Service Plays Wednesday 7/22/20

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XS Sports Picks KBO

5* SK Wyverns -135

5* SK Wyverns -1.5 +135

5* Doosan Bears Over 10.5 -115

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Saratoga - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#7 Tenderfoot
Price player takes the big MSW drop for a patient Wilkes barn, goes second off the long layoff too, and catches a field with plenty of speed; spotted to score.


#8 Lost in Rome
Class riser was a fast 2nd for the 20k level last time, adds blinkers for a bit more focus, and won't need to improve much to play with these; major player.


#6 Yankee Empire
Stalker was a solid 2nd at the level last time, should sit the right trip a bit off all the speed, and is another who will offer a square price; contention runs deep.


Race Summary
You should get fair value on the pick, as there are plenty here who will get bet, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since you could surmise this was the plan Wilkes had in mind all along, and that he's primed to fire a lifetime best, which might be all it takes to beat this group.


Saratoga - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#2 Crack Shot
Speedster ran off then tired off the long break last time, but the prep is now behind him, so he should be tighter, and he has a big tactical edge on the heavy chalk; come catch the pick.


#8 Maxwell Empire
Aforementioned heavy favorite was just a closing 4th in a stakes, so he's getting bet hard here, but that was far and away his best, and the rest aren't any great shakes; backwheel time.


#3 Inside Info
Class riser goes back to the turf off the Rice claim (24%), for a barn that has starrted the meet white hot, and the lone turf run was a route, so he could wake up here; exotics price appeal.


Race Summary
You'll get a hint of a price on the 2 because they will go overboard on the 8, and you can easily see the former moving forward off the comeback, while the latter regresses a bit off the breakthrough run, not to mention he's always at the mercy of the pace too, and now shortens up here, so play 'Shot aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use his number to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will likely be singling 'Empire, even though there may be a few chinks in his armor.


Saratoga - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#6 Gaelic Gold
Dangerous sort was in against open foes at Tampa and was a closing 6th, and now she drops in against NYBs for a Clement barn that is white hot to start the meet; look out.


#1 Madison Parc
The chalk was another facing open MSW runners, at SA and CD no less, so this is a huge drop, and the turf debut, her lone grass start, was a big 4th; clearly the one to beat.


#8 Unicorn Sally
Longshot got back with friends off the break and closed nicely to be 4th at Bel last time, and while this is a tougher group, her stretch run makes her a player late; can get a piece.


Race Summary
It looks like a class play here between the 1 and 6, and the former has more appeal since the barn has been having a banner year and is firing early at the meet, plus she'll be a better price too, so play her in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since 5-1 seems like a ton of value, and just maybe you sneak close to it out in what is a deep field where a lot of them look similar on paper.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 Five Green Stars
Even comeback run on the dirt, but his back form on the turf is where the good form sits. It's obviously a question of what he has left in the tank at age 10, but he's worth a price look on the turf return if he offers double digits.


#2 Elwood's Advice
Posted a nice win last out on the turf with a softer bunch, but there are a couple of suspect players in here who will get bet, and this guy has as good a chance as any.


#9 Clickjab
Has never been much on turf, but he brings the best recent form to this. That said, all that form came on the dirt, and he's probably getting bet again here.


Race Summary
This is a tough spot where ML favorite #4 Wickets Way can win, but his form is all over the place and dirt is his best game. Five Green Stars has plenty of questions to answer today, but a fair price would make it interesting to find out just how much of that back turf form he can dig to find.


Mountaineer - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 Less Than Perfect
Tailed off at the end of 2019 and hasn't inspired any confidence yet in a pair of 2020 starts, but perhaps a change of scenery from Tampa will give him a chance to wake up with plenty of back turf runs that'd make him tough here. Early double of price players finding some back turf form?


#3 Dragunov
Has always done his best work on the grass, so much of that poor form on his page becomes pretty excusable. He can get a tactical trip on the hike and owns races good enough to be in the mix.


#1 Anechoic
Inside pace probably has to go, and though he won his only turf start, he probably has a little bit of company lined up with him in the early stages today.


Race Summary
Less Than Perfect has some chance to bounce back off a couple of dull Tampa turf tries, and the price will be right to hope he bounces back here in a somewhat suspect race.


