Service Plays Friday 7/17/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
LAUREL PARK
RACE #8
POST TIME: 4:33 PM EST
PICK: #14 Whiskey and You(6/1 Odds) to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis July 17, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Hoosier Park has 14 races scheduled with the 0.50 Pick 4 beginning in Race 3 and that sequence will be my focus. On Thursday in Anderson the driver with the hottest hands was Ricky Macomber with three wins. It was a team effort as the leading conditioner on the night was Jamie Macomber with three trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections are based on a fast track.

Race 3

2-Secret Threat (3-1)-Even effort to finish 3rd as the post-time favorite and now drops. The Tyler George barn has been sizzling, 17 wins in last 30 days. But 8-year-old has only 5 starts in '19-'20, so there are issues but will respect here.
5-Rock Solid Image (4-1)-Faded in last from the 8-hole in 152.2 which was a tick off lifetime best mark in 2019. Gets a good post draw and has the gate speed to lead from start to finish.
6-Elite Awards (15-1)-Tossing last from the 10-hole and price shot has beaten better here after the restart. Drops to a spot to shine. Macomber drives his own so Hiteman takes a seat and 9-year-old knows his way to the HoP winner's circle.

Race 4

3-Blazin River N (7/2)-Qualified at HoP in 151.2 on 7/8 and went the back half in .54 all on his own. Choked as the chalk on 7/26 at this same class. Very lightly raced 5-year-old is a threat if all systems are go.
4-Mykindachip (4-1)-Stayed inside versus better as they went to the half in 53.4. Didn't hit the board but still had a 27.2 last quarter and now faces easier. Winner of >$940k has won 23% of HoP starts (22-97) and looks like a player tonight.

Race 5

7-Keyston Tenacious (5/2)-Program chalk drops out of Open company and this is a better spot for a picture. Has hit the board 14 times in 21 starts at HoP and booked 6 wins. The post might be a challenge but can win with a good steer.
8-Roan Color (6-1)-Rolled the back half in 54.2 to beat the $30k claimers last week at 32-1. That opportunity is gone but should be a square price here. It looks like the pace could be hot and if so chances for a picture go up.
9-TYD Theglyde (8-1)-Faced 5 from this field last week and picked up a 3rd place check. Similar to #8, went the 2nd half in a swift .54. Slow starter is pace dependent but is worth a swing at 8-1 in the morning line.

Race 6

2-Rockin Mercedes (3-1)-Was used a couple of times in HoP debut, and 1st start in the George barn to score at 9/2 at this same class. Dover invader deserves respect and should be bet hard.
3-Rock N Fantasy (6-1)-Bumps up after a sharp score versus $12k claimers last week. Loses Widger to #6 but De Long can provide a good steer. Uppal barn has been rolling, might be overlooked at the windows and surprise at a nice price.
5-Rush To Judgement (7/2)-Has been facing $20k and $25k claimers and should like the company but is 0-5 at HoP. Will use but best work has come on the 5/8's at DTN and might be over bet on the class drop.
6-N Expense (9/2)-Was used hard in the opening half last week and faded down the lane as a 6/5 choice. My guess is Widger may work a different trip and come off cover. Pace should be honest and could roll by late at a square price.

0.50 Pick 4

2,5,6/3,4/7,8,9/2,3,5,6
Total Bet=$36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Jul 17 '20, 7:30 AM in 1h
PGA | Sungjae Im vs Marc Leishman
Play on: Sungjae Im +110 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Sungjae Im +110

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Las Vegas Freeze- Twitter VIP

$4000 KBO- NC DINOS -1.5 -110
$5000 SOCCER- West Ham under 2.5 -140
$4000 SOCCER MLS- Kansas City ML +100

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Hunter Price Jul 17 '20, 3:00 PM in 8h
Soccer | Lugo vs Tenerife
Play on: Lugo +373 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Lugo +373

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Saratoga - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#10 Brunate
Price player had a bit of a trip last time but ran well to be 2nd to a rousing winner, while well clear of 3rd, and meets a crew there for the taking; can surprise.


