5


15/1

Front-runner

61


75


75.0


55.3


38.8




2

REACHREACHREACH

2


10/1

Front-runner

83


91


68.4


80.8


66.3




8

MATAPAN

8


6/1

Stalker

87


86


75.4


83.4


72.4




1

COUNTRY DAISY

1


12/1

Trailer

87


79


50.2


77.8


69.3




11

FIDDLERS TSUNAMI

11


7/2

Alternator/Non-contender

93


94


80.0


66.2


56.2




3

BROADWAY COUNTY

3


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

81


77


72.0


60.8


45.8




7

WIN IN THE WILLOW

7


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

77


57


24.7


48.4


27.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race CourseAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 LOVE MY BOSS 5/2




# 5 GIANT HONOR 3/1




# 7 SIR MICHAEL 7/2




LOVE MY BOSS has a decent shot to take this race. Posted a very good speed fig last time out. Has ran very well in dirt route races. No strangers to the winner's circle, Radosevich and Bracho will probably have this gelding breaking away from the field. GIANT HONOR - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look very good in this race. Reason to like this horse as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. SIR MICHAEL - Is worth looking at and may be a wager - strong Speed Figures (91 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Looks solid versus this group and should be one of the early speedsters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $7300 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 STYLINANDPROFILIN 2/1




# 1 GRAFICK 5/2




# 4 YO WINNER 5/2




STYLINANDPROFILIN has a very good shot to take this race. He should definitely be considered given the strong speed numbers. Has been racing soundly in races of this distance, going 3 - 13 under similar conditions. With a very good 69 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. GRAFICK - Is a solid choice - given the 73 speed rating from his most recent race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figs of this group. YO WINNER - Will almost certainly go to the front end and should never look back. Has to be carefully examined based on the formidable speed rating garnered in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 3:17pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 AWESOME E K (ML=3/1)
#5 VENDING MACHINE (ML=5/2)
#2 PRAYINTHEPRAIRIE (ML=12/1)


AWESOME E K - Moves back to a distance at which he ran a fig good enough to make him a contender today. Faced tougher last race out at Turf Paradise. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this animal on my list of top contenders. Popular angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today. VENDING MACHINE - This gelding is in exceptional physical condition right now. Ran third last race out and comes back rapidly. This gelding is tops in earnings per start. Take a long look at this horse in the paddock. PRAYINTHEPRAIRIE - Look for this one to go wire to wire at some decent odds in this race. Ran sixth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the end. This horse has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STAR OF THE DIA (ML=2/1), #3 AUSSIE ROCKS (GB) (ML=9/2),

STAR OF THE DIA - The morning-line choice is shaky here with the lack of drills. Can't invest in this questionable contender in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event lately. AUSSIE ROCKS (GB) - A bit of a less than stellar effort when this gelding finished fourth.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #7 AWESOME E K on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [2,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:36pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 LOVING MOMENT (ML=5/2)


LOVING MOMENT - Trainer Reed moves this thoroughbred down in class ranks to face a lower class field. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. This mare notched a good speed fig of 95 in her last event. That rating should be strong enough to triumph today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A MARCIE'S CANDY (ML=5/2), #5 CHANNEL PRINCESS (ML=7/2), #4 MISS FIRECRACKER (ML=4/1),

MARCIE'S CANDY - Just can't bet on this horse. Didn't show me anything last time out or on December 18th. CHANNEL PRINCESS - Difficult to put any money on this filly on the win end. Likes to end up on the board though. Should be difficult for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable contenders list. MISS FIRECRACKER - Should probably pass on this young horse, she hasn't had enough experience to win this kind of event.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LOVING MOMENT - This mare is number one in the bunch in earnings per start. I'm investing on this one.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #1 Entry to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [2,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sharp Plays

Exotic with the highest combined power rating at Will Rogers Down is Race #8. Scheduled post time is 5:45pm ET

First = #8 Seattle Thunder

Second = #1 Blue Bomber, #5 Cookies Are Good, #6 One Son of a Chief, #9 Holiday Mischief

$2 Exacta will cost $8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sharp Plays

I will take a shot at Louisiana Downs and see how the algorithm does in its maiden voyage in a quarter horse race. It shows the best calcuated value at Louisiana Downs today is Race #5, #2 Kingzridge (7/2).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

zlatantips

CHILE: Primera Division
O’Higgins – Antofagasta
Both teams to score : YES