Mountaineer - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#7 Lovin Machen
Forward player goes second off the layoff after flashing pace and fading in the comeback run. Always willing to give speed horses a pass for a fading comeback run, so this filly might be worth the look today.


#2 Shezagoldgetter
Tactical type has had eight chances and always seems to be in the right spot. Still, he hasn't won a race, and will take some cash here while being no sure thing to seal the deal tonight.


#4 Ultra Diva
Debuter doesn't meet a super strong group, so it'd be no surprise to see her win right out of the box today.


Race Summary
Loving Machen has every right to stick around better today with the last run under her belt, and there isn't a whole lot in here to be afraid of. A couple of those 2019 tries would be good enough to land this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#6 BILLION DOLLAR DAY
Figures close-up throughout, use in all gimmick wagers at 5-1 on morning line.


#4 HILARIOUS LOU
Exits fast heat, gets class relief, seeks fourth win of the year.


#1 BOBBIES POWER PLAY
Tired in well-backed return at this level, has speed and the rail.


Race Summary
Billion Dollar Day, winless in nine starts this year, carried his speed to the stretch but settled for another minor award. He can use his speed well in this field and offers good betting value with second-time Lasix. Play 6-1 and 6-4 exactas.


Northfield Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 FRIGGUN FAST
Rallied from far back in win at this level, went well until mishap in follow-up.


#3 HIT IT MAESTRO
No match against three-peat winner, no excuse in this field.


#7 RIDEWITHTHEDEVIL
Led and faded in return, had excuses in last pair, switches pilots again.


Race Summary
Friggun Fast overcame early interference and caught the 6-to-5 favorite at this level two starts back. He raced close-up to the stretch before he broke stride against better last week. His trainer takes the driving reigns tonight, which should yield maximum betting value.


Northfield Park - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 IRISH ART
Can make good use of his speed in this spot, lures Wrenn.


#5 ARRHYTHMIC SURGE
Reversed form, blew past 1-to-5 fave, continued strong on gallop-out.


#6 ZIP ZIP WILL
Burned serious money out of town, starts fresh in new barn, had useful qualifier.


Race Summary
Irish Art, far back against better last week, is a major player with tonight with speed, an inner post and Wrenn in the bike. He led until the stretch two starts ago against a 1-to-9 winner at Buffalo. Play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#2 Strollin the Bayou
Gave way in the final furlong of her latest vs. much better at Churchill Downs and likely will get back to good form on the class drop; can carve out a good trip and looms as the one to beat.


#4 Miss Mercken
Has yet to pan out as a good claiming but the drop in class could move her up here; she has had some quality turf performances and could be a level at which she can succeed.


#3 Monkey Mind
Was in good position and faltered to fourth late in her first local starter; capable of improving in her second over the course.


Race Summary
Strollin the Bayou moves from Churchill and her class level is more than cut in half; Foley barn still look for her win under its care and looks to have found a good spot for her.


Indiana Grand - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Sacred Kiki Bird
Was up in time for a N3L state-bred allowance steps down to Indy claimers; was twice claimed at Oaklawn this year and the Garcia stable is perfect with him, having won their only start with him.


#5 Merocketman
Ran evenly in his 1st since November and has been in some good allowance races; can improve in his second of the year.


#8 Rooster
Comes out of much tougher races recently has had a good chance to turn around his currently ailing form; was in good races last year.


Race Summary
Sacred Kiki Bird has been in several barns and has been in decent state-bred races; fits with these.


Indiana Grand - Race #9


Picks
Notes


#7 Fancy Creole Queen
Has won two straight since a lost in her first one and will be tough if she can run back to her trial win.


#8 Lone Cartel
Lost by a nose last time and can improve from running on the outside; could break his maiden in this spot.


#2 Shez Bodacious
Was a clear trial winner and was third in her first of the year; can be a big player again.


Race Summary
Fancy Creole Queen was up in time in her firs one at Indiana after a maiden win at Remington Park; one to catch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew McInnis

KBO best bet (4%)
Game: (304619) Lotte Giants at (304620) SK Wyverns
Date/Time: Jul 22 2020 5:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: SK Wyverns -125

View Analysis

SK Wyverns -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Jul 22 '20, 3:45 PM in 7h
Soccer | Verona vs Torino
Play on: Verona +215 at Bovada

1* Free Pick on Verona +215

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park



Mountaineer Park - Race 6

$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 6-9) $.50 Wheel



Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $6,900 • Post: 8:50P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 22, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. CRISIS AVERTED is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRESTONS PRINCESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/sur face. ARCH LEGACY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CRISIS AVERTED: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average wi nning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TOUCH OF EMMA: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.



