Service Plays Saturday 4/11/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Oaklawn Mile April 9, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$150,000 OAKLAWN MILE
Saturday, April 11, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
It may not be Arkansas Derby Day -- that's been rescheduled for the first Saturday in May -- but this Saturday's 12-race Oaklawn card won't leave many disappointed. The Oaklawn Mile and Oaklawn Stakes share the marquee with full fields that are the hallmark on the day's program. And just like last week's Purple Martin Stakes locally, the lack of national stakes competition has resulted in both of these listed stakes looking a lot more like graded events. The Oaklawn Mile goes as Race 9 and will be our focus, while the Oaklawn Stakes takes place in Race 11.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners TOM'S d'ETAT and IMPROBABLE own the field's best resumes. LONG RANGE TODDY is a Grade 2 winner, while MR. MONEY is a Grade 3 winner and placed at the Grade 1 level.

Pace:
There's some cheap speed on the class rise in SLICK SILVER and HOME RUN TRICK, along with the Grade 2-placed PIONEER SPIRIT and listed stakes-winning sprinter BOLDOR. Add in wide-drawn KERSHAW. The pace should be solid and give those from the back a chance, but note that Oaklawn's 1-mile races end at the sixteenth pole finish line and deep closers have to get into gear sooner than usual.

Our Eyes:
Away since winning November's Grade 1 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs, the 7-year-old TOM'S d'ETAT has had his issues staying healthy. But when he's right, he's been lights-out. He's won 9 of 16 starts for $1.2 million and his last 4 wins have come over 4 different tracks. Don't expect his Oaklawn debut to be an issue about the footing. He takes his track with him when he's on his game. The son of Smart Strike has a good work over the track for this and should be sitting mid-pack -- or a bit more forward -- early with a beneficial post-3 draw.

IMPROBABLE is the field's other Grade 1 winner, but was far less fortunate in his post draw. The 14-hole provides a challenge for any runner in a 2-turn mile like this. But for a horse who has a midpack style, it's particularly difficult. He's not likely fast enough to be gunned to overcome, and not a deep closer to take back. Drayden Van Dyke almost certainly will wind up with a wide trip and IMPROBABLE will have to be best by a good margin to win. This is a horse who has not been particularly professional behind and inside the gate, so watch what happens as he loads last. He was second in last year's Rebel and Arkansas Derby locally, so we know he'll handle the surface here (wet or dry).

MR. MONEY, like IMPROBABLE, has been off since November's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Neither factored in that one to end their sophomore seasons, but MR. MONEY rattled off 4 consecutive graded victories on the 2019 campaign. He should be at home at this distance and get a good trip inside from just off the first flight of runners. I prefer his chances in this spot to IMPROBABLE and you're likely to get a better price in this corner to boot.

PIONEER SPIRIT, SNAPPER SINCLAIR and BANKIT all make their fourth stakes appearances of the Oaklawn meet, re-matched from the Fifth Season, Razorback and Essex. They've traded punches in all 3 with each having the better of their rivals at least once. But with the 0-46 local drought trainer Steve Asmussen has been on of late at Oaklawn (coming into this racing week), you're not out of line for leaning toward Robertino Diodoro's PIONEER SPIRIT. But given the pace scenario and coldness of Asmussen, I'll play against these local stakes veterans. The talented sprinter BOLDOR also fits into that category as part of the pace, and also trained by Asmussen.

FIGHT ON returns from Dubai for a Doug O'Neill barn that's really heated up during the latter part of the Oaklawn meet. He was fourth in this race last year as the 5-2 favorite and has a pair of wins over the track, including a stakes in 2019. He'll be a much bigger price this year than last, but post 13 for his pressing/midpack style will be a tall task for jockey Ramon Vasquez.

Allowance class risers from respected barns abound in MG WARRIOR (Brad Cox), KERSHAW (Phil D'Amato) and LORD GUINESS (Tim Yakteen). KERSHAW ran a career-best last time off a long layoff and has the most talent of the trio. But he's a seemingly need-the-lead type from post 12. MG WARRIOR should be the biggest danger of this group from off the pace over his home track.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:TOM'S d'ETAT has finished in the superfecta in 14 of his last 15 starts and is a classy animal with a good draw.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: LONG RANGE TODDY beat IMPROBABLE in last year's Rebel, but has not started since September's Oklahoma Derby at Remington. He's since changed hands from trainer Steve Asmussen to Dallas Stewart. He's trained quite well for this and could bounce back from poor form late in his 3-year-old season. Trainer Stewart at a big price in big races? We've seen it.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 exacta part-wheel TOM'S d'ETAT over MR. MONEY and LONG RANGE TODDY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Oaklawn Stakes Analysis & Selections April 9, 2020 | By Johnny D
This season’s traditional Triple Crown series is, like most of us, under quarantine. The Kentucky Derby has been re-scheduled for the first Saturday in September. But, at this writing, there’s no word on Preakness or Belmont fates. Along the road to the Triple Crown familiar signposts have been removed. Last Saturday, for example, Santa Anita Derby, Wood and Blue Grass original dates were lost to COVID 19. They join the Sunland and UAE Derbies, and Lexington Stakes as important 3-year-old races either cancelled or postponed.

Oaklawn Park, in Hot Springs, Arkansas, is just one of three tracks still operating that hosts major 3-year-old events. Tampa Bay Downs held their Derby on March 7, and Gulfstream enjoyed a banner Florida Derby extravaganza three weeks later. Now, it’s Razorback time. The Arkansas Derby, a key Kentucky Derby feeder event with a rich 170 points toward a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate was originally scheduled for Saturday. That race has been re-scheduled for May 2--a day that became available when Churchill repositioned the Kentucky Derby. In its place Saturday is the second running of The Oaklawn Stakes, a $200,000 mile and one-eighth event for 3-year-olds that has attracted a mixed bag of Derby hopefuls, matching once promising runners that have stumbled against improving types seeking a forward step. The first three finishers in this field will earn spots in the Arkansas Derby where purse earnings will otherwise determine starters.

Below is one man’s horse-by-horse analysis of The Oaklawn Stakes field with selections and a suggested wagering strategy.

1. Basin (Asmussen/Geroux) - 7/2

Here’s a colt that showed great promise around one turn in three 2-year-old races, winning Saratoga’s Hopeful by more than six lengths in the slop. He made his initial 2020 start a few weeks ago in the sloppy Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes. Rated early, he never really got a clear path to run until late. To his credit he didn’t give up. Expect different tactics to be employed Saturday with this son of Liam’s Map. Jockey Florent Geroux takes over and probably will hustle this guy to the lead early. There’s not much quality speed in here and Geroux has stolen a few soph races on the lead already this season. This colt’s the one to catch and, with a race under his belt, he should be ready to fire a good one.

2. Coach Bahe (Bauer/Sanjur) - 20/1

Off a solid muddy track maiden score, this son of Take Charge Indy moved aggressively into the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes. Lasix was added that afternoon and he ran and OK in fifth, beaten eight lengths. However, he’ll need to improve even more to threaten in here. Some might argue that since he finished less than one-length behind Basin in that race he deserves a look in here. Difference is that Basin already has run fast enough to win this, the ‘Coach hasn’t.

3. Mr. Big News (Calhoun/Saez) - 30-1

This son of Giant’s Causeway has improved with each start and comes here from Fair Grounds off a maiden win and a fifth placing in the Gr. 2 Risen Star. He needs to go faster to win this race.

4. Thousand Words (Baffert/Talamo) - 5/2

Unbeaten in his first three starts, including the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and the Gr. 3 Robert B. Lewis stakes at Santa Anita, this son of Pioneerof the Nile fired a dud in the Gr. 2 San Felipe when fourth, beaten more than 11 lengths behind fellow Bob Baffert trainee Authentic. Will he rebound and repeat earlier efforts that are good enough to win this? Baffert’s been juggling his top sophs around a shifting 3-year-old calendar and this seems like a spot the Hall of Fame trainer has chosen in an attempt to get this guy back on track while saving the trainer’s best 3-year-olds for runs at bigger prizes. ‘Words a grinder who keeps coming in the stretch. Baffert was quoted saying jockey Flavien Prat might have had the colt too close to the early San Felipe pace. Joe Talamo takes over for Prat and may look to place his partner around mid-pack. There’s not much speed in here, so Talamo shouldn’t get too far back early and leave this grinder with too much to do. This colt’s a real question mark because he’s good enough to win with his best, but not off his last two.

5. Sir Rick (Diodoro/Cohen) - 15/1

This well-traveled invader and son of Paynter likes to win races. He’s finished first in four out of six starts. This seems a step up in class. He’s got speed, so expect to see him close early and he drew clear last out in the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park in February, so he’s in form. His speed figures need a big boost to contend here, but it’s always dangerous to dismiss win types.

6. Shoplifted (Asmussen/Santana Jr.) - 10/1

This son of Into Mischief finished second, beaten over six lengths by stablemate Basin in the Gr. 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga. He hasn’t reproduced that form since, although he did win the Springboard Mile at Remington in December. Most recently he was fourth, beaten nearly nine lengths, in the Gr. 3 Southwest Stakes. He has plenty of graded stakes experience, including three Grade 1 tries at two. He’s one of three Steve Asmussen runners in here and he gets the barn’s go-to rider in Ricardo Santana Jr. Shoplifted doesn’t have much speed, so Santana probably will attempt to save ground for a late run.

7. Flap Jack (Sisterson/Beschizza) - 20/1

Winner of the Arlington Washington Futurity in September over Arlington’s synthetic surface, this son of Oxbow was outrun in the Gr. 3 Gotham at Aqueduct last out. He needs to do a bit better.

8. Taishan (Baltas/Rosario) - 8/1

An impressive romp in an Oaklawn allowance last out suggests that this son of Twirling Candy is doing well. He didn’t fare nearly as well in a pair of Gr. 3 tries before that. Jockey Joel Rosario returns in the saddle for SoCal-based trainer Richard Baltas—a winning combination. It’s unlikely he’ll make an easy lead in here like he did in his recent winning effort.

9. Digital (Calhoun/Hernandez Jr.) - 8/1

This lightly-races son of Into Mischief has lost ground in the stretch in his last two races and that doesn’t favor his chances in here. He did fire a big shot when second (awarded first money) in a Fair Grounds allowance race. Still, he’s got to improve to threaten in here.

