Friday 10/9/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis October 9, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
There is a 13-race card scheduled at the Meadowlands this evening. The Early 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6 and it has a 15% takeout. That sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Magical Winner K (4-1)-Breaks then wins then breaks...so it's time for a win. But seriously can take a picture here if minds manners.
7-Henderson Seelster (3-1)-Won as an odds-on choice and now steps up. Has 3 wins in 18 starts at the Big M and has the speed to be in the mix. Question will be how Miller works the trip, not sure if blasting out will work.
8-All Champy (12-1)-Made up a lot ground at Philly in last and raced the last half in 55.2. Makes Big M debut tonight, will take a swing there's an honest pace and Teague puts into striking range.

Race 7

3-Justabitofcharm (5-1)-Looking for Allard to work a similar trip as in the last start but be a little tighter. Looking for an aggressive drive to get a close-up seat and then could get sucked around.
4-Adorabella (4-1)-Beat #3 last week by getting the lead with an early move and hung on for the win. Probably follows the same plan and hopes it is picture time again.
9-Jazz Fest (2-1)-Beats this kind in last from the 7 hole and with this post draw it might be more difficult. Will respect the connections but won't offer much value.

Race 8

3-Stenhouse Hanover (3-1)-Philly invader broke in last start and that happens from time to time. Will use and hope that he doesn't jump. Has a lifetime mark of 152.2 here and looks like a threat if minds manners.
4-Trixie Dust (7/2)-Has 2 wins in 10 starts in East Rutherford and from this post should be in the mix again. Chartrand may lay back off the pace and if they go quick enough could trot by foes down the lane.
9-Wishyou'dtellme (10-1)-Steps up after succumbing to a rough trip and fading down the lane. Makes 2nd start here and this post isn't great, but it is better than last week from the 10 hole. Looking for better and should be a price.

Race 9

4-Cay's Blessing (8-1)-Rolled the back half in 55.1 at Plainridge and now makes 2nd lifetime start at the Big M. Should be able to challenge in a race without standout. Needs a trip but barn has been hot.
7-Thats Incredible (6-1)-#4's stablemate ships in to make Big M debut. Probably is more trip dependent than Nickerson's other entry but has a lifetime best at Wbsb of 153 last year and could be a solid price.
8-Twinsburg (7/2)-Comes off a sharp win after making an early move to get the top and didn't look back. Usually doesn't follow that type of script. With this post may go back to finding cover and rolling down the lane.

0.50 Early Pick 4

3,7,8/3,4,9/3,4,9/4,7,8
Total Bet=$40.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/9/20 October 9, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, October 9, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Luvluv; 6-Carmelita’s Man

(View Video Analysis) (https://youtu.be/5pqKASEU8DI)

Forecast: Older straight maidens compete over a mile on turf in the Friday opener. Carmelita’s Man, now in the D. Pederson barn, has improved in each of his three career starts and was most recently a very good runner-up under these conditions at Del Mar last month. The 3-year-old colt was forced to check sharply and lose all of his momentum entering the far turn but managed to regather himself entering the lane and then finish with courage before running out of room. An easy, healthy series of workouts since that race should have him primed for another forward move, so with clear sailing today the son of Mucho Macho Man should be along in time. Also worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up, is Luvluv, third in the same race Carmelita’s Man exits and also likely to step forward in what will be his fourth career starts. The J. Sadler-trained colt retains U. Rispoli and projects to be tactically placed in a good stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Impression

(View Video Analysis) (https://youtu.be/48KzDcV7igk)

Forecast: Impression annihilated a $10,000 field at Del Mar five weeks ago at this one mile main track trip and moves up a level while seeking a repeat score in his first-off-the-claim for P. Miller (an amazing 45% with this angle). Being raised only to the $12,500 in his first start for new connections (and very likely to be claimed again) actually isn’t a great endorsement by Miller but anything close to his last race should be more than good enough to handle this modest class hike. The pace scenario should be soft, so from his inside draw the veteran Smart Strike can take the initiative and make the running or settle and stalk if the race flow dictates. He’s a short priced, no value, rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bounty of Gold; 3-Give Me a Hint

(View Video Analysis) (https://youtu.be/8wNkKP3snLI)

Forecast: Bounty of Gold just won a $20,000 claimer with a career top speed figure in good style at Del Mar but returns in a $10,000 sprint for fillies and mares, not normally a healthy sign. However, it must be noted that her victory came against restricted (nw-3) company and today she’s facing open foes, so the class drop in claiming value actually makes sense. From the high-percentage J. Wong barn, the daughter of Unionize must leave cleanly from the rail but projects as the controlling speed if she does. Give Me a Hint, a perfect two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track, has a good look on pure form but will be ridden by a 10 lbs. apprentice jockey seeking her first career victory. The daughter of Merit Man lacks tactical speed but if she can get some help up front she could make her presence felt in the final furlong. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Bounty of Gold on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Warrens Candy Girl; 4-Miss Ever Ready; 9-Big Andy

(View Video Analysis) (https://youtu.be/JYHOmvHbVgA)

