Service Plays Friday 7/24/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Dr. Chuck

5% MLB Covid Quarantine Crusher

Oakland Athletics -145

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Rob Veno

MLB Over/Under Win Totals

4% Cardinals under 31.5
3% Braves under 33.5

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Peter Kahn

Boxing

He is an astounding 15-0 on SportsLine boxing picks since the hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic, including an 8-0 sweep this month that extended his highly profitable run.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Samuel Vargas

Golden Boy Promotions is back on July 24 from Fantasy Springs Casino in California streamed live on DAZN.

Rising superstar and soon to be world title contender Vergil Ortiz Jr. (15-0, 15KOs) is fighting Samuel Vargas (31-5-2, 14KOs) in the headline bout. Vargas has been in with big names such as Errol Spence, Jr, Danny Garcia, Amir Khan and Luis Collazo. His only stoppage losses have come against Spence and Garcia.

It's not a matter of who is going to win, but more so how long Vargas can hang on against Ortiz Jr. There is absolutely no line value here since Ortiz Jr is going to win this fight. With 15 knockouts in 15 fights, the 22-year-old Ortiz Jr is still growing as a fighter. The battle-worn 31-year-old Vargas will be a good test as to where Ortiz Jr.'s boxing IQ is vs. a more experienced opponent. Still, look for Ortiz Jr to overwhelm Vargas.

I'm calling for a fifth-round knockout win.

Hector Tanajara (-1600) vs. Mercito Gesta (+900)

Undefeated up-and-coming 5'10" Hector Tanajara (19-0, 5KOs) is taking on veteran Filipino southpaw Mercito Gesta (32-3-3, 17 KOs) in a lightweight bout. A two-time world title loser, Gesta just can't get the win in a big fight. His losses to Miguel Vazquez in 2012 and Jorge Linares in 2018 show that when he gets in big fights, he's not able to pull off the win.

I was ringside in California when he lost to Juan Antonio Rodriguez by KO in 2019 in an upset and even with the veteran Freddie Roach in his corner, Gesta just didn't look sharp and seemed to run out of gas. Although he's only 32 years old, it could be wear and tear that is Gesta's biggest enemy right now.

Tanajara, on the other hand, is a rising prospect from Texas looking to catapult himself into contender status with a win over the much smaller 5'7" Gesta, who is giving up seven inches in reach along with the three inches in height to Tanajara. Tanajara's record illustrates he's a boxer and not a puncher, so look for him to keep the underdog on the end of his punches all night as Tanajara cruises to a ten-round decision victory for this WBC regional lightweight title that will help Tanajara move up in the world rankings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

baseball33

Cleveland Indians -2

[golden contender]

Friday card has Opening Day MLB Power Plays backed with game 1 specific database systems and The French League Soccer total of the year headlining. MLB Comp Play below



The MLB Comp Play for Friday is on the NY. Mets. Game 952 at 4:10 eastern. The Mets are the best opening day team winning 38 of the last 50 and all 4 vs the Braves. Nice Historical data. However the biggest reasons we like the Mets chances is they they fit 2 league Wide systems. One is to play on game 1 home favorites who had a worse record than their opponent last year. These teams are 39-19 long term. Also home favorites from -125-175 are a nice 48-16 with a nice return on investment. The Mets have the Degrominator on the Mound and he threw a side session on Tuesday and the back is good to go. The Mets have dropped 7 of his 8 starts at home vs the Braves and that has to turn around at some point since Jakes numbers v the Braves are solid. The Braves were swept here in September and Soroka has lost 4 of his last 5 road starts. We will back the Mets today. On Friday we have a Double system Dominator out west and a french Soccer Total of the Year leading the way. See us or on facebook to jump on. Rob V- GC Sports