10. Something Natural (Cox/De La Cruz) - 20/1

This son of Violence hails from the red-hot Brad Cox stable and was a well-beaten third in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park last out. That effort isn’t good enough to threaten in here and it was his best ever.

11. Background (Puhich/Rocco Jr.) - 12/1

After just missing at nearly 39-1 first out, this son of Khozen broke maiden in his next start by nearly five lengths at 5/2 odds. He then finished a well-beaten third in a ‘sloppy’ allowance race. Although he hasn’t taken a backward step yet, he’ll need to improve again to win this.

12. Farmington Road (Pletcher/Garcia) - 6/1

This son of Quality Road adds blinkers for this race for trainer Todd Pletcher. The colt has passed at least one foe in the stretch of all four lifetime races. That shows he’s got some ‘try’ to him. Runners like this must be respected in exotics, especially at decent prices. If blinkers help a bit, this guy will be running at the end. It doesn’t look like there’s enough speed in here to set the stage for him to win, but he tries and might hit the exotics.

13. Gold Street (Asmussen/Baze) - 20/1

Street Boss is the sire of this hard-hitting colt. He’s won three of seven starts, including one of two at Oaklawn Park. Importantly, he’s three for three on ‘wet’ tracks and zero for four over ‘fast’ surfaces. He’s got enough speed to be close early, as he attempts to flee this far outside post, and he won both the Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds in December and the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in January. Problem is that he tossed a clunker in Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes last out—he finished last by more than 23 lengths. Supporters will suggest that he had an uncomfortable trip that afternoon and they wouldn’t be incorrect. Still, he backed up so readily that it’s difficult to imagine him completely turning the tables in here. Perhaps he can be used in exotics and if it rains, all bets are off…move him up a lot.

Bottom Line: Expect #1 Basin to be sent for the lead from the rail by jockey Florent Geroux. How intent others are in going with him early will have a huge effect on the final results.

#5 Sir Rick figures to ‘go.’ Jockey Cohen ought to be content forcing the pace outside of Basin. #13 Gold Street will be asked for speed by jockey Baze from the far outside. If Basin breaks well, they won’t demand the lead and sit second or third. #4 Thousand Words should find a cozy spot just behind the front runners. He’ll be joined on the outside by #10 Something Natural. The rest will sort themselves out in the back of the field.

If the pace unfolds as expected above, when the real running starts, #1 Basin should have a solid response. First challenges will come from #13 Gold Street and #4 Thousand Words. #12 Farmington Road figures as the most determined closer.

The Play

($1 Trifecta--Total $18)

First: #1 Basin
Second: #4 Thousand Words, #12 Farmington Road, #13 Gold Street
Third: #4 Thousand Words, #5 Sir Rick, #6 Shoplifted, #8 Taishan, #10 Something Natural, #12 Farmington Road, #13 Gold Street

($.50 Trifecta—Total $21)

First: #1 Basin
Second: #4 Thousand Words, #5 Sir Rick, #6 Shoplifted, #8 Taisan, #10 Something Natural, #12 Farmington Road, #13 Gold Street
Third: #4 Thousand Words, #5 Sir Rick, #6 Shoplifted, #8 Taisan, #10 Something Natural, #12 Farmington Road, #13 Gold Street

Stay Home, Be Safe, Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, April 11: Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Picks April 9, 2020
From Hong Kong Jockey Club Racing Correspondent, Declan Schuster

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
Sunday, April 12, 2020
First Post: 12:30AM ET

Race 1: #4 Smiling Face, #6 Like That, #5 Sunny Star, #1 Chancheng Prince
Race 2: #3 Dragon Bolt, #6 Prawn Yeah Yeah, #12 Jimson The Dragon, #13 Whistle Up
Race 3: #1 Amazing Agility, #11 Reeve’s Muntjac, #3 Victorious Seeker, #2 Golden Kid
Race 4: #2 Good View Clarico, #4 Noble Desire, #7 Comfort Life, #11 Shining On
Race 5: #5 Party Genius, #14 Iron King, #12 Leading Fortune, #3 Circuit Hassler
Race 6: #5 Colonel, #2 Happily Friends, #1 President’s Choice, #10 Victory For All
Race 7: #4 Roman Impero, #3 Dream Warriors, #9 Galactic, #7 Jade Phoenix
Race 8: #8 Blastoise, #6 Super Elegance, #9 God Of Dragon, #10 Enzemble
Race 9: #1 Valiant Dream, #12 Kurpany, #2 Heart Conquered, #10 Corrienthes
Race 10: #11 Joyful Heart, #2 Beauty Smile, #9 Gift Of Lifeline, #13 Fantastic Show
Race 11: #1 Beauty Legacy, #3 Decrypt, #8 Star Shine, #13 All In Mind

Race 1: Yau Ma Tei Plate (12:30AM ET)

Difficult contest to begin with six debutantes doing battle in the first Griffin race of the season. Settled with #4 Smiling Face on top who showed a bit of ability in the trials and the booking of Joao Moreira for this contest warrants respect. #6 Like That is hard to get read on with just the one trial at Conghua under his belt. Blinkers on first time to sharpen him up and with Zac Purton taking the reins he’ll be worth keeping safe. #5 Sunny Star has been fair in his trial and gallops. He’s next best with #1 Chancheng Prince slotting in for fourth.

Race 2: Tai Kok Tsui Handicap (1:00AM ET)

#3 Dragon Bolt has done very little across his career so far in Hong Kong but perhaps stepping to Class 5 will spark sharp improvement in him and from the rail draw, with Alfred Chan’s seven pound claim in use, he is capable of trying to roll forward to pinch this. #6 Prawn Yeah Yeah gets the in-form Chad Schofield up. Fresh off a Wednesday double, Schofield is in supreme form at present and from the inside gate, he’s a leading player. #12 Jimson The Dragon is down to his mark. Zac Purton now hops on for the first time this season and if he can overcome the wide gate, he’s going to be in the finish. #13 Whistle Up is another who is down to his mark. He’ll likely be in the finish.

Race 3: Tsim Sha Tsui Handicap (1:30AM ET)

#1 Amazing Agility finished runner-up last start. He’s found his mark now in Class 5 and this is his chance to get over the line and win his way back into Class 4, especially with Zac Purton taking the reins. #11 Reeve’s Muntjac has gone unplaced since his win over this course and distance earlier this season. He’s drawn well for new boy Antoine Hamelin and the pair should get the gun run throughout. #3 Victorious Seeker has quality and has finished inside the top three at his last four outings. The booking of Joao Moreira signals intent and this contest appears suitable. #2 Golden Kid is a winner already this campaign. He has top weight duties to shoulder but this race isn’t overly strong.

Race 4: King’s Park Handicap (2nd Section) (2:00AM ET)

#2 Good View Clarico won well last start and shapes as the one to beat once again with Zac Purton sticking aboard. He’s drawn well and this appears his race to lose. #4 Noble Desire is lightly raced but has shown plenty of quality across his short four-start career. He’s drawn a touch awkward but shouldn’t be too far away in transit and with Joao Moreira taking over he warrants plenty of respect. #7 Comfort Life mixes his form but should get a charmed run throughout from gate one. #11 Shining On gets down with just 117lb to carry and as a Class 4 winner previously he rates strongly to get another.

Race 5: Mong Kok Handicap (2nd Section) (2:30AM ET)

#5 Party Genius is lightly raced with only two runs under his belt but has shown ability in both of those outings. He stepped out on debut as a heavy favourite but couldn’t manage to go on with it that day after putting together a number of impressive trials leading up to that run. Still, there’s no doubt he has ability and with even luck he’ll be able to showcase it. #14 Iron King slots in for second. He’s racing well and gets in with just 116lb to carry here as he searches for his first win. #12 Leading Fortune is winless but he has steadily improved with each start. He gets Joao Moreira on again now and the extra furlong on offer here could be exactly what he’s after. #3 Circuit Hassler is next best.

Race 6: King’s Park Handicap (1st Section) (3:00AM ET)

#5 Colonel is unlucky not to already be a winner in Hong Kong. Still, his narrow defeats have had plenty of merit to them and this time, from gate three, with Zac Purton engaged, could well see him get over the line in first position. #2 Happily Friends was sound on debut to finish fifth at 42/1. He’s drawn to get the right run from gate one and with any further improvement, he’s going to be testing these. #1 President’s Choice won well last start. He has gate 10 to contend with now but he does appear to have a number of ratings points still in hand. #10 Victory For All grabbed third two starts ago. If he can recapture that form here he won’t be too far away.

Race 7: Mong Kok Handicap (1st Section) (3:35AM ET)

#4 Roman Impero gets the services of Alfred Chan and his seven-pound claim. He’s drawn to get the right run and if he’s capable of finding the front early, he could string them along here. #3 Dream Warriors has been nothing short of consistent, grabbing third at his last two outings. He’s drawn a touch awkward for Vincent Ho but if he can offset that minor hiccup then he’s in with a winning shot. #9 Galactic stepped out on debut for fifth. He didn’t exactly have the best run in transit that day and his trials prior to that run suggested that he was better than that. Still, he gets a chance to atone for that although against him is gate 14, which could see him settle too far back with too much work to do. #Jade Phoenix has been consistent across his four start career with three minor placings to his name. He won’t be too far away.

Race 8: Jordan Handicap (4:05AM ET)

#8 Blastoise is looking for back-to-back wins. He’s in-form and the inside gate will once again afford him every opportunity to win. He faces Class 3 now for the first time but he still appears to have a number of ratings points in hand. #6 Super Elegance has been a hard luck story all season, with four runner-up efforts in a row from his eight runs this term. Still, he’s held his form and condition all term and once again he does rate as a leading player in this. #9 God Of Dragon mixes his form but is a winner already this term. He gets the new boy Antoine Hamelin aboard and he should be thereabouts with his best performance. #10 Enzemble is running out of chances and has become a costly conveyance across his career with four minor placings next to his name this season. Still, he has ability and figure from the inside draw.

