Monday 10/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis October 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park begins the week with an 11-race card. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

4-Take The Deal (8-1)-Comes off a good effort in Wbsb debut and was off 3 weeks. Beat a few of these in last and will look for a big try at a solid price tonight.
5-Legal Bettor (10-1)-Stepped up in last and cashed a 3rd place check. Best to not overlook, did race the 2nd half in
54.2 and has 11 wins in 60 starts at Mohawk.
8-Allstar Seelster (5/2)-Winner of 2 straight since being claimed by Barrington and last start was versus many from this crew. Does best work by blasting out to get the top and there isn't much gate speed in this race.

Race 5

3-Superlative (7/2)-Has been cashing checks facing tougher and this could be a spot to take a picture. This mare can get sucked around and use one nice brush to roll by late.
4-Highland Dynamite (8-1)-Tossing last from the 9-hole and fits with this crew. Won at this level in 1st start after the claim on 9/22. The Fine barn has been doing well and this mare looks like a player.
8-Steuben Hanover (3-1)-Takes a big drop and now returns to the level of a previous win on 8/11. Comes off a break and that has been an issue. Should be a factor if ready to give a top effort.

Race 6

2-Dreamy Fella (7/2)-Makes 3rd start since the Auciello claim and should compete with this group. Will use but won't put all my eggs in this basket, is 1-23 in 2020 and only 4-44 since 1/1/19.
3-Nocturnal Bluechip (5/2)-Drops again looking for a win and this time isn't off over 2 weeks between starts. Henry can make an early move and should be a big threat if all systems are go.
4-Mach Steady (8-1)-McClure sticks and steers for the 2nd time on this tough to figure 6-year-old. Drops and should be in play. Could be used in gimmicks but keep an eye on the board in a race without a standout.
6-Cliffhanger (5-1)-Moreau trainee has battled better but is only 2-25 this year. There have not been any gaps in lines over the last 2 starts and that hasn't happened for a while. Four-year-old has 9 wins in 47 start at Wbsb and might be a square price.

Race 7

2-Only Take Cash (7/2)-Drops into a better spot. Has been facing Preferred company and this mare hasn't been firing on all cylinders this year. Winner of >$550k in 2019 can cash the biggest check here and Henry should be able to work a good trip.
3-Im The Muscle (6-1)-Steps up after a nice win from post 10 racing the back half in 56.1. Winner of 4 of 14 at Wbsb has beaten similar here. Looks like a player, Roy can be aggressive with this post draw and could take a picture at a square price.

0.20 Early Pick 4

4,5,8/3,4,8/2,3,4,6/2,3
Total Bet=$14.40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#1 Honey Beest
Second-best behind a runaway winner last time out, and that local debut suggests that she might be a good fit right back with this relatively soft bunch.


#2 Zeyna
Debuter won't need to be much in a very weak spot for the level, and the barn has been having a good go of things locally.


#6 Iamthebesttoo
Tends to flash a bit of chasing pace and then go the wrong way, but she may be able to stick around for an underneath piece.


Race Summary
Honey Beest looks like she might be the right one to try and beat Zeyna, as she has an experience edge and proved a good fit with the locals last out.


Mountaineer - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 Hello My Halo
Taking a guess here after two dismal starts with better, and she's getting some big class relief while dropping back in with maidens after trying allowance company last out.


#7 Dilemma
Has some pace to get in the mix in the early going, and she didn't miss by much in her first try at the level. The one to beat at a shorter price this time around.


#3 Astromelia
Woke up a bit last time out when trying similar, and she showed enough tactical pace that day to suggest she'll be close with these early.


Race Summary
Hello My Halo has some chance to wake up in a hurry on the drop into the claiming ranks for the first time, and the price should be right in a race where Dilemma and Astromelia should take plenty of cash .


