Service Plays Saturday 6/27/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Race of the Week: Ohio Derby from Thistledown June 25, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 3 $500,000 OHIO DERBY AT THISTLEDOWN
Saturday, June 27, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Parlay your Belmont Stakes excitement with Derby Day in greater Cleveland. Thistledown's Ohio Derby program is a 9-race offering with the $500,000 main event slated for Race 8 and a 4:22 pm ET post. A capacity field of 14 could contest the 1-1/8 miles event, whose history dates back to 1876 and has been won by the likes of 1924 Kentucky Derby winner Black Gold, as well as more contemporary stars like Lost Code and Skip Away.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner STORM THE COURT has this field's signature victory. Listed stakes winners ROWDY YATES, LEBDA and SOUTH BEND all are Grade 3-placed. SOROS also is a listed stakes winner. STORM THE COURT has a decided class edge on strength of schedules.

Pace:
The inside 5 runners all have some interest in being near the lead, as does BEAR ALLEY, ESTABLISHED and widest-drawn CELTIC STRIKER. This appears to be a hot pace, and the removal of blinkers and wide draw for STORM THE COURT likely will have him a bit farther off the pace than his past running lines suggest. That might be a good thing in this scenario.

Our Eyes:
STORM THE COURT brings regular pilot and recently crowned Santa Anita champ Flavien Prat with him to Ohio. The question of travel remains with last year's 2-year-old champion. His only roadie was his worst career performance, a tired 6th by 12 lengths in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. There are no Nadal-level runners in Saturday's lineup, to be sure, but there is some concern how STORM THE COURT will fair away from home. Trainer Peter Eurton brought Core Beliefs here in 2018 from California to win this race. His workouts seen at XBTV.com since the Arkansas Derby have been decidedly stronger than he was earlier in the year. STORM THE COURT spots the field 4-6 pounds over an extended distance and has to overcome a wide post draw. He's the horse to beat, but you're not out of line for exploring.

ROWDY YATES and CODE RUNNER compete uncoupled for Steve Asmussen, who has had runners finish third, fourth and third in the Ohio Derby over the past 3 editions. ROWDY YATES takes his track with him, from the last year's Ellis Park Derby to the Oklahoma Classics to this year's Riley Allison Derby in New Mexico and the Saudi Cup Derby in the Middle East. His sire Morning Line has had strong success with his offspring at Thistledown (25% wins, 55% in exacta), according to 1/ST BET stats. But the 1-1/8 miles distance is the biggest question for a colt whose been best around a mile and his pedigree screams miler. CODE RUNNER should be the longer price of the pair and may be the lean at 9 furlongs. He's bred top and bottom for distance, and finished very strong in his June 8 allowance win at Lone Star Park.

LEBDA is second choice on the morning line at 7-2 for high percentage Maryland trainer Claudio Gonzalez. LEBDA is 3-for-4 at Laurel Park and 1-for-4 on the road. He caught a soft cast of 3-year-olds this winter at Laurel compared to the past few years. His pedigree leans more toward a miler, but was able to stretch 1-1/16 miles in the Private Terms as the 6-5 favorite. This is a much tougher test and the early pace figures to be competitive. The barn did bring Sneaky Betty to Thistledown to finish second in stakes company in 2018, but rarely ventures outside the Mid-Atlantic (if not for Aqueduct). Among the lower prices, I'm standing against him.

SOROS travels north from Florida where he was most recently 7 lengths behind Dr Post in the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park. That performance doesn't look nearly as bad after Dr Post returned to run a clear-cut, second-best in last week's Belmont Stakes. Top local pilot Luan Machado gets the mount, and I like to see when seasoned local riders pick up talented ship-in mounts. Familiarity with the course can be a boost.

Fellow Floridian UNRIGHTEOUS has a strong jockey-trainer combo of Deshawn Parker and Todd Pletcher, not that they've done so together. Parker has ridden more than 5,700 winners, ranking between Jerry Bailey and Mike Smith at No. 22 on the all-time victories list. Pletcher makes his first Ohio Derby appearance since 2016 and looks to add this race's trophy to his expansive mantel. UNRIGHTEOUS didn't fire in the Tampa Bay Derby while a maiden, but has since delivered a clear-cut victory at Gulfstream Park around 2 turns. He's from a female family that includes several 3YO second-tier route stakes winners of races like the El Camino Real Derby, Spiral and Super Derby. Sire Violence gets a rousing 31% winners at Thistledown, according to 1/ST BET stats. Post 14 does him no favors, however.

SOUTH BEND opened his career 3-for-3 on dirt before his connections tried to make a turf horse out of him. He's lost his speed of late, and the removal of blinkers may not be a recipe to find it for most, but might work for him. He showed more early interest at the outset of his career without the shades. Veteran pilot Rafael Bejarano is a cool hand in the saddle in a $500,000 race. SOUTH BEND could wake up Saturday despite 7 straight losses.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: SOUTH BEND is 4-for-4 in the superfecta on fast dirt (3 wins) and has the right, closing running style for this race shape. He's held classier company lines than most of these.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SPRAWL is 15-1 in the morning line and notably unbeaten around 2 turns on dirt. He scored a Keeneland maiden victory last fall and a May 28 Churchill allowance in his only chances to stretch his legs. In-between there have been 6 losses in 1-turn affairs to cloud his form. The damsire Awesome Again projects this one better over the trip for renowned trainer Bill Mott.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 win SPRAWL. $5 exacta key-box SPRAWL with SOUTH BEND, STORM THE COURT, SOROS, UNRIGHTEOUS and CODE RUNNER ($50).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns!


Make sure you're following Mike on Twitter @Mike5754 for last minute updates and questions.

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1 Kyle Busch 5-1
2 Kevin Harvick 5-1
3 Denny Hamlin 7-1
4 Martin Truex Jr 7-1
5 Chase Elliott 15-2
6 Brad Keselowski 8-1
7 Joey Logano 10-1
8 Ryan Blaney 12-1
9 Kurt Busch 22-1
10 Clint Bowyer 28-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Tyler Reddick
12 Alex Bowman
13 Jimmie Johnson
14 Erik Jones
15 William Byron
16 Aric Almirola
17 Matt DiBenedetto
18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
19 Ryan Newman
20 Cole Custer
21 Matt Kenseth
22 Christopher Bell
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Austin Dillon
25 Chris Buescher
26 Daniel Suarez
27 Ty Dillon
28 Michael McDowell
29 Corey Lajoie
30 Ryan Preece
31 John H. Nemechek
32 Timmy Hill
33 Brennan Poole
34 Garrett Smithley
35 Joey Gase
36 JJ Yeley
37 Quin Houff
38 BJ McLeod
39 Gray Gaulding

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, June 27: Stars Shine in Churchill All-Stakes Late Pick June 24, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian
Talk about a weekend for watching horse racing’s shining stars.

On Saturday at Churchill, horses like Midnight Bisou, Tom’s d’Etat, By My Standards, Serengeti Empress and Owendale are among the entries. And Saturday’s Belmont slate includes Uni, Newspaperofrecord, Promises Fulfilled and Come Dancing.

And for the cherry on top, on Saturday just outside of Cleveland, Ohio the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ, Storm the Court, takes on a full field in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Not a bad day to play the races, huh?

The Churchill All-Stakes Late Pick 4 jumped out to our team, so we have made it a 1 Million XB Rewards Point bet. What does that mean? Well, it’s simple. Hit that bet with your Xpressbet account and you’ll win a Split of XB Rewards Points. Rewards Points are a currency around here – think of them like airline miles – but instead of redeeming for magazine subscriptions, you can redeem for betting vouchers and past performances. The fewer people that hit the All-Stakes Pick 4, the most Points each winner receives.

The All-Stakes Pick 4 at Churchill covers Races 8 – 11 and gets underway at 4:43PM ET. Here’s my take on the sequence. Spoiler alert – if it’s ‘bombs away’ in any of the races, I won’t be a winner.