Race 9: Ho Man Tin Handicap (4:35AM ET)

#1 Valiant Dream is nothing short of consistent. He’s a two-time winner this term and although he’s been a touch unlucky at times, he’s held his condition and the inside gate should afford him every opportunity and he rates as the one to beat. #12 Kurpany caught the eye at the trials although his debut, didn’t exactly go to plan when grabbing ninth. Zac Purton now takes the reins which is a good push and the inside draw should give him every chance. #2 Heart Conquered gets the services of Joao Moreira. He was a talented sprinter in Australia and he appears to have acclimatised well to life in Hong Kong. He can continue his rise through the grades. #10 Corrienthes is next best with that run under his belt.

Race 10: Hung Hom Handicap (5:10AM ET)

#11 Joyful Heart is a winner of two of his last four starts. He’s drawn awkwardly but this is a very suitable outing, especially off his latest runner-up effort. The in-form Chad Schofield takes the reins and as a two-time course and distance winner already this term, he is the one to beat. #2 Beauty Smile steps out on debut after arriving from Ireland where he was a Listed Stakes winner pre-import. He’s caught the eye at the trials and it wouldn’t shock to see him win on debut. #9 Gift Of Lifeline is a winner already this term. Barrier seven is suitable and he appears well after being scratched last start due to becoming fractious in the gates. He’s in with an excellent shout. #13 Fantastic Show is looking for the hat-trick of wins. He rises in class here but the retention of Joao Moreira is a good push.

Race 11: Austin Handicap (5:45AM ET)

#1 Beauty Legacy became his own worst enemy in the Four-Year-Old Classic Series, pulling and fighting his rider throughout each run at the rear of the field which clearly cost him in the straight. Now, key to his chances this week is a recent trial which saw him bowling along in the lead and if they elect to do that on Sunday, he could prove difficult to catch in his favourite spot. #3 Decrypt might only be small but he’s a pretty talented horse having placed in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas pre-import. He drops back from 2000m to 1400m which suits and he’s a leading player in this, especially with Zac Purton on. #8 Star Shine has had soundness issues previously but he has shown that has finally put those behind him. This is a hot Class 2 but he’s drawn well and the inside gate should see him get every chance. #13 All In Mind is looking for back-to-back wins. He gets in light and remains a place chance.

[GetTheseDimes]

IC 6* FC Sluts pick em -170 (7am)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jonathon Kinchen

2020 Oaklawn Stakes

Overview

This is a really fun race that should set the stage for the Arkansas Derby on May 2 when Nadal and Charlatan show up from California. The Bob Baffert-trained Thousand Words is a beatable morning-line favorite.

Analysis
12 Farmington Road (6-1)
I have been waiting to bet this horse since he crossed the wire in the Risen Star. He had a terrible trip that day, and I expect him to run much better in this spot. He gets an outside draw and adds blinkers, which should help him get that Oaklawn Park stalking trip that seems to do so well.

3 Mr. Big News (30-1)
I really love this horse who was closing into the slow pace in division of the Risen Star won by Modernist, who came back to run well in the Louisiana Derby.

4 Thousand Words (5-2)
He feels like the type that has to hit the board in this race. The inside draw could be tricky for this grindy runner, but I still think he is sitting on a big race. The extra ground is exactly what he has been wanting.

1 Basin (7-2)
He ran so well in the slop as a 2-year-old when winning the Grade 1 Hopeful, but he didn't take to the slop as well in his last start in the Rebel. With that being said, he was coming off a 194-day layoff, and the Rebel was his first try going two turns. Has a right to improve.

Wagering strategy
My only win bet will be on Farmington Road, and I will use him on top of exactas and trifectas. I'll also use Mr. Big News, Thousand Words and Basin on top of exactas and Mr. Big News and Thousand Words on top of trifectas.

Wagers
$25 win 12 ($25)
$10 exacta 12 with 1,3,4 ($30)
$5 exacta 1,3,4 with 12 ($15)
$1 trifecta 12 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,13 ($10)
$1 trifecta 12 with 1,2,3,4,6,13 with 3,4 ($10)
$.50 trifecta 3,4 with 12 with 1,2,3,4,6,13 ($5)
$.50 trifecta 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,13 with 12 ($5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TERRY TURRELL LOS ALAMITOS QUARTERS HANDICAP, SATURDAY, APRIL 11, 2020

FIRST POST IS 6 PM

FIRST RACE



#7 EURODOLLAR rough start finishing third making first start over the Los Alamitos surface and under the lights, value in the opener for the Valenzuela/Guce team. #6 SIERRA MELODY proved second best forcing the pace throughout facing $50,000 maiden claimers over Santa Anita good surface, strictly the one to beat and draws inside the top pick. #4 FED HIKE exits same heat as the top choice finishing second at 16-1 odds making his first career start and figures to improve off this race. Longshot - #1 WAR WATCH



SECOND RACE



#2 K P INDY well regarded colt in the Jeff Mullins barn broke his maiden in fourth career start should take to the Los Alamitos surface and protected facing this tough 870-yard distance. #4 TROMADOR claimed and making first start for trainer Ryan Hanson and jockey Ramon Guce who has a solid ROI when riding for this barn. #5 SWAMP’N AIN’T EZ invader from Turf Paradise won convincingly at this 870-yard distance making his first Los Alamitos start, will get stiff test for class tonight. Longshot - #7 EQUIPO A



THIRD RACE



#6 INTO MYSTIC thee wins from nine career starts and this $650,000 purchase is fresh off a dominating Sunland Park victory for trainer Jeff Mullins, Vinnie Bednar aboard tonight. #5 TINSEL TOWN QUEEN overcame a troubled start to win as much the best with gas in the tank beating decent Golden Gate field, will be testing the lights for the first time. #4 WE WILL RE JOYCE ten wins from thirty one lifetime starts and seldom misses a check, class will be tested. Longshot - #8 SHE’S IN LUCK



FOURTH RACE



#4 JOEJOE’S KINGDOM quick gelding raced wide throughout finishing second at 15-1 making first start for high percent Golden Gate trainer Quinn Howey in his first 2020 race, gelding will be big price in this spot. #2 MAKE IT A TRIPLE exits a productive Golden Gate and returns to Southern California for the Keith Craigmyle barn, reunited with winning jockey Vinnie Craigmyle. #7 LITTLE NO WAY on the shelf since July 2019 when making his first start off $25,000 claim for trainer Alfredo Marquez, steady works prepping for first 2020 start. Longshot - #6 ITALIANO



FIFTH RACE



#4 TOMASINO better than looked effort Golden Gate finishing fourth was claimed and makes first start for trainer Jerry Wallace tonight, contentious 870-yard event for claimers. #1 GUTSY STREAK five of his six career starts have been over the Los Alamtis surface, last win in November 2018 was at this 870-yard distance, draws the rail with speed to clear. #5 KENNY BENNY six times third and three times second from his last nine starts drops to his lowest level since claimed for $5,000 back in October 2019. Longshot - #7 SHADOW OP



SIXTH RACE



#4 ROYAL FLASH FAVORITE filly by Favorite Cartel in the barn of Chris O’Dell, who has a high percent success with two-year-olds making their first career start, Eduardo Nicasio rides. #3 PRECIOUS CORONA trainer Jorge Farias has the highest percent success with fi9rst time starts and this young fillies second work of 12.5 Mar 19 was third best of eighteen. #7 FG JESS PAINTIN THRU draws the outside post in field of seven for trainer Mike Robbins who has been winning at twenty-four percent this year. Longshot - #1 TEMPTRISS



SEVENTH RACE



#7 EL ARACADA home bred youngster by Eg High Desert Farms in the Jorge Farias barn draws the outside post in field of seven will have jockey Armando Cervantes aboard for her career debut. #1 UNSTOPPABLE ONE worked 12.3 Mar 21 proving fifth best of sixty seven for trainer Hector Magallanes, rail draw concern. #5 BF EMILY B FOOSEN one of three entries from the Paul Jones barn has indicated talent in her morning drills. Longshot - #6 FOOSE CHRIS



EIGHTH RACE



#3 A DASHING DELIGHT seldom misses a check and was unlucky in her last start finishing third after missing the break and losing her best chance, chance to make amends tonight for trainer Juan Aleman and jockey Jesus Ayala. #4 SPIRIT FOOSE last won three starts back at this 110-yard distance for trainer Paul Jones with jockey Ruben Lozano in the irons is strictly the one to beat. #1 UNIQUE WAYS filly bumped off stride at the start recovering to be second, draws the rail tonight, adding the Flipping Halter. Longshot - #5 I SPOT A COUNTRY CHIC



NINTH RACE



#5 CHRIS S FAVORITE another runner from the high percent barn of Chris O’Dell who was third facing tougher in his January 2020 start, drops to high priced claimers for the first time. #6 FAVORITE MONGOOSE claimed and double jumps making first start for trainer Valentin Zamudio, stumbled at the start in his last start losing all chance, can do better for new connections drawing the outside post in field of six. #4 KATES FIRST DOWN improved in her last two starts and cannot be ignored for the combination of trainer Felix Gonzalez and jockey Ocsar Peinado. Longshot - #3 LOOKE AT ME



Best Chance Bet – EURODOLLAR (1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gjelstad and Norheim

Belarusian Premier League

Slutsk v. Vitebsk (7 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +215

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Vitebsk.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Slutsk 1, Vitebsk 1


Torpedo BelAZ v. Energetik-BGU (9 a.m. ET)

Money line: Torpedo BelAZ +108

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Torpedo BelAZ.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Torpedo BelAZ 2, Energetik-BGU 1


Gorodeya v. Dinamo Minsk (11 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +235

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Gorodeya.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Gorodeya 1, Dinamo Minsk 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Nicaragua

6:00 PM ET

Managua FC -0.75 -128
Jalapa UN 2.5 -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Oaklawn Park Wagering Strategies - 4/11/20 April 11, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Oaklawn Park
Saturday, April 11, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:35 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-As Fast as You Can; 7-C P Quality; 12-Destiny’s Love

Forecast: A terrific Saturday card at Oaklawn Park begins with a low-level seller that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. As Fast as You Can, claimed back by R. Diodoro for $12,500 in a sign of confidence, is reunited with “win rider” D. Cohen and probably will beat this field with a repeat of her sharp score two runs back over this track and distance. This class drop isn’t really much to worry about from a stable that hits at an amazing 32% with the first-off-the-claim angle, so with a clean start from the rail and a trouble-free trip the daughter of Paddy O’Prado should be hard to beat. C P Quality, fourth in the same race our top pick exits after finding her best stride late to be fourth with a rally-wide trip, makes that same exact class drop off a claim, this one by J. DeVito. She knows where the wire is and with some help up might be heard from in the final furlong. Destiny’s Love has only one way to go – on the front end, gate-to-wire – and if the daughter of Even the Score and get over from her extreme outside draw she could run back to her recent score in a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 event that charts quite well in this league. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with As Fast as You Can worth a look in the win pool at or near her morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 2: Post 1:08 CT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Madison Way; 4-Adheretome; 8-Miss Imperial