Mountaineer - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#7 Reds Best
Reluctantly taking a 20-start maiden here, as there are some back dirt routes that fit with what the likely chalk can offer, and he steps up off a good effort from close range last out at Belterra


#1 Swingabigstick
No doubt the one to beat after showing the way to deep stretch last time out, and he's sure to have a go for it from the fence again tonight.


#5 Hartford Thomas
Showed nothing in the dirt debut before turning in an improved, if even, effort last out on the Kentucky Downs turf. Think he's worth another look underneath with this kind.


Race Summary
Reds Best has had more than his share of chances, but his last one was pretty solid with cheaper, and there isn't a whole lot in here to beat outside of the rail runner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Indiana Grand - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#3 Polo Art
Tired in his first of the year after winning his last three of 2019; has the speed to get to the lead and will be tough to catch.


#5 Good Good
Cuts back in distance can bring some serious late heat to the mix here; classier than most.


#8 Steel Shot
Rallied well and finished second last out and has been in some good races here; serious threat.


Race Summary
Polo Art has impressive early foot and lead the pack in this spot; likely to show considerable improvement in his second start off a significant layoff.


Indiana Grand - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#2 Zipaway
Tested much better last time and but has won two of his last four and was an easy winner on turf two back; can return to top form here.


#7 Ace Destroyer
Tried the turf after several good dirt efforts; tried allowance runners on turf at Churchill but is a much softer spot today.


#8 Fiftyshadesograyce
Won on the turf vs. a good group on turf at Canterbury two races back and can get a good trip from the outside.


Race Summary
Zipaway was in tough last time and should welcome this class drop; has good speed and can benefit from the inside trip.


Indiana Grand - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Mick's Star
Tired from early efforts at Kentucky Downs and should like the change in venue; Amoss is still hitting at 25 percent at this track.


#6 Mo Hawk
Set the pace and just missed last time out and seems to have found his level; tried much tougher on occasion and fits well for this price.


#10 Space Mountain
Was up just in time to beat Mo Hawk last time and closes very well when he fires; could get an ideal pace setup.


Race Summary
Mick's Star has the speed to be in the hunt throughout and should be able to dig in at this level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs



Indiana Downs - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)



Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:05P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (INDIANA BRED LIFETIME CONDITIONAL CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ONLY REWARD'S: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. TWISTED EMOTIONS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CAFE MISCHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TROPHY DOLL (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CUBBIE BEAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.



2

ONLY REWARD'S

5/2


4/1




1

TWISTED EMOTIONS

6/5


8/1




5

CAFE MISCHIEF

10/1


8/1




7

TROPHY DOLL (IRE)

6/1


8/1




4

CUBBIE BEAR

8/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

MAJESTIC CLIMB

3


6/1

Front-runner

61


61


73.8


56.8


47.8




5

CAFE MISCHIEF

5


10/1

Front-runner

68


55


65.0


54.0


45.5




7

TROPHY DOLL (IRE)

7


6/1

Front-runner

83


83


0.0


0.0


0.0




2

ONLY REWARD'S

2


5/2

Stalker

71


71


66.0


69.4


64.9




1

TWISTED EMOTIONS

1


6/5

Stalker

70


68


65.8


62.2


56.2




4

CUBBIE BEAR

4


8/1

Stalker

68


70


60.6


56.2


47.7




6

SONG AND A KISS

6


30/1

Stalker

56


68


56.4


52.0


40.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass



Grants Pass - Race 8

$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta .50 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)



Claiming $3,200 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $5,700 • Post: 7:30P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FLYING HOME is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLYING HOME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NOBLE GIRL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18.