Race 8 (4:43PM ET) – Bashford Manor Stakes (G3, $100K)

On paper, this race is more of a coronation of Steve Asmussen’s #6 CAZADERO than it is a horse race. After all, the 81 Beyer Speed Figure he earned on debut at Churchill on May 29 is 20+ points higher than any other horse in the field has received (although, worth noting that Beyers are not assigned for the debuts of three of these horses). I’ll use him alongside #5 HERD IMMUNITY, who was, let’s say ‘professional’ on debut for Peter Miller at Santa Anita on June 6. Miller does extremely well with 2YO’s and he should move forward from that first race.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 HERD IMMUNITY (9/2), #6 CAZADERO (8/5)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #3 GATSBY (4/1), #5 HYPERFOCUS (4/1), #7 COUNTY FINAL (6/1)

Race 9 (5:15PM ET) – Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2, $200K)

Many handicappers will check the box next to #5 MIDNIGHT BISOU and go on to the next one. And it’s hard to blame them. She’s 12-for-20 in her career and is coming off a 3/4-length defeat behind Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup on February 29. I’m going to double my ticket cost and add in #4 SERENGETI EMPRESS as I think she has a legitimate shot to steal this race. She loves Churchill and there isn’t a lot of speed in here, which should pave her path to the front. And after her debacle in the G1 Apple Blossom (never made the lead and tired to 11th) you have to assume that Joe Talamo will push her hard out of the gate to establish the lead. Can Midnight Bisou reel her in? In her first start since February and her second in nearly eight months, it’s not impossible to believe she could need one.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #4 SERENGETI EMPRESS (2/1), #5 MIDNIGHT BISOU (3/5)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: None

Race 10 (5:47PM ET) – Stephen Foster Handicap (G2, $500K)

Let’s treat this as a two horse race as well, using #5 TOM’S D’ETAT and #6 BY MY STANDARDS. TOM’S D’ETAT is the class of the bunch, having won 10-of-17 and three straight, including the Oaklawn Mile last out over Improbable. But if there’s one hitch in his giddyup, it’s that regular rider, Joel Rosario, isn’t in town to ride and he’s going to be chasing BY MY STANDARDS, who is certainly no slouch. He has won three straight races (and five of his last six) with the lone defeat since January 2019 coming in the ’19 KY Derby. He’s going to sit a phenomenal trip just off #2 PIRATE’S PUNCH and they’ll need to bring their running shoes to catch him.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 TOM’S D’ETAT (1/1), #6 BY MY STANDARDS (5/2)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #8 OWENDALE (4/1)

Race 11 (6:20PM ET) – Regret Stakes (G3, $100K)

With most of the horses in here coming out of Tepin Stakes (the race that produced Royal Ascot runner-up, Sharing) we have to ask – do you use all of them or look elsewhere? I lean toward the latter approach. I thought #5 CRYSTAL CLIFFS ran a great race in her US debut for Graham Motion on May 31 and she should jump forward off that performance. The only other horses I think I need are #6 MICHELINE, who ran huge at Gulfstream in the Honey Ryder Stakes on May 2, and #13 HENDY WOODS is stuck with a terrible post but has tactical speed and this is a field where she could work out a trip.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 CRYSTAL CLIFFS (3/1), #6 MICHELINE (8/1)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #1 DOMINGA (5/1), #4 IN GOOD SPIRITS (8/1), #9 EVE OF WAR (12/1), #13 HENDY WOODS (15/1)

My Ticket

Race 8: 5,6
Race 9: 4,5
Race 10: 5,6
Race 11: 5,6

Ticket Cost: $16 for $1.00 Base

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis June 27, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 13-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout. If the weather forecast is correct the track will probably not be fast.

Race 6

1-Southwind Avenger (5-1)-Tuned-up at YR with a sharp effort from the 8-hole and was parked so maybe Lasix is making a difference. McCarthy takes a spin and is 2-2 on a wet track.
3-Don't Let'em (3-1)-This is a fast horse who is a risky play in almost every start but is hard to leave out. Hasn't won on an off-track and hopefully will offer a decent price.
4-Reign Of Honor (7/2)-Came 3rd at TgDn versus tough company after taking a picture here. Merlander barn is hot and it's best to not overlook.

Race 7

1-Tall Dark Stranger (5/2)-Not going to single but was worthy of that type of respect. Last qualifier was razor sharp and even though 3-year-old faces older this is a world class horse. Could win and tune-up for the upcoming Pace Elims.
2-Western Joe (5-1)-#1 hasn't raced on an off-track and there is a good chance of rainy weather so will use Joe just in case. Does step-up off a win but fits with this group and should be on the engine or in the pocket.

Race 8

1-Ideal Feeling (5-1)-Won in 148.4 last week, likes the Big M and has won 2 of 4 on an off-track. Does meet tougher company but Tetrick should keep in play throughout.
3-Franco Totem N (7/2)-Liked this guy last week and he came 2nd but raced well. Could be better tonight and comes off a quick mile and raced near the lead. Best to respect, especially with this post draw and Dunn sticks.
10-Flaming Flutter N (3-1)-Takes a big bump up after being rimmed the mile and winning in 149.1 with a 26.1 last quarter. Oh, and not to forget that was the US debut. 2nd time Lasix and does not show a start on an off-track.

Race 9

2-Filibuster Hanover (9/2)-No chance in a needed start at TgDn but can be a factor here. Should be fine on a wet track and has banked >$330 in East Rutherford facing tough foes. Only 1 picture in last 19 tries but that could change tonight.
3-Trojan Banner N (8-1)-Will swing for a price, loses Tetrick to #7 but D. Miller should be up to the task and barn has been hot. Needs a big effort but did race a 148.4 mile last week with a 26.2 last quarter and the trip wasn't great.
4-Sintra (5/2)-Raced well in 1st start off the bench at this class. Has won 6 of 9 on an off-track and has 2 wins in 5 Big M starts. Looks to be a major player and Gingras will have in play.
7-Donttellmegain (5-1)-Looking for 1st win on an off-track but did hit the board in all 4 starts and has won 4 of 8 Big M races. Six-year-old has a 147.2 mark here, the question is how fast he will go in 2nd race after the re-start.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3,4/1,2/1,3,10/2,3,4,7
Total Bet=$36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers/Best Plays - 6/27/20 June 27, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS/BEST PLAYS FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s Day Makers and Best Plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value while Best Plays isolate likely winners and logical rolling exotic singles. Each selection also should be given strong consideration as a key in vertical plays such as exactas and trifectas. NOTE: Selections are listed chronologically according to listed post time.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 5TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:10 ET
2 – PIT BOSS (5-1) – Day Maker

Talented maiden is improving with racing – according to his speed figures – and with another forward move today the son of Union Rags could be set to spring a mild surprise while stretching out to 9.5 furlongs on the main track and catching a field without much speed. Exits a pair of stronger-than-par maiden races and today catches a field that looks average at best. With a healthy work tab since raced and with the switch to good speed rider M. Garcia, the W. Catalano-trained colt may find himself as the controlling speed, though his deep-closing rally when second in his debut indicates he can be effective with patient tactics as well. There’s value here to be found at or near his morning line of 5-1.

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BELMONT PARK – 5TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:37 ET
5 – FLYING FINISH (7/2) – Best Play

Walked out of the gate and gave himself an impossible task when closing well but too late in a fifth place finish in his debut at Gulfstream Park in early May vs. open maiden-special-weight foes and then was impressive on the gallop-out (he was in front of the pack at the clubhouse turn), so we know the natural talent is there. Hopefully, the son of Pioneerof the Nile leaves with his field today, and at this extended sprint trip the A. Margotta, Jr.-trained colt may be able to produce the last run. I. Ortiz got to know him in Florida, stays aboard, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll have a gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 6TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:41 ET
6 – PARIS LIGHTS (2-1) – Best Play

Won like a future star when breaking her maiden by nearly seven lengths in her first try around two-turns over this track and distance last month and seems well-spotted to repeat on the raise in this entry-level allowance affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Curlin has a good stalking style that should keep her clear of trouble, and in a race that projects to have a better-than-average early pace she should be able to settle in mid-pack and then produce a winning kick when called up. At 2-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play at or near that price and also a rolling exotic single.

