Service Plays Saturday 4/25/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Saturday, April 25: My Gulfstream Park Late Pick 4 Ticket April 24, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Gulfstream Park’s late Pick 4 on Saturday is highlighted by Unbridled Stakes for 3-year-olds and a lights-out scramble for outstanding older allowance and stakes types in the 11th.. There’s a good chance few knew these two would come up so competitive.
While the Unbridled is a solid one-turn mile stakes event and the 11th is a seven-furlong test that is as good a non-stakes as you could find.

Here’s a look at my Pick 4 ticket suggestion, which uses a 3x4x4x3 approach for $72 and runs from races 9-12:

Race 9 (Unbridled Stakes)
Dr Post is as intriguing as any in here as he makes just his third career start. After a 4th at Belmont in his only start of 2019, he fired a dandy for trainer Todd Pletcher in his first at Gulfstream off a vacation of nearly nine months as he came off the pace for a maiden win in a rapid 1:22 1-5. The Quality Road colt has effortless put down some good works and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is back after some time off.
South Bend spent his last three on the turf and had good results in each, including a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes. He won the Street Sense over the dirt at Churchill last year, is in good form and will probably run on late. Attachment Rate is another in play on the ticket after his third in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. He’s finished with energy in his last three and is a legit threat.

Race 10
This distance turf race for $35,000 claimers (N3L) has so many good options that it’s difficult to trim is down to even four, which was the case here.
New Year goes after his third straight win after he was 0-of-11 to begin his career. To say he’s figured it out is an understatement, and his wins over the turf at GP were powerful. Stock Trade, Crypto Gold, Noble Hope also have run well lately and also stand a serious chance.

Race 11
This one is graded stakes-quality as Global Campaign returns to the races and is surrounded by proven runners in good form.
Global Campaign draws a decent group of opponents as he makes his first start since running third in Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, finishing behind New York stalwarts Tax and Tacitus. Prior to that he beat eventual Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston.
There is plenty of serious competition here, including Soldado, winner of three of five, and Spinoff, who ran in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, as well as the Belmont Derby. He ended his campaign with an easy win at Saratoga. Also on the ticket is the speedy Yorkton, who was second at Gulfstream last out. He often shows speed and can be very dangerous if able to get clear early.

Race 12
Maiden-claimers round out the action, and W W Archie, With a Bit of Luck and Annualized are worthy of inclusion.
W W Archie was third in his last two and has been steadily stepping down the ladder. With a Bit of Luck has raced just once, but it was against a higher level and he led for a half-mile. He was on the turf and now moves over to the main track.
Annualized drops to his lowest level and was a closing fourth on turf last time. He was third on dirt once last year.

Here’s the suggested play for the late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park:
9) #3 Dr Post, #5 South Bend, #7 Attachment Rate.
10) #3 New Year, #4 Stock Trade, #6 Crypto Gold, #7 Noble Hope.
11) #2 Soldado, #4 Spinoff, #5 Global Campaign, #9 Yorkton.
12) #7 W W Archie, #8 With a Bit of Luck, #9 Annualized.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-5-7 with 3-4-6-7 with 2-4-5-9 with 7-8-9 ($72)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park April 24, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$75,000 UNBRIDLED STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, April 25, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Seven 2020 Triple Crown nominees match up in a race named for the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner. The 1-1/16 miles Unbridled Stakes will be the first 2-turn test for 4 of the 7 aspirants. Race 9 on the 12-race card, the Unbridled kicks off the day's late pick four sequence.

​Field Depth:
SOUTH BEND is a listed stakes winner and Grade 3-placed. SOROS has the field's only other open-company listed stakes win, while RELENTLESS DANCER has won in Louisiana-bred stakes company. ATTACHMENT RATE is Grade 3-placed. RELENTLESS DANCER and SOUTH BEND have tackled the toughest competition, but there's not an overwhelming class edge here. The race is capable of being won on the class rise.

Pace:
Pace projections are tough with 4 of 7 runners stretching out from 1-turn races. RELENTLESS DANCER may be the most committed to a front-running style, but expect some of the sprinters to force the issue.

Our Eyes:
ATTACHMENT RATE caught the eye with 2 sharp rallies during the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet. The second netted a commanding maiden breaker that set him up for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. The Dale Romans trainee managed third in the Gotham behind front-running Mischievous Alex, but the Gotham's slow final quarter in 26-2/5 did not inspire confidence for additional distance. While his pedigree suggests 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns should be in his arsenal, ATTACHMENT RATE's visual clues tip me that he may be more effective as a closing sprinter. Leading jockey Luis Saez has dominated the local colony and will give him every chance to prove he's worthy of the trip.

RELENTLESS DANCER finished fourth while attending the pace over this 1-1/16 miles trip in both the G3 Holy Bull and G2 Tampa Bay Derby. The former effort came at Gulfstream against the powerful duo of eventual Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law and eventual Fountain of Youth champ Ete Indien. He should be forwardly placed toward the inside and that's advantageous over this assignment. RELENTLESS DANCER has trained well since the Tampa Bay Derby, including a Gulfstream bullet 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat on April 11.

DR POST is the X-factor, taking on stakes performers and a route distance for the first time. Todd Pletcher's well-bred Quality Road colt turned heads March 29 with a deft closing kick at 7 furlongs. His first start since July netted a massive 109 BRIS late pace figure. The 2-turn question remains the key hurdle; his mama Mary Delaney was an outstanding sprinter, winning Keeneland's Grade 2 Madision at 7 furlongs. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount as he returns to action from a self-imposed pandemic break from work.

Trainer Stan Hough has the duo of SOUTH BEND and NECKER ISLAND as separate betting interests. SOUTH BEND has been more accomplished and faced rock-solid grass sophomores like Field Pass, Vitalogy and Decorated Invader in his last 3 starts. The transition back to dirt should not be a big issue; he won the Street Sense on dirt at Churchill and was fourth in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January. NECKER ISLAND has not extended around 2 turns in 5 starts, but has a middle-distance pedigree. He's drawn nicely on the rail for this 1-1/16 miles configuration.

SOROS, winner of the 1-turn mile Smooth Air Stakes, disappointed in his 2020 return bid in allowance company March 27. The Commissioner colt did have a bit of late life in that one and may be set to improve some around 2 turns.

