Service Plays Wednesday 7/1/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
EMERALD DOWNS
RACE #7
POST TIME: 8:25 PM EST
PICK: #9 Brothers(7/2 Odds) to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Canterbury Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#8 Drop of Golden Son
ML longshot has only run on turf three times and not since last September, but that resulted in a very sharp 3rd here against open foes, he goes for a hot Rengstorf barn, and his stalking gear in a race loaded with speed will come in handy too; upset special.


#2 A P Is Loose
Local lover is 25-11-5-6 over the lawn here, which is heady stuff in a field where a lot of these aren't nearly as familiar with the course, and he drew well too, and, like the pick, he's going to be licking his chops while sitting off the early pace; looms very large.


#3 Hot Shot Kid
Stiff ML favorite is best on paper and will be involved throughout, but note he's only 1-for-3 on turf, so his reputation was primarily built on dirt, and while he does have a Mn-bred stakes win, his margin for error is a lot slimmer than this ML suggests; trying to beat.


Race Summary
You won't be getting 15-1 on the pick, especially since he dead-heated with 'A P in that goof 3rd, but half that is fair, so play him in all the slots if the tote allows, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since a win would knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat, and he's got as good a chance as any, especially with a positive race flow aiding his cause.


Canterbury Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Imminent Threat
Intriguing firster catches a field of modest proven runners, seemingly tipped her hand with that gaudy 6/23 bullet 5F work, and goes for a Robertson barn that is 16% on debut; look out.


#1 Ms Kela Time
The pick's stablemate was 2nd in two starts last year and again off the 9-month break last time, so she has a recency edge, but three 2nds and the rail isn't appealing; second-best again.


#8 Hunter's Hellcat
The last of the Robertson trio was 2nd by a neck in her return from a similar layoff, from a bad post too, so she clearly hits hard, though she may not get set up like last time; mixed signals.


Race Summary
Tab the tote on the 3 (and the double will pays from R6), as she's supposed to be live and taking money if she's ready, and it sure looks like she is off that bullet drill, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she looks like she has some talent, and as solid as her stablemates are, she's not going to have to be a monster to get the job done against them.


Canterbury Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Speeding Kid
Stretch runner missed by a neck off a November layoff here last month going a half-furlong shorter, so while the cutback might not be ideal, there's plenty of speed here, and she will certainly be tighter today; mows them all down.


#7 King of the Court
ML favorite stumbled at the start last time and was 3rd behind the pick off the Diodoro claim, so obviously she's a big threat here, and she too will like the expected hot pace, though she'll be overbet off that trip; still, plenty scary.


#4 Trapalanda
Pace presser aired against lesser in her local bow last time and will be a handful on the rise, though she has some hot speed to both sides, which could make working out a trip a bit more difficult this time; mixed signals here.


Race Summary
The pace and price both seem to be right with the 1, who could actually fall between the wagering cracks with the 7 and 4 taking a lot of tote action, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since she looks as strong as either of them, and if you're getting even 7-2, let alone 5-1, that's plenty of value on a miss who looks primed for a huge run second-off the long break.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 My Little Stormy
Turf form is pretty reliable, and she can sit a bit closer to the splits if the pace is soft. Logical alternative to the big dropper.


#4 Violet Blue
No clue what to make of this one. Woodbine to Mountaineer shippers at 22% over the last seven years, but not a single one of those 123 horses was dropping from a stakes race into claiming company, let alone out of a Grade III. Sure, she didn't fully belong in those spots, but this is still a unique kind of class drop. Depends on the price. If she's 5/2, maybe. If she's 3/5, no way.


#10 Kiana's Love
Tactical type can get a really good go of things with these, but her turf form is a bit spotty, and there's no guarantee she shows up today.


Race Summary
My Little Stormy has consistent turf form and meets a likely favorite with a massive question to answer. Happy to take her as the second choice.


Mountaineer - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#2 Total Distraction
Only turf try was uninspiring, but he has been in with some tougher groups down in Tampa, and he moves into a barn that is capable of better than their start would indicate.


#4 Mutashabeh
Speed should make a break for it from the gate, but he tends to give away ground late and is probably vulnerable nearing the wire while overbet.


#7 Rum on the Rocks
Has run pretty well in both career turf tries, and he's a threat to come along late for a piece of this. May be a stretch on top?