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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar/Saratoga Wagering Strategies - 7/24/20 July 24, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar/Saratoga
Friday, July 24, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Third Race – Post Time: 3:00 PT
3 – Border Town (2-1)
Broke slowly, lost position and couldn’t make any impact into an unfavorable race-shape when a non-threatening sixth in the American S.-G2 at Santa Anita last time out but should regain his winning form today with this drop in class and the stretch-out in trip. With Sadler’s Wells on the bottom side of his pedigree the son of War Front should have no difficulty handling this mini-marathon trip, so with F. Prat staying aboard the R. Mandella-trained colt looks solid at or near his morning line of 2-1.
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Fifth Race – Post Time: 4:00 PT
9-Bulletproof One (9/2)
Winless is three tries on grass but looked superb in a quick blowout around dogs over the local lawn five days ago (3f, :34.4h) and catches field without her kind of speed in this five furlong dash for second-level allowance fillies and mares. The P. Miller-trained filly is reunited with “win rider” R. Gonzalez and from her outside draw should be capable of popping to the lead and taking her rivals gate to wire. At 9/2 on the morning like she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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Today’s Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Hands Up;5-Assume

Forecast: Originally a $300,000 yearling purchase and clearly being culled from the stable, Assume shows up in a modest maiden $20,000 claimer after flashing speed but fading in three outings at Gulfstream Park vs. maiden special weight company. The daughter of Candy Ride certainly has numbers that can win but at 4/5 on the morning line won’t be offering any wagering value. Hands Up is another plummeting in class. Runner-up in a maiden $75,000 affair two runs back at Churchill Downs, the daughter of Distorted Humor shortens to six furlongs and projects to be on or near a modest early pace. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both can be used in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kinky Sox; 2-Overtime Olivia

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this restricted (nw-3) $14,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Kinky Sox was more than five lengths clear of the rest when a good runner-up in a similar affair at Belmont Park earlier this month and a repeat of that race today should be more than good enough. The lightly-raced 6-year-old mare will need to avoid trouble from the rail – she’s always sluggish early and could get smothered in traffic – but with clear sailing the daughter of Girolamo looks capable of producing the last run. Overtime Olivia returns to the main track and clearly is the controlling speed. Nosed out in the final strides in this type of race two runs back, the veteran daughter of Rule will take them as far as she can.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Peaceful; 6-Voting Agreement

Forecast: Peaceful was almost five lengths clear of the rest when cutting out the fractions and then being worn down late in a fast turf sprint at Belmont Park last month. She shortens up a half-furlong today and can be effective on the front end or from a second flight, stalking position. We know she likes this course – she broke her maiden here last year – and with a nice, easy breeze at Fair Hill last week to tick her over the daughter of Declaration of War should be tough to beat in this first-level allowance grass dash for fillies and mares. Voting Agreement graduated over this course and distance last year in her 2-year-old debut but then was turned out. She returned a bit rusty when third as the favorite in a similar allowance grass dash at Belmont Park last month and has a right to move forward today for the C. Brown barn (30% with the second-off-a-layoff angle). The daughter of More Than Ready will be doing her best work late. We’ll prefer Peaceful on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Stay Fond; 8-Blunt Force

Forecast: Churchill Downs invader Blunt Force projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip from her cozy outside draw in this extended sprint for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares and can take this slight class hike in stride with a repeat of her nice win last month that produced a career top speed figure. She’s also a two-time winner at this seven furlong trip and sports a healthy work tab since raced. Stay Fond remains above her claim level in her second-off-a-layoff after capturing a waiver-protected $10,000 seller at Belmont Park earlier this month. A winner of eight races from 32 career starts, the veteran Stay Thirsty mare represents the best of the closing types. We’ll give Blunt Force the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Raffinity; 9-Saborella

Forecast: Samborella brought $500,000 as a yearling and has trained like she’s ready to win right now after breezing five furlongs from the gate over a muddy Saratoga main track last week in :59 flat. The barn is solid with first-timers and this filly, from the first crop of the promising Uncle Mo stallion Outwork, is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and could easily go lower. Another intriguing debut runner, Raffinity, isn’t bred to sprint and could find this five and one-half furlong trip too sharp, but the work tab looks interesting and we wouldn’t be surprised to see her produce a favorable impression, probably from off the pace. While the bulk of the action should go to favorite, this $70,000 yearling by Tonalilst is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Elle M’a Souri; 6-Coilean Bawn; 9-Cap de Creus