AMERICANUS exits a solid 7-furlong allowance victory over quality rivals Violent City and Silver Ratio. The Belmont fall debut winner was well-beaten in the Grade 3 Nashua last fall, but has run well twice at age 3 and appears to be developing the right direction for Mark Hennig. The War Front colt has not routed, but his second dam was Unbridled Lassie, third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks going long.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: SOUTH BEND is 7-for-8 in the superfecta lifetime and proven over distance and class.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: NECKER ISLAND showed more talent at 2 than he displayed so far this year. If he wakes up on the stretch-out from the rail, he could offer a nice price play in the mix.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $100 win SOUTH BEND.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, April 25: My Oaklawn Park Late Pick 4 Ticket April 23, 2020
Picks from Racing Analyst, Jonathon Van Dine

It’s another phenomenal Saturday of racing at Oaklawn Park and the day’s co-features – the $125,000 Carousel and $100,000 Bachelor – have attracted some serious racehorses. The Bachelor, which goes as Race 9, drew Bob Baffert’s superstar three-year-old Eight Rings, while Race 10, the Carousel, marks the seasonal debut of Bellafina and also attracted Steve Asmussen’s star mare, Mia Mischief.

If you’re playing the races on Xpressbet this weekend, why not check out these two great promotions?

- 1 Million Point Late Pick 4 Split (https://member.xb-online.com/Oaklawn042520Split): Hit Oaklawn’s Saturday Late Pick 4 – the one handicapped in this blog – and you’ll win a Split of 1 Million XB Rewards Points. Redeem your Points for wagering credits, past performances and more.

Pegasus Betting Championship Feeder Tournament (https://member.xb-online.com/xpressbet-tournament-april-25-2020) Put up the $500 Buy In and square off against other savvy horse players to punch your ticket to the 2021 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship (PWCBC). Tournament tracks are Gulfstream Park (all races) and Oaklawn Park (Races 8 – 11).

Here's my take on the Late Pick 4:

Race 8 (5:14PM ET) – Allowance ($62K)

Oaklawn kicks off its late pick 4 with a difficult allowance race going 6 furlongs. This race seems to revolve around #4 SNEAKING OUT. If she can revert back to her form when Hollendorfer had her in April and May of 2019 then she will be very tough to beat. She is 6-4-2-0 in one-turn races, and Hollendorfer is 25% of the layoff. However, this will be the first time she has left California and the layoff does concern me a little bit. I am going to use multiple horses in this leg starting with #1 FLAT OUT SPEED who has done nothing wrong in her first 3 starts. #5 NOMIZAR could get a very nice stalking trip in this race as there is quite a bit of speed lined up here. I will also use #8 READY TO RUNAWAY and #9 BYE BYE J to round out this first leg.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #1 FLAT OUT SPEED (12/1), #4 SNEAKING OUT (7/2), #5 NOMIZAR (9/2), #8 READY TO RUNAWAY (6/1), #9 BYE BYE J (4/1)

Race 9 (5:45PM ET) – Bachelor Stakes ($100K)

The Bachelor Stakes has a few familiar rivals once again going up against each other. #9 LONG WEEKEND was victorious over #1 LITTLE MENACE, #2 BEAU OXY, and #5 LYKAN. LONG WEEKEND was able to go right to the front, and never look back winning by more than 4 lengths in the end. It would seem to be a difficult task for any of those 3 to turn the tables here so we’ll use LONG WEEKEND and then look elsewhere. #7 EIGHT RINGS won the Grade 1 American Pharaoh by 6 before struggling in the BC Juvenile. This is obviously a much easier spot, and is a must use. I am also going to use #3 ECHO TOWN coming off a nice $90K Allowance win at Oaklawn Park.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #3 ECHO TOWN (9/2), #7 EIGHT RINGS (5/2), #9 LONG WEEKEND (3/1)

Race 10 (6:16PM ET) – Carousel Stakes ($125K)

The feature race of the day sees #1 BELLAFINA ship into Oaklawn Park to face 7 rivals. She has been installed as the 8/5 favorite, and I will be singling in this race. However, I will not be singling BELLAFINA. I am looking to the far outside in the #8 MIA MISCHIEF. She had an easy win at Oaklawn Park off the lay-off albeit against very weak competition, but that race was used to tighten her up for the Carousel Stakes. She draws favorably on the outside and should sit a very good trip. I would definitely understand going 2 deep and using BELLAFINA, but she has never really come close to winning a race outside of California. I will single here in hopes that going deep legs 1 and 4 will pay-off.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #8 MIA MISCHIEF (9/2)

Race 11: (6:47PM ET) – Maiden Special Weight ($60K)

The nightcap is a tough maiden special event, and honestly, this is race where it is tough for me to a very strong opinion. Singling Mia Mischief will afford me the ability to go deep in this leg which I most certainly will. We’ll start with #1 COPPER KING who draws the rail, but doesn’t have a lot of speed. He has shown the ability to sit mid-pack which he’ll need here. It will likely be too difficult to drop back and circle the field. #3 VIOLENT PASS went off at 9-2 against similar last time out and lost all chance at the start and then raced wide. Given the 15-1 morning line I will give this one another shot. Joel Rosario picks up the mount on #4 UNRIGHTEOUS who was overmatched in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, but obviously gets back to easier competition here and is the one to beat. #6 AZTEC EMPIRE is another logical horse to use in here after finishing 3rd in a $60K MSW last out. I will also use #9 RONAMO, #11 On d’Oro, and if the #13 SCALE draws in, he will also be included on the ticket.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #1 COPPER KING (7/2), #3 VIOLENT PASS (15/1), #4 UNRIGHTEOUS (5/2), #6 AZTEC EMPIRE (5/1), #9 RONAMO (10/1), #11 ON D'ORO (8/1), #13 SCALE (6/1) (AE)

My Ticket

Race 8: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9
Race 9: 3, 7, 9
Race 10: 8
Race 11: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13
Ticket Cost: $52.50 for 50-cents

I am looking at $52.50 for 50-cents as it stands now. If you are a big fan of Bellafina in the Carousel, then it probably wouldn’t be difficult to pare down the first leg to just two horses to allow you to include Bellafina.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 We Five
Intriguing sort had to go two turns on turf on debut and didn't do much running, but Terranova isn't a guy that cranks them too often, is 22% turf-to-dirt, and this one gets a huge jock switch to Centeno as well; thinking this may have been the plan all along.