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WOODBINE – 8TH RACE. POST TIME 4:42 ET
5-ELIZABETH WAY-IRE (4-1) – Day Maker

Irish-bred mare shows up north of the border for Nassau S.-G2, a one-turn grass miler for fillies and mares that fits her like a glove. Though primarily a marathoner in her nine-race career, the daughter of Frankel appears to be most comfortable at a middle distance, and after recording two solid recent workouts for her Canadian-based trainer she should be primed for a breakout performance at what we expect will be close to her 4-1 morning line. She can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace, so E. J. Wilson can assess the early pace flow and then pick the proper early position.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 8TH RACE. POST TIME: 4:43 ET
6 – CAZADERO (8/5) – Best Play

Seems certain to go lower than his morning line of 8/5 and therefore will be too short to play straight but the son of Street Sense, a visually impressive maiden debut winner over the local main track last month, looks very difficult to deny right back in this year’s edition of the Bashford Manner S.-G3 for 2-year-olds. On pure speed figures he’s a standout, and the way the S. Asmussen-trained colt lengthened out with power in the final stages in his nearly nine length romp over five furlongs makes him likely to be even more dominant at today’s six panel trip. We’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single.

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LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE – 3RD RACE. POST TIME 1:58 PT
5 – DISCO BALL (9/5) – Best Play

Been away almost a year but we’re expecting this talented 3-year-old to return better than he left in this six furlong maiden sprint. In his only start last year at Del Mar, the son of Orb was forced to race under severe pressure throughout while being mired down in the extremely deep inside lane yet continued to battle back bravely in the final stages and was beaten only a half-length by subsequent stakes winner Collusion Illusion. Sharp recent drills – including a bullet :47 3/5 half mile move (fastest of 57) just six days ago – indicate this B. Koriner-trained colt is ready to roll. At his morning line of 9/5 he’s a strong win play, but if he goes lower we can still him with confidence as a rolling exotic single.

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BELMONT PARK – 8TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:04 ET
7-MEAN MARY (7/2) – Best Play

Though she doesn’t need the lead to win, this daughter of Scat Daddy seems certain to accept the role as the controlling speed in the 10-furlong turf New York S.-G2 for fillies and mares, and given that kind of trip she has an excellent opportunity to take this field gate-to-wire. The lightly-raced 4-year-old filly, a two-time graded stakes winner at Gulfstream Park this past winter, tackles tougher foes today but based on the projected race flow and speed figures that shows she’s improving with every start the G. Motion-trained filly should have every chance to extend her winning streak to four. There’s good gambling value at or near her morning line of 7/2, so let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

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GULFSTREAM PARK – 11TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:18 ET
3 – QUEEN NEKIA (4-1) – Day Maker

Dangerous at any distance but appearing most comfortable in one-turn races, this veteran mare should fire her best shot in the listed Added Elegance S. for older distaffers at this one mile trip. Never off the board in five career starts over the local main track and in the frame in 20 of 25 career outings, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained daughter of Harlington is as thoroughly genuine and consistent as they come, and her speed figures indicate that she’s more than good enough to regain her winning form after competing in graded stakes races in her last pair. With the switch to one of this barn’s go-to riders, S. Camacho, she should be along in time while offering good value at or near her morning line of 4-1.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 10TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:47 ET
6 – BY MY STANDARDS (5/2) – Best Play

Gets the acid test in this year’s renewal of the Stephen Foster S.-G2 and most likely will need a career top effort to upset Tom’s d’Etat but the son of Goldencents continues to improve with each outing and just might be able to pull it off. A winner of five of his last six starts (the defeat being his 12th place finish in the rodeo that was the Kentucky Derby), the son of Goldecents owns a superior pace-prompting style that always seems to ensure an easy, clean trip. That’s what we’re expecting today, as the B. Calhoun-trained colt is comfortably drawn outside the projected leader, Pirate’s Punch, and should be able to use that long shot as a target before being set down. If you can get close to his morning line of 5/2, he’ll be worth a gamble against the heavily-backed favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

June 27: Cross Country P5 Features Belmont & Churchill June 25, 2020
ELMONT, N.Y. - The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will partner with Churchill Downs and Thistledown to host a Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday, June 27.

The wager, featuring all graded stakes races across the three tracks, will have live coverage of all the races in the sequence available with America's Day at the Races on Fox Sports and MSG+.

Thistledown, located in North Randall, Ohio, will kick off the sequence with the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby. The Buckeye State's premier race will be a Kentucky Derby prep race for the first time with the "Run for the Roses" being moved to September due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Carded as Race 8 at 4:22 p.m. Eastern, the Ohio Derby will award 20-8-4-2 qualifying points to the top-four finishers. Among the contenders is Storm the Court, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November who is winless in three starts this year, though he did finish third in the Grade 2 San Felipe in March at Santa Anita. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen will enter a pair of contenders in Rowdy Yates and Code Runner, who ran eighth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby before defeating allowance company earlier this month at Lone Star.

Action will shift to Belmont Park for the second leg, with the Grade 2, $150,000 True North for 4-year-olds and up in Race 9 at 5:36 p.m. Grade 1-winner Promises Fulfilled returns off a more than eight month layoff as part of an eight-horse field that also includes Yorkton, a multiple graded-stakes winner on synthetic, who is seeking his first win on the main track.

For the Pick 5's third race, Churchill will take its star turn with the Grade 2, $500,000 Stephen Foster in Race 10 at 5:47 p.m. A "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Keeneland, the Stephen Foster, for 4-year-olds and up contesting at 1 1/8 miles, will see Tom's d'Etat, a winner of three straight, including the Grade 1 Clark in November over the same track, breaking from post 5 for trainer Al Stall, Jr. Other contenders include By My Standards, the winner of the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic and the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, and Owendale, the winner of the Blame at Churchill on May 23.

Belmont will host the fourth leg with the Grade 1, $250,000 Just a Game for fillies and mares 4-years-old and up going one mile on the Widener turf in Race 10 at 6:08 p.m. Trainer Chad Brown, seeking his fourth straight win in the race, will saddle three of the seven contenders, including the top-two morning line selections in 7-5 Uni and 8-5 Newspaperofrecord, along with Regal Glory [10-1].

Defending Champion Turf Mare Uni will make her 2020 debut in the Just a Game, having not raced since taking last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita, where she became the sixth female to score a win in the race.

Newspaperofrecord arrives off a win Grade 3 Intercontinental on June 6 over the Widener turf. Other contenders include Got Stormy, Beau Recall, Valedictorian and Zofelle.

Closing out the sequence will be the Grade 3, $100,000 Regret at Churchill in Race 11 at 6:20 p.m. Two-time stakes-winning filly Micheline will be in search of her first graded stakes victory as part of a 13-horse field. Harvey's Lil Goil, winner of the Busanda in February at Aqueduct Racetrack, drew post 10.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

Cross Country Pick 5 - Saturday, June 27:

Leg 1 - Thistledown, Race 8: Grade 3 Ohio Derby (4:22 p.m.)
Leg 2 - Belmont, Race 9: Grade 2 True North (5:36 p.m.)
Leg 3 - Churchill, Race 10: Grade 2 Stephen Foster (5:47 p.m.)
Leg 4 - Belmont, Race 10: Grade 1 Just a Game (6:08 p.m.)
Leg 5 - Churchill, Race 11: Grade 3 Regret (6:20 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Belmont Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 Royal Charlotte
Stalker for Brown got caught on the hard chase in the mud to a Lone F winner last time off the break and held well to be 2nd, should get a kinder pace scenario today, has every right to improve second-off the long break, and catches a tough to trust favorite; look out.


#5 Come Dancing
Aforementioned chalk wins this by 5 with her best, but we also haven't seen that since September, and while you can make excuses for her two (both were out of town, the last at two turns), she also didn't run an inch, and could be a bit long in the tooth; making her prove it.


#3 Chalon
Tricky read was scratched out of Royal Charlotte's race last time and will run now as a newly minted 6yo, so not only did she miss her prep, but we've seen the favorite come up a bit wanting at 6 too, so sure, on her day she's right there, but what you get here is a guess; tabbing.