Forecast: State-bred maiden juvenile fillies meet over a mile on grass to kick off the Pick-6 in a stronger-than-par race for the level. There appears to have three legitimate contenders. Big Andy, certainly bred to run long on the lawn (Mr. Big), returns to the maiden ranks after placing in a couple of state-bred stakes sprinting on dirt at Del Mar, retains F. Prat, and has shown in a couple of recent workouts that she’s spot on for a major effort. The B. Heap-trained filly is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but should be able to get over and secure a decent early position. Miss Ever Ready and Warrens Candy Girl finished two-three in a similar maiden grass router at Del Mar and both ran quite we’ll in what was a legitimate race for the level. The former adds blinkers today, switches to top turf jockey U. Rispoli, and should on or near the lead throughout over a course with the rails out 30 feet and thus should favor the pace-types. ‘Girl was wide most of the way and finished willingly while moving forward considerably off her non-threatening dirt sprint debut. She’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip and be dangerous with another patient ride from D. Van Dyke.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Agamemnon; 4-Quick Finish; 6-Fratelli; 7-Principe Carlo

(View Video Analysis) (https://youtu.be/phk1jz6KSro)

Forecast: Here’s a challenging first-level allowance state-bred sprint offering a number of possibilities, some at good prices. We’ll go four deep while hoping looking for some value. Agamemnon was very impressive breaking his maiden at first asking over this dirt track in May, overcoming a sluggish start to rally wide and win going away. He was non-competitive in a subsequent turf sprint and given some time off, but in recent weeks the R. McAnally-trained colt has worked at least as well if not better than he did prior to his win, so in a race that contains enough early speed to aid the closers, this Grazen gelding might be able to produce the last run. Quick Finish struck the front in mid-stretch but was worn down late in a similar dash at Del Mar last month and is a major contender based on that race, though he’s always preferred to run second or third (eight times) rather than win (twice, but none in the last two years). The Vronsky gelding should be within striking range throughout and have his chance with U. Rispoli staying aboard. Fratelli just crushed a softer restricted (nw-2) $25,000 field over this track and distance two weeks ago but leaves the P. Miller barn after being haltered by A. Lerner. If he runs as well for his new connections as he did in his one outing for Miller, the Munnings gelding certainly can be dangerous despite the class hike. Principe Carlo also is making his first start off a claim, his for K. Desormeaux. Although weakening under pressure in a similar optional claimer (the same race Quick Finish exits) last time out, the son of Coil has been first or second in seven of eight career starts over the Arcadia main over and could easily return to form over a track that he clearly prefers.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-War Path; 9-Comradery

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5xAVoHm4S0)

Forecast: Comradery was three-wide without cover yet kept to his task and was well clear of the rest when a good runner-up in a maiden turf miler at Del Mar in August. The progressive colt in J. Sadler’s barn switches to U. Rispoli and though drawn on the extreme outside should have enough tactical to get over a secure a reasonable early position. The Irish-bred appears capable of earning his diploma in his third start since being imported from Europe. War Path is worth including as a backup or a saver. Second in his last pair, most recently when favored at 4/5, the B. Baffert-trained colt can’t beat a decent maiden but apparently it takes a fairly decent one to beat him. The War Front colt should be prominent throughout and remain a factor until the end.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Hidden Promise; 5-Tizhotndusty; 7-Drippin Sauce; 8-Howbeit

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9S9u6iWJ4k)

Forecast: The seventh race is a messy $40,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Hidden Promise was a visually pleasing winner at this level at Del Mar in August and may be tough right back, rail and all. Assuming he breaks with his field, the Blame gelding projects to be forwardly placed and have his chance, though he’s picking up a bit of weight (5 lbs.) and won’t necessarily enjoy today’s shorter six furlong trip. Tizhotndusty, sixth with a poor trip/ride behind Hidden Promise in that same race, shows a recent bullet workout over the local training track (:48 3/5) and can be expected to improve if he leaves cleanly this time. The lightly-raced Unusual Heat gelding seems to have enough ability to act with this group if things go his way. Drippin Sauce, a beaten choice at 6/5 behind Hidden Promise in that Aug. 21 affair, switches to F. Prat and must be given a chance to snap. The J. Wong-trained colt projects to be a strong pace threat throughout. Finally, we’ll toss in Howbeit, a prior winner over this main track and exiting stronger and faster allowance race here two weeks ago. He didn’t change leads in that race but was wide throughout, finished as best he could, and seems more dangerous than the morning line would indicate.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Zestful; 3-Maestro Dearte; 8-Marckie’s Water

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfUJ_p5XJCs<br/>)

Forecast: Marckie’s Water, one of two major contenders from the P. Eurton barn in this second-level allowance optional claimer, makes his first start since August of 2019 and returns unprotected while being entered for $62,500 claiming tag. A five-time winner (in 11 starts) over the Santa Anita turf course and successful in the Whittingham S.-G2 three races back, the 6-year-old son of Tribal Rule clearly has issues, so there’s no guarantee he’ll return as well as he left. Additionally, he’s a closer over a course with the rails up that compromises his style. That said, he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic single though certainly not a single. Stable mate Maestro Dearte doesn’t have the credentials that ‘Water has but appears to be rounding to from following two recent runs at Del Mar – he was in the frame in both - and with the switch to U. Rispoli the son of Sydney’s Candy appears ready for a major effort. Zestful looks like the controlling speed at a big price and he’s good enough to take full advantage of the situation if not respected. A nine-time winner (from 27 starts) and freshened since early August, the son of Ghostzapper offers wagering value in both the horizontal and vertical exotics.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Imperial Creed; 2-Gratzie; 5-Northwest Factor

Forecast: Imperial Creed returns from Southern California and drops into a $32,000 seller over a synthetic track she clearly likes, so we’ll put the daughter of Jimmy Creed top while hoping she can regain her confidence at this lower level, She likes to settle and produce a late run and though this pace projects modest the A. Mathis-trained filly should be heard from in the final furlong. Gratzie and Northwest Factor are stable mates in M. Badilla’s barn and both are worth including on a ticket or two as back-ups. The former, a 9-year-old mare with 12 career victories, was nosed out as the choice in a $20,000 affair but has numbers that make her competitive despite the class hike, while ‘Factor should be on or near the front end and could stick around a long time if not respected.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: C+
Use: 7-Nesbitt; 9-Etterbay Ucklay; 10-Sorriso