7

FLYING HOME

7/2


2/1




8

NOBLE GIRL

5/1


9/2
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




7

FLYING HOME

7


7/2

Front-runner

67


59


70.6


60.2


57.7




8

NOBLE GIRL

8


5/1

Alternator/Front-runner

72


61


65.0


47.4


39.4




5

LEAD ACTRESS

5


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

71


69


41.9


51.8


42.8




9

SUNSET CITY

9


8/1

Alternator/Stalker

65


55


0.0


48.6


40.6




1

GIRLS GONE GOLD

1


9/2

Trailer

57


48


0.0


45.0


31.5




10

PENNY JOE

10


8/1

Alternator/Trailer

46


50


0.0


49.4


38.4




3

MONCHICHI

3


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

51


48


59.5


40.6


25.1




2

LOVE U L C

2


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

60


52


0.0


44.2


29.7




4

UNBRIDLED BIRDIE

4


8/1

Alternator/Non-contender

52


44


0.0


42.8


29.8




6

DELTA BOUND

6


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

65


42


0.0


42.8


28.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 55

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD TRAINERS STABLED ON THE GROUNDS WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE AT THE MEET AS OF OCTOBER 11, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 7 SHE'S NOT BLUFFING 5/2




# 6 FRENCH CRULLER 8/5




# 4 ALL ABOUT BLEU 5/1




SHE'S NOT BLUFFING looks quite good to best this field. May best this group of horses here, showing very strong numbers of late. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this filly a solid shot. Ran a solid last race. FRENCH CRULLER - Could provide positive gains based on strong recent speed figures with an average of 61. Had one of the best speed figs of this group in her last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,700 Class Rating: 84

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 RIDE INTO THE SKY (ML=8/1)
#3 BEAUTIFUL GAME (ML=3/1)


RIDE INTO THE SKY - You'll be making money right and left by turning your racing money onto this rider/trainer combination. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a sharp outing last time around the track within the last month or so. BEAUTIFUL GAME - You always have to be on the watch for bankroll building jockey/trainer teams; we have an instance right here. Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Thistledown. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Zielinski. Better beware of this angle. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per start (EPS) in here. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DOCTOR LEE (ML=5/2), #6 GOT GRIT (ML=7/2), #5 CEE R BEE (ML=6/1),

DOCTOR LEE - Had to give me much more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. September 23rd is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. GOT GRIT - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled from time to time. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's event. CEE R BEE - 79/73/63, are the decreasing speed figs for this vulnerable equine.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BEAUTIFUL GAME - This gelding's superior last speed number of 84, against these horses, makes him the overwhelming choice.







STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 RIDE INTO THE SKY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,3]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6900 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 GRIN N' BEAR 8/5




# 6 ASONGFORYOU 3/1




# 3 COWBOY RUSTY 7/2




GRIN N' BEAR looks like the bet in here. Erfle has this gelding travelling well and is a formidable pick based on the solid Speed Figures garnered in sprint races lately. Will most likely compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group of animals. Must be carefully examined for this event if only for the decent Equibase speed fig put up in the last affair. ASONGFORYOU - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field of horses. The Equibase speed fig of 65 from his most recent race looks quite good in here. COWBOY RUSTY - Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#9 SAMADI SKY (ML=7/2)
#7 HIDE THE CANDY (ML=2/1)
#6 TRUE WISDOM (ML=3/1)


SAMADI SKY - This entrant could be tough today, especially since Haddock rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good signal. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this race. HIDE THE CANDY - I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this colt is ready to run today. Ran last time out against much better horses at Penn National. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. This thoroughbred likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. TRUE WISDOM - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be beneficial. Aboard this entrant on October 7th and Laprida is back again in the irons in this race. Good return on investment for this jock and handler duo. Wyner brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this live gelding. In his last race, this gelding showed good zip then fell back before finishing nicely.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NAVY COMMANDER (ML=5/2),

NAVY COMMANDER - Difficult to bet on any less than sharp equine in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.

https://www.trackmaster.com/images/tophat.jpgGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HIDE THE CANDY - This colt has the top last speed figure at Penn National. Must be considered in your speculating.








STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #9 SAMADI SKY to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though



EXACTA WAGERS:

9 with [6,7]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [6,7,9] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[6,7,9] with [6,7,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 6 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.

NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 6 Injuries


Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday’s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won’t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would’ve been a short favorite.

Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.

Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won’t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.

Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.


Monday, Oct. 19

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also “over” first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS

Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 “over” run since late in 2018.

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

103KANSAS CITY -104 BUFFALO
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo

Game 277-278
October 19, 2020 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.735
Buffalo
135.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
Even
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Dallas

Game 275-276
October 19, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
126.451
Dallas
128.735
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Monday, October 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.

— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.

— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Dallas (2-3)
— Third straight week on road for Arizona; they’re 2-1 on road so far.
— Arizona allowed 26-31 points in its losses; 20-15-10 in its wins.
— Cardinals have only one takeaway (-4) in their last three games.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— NFC West squads are 11-6 outside the divisional, 2-1 as underdogs.

— Dalton makes his first start for Dallas; he was 70-61-2 as a starter for the Bengals, over his nine years in Cincinnati.
— Cowboys had 440+ passing yards three weeks in row before last week- they’re averaging 76.2 snaps/game, most in NFL- will they keep up that pace?
— Last four games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34 points.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division, 0-8 at home.

— Home side won 13 of last 15 series games.
— Cardinals lost four of last five visits here; they won 28-17 last time they played here, in 2014.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

Trend Report

Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Through no fault of their own, the Buffalo Bills are on that rare Tuesday-Monday turn around this week as they look for a much better showing then they had in Tennessee last week.

But even with the disjointed nature of their schedule the past few weeks, the Bills still get a Tuesday-Monday break between games here, compared to the Sunday-Thursday break they would have had had this game gone on normally as scheduled on a Thursday night.

Can't complain too much about that when the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL

The Chiefs have posted a 2-0 record on the road as they pay a visit to the Bills on Monday Night. (AP)

Spread: Kansas -4.5
Money-Line: Kansas City -220, Buffalo +190
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 9)
Defense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 407.2 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 382.8 (Rank 20)

Buffalo

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-0-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.8 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 22)
Offense YPG: 401.8 (Rank 5)
Defense YPG: 371.8 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

The total is quite interesting here as both teams are known for their offensive play this year, but it's both defenses that are coming off efforts that saw opponents hang 40 or more on them.

The Chiefs defense is to blame for most of those points, but you can't hang the Bills defense completely out to dry after that effort in Tennessee given how many short fields they had to deal with. But Buffalo opponents have still averaged 31.25 points per game over their last four, as suspect defense in Buffalo is starting to look like it might be a trend.

Yet, I think the best way to look at this game is through the eyes of both defenses wanting to rebound after rough outings, and both offenses looking to take much better care of the ball. Kansas City isn't going to want to bleed their defense to death with them losing the time of possession battle in a big way again, and sustaining, and lengthening drives when need be may be an offensive philosophy we see from KC a bit more here.

They know they can connect on the "Home Run" play if need be, we as bettors know that, but that's three out of four games the Chiefs have been outgained in total yardage now, largely because they are getting smokes in the time of possession battle.

Tennessee may not have had the greatest success running on Buffalo, but the weakness of this suspect defense is in stopping the run and I think the Bills went overboard in trying to protect it against the Titans. They'll loosen up a bit there and if KC commits to the running game early (in an effort to give rest to their defense), they'll find enough success to shorten a game with a total of 57.5 rather quickly.

At the same time, Buffalo's going to want to run the ball and control time of possession as much as they can, because that's what everyone seems to believe is the best path to success against the Chiefs, and rightfully so. KC's defense has seen what works in slowing down quarterback Josh Allen from the zone looks Tennessee gave them on Tuesday, and that means that running lanes and controlling the time of possession battle will be there for the taking for Buffalo's offense.

Expecting both teams to run the ball more (for their varying reasons), along with these defenses tightening things up after rough outings in a measuring stick type game – at least for the Bills – the 'under' is the way to look here in my opinion.

