Service Plays Wednesday 7/15/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

Calvin Kattar (-280) vs. Dan Ige (+240): Kattar via unanimous decision

I really wanted to pick Ige here because I feel this betting line is a bit wide. The -280 gives us implied odds of 73.69 percent, and I don't think I can say Kattar wins this fight that often. He does have the striking edge and the power edge, but Ige has the grappling advantage and isn't completely outgunned on the feet. If this was a three-round fight, I believe Kattar would be lined in the -150 to -200 range. I do think the extra two rounds help him a lot here though, because Ige is much more likely to gas, and I would expect Kattar to win the fourth and fifth rounds. I am going to lean with Kattar as my pick for that reason, but I don't think there is any value in his betting line, and this is dog or pass for me.

Tim Elliott (-125) vs. Ryan Benoit (+105): Elliott via unanimous decision

Elliott gassed hard after just one round in his last fight, and that was only 1 1/2 months ago. I feel really good about Elliott winning round one here as well, but who knows what happens after that because he has not had the time to improve his cardio that much, and he has said he just wants to go out there and have exciting fights these days. I think Elliott could get a submission in the first or second round, or just win them with his pace and wrestling. So, if he can make it to the scorecards, I like him to win. I just think Benoit is going to win round three if it gets there and he could possibly put Elliott out if he doesn't have anything left in the tank. There is no value in Benoit at his line though, so this is actually Elliott or pass for me. He is just very hard to trust. I even think a draw could be in play, with Elliott winning the first two rounds and Benoit getting a 10-8 third.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 at Bristol.

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. And at The Brickyard this month, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season.


The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Denny Hamlin (11-2)
2. Joey Logano (7-1)
3. Chase Elliott (5-1)
4. Kevin Harvick (9-2)
5. Kyle Busch (7-1)
6. Brad Keselowski (8-1)
7. Ryan Blaney (10-1)
8. Martin Truex Jr. (13-1)
9. Kurt Busch (12-1)
10. Alex Bowman (20-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. Jimmie Johnson
12. Erik Jones
13. Matt Kenseth
14. Ryan Newman
15. Cole Custer
16. Justin Haley

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige

Top Picks

Abdul Razak Alhassan
Jack Shore
Calvin Kattar

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

GOLF

The revamped PGA Tour schedule continues on Thursday, July 16, when the 2020 Memorial Tournament tees off from Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. We simulated this tournament 10,000 times, and there are some MAJOR surprises.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over long shot winner Collin Morikawa last week at the Workday Charity Open. It identified him as a top contender from the start despite his long odds and McClure recommended an outright bet on him to win at 33-1. The model also called Bryson DeChambeau taking the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Additionally, it has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend.

The model predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend.

And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright.


Bets I've made this week as of 9:30 AM EST 7/13

Outright Winner:

Jon Rahm +2200
Daniel Berger +4000
Patrick Reed +5000
Abraham Ancer +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +7000
Paul Casey +8000

