Service Plays Tuesday 4/28/20

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 Muzz'em
Pace presser gets a big coup at the draw today, as last time she was inside fellow rival Feels Right and tired behind her to be 3rd, but today she can do the dictating, which might be all she needs to turn the tables; call to post the mild surprise.


#2 Feels Right
ML favorite got the better of the pick last time and will be a big threat here too, but today she takes all the worst of it, and with just over a length to spare on 'Muzz last time, there's obviously little margin for error, at a shorter price too; second-best.


#5 Aunt Gayle
Stalker will benefit from the expected pace tussle between the top pair and keeping local ace Olesniak won't hurt either, but that bomb job behind the leading duo last time-when favored-with no visible excuse, leaves a very bad taste; mixed signals.


Race Summary
That 7-2 ML on the pick seems very fair, as she really looks like she's getting all the best of it here, so play her aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by using her to kick off the early Pk5, as this post means she's got a huge chance to reverse the decision over the 2 from last time.


Fonner Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 Scotia Queen
MSW dropper runs the risk of being a lifetime maiden with a few more losses, as she's 12-0-3-3, but this is a seismic drop, she showed high speed at the top level last time, meets a weak crew, and as they say, water always finds it's level; looks way too good for these.


#7 Justice Jean
Price player showed marked improvement off the break and trainer change last time, and she too exits the MSW ranks, and now, second-off the long layoff, she should improve again, so while she's not in the pick's league, she can add some value underneath; exotics appeal.


#10 Itybityquikasakity
Tricky read is another who comes out of a pair of MSW runs, and the 2nd two-back makes her a huge threat here, but she was awful last time, which makes the big prior finish look more and more like an aberration, and today she draws poorly as well; tread very lightly here.


Race Summary
You're not seeing the 3-1 ML, as she looks more like 7-5, so make an aggressive win and place bet if you see north of that number, though you can get some added value by singling her in the early Pk5/Pk4, as well as kicking off the late Pk5 as well, since she looks like she lays over this field based on her last two runs, which came against much better.


Fonner Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#6 Ubetcha Ima Bumper
Stalker looked good winning at the level with a real wakeup run on the drop last time, should trip out nicely just off the speed, and likely won't even be favored; can double up.


#2 Judge On the Run
ML favorite has been facing better in her last three, and running big in two of them, but there's no value here, and note she was neck ahead of the pick three-back; second-best.


#1 Ms Zibby
Dropper has been in with open claimers, so she may wake up with these NE-bred gals, especially since she was in the photo with the top-2 three-back; price players will land here.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 6 but she may be in the 3-1 range, which seems more than fair off her breakthrough win last time, especially since she has already shown she can run with the 2, so play her to win and place, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add a bit of value, and she looks poised to fire another big shot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#8 Bug Zapper
Took some cash in the debut run, and he tracked the pace nicely that day before tiring a bit late. Guessing he can build on that effort and bring something competitive here.


#9 November Mike
Fell short last out when bet to 3/5, so let the price dictate the play. He's the one to beat, but there is enough in here to merit a much better number on him today.


#2 Dramacide
Just missed at 26/1 last time out, and the price will get much shorter this time around. He can win this, but he's also no sure thing to run right back to that big effort that sort of came out of nowhere.


Race Summary
Bug Zapper showed enough tactical pace in the debut to think he'll get a good go of it today, and he has turned in a solid work since that first trip to post.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Vangilder
Outran his 9/1 price when nearly scoring in the GIII Super Derby, and he's a really good fit with these if he can bring anything similar to that.


#9 Gato Guapo
Figures to bounce back after a somewhat flat run in a quick race last time out, and he should be able to get a decent, forward trip from this draw.


#2 Drifting West
Was heading in the right direction late in the 2019 campaign, and he may not have cared for the off going in that comeback race when ignored at 52/1. Thinking he can wake up at a price if he gets dry land today.


Race Summary
Vangilder nearly won a Grade III when last seen, and though he'll need to fire fresh, he races for a barn that does well with these types. Would be more than attractive at anything like the 6/1 ML offering.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Shannon C
Doesn't always bring his best stuff, but he does own some past tries that would give Welder a run for his money. Legit chance as the likely second choice.


#2 Welder
He'd become a millionaire with a win today, and he has won nine of his 10 local starts, including a seven+ length win in this race last year. He'll be a prohibitive price, and though he always bounces back off a dull race with time to recover, this is the start of his 7yo season, so it's the right time to make him prove that he's just as good as ever.


#5 Fly to the Bank
Forward player can be in the mix for an underneath share in this one, and he does own a very mild rating gear that might serve him well today.


Race Summary
Welder is the clear one to beat, but it's worth making him beat you off the bench after a dull race as he enters his 7yo campaign. Shannon C will be in the mix early and has a ceiling high enough to score if the chalk doesn't come back 100%.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#3 Chase B a Lady
Led for a half-mile and faded late going longer turns back to 4 furlongs, a distance at which she secured her last win. Has hot rider in Martinez and hot trainer in Black.


#1 Fancy Stockings
Has not shown a lot of endurance on most occasions but going this distance should be dangerous on the front end.


#2 Mucho Super Girl
Pressed every step going 6 furlongs in her last two and should welcome the return to this distance; in the hunt.


Race Summary
Chase B a Lady has been distance challenged and a return to a short sprint should help; rider Martinez in a groove.


