Service Plays Tuesday 7/7/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Peter Kahn

BOXING

Jose Zepeda (32-2, 25 KOs) is facing late replacement Kendo Castaneda (17-1, 8 KOs) in a 10 round super lightweight bout. Boxing fans were originally slated for a treat with Zepeda and former IBF world champion Ivan Baranchyk set to fight, but Baranchyk pulled out one week ago with a rib injury. Instead of postponing the bout, Top Rank was able to get Castaneda to step in on short notice.

The oddsmakers have Zepeda, the former world title challenger, a -400 favorite to defeat the +300 underdog Castaneda. My personal belief is that this line is too low for Zepeda. I feel he should easily be a -1000 favorite in this particular fight.

Zepeda's two losses can be somewhat misleading. Both came in world title fights. His first loss to former world champion Terry Flannigan in 2015 was due to a dislocated shoulder in the second round. His second loss in 2019 was a close majority decision loss to Jose Ramirez, arguably the best super lightweight in the world. Zepeda had a unanimous decision win over former two-division world champion Jose Pedraza in 2019.

Castaneda has a two-inch height and reach advantage on Zepeda, and Castaneda's only loss came to a Top-50 rated super lightweight. Overall, though, he compiled his record against subpar opposition compared to the level of fighter he'll face Tuesday night. Castaneda is coming off his first career loss in February against Yomar Alamo. Coming back against Zepeda is a tall order. Zepeda is looking to establish himself as a world title challenger again and Castaneda won't stand in his way. Zepeda's southpaw stance, pressure, and experience are going to be the difference as he outclasses Castaneda en route to a victory.

Go with Zepeda, who could get a late TKO.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Canterbury Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Jess One Lane
ML favorite really improved when beating a few of these in his local debut and second start, looks like the speed here, and still has plenty of upside; love his chances right back.


#1 Corona White Socks
Price player was 3rd to the pick last time and is another who really woke up in his second start, so if he takes another forward leap, he's in with a serious chance; major player.


#6 Relentless Seis
Logical sort split the top-2 when 2nd last time, so clearly he figures, though he's the one who is going to have to chase 'Jess early, which won't help him late; might come unglued.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 2 but that 5-2 ML would be a big overlay, so play him aggressively to win and place at 8-5 or better, though you'll get some real value by singling him in the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, as that will allow for some added coverage in the surrounding legs, as he looks like he's got this group over a barrel.


Canterbury Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#5 Divas First Moon
Intriguing sort was a one-paced 3rd to a few of these last time in the mud, but that came off an October break, while they had the recency edge on her, which is not the case today, as she figures to improve in a big way off that tightener; upset special.


#9 Tipsy Girl B
The chalk was all-out to hold on last time over several here in a very game effort, and she had 3/4 of a length on the pick, but there's other speed here, and you're also allowed to wonder if she regresses off a very grueling effort; plenty scary, but no lock.


#1 Zoomn On Bye
Major player was just a neck short of the chalk last time, so you know she's going to be in the mix here, though the rail s no bargain, and she's another who could come up a bit short off that huge run, especially on a fast track as well; using underneath only.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 5, and she has every right to move forward off that comeback, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, since she could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.


Canterbury Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#1 Pyc Jess Bite Mydust
Stretch runner ran out of room going 300 last time, so the added ground should be to his liking, and the price will be square too; call to post the mild surprise.


#9 Danjer
The chalk has some gaudy figures and will get first run on the pick, but note he's won just once in his last seven starts, and he'll be overbet; trying to beat on top.


#10 Heza Blues Man
Veteran rarely wins but he usually comes with his run and gets a piece, and he's another who fits nicely on paper, and could be a price too; should be rallying late.


Race Summary
That 8-1 ML seems fair on the pick, as he no doubt has to improve, but the added distance will be key, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences, and he might get the right kind of setup to pull it off.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 Mrs. Chapman
Has shown better pace in recent races than she did in that only turf try in the career debut, so she's worth another look on the grass at a square price as she joins the local company for the first time.


#3 Mama Dune
Really sharp score against a soft group in the debut, and though she's stepping up in price and condition here, she is bred to handle the turf and is definitely not exposed after just the one start.


#5 Hell's a Poppin
Speed has never tried the turf but has handled synthetic footing just fine, and she proved a good fit with this level last out.


Race Summary
Mrs. Chapman is worth a look as she faces the local company for the first time, and I'm not totally sold on the 2/1 ML chalk #2 Matzo Bella who was summarily tossed out of the Servis barn and now the Maker barn has had enough, too.


Mountaineer - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#3 Mutasabeh
Potential chalk to be tough in this spot with a good effort under his belt last time out. He was taken down from that win, but he has the speed to find another good spot in here.


#5 Soul Beam
Should be right there in what looks like a very top heavy race -- these two and then a big gap in talent back to the rest. Still, he's 1-for-24 and I'm not jumping in at something like the 7/5 ML price.


#1 Frost Proof
Looks fast enough to make an early impact from the inside, and he has a couple of back turf races that might be good enough to land an underneath piece.