Race Summary
You'll get fair value on the 1, and that's because they will bet the 5 hard and the 3 will take money too, but the pick has more upside than those two gals combined, and gives the impression she's sitting on a lifetime best run, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling her to kick off the late Pk5, since this could be the last time you could get her a price if she delivers like expected.


Belmont Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#7 Mean Mary
Streaking miss wired a pair of GP GIII's going longer and is still improving after just six starts, is in expert hands for Motion, and will either be loose on the lead or just off from the outside of what figures to be a modest pace, and yet she won't be favored either; onward and upward.


#1 Call Me Love
Deserving favorite was a huge 2nd in her US debut for a loose millionaire and multiple GI winner Rushing Fall going shorter last time, and now she stretches out to 1 1/4 miles, where's 5-for-6 in Europe, but the pick has a big tactical edge, and the Euro-bounce is in play here; second-best.


#6 Mrs Sippy
The more fancied (on the ML) of the two Motion gals hasn't been out since a poor run in the BC, though the close 2nd to Sistercharlie in the GI Flower Bowl over the course/distance was heady stuff, though her lack of speed, and this long break, won't help; runs out of room in the lane.


Race Summary
The price and the pace will both be right on the 7, who has a lot of positives in her corner, not to mention she's got every right to improve once again, as opposed to the 1 who could come back to the pack a bit, so play her to win and place, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she looks primed to win her fourth straight, tougher competition and all.


Belmont Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 Wait For It
Longshot was a decent 4th going long in his only graded stakes try and now steps way up, while cutting back to one-turn for just the second time on his page, but he catches a group loaded with early speed, has a few figures that put him in the mix here, and, aside from the heavy chalk, there's no one else here he's supposed to be scared of; bombs away in the lane.


#7 Promises Fulfilled
Aforementioned heavy favorite is a GI winner and will be tough here, especially if he delivers even his B+ game, let alone his A one, but he hasn't run since a no-show in October, which came after a real dud in August, is now 5, and has speed on both sides, while going a tricky 6 1/2 Fs too, all at a very short price, which makes him very tough to trust; backwheel time.


#3 Wicked Trick
Veteran saw a six-race winning streak snapped when he stepped up and ran 5th as the favorite in a listed stakes last time, so he's out of his element on the class scale here, but he's another who will like the expected hot and contested pace, so while a win seems out of reach, he should be rally in the lane for what could be a nice share; eligible to spice up your exotics.


Race Summary
Pace makes the race and there's plenty of it here, and the favorites (including the unmentioned #8 Firenze Fire) have plenty of it, and there's no guarantee the 7 fires off the long break, and sure, the pick is a real reach, but the flow suits him, and the risk-reward is there in spades too, so give him a look in all the slots, and the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's not the worst stab in the world, and a win would absolutely blow up both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Churchill Downs - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#7 Amani's Eagle
Asmussen barn has done good work in these longer-distance main track maiden races over the years, and this guy might appreciate getting back on a fast main track.


#3 Ashiham
Beaten at 9-5 and 6-5 in his last two, the price might be a touch better this time around. Still, he looked really tough on paper last out and was pretty flat in the lane.


#1 Tonaltalitarian
Lack of early speed has been an issue for him, so perhaps the addition of blinkers will get him in the race a bit sooner this time around.


Race Summary
Amani's Eagle can bounce back off the modest run last time out, and something like the two-back run would probably do the trick with these.


Churchill Downs - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#6 By My Standards
Has been awesome so far in his 2020 campaign, and he handled a good bunch with ease last out at Oaklawn. Tom's d'Etat will be a tougher test for him today, but he might be up to it.


#5 Tom's d'Etat
Short price is the clear one to beat with a long string of sharp races that would probably get the job done with these. He gives away a slight tactical advantage, but he always comes with a big run.


#8 Owendale
Ran much better than I thought he would going one turn last time out, and his best game is running around two turns. He's got the right kind of upside at the right time for this spot. Not impossible.


Race Summary
By My Standards has been getting better and better this season, and he made himself another perfect trip in the Oaklawn win last out. With a clean break, he'll be right behind the splits again here and can get the jump on the chalk.


Churchill Downs - Race #11


Picks
Notes


#13 Hendy Woods
Price player has done nothing wrong in a pair of wins so far, and she's probably quick enough to find a decent spot into the turn from this high draw.


#5 Crystal Cliffs
She's one of the ones in here off the very nice stateside debut for Motion last time out, and her tactical pace should keep her in great spot.


#4 In Good Spirits
Outran the 58-1 price last time out when settling for a good fourth behind a Breeders' Cup winner, and she figures to find the front end again today.


Race Summary
Hendy Woods gets tested for class today, but she fits well enough off the nice allowance win at Fair Grounds to think she can make an impact with these at a solid price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 SUNDOWN KID
Good form cycle, proven in sire stakes, offers fair value.


#3 THE WILD CARD
Second to promising rival, will be underlay as a result.


#9 PRIVATE SCOTT
Strong rallies for a win and a second at 5/8-mile oval.


Race Summary
Sundown Kid improved in his second start back, rallying mildly into a fast pace. He hit peak form in sire stakes action last fall and could be rounding to a top effort. Play 2-3 and 2-9 exactas.


Meadowlands - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 LETSCHASETHEDREAM N
Took the money and ran to 23rd lifetime win, take right back.


#4 SWEET ROCK
Classy 9yo was in range through a 1:22.3 third-quarter split in comeback.


#1 AINTNOBETTOR A
Third in blanket finish from post 9, gets second-time Lasix.


Race Summary
Late money poured in on Letschasethedream N and the 8-year-old poured it on with a sharp, front-end victory in 1:50.2. He has plenty of back class to handle the step up in competition. Play 8-1 and 8-4 exactas.


Hawthorne - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 VEGAS HIGHROLLER
Right set-up, right price in weak field, key in exotics.


#6 HARD HEADED WOMEN
Used up against odds-on repeater, goes long way in here.


#1 CENTRAL FIRECRACKER
Useful comeback, has speed and rail, barn is winless this year.


Race Summary
Vegas Highroller is 30/5-7-5 but ‘needed race’ against better on the comeback trail. She projects a good stalking trip against suspect front runners, so play 2-1 and 2-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#7 Starship Apollo
A real pro with 14 wins to his credit; takes a step down in class and can get back to winning ways.


#5 Dr Harlan
Has been in some decent sprints and could be much closer to the pace in this one; look for an improved effort.


#3 Venezuelan Warrior
Drops out a longer race at Tampa and was claimed off a win in his 1st of the year; Arriagada has him well placed today.


Race Summary
Starship Apollo has been claimed many times in his career, and the Sancat barn won win him earlier in the year. Has enough speed to be a strong factor at once and has the class to put them away.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Gran Saman
Has dropped back early in some extremely fast races lately and should be able to stay within range today; has a good late move and can show up today.


#9 Go Gone Gone
Is a main track only entrant and was claimed in his last; won and was 2nd in his last two, which both came off the turf. Will be tough if rain forces a move.


#4 Sturgeon
Won an allowance race in February and takes a big drop after poor finishes in his last two; could wake up here.


Race Summary
Gran Saman can secure a good inside trip today and should find that these will come back to him in the closing yards.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#2 My Friend Flavin
Has run some good races over this strip and was 3rd last time in his 1st one here this year; can advance off that effort and is likely to improve.


#4 Combination
Steps up from $12,500, where his last three and six of his last seven; Maker barn does well off claims.


#5 Cajun Firecracker
Local stakes winner was claimed two back by Maker, dropped in class and finished 3rd; takes another drop -- not necessarily a great sign.


Race Summary
My Friend Flavin has won three over the GP strip and was 3rd off a layoff last time. He's the most likely to improve here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

UFC (Sat) Dan Hooker +
UFC (Sat) Brendan Allen -315
UFC (Sat) Muarice Greene -220
UFC (Sat) Phillepe Lins -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

GOLF

The model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a whopping +3000 return

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the final two rounds of Travelers Championship.