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-AJFJT0MAE)

Forecast: Nesbitt, third in a hot race two weeks ago and a solid runner-up two runs back, makes this third start in five weeks and is capable of winning this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming extended sprint with a repeat of either race. This will be his third start off a long layoff, so he has a right to step forward. Sorriso, freshened for two months and showing a sharp, steady series of quick recent workouts M. Glatt, retains A. Cedillo and figures to be a serious pace challenger throughout. With just four career starts, the son of Smiling Tiger has plenty of room to improve and we know he’ll handle the track, as he graduated nicely over the local main dirt strip last spring. Etterbay Ucklay drops to his lowest level ever, has a good second-flight style, and may be able to wear down the leaders if a favorable race flow develops. With two races under his best following an 11 month layoff, the son of Lucky Pulpit appears ready for a significant forward move at nice price is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:59 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Foothill; 3-Slam Dunk Sermon; 4-Take Me for a Spin

Forecast: Take Me for a Spin makes his first start as a gelding for the high-percentage J. Wong barn, shows a healthy work tab in recent weeks and likely will appreciate this shortened sprint distance. The son of Old Topper certainly is no single but may offer a bit of value at 9/2 on the morning line in this first-level allowance sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Slam Dunk Sermon earned a career top speed figure when winning from a slightly lesser field her last month and will be tough if he can string together back-to-back wins, something he has failed to do three times previous. The good news is that while he’s comfortable on the lead the S. Specht-trained gelding is versatile enough to stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates. Foothill vans up from Southern California to make his first start over all-weather surface after displaying form in four races on grass. Best as a second flight, stalking sprinter, the Vronsky lands the rail and should settle in just behind the leaders and – if room develops – have a chance to produce a winning late kick. All three should be included in rolling exotic play, including the Golden Hour Pick-4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Belmont Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 Daria's Angel
Pace player was in good form, went away, then returned with a strong effort at the Spa, now goes off the Gyarmati claim, and she doesn't play in that arena often, so there had to be some obvious appeal; look out.


#7 Stay Fond
Dangerous miss wheels back on 12 days' rest off a romp against lesser, and while the rise is a worry, there's little doubt she's in form, and if you get that 9-2 ML, there's plenty of reason to come along; do not ignore.


#5 Bossy Bride
Class dropper hasn't fired in her last two, albeit against much better, but there's no value here, and she could be going the wrong way, so it's best to make her prove it before backing at underlaid odds; trying to beat.


Race Summary
There's a lot to like about the 2, especially if she's going to be near that 7-2 ML, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since there are several different ways to go here, and a win in the $9 range would add plenty of value to the sequence right off the bat.


Belmont Park - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#3 Ready Seeker
Price player didn't fire on turf on debut for Pletcher, but Saez sticks, she's bred for the main track, and the blinks could give her more speed for an aggressive rider; upset special.


#2 Caramel Swirl
Mott firster goes for a patient 11% debut barn, but this Godolphin homebred has a nice pedigree and some very snappy works, so if the money shows, she could be live; major player.


#5 Malathaat
Pletcher firster cost over $1 million, so you know they'll bet her hard, and the works whisper ready too, though she may want a bit more ground than the 7Fs here; tabbing today.


Race Summary
The 3 is a bit of a a reach, but she has a start under her belt, and that's key, and both the firsters could need one, big pedigrees and connections and all, so give the pick a look in all the slots, and in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, as she's going to get ignored here, but there are reasons to think she runs a lot better, and if she does post the surprise, it would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.


Belmont Park - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 Vincero
Speedster goes off the Atras claim (24%) and meets a field without a lot of early zip, and for a potent new barn, on the drop, he will be tough to catch; looks long gone.


#7 Financial Freedom
The other speed cuts back after a route pop and stop, so this trip might work, and Arriaga is 28% off the claim, so he may stick around longer than you think; pace player.


#6 Summer Bourbon
Stalker didn't fire at the level last time and now goes off the claim for Rice (22%), who often moves them up, though that last says to tread lightly; mixed signals here.


Race Summary
You certainly won't get rich on the 1, but the post, pace, and new trainer all say he's running huge, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some built-in value by singling him to kick off the late Pk5, as that's not a move the public likes to endorse to kick off a sequence, but it looks wise here, as he has this field over a barrel.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks The Meadows - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#8 VECTOR
Romped off claim from similar post, gets repeat call in amateur drivers’ race.


#5 GEORGIE’S POCKETS
Chased 4-1 winner around the track through honest splits.


#4 LUMINOSITY
Finished 1-2-3 in last six weeks at Northfield at short prices.


Race Summary
Vector ran away from the late-running favorite to win off the claim from post 9. His driver in this ‘amateur’ event has professional experience at the Meadows. Play 8-4 and 8-5 exactas.


Hoosier Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#6 CAJON LIGHTNING
Ran scare into favorite late, seeks 29th win, too good to pass up at a price.


#3 GOOD LIVING
Third in 3 of last 4 starts, two from second-tier starting spots.


#1 ELITE AWARDS
Classy 9-year-old in excellent form, moves outside in.


Race Summary
Cajon Lightning, trapped 3-deep on the rail most of the way, squeezed through an opening at the 16th pole and surged late at repeat winner So So Delightful. He’s worth a play at anywhere near 8-1 morning-line price.


Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#2 COLD CREEK CABO
Could factor on best at double-digit odds, use in gimmicks.


#5 DEVIL OR ANGEL
Led early from post 9, sat a loose pocket, finished in money again.


#9 GOING FAST
Gobbled up ground while widest in the stretch, price attached.


Race Summary
Using two longshots in a 2-5-9 exacta box. Cold Creek Cabo was outrun in a fast sire stakes race, moves outside in and showed up-close ability a couple months ago when he won two in a row.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park West - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#1 R Prerogative
Got back to the winner's circle last with with a solid sprint win after battled without the lead much of the way; a similar effort gets repeat win.


#2 Choose Joy
Broke her maiden here in October and was off till September, when she tired; can improve in her second back.


#3 Midtown Rose
Has developed into a quality stalker and will get a fast pace to follow; was a clear winner last time and will be able to mix it up with these at some point.


Race Summary
R Prerogative has the speed to be on or near the front end and can benefit from a ground-saving journey.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#2 Kantharos' Image
Ran well in his last four and hasn't been out since December; has trained well for his return and can rise up in his first back.


#5 Shoshone Brave
Didn't break well last time but he has in most of his races, including stakes; worth a look at a decent price.


#12 R Man Joe
Will be tested from the outside post but goes for his third straight win. Has some versatile running style and fits well here.


Race Summary
Kantharos' Image makes his first start of 2020 and should have the stamina for five furlongs after several practice runs in the morning. Could be overlooked on the tote board.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Chase Runner
Ran down a solid group two races back and then faltered last time going a mile; is back to six furlongs and can be a factor from the start.


#4 Drop Kick
Was claimed by Zerpa last time after several attempts going long; won four races backs and should be a big player as he drops in class.


#8 French Quarter
Won five of his last 10, including his last one; was claimed by Barbosa, but he's used to it, as he's been claimed in six of his last 10.


Race Summary
Chase Runner can secure a good trip, probably just off the pace and can benefit from an inside run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 9 Stronach 5 Play

October 7, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 9 Stronach 5 Play

Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***

Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:58 ET) – 3up 6.25k claimer at 6 ½ furlongs

I’ll go with #2 Chase Runner (9-2), as he drops in class, has been in good form, and, most important of all, catches a field where the pace seems suicidal, which should play right into his hands in the lane, at what can be a tricky distance too. Don’t sleep on #1 Karen’s Cove, who was just beaten a neck at the level and is another who will close late, even if this is a tougher group today. The hot speed of #8 French Quarter (3-1) and #5 Drop Kick (4-1) almost has to cancel each other out, but both could blow up off the claim for Barboza (52%) and Zerpa (32%), respectively, so they need to be used off their big recent form.


Pk5 A horses: 2,1,8,5 (listed in order of preference)

I think the top-4 should get us through, and if they don’t, it will be a big upset, so let’s go it alone there.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: NONE


Leg 2: Laurel Park Race 7 (4:20 ET) – 75k Bert Allen for Va breds at 1 1/16 miles (turf)

This one is easy, as #1 Largent (2-5) gets as big a class break as you’ll ever see, as he’s stakes-place at Saratoga and now gets to dip his toe in with Virginia breds; I’ll take the free square and move on.

Pk5 A horses: 1

The only other horse within shouting distance is #8 Kendama (8-1), but even he is a long way back, so the re will be no backups here.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #8 Kendama (5-1)


Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (5:02 ET) – 75k Punch Line for Va breds at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

This one is quite as decisive as with Largent in Leg 2, but it’s not far off either, as #5 Embolden (9-5) is graded stakes placed and meets no one like that here, so I’ll single him as well, in what is shaping up as a very small ticket.

Pk5 A horses: 5

The only time #7 Lynchburg (12-1) ran on turf it was a solid win at Cnl, so if the pace gets hot, just maybe he could surprise back on what looks like his preferred surface. The fact Lawrence claimed #9 Uncle Andrew from GP for this spot says a lot, and his turf form isn’t bad at all, so he’s another who could surprise if the favorite stubs his toe. The outside draw won’t help #13 Carbon Data (5-1), but she does have the speed to negate it, and her form is the best of the rest, so let’s use her too.

Pk5 B horses: 7, 9,13

Potential B add-ins: #10 sir Rockport (12-1)


Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 4 (5:08 ET) – 2yof Cal-bred MSW at 1-mile (turf)

A drop in class and blinkers-on might get #4 MISS EVER READY (3-1) over the hump, and this post won’t hurt either, so she gets top billing over #2 WARRENS CANDY GIRL (7-2), who beat her by a nose in August in what was the latter’s turf debut and so she also seems like a must-use.

Pk5 A horses: 4,2

The fact that stretchout sprinters #6 AFTER MIDNIGHT (6-1) and #9 BIG ANDY (5-2) are outside says there will be some speed up front, so I’m only using them underneath, though neither would be a big surprise.

Pk5 B horses: 6,9

Potential B add-ins: #7 Big Stretch (6-1)


Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:51 ET) – 2yo MSW at 1-mile (turf)

This looks like heavy chalk again, as #2 DYN O MITE (7-5) is by far the best, and draws best of all too, so I’m not looking to get too creative. With that being said, I will use #8 Sober (5-1) who tries turf for his first start for local ace Wong off a decent 4th on debut, and stretches out too.

Pk5 A horses: 2,8

Getting to the turf helped #4 Sooner Than Sooner (8-1) last time, when 2nd, though he’ll need to improve here, while Del Mar invader #7 Governor’s Party (20-1) could wake up on the drop, and #6 Mr. Pickles (3-1) will be overbet, but was a good 2nd off the Trujillo claim last time.

