Service Plays Thursday 5/14/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

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College Basketball
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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 El Scorcho
Tepid ML favorite drops steeply again for John Servis, still has plenty of upside off just two starts, goes second-off the layoff, and gets a monumental jock upgrade to Saez; all systems go.


#5 Funny Feather
Logical sort is another who takes a drop in class, albeit a much slighter one than the chalk, but she tacks up nicely with her on paper, and will be a much better price too; exotics appeal.


#4 Matcha
Major underlay will get bet because Irad is here, but her last two have been dreadful, and now she actually rises in class too, so at false odds, she's impossible to trust; tread very lightly.


Race Summary
Swing hard if you sniff that 3-1 ML on the 6, as this looks like another ML miss, since she looks more like 8-5 or so, so make an aggressive win and place bet at 2-1 or better, though you can get some guaranteed value by singling her to kick off the early Pk5, since that's a move the betting public doesn't like to endorse in the opening leg of a sequence, even though in this case it looks like the right move in a name the score type of race for the favorite.


Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Our Time
Price player has run just once on turf, and that was in a stakes against tons better, and his 6th that day wasn't terrible, and now he gets a field loaded with speed to aid his stalking style, and runs as a first-time gelding too; upset special.


#10 Bahamian Prince
Deserving chalk was just a fast 2nd against better, is another who can settle and make a run into the pace, and will clearly take a lot of beating, though the wide draw and underlaid price aren't all that appealing; still, looms plenty scary.


#7 Sea Lover
Undefeated runner is 2-for-2, and impressed in his turf bow last time too, and the fact he drew outside the other speed helps too, though pressing/chasing early, kicking clear, then holding off the top-2 won't be easy; comes up wanting late.


Race Summary
Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should really flatter the 1, who could be poised for a breakthrough run on the return to the turf, and with the help of the ultimate equipment change too, so give him a look in all the slots, box him in the EX with the 10, and use them both in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since the race flow says they will have every chance to run by them all in deep stretch.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#1 New York Commander
Price player got to the turf in her second start and really improved when a close 5th at the level, has a ton of room to move forward again, and the tactical speed to lay close throughout, plus meets a crew there for the taking, and while the 28-1 is gone, she'll still offer value; can surprise.


#2 Cookie Cove
The chalk and horse to beat will take a lot of support with the big jock switch to Irad, and maybe that's what finally gets her over the hump, or the fact she's in against a weak field too, but at 0-for-8 with no upside, 5-2 or 2-1 from down inside in a big field is no bargain; trying to beat on top.


#11Dotdotdas
Logical contender has run 4th in both turf starts and either of those finishes would put her in the mix here, especially last time over the pick, as she had a ton of trouble, but she's still no great shakes on paper, drew wide, and would be an underlay at this 9-2 ML; using her underneath only.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 1, and she tipped her hand a bit last time with a much-improved run while getting to the turf, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's likely to fall through the wagering cracks, and the budget players will be singling the 2, even though the pick isn't too far off her on paper, and would really blow things up with a win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Charles Town - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#8 River Flyinred Rvf
Didn't show a whole lot in the Penn debut, but he drops for this one while racing with Lasix, and he has some room to improve with that race under his belt.


#1 Tun Tun
Turned in an even effort at 26/1 in the debut while facing better, and though he can win, I wouldn't be too excited about taking too short a number here.


#7 Mad Miner
Has an April '19 layoff to manage for this comeback, but at least he's catching an entire group that's coming off a layoff of sorts. There if he fires.


Race Summary
River Flyinred Rvf gets Lasix while dropping in class for the local debut, and he'd be attractive at anything near his 10/1 ML offering.


Charles Town - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#3 Vonda
Was no match for the mare drawn to her inside when they met in February, but this one is capable of something a bit better than she offered that day. Price might be right to see if she can turn the tables.


#2 Thesweetesttaboo
Rattled off three in a row here before the break, and she's going to be in line for another really good run of things from close range.