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Justin Thomas (11-1)
2. Rory McIlroy (12-1)
3. Patrick Cantlay (14-1)
4. Collin Morikawa (20-1)
5. Bryson DeChambeau (9-1)
6. Jon Rahm (22-1)
7. Hideki Matsuyama (25-1)
8. Xander Schauffele (28-1)
9. Webb Simpson (22-1)
10. Patrick Reed (50-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Viktor Hovland
12 Daniel Berger
13 Abraham Ancer
14 Dustin Johnson
15 Brooks Koepka
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick
17 Paul Casey
18 Justin Rose
19 Sungjae Im
20 Marc Leishman
21 Rickie Fowler
22 Gary Woodland
23 Matt Kuchar
24 Tony Finau
25 Joaquin Niemann
26 Tiger Woods
27 Kevin Streelman
28 Byeong Hun An
29 Billy Horschel
30 Jason Day
31 Harris English
32 Scottie Scheffler
33 Corey Conners
34 Harold Varner III
35 Adam Hadwin
36 Joel Dahmen
37 Bud Cauley
38 Sergio Garcia
39 Chez Reavie
40 Carlos Ortiz
41 Kevin Na
42 Kevin Kisner
43 Brendan Steele
44 Doc Redman
45 Jim Furyk
46 Rory Sabbatini
47 Lucas Glover
48 Brian Harman
49 Ian Poulter
50 J.T. Poston
51 Brendon Todd
52 Shane Lowry
53 Emiliano Grillo
54 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
55 Branden Grace
56 Nick Taylor
57 Max Homa
58 Bubba Watson
59 Louis Oosthuizen
60 Jason Kokrak
61 Brandt Snedeker
62 Keegan Bradley
63 Henrik Norlander
64 Maverick McNealy
65 Rafa Cabrera Bello
66 Sebastian Munoz
67 Jordan Spieth
68 Erik Van Rooyen
69 Denny McCarthy
70 Ryan Palmer
71 Vaughn Taylor
72 Alexander Noren
73 Talor Gooch
74 Jason Dufner
75 Patrick Rodgers
76 Cameron Champ
77 Danny Willett
78 Matthew NeSmith
79 Mark Hubbard
80 Danny Lee
81 Adam Long
82 Matthias Schwab
83 Tom Hoge
84 Zach Johnson
85 Charles Howell III
86 Cameron Smith
87 Phil Mickelson
88 Ryan Moore
89 Steve Stricker
90 Tyler Duncan
91 Dylan Frittelli
92 Bo Hoag
93 Andrew Landry
94 Stewart Cink
95 Brian Stuard
96 Hao Tong Li
97 Bernd Wiesberger
98 Sepp Straka
99 Lanto Griffin
100 Graeme McDowell
101 Xinjun ZHANG
102 Matt Wallace
103 Troy Merritt
104 Matthew Wolff
105 Nate Lashley
106 Sung Kang
107 Wyndham Clark
108 Harry Higgs
109 Ernie Els
110 Andrew Putnam
111 Tom Lehman
112 Charl Schwartzel
113 Victor Perez
114 Si Woo Kim
115 Scott Harrington
116 William McGirt
117 Jason Scrivener
118 Kevin Tway
119 Jazz Janewattananond
120 Mackenzie Hughes
121 Keith Mitchell
122 Andy Ogletree
123 Peter Kuest
124 Zac Blair
125 Scott Piercy
126 David Lingmerth
127 Cheng Tsung Pan
128 Jimmy Walker
129 Bill Haas
130 K.J. Choi
131 Jim Herman
132 Vijay Singh
133 Carl Pettersson

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rick Gehman

GOLF

With his expansive database of golf statistics, course data and betting odds, Gehman creates advanced models and back-tests them constantly. These models have produced 11 outright winners in the past year -- including 30-1 Webb Simpson at the 2020 RBC Heritage, 50-1 Chez Reavie at last year's Travelers and 40-1 Patrick Reed at the Northern Trust among nine PGA Tour winners -- plus a $10,000 DraftKings win at The Masters.

Two weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Gehman put Bryson DeChambeau atop his Fantasy rankings. The result? DeChambeau fired a 23-under, winning the tournament by three strokes. Last week at the Workday Charity Open, also at Muirfield, Gehman was higher than most on Collin Morikawa, and he won in a dramatic playoff over Justin Thomas. Gehman had pegged Thomas at No. 2.

At this year's WGC-Mexico Championship, four of Gehman's top six golfers finished tied for sixth or better!

Course Preview

This is the second of back-to-back weeks at Muirfield Village, a traditional Par 72 that features some of the smallest greens on TOUR. As we saw last week, this course bites back and can generate big scores if you're out of position. Expect the difficulty to be ramped up even more this week as the rough is grown out and the greens are rolling even faster.

Field Preview

Nine of the Top 10-ranked golfers in the world will converge on Muirfield Village, including Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Tiger Woods. This will be a slightly smaller field since this is technically an Invitational. If this looks like a Major-caliber field, it's because it is!

#1 Justin Thomas

Thomas looked like he had PGA TOUR win #13 sewn up on Sunday before losing in a playoff to Collin Morikawa. Despite the defeat, Thomas played his first 54 holes without a bogey and now has (4) Top 10s in his last five starts.