Pk5 B horses: 4,7,6

Potential B add-ins: NONE


The tickets:

Main Ticket: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 4,2 with 2,8 = $16 (play for $2)
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 7,9,13 with 4,2 with 2,8 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 6,9 with 2,8 = $16
Leg 5 Backup: 2,1,8,5 with 1 with 5 with 4,2 with 4,7,6 = $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1/ST Look: Golden Gate Fields Stats

October 6, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support Golden Gate Fields by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

Racing dates from the Big Fresno Fair (Oct. 8-18) have been transferred to Golden Gate Fields. The track’s already-scheduled autumn meet will immediately ensue on Oct. 22 … The 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6 carryover will be $233,916 as racing resumes Thursday-Sunday this week … Golden Gate Fields-based Windy City Red, trained by Jonathan Wong, is being considered for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint following his third-place finish in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita … Jockey Armando Ayuso, who has ridden sparingly since 2015, has joined the GGF colony. The native of Panama rode more than 1,000 mounts primarily on the east coast in the early part of the decade.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 was not offered last week due to Oct. 2 cancellation of racing at Golden Gate Fields. The wager paid $5,248.90 2 weeks ago to 26 winning tickets with no winner over 6-1 odds. The Oct. 9 Stronach 5 will be comprised of the following races (beginning at 3:58 pm Eastern):

Leg A – Gulfstream Park West Race 8
Leg B – Laurel Park Race 7
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 8
Leg D – Santa Anita Race 4
Leg E – Golden Gate Race 3

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields last week, each winning at a 33% or greater win rate. For the fourth straight week, speed or pace-related factors swept the top-3 at Golden Gate.

Avg E1 Pace
Avg Speed Last 3
Avg Speed Best 2 of Last 3

Trends Last Week

--No trainer won more than 3 races on the week, and it took Jonathan Wong 24 starts to win 3.
--Trainer Michael Lenzini was 4: 2-2-0 with $6 and $10 winners sprinting on Tapeta and turf.
--Trainer Greg James went 2-for-2, winning a pair of 2-year-old 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weights with 4-5 and 5-1 shots. The barn was 1-for-11 in the month prior to those Oct. 4 scores.
--Trainer Jesus Ramos was knocking on the door at 4: 1-3-0 with a $10 winner and a 20-1 runner-up. This barn was 0-for-28 dating back to mid-August prior to this week’s perk-up.
--Jockey Frank Alvarado paced the riders at 9: 4-1-2, riding winners between 4-5 and 7-2 prices, but also had a 20-1 runner-up. All 4 wins came in Tapeta sprints.
--Favorites went 10-for-19 on the Tapeta (53% wins, 68% in exacta).

Trends Last 2 Weeks

--Favorites are 22 of 44 on the Tapeta to score at 50%.
--Jockey Frank Alvarado boasts an 18: 7-3-3 mark that includes 39% wins, 56% in the exacta and a $1.53 ROI for every $1 bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk
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NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – Yankees -155


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Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
MLB – Yankees over 7.5


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
NBA – Lakers -7


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NBA – Lakers over 216


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MLB – Yankees -155


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MLB – Yankees over 7.5


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Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
NBA – Lakers over 216


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Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
NBA – Lakers -7


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MLB – Yankees over 7.5


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MLB – Yankees -155


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Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
NBA – Lakers over 216


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Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
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NY Players Club (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/new-york-players-club/)
NBA – Lakers over 216


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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Fri) NBA Lakers -7
(Fri) NCAAF Georgia tech +4-
(Fri) MLB Rays +135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs



Will Rogers Downs - Race 5

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)



Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $11,300 • Post: 1:40P


QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FLYING LITTLE EAGLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BV DONT CRY JONI: Qu arter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SRD LOTA WOW: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at t he distance/surface.



2

FLYING LITTLE EAGLE

3/1


3/1




1

BV DONT CRY JONI

5/2


5/1




6

SRD LOTA WOW

5/1


5/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

BV DONT CRY JONI

1


5/2

Fast/Trouble-prone

68


58


0.0


0.0


0.0




2

FLYING LITTLE EAGLE

2


3/1

Average

77


60


5.3


0.0


0.0




3

NO SHOW JO

3


15/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0




4

GYPSYS FLICKA

4


12/1

Slow

0


0


9.3


0.0


0.0




5

G PAWS GOT THIS ONE

5


15/1

Slow/Trouble-prone

0


0


7.0


0.0


0.0




6

SRD LOTA WOW

6


5/1

Average

58


59


4.8


0.0


0.0




7

SOUTHERN TALES

7


6/1

Average

41


33


4.2


0.0


0.0




8

TELLERSHESHOTASFIRE

8


4/1

Average

61


43


5.4


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 8

Late Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)



Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 10:23


(RAIL AT 18 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 9, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 9, 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 5 FURLONG ON THE MAIN TRACK.)