Race Summary
Total Distraction should be tough in here, and I'll give the edge to his recent company lines over the speed of Mutashabeh in hopes that the tougher Tampa races will hold up here


Mountaineer - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Untapped Energy
Likely second choice is the main danger to the chalk here, as she has run a couple of races in her career that would make her competitive with that one.


#1 Treasured Bond
Meets a pretty suspect bunch and owns solid form, but she has given away significant ground late in both starts since the stoppage and might be vulnerable late at a short price.


#4 Kara Lot
Can be in the mix in the early stages, and that alone may be enough to stick around for a piece in a pretty soft race outside of the top pair.


Race Summary
Untapped Energy is interesting from close range against Treasured Bond, who will be a short price from the fence. 'Energy has finished some of her races with enthusiasm, and 'Bond has been giving away a lot of ground late recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Scioto Downs - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#5 SUZY STAR
On the improve, needs some pace flow in Buckeye Stallion Series.


#7 ROSE RUN VAIL
Solid numbers, likely will be sent for forward position in paceless race.


#3 JUSTDONTFORGETME
Gapped off live cover, came up empty in Northfield stretch.


Race Summary
Suzy Star rallied for minor awards behind front-end, odds-on winners in her last two starts. She looms a decent value play in her current form. Play 5-3 and 5-7 exactas.


Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #14


Picks
Notes


#6 PETAL TO THE METAL
Shook duel, held off fave in return, retains betting value.


#1 CORNER TABLE
Decent rally at 73-1, finished behind the favorites at notch below.


#5 AMANDEROSA
‘Strong finish’ at Yonkers, Tetrick’s choice of four drives.


Race Summary
Petal To The Metal survived a hard duel and inched away late from the trip-sitting favorite, earning a playback on the class rise. Play 6-1, 6-2 and 6-5 exactas.


Hoosier Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 SKYWAY VENUS
Back with own kind, figures tough from the rail, today’s Best Bet.


#5 SLOW YOUR ROLL
Hawthorne invader appears rounding to a good race, gets Lasix.


#4 IVANNA IVY
Pressed pace and faded to fall to 1-23, lures Tetrick.


Race Summary
Skyway Venus made a quick, early move to win from post 10 two starts back against similar, now starts inside. Last week, she was trapped in the second quarter, angled off the rail to race third-over and came up empty when she tipped 4-wide for the stretch drive. Play 1-4 and 1-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 Worth Avenue
It didn't work out when she tried the turf last out but had been in good form and stepped back up the class ladder; is back to the main track and can make a run at this distance.


#4 She Takes Heart
Turns back from two turns after setting or prompting the pace in her last three; should be able to stay close and finish well.


#1 Tiz Possible Dear
Gets back to the main track after coming up short on the grass; her latest dirt try brought some bad luck as she had a broken rein and was walked off as the even-money favorite. Capable of a big effort here.


Race Summary
Worth Avenue has spent much of her career against better than this and with the exception of her latest on turf has been in good form. Should be able to reel them in going 7 furlongs.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Semper Fi
Was a $240K yearling and ran a couple of times vs. better last year and returned with a claiming price this year and finished 3rd; stays in for a price and can stalk and strike vs. these.


#2 Fast Magic
Takes a class drop from a higher maiden claiming event in which he finished 4th; usually shows some interest in the stretch and can make a run here.


#5 Nimble Beast
Was 3rd going longer last time and can be very tough as he turns back in distance; solid player.


Race Summary
Semper Fi ran on well in his 1st of the year and seems to have found a good level after facing some tough maidens in New York.


Gulfstream Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Glory of Florida
Was claimed by Maker, who has done well with his stable's purchases; he hasn't been out since May but is a three-time winner over the strip and can be in the mix throughout.


#4 I'm a G Six
Won a handicap at Tampa last time and has been an extremely sharp claim for the Rodriguez barn; he's won 3 of 4 or the new stable and can make a strong rally here.


#2 Squeezadios
Lost a photo two back and then was 3rd in his latest; usually brings his 'A' game and get a piece of this.