Forecast: Miss Imperial arrives from Fair Grounds on a three-race winning streak but shows up for a $25,000 tag, well-below her claim level of $40,000 in early January. The B. Cox barn is very aggressive with its claiming stock, so we’ll accept the class drop as business as usual and expect the daughter of MacLean’s Music be on or near the lead throughout. One of the barn’s go-to riders, F. Geroux, takes the call. Adheretome just won at this level over a sloppy surface and if she can perform as well on dry land the daughter of Paynter looms the one to fear most. A perfect three-for-three over the Oaklawn Park main track, the R. Diodoro-trained filly isn’t as fast on speed figures as ‘Imperial but she may be one of those that rises to occasion when called upon. Madison Way seeks her third straight score while moving up from a starter’s allowance $10,000 event. Both of her wins were accomplished with O. Mojica in the saddle and he stays aboard. She figures to draft in behind the dueling leaders and have dead aim when it matters the most. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and hope to get home the best price.
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RACE 3: Post 1:39 CT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Skol Factor

Forecast: Skol Factor finished second in a strong, highly-rated and productive sprint in his debut in mid-February and has trained very well since, including a bullet five furlongs (:59.2/5, fastest of 28) nine days ago. There are a few interesting first-timers in the field and a couple of others that have displayed a bit of promise but nothing should stop the M. Robertson-trained son of The Factor from graduating today if he delivers anything close to a repeat of his first start. The switch to J. Rosario is added bonus for a barn that has excellent stats with second-time starters. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:10 CT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Shooters Shoot; 5-Blackberry Wine

Forecast: Shooters Shoot was quite impressive breaking his maiden at Santa Anita over this one mile distance with a stakes-quality speed figure that equaled the number he was assigned when finishing a distant second behind unbeaten Charlatan in his previous outing. The son of Competitive Edge surely will employ gate-to-wire tactics from his good inside draw, and with a nice three-furlong blowout over the local main track six days ago the P. Eurton-trained colt appears on edge for another top performance. We’ll take anything near his morning line of 7/2 if we can get it. Blackberry Wine “returned” to the maiden ranks and crushed his overmatched rivals by 13 lengths over a sloppy track last month with a big figure (he had been disqualified from two previous wins due to medication issues). The race really should boil down the these two, and on pure numbers they’re hard to separate, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Shooters Shoot on top.
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RACE 5: Post 2:41 CT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Millennium Force; 10-Nasty; 12-Cynical Girl

Forecast: Nasty ran much better than the line will show when fourth after an extremely difficult trip in a strong maiden-special-weight sprint in her debut at Fair Grounds in mid-February. She was boxed in behind runners most of the way and was forced to check repeatedly before finishing as best she could when clear in the final furlong. If she leaves cleanly and gets into proper rhythm, the daughter of Street Sense should be able to display her true ability, and at 6-1 on the morning offers a reasonable gamble in a fairly competitive six furlong sprint. The B. Cox barn hits at a powerful 26% with second-time starts and the Cox-Geroux combo is even stronger at 28%. Cynical Girl adds blinkers after flashing speed and then weakening in a sloppy track maiden sprint here last month. Her fast track effort two runs back – she was a distant second to the talented Edgeway while nine lengths clear of the rest – charts well here and with the switch to J. Rosario and leaving from an outside draw the daughter of Strong Mandate should have clear sailing and every chance. Millennium Force, a second-time starter from the T. Amoss barn, finished a solid runner-up while four lengths clear of the others on turf. Her pedigree suggest she’ll act on dirt just as well, so if she can produce a forward move for a trainer than hits at a very good 24% with second-timers she’ll likely have a say in the matter. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; we’ll have extra tickets keying Nasty on top.
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RACE 6: Post 3:12 CT. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Pneumatic; 9-Ancient Warrior

Forecast: Pneumatic won at first asking despite a terrible trip – he missed the break, was forced wide and then produced an extended rally from the 3/8ths pole to the wire – while earning a strong speed figure in a race that already has produced a next-out winner. The son of Uncle Mo tackles winners today and stretches out to a mile, but this could be a high quality colt and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the S. Asmussen-trained 3-year-old come right back and win again. He’s 7/2 on the morning and we’ll take that if we can get it. Rolling exotic player should also take a close look at Ancient Warrior, who picks up J. Rosario and stretches out for the first time. He’s the likely pace-setter if he wants to be, and as a son of Constitution certainly is bred to improve as the distances increase. The J. Hollendorfer-trained colt also is a fit on speed figures.
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RACE 7: Post 3:42 CT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Pit Boss; 11-Earner

Forecast: Earner displayed good ability when a strong runner-up in his debut at Fair Grounds in January, pressing the pace throughout and then winding up six lengths clear of a next-out winner while earning an excellent speed figure. The son of Carpe Diem has done very well in the a.m. since for a barn that is quite solid with second-timers (18%), and while we would have preferred to see another sprint under his belt before stretching out to two-turns, this colt has the pedigree to handle the extra ground and on paper simply should be better than these. Worth watching and perhaps including on a ticket or two as a back-up is the promising first-timer Pit Boss, who’ll leave from the rail under T. Baze. Yes, the W. Catalano barn has terrible stats with first-timer starters - this colt will be trying to break a 41-race losing streak with this angle - but the work tab indicates real ability so we’re expecting the son of Union Rags to run well, if not actually win.
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RACE 8: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-All West; 4-Gallant Plunger; 3-Mo Gotcha; 9-Proverb

Forecast: All West is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and we’re pretty much convinced that the lightly-raced four-year-old colt is a whole lot better than that. After being given a run in a troubled debut sprint in February, the son of Flashback stretched out successfully 20 days later when pressing an easy pace and then kicking clear with complete authority to register a very strong speed figure. Today, he moves up into a first-level allowance race and obviously is tackling a tougher group, but this colt is a progressive sort, and from where he’s drawn he’s very likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace stalking trip. J. Talamo, aboard for both his starts, stays aboard, so if you’re looking for a blowout horse in your rolling exotics, he’s the one. This race is not without other contenders, though. Mo Gotcha, drawn right alongside All West, sports the always-popular blinkers off angle and though having been stuck at this condition after four tries, the Uncle Mo gelding is fairly solid in the speed figure department and should be prominent throughout. Gallant Plunger, a son of Candy Spots stretching out for the first time, was awarded his maiden win via disqualification but continues to progress in the speed figure department and is bred to continue to improve with maturity and distance. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and is worth including at that price. Proverb switches to J. Rosario, and while he’s been a money burner in all three of his outings since joining the R. Baltas barn, the son of Flatter ran well when taken off the pace last time out over a sloppy track and finished willingly, a tactic that probably will be employed again.
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RACE 9: Post 4:43 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Mr. Money; 3-Tom’s d’Etat; 14-Improbable

Forecast: If Tom’s d’Etat returns as well as he left, he’ll most likely win the Oaklawn Mile, a $200,000 listed stakes that strongly resembles a Grade 2 event and perhaps even a Grade 1. The now 7-year-old son of Smart Strike closed out 2019 with victories in the Fayette S.-G2 and Clark S.-G1 with complete authority, and with a history of running well fresh he’s likely to return as a fit horse even though the work tab isn’t flashy. Another talented comebacker, Improbable, ships from California after registering a series of highly impressive workouts for his first start since finishing unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, looking very much like the colt that was so promising as a 2-year-old and then early in his 3-year-old campaign. The extreme outside post 14 might be a deal breaker, but the B. Baffert-trained son of City Zip seems ready to fire his best shot. Mr. Money a non-factor in the BC Dirt Mile, returns for W. Calhoun, who hits at a very strong 23% with a flat-bet profit with his layoff runners. The 4-year-old colt has been burning up the track at Fair Grounds preparing for his 4-year-old debut and is drawn quite well inside. With his kind of tactical speed, the son of Goldencents should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position and be a strong factor throughout.
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RACE 10: Post 5:14 CT. Grade: C+
Use: 7-Oxide; 9-Eddy Forever; 10-Dean Martini; 12-Hunt the Front

Forecast: On paper this looks like a below standard race for straight maiden 3-year-olds. Those that are likely to receive most of the action have below par speed figures for the level, a handicapping model that often produces a chaotic result. Therefore, we’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics without any true conviction.Dean Martini, the lukewarm morning line favorite at 7/2, is a six-race maiden with numbers that have stagnated but he’s fairly reliable, having hit the board in five of six career starts, most recently when closing wide to be a runner-up in a similar spot over this track in late February. That type of effort might be good enough today. Oxide, a close third in his last pair, has middling numbers but is lightly-race and has yet to have chance over a dry, fast track. The E. Kenneally-trained son of Golden Lad should be prominent throughout and have every chance to seal the deal. His morning line of 5-1 seems about right. Hunt the Front picks up J. Rosario but must leave from the extreme outside 12-post position. Second in his last three with numbers that fit, the son of Revolutionary will be running on strongly through the lane and with some help up front might tag the speed. Eddy Forever always trained better than he ran when in the B. Baffert stable in California and today will make his first start since joining the R. Diodoro stable. The son of Medaglia d’Oro had a sharp recent half mile drill (:47 3/5, second fastest 54), so maybe he’ll improve, but who knows? We’ll toss him in.
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RACE 11: Post 5:48 CT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Basin; 5-Sir Rick; 9-Digital