The 2020 Travelers Championship projected leaderboard, according to SportsLine's model (posted 6/26/20). Odds courtesy William Hill:

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Rory McIlroy (9-2) - (15.8% sim win)
2. Xander Schauffele (9-1) - (10.4%)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (8-1) - (9.8%)
4. Phil Mickelson (9-2) - (8.2%)
5. Patrick Cantlay (28-1) - (6.7%)
6. Marc Leishman (14-1) - (5.5%)
7. Viktor Hovland (20-1) - (5.1%)
8. Jon Rahm (28-1) - (4.4%)
9. Abraham Ancer (16-1) - (4.2%)
10. Mackenzie Hughes (14-1) - (3.9%)

The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:

11 Will Gordon
12 Dustin Johnson
13 Brendon Todd
14 Kevin Na
15 Sergio Garcia
16 Brendan Steele
17 Kevin Streelman
18 Paul Casey
19 Zach Johnson
20 Joaquin Niemann
21 Sungjae Im
22 Patrick Reed
23 Jim Furyk
24 Louis Oosthuizen
25 Sung Kang
26 Lanto Griffin
27 Emiliano Grillo
28 Doc Redman
29 Brian Stuard
30 Troy Merritt
31 Ian Poulter
32 Shane Lowry
33 Michael Thompson
34 Kyle Stanley
35 Joel Dahmen
36 Jason Day
37 Rafa Cabrera Bello
38 Brandt Snedeker
39 Joseph Bramlett
40 Mark Hubbard
41 Tyler Duncan
42 Russell Henley
43 Jhonattan Vegas
44 Byeong Hun An
45 Lucas Glover
46 Charley Hoffman
47 Chez Reavie
48 Jordan Spieth
49 Harold Varner III
50 Scott Stallings
51 Tom Hoge
52 Si Woo Kim
53 Seung-Yul Noh
54 Ryan Armour
55 Patton Kizzire
56 Luke Donald
57 Richy Werenski
58 Wesley Bryan
59 Austin Cook
60 Aaron Wise
61 Adam Long
62 Sam Burns
63 Henrik Norlander
64 Kevin Chappell
65 Roger Sloan
66 Scott Brown
67 Hank Lebioda
68 Greg Chalmers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $21,000. Marley has hit 11 consecutive UFC main-event picks.


Dustin Poirier (-200) vs. Dan Hooker (+175): Poirier via TKO

Both guys fight at a pretty high pace and there is no such thing as a boring Poirier fight. I give the edge to Poirier because I think he will be the one pushing the pace, throwing more volume, and landing the harder shots. I think the early rounds could be close while Hooker is fresh, and I don't think you could favor Poirier at this price if it were a three-round fight. However, Hooker slowed down in his five-round fight against Paul Felder and, if he does that against Poirier, I think he could be in trouble. Poirier will push the pace for a hard five rounds and I favor him in the championship rounds heavily. I think Poirier would be good for at least a 48-47 decision if it hits the scorecards, but I am going to take him to get a late finish.

Mike Perry (-300) vs. Mickey Gall (+250): Gall via submission

This is going to be a striker vs. grappler matchup. I don't see Gall having any chance on the feet and, if he is stuck standing, he probably gets knocked out. I don't think Perry wants anything to do with the ground game against Gall and, if Gall gets just one takedown, that could be all he needs to lock up a submission. I think at these odds, it is a dog-or-pass fight for me and I would give Gall more than a 30 percent chance of winning that the odds suggest. I don't think Perry is the sharpest guy and it could only take one mistake for Gall to capitalize and get a finish.

Brendan Allen (-275) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+235): Allen via submission

Allen is the better wrestler and he has more power as well, He also possesses solid grappling. Daukaus might be the better striker, he just doesn't pack a lot of power. Daukaus is also a dangerous submission artist but he doesn't have great wrestling. Allen doesn't have the best top control and I could see Daukaus getting a reversal and possibly a submission. I don't know how this fight goes down, but I think it should be a lot closer to even. I will side with Allen as my pick.

Maurice Greene (-215) vs. Gian Villante (+185): Greene via decision

I think Greene is the rightful favorite and I think his size advantage is going to help him because this is Villante's first trip to heavyweight. Neither guy is great, and they don't fight at a very high pace, but this should be a back-and-forth striking battle. I think Greene will be the one landing more and probably landing harder as well. Villante is tough, so I think he survives, but I'll take Greene on the scorecards.

Luis Pena (-270) vs. Khama Worthy (+230): Pena via unanimous decision

I think Pena is probably the better fighter everywhere, but I think the ground game will be his big edge. Worthy is the more powerful striker and he is decent on the feet, so he is going to look to keep this standing and land bombs. He could possibly land more volume on the feet, but he needs this standing to win. Pena can win this fight anywhere, so I do have to pick him to get his hand raised here and it should be through the ground game if he wants to play this safe.


Philipe Lins (-115) vs. Tanner Boser (-105): Boser via decision

This is likely going to be a slow-paced striking fight. They are heavyweights, so they could land the big bomb and I would say Lins is more likely to do that. But I think we see a boring decision and it's hard to be confident in either of these guys. There is no chance I would lay juice on either of these fighters, so it's dog-or-pass no matter who that is. I am going to lean with Boser because he has more experience, and I think he will be the one with more output. This could be all it takes to win this fight.

Sean Woodson (-500) vs. Julian Erosa (+350): Woodson via TKO

Woodson looked good in his UFC debut and I think this is another solid match for him. Erosa is taking this fight on short notice and he is known for having a weak chin. I don't think Woodson has any crazy one-shot power, but I think he can put Erosa away. I think he can style on Erosa for three rounds and I don't see Erosa having a shot of winning a striking fight. Erosa needs to look to get this fight to the ground to have a shot. I have to side with Woodson and I think he could get a late stoppage.

Kay Hanson (-150) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+130): Hanson via decision

Hanson is 15 years younger and she is the one that should be improving in between each fight. With Frey, we more so know what we are going to get at 35 years old and she is more likely to decline at this point in her career. Frey is the more experienced fighter and she is the better striker, but she is a 105-pounder and this will be her first fight at 115. Hanson is the better wrestler-grappler and I think she will be the bigger, stronger fighter so that should help her with takedowns. I think she will be able to wrestle enough to win at least two rounds.

Jordan Griffin (-120) vs. Youssef Zalal (+100): Zalal via decision

I think Zalal is the better wrestler and grappler and he impressed me in his UFC debut. He looked good on the feet as well, but I think he should and will look to mix in takedowns. Griffin is a dangerous submission artist as well and could get a sub of his own, but I think Zalal gets the better of most scrambles and grappling exchanges. I think this will be close on the feet and the smaller cage could help Griffin, but I don't think Griffin knocks him out and he isn't a volume striker.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 6

Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7



Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P


FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 15 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. WOODBURN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BEGGINER: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. WOODBURN: Today is a sprint a nd the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BEBO LUCKY ROAD: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ra cing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.



3

BEGGINER

10/1


7/2




2

WOODBURN

7/2


4/1




8

BEBO LUCKY ROAD

3/1


5/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

OBSIDIAN SPLENDOR

4


9/5

Front-runner

78


75


54.1


72.8


64.8




2

WOODBURN

2


7/2

Stalker

84


79


72.6


76.0


70.5




3

BEGGINER

3


10/1

Stalker

85


90


69.4


75.8


72.8




8

BEBO LUCKY ROAD

8


3/1

Stalker

92


78


66.6


70.6


64.6




6

SECRET WAGER

6


10/1

Stalker

75


63


46.8


58.6


47.1




1

STRONG COMPOSITION

1


2/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


72


33.8


65.0


57.0




5

JAPHIR

5


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


59


22.0


47.8


32.8




7

SEQUANA

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


6.2


38.8


24.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)



Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 3-4-5)



Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 1:58P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DISCO BALL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DISCO BALL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.