Fonner Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Alexandrias Throne
Caught flat-footed and showed no speed, but rallied from 10th to 4th, and should be rolling late with the additional distance.


#3 Witt Seven
Pressed the pace going a mile in her 1st one here and gets back to a shorter distance; can be a factor at this level.


#5 Frigid
Beat N2L two back and was a credible 3rd going longer last time; turns back to 6.5 furlongs and can be very tough today. Rider Wood and trainer Mitchell hitting 25 percent together over the past week.


Race Summary
Alexandrias Throne can be a strong player late if she gets out of the gate in good order; Bryan McNeil returns aboard, which should help her chances.


Fonner Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Country Summer
Drops to 6.5 furlongs after running evenly going longer; can get a good pace in front of him and can rally well vs. this group.


#5 Smokin B
Was 2nd in two of his last three, including his 1st over this strip; makes his 2nd start for Jondle barn after coming out of the Diodoro stable.


#8 Ohtani
Ran evenly last out and showed improvement from his 1st local effort; can make a run here.


Race Summary
Country Summer can benefit from turning back in distance and can show a solid rally at this distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 9

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double



Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $55,000 • Post: 5:15P


TRAO CLASSIC SPRINT S. - FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED COLTS AND GELDINGS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NOMINATIONS CLOSE FRIDAY, APRIL 17, 2020. NO NOMINATION FEE. $250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. STARTERS TO PAY ADDITIONAL $250 WITH $55,000 GUARANTEED - $20,000 FROM WRD PURSE ACCOUNT, $25,000 FROM TRAO (MUST BE A MEMBER OF THE TRAO TO BE ELIGIBLE), $5,000 FROM OKLAHOMA-BRED PROGRAM AND $5,000 FROM OBF BREEDERS AWARDS. $50,000 OF THE $55,000 GUARANTEED MONEY WILL BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. OKLAHOMA-BRED MONEY TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, AND 3% TO THIRD. WEIGHTS: THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 TWICE IN 2019-20 ALLOWED 3 LBS.; OF $30,000 ONCE IN 2019-20, 6 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY USUAL TIME OF ENTRY. THIS RACE WILL BE LIMITED TO 12 STARTERS. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED ACCORDING TO THE SCALE OF WEIGHTS, THEN BY MONEY EARNED IN 2019-20. A SUITABLE AWARD WILL





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WELDER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf ) is at least 50. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHANNON C: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

WELDER

2/5


2/1




7

SHANNON C

5/1


9/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

SHANNON C

7


5/1

Front-runner

95


82


105.0


89.4


85.9




5

FLY TO THE BANK

5


15/1

Front-runner

95


85


81.7


74.8


64.3




2

WELDER

2


2/5

Stalker

112


109


81.6


105.6


100.1




3

CRIMINAL

3


20/1

Stalker

85


85


59.0


73.8


59.8




6

ROCKPORT KAT

6


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

91


74


56.2


79.2


72.2




1

GOSPEL CHEROKEY

1


20/1

Trailer

102


83


46.5


75.4


67.9




8

EUROWEST

8


20/1

Trailer

86


74


41.0


70.8


59.8




4

TIMELY REPLY

4


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

97


93


40.5


72.8


61.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27500 Class Rating: 105

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2019 - 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $30,000 SUCH A RACE ONCE IN 2019 - 2020 ALLOWED 6 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 GATO GUAPO 5/2




# 10 OVERZEALOUS 10/1




# 2 DRIFTING WEST 12/1




GATO GUAPO is my choice. Overall the speed figures of this racer look respectable in this outing. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this gelding. Diodoro has him trained quite well to break swiftly out of the gate. OVERZEALOUS - With a formidable rider who has won at a very good 28 percent clip over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. Always seems to be right there at the wire. DRIFTING WEST - Recently Offolter has provided bettors with a strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt route races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fonner Park - Race #8 - Post: 7:09pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,700 Class Rating: 77

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 OHTANI (ML=6/1)


OHTANI - Olesiak comes to race after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Just missed hitting the board on April 7th at Fonner Park. With pretty decent odds in this event, he has my interest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SMOKIN B (ML=5/2), #9 PANIC BUTTON (ML=4/1), #7 DA VAN GEAUX (ML=5/1),

SMOKIN B - Recent declining speed ratings of 68/60/52 give an indication that this horse may be going off form. Not a value play to back the public's top choice when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. When checking today's class figure, he will have to record a better rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. PANIC BUTTON - Tough to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Doubtful that the speed rating he notched on Apr 15th will hold up in this contest. DA VAN GEAUX - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance races in order to play him. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced equine.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 OHTANI to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

8 with [4,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4500 Class Rating: 69

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 THREE FOOTER 2/1




# 4 THUNDER BOX 7/2




# 3 THIRD DIMENSION 10/1




THREE FOOTER figures to be the bet in here. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this pony look strong in this competition. Martinez's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this racer a solid contender. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group. THUNDER BOX - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look strong in this race. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. THIRD DIMENSION - Mitchell has one of the best winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Looks strong versus this field and will probably be one of the early speedsters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 4/28

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:15 am
Brew Casa came in 2nd but Lady Orchid did nothing yesterday. Today I have three races from Will Rogers Downs featuring a Stakes race in the 9th. Stay Safe

Race 1
#7 Fresh One $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-2-9

Race 8
#9 Gato Guapo $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-4-7

Race 9
#6 Rockport Cat $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-2-7