Forecast: Basin did well to finish as close as he did (third, beaten almost eight lengths) in his seasonal debut in the Rebel S.-G2 behind unbeaten Nadal and seems certain to improve dramatically with that effort under his belt. Last year’s Hopeful S.-G1 winner was bottled up behind horses most of the way and in heavy traffic when trying to rally at the top of the lane but was forced to lose all of his momentum and whatever chance he may have had. To his credit he stayed on gamely to secure third money. If he leaves cleanly form the rail, the son of Liam’s Map should be within striking distance while saving ground and then have the opportunity to produce a winning late kick. Sir Rick gets tested for class after successive wins at Sam Houston and Sunland Park, the most recent in the Mine That Bird Derby. He’s not where he needs to be on speed figures but the son of Paynter continues to improve in every race and may be better than his morning line of 15-1. We’ll have a ticket or two using him as saver, as we will with Digital, fifth in the Risen Star S.-G2 last time out with a less than ideal trip but with numbers that give him an outside look at 8-1.
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RACE 12: Post 6:19 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Popular Kid; 6-Exulting; 10-Sonny Smack

Forecast: Exulting exits a series of much tougher races and is realistically spotted in this allowance optional $50,000 claimer over a main track he’s won on in the past. The Tapit gelding is a one-paced grinder whose style doesn’t translate well on grass, but under these conditions the M. Maker-trained gelding should show his best stuff. Popular Kid won a pair of recent races from softer in a breeze, but both wins were accomplished over a wet track. How he’ll do on fast ground remains to be seen (and regular jockey M. Garcia jumps off to ride Exulting) but with J. Rosario taking the call we’ll include him in rolling exotic play on the chance that he really has improved since joining this stable. Hunka Burning Love should produce a forward move in his third start off a layoff after a troubled trip on a wet track vs. tougher last month. If he can make the lead, the Into Mischief gelding could get brave on the front end at 15-1 on the morning line. At that price, you have to use him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/11/20 April 11, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, April 11, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade:
Use: 1-Bolt; 7-Primo Posto; 9-Goldenlineof; 11-Venerate

Forecast: The Saturday 13-race program begins with an inscrutable five furlong turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive and advance going four-deep. Primo Pasto, freshened since late December, is re-equipped with blinkers, drops to his lowest level ever, and has a few “buried” numbers that make him dangerous. He broke his maiden sprinting on grass at Colonial Downs, so this abbreviated dash fits him nicely. With a clean break he could find himself in a perfect stalking position, ready to pounce. Goldenlineof returns to grass and can win a race like this with a repeat of his race-before-last when beaten a neck in a slightly stronger abbreviated grass dash that earned him a career top speed figure. But can you trust a horse that has a career record of 1-for-36? The short answer is no, but on pure form he’s actually a legitimate contender. Venerate returns cheap in his first outing since the fall for a barn that has poor stats with layoff runners. But the Treasure Beach gelding has a prior win over the local lawn and speed figures from last year put him in the picture, so at 10-1 on the morning line you have to use him. Bolt represents inside speed and in fact may be the quickest leaving the gate. His numbers aren’t strong but if he can shake loose early he could get brave. Controlling speed always is dangerous, so you have to include him, as well.
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RACE 2: Post 12:58 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Witch Hunter

Forecast: The second half of the early daily double is a bottom-rung maiden claiming one-turn miler for fillies and mares that features a typical (for this outfit) huge class dropper from the S. Joseph, Jr. barn. Witch Hunter, plummeting from the maiden $50,000 ranks, is a complete standout on just about any handicapping factor you wish to apply, but that’s why she’s 4/5 on the morning line. The Khozan filly removes blinkers in her second start since joining this high percentage barn, is a standout on speed figures, and has a good stalking style that should keep her free of trouble. She’s an obvious short price rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise offers no real wagering value.
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RACE 3: Post 1:26 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Light Fury; 4-Queen’s Mason; 5-Chill Haze

Forecast: Chill Haze makes his first start since being claimed for $50,000 by new trainer S. Joseph, Jr., whose strike rate with the first-off-the-claim angle is an amazing 40 percent. The son of Justin Phillip returns at the same level, switches to the barn’s go-to rider T. Gaffalione and seems sure to improve in just his third career start. At 3-1 on the morning line there’s some value to be found but given the connections we suspect he’ll go lower. Queen’s Mason is a strong fit on speed figures based on form in straight maiden company in Kentucky last fall. Off the layoff with a moderate work tab for trainer M. Trombetta (fair stats with come-backers), the son of Liaison is no sure thing to be fit and ready but if he is, he can be dangerous. Light Fury, an okay third at 53-1 after a bit of a slow start in his debut vs. similar last month, has a right to improve a bit and may be worth tossing in on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 4: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Free Flayme; 3-Enzoexpress; 5-Azkaree

Forecast: From a horseplayer’s standpoint, this is a brutal race, the cheapest carded on this circuit (nw-2 $6,250 claimer). There’s a 7/5 morning line favorite, Enzoexpress, making his first start since September and plummeting from $50,00 to the bottom, making his condition a huge question mark. On the positive side, the barn has superior stats with layoff runners and the work tab looks reasonable, so if the Tapizar gelding has one good one left he’ll beat this field, but at a price that won’t be worth taking. Free Flayme, in the frame in his last pair and with speed figures that are par for this level, makes a highly favorable jockey change to P. Lopez, exits a productive heat, and should be forwardly placed, perhaps even on the lead if the favorite doesn’t display his usual zip. The barn’s been cold lately but this gelding is in good form and should at least get a piece of it. Azkaree won at first asking with a speed figure that makes him competitive but where has he been since mid-January? The work tab is suspect, as well. There are too many question marks, so we’ll pass the race.
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RACE 5: Post 2:23 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Lashara

Forecast: Lashara spun her wheels sprinting on dirt in her debut last month but that race was fairly strong and already has produced a next-out winner among the also-rans. Today, this much-better-than-shown 3-year-old filly stretches out to a mile and switches to grass, and her workouts indicate she’s a much better mover and much more comfortable on the lawn, so we’re expecting massive improvement. With L. Saez staying aboard, the M. Casse-trained daughter of American Pharoah should be comfortably placed throughout and then have every chance to kick home when called upon. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post 2:52 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-War Detonator

Forecast: Prior to his debut in September of his 2-year-old season, War Detonator had trained very impressively on dirt while acting like an excellent prospect; however, owning to his pedigree the son of Declaration of War was asked to debut going long on the lawn. Though well-backed as the favorite, he never got untracked, and after a wide trip in a slowly-run race the C. Brown-trained colt finished a well-beaten eighth and then disappeared. Now four, he returns for new trainer C. Clement sprinting on dirt following a series of noteworthy bullet drills over the deep Payson Park training track, and we suspect this son of War Front from the stakes winning A. P. Indy mare Diva Spirit will show the kind of speed that can win this older maiden extended sprint. At 15-1 on the morning line (don’t expect to get it) we’ll make him a strong win gamble and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post 3:22 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-King Orb; 6-National Honor; 7-Derby Champagne

Forecast: The seventh race is grass grab bag for $16,000 older claiming milers that drew a full field. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. Derby Champagne may rate a very slight edge on top after missing by a neck vs. $25,000 foes when rallying against the grain last time out. He’s more than good enough on speed figures to beat this field, but he’s been sparingly raced of late and in fact is dropping in class as if he’s for sale. The switch to T. Gaffalione is a positive move, so if he has one good one left and is able to negotiate a decent trip, the veteran son of Pulpit could get up in time. National Honor rallied from far back to win a similar event over this course last month but he’s a deep closer vulnerable to slow or moderate fractions and needs everything to break his way to be successful. He’s a two-time winner over the Gulfstream Park grass course but the J. Cibelli-trained gelding finished off the board more times in his 23 race career than he’s finished on it, so we’ll include him without necessarily trusting him. King Orb, a four-time winner over the local lawn and returning to the straight $16,000 claiming ranks, could find himself comfortably placed in a stalking position in a race that may not produce much pace. First or second in nine of 20 career starts, the R. Crichton-trained gelding has several back speed figures that make him dangerous.
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RACE 8: Post 3:52 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Per Capita; 7-Colonial Liam

Forecast: Colonial Liam breezed a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds at the 2019 OBS April sale and then brought $1.2 million through the ring. The son of Liam’s Map finally makes it to the races a year later and has done enough good work at Palm Beach Downs for trainer T. Pletcher to be fit and ready in this maiden special weight event that didn’t come up particularly deep. He’s a strong, powerful colt with plenty of substance and nice long stride, so it makes sense to debut him at this one-turn mile trip. At 5/2 on the morning line we’ll put him on top, but also include in our rolling exotics the come-backing Per Capita. The son of Tapit earned a couple of fairly decent speed figures when third and then sixth in a pair of appearances in New York last summer before being stopped on, and it’s possible he’ll be a better type this time around following a nice series of workouts at Payson Park. The C. Brown barn is 28% with layoff runners, so we’ll include him on our ticket just in case Colonial Liam doesn’t quite meet our expectations.
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RACE 9: Post 4:23 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Givemetwenty; 4-Young Raymond; 7-Zanno; 9-Miami Crockett

Forecast: This race came up extremely strong and contentious, featuring at least four major players and requiring a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. was sharp in his first outing since June and his first on grass when beating maiden $50,000 foes over this course and distance last month with a good stalking trip and a better than par speed figure. If the R. Nicks-trained colt can duplicate or slightly improve that effort, he’ll have a reasonable chance to score right back. Young Raymond easily handled a maiden $25,000 group sprinting on grass in late February and was claimed by M. Maker, who raises him to the starter optional $50,000 level in a sign of confidence. The Gemologist gelding switches to T. Gaffalione and may be the speed of the speed. Miami Crockett is a perfect two-for-two over the local lawn and has a good stalking style that he can employ from his outside draw. On pure numbers, he’s right there with the rest of them. Zanno returns protected by W. Ward while removing blinkers in his first start since finishing second in an allowance race at Colonial Downs last August. The works indicate he’s plenty fit, and he earned numbers as a 2-year-old that make him a strong threat in this class. Though he was on the lead in both of his grass outings last year, he’s been trained to come from off the pace this time around, so we’re be expecting to see a change in tactics from the son of Verrazano.
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RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Boerne; 4-Gogo Shoes; 7-Lastchanceforlove