Forecast: This mini-marathon first-level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares has three legitimate possibilities, topped by even money favorite Cap de Creus. Certainly she win and we know she’ll handle the trip, but the daughter Tapit is working on a three-race losing streak when sent off as the favorite and in fact is just 1-for-14 during her career with six second-place finishes. We’ll use her, of course, but also include a pair of middle-priced runners that may offer better value. Elle M’a Souri is a lightly-raced French-bred filly fresh from breaking her maiden over nine furlongs on grass with a career-top speed figure at Churchill Downs in late May while giving every indication that she’ll continue to improve as the distances increase. Drawn nicely inside and therefore guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip, she retains regular rider T. Gaffalione and seems better than her morning line of 6-1 gives her credit for. Coilean Bawn finally earned her diploma in her ninth career start last month at Belmont Park, stalking easy splits and then quickening through the lane to be up in time with a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back. She should very much enjoy this mile and one-three furlong journey, and if that weren’t enough she has the scorching hot jockey/trainer combo of J. Rosario/C. Clement in her corner. She’s easily likeable at or near her morning line of 5-1.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Magnolia’s Lady; 8-Snicket

Forecast: Snicket has been a beaten choice in her last pair, both times finishing second, and may be a tad hard to trust in this state-bred maiden turf dash for fillies and mares. However, that bit of concern may be negated by the fact that the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid hails from the C. Clement barn, which seems to be winning with just about everything so far this meeting, and will be ridden by the stable’s main guy, J. Rosario. Magnolia’s Lady is a legitimate contender and the one to fear most. Steadily improving with racing and with a good stalking style that should give her every chance from the quarter pole home, the L. Rice-trained daughter of Freud just finished third in the same race Snicket exits and may have a bit more room to improve.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Free Enterprise; 9-Strike That

Forecast: Strike That was no match for Volatile when a distant second at Oaklawn Park in April, but there may be few sprinters in North America who could have done much better. With Volatile on his way to bigger and better things (he’ll be odds-on tomorrow in the Vanderbilt S.-G1) this lightly-raced gelding should be able to regain his winning form in this competitive second-level allowance main track sprint. The R. Diodoro-trained son of Biondetti is drawn comfortably outside and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip, and a repeat of his race-before-last should be good enough. Free Enterprise has run well over this track in the past (second in both outings) and has back speed figures that make him dangerous. He’s been beaten as the choice in his last pair but gets off the rail today and should be prominent throughout. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Strike That.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Jack and Noah; 8-Turned Aside

Forecast: Jack and Noah and Turned Aside, one-two finishers in the listed Sir Cat S. at Belmont Park last month, hook up again in today’s Quick Call S.-G3 at the slightly shorter five and one-half furlong trip. ‘Noah should be the controlling speed again and will be very hard to catch if he shows up with his “A” game, but at even money on the morning line there’s not much you can do with him. ‘Aside will be running on strongly late but will need all the help he can get up front to reverse the result of their last meeting. You can consider using him as a saver or a back-up on your rolling exotic ticket while strongly preferring Jack and Noah on top.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Aintitfunkynow

Forecast: Aintitfunkynow drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and this easier assignment should allow the son of Big Brown to earn his diploma. From his favorable rail post in this one mile inner turf track affair he should find himself in a second flight, ground-saving position and have every opportunity to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. We’ll make him a logical rolling exotic single but at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower the M. Maker-trained gelding probably won’t offer much value in the straight pool.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

10* Mets (Executive Info Winner)
10* Padres (President’s Choice)
9* White Sox (Value Investment)

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Ross Benjamin

10* Top Play Total

Braves-Mets under 7

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The Spot Player

2* Brewers +115
2* D'Backs +115

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Matt Fargo

10* MLB Friday Sweet Spot

Chicago Cubs

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Doc mlb 7-24.