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LADY GWEN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NOBLE LOVE: Horse's win perce ntage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. NAUTICAL GEM: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. ZABETTE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. EURO ME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



2

LADY GWEN

9/2


6/1




8

NOBLE LOVE

5/2


6/1




3

NAUTICAL GEM

3/1


7/1




9

ZABETTE

20/1


7/1




10

EURO ME

20/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

CASINO QUEEN

7


20/1

Front-runner

74


76


104.3


67.3


54.8




4

KNOW WHAT I MINA

4


8/1

Front-runner

74


65


91.3


72.8


56.3




3

NAUTICAL GEM

3


3/1

Front-runner

86


84


85.0


66.3


57.3




5

PEKA

5


6/1

Stalker

82


77


85.4


73.3


63.8




2

LADY GWEN

2


9/2

Stalker

86


90


79.4


74.4


66.9




1

ICY CHARLIE

1


10/1

Stalker

73


77


72.6


65.8


56.3




9

ZABETTE

9


20/1

Trailer

87


80


65.8


82.6


76.6




6

ROYAL SOPRANO

6


15/1

Trailer

73


63


62.6


70.2


53.7




10

EURO ME

10


20/1

Trailer

85


81


52.1


79.6


68.1




8

NOBLE LOVE

8


5/2

Trailer

82


83


49.5


75.9


66.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Belmont Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:12pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 POINT HIM OUT (ML=8/1)
#4 GOOD OLD BOY (ML=3/1)
#9 JIMMY JAZZ (ML=15/1)


POINT HIM OUT - Horses out of the barn of Stidham have been strong on the turf. Should do well in this race. The animal with the top average Equibase class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This campaigner fits the bill. GOOD OLD BOY - Of all the entrants in today's race only this gelding has won over this turf course. Was a beaten favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the figure earned was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's race. Based on his last TrackMaster turf fig alone, I'm going to play this thoroughbred. This horse has shown the capability to win at different tracks. Making the move from Saratoga for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. JIMMY JAZZ - Bush gets a break on this thoroughbred carrying 7 lbs less than last out. Its possible this could make the difference in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 COLD HARD CASH (ML=1/1), #11 MICROSECOND (ML=2/1), #10 BEACH ACCESS (ML=6/1),

COLD HARD CASH - Doesn't appear to be in a satisfactory circumstance today. MICROSECOND - He's most likely going to get cooked up front. BEACH ACCESS - Pace is so important, and this speedball is going to have a ding-dong battle on his hands.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 POINT HIM OUT to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,9]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4,9] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 3 GERI P 7/2




# 4 CASON 9/2




# 2 JRS FANTASYS ALIBI 5/2




GERI P looks like the wager in here. With a very good 74 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. CASON - He has been running well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this field. Must be considered given the class of races run recently. JRS FANTASYS ALIBI - Looks formidable to be on the front end at the first call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Penn National - Race #10 - Post: 9:54pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,600 Class Rating: 64

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 COPPERHEAD CREEK (ML=3/1)
#1A EAGLES CRY (ML=3/1)
#4 PAT'S GRONK (ML=5/2)


COPPERHEAD CREEK - After the contest aboard this horse on September 25th, the jock is going to 'know' the gelding much better. This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him in the rear of the field early in the race and flying down the lane on the tiring speed horses. This gelding is in exceptional condition right now. Finished second last time out and comes back rapidly. The most recent fig of 55 is the highest last race speed rating in the group. Is ranked at the top in EPS (earnings per start). A strong try in this event will add to that bankroll. EAGLES CRY - The rider/trainer tandem of Wolfsont and Stites has a strong ROI together. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. PAT'S GRONK - Trainer Krebs moves this horse down the ladder based on class rating points to face weaker company. Look for a solid performance at this level. The most recent rating of 55 is the highest last race rating in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 E T'S NIGHT RANGER (ML=2/1), #6 UNSUNG HERO (ML=5/1), #5 TRIPLE A. PLUS (ML=6/1),

E T'S NIGHT RANGER - Doubtful that the speed rating he notched on Sep 28th will hold up in this race. UNSUNG HERO - Recorded a common speed figure last time out in a $16,000 Maiden Claiming race on September 2nd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. TRIPLE A. PLUS - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in sprint affairs of late. This entrant hasn't shown very much in the last pair of races. This gelding notched a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 Entry to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,4]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland



10/09/20, KEE, Race 6, 3.51 ET
10/09/20,KEE,6,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $70,000 (includes up to $14,300 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $50,000 In Last 3 Starts). In the event that this race is taken off the turf it will be contested at One Mile and One-Sixteenth on the main track. (Rail at 15 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
3
Dreams of Tomorrow
4/1
Geroux F
McGaughey III Claude R


64
26.56
1.56/$1


098.4995
1
Telephone Talker
3/1
Gaffalione T
Maker Michael J.
JFC
98
27.55
1.32/$1


097.8310
4
Ghostlore(b+)
15/1
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Wilkes Ian R.


64
26.56
1.56/$1


097.3034
5
Winters Back
9/2
Santana. Jr. R
Pletcher Todd A.


64
26.56
1.56/$1


097.3021
6
Trade Deadline
9/2
Castellano J
Brown Chad C.
TL
64
26.56
1.56/$1


096.7484
8
Carmichael
8/1
Bejarano R
Oliver Victoria H.
W
64
26.56
1.56/$1


095.7275
2
Capt. Maestri
12/1
Lanerie C J
Pessin Neil L.
S
64
26.56
1.56/$1


094.9872
7
Gear Jockey
4/1
Leparoux J R
Arnold. II George R.
E
64
26.56
1.56/$1


094.1668
9
Luxor
30/1
Padron-Barcenas J
Jurado Luis A.


64
26.56
1.56/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.67, ROI 1.43/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Dreams of Tomorrow
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]NotMorningLineFavorite(notentry)
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
1
Telephone Talker
3/1
Gaffalione T
Maker Michael J.
JFC
59
49.15
1.63/$1


099.1166
6
Trade Deadline
9/2
Castellano J
Brown Chad C.
TL
183
31.15
1.18/$1


098.9903
3
Dreams of Tomorrow
4/1
Geroux F
McGaughey III Claude R


183
31.15
1.18/$1


098.4065
4
Ghostlore(b+)
15/1
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Wilkes Ian R.
W
142
31.69
1.33/$1


094.7616
5
Winters Back
9/2
Santana. Jr. R
Pletcher Todd A.


