Service Plays Saturday 7/18/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

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http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran Jul 18 '20, 11:00 PM in 2d
Fighting | Jack Hermansson vs Kelvin Gastelum
Play on: Kelvin Gastelum -115 at pinnacle

Ricky's 1* play on Gastelum.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this fight the recent history of these two fighters is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- Gastelum is coming off consecutive losses by decision.
- Gastelum has a far superior resume when it comes to quality of opponent.
- Hermannsson is coming off a loss to a 36 year old journeyman fighter.
The verdict: look for Gastelum to get the "W".

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1/ST Race of the Week: United Nations from Monmouth July 16, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 1 $300,000 UNITED NATIONS STAKES AT MONMOUTH PARK
Saturday, July 18, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Summer's biggest racing day on the Jersey Shore comes Saturday with the tradition-rich Haskell Invitational. That headlines a 14-race program that includes 6 stakes races and the co-featured Grade 1 United Nations Stakes for the older turf set. The Haskell appears to be a 2-horse race, while the UN could be the much more lucrative betting chance. And why not? Favorites have lost every United Nations edition since champion English Channel scored here in 2007. The last 3 winners have been 14-1, 23-1 and 10-1 shots (and remarkably included Mike Maker and Chad Brown trainees among those). This mile and three-eighths turf test will be Race 11, immediately leading into the Haskell.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner ARKLOW has a decided class edge on this field as he's competed at the highest levels. STANDARD DEVIATION is Grade 1-placed, while CURRENT is a Grade 3 winner with a Grade 2 placing on his resume. On pure class, it's hard to argue against ARKLOW.

Pace:
It should be a very slow go up front. PARET led wire-to-wire last out and probably goes to the front again. O DIONYSUS has the most interest in pressing him unless another rider changes tactics with these runners' past form. The offspring of Bodemeister have taken to the Monmouth turf well over the years, so expect O DIONYSUS to be interested. Still, a deep, deep closer will have his work cut out for him.

Our Eyes:
ARKLOW ran just 6 days ago in the mile and one-half Grade 2 Elkhorn, so this is an obviously very curious return spot. I typically like when a successful trainer runs a horse back on short rest who comes off a non-effort. It's almost like making your star athlete run laps in practice for having an off game. "Get back to work!" But this 6-year-old has never run back shorter than 16 days - between his 2018 Elkhorn second and his fourth-place solid try in the Breeders' Cup Turf. But he was in career form that autumn. The barn has had some success on a week or less break with lower-level horses, but has never tried it with a stakes performer like this. He's never run at Monmouth to date, so ARKLOW will be a gutsy toss as the key player in my wagers.

Four runners re-match from Belmont's $80,000 Tiller Stakes, a token overnight stakes June 4 that came up more on the line of a Grade 3 race. PARET wired that test over the same mile and three-eighths distance as the UN. He was 38-1 that day, and you won't get such a big price this time. But the public is stubborn in pari-mutuel betting and rarely admits fault so quickly. He'll be a more-than-fair price and if you want to reinvest in this Australian export, anything around 15-1 with a pace advantage like this would be attractive. His only bid at Monmouth was a better-than-looks third in a turf sprint that didn't warm up his stamina.

Others from the Tiller include Todd Pletcher's CURRENT, fifth from a wide draw at Belmont; STANDARD DEVIATION, a disappointing sixth that day for Graham Motion; and CORELLI, who rallied decently, though seventh, after a terrible start, spotting the field several lengths. Any of this quartet makes a reasonable case, especially since Motion is a 2-time UN winner (Better Talk Now '05, Main Sequence '14) and Pletcher has 4 UN trophies (Balto Star '03, English Channel '06 and '07, Turbo Compressor '12). STANDARD DEVIATION is 2-for-2 at Monmouth, easily besting CURRENT in last year's local Jersey Derby.

Mike Maker, who won this race with Bigger Picture in 2017, sends out the uncoupled pair of MUGGSAMATIC and AQUAPHOBIA. The former won his first try for Maker after a transfer from the suspended Jason Servis; the latter is a vintage Maker veteran, high-dollar claim ($62,500 in January) who makes a big stakes ascension. We've seen it so many times with this barn. AQUAPHOBIA has lit the superfecta in all 4 starts since the change of venue, including a pair of Grade 2 bids. Both have run well over the Monmouth turf course.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: AQUAPHOBIA hasn't missed a superfecta for Maker and gets all-time Monmouth leading jockey Joe Bravo. This distance is the question, but a slower pace keeps him in the game.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: It's CORELLI. He was 33-1 vs. many of these last time, but now gets Lasix, blinkers and note the Jonathan Thomas-Daniel Centeno tandem is a rousing 38%-winning combination and 65% in the exacta from 40 starts. And, remember, this has been a longshot's race.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $40 win CORELLI. $10 exacta key-box CORELLI with AQUAPHOBIA, PARET and ARKLOW ($60).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Post Looms Threat to Authentic in Haskell July 15, 2020 | By Jon White
Coming off his first defeat when second in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on June 6, Authentic seeks to regain his winning ways in Saturday’s Grade I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. The 1 1/8-mile affair has attracted a field of seven.

Monmouth oddsmaker Brad Thomas has installed Authentic as the Haskell morning-line favorite at 4-5. Dr Post is the 5-2 second choice. Ny Traffic is 7-2. The others are 15-1 or higher.

When it came to the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, I went with my gut and picked Honor A.P. to win. I did that even though Honor A.P. had finished second to Authentic in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 7.

I was glad that I went with my gut. Honor A.P. won the Santa Anita Derby by 2 1/4 lengths at 2-1. Authentic finished second as the 1-2 favorite.

I might be sorry this time, but I am going with my gut again by picking Dr Post to win the Haskell.

Here are my Haskell selections:

1. Dr Post
2. Authentic
3. Ny Traffic
4. Jesus’ Team

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Authentic. Because I’m not picking Baffert to win Saturday’s Haskell, I can’t blame you for thinking that I should be fitted for one of those jackets with the sleeves in the back. After all, Baffert has won the Haskell a record eight times.

Baffert’s Haskell winners are listed below:

2015 American Pharoah
2014 Bayern
2012 Paynter
2011 Coil
2010 Lookin At Lucky
2005 Roman Ruler
2002 War Emblem
2001 Point Given

Even though Baffert has won the Haskell eight times, it’s not the stakes race that he has dominated the most.

No trainer has dominated any of this country’s current Grade I races to such an extent as Baffert with his 14 Del Mar Futurity wins.

According to my research, fellow Hall of Famers D. Wayne Lukas and Whittingham are the two trainers closest to Baffert in terms of dominating any of this country’s current Grade I races.

Lukas has won both the Grade I Del Mar Debutante and Grade I Chandelier Stakes (formerly Oak Leaf Stakes) at Santa Anita nine times. Whittingham won the Santa Anita Handicap nine times.

If I am not going with Baffert to win Saturday’s Haskell, Todd Pletcher -- who undoubtedly will be joining Baffert in the Hall of Fame next year -- would seem a good way to go. Pletcher has won the Haskell three times.

Pletcher’s Haskell winners are listed below:

2013 Verrazano
2007 Any Given Saturday
2006 Bluegrass Cat

Authentic, who has won three of four career starts, most likely will go immediately to the front Saturday. It appears to me that he has a very good chance to be able to set an uncontested early pace. If that does happen, it will be a tall order for anyone to catch him.

Then why in the heck am I picking Dr Post to win?

Well, as I said, I just have a gut feeling that Dr Post can do it. I’m also inclined to go ahead and go with Dr Post to win the race because he definitely will be a better price in the betting than Authentic.

As for Authentic, another plus is the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt will be ridden by Hall of Famer Mike Smith. It’s always a good thing to have Smith as your jockey in a lucrative race like the $1 million Haskell. They don’t call him “Big Money Mike Smith” for nothing.

Smith has two Haskell wins to his credit -- Holy Bull in 1994 and Coronado’s Quest in 1998.

But I have no problem whatsoever with Dr Post’s pilot, Joe Bravo. Though it’s true that his only Haskell victory came aboard Lion Heart in 2004, Bravo has won a zillion races at Monmouth through the years. They don’t call him “Jersey Joe Bravo” for nothing.

I was impressed with Dr Post’s 2020 debut in which he recorded a 96 Beyer Speed Figure when won a seven-furlong maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Park on March 29.

I also was impressed when Dr Post won the 1 1/16-mile Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream on April 25. His Beyer in the Unbridled dropped to an 86, but I liked the way the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt got the job done despite not having the best of trips.

In Dr. Post’s most recent appearance under silks, he finished second at 7-1 behind odds-on favorite Tiz the Law in the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on June 20. I thought that was a fine effort on the part of Dr Post inasmuch as it was just his fourth career start.

While I have much respect for Authentic, I have a gut feeling that we might not have seen the best from Dr Post yet. I think there is a possibility that Dr Post will go out there and run even better in the Haskell than he did in the Belmont.

Ny Traffic, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., could have a big say in the Haskell. He’s been knocking on the door in graded stakes races.

A New York-bred Cross Traffic colt, Ny Traffic finished third behind Modernist and Major Fed in a division of the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 15.

Ny Traffic then ran second in the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 21. Wells Bayou won that race.

Most recently, Ny Traffic finished second to Maxfield in the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 23.

ART COLLECTOR CONTINUES RISE WITH BLUE GRASS WIN

After winning last Saturday’s Grade II Blue Grass Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths, Art Collector rises to No. 3 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after being No. 9 last week.

Here is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:

1. Honor A.P.
2. Tiz the Law
3. Art Collector
4. Authentic
5. Dr Post
6. Uncle Chuck
7. Cezanne
8. Max Player
9. King Guillermo
10. Rushie

My Kentucky Derby rankings also appear weekly in the Friday edition of John Cherwa’s Los Angeles Times horse racing newsletter. Normally, the Top 10 for the newsletter is identical to my Top 10 for Xpressbet.com. But this might not be the case this week. That’s because someone from Thursday’s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park could make their way onto my Top 10 for Friday’s newsletter.

The Blue Grass was Art Collector’s first stakes victory. He’s now three for three in 2020. Prior to the Blue Grass, the Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt had won a pair of races at Churchill Downs this year by 2 3/4 and 6 1/2 lengths.

That 6 1/2-length win on June 13 in a 1 1/16-mile contest, accomplished in an excellent 1:41.35, was a giant clue that he might be one tough dude in the 96th running of the Blue Grass.

There was another sign that Art Collector could run a biggie in the Blue Grass. When he won on June 13, the runner-up was Shared Sense, who subsequently won last week’s Indiana Derby by three lengths at Indiana Grand.

Swiss Skydiver, a filly, was sent off as the slight $2.20 to $1 favorite in the Blue Grass. Art Collector was a close $2.30 to $1 second choice.

On the Blue Grass morning line, Swiss Skydiver was the 3-1 favorite, while Art Collector and Rushie were the co-second choices at 5-1. (Art Collector originally had been mistakenly listed at 6-1 on the morning line by Keeneland communications.)

Thirteen broke from the gate in the Blue Grass. Swiss Skydiver and Art Collector were prominent from the outset.