Race Summary
Glory of Florida has done well over the strip, can get a good stalking trip from the inside and can get the jump on other closers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass



Grants Pass - Race 8

$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double (Races 8-9)



SO $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $6,600 • Post: 7:30P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $2,500 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. OREGON BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HOLD THAT SMILE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse h as run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CASH DRIVEN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WHERE'S MY VOUCHER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last sev en days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LUCK LASTS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



1

HOLD THAT SMILE

4/1


4/1




3

CASH DRIVEN

8/1


5/1




6

WHERE'S MY VOUCHER

9/2


9/1




5

LUCK LASTS

6/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

CASH DRIVEN

3


8/1

Front-runner

87


82


93.5


78.2


74.2




4

BOBBY MAGIC

4


7/2

Front-runner

81


78


67.4


66.1


54.6




1

HOLD THAT SMILE

1


4/1

Front-runner

83


92


0.0


90.4


85.9




6

WHERE'S MY VOUCHER

6


9/2

Front-runner

84


75


0.0


79.4


72.4




2

KNOWN DEFENSE

2


8/1

Front-runner

71


76


0.0


59.2


46.2




5

LUCK LASTS

5


6/1

Stalker

86


75


69.5


74.4


67.4




7

WINE N DIVINE

7


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


81


59.0


70.6


58.1




8

HOTNTHIRSTY

8


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

88


84


63.3


69.4


58.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs



Louisiana Downs - Race 2

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / .10 Pick 6 Jackpot



Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 49 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 3:33P


FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * LANGFUHR'S ANGEL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the high est average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BROOKLYN'S GRIP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



2

LANGFUHR'S ANGEL

6/5


7/5




5

BROOKLYN'S GRIP

5/2


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

BROOKLYN'S GRIP

5


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

0


0


44.9


20.0


15.5




2

LANGFUHR'S ANGEL

2


6/5

Alternator/Trailer

50


41


37.5


47.1


45.1




1

BAD GAL RIRI

1


6/1

Alternator/Trailer

0


0


18.0


10.4


5.4




6

SIDE SWING

6


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

41


29


29.4


9.5


2.0























Unknown Running Style: CLAIRES JEWEL (10/1) [Jockey: Martinez Odilon - Trainer: Ward Ronnie P], GRAYZ MIRACLE (9/2) [Jockey: Trujillo Antonio - Trainer: De Beauville Alex].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury ParkAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 66

FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 FLASH FLOOD 5/2




# 9 TIMEINTHETAVERN 9/2




# 5 MY MISS MARILYN 3/1




FLASH FLOOD looks strong to best this field. Has been running well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Quinonez has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 21 percent rate. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in as of late. TIMEINTHETAVERN - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Eidschun have shown strong results lately. Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. MY MISS MARILYN - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this field of horses. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this equine look respectable in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,700 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 SWING MUSIC (ML=3/1)


SWING MUSIC - This speedy sort should benefit from today's shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PATTI GO GIRL (ML=2/1), #1A FANCY KELLY (ML=2/1), #4 HOTTIE STILETTO (ML=5/2),

PATTI GO GIRL - This horse hasn't shown much in the last pair of contests. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable contenders list. FANCY KELLY - Tough to play any steed in a short distance event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. I think this morning-line choice needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. HOTTIE STILETTO - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint events recently. Unlikely to see her doing it this time out either. Could be tough for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the likely underlays list.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 SWING MUSIC is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,100 Class Rating: 72

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 SUCCESSFUL CURE (ML=7/2)


SUCCESSFUL CURE - I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last prep was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this race. The Jun 8th affair at Laurel was at a class level of (81). Dropping down in class ranks a significant amount, so he should be in a good place. He has the highest earnings per start. Give the once over to this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 JEBOLOGIST (ML=5/2), #9 YES SIR COLONEL (ML=3/1), #5 EAGLES CRY (ML=9/2),

JEBOLOGIST - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint events of late. Not likely to see him doing it today either. This mount hasn't been on the track since June 8th. Not even any workouts. Going to have a hard go of it with all the early speed in this clash. YES SIR COLONEL - No favorable outcomes for this less than sharp equine in a short distance race over the last couple of months tells me that this gelding is in a formidable circumstance This racer didn't go to the head of the pack and didn't make up ground in the homestretch last time he ran. EAGLES CRY - Not likely that the speed figure he earned on June 19th will be good enough in this affair.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 SUCCESSFUL CURE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [2,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Turf. Purse: $10300 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 ECHO ALPHA SIX 3/1