#7 Sainte Therese
Has some mild ability to settle and pass horses, and that may allow her to find her way into the gimmicks at a price.


Race Summary
Vonda has several lengths to turn on Thesweetesttaboo from their February meeting, but her best game keeps her in the mix if she's able to bring it today.


Charles Town - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Pecan Pattie
I'd be thrilled to get something like the 3/1 ML price on this one, as she's super reliable and has faced better company than this in most of her recent starts.


#8 Silk Stocking
Tactical type can get the right kind of trip while spying the pace today, but the price gets shorter than the 17/1 she offered last out when facing just four others.


#5 Azzurra
Was heading in the right direction before the break, and she should get a really nice trip from right up on the splits while adding ground today.


Race Summary
Pecan Pattie figures tough with this group if she's able to transfer her form to the local footing. She has been in with good company should get the right kind of trip.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#3 AJ Quick Chick
Closed well for 3rd two back and then got lost in the crowd last time; her best gives her a great chance here.


#4 Dubdeuce
Was 2nd in his last three, including in his only start this season; can be a strong player from the start.


#2 Cartel King
Has been on the board in 6 of 10 races and has been in some good races; would not be a major surprise.


Race Summary
AJ Quick Chick has some good races on her form and can make a solid run inside; can finish the job this time.


Remington Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#9 Heres a Question
Comes out of decent races, was claimed two back and makes her 2nd for Steele stable; can get a clean run outside.


#5 Ryochord
Makes 1st of the year after being on the board in two of his last four last year; has a bullet work to his credit.


#3 Im a Fancy Zorrito
Held 3rd in his only start and can battle from the beginning; in the mix.


Race Summary
Heres a Question has been close in all three races and has a good chance to finish well against these.


Remington Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#10 JS Gitter Dun Chicken
Was 3rd in both starts this year and drops out of maiden special races; can be effective on this class drop.


#1 Ms Flea Flicker
Ran 3rd last time on the class drop and can be a big player inside from the beginning.


#9 AE Fire N Sixes
Was on the board in his last eight races and has a 2nd and 3rd here this season; a factor throughout.


Race Summary
JS Gitter Dun Chicken drops in class after facing some top-flight runners in his career and should be able to break the maiden here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/14

Thu May 14, 2020 6:53 am
Great day, 3-1 in UFC action and the big one hit with Drew Dober beating Alexander Hernadez and we crushed it with the Horses. Caramelito wins and pays $18.60, $6.40 and $4.20 and Dramacide comes in 3rd but we nail the 8-5 exacta and it pays $41.20. Here's three from Gulfstream. Stay safe.

Race 1
#7 Josefa $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-6-4

Race 8
#3 Don't Get Khozy $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-4-7

Race 9
#5 Pacific Gale $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-4-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town



Charles Town - Race 3

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (3-4) / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)



Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 55 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 7:54P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. READY TO CHARM is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BRET'S LEGACY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TUN TUN: Horse is dropp ing into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.



2

BRET'S LEGACY

5/1


9/5




1

TUN TUN

3/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

READY TO CHARM

6


4/1

Front-runner

53


38


56.7


27.4


12.4




1

TUN TUN

1


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


71.1


52.1


47.1




2

BRET'S LEGACY

2


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

88


69


64.0


43.5


37.0




4

JUST GO WITH IT

4


9/2

Alternator/Stalker

55


50


56.8


24.2


15.7




3

BRILLIANT BOLT

3


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

56


48


51.6


45.2


34.7




8

RIVER FLYINRED RVF

8


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


33.2


42.7


36.2




7

MAD MINER

7


5/1

Alternator/Trailer

62


52


41.0


44.6


35.6




5

ANTAGONIZER

5


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


77.4


41.3


34.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park



Gulfstream Park - Race 3

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)



Claiming $25,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 88 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 2:07P


(RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SEA LOVER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is a t least 50. Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). FLASH PASS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BAHAMIAN PRINCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.