Swiss Skydiver maintained a slight advantage as she made her way around the far turn, while Art Collector was breathing down her neck. Rushie moved up to threaten on the far turn, but then lacked the necessary additional punch in the lane.

From the top of the stretch to the vicinity of the sixteenth pole, Swiss Skydiver and Art Collector were locked in a fierce head-and-head battle for the lead while well clear of the others. Art Collector then asserted his superiority in the final sixteenth to draw clear.

Though Swiss Skydiver could not keep up with Art Collector in the last sixteenth, the filly continued on well enough to finish well clear of the others. Rushie, racing wide throughout at 7-1, ended up third, 4 3/4 lengths behind Swiss Skydiver.

While Swiss Skydiver was thwarted in her bid to make history by becoming the first filly to win the Blue Grass since it was inaugurated in 1911, she certainly gave it an admirable try. The only other filly to have run in the Blue Grass was Hattie Sue, who finished fifth in 1944.

UNCLE CHUCK’S STRIDE IMPRESSES BAFFERT

Highly regarded Uncle Chuck, No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, had a splendid workout Monday at Del Mar. The Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt, undefeated in two starts, registered a four-length victory in the Grade III Los Alamitos Derby on July 4.

Uncle Chuck probably will make his next start in Saratoga’s Grade I Runhappy Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles on Aug. 8, according to Baffert.

Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A.P., No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, is headed to Del Mar’s Shared Belief Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Aug. 1. Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law, No. 2 on my Top 10, is scheduled to make his next start in the Travers.

Concerning Uncle Chuck’s drill earlier this week, Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote that the colt “glided around the Del Mar main track Monday morning with an effortless half-mile in :47.60, after which he galloped out an additional furlong. The work was faster than planned, but not because he was being asked.”

Baffert was especially impressed with Uncle Chuck’s long stride in Monday’s workout.

“He looked like Arrogate, didn’t he?” Baffert was quoted as saying to Privman. “He jumps a long ways. Arrogate was like that. He’s got that stride. And he’s fast.”

Arrogate had won three of four career starts before making his stakes debut in the 2016 Travers. In what I ranked as the top 2016 performance by a Thoroughbred in the United States, Arrogate won the Travers by 13 1/2 lengths in 1:59.36 to obliterate Saratoga’s track record for 1 1/4 miles.

HORSE OF THE YEAR CHASE LOOKS WIDE OPEN

Seven horses received first-place votes in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. That indicates that the 2020 Horse of the Year title is up for grabs at this point. The seven horses to receive first-place votes in this week’s poll are Midnight Bisou, Tom’s d’Etat, Vekoma, Monomoy Girl, Tiz the Law, Code of Honor and Maximum Security.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 369 Midnight Bisou (22)
2. 334 Tom’s d’Etat (9)
3. 294 Vekoma (2)
4. 142 Monomoy Girl (1)
5. 134 Zulu Alpha
6. 133 Mucho Gusto
7. 130 By My Standards
8. 118 Tiz the Law (2)
9. 98 Code of Honor (1)
10. 95 Maximum Security (3)

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

After ranking 28th last week, Art Collector made a giant leap all the way up to No. 4 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

The Top 10 this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 399 Tiz the Law (39)
2. 357 Honor A.P. (1)
3. 244 Authentic
4. 242 Art Collector
5. 180 Dr Post
6. 148 King Guillermo
7. 118 Uncle Chuck
8. 110 Swiss Skydiver
9. 108 Gamine
10. 60 Max Player

WAR OF WILL, RUSHING FALL JOIN ELITE CLUBS

When War of Will took the Maker’s Mark Mile by a nose at odds of 5-1 on the grass last Friday at Keeneland, he became a Grade I winner on turf and on dirt. He captured the Grade I Preakness Stakes on the dirt at Pimlico in 2019.

War of Will is just the third horse to win a Triple Crown event on dirt and a Grade I grass race. The other two were two-time Horse of the Year Secretariat and fellow two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome.

In War of Will’s only previous 2020 start, he finished fifth in Santa Anita’s Grade I Shoemaker Mile on May 25, then was disqualified and placed sixth for causing interference.

Mark Casse (elected to this country’s Hall of Fame this year) trains War of Will.

Last Saturday at Keeneland, Rushing Fall proved a punctual 4-5 favorite in the Grade I Jenny Wiley Stakes on the grass. The Kentucky-bred More Than Ready filly prevailed by three-quarters of a length for trainer Chad Brown.

Since races in this country were first graded in 1973, Rushing Fall is only the third Thoroughbred to race exclusively in this country and win a Grade I event at 2, 3, 4 and 5. The other two were Beholder and Lady Eli.

McKinzie had a chance to also become a Grade I winner at 2, 3, 4 and 5 when he competed in the Grade I Met Mile on July 4. But he somehow managed to lose both a front and hind shoe during the race and finished fifth.

SPEECH’S 97 BEYER VALIDATED

I will, from time to time, point out when I beleive a Beyer Speed Figure is off, such as was the case with a number of American Pharoah’s races. But I’ve also stated many times that I think Beyer Speed Figures are a useful tool for horseplayers. I would not refer to them as often as I do if I felt otherwise.

When Speech finished second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park on May 2 for trainer Michael McCarthy, she recorded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. She lost that race by a neck to the Baffert-trained Gamine, who was credited with a 98 Beyer.

Prior to that 97 Beyer by Speech, her top figure had been an 86. Speech followed her 97 Beyer by recording an 88 when she finished second, four lengths behind Swiss Skydiver, in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Anita Oaks on June 6.

When Speech dropped from a 97 to an 88 Beyer, I questioned the validity of the 97. I thought the 97 might be out of whack.

But after Speech won Keeneland’s Grade I Ashland Stakes by three lengths at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday, I now believe that 97 Beyer is legit because Speech even exceeded that figure by posting a 101 Beyer in the Ashland.

What I think probably happened is Speech “bounced,” or regressed, when she dropped to an 88 Beyer in the Santa Anita Oaks from her 97 at Oaklawn. Considering how hard Speech ran to nearly beat Gamine at Oaklawn, this makes perfect sense.

Meanwhile, as an indication of what a fantastic filly Gamine is, while Speech regressed from her 97 Beyer at Oaklawn to an 88 in her next race, Gamine went the other way in a big way. Gamine went from her 98 Beyer at Oaklawn to a monstrous 110 when she won Belmont’s Grade I Acorn Stakes by 18 3/4 lengths at one mile on July 20.

I ranked Gamine’s Acorn as the best performance by a Thoroughbred in the United States during the first half of 2020.

Baffert has said Gamine’s Acorn is probably the best race a filly or mare has ever run for him.

FORMER JOCKEY KEN CHURCH PASSES AWAY

Many in the Southern California racing community, including yours truly, were saddened by the news from Del Mar that former jockey Ken Church died Monday at a hospital in Reno, Nev. He was 90.

Del Mar had received word of Church’s death from his daughter, Debbie Anderson.

Anderson said that her father had suffered a case of pneumonia a week ago at the retirement home where he lived in Reno and was moved to a local hospital. The cause of death was listed as COVID-19.

Born in Windsor, Ontario, on March 24, 1930, Church first came to the track at Woodbine as a teenager, then began riding in the U.S. a short time later. According to the Daily Racing Form obituary written by Privman, Church rode his first winner in Detroit in 1947.

Church rode more than 2,000 winners from over 14,000 mounts. He won titles at Arlington Park, Churchill Downs, Garden State Park, Keeneland and Washington Park. Church also rode in Florida and Louisiana before coming to California.

In 1964, Church won the Santa Anita Handicap aboard Mr. Consistency, who was sent away at 5-1 in the field of 18. It was a marvelous ride on the part of Church. As far back early as 14th, Church and Mr. Consistency made a bold move to take the lead in upper stretch. Mr. Consistency had a half-length advantage with an eighth of a mile to go. Did Church move too soon? Nope. Mr. Consistency stayed in front throughout the final furlong to win by three-quarters of a length.

When Church talked about Viking Spirit, a twinkle typically would come to his eye. In 1965, Church won both the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct and Bing Crosby Handicap at Del Mar on Viking Spirit.

After Church retired as a jockey in 1967, he went to work in the publicity departments at Del Mar, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita. He was principally involved in radio and television at those tracks.

In the 1970s, Church participated in the popular Rocking Chair Derby at Del Mar for retired jockeys. He won it in 1974.

During the time I was employed by the Daily Racing Form, I worked the Del Mar meetings from 1982 to 1993, first as a writer/columnist, then as a chart-caller. Church was at Del Mar during those years after leaving Hollywood Park and Santa Anita to reduce his workload.

Of the hundreds of people I’ve crossed paths with in racing since I first was hired by the DRF in 1974, none have been nicer than Ken Church.

Whenever I worked at Longacres in the 1970s when I was with the DRF, I participated in the “media show parlay.” Ten members of the media each put up $2 every Sunday. Each person would pick a horse for the $20 show parlay. But once a horse had been picked in a race, no one else could make a pick in that race. A random draw each week determined the selection order. The most important thing was not to be the person to blow the parlay. That’s because the person who blew the parlay inevitably would get much grief from everyone else. It was a blast.

In the press box at Del Mar in the 1980s, I copied the “media show parlay” concept from Longacres. We had five participants every Sunday, four DRF employees and Church. Because there were only five of us, we each put up $4. Again, it was a lot of fun. I can tell you that Church absolutely loved being involved in that weekly show parlay.

I can honestly say that Ken Church was one of my favorite things about being in the Del Mar press box during all those years I worked there in the 1980s and early 1990s.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Haskell Post Position Draw Rapid Reaction

July 15, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

San Felipe winner and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic drew post 2 of 7 for Saturday’s Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. The 4-5 morning line favorite looks to give trainer Bob Baffert a record-padding ninth victory in the Jersey Shore’s most famous race. First race post time is set for noon ET with the featured Haskell slated for approximately 5:45 pm ET as Race 12 of 14.

Authentic has won 3 of 4 starts, battling on the front end in each of those outings. The Monmouth track traditionally plays fast and toward speed on Haskell Day, so expect jockey Mike Smith to have him on the engine with this inside draw. Smith won the Haskell in the 1990s with horses like Holy Bull and Coronado’s Quest.

The other predominant early speed in the race likely comes from widest-drawn NY Traffic, who very well could pressure the outside flank of Authentic throughout early and middle stages of this 1-1/8 miles. Jockey Paco Lopez is a past Monmouth riding champion and very aggressive early in races, so he will keep pressure on the favorite if NY Traffic breaks in his usual manner. Longshots Jesus’ Team, Ancient Warrior and Lebda also have exhibited early speed against lesser competition. Their presence could increase the tempo.

Rain-drawn Dr. Post benefits if the pace quickens. He exits a clear second in the Belmont Stakes and will be ridden by Monmouth’s all-time leading pilot Joe Bravo for the first time. Bravo scored the 2004 Haskell aboard Lion Heart. With major racing jurisdictions in New York and Maryland limiting the movement of jockeys due to COVID-19 concerns, several Monmouth-based riders are beneficiaries of mounts in this $1 million local showcase. Dr. Post’s trainer Todd Pletcher won this race in 2006, 2007 and 2013 with Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday and Verrazano – the first of which, like Dr. Post, was a Belmont Stakes runner-up.

