Service Plays Tuesday 4/21/20

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 Rulethenight
Pace presser really woke up last time with a fast 3rd against better, drew perfectly for his style, and could offer a hint of value as well; look out.


#2 Trask
The chalk sped off early and held well to be a close 2nd last time, and has the most consistent dirt form here, but the post won't help; second-best.


#4 King of Anything
Deep closer has been facing much better and will be a threat on the drop, but his penchant for leaving too much to do late won't help; comes up short.


Race Summary
The race flow and post both work for the 6, who might be finding his form again and should get first run on the 4, after spying the ML favorite the whole way, so play him to win and place, while getting some added value by using him in both the early Pk5/Pk4, as he looks primed to back up that big run last time with another here.


Fonner Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Trapper Peak
Dangerous sort cuts back after a big two-turn run here last time, has been facing tons better in his recent sprints, and should get plenty of pace to rally into; love his chances here.


#5 Magnanimous Man
The chalk is another who has been facing better and looms the one to catch too, but there's speed on both sides, which will make things tough in the lane; may come unglued late.


#1 Senator Robert
Stalker was just up in time to beat lesser and will like the pace he can sit just off of, but this is a much tougher group, and he needs to improve several lengths; underneath, if at all.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 4 but they will bet the 5 hard so just maybe you eke out $8 or so on a runner who looks primed on the cutback, has some solid sprint form to fall back on, and should get a positive race flow as well, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the late Pk5/Pk4, since he looks poised to pull the mild surprise over what could be a heavy favorite.


Fonner Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Ornamental Iron
Expected stalker was a distant 3rd in a very fast race for the level in the slop at WRD last time and was 2nd, beaten just a neck, in slow time here at the level two-back, but today she catches a group loaded with speed, which means she'll get first run on two potentially dicey favorites; call to post the mild surpise.


#10 May Flowers
Stretch runner got run off her feet last time and therefore her flying late run came up a bit short, and it's likely she bounced off a huge win against lesser two-back as well, so with a solid run behind her at the level, and the potential to rebound, with a dream pace scenario too, she's a huge threat; may make amends.


#8 Indy N Roses
Fellow closer won last time over 'Flowers, when she was a bit closer to the hot pace and got the jump on her off the far turn, so it's obvious she's a player here, but that rival might have bounced last time, and this miss might have that happen today, as that run was far and away her best in some time; tread lightly.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 2, as the betting public might all flock to the two outside closers, but it's the pick who has some appeal, and she'll certainly be open lengths ahead of them both entering the far turn, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences, and she looks like she has every chance to pull it off.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#6 Caney's Ghost
Adds Lasix off the nice win last time out, and he should get a really good tactical run with these.


#3 Great Faces
Willing to give him a pass on the slop clunker last time out, but something like his two-back run would almost surely do the trick.


#5 Southgate
Has been in way too deep for several races in a row now, but it's also worth noting that even on the drop, his dirt route form doesn't exactly tower over the top pair. Watch the action -- I'd want better than the 2/1 ML price.


Race Summary
Caney's Ghost has some upside while adding Lasix, and the pedigree is there for him to handle the added ground here.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Betty Jean
Willing to take a shot here in a spot where the two likely chalks have some questions. She doesn't often bring the kind of effort that might win this, but she'll be a big number to find out if she's able to today.


#1 Ten Count Out
Should appreciate getting back to the main track while running off the Broberg claim.


#10 Pretty Britches
Has always done really good work locally while winning half of her eight WRD tries, and she woke up in a hurry when getting back on the familiar footing last out. That said, her huge run last out came gate-to-wire over a sloppy track and only four other horses. Overbet off the big fig? Honestly don't care for her much here.


Race Summary
Betty Jean is worth a small play at a big price in a spot where she'd need her very best stuff to score, but I'm not interested in taking likely underlaid numbers on Ten Count Out or Pretty Britches


Will Rogers Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 Fayette Warrior
Form can be a little hit or miss, so I'd want something like the 4/1 ML price, but this guy fits well here and is a serious win threat if he brings his A-game.


