Service Plays Thursday 4/30/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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Baseball
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College Basketball
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NBA
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NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 Limentini
Pletcher charge basically ran around the track and passed a few late after a slow beginning in his MSW debut, but it came in a very fast race for the level, the barn is 32% with this type of drop, and 22% with second-time maidens, so you have to think it's go-time today; look out.


#4 Gatto Marrone
Intriguing Breen firster has a slew of encouraging AM drills showing for an 18% debut barn, is certainly bred to fire on turf, as dad Big Brown freaked on the surface in his carer bow, drew perfectly, and figures to offer a big number on the toteboard too; could blow up your exotics.


#11 Cardiac Kid
Dicey ML favorite did beat the pick last time, but only by 2 3/4 lengths, and the upside of that runner, coupled with the bar post of this one, can negate that in a hurry, not to mention he's been stuck in place in his five MSW starts, so there's not much upside here; tread very lightly.


Race Summary
There's a good chance the 8 is favored here, but it shouldn't be too heavy, and one can surmise this was the plan all along, for an ace barn that excels with this type of move, so play him aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, which getting some added value by keying him to kick off the early Pk5, since he looks primed to lay down a race the rest of these simply won't be able to handle.


Gulfstream Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#2 Cloudbased
Tampa invader surely needed his last off the extended break, now also goes second-time Lasix and blinkers as well, drew perfectly, has a world of upside off just three starts, and should be a solid price too; expecting a breakthrough run.


#7 Winning Factor
The clear horse to beat is also getting close to becoming a lifetime maiden, as he's 11-0-3-2, so sure, those big figures make him look great, and the slight class drop will help too, he's impossible to trust; making him prove it.


#11 Beach Traffic
Heavy hitter was less than a length behind the chalk last time, with a bit of stretch trouble to boot, so he's clearly big threat here, but the wide draw, as well as the underlaid price, just don't entice; limiting his use to underneath only.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the 2, most notably his upside and expected improvement second-off a long layoff, not to mention the combined 0-for-20 record for the two favorites, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, since he's moving forward here, which isn't a guarantee for his two main rivals, which will go a long way in leveling the playing field.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#2 Midnight Soiree
Stalker was a distant but clear 2nd off the break against slightly better last time, should be sitting off what looks like a hot and contested pace, and the 38-1 last time should ensure she's a playable price today; call from close range.


#1 I'll Take the Cake
Class riser looked good winning a Claiming Crown stakes off the Joseph claim, and while the waters get a bit deeper here, she's another who should be tracking the pace, and she won't have to improve much to double up; huge chance.


#5 Bella Ciao
Logical contender was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the pick, in her last, and getting Irad back will help, and note he put her in the game early two-back, so she too is a player here, though at what figures to be an underlaid price; in the mix.


Race Summary
The price, post, and pace all seem to work for the 2, who tipped her hand last time and offers no reason to think she can't build off that run in her second start back, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 too, since this is a deep field, and there are a few others who will attract more attention, which means a win in the $10 range might play a bit longer in both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Oaklawn Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Lewys Vaporizer
Will need to bounce back after the fading run last out, but he drops for this one and catches a field that might not be overflowing with early pace. He's probably quickest early from the inside anyway and looks like the one to beat.


#7 Big League
Finished ahead of the top choice when they met last time out, so he's another who can be in the mix late. Tactical pace should give his rider a couple options for where to place him.


#3 Doc Curlin
Fell short as the 4/5 chalk last time out, but he's a good fit with this group if he can hold his form off the claim away from Diodoro.


Race Summary
Lewys Vaporizer does his best work on the front end, so his last race was pretty much over before it started. Guessing he finds the front from the fence today and never looks back on the drop.


Oaklawn Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#7 Honorable Memory
Has enough pace to find a good spot near the top in a race without a ton of other serious early speed. Price will be right for top connections while heading into this first dirt route.


#10 Shazzy B
Quick enough to find the front if they want, and I'm guessing they will. First run out of the Cox barn makes this one dangerous with her early speed while catching a pretty positive race shape.


#1 Cherokee Maiden
Probably has to hustle just a touch from the inside for position, but she's a pretty reliable type who figures to run her race again. Whether that's good enough to score here after falling short at 1/1 and 9/5 in recent starts -- that's your call depending on the price at post time.


Race Summary
Honorable Memory is a mid-ranged price player out of the Asmussen barn, and she has the early speed to get herself in the mix out of the gate in a spot where the right trip should make the difference.


Oaklawn Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Beach Flower
Might get a decent pace to kick at in this second start off the break, and though her form can be inconsistent, she has some upside off the comeback run and might be able to outkick these late.