Race Summary
Probably the right race to decide which you like better between Mutasabeh and Soul Beam and let multi-race tickets ride on that decision. Unless you've got a big price somewhere else in the sequence that you like, don't double the price of the ticket to use both. Mutasabeh seems more likely to fire with fewer questions to answer.


Mountaineer - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#4 Level Seventeen
Has a bit of pace in a spot where the splits may not be too hot, and perhaps he can stick around better with that last one under his belt.


#7 Honey Saver
Looks like one of the ones to beat off the run last out when DQ'ed from the Belterra win, and something like that run keeps him in the mix as he steps up.


#3 Perfect Seeker
Tough call between this gut and #2 Kings Highway for this third spot, but 'Seeker has been in with much better groups than this for almost all of his career.


Race Summary
Level Seventeen should be a fair price here, and though she tends to give away ground late, she should get a pretty advantageous run of things near the top here, giving her a chance to hang around late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks The Meadows - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#3 CONCERTINA’S IMAGE
Couldn’t sustain first-over bid, better set-up and price today.


#6 ALWAYS A Z TAM
Responded to front-end tactics, beat several of same rivals.


#8 WILD NITE TINA
Inched closer in outer flow on final turn, gets Palone off the claim.


Race Summary
Concertina’s Image was flushed out of third midway on the backstretch, challenged pace-setting winner Always A Z Tam on the turn and was wrapped up while tiring in the stretch. She should get more pace to run at and could upset if she picks up cover this time.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 DOC’S HARMONY
Held off the faves in second-out victory from the rail, taken to repeat.


#4 WIGGLE DELIGHT
No threat against better in 1:51, gets second-time Lasix.


#2 MIA CULPA
Snapped bout with seconditis with pair of recent victories over track.


Race Summary
Doc’s Harmony showed promise with a late rush for second in her debut, then led throughout in her second start, holding off the 9-to-5 co-favorites through a :27.3 final quarter. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas in hopes that she continues to improve.


Pocono Downs - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 SMOKEE MIRRORS
Lacked running room, needs fast pace, use in gimmick wagers at a price.


#7 AXIOS
Won before the break, won after the break, seeks 30th win overall.


#5 ONE DIRECTION
Finished a distant third behind 1-to-5 repeat winner, draws better post.


Race Summary
Taking a longshot stab on Smokee Mirrors, who was trapped in mid-pack and showed mild late interest last week. He switches pilots for high-percentage barn. Play a 5-7-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 Sentimentaljourney
Was claimed by Amoss stable two back and post a win last out; very capable Indiana-bred and can be very tough stretching out to two turns here.


#4 Drinkatthecreek
Held on to 2nd last time in her best performance since last August; she was in strong allowance company at Oaklawn and was 4th in a claiming race two back at Churchill Downs.


#6 Sister Gema
Won and was claimed two back at Gulfstream Park and is now in the West stable; jockey Parker hitting at 20 percent and this gal should be tough with Indiana-breds.


Race Summary
Sentimentaljourney beat Indiana-breds in a 5-furlong race, which is not her cup of tea; she was 3rd in a stakes race last year and looks like an improved filly this season.


Indiana Grand - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Mad Grace
The only time she wasn't on the board in her last eight races came four back, when she reared and lost her rider; she can be on the front end or come from just off of it and has become a very competitive mare.


#7 Seeds of Time
Was claimed off a win last time and joined the Bernard Flint barn; has won three of her last five and is a good finisher.


#4 Centerfold Angel
Comes off a sharp score at Belterra Park and also won races at Turfway and Churchill; tough on or near the front end.


Race Summary
Mad Grace has been a model of consistency and can adjust to any pace; likely to get a good trip, whether she's on the front end or just off the leaders.


Indiana Grand - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#5 Quiet Company
Was up in time for a maiden-claiming score at Churchill and takes a step up in class; has trained well since her latest and Geroux makes the trip or the ride.


#7 Trivial
Scored in her last one at Fair Grounds in February and has taken on some tough allowance and upper claiming sorts.


#1 Ginseng
Lost a photo and was claimed at Churchill last out and makes her 1st for Lovell; solid player throughout.


Race Summary
Quiet Company goes for her 2nd straight after going winless in her 1st eight; capable of being in the mix throughout and it looks like she's developing into a turf router.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park



Belterra Park - Race 2

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)



Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 1:04P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 7. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. MOUNT EAGLE is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * DON'T STOP MARIA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PRINCESS DANIELA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

DON'T STOP MARIA

4/1


2/1




6

PRINCESS DANIELA

5/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

ROSEBUD'S TIGER

5


6/1

Front-runner

70


58


88.0


46.6


39.1




7

SUGAR CANDY ROSE

7


12/1

Front-runner

62


53


70.0


40.0


31.0




2

SHE'S A QUEEN

2


7/2

Front-runner

67


53


66.8


48.0


41.0




3

MOUNT EAGLE

3


5/2

Alternator/Stalker

79


64


0.0


0.0


0.0




6

PRINCESS DANIELA

6


5/1

Alternator/Trailer

64


63


50.2


52.8


47.8




4

DON'T STOP MARIA

4


4/1

Alternator/Trailer

83


76


47.0


64.4


60.4




1

OHIO SILVER

1


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

70


63


31.3


49.3


39.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park



Mountaineer Park - Race 3

$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 3 (races 3-5)$1 Wheel



Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 7:44P


FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * PERFECT SEEKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KINGS HIGH WAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LEVEL SEVENTEEN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the hor se is carrying at least 120 lbs. HONEY SAVER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