5

DISCO BALL

9/5


2/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

DISCO BALL

5


9/5

Front-runner

90


89


85.3


84.4


81.4




7

VERTICAL THREAT

7


5/1

Trailer

0


0


62.6


77.7


74.7























Unknown Running Style: HAPPY HEPO (7/2) [Jockey: Hernandez Juan J - Trainer: Baffert Bob], HOLDEN THE LUTE (2/1) [Jockey: Van Dyke Drayden - Trainer: Baffert Bob], ADARE (12/1) [Jockey: Maldonado Edwin A - Trainer: Drysdale Neil D], NOTRE DAME (15/1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Pleasanton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 74

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 LORD VADER 3/1




# 3 KNOWN 5/1




# 8 OLYMPIC SILVER 6/1




LORD VADER is the strongest wager in this race. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the best in this group. Should definitely be considered for this event if only for the decent speed figure recorded in the last contest. Has recorded strong Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races in the past. KNOWN - Martinez has a win percentage of 17 over the last month. With a competitive 72 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this affair. OLYMPIC SILVER - Must be carefully examined given the class of races run as of late. Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figs (63 average) at today's distance and surface recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#9 SAYYIDA AL HURRA (ML=6/1)
#5 TROIS PONTS (ML=5/1)


SAYYIDA AL HURRA - It looks like McCarthy had to know this filly on Jun 6th when riding her for the initial time. Back on board again today. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a nice race is a good omen. TROIS PONTS - I like that latest contest on May 30th at Laurel where she ended up fourth. Running 1 1/16 miles on the grass, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch. Out of the money finish in the last race at Laurel was better than it looked on paper. She improved position in the lane and never gave up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 STIVA (ML=3/1), #3 DYNAMIC MISS (ML=4/1), #8 CHASING HELICITY (ML=6/1),

STIVA - This favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. DYNAMIC MISS - Don't think that this mare has value at 4/1 this time around. CHASING HELICITY - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. Garnered a disappointing speed rating last time out in a $25,000 Claiming race on March 13th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TROIS PONTS - Last time is deceiving, better than it looked. Will give a nice effort this time around.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#9 SAYYIDA AL HURRA is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs



06/27/20, CD, Race 1, 1.00 ET
06/27/20,CD,1,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $79,000 (includes up to $20,600 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For $50,000 Or Less In Last 3 Starts).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
6
Purrfectly Claire
7/2
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Bauer Philip A.
SC
50.00
1.91/$1


098.3480
5
Sea Garden
3-1
Graham J
Margolis Steve
W
40.00
1.41/$1


098.3161
3
Raison d'Etre
5/2
Leparoux J R
Casse Mark E.
FEL
50.00
1.91/$1


096.8844
2
Lucky Find
6-1
Lanerie C J
Proctor Thomas F.


40.00
1.41/$1


095.9557
4
Tracing Gold
20-1
Albarado R
Adams Douglas S.


50.00
1.91/$1


095.8666
7
Curls and Bows(b-)
7/2
Gaffalione T
McPeek Kenneth G.
J
50.00
1.91/$1


094.4420
1
Sovereign Appeal
10-1
Beschizza A
Lynch Brian A.
T
50.00
1.91/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.44, ROI 0.84/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 4:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 GOLDEN SMILES (ML=3/1)


GOLDEN SMILES - Recent speed figs show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GILDED APPLE (ML=7/5), #4 CAZADORA (ML=4/1), #3 HURRICANE TIZWAY (ML=6/1),

GILDED APPLE - Would have to get better off that fourth place finish last out to make an impact here. 7/5 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance clash lately. I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job finished once in a while. CAZADORA - Finished sixth on June 13th after the extended layoff. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this event. Speed ratings tell a narrative of lessening physical condition.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #5 GOLDEN SMILES to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 GRANDPA LOUIE 4/1




# 4 CYCLOBOMB 7/2




# 5 FASTDRIVEN 3/1




GRANDPA LOUIE has a decent shot to take this race. Ought to be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this gelding a strong wager. Has a solid shot in this race if you like back class. CYCLOBOMB - Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 63 avg - of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Carlisle running at this distance are the most favorable in this group of animals. FASTDRIVEN - Handler has very solid win rate (25 percent) at this distance and surface. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



06/27/20, GP, Race 11, 5.18 ET
06/27/20,GP,11,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 STAKES. Added Elegance Stakes. Purse $60,000. FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Free nomination by Friday, June 19. $600 to enter. After payment of 1% to all owners of horses finishing sixth through last, 62% of the remaining purse shall be paid to the owner of the winner, 20% to second,10% to third, 5% to fourth, and 3% to fifth. Weight Three Years Old 122 lbs.; Older 126. Non-winners of a stakes since December 1 or three races other than maiden, claiming, starter or State-Bred allowance, 2 lbs.; two races other than maiden, claiming,starter or State-Bred allowance, 4 lbs. Starters to be named by usual time of closing. Supplemental nominations may be made at time of entry. All fees shall be paid prior to the start of the race.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
3
Queen Nekia
4-1
Camacho S
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
JTEC
43.02
1.47/$1


099.1032
1
Nonna Madeline
5/2
Zayas E J
Pletcher Todd A.


43.02
1.47/$1


099.0538
4
Letruska
3-1
Jaramillo E
Gutierrez Fausto
SL
43.02
1.47/$1


097.6019
6
Remarkable Soul
8-1
Arroyo A S
Nicks Ralph E.


43.02
1.47/$1


097.4191
8
Heiressall
10-1
Vasquez M A
Pompay Teresa M.


37.50
1.16/$1


097.3044
2
Bella Ciao
9/2
Reyes L
Sano Antonio
F
43.02
1.47/$1


094.9291
5
Starship Bonita
15-1
Meneses M
Dwoskin Steven
W
44.59
1.74/$1


094.1066
7
Helping Lisa D
12-1
Lebron V
Dwoskin Steven


37.50
1.16/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.86, ROI 0.90/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
HORSES – Laurel Park Race 2: #7 to WIN


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
HORSES – Laurel Park Race 7: #3 to WIN


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Laurel Park Race 1: #1 to WIN


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 6: #5 to WIN


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 8: #5 to WIN


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 3: #1 to WIN


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 1: #5 to WIN


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Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 5: #2 to WIN


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 7: #9 to WIN


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
HORSES – Churchill Downs Race 8: #7 to WIN


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
HORSES – Churchill Downs Race 3: #1 to WIN


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
HORSES – Churchill Downs Race 6: #6 to WIN


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 5: #6 to WIN


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 8: #12 to WIN


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 3: #1 to WIN


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Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 6: #7 to WIN


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Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 7: #2 to WIN


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VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 8: #7 to WIN


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
HORSES – Belmont Park Race 5: #7 to WIN


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Belmont Park Race 7: #2 to WIN


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
HORSES – Belmont Park Race 1: #9 to WIN


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
HORSES – Woodbine Race 7: #7 to WIN


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
HORSES – Woodbine Race 4: #11 to WIN


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 1: #4 to WIN


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 7: #2 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami.


Bets I've locked in as of 5:30 PM EST 6/25:

Kyle Busch +500
Martin Truex +700
Clint Bowyer +5000

H2H Bets:

Erik Jones +110 vs. Alex Bowman
Matt DiBenedetto +120 vs. Aric Almirola

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1 Kyle Busch 5-1
2 Kevin Harvick 5-1
3 Denny Hamlin 7-1
4 Martin Truex Jr 7-1
5 Chase Elliott 15-2
6 Brad Keselowski 8-1
7 Joey Logano 10-1
8 Ryan Blaney 12-1
9 Kurt Busch 22-1
10 Clint Bowyer 50-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Erik Jones
12 Tyler Reddick
13 Jimmie Johnson
14 Alex Bowman
15 William Byron
16 Matt DiBenedetto
17 Aric Almirola
18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
19 Ryan Newman
20 Cole Custer
21 Matt Kenseth
22 Christopher Bell
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Austin Dillon
25 Chris Buescher
26 Ty Dillon
27 Daniel Suarez
28 Michael McDowell
29 Corey Lajoie
30 Ryan Preece
31 John H. Nemechek
32 Brennan Poole
33 Timmy Hill
34 Garrett Smithley
35 Joey Gase
36 JJ Yeley
37 Quin Houff
38 Josh Bilicki
39 BJ McLeod
40 James Davison

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson Jun 27 '20, 3:35 PM in 4h
NASCAR | Alex Bowman vs William Byron
Play on: William Byron +105 at 5Dimes

Rocketman Sports FREE Nascar Head to Head Matchup Saturday 6-27-20
#88 Alex Bowman vs #24 William Byron (3:35 PM EST)
Play On: #24 William Byron +105
The Nascar Cup boys move to Pocono this weekend for back to back races on Saturday and Sunday. William Byron has no wins, 1 Top 5 finish and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 4 races here at Pocono. His average finish is 9.3 at this track which is second best among all active drivers. Alex Bowman has no wins, 1 Top 5 finish and 1 Top 10 finish in his 8 races at Pocono. His average finish is 22.3 at this track. We'll play William Byron to finish ahead of Alex Bowman today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports won again this past weekend cashing the TOP play on Almirola over Byron. Now documented 65% with all Nascar picks this year! 69-37 65% last 3 years with all Nascar picks! 20-7 74% last 27 overall picks all sports dating back to right before Corona. Rocky has a TOP 8* Nascar Head to Head Matchup and a 6* Nascar Head to Head Matchup for Saturday! Get on board and WIN BIG again!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed Hamlin's victory in the Toyota 500 last month, even though he wasn't one of the top three favorites.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on Roberts' predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400.