6 reds-1.5-110

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Indian Cowboy

MLB 3-Unit Play. #957. Take Under 9 Runs (-110) Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Friday @ 7:05pm est)

[Yellow]

Essler 3* GOW

Oakland As -140

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Inkbets


MLB: Atlanta Braves +0.5 1H @ 1.95/-105 (3 Units)
MLB: Cleveland Indians TT Ov4.5 @ 1.74/-135 (3 Units)
MLB: Toronto Blue Jays ML @ 2.26/+126 (2 Units)
MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 @ 1.848/-118 (2 Units)

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Tony George

7.24.20

Action bets

4 Units - #967 / #968 - Minnesota vs Chicago White Sox (Under 9) -110 *8 EST
2 Units - #974 San Diego (-145) over Arizona *9:10 EST

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Marc Lawrence

MLB Opening Day Shocker

Play - Atlanta Braves w/Soroka vs DeGrom

Edges - Braves: Soroka is 4-1 in his last five team-starts in this series … Mets: DeGrom is 2-8 in his last ten team-starts in this series, including 1-7 at home … We are never shy about fading defending Cy Young award winners early on the following season, especially when they are not in peak physical form. We recommend a 3* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog
mlb
TampaBay -133 vs toronto bluejays

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Stephen Oh

MLB

CINCINNATI -178

DETROIT @ CINCINNATI | 7/24 | 6:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:13 PM
The Reds are winning about three-quarters of my simulations, making them a strong pick despite the price you have to lay. Cincinnati is a team on the upswing and should get off to a good start behind Sonny Gray, who posted a 1.78 ERA over his final 10 starts last year.

36-12 IN LAST 48 DET ML PICKS | +2223

20-16 IN LAST 36 CIN ML PICKS | +287

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Adam Goodwyn

MLB

CINCINNATI -169

DETROIT @ CINCINNATI | 7/24 | 6:10 PM EDT
10:40 AM
I like the Reds here, and so does my model. They brought in a ton this offseason, and my numbers reflect that. My model has the Reds winning 68.57 percent of the time. The spread currently translates to a win percentage of 61.83 percent. So, my model sees an edge of 6.73 percent. Look for Sonny Gray and the Reds to come out strong on Opening Day.

ARIZONA +121

ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | 7/24 | 9:10 PM EDT
10:35 AM
Wisdom meets youth in this game, as the Padres' young Chris Paddack faces off with veteran and new Diamondback Madison Bumgarner. My model likes the D-backs winning this game 49.03 percent of the time. The payout for the D-backs translates to an expected win percentage of 44.84 percent. So my model sees an edge of 4.19 percent. Let's pour one out for all the savvy vets. D-backs with the value here.

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Vernon Croy

MLB 7/24/2020 7 Unit - Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay (Action)

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Bob Weir

Horse Racing

Saratoga Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET)
This is a wide-open turf sprint to start the Pick 4. I will spread here and get narrow later. 2 Towering Gaze (5-1) had a little trouble in her debut and then showed improved speed in her next start and tired. Her third start could be the charm. The speed in her last start should prove helpful from this inside post. Capable.

7 Magnolia's Lady (9-2) also showed improved speed in her second start for trainer Linda Rice. She can improve and fits here.

8 Snicket (5-2) comes in for red-hot trainer Christophe Clement. She finished second in her last two starts, finishing ahead of both Towering Gaze and Magnolia's Lady. Must use.

9 Cake (8-1) finished behind the above horses in her career debut but can make big improvement in her second start for trainer Steve Asmussen, who hits at 22 percent with second-time starters.

10 Quantitativbreezin (3-1) ran second in her debut, earning a field-high Beyer Speed Figure. But it came in a maiden claiming race, and on Friday she runs into a protected maiden special spot. I don't love her but must respect the connections (trainer Brad Cox and jockey Javier Castellano).

11 Kaz's Princess (8-1) exits a debut at Penn National. She moves to a tougher circuit but can run in a state-bred spot. On Friday she attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., who won five races on Thursday. Could surprise.

A: 2,7,8,9,10,11
B: None

Saratoga Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET)
A 5-year-old for trainer Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables, 7 Free Enterprise (5-2) did not get to the races until his 4-year-old season. He's a consistent type who can make his own trip on or near the pace. He fits, will be bet and must be used.

1 Mount Travers (7-2) ran surprisingly well in his comeback race at Belmont in the mud. Given a little time to recover from the big effort, he could be the one to beat with any move forward. Must use.

9 Strike That (3-1) finished a distant second to talented sprinter Volatile in his last start. (Volatile is the morning-line favorite in Saturday's Grade 1 Vanderbilt.) There are no Volatiles in this race. Must consider.