#2 Bryson DeChambeau

He's been unstoppable since the restart, with four consecutive Top-8 finishes. He took the week off last week after winning the Rocket Mortgage Challenge and will look to add a second Memorial title to his resume.

#3 Rory McIlroy

This is likely the lowest ranking I've ever had on McIlroy but he just hasn't played up to his own lofty standard since the TOUR has come back. He doesn't have a Top 10 in three starts but he's still the #1 player in the world. He has (2) Top 10 finishes at The Memorial in the last three years.

#4 Collin Morikawa

Morikawa never gave up last week, giving himself a chance to get into a playoff with Justin Thomas, in which he would ultimately prevail for his second PGA TOUR victory. Morikawa proves that elite ballstrikers find success at Muirfield Village.

#5 Viktor Hovland

DeChambeau has the hardware to argue, but I could make a case that Hovland has been the best golfer since the TOUR's restart. His T2G numbers are mind boggling, as he's gained 46.96 strokes from tee-to-green in that five start stretch. It's 17 more strokes than anyone else on TOUR in the same time period.

#6 Dustin Johnson

His win at the Travelers was reminiscent of prime Johnson. He was 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in Connecticut. While Johnson has never won The Memorial, he has (3) Top 15s in the last four years.

#7 Tiger Woods

Woods is back, making his first official start since The Genesis Invitational in mid-February. He's well rested and ready to contend at an event he's won a record five times.

#8 Webb Simpson

Simpson is always solid, with a win and 8th place finish in his last two starts. We saw last week that Muirfield Village is a second-shot course and Simpson is one of the best iron players on TOUR.

#9 Jon Rahm

Rahm looks like he could be on the brink of breaking out. After a slow restart to the TOUR schedule, he punctuated last week with a 64 on Sunday, the best round of the day and his best finish (T27) since the TOUR has returned.

#10 Daniel Berger

Remember Daniel Berger?! He has three consecutive Top 4 finishes on TOUR including a win and a third in the only two events he's played in the restart. It's crazy to have him ranked this low but it's a testament to how incredible this field is.

#11 Brooks Koepka

Koepka's game last week was difficult to digest. He had two terrible nine-hole stretches, shooting 38 & 41. He also looked brilliant at times, playing his other two nines in 31 & 33. You could argue the low score ability is on the surface for Koepka and he finally gets to compete in a "Major-like" environment.

#12 Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay started slow last week before firing a final-round 65 that included seven birdies and an eagle. He's now back to officially defend his Memorial title.

#13 Xander Schauffele

Schauffele flashed brilliance at times last week, with rounds of 69 and 66 en route to a T14. We've seen him elevate his game on the biggest stages, with career wins at the TOUR Championship, WGC HSBC Champions and the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

#14 Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama was in the thick of it through 36 holes, but faded on the weekend, shooting +1 across the two days. The good news is that he was 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green and has won The Memorial before. The bad news is that he still cannot putt, losing 4.07 strokes on the greens in the final two rounds alone.

#15 Paul Casey

Casey's only start recently was a 32nd at the Travelers and he hasn't played The Memorial since 2016 (MC). However, he's one of the world's best ballstrikers and we know that goes a long way at Muirfield Village.

#16 Gary Woodland

After a slow start, something clicked for Woodland who was the third best player in the field from Friday to Sunday. The concern is that he relied heavily on a hot putter but it was nice to see his name near the top of the leaderboard.

#17 Justin Rose

Major red flags for Rose who went 74-80 before missing the cut last week at Muirfield Village. He doesn't get any reprieve and will have to get right back out there this week. Historically, Rose has been great at this event including a victory and six other Top 10 finishes.

#18 Sungjae Im

Im has been completely pedestrian since the restart, gaining a total of 1.73 strokes on the field over five events. The real issue is his flatstick, which dropped over five strokes to the field on the weekend at the Workday Charity Open.

#19 Tony Finau

Finau made news over the last week by shooting a 59 at his home courses and pummeling drives on Instagram over 380 yards. The problem is that none of that matters on the PGA TOUR and Finau has lacked winning upside in his career.