For the first time, the NASCAR Cup Series will run two races on a weekend at the same location, giving us a unique opportunity to immediately utilize what we witness on Saturday and bet again the following day. Pocono Raceway's 2.5-mile tricky triangle is the beta site for this new venture by NASCAR, and it wasn't created due to the coronavirus pandemic. These dates at Pocono were set on the original season schedule. There will be no practice for either race, so the cars have to come off the hauler prepared and ready to go for shorter distances (325 miles on Saturday, 350 on Sunday) than the normal 400-mile event. I'm expecting the same group of drivers to do well in each race. It's important to know that Sunday's starting lineup will have all finishers on Saturday's lead lap invert their position.

One big issue this season has been the weather. It seems as if it rains during every race, and Pocono seems to have had the most rain delays in my last 40 years of watching NASCAR. Early forecasts show a 50 percent chance of rain Saturday and a 40 percent chance on Sunday.

Here's how I see things going in Saturday's race:

1 #9 Chase Elliott (15-2) -- Despite having only one victory this season, he's been the best using this week's race package because he's been competing for the win in all of them. He's been eighth or better in six of the races using this package, and in the two in which he didn't finish well, he was wrecked at Darlington and lost a lap at Las Vegas after leading 70 and winning the first two stages. He's finished fourth twice at Pocono.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (7-1) -- Among active drivers, he leads the Cup Series with five wins at Pocono. His victory last fall was his first there since 2010. He should have a similar set-up to that race, and the package featuring engines with 550 horsepower has been his best, carrying him to two wins. He has a series-leading three victories this season.

3 #20 Erik Jones (18-1) -- He's 17th in points after 13 races with three top-five finishes, but this certainly is a track on which he could record his first win of the season. I'm looking for top-fives in both races this weekend. He's the active leader at Pocono with an eighth-place average finish. In six starts, he has posted four top-fives, including a runner-up last fall.

4 #18 Kyle Busch (5-1) -- He didn't win a Cup Series race at Pocono in his first 25 starts but has now captured three of the last five and has led laps in his last nine starts there. He hasn't won yet this season, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't take one of the two races this weekend.

5 #4 Kevin Harvick (5-1) -- He leads the series with 10 top-10 finishes this season and has recorded 12 top-fives at Pocono in 38 Cup Series starts but surprisingly has no wins. However, he did win a 2011 Truck Series race and has been runner-up four times in the Cup Series. The reason to support him here is that he's registered two wins this season using this week's package.

6 #12 Ryan Blaney (12-1) -- He notched his first Cup Series win at Pocono in 2017, when he drove the last Ford to win there, and also won a 2013 Truck Series race. His average finish in eight Cup starts has been 11.5. He's tied for the series lead this season with seven top-fives.

7 #2 Brad Keselowski (8-1) -- He's recorded top-five finishes in 10 of his 20 starts at Pocono, including a win in 2011. He's been eighth or better in eight of his last nine starts. He also registered an Xfinity Series win in 2017 and, for what it's worth, his father Bob won five times at Pocono in the ARCA Series. He's a great matchup and fantasy play.

8 #24 William Byron (20-1) -- Even before Hendrick Motorsports' power resurgence, Byron was rolling strong at Pocono with a 9.2 average finish and a best of fourth place last fall. He won a Truck Series race there in 2016. He might offer the best value on the board or be the best long-shot candidate to win despite having poor luck all season.

9 #22 Joey Logano (10-1) -- His win at Pocono from the pole in 2012 was the second Cup Series victory of his career and a sign he really might be better than sliced bread. He signed with Team Penske the following year and has since won 23 races and a Cup Series Championship. But he hasn't led a lap there in his last six starts, and his last top-five finish occurred eight races ago in 2016.

10 #88 Alex Bowman (17-1) -- Pocono should be a good track for him, even though he's never led a lap there. His best finish was third in 2018, but the reason to back him here is because of the Hendrick Motorsports horsepower. He's put it to good use, winning at Fontana and being runner-up at Darlington while using this week's race package.

11 #1 Kurt Busch (22-1) -- He leads all active drivers with 14 top-five finishes in his 37 Cup Series starts at Pocono, including three wins - the last coming in 2016. He's been seventh or better in five of his eight starts using this week's race package.

12 #10 Aric Almirola (100-1) -- Three of his four top finishes at Pocono have come in the last two seasons while with Stewart-Haas Racing. He's coming off his best two performances of the season as he's registered his first two top-five finishes.

13 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7-1) -- He's a two-time winner at Pocono, with the victories coming in 2015 and 2018, but he hasn't led a lap there in his last three starts. I downgraded him here because he's recorded only one top-five finish in the eight races using this week's package. His lone win of 2020 came while using the 750-horsepower package. I'll be betting against him in a few matchups.

14 #48 Jimmie Johnson (22-1) -- He's a three-time winner in 36 Cup Series starts at Pocono and is averaging a 12th-place finish. His last win there came in 2013 and his last top-five finish occurred in 2015. His only top-five using this week's race package came at Las Vegas before the shutdown. He's been good with it in several races but hasn't been able to bring back his 2007 machine-like inner self.

15 #17 Chris Buescher (500-1) -- With 55 laps remaining in the fall race at Pocono in 2016, Buescher stayed on the track when the rain hit while everyone else pitted. The rain came stronger and harder, and since there are no lights at the track, it got darker. The result was the biggest NASCAR long shot ever to cash in Las Vegas at 1000-1 odds. It remains Buescher's only Cup Series win. So needless to say, this place is special to him.

16 #3 Austin Dillon (125-1) -- He won a Truck Series race at Pocono in 2014 but has averaged only a 19th-place finish over 12 starts, without a top-10. But the reason to support him this week is that his team is on a roll. Richard Childress Racing has some speed in 2020, maybe more than Dillon's ever had in the Cup Series.

17 #95 Christopher Bell (125-1) -- His team is using Joe Gibbs Racing equipment and looks to have figured out this race package the best. He finished eighth at Homestead the last time the package was used and was ninth at Charlotte with it. He won a Truck Series race at Pocono in 2017.

18 #8 Tyler Reddick (75-1) -- He might be the wild card of the weekend with a chance of grabbing his first Cup Series win as he recorded an impressive fourth-place finish at Homestead the last time this race package was used.

19 #6 Ryan Newman (125-1) -- The first time I heard of Newman was when I watched him dominate a 2000 ARCA race for Team Penske. He's averaged a 13th-place finish in his 34 Cup Series starts, including a win from the pole in 2003.