#1 Vault
Moves into the Cox barn off a trio of Mid-Atlantic wins, and she's got tactical pace to secure position heading into the first turn. The slight one to beat?


#7 Fighting Mad
Baffert is lethal at Oaklawn and this filly has run a couple of races that'd put her right in the mix with these. Overbet?


Race Summary
Beach Flower will be the right kind of price to take a shot here, as she can come running from midpack behind the pace, and she has some back running lines that offer intrigue with this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#4 One Famous Painter
Debuted in a trial and never threatened, finishing mid-pack keeps Ramirez and should be able to improve on his 1st effort as he drops to a maiden-claiming event.


#9 Jc Finest
Broke well and settled for 3rd in her debut and can make a impact on this one as she steps up slightly in class.


#6 Countryfried Chicken
Gets Flores for his debut, which is a good sign; has some moderate works for his 1st.


Race Summary
One Famous Painter tried some company in his debut and should excel in his drop in class.


Remington Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Might B Jesse
Was favored in both starts and has a 2nd and 4th to his credit; lands in a maiden score vs. state-breds and has an excellent chance at success.


#8 Kiss Me in the Snow
Lost a photo in her only start and would not be a surprise here; expect another good effort.


#5 Mh Apollitical Spy
Was in the mix throughout and finished a solid 2nd in his debut, which came in a trial; fits well with these.


Race Summary
Might B Jesse has had his share of support in his two races and came up just a little short; can be a strong player in his 3rd attempt.


Remington Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Doing What I Like
Usually breaks well and comes out a fast races at a higher level; drops to his lowest level and can score here.


#5 Jettin Jesse James
Just missed last time and takes a step up in class; has some good local starts to his credit and could be formidable in this spot.


#4 Some Value
Had a troubled trip vs. a higher level last time out, which was his 1st since November; capable of improvement on the drop.


Race Summary
Doing What I Like has kept stronger company and can move up on this class drop; seeks a return to the good form he had last fall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Maiden Claiming $6,250 • 550 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 45 • Purse: $8,300 • Post: 7:18P


QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FAT WAGON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SPYDASHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaste r Power Rating. THREE EYED BARBRA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

FAT WAGON

3/1


3/1




6

SPYDASHING

8/1


3/1




4

THREE EYED BARBRA

20/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

GO PAINT NOW

1


6/1

Slow

0


0


7.2


0.0


0.0




2

TAMS DANCER

2


20/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0




3

FAT WAGON

3


3/1

Slow

62


44


6.9


0.0


0.0




4

THREE EYED BARBRA

4


20/1

Slow

59


31


6.8


0.0


0.0




5

DASHIN PYC

5


10/1

Slow

0


0


8.5


0.0


0.0




6

SPYDASHING

6


8/1

Average

58


53


4.8


0.0


0.0




8

VF DONT TALE ON ME

8


5/1

Slow

0


0


6.8


0.0


0.0




9

JOSEPH DREAMER

9


20/1

Slow

0


0


7.4


0.0


0.0




10

LOTA EXCESS

10


4/1

Average

0


0


4.9


0.0


0.0























Unknown Running Style: TINLEYS WAGON (12/1) [Jockey: Camacho Kevin Jesus - Trainer: Sanders Gregg A].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park



Oaklawn Park - Race 7

Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)



Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 4:06P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * THE GREAT DANSKY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (di rt or turf) is at least 50. SACRED OATH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SECRET BISCUIT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. REELFOOT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). RULING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.