7

SEA LOVER

4/1


4/1




6

FLASH PASS

3/1


6/1




10

BAHAMIAN PRINCE

2/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

SEA LOVER

7


4/1

Front-runner

84


83


91.0


91.0


88.0




5

BYCHANCE

5


20/1

Front-runner

69


76


87.0


64.4


49.9




3

FREDDY SOTO

3


12/1

Front-runner

73


70


84.4


76.8


61.3




2

DECKOLOGY

2


8/1

Front-runner

87


75


67.3


64.5


54.5




10

BAHAMIAN PRINCE

10


2/1

Stalker

81


83


91.8


78.4


71.4




9

GRAN HOMBRE

9


6/1

Stalker

80


82


86.3


70.2


58.7




6

FLASH PASS

6


3/1

Alternator/Trailer

90


83


89.1


83.4


76.4




8

DEO FORTE

8


12/1

Alternator/Trailer

87


85


76.8


77.0


66.0




1

OUR TIME

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

83


68


58.8


67.3


52.8




4

KHOZY MY BOY

4


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

78


69


52.8


67.4


52.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



05/14/20, GP, Race 1, 1.00 ET
05/14/20,GP,1,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $18,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,500, allowed 1 lb. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track atOne Mile) (Rail at 84 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
4
Matcha(b-)
7/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Kimmel John C.
TWL
31.15
1.20/$1


095.51
6
El Scorcho
3-1
Saez L
Servis John C.


31.15
1.20/$1


095.45
2
Bit Coin Queen
12-1
Juarez N
Brownlee David R.


31.15
1.20/$1


094.89
7
Josefa
9/2
Vasquez M A
Sano Antonio


31.15
1.20/$1


094.81
14
Gran Etiqueta
8-1
Vasquez M A
Barboza. Jr. Victor
S
36.67
1.69/$1


093.66
13
Princess Pao
4-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Sweezey J. Kent
E
28.57
1.51/$1


092.61
5
Funny Feather
8-1
Meneses M
Rodriguez Angel M.
FC
31.15
1.20/$1


092.28
3
Silver Palms
12-1
Lebron V
Swick Don


31.15
1.20/$1


091.89
11
Dona Camile
10-1
Zayas E J
Sano Antonio


31.15
1.20/$1


091.85
9
Poseidons Heir
20-1
Olsson F
Barbazon III Lester


31.15
1.20/$1


091.68
10
Signing Bonus
15-1
Reyes L
Brooks Marcy


28.57
1.51/$1


091.52
1
Miriana's Queen
20-1
Reyes L R
Gonzalez Oscar M.


36.67
1.69/$1


091.07
8
Lookn Fine as Wine(b+)
12-1
Fuentes M
Acker Scott D.


28.57
1.51/$1


090.64
12
Tiny Turbo
30-1
Martinez G A
Woodard Walter H.


31.15
1.20/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 28.26, ROI 0.89/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
4
Matcha(b-)
7/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Kimmel John C.
TEL
42.75
1.43/$1


098.70
6
El Scorcho
3-1
Saez L
Servis John C.


42.75
1.43/$1


097.54
14
Gran Etiqueta
8-1
Vasquez M A
Barboza. Jr. Victor
S
42.75
1.43/$1


097.44
2
Bit Coin Queen
12-1
Juarez N
Brownlee David R.
W
42.75
1.43/$1


096.98
13
Princess Pao
4-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Sweezey J. Kent


42.75
1.43/$1


095.94
7
Josefa
9/2
Vasquez M A
Sano Antonio


42.75
1.43/$1


095.84
3
Silver Palms
12-1
Lebron V
Swick Don


42.75
1.43/$1


095.22
5
Funny Feather
8-1
Meneses M
Rodriguez Angel M.
FC
42.75
1.43/$1


093.73
11
Dona Camile
10-1
Zayas E J
Sano Antonio


42.75
1.43/$1


093.01
8
Lookn Fine as Wine(b+)
12-1
Fuentes M
Acker Scott D.