142
31.69
1.33/$1


094.7406
8
Carmichael
8/1
Bejarano R
Oliver Victoria H.


142
31.69
1.33/$1


094.7026
2
Capt. Maestri
12/1
Lanerie C J
Pessin Neil L.
S
142
31.69
1.33/$1


091.3933
9
Luxor
30/1
Padron-Barcenas J
Jurado Luis A.


82
29.27
0.88/$1


090.9707
7
Gear Jockey
4/1
Leparoux J R
Arnold. II George R.
E
142
31.69
1.33/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 35.71, ROI 1.31/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Telephone Talker
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]BestJockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park
PURCHASE (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eebURLAddToCart.cfm?pid=50289&pfn=sa1009zf.pdf&exp=10/11/2020&pds=SA_-_10/09/2020&var=RACE_DATE=10/09/2020;TRACK_CODE=SA&SAP=FREEPICS)

10/09/20, SA, Race 4, 2.08 PT
10/09/20,SA,4,1M [Turf] 1:31:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000. FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In Their Last Starts Preferred). (Rail at 30 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
6
After Midnight
6/1
Hernandez J J
Gaines Carla
SFLC
273
40.29
1.27/$1


099.3871
9
Big Andy
5/2
Prat F
Heap Blake R.


273
40.29
1.27/$1


099.2526
4
Miss Ever Ready(b+)
3/1
Rispoli U
Koriner Brian J.


273
40.29
1.27/$1


098.1737
7
Big Stretch
6/1
Cedillo A
D'Amato Philip


273
40.29
1.27/$1


097.1463
12
Princess Sadie
8/1
Prat F
O'Neill Doug F.


273
40.29
1.27/$1


096.1156
2
Warrens Candy Girl
7/2
Van Dyke D
Lewis Craig Anthony


273
40.29
1.27/$1


095.8969
8
St Helena
10/1
Gutierrez M
Puype Mike


273
40.29
1.27/$1


095.6416
10
Stars of Bluegrass
10/1
Van Dyke D
Lerner Andrew


273
40.29
1.27/$1


093.7373
3
Renegade Princess
20/1
Maldonado E A
Eurton Peter


273
40.29
1.27/$1


093.1493
1
Sideways Suances
12/1
Baze T
Mullins Jeff
TW
287
39.02
1.25/$1


091.6525
5
Steinway(b+)
20/1
Pereira T J
Hernandez. Jr. Jose


273
40.29
1.27/$1


000.0000
11
Supernova Wildcat
1/5
No Rider Yet



107
40.19
1.29/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.27, ROI 1.04/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 After Midnight
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]*NotActualPost1
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
6
After Midnight
6/1
Hernandez J J
Gaines Carla
SFLC
149
42.95
1.46/$1


097.2189
4
Miss Ever Ready(b+)
3/1
Rispoli U
Koriner Brian J.


128
27.34
1.41/$1


097.0856
7
Big Stretch
6/1
Cedillo A
D'Amato Philip
W
128
27.34
1.41/$1


096.0789
12
Princess Sadie
8/1
Prat F
O'Neill Doug F.


169
31.36
0.95/$1


095.3729
9
Big Andy
5/2
Prat F
Heap Blake R.


128
27.34
1.41/$1


095.1011
2
Warrens Candy Girl
7/2
Van Dyke D
Lewis Craig Anthony


128
27.34
1.41/$1


094.3558
10
Stars of Bluegrass
10/1
Van Dyke D
Lerner Andrew


97
42.27
1.33/$1


093.6833
8
St Helena
10/1
Gutierrez M
Puype Mike


128
27.34
1.41/$1


092.6664
3
Renegade Princess
20/1
Maldonado E A
Eurton Peter


128
27.34
1.41/$1


091.2711
1
Sideways Suances
12/1
Baze T
Mullins Jeff
T
128
27.34
1.41/$1


091.2597
5
Steinway(b+)
20/1
Pereira T J
Hernandez. Jr. Jose


128
27.34
1.41/$1


000.0000
11
Supernova Wildcat
1/5
No Rider Yet



169
31.36
0.95/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 4.66/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 After Midnight
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]BestFinish

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 9
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Heat and claim the NBA championship in Game 5 on Wednesday Night. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Los Angeles -7.5 and moved to -7.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, which could end with a hoisting of the championship trophy as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to finish off the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers held off the Heat 102-96 in Game 4 Tuesday night to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and move to the brink of the title. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite for Game 5 and bounced to -7 a couple of times, including late Wednesday night.

The total opened at 216.5 and spent a few hours at 217 Wednesday before dropping to 216.

NBA public betting

Early betting splits at FanDuel indicate customers at least think the Heat will cover the number in Game 5. While ticket count is two-way, with a lean toward Miami at 54 percent, 82 percent of money was on the Heat through Wednesday night.

The total is very much seeing two-way action, with 59 percent of tickets on the Over, but money split right down the middle through Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

709MIAMI -710 LA LAKERS
MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 709-710
October 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.767
LA Lakers
131.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (57 - 35) vs. LA LAKERS (67 - 23) - 10/9/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Friday, October 9

Trend Report

Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)

Line Movements

Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.

The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000

Game 4 Recap

The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).

Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.

The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.

Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.

Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96

While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U

Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.

The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.