#6 Kansas City Zip
Recent form is probably good enough to win this on the hike, but he has found levels like this a bit tricky in the past and will surely get bet hard today.


#5 Man U
Has always done good work over the local footing, and he might fall into a really nice trip while just tracking the splits.


Race Summary
Fayette Warrior seems like a good fit with this bunch and may offer a playable number, as Kansas City Zip -- the most likely winner -- is almost sure to get bet off the board with these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#4 Diesel's Prize
Ran evenly for 4th in the 1st start of his 12-year-old season; likes the distance and can make a big run at this bottom price.


#8 Elusive Blueboy
Improved with a run for 3rd late in his last one and can be close to the pace in this one.


#10 Big Hearted Factor
Drops to the bottom price and was 3rd for $5,000 early int he season; fits well with these and can make a run.


Race Summary
Diesel's Prize is an old-timer with a knack for making up ground, is suited for 6.5 furlongs and can get up vs. these.


Fonner Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#6 Chace B a Lady
Was up in time vs. N2L compnany and has been solid in both local starts; can handle the distance.


#7 Franki D Oro
In from Sam Houston, where she was 3rd in her latest; has been with better and fits in this spot.


#8 Wacca Wacca Wacca
Was a clear winner here last time and has been a big player in two of three here; set the pace in two races at Oaklawn early in the season and could be the one to catch.


Race Summary
Chace B a Lady has taken to the Fonner track, and can be a solid front-end factor from the start; capable of staying.


Fonner Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Hard Story
Has a big fitness advantage, having raced all year at Delta and Will Rogers and should be able to be close to the lead; should be difficult to catch.


#3 Thunder Box
Had a mild rally to 4th last time and looks ready to stretch out to a mile; pedigree indicates he should be able to get the mile without a problem.


#6 Big Egypt
Rallied into 2nd and ill be tough if he can run back to that one; improves with distance.


Race Summary
Hard Story has been long several times and can reject late challengers going this distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs



Will Rogers Downs - Race 7

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) Pick 4 (.50) (Races 7-8-9-10)



Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $8,250 • Post: 4:15P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. KRIS ME DEADLY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DARING EGO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OKLAHOMA LINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CONCRETE FINISHER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. KRIS ME DEADLY: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. BIZ OPS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

DARING EGO

7/2


6/1




1

OKLAHOMA LINE

3/1


7/1




6

CONCRETE FINISHER

2/1


7/1




4

KRIS ME DEADLY

15/1


7/1




8

BIZ OPS

6/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

KRIS ME DEADLY

4


15/1

Front-runner

60


52


67.8


43.2


34.2




3

DARING EGO

3


7/2

Stalker

69


73


65.2


55.4


48.9




6

CONCRETE FINISHER

6


2/1

Stalker

64


63


63.5


54.6


50.1




1

OKLAHOMA LINE

1


3/1

Stalker

68


64


44.4


55.4


49.4




8

BIZ OPS

8


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

66


67


29.4


53.1


46.1




7

XAVTRIX

7


20/1

Trailer

53


43


28.2


41.2


26.2




2

IKON WHO

2


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

65


68


52.3


51.6


42.6




5

JERRY'S VISION

5


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

64


35


38.4


38.4


26.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park



Fonner Park - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / Daily Double / .50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)



Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 40 • Purse: $7,040 • Post: 4:00P


FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. P R GOLD MONEY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * P R GOLD MONEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SWEET COWGIRL: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MISS BLUE ROOSTER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within t he last 30 days. ZIBBY TOO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