Forecast: This is an interesting first-level allowance sprint for 3-year-old fillies, with the three main contenders each last-out maiden winners but from different circuits. Boerne ran to her good workouts when winning over the Gulfstream Park main track last month in gate to wire fashion and similar tactics surely will be employed again due to her inside draw. The daughter of Fed Biz shortens up a half-furlong and appears quick enough to establish the pace. We’ll see what she’s made of from the quarter pole home. Lastchanceforlove won at first asking at Fair Grounds like a quality filly and earned a speed figures that makes her a strong fit on the raise. She’ll be part of the pace throughout, perhaps as a presser or a stalker, and then will have her shot when the pressure is turned on into the lane. Gogo Shoes parlayed a nice stalking trip into a powerful maiden score at Tampa Bay Downs last month and did so with a speed figures that makes her tops in that department in this field. This is a much better group, but with just two career outings the daughter of Carpe Diem has plenty of room for growth, picks up P. Lopez, and is a “must use” as 6-1 on the morning line.
*
*
RACE 11: Post 5:24 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Supreme Aura; 10-Battle of Blenheim

Forecast: Battle of Blenheim, a winner of his last two but dropping from $50,000 to $35,000 in his first start since early January and drawing a bit farther out (post 10) then is ideal, nonetheless deserves the edge on top in this middle distance turf affair for older horses. Despite the class drop, the veteran gelding remains above his $25,000 purchase price and a bullet recent five furlong dirt workout (1:01 1/5, fastest of 10) gives indication that the son of War Front, who has run well fresh several times in the past, is ready to resume his winning ways. There’s nothing attractive about his probable price (he’s the 9/5 morning line favorite) but he’s a versatile sort who can win on the lead or from off the pace, so L. Saez can assess the situation and pick the proper path. Supreme Aura is worth including in rolling exotic play as well. A sharp winner over a sloppy track in a $40,000 seller at Aqueduct in February, the Candy Ride gelding makes his first start off the claim for new trainer D. Fawkes and has main track numbers that make him competitive on this circuit. His one grass race – a five furlong sprint at Fair Grounds last year vs. tougher - wasn’t bad (he finished a closing fourth) so we doubt the surface switch will be an issue. At 6-1 on the morning line, you can use him as a back-up or a saver.
*
*
RACE 12: Post 5:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Liza Star; 7-Heiressall; 9-Pacific Gale

Forecast: This is a good, competitive third-level allowance main track sprint for fillies and mares. Our top choice is Liza Star, a veteran win-machine from the P. Walder barn fresh from a sharp score with a strong figure in a softer allowance dash here two weeks ago. She’s most comfortable on the lead but can stalk and pounce if necessary, so M. Vasquez has that option if he senses that J. P’s Delight, drawn inside of her, is hellbent on going to front. ‘Star, a winner of nine races over the Gulfstream Park main track, is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, a good value at that number for such a professional race mare. Heiressall was overmatched in the Herecomesthebride S-G3 last month but should go much better in this league. She’ll likely draft into a second flight early position and then try to rally from there. It may be significant that she switches to P. Lopez and her career top speed figure was earned when Lopez rode her to a runner-up effort in a state-bred stakes over this main track last summer. Pacific Gale, away since last summer when she was consistently competing and getting pieces of the purse in graded stakes races at Belmont Park and Saratoga, has worked slowly and easily for her return, and it’s possible she’s a race away from behind dead tight. The other concern is her lack of good gate zip from an extreme outside post at this six furlong distance. However, it’s been awhile since she’s seen this level of competition so we’ll include her in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 13: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Flyoff; 7-Bondurant; 9-Twenty Four Seven

Forecast: The finale is a $16,000 claiming turf miler, a split of today’s seventh race and every bit as challenging. With no strong opinion, we’ll use three in our rolling exotics and hope to get a decent price home. Twenty Four Seven, once good enough to compete in the 2018 Arlington Million S.-G1, has been sparingly raced since but won a race over this course and distance in early February and was claimed by S. Joseph, Jr. The veteran gelding returns at the same level following a two month vacation and picks up the barn’s go-to rider, L. Saez, so if he’s feeling up to it the son of City Zip could score right back. Bondurant is winless in nine career starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course but needs to be held up and allowed to produce the last run and given that type of ride from L. Reyes he could make his presence felt in the closing stages. The M. Maker-trained gelding is worth consideration at 8-1 on the morning line. Flyoff, nosed out by Twenty Four Seven two runs back but sixth with a wide trip vs. tougher in his most recent outing, is back where he belongs today, switches to E. Zayas, and should be primed for a big effort in his third start off a long layoff. He’s a lightly-raced six-year-old that has hit the board in six of 10 career starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#7 Pact
Speedster dueled then tired late to be 3rd behind a runaway winner, but likely won't have to work as hard early here, Centeno stays, and she'll be a square price too; theft is on the agenda.


#8 Nagini
The chalk drops in half after a distant 3rd for 32k, so clearly she hits hard, but she's also at the mercy of the pace, drew poorly, and will be overbet, so there are hurdles; runs out of room late.


#34 Dakota Beach
Logical sort beat the pick when 2nd last time and will be relatively close to her pace, but she's also been stuck in neutral, so there's no upside here, at underlaid odds as well; underneath only.


Race Summary
The post really flatters the 7, as he can press the proceedings from the outside and get first run off the far turn, and that will really flatter his chances, while potentially hurting those of the 8, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win in the $10 range, over a solid favorite to boot, will add some value to the sequence right off the bat.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 Buffalo Max
Lightly raced runner really woke up in his second start, now makes the often pivotal third start of his career, has a world of upside, and meets a crew who have had several chances to show what they can-and can't-do; look out.


#8 Pozman
Slight class riser was 2nd, beaten a nose, at 3-5 last time, and that makes him the one to beat here, class rise and all, but that 8-0-3-2 record is starting to wreak like he's not to interested in winning a horse race; second-best.


#11 Enjoy Baseball
MSW dropper also runs as a first-time gelding, so he could wake up here, and those MSW races in Ohio are similar to this group, and maybe even a bit better, though the November layoff and wide draw doesn't entice; tricky read.


Race Summary
That 7-2 ML on the pick seems mighty fair, especially when you consider that he's likely going to move forward today too, which means he'd be laying down a race the rest of these simply won't be able to handle, so play him aggressively to win and place at 3-1 or better, though you'll get some additional value by singling him in the early Pk5/Pk4, as that will allow for more coverage in the deeper surrounding races, as he looks to be in a mighty good spot here.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#12 Mister Storm
Longshot GP invader was facing much better on the other coast and now gets a huge trainer switch to Delgado, so from a nice outside attack post, in a race there for the taking, he lokos very playable with expected improvement coming; upset special.


#11 C'Era Una Volta
The horse to beat has been tossing out some solid figures and was a decent enough 5th while trying the level for the first time, in a race that saw the top-2 come right back to win, and he gets bonus points with a rating gear in a very speed race; scary.


#2 Sky Point
Fellow GP runner has no speed and now switches to an 0-for-17 trainer, but he's another who gets some class relief, and while he may not break the barn's winless streak, he may pass a more than a few in the lane with the hot splits up front; exotics appeal.


Race Summary
You're not seeing that 20-1 ML on the pick (and run away if you do), but even 10-1 seems fair on a runner who wasn't terrible on the return to the dirt last time, and now goes for a barn that is aces in these here parts, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he may get ignored, even though he's got every run to run a career-best here, which would give him a puncher's chance against a group like this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 Lil Bull
Worth a small flyer in a spot where the pace may be pressured and the big chalk dropper will likely be taking all the heat early on. Not sure if this guy is even fast enough to win with a great potential race shape, but the price is right to find out.


#3 Enzoexpress
Dropper gets into a significantly easier spot off the layoff, and going for the Rivelli barn, there is a real chance he simply runs this group off their feet. That said, the price will be short, he probably won't get a breather, and who even knows what type of horse he's going to be coming back like this.


#1 Major Kelly
Price player is another who would benefit from a really solid pace, but thinking he's best used in the underneath spots in the gimmicks.


Race Summary
Enzoexpress probably wins this at a short number, but the negative race shape, the short price, and the big drop offer just enough pause to go looking elsewhere. Lil Bull may clunk along late and accidentally grab a big piece of this.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#8 Bachelor's Bait
The debut run didn't earn a good figure at all, but she looked just fine to these eyes in a pretty professional performance. At a likely big price, I'll take a small swing off the visuals.


#7 Lastchanceforlove
Looked pretty good at Fair Grounds when showing pretty natural pace and finding plenty in the stretch. There might be more here.


#4 Gogo Shoes
No clue what to do with this one -- her last race is the opposite of the top choice's for me. It looks really good on paper, but she was working really hard for almost a half mile to get there. Guess she can win this.


Race Summary
Bachelor's Bait is probably overlooked off the debut win that came back slow on paper, but she didn't look bad winning it. She'll get tested here to see if she's better than she looks on paper, but if the price is double digits, it's worth a small swing.


Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 Light Fury
Didn't have the easiest trip when away a bit slowly, and he rushed into a spying spot before that. He flattened out a bit in the lane, but that's a forgivable offense after the tricky trip. Expecting better.


#4 Queen's Mason
Drops off the layoff for this one and can certainly win this. His positional pace probably keeps him the mix in the early going. Wouldn't want too short a price.


#5 Chill Haze
This guy was up close to a solid set of splits last time out when traveling a mile, and he'll shorten up off the Saffie claim, making him a big danger right back.


Race Summary
Light Fury would be attractive at something like 4/1, as he flashed a little bit of ability at points in the debut run and can build on that effort today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#4 Jess a Hilbily Bone
Can track a fast pace and has the last kick to get past this group; has excelled over this track on occasion.


#1 The Louisiana Dream
Was an easy win in two last fall at Prairie Meadows and didn't hit the board in two at Remington; speed and inside post helps.


#2 Jb Gray Dawn
Is a much better horse gong 870 yards and always gets the lead early on in long races; ran well at Los Alamitos and is a serious threat here.


Race Summary
Jess a Hilbily Bone has a decent closing move and gets an ideal pace set-up; capable of getting it done in the final furlong.


Remington Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#5 Nice Socks Ms Hocks
Came on well for 3rd last time and should appreciate stretching out to 350 yards; one to hold off.


#4 La Blue Perry
Just missed last time in his 1st of the year; ran vs. the toughs at Ruidoso last summer and clearly has turned the corner in a return to the maiden ranks.


#8 Wagon of Cash
On the board in his last three and ran a solid 2nd in his 1st of the year; in the hunt throughout this one.


Race Summary
Nice Socks Ms Hocks ran on last time, gets more distance and could be closer early in the race; expect a strong finish.


