Service Plays Tuesday 5/5/20

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#2 Want to Be Cowboy
Exciting prospect absolutely romped on debut, meets a weak cast of proven winners with just one to fear, and has a world of upside for potent connections; could be a state-bred star.


#5 Mr. Big Shot
Aforementioned one to fear cruised in his MSW win then was a distant 2nd in a state-bred stakes, so he has an experience edge on the pick, but talent usually outweighs that; second-best.


#7 Creeds Revenge
The best of the rest was a distant 3rd while facing winners last time, so he could improve, but even so, that's not getting him to the level the top pair figure to hit today; underneath only.


Race Summary
You aren't sniffing that 3-1 ML on the pick, but with the 5 taking money he might be 9-5 or 2-1, and taking $6 doesn't seem so bad when you view him off that debut, so play him aggressively to win and place if the tote allows, though you can get some real value by singling him in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as there's no doubt 'Big Shot will be played on a lot of tickets, which means singling the pick will allow for a lot more leverage in the deeper surrounding legs.


Fonner Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 Go West Indy
Price player likely regressed last time off such a big 3rd two-back, but still ran a solid 3rd, should be able to move forward with that behind him, and may get slightly overlooked too; look out.


#3 Scioto's Shoes
OP invader lures top local jock Martinez and showed speed at a classier circuit, but note they were Ark. breds, and it's not like he did any running in any of his four starts; underlaid favorite.


#9 Brave One
Lifetime maiden beat the pick last time and a repeat makes him a player here, but he's now 0-for-16 and tough to trust, and seems to be going the wrong way in his figures; underneath only.


Race Summary
You should get fair value on the 6, especially since the 3rd last time was so slow on figures, but the runs two and three-back fit nicely with this group, and there's a good chance he gets back to them today, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, as a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.


Fonner Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Shepard's Pride
Pace presser drew well for his style, with just one speed signed on, and it's to his inside (#1), and while he's come up just short at the level in his last two, things looked aligned to one better that today; love his chances here.


#1 Astonish Tweet
The speed will no doubt need to be caught, and that didn't happen when he wired last time, but this is a rise in class, the pick won't let him get too far away early, and this 5-2 ML would be a big underlay; gets nailed on the line.


#3 Green Card
Stretch runner just-missed last time by a nose and beat the pick in the process, so if you like 'Pride you have to like this one too, though his lack of speed won't help today, as things won't be as hot early; runs out of room late.


Race Summary
The post and race flow really point to the 5, who likely won't have to chase as hard here as he did last time, and that 7-2 ML sure looks enticing, so play him aggressively to win and place, though you can get some built-in value by keying him to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it here, and he has the most consistent and proven form at the level as is.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#7 Word to the Wise
Forward player brings a bullet work to this for the new barn, and he has been heading in the right direction since his debut run. Big chance.


#6 Euromantic
Owns a couple of races that would probably handle this group, but she'll have to fire fresh off the December layoff.


#8 Speaker Van
Tough read here on the cutback. The recent form is going the wrong way, so I guess it's encouraging that they aren't trying to get rid of her right now, but her form has been all over the place her entire career, so I'm certainly not interested at anything like the 5/2 ML price.


Race Summary
Word to the Wise probably just needs to hold his form for the new barn in order to get the job done here as a repeat of his last seems good enough to handle a suspect group for the level.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#10 Freedom Hill
Really big run off the claim last out, and he also has the ability to sit a bit if necessary. Repeat of the last one probably leaves the rest running for second.


#2 My Wise Cat
The 'other' Diodoro comes in with consistent form and some running lines that can keep him in the frame with his stablemate.


#8 Chatterman
Longshot needs a bunch of pace to give him any real chance, but the splits figure to be honest in this one, so perhaps his rider gets him to the rail and tries to launch a late bid.


Race Summary
Freedom Hill and My Wise Cat ensure that this race runs through the Diodoro barn. They're the horses to beat in here, but the ceiling might be just a bit higher for Freedom Hill right now?


Will Rogers Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#2 Figure
Didn't miss by much in that last one when they came home pretty slowly, but she should get the right kind of trip from a spying spot and may offer a playable price.


#4 Nocturnal Mission
Wonder if this mare gets overbet off the big win last time out, but her ceiling is certainly high enough to win with her A-game.


#1 Hoyam
Can flash a bit of pace from the inside here, and she was not really hard pressed to break her maiden in the local debut.


Race Summary
Figure might get just a touch overlooked in here, but she's a pretty reliable type who figures to show up with another solid effort.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 Picadilly Roadster
Has struggled lately in much tougher spots than this, stretches back out to 6 furlongs and gets Haar aboard for this one. Expect serious improvement.


#5 Trapper Peak
Takes a clap drop for the solid Gonzalez barn and can be a factor from the start here.


#6 Hot Blooded Song
Pressed the pace and tired last out and takes a slight drop in class; his best makes him a factor in this one.