12

THE GREAT DANSKY

6/1


5/1




8

SACRED OATH

4/1


5/1




5

SECRET BISCUIT

10/1


8/1




4

REELFOOT

9/2


9/1




9

RULING

15/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




9

RULING

9


15/1

Front-runner

83


77


94.8


73.0


63.5




11

POLLY'S BROTHER

11


15/1

Front-runner

68


58


68.3


55.0


29.5




3

FLIGHT BOSS

3


15/1

Front-runner

69


48


50.9


36.0


8.5




12

THE GREAT DANSKY

12


6/1

Stalker

83


93


81.7


79.8


74.8




5

SECRET BISCUIT

5


10/1

Stalker

80


82


80.2


82.4


74.9




4

REELFOOT

4


9/2

Stalker

84


87


77.2


79.2


65.7




1

FLASH OF SILVER

1


5/1

Stalker

80


76


70.1


77.2


63.7




2

KNIGHT COMMANDER

2


10/1

Stalker

84


77


68.8


74.6


55.6




7

THE BIG BLUFF

7


8/1

Trailer

77


76


49.0


65.0


50.0




14

WOOPIGSOOIE

14


8/1

Trailer

74


71


48.3


67.3


47.8




8

SACRED OATH

8


4/1

Trailer

83


96


46.1


85.5


81.0




13

NASHVEGAS

13


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

66


72


84.1


57.5


37.5




6

SHACKLEFORD'S JOY

6


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

91


89


53.3


51.4


35.9




10

GUM TREE LANE

10


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

91


85


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



04/30/20, GP, Race 5, 3.13 ET
04/30/20,GP,5,7F [Dirt] 1:20:01 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 127 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since March 30 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
3
Miz Chaplin
4-1
Saez L
Matier Sandra
JFEWL
40.26
1.41/$1


097.06
5
My Sebastiana
20-1
Vasquez M A
Duco Luis


35.58
1.16/$1


096.75
1
Papa's Little Girl
9/2
Maragh R
Garoffalo Jose
C
38.38
1.33/$1


096.70
4
Bimini
5/2
Jaramillo E
Alvarado Juan
T
35.58
1.16/$1


095.53
6
Shes One Mad Momma
15-1
Berrios H I
Cuito Marcelo


38.38
1.33/$1


095.38
2
Charge Account
8-1
Zayas E J
Condie Kendall


40.26
1.41/$1


093.75
7
Janet B Doesit All
6-1
Torres C A
Dwoskin Steven
S
38.38
1.33/$1


090.75
8
Mystic Nile
7/2
Fuentes M
De Paulo Michael P.


35.58
1.16/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.90, ROI 1.19/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Oaklawn Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,200 Class Rating: 61

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 BOO BE RIGHT (ML=3/1)
#2 JAMES'S MOONSHINE (ML=7/2)


BOO BE RIGHT - Have to give this colt a good shot. Ran a solid effort in the last race within the last 30 days. Just check out his recent figure, 65. That one fits in this bunch. JAMES'S MOONSHINE - Was in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race at Oaklawn Park last time out. That affair had an Equibase class figure of 67 and he is moving down in this race. A certain contender. This horse didn't run well in the mud in his last start at Oaklawn Park. You should discount that showing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RICH ICON (ML=9/2), #12 EXPLOSIVE SHOES (ML=5/1), #14 BLACKS FERRY ROAD (ML=6/1),

RICH ICON - Not easy to play this steed in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint race before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs. EXPLOSIVE SHOES - No good results for this steed in a short distance event over the last 60 days tells me that this gelding is in a tough spot BLACKS FERRY ROAD - Today's affair is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the best of omens.

http://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BOO BE RIGHT - Registering a speed figure of 47 two back and then following up with a rating of 65 last race on March 7th, this colt is ready to do some damage.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #7 BOO BE RIGHT to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/2 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 MANE ATTRACTION 10/1




# 9 FUDDLED (IRE) 2/1




# 2 AVUNCULAR 8/1




MANE ATTRACTION looks to be a very strong contender particularly if the morning line of 10/1 holds. Keep this filly in your exotics as Fuentes has given backers some double digit profits. Is a definite contender - given the 85 speed figure from her most recent race. FUDDLED (IRE) - Might best this field here, showing very good figures of late. Might wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. AVUNCULAR - Clement has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. Her 67 average has this filly with among the best Speed Figures for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $12300 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 EYE M YOUR FAVORITE 10/1




# 1 WILLIE BIG BUX 2/1




# 6 WEEPAINTEDASIGN 20/1




I have to consider EYE M YOUR FAVORITE in this contest especially at such a decent 10/1. The speed figure of 76 from her last contest looks very strong in here. She has to be considered given the formidable speed figures. This animal must be played at the expected big odds. WILLIE BIG BUX - Has performed very well recently in short races, posting a nifty 73 avg Equibase Speed Figure. Flores will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in this race. WEEPAINTEDASIGN - Is a key contender - given the 67 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 4/30

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:45 am
Nice hit yesterday with Kalu who wins the 4th at Tampa Bay Downs. We lost the other two races. Today I have two from Gulfstream and one from Oaklawn. Goodluck and stay safe.