Buffalo can never feel comfortable about their chances of pulling off the upset win in a shootout-type contest, and it's still a road game for the Chiefs who know the recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and play good defense. Scoring may be up this year, but this Chiefs team still loves to play that conservative style on the road as they are 0-5 O/U in their last five road games, part of which includes a 1-4 O/U run when listed as a road favorite.

If Buffalo's going to pull off the upset here, they will need to likely keep KC to 24 or less and even then it will be close. Buffalo's yet to cash an 'under' ticket this year against the closing line, and that's probably not a true reflection of where this team's O/U record will end up by the end of the year.

But the belief this Bills defense will continue to trend in the wrong direction with Mahomes and company in town isn't a hard one to get behind, and the number's probably a shade higher then it should be as is usually the case with Chiefs games in the big picture as well.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
Nov. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

Along the lines of thinking that both defenses will rebound to a degree after rough outings helps an 'under' look, it's a perspective that makes it tough to hone in on a side.

The fact that both sides are coming off losses, it makes a strong bounce back spot argument in both directions, and a Chiefs win that stays inside this current spread would befit this potential playoff preview both franchises hope it may be.

In the end, taking those points at home with a Buffalo team that's looking to prove way more here is rather tempting, but questions remain about Buffalo even being a team ready to take that next step. Much easier to sit on the sidelines in that regard here and see how it plays out.

KC might be so frustrated they lost last week – a division game no less – that they look to hang it on someone, and it just so happens to be the Bills and their defense that's giving up 31+/game that's up next.

I do think it is more likely to be close throughout, but the number you get on the spread here as a great chance to actually matter and it's just sticking with the total selection for me.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

OL Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Questionable
RB Le'Veon Bell: Acquired - Out
FB Anthony Sherman: COVID-19 - Out
WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
G Kelechi Osemele: Knee - Out

Buffalo

WR John Brown: Knee - Probable
RB Zack Moss: Toe - Probable
CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
G Quinton Spain: Foot - Questionable
LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Dawson Knox: Calf - Out
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Out

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Life without Dak Prescott officially takes hold for the Dallas Cowboys this week, as Andy Dalton takes this NFC East-leading team into MNF looking to cover their first point spread of the season. An explosive offense with a defense that only knows how to give up explosive plays is clearly not the recipe for point spread success in Dallas, and it will be interesting to see how much of a play-calling change the Cowboys implement knowing this is now Dalton's team.

But helping the Cowboys defense stay off the field as much as possible can go a long way with this team. Dallas still is going to struggle to slow down people on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be this way of allowing 30+ like they have the past four weeks.

Obviously trying to slow down a guy like Kyler Murray and what Arizona brings to the table isn't the best place to start for Dallas, but they've got to start somewhere. The Cardinals enter this game 0-5 O/U this year as they typically don't see both sides score 30+ in a game like the Cowboys have.

You've got a winless ATS team that only knows how to play games with 70+ points scored against a team that's yet to cash an 'over' ticket. What's going to give?

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Arizona Cardinals will be playing their third straight road game on Monday when they meet the Cowboys from Arlington. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Arizona -1.5
Money-Line: Arizona -120, Dallas +100
Total: 55

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 16)
Defense PPG: 20.4 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 395.4 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 10)

Dallas

Overall: 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Home: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.6 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 36.0 (Rank 32)
Offense YPG: 488.0 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 404.4 (Rank 27)

Handicapping the Total

Arizona's 'under' run is something I would side with getting snapped sooner rather than later, and this does appear to be the no-brainer opponent to look at an Arizona 'over' spot with how bad the Cowboys defense has been.

Yet, you've got to believe that the Dallas defense can't continue to be this inept every week out on the field, and it's just a bunch of other little things that will likely have me passing on this total in the end. I know I wouldn't want any part of the 'under', but it still doesn't feel like the best play to make in this game.

I don't know if Arizona's 0-5 O/U run has much to do with it, or the fact that the Cardinals have the 4th-best third down conversion rate on defense (opponents only convert third downs 35.59% of time vs Arizona) that I think we might be forced to see the Dallas attack slow down as well.