7

PRESTONS PRINCESS

7/2


4/1




5

ARCH LEGACY

5/2


9/2




3

CRISIS AVERTED

8/1


6/1




6

TOUCH OF EMMA

2/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

PRESTONS PRINCESS

7


7/2

Front-runner

75


68


69.6


57.8


52.8




5

ARCH LEGACY

5


5/2

Front-runner

69


61


67.4


52.6


49.6




3

CRISIS AVERTED

3


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

73


58


47.8


52.6


44.1




6

TOUCH OF EMMA

6


2/1

Trailer

75


61


40.4


60.6


55.6




2

LADY PANTHER

2


5/1

Trailer

62


53


14.8


47.2


36.7




1

CHARLIES WATCHIN

1


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


34.3


20.5


8.0




4

CHARLIES HOT

4


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

68


44


26.4


45.6


35.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 7

Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Super High Five



Optional Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 5:49P


(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 1 MILE AND70 YARDS)





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SILVER SIREN is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * SABE MARCELETE: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MY PEPPER ANN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BELLA CAJUN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FORGOTTEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power R ating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



1

SABE MARCELETE

5/1


9/2




9

MY PEPPER ANN

3/1


5/1




5

BELLA CAJUN

4/1


6/1




8

FORGOTTEN

8/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

SILVER SIREN

7


10/1

Front-runner

63


50


40.8


41.7


27.2




5

BELLA CAJUN

5


4/1

Alternator/Stalker

80


76


62.3


71.1


60.6




2

GAL

2


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

71


58


50.0


53.3


40.3




8

FORGOTTEN

8


8/1

Trailer

83


81


69.6


71.8


62.8




1

SABE MARCELETE

1


5/1

Trailer

81


78


66.8


77.0


72.5




9

MY PEPPER ANN

9


3/1

Trailer

80


80


61.4


72.0


68.0




3

LIL ASHLEY B.

3


12/1

Trailer

54


51


44.9


31.4


16.4




4

TOODALOO TO YOU

4


4/1

Alternator/Non-contender

74


65


59.5


68.0


58.5




6

GIRL THIRSTY

6


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

72


65


39.8


58.8


49.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12700 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 8 SILVER SPUN 6/1




# 7 HOOCHIECOOCHIE SAM 25/1




# 1 CANDY CON 10/1




I've got to go with SILVER SPUN. He has posted very good figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this group of horses. With Zenteno getting the mount, watch out for this equine. Is a solid contender - given the 78 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. HOOCHIECOOCHIE SAM - Has performed admirably lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 81 avg speed figure. CANDY CON - Is a contender - given the 79 speed fig from his most recent race. Conditioner has strong win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#5 CARNEGIE SONG (ML=2/1)


CARNEGIE SONG - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Belmont Park. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FIELD OFFICER (ML=9/5), #3 ODDS ARE (ML=5/2), #1 HURACAN (ML=6/1),

FIELD OFFICER - Hard to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. ODDS ARE - No value in making a bet on this entrant. Probably won't improve off that Jul 13th race. HURACAN - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance affairs recently. Not likely to see him doing it in today's event either. If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Don't believe this horse will make an impact today. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 CARNEGIE SONG to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Lone Star Park - Race #8 - Post: 5:15pm - Stakes - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 84 Lane's End Danny Shifflett Scholarship S.

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#8 SHES OUR FASTEST (ML=5/2)
#1 CORLUNA (ML=3/1)


SHES OUR FASTEST - The jockey/trainer twosome of Diego and Gelner has a strong return on investment together. This entrant obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has earned the highest speed rating on the grass at the distance-surface. I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always in the money. The Jun 14th race at Lone Star Park was at a class level of (92). Dropping down the ladder based on class drastically, so she should be in a good spot. CORLUNA - I surely see good things for this mount right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HERBS LOVE (ML=2/1), #6 EATON'S MEMORY (ML=8/1),

HERBS LOVE - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued contestant. EATON'S MEMORY - Doesn't look to be in a satisfactory situation in today's event.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#8 SHES OUR FASTEST is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