On the wagering front, Monmouth will have a $400,000-guaranteed 50-cent Pick 4 (Races 9-12) and a $100,000-guaranteed 50-cent Pick 5 (Races 10-14).

Grade 1 $1 million Haskell Field
1. Dr. Post (Joe Bravo) 5-2
2. Authentic (Mike Smith) 4-5
3. Jesus’ Team (Nick Juarez) 15-1
4. Ancient Warrior (Trevor McCarthy) 20-1
5. Fame to Famous (Jose Ferrer) 30-1
6. Lebda (Alex Cintron) 20-1
7. NY Traffic (Paco Lopez) 7-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Haskell Stakes Workout Report

July 16, 2020
crews in California and Florida were able to track a pair of Saturday’s Haskell Stakes contender through their major morning preparations. Analyst Zoe Cadman provides her insights:

Authentic

Let’s face it; Bob Baffert knows how to win the Haskell, having won it a record 8 times (most recently in 2015 with American Pharaoh). The previously undefeated Authentic lost some of his sparkle when simply finishing second-best to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby. He will now get Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the irons Saturday, replacing Drayden Van Dyke (We have seen this ending before…). Mike’s last win in the Haskell was way back in 1994 aboard Holy Bull. But let's cut to the chase: Fitness is certainly not going to an issue for this lightly framed son of Into Mischief. He has been likened to a gazelle by his trainer. Since the Santa Anita Derby, he has worked 5 times, all solo drills. On June 28, he sped 6 furlongs in a rank fashion under Drayden in 1:11.60. The following week on July 4, he looked surprisingly much more relaxed under Juan Ochoa, working a mile in 1:39 flat. Breaking off that morning at the 6-furlong pole, Authentic was in a high gallop before being asked to finish up. Super work. He duly shipped to Del Mar and put in his final work July 11 under Ochoa again in :59.80, visually impressive finishing up nicely. Here is a colt who’s fit and ready and will be the speed of the speed. If the Haskell was a mile in distance, I would say he’s a lock. But it’s not!

Ny Traffic

This son of Cross Traffic already has secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate for the first Saturday in September. He has a 70 Derby qualifying points moving forward. After missing an expected start in the Belmont Stakes due to a short sickness (and missed works), he appears to have rebounded nicely. His July 12 work in company with the overmatched Queen Nekia (8-for-26, Grade 3-placed) was good. Ny Traffic is beginning to really relax in his works, siting well off his workmate and inhaling her with ease in a very solid time (:59.60) at GP. One other thing I have noticed is this grey colt seems to have put on the weight he lost due to shipping and getting sick. This colt is on the move and not to be dismissed in a Haskell where the likely favorite, Authentic, is Goliath no more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

July 18 Cross Country P5 feat. Saratoga, Monmouth & Woodbine July 16, 2020
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will host an all-graded-stakes Cross Country Pick 5, featuring action from Saratoga Race Course, Monmouth Park and Woodbine Racetrack.

Live coverage of all the races in the sequence for the first Saturday of the Saratoga summer meet will be available with America's Day at the Races on FS1 and MSG+.

Monmouth, located in Oceanport, New Jersey, will host the first two legs of the sequence, starting with the Grade 3, $300,000 Monmouth Cup for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles in Race 10 at 4:40 p.m. Eastern. As part of the Grade 1 Haskell undercard, the Monmouth Cup will see Joevia, the 2019 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes third-place finisher, return to the track where he broke his maiden in July 2018 and also where he captured last year's Long Branch. The Gregg Sacco trainee will be part of a 10-horse field that includes Global Campaign, the 2019 Grade 3 Peter Pan winner at Belmont Park who also ran third in last year's Grade 2 Jim Dandy for trainer Stanley Hough.

The action will continue at Monmouth for the Grade 1, $300,000 United Nations in Race 11 at 5:12 p.m. The 1 3/8-mile turf route will see Current, the third-place finisher in the Grade 2 Kitten's Joy Pan American in March, as part of a nine-horse field. Current, the Todd Pletcher trainee who captured the 2018 Grade 3 Dixiana Bourbon, will go up against a field that includes Standard Deviation, who ran third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in November at Del Mar for conditioner Graham Motion. Standard Deviation ran second this year in Qatar in the Group 1 H.H. The Amir Trophy.

An international flavor will be added to the Cross Country Pick 5 when it shifts to Woodbine for the Grade 2, $175,000 Royal North in Race 9 at 5:28 p.m. Summer Sunday, one of two entrants for trainer Stuart Simon, will look to repeat as winner in defending her 2019 victory. Summer Sunday was named Canada's champion female sprinter in 2019 and made her 5-year-old debut by running third in the Grade 3 Whimsical on June 21 at Woodbine. Simon will also saddle Sister Peacock in the six-furlong Royal North.

The penultimate leg will be Monmouth's signature race, the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell in Race 12 at 5:48 p.m. A "Win and You're In" qualifier to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Keeneland, the Haskell will also offer qualifying points to September's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for the first time in history. The top four-finishers will receive 100-40-20-10 points towards the "Run for the Roses," with seven sophomores competing at 1 1/8 miles.

Authentic, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is the 4-5 morning-line favorite after starting his year with victories in the Grade 3 Sham and the Grade 2 San Felipe before running second in the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on June 6. He will face a talented seven-horse field that includes the Pletcher trained Dr Post, who ran second to Tiz the Law in last month's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. The rest of the field includes Jesus' Team, Ancient Warrior, Fame To Famous, Lebda and NY Traffic.

Historic Saratoga Race Course will conclude the sequence with the third Grade 1, offering the $350,000 Coaching Club American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies in Race 10 at 6:16 p.m. Offering 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, the Coaching Club American Oaks will see multiple graded-stakes winner Tonalist's Shape, who boasts six wins from seven starts, sent out by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Baffert will send out will send out Crystal Ball, who graduated last out by 6 1/2 lengths on June 14 in a 1 1/16-miles maiden at Santa Anita. Antoinette, Altaf, Velvet Crush and Paris Lights will also attempt the 1 1/2-mile test.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

Cross Country Pick 5 - Saturday, July 18:

Leg 1 - Monmouth, Race 10: Grade 3 Monmouth Park (4:40 p.m.)
Leg 2 - Monmouth, Race 11: Grade 1 United Nations (5:12 p.m.)
Leg 3 - Woodbine, Race 9: Grade 2 Royal North (5:28 p.m.)
Leg 4 - Monmouth, Race 12: Grade 1 Haskell (5:48 p.m.)
Leg 5 - Saratoga, Race 10: Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks (6:16 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Haskell is Multi-Leg Cornerstone

July 17, 2020 | By Johnny D

Del Mar racing is cancelled this weekend because of a rash of jockey COVID 19-positives and a spectator-less Saratoga season is underway. So, what else is new? It’s just another crazy weekend in a pandemic world. No worries. There are numerous opportunities nationwide for players to cash Saturday and Monmouth’s Haskell-day card looms as most attractive.

The $1 million Haskell Stakes has with a field of seven, including one or two runners that could make some noise in Louisville in September. Topping the roster is once-beaten Authentic from the Bob Baffert barn. He was second-best to Honor A. P. in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby last out. Dr. Post, trained by future Hall of Fame conditioner Todd Pletcher, also finished second in his last race--the truncated, mile and one-eighth Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes. Leading 3-year-old Tiz the Law snapped Dr. Post’s streak of two consecutive wins.

The Haskell will be the 12th race on a bulging 14-race card. It’s something of a gambling cornerstone as it serves as the final leg of a $400,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 (Races 9-12); as the third stanza of an all-stakes Pick 5 and as the second step in both an all-stakes Pick 4 and in the $1 123Racing Pick 6. Additionally, Xpressbet is offering a 1 million points split to all account holders who hit the Pick 4 on Races 9-12.

Here’s one man’s horse-by-horse look at the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes and assorted opinions on races 9 through 12 to hopefully enhance your Saturday afternoon entertainment.

Race 12--Haskell Stakes—Grade 1--$1 Million
For Three Year Olds--One Mile And One-Eighth

Trainer Bob Baffert has annually used the Haskell Stakes as his personal ATM. He’s won the race a record 8 times and usually not with a first-string 3-year-old in his barn. This year, with the Kentucky Derby delayed until September, Baffert is down to just a few potential Louisville starters. Authentic, favored in this race, is one of them. Dr. Post, from the Todd Pletcher barn, is the one with the best chance to upset and garner the 40-point lion’s share of Kentucky Derby starting gate points on the line. Second is worth 20 and third 10.

1. Dr. Post (Pletcher/Bravo) - 5/2

Here’s one horse that could benefit from a COVID-delayed Kentucky Derby. As late as April 25, he had merely won a maiden race second time out and the Unbridled Stakes, both at Gulfstream. A start in the Kentucky Derby would have been out of the question. Now, after a wide trip throughout to be second in the Belmont Stakes, Dr. Post is on the verge of developing into a bit of a Derby contender. To take that next step he’ll need to win the Haskell. He’s got a mid-pack, stalking style and the rail draw ought to allow him to save some ground, unlike what happened to him in the Belmont when posted 9 out of 10. ‘Jersey’ Joe Bravo takes over for Saratoga-restricted Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2. Authentic (Baffert/Smith) - 4/5

A hot horse since he broke maiden in November at Del Mar, Authentic has won the Gr. 3 Sham and Gr. 2 San Felipe Stakes, both at Santa Anita. He ran into a buzz saw last out in the form of Honor A. P. finishing second in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby for his only defeat. Authentic broke a bit slowly in that race but that wasn’t why he lost. Honor A. P. just ran better. Authentic has developed well and his Beyer Speed Figures haven’t taken a backward step in four starts. Look for trainer Baffert to request speed from this son of Into Mischief Saturday. Regular rider Drayden Van Dyke is on the COVID 19-recovery list in California, so Hall-of-Fame resident Mike Smith is scheduled to substitute, as of this writing. Authentic’s clearly the one to beat.

3. Jesus' Team (D'Angelo/Juarez) - 15/1

This colt doesn’t have a prayer! On the other hand, miracles happen. Just kidding. Sort of. Seriously, he’s up against it. He’s improved a great deal since a turf start at Gulfstream in late January, but one wonders how much more advancement he’ll make immediately. He’s had two wins in seven starts—one for maiden $32k and another for $25k non-winners of two. Both scores came at Gulfstream Park. He finished second last out in a $100k/optional claimer. These are tougher.

4. Ancient Warrior (Hollendorfer/McCarthy) - 20/1

This son of Constitution showed promise when he romped first out in a Del Mar maiden race in November. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to win since. He finished a close-up fourth at Oaklawn Park in February and has been third twice. He hasn’t been further than six and one-half furlongs, so this step up to a mile and one-eighth is uncharted territory. He’s got some speed, so he may give Authentic something to consider early but, when the real running starts, he ought to find things challenging.

5. Fame to Famous (McAllen/Ferrer) - 30/1

With just one win in nine starts, this son of Tapit seems up against it in here. He’s tried a couple of stakes races with no success. He’d be a huge surprise arriving in the winner’s circle.