#20 Rickie Fowler

It's been a long road for Fowler as he goes through his well-documented swing changes. He opened with a 72 and finished with a 73 at the Workday but his 69 & 66 in the middle two rounds were full of birdies and reasons to be optimistic.

#21 Patrick Reed

Reed's third-round 76 was his demise and he relied heavily on the short game all week. There are few guys on TOUR who can "click" with winning upside and Reed is on the short list.

#22 Marc Leishman

An abomination of a second round for Leishman, who shot a 77 en route to a missed cut. The good news is that most of the damage came on the greens, which is a high volatile stat and can easily bounceback just a few days later.

#23 Matt Kuchar

It was a sour weekend for Kuchar, playing his final two rounds at +2. The positive is his tournament history, winner of The Memorial in 2013 and six other Top 10s.

#24 Abraham Ancer

I'm certainly concerned with the lack of distance off the tee from Ancer but his ability to hit fairways will be more valuable this week than last. As the rough is expected to be grown out, being in position will be "Objective #1" all week long.

#25 Jason Day

Day had a very quiet T7 last week, only his third Top 10 finish since the 2019 Masters. Statistically he was well rounded but consistency has been the issue for Day. I'll be very impressed if he can back it up again this week.

#26 Kevin Streelman

It's possible that I'm under-valuing Streelman here who finished T7 last week and has (4) Top 20 finishes at The Memorial in the last five years. He rode a hot putter for the majority of last week and I'm worried where he could finish if that runs cold.

#27 Doc Redman

After an off-week, Redman returns and looks to continue his excellent ballstriking. Redman is 8th on TOUR in total Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green since the restart.

#28 Brendan Steele

Steele possessed the statistical profile of a guy to invest in, gaining over eight strokes from tee-to-green. That was good for 7th in the field at the Workday Charity Open.

#29 Henrik Norlander

Another solid showing for Norlander who finished T31 last week at the Workday. He's now made three straight cuts since the Travelers and will look to continue the momentum this week at Muirfield Village.

#30 Rory Sabbatini

It was a bounceback performance for Sabbatini after the missed cut in Detroit to post a T17 at the Workday. He started Sunday inside the Top 10, but couldn't put a capper on his week, closing with a 73.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti Jul 15 '20, 2:15 PM in 15h
Soccer | Belenenses vs Sporting Braga
Play on: Sporting Braga -1½ -120 at betonline

Wednesday Featured Free Play
The Soccer Comp Play for Wednesday is on Sporting Braga -1.5 goals over Belenenses at 2:15 eastern. Braga have won all but 2 of 20 meetings in the series here and will control the tempo with an attacking defense and ball control. They have clean sheets win in the last 2 matches and have won 4 of the last 5. Belenenses averages under a goal per game and struggles even against mediocre teams at the bottom of the table. They are a few points from going into the relegation zone. They have a whole bunch of absentees and injury concerns for this match and this motivated Sporting team is just too good in this one and should coast to an easy win.. For the Soccer comp play Go with Sporting Braga -1.5 goals. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule Jul 15 '20, 1:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United
Play on: Tottenham Hotspur -134 at pinnacle

This is a Free play on Spurs.
The season is winding down for Premier League teams, but neither of these teams are in any heated battles for Champions League spots, or relegation. Jose Mourino's side still has plenty to prove though, as their form during the return to play has been bitterly disappointing. They have still managed three wins and a draw in their last five matches, and they appear to be catching Newcastle at a good time. Several key defenders are sidelined by injury, leaving Newcastle quite thin at the back. This should open things up for Harry Kane and company. We expect Jose to be celebrating a win here.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Jul 15 '20, 1:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | Falkenbergs vs Djurgardens
Play on: Djurgardens -183 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Djurgardens -183

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Canterbury Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 All Under Control
Stalker was a distant 2nd to a romping winner in fast time in his local bow, drew perfectly for a potent Silva barn (31%), and will be tracking what looks like a hot pace; look out.


#2 Go Away
GP invader enters off a win in the slop last time for Walder but now makes his local debut for an ice cold Van Winkle barn, so while he hits hard, he's an underlay too; second-best.