8 with 1 with [2,4,7] Total Cost: $3



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 12 CFV DUCHESS 4/1




# 7 MG MACHO BOY 9/2




# 1 HF WILLIE CATCH ME 10/1




My selection in here is CFV DUCHESS. Formidable average Equibase speed figs in short races make this equine a solid choice. Has very strong early pace and should fare solidly versus this group. Recorded a formidable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. MG MACHO BOY - Strong profits have been scored by bettors using this jockey and trainer duo lately. Has been running solidly lately and should be on or close to the lead early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga



07/22/20, SAR, Race 8, 4.46 ET
07/22/20,SAR,8,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $74,000. (UP TO $12,876 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners of a race other than Claiming or Starter at a mile or over Allowed 2 lbs. (Non-starters For A Claiming Price Of $25,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, races for Three-Year-Olds and Olderwill be run at One Mile and One Eighth and Two-Year-Old races will be run at Seven Furlongs on the Main Track). (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
7
Foolish Ghost
5-1
Ortiz J L
Brown Bruce R.


33.33
1.73/$1


099.6883
6
La Hara (IRE)
2-1
Rosario J
Brown Chad C.
FEC
57.14
1.39/$1


099.0373
3
Colonel Liam
6-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Pletcher Todd A.
JL
34.15
1.08/$1


098.6265
5
Gauguin (GER)
4-1
Alvarado J
Mott William I.


34.15
1.08/$1


098.5532
2
Wild Medagliad'oro
5/2
Velazquez J R
Casse Mark E.


34.15
1.08/$1


097.2145
8
Junkanoo
12-1
Gaffalione T
Brown Chad C.


34.15
1.08/$1


096.8884
1
Southern Bridge
15-1
Castellano J
Mott William I.
W
27.19
0.94/$1


095.1785
4
Smile Bryan
9/2
Ortiz J L
Motion H. Graham


32.00
1.07/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.88, ROI 0.50/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.0000
6
La Hara (IRE)
2-1
Rosario J
Brown Chad C.
FEC
39.33
1.32/$1


098.5030
7
Foolish Ghost
5-1
Ortiz J L
Brown Bruce R.


45.00
1.92/$1


098.3953
8
Junkanoo
12-1
Gaffalione T
Brown Chad C.


39.33
1.32/$1


098.2207
3
Colonel Liam
6-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Pletcher Todd A.
JL
39.33
1.32/$1


098.0186
5
Gauguin (GER)
4-1
Alvarado J
Mott William I.


45.00
1.92/$1


097.6792
1
Southern Bridge
15-1
Castellano J
Mott William I.
W
43.21
1.54/$1


097.3694
2
Wild Medagliad'oro
5/2
Velazquez J R
Casse Mark E.
S
39.33
1.32/$1


094.0147
4
Smile Bryan
9/2
Ortiz J L
Motion H. Graham


45.00
1.92/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 23.81, ROI 0.63/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Saratoga Pick & Soccer play 7/22

Wed Jul 22, 2020
Hit AC Milan but lost the Horse pick yesterday. Here's another soccer play and a Saratoga race.

100* UC Sampdoria +145

Saratoga Race 2
#3 Box Of Chocolates $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-7-5

[golden contender]

Hump Day card has a Rare Platinum Supreme Top play in Brazil Soccer league, MLS Soccer and an MLB Opening Day System Play. Serie A League Comp Play below.

The Soccer play is on Napoli in the Napoli at Parma Calcio match at 1:30 eastern. Both team have injury issues. Napoli pulled a big win in extra time last out securing a 2-1 win over Udinese in a game they controlled the whole way. They are in 6th place in serie A league. They are solid against a Parma team that has terrible current form at 0-5-1 over the last 6. Parma will most likely have to make do without Matteo Scozzarella and Juraj Kucka once again, while top scorer Andreas Cornelius remains a doubt with a muscular problem. Bruno Alves has also struggled with an injury recently and is not expected to play. Napoli wins this one. On Wednesday we have another Powerful card led by a Brazilian League Open ended Platinum Supreme Play and another MLS league Play. We also have our first MLB System Play that is up now for Thursday. See us on facebook to jump on. For the Free Play. Go with Napoli. RV- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Jul 22 '20, 8:30 PM in 8h
Soccer | Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Play on: Corinthians +245 at 5Dimes