#1 Dawn's Early Light
The chalk has the best form here and clearly is the one to beat, but a short price and the rail are no bargains, and he has no upside either; trying to beat on top.


#4 Kabob
Longshot had some trouble on debut for a Handal barn that is 0'fer with firsters, but this is a sharp barn, this one will improve, and will be a big price; exotics appeal.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 10, and aside from the 1 there's no one to fear here, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win would add some value to both sequences, and he looks to be coming up to a strong race in the third start of his form cycle.


Saratoga - Race #0


Picks
Notes


#3 First Rate
Stalker will try two turns, which is an unknown for him on the dirt, but he's certainly bred for it, gets Jose Ortiz, and meets a field with plenty of early speed to sit just off of; look out.


#4 The Rock Says
Odds-on ML favorite will take some beating off the Atras claim (31%), and his best wins this easily, but his last against lesser was disappointing, and he'll be way overbet; backwheel time.


#5 Ghost Game
Well-bred son of Ghostzapper will try two turns but is another who is bred for the trip, and now goes off the claim for J T Servis, a 2-for-4 move, and he can stalk too; could be very live.


Race Summary
The price and the pace should both be right with the 3, and, aside from the 4, who will be way overbet, there's no one here he can't compete with, so give him a look to win and place, and in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the chalk, which means a win by the pick would play a lot longer than what tote toteboard might show.


Saratoga - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#3 Passing Out
Lightly raced miss was a no-chance 3rd to a loose Rushing Fall in the GIII last time, yet ran huge to pass a few, now gets a ton of class relief, and yet won't be favored; love her chances here.


#9 Blowout
The most fancied of the Brown quartet (yes, that's correct) has speed and was classy at 3, but she hasn't been out since Oct., so this could be a prep for bigger down the road; second-best.


#1 Catch a Bid
Course and distance stakes winner at 3 came back with a solid win at CD, when walking on the lead, but she won't get that trip here, and will likely be overbet too; using her underneath only.


Race Summary
You could do worse than getting $9 on the pick, but that's in play here with four from Brown taking a lot of money, even though this miss has the class and form that you could argue makes her the favorite, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she ran huge last time, and looks poised for a breakthrough run, which means she'd be throwing down a race even the heady quartet might not be able to handle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Snow Job
Chased the speed before fading late in the Gulfstream debut, and he meets a field without a ton of early speed. Forward player fits here.


#5 Makoto
Even kind of run in the turf debut, but the dam has produced some really good two-turn horses, so there might be some upside here on the stretchout.


#1 Seville Row
Has shown a bit of finishing punch in the two turf tries, but her overall form still feels a bit light in this spot. Underneath.


Race Summary
Snow Job flashed some speed in the debut and figures for another good go of things near the top. She figures capable of staying on better with that race under her belt.


Laurel Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#6 Fiya
Not sure he beat much in that win, but he sure looked good doing it. He didn't fight a bit of mild early restraint -- something that might serve him well here in a race with plenty of speed -- and was confidently handled in the lane before being asked a bit. He can win right back.


#8 Abuelo Paps
Tries turf for the first time here with a quick maiden win under his belt, and he has some ability to settle and finish like the top choice.


#3 Matta
Turned in a couple of really nice turf sprints last year, and he should be in line for a really nice trip from close range here.


Race Summary
There might be some pace coming from the wider draws, and that may allow Fiya to settle just behind decent splits. His turf debut was awesome, and something similar would keep him in the mix with winners. Wouldn't want him beating me in the payout leg of the Stronach 5.


Laurel Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#2 Saintly Samurai
Doesn't meet a ton of other pace except for the guy drawn on the rail, and this one scored at the trip here last summer. Mixes it up early and holds off the finishers?


#7 Sparty
Has some ability to sit near the top, and that would probably serve him well from the wide draw today. Think he's dicey late.


#1 Welling
Probably has to try to go from the fence with Saintly Samurai able to show some speed from right outside of him, but the maiden win was pretty solid and this mile trip, and he's in the kind of form to win this.


Race Summary
Saintly Samurai can get the right kind of forward trip, likely from just off the rail runner, and he exits a couple of pretty tough spots from last year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 YEN
Rallied into slow pace to enhance 7-9 in-the-money record.