The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U

It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.

Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.

King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.

Fun Fact

The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.

Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.

The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.

Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 933-934
October 9, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 17.577
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.570
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 9

Best-of-5 series

New York vs Tampa Bay (2-2) (@ San Diego)
Cole is 5-0, 1.85 in his last five starts; he is pitching on 3 days’ rest here.
— New York is 10-4 in his starts, 4-2 on the road.
— His last four starts all went over; NY scored 45 runs in those games.
— He is 8-4, 2.75 in 12 postseason starts.
— Cole is 1-3, 4.13 in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— New York scored 45 runs in their first six playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 15-20 on the road this season.
— Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.

They say Glasnow is starting, but on two days’ rest; he threw 93 pitches Tuesday- chances are this is a bullpen game.
— Rays won last ten times Glasnow started.
— Glasnow gave up four runs in five IP (93 PT) vs New York Tuesday.
— Don’t think rest of his stats are relevant; hard to believe they’d risk his health by throwing him for very long on two days’ rest.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its last ten games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 22-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-6 in their last 15 games.

— Tampa Bay won 10 of 14 games with New York this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 9

Trend Report

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (37 - 29) vs. TAMPA BAY (44 - 22) - 7:10 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 10-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 44-44 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 44-22 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-13 (+17.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 17-6 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GLASNOW is 21-6 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 10-4 (+7.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 3-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.115.
His team's record is 6-4 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.6 units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GLASNOW is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.295.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

933NY YANKEES -934 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 8-16 SU (-11.8 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: NY Yankees/Tampa Bay Under 7 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday October 9, 2020

10/09 06:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET

NBA (709) MIAMI HEAT VS (710) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Take: OVER the TOTAL

Reason: The Lakers are one game away from the NBA Championship. However, Jimmy Butler and the rest of the Heat will make it as difficult as possible for that to happen, at least today. Butler has basically taken this team on his shoulders with injuries to center Bam Adebayo and point guard Goran Dragic. Abedayo likely will play today while Dragic is doubtful with a foot injury. The Heat covered game four, albeit within the last minute of the game. I expect the Heat to stay within striking distance of the line here tonight and do what they did in game four. Furthermore, I like this game to go over the total. Your free play is on the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: NY YANKEES/TAMPA BAY UNDER the total of 7½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U Friday's Free Selection: Yankees/Rays under 7 1/2 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins Roz's FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2020
Free Pick
305. Lou/Ga Tech OVER 64.5 (4 PT / 7 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports Friday's Free Play: New York Yankees - 145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the UL-Monroe Warhawks +19 over Liberty Saturday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play FRIDAY, October 9, 2020
MLB
933. Yankees -1.50 (4:10 PT / 7:10 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Friday Selection Is

Miami/Los Angeles OVER 111 First Half Total

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Friday : NY YANKEES/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 7½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Friday

NY Yankees/Tampa Bay under 7'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports Friday's Free Pick: NY Yankees - 150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: NY Yankees/Tampa Bay under 7'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call Friday's Free Play: New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays under 7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Friday: TAMPA BAY/NY YANKEES UNDER the total of 7½ runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

High Stakes Syndicate Free Selection for Friday: New York Yankees - 150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports

Free Selection: FRI

SD PADRES

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for FRIDAY is on the

LA DODGERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hollywood Anthony

Your FRIDAY Free Play from Hollywood Anthony

DODGERS/PADRES OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service

MLB Yankees -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Spot Player

NBA Lakers -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Rank Sports Picks

CFB Louisville -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks

NBA Miami +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Picks

MLB Rays over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn Oct 09 '20, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Louisville vs Georgia Tech
Play on: Georgia Tech +5½ -110 at sportsbook

1* Free Play on Georgia Tech +5½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Oct 09 '20, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Louisville vs Georgia Tech
Play on: Georgia Tech +5½ -110 at sportsbook

1* on Georgia Tech +5½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins Oct 09 '20, 7:00 PM in 34m
NCAA-F | Louisville vs Georgia Tech
Play on: UNDER 65½ -110

1 Dimer on Louisville vs Georgia Tech under 65½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru Oct 09 '20, 7:10 PM in 44m
MLB | NYY vs TAM
Play on: UNDER 7½ -110

Free Total Annihilator On Yankees vs Rays under 7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns Oct 09 '20, 7:10 PM in 44m
MLB | Yankees vs Rays
Play on: Rays +1½ -120 at Bovada

We have yet to see a 1-run game in this series. However, with the stakes higher than ever, I won't be surprised if we see a "close one." That said, getting an extra +1.5 runs, for nearly a pick'em price, sounds pretty good. While Cole is indeed tough, Glasnow can be pretty good, too. Yes, Glasnow goes on short rest but he's got Snell and the rest of the Rays waiting, if needed. Remember, the Rays were the better team all season. Consider grabbing the extra +1.5 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers Oct 09 '20, 9:00 PM in 2h
NBA | Heat vs Lakers
Play on: UNDER 216½ -108

The set-up: Game 4 was low-scoring and I think Game 5 also sets up as a defensive affair. LA's role players will be nervous here as they try to close out Miami and win the title. On the flip-side, clearly the Heat will be throwing everything they have at the Lakers on the defensive end to try and claw their way out of this 3-1 deficit.
The pick: The "under" has hit in six of these teams last eight vs. each other and in seven of LA's last 11 after holding an opponent to 99 points or less in a victory in its previous outing. Consider the "under" in Game 5.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the UNDER Lakers/Heat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

ALDS Pick & Horses 10/9

100* Yankees -155