#4 Clear the Mine
ML favorite will like the race flow and was just a solid 3rd to a loose #7, who won't clear here, but he's also off the claim for Villafranco (14%) and no longer with Silva; tread lightly.


Race Summary
That 6-1 ML seems very fair on the 1, who has a lot of positives in a race where some of the main contenders have a few knocks, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as to kick off the late Pk4, since a a win at double digit odds, in a deep field, would add plenty of value to both sequences.


Canterbury Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Aife
Fair Grounds miss looked good winning two of her last three in NOLA and her only blemish was when in way over her head two-back, has a lot more tactical speed than her main rival, and will be a solid price too; look out.


#8 Winning Envelope
The obvious gal to beat wins this with her best, as she's a classier filly than the pick, but she also will be overbet, and has a decided lack of early speed, which may leave her with too much to do in the lane; runs out of room.


#1 Firstmate
The best of the locals is 2-for-2 here on the grass and enters off a state-bred stakes win, and while this is obviously a sizable step up in class, she's in the mix on figures, drew well, and will be a nice price too; exotics appeal.


Race Summary
That 4-1 ML makes the 4 very playable, especially since the 8 will be open lengths behind her when they exit the far turn, so play her in all the slots, and especially to 10% takeout Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since budget players might be singling the chalk, which means a win by the pick would knock out a lot of tickets in both sequences.


Canterbury Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#3 Polarcents
MSW dropper will relish this easier crew, as not only did he face some toughies in his first here last time, but he was in against much better at WRD and OP too; looks like his time.


#4 Biscottini
ML chalk was a distant 4th in a lightning fast race for the level last time, so a repeat would make him a major player, though at 5-2 he would be tough to take; underlaid contender.


#9 Alittle Bit Techie
The wildcard comes in off a good then bad race at GG on the Tapeta for Wong and now goes to Diodoro, who we know is aces, but that dud last time makes you worry; tabbing today.


Race Summary
There's plenty of reason to like the 3, and unlike the 4 and 9, he's ever been in this light on the class scale, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get a bit of additional value by keying him in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since both the other two main contenders will take plenty of action, even though it's the pick who looks like he's getting all the best of it here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#8 No Way Never
Gets into an easier spot here and owns some back sprint races that would be very tough with these. Likely second choice looks like the one.


#7 Alasaal
Drops in with easier company tonight, but he's likely to be overbet here and tends to give away ground late in the lane.


#4 R Paper Chaser
Even comeback run stacks up nicely enough with these, and any step forward in this second start off the bench would keep him in the mix at a price.


Race Summary
No Way Never and Alasaal look tough here, and maybe trying to get R Paper Chaser to split them in the gimmicks is the way to make this race pay.


Mountaineer - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#9 J W Ruckus
Should get a pretty dreamy go of things from right up on a fairly modest set of splits, and he can probably stick around a bit better with that roughly 90-day comeback run out of the way.


#2 Stormcoast
Steps up off a nice win with conditioned claiming company, and though he has found this level a bit tough in the past, this isn't the deepest bunch for this kind.


#6 Rum on the Rocks
Reliable turf efforts locally have him right in the mix again with these, and he'd be plenty interesting at anything like the 9/2 ML offering.


Race Summary
J W Ruckus should get a nice run from near the top, and his overall form is competitive with what it'd take to win in this spot. Expecting better tonight.


Mountaineer - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 Come on City
Has positional pace to find a good spot near the top early on, and that was a solid comeback off the long layoff last out.


#6 Violet Blue
No clue what to make of this one off the long layoff while dropping out of GIII company. Plenty of back turf tries fit, but something tells me she's not coming back running like she was last summer.


#1 Pride of Wilko
Loves the local lawn with an 11-for-18 career record here, and she posted a nice win off the layoff last out that should have her set for something even better here.


Race Summary
Come on City is interesting off the good run last time out, and she's probably capable of something a little bit better this time around.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 SWEET LULLABY
Shrugged off odds-on favorite with ease, can’t go beyond.


#4 ALWAYS ARTISTIC
Four deep in outer flow, rode rail in stretch, just missed second.