#2 SHEZ KADABRA COOL
Decent numbers while no factor from outside posts.


#6 SUSIES LADY
Bothered when fave broke stride early, loomed 3-wide in early stretch when she broke.


Race Summary
Yen followed the winner 3-deep in the outer flow on the final turn and surged late to finish third. She benefitted when the favorite went off stride early in the race but was compromised by a slow middle half mile. Play a 2-5-6 exacta box.


Northfield Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 MCMAEDLE
Best numbers, best company lines, seeks first win of year on class drop.


#1 DIXIE LULLABY
Rallied mildly while second-over at notch below, moves outside in.


#7 ISLAND OF ROCK
Can carry speed farther in this field, could make exotics pay.


Race Summary
Mcmaedle met odds-on winners in three of his last four starts, gets needed class relief and should be on the move early in a pace-less race. He is strictly the one to beat despite an 0-15 record in 2020.


Hawthorne - Race #11


Picks
Notes


#8 STRAIT RATE
Better than latest appears, must use on all tickets despite post.


#3 RJ WULFY
Faded through :55.4 back half, gets second-time Lasix.


#1 BRIGHT BOY
Rallied from clouds to finish second in last pair, moves outside in.


Race Summary
Strait Rate stayed inside while the outer flow developed, was blocked with run in mid-stretch, then finished strong in the 4-path while out of the money. He had a useful comeback off a lengthy layoff prior, so let’s make him today’s Best Bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Whyruawesome
Dropped to the bottom last time and responded with a sharp score; had been running vs. much higher levels and should be able to have this step up in class.


#3 Quijote
Drops in class after running 5th; taking a sizable step down the ladder and fits with these.


#5 Tiz Approved
Has the speed to get on or very near the front end and won three in easy fashion until losing last time; serious player.


Race Summary
Whyruawesome was good last time out, was claimed by Marcial Navarro, and can be in the mix throughout.


Gulfstream Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Miss Miami
Comes out of much tougher races and moves over to the main track, where she ran third in more of her dirt opportunities; rates the class edge.


#1 Talkthetalk
Ran from a bit off the pace in her last two and got good results -- a win and a 2nd; can secure a ground-saving run just off the leaders and can be a late player.


#3 Flashing Diamond
Was 3rd in two of her last three and is an eight-time winner over this strip; can be troublesome with a well-timed move.


Race Summary
Miss Miami ran well in races than came off the turf and is being aimed for the dirt this time; tired in her latest but can get a solid off-the-pace run vs. these.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#8 War Star
Ran from back in the pack last time and made a strong run for 3rd vs. similar; can win with a better start and a clean trip.


#3 Heir Ball
Set the pace and held on for the win last time and has taken three of her last seven; was claimed two back by David barn and that operation goes for its 2nd straight.


#4 Merseyside
Comes out of a tougher race and can be on or close to the leader in this one; Joseph barn still hitting at 24 percent.


Race Summary
War Star was buried in the pack for much of her latest but made a strong move once clear; one to hold off in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for North Dakota Horse Park



North Dakota Horse Park - Race 8

$2 Win, Place, Show Second Half Late Double / $1 Exacta $.50 Trifecta / $.10 cent Superfecta



Stakes • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $2,500 • Post: 9:00P


WELCOME HOME S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UP. $150 TO ENTER, DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. WEIGHTS: 3 YEAR OLDS .124 OLDER.126.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PIERPONT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PIERPONT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. EMPIRICAL DATA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



2

PIERPONT

6/5


2/1




5

EMPIRICAL DATA

5/2


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




2

PIERPONT

2


6/5

Front-runner

86


89


88.4


74.8


71.8




5

EMPIRICAL DATA

5


5/2

Front-runner

77


71


70.8


64.8


57.8




3

STARS ALIGNED

3


7/1

Alternator/Trailer

88


73


56.8


67.2


59.7




4

MADIBA

4


7/2

Alternator/Trailer

93


80


50.6


73.2


67.7




6

SAVAGE WARRIOR

6


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


69


27.5


41.7


34.7




1

GEAUX DANGEROUS

1


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

50


50


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

Prairie Meadows - Race 10

Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Min) Superfecta (.10 Min) / Daily Double