P R GOLD MONEY

7/2


5/1




5

SWEET COWGIRL

8/1


6/1




2

MISS BLUE ROOSTER

5/2


6/1




9

ZIBBY TOO

9/2


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

SWEET COWGIRL

5


8/1

Front-runner

43


39


60.0


34.4


27.9




2

MISS BLUE ROOSTER

2


5/2

Front-runner

42


36


33.4


35.0


29.0




4

P R GOLD MONEY

4


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

46


39


26.0


34.6


29.1




9

ZIBBY TOO

9


9/2

Trailer

42


36


16.3


28.0


20.5




3

MISS JUSTICE

3


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

41


26


7.4


24.2


12.2




6

BULLS EYE BETTY

6


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


24.2


18.6


7.1




1

GET THE GLUE

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


12.0


19.4


8.9




7

FANCY ME MARIE

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


9.9


14.1


3.1




8

WILDFIRE SIS

8


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


8.8


13.3


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4500 Class Rating: 61

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 FASHION FACT 12/1




# 4 DREAMINGNDIAMONDS 4/1




# 5 EMMAS SILVER ROSE 5/2




FASHION FACT looks strong to best this group of animals especially at 12/1. Should compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this field. Has performed strongly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 53 avg speed rating. DREAMINGNDIAMONDS - Has put up strong speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. With a quite good 58 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. EMMAS SILVER ROSE - Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the front end recently. Could beat this group given the 63 Equibase Speed Figure earned in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7 - Post: 4:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,250 Class Rating: 67

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 DARING EGO (ML=7/2)
#4 KRIS ME DEADLY (ML=15/1)


DARING EGO - Faced tougher last time around the track at Will Rogers Downs. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. Tohill is right back for another contest today after getting on board this equine for the 1st attempt on April 7th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 31 to 48 to 67 in succession. KRIS ME DEADLY - A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. This jock and handler have a beneficial return on investment when they team up. Stretching a thoroughbred out to a route after two sprints is a classic training maneuver.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CONCRETE FINISHER (ML=2/1), #1 OKLAHOMA LINE (ML=3/1), #5 JERRY'S VISION (ML=6/1),

CONCRETE FINISHER - Hard to play a low class level horse like this after back to back rigorous stretch runs. OKLAHOMA LINE - You think this horse is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. Shouldn't have too much left in the tank after back to back stiff stretch runs. There may be a set back this time, after the extreme effort in the last race. JERRY'S VISION - In this situation, this entrant's inability to close any ground in the last race is definitely troubling. This gelding garnered a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 DARING EGO to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sharp Plays


Will Rogers
Race 2

$0.50 Trifecta on 1,6 over 1,3,6,7 over 1,3,4,6,7,8 (Total Bet $12)


Will Rogers
Race 6

$0.50 Trifecta on 1,4 over 1,4,2 over 1,2,3,4,5,11,12 (Total Bet $10)


Fonner Park
Race 4

$1 Pick 3 on 1,2,4,6 over 10 over 6,7,8,9 (Total Bet $16)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sharp Plays


Will Rogers

R1: 3-6-4-1-2-5
R2: 1-8-6-7-4 / 2-5-3
R3: 11-8-5-3 / 10 / 6-7-9-4-12-2-1
R4: 8-6-9-2-7-1 / 4-3 /10-5
R5: 6-5-1-3 / 2-4
R6: 4 / 2-1 / 12-11-3 / 6-7-8-5-9-10
R7: 1-3-6-5-4-7-8-2
R8: 2-10-9-1-5-12-11 / 3-8-4-6-7
R9: 6 / 2-5-4 / 7-3-1
R10: 12 / 5 / 6-7-10-2-9-1-11 / 4-3-8


Fonner

R1: 2-9-5-4 / 3-6-1-8-7
R2: 5-4-2 / 8-7-6 / 1-3-9-10
R3: 6-5-4 / 1-7-2-10-3 / 9-8
R4: 6-2-4-1 / 5-10-8 / 7-3-9
R5: 10 / 8-2-9 / 6 / 4-1-5-3-7
R6: 7-9-6-8 / 1-4 / 3-2-5
R7: 5 / 4 / 9-1-2-7-8-6-3
R8: 10-4-8-2-7 / 6-3-5-1 / 9
R9: 6-1-3-10 / 7-9-8-4 / 2-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 4/21

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:09 am
Nice one yesterday as Strong Side wins and pays $7.80, $3.40 and $2.80 across the board. Today I have two races from Will Rogers Downs. Goodluck.

Race 5
#6 Caney's Ghost $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-3-4

Race 7
#3 Daring Ego $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-8-1