# 6 I STAND CORRECTED 8/1




# 9 GO HARLEY GO 15/1




ECHO ALPHA SIX is my choice. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. The average Equibase class figure of 65 makes this entrant difficult to beat. Has to be considered a definite contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. I STAND CORRECTED - Has longshot possibilities and could prove victorious at a big price. Must be carefully examined as he drops to compete against this less demanding field of horses. GO HARLEY GO - Has run quite well when racing a turf sprint race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



07/01/20, GP, Race 6, 2.37 ET
07/01/20,GP,6,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $48,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A RaceAt A Mile Or Over Since April 1 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Races Where Entered For $50,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
5
Outshine
6-1
Meneses M
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
EWL
34.23
1.21/$1


099.0599
4
I'm a G Six
7/2
Arroyo A S
Rodriguez Darien
C
35.92
1.19/$1


098.3899
3
Overdeliver
9/5
Zayas E J
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
F
35.92
1.19/$1


095.9167
2
Squeezadios
2-1
Vasquez M A
Pompay Teresa M.
S
35.92
1.19/$1


095.3007
1
Glory of Florida
9/2
Camacho S
Maker Michael J.
J
35.92
1.19/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.10, ROI 1.02/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs



07/01/20, TAM, Race 2, 12.56 ET
07/01/20,TAM,2,6F [Dirt] 1:08:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $12,500. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
5
She's a Lady Griz
6-1
Spieth S
Bray Michael
JSFC
36.55
1.08/$1


098.5200
8
Reneesinheaven
9/5
Allen M
Ward Dennis
EL
35.35
1.21/$1


098.4627
7
La Wapa
7/2
Urdaneta J J
Munoz Carlos
W
35.35
1.21/$1


094.6840
9
Her Zealous
10-1
Mendez K
Manchan Bertram C.


35.35
1.21/$1


094.0403
2
Blazing Diva
20-1
Garcia J A
Dye Steven


66.67
4.48/$1


093.9653
10
Wild Embrace
3-1
Hernandez H
O'Connell Kathleen
T
35.35
1.21/$1


093.5180
6
Sena the Duchess
20-1
Rivera. Jr. J L
Wetherington Margaret


36.55
1.08/$1


093.3720
4
Discrimanation
20-1
Allen. Jr. R D
Selway Robbin L.


35.35
1.21/$1


091.7790
3
Mama Longlegs
20-1
Lopez C C
Harris Nancy S.


36.55
1.08/$1


089.5827
1
La Magnolia
30-1
Mata F
Dominguez Luis R.


35.35
1.21/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.49, ROI 0.65/$1

[kajok]

Alan Scozzari

GUARANTEED A WAGER Italy Serie A Cagliari +0,5 -117

TIP OF THE DAY A WAGER England Championship Sheffield Wed - West Brom UNDER 2,5 -127

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Wed Jul 01, 2020

England - Premier League- West Ham United vs. Chelsea OVER 2.5 -126 (3:15 PM)
Italy - Serie A- Bologna vs. Cagliari OVER 2.5 -119 (1:30 PM)
Sweden - Allsvenskan- IFK Norrkoping vs. Elfsborg OVER 2.5 -138 (1:00 PM)
Norway - Eliteserien- Stabaek vs. Stromsgodset If OVER 2.5 -117 (12:00 PM)
Spain - La Liga- Real Betis vs. Villarreal CF OVER 2.5 -124 (4:00 PM)
England - Championship- Nottingham Forest vs. Bristol City UNDER 2.5 -121 (1:00 PM)
Germany - Bundesliga 3- Ingolstadt vs. FC Magdeburg UNDER 2.5 -104 (1:00 PM)

Italy - Serie A- AC Milan -170 SPAL (3:45 PM)
Portugal - Primeira Liga- Sporting Lisbon -188 Gil Vicente (4:15 PM)
Spain - Segunda Division- Real Oviedo CF +124 Mirandes (1:30 PM)
Norway - Eliteserien- Viking Fk -134 Sandefjord (12:00 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rick Gehman

With his data-driven approach to betting golf, Rick Gehman continues to crush sportsbooks. Over the last eight tournaments, Gehman's bets are up $4,554 for $100 players.

Two weeks ago, Gehman told SportsLine readers to bet Webb Simpson at 30-1 to win the RBC Heritage, saying he "certainly appreciates the books dropping Simpson all the way down to 30-1" following a bad performance the week before and noting Harbour Town was a perfect course for Simpson's game. The result? Simpson fired a 22-under to win the RBC Heritage!