FREE PLAY on Corinthians +245

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Jul 22 '20, 8:05 PM in 44m
NBA | Kings vs Heat
Play on: UNDER 18½ -110

Free Total Annihilator On Kings vs Heat under 18½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Jul 22 '20, 8:05 PM in 44m
NBA | Kings vs Heat
Play on: Heat -2½ -108 at pinnacle

1* on Heat -2½ -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies for 7/22/20 July 22, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 PT. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Wicksters Dream; 3-Box of Chocolates; 5-Star of the West

Forecast: Star of the West was waiver protected when he crushed a maiden $20,000 field in early June with a good speed figure that quite frankly that may have been inflated due to a soft front-running trip. The Flashback colt is raised to the restricted (nw-2) $40,000 level today while switching to I. Ortiz, Jr. in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence, so in a treacherous affair with lots of question marks the R. Rodriguez-trained colt at least appears to be healthy and well-meant. Box of Chocolates is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and has speed figures that are good enough. However, he is just one-for-16 lifetime (with eight seconds and thirds) and is dropping off a $50,000 claim in his first outing since mid-May, though this barn’s record with the first-off-the-claim angle (31% with a massive flat-bet profit) certainly does not make the maneuver suspicious. More concerning is the Candy Ride gelding’s lack of tactical speed that requires racing luck and some help up front to enable his best chance. Wicksters Dream broke his maiden like a decent prospect 10 months ago in Florida, but the 3-year-old son of New Year’s Day returns in a claimer, so his connections obviously don’t view him optimistically in the long term. The workouts at Monmouth Park seem good enough to have him fit but the fact that he’s not being protected in, say, a soft first-level allowance race on his own circuit, hardly inspires confidence. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two but not much more than that.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Cross Border

Forecast: Cross Border just failed to see out the 10 furlong trip when establishing the pace but weakening close home in a fifth place finish, beaten just a length, in the much tougher Manhattan S.-G1 last month but this state-bred restricted affair looks made to order. Probably most effective as a second flight stalker, the son of English Channel should have no trouble securing that type of trip from his favorable rail draw in a race that features of committed front-running types. Being a perfect three-for-three over the local lawn is another strong positive factor, so it all adds up to a very short price similar to his morning line of 50 cents on the dollar. You can use the M. Maker-trained ridgling as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Breithorn; 8-Lost in Rome

Forecast: Lost in Rome shows rising speed figures with each outing, so despite the raise from maiden $20,000 to this maiden $40,000 affair the R. Klesaris-trained son of Tale of Ekati seems well-spotted to earn a diploma. The main concern isn’t the tougher assignment (it’s really not that tough) but the gelding’s sluggish-from-the-gate style, though the addition of blinkers and a cozy outside post could have a positive impact on his tactical speed. Breithorn, in his second start off a layoff, shows up in a seller for the first time, removes blinkers, returns to the main track and sports a bullet workout over the Saratoga training track (4f, :49b, fastest of 11) last week to indicate he’s fit and healthy. The rail draw at this six furlong distance might be problematic, but if he can secure a decent trip the son of Into Mischief could easily justify his 5/2 morning line favorite assignment. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics, with a very slight edge on top to Lost in Rome.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Crack Shot; 8-Maxwell Esquire

Forecast: Maxwell Esquire earned a career top speed figure when rallying late to be fourth (beaten just under three lengths) in the much tougher Sir Cat S. last month at Belmont Park and on paper looks logical as the 6/5 morning line favorite. While this abbreviated five-and-one-half furlong trip would seem to be a tad sharp, the son of Discreet Cat has the tools to be an effective late running sprinter in a field that on paper contains enough early speed to compliment his style. That said, short-priced favorites that are pace and trip dependent aren’t good gambles and this colt seems unlikely to offer any real wagering value due to his red-hot connections (C. Clement/J. Rosario). Those looking for an alternative are certain to consider Crack Shot, a second-off-a-layoff play for J. Englehart (terrific stats with this angle) with a prior win over this course and distance and showing the always-enticing blinkers off angle from a good inside draw. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. Ortiz takes the call, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s certain to receive plenty of attention in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Single: 8-Summer Bourbon