#3 Rollick
Dangerous returnee hasn't been out in over 13 months and now goes from Clement to Stidham, but this sharp barn is 26% off extended layoffs, and 22% with newcomers to the barn, and the debut was solid, and she's another bred for the main track; very scary.


#5 Bourbon Rebellion
The best of the dirt runners didn't fire on turf last time but her debut 5th here on dirt was solid, so she'll like the surface switch, though though note initial run was at 54-1, so taking 3-1 or so here isn't all that appealing; logical contender, albeit at underlaid odds.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the 2, especially the cutback to one-turn and switch to the main track, and the price as well, not to mention the competition isn't all that tough, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, as she should be a square price, which would knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#8 Vivamente
Thomas firster goes for a barn that knows how to get them ready (14% on debut), drew the perfect outside attack post, meets two slow favorites who don't inspire in the least, and has a slew of AM works for her unveiling; look out.


#2 I'mthekatsmeow
The chalk was a well-beaten 2nd off the long break last time, so she could be tighter here, but she was also favored last time, they expected a lot, and her run was timed with a sundial, so she's got no margin for error; trying to beat.


#1 Hifalutin
Money burner was a neck behind the chalk last time, has lost at 6-1 or less in all six career starts, and her five underneath slices tells you what you need to know about desire, plus she's never gained in the stretch in any start; no thanks.


Race Summary
Tab the tote on the 8, as she has to be live and taking money against a group like this, and provided she is, you can play her aggressively to win and place, though you'll get some added value by keying her in the early Pk5/Pk4, since the two proven gals don't look like much, and yet they'll take plenty of action in both sequences.


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#10 Forevernoa
Longshot firster goes for a Hinsley barn that is just 2-for-44 on the year, but there's an abundance of AM activity on display, especially going long, young sire Constitution has proven to be very precocious, and the rest of this group don't look like much; bombs away.


#1 Recoded
The chalk will get bet hard for Wilkes, and she's best on paper, but also 0-for-5 with no upside, has a tricky rail draw, and doesn't have a lot of speed either, so sure, she's the most likely winner, but in the 7-5 range she looks like a big underlay; backwheel time.


#4 Ski Bunny
The first of two firsters for Proctor is probably the better of the two as well, since Gallardo lands here and there's three bullets in the holster, but this is a 3% debut barn, so it's unlikely she's cranked, and as a Union Rags filly, she may want longer too; tabbing today.


Race Summary
You'll get value galore on the 10, and you need to, as she's an admitted reach, but there are a few positives, and if you only have to beat the 1, then the mountain to climb isn't all that high, so give her a look in all the slots, and even to end the late Pk5/Pk4, as she could surprise, and a win would completely blow up both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#10 Katara Pass
Has no business sticking around late after chasing a fast opening quarter going long last out, but the two-back run would certainly keep him in the mix.


#1 Took a Cab
Cutback player might get a cozy go from the inside. He owns route pace and can probably stick close enough to have a shot to finish.


#2 Quick Charge
Gets blinkers on for this one, but I fear that he isn't going to finish this race with much energy as his previous BRIS Late Pace figures leave a bit to be desired.


Race Summary
Katara Pass would intrigue at something like the 6/1 ML price. I'm willing to draw a line through that last one and give him a chance here based on the two-back sprint try.


Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#11 Dark Ages
Was the runner that made the first move into a quick pace last out, and he predictably flattened out after that wide run. He's capable of getting a better trip, even with today's wide draw.


#7 Cause for Pardon
Wondering if this guy is going to get bet below fair value here while dropping in class and adding blinkers. Think he's a win threat, but demand a fair price.


#5 The Mighty Judge
Dropper wasn't off by much last time out, and the barn lures Irad to the saddle for this one. Think he's going to be tough, but potentially underlaid.


Race Summary
Dark Ages will have to work out a trip from a wide post, but his last run was better than it looks on paper given the race flow and when he moved, and perhaps a softer race shape will benefit him today.


Gulfstream Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#10 Miss Behave
Price swing only went evenly last time out, but she has since come back with an unusually quick bullet work, and she can probably step forward here at a big price.


#6 Catch a Thrill
Has never really run a bad one around one turn, and those last two Saratoga races would definitely make her a player here. She'll have to run big off the bench to handle a decent group.


#9 Miss Miami
Has been away a few months, but the turf sprint form isn't too far off what it'd take to score here. Chance to make some noise at a price.


Race Summary
#4 Smack an #7 Catharsis are the two morning line favorites, and while I suppose they could win, neither of them really does a whole lot for me on paper in this spot, and that led me to price shop for a runner like Miss Behave who doesn't have to come forward much at all. Not sure she's 20/1 here, but she's still interesting at something a bit shorter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 Eye M Smokin
Opened a clear lead and then was caught late last time out; has the speed again and will be doubly tough as he drew the rail.


#6 Petes Favorite
Drew outside in the Pauls Valley last time and takes a big class drop; was 3rd in three races leading up to his last one and fits well with these.


#7 Bubba Bad
Ran down Eye M Smokin last time out and goes for his 4th straight win; winning out of the No. 7 post won't be easy.


Race Summary
Eye M Smokin has speed and the rail and might get loose again; one to catch.


Remington Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#9 Packsaddle Senator
Was a solid 3rd in a trial in her only start and can move on to bigger and better things after this one; looks like a maiden winner.


#1 Wyngnutt
Had some trouble at the start and still ran 4th in his debut; tough with a clean trip.


#5 Dr Gold Digger
Has a pair of good works to his credit and likely will show some run in his 1st test.


Race Summary
Packsaddle Senator just missed vs. futurity trial company, drops to the maiden ranks and is the one to hold off here.


Remington Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#10 Tough to Bee
Has won more than $735,000 and comes off a 3rd in the Mr Jet Moore; ready for his 1st win in two years.


#12 Zoomn On Bye
Was a closing 2nd in a derby trial last out and could improve in his 2nd over the strip.


#9 This is a Deal Too
Had trouble in his last two but has several too starts to his credit and is a regular in stakes races; had a tough trip 1st out.