6. Lebda (Gonzalez/Cintron) - 20/1

The Gr. 3 Ohio Derby proved too much for this guy last out. He showed speed early and faded to sixth of 13. His best work came at Laurel in February and March when he posted back-to-back stakes wins in the Miracle Wood and Private Terms. Those wins combined with 2-year-old tallies at Laurel and Delaware give Lebda the most wins in this field at four. This son of Raison d’Etat has speed but not much fight when challenged early. He’ll need to improve to threaten in here.

7. Ny Traffic (Joseph Jr./Lopez) - 7/2

This New York-bred son of Cross Traffic has been competitive in his last four races, since being shifted into the barn of Saffie Joseph. He romped by nearly seven in a Gulfstream mile and one-sixteenth $75k optional claiming race and then finished third, second and second in a trio of graded stakes races—Gr. 2 Risen Star, Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby and Gr. 3 Matt Winn—all within two lengths of the winners. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved in each of those outings. Look for Ny Traffic to race close to the early pace. He may not be quite as effective at a mile and one-eighth, but he’s proven as an in-the-money player in graded stakes.

Bottom Line: #2 Authentic is the one to beat in here. #1 Dr. Post and #7 Ny Traffic are the most likely upsetters, with a slight preference to the former. Since those horses probably will be ranked 1-2-3 in the wagering there’s not much to be gained by betting this race straight or in exotics. In multi-leg wagers we’d suggest using #2 Authentic strongest and #1 Dr. Post and #7 Ny Traffic slightly on small saver tickets only.

Race 9—Winstar Matchmaker—Grade 3--$150,000
Fillies and Mares—One Mile And One-Eighth Turf

This race features three runners from the powerful Chad Brown stable. Brown often finishes first, second and third in graded stakes races. It could happen again. There’s really no standout in here, so using all three Brown runners and a few others, hopefully, will get the job done and keep tickets alive.

#1 Valedictorian deserves mention because she’s 4 for 5 over the Monmouth turf course and 1 for 1 at the distance. Her last out was not poor, but she had some trouble at the start. She breaks from the rail and could have a pace advantage over this field. Still, she’s 6 and her best racing came last year.

#4 Varenka is worth a look. She often races wide and that doesn’t help, but she’s a Gr. 2 winner with three of 10 wins and two seconds and two thirds. If she and jockey Trevor McCarthy should work out a dream trip while saving ground, she’d have a chance.

#5 Beautiful Lover seems the best of the Chad Brown trio. She was a reasonable fourth in the Gr. 1 Gamely at Santa Anita last out. Before that she was second in the Gr. 2 Hillsborough at Tampa. She hasn’t won since May ’19 when she took the Boiling Springs right here at Monmouth. That win was the third of a trio of turf tallies. Gotta have her on multi-race tickets.

#6 Nay Lady Nay is a Chad Brown runner with three wins in six starts, including a maiden victory over the Monmouth turf. She won the Gr. 2 Mrs. Revere at Churchill in November and has one start this year—a two-length loss in the Gr. 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs. She’s one for one over the Monmouth turf and could be ready to step forward in this race. Must use.

#7 Tapit Today also hails from the Chad Brown stable and has been away since a well-beaten third in the Gr. 3 Suwannee River at Gulfstream. She’s a 5-year-old mare with two wins in two tries at Monmouth. She’s the least attractive of the Brown trio and the one most likely to be left out of multi-race tickets, but she could get a nice trip just behind probable pacesetter #1 Valedictorian

Use: #1, #4, #5, #6, #7

Race 10—Monmouth Cup—Grade 3--$300,000
For Three-Year-Olds and Upward—One Mile And One-Eighth

No free bingo square here. This is an interesting collection of second-level older stakes runners that mostly haven’t quite lived up to expectations. There are some fighters in here that like to win races, but they’ve done most of that winning at lower levels. Others have tried Gr. 1 company with some success but haven’t maintained that level of performance.

#1 Global Campaign has won 4 of 7 starts and always takes money. He won his first two races, weakened in the Fountain of Youth and then won the Peter Pan. He also was third to Tax and Tacitus in the Jim Dandy. Off since then, he scored a powerful victory in a Gulfstream allowance race in April but couldn’t follow through as favorite in the Blame. He’s always had some talent and fans keep waiting for him to step forward in a big way. Maybe this will be the time?

#4 Harper’s First Ride has no stakes experience. He’s made his reputation at Laurel while winning his last 2 races and 6 of 10 starts overall. He’s got some speed and his trainer hits at 23%. He’s probably overmatched in here, but we like to have winners on our side.

#5 Math Wizard is an example of a successful horse that’s just a smidge below the upper level. If the pace is right, he’ll be along in time to have something to say about the outcome. That’s what happened in the Gr. 1 Pennsylvania Derby when he upset the applecart at 31-1. He also was second in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby and third in the Gr. 3 Indiana Derby. Those were at 3 and his two starts at 4 haven’t been as good.

#7 Joevia is a speed horse and should have company up front. He’s 2 for 2 at Monmouth and exploded in the slop to win the Long Branch here last year. He set the pace in the Belmont Stakes before just missing to Sir Winston and Tacitus. He’s made four starts this year with an Aqueduct win and three poor efforts.

#9 Bal Harbour moves from trainer Todd Pletcher to Gregory Sacco for this. The 5-year-old gelding hasn’t won since November 2018 when he took the one-mile Gio Ponti at Aqueduct. He was second by a head to War Story in this race last year and then was beaten a half-length by Preservationist in the Gr. 1 Woodward. He’s 0 for 5 at the distance, though, with 2 seconds and 2 thirds.

#10 Bodexpress always shows speed and sometimes has gate issues. You may remember when he reared at the start of the Preakness and unseated his rider. The good news is that he’s drawn the far outside in here and will load last. Maybe he won’t have much time to think about things out there. Last out, favored in the March Gr. 3 Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream he stalked the pace, took the lead and then drifted out and weakened late in the mile and one-eighth test. This may not be his best distance. He’s 0 for 3 at the trip.

Use: #1, #4, #5, #7, #9, #10

11th Race—United Nations—Grade 1--$300,000
For Three-Year-Olds and Upward—One Mile and Three-Eighths Turf

#1 Arklow is wheeled back rather quickly by trainer Brad Cox after a wide trip in the Gr. 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland July 12. The 6-year-old veteran warrior has 6 wins in 27 starts and has earned over $1.8 million in earnings. He won the mile and one-half Gr. 1 Turf Classic in October at Belmont but has been winless since to make him just 1 for his last 10. He comes from far back and that always leaves a horse at the mercy of the pace. Still, he’s difficult to ignore in here.

#2 Standard Deviation is a 4-year-old colt from the Graham Motion stable that is 2 for 2 at Monmouth—including a win in the Jersey Derby. He previously was trained by Chad Brown and finished third in both the Gr. 2 Hill Prince and the Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby last year. He also comes from well off the pace and is making his second start for Motion following a wide trip in the Tiller Stakes.

#6 Current is a 4-year-old colt trained by Todd Pletcher that might have some improvement in him. He’s always been well-regarded and competed in Gr. 1 races at both 2 and 3. He finished second to #2 Standard Deviation in the Jersey Derby and was runner-up in the mile and one-half Gr. 2 Pan American one race back. A repeat of that pace-pressing performance fits in here.

#9 Paret appears as the only real speed in this race. He upset the Tiller field last out in wire-to-wire fashion at a monumental 38-1 odds, hanging on by just a head. Can history repeat? Maybe. It should be noted that Paret also was second at 22-1 going a mile and one-half in the Point of Entry at Belmont in his previous start in October. He’s 1 for his last 10 and a minor threat in this paceless group.

Use: #1, #2, #6, #9

The Ticket:

$.50 Pick 4 ($60)

9th Race: #1, #4, #5, #6, #7
10th Race: #1, #4, #5, #7, #9, #10
11th Race: #1, #2, #6, #9
12th Race: #2

Take care of each other. Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin Jul 18 '20, 3:45 PM in 19h
Soccer | Bologna vs AC Milan
Play on: AC Milan -1 -109 at pinnacle

BOLOGNA @ AC MILAN FREE PICK - JULY 18, 2020
AC Milan is undefeated with five wins and two draws in its seven Serie A games since the restart. Each of the wins has come by at least two goals and I expect them to come through again here against Bologna.
While AC Milan is battling Napoli for a Europa League spot, Bologna's season is all but over already, stuck in the middle of the table with no threat of relegation or chance of reaching the European competitions.
Additionally, we can note that AC Milan has won seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings, including a 3-2 win at Bologna in the reverse fixture back in December. I really don't see the visitors keeping it close here at San Siro this Saturday.
Free pick on AC Milan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd Jul 18 '20, 8:00 AM in 7h
PGA | Tiger Woods vs Brooks Koepka
Play on: Tiger Woods +115 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Tiger Woods +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus Jul 18 '20, 12:15 PM in 11h
Soccer | Volos NFC vs Panetolikos
Play on: Panetolikos -148 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Panetolikos -148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Jul 18 '20, 12:30 PM in 5h
Soccer | Burnley vs Norwich City
Play on: Burnley +129 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Burnley +129

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Pace & Stakes Analysis July 18, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands Pace is the signature race for the East Rutherford track and tonight's contest figures to be an exciting affair. The star-studded card features the top trotters and pacers in North America.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3-Del Miller Memorial Trot-Purse $253,500

1-Sorella (7/2)-A big test but having the rail wasn't a problem in the past and last week's win was impressive. Winner of 3 of 4 at the Big M comes into this race very sharp. Gingras can take advantage of main foes starting outside.
8-Hypnotic AM (3-1)-Cruised home from the 9-hole at VD and should be in the hunt throughout. Sears may get aggressive and look to make a quarter move, but he could grind it out.
10-Ramona Hill (9/2)-This is a tough filly with limited options from this post. Last week struck me as a measured effort from the 9-hole and it was a nice tune-up. This post draw is even worse, but fresh horse and should be heard from.

Race 7-Haughton Memorial Pace-Purse $391,300

4-Century Farroh (6-1)-Last week's trip could not have been worse and was really no fault of the driver. It was an odd race as everyone pulled from the beginning. Dave Miller steers again and could be sitting on a big try at a square price.
5-Backstreet Shadow (7/2)-Hard to find a fault with this Burke trainee who just missed from the 9-hole off a tough trip and was off 20 days. Gets a very good post and probably leaves and land on top or in the pocket behind #6.
6-Dancin Lou (3-1)-Program chalk deserves respect, has done some heavy lifting in last 2 starts. Knows how to win and should be a factor but have to wonder if his tank hasn't been drained due to the last 2 big efforts.

Race 8-Hambletonian Maturity-Purse $464,900

7-Reign Of Honor (12-1)-Will swing for a price, last 2 have been better and will look for upswing to continue. Does lose Dave Miller to #6 but Tim Tetrick is aboard and that's usually a good thing. It looks like a spot to blast and take control.
13-Gimpanzee (3-1)-The best horse in the race but gets a tough post draw. Sears will need #3 to leave in hurry and get some luck to be in position at the top of the stretch. It appears to be a tough task, but this champ will likely be in the hunt somehow.
1-Forbidden Trade (7/2)-The 2019 Hambo winner comes off a nice turn-up win at the Big M versus older. It wouldn't be a surprise if it's picture time tonight, but this post may not be the best for him.

