Service Plays Sunday 5/10/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Benten]

Indian Cowboy KBO

6-Unit Play. #304617. KBO. Korean Baseball League. Take Over 9.5 Runs SK Wyverns vs. Lotte Giants (Sunday @ 1am est)
We are on a 4-1 Other Sports Run right now and we look to hit our 6-Unit Korean Baseball Selection today. As per this play, we roll with the Over 9.5 Runs here as we look to take our MLB Success to Korean Baseball as we had won 3 straight years in Korean Baseball. As it relates to this play, we like the Over here as Straily pitched great in his first game but it was against a next to dead last time and he still gave up 2 runs in that game. Straily faces the much better team here offensively who is able to put runs in a hurry and one has to think he has a likely let down here . Combine that with Strailey is pitching for the better squad in Lotte look for the Lotte bats to have some success here against Kim Tae-Hoon who is 29 years old and has been pitching for 8 years and he is primarily a relief pitcher that is making the start here. What you have here is a SK team that will definitely get up to face Strailey and a Lotte team that will get plenty of pitches to hit as well as this game likely goes Over the posted total this evening.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 Noble Maria
Class dropper really woke up in her return off the long layoff, should only move forward off that tightener, and drew much better than the wide favorite; look out.


#12 Generic Mark
The chalk will be tough off the MSW drop, and note Arnold is 26% with Gaffalione riding, but the July layoff is a problem, and the post is even more so; second-best.


#4 Nanie's Treasure
Speedy sort cleared then predictably tired an August layoff, so she's another who should move forward, and there's not much pace signed on here either; price appeal.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 2, but there's little doubt the 12 is going to take a ton of play, so maybe you sneak out 7-2 or so on a gal who returned with a big figure (for this group) and now looks poised to better it, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she won't have to improve much, if at all, to handle this modest crew, especially with the chalk marooned out wide.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#9 Fiamma Mamma
Class dropper has the speed to be involved throughout, which means she'll be pressing in the clear, and therefore could break this open off the far turn; love her chances here.


#2 La Tres Jolis
Fellow dropper has been doing the turf thing of late but has some decent dirt form to fall back on, and if things get heated up front, she'll be rolling through the lane; stretch danger.


#8 I'm That Bird
Lightly raced runner has never been on the dirt but is sure bred for it, as dad Birdstone was a star, and there's plenty of upside here off just five starts as well; eligible to wake up.


Race Summary
The post and race flow seem to work for the 9, and she's been in good form too, which is more than most of these can say, so play her in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this looks like a tough puzzle to solve, so a win in the 7-2 range might play a lot longer in both sequences.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#3 All Around
Closer gets back to the dirt and goes off the claim for Ramirez, a 3-for-9 angle, and while the January layoff is a bit of a concern, there's a ton of pace here to set him up, and those AM drills leading up to this have been huge; mows them all down.


#4 South Sea
Major player goes off the Joseph claim, a monstrous 39% move, and his rating gear will have him settling just off the speed, which will get him first run on the pick, so there's a ton to like here, save the underlaid tote price; looms the one to beat.


#10 Quijote
Stiff class dropper didn't fire in his return and now plunges, which is never a good sign, but Irad sees fit to ride, Baxter seems to have the magic tough, and this one will be chasing wide, though still, that ugly return smarts a bit; tread lightly here.


Race Summary
There's a lot going on here, and a lot of runners you can play, which means just maybe the pick falls through the wagering cracks, which means you might sneak out 6-1 or so, which would be plenty of value in all the slots, though you can guarantee even more by using him to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's got the dirt form to be a threat, and the pace seems perfect for his style too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#12 Quarky
Chased and faded off the layoff last out, but he draws well to push the splits from the outside, and he's got some upside in this second start off the break.


#7 Good Bye Greg
Thinking he's overbet off the bench here as he deals with some other pace, but it's tough to discount this guy any time he heads to post.


#11 Sturgeon
Has some mild ability to pass some horses from time to time, and he may be along late with these at a price in a spot where he's probably not quite quick enough to keep up early.


Race Summary
Quarky faded badly in the comeback run, but Saez sticks around, and he has some obvious upside today.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Create Again
Worth a small swing at a price here, as there isn't a ton of serious sprint pace signed on in this group, and he's fast enough to find the front if they want it. Wings it on the engine?


#3 Yodel E. A. Who
Has been tough with claiming types in the past, but he'll be a short price off a clunker last time out. He's fast enough to find a good spot near the top.


#6 Fortune Cookie
Might not get quite enough pace to set up his midpack rally, but he won't be distanced in the early going and might be able to stick close enough to make a race of it late.