Remington Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#2 Df Fabulous Coco Ia
Tired late in the Oklahoma Juvenile and drops to a maiden-claiming tag here; lost her debut by a nose in a Futurity trial and fits very well here.


#6 Barbie Wagon
Was mid-pack in his only start and likely can improve on that effort; will be tough down the center of the strip.


#4 Peves Wagoner Queen
Has a very good work to her credit and is likely to show her talent in her initial start; worth a look.


Race Summary
Df Fabulous Coca Ia qualified for a consolation for the Oklahoma Futurity and is a much softer spot this time around; can graduate here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 9:09P


QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * WHY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MH MIGHT B LEAVIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of t he gate fast. RELENTLESS COWBOY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. TF IMA CORONA CARTEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CELEBRATORI: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.



4

WHY

6/1


6/1




9

MH MIGHT B LEAVIN

4/1


7/1




3

RELENTLESS COWBOY

3/1


7/1




1

TF IMA CORONA CARTEL

15/1


8/1




5

CELEBRATORI

12/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

TF IMA CORONA CARTEL

1


15/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

70


89


6.6


0.0


0.0




2

JES WHAT WE WANT

2


10/1

Slow

80


71


8.4


0.0


0.0




3

RELENTLESS COWBOY

3


3/1

Average

90


84


4.2


0.0


0.0




4

WHY

4


6/1

Average

96


85


4.2


0.0


0.0




5

CELEBRATORI

5


12/1

Fast

82


84


2.6


0.0


0.0




6

CLEOPATRA

6


15/1

Slow

67


69


7.6


0.0


0.0




7

TAKINTHECARTELSCASH

7


6/1

Fast

71


72


3.5


0.0


0.0




8

PILOTEN POINT

8


20/1

Average

81


76


4.5


0.0


0.0




9

MH MIGHT B LEAVIN

9


4/1

Fast

83


76


3.3


0.0


0.0




10

UNDRAFTED

10


5/1

Average

90


74


5.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)



Claiming $20,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 85 • Purse: $9,170 • Post: 9:44P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS CURLIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHRIS S FAVORITE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KATES FIRST DOWN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAVORITE MONGOOS E: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



2

JESS CURLIN

4/1


5/1




5

CHRIS S FAVORITE

2/1


6/1




4

KATES FIRST DOWN

7/2


7/1




6

FAVORITE MONGOOSE

3/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

CHANCER

1


12/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

74


68


7.4


0.0


0.0




2

JESS CURLIN

2


4/1

Slow

93


88


7.8


0.0


0.0




3

LOOKE AT ME

3


5/1

Average/Trouble-prone

84


78


4.9


0.0


0.0




4

KATES FIRST DOWN

4


7/2

Average

89


78


3.6


0.0


0.0




5

CHRIS S FAVORITE

5


2/1

Average

87


85


4.3


0.0


0.0




6

FAVORITE MONGOOSE

6


3/1

Average

85


79


6.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #11 - Post: 5:24pm - Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $46,000 Class Rating: 106

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#14 SOUPER SCAT DADDY (ML=6/1)
#4 SUPREME AURA (ML=6/1)
#13 BASHA (ML=8/1)


SOUPER SCAT DADDY - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that he likes the turf. His speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. This horse is a gem of consistency, almost always in the money. Came home fast last out at Gulfstream Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race. SUPREME AURA - This jock and trainer have a lucrative return on investment when they join forces. I like this gelding. Has the uppermost earnings per start in today's contest. BASHA - A campaigner coming back this quickly after a strong effort is a good signal. In the last race, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM (ML=9/5), #11 HONEY WON'T (ML=9/2), #12 HIEROGLYPHICS (ML=8/1),

BATTLE OF BLENHEIM - Difficult to put your money on this speedy one. Too much early speed in the clash. HONEY WON'T - In all probability won't make much of an impact this time. HIEROGLYPHICS - Hard to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much early speed in the event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #14 SOUPER SCAT DADDY to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,13,14]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,13,14] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 110y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 91

QUARTER HORSE 110Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 SPIRIT FOOSE 9/5




# 2 FED X CARTEL 4/1




# 1 UNIQUE WAYS 9/2




I think about SPIRIT FOOSE here. Has garnered reliable Equibase speed figs in short races in the past. As of late Lozano has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. His 81 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase speed figs here. FED X CARTEL - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last competition. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group. UNIQUE WAYS - Has raced admirably in short races. With Cervantes controlling the reins on her, this filly will probably be able to break out sharply in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park



04/11/20, OP, Race 9, 4.43 CT
04/11/20,OP,9,1M [Dirt] 1:34:02 STAKES. Oaklawn Mile Stakes. Purse $150,000. FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. No nomination fee. $1,000 to pass the entry box and $1,500 additional to start. Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $3,000 which qualifies to start with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the Owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to be divided equally between remaining starters. WEIGHTS: 122 lbs. Non-winners of $60,000 in 2019-2020, allowed 3 lbs.; $50,000 in 2020, allowed 5 lbs.; $40,000 since February 11, 2020 allowed 7 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races not considered in allowances). In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to receive a trophy. Nominations closed Thursday, April 2, 2020 with 49 nominees.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
1
Slick Silver
30-1
Emigh C A
Vanden Berg Brittany A
JTFC
33.17
1.14/$1


095.57
14
Improbable
7/2
Van Dyke D
Baffert Bob


47.83
1.61/$1


095.55
3
Tom's d'Etat
3-1
Rosario J
Stall. Jr. Albert M.
E
47.83
1.61/$1


094.42
4
Pioneer Spirit
6-1
Cohen D
Diodoro Robertino


33.17
1.14/$1


094.23
6
M G Warrior
15-1
Talamo J
Cox Brad H.


33.17
1.14/$1


094.15
2
Mr. Money
4-1
Saez G
Calhoun W. Bret


47.83
1.61/$1


093.50
7
Snapper Sinclair
10-1
Geroux F
Asmussen Steven M.


47.83
1.61/$1


092.19
8
Bankit
15-1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.


47.83
1.61/$1


091.65
12
Kershaw
20-1
De La Cruz F
D'Amato Philip
W
37.76
1.31/$1


091.23
5
Boldor
20-1
Baze T
Asmussen Steven M.


39.84
1.27/$1


091.21
10
Long Range Toddy
10-1
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Stewart Dallas


47.83
1.61/$1


090.79
13
Fight On
20-1
Vazquez R A
O'Neill Doug F.


33.33
1.26/$1


090.68
9
Home Run Trick
30-1
De La Cruz W
Martin William N.
L
33.17
1.14/$1


089.50
11
Lord Guinness
30-1
Fuentes R
Yakteen Tim


47.83
1.61/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.63, ROI 1.23/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 MALICED (ML=9/5)
#3 DARESCA (ML=3/1)


MALICED - Hamm enters this horse in a spot where she should fit well based on her last 2 speed ratings. I really like that recent outing on March 28th at Tampa Bay Downs where she ran second. This horse wins a lot of cash per start. Number one in this affair. The 61 latest race speed figure looks good in black and white. DARESCA - Expect this filly to be back of the pack early and come closing strongly. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I AM A. LURING (ML=9/2), #7 MIGHTY FROSTY (ML=6/1), #2 GLOBALPRINCESSCOCO (ML=8/1),

I AM A. LURING - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 9/2. There may be a set back today, after the bang up effort last time around the track. MIGHTY FROSTY - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of races. GLOBALPRINCESSCOCO - Awfully difficult to wager on this less than sharp equine when she hasn't been showing any gumption of late.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #8 MALICED on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 GIVEMETWENTY 3/1




# 8 DEO FORTE 12/1




# 4 YOUNG RAYMOND 6/1




GIVEMETWENTY looks to be a respectable contender. This colt has a strong win percent in turf sprint races. Has garnered formidable speed figures in turf sprint races in the past. DEO FORTE - He must be carefully examined given the formidable speed figures. Is a definite contender - given the 87 speed rating from his most recent race. YOUNG RAYMOND - Handler has solid win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be on the front end early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs



04/11/20, TAM, Race 7, 3.15 ET
04/11/20,TAM,7,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 CLAIMING. Purse $13,500. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 11 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races where entered for $20,000 or less not considered in weight allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
9
Small Hope
5-1
Wales G
Sweezey J. Kent
S
33.78
1.38/$1


098.48
10
Tetsu
8-1
Quinonez A
Silva Carlos H.


31.58
1.18/$1


098.38
11
Eric the Salesman
30-1
Mejia T B
Delgado Jose H.
TWL
30.85
1.41/$1


098.26
7
Burn the Boats
15-1
Suarez A
McKanas Leon J.


33.78
1.38/$1


097.43
6
Gambler's Fallacy
6-1
Spieth S
DiVito James P.


31.58
1.18/$1


097.29
3
Flight Deck
8-1
Garcia W A
Wright Michael W.


31.58
1.18/$1


096.35
8
On a Spree
3-1
Mena R
Arriagada Juan
FE
31.58
1.18/$1


094.81
2
Barrel of Stout
10-1
Gallardo A A
Granitz Anthony J.
JC
33.78
1.38/$1


094.80
1
Juan Pablo
6-1
Lopez J E
Harty Eoin G.


31.58
1.18/$1


093.91
5
Kitten's Boy
7/2
Centeno D
Sweezey J. Kent


31.58
1.18/$1


093.20
4
Prequalified
30-1
Frates D J
Fennessy John


30.85
1.41/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 40.00, ROI 1.08/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
3
Flight Deck
8-1
Garcia W A
Wright Michael W.
W
33.09
1.06/$1


099.43
8
On a Spree
3-1
Mena R
Arriagada Juan
FE
30.25
1.06/$1


099.05
9
Small Hope
5-1
Wales G
Sweezey J. Kent
S
42.86
1.12/$1


097.81
6
Gambler's Fallacy
6-1
Spieth S
DiVito James P.


25.45
1.15/$1


097.73
7
Burn the Boats
15-1
Suarez A
McKanas Leon J.


30.00
1.05/$1


097.43
10
Tetsu
8-1
Quinonez A
Silva Carlos H.


63.64
2.45/$1


096.83
1
Juan Pablo
6-1
Lopez J E
Harty Eoin G.


