Service Plays Monday 5/4/20

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Mr. Witt
MSW dropper really improved in his local bow, should only build off that on the class plunge, and meets a modest crew; look out.


#3 Sleepy Turtle
The horse to catch and beat will be in front, and he hits hard, but he's given up clear late leads in his last two; tires late again.


#7 Talk Big Money
Logical sort has the figures to play with these and is a threat, but at 0-for-12 he's mighty tough to trust on top; underneath only.


Race Summary
The MSW drop is a big one, and the race the 6 just ran was as good as anything here, so while you're not sniffing that 8-1 ML, even half that would be fair in this field, so play him in all the slots, while getting some added value by using him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks primed to build on his encouraging local debut.


Fonner Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 Sweet Cowgirl
The speed had to duel last time, never got a breather, and was 3rd to today's chalk, but only a length behind, and the pace isn't nearly as problematic today; come catch the pick.


#8 Zibby Too
Aforementioned chalk closed to be a good 2nd last time over the pick, keeps local ace Olesiak, and will be rolling late, but the race flow won't help her style; second-best again.


#6 Miss Blue Rooster
Logical sort was favored over the top pair last time and laid a dud, but the distant 2nd two-back would work, though at 0-for-11 there's no upside here; using underneath, if at all.


Race Summary
Pace makes the race and this time there's no one to keep the 1 honest early, which means she won't have to work as hard, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will likely be singling the chalk, even though she might be left with a bit too much to do in the lane this time around.


Fonner Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#10 I Cal Shotgun
Heavy hitter may have regressed a bit last time after a very big win two-back, and note he had a bit of trouble too, so with a clean outside run, and the bounce behind him, he looks poised to return to his winning ways; look out.


#9 Born Force
Stretch runner was a distant 2nd in a good race for the level last time, and has overall been in solid form, but he has no early speed whatsoever, which will leave him with a lot to do off the far turn; runs out ground in the lane.


#4 I'm Lucky
Dangerous sort beat the pick last time, and is another who was involved in a bit of the trouble that ensued, but that run came from nowhere, so he may do the bounding today, not to mention the 24-1 is long gone; mixed signals here.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 10 but you'll get a lot better than the 6-5 he was last time, and you're allowed to expect a better effort too, so if he's in the 3-1 range you can play him to win and place, though you can get some built-in value by keying him to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since his best shot should beat this field, and after getting the toe stub out of the way last time, he should be able to return to it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#8 Blame It On Jr
Not sure if he moved up because of the muddy going or because of the route trip, but that was a nice comeback effort, and showing similar pace here would keep him in the mix early in a spot without a ton of serious early burn.


#2 Empty Nestr
Looks like the other main forward player here, and something like the two-back run would likely get the job done here if he gets back to it after the modest sprint try.


#6 Agitator
Tough to toss an Oaklawn shipper for Broberg, but his form isn't all that appealing when stacked up against the rest in here. Not impossible, but not for me.


Race Summary
Blame It On Jr ran really well in the comeback try off the long layoff, and if he has any room to move forward off that try, he has a right to be tough here from close range.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Instigated
Gets some major class relief out of a special weight spot at Oaklawn, and he's got enough pace to get himself in the frame early. Getting tough to trust after nine starts, but he's never seen a group like this.


#8 Royally
Offered only a mild finish last out, but he'll stretch out with Giant's Causeway on the bottom side of his pedigree, so there's a chance he appreciates the added ground.


#9 Just Ask Joel
Tough to split this guy and #6 Litany for the underneath spots, but Joel should get a really nice pressing trip off the speed, and something like his last keeps him in the mix.


Race Summary
Instigated should be able to work out a pretty nice trip with these, and I'll try to get Royally in the picture somewhere at a price to spice things up.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#8 Momma's Baby Boy
Should be in line for another nice, tactical trip today, and a repeat of that last run might be good enough to do the trick today.


#4 Potomac
Impossible read. He has been way up the track at 3/2 and 2/1 in his last two tries, but he also ran several races last year that would probably win this by eight lengths. No chance we're getting the kind of price I'd need to jump in and hope he bounces back.


#7 March West
Has stretched out nicely in recent runs, but he's got about two lengths to turn on the top choice. The good news is he has only started three times and bring a bullet work to this, so there may be enough upside to do just that. Include.


Race Summary
Momma's Baby Boy can trip out with this bunch, and she's bringing reliable form into this with her while Potomac might be an all-or-nothing proposition at an underlaid price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 Behold de Flame
Has excellent early speed and looks like a natural at this short distance; was in front of some decent runners at Remington and can rise to the occasion in his 1st since December.


#7 Friend of Dubai
Pressed the pace and tired to 3rd going 6 furlongs and can keep up early here.