Race 9-Meadowlands Pace-Purse $636,650

4-Allywag Hanover (9/2)-Doesn't have the bankroll of #5 and #9. But has blossomed in his 3-year-old season and will face the "A" team tonight. This is a Pelling pupil along with #9 and he gets the post edge over his stablemate. The post draw could make the difference and has some value at 9/2. Tetrick has options and could come off cover or race close to the lead.
5-Tall Dark Stranger (7/5)-Winner of 10 of 11 lifetime deserves to be the morning line chalk but at 7/5 doesn't offer any value versus a tough group. My guess is Gingras blasts this monster out and looks to wire the field. That could happen but it won't be easy.
9-Papi Rob Hanover (4-1)-Dave Miller will be aboard as usual, and this is another freak who has beaten #5 twice but was Dq'd once. This is the 3rd start of 2020 and in the first 2 was stuck with post 10. Doesn't get much of a break tonight but it's best to respect. It wouldn't surprise me if both Pelling entries hit the board. I will be using Rob in gimmicks and if the pace is sizzling he may roll by everyone.

I will be betting my top choice in each race to win.
In Race 8, #7 & #13 will be used in an exacta box and both will be keyed in exactas on top of #1. In Race 9, Papi Rob Hanover will be boxed in exactas with #4 and #5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Saratoga - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#4 No Deal
Stalker catches a group with plenty of speed, should be ale to lay off and get first run, and showed with that 2nd last time she fits at this level; look out.


#2 Lady By Choice
Maker claim (15%) lures main man Irad, so there's some serious intent here, and she too can stalk and pounce, though she's light on figures; second-best.


#3 Queen Kahen
Versatile miss closed last time, and that style would suit her well here, though she did lose to a pair of the speeds, so she needs to hurry; underneath only.


Race Summary
That 6-1 ML on the pick sure seems fair, especially with the prospective race flow and her running style, so play her in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she looks to be in a good spot, and yet a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.


Saratoga - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#1 Yaupon
Debut winner pressed and held at CD, and while facing winners is never easy, this is a modest crew, and he looks like a Lone F; come and catch the pick.


#3 Blindwillie McTell
Classy NYB has won a slew of stakes but was a dismal 5th at the level in his only try against open, and now hasn't been out since Feb. either; trying to beat.


#2 Binkster
Veteran usually fires and every now and again it's good enough, but he was flat last time, and we've seen his ceiling as well; looks to be a supporting actor.


Race Summary
You won't get rich on the 1 but he might be something, while the rest of these, aside from the 3, really aren't, and the latter has some question marks attached, so play the pick aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks to have a huge race flow edge against this group.


Saratoga - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#3 Altaf
Lightly raced runner for Brown inhaled the field in her CD MSW win, and while this would normally be a seismic step up in class, this is as weak a renewal of this as you'll ever seen, there's speed too, and you know she'll love this trip; mows them all down late.


#2 Antoinette
Logical sort has a few solid dirt races showing and either would make her a player here, and, like the pick, she's another who shouldn't be intimidated by the trip, for a Mott barn that may have found a sweet spot for this Godolphin homebred;would be no surprise.


#6 Paris Lights
The more fancied of the Brown runners aired in her second staight at CD and is clearly a bigtime talent, but the price will be short, the wide draw won't help, and there's speed to her inside too, not to mention she'll be way overbet with no edge; making her prove it.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 3, who has the look of an up-and-comer and will see out every inch of this trip, which isn't something some of these gals know for sure, so play her to win and place, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she could very well fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Laurel Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#6 Dontmesawithme
Perfect outside of stakes company, he'll try the turf for the first time today. If he handles the footing, he's quick enough to win this at a solid number on the board.


#3 Tricks To Doo
Has some upside in this second start off the layoff after catching a nice winner who will try Monmouth stakes company today.


#8 Stroll Smokin
Forward player draws well outside, and he has a mild pressing gear that should serve him well if one of the other runners with some pace want to make a break for it.


Race Summary
Dontmesawithme would feel like a pretty big overlay at anything like the 20/1 ML price, as he has run a trio of really nice races outside of stakes company and can get a great trip near the splits with these. Question is if he'll like the lawn.


Laurel Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#8 Villamoura
Blinkers on after a mostly even debut try, and she has plenty of room to improve with the experience and the equipment chance.


#10 Coconut Cake
Finished with a big rush in the debut run with better, but I wouldn't want to take anything shorter than the 3/1 ML offering to find out if she can get there today.


#5 Summer Hours
Needs better today, but she's got some early hoof that should keep her in the mix out of the gate in a spot where the likely chalk is going to be finishing late.


Race Summary
Villamoura has some upside with the blinkers going on this afternoon, and after making a mild middle move in the debut, the blinks might allow her to sustain that kind of effort today.


Laurel Park - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#9 No Bull Addiction
Might offer something better with the comeback race out of the way, and he'll be a big price in a spot where his best stuff fits.


#4 Papal Law
Speed probably doesn't meet a ton of other early pace here, and like the top choice, he may stay better with his 2020 debut under his belt.


#1 Rambaldi
Euro invader doesn't catch the toughest of groups, but he'll be running nine furlongs off the layoff which is a question.


Race Summary
No Bull Addiction can get a really good go of things from near the top with these, and he has some room to improve off his comeback run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Running Aces - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#4 SWAGASAURUSREX
Brushed to clear lead, second best, takes class hike.


#6 MARCED MAGIC
One to beat at this level in bid for his 29th victory.


#1 MARKTENTWENTYSEVEN
Surged late at 6-1 pace-setter, just missed.


Race Summary
Swagasaurusrex made a strong middle move but settled for second best after a :56.4 back half as the favorite. He steps up in class but can win with a well-timed bid. Play a 4-6-ALL trifecta.


Meadowlands - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#4 ALLYWAG HANOVER
Eye-popping moves in last pair, might be this good.


#5 TALL DARK STRANGER
Picked up where he left off as champion 2yo in near-perfect career.


#9 PAPI ROB HANOVER
Plagued by outside posts since return, appears rounding to big effort.


Race Summary
Allywag Hanover pierced the wind and rain at Harrah’s Philadelphia with an explosive turn of foot to remain unbeaten in three starts this year. He might be good enough to upset last year’s Breeders Crown champion Tall Dark Stranger and $764k earning stablemate Papi Rob Hanover for a trainer that has four Meadowlands Pace wins. Play 4-5 and 4-9 exactas.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#9 SPRINGBRIDGE DUEL
Lived up to the hype in his debut, can’t go beyond.


#8 TWIN B FIGHTER
Stayed in at key juncture, free to late, got up for second behind fave.


#4 TWIN B HEART THROB
Sat pocket trip behind top one, held third, makes third start.


Race Summary
Four 2-year-old arrive in this sire stakes test off debut victories, but none were as impressive as Springbridge Duel, who blasted to command in the second quarter and drew away from the field on his own courage in the stretch. He is today’s Best Bet despite post 9 assignment.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Running for Ritz
Has exceptional speed from the gate, can get a padded lead and should be able to hold on; in a good spot to get his first win since 2019.


#5 Win With Pride
Clearly off to an easy win last out and despite taking a step up should be able to run well vs. these.


#3 Flashy Kyem
Made a strong move to the lead and then had little left, finishing 2nd; capable of a big effort with a well-timed move.


Race Summary
Running for Ritz has the opportunity to run them off their field early on and is long overdue to hold on; makes second start for Catenese stable.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#1 Sensible Myth
Has a good chance to save ground and position herself just off the pace today; possesses the finishing move to win this.


#4 Classy of Course
Loves it on the front end and will have a good opportunity for that; would not be a surprise.


#2 Sassy Justice
Was claimed in his latest by the Winebaugh stable, which is always capable of winning a race; can be in the mix throughout.


Race Summary
Sensible Myth comes off a closing 2nd keeps Panici and should be very tough in her second local start after a 3.5-month breather.


Gulfstream Park - Race #11


Picks
Notes


#2 Quenane
Has won four of her last five and won a race similar to this three races back; capable of closing well for the win.


#1 Red Crescent
Pressed the pace and finished 3rd in a handicap last out; makes 4th start of the year and can be a factor from the first stride.


#3 Harvey Wallbanger
Didn't fire last time but has several good starts over this strip; good closer.


Race Summary
Quenane rarely runs a bad one and loves the track; can be in good position from the start and can get the jump on closers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Jul 18 '20, 8:35 PM in 11h
Fighting | Luana Carolina vs Ariane Lipski
Play on: Luana Carolina +100 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Luana Carolina +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero



Camarero - Race 4

Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5



Claiming $14,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 75 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 4:00P


FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 18, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $10,000 1 LB.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MISERY MOON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the hig hest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAY RIVER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BEAUTY ISLAND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANNE WITH AN E: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



5

MISERY MOON

2/1


5/1




3

GRAY RIVER

5/1


6/1




4

BEAUTY ISLAND

5/2


6/1




2

ANNE WITH AN E

7/2


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




4

BEAUTY ISLAND

4


5/2

Front-runner

73


70


80.4


67.4


59.9




3

GRAY RIVER

3


5/1

Front-runner

75


72


79.4


65.2


59.7




5

MISERY MOON

5


2/1

Front-runner

76


73


77.2


74.2


71.7




2

ANNE WITH AN E

2


7/2

Stalker

68


72


69.8


67.0


59.5




6

GREMALATA'S GIRL

6


10/1

Stalker

64


61


56.4


58.0


48.5




1

OPPORTUNE

1


3/1

Alternator/Non-contender

67


67


50.8


54.6


46.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 6

$1 Exacta /$1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta(.10cent minimum wager) $1 Daily Double



Claiming $16,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $7,165 • Post: 8:20P


QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KICK IT PAPA JOE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LOOKE AT ME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ROUSING FREIGHT: Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VICTORIOSO DINASTIA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. UP FOR KIDS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



4

KICK IT PAPA JOE

2/1


5/1




6

LOOKE AT ME

8/1


6/1




2

ROUSING FREIGHT

7/2


7/1




1

VICTORIOSO DINASTIA

7/2


9/1




5

UP FOR KIDS

8/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

VICTORIOSO DINASTIA

1


7/2

Average

76


78


0.0


0.0


0.0




2

ROUSING FREIGHT

2


7/2

Slow

87


74


6.9


0.0


0.0




3

LOVEPOP

3


3/1

Average

80


71


5.0


0.0


0.0




4

KICK IT PAPA JOE

4


2/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

86


81


8.5


0.0


0.0




5

UP FOR KIDS

5


8/1

Average

82


72


5.2


0.0


0.0




6

LOOKE AT ME

6


8/1

Average/Trouble-prone

93


75


5.9


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#11 SMART WARRIOR (ML=4/1)
#6 WINSTON'S WAY (ML=6/1)