Race Summary
Create Again has a small chance to find the front without a ton of trouble in here, and if that happens, he'd be plenty attractive heading into the turn at something like 10/1.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#6 Where Paradise Lay
Walsh barn isn't particularly good off the claim, but they don't dive in for these types very often, so it's a small sample size compared to the overall record. Trainer grabs this one for himself off a nice win, and there are a trio of potential speed players for him to line up behind.


#2 Frosted Grace
Looks like the obvious one to beat, but this race isn't a sure thing for him, and he'll have some company near the top early. His ability to rate make him dangerous.


#3 Running For Riz
Looks like the speed of the speed in here, and if he's somehow able to clear off to a comfortable lead, his ceiling is high enough to win this if he gets brave.


Race Summary
Where Paradise Lay ran a really good one when scoring from close range last time out, and he should be able to land a similar trip for his new owner/trainer Brendan Walsh.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#1 Cold Brewster
Drew poorly last time and still ran 4th; should prosper with an inside post and can be close up throughout.


#2 Pollitical Game
Pressed from the outside and tired; can move up with his draw today.


#3 Ron Stone Cowboy
Ran a decent 3rd last out from the inside post and likely will be in a strong stalking position.


Race Summary
Cold Brewster gets the inside, has enough speed to keep that position and should have something left for the finish.


Remington Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#9 Uncle Eds Idea
Just missed last out in an improved effort; was a Black Gold winner at WRD last fall and his best will make him tough here.


#6 Uptowne Babe
Tired late in the Oklahoma Derby looks to return to her 2019 form that included a win in the Grade 1 Heritage Place Futurity.


#3 Trump My Record
Has won 8 of 10 and won the G1 Texas Classic Futurity in his last start; makes his 1st appearance since November.


Race Summary
Uncle Eds Idea was outrun in his 1st of the year but improved in his latest and appears to be heading back to top form.


Remington Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Aint Working
Was runnerup to Love Is Everything V in the Oklahoma Derby and will win if he runs back to his last one.


#8 Jess Different
Was up in time for a maiden win and continued improvement will make him a factor.


#9 Striking Perfection
Won the 1st three of her career and was off the board in her last three; has been in strong races and can get work her way into the exotic plays.


Race Summary
Aint Working was a solid 2nd last out and is ready to get back to winning; the one to beat here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 10

Late Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)



Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 9:54P


QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS THAT HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS MY HOCKS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. WAGER ON YOUR WAGON: Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EXPEDYTE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. RELENTLESS COWBOY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



7

JESS MY HOCKS

5/2


4/1




3

WAGER ON YOUR WAGON

10/1


7/1




6

EXPEDYTE

2/1


8/1




4

RELENTLESS COWBOY

6/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

TEMPTING CUATRO

1


15/1

Slow

0


0


8.9


0.0


0.0




2

SHANNON POWER

2


12/1

Fast

83


72


3.5


0.0


0.0




3

WAGER ON YOUR WAGON

3


10/1

Average

88


84


3.6


0.0


0.0




4

RELENTLESS COWBOY

4


6/1

Fast

89


75


3.5


0.0


0.0




5

IMA FANCY KNOCKOUT

5


5/1

Average

79


78


3.6


0.0


0.0




6

EXPEDYTE

6


2/1

Fast

93


76


1.8


0.0


0.0




7

JESS MY HOCKS

7


5/2

Fast

101


84


3.4


0.0


0.0




8

NEEDS NO INTRO

8


8/1

Average

82


79


3.8


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)



Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 8:33P


QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GALLOPING GODDESS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. JESS ZOOMIN SENATOR: Quarter horse has the highes t last race Equibase Speed Rating. DECEIVER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STEL CHANCEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. HOT LITTLE KIDDY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



6

GALLOPING GODDESS

2/1


6/1




2

JESS ZOOMIN SENATOR

6/1


6/1




1

DECEIVER

3/1


8/1




5

STEL CHANCEY

15/1


8/1




4

HOT LITTLE KIDDY

3/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

DECEIVER

1


3/1

Average

94


91


3.9


0.0


0.0




2

JESS ZOOMIN SENATOR

2


6/1

Average

97


94


4.3


0.0


0.0




3

CHOCOLATE DIVINITY

3


4/1

Average

87


91


4.8


0.0


0.0




4

HOT LITTLE KIDDY

4


3/1

Slow

90


89


6.9


0.0


0.0




5

STEL CHANCEY

5


15/1

Average

88


89


5.0


0.0


0.0




6

GALLOPING GODDESS

6


2/1

Fast

96


93


3.5


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 106

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CONDITION




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 11 STURGEON 6/1




# 13 TAKE CHARGE DUDE 7/2




# 5 JAKE ROCKS 20/1




My choice in this event is STURGEON. This equine has some longshot angles going for him. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying strong numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 90 under similar conditions. With one of the top jock in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. TAKE CHARGE DUDE - He must be considered given the very good speed figures. This gelding looks good for this race since Joseph has a sharp winning percentage with horses going this distance. JAKE ROCKS - Win percentage one of the top in this group of horses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 74