Optional Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $31,500 • Post: 10:02


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR IOWA BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RANSOMED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Track Master Power Rating. TONI ANN'S MIRACLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MADISON WAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

RANSOMED

9/5


5/1




5

TONI ANN'S MIRACLE

3/1


5/1




6

MADISON WAY

8/1


5/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

ELIZABETH RULES

1


3/1

Front-runner

74


77


82.4


64.4


53.9




5

TONI ANN'S MIRACLE

5


3/1

Alternator/Front-runner

84


85


64.2


79.8


73.8




6

MADISON WAY

6


8/1

Stalker

92


86


71.2


78.2


74.2




4

RANSOMED

4


9/5

Stalker

94


80


67.2


80.2


75.7




3

EURO ME

3


10/1

Alternator/Stalker

85


81


53.4


68.2


59.7




2

STAYTHIRSTYMYAMIGO

2


5/1

Alternator/Non-contender

84


87


65.8


72.6


64.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Ellis Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:40pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 SHUSH (ML=6/1)
#7 TUFF BIRD (ML=9/2)


SHUSH - I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter trip. This jockey and handler's horses have been generating a beneficial return on investment. The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Colebrook. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. TUFF BIRD - Ran last out against a better group of horses at Churchill Downs. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Leparoux, and this one could bound home the winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 CURTAIN BLUFF (ML=5/2), #4 REARRANGE (ML=5/2), #3 SENSE YOU LEFT (ML=3/1),

CURTAIN BLUFF - Don't figure that this runner has what it takes to be victorious this time around. REARRANGE - This horse will most likely be near the rear of the pack as this bunch crosses the wire. SENSE YOU LEFT - This pony ran a run-of-the-mill rating in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #6 SHUSH to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga



07/17/20, SAR, Race 9, 5.46 ET
07/17/20,SAR,9,7F [Dirt] 1:20:02 STAKES. Shine Again Stakes. Purse $85,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A SWEEPSTAKE IN 2020 OTHER THAN STATE-BRED. By subscription of $100 each which should accompany the nomination; $200 to pass the entry box and an additional $200 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,000 along with the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 55% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3%divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. Weight 124 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstake in 2019 allowed 2 lbs.; of two races other than maiden, claiming, starter or State-Bred allowance in 2020 allowed 4 lbs.; of such a race in 2020 allowed 6 lbs. Starters to be named at the closing time of entries. A presentation will be made to the winning owner (overnight race scratch rules will apply).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
2
Risky Mandate
9/2
Cohen D
Amoss Thomas M.
SC
36.36
1.68/$1


098.9379
6
Joy Epifora (ARG)
12-1
Ortiz J L
Correas. IV Ignacio
W
44.64
1.68/$1


098.5684
5
Indian Pride
6/5
Castellano J
Brown Chad C.
TE
36.36
1.68/$1


098.5294
9
Blamed
7/2
Ortiz. Jr. I
Mott William I.
JL
34.02
1.25/$1


096.9052
3
Positive Spirit
12-1
Gaffalione T
Stidham Michael


35.42
1.62/$1


095.7896
7
Honor Way
20-1
Franco M
Baker Charlton
F
36.36
1.68/$1


095.3784
4
Bella Ciao
30-1
Lezcano J
Sano Antonio


35.42
1.62/$1


095.0923
10
Please Flatter Me
8-1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.


36.36
1.68/$1


094.6099
8
Slimey
30-1
Rosario J
Cannizzo David A.


36.36
1.68/$1


094.3861
1
Estilo Femenino
20-1
Alvarado J
Asmussen Steven M.


