Service Plays Tuesday 5/19/20

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Gaby Vee
Price player has run well in her last two 6F starts, has a stalking style that should enable her to trip out well, and, after nine starts, has a lot more upside than her two main rivals; looks good.


#3 Coil and Strike
ML favorite is best on paper and has the most consistent recent form too, but she's also 0-for-14, so improvement is unlikely, and her margin for error over the pick is a slim one; second-best.


#2 Super Miss B Haven
Logical sort will like the MSW drop, and the distant 2nd two-back at the level makes her a player, though at 0-for-25 there's no reason to think today is the day; using underneath, as always.


Race Summary
That 6-1 ML on the pick seems a real reach, but even 7-2 or so seems fair and would warrant a win ans place bet, though you can get some guaranteed value by using her in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she won't have to improve much, if at all, to play with a group like this, if the 6 and 3 are the ones she's got to fear.


Fonner Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 All for Truth
Speedster stretched out last time and was a wakeup 2nd at the level, with a huge figure (for these) too, and while the 36-1 is long gone, he could still offer a hint of value, and looks like a Lone F as well; come and catch the pick.


#2 Golden Bullet
The class and one to beat has been facing tons better, which will make him tough, but his lack of speed is a worry, not to mention it wasn't like he was making a dent in those spots, and yet he'll be way overbet here; scary, but no lock.


#1 Ohtani
Price player drew well and has the tactical speed to keep the pick in his sights early, and those last two runs at the level make him a threat, and while you won't get this 10-1 ML, he'll still offer value; hardly impossible from close range.


Race Summary
The pace will work for the 6, as he looks to be the loose and controlling speed, and that 7-2 ML might even float up a bit, as the 2 will get bet hard and the 1 will come way down off his bad line, so play the pick in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he seems to have an edge here in terms of race flow, which means there's enough risk-reward to see if his last was no fluke.


Finger Lakes - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Awsome Emmit
Price player and class dropper was in over his head last time in a good local stakes, so this group will be a lot more to his liking, and his tactical speed will play nicely here too, as he can sit just off all the heat and get first run off the far turn; upset special.


#2 Scooter's Boy
Streaking sort has won four straight since returning to Anderson's barn, and getting over the local oval, and he showed last time he can win at the level too, though this is a tougher group, and his lack of early speed is always a worry; runs out of room late.


#4 Ourbestfriend D L
The best of the speed dueled early last time and paid the price in the lane, when he tired as the favorite behind 'Boy, and the scenario looks similar today, as he's not going to get a breather on the engine, which won't help in deep stretch; comes unglued again.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the pick, most notably the drop in class and his tote price, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he might fall through the wagering cracks, even though we've seen all meet that the class droppers have been firing when given the chance at the proper level, and he sure fits in that regard.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Will Rogers Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#5 Between the Arches
Worth a small look from off the pace in a spot where several of them want to be in the mix in the early going. She showed a bit of late life last out, and some similar interest in the lane makes her interesting today.


#9 Bright Bling
Figures tough with these off the string of consistent efforts, and she's quick enough to find position from his high draw.


#4 Shanghai Sally
Tactical type should get a good run of things, and she may offer a bit better number than she did last out when scoring at 9/5 with softer.


Race Summary
Between the Arches has some claim on this if the splits heat up in the early going, and she took a step forward last time out and returns with another bullet work.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#12 Lamp Oil
Price player showed some speed and stopped on the drop last out, but that was his first start in almost three months, so there's a chance he breaks well and tries to take it to them from this outside draw.


#8 Rahaal
Didn't miss by much with similar in the local debut, but his late-running style will likely leave him with plenty of work to do late.


#9 West Coast Broker
Has been slowly heading in the right direction through four career starts, and a repeat of his last would keep him right in the mix here. Any step forward probably lands it for him.


Race Summary
Lamp Oil can show sharp pace from the outside, and if he's able to clear most of these without too much trouble, he has some chance to try to steal it.


Will Rogers Downs - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Gospel Musketier
Can't imagine this guy is going offer the 12/1 ML price, as he owns a ceiling high enough to compete with the best in here. The cold barn and the layoff are the obvious issues.


#11 United Patriot
Doesn't always fire his best stuff, but he owns several races from the last year that would probably make short work of these.


#2 Dak Da Man
Reliable finisher gets a tougher test today, but he tends to show up every time and may rally for a slice underneath.


Race Summary
Gospel Musketier has to overcome a break and a barn that has had no success this meet, but he was getting pretty good near the end of the 2019 campaign, and I love the aggressive placement off the layoff.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Fonner Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#4 Gotgetmbugs
Ran on well for 2nd and was 6.5 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse last time; anything close to that effort gets her the victory. Mare can beat the boys here.


#5 Creeds Revenge
Was 3rd in his last two after breaking his maiden; gets hot-riding Arrieta back for the mount.


#6 Leon's Diamond
Cruised home with an easy maiden win last out and can be along for a piece of this one.


Race Summary
Gotgetmbugs is mare taking on males again and was 2nd by many vs. similar company last time; ready to move on to her next set or conditions.


Fonner Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 Born Force
Has been took far back recently and he'll get plenty of pace to chase today; can score with a strong late move.


#1 Giant Gamble
Has been a solid front runner going 6 or 6.5F and lost a two-race streak last time when he was caught late; one to catch.