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 DURGA 3/5




# 2 INDIAS LUTE 3/1




# 1 WILLOWGLADE 20/1




My selection for this event is DURGA. Is tough not to look at based on speed figs which have been very strong - 62 avg - of late. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this group. INDIAS LUTE - This filly looks strong for this event since Morfin has a strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Has been running quite well lately and will almost certainly be on the lead early on. WILLOWGLADE - Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. Don't let this filly slip past you. Could score at boxcar odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park




05/10/20, GP, Race 5, 3.11 ET
05/10/20,GP,5,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 10 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
8
I'm That Bird
4-1
Jaramillo E
Gulick James M.
TC
39.27
1.38/$1


099.32
5
La Flamenca
6-1
Rodriguez A A
Navarro Marcial
FL
39.27
1.38/$1


098.80
2
La Tres Jolie
3-1
Saez L
Sano Antonio
J
39.27
1.38/$1


098.75
1
Union Lane
12-1
Burgos A
Pita Daniel
W
39.27
1.38/$1


098.27
9
Fiamma Mamma
5/2
Trejos J
Delgado Gustavo


39.27
1.38/$1


096.39
4
Distinctly Sassy
12-1
Vasquez M A
Bezara Agustin C.
E
39.27
1.38/$1


095.69
3
Kaufy Futures
10-1
Fuentes M
Levy Tamara L.


35.10
1.31/$1


095.49
6
Tell Me Maux
12-1
Juarez N
Brownlee David R.
S
35.10
1.31/$1


094.17
7
Country Strong
20-1
Lebron V
Kassen David C.


35.10
1.31/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.84, ROI 1.08/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 2: #1 to WIN


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
HORSES – Australia A Race 7: #13 to WIN


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 1: #4 to WIN


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 6: #4 to WIN


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
HORSES – Australia A Race 8: #6 to WIN


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 11: #5 to WIN


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
HORSES – Australia A Race 9: #7 to WIN


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
HORSES – Remington Park Race 5: #8 to WIN


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 10: #8 to WIN


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
HORSES – Australia B Race 7: #1 to WIN


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #3 to WIN


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #11 to WIN


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #9 to WIN


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Australia C Race 9: #6 to WIN


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
HORSES – Australia A Race 3: #6 to WIN


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #3 to WIN


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 7: #14 to WIN


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 9: #3 to WIN


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
HORSES – Los Alamitos Race 5: #2 to WIN


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Australia C Race 3: #1 to WIN


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #6 to WIN


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
HORSES – Australia C Race 6: #7 to WIN


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
HORSES – Australia C Race 2: #10 to WIN


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 9: #1 to WIN


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 4: #6 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 5/10/20 May 10, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Sunday, May 10, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 9-Bella Gianna; 12-Generic Mark

Forecast: As this is written, consistent rain is predicted throughout the afternoon in South Florida. We’re going to handicap the Mother's Day card under the assumption that there will be no turf racing and that the main-track-only runners will draw in. It’s possible that the rain will arrive late enough to allow the Sunday first race (at least) to remain on grass and we suggest you disregard our selections and analysis for this race if this turns out to be the case. In the opener, originally scheduled for a mile on grass, Bella Gianna seems likely to be the controlling speed; it’s just a matter of how far she can stay in front speed stretching out after a series of sprints. If she’s going to get the trip, it’ll be in her first time trying in. Generic Mark, purchased as a yearling for $150,000, had a couple of runs in maiden special weight races last year while earning speed figures that are much stronger than par for a bottom-rung maiden claimer such as this. The pattern is more than worrisome, as she is being tossed away on the cheap while returning off a 10-month layoff with a light, uninspiring work tab. Also, she displayed no early speed in her two outings, but at least she’s bred to like an off track. Assuming this race switches to a main track one-turn miler, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Apache; 3-Three Deep