20 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (200-1) -- In 14 starts at Pocono, he has averaged a 23rd-place finish without a top-10. But this race package has been good for him this season as he's recorded two top-fives in eight races while using it. Chevrolet equipment from Hendrick Motorsports has made the car very fast.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

Top picks

Dustin Poirier, Brendan Allen and Youssef Zalal

Fight Picks

Dustin Poirier (-200) vs. Dan Hooker (+175): Poirier via TKO
Mike Perry (-300) vs. Mickey Gall (+250): Perry
Brendan Allen (-275) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+235): Allen
Maurice Greene (-215) vs. Gian Villante (+185): Greene
Luis Pena (-270) vs. Khama Worthy (+230): Pena
Philipe Lins (-115) vs. Tanner Boser (-105): Lins
Sean Woodson (-500) vs. Julian Erosa (+350): Woodson via TKO
Takashi Soto (-155) vs. Jason Witt: Soto
Kay Hanson (-150) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+130): Hanson
Jordan Griffin (-120) vs. Youssef Zalal (+100): Zalal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

UFC

Dustin Poirier (-200) vs. Dan Hooker (+175): Hooker by decision

Poirier-Hooker is a classic striker's delight. After getting an amazing bout in Emmett-Burgos last week, these pair of lightweights have all the makings of a 25-minute classic when they meet on Saturday. Poirier is coming off knee surgery following his submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019, the longest inactive period of his pro career. Hooker has seemingly figured things out, with seven wins in his last eight. In a fight that will be all about strike timing, I lean toward the more active fighter not coming off surgery and who has yet to reach the mountain top only to lose to someone he knows is better. Hooker may be the best kickboxer in the division now and Poirier has not faced a striker with that strong a skillset in his career.

Mike Perry (-300) vs. Mickey Gall (+250): Perry by TKO

These two bring a classic striker vs. wrestler contrast to the octagon. Perry, who is just 2-5 in his last seven, has said he won't have his trainer or coach in his corner, just his girlfriend. While that is a bit worrisome, I don't think it will be much of a hindrance against Gall, who has yet to show much of anything in the striking department. If Gall gets this to the ground, I will be shocked. Look for Perry to stuff some early takedowns and deliver a powerful knockout.

Brendan Allen (-275) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+235): Allen by TKO

This fight is one that may jump off the screen because of its placement on the card, but has the potential to be a Fight of the Night. Daukaus and Allen have two decision wins in 21 career victories between them. Daukaus is more of a submission specialist with all stoppages coming by either D'Arce or rear-naked choke. Allen is a bit more well-rounded, with five TKOs and eight submissions. In a fight that feels a bit even, I always lean toward the guy with more experience on this level. Daukaus is also taking this on short notice after Ian Heinisch was forced to withdraw. Allen gets it done.

Maurice Greene (-215) vs. Gian Villante (+185): Greene by submission

Villante is an auto-fade for me, regardless of opponent. The veteran is 7-8 since joining UFC in 2013 and is as unreliable as they come in delivering when expected. Now, Villante is moving up to heavyweight for the first time since 2011 against a 6-foot-7 athlete with a good ground game? Though Villante has never been submitted in his career, I think Greene will be able to get the job done and secure the stoppage.

Luis Pena (-270) vs. Khama Worthy (+230): Worthy by TKO

We don't know much about Worthy as a pro, with his UFC debut coming on short notice against a rising prospect in Devonte Smith. He scored one of the biggest upsets of the year when he stopped Smith dead in his tracks in 2019. Pena is a little bit tougher to solve and has never been stopped in his career. But Worthy's striking game looked top notch and his power should translate again in a smaller cage with less room for "Violent Bob Ross" to circle away from strikes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Weir

Horse Racing

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
New York Stakes
1 Call Me Love (9-5) is the logical favorite off a good second behind Rushing Fall in her North American debut. She stretches out in distance, which should fit this filly. Hard to knock.

7 Mean Mary (7-2) comes off back-to-back Grade 3 wins at Gulfstream Park. She's the clear speed in the field, which is always dangerous. This 4-year-old for Graham Motion will take these a long way.

Also from Graham Motion, 6 Mrs. Sippy (5-2) is unraced since the Breeders' Cup. She shows a long string of five-, six- and seven-furlong works at Fair Hill, which has proven effective for Motion. She's a strong fit for this race if she's ready off the bench.

2 Feel Glorious (10-1) will need to improve against these but is eligible to do so as a 4-year-old. Her races last year were restricted to 3-year-olds, including a couple of close placings in graded stakes. This will also be her first attempt at this distance. Might fit.

A: 1,6,7
B: 2

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
True North Stakes
1 Diamond King (5-1) has been racing in longer. He probably won't get the lead here, but with the right trip he can get a stalking spot inside and then have a chance to get first run. Good chance for a mild upset.

7 Promises Fulfilled (7-5) tailed off a little after two big races at Belmont. He's training well at Churchill Downs, and I trust that trainer Dale Romans wouldn't send this horse to New York if he's not fully cranked. I don't think any of the other early pace horses want to go head-to-head with Promises Fulfilled. He likes Belmont and will be tough to beat if ready.

Beyond the top two, I will use a few longer price B horses in case the race falls apart. I will continue to stand against Firenze Fire; he will need to prove he's still the same horse after exiting the Jason Servis Barn. 6 Stan the Man (20-1), 2 Midnightcharly (20-1) and 4 Wait for It (12-1) can all be running late and are worth a chance at long prices.

A: 1,7
B: 2,4,6

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:08 p.m. ET)
Just A Game Stakes
As with most Grade 1 turf races in New York, you have to start with trainer Chad Brown. 6 Uni (7-5) returns from her win in the Breeders' Cup Mile. A winner in seven of her last eight races, she's hard to knock. Proven off the bench, she's the most accomplished horse in the lineup. The only thing that could beat her is if she starts to regress as a 6-year-old. The clear one to beat.

Stablemate 4 Newspaperofrecord (8-5) finally got back to the winner's circle in the Grade 3 Intercontinental. She set a fast pace on yielding turf and prevailed easily at the seven-furlong distance. I'm still not convinced she's going to become the star that seemed inevitable when she was a 2-year-old. I will hesitantly push her to the B level.

1 Beau Recall (10-1) was very good last summer, finishing second in this race. Her return race at Churchill looks like a good prep, finishing mid-pack after encountering some trip issues. Note that was the longest layoff of her career; she has been racing steadily for two-plus years. I'm willing to give her the benefit of doubt on needing the race. I'll make her an A.

5 Regal Glory (10-1) Is definitely the "other" Chad Brown horse here. If Uni is not 100 percent off the layoff and Newspaperofrecord is pressed early, Regal Glory might be the one. She's worth including at a fair price as a B.

A: 1,6
B: 4,5

Belmont Park Race 11 (6:40 p.m. ET)
8 Brice (7-2) returns as a 3-year-old after an eventful trip in his career second start last November. He seemed to freak out a little while held inside another runner on the rail, before finally getting out and the jockey ultimately pulling up on the turn. I trust trainer Jonathan Thomas has figured out what went wrong since Brice has been aggressively placed for his return. Any natural growth or improvement from his debut makes him a contender.

3 Winning Factor (6-1) and 6 Sir Chubby (5-1) both exit the same race on June 5. Winning Factor had a brutal trip and probably would have won if anything had gone right. He gets a big jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz on Saturday... Sir Chubby took the overland route in his last start, loomed large on the turn but flattened out a little in the stretch. Chance.

11 Sandy Lane Kitten (9-2) has the best Beyer Speed Figures but moves to a trainer (Richard Hendricks) better known for steeplechase racing. This 5-year-old comes back gelded and fits, but this could also be a last chance before the jumping starts.

12 Eagles Palace (4-1) and 4 Uncle Renny (20-1) faced better on turf at Gulfstream Park. Both have a shot with the drop.

A: 3,6,8
B: 4,11,12

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 1,6,7 with 1,7 with 6 with 8 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick4: 1,6,7 with 1,7 with 1,6 with 3,6,8 ($36)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2 with 1,7 with 1,6 with 3,6,8 ($6)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7 with 2,4,6 with 1,6 with 3,6,8 ($27)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7 with 1,7 with 4,5 with 3,6,8 ($18)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7 with 1,7 with 1,6 with 4,11,12 ($18)

Total: $117

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

UFC and Belmont picks 6/27

Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:56 am

100* Youssef Zalal -115 over Jordan Griffin

Belmont Race 1
#2 Sun Summers $10 win place show
$2 exacta box 2-3-9

Belmont Race 7
#3 Chalon $10 win place show
$2 exacta box 3-2-1