42.75
1.43/$1


092.96
12
Tiny Turbo
30-1
Martinez G A
Woodard Walter H.


42.75
1.43/$1


092.91
10
Signing Bonus
15-1
Reyes L
Brooks Marcy


42.75
1.43/$1


092.14
9
Poseidons Heir
20-1
Olsson F
Barbazon III Lester


42.75
1.43/$1


091.70
1
Miriana's Queen
20-1
Reyes L R
Gonzalez Oscar M.


42.75
1.43/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.90, ROI 0.95/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7 - Post: 3:42pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 MOONSHINE ANNIE (ML=3/1)
#7 SAY IT WITH ROSES (ML=9/2)
#9 LIVE IT WELL (ML=6/1)


MOONSHINE ANNIE - I expect a lot from this horse. Her speed ratings under similar conditions are tops in this field. Great average class rating on this horse. Should have the class ability to run well on the turf. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another indicator that this animal is the class of the race. SAY IT WITH ROSES - Tamayo is strong in grass routes. This horse should have no justifications if she doesn't win. Tamayo drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to figure that this horse should be one of the top contenders at this level. LIVE IT WELL - I undeniably see favorable signs for this horse right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ODESSA (ML=5/2), #6 LORETTA (ML=6/1),

ODESSA - Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this race compromises this equine's chances. LORETTA - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but she falls short most of the time. There's speed, zip, and more zip in this race. Doesn't look too promising for this animal.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 MOONSHINE ANNIE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [7,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [4,7,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,7,9] with [4,7,9] with [4,5,6,7,9] with [4,5,6,7,9] Total Cost: $36



SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:

[4,7,9] with [4,7,9] with [4,5,7,9] with [2,4,5,6,7,9] with [2,4,5,6,7,9] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $9700 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 IM A FANCY ZORRITO 4/1




# 9 HERES A QUESTION 3/1




# 6 JAMES CAMRYN 6/1




I have to support IM A FANCY ZORRITO here. Has formidable speed figures and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. The Equibase Speed Fig of 60 from his last affair looks solid in here. HERES A QUESTION - Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. Is a definite contender - given the 62 speed fig from her most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JANUARY 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 OCEAN LILLY 4/1




# 4 PECAN PATTIE 3/1




# 13 MAMA'S GREY GHOST 5/1




OCEAN LILLY has a respectable shot to take this race. This filly has been consistently running well in her latest outings. With a reliable 72 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this field. PECAN PATTIE - Has been consistently running well recently. Appears to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. MAMA'S GREY GHOST - Has very good front-end speed and will most likely fare strongly versus this group. Has been running well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Golden Gate Fields Wagering Strategies - 5/14/20 May 14, 2020

Golden Gate Fields
Thursday, May 14, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shanghai Truffles; 4-Buyback

Forecast: Racing resumes in the Bay Area with a middle distance starter’s allowance event on grass for fillies and mares. Buyback invades from Southern California and is a first-off-the-claim play following a game win with a career-top speed figure in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint. She’s moving up in class, stretching out, and switching to grass, and while we’re confident the M. Chew-trained filly will cope with the class hike and handle the added distance, her ability on grass is unknown. The good news is that she was produced by a daughter of English Derby-G1 winner North Light, so there’s reason to believe she’ll enjoy the lawn, and as the projected controlling speed, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man could be hard to catch. Shanghai Truffles also vans north from Santa Anita after being kept on edge with a steady recent series of easy workouts. She lacks a true turn of foot, but if the P. Gallagher-trained daughter of Shanghai Bobby can lay relatively close to the early pace she may be able to grind down the leaders late. The barn’s “go-to” Northern California jockey J. Couton (39% with a powerful flat-bet profit with this stable) takes the call. We’ll prefer Buyback slightly on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bank of Many; 4-Charming Lass; 8-Rebel At Heart