35.42
1.62/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.55, ROI 1.00/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Stronach 5

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $47000 Class Rating: 91

FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 HEIR BALL 5/2




# 8 WAR STAR 9/2




# 11 CAT'S ASTRAY 7/2




My pick for this event is HEIR BALL. This mare has been consistently running well in her latest outings. Has been running very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Jaramillo has a win percent of 23 over the last 30 days. WAR STAR - The Equibase speed fig of 95 from her last affair looks competitive in here. Solid average speed figures in turf sprint races make this horse a key contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8400 Class Rating: 60

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 GREAT MASTER 5/2




# 6 PAINT ME BAD 3/1




# 1 CHARROUX 2/1




My choice in here is GREAT MASTER. Has run well when travelling a short race. He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most competitive in this group. The speed figure of 54 from his last affair looks very strong in here. PAINT ME BAD - With a sound 57 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase speed figs which have been respectable - 54 avg - of late. CHARROUX - Alexander has well above average profits at this distance/surface. Recent numbers for the jockey - 27 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 9:02pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 COMPLETE SURPRISE (ML=3/1)
#7 PEARLY QUEEN (ML=4/1)


COMPLETE SURPRISE - This filly should be in fine form, this far into her form cycle. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class to make her presence felt. That 64 fig this filly earned in her last race tells me she's a chief player this time around. PEARLY QUEEN - Bocachica's agent must like anytime Runco gives them a mount; winning percentage together is tremendous. This conditioner (Runco) has a terrific win percent with first time starters. Gets help from Runco with the addition of Lasix. Take this advice. When you've got a first time starter, take a look at dam stats as much as sire stats. This one's dam has been wonderful winning at a 50 pct clip. The 'x-factor' at work here is that this filly has been working over this track getting ready for her first start.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LIAM'S LOOKOUT (ML=5/2), #9 RAISON D'ETAT GIRL (ML=5/1), #1 RUMOURIST (ML=8/1),

LIAM'S LOOKOUT - This favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning drills. Didn't finish in the money on Mar 25th at Gulfstream Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. RAISON D'ETAT GIRL - The Brain tells me to stay away from horses in short distance races that haven't hit the board in short distance affairs lately. RUMOURIST - Finished eighth last time. Would have to improve to be in the money today. The Brain always tells me to keep away from ponies in sprint events that haven't finished in the money in sprint races lately.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 COMPLETE SURPRISE is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



07/17/20, MTH, Race 1, 5.00 ET
07/17/20,MTH,1,1M [Dirt] 1:33:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
6
Dohko
5-1
Castillo I
Alcala Cesar
SL
80.00
3.02/$1


098.9966
7
Wendigo
6-1
Hernandez C J
Ortega Leopoldo M.
FWC
80.00
3.02/$1


098.7031
2
Big City Ralph
3-1
Lopez P
Delgado Jose H.
J
80.00
3.02/$1


098.4688
8
Political
5/2
Carrasco V R
Miceli Michael
E
80.00
3.02/$1


098.1656
1
Rose for a Saint
8-1
Garcia W A
Einhorn Skip


80.00
3.02/$1


098.1625
9
Intuitive
9/2
Diaz. Jr. H R
Sacco Gregory D.
T
80.00
3.02/$1


095.5657
3
Caleb the Boss
20-1
Mejia T B
Simmonds Michael A.


80.00
3.02/$1


095.1189
4
Dialed in Gold
8-1
DeCarlo C P
Mejia Jaime


80.00
3.02/$1


094.7816
5
Right of Way
30-1
Panaijo J
Cash Russell J.


80.00
3.02/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.92/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE HORSE RACING WINNER 7/17/20
RACE #3 from LAUREL PARK
POST TIME: 2:15 PM EST
Free Pick: #4 Honor Run 7/2 Odds to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks & Soccer 7/17

Fri Jul 17, 2020
Saratoga gets it going today and I have two from there plus a soccer pick. Goodluck.