3

PERFECT SEEKER

2/1


7/2




2

KINGS HIGHWAY

3/1


5/1




4

LEVEL SEVENTEEN

5/1


7/1




7

HONEY SAVER

8/5


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

HONEY SAVER

7


8/5

Stalker

69


61


49.3


44.6


41.1




4

LEVEL SEVENTEEN

4


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

73


73


55.8


41.0


33.5




2

KINGS HIGHWAY

2


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

65


59


42.9


54.3


50.3




3

PERFECT SEEKER

3


2/1

Trailer

83


80


47.4


60.7


55.2




6

R. C. OWENS

6


30/1

Trailer

63


46


0.0


35.0


23.5




5

SHAENA BUE

5


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

61


51


40.8


46.6


35.6




1

CHOCOLATE TWIST

1


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


15.6


30.2


19.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 3 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 12 BETATHANABOYFRIEND 20/1




# 10 FRANKIE MACHINE 12/1




# 8 EZEKIEL 10/1




I think about BETATHANABOYFRIEND for this event and the potential return justifies the very dangerous nature of the long odds. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a competitive shot. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last race. Will make a good outing versus this bunch. FRANKIE MACHINE - Has to be considered versus this field displaying very good figs lately and an average speed fig of 81 under similar conditions. EZEKIEL - Very strong pick to take this race going in a dirt sprint. There is a strong possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (on) for the first time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 DOC CURLIN (ML=3/1)
#1 CITALI (ML=3/1)


DOC CURLIN - Dixon had been running this gelding at higher levels recently. Did win a non-classified race race though, on Jan 15th. Could do it again here. Mora rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last out and comes right back this race. I like a thoroughbred that manages to be there at the wire as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. CITALI - Rider hops up on board after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a good indicator. I like a campaigner that manages to be on the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a sharp effort last time out within the last thirty days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RED CLAY MAGIC (ML=9/5), #3 JACK BE QUICK (ML=7/2), #2 BAJAN CASH (ML=8/1),

RED CLAY MAGIC - Will not be easy for this animal to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. JACK BE QUICK - When checking today's class figure, he will have to earn a better speed figure than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint. BAJAN CASH - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs recently. Doubtful to see him doing it today either. The sixth place finish position in the last race was not that great. Improbable that the speed figure he notched on May 13th will be enough in this affair.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #4 DOC CURLIN on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 64

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 GREAT GRET 7/5




# 8 RED DIRT ROAD 15/1




# 5 RUDY'S BOY 20/1




I've got to go with GREAT GRET. Investors should feel comfortable with this selection given Cruz's recent profits at the window. The Equibase class rating of today's affair is much lower than his last affair. RED DIRT ROAD - The big drop in company can only aid this one this time around. Decent pick to take this race going in a dirt sprint. RUDY'S BOY - Has to be carefully examined as he drops to compete against this less demanding field of horses. This gelding should be given consideration just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:37pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 DOUBLE DOINK (ML=3/1)


DOUBLE DOINK - Servis drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to figure that this horse has a darn good chance at this level. I look for an improvement right here in this race with the addition of Lasix for the second time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A ICE DIAMOND (ML=9/5), #1 ROLLS ROYCE JOYCE (ML=9/5), #7 START OF ROYALTY (ML=5/1),

ICE DIAMOND - 9/5 is too low of a price to take on this participant. ROLLS ROYCE JOYCE - In all probability won't make much of a mark this time. START OF ROYALTY - 5/1 is just not enough of a price to take on this horse.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 DOUBLE DOINK to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[golden contender]

On Tuesday at 1:00 eastern our PREMIER LEAGUE soccer play is on Chelsea. Chelsea is in good shape to qualify for the Champions League, as they sit fourth in the table and a point off third-placed Leicester City. Crystal palace is toiling at the back of the pack in 14th place after dropping 3 straight. Chelsea has won the last four League meetings the last being a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge last November. Chelsea has won 8 of 10 here and had clean sheets in 7 of the last 10 here. Move on Chelsea. RV- Golden Contender Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:40 am
Italy - Serie A- Lecce vs. Lazio OVER 3 -146 (1:30 PM)
England - Championship- Luton Town vs. Barnsley OVER 2.5 +101 (1:00 PM)

England - Premier League- Watford -148 Norwich City (1:00 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks and Soccer 7/7

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:14 am
Here's a couple picks from Louisiana Downs and a soccer play. Goodluck.

100* Watford FC -140

Louisiana Downs Race 5
#8 Rich Icon $10 wps
$2 exacta box 8-3-1

Louisiana Downs Race 7
#3 All In Bronson $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-1-4