Race Summary
Tough to Bee has a class advantage and is rounding back into good form; capable of a big finish.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park



Gulfstream Park - Race 6

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8)



Optional Claiming $25,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $46,000 • Post: 3:17P


(RAIL AT 115 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CATHARSIS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highe st average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AWSUM ROAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CATCH A THRILL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



7

CATHARSIS

7/2


4/1




11

AWSUM ROAR

8/1


9/2




6

CATCH A THRILL

9/2


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

CATHARSIS

7


7/2

Front-runner

97


86


95.8


86.4


83.9




3

BYE BYE NICKY

3


6/1

Front-runner

82


83


83.8


81.8


65.8




11

AWSUM ROAR

11


8/1

Stalker

95


89


92.6


87.2


82.7




1

MALIBEAUTY

1


7/2

Stalker

80


78


73.0


73.9


61.4




4

SMACK

4


3/1

Stalker

85


77


61.2


79.4


66.9




8

SOME SAY SO

8


15/1

Alternator/Stalker

93


86


53.0


81.8


69.8




9

MISS MIAMI

9


8/1

Trailer

91


86


77.2


81.8


69.8




6

CATCH A THRILL

6


9/2

Trailer

90


87


62.0


82.7


70.2




2

HY DOLLFACE

2


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

85


88


84.8


71.0


52.5




5

TIDE STORM

5


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

85


81


80.0


75.4


58.4




10

MISS BEHAVE

10


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

87


83


59.1


78.9


68.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park



Oaklawn Park - Race 10

Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta



Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 109 • Purse: $125,000 • Post: 5:16P


CAROUSEL S. - FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $750 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $1,250 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $3,000 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START WITH $125,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 2% TO BE DIVIDED EQUALLY BETWEEN REMAINING STARTERS. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $50,000 IN 2020, ALLOWED 3 LBS.; $40,000 IN 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. CLOSED THURSDAY, APRIL 16, 2020 WITH 30 NOMINEES.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AMY'S CHALLENGE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MIDNIGHT FANTASY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BELLAFINA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MIA MISCHIEF: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. LADY SUEBEE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



6

AMY'S CHALLENGE

4/1


6/1




2

MIDNIGHT FANTASY

5/1


7/1




1

BELLAFINA

8/5


7/1




8

MIA MISCHIEF

9/2


7/1




7

LADY SUEBEE

20/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

AMY'S CHALLENGE

6


4/1

Front-runner

110


100


103.0


99.0


92.0




5

CLASSY ACT

5


15/1

Front-runner

100


93


97.6


86.8


74.8




7

LADY SUEBEE

7


20/1

Front-runner

102


95


97.4


95.2


85.7




3

SUNNY DALE

3


6/1

Stalker

95


98


101.2


91.2


81.2




2

MIDNIGHT FANTASY

2


5/1

Stalker

107


101


98.4


96.4


88.9




1

BELLAFINA

1


8/5

Stalker

108


110


88.3


102.5


94.5




4

WHAT A FOX

4


8/1

Stalker

102


95


85.8


92.2


79.2




8

MIA MISCHIEF

8


9/2

Stalker

100


106


79.2


100.0


96.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park



04/25/20, OP, Race 3, 1.37 CT
04/25/20,OP,3,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 Purse $23,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
7
North Side
2-1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.
FEL
57.14
2.14/$1


097.61
5
Connection
7/2
Rosario J
Sadler John W.
JTW
57.14
2.14/$1


094.98
1
Flexati
4-1
Birzer A
Smith Kenny P.
SC
34.94
1.32/$1


094.91
14
Preacher
6-1
Felix J E
Hollendorfer Jerry


40.38
1.56/$1


094.69
4
I Lived It
10-1
Harr K
Morse Randy L.


33.33
1.18/$1


093.04
12
Uncle Tap
8-1
Baze T
Villafranco Federico


31.62
1.11/$1


092.73
8
Da Gold Room
20-1
Bailey C
Hartman Chris A.


33.33
1.18/$1


092.66
13
Wild Tonight
15-1
Thompson T J
Litfin Nevada


31.25
1.23/$1


091.88
11
Allen's Rocket
20-1
Canchari A L
Chleborad Lynn


40.38
1.56/$1


091.45
3
Maybe a Spider
15-1
Rocco. Jr. J
Fires William H.


57.14
2.14/$1


091.32
2
My Vow Is Courage(b+)
20-1
Wales T
Rengstorf Tony


31.25
1.23/$1


090.48
6
Fearless Rocket
15-1
De La Cruz W
Martin William N.


31.62
1.11/$1


090.41
10
Special Pryce
20-1
Quinonez L S
Swearingen Thomas H.


57.14
2.14/$1


090.38
9
Knockout Bert
20-1
Eramia R E
Green Aidan


57.14
2.14/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.87, ROI 0.86/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $10700 Class Rating: 90

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 FLIGHT FORCE 5/1




# 6 PETES FAVORITE 8/1




# 1 EYE M SMOKIN 3/1




FLIGHT FORCE looks quite good to best this field. If you gander closely, this entrant has some longshot possibilities. Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. Joiner has this gelding moving well and is a very good choice based on the formidable speed figures garnered in longer quarter horse races recently. PETES FAVORITE - Is hard not to look at based on speed figures which have been formidable - 76 avg - of late. Put up a reliable speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 PIE O MY 2/1




# 8 DECOSTER 9/2




# 6 RIGGSKI 5/1




PIE O MY is my choice. Could wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the lead recently. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last race. DECOSTER - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. RIGGSKI - Is hard not to consider based on Equibase speed figs which have been quite good - 57 avg - of late. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase speed figs (50 average) at today's distance and surface recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 90

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#9 PADDY O'DINI (ML=5/1)
#1 PROFESSIONAL (ML=3/1)


PADDY O'DINI - Stalking speed. My sidekicks and I like this horse. This fine animal has a lot of class. A good sign in a grass race like we have today. PROFESSIONAL - Entered at the same class level and distance of his last win, which is a big plus for this gelding. This jock and handler's horses have been producing a positive return on investment. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier field than in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BARREL OF STOUT (ML=4/1), #4 FLIGHT DECK (ML=5/1), #11 ROSAS WAY (ML=6/1),

BARREL OF STOUT - In the last race this runner finished seventh. Doesn't look good for his chances this time out. FLIGHT DECK - Not probable that this animal will finish better than he did last time out of the box when finishing sixth. ROSAS WAY - Granted the last race was good, finishing third. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #9 PADDY O'DINI on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

9 with 1 with [2,7,12] Total Cost: $3



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

9 with 1 with [2,6,7,11,12] with [2,6,7,11,12] Total Cost: $20



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

[1,9] with [1,9] with [2,6,7,12] with [2,6,7,12] with [2,6,7,12] Total Cost: $48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



04/25/20, GP, Race 10, 5.25 ET
04/25/20,GP,10,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:01 CLAIMING. Purse $35,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 127 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since March 25 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $35,000 (Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth) (Rail at 115 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
6
Crypto Gold
4-1
Saez L
Maker Michael J.
FC
40.43
1.47/$1


099.64
7
Noble Hope
6-1
Vasquez M A
Pino Michael V.
TSE
31.39
1.37/$1


098.90
4
Stock Trade
7/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Mott William I.
JW
31.39
1.37/$1


096.47
10
Vegas Kitten
3-1
Davis D
Maker Michael J.