100* Over 2.5 West Ham/Watford

Saratoga Race 2
#10 Brunate $10 wps
$2 exacta box 10-1-11

Saratoga Race 9
#10 Please Flatter Me $10 wps
$2 exacta box 10-5-9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
Sports Services
Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 2: #2 to WIN


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 7: #4 to WIN


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Charles Town Race 1: #6 to WIN


4.
Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 6: #7 to WIN


5.
Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 8: #5 to WIN


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 3: #5 to WIN


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 1: #4 to WIN


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 5: #7 to WIN


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
HORSES – Delta Downs Race 7: #5 to WIN


10.
William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
HORSES – Woodbine Race 7: #8 to WIN


11.
Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
HORSES – Woodbine Race 3: #5 to WIN


12.
Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
HORSES – Woodbine Race 6: #2 to WIN


13.
SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 5: #7 to WIN


14.
East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 7: #3 to WIN


15.
Tony Campone (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/tony-campone/)
HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 3: #4 to WIN


16.
Chicago Sports Group (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/chicago-sports-group/)
HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 6: #3 to WIN


17.
Hollywood Sportsline (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/hollywood-sportsline/)
HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 7: #6 to WIN


18.
VIP Action (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vip-action-sports/)
HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 3: #7 to WIN


19.
South Beach Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/south-beach-sports/)
HORSES – Saratoga Race 5: #5 to WIN


20.
Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Saratoga Race 7: #3 to WIN


21.
NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
HORSES – Saratoga Race 1: #3 to WIN


22.
Fred Callahan (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/fred-callahan/)
HORSES – Saratoga Race 8: #1 to WIN


23.
Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 3: #7 to WIN


24.
Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 5: #14 to WIN


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 6: #4 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 7/17/20 July 17, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Friday, July 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Value Engineering

Forecast: The opener is a mini-marathon allowance event over a grass course labeled “good” that looks made to order for Value Engineering. The son of Lemon Drop Kid colt is improving with racing and should be well-suited by this 11-furlong trip. Never off the board in five starts and fresh from a game win in a productive entry-level event at Belmont Park, the C. Brown-trained colt has enough tactical speed to be anywhere J. Castellano wants him to be, perhaps even on the front end of no other pace materializes. Considering his connections, his rising speed figures and his potential, the lightly-raced 4-year-old is worth a play in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Slew’s Early Light

Forecast: Dawn’s Early Light is a seven-race maiden and already a three-time beaten favorite so he’s hard to trust, but at this maiden $25,000 level the Bayern colt really should be able to earn his diploma. The D. Gargan-trained colt returns to the main track and projects to be close up throughout and possibly on the front end from his rail post in this extended sprint affair that is noticeably lacking in early speed. Based purely on speed figures, he’s simply faster than his weak foes, so you can either take the short price, use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-The Rock Says

Forecast: The Rock Says is a first off the $50,000 claim by R. Diodoro (31% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle) so improvement is likely, if not certain. The son of Uncle Mo adds blinkers after failing at 50 cents on the dollar at Churchill Downs last month but a sloppy surface may have given him a legitimate excuse, and the fact that his new connections choose to protect him is a sign that they like the merchandise. Strong on numbers, in the frame in eight of nine career starts, and showing a good race last year over this track and distance, the four-year-old gelding seems pretty solid as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Customerexperience; 4-Pick Up the Fone; 5-Stunning Munnings

Forecast: Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $25,000 sprint six furlongs in difficult affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Customerexperience, fresh from a game win with a career-top speed figure at Gulfstream Park, moves up from the $16,000 ranks but has numbers that make her a strong fit in this league. The S. Joseph, Jr.-trained filly attracts J. Rosario and looks very live, though as a late-running sprinter from the rail she’s going to need help up front and good racing luck. Pick Up the Fone is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. Life-and-death to beat $20,000 field in Florida last time out, the T. Pletcher-trained filly moves up a level in a sign of confidence but isn’t particular strong in the speed figure department and will be tested, for sure, in the final furlong. Stunning Munnings, in the money in her last pair and likely to find herself in a pace-prompting position just outside Pick up the Fone, should have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. However, her only victory came in gate-to-wire fashion and that scenario doesn’t seem likely today. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three with Customerexperience the clear top pick; feel free to spread deeper if you find the need.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Open Lengths; 7-Scuttlebuzz; 10-Sandro the Great