Gulfstream Race 1
#1 Abdaa $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 1-11-8

Gulfstream Race 8
#10 Fast Magic $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 10-9-7

Oaklawn Race 6
#6 Gordy Florida $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/30/20 April 30, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Thursday, April 30, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Abdaa; 4-Gatto Marrone; 8-Limetini; 11-Cardiac Kid

Forecast: Abdaa didn’t run badly in his debut, stalking the pace and then staying on reasonably well to finish fourth in a similar two-turn maiden claimer. In that race he displayed tactical speed, so from his favorable draw should find himself forwardly placed throughout, perhaps even in front. The barn has a very good record from a limited sample with second-timers so this son of Animal Kingdom can be expected to produce a forward move and be a major player in an open affair. At 9/2 on the morning line, we’ll put him slightly on top. Cardiac Kid and Limetini exit the same maiden-special-weight turf event earlier this month and both are being dropped sharply into the maiden $25,000 ranks while trying to find their proper level. ‘Kid ran better than Limetini in that race but the latter was making his first start and therefore has more room to improve. Gatto Marrone is a first-timer by Big Brown with a decent series of drills from a barn that does well with debut runners. In a field in which there clearly are no world beaters and at 15-1 on the morning, he’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Special Inclusion; 2-Missing Link; 3-Sunshine City

Forecast: Maiden 2-year-olds entered to be claimed for $25,000 meet at four-and-one-furlongs with Sunshine City certainly destined to receive plenty of play primarily because of her connections (I. Ortiz, Jr./W. Ward). The daughter of Creative Cause didn’t look like anything special in a pair of recent turf breezes, which explains why she’s starting off cheap, and at 7/5 on the morning line she’ll offer little wagering value. But if it’s not her, then who? Missing Link is bred to win early (Kantharos) and shows a couple of three furlong drills over this main track that don’t look too bad. While Special Inclusion has three slow gate works on her resume but hails from a barn that can get them fit without tipping them off in the a.m. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that probably is otherwise best left alone
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:09 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Monmouth Dr; 9-Uncle Curly

Forecast: Monmouth Dr plummets to the bottom $6,250 level and returns to dirt while being reunited with I. Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard the Stay Thirsty gelding when he finished a strong runner-up over this track and distance two runs back in a performance that is good enough to beat this field. But at even money on the morning line, there’s not much we can do with him. Uncle Curly is comfortably drawn outside and has several back speed figures that are considerably stronger than par for this level, but all were accomplished on grass. In his only prior dirt race, the son of Curlin finished a distant fourth in an off-the-grass straight maiden affair in November of 2018. On the positive side, his only career race around one turn resulted in a New York-bred maiden special weight win at Belmont Park last summer. Toss him in at 10-1 on the morning line.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:41 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Farm Strong; 7-Winning Factor; 11-Beach Traffic

Forecast: Here’s a modest maiden $16,000 claimer on grass that presents little to work with. Winning Factor is an 11-race maiden but at least he’s hit the board in four of his last five starts and has numbers that are better than par for this maiden $16,000 level, so we’re expecting he’ll graduate eventually, maybe even today. He’s a one-paced grinder that should be able to settle into a forward position and not have too much ground to have to make up. R. Maragh knows him well and stays aboard. Beach Traffic, fourth in the same race Winning Factor just finished third in (they were a half-length apart) is hung out in the 11-hole but may be able to get over and secure a decent stalking spot. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the Cross Traffic gelding must be considered a contender. Farm Strong has no early speed but can provide a little bit of a late kick and with some help up front could be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but not with any real degree of confidence.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Miz Chaplin; 4-Bimini; 8-Mystic Nile

Forecast: Bimini nosedives to the restricted (nw-3) $16,000 level and on pure numbers is more than good enough to win in this league. The class drop really doesn’t bother us – at this stage of her career this is probably where she belongs – and the work tab looks steady and healthy for a barn that has done very well in recent weeks. She can be tough on the lead or from a second flight position, so at 5/2 on the morning line the daughter of Brethren is clearly the one to beat. Miz Chaplin seeks her third straight win while moving up from the much softer $12,500 nw-2 league after winning with something left last month. Claimed in her last pair and now in the S. Matier barn, the daughter of Rattlesnake Bridge must negotiate an extra furlong today but if she can shake loose and relax early she may be able to get the trip. However, based on her speed figures she’ll really need to improve to worry our top pick. Mystic Nile is tad light on numbers but was a closing fourth in a $20,000 six furlong dash earlier this month and should appreciate today’s extra furlong. Considering her low profile connections you’d probably want a bit more than her morning line at 7/2 but we’ll include on a ticket or two as a back-up.
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RACE 6: Post 3:45 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Coin the Phrase; 9-Fuddled