Forecast: Rebel At Heart seems well-spotted to graduate in the second race, a maiden $5,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares over five furlongs. Not a quick type but likely to settle just behind the leaders and then have every chance to seal the deal, the daughter of Kafwain removes blinkers and drops to the bottom for the first time. A good recent work pattern should have her on edge. Charming Lass plummets from the maiden $12,500 level and projects to be in a good pace-pressing position. She also shows a healthy recent series of drills and on speed figures is a fit in this league. Bank of Many brings the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and has a speed figure deep in her past performance chart over this track and distance that probably could win this race. We’d include her on our ticket as a back-up.
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RACE 3: Post 1:45 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Takes a Village; 4-Sassy and Hot; 8-Streusel

Forecast: Sassy and Hot should be the solid choice to earn her diploma in this six furlong maiden $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares. With just two prior outings, the daughter of Stormin Fever has room to improve, and after missing by a neck while more than three lengths clear of the rest in a similar affair over this track in March, she projects as the controlling speed under J. Couton, who stays aboard for Southern California-based trainer L. Powell. The one to fear most is Takes a Village, who drops to her lowest level ever while owning several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. However, she is an 11-race maiden and has a history of backing up under pressure from the furlong pole to the wire, so while we’ll definitely include the daughter of Lakerville on our ticket she is by no means one to trust. Also worth using on at least a ticket or two is Streusel, a second-time starter from the J. Josephson barn. A willing third in the same race Sassy and Hot exits, the daughter of Smiling Tiger has a right to improve with that bit of experience behind her combined with an extra half-furlong to work with.
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RACE 4: Post 2:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sarah’s Smirk; 2-Lydia O Lydia; 3-Real Keeper; 5-Westerly Way

Forecast: The first leg of the Pick-6 is borderline inscrutable, requiring a substantial spread. Use as many as you can afford to. Waverly Way has been routing most of her career but in this new role as a late-running sprinter the Kitten’s Joy filly could tag the suspect leaders in the final furlong. In the frame in each of her last three starts and with speed figures that are better than par for the level, the T. McCanna-trained filly retains W. Antongeorgi III, who knows her well. Sarah’s Smirk returned off an eight month layoff to graduate gamely over this track and distance in a respectable maiden $8,000 affair that produced a career top speed figure, one that makes her a solid fit right back in this restricted (nw-2) $4,000 affair for fillies and mares. She needs to leave cleanly from the rail, and in a field that doesn’t contain many quick types she could be tough to run down. Real Keeper, away since last June, returns in a realistic spot for competent connections but shows an inspiring workout pattern that has a recent 26-day gap. Additionally, the barn has below average stats with layoff runners, so we’ll use her but not with a lot of confidence. Lydia O Lydia has a maiden claiming win here in late February that charts well with these. After being overmatched vs. nw-2 $12,500 foes in her most recent start the E. Moger, Jr.-trained filly drops to where she fits while retaining top rider J. J. Hernandez.
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RACE 5: Post 2:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cape Point; 7-Constitutionaffair; 8-Strugar

Forecast: Three Southern California shippers should get much of the play in this maiden-claiming $20,000 middle distance turf event, topped by Constitutionaffair for the high-percentage (44%) S. Callaghan-J.J. Hernandez team. A strong runner-up while more than seven lengths clear of the rest at this level down south in early March, the lightly-raced 3-year-old tries grass for the first time, and though his dam (by Street Cry) was unraced his second dam, a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, was a good grass allowance winner at Keeneland in a brief career so there’s hope that his colt will handle the sod just fine. In what projects to be a slowly run race, he should be able to draft into a lovely pace-stalking/pressing position and then have every chance to kick when asked to. Strugar is worth strong consideration as well. Originally a $900,000 yearling, the son of Hard Spun has had only two career starts midway through his 4-year-old season and is clearly being culled by the stable but based on the speed figure he earned in his debut in February over a mile on the main track the P. Eurton-trained gelding could be dangerous in his first start over a surface he’s bred to like. Cape Point, from the J. Sadler barn, drops to his lowest level ever, and though he has yet to hit the board in five starts his speed figures suggest he’ll be very competitive in this league. So far, the son of Temple City has displayed a one-pace style with no real acceleration but against this group he should be something of a factor.
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RACE 6: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Diamondsnchampagne