#1 RACING FOR RICK
No threat to pace-setting winner, Miller’s choice over ‘Artistic.’


Race Summary
Sweet Lullaby parked the 1-to-2 favorite and had plenty left to prevail against many of the same rivals she meets today. Key her on all exotic wagers and play a 6-4-ALL trifecta.


The Meadows - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#1 TEGGERS HANOVER
Surprising rally at 90-1, taken to upset with favorable post switch.


#8 BIG KIZ
Seeks third consecutive victory with Palone.


#7 AMERICA FIRST
Chased Big Kiz from the pocket but couldn’t reach as odds-on choice.


Race Summary
Teggers Hanover launched a strong 3- and 4-wide rally in the final quarter mile to finish third at 90-1. He could turn the tables on the favorites with a rail starting spot. Play 1-7 and 1-8 exactas.


Northfield Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 SMUDGE
Met streaking rival in latest, can sustain bid in this field.


#1 MATTY WILL
Invader has best recent speed figures but 0-56 record to go with it.


#8 MAX PLAY
Led long way in traffic-marred race, will be underlay as a result.


Race Summary
Smudge rallied mildly in the middle half against a 1-to-9 rival who was winning for the fourth consecutive time. He can run past these with a similar-type move. Play 2-1 and 2-8 exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Pert
Was up in time in 2 of her last 3 and her only Gulfstream start produced a victory; can be in a good position throughout.


#4 Miss My Macho
On the board in 4 of her last 5 at Gulfstream and was a sharp winner for a higher price two races back; can apply the pressure throughout.


#2 Interest
Dropped in class last time and was haltered by the Sanchez stable; ran 2nd in that one and has taken 3 of 5 at Gulfstream.


Race Summary
Pert scored nicely on or near the front end last out and has shown she can be comfortable positioned anywhere in the field.


Gulfstream Park - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 American Phenom
Didn't break well and can rolling for a 4th-place finish and was claimed out of that by the Crichton barn; steps up to maiden special company and has trained well for this.


#2 R Private Jet
Has been impressive during morning activities and the Baxter stable has the Khozan gelding ready for his initial try; he's bred to sprint on grass.


#3 Chamberlain
Has been outrun on the main track and can improve in moving to the turf; has the advantage in experience.


Race Summary
American Phenom is an American Pharoah colt originally purchased by $340K and was claimed for $50K in his 1st start; trainer Crichton has given him plenty of time between starts and he should be effective in stepping up in class.


Gulfstream Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#5 Thissmytime
Was outstanding in a fast score last time and likely will be dismissed at a decent price; worth the chance.


#6 Loriloupies
Clearly will be the favorite after easy wins in her last two; has fast works and will be extremely tough here.


#7 Cajun Delight
Gave way early in a stakes race in her latest after an easy maiden win; has plenty of works and fits in this spot.


Race Summary
Thissmytime was up in time in her 3rd career start and can make a solid challenge; started out at Belmont, where she was 3rd fall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

UFC Pick 7/15

Wed Jul 15, 2020
Nice one yesterday. 2-0 in soccer and Glenn's Jumper wins the 1st at Louisiana Downs. Here's a UFC picks. Should have some horses later for you.

100* Tim Elliott -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park



Canterbury Park - Race 3

Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)



Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 83 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 5:40P


NORTHBOUND PRIDE OAKS - FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Stalker. URBAN FAIRYTALE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * URBAN FAIRYTALE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DELIA O'HARA: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within th e last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



3

URBAN FAIRYTALE

2/1


3/1




5

DELIA O'HARA

5/1


6/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

MACHOS VISION

6


10/1

Front-runner

78


68


73.5


41.8


30.8




7

SMART N WICKED

7


9/2

Front-runner

81


80


69.4


69.4


62.4




2

DEFEND THE ROSE

2


6/1

Front-runner

66


64


64.6


64.6


54.6




4

LILFEATHEREDINDIAN

4


15/1

Front-runner

88


88


41.3


13.5


1.0




3

URBAN FAIRYTALE

3


2/1

Stalker

84


84


74.0


80.7


77.7




5

DELIA O'HARA

5


5/1

Stalker

80


77


68.1


68.1


62.1




1

ASK BAILEY

1


3/1

Trailer

89


86


70.9


72.8


67.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs



Louisiana Downs - Race 6

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta



Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 5:22P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CLUB SODA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CLUB SODA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. RED CLAY MAGIC: Today i s a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