30.25
1.06/$1


096.04
5
Kitten's Boy
7/2
Centeno D
Sweezey J. Kent


30.25
1.06/$1


095.97
11
Eric the Salesman
30-1
Mejia T B
Delgado Jose H.
TL
63.64
2.45/$1


095.86
2
Barrel of Stout
10-1
Gallardo A A
Granitz Anthony J.
JC
25.45
1.15/$1


095.35
4
Prequalified
30-1
Frates D J
Fennessy John


25.45
1.15/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 41.38, ROI 1.34/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sharp Plays

Alright, Pick 3 time! I am going to go with my favorite GULFSTREAM and try...

R5: 1,9,3,5,2
R6: 7,13,11,9,3
R7: 6

$0.50 Pick 3 = $12.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy- 6-Unit Play. #207. Take Under 2.5 Goals (-114) Managua vs. Las Sabanas (Saturday @ 6pm est) (This is in the Nicaragua Primera Division Clausara). (If 2 Goals or Less are scored then it is a Winner).

We roll with the Under here as we think this is likley a low scoring game. Note, we are 3-0 with 6* Soccer Selections thus far and we have posted back to back soccer winners and look for our 4th straight 6*Winner here. As per this selection, you have to know that Managua is the top team in the league and Las Sabanas is the 9th placed team. Managua last year at one point lost to this team 4-0 and then they played them in back to back games and beat them 4-1 and 4-0 most recently. So, Las Sabanas last played Managua and got thumped 0-4 and note that this team will definitely get up to face the league leader. This is a Las Sabanas team that a while back lost to Juventus Managua 0-5 but ever since then has really shaped their defense into a much better foundation. They tied Chinandega 1-1, they tied 3rd placed Diriangen 1-1, lost to Deportivo Ocotal 0-1, beat Real Madriz in their first win in a long time 2-1 and held ART Jalapa the 6th placed team scoreless 0-0. Give this team credit for playing much better defensively and they face a Managua team that comes off a solid 2-1 win over Deportivo Ocotal but I think the difference here is that Las Sabanas is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl of sorts. They are not going to go far in the post-season and they get to face the league leader at home and they are going to show up in a big way, likley play great defense and remember their 0-4 loss last time as well. Look for this game to likely go Under the posted total today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Weir

Gulfstream Park's late Pick 4 on Saturday begins at 4:54 p.m. ET with Race 10 and ends with Race 13.

Nailed the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park the last two days, hitting for $827.65 on Thursday and $394.65 on Friday.

Gulfstream Park 10th (4:54 p.m. ET)
3 Good Credence (10-1)
Has competitive figures. The key difference is those figures were earned as a 2-year-old. With any growth or improvement, this filly could be a winner. The main concern is she was entered on Friday at a mile and scratched. The Friday race looked tougher on paper, but I'm a little concerned in the switch to six furlongs. Almost a single but definitely an "A" horse.

5 Wanderlust (9-2)
Is a little soft on Beyer Speed Figures, but this race could set up for an off-the-pace type. Her first race at Tampa Bay Downs fits this field style-wise, and that race has proven productive with three next-out winners. I'll forgive the last as she was on a fast pace and stopped. Change in tactics required.

6 Chart (4-1)
Great first race before trying the Grade 2 Davona Dale when she finished up the track. Was on the rail and was in tight most of that race. Stopped on turn and was not persevered with. Assuming there are no issues out of that last start, she's in the mix with a return to her debut race.

1 Boerne (7-2)
7 Lastchanceforlove (3-1)
Both won their debuts with wire-to-wire runs. I'm not convinced they can repeat here, but if one breaks poorly and the other clears, there is a chance. Will use both as "B" selections.

A: 3,5,6
B: 1,7

Gulfstream Park 11th (5:24 p.m. ET)
10 Battle of Blenheim (9-5)
Hard to find fault in this one. Won his last two races. The only concern might be the drop back to a $35,000 claiming race off the win, but I'm not as concerned right now with class drops. Logical win candidate.

8 Conviction Trade (15-1)
Has been running on the fringes against better. Gets a short layoff but has trained consistently over the last month. I think he fits here.

Also-eligible: 14 Souper Scat Daddy (6-1)
I don't love the post, but if he draws in from the also-eligible list he's a must-use. Has also been facing better. Runs hard every time.

4 Supreme Aura (6-1)
Has no real turf form to speak of, but it's an interesting move by a solid trainer (David Fawkes). Has turf breeding and is in good form. Claimed out of a win at essentially this level, given two months off and now returns on the turf with Paco Lopez up (trainer-jockey combo winning at 29 percent).

1 Sublime Appeal (10-1)
Horse has now run three straight solid turf races, finishing within two lengths in each. The interesting thing is he never gets bet (25-1, 13-1, and 68-1 in last three). His figures are competitive, and he should be forwardly placed from the rail. Could try to steal it.

A: 8,10,14
B: 1,4

Gulfstream Park 12th (5:54 p.m. ET)
2 J P's Delight (5-2)
Will need to be the speed of the speed in here being the closest to the rail of the speed horses. If he can hold his position, he should have more stamina as he's been racing in seven-furlong races and turns back to six furlongs. Will need to run every step of the way.

7 Heiressall (6-1)
Overmatched in her last start, losing by 11 lengths, but now gets back jockey Paco Lopez. I expect a pressing trip. She will likely have first run if the speed stops.

1 Princess Causeway (8-1)
I'm not convinced this filly can get up in time at six furlongs, but there is a chance of a total pace meltdown. She could be the one flying late.

9 Pacific Gale (7-2)
Raced at the Grade 2 and 3 levels all of last year. She did not win but was competitive for the most part. I'm not trusting her off the layoff, but she is definitely capable if she returns running.

A: 2,7
B: 1,9

Gulfstream Park 13th (6:25 p.m. ET)
9 Twenty Four Seven (3-1)
Claimed out of his last race by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., whose runners are winning at 40 percent first off the claim. Has back class and has been given some time off after a hard-fought win. Can repeat.

4 Flyoff (4-1)
Finished second to Twenty Four Seven in his comeback race two starts back. Tried harder in his last race and ran a similar figure. Could be ready for his best performance making his third start off the layoff.

1 The Queens Jules (20-1)
Has the rail and speed. Comes off a win on the dirt and moves back to turf. His turf race three starts ago could win this. If he's let go early, he could spring a surprise.

7 Bondurant (8-1)
Banging around at this level for trainer Mike Maker. Has moved to the lead in his last two starts but has been unable to finish them off. A properly timed ride might get him there.

3 King of Spades (9-2)
Probably the best closer in the race. But he has not been able to get it done at Gulfstream Park (0-for-10). He will be running late but is more likely to finish underneath.

A: 1,4,7,9
B: 3

Wagers
All-A ticket
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,7 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 1,4 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 1,9 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 3 ($9)

Total: $129

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jonathon Kinchen

Race 9 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday goes to post at 5:43 p.m. ET and offers a potentially lucrative Pick 3 that ends with Race 11.

Oaklawn Park 9th
2 Mr. Money (4-1)
Was arguably the best 3-year-old in the country at a few points last year before Maximum Security locked down the No. 1 spot. This horse's 3-year-old stablemate By My Standards came back to the races as a 4-year-old at the Fair Grounds and ran huge. I expect Mr. Money to do the same.

3 Tom's d'Etat (3-1)
This guy ran some big races last year, and he loves running fresh; he is 7-for-10 off a layoff. I expect to see his best, but I am not sure if it will be good enough to beat the A races from Mr. Money and Improbable.

14 Improbable (7-2)
The 2019 Kentucky Derby favorite, Improbable was his biggest enemy last year. Gate issues will need to be resolved, but this horse has showed some serious talent. I don't see Bob Baffert putting him on the plane to Arkansas for no reason.

A: 2,3,14
B: None

Oaklawn Park 10th
4 What a Country (8-1)
Was 18-1 against runaway winner Blackberry Wine. Was glued to the rail in that race, and that still might have been a good enough performance in a normal maiden that didn't contain Blackberry Wine. Should improve in second start.

8 Urbanite (10-1)
Was 6-1 on debut against Risen Star winner Mr. Monomoy and was far out of it and wide the entire race. I would expect him to run better in this spot. Square price.

10 Dean Martini (7-2)
Had a brutal trip into the first turn in his first start off the layoff and still almost got the job done. I expect a step forward on Saturday. Will need to work out a trip from the outside.

A: 4,8,10
B: None

Oaklawn Park 11th
12 Farmington Road (6-1)
I liked him in the Risen Star, and he had a horrible trip closing into a slow pace. I love him in this spot. Jockey Martin Garcia will need to put him in the race, and that shouldn't be too hard with the outside draw and the blinkers. The pick.

3 Mr. Big News (30-1)
His last race in the Risen Star was much better than it looked. He closed into soft pace and chased Modernist, who returned to run well in the Louisiana Derby. Big longshot.

4 Thousand Words (5-2)
I once made the prediction that this horse was guaranteed to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He is a grindy type who will run as far as they will write races. Trainer Bob Baffert is the best dirt trainer in the world. Thousand Words will run his race but will need a clean trip to win.

A: 12
B: 3,4

Wagering strategy
I usually play the late Pick 4, but I can make a case for every horse in Race 12, the last leg of the Pick 4. And I think it is lazy and a bad habit to play the Pick 4 if you don't have an opinion in either the first or last race of the sequence. So instead I will play the Pick 3, which allows me to invest more in each ticket (a $10 all-A ticket in the Pick 3 versus, say, a $2 all-A ticket in the Pick 4).

Wagers
All-A ticket
$10 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 12 ($90)

Two-A, one-B ticket
$2 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 3,4 ($36)

Total wager: $126

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Oaklawn Stakes 4/11

Other than Nifty coming in 3rd we missed the mark yesterday. Today I have 4 races for you including the Oaklawn Stakes with some very good horses. Should get to watch some of the races on FS1 and NBC Sports. Enjoy.

Gulfstream Race 1
#6 Put It On Detti $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-7-11

Gulfstream Race 10
#6 Chart $10 w/p/s

Oaklawn Race 9
#2 Mr Money $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-3-4

Oaklawn Stakes Race 11
#4 Thousand Words $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-1-12

[GetTheseDimes]

Esparza (VSI) 4* Juventus Managua (8:00 Nicaragua) -1 (line has moved up to -1.5). Best of luck as always!