Forecast: Diamondsnchampagne is a tough-as-nails sprinter who has been superbly managed by trainer W. Delia. Today she drops into an $8,000 restricted claiming sprint for fillies and mares that have never won two races for $6,250 or higher. This state-bred 5-year-old has won a total seven races in her career, all but one for a price below the cut-off level, so these conditions fit her perfectly. Regular pilot C. Martinez will have her on the lead in a field that she should be able to clear without undue pressure, and at this five and one-furlong trip with a record of six wins from 10 starts and with numbers that are consistently strong, the five-year-old daughter of Vronsky should simply pick-up where she left off. We’ll make her a logical single in rolling exotic play, including, of course, the Pick-6.
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RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Odessa; 4-Moonshine Annie

Forecast: Odessa returns to grass after finishing a solid runner-up at this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 level on the all-weather surface in her most recent outing in early March. From the high-percentage J. Wong barn, the daughter of Acclamation shouldn’t have an issue with turf, and if given the patient ride she prefers she projects to inherit a comfortable mid-pack position and and have every chance to produce a winning late kick in a field that has ample speed signed on. Moonshine Annie, freshened since early January and dropping significantly to her lowest level ever, is a rather uninspiring 1-for-21 in her career on turf, but may get her confidence back in this league. She’s another that’s most effective with patient handling and given the proper ride could be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Stand in Your Love; 7-Breakfast Ball; 9-Perfect Mood

Forecast: Perfect Mood broke poorly, raced wide, had a bit of traffic trouble in the upper stretch and then finished evenly in her only prior outing while facing tougher straight maidens last fall. She was stopped on after that start but returns in a soft maiden $12,500 sprint with three six furlongs drills and then recent bullet three furlong gate drill (36 2/5, fastest of 27). The daughter of Idiot Proof – assuming she breaks well – should be on or near the pace throughout and against this group could very well keep on going. Stand in Your Love, in the frame in all three career starts and the likely choice and one to beat, turns back from a mile in her second start since being claimed by solid trainer D. Markle. She’s quick enough to be in the first flight throughout. Breakfast Ball didn’t run badly in her debut when a willing third in a fairly competitive race for the level. The daughter of Bayern has a right to move forward due to a healthy series of workouts since that race, so we’ll toss her in as well.
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RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Conquest Sabre Cat; 2-Studly Perfection; 3-Soberano

Forecast: Conquest Sabre Cat is a Golden Gate Fields course specialist, having won three of five career starts over the local lawn, and though moving up from the $8,000 level this veteran Kitten’s Joy gelding seems well-spotted to regain his winning form. Guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip under regular rider J. J. Hernandez, the I. Tamayo-trained 7-year-old seems capable of wearing down the leaders close home. Soberano is a strong fit on speed figures but is winless in seven starts since being imported from France. Based in Southern California but a decent third when facing $20,000 foes here over the all-weather surface in early March, the T. R. Bell II-trained son of Elusive City likes to lag and kick home late and therefore would be happy to see a faster-than-par early pace. Studly Perfection is a first-off-the-claim for J. Wong (36% with this angle) and can be expected to improve significantly. The son of Majesticperfection, a winner on the all-weather in early February when defeating Conquest Sabre Cat, is re-equipped with blinkers, lands a good inside draw, and almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics in this $12,500 turf miler for older horses. The surface switch is an issue, though, as he was last of nine at even money (speed/fade) in his only prior outing on grass vs. maiden claimers at Santa Anita a couple of years ago.

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
KBO
KIA over