1A

CLUB SODA

3/1


5/2




8

RED CLAY MAGIC

8/5


4/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1A

CLUB SODA

6


3/1

Front-runner

88


91


104.6


84.6


80.1




1

CANIHAVEITLIKETHAT

3


3/1

Front-runner

71


81


74.6


58.6


43.1




8

RED CLAY MAGIC

9


8/5

Alternator/Front-runner

96


83


70.4


77.2


74.2




4

GOLDEN TIGER

4


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

94


88


78.8


73.8


65.3




3

POPULIST

2


12/1

Alternator/Stalker

74


75


63.0


75.4


64.4




5

ADMIRAL BROWN

5


5/1

Trailer

79


76


43.8


74.0


67.0




7

NO DEBATE

8


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

62


71


84.2


63.5


52.0




6

BELMONT HILLS

7


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

79


64


67.8


62.4


48.9




2

WICKED CITI

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

65


68


39.3


60.0


46.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 PATRIOTSNBLUE 6/1




# 3 SPARKLINGONTHEBEACH 12/1




# 7 FLINT RIVER BUX 15/1




My selection in this race is PATRIOTSNBLUE. FLINT RIVER BUX - I think having Aguilarorozco ride this gelding is a smart selection. Has performed soundly lately in short races, posting a nifty 65 avg speed rating.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,200 Class Rating: 92

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#7 SCIENCE TO WIN (ML=15/1)
#2 STORMCOAST (ML=3/1)
#10 DUPLICATOR (ML=4/1)


SCIENCE TO WIN - I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the trip. This entrant could be tough in this race, especially since Barrios rode in the last race and now should be more familiar with this one. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that to continue in this field. Classic handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. STORMCOAST - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your betting money onto this jock/trainer combination. This gelding is in excellent condition right now. Ended up first last time around the track and comes back soon. Trainer, Jenkins, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. DUPLICATOR - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for a double. This gelding has a lot of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they turn for home.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RUM ON THE ROCKS (ML=9/2), #9 J W RUCKUS (ML=5/1), #3 RAISON KARTER (ML=8/1),

RUM ON THE ROCKS - No pace in this field to help set-up his late rally. J W RUCKUS - This gelding hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance events. I find it hard to play him in this event. RAISON KARTER - When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to notch a better speed fig than last time out to be competitive in this turf sprint.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 SCIENCE TO WIN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [2,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,7,10] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[2,7,10] with [2,7,10] with [2,4,5,7,10] with [2,4,5,7,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,300 Class Rating: 68

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#3 MISS LAURA LOU (ML=3/1)
#5 PINK PAJAMAS (ML=9/2)
#4 ANNISQUAM (ML=8/1)


MISS LAURA LOU - I like a campaigner that manages to be in the money as often as this mare. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. Schuster drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more information to think this horse has a shot at this level. Trainer, Schuster, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. PINK PAJAMAS - I think this mare is ready to run a good one. She's had enough efforts since the layoff and should be fit. The Jul 1st event at Thistledown was at a class level of (80). Dropping to a lower level a significant amount, so she should be in a good position. After a nice race two starts ago, this equine bounced. Now today, I expect another good performance. ANNISQUAM - This mare's last race was back on February 5th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a vacation. Taking a big class drop in class figure points from her Feb 5th race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this one the edge. Just check out her last speed fig, 59. That one fits well in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ALMIGHTY STORM (ML=5/2), #2 COOL IRIS (ML=7/2), #1 BLACK BUTTE (ML=6/1),

ALMIGHTY STORM - The finish of fifth in the last race shows me that this horse may be tailing off. COOL IRIS - This racer hasn't been close to the winner at the wire lately. BLACK BUTTE - This horse hasn't been close to the winner at the finish of late.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #3 MISS LAURA LOU on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [4,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 15, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 2 WITT'S GOLD 7/5