SMART WARRIOR - I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp outing within the last 30 days. In this race here, this beautiful animal has recorded the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Dropping 7 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. WINSTON'S WAY - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jock/trainer combination. I like that recent contest on Jun 27th at Laurel where he ran third. Another way to judge class is earnings per race. This horse has the uppermost in the field. I think he'll be close at the end. The improved speed figs over the last 3 races is solid. Capuano drops him in this event fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #13 TIGER KINGDOM (ML=3/1), #7 TARGET ROCK (ML=5/1),

TIGER KINGDOM - 3/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance race of late. TARGET ROCK - 5/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when looking at the most recent efforts.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #11 SMART WARRIOR on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,11]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at WoodbineAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $60300 Class Rating: 84

INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR ONTARIO SIRED ALLOWANCE WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 LET'S HAVE FUN 7/2




# 3 SPANISH BALLERINA 3/1




# 4 SECRET ARCHANGEL 6/1




LET'S HAVE FUN looks respectable to best this field. May see a turnaround with blinkers going on in this competition. The speed figure of 75 from her latest race looks decent in here. SPANISH BALLERINA - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good handicapping angle. This horse ranks at the top in this field. May best this group of horses in this race here, showing solid numbers of late. SECRET ARCHANGEL - Has posted sound Equibase speed figs in turf sprint races in the past. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

[golden contender]

On Saturday the comp play is on Rio Avenue in early soccer Primeira leauge play. Rio Avenue has a 10 point advantage over Santa Clara in the table. Santa Clara has a poor away form in the campaign and has recently dropped points in four of their last five road games. RIO has won 4 of 5 here in the series. Rio is off a scoreless draw last out but should have ball control here and hit the back of the net mote than once. Sprinkle in revenge for a 3-0 loss at Santa Clara in last league meeting and we will Side with the home team here. On Saturday the card has a Platinum Supreme top play in serie a league, the Haskell invitational at Monmouth Park, the UFC Flyweight Championship and a play on the ESPN Subway series in MLB. See us on facebook to jump on. For the Primeria League Soccer Comp Play make it Rio Avenue. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Prairie Meadows - Race #9 - Post: 9:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 69

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 FABULOUS GIRL (ML=5/2)
#2 ADARI (ML=7/2)
#3 TA (ML=5/1)


FABULOUS GIRL - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the capability to make her presence felt. I really like that most recent effort on June 27th at Prairie Meadows where she finished third. A repeat performance from any of last 3 races around the track, and this one should be in 1st place. That 69 fig this mare notched in her last event tells me she's a main player this time. ADARI - Good return on investment for this rider and trainer twosome. Chleborad drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this one will be one to beat at this level. I like to see fast morning drills. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. I think that the addition of blinkers today will keep her mind on the race at hand. Is ranked number one in the field in earnings per start. A dominant effort today will boost the lifetime bankroll. TA - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STARVANA (ML=9/5),

STARVANA - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment executed now and then.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ADARI - Some may pass on this one given her lackluster showing at Prairie Meadows in last race. But that was on a track listed as good. Watch out for this horse today.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #1 FABULOUS GIRL on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more



EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [2,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 55

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 HOURS PRIOR TO POST TIME FOR THE RACE.).




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 GOD WINK 5/1




# 5 SUMMER WAR 12/1




# 6 CRIMSON LUCK 15/1




GOD WINK is my choice. The Lasix change (now going off Lasix) may spark a return for this filly. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field lately. Could go off at a solid price and has some positives going for her. SUMMER WAR - Appears to be the type to be helped now going off Lasix here. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. CRIMSON LUCK - The conditioner wheels this entrant back quickly to race again. With Graham getting the mount, watch out for this pony.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park



07/18/20, LRL, Race 3, 1.40 ET
07/18/20,LRL,3,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:00:04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $47,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since May 18 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (Races Where Entered For $35,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Horses which have not run since March 15, 2020, may enter a claiming race and waive the claiming price ifthe horse is entered for a claiming price not less than the claiming price of it's last start. This rule is only applicable for a horse's first start back for a period of 90 days, starting with the first day live racing resumes in Maryland). (If deemed iinadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five and One half Furlongs) (Rail at 17 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
8
Stroll Smokin
6-1
Perez X
Robb John J.
TSL
39.78
1.64/$1


099.2060
4
Completed Pass
7/2
Cruz A
Gonzalez Claudio A.
EW
39.78
1.64/$1


098.4807
3
Tricks to Doo
5/2
Lynch F
Delacour Arnaud


39.78
1.64/$1


097.9019
5
Oldies But Goodies(b+)
9/2
Pimentel J
Trombetta Michael J.
J
39.78
1.64/$1


096.9802
1
Clever Triad
6-1
Toledo J
Merryman Ann W.


39.78
1.64/$1


096.5093
7
Love You Much
9/2
Ruiz J
Allen. III A. Ferris
FC
39.78
1.64/$1


096.2077
6
Dontmesawithme
20-1
Karamanos H
Stites Flint W.


39.78
1.64/$1


093.2878
2
Jammer
20-1
Hamilton W
Leaf. Jr. Robert


39.78
1.64/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 38.78, ROI 1.62/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
8
Stroll Smokin
6-1
Perez X
Robb John J.
JTFEL
30.77
1.38/$1


099.0457
3
Tricks to Doo
5/2
Lynch F
Delacour Arnaud
S
30.77
1.38/$1


097.9830
4
Completed Pass
7/2
Cruz A
Gonzalez Claudio A.
W
30.77
1.38/$1


097.7288
5
Oldies But Goodies(b+)
9/2
Pimentel J
Trombetta Michael J.


30.77
1.38/$1


097.3825
7
Love You Much
9/2
Ruiz J
Allen. III A. Ferris
C
30.77
1.38/$1


096.5548
6
Dontmesawithme
20-1
Karamanos H
Stites Flint W.


38.46
1.24/$1


096.4225
1
Clever Triad
6-1
Toledo J
Merryman Ann W.


27.70
0.82/$1


093.5308
2
Jammer
20-1
Hamilton W
Leaf. Jr. Robert


30.77
1.38/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.55, ROI 0.90/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



07/18/20, GP, Race 3, 12.58 ET
07/18/20,GP,3,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:14:02 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 18 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
4
Abarrio Forever
8-1
Meneses M
Perez Carlos Luis
S
38.64
1.33/$1


099.5001
1
Mermaid Kisses
5-1
Burgos A
Ward Dennis
W
33.13
1.19/$1


098.8689
6
Suzie Its You
12-1
Garcia J A
Orseno Joseph F.
FE
31.37
1.57/$1


098.2743
2
Beast of Wildwood(b-)
4-1
Vasquez M A
Walder Peter R.
T
31.61
1.13/$1


098.1048
7
Socially Astray
3-1
Camacho S
Sano Antonio
J
32.43
1.12/$1


097.9677
3
Poseidons Princess
9/2
Fuentes M
Pilotti Larry
L
27.34
1.25/$1


095.7610
8
Joplin
20-1
Olsson F
Mongeon Kathy P.


28.96
1.11/$1


095.4170
5
Gran Brandy
7/2
Trejos J
Barboza. Jr. Victor
C
31.61
1.13/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 24.74, ROI 0.86/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Jul 18 '20, 3:05 PM in 3h
Soccer | Dinamo Zagreb vs Istra 1961
Play on: Dinamo Zagreb -271 at 1BetVegas

FREE PLAY on Dinamo Zagreb -271

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SI MMA expert Casey Olson


Last four cards ... 15-2 run (88%)


Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2

After Henry Cejudo rode off into the sunset and vacated the flyweight title, these two squared off for “nexties” back in February, and the result unfortunately left both leaving the night without the belt.

Figueiredo came in missing weight; with a victory he couldn’t leave with the belt and only Benavidez could be crowned with a win. After a clash of heads in the second round, Figueiredo scored a KO, and the UFC was left to run it back between the top two in the world. Now, who takes the rematch?

While Figueiredo comes in with a chip on his shoulder, looking to validate last February’s KO of Benavidez yet again, we are seeing a different side of Joe B. from an emotional standpoint.

Always the pro, Benavidez is coming in with no well wishes for his opponent. He can count maybe three in his career that he’s truly disliked now with Figueiredo. With these emotions we rarely see from the guy even before weigh-ins, coupled with the fact that this is his fourth and probably last crack at the title, the travel, testing protocols, it will be a lot before we even get to fight time.

Benavidez is coming into this event at 35 years of age, and he will be the oldest fighter on the entire card. A loss would make him the only fighter to go 0-4 in title fights in the UFC.

No pressure right? In this matchup, he will have the higher output volume no doubt about it. The problem I see though is he tends to get into chess matches with his opponents regardless of their skillset, and look to match them at what they are best at. This will be problematic against Figueiredo just as it was in their last match. Figueiredo's fighting style is typically lower output than his foe, but when he attacks, it's with power and the best accuracy amongst the division. (52.5% significant strikes landed per attempt). He’s earned 15 of his 18 wins by way of stoppage, and has no real holes in his skillset. We saw that in their first fight as he almost submitted Benavidez late in the first round, only to follow up with the KO early in the second.

Figueiredo is making the flight with only just over 4 pounds to drop in order to make the weight, which should be a breeze. With a full 25 minutes to work, I like the odds of another finish for the Brazilian.

PREDICTION: DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VIA ITD +100



ARIANE LIPSKI (12-5) VS LUANA CAROLINA (6-1)

I'm going to take a stab at the plus money on Carolina. She looked great in her UFC debut against “Zombie Girl” and had 251 total strike attempts, landing 126 and doubling the output cruising to a decision win as a big underdog.

She’s in the dog spot again here against Ariane Lipski, who will have the experience advantage, and will look to trade carrying on her kick name, “The Violence Queen.” Carolina has decent grappling, but will most likely look to press and engage on the feet. Lipski will trade, but has the much lower accuracy, and limited movement which results in her absorbing more than landing on average.

Carolina is coming in with the highest SLpM on the card at 6.53, mostly due to her small sample, but I see the trend continuing. She will continue to move forward, Lipski will miss, and Carolina will score.

PREDICTION: LUANA CAROLINA +110



BRETT JOHNS (16-2) VS MONTEL JACKSON (9-1)

I see this as a great matchup for Jackson. Height, reach, speed, all in favor of the prospect. Jackson will need to stay sharp and follow his corner’s gameplan, as Johns can be sneaky with the takedowns. We saw this in Johns’ last match against Tony Gravely, where Gravely got sucked in and attempted to grapple a little too much, which resulted in Johns locking in the submission choke. Jackson should look to keep it standing and pick him a part on the feet at a distance. His takedown defense will be key if he wants to win this one, along with an early start, looking to score and take at least the first two rounds on his way to a decision win.

PREDICTION: MONTELL JACKSON -200 (Take a look at via DEC -110)



DAVI RAMOS (10-3) VS ARMAN TSARUKYAN (14-2)

Stylistically, I just see this as a great spot for Tsarukyan. The future contender will look to grapple and score with heavy activity from the top position. He’s been known to wear on his opponents to the point where they give up submission opportunities. From the feet, he’s great at catching kicks, and don’t be surprised if you see multiple attempts at single legs down to the mat. Ramos will struggle to takedown Tsarukyan, and it will probably be sixes on the feet, with a slight lean to the Armenian.