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at a mile and one-eighth. Tread lightly, for sure. Scuttlebuzz missed by a neck in a turf sprint last month and today stretches out around two-turns for the first time in this state-bred maiden special weight affair. His main track form isn’t too bad and if he’s ever going to handle a distance of ground it will be in his first try, so we’ll put him on top while also including Open Lengths, a $225,000 Keeneland yearling and an intriguing first time starter from a barn that has very strong stats (22% with a flat-bet profit) with debut runners. The work tab doesn’t jump off the page, but we suspect this son of Lea has at least some ability. Also toss in Sandro the Great, an Empire Maker colt with winning connections (C. Clement/J. Rosario) who should have no trouble handling the track and trip.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Mission Wrapitup; 8-Big Thicket

Forecast: Big Thicket is comfortably drawn outside and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip in this seven furlong affair for first-level New York-bred sprinters. The son of Union Rags was waiver-protected when winning a $25,000 seller with a career-top speed figure two runs back and then overcame some traffic trouble to finish an excellent second to odds-on Tale of the Union in a hot race just a few days ago. The quick-turnaround is always of some concern, but less so though when it’s a R. Rodriguez-trained runner. I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and knows him well Mission Wrapitup, in his second off the layoff for C. Brown and exiting a state-bred stakes race, switches to J. Castellano and should have some improvement in him. However, he’ll need a significant boost in the speed figure department to win. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics, with the main push going to Big Thicket.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Passing Out; 4-Clara Peeters

Forecast: This year’s edition of the De La Rose Stakes is a listed affair but sure looks on paper to be at least of Grade 3 quality. Clara Peeters moves into stakes competition following a very impressive and visually pleasing seven furlong allowance win at Belmont Park last month, and while the step up in class surely will test her, the English-bred filly could easily be up to the task. Today’s added distance won’t be an issue at all, and with J. Castellano riding her back the B. Cox-trained import certainly will get the patient ride she requires. Passing Out was in too tough when third behind Rushing Fall in the Beaugay S.-G3 last time out and won’t have to face anybody that good today. The daughter of Orb should draft into a comfortable stalking position and with continued improvement should have every chance. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Clara Peeters on top.
r*
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Lady Lawyer

Forecast: Lady Lawyer has much in her favor in this second-level abbreviated turf sprint for fillies and mares. Beaten a half-length in a similar type of race over seven furlongs last month at Belmont Park, the daughter of Blame shows a steady, healthy series of works since for C. Brown, whose stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle are off the charts. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have her on or near the lead throughout, so with any kind of forward move she should be able to shrug off whatever pace pressure she gets and handle this assignment as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Risky Mandate 5-Indian Pride

Forecast: Indian Pride is listed at 6/5 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the listed Shine Again S. and there’s no question she’s the likely choice and one to beat. The daughter of Proud Citizen returned off an eight month layoff to beat a first-level allowance field at Belmont Park but was pretty much straight as a string to do so, and the runner-up came back to disappoint as a short priced favorite, so we’re wondering how strong of a race it really was. Of course, the C. Brown-trained filly has every right to move forward off that race and if she does she may never look back. That said, we’re going to try a gamble with Risky Mandate, a closing second with after a disastrous start from the rail in her recent comeback at Churchill Downs. A winner over this main track last year and then third in the Prioress S.-G2, the T. Amoss-trained filly has the proper style for seven furlongs and speed figures that make her a major threat. However, with the scratching off Estilo Femenino she’ll have to leave from the rail again, and this time she’d better break. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, but since ‘Mandate will be the better price of the two we’ll have extra tickets keying her on top.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 PT. Grade: C
Use: 5-Diannesimpazible; 6-Operative

Forecast: Maiden claiming $40,000 New York-bred older horses meet at the shortened distance of seven furlongs on the main track, a distance and surface switch dictated by overnight rains. Diannesimpazible - with okay prior dirt form - returned off a layoff in a grass affair and ran okay from a poor draw, winding up fifth while closing with some interest into an unfavorable race flow last month, and with any kind of forward move the D. Donk-trained gelding may be capable of producing the last run I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and should be able to secure a mid-pack, ground-saving position and have every chance when it matters. Operative, the “other” Donk entrant, shows up in a seller for the first time, is a fit on numbers and could be a threat if he can handle dirt. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence in a race that probably is best left alone.
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