31.39
1.37/$1


094.65
3
New Year
9/2
Gonzalez S
Rodriguez Juan Andres


31.39
1.37/$1


093.62
9
Seeking Revenge
15-1
Juarez N
Stephens John D.


31.39
1.37/$1


093.59
2
Go Away
10-1
Zayas E J
Plesa. Jr. Edward


31.39
1.37/$1


091.26
5
Maryland Pride
12-1
Panici L
Campitelli Jessica J.


31.39
1.37/$1


090.55
1
Aequor
6-1
Reyes L R
Gonzalez Oscar M.
L
31.39
1.37/$1


090.49
8
Kingsville
15-1
Lebron V
Dobles Elizabeth L.


31.39
1.37/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 18.60, ROI 0.63/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
6
Crypto Gold
4-1
Saez L
Maker Michael J.
FC
29.24
1.19/$1


099.34
4
Stock Trade
7/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Mott William I.
JW
29.24
1.19/$1


099.32
7
Noble Hope
6-1
Vasquez M A
Pino Michael V.
SE
29.24
1.19/$1


097.00
10
Vegas Kitten
3-1
Davis D
Maker Michael J.


33.77
1.10/$1


094.86
2
Go Away
10-1
Zayas E J
Plesa. Jr. Edward


29.24
1.19/$1


094.04
3
New Year
9/2
Gonzalez S
Rodriguez Juan Andres


29.24
1.19/$1


093.31
5
Maryland Pride
12-1
Panici L
Campitelli Jessica J.


29.24
1.19/$1


092.61
9
Seeking Revenge
15-1
Juarez N
Stephens John D.


29.24
1.19/$1


091.90
1
Aequor
6-1
Reyes L R
Gonzalez Oscar M.
L
29.24
1.19/$1


091.02
8
Kingsville
15-1
Lebron V
Dobles Elizabeth L.


29.24
1.19/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 32.80, ROI 1.14/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
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1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 2: #8 to WIN


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 7: #10 to WIN


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 1: #10 to WIN


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Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 6: #5 to WIN


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Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 9: #3 to WIN


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Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 6: #8 to WIN


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 3: #4 to WIN


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Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 5: #11 to WIN


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VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 6: #8 to WIN


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 1: #7 to WIN


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 7: #7 to WIN


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 10: #10 to WIN


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 4: #10 to WIN


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East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 3: #4 to WIN


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Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 3: #9 to WIN


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Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 2: #10 to WIN


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Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 8: #8 to WIN


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VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 9: #4 to WIN


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South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 5: #8 to WIN


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Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Tampa Bay Downs Race 7: #6 to WIN


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NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 2: #12 to WIN


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Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
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HORSES – Remington Park Race 8: #5 to WIN


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National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 9: #5 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/25/20 April 25, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, April 25, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-R Ninja J K; 5-Imperial Guard; 7-Bychance; 10-Katara Pass

Forecast: The Saturday opener, a difficult bottom-rung maiden $12,500 five furlong sprint for older horses to begin with, is even more treacherous now that it has been taken off the turf due to overnight rains. We’ll use four in our rolling exotics but nothing would surprise us, so spread as deeply as you can afford to. R Ninja J K is a fresh face with credentials to run well in his debut, so we’ll make an educated guess and put him on top, Finally making it to the post at age four, the son of Uncaptured clearly has had problems but surfaces cheap and may have some natural talent that most of the others don’t. The high-percentage G. Baxter barn has excellent stats from a brief sample with first-time starters and employs the stable’s go-to rider E. Jaramillo following a series of “not bad” workouts that should have him plenty fit. If he can run at all, this field should be within his capabilities. Bychance makes a positive trainer change while dropping to his lowest level ever. He’s shown nothing by cheap speed so far, but against this group for new connections the son of Bernardini may have found his friends. Imperial Guard is another class dropper that might snap to life in this league. The lightly-raced son of Point of Entry earned a speed figure last year that would beat this field, and in his second start off a layoff he has a right to produce a forward move. However, this will be his first try on any surface other than grass, so who knows what we’ll get?Katara Prince has a number two races back on grass that puts him in the hunt and also shows the route-to-sprint angle. His one dirt race – his debut – wasn’t terrible and he could be a late threat, so toss him in somewhere.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Vickythebest; 9-Midnight Gem; 10-Lemon Scat

Forecast: Here’s another messy affair, now a one-turn main track miler for $12,500 claiming 3-year-old fillies that was originally scheduled for turf. Midnight Gem stretches out a couple of furlongs after closing with interest in a recent sprint in which she finished a closing third while finding her best stride too late. This trip would seem ideal for her style. She’s a first-off-the-claim for a barn seeking its first win of the year, but the recent work tab is healthy so we’re expecting a forward move, one that could be good enough to win. Vickythebest sports the blinkers off angle that we like, drops below her claim level, and could find herself as the controlling speed. She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but at least they’re heading in the right direction, and her main track form looks okay in this context. Lemon Scat is another trying one turn and the main track for the first time. She lands the cozy outside draw but has no early speed, so if she’s going to have a say in the matter it’ll likely be from well off the pace.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Ominous; 9-Storm the Bridge; 10-Lanse Mitan