PREDICTION: ARMAN TSARUKYAN -200



CARLOS FELIPE (8-0) VS SERGHEI SPIVAK (10-2)

If you saw my tweet earlier this last week, you know where I’m at here. UFC debuting fighter, Felipe, hasn’t had an MMA fight in over 3 years. Not by choice. He was suspended for taking fat burners that had banned substances, so he had to sit on the sidelines for a bit. I believe he took a boxing bout back in 2018, but nothing since.

Although he is undefeated, I don’t see too much in the tool kit other than power in his hands. He’s pretty aggressive in striking and looks to get into wars. Not too much footage out there on him, but when his opponent closes, it looks like some decent grappling will cause him some issues. Spivak should have enough grappling to cause some of this. A good sample and comparable skillset matchup was Spivak vs Tuivasa. Spivak landed six takedowns against the heavy Tua Tuivasa which eventually resulted in a submission win.

As long as Spivak can close and avoid the strikes, he should have the advantage on the mat and wear Felipe down. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Filipe talk in there to try and suck Spivak into keeping it standing. Don’t do it Serghei.

PREDICTION: SERGHEI SPIVAK -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sat Jul 18, 2020
England - FA Cup- Arsenal (n) vs. Manchester City OVER 3 -138 (2:45 PM)
Norway - Eliteserien- Mjondalen vs. Bodo Glimt OVER 3 -171 (12:00 PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

UFC & Horse Picks 7/18

Sat Jul 18, 2020
Lost of action today...Got some UFC and some big races including the Haskell.

100* Davi Ramos +160

Saratoga Race 1
#3 Mo Mischief $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-2-6

Saratoga Race 10
#6 Paris Lights $10 wps
$2 exacta box 6-1-2

Monmouth Race 12 (Haskell)
#1 Dr Post $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-2-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 7/18/20 July 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, July 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Monmouth Park Day Makers: View Video (https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-day-makers-for-july-18th-2020/)

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Mo Mischief; 6-Repo Rocks

Forecast: Mo Mischief brought $500,000 at the OBS March sale after breezing a quarter mile in a sizzling :21 flat, and the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be plenty fit following a healthy series of drills that date back to late May. We caught a glimpse of this colt at Palm Beach Downs in early June (view workout) (https://www.xbtv.com/video/mo-mischief-(outside)-and-an-unnamed-horse-out-of-the-dam-return-to-paradise-worked-3-furlongs-in/mo-mischief-outside-and-an-unnamed-horse-out-of-the-dam-return-to-paradise-worked-3-furlongs-in-38-63-at-palm-beach-downs-on-june-1st-2020/) and came away with the impression that he would be capable of displaying plenty of zip when turned loose. Repo Bucks is a debuting Tapiture colt from the W. Mott barn, and while the stable isn’t known to crank ‘em up first time out this colt is bred to be quick and shows a work tab that indicates plenty of speed and ability. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both will be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Mo Mischief.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mr. Kringle; 3-Winning Factor

Forecast: Mr. Kringle has been competitive in recent stakes and allowance races but is eligible to this starter’s affair for having started in a $50,000 claimer in his debut last October. The J. Terranova-trained colt is dropping to steal a purse after finishing a distant but respectable third in a listed event last month at Belmont Park. From the rail, the son of Shakin It Up is guaranteed a second flight, ground-saving trip and against this group certainly will be a short price to regain his winning form. Winning Factor is worth consideration in rolling exotic play, at least as a back-up or a saver. Considerably improved in his last pair after joining the D. Donk barn, he broke his maiden last time out in $40,000 seller while earning a number that makes him fairly competitive with ‘Kringle. A son of The Factor who prefers to lay back and then blast home, he came against the grain to graduate going away like a colt who has finally figured things out.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Decorated Invader

Forecast: Decorated Invader has the makings of an exceptional turf colt and is most deserving of strong favoritism in this year’s edition of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S.-G2. Perfect in two starts as a 3-year-old, the son of Declaration of War was a Grade-1 winner as a juvenile (Summer S. at Woodbine) and looks even better in 2020, having won the Cutler Bay S. in March at Gulfstream Park and then most recently blowing past his opposition to capture the Pennine Ridge S.-G2 last month. He’s certain to be odds-on, so let’s pass the race other than to use the C. Clement-trained 3-year-old as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Baby Boss; 7-Letmetakethiscall

Forecast: Baby Boss is a stakes winner dropping into a seller for the first time – certainly suspiciously so off a nearly seven month layoff– but if the New York-bred mare reproduces her best form (and leaves cleanly from the rail) she should be able to outrun this group at short odds. The work tab at Finger Lakes seems decent enough but the barn’s record with comebackers is only so-so. There are too many mixed signals to have any degree of confidence, so for protection we’ll also include Letmetakethiscall, a solid third vs. $25,000 foes last month and being raised a notch in class today in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. Always thoroughly genuine and consistent, the veteran Take Charge Indy mare does her best running on the front end and will try to pop and go from her cozy outside draw.
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RACE 5: Post 3:24 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Conglomerate; 6-Oak Hill; 9-The Angry Man

Forecast: This looks like a stronger than average maiden race for older horses at a mile over the inner turf course. We’ll go three-deep while preferring The Angry Man on top. With the always-preferred two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve dramatically on grass, the son of Summer Front is strong on speed figures, switches to J. Rosario, exits a fast, highly-rated race, and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. Oak Hill closed a gap sprinting on grass in his debut at Churchill Downs last month in a fairly promising effort and hails from a barn that usually does well with second-timers. The A. Stall-trained son of Distorted Humor shows a nice three furlong blowout on grass just five days ago to have him right on edge. Conglomerate has been in training for a long time and finally makes it to the post. The C. Brown-trained colt has shown plenty of promise in drills dating back to last year, and as a son of Lemon Drop Kid (and a long-striding one at that) he should be especially effective on grass. We suggest you include him.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Catman; 8-Breakthrough; 10-Pivotal Mission

Forecast: Here’s an intriguing two-turn maiden race on grass for 2-year-olds. Breakthrough has the benefit of a couple of prior runs and sports the dangerous two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern. The W. Ward-trained colt has burned money in both of his outings, hitting the board but failing to punch it in as the favorite, but his most recent race wasn’t bad as he was almost three lengths clear of the rest despite a less-than-ideal trip. He’s a son of Nyquist and therefore should handle the trip, and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number. Catman has been training at Indiana Downs but shows up for his debut at Saratoga, so he were going to assume that he’s somewhat well regarded. The M. Maker-trained son of Kitten’s Joy is 8-1 under I. Ortiz, Jr., so at that price we’ll give him some consideration. Pivotal Mission, purchased for $200,000 as a yearling, is a son of Noble Mission from a strictly European female family and has been doing some good work at Fair Hills for G. Motion. It’s possible he’ll need a race but a bullet five furlong drill over the all-weather track in 1:00 1/5 nine days ago catches the eye so we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 7: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Yaupon; 2-Binkster

Forecast: Yaupon showed some moxie in his victorious debut at Churchill Downs last month, battling bravely under pressure the length of the lane and winning by a nose (pair more than four clear of the rest) while earning a strong speed figure. The. S. Asmussen-trained son of Uncle Mo returns off a month’s rest with two easy recent local breezes, and if he can leave cleanly from the rail he seems capable of scoring right back. Binkster is considerably more seasoned, having finished first or second in nine of 20 career outings, including a pair of strong runner-up efforts over the Saratoga main track last year. He projects to be close to the pace throughout and have every chance when it matters. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to the high-potential Yaupon.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Creative Style; 7-Shalako; 9-Hammerin Aamer

Forecast: There should be enough pace in this nine furlong $25,000 claimer to set things up for the closers, so in what has to be a spread race we’ll concentrate and those that figure to benefit from the projected race flow. Creative Style is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track and is fresh from a sharp win with a strong figure in a $32,000 seller at Belmont Park four weeks ago. This class drop off a win always is of some concern, but if the Creative Cause gelding has one good one left he should be hard to beat. Hammerin Aamer actually won his most recent start at Laurel Park in gate-to-wire fashion at a one-turn mile but the son of Jump Star can be effective from the second flight if the race shape dictates. From the high-percentage B. Russell barn, the veteran gelding is fast on speed figures off his best race and is realistically spotted in his first start for a tag. Shalako is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and in a race in which the fractions should be fairly quick the son of Malibu Moon could be heard from late at a nice price (he’s 10-1 on the morning line). With eight career wins on his resume, the veteran gelding knows where the wire is.
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RACE 9: Post 5:43 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ramsey Solution; 6-Set Piece; 7-Digital Age

Forecast: Set Piece won his U.S. debut at Churchill Downs last month like a gelding with a future, and this jump to the three-other-than allowance ranks should be within his scope. A stakes winner in his final English outing last November over an all-weather surface that was assigned a giant Timeform Rating, the son of Dansili can really blast home and with a repeat of either one of his last two outings he should be capable of producing another winning late kick. Digital Age is another deep closer that should be heard from in the final stages. Though beaten as the favorite in his recent comeback at Belmont Park, the stretch-running Irish-bred colt earned a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today he could give ‘Piece a serious challenge. Second in the Saratoga Derby over the local lawn last year and the winner of the American Turf S.-G2 earlier in his sophomore campaign, the C. Brown-trained colt retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The lightly-raced Ramsey Solution also should be included on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver. Capable of winning on the front end or as a stalker, the son of Real Solution is fast on figures, and with just five career starts (three wins) the W. Ward-trained gelding has plenty of room for further development.
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RACE 10: Post 6:16 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tonalist’s Shape; 6-Paris Lights

Forecast: Paris Lights has the perfect stalking style for this nine furlong distance and can dictate the race flow from her cozy outside draw. A winner of two of three career starts, the last two by daylight in dominating style, the W. Mott-trained daughter of Curlin should get nothing but better with experience and maturity, and while this will be her first appearance in a stakes race, the daughter of Curlin should be able to take the class hike in stride. Tonalist’s Shape boasts an impressive resume – she’s won six of seven starts including four stakes, three of then graded. Her numbers have fluctuated but she’s fast when she needs to be and has the pedigree to improve as the distances increase. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Paris Lights.
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RACE 11: Post 6:49 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Midnight Whisker; 7-Papa Luke

Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden special weight sprint for New York-bred older horses. Papa Luke was more than three clear of the rest when a solid runner-up in a similar maiden dash at Belmont Park last month, and a repeat of that race today could put the Strong Mandate gelding in the winner’s circle. The A. Dutrow-trained 4-year-old is drawn outside the other speed, so stalking tactics can be employed if Johnny V. so chooses. Midnight Whisker has improving form for S. Asmussen, retains J. Rosario, and shows a healthy, steady series of workouts since finishing a close fourth (beaten a neck) in a muddy track affair in early June. The son of Bourbon Courage projects as a pace-forcer, and with another forward move could stick around a long time.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley


Carlos Felipe by TKO (+250)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBS mixed martial arts analyst Brandon Wise


Alexandre Pantoja (-200) to earn a stoppage victory

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC

Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez
Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Diakiese
Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina
Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Ibragimov
Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Dawson - Like Narimani in DFS still
Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy
Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson
Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon
Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Tsarukyan
Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Spivac

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

UFC

Deiveson Figueiredo (-215) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+185): Figueiredo by decision

I love Joe Jitsu. UFC has tried for the longest time to get a belt around his waist to cap off an incredible career with a championship. But at 35, it feels like it's just too late. Figueiredo showed in the first matchup (albeit by coming in heavy) that he was the harder hitter and more technical striker. Unless Benavidez can get this to the ground and work some submissions, I don't see a path to victory for the perennial bridesmaid.