Race Summary
Picadilly Roadster can move up under these conditions and most recently was unable to keep up going 4 furlongs; he'll appreciate the added ground.


Fonner Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#3 Frankalee Fun
Can benefit from a rapid pace in front of him and has shown a late move recently; gets an additional half-furlong, which could be enough.


#4 Diesel's Prize
Makes a nice move to the lead in the stretch and then faltered late; he should have something left today.


#1 Giant Gamble
Won his last two on the front end and rider Martinez is still hitting at 23 percent; a force from the beginning.


Race Summary
Frankalee Fun has a good rally and will have some fast targets ahead of him; should enjoy the 6.5 furlongs.


Fonner Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Matapan
Battled head and head and dug in save 2nd in the Al Swihart Memorial last out; has been in with much tougher foes and should be able to prevail in this starter allowance.


#7 May Flowers
Has an emphatic closing move and was an easy winner three back; has been in some good races and it could be difficult for the pacesetters to hold her off.


#2 Classy and Fast
Has exceptional early speed and comes off a strong win; she was claimed by Arceo and gets top rider Martinez.


Race Summary
Matapan has been in with some strong company and a win and a stakes second at Oaklawn earlier; was bargain for the $5,000 claiming tag at which trainer Gonzalez haltered her last year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs



Will Rogers Downs - Race 9

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double



Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $20,900 • Post: 5:15P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OKLAHOMA STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FIGURE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIGURE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NOCTURNAL MISSION: Horse's win perc entage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MO GAYLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. KERTARA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).



2

FIGURE

5/1


5/1




4

NOCTURNAL MISSION

2/1


6/1




5

MO GAYLE

4/1


7/1




9

KERTARA

6/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

HOYAM

1


6/1

Alternator/Front-runner

71


73


58.8


73.0


66.0




3

MOCHA KISS

3


20/1

Stalker

61


48


55.8


31.5


17.0




2

FIGURE

2


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

85


74


72.8


75.3


68.3




5

MO GAYLE

5


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

85


73


68.4


68.8


60.8




9

KERTARA

9


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

82


70


62.0


70.4


63.9




4

NOCTURNAL MISSION

4


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

77


81


59.1


71.1


65.6




6

MUSICAL MILLIE

6


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

52


57


53.3


63.9


50.4




8

MI BELLA

8


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

76


59


49.6


55.1


45.1




7

MISS LEIN

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

53


37


42.7


39.8


22.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fonner Park - Race #4 - Post: 5:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,600 Class Rating: 48

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#10 GO CHIVA GO (ML=12/1)
#6 GO WEST INDY (ML=5/1)


GO CHIVA GO - Horse got a healthy fig last time he tried this trip. That number would be good enough to win today. Trainer Ecoffey moves this thoroughbred down the ladder based on class rating points to face much lower class horses. Look for a strong performance this time out. GO WEST INDY - Faced tougher last out at Fonner Park. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. You always have to be on the prowl for money making rider/trainer tandems; we have one right here. This gelding is in top physical condition right now. Ended up third last out and comes back promptly. Have to like the way Mitchell has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SCIOTO'S SHOES (ML=5/2), #9 BRAVE ONE (ML=4/1), #7 PRINCE OLAF (ML=6/1),

SCIOTO'S SHOES - This animal hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last two outings. BRAVE ONE - This gelding is always in the mix, but just doesn't win. Hard to play him on the top end. PRINCE OLAF - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line of 6/1. Don't think this horse will make a winning move today. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class rating.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #10 GO CHIVA GO to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $3600 Class Rating: 48

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 10 GO CHIVA GO 12/1




# 9 BRAVE ONE 4/1




# 1 JOJOGOTTAGO 8/1




GO CHIVA GO looks very good to best this group and the potential return justifies the very dangerous nature of the long odds. His 56 average has this horse with among the top speed figures for this event. As of late Ecoffey has provided wagerers with a formidable winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. In this field, this one is prominent in earnings per start in dirt sprint events. BRAVE ONE - Looks strong to be close to the lead at the first call. Has to be carefully examined for this event if only for the competitive speed figure put up in the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8250 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 5, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 SOUL OF DISCRETION 8/1




# 9 BURCIAGA 7/2




# 3 BLUEGRASS BALL 9/2




I think SOUL OF DISCRETION is a quite good selection and is a decent value bet given the line at 8/1. The speed figure of 83 from his last race looks formidable in here. BURCIAGA - With a nice class fig average of 91, has one of the top class advantages in this group. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 80 speed rating which is one of the most favorable in this field. BLUEGRASS BALL - Is a very solid contender based on figures posted recently under today's conditions. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me lean toward this gelding.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Cinco de Mayo Horse Picks

Tue May 05, 2020 8:16 am
Casino Queen comes in second and we hit the 1-7 exacta and it pays $41.60. We lost the other race. Today I have two from Fonner Park. Goodluck.

Race 2
#7 Creeds Revenge $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-2-4

Race 7
#3 A Bunch For Lunch $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-2-7