#4 Frankalee Fun
Has some races on his form that would win this but has run evenly in his last two; was impressive in a win three races back and seeks to get back to that form.


Race Summary
Born Force has a big late move when he fires and he'll a good pace in front of him; expect him around to decide this one.


Fonner Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#1 Viscosity
Has been vs. decent company, has the tactical speed to get a good trip and can score in his 1st one at Fonner since running 2nd there in March. Ships back from Will Rogers Downs and is well placed for this one.


#7 Rulethenight
Early speed makes him a strong face in this one and he could set the pace; expect big improvement today.


#6 Ima Sooners Fan
Faded at Will Rogers in his last one and gets some class relief here; drops to the bottom, gets Manrrique aboard. Legit threat.


Race Summary
Viscosity can carve out a good trip just off the pace and the class to prevail at this level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Will Rogers Downs Picks 5/19

Tue May 19, 2020 6:27 am
Spring Steen comes in second and we hit a small exacta in the 8th that paid $16.00. Today I have three races from Will Rogers and Race 9 is another Stakes race. Stay safe.

Race 1
#3 Miss Gemma $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-7-10

Race 4
#10 Thunder Road $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 10-8-4

Race 9
#6 Quality Rocket $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-11-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park



Fonner Park - Race 4

Dinsdale Automotive Pick 5 - $5,000 Minimum Gross Pool Guarantee - .50 Pick 5 Jackpot (races 5-9) / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)



Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $5,400 • Post: 5:21P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 19, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. GOLDEN BULLET is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOLDEN BULLET: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. ALL FOR TRUTH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OHTANI: Today's race is a route, horse is a Front-runner and is in post posit ion one. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



2

GOLDEN BULLET

2/1


5/2




6

ALL FOR TRUTH

7/2


7/1




1

OHTANI

10/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

ALL FOR TRUTH

6


7/2

Front-runner

82


77


67.0


67.0


59.5




7

CLIFF'S PLACE

7


8/1

Front-runner

79


61


66.0


54.6


43.6




1

OHTANI

1


10/1

Alternator/Front-runner

79


71


67.6


60.4


54.9




2

GOLDEN BULLET

2


2/1

Alternator/Stalker

90


87


65.6


75.8


70.8




5

SPOTITUDE

5


3/1

Trailer

73


69


40.4


57.7


51.7




4

AMERIPOINT

4


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

73


73


54.4


65.0


54.0




3

THE ROCK ROLLS

3


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

84


89


58.0


58.0


48.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,150 Class Rating: 58

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#10 ROSES FOR DOUG (ML=8/1)
#3 DIAMONATA (ML=5/2)
#9 LAKESIDE ROMANCE (ML=8/1)


ROSES FOR DOUG - The ROI when Eikleberry and Raven hook up is outstanding. Dropping in class rating points from her April 29th race at Will Rogers Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the advantage. Raven is hoping to get a little more out of this filly by adding blinkers today. DIAMONATA - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter distance and should aid her likelihood of winning. In the last race, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Will Rogers Downs. Should do much better in this event. LAKESIDE ROMANCE - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This filly recorded a good speed figure of 45 in her last race. That fig should be good enough to score in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LOS SUENOS (ML=3/1), #5 TWILIGHT GLOW (ML=5/1), #1 LG SHEZA RANDOMCAT (ML=8/1),

LOS SUENOS - This filly is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Tough to play her on the win end. This vulnerable equine hasn't been close to the winner at the finish line of late. TWILIGHT GLOW - Can't play this questionable contender in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race recently. LG SHEZA RANDOMCAT - Doubtful that the speed figure she garnered on April 13th will hold up in this clash.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #10 ROSES FOR DOUG to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,10] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11550 Class Rating: 69

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 9 WEST COAST BROKER 5/1




# 8 RAHAAL 3/1




# 12 LAMP OIL 15/1




WEST COAST BROKER is the best wager in this race. Recently Tohill has been on fire which may give the edge to this gelding. Tohill will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out sharply for this event. Should definitely be carefully examined in this contest if only for the competitive speed figure put up in the last race. RAHAAL - Expect this animal to be close up on the wire versus these mounts. Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses. LAMP OIL - Is a solid choice - given the 55 speed figure from his most recent race. Is hard not to examine given the company run in lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Fonner Park - Race #8 - Post: 7:09pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,700 Class Rating: 75

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 FAMILY CODE (ML=8/1)
#7 RULETHENIGHT (ML=5/2)
#1 VISCOSITY (ML=6/1)


FAMILY CODE - Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Lemburg enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. This animal could be tough today, especially since Olesiak rode in the last race and now should be better acquainted with this one. This gelding has run pretty well on the sod. Often that form translates to success at a track like this where the turns are sharp. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I think can be a valuable handicapping aspect. This thoroughbred is ranked number one in this bunch. RULETHENIGHT - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Compton enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. VISCOSITY - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier field than in the last race at Will Rogers Downs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PRIMARILY GOLD (ML=4/1), #5 HOLIDAY JOKE (ML=6/1),

PRIMARILY GOLD - This animal hasn't been hitting the board in either of his last couple of races. The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this racer as a likely underlay. HOLIDAY JOKE - This animal likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. Don't feel this questionable contender will make an impact today. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 FAMILY CODE is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

4 with [1,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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