Forecast: Storm the Bridge ran well in his debut at this level last month when a solid runner-up but was pitched too high when flashing speed and then fading vs. maiden $20,000 foes on grass 15 days later. Today he returns to the bottom rung ($12,500) while switching back to the main track, and the speed figure he earned two races back under these conditions is better than par for this level. He’s 9/2 on the morning line and is worth a close look at that price if you can get it. The likely choice and one to beat is Lanse Mitan, drawn comfortably outside and certain to inherit and good pace-prompting position. Runner-up in a maiden $25,000 affair at Tampa Bay Downs last month, the son of More Than Ready drops for the money run, switches to L. Saez, and is the morning line choice at 9/5. Ominous finally makes it to the post at age five and clearly has had his issues along the way. The son of Scat Daddy must leave cleanly from the rail, but his work tab isn’t bad, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Mystical Moon; 5-The Mighty Judge; 7-Cause for Pardon; 9-Peacock Kitten

Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $12,500 older horses meet over a mile on grass and is yet another challenging affair that requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play. The Mighty Judge may be the one to beat with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. A closing fourth over this course and distance last time out, he drops a notch in price, lands a better post, has back speed figures good enough to win a race in this league and owns a prior victory over the course. With good racing luck he might be able to the tag the leaders late. Peacock Kitten was used up on the pace last time out at even money and faded but will perform better today in this easier spot if held up with cover and produced late. Very much a fit based on numbers, the lightly-raced 5-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy switches to E. Zayas and should get the trip he needs. Mystical Moon is another late runner with a look if things break his way. First or second in his last three outings, the B. Lynch-trained gelding projects to draft into a good second flight early position and be dangerous when asked for his run. Based strictly on numbers he’s a major player. Cause for Pardon is re-equipped with blinkers – his best form always has been when wearing the hood – and this sharp drop in class from $25,000 to $12,500 along with the switch to L. Saez makes him worth using on your ticket. The son of Creative Cause lacks a good turn of foot but if he can find himself fairly close to the early pace and then grind away, he’ll have his best chance.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Fugitive; 4-Ashiham

Forecast: Ashiham displayed some real promise in his debut, lacking early speed but then finishing with some purpose to be a closing fourth in a fast, highly-rated six furlong sprint that was simply too short for him. A grandson of the remarkable race mare Azeri, this good-looking chestnut colt has trained very nicely since that race, gets an extra furlong to work with, and seems certain to produce a substantial forward move in his first start since joining the T. Pletcher barn. With the switch to L. Saez, the son of Tapit looks extremely live and well-meant at 9/2 on the morning line. Basquiat, a son of American Pharoah from the C. Brown barn, makes his debut following a string of promising drills over the deep Payson Park track and looks very much like a live item with I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call. He actually flashed some promise last summer at Saratoga in the a.m. but never made it to the races, but we suspect he’ll be cranked up and ready to roll today. We’ll prefer Ashiham on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Smack; 11-Awsum Roar

Forecast: Smack was in a perfect position heading for home in her last start – saving ground right behind the leaders, ready to pounce - but when she was asked to produce her run, she was shut off badly trying to rally through a hole that didn’t exist, lost all chance, and wound up fifth. Hopefully, the daughter of Super Saver will have clear sailing today and if she does under new rider E. Jaramillo, the C. Clement-trained filly seems capable of handling this first-level allowance turf sprint field of fillies and mares. Worth using as a saver or a back-up is course specialist Awsum Roar, drawn farther out than we’d prefer but certainly capable of acting at this level with her best effort. A winner of six of 12 starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course, she should fold into a good stalking position and then have every chance to kick it in late. On pure numbers she’s better than her morning line of 8-1.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mystery Bank; 4-Venezuelan Hug; 5-Shamrocket

Forecast: Maiden 3-year-olds get together in a middle distance turf event that has at least three legitimate contenders. Shamrocket probably can’t beat a real good colt but it takes a pretty good one to beat him. A closing third against the grain over this course last time out, the son of Tonalist gets a better draw today and figures to settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have a little less work to do than what was required in his most recent outing. His numbers are steadily rising and with I. Ortiz, Jr. back aboard, the C. Clement-trained colt is a deserving favorite at 9/5 on the morning line. Mystery Bank likely is the controlling speed from his inside draw and given that type of trip he should take this field a long way. Third when facing $50,000 winners last time out while earning a figure that makes him competitive in this spot, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained colt retains E. Jaramillo and is a dangerous at 4-1 on the morning line. Venezuelan Hug, first off a D. Gargan $40,000 claim and therefore eligible to move up a ton for barn that has a superb record with this angle, picks up L. Saez and will be rolling late. With some help up front, the son of Constitution could make some serious noise in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-War Giant; 8-Legit

Forecast: Legit was a major prospect two years ago, winning his debut by more than seven lengths over this main track and then demolishing a first-level allowance over a sloppy surface at Pimlico during Preakness week. Off for 22 months, he returned in an extended sprint at Aqueduct last month, and after getting eliminated at the start with a poor break, produced an extended run to finish a strong third before galloping out strongly in a highly-rated race. With that effort behind, the son of Curlin should be ready to stretch out and win for T. Pletcher, and we’re expecting I. Ortiz, Jr. to have him a long in time, though his outside draw and the short stretch run to the finish line at this mile and one-sixteenth trip are problematic. Horse-for-course specialist War Giant has won four of seven over the local main track and seems sure to employ gate-to-wire tactics from his favorable rail draw. A first-time gelding coming off a facile score in a first-level allowance event, the son of Data Link has winning connections and seems a tad better than his morning line of 6-1. We’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver, but the main push goes to Legit.
*
*
RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 3-Dr. Post

Forecast: Dr Post was a highly impressive recent maiden winner in his first start since his debut last summer while earning a monster figure and gives every indication that he’ll get nothing but better with distance and experience. The T. Pletcher-trained son of Quality Road stretches out to a middle distance from a comfortable draw and should have enough early speed to secure a favorable position and then kick home when given his cue. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go a bit lower, he’s a logical rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 10: Post 5:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-New Year; 6-Crypto Gold; 7-Noble Home