Forecast: Summer Bourbon, a veteran with a history of being hard-knocking and consistent, has finished first or second in 16 of 40 career starts and returns to his claim (and winning level) while being reunited with “win rider” F. Alvarado and showing two easy breezes for his first start off a five week freshening. In a race that projects to have as softer-than-average early pace, the R. Rodriguez-trained gelding should find himself comfortably placed outside just off the pace and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. In a race in which the other main player, Eye Luv Lulu, was scratched, we’ll take a stand and single the son of Ghostzapper with the hope that he’ll regain his best form against this easier company.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B
Single: 10-Sainte Mere Eglise

Forecast: Sainte Mere Eglise is a fresh face with winning credentials in this maiden state-bred middle distance turf event, so let’s take a stand in what otherwise appears to be a somewhat messy affair. The Noble Mission filly returns off an 11-month layoff after displaying some potential in her only outing when a late-charging runner-up (beaten almost five lengths but more than two lengths clear of the rest) in a pretty good maiden state-bred juvenile filly affair over the local lawn behind English Breeze, who subsequently placed in two open stakes events. The work tab isn’t fancy but should have her fit enough for capable connections, and with the presence of I. Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle the T. Bush-trained sophomore looks to have more potential than the other main players, most of whom have been thoroughly exposed. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Wild Medagliad’oro; 6-La Hara

Forecast: The pace flow in this first-level allowance middle distance turf event should be better than average and projects to favor the come-backing La Hara, unbeaten in a pair of grass outings last summer while earning speed figures that are good enough to beat this first-level allowance field. We’ll assume he’s fit and ready – the C. Brown barn hits at a remarkable 29% with this angle – and with the presence of hot-riding J. Rosario in the saddle the 4-year-old son of Dansili is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and seems certain to be a strongly-backed favorite. This is clearly a tougher bunch than he faced last year, first in a maiden $40,000 affair and then in a starter’s allowance event, but the fact that he returns protected indicates his connections are confident he’s returning as well as he left. For protection, you may want to consider as a back-up Wild Medagliad’oro, a need-the-lead type who projects as the controlling speed, though we suspect that he’ll be under some pressure most of the way. Third with a career top speed figure in a state-bred stakes last month at Gulfstream Park when facing a field of tough, veteran pros, he clearly gets an easier assignment today and on pure numbers the M. Casse could be tough to run down if he can secure his preferred trip.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sharp Starr; 7-Eloquent Speaker; 8-Singular Sensation

Forecast: Eloquent Speaker is a lightly-raced and progressive filly stretching out to nine furlongs in this first-level allowance main track affair for state-bred fillies and mares and we’re hopeful the added distance will be within her reach. The daughter of Flatter was a visually pleasing maiden winner sprinting last time out in a race in which the runner-up came back to win her next race by seven lengths, and with four nice workouts since that mid-June event, including a bullet blowout (4f, :48.3b, fastest of 18) six days ago the J. Englehart-trained filly seems set to produce another significant step forward. Singular Sensation was beaten a neck over this track and distance at this level last year while almost 10 lengths clear of the rest, and anything close to that type of effort today will make her very difficult to beat. She had a right to be a bit rusty when a distant second in her comeback last month over a one-turn mile at Belmont Park, but with that tightener behind her the M. Hennig-trained filly should be able to get over from her outside draw and secure a comfortable pace-stalking trip be and then be in a position to do some damage at the head of the lane. With A. P. Indy on the bottom side of her pedigree, Sharp Starr should be able to handle two turns, and at this nine-furlong trip the daughter of Munnings may be capable of building on her recent one-turn mile maiden win that produced a career top speed figure. She couldn’t get close to Eloquent Speaker when they met sprinting two races back but the H. DePaz-trained 3-year-old appears to be a better type now and is worth inclusion in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Central Perk

Forecast: Central Perk looks quite intriguing in this maiden $25,000 New-York bred extended sprint for fillies and mares due to a number of angles and factors. She’s dropping out of much tougher straight maiden company for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters (26%), she has the route-to-sprint angle that we always like, she’s adding blinkers (which may be the catalyst to a pace-pressing trip) and despite being beaten more than 17 lengths earned a buried speed figure that taken at face value makes her highly competitive at this level. The stable is off to a flying start at a meeting, so with “go to” rider J. Lezcano staying aboard the daughter of Central Banker looks extremely live and well-meant. Let’s make the L. Rice-trained sophomore a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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