The Cowboys know they can't keep hanging their defense out to dry, and they might already be leaning towards running the ball more with a backup QB in, and one of the best RB's in the game beside him.

With Arizona's defense understanding how to get off the field when they get the chance too, I'm not sure we see this Dallas attack go up and down the field like they have been. Nor do I think Dallas really wants that for their defense to keep getting shredded all the way back.

Recent Cowboys games may not suggest it, but you still need a lot to go smoothly to cash an 'over' 55 ticket, as it's just as fine to pass here.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Sept. 25, 2017 - Dallas 28 at Arizona 17, Cowboys -3, Under 46
Nov. 2, 2014 - Arizona 28 at Dallas 17, Cardinals -1.5, Push 45

Handicapping the Side

The side is the more interesting handicap in that the Cowboys are too talented on offense to remain without an ATS win for long, but how confident can you be trusting them in Andy Dalton's first start? Dalton does have years of starting experience in this league so there is that working for him, but he's got a much different skill set than Prescott, and how to utilize his skills the best is still going to be a work in progress.

From the Arizona side of things, this could be a second ATS win in a row, but it's also their third straight road game. Going from Carolina to New York to Dallas the past three weeks is far from a favorable play-on spot for any team, but again, all we've seen from this Dallas defense this year is them casually retreating down the field as the scoreboard puts up multiples of six on them. There is definitely an argument there for Arizona.

But as road chalk that's seen the line basically move against them all week, I really want nothing to do with Arizona here. In fact, the third straight road game against a team you know is in a great spot to rally around themselves given how their season has gone really turns into an awful spot for the Cardinals when they've also got a division showdown with the Seattle Seahawks on deck.

Dalton may not be the best option, but he's a known commodity at this point in his career. He's also working with more weapons around him than he ever had in Cincinnati, so he's not going to be asked to carry this team, just lead them. That's the better role for him with this Cowboys team right now, and he's just got to take care of the football.

Defensively, I'll put faith in the idea that the Cowboys defense has to improve simply because I don't think they can get any worse. The Cowboys are probably owed a turnover or two for all that's gone wrong in their season so far, as a -8 turnover differential this year is worst in the league and one that should see some positive regression eventually.

Arizona has had at least one turnover in every game so far this season, so it's not like their won't be opportunities for this Cowboys defense to capitalize.

But Dallas as a home dog, when the Cowboys probably deserve at least a little bit of sympathy for what they roller coaster of a season they've already had to deal with is something I don't think I can pass up in this spot. Dalton could easily end up burning more units than he earns in his new gig, but I'll save those fade spots when the Cowboys start laying some significant chalk again down the line after grabbing a few wins.

That winning streak starts for the Cowboys with this game against a road weary Cardinals team that's got a potential lookahead spot up next. Great spot for a home dog to rise up and get this difficult 2020 campaign somewhat back on track.

Key Injuries

Arizona

LB Dennis Gardeck: Foot - Questionable
OT D.J. Humphries: Back - Questionable
LB Devon Kennard: Calf - Questionable
DE Chandler Jones: Biceps - Out
OL J.R. Sweezy: Elbow - Out
LB Kylie Fitts: Hamstring - Out
DT Rashard Lawrence: Calf - Out

Dallas

LB Leighton Vander Esch: Collarbone - Probable
QB Dak Prescott: Ankle - Out
DT Trysten Hill: Knee - Out
T Tyron Smith: Neck - Out