Forecast: Crypto Gold was a pleasing winner of a $20,000 nw-2 event over this course and distance 15 days ago and returns on short rest to the $35,000 nw-3 level for a barn that likes to strike when the iron is hot. The son of Medaglia d’Oro took a long time to break his maiden but appears to have figured things out and the speed figure he just earned was a career top, one that makes him the one to beat once again despite the class hike. L. Saez stays aboard and will have this M. Maker-trained gelding doing his best work from the quarter pole home. New Year broke his maiden in his 12th career start, came back and won a $20,000 nw-2, and now moves up in class with his new found confidence. He’s actually a good fit on speed figures so despite low profile connections he’s worth including in rolling exotic play. Noble Hope, a $25,000 M. Pino claim last month, moves up a level today following a clever win and could continue to improve for his new connections. He’s a bit shy in the speed figure department of what will be needed to win this race, but the son of Noble Mission is a progressive sort and may offer a bit of value at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 11: Post 5:57 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Soldado; 5-Global Campaign; 9-Yorkton

Forecast: This is strong third-level allowance main track extended sprint with a nice mixture of up-and-comers colliding with a few proven stakes winners. Soldado is lightly raced, improving, fast on figures and the likely choice and one to beat. The T. Pletcher-trained son of Verrazano has won three of four lifetime starts over the Gulfstream Park main track including his last two, and he has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong trip. Based on the projected race flow (slow early), Yorkton has a chance to gain control from his outside draw and never look back. The son of Speightstown, second to the talented Vekoma over this track and distance last time out, moves over to the G. Motion barn, and as a winner of seven career races the veteran gelding knows what to do when conditions are in his favor. Global Campaign launches as comeback and if he returns as well as he left he’ll be very competitive. The winner of the Peter Pan S.-G3 last year before finishing a good third in the Jim Dandy S.-G2, the son of Curlin won his debut over this track and distance so you know he can sprint and fire fresh. However, the work tab is light and the barn may be using this race simply as a launching pad, so we’ll use him only as a back-up while keeping a close eye on his performance for future reference.
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RACE 12: Post 6:29 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-W W Archie; 9-Annualized

Forecast: The finale is another bottom-rung maiden $12,500 claiming sprint, a split of today’s third race. We’ll use two but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go for it. Annualized was scratched yesterday out of a turf sprint for this main track affair and if he can duplicate his last speed figure on this surface the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained gelding should be able to outrun this group. I. Ortiz, Jr. takes the call and we anticipate that he’ll have this son of Union Rags along in time. W W Archie is quicker than his main rival but a bit suspect under pressure in the final furlong. Third in his last pair but with moderate numbers, he drops to his lowest level and makes major rider switch to L. Saez. This turn back to six furlongs won’t hurt, either.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Saturday Horse Picks 4/24

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:49 am
River Finn comes in second but that is all we got yesterday as we missed the other two. Today there are some good races, including The Unbridled at Gulfstream. Good luck.

Gulfstream Race 1
#5 Imperial Guard $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-7-3

Gulfstream Race 9
#6 Soros $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-7-3

Oaklawn Race 9
#9 Long Weekend $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-7-1

Oaklawn Race 10
#1 Bellafina $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 1-8-3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Esports-Betting-Tips
(http://esports-betting-tips.net)
Vodafone Giants - Ago Rogue : 1 @ 1.45 (LEAGUE OF LEGENDS European Masters (Europe))
REPA - Vivo Keyd : 2 @ 1.25 (LEAGUE OF LEGENDS Circuito Brasileiro de League of Legends (Brazil))

Total Odds : 1.81 @ bet365

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Oaklawn Park Wagering Strategies - 4/25/20 April 25, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Oaklawn Park
Saturday, April 25, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.


RACE 1: Post 12:35 CT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Implicator

Forecast: An excellent Saturday program (good racing, huge fields) begins with a two-turn maiden affair for older horses that offers what probably will be a short price favorite in Implicator. Improving with every outing according to his speed figures and getting back on fast ground, the son of Race Day likes to lag and produce a late run and with a healthy race and workout pattern plus a good inside draw the R. Moquett-trained gelding seems likely to produce another forward move. There should be ample pace to compliment his late running style, so with good racing luck he’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:06 CT. Grade: C
Use: 6-Esposito; 7-River Echo

Forecast: River Echo was a voided $50,000 claim last December and then disappeared. He turned for $6,250, so he’s clearly walking on eggs but if the J. Hollendorfer-trained gelding has one good one left – and the work tab looks pretty good - he’ll beat this bottom-rung field, but that’s a huge “if.” The low percentage J. E. Felix – a jockey this barn has no history of using – takes the call. Esposito, dropping off a $10,000 claim by R. Diodoro, makes his first start for a trainer that hits at a remarkable 31% with this angle, understandably so because of aggressive placements like this. A winner of two of his last three, most recently with a speed figure that is much stronger than par for this level, the veteran son of Ghostzapper switches to the stable’s go-to rider D. Cohen and is much more likely to reproduce his form than River Echo. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Esposito on top in a race that probably should be treated with caution.
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RACE 3: Post 1:37 CT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Flexati; 7-North Side

Forecast: North Side seems fairly solid in this maiden $30,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds after finishing second in a slightly tougher spot as the favorite over a sloppy track last month. The son of Into Mischief, originally a $320,000 Saratoga yearling, obviously is being culled from the stable – if you want him, you can have him – but against this group the S. Asmussen-trained colt shouldn’t have much difficulty earning his diploma. However, at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he won’t be offering much wagering value. Rolling exotic players may also take a look at Flexati, nosed out while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a recent maiden $25,000 sprint over this track and distance while earning a speed figure that is fairly competitive with North Side. However, low percentage connections (and the rail) hardly inspire confidence, so he’s probably not worth much more than a ticket or two as a back-up.
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RACE 4: Post 2:08 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Hardly a Secret; 6-Street to Indy; 8-Hunka Burning Love

Forecast: The fourth race is a bit of scramble for conditioned $32,000 middle distance claimers. We’ll try to get by using three. Street to Indy recently failed to make the course when eased over a sloppy track he clearly couldn’t handle, but on today’s fast ground the son of Street Sense seems likely to return to good form. He earned a giant speed figure when beating first-level allowance foes three races back and is logically spotted while returning to the claiming ranks for the first time since a $25,000 score at Fresno last fall. He’s got the type of tactical speed to be forwardly placed behind whatever pace materializes. Hardly a Secret fits the conditions just right and is fresh from a game win with a solid speed figure in an open $35,000 seller last month. A 10-time career winner (three of which have been earned at Oaklawn Park), the veteran son of Creative Cause is drawn nicely inside and projects to secure a good second flight, ground-saving journey. Hunka Burning Love returns in two weeks after being pitched too high in an optional $50,000 claimer over a sloppy track. Actually, his fifth place finish and the speed figure he earned wasn’t bad at all, so with this drop in class the I. Mason-trained gelding has a good chance to significantly improve. He’s been unplaced in three prior outings over the local main track, but one was a sprint and the other two came over wet tracks, so we’re not going to worry about it.
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RACE 5: Post 2:39 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Silver Ride; 6-Town Champ; 10-Pat Daddy