Last week Gehman played Doc Redman to make the top 20, a +750 longshot, and Paul Casey over Joaquin Niemann. Redman tied for 11th, Casey bested Niemann by seven strokes, and Gehman had two more easy winners.

Last week's recap

The Travelers Championship was full of close calls for us, many of which found of on the wrong side of a winning ticket. Bryson DeChambeau finished in a tie for 6th, which turned both our outright and Top 5 tickets into losers. Lanto Griffin finished one shot outside the Top 20 which failed to cash that +1200 ticket. The good news is that we hit Doc Redman Top 20 (finished T11) and our tournament matchup. It turns out to be a small loss of 0.24 units on the week, bringing the total down to +45.54 units since Pebble Beach.

Event preview

This is only the second season of existence for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, played at Detroit Golf Club. We won't have as much course history to work with but we know that this course was one of the easiest on TOUR last season. Additionally, the field you see this week won't compare to the first three weeks of the restart. Many top players have opted to take the week off and preparing for the sprint to the end of the 2020 season.

Winner - Viktor Hovland (+2100) - 0.75 units

Top 5 - Viktor Hovland (+450) - .50 units

Few golfers are playing as well as Viktor Hovland since the TOUR's restart. Three straight Top 25s and he just became the first Norweigen male to crack the Top 50 world rankings. He finished strong at TPC River Highlands, carding four rounds under 70 and finishing T11. He will look to notch his second win of the season.

Winner - Doc Redman (+4500) - 0.55 units

Top 5 - Doc Redman (+900) - .45 units

Here's the perfect intersection of recent form and tournament history. While history is limited, Redman finished 2nd last season, his best finish as a professional. He's also been excellent the last two weeks, finishing 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the RBC Heritage. He followed that up by finishing 3rd in the same stat category this week. This is a prime candidate for a line movement, so get it while it lasts.

Winner - Harold Varner III (+8000) - 0.49 units

Top 10 - Harold Varner III(+550) - 0.35 units

I understand that Varner hasn't won on TOUR but this is a shockingly high number when you compare him to the rest of this field. Varner was 5th in the field last week in Strokes Gained: Approach which is usually a key indicator for success.

Top 10 - Rory Sabbatini (+550) - 0.65 units

The "other Rory" has restarted his PGA TOUR season with a T14 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T21 at the RBC Heritage. Here's a much weaker field and an event that Sabbatini finished T3 last season.

Top 20- Wesley Bryan (+700) - 0.60 units

It hasn't been good for Bryan who missed ten straight cuts to end 2018 and has been trying to find consistent form ever since. Two consecutive weekends for Bryan including a T24 last week at the Travelers Championship.

Tournament Matchup - Will Gordon (-110) over Maverick McNealy (-110) - 1.0 units

I love a guy who is hungry and no golfer is as hungry as Will Gordon. He's now playing on special temporary membership and has to earn enough money and points to secure his TOUR card for the upcoming season. Despite the lack of name value, Gordon has performed well during his short stint on the PGA TOUR. He notched a Top 10 at the RSM Classic, two Top 20s at Torrey Pines and the Puerto Rico Open then the T3 last week in Connecticut. All of those finishes are within his last five starts on TOUR.

Tournament Matchup - Rickie Fowler to Miss The Cut (+200) - 0.5 units

Fowler has missed three of his last four cuts, one of the worst stretches of his career. He's in the midst of swing changes that have helped to provide those results. If Fowler wasn't a Rocket Mortgage ambassador, you wonder if he'd ever show up to this event. There's not a lot of positive signs coming from the Fowler camp at the moment and it could lead to another short week.

Here are Gehman's top 20 golfers, in projected order of finish:

#1 Bryson DeChambeau

It's almost impossible that DeChambeau has not carded a win yet this season. The top five players in Strokes Gained this season account for six combined wins. DeChambeau is second on that list and the only one without a victory. He's now notched six consecutive Top 10 finishes with a win seemingly coming at any moment.

#2 Webb Simpson

Simpson was a late WD last week at TPC River Highlands out of concerns around COVID-19. He's back in the field this week and looking to build off his win at the RBC Heritage. He's the best player in the field from "fairway through green."