Forecast: Coin the Phrase has been knocking on the door with gradually rising speed figures and should be in the battle every step of the way again in this five furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. She’s the quickest in the field, exits a productive race, switches to L. Saez, and shows a healthy work tab for her first start in nearly two months. At 9/2 on the morning line she offers a chance at a bit of a price. Fuddled represents the best of the closers after rallying strongly to be a close third in a promising debut last month over this course and distance. On pure numbers, she’s considerably faster than Coin the Phrase and has room for more upside, so at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’s the logical favorite and clearly the one to beat.
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RACE 7: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bean Counter; 3-Augusta Moon

Forecast: Bean Counter seems fairly solid in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares after finishing second with a career top speed figure in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. She has a good stalking style, a favorable inside draw, and retains L. Saez. It all adds up solid favoritism at 8/5 on the morning line for the T.Pletcher/L. Saez team. August Moon, in the frame in her last three starts with rising speed figures, exits a pair of starter’s allowance races and is properly spotted while remaining above her claim level. You could make a case that with one career win combined seven seconds and thirds she lacks a winning punch, but she’ll be in a good second flight position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press with Bean Counter on top.
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RACE 8: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Legal Deal; 7-Chill Haze; 8-Bourbon Street

Forecast: Bourbon Street, runner-up in his last pair vs. similar maiden $50,000 foes, earned a career top speed figure in a strong race for the level last time out and may be ready to earn his diploma in his fifth career start. The Curlin gelding gets off the rail and should be on or near the lead throughout under L. Saez. Chili Haze is solid on numbers with a good stalking style, and if Bourbon Street is unable to find more under pressure in the final furlong, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained will have every chance to pick him up. Price players should take a look at Legal Deal, away for almost a year after debuting in a maiden special weight juvenile sprint as the favorite here last May. The Khozan gelding didn’t show much in that race, but he returns as a first-time gelding with a brief (but somewhat sneaky) work tab and could have easily returned in a much cheaper maiden claimer without anybody batting an eye, so maybe he’s better than shown. At 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Ghostly Beauty; 2-Sister Otoole; 8-Yolanda’s Pride

Forecast: This a competitive affair with three main players and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Yolanda’s Pride is in good form with improving numbers and is well-placed in this first-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. The main concern is that she was beaten a neck vs. similar with a good stalking trip last time out and both of her wins were accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion. There are other front-running types drawn inside her today, so the S. Klesaris-trained daughter of Prospective may have to work a bit to become the controlling speed, and if she can’t make the top she may be susceptible to the closing kick of Ghostly Beauty, who finished a half-length behind ‘Pride in their common race earlier this month. ‘Beauty, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail post and any help up front she can get will promote her chances. It may be significant that L. Saez jumps off ‘Beauty to remain aboard Sister Otoole, who he rode to a clever state-bred maiden win over this course and distance last month. The G. Motion-trained filly is much slower on pure numbers than both ‘Pride and Beauty but she’s only had three starts and is clearly headed in the right direction. At 6-1 on the morning line, you have to include her.
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RACE 10: Post 5:49 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Crown and Sugar; 7-Cuddle Kitten

Forecast: Today’s feature race is a second-level main track miler for fillies and mares. Cuddle Kitten, claimed for $62,500 by H. Alter, is a veteran mare who does her best work on the front end. In her first start for new connections she shows up carrying a $50,000 tag off a two and one-half month layoff while switching to the barn’s “go-to” rider E. Zayas and on paper clearly looks like the controlling speed. Now six year old and with nine career wins on her resume, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should have every chance to regain her winning form and provide the barn with its first victory over the year. Crown the Sugar is better than her morning line of 10-1 based on her strong and consistent grass form, but this will be her first career outing on dirt. Based on pedigree she shouldn’t have any issue with the switch in surface but she still has to go out and show it. She loves to stalk and pounce and with L. Saez riding for a high percentage outfit the daughter of Crown of Thorns is a “must use.”
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RACE 11: Post 6:19 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Proquestor; 6-Preacher Marsee; 8-Spinning Kitten

Forecast: The finale is a low level restricted (nw-2) middle distance claimer with little to trust. Use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Preacher Marsee, first off the claim for A. Sano (excellent stats with this angle) returns at the same level after finishing a close fourth as the favorite and retains L. Saez. The lightly-raced son of Bernardini didn’t get the best of trips but finished willingly once clear and should run at least as well if not a bit better today, so we’ll put him slightly on top. Spinning Kitten, third in the same race Preacher Marsee exits, ran well for this low percentage jockey in that race and should be somewhere in the fray again. Proquestor exits a pair of tougher starter’s allowance races and has numbers that fit. However, the connections don’t inspire confidence and this veteran gelding is just one-for-24 in his career. It’s that kind of race.
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