Kelvin Gastelum (-115) vs. Jack Hermansson (-105): Hermansson by decision

After dazzling fans in his fight of the year with Israel Adesanya, Gastelum never got going in an upset loss against Darren Till. The Mexican-American brawler just has a tendency for flat performances when taking on great-to-elite competition. Against Hermansson, who will do well to cancel out the wrestling if not impose himself on Gastelum, it's going to be a tough ask. Look for Hermansson to control the pace and grind for 15 minutes to a decision.

Marc Diakese (-160) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Fiziev by decision

Believe in the hype. Fiziev is a real problem for Diakese in this matchup. Despite Diakese's recent run of success, he's in a tough spot against a great kickboxer. Look for Fiziev to control the pace of this one early and grind out a decision victory.

Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Lipski by decision

This fight has going the distance written all over it. If you can get in on that kind of prop, it may be more lucrative than Lipski at this number. Neither of these women are likely to pick up a finish and I lean toward the fighter with more experience in these spots. Lipski should take care of business with relative ease.

Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+175): Pantoja by TKO

This is a sneaky Fight of the Night contender. Pantoja has crazy ability with as balanced a resume as imaginable (eight TKOs, eight submissions, six decisions). Askarov is coming off an incredible performance against Tim Elliott where he was able to neutralize his awkward style. Pantoja's creative striking should be the difference, but watch out if Askarov is able to get inside and take Pantoja to the ground. Still, I think Pantoja finishes the Russian eventually in this matchup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

GOLF

Tony Finau and Ryan Palmer, who've combined for five PGA Tour victories, enter the weekend with a one-shot lead at the 2020 Memorial Tournament. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm, the No. 2 ranked player in the world, sits just one-shot back heading into Saturday. We simulated the final two rounds of the 2020 Memorial Tournament 10,000 times, and there are some MAJOR surprises.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over long shot winner Collin Morikawa last week at the Workday Charity Open. It identified him as a top contender from the start despite his long odds and McClure recommended an outright bet on him to win at 33-1. The model also called Bryson DeChambeau taking the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Additionally, it has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend.

The model predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend.

And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright.


The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Jon Rahm (5-2)
2. Tony Finau (4-1)
3. Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
4. Justin Thomas (14-1)
5. Gary Woodland (10-1)
6. Viktor Hovland (16-1)
7. Rory McIlroy (20-1)
8. Ryan Palmer (10-1)
9. Chez Reavie (28-1)
10. Matthew Fitzpatrick (60-1)

The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:

11 Jason Day
12 Luke List
13 Jim Furyk
14 Danny Willett
15 Jordan Spieth
16 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17 Lucas Glover
18 Mackenzie Hughes
19 Henrik Norlander
20 Matt Kuchar
21 Steve Stricker
22 Dylan Frittelli
23 Collin Morikawa
24 Brendan Steele
25 Jimmy Walker
26 Matt Wallace
27 Patrick Rodgers
28 Louis Oosthuizen
29 Xander Schauffele
30 Patrick Reed
31 Brooks Koepka
32 Abraham Ancer
33 Bo Hoag
34 Kevin Na
35 Scott Harrington
36 Harris English
37 Sergio Garcia
38 Scottie Scheffler
39 Kevin Streelman
40 Carl Pettersson
41 Erik Van Rooyen
42 Tiger Woods
43 Lanto Griffin
44 Jason Dufner
45 Marc Leishman
46 Joel Dahmen
47 Corey Conners
48 Adam Hadwin
49 Billy Horschel
50 Brendon Todd
51 Matthew Wolff
52 Sepp Straka
53 Ryan Moore
54 Xinjun Zhang
55 Bubba Watson
56 Charles Howell III
57 Phil Mickelson
58 Scott Piercy
59 Sebastian Munoz
60 Vijay Singh
61 Bud Cauley
62 Si Woo Kim
63 Zach Johnson
64 Denny McCarthy
65 Mark Hubbard
66 Carlos Ortiz
67 Keegan Bradley
68 Cameron Smith
69 Keith Mitchell
70 Tyler Duncan
71 William McGirt
72 Stewart Cink
73 Sung Kang
74 C.T. Pan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

For UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez

Deiveson Figueiredo (-210) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+175): Benavidez by decision

This is a rematch from about five months ago, when Figueiredo finished Benavidez in the second round and would have won the title if he made weight for the fight. Now they are going to run it again for the belt. Figueiredo did look good in the first matchup and almost submitted Benavidez in the first round. He was outstruck in both rounds, however, and it really was his power that looked to be the difference for him. I don't know that he can keep that power for five rounds in this one, and Benavidez suffered a cut from a big head butt in the first fight that could have played into the knockout soon afterward. I think -220 is just too high, even though Figueiredo probably wins this fight more than he loses it. This will be a close fight and I will take Benavidez to win three of the five rounds and get his hand raised.

Jack Hermansson (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-115): Hermansson by decision

This is a close one. Kelvin is the better boxer and has more power on the feet. Hermansson is the more active fighter on the feet and probably the better wrestler/grappler, and he is going to have a six-inch reach advantage as well. This will be a close fight, but I would take Hermansson to win this fight slightly more than he loses it. He should be the slight favorite, but Kelvin is a bigger name, so I think we can wait and get underdog money on this one if we are looking to bet it. That is probably what I would try to do if betting on Hermansson. He should be able to keep the striking close, if not even win that battle, and he can fall back on the wrestling to steal close rounds. Hermansson also could make rounds very clear if he comes in with a grappling-based game plan.

Marc Diakiese (-165) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+140): Fiziev by decision

I am pretty high on both of these lightweights. On the feet, this is probably going to be very close, and I can see Fiziev being the faster and more dangerous guy who wins the striking by landing more - and a bigger variety of shots as well. Diakiese is going to need to get this fight to the ground in order to have his real advantage, and that could be enough to get him the win if the striking is close. However, -160 is a tough price to lay, and Diakiese has been a guy I like to bet. I think this might actually be dog or pass because Fiziev is legit on the feet and could even get a finish.

Ariane Lipski (-130) vs. Luana Carolina (+110): Carolina by decision

I expect this to be a striking match, and it probably will be a close one. I really don't trust either fighter or have a strong lean, so I think I have to say it is dog or pass either way. Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter, but I don't see her looking for a lot of takedowns, and on the feet, I could see Carolina landing more volume and winning a striking battle that way. I will take the underdog since I wouldn't want to lay juice on either of these ladies.

Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Askar Askarov (+170): Pantoja by decision

I believe the strength and wrestling departments would be Askarov's only real advantages. Pantoja's grappling is better and more dangerous though, so I don't think Askarov would have a lot of success with the wrestling. On the feet, I have to favor Pantoja. He is going to be the faster and more active striker. He could even get takedowns of his own and is live for a submission if the fight hits the mat.

Roman Dolidze (-190) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (+160): Dolidze by TKO

I have not been impressed at all with Ibragimov, and this seems like a match made in order to get Dolidze a win and Ibragimov his pink slip. Dolidze doesn't even look that good, but he does have big power, and Ibragimov is sort of a punching bag. Ibragimov might be able to win this fight on volume if it goes to the judges, but Dolidze probably will knock him out at some point. I don't see either guy sticking around in the UFC for long, however.

Grant Dawson (-240) vs. Nad Narimani (+200): Narimani by decision

This will be another fun one, and I expect it to be pretty high-paced. Narimani is the better striker with more power, and the better wrestler of the two as well. Dawson is the higher-paced fighter - especially early - who loves to grapple, but those are the only edges I would give him. His style is great enough to beat a lot of guys, but I think Narimani is going to cause some issues, and I don't see Dawson being able to get the fight to the ground as easily as he has been of late. Narimani has what it takes to keep this fight on the feet more than Dawson likes and maybe take him the distance, slowing him down as the fight goes on. I think this is dog or pass, and I am going to pick Narimani to get his hand raised.

Joe Duffy (-360) vs. Joel Alvarez (+280): Duffy by decision

The line might be a bit high on this one, considering Duffy has been thinking about retirement. But stylistically, I do think he is the better fighter everywhere. I don't think he blows Alvarez out of the water anywhere, but I do give him the striking, wrestling and grappling advantages, so I have to lean with him as my pick. I would just be cautious with parlays at this price, but I am going to take Duffy to edge him out.

Brett Johns (+175) vs. Montel Jackson (-210): Jackson by decision

This should be a main-card fight because both are high-level fighters, and I believe Jackson is a future champion. I love the striking from Jackson, who is going to be the bigger guy in a lot of his fights. He has great wrestling as well, so I think this kid is the full package. Johns is legit on the ground though, and he could give Jackson problems by either putting him on his back multiple times or possibly even getting a submission. Those are the only two ways I see him winning, and Jackson might even be the better wrestler of the two. I do expect Jackson to clearly win the striking exchanges though, and he probably is my favorite parlay piece on this card.

Malcolm Gordon (+160) vs. Amir Albazi (-190): Gordon by submission

I was impressed with the grappling from both of these fighters. I watched Albazi first, and I was pretty sure I was going to pick him because his wrestling and grappling look solid. Then I watched Gordon and thought the same thing about him. I expect it to be very grappling-heavy and will just come down to who gets the dominant positions. I would favor Gordon on the feet though, so that makes this a dog-or-pass fight for me. I do expect it to be a fun grappling match though.

Davi Ramos (+175) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-210): Ramos by decision

I like a lot of underdogs on this card, and Ramos is one of them. Tsarukyan has the higher ceiling in the UFC and could even compete for the title one day. He is only 23 years old though, and Ramos is a very tough matchup and not a guy with which you want to be messing around on the ground. Ramos might be the more dangerous of the two, especially early. I think he is more likely to finish and Tsaryukyan more likely to win a decision, but I believe Ramos is live to win the first two rounds as well. If this was an evenly lined fight, I would just take the prospect, but at these odds, this is dog or pass, so I will take Ramos.

Carlos Felipe (+130) vs. Serghei Spivac (-155): Felipe by TKO

Felipe hasn't fought in three years, but he looks like a guy who is going to go out there and hunt for the knockout from the start. I would think Spivac has a big edge in the clinch and on the ground, but Felipe looks like he could be difficult to get to the mat. If Felipe doesn't get the KO, he probably loses this fight, and not knowing what his cardio will be like, I think Spivac could finish if he gets the fight to the mat. However, I am taking shots on a bunch of underdogs on this card, so I will take the newcomer to get a first-round KO.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Jul 18 '20, 8:13 PM in 2h
NASCAR | Christian Eckes vs Brett Moffitt
Play on: Christian Eckes -125 at 5Dimes

1 Dimer on Christian Eckes -125