#3 Tyrell Hatton

Hatton is the hottest player on the planet who never gets talked about. His last three starts on TOUR include a 3rd at RBC Heritage, a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 6th at WGC Mexico. The strength of field this week will be significantly worse than any of those events.

#4 Sungjae Im

By his own standards, Im has underperformed the last two weeks. He missed the cut at Harbour Town before finishing T58 last week at TPC River Highlands. Despite that, he's still a Top 20 player on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and one of the few elite golfers in this field.

#5 Patrick Reed

Reed is one of the few "top golfers" in this field who played this event last year. Reed finished 5th in 2019 and rebounded off his missed cut at RBC Heritage with an T24 finish last week.

#6 Rickie Fowler

Fowler is in the midst of a swing change and his results have shown he's just not "there" yet. Three missed cuts in his last four starts, something he hasn't done since 2016. Despite the bad run, there is optimism that Fowler will be back in contention once those swing changes click.

#7 Vitkor Hovland

Hovland has been excellent in the restart and has shown flashes of pure greatness. He opened with a 63 on Thursday at TPC River Highland and finished the week 69-67-68 for a T11 position.

#8 Tony Finau

Finau missed the cut on the number last week but ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in this field. Finau has lacked winning upside in his career but still projects firmly in the top 20% of this field.

#9 Hideki Matsuyama

It was "classic Hideki" at the RBC Heritage, his only event of this restart. Matsuyama gained nearly two strokes in ballstriking and lost nearly seven in his short game. He's bad on and around the greens but not that bad. Expect him to knock a little rust off and try to improve on his 13th place finish last year.

#10 Doc Redman

He played well in the final three rounds of the RBC Heritage and followed that up with an T11 finish last week in Connecticut. This is the site of his best TOUR finish, a 2nd place finish last year.

#11 Brendon Todd

A Sunday collapse for Todd who played the final round +5 and dropped from the lead to T11. It may be hard to view it this way, but still a positive result for Todd and his best finish since his scorching run of play at the end of 2019.

#12 Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler was an awesome ballstriker but terrible putter at Colonial. Last week he was great on the greens but terrible everywhere else. If he can put those things together for a week, he'll find himself on top of the leaderboard.

#13 Jason Day

Last week was the first weekend played for Day since the restart. He stalled out on Sunday but there were plenty of positive takeaways from his opening three rounds of 67-69-69.

#14 Brandt Snedeker

Snedeker flashed that scorching hot putter at TPC River Highlands, gaining 4.99 strokes on the field. I'm terribly concerned about the rest of his game but savvy veterans are usually able to flip the script quickly.

#15 Harold Varner III

Varner's statistical profile last week was exactly what we are looking for. He gained 7.17 on Approach and lost 3.23 in his short game. He's generally a positive player on and around the greens, so he'd be labeled a prime "bounceback candidate."

#16 Branden Grace

Another victim of the cut line last week, Grace will look to bounceback this week in Detroit. It's been a rollercoaster year for Grace which includes a win in South Africa, a Top 10 at the Waste Management Open but three missed cuts in his last six starts.

#17 Kevin Kisner

With this being only the second year this event has existed, I do think there is some credence to golfers who played last year. Kisner checks that box but doesn't have much else going for him. He's missed two of three cuts in the restart and doesn't have a Top 15 since the Sony Open in January.

#18 Bubba Watson

Watson is notoriously volatile and disappointed last week at TPC River Highlands, where he has won three times this decade. The "good news" about Watson is that he is just as likely to finish Top 5 as miss the cut and he's still one of the best drivers on TOUR.

#19 J.T. Poston

Poston missed the cut at TPC River Highlands which shouldn't overshadow how good he has been since the restart. He had Top 10s in each of the first two weeks and finished 11th here at Detroit Golf Club last season.

#20 Harris English

English is one of the few golfers in the field who gains strokes in all four major categories, making his game very consistent. He didn't play last week but finished 17th at RBC Heritage, his fourth Top 20 in his last five starts on TOUR.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

Bets I've made as of 3:30 PM EST 6/29:

Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Sungjae Im +2200
Scottie Scheffler +4000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6600
Sebastian Munoz +12500

Top 5

Coming Soon...

Top 20

Coming Soon...