Forecast: Here’s a salty $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Town Champ just won a first-level allowance sprint over this track and distance 16 days ago with a career-top speed figure (and one that is much better than par for this level), so this drop in class following a hot win is a bit concerning. The Speightstown gelding obviously has issues – he’s a six-year-old with only eight career starts - but it is fair to point out that he remains above his claim level ($20,000), so perhaps the S. Asmusssen barn has no illusions about the future and is simply running him where he can win. Pat Daddy is razor sharp as well, having trounced a restricted $32,000 field here just nine days ago with a good stalking trip and strong late kick. The N. McKnight-trained gelding has won 11 races from 50 career starts and clearly loves the local main track with four wins, a second and a third in six starts. Silver Ride must avoid trouble from the rail but he’s fast enough on numbers to be worrisome. This significant (though justified) class drop could help wake up the Candy Ride gelding.
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RACE 6: Post 3:10 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Drena’s Star; 3-St. Joe Bay

Forecast: This is another contentious sprint, a three-other-than optional claimer that we’ll try get past using only two. Allow yourself to spread deeper if you feel the need. West Coast shipper St. Joe Bay has never had much luck over the Oaklawn Park main track but he’s a graded stakes winner this year and remains above his claim level, so we’ll give the J. Sadler-trained gelding a very slight edge on top. With the switch to J. Rosario and in a field with plenty of speed, the J. Sadler-trained gelding might find himself situated either in a pace-pressing position or in a stalker’s slot from just off the early heat. At this level, he’s a strong threat regardless of the race flow. Drena’s Star is getting quite ambitious today after winning a pair of starter allowance sprints when facing much softer foes after being claimed for $12,500 in February. He has a good pressing style, numbers that fit, and is relatively fresh, though his rail post is no bargain. We’ll use him a on a ticket or two while preferring St. Joe Bay on top.
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RACE 7: Post 3:42 CT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Federal Case; 7-Candy Store; 11-Jungle Warfare

Forecast: Here’s another spread race with a number of possibilities. Truthfully, we could include half the field in our rolling exotics and still get knocked out. Candy Store missed in the mud when favored in a $50,000 starter’s event earlier this month but he returns to his claim level today ($40,000), retains J. Talamo, and should draft into an ideal second flight trip and then have his chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. He’s 9/2 on the morning line and really shouldn’t go any lower. Federal Case was out-footed when sprinting vs. second-level allowance foes in his local debut in February but seems likely to improve stretching out and dropping in class. Graded stakes placed in his younger days, the A. Stall, Jr.-trained gelding has been facing tougher than she’s seeing today, so we’re expecting to see sufficient improvement to make him dangerous. Jungle Warfare has never been keen on winning but he’s a fit on numbers and goes for the always-potent J. Sadler/J. Rosario barn. At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss him in, poor outside draw notwithstanding.
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RACE 8: Post 4:14 CT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Sneaking Out

Forecast: Sneaking Out, away since last summer but training like she’s ready to return in peak form, is eligible to this second level allowance race even though she’s a two-time stakes winner and Grade-2 placed (her state-bred performances aren’t considered for eligibility). Back in the J. Hollendorfer barn, the California-bred daughter of Indian Evening is more than fast enough on numbers to beat this field and lands J. Rosario, so at 7/2 on the morning she looks like the play of the day (hint, you won’t get 7/2). She can win on the lead or from a stalking position so race shape really won’t matter much. We’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:45 CT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Echo Town; 7-Eight Rings; 9-Long Weekend

Forecast: Any one of the three listed above are capable of winning this sprint stakes for 3-year-olds, but clearly, as a Grade-1 winner, Eight Rings is the one to beat, especially based on his work pattern that suggests he’s fit and ready for a barn that is borderline unbeatable with its West Coast shippers. The son of Empire Maker won his Del Mar debut as a 2-year-old with a sensational performance and speed figure so we know he can fire fresh, and with J. Rosario hopping aboard for the first time this talented seems likely to go lower than his morning line of 5/2. That said, the other two major players in here are pretty salty. Long Weekend was a crushing winner with huge number in the Gazebo Stakes last month and lands the cozy outside draw that will allow J. Talamo to pop and go as the potential controlling speed. The son of Majesticperfection is clearly tackling a much tougher group today but if he clears without pressure he may never look back. Echo Town probably is worth including as well, at least as a saver. The Speightstown colt does his best running from off the pace and if faster than expected early fractions materialize, he could cause some serious damage late.
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RACE 10: Post 5:16 CT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Bellafina; 8-Mia Mischief

Forecast: Bellafina is the 8/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the listed Carousel Stakes for older sprinting fillies and mares. Yes, she looks like the best filly in the field, and anything close to her superb runner-up effort to Covfefe in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint-G1 (she was almost eight clear of the rest) wins this race, but the daughter of Quality has a history of failing as the public choice (four times) and most recently was worn down at 3/5 in the La Brea S.-G1 in last December. Furthermore, she’s never run well following a ship (four times). Yet, her recent drills indicate she’s lost none of her speed, so despite the rail we’ll put her on top, but not single her. Mia Mischief should have plenty of pace to set things up for her lack kick and will likely enjoy a clear run from her ideal outside draw. She’s not nearly as fast on figures as Bellafina based on her recent races but if there’s a meltdown she could be there to pick up the pieces.
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RACE 11: Post 5:47 CT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Unrighteous

Forecast: Unrighteous appears to be an obvious rolling exotic single and seems certain to go lower than his generous morning line of 5/2. The T. Pletcher-trained colt picks up J. Rosario in this maiden special weight two-turner after finishing seventh when clearly overmatched in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his most recent race. Before that, the son of Violence was a strong second in a much tougher, highly-rated straight maiden two-turner at Gulfstream Park while five clear of the rest and anything close to that effort today earns him a diploma. We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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