A: 1,7,9
B: None

Saratoga Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET)
Quick Call Stakes
2 Jack and Noah (1-1) comes in off an impressive win in the Sir Cat Stakes at Belmont, immediately taking control out of the gate and never being challenged. The second- and third-place finishers return to try again, but Jack and Noah is the proven speed in this turf sprint. The other potential speed horse is trying turf for the first time and is no guarantee to pressure the pace. A repeat seems likely.

8 Turned Aside (2-1) finished second in his last start behind Jack and Noah. Perhaps this 3-year-old needed that start after a seven-month layoff. He's eligible to improve but must improve.

A: 2
B: 8

Saratoga Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET)
1 Aintitfunkynow (2-1) takes the all-important drop from maiden special to maiden claiming for top connections (trainer Mike Maker and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.). His late kick may look a little better at this level.

3 Bricco (3-1) ran a nice return race in his last start, making the lead before being outkicked late. He should be more fit in his second start back for a trainer, James Bond, who targets this meet. Big chance.

5 Operative (6-1) will also get his first chance at the maiden claiming level -- on the turf. His last race was rained off the turf. He gets a big rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz and fits here.

At the B level, there are few to include who can improve. 9 Golden Idol (15-1) tried turf last time off the layoff and split the field at this level... Trainer Raymond Handal has become well known for not having horses fully cranked at debut or off layoffs. 10 Yah Huh (20-1) ran OK in his last start and should run better this time... 7 My Primo (8-1) gets back on the turf for the first time since October and has several races that fit in this field... 12 Mommie's Jewel (10-1) stretches out off an even sprint try. He must overcome this outside post.

A: 1,3,5
B: 7,9,10,12

Wagers
All-A ticket
$1.00 Pick 4: 2,7,8,9,10,11 with 1,7,9 with 2 with 1,3,5 ($54)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7,8,9,10,11 with 1,7,9 with 8 with 1,3,5 ($27)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,7,8,9,10,11 with 1,7,9 with 2 with 7,9,10,12 ($36)

Total: $117

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe D'Amico's

DIAMOND PLAY

8* Twins

Take Minnesota. This is my DIAMOND PLAY. Game 967. 5:10 pm pst. Minnesota returns this season as one of the best teams in baseball. The Twins enter 2020 very bitter after finishing the 2019 regular season at 101-61, only to get swept by the Yankees in the Division Series. They start the year off with Jose Berrios on the mound. The RH went 14-8 with an ERA of 3.68 last year, making it three solid campaigns in a row. Lucas Giolito gets the nod at home here. The RH comes off his best campaign yet (14-9, 3.41), but is just 27-26 with an ERA of 4.60, lifetime. The line here is a bit skewed as the Twinkies injury list rivals that of a Belichick/Patriots list. I'm not letting that scare me right now. This is a team on a mission. They are 4-0 the last four games played at the White Sox and 5-1 the last six overall vs. the White Sox. TAKE MINNESOTA. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
White Sox

Play on
Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cajun Sports

Diamond Club Insider

8* Twins w/ Berrios

The Minnesota Twins hit the road for their season opener in the Second City as they take on the host Chicago White Sox Friday night. We have the Twins in a pair of super situations the first looks at the Twins when they are on the road and installed as the favorite. Since the 2012 campaign Minnesota has been money in the bank producing an ROI of +19.2 percent and a profit of +$2,175. The Twins have cashed the winning ticket almost seventy percent of the time in this situation posting a SU record of 68-30 for 69.4 percent winners. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of +1.29 runs. Now we look at the starting pitcher for the Twins as Jose Berrios will take the bump on Friday night in the Second City. Berrios has an ROI of 68.9 percent against the Chicago White Sox with his team posting a record of 12-2 SU (+9.65 Units). Individually Berrios has compiled a record of 11-2 SU over that same span with an ERA of 2.40 and a WHIP of 1.014. Berrios held the Sox to three or fewer earned runs in all but one of those fourteen starts against this White Sox team. Our BbPPI has Berrios with a projected game average of 7.61 while the Sox starter Giolito comes into this contest with a projected game average of 4.98. The combination of all these factors make a strong case for the Twins. So, we are going to lay the short price with Minnesota on the diamond Friday night. MLB Best Bet 8* Minnesota Twins w/Berrios