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (7-1)
2. Webb Simpson (11-1)
3. Viktor Hovland (20-1)
4. Patrick Reed (16-1)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)
6. Sungjae Im (25-1)
7. Tyrrell Hatton (16-1)
8. Scottie Scheffler (40-1)
9. Tony Finau (33-1)
10. Rickie Fowler (30-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Harris English WD
12 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13 Kevin Na
14 Doc Redman
15 Rory Sabbatini
16 J.T. Poston
17 Adam Hadwin
18 Jason Day
19 Erik Van Rooyen
20 Lucas Glover
21 Brandt Snedeker
22 Aaron Wise
23 Bubba Watson
24 Rafa Cabrera Bello
25 Brian Harman
26 Brendon Todd
27 Maverick McNealy
28 Branden Grace
29 Alex Noren
30 Kevin Kisner
31 Harold Varner III
32 Scott Stallings
33 Joseph Bramlett
34 Brian Stuard
35 Patrick Rodgers
36 Sebastian Munoz
37 Tom Hoge
38 Kyle Stanley
39 Mark Hubbard
40 Keegan Bradley
41 Emiliano Grillo
42 Danny Willett
43 Talor Gooch
44 Lanto Griffin
45 Matthew Wolff
46 Matt Jones
47 Russell Knox
48 Harry Higgs
49 Cameron Tringale
50 Adam Schenk
51 Andrew Putnam
52 Steve Stricker
53 Patton Kizzire
54 Sam Burns
55 Chris Kirk
56 Tom Lewis
57 Michael Thompson
58 Tyler Duncan
59 Luke List
60 Pat Perez
61 Bronson Burgoon
62 Cameron Davis
63 Nate Lashley
64 Jason Dufner
65 Matt Wallace
66 Sepp Straka
67 Aaron Baddeley
68 Chesson Hadley
69 Ben Martin
70 Si Woo Kim
71 Wyndham Clark
72 C.T. Pan
73 Henrik Norlander
74 Wes Roach
75 Ryan Armour
76 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
77 Zac Blair
78 James Hahn
79 Xinjun Zhang
80 Sam Ryder
81 Troy Merritt
82 Grayson Murray
83 Kevin Chappell
84 Cameron Percy
85 Charl Schwartzel
86 Beau Hossler
87 Hudson Swafford
88 Austin Cook
89 Chase Seiffert
90 Will Gordon
91 Seung-Yul Noh
92 Richy Werenski
93 Stewart Cink
94 Chris Baker
95 Peter Uihlein
96 Jimmy Walker
97 Kevin Tway
98 Scott Brown
99 Josh Teater
100 Sahith Theegala
101 Kramer Hickok
102 Brian Gay
103 Shawn Stefani
104 Tim Wilkinson
105 Robert Streb
106 Bo Hoag
107 Mark Anderson
108 D.J. Trahan
109 Wesley Bryan
110 Robby Shelton
111 David Hearn
112 Tyler McCumber
113 Bill Haas
114 Kristoffer Ventura
115 Rob Oppenheim
116 Roberto Castro
117 Fabian Gomez
118 Brandon Hagy
119 Doug Ghim
120 Peter Malnati
121 Jamie Lovemark
122 Ryan Blaum
123 Hank Lebioda
124 J.J. Spaun
125 Roger Sloan
126 Johnson Wagner
127 Vincent Whaley
128 Luke Donald
129 Ted Potter Jr.
130 Chris Stroud
131 Scott Harrington
132 Sebastian Cappelen
133 Ryan Brehm
134 Zack Sucher
135 Matt Every
136 Seamus Power
137 Ben Taylor
138 Michael Gligic
139 Jonathan Byrd
140 Lucas Bjerregaard
141 Michael Gellerman
142 Nelson Ledesma
143 Dominic Bozzelli
144 Vijay Singh
145 Rhein Gibson
146 Ricky Barnes
147 Greg Chalmers
148 Peter Kuest
149 Bo Van Pelt
150 Arjun Atwal
151 Michael Kim
152 James Nicholas
153 John Senden
154 Martin Trainer

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Gulfstream Horse Picks 7/1

Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:26 am

Lousy one yesterday. Today we have three races from Gulfstream. Goodluck

Race 1
#5 Hero Up $10 win place show
$2 exacta box 5-9-2

Race 5
#7 Sandy's Blaze $10 win place show
$2 exacta box 7-5-2

Race 9
#4 Gemo $10 win place show
$2 exacta box 4-3-6