Forecast: Apache nosedives in class to the maiden $25,000 level after finishing fourth for $50,000 last time out in what was just her second start. This easier spot coupled with the stretch-out to a mile should produce a significant forward move, and her pedigree suggests she’ll like a wet track as well. Also, she makes a significant jockey switch to L. Saez, so with a clean break from the rail, the K. O’Connell-trained daughter of Khozan should have every chance to handle this modest task while on or near the lead throughout. On pure form Three Deep is strictly the one to beat but makes a significant negative jockey change (at this stage of his career, bug boy M. Fuentes appears lacking in strength and skill). We’ll use the son of Fort Larned on a back-up ticket or two but upgrade his chances should a late jockey change (not really expected) be announced.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Single: 5-Sugar Bolt

Forecast: This race originally was carded on grass. We’re handicapping this five furlong sprint under the assumption that it will be transferred to the main track. Sugar Bolt shows up in a seller for the first time and has the kind of early zip to be long gone at this level and at this shortened sprint trip, assuming she’s healthy. The spotty race pattern (off from September to December and now returning off a five-month layoff) doesn’t inspire confidence but she’s reunited with “win rider” E. Jaramillo and the work tab looks good enough. We’ll make her a somewhat shaky rolling exotic single in a race that should be treated with caution.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:39 ET. Grade: B
Single: 11-More Than Unusual

Forecast: This race was originally scheduled for a mile on grass. We’re handicapping the race under the assumption that it will be transferred to the main track. More Than Usual drops to the bottom, stretches out to a distance he should like, has a terrific off track pedigree and has high percentage connections. He also has numbers that are better than par for this level. That said, we have no idea if he will remain in the race should it come off the turf.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:11 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-I’m That Bird; 9-Flamma Mamma

Forecast: Flamma Mamma drops to the bottom level, lands a cozy outside post, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy J. Trejos and should have no difficulty coping with the anticipated wet track. She needs to get loose on the lead to have her best chance and the projected race flow suggests he’ll have a chance to do just that. I’m That Bird drops in class, turns back in trip, switches to the main track and has the pedigree to move up on a wet track. She’s never raced on conventional dirt (or an off-track) but her maiden win over the synthetic at Arlington Park charts very strongly here.
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RACE 6: Post 3:43 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Carolyn’s Smile; 3-Sweden

Forecast: Carolyn’s Smile moves up from a maiden claimer but on pure numbers she’s the fastest filly in this maiden-special-weight race restricted to Florida-bred fillies and mares. Beaten a neck while almost seven lengths clear of the rest last time out, the daughter of Khozan shouldn’t have a problem with wet surface. Sweden ran very well over this course and distance two runs back when finishing third in a fast, highly-rated race. She faltered going two turns in her next outing but shortens up and makes a significant jockey switch to E. Zayas. Having been produced by a daughter of Unbridled’s Song gives hope that can move up considerably on a wet track.
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RACE 7: Post 4:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 10-Trev; 13-Take Charge Dude

Forecast: As of this writing we’re operating under the assumption that this race will be taken off the turf. If it remains on grass, disregarded the analysis. Main-track only Trev is a mud-freak and a winner of his last four, two of which were off-the-turf races over this main track and distance. Lucky for him the rains are predicted to come at the right time. However, he’ll have to deal with the equally fast Take Charge Dude, himself a three-time wet track winner and expected to draw into the race as a main-track only entrant. Trev is the quicker of the two so we’ll put him on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Yodel E. A. Who; 6-Fortune Cookie; 7-Champagneonme;

Forecast: Yodel E. A. Who returns to his claim level and can regain his best form over an anticipated wet track he should have no difficulty handling. The Creative Cause gelding has a good stalking style and projects to be in the fray throughout. Fortune Cookie failed to threaten as the favorite vs. similar last time out but is more effective at this seven furlong distance and seems capable of bouncing back. He switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and will be running on late. Champagneoneme just won a similar affair in late March and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be a threat from behind.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Frosted Grace

Forecast:. Frosted Grace is strong on numbers and the logical top pick. How we’ll do on an anticipated sloppy track is anybody’s guess and at 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he won’t be offer a whole lot of wagering value, so you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or just pass the race.
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RACE 10: Post 5:47 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-South Sea; 11-Front Loaded

Forecast: Front Loaded makes a favorable rider switch and moves to the outside in this $35,000 (nw-3) restricted claimer. A six-time winner over the local main track and twice successful on a wet surface, the Kantharos gelding should settle in mid-pack and kick home when it counts. South Sea, first off the claim for a barn that hits at a sensational 39% with this angle, has failed in five previous starts over an off track but has plenty of back numbers good enough to win and should produce a forward move in his first outing for S. Joseph, Jr.