# 1 LEGENDARY LARRY 8/5




# 4 NORM'S PLACE 6/1




WITT'S GOLD looks strong to best this field. Looks competitive to be close to the lead at the first call. I can't pass on this gelding given one of the strongest jockey and conditioner combos on the grounds. Gamblers using horses with this jock and conditioner duo have done well as of late. LEGENDARY LARRY - Could best this field here, showing very strong numbers of late. With a nice class figure average of 88, has one of the most competitive class advantages in this group of horses. NORM'S PLACE - Kling makes a blinkers change (going off today), looking for better results. Should definitely be considered here if only for the strong speed rating posted in the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



07/15/20, GP, Race 4, 1.34 ET
07/15/20,GP,4,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000 (includes up to $10,000 FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund). FOR STATE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 118 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
11
Whistler Dixie
12-1
Lebron V
Hamm Timothy E.
W
34.88
1.21/$1


099.4467
7
Frankly My Dear
3-1
Maragh R
Iwinski Allen
FEL
33.60
1.19/$1


099.2350
8
Naval Wave
9/2
Jaramillo E
McPeek Kenneth G.
J
32.17
1.06/$1


099.2230
2
Causingahullbaloo
6-1
Zayas E J
Casse Mark E.


32.17
1.06/$1


098.9798
5
Raining Sunshine
8-1
Prado E S
McPeek Kenneth G.


32.17
1.06/$1


098.6518
3
Gulf Coast Gal
4-1
Vasquez M A
Nicks Ralph E.


32.17
1.06/$1


098.0551
4
Extinquish
20-1
Rios J M
Yates Michael
T
33.60
1.19/$1


097.9163
10
Nyssa
10-1
Torres C A
Braddy J. David
C
36.36
1.31/$1


095.8267
6
Battle Cry
20-1
Meneses M
Rodriguez Angel M.


32.17
1.06/$1


095.3394
9
Sophisticurl
12-1
Camacho S
Barbazon III Lester
S
32.78
1.09/$1


094.6814
1
Mangrove Mamma
15-1
Panici L
Bates Larry


32.17
1.06/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.53, ROI 0.92/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Nascar (Wed) Kyle Busch +700

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE HORSE RACING WINNER 7/15/20
RACE #8 from EMERALD DOWNS
POST TIME: 6:03 PM EST
Free Pick: #7 Winning Bluff 9/2 Odds to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige

Top Picks

Abdul Razak Alhassan
Jack Shore
Calvin Kattar

Fight Picks

Calvin Kattar (-300) vs. Dan Ige (+250): Kattar
Tim Elliott (-120) vs. Ryan Benoit (+100): Elliott
Jimmie Rivera (-135) vs. Cody Stamann (+115): Stamann
Molly McCann (-120) vs. Taila Santos (+100): McCann
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-325) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+265): Alhassan
Khamzat Chimaev (-320) vs. John Phillips (+260): Chimaev
Ricardo Ramos (-155) vs. Lerone Murphy (+135): Ramos
Modestas Bukauskas (-220) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+190): Michailidis
Jared Gordon (-145) vs. Chris Fishgold (+125): Gordon
Diana Belbita (-160) vs. Liana Jojua (+140): Belbita
Jack Shore (-700) vs. Aaron Phillips (+500): Shore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

NASCAR

Bets I'm making:

Most of my All-Star Race betting will be live betting once the race has started, or at least after the qualifying and fan vote have taken place. The only pre-race bet I'm making is Denny Hamlin +650

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Denny Hamlin (13-2)
2. Joey Logano (8-1)
3. Chase Elliott (13-2)
4. Kevin Harvick (9-2)
5. Kyle Busch (5-1)
6. Brad Keselowski (8-1)
7. Ryan Blaney (10-1)
8. Martin Truex Jr. (17-2)
9. Kurt Busch (14-1)
10. Alex Bowman (18-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. Jimmie Johnson
12. Erik Jones
13. Matt Kenseth
14. Ryan Newman
15. Cole Custer
16. Justin Haley