#8 Fashion Fact
Won going this distance early in the year and most recently was runner-up; can be a serious part of this from the outset.


Race Summary
Behold de Flame has the speed to get to the front and should benefit from taking the shortest way home.


Fonner Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Alexandrias Throne
Faltered late for 4th last time out and turns back to 6 furlongs; can stay in contact early and should be able to finish well here.


#8 Wacca Wacca Wacca
Ran very well in her last two and was 3rd in a three-horse photo last out; has the speed to be a strong player from the start.


#3 Terri's Temper
Clsoed well and just missed last out; a repeat effort will make her tough again.


Race Summary
Alexandrias Throne is capable being in the mix from the start of this one and should be able to dig in.


Fonner Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 College Party
Was impressive in wins in his last two and can get to the lead here; has been able to finish the job and can do so here.


#9 Langs Legend
Was 2nd in his last two races, which were both accomplished fast times; capable of a big effort here.


#4 Hyperbolizer
Was three in front going this short distance last time and can hang in for a piece.


Race Summary
College Party was ultra sharp in his last two and has the speed to grind it out vs. other speed types; has made winning a habit lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 2

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) .50 Pick 4 (Races 2-5)



Claiming $3,500 • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $4,400 • Post: 4:27P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500. RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HOLIDAY CLOVER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FRIGIDISH: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. TAYLOR'S BEAUTY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



6

HOLIDAY CLOVER

5/2


9/2




5

FRIGIDISH

10/1


5/1




4

TAYLOR'S BEAUTY

3/1


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

HOLIDAY CLOVER

6


5/2

Front-runner

75


63


73.8


63.4


58.9




1

TEMPLE CITY DARLIN

1


8/1

Front-runner

64


61


73.4


38.2


25.7




5

FRIGIDISH

5


10/1

Front-runner

76


76


70.5


64.4


58.4




4

TAYLOR'S BEAUTY

4


3/1

Front-runner

70


65


62.8


57.4


51.9




2

PEARL OFTHE HARBOR

2


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

63


64


56.0


57.8


45.8




3

JAFMIL'S INFERNO

3


7/2

Alternator/Stalker

74


60


29.3


51.0


46.0




7

MISS ELLIE'S GIRL

7


6/1

Alternator/Non-contender

70


68


16.6


45.0


35.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Will Rogers Downs - Race #1 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,580 Class Rating: 58

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 MIDNIGHT DRAMA (ML=8/1)


MIDNIGHT DRAMA - Eikleberry and Bravo perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +25 ROI for a jockey and handler. It's a big plus that this first timer has been working over the same track that he makes his debut at today. The trainer here (Bravo) has a very good ROI with first timers. Bravo, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix right here. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 POPPY'S OATS (ML=3/1), #8 REBEL RUMBLE (ML=7/2), #6 GOSPEL MOTOVATION (ML=4/1),

POPPY'S OATS - This animal doesn't have a winner's make-up. Time-and-again finishes in the place and show hole. REBEL RUMBLE - Hard to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the risk. No success for this steed in a short distance race over the last couple of months tells me that this gelding is in a difficult spot GOSPEL MOTOVATION - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with M/L odds of 4/1. No speed in this race to help this stretch-runner's chances. This mount likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't play in the top spot.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 MIDNIGHT DRAMA is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8580 Class Rating: 59

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 BUG ZAPPER 8/5




# 5 LITTLE BUBS 12/1




# 3 I'M A STAR 5/1




I think BUG ZAPPER is a competitive choice. Vaunts solid speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Bravo has one of the top winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. With Eikleberry in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early in this race. LITTLE BUBS - Don't let this colt slip past you. Could prove victorious at a juicy mutuel. This group is much softer than the last one he was up against. I'M A STAR - Overall, this trainer has been money-making at this distance/surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4500 Class Rating: 66

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 FRIEND OF DUBAI 5/2




# 5 WITTS LUCKY SHOES 12/1




# 1 SUPERSERG 6/1




I've got to go with FRIEND OF DUBAI. Gonzalez has this gelding running well and is a quite good pick based on the strong speed figs recorded in sprint races recently. Shows evidence of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 59 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. With a strong ROI of +6 this trainer has shown respectable results with entries running at this distance and surface. WITTS LUCKY SHOES - Has performed strongly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 59 avg Equibase Speed Figure. SUPERSERG - Could beat this group of horses given the 66 speed figure earned in his last outing. Overall the speed figures of this animal look very good in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/4

Mon May 04, 2020 7:46 am
Complete Surprise ran a pretty solid race but finished 5th. We did get two 3rd place finishes from Crystalina and Estilo Talentsoso. Here is two from Will Rogers. Good luck.

Race 3
#7 Casino Queen $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-2-1

Race 8
#9 Just Ask Joel $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-6-2