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cowboys -1 -109 at GTBets

PICK - Cowboys -1
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 276
I believe we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys at basically a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. Dallas is a very public team, but it feels like the public is on Arizona in this game. Some of that is Cowboy backers have had enough, as Dallas comes in 0-5 ATS. They also just lost starting quarterback Dak Prescott.
Not exactly the same faith in this team with Andy Dalton under center as Prescott. I actually think this is going to work out for the Cowboys. Dalton never quite reached the hype around him when he was young and the Bengals were always good but not great with him. The guy is still a very serviceable QB.
It's not like he's taking over the Jets, where he's got nothing to work with. I would argue this is the best set of skill position players he's ever had. The only real concern is the offensive line, as they have lost 3 starters in left tackle Tyron Smith, right tackle La'el Collins and center Joe Looney.
While I could see the o-line really hindering this team down the road, I don't think it will be an issue against Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are giving up 156 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry vs the run this season. Nothing speaks to how bad they are than the 117 rushing yards they allowed to Washington. The "Football Team" ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing at 82.2 ypg.
I'm not going to sit here and talk up the Dallas defense. It's not great. However, I do feel like it will benefit from a more balanced offense that plays a little more for possession. If they can just find a way to keep Murray in the pocket, they might surprise some people in this game. The effort will definitely be there (everyone has something to prove now that Dak is gone). Give me the Cowboys -1!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cowboys +1 -110 at William Hill

1* on Cowboys +1 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -110 at YouWager

Free Pick on Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -109 at GTBets

Cardinals -1 (or -105)
Andy Dalton is a more than capable backup quarterback, but the Cowboys Monday Night matchup against the Cardinals will not be an ideal situation for him to succeed. While the Cowboys are known for their talented offensive line, they are missing Tyron Smith, La’El Collins, Joe Looney, and Cameron Erving to injury.
He won’t be able to rely on the Cowboys defense to put them in position to win, as they have allowed more points per game than any other team in the league.
Arizona’s defense is top 10 in points allowed per game, sacks per game, and sack percentage. If Dallas falls behind early and is forced to throw the ball the Cardinals defense will be able pin their ears back and get after Dalton.
The Cardinals have had ups and downs early in the year, but they have a handful of players who are dangerous playmakers in space. They should be able to take advantage of a porous Cowboys defense and put points on the board.
Take the Cardinals to come out on top in Jerry World.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Monday 5* FREE NFL Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -109 at pinnacle

Monday NFL Free play. My selection is on Arizona over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
The Cardinals haven't lived up to lofty preseason expectations so far but still check in with a 3-2 record and they're well-positioned to start gaining some real positive momentum against the Dak-less Cowboys here. I like the upside the Cards bring to the table off last week's drubbing of the lowly Jets. QB Kyler Murray should be comfortable playing here at Jerry World from appearing here during his college days at Oklahoma. He draws a favorable matchup against a very beatable and banged-up Cowboys defense. The loss of Chandler Jones certainly hurts the Cards defense but it has been factored into this line as far as I'm concerned. I believe the case could be made that Arizona should be a field goal road favorite here but as usual, the Cowboys will draw plenty of 'public' money, especially at a near pk'em price. Take Arizona (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Kansas City/Buffalo Under 3½ Field Goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: KANSAS CITY/BUFFALO UNDER the total of 56½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins Roz's MONDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2020
Free Pick
NFL
277. Kan/Buf OVER 57.5 (2 PT / 5 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the Buffalo Bills Under 1½ Field Goals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play MONDAY, October 19, 2020
NFL
277. Chiefs -5 (2 PT / 5 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection Is

Arizona/Dallas UNDER 54½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Monday

Arizona -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Monday free play is the Over in the Cardinals-Cowboys.

Not a whole lot of reasons to convince me to look for a defensive battle, as Dallas is among the best in the NFL in scoring and among the worst in the NFL in stopping opponents from scoring.

The Cowboys are averaging over 32 points per game while they are allowing 36 points per game. Not surprisingly, each of the Cowboys last 4 games this season have all played Over the posted price.

The Cardinals have played all 5 of their games to date Under the posted, but I expect that streak to end tonight as the dangerous Kyler Murray has a field day against the leaky Cowboys defense.

Plenty of points up on the scoreboard tonight.

Arizona-Dallas Over the